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The Favorites - NFL Week 13 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:24
Speaker 1: I am Chat Melman, Chief content officer of the Action Network.
1:28
Speaker 1: We are starting off week thirteen in the NFL post Thanksgiving.
1:34
Speaker 1: I am joined as I am in every episode by
1:37
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional
1:42
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Hello, swim in Chat out you doing, buddy.
1:50
Speaker 1: We're going to speak in English accents for the entire
1:52
Speaker 1: show in honor of the US playing Iran in the
1:56
Speaker 1: World Cup, because football is in English game. We tied
2:02
Speaker 1: England over Thanksgiving? Simon, how did that make you feel
2:06
Speaker 1: as a citizen of both countries? As a bridge made
2:10
Speaker 1: me feel properly embarrassed as an American. Made me feel
2:13
Speaker 1: pretty proud to see the USA. I don't know, not
2:16
Speaker 1: not dominated game, but they kind of did right. It
2:18
Speaker 1: felt like they took a table in that whole match. Again,
2:21
Speaker 1: nothing surprising here. America is very big. England's a little
2:25
Speaker 1: island that somehow conquered the world. At one point. It
2:29
Speaker 1: we should beat them, but yeah, my household was definitely
2:31
Speaker 1: split I would say, uh, a lot of curse were
2:34
Speaker 1: thrown around early on in that match, but it is fun. Again,
2:40
Speaker 1: as as a fan of sports, you only get it
2:44
Speaker 1: every four years, Chad, like you said, the World Cups
2:45
Speaker 1: every four years. So having a unique experience of having
2:49
Speaker 1: the World Cup with Thanksgiving it was interesting. I don't
2:53
Speaker 1: know if I like it, but it was definitely interesting.
2:56
Speaker 1: I preferred in the summer just because it's something else
2:58
Speaker 1: to do. But listen, it's a great event. And by
3:01
Speaker 1: the way, welcome to everybody who's listening on AMP Quick Recap.
3:04
Speaker 1: On week twelve, before we get to week third team,
3:07
Speaker 1: we were two and three in the contest. We lost
3:09
Speaker 1: the foxhold Saints and plus nine and a half. Simon says,
3:12
Speaker 1: was Jack's plus four we won that. The exact decision
3:16
Speaker 1: was Atlanta plus four and a half lost that. Since
3:19
Speaker 1: the minus one and a half was the Big Balls
3:22
Speaker 1: scoot roulette, you had the Paths plus three you lost,
3:25
Speaker 1: I had since minus one and a half I won
3:28
Speaker 1: our final five Jags plus three and a half, Jets
3:31
Speaker 1: minus six and a half, Atlanta four and a half,
3:33
Speaker 1: Seattle three and a half, Saints nine and a half
3:36
Speaker 1: Atlanta Saints fucking excruciating ex screw she aiding, just like
3:46
Speaker 1: the Saints especially look that game exactly as we thought
3:49
Speaker 1: it would go. We thought the Saints would have a
3:51
Speaker 1: chance to keep it close, certainly within the nine and
3:54
Speaker 1: a half points. Alvin Camara fumble on the one yard
3:58
Speaker 1: line trying to get into the into the end zone,
4:02
Speaker 1: turnover on downs with two minutes left, pick that the
4:06
Speaker 1: Saints returned to the five yard line, only to have
4:08
Speaker 1: it nullified by illegal hands right the same defensive back
4:13
Speaker 1: who committed a flagrant personal foul to put the fort
4:18
Speaker 1: in scoring position to score the field goal to put
4:21
Speaker 1: them up thirteen nothing. It was terrible. It was fucking terrible,
4:26
Speaker 1: along with Seattle not being able to stop Josh Jacobs
4:30
Speaker 1: and having every chance to cover that game, and then
4:32
Speaker 1: Atlanta that turnover at the end with the tip ball,
4:36
Speaker 1: when you're on the goal line and you have been
4:39
Speaker 1: going down the field running the ball with one of
4:42
Speaker 1: the most dynamic players in Cordell Patterson, and you decided
4:45
Speaker 1: to put it in Marcus Mariota's hands. Simon Simon, it
4:50
Speaker 1: makes me forget about the fact we didn't get jagged.
4:53
Speaker 1: We got lucky in that one, and that the Cardinals,
4:56
Speaker 1: who we both had at plus one, at plus three
4:58
Speaker 1: or plus four or whatever. We also lucky with that one,
5:01
Speaker 1: but fuck, it was a brutal day. It was brutal. No,
5:05
Speaker 1: I mean, that's just gambling. It makes you appreciate the
5:07
Speaker 1: good weeks. Brother, there, we're two thirds the way done,
5:09
Speaker 1: so it's a little sad, and we have one third
5:11
Speaker 1: of the season left. But I look at it as, yeah,
5:14
Speaker 1: the bounces just going our away. So I take a
5:17
Speaker 1: little bit the blame of the sense that those are
5:19
Speaker 1: your two babies, the Saints in Atlanta. But I agreed
5:21
Speaker 1: with it. I liked it where you were coming from.
5:22
Speaker 1: They're both good dogs. Where I screwed up was should
5:26
Speaker 1: have taken the Browns. Like I feel like we talked
5:27
Speaker 1: about earlier in the week. We're both on it. And
5:29
Speaker 1: since he yeah, the since he one sucked because I
5:32
Speaker 1: got scared off about a really smart group coming in
5:35
Speaker 1: on them. Did we get lucky on that one? Sure? Alright,
5:38
Speaker 1: Tennessee missed a field goal that game probably should have
5:40
Speaker 1: landed on one that would have been a brute, brutal beat.
5:43
Speaker 1: But the Saints one just irked me the worst of way,
5:46
Speaker 1: because what all this stuff you also said happened where
5:49
Speaker 1: they missed all these opportunities, but the the missed field goal,
5:53
Speaker 1: the kicker stuff just kills me. It's like you have
5:55
Speaker 1: the easiest not the easiest job, but it's it's literally,
5:57
Speaker 1: do your job. Hit a thirty nine yard field goal
6:00
Speaker 1: and we just needed one more field and would we
6:02
Speaker 1: would have covered that number because then it was a
6:03
Speaker 1: thirteen nothing game. So that was one of those where
6:07
Speaker 1: I was hoping we would get to the three and two.
6:09
Speaker 1: I was kind of on the Saints because as soon
6:11
Speaker 1: as that Seahawks game started, like even we talked beforehand,
6:15
Speaker 1: it felt really public. Um. The usually was just going
6:18
Speaker 1: the wrong way, like Geno Smith was throwing picks. Like
6:21
Speaker 1: you said, Jacobs is running. So this week, you know,
6:24
Speaker 1: it feels like a good week to bounce back. There's
6:26
Speaker 1: a lot of good matchups we like. And I talked
6:29
Speaker 1: to you all the time, Jenn. If our worst weeks
6:31
Speaker 1: or two and three, it's a pretty damn good year.
6:34
Speaker 1: So through twelve weeks, we're still at sixty seven percent
6:37
Speaker 1: for the season, still in the money. We need a
6:40
Speaker 1: good week here though, just because we got lucky. Everyone
6:42
Speaker 1: else had a bad week last week. So I only
6:45
Speaker 1: lost a game. I thought we were gonna drop a couple,
6:48
Speaker 1: but the leader only went four and one, three and two,
6:50
Speaker 1: so we're we're in a good spot still. I feel
6:53
Speaker 1: pretty good about the Jags a plus seven fifty to
6:55
Speaker 1: win the a f C South, Like you look at
6:57
Speaker 1: what they have, don't do this, don't even stops speak,
7:00
Speaker 1: and you're gonna drink this team. They still play the
7:02
Speaker 1: Titans twice. I think. I like their schedule. It would
7:05
Speaker 1: be interesting if they somehow did it. But yeah, it's
7:07
Speaker 1: it'd be pretty crazy from the official season. I don't
7:10
Speaker 1: hate it. I don't hate it. All right, It's Week thirteen.
7:13
Speaker 1: Here we go on Thursday night. We have the Buffalo
7:18
Speaker 1: Bills four and a half point favorites over the New
7:21
Speaker 1: England Patriots. Patriots are getting sixty percent of the money
7:26
Speaker 1: this month. This line has moved down from five and
7:29
Speaker 1: a half of the bets on the Bills. We got
7:32
Speaker 1: a pro joe match up here. If I'm leaning one
7:36
Speaker 1: way or the other, I leave. I'd lead New England
7:40
Speaker 1: plus four and a half at home. Short week. It
7:43
Speaker 1: rarely does. It rarely doesn't work out to go into public.
7:45
Speaker 1: But I'll finally give in. I'll jump on the public
7:49
Speaker 1: side for this game. I hate it because I want
7:52
Speaker 1: to take a divisional dog at home, but we are
7:55
Speaker 1: taking into like you won't take your Yeah, I just
8:01
Speaker 1: don't know if the Patriots have done enough to stop
8:05
Speaker 1: with Josh Allen does so well. I've seen them play
8:08
Speaker 1: two running quarterbacks this year. You know, justin fields dead
8:11
Speaker 1: against them, Chad. We we can't just simply throw that out.
8:15
Speaker 1: So that's my fear right now, where it's everything in
8:18
Speaker 1: my body. All the numbers as well, like this number,
8:21
Speaker 1: I make it force. I'm getting value right now. All
8:23
Speaker 1: in the Patriots screams for me to take the Patriots
8:26
Speaker 1: in this game. But there's just something about this Bills
8:29
Speaker 1: team that I think They've had a couple of letdown
8:32
Speaker 1: spots here, but it's been more so about their defense
8:35
Speaker 1: has been letting these teams back in. And I know
8:37
Speaker 1: Mac played incredible against the Vikings, but this is not
8:40
Speaker 1: a good matchup for him against the Bills team that
8:42
Speaker 1: kind of takes away what he likes to do, which
8:44
Speaker 1: is he's a type of style pass or you liked
8:46
Speaker 1: to throw against his own The Bills don't run the
8:48
Speaker 1: zone that often, and I know they looked, you know,
8:51
Speaker 1: human against that Detroit team indoors there. But this is
8:56
Speaker 1: finally going to be back in their element outdoors playing
8:59
Speaker 1: an ugly divisional games. So I'm not gonna make it
9:01
Speaker 1: one of our four because I already know Chad he's
9:04
Speaker 1: doing a smart thing. Like you, you always take divisional
9:06
Speaker 1: home dogs in these spots. It's gonna be good for you.
9:08
Speaker 1: But I just I can't trust his Patriots defense where
9:12
Speaker 1: I've seen them perform very well against bad quarterbacks, but
9:16
Speaker 1: I've seen them getting torched by good quarterbacks, and especially
9:19
Speaker 1: in mobile quarterbacks. Like not saying justin fields all world,
9:23
Speaker 1: that's just such a huge advantage if you're another team
9:25
Speaker 1: has slow linebackers and you're running quarterback, anytime the play
9:29
Speaker 1: breaks down, you can take off. So Josh Allen every
9:33
Speaker 1: week they say his arm has been getting better. Um,
9:35
Speaker 1: you see him as a couple of throws last week.
9:37
Speaker 1: But I do think he's improved. He has improved as
9:39
Speaker 1: the weeks. I've gone a long here. They should have
9:41
Speaker 1: lost that Detroit game. I think in the public's mind
9:43
Speaker 1: they did lose it. So, uh, you know, I'm not
9:47
Speaker 1: gonna overreact to what happened last week, and I'd probably
9:49
Speaker 1: go Buffalo here. All right, Well, we're definitely not gonna
9:52
Speaker 1: be the same side here. Yeah, you're going by the book.
9:57
Speaker 1: I'm going by the book. By the way, I not
10:01
Speaker 1: for nothing. I went by the book with the Lions
10:03
Speaker 1: plus ten and you're like, no way, and the book
10:07
Speaker 1: was right. I'm proud of you for winning that one
10:11
Speaker 1: bet last week. Oh fuck you, motherfucker victory laughs. By
10:16
Speaker 1: the way, Cincinnati, I was all over since you waved
10:18
Speaker 1: me off that because of the fucking wise guys like
10:21
Speaker 1: don't give me this, don't don't do not come after
10:26
Speaker 1: me and try to be sympathetic and be like, oh,
10:28
Speaker 1: I'm a professional guy. I had playing games I liked.
10:32
Speaker 1: You waved me off. That's fine, it happens. We're in
10:34
Speaker 1: a partnership here. I act like you've been there before.
10:38
Speaker 1: Jesus Titans plus five and a half visiting the Eagles.
10:45
Speaker 1: I love the Titans here, um mistake, Yeah, alright, genius,
10:53
Speaker 1: tell me, tell me it's stinks. This Lions stinks. The stinks.
10:58
Speaker 1: The stinks. Why is this not three wise? It is
11:00
Speaker 1: not three and a half. The Titans want to run
11:02
Speaker 1: the ball. The Eagles cannot stop the run bizarro world line,
11:06
Speaker 1: So walk right into the fucking trap chat with the
11:08
Speaker 1: rest of the public. Take the Titans, everyone's going to
11:12
Speaker 1: I wanted to. I immediately was like, yeah, give me six,
11:15
Speaker 1: thank you, and we've seen a drop, which makes you
11:17
Speaker 1: feel great, right if you get the six nights five
11:19
Speaker 1: and a half. But this line stinks the holy hell.
11:22
Speaker 1: I don't know why this isn't closer to three three
11:24
Speaker 1: and a half. That makes more sense, the babe. The
11:28
Speaker 1: book is over valuing the Eagles still, but I don't.
11:31
Speaker 1: I don't see that this Titans team has been winning
11:33
Speaker 1: people in money. That was their first non cover cover
11:35
Speaker 1: last week and seven straight weeks, so the public is
11:38
Speaker 1: on the Titans. The public does not trust the Eagles.
11:40
Speaker 1: The Eagles, I agree with people saying they got lucky
11:42
Speaker 1: last week. It felt like they did. If Rogers didn't
11:44
Speaker 1: go out, they probably weren't going to cover that game.
11:46
Speaker 1: So me, I'm with chat right away. I wanted to
11:50
Speaker 1: take the Titans. They're just rabel as a dog. I
11:52
Speaker 1: blindly take the number and I take the money line. Um,
11:55
Speaker 1: this week, I will take the Eagles in a matchup
11:58
Speaker 1: that I think their defense is gonna get it right.
12:01
Speaker 1: Against a team that is just simply take away the run.
12:05
Speaker 1: What the hell is Tannehill gonna do? We've seen the
12:07
Speaker 1: time time again. This guy cannot make the plays you
12:09
Speaker 1: need him to make. So I'll back my Eagles here
12:12
Speaker 1: as an under six point favorite. Titans uh, one of
12:18
Speaker 1: the better running teams. Eagles bottom five against the run.
12:23
Speaker 1: Eagles like to use the run. Titans best rushing defense
12:28
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Mike Rabel, I think we've agreed. Top
12:33
Speaker 1: five strategic coach in the NFL. He knows the rules,
12:38
Speaker 1: he knows what his team is. He doesn't try to
12:41
Speaker 1: get them to be what they're not. They believe in him.
12:45
Speaker 1: Uh against the spread in his career as a favorite,
12:51
Speaker 1: as an underdog of three or more. Um again, Like, dude,
12:58
Speaker 1: you're going rogue two straight games, two straight games. You
13:02
Speaker 1: are defined every precedent, every rule, everything that we know
13:08
Speaker 1: about making smart decisions, embedding and betting the other side.
13:12
Speaker 1: I'm curious. I wrote the book, Chat, that's the issue. Well,
13:15
Speaker 1: actually no, I wrote the book it when you grew
13:19
Speaker 1: in New York best sellers. The book I wrote. That's
13:21
Speaker 1: not something on paper. Chat. Yeah, Well all I know
13:24
Speaker 1: is right now, I'm making a note. I'm making a
13:26
Speaker 1: note how much you love the Bills. Simon loves the Bills,
13:35
Speaker 1: loves and Eagles. Chad loves New England and Tennessee. So
13:42
Speaker 1: now we know, just take a step back. Don't realize
13:46
Speaker 1: this line was plus two last week? Are the sports
13:50
Speaker 1: books your friends, Chad? I didn't know that. Are you?
13:52
Speaker 1: Are the sports books here just to give you money?
13:55
Speaker 1: So you should be worried when they're out here being
13:57
Speaker 1: like no, let's move this line from two across the
13:59
Speaker 1: key number of three up till key number of six.
14:02
Speaker 1: So again the pros, I think that's a smart play.
14:04
Speaker 1: Hit in the six on the Tennessee. I agree with it.
14:07
Speaker 1: It's fishy, fishy, fishy line, just telling people to be careful.
14:10
Speaker 1: You're the books are not your friends. You know who's
14:13
Speaker 1: my friend? You? Even when we're even when you know
14:19
Speaker 1: you try to make me upset, We're still going to
14:21
Speaker 1: be friends. Um, you know the Packers. I don't even
14:26
Speaker 1: know he's playing quarterback for this team. I don't even
14:28
Speaker 1: know he's playing quarterback for the Bears. Uh. But we're
14:32
Speaker 1: talking about the Packers and the Bears, and the line
14:35
Speaker 1: at Fanuel right now is Packers minus four. Look this
14:40
Speaker 1: Bears team. I think Darnel Mooney out for the year,
14:45
Speaker 1: Eddie Jackson injured, their signing safeties off the street, Justin
14:49
Speaker 1: Fields separated left shoulder. They're still saying maybe he'll play
14:53
Speaker 1: this weekend. Shut it down. Shut the whole fucking thing down.
14:58
Speaker 1: Don't win another game, a really good draft pick. Get
15:02
Speaker 1: what you need on defense, get what you need on offense.
15:05
Speaker 1: Protect justin Field. We've seen enough about what you can
15:08
Speaker 1: do to game plan for him. Start building towards the
15:11
Speaker 1: next year. Don't be heroes. I don't. Yeah, I feel
15:18
Speaker 1: like the Lions kind of telling us that Rogers will
15:20
Speaker 1: most likely to be back now. That's moving that way, um,
15:23
Speaker 1: which is also dumb for Green Bay. What are you
15:25
Speaker 1: guys playing for as well? You should be trying to
15:27
Speaker 1: get a good draft pick and showcasing Jordan's love like
15:31
Speaker 1: this would be nice for you guys to move along
15:33
Speaker 1: or move away from Jordan's love. In the sense that
15:36
Speaker 1: you gave Rogers the deal. You're not getting out of
15:38
Speaker 1: that money. That's guaranteed money you gave him, just like
15:41
Speaker 1: sadly the Broncos that gave guaranteed money. You can't just
15:44
Speaker 1: shift that off the books, and no one's gonna be
15:46
Speaker 1: buying neither of those quarterbacks, in my opinion. Mean, you
15:48
Speaker 1: never know. With Rogers, maybe people could say it was
15:50
Speaker 1: just injuries and he had no talent around him. I
15:52
Speaker 1: think we all can agree he just hasn't looked the
15:54
Speaker 1: same this year. Um. So in this matchup, I'm kind
15:58
Speaker 1: of with chat where I want to take Green Bay
16:00
Speaker 1: that I feel like the Bears they've really reached that
16:02
Speaker 1: point of the injuries catching up to him. I think
16:05
Speaker 1: Eddie Jackson's now against shut down um, who's arguably their
16:09
Speaker 1: best player this year on defense. He's a road too.
16:12
Speaker 1: I love I love his style. I'm watching him on tape.
16:15
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it's just all bad for the Bears team.
16:18
Speaker 1: They've just they've kind of you know, not that they've
16:21
Speaker 1: they've they've given away this year. But I think what
16:24
Speaker 1: you just talked about, they had a lot to rebuild.
16:26
Speaker 1: They need a lot of pieces, So for them tank
16:28
Speaker 1: this year, that makes sense. Green Bay, I still think
16:31
Speaker 1: there's somewhat of hope. So if it is Rogers, that's
16:33
Speaker 1: the side I'll go with. But sitting here on Tuesday,
16:36
Speaker 1: we don't know what the quarterback is. Nothing from me.
16:38
Speaker 1: So I want to remind people because this next game
16:41
Speaker 1: that we're talking about with the Jaguars and the Lions,
16:44
Speaker 1: Simon and I were all over Jacksonville a plus seven
16:48
Speaker 1: fifty to win the a f C South. We were
16:50
Speaker 1: also all over the Lions over six and a half wins.
16:55
Speaker 1: We were also all over the Bears under five and
16:58
Speaker 1: a half winds, and also all over the Jets under
17:01
Speaker 1: I think six and a half or five and a
17:03
Speaker 1: half wins. So the Jets is done. We still got
17:06
Speaker 1: long shots with with the other three, probably more than
17:09
Speaker 1: probably better than long shots with the Lions and with
17:11
Speaker 1: the Bears. So this next matchup so many implications for
17:15
Speaker 1: us personally. Jaguars on the road at Detroit, they are
17:22
Speaker 1: what are we seeing here? I'm looking at so many
17:24
Speaker 1: different lines right now. Hold on down the minus one
17:26
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. Yeah, it's minus one and
17:28
Speaker 1: a half at fan duel. Yeah, it's coming down the money.
17:32
Speaker 1: That's it's coming down because the money is coming into
17:34
Speaker 1: the lines very close splits though, No, no, no, So
17:39
Speaker 1: basically so this morning, I mean, you did that show
17:41
Speaker 1: Green Idea, and I'd written in I don't know when
17:44
Speaker 1: that meeting was, say nine thirties rowed in Jaguars plus
17:48
Speaker 1: one and a half. By ten fifteen, it already flipped
17:51
Speaker 1: the minus one for the Jaguars, So I took it
17:53
Speaker 1: out and put a different team in just a sense
17:55
Speaker 1: that the value was shifting so quick. I don't know
17:57
Speaker 1: it was gonna be that time we showed up. So
18:00
Speaker 1: this is clearly the pros are taking a stance here.
18:02
Speaker 1: They're coming in heavy on Jacksonville. I was gonna bet
18:05
Speaker 1: him just because I really loved what I saw for
18:07
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. I'm sucked. I'm sucked back in chet. It's
18:10
Speaker 1: just he literally did in that game exactly what I
18:14
Speaker 1: envisioned him being this season. He's a big body, strong athletes,
18:18
Speaker 1: smart and get the ball downfield. And that's what you
18:21
Speaker 1: saw in that final two minute drive. It's really hard
18:24
Speaker 1: to describe that look, that feeling, but that quarterback style.
18:27
Speaker 1: That's why he was such a highly touted prospect. Not
18:29
Speaker 1: many guys can just thread it right down the field
18:32
Speaker 1: with pace in accuracy like he kept doing in that game.
18:35
Speaker 1: Tight windows. So they figured it out, hopefully right, that's
18:39
Speaker 1: what we're all seeing ourselves. Hopefully figured it out. During
18:41
Speaker 1: the bye week. I don't know if they have. I'm
18:45
Speaker 1: I'm terrified this number. Where I loved it at one
18:47
Speaker 1: and a half because I thought that was great value
18:48
Speaker 1: for the Jaguars. Now it's slip the minus one and
18:51
Speaker 1: a half. That's a little scary back in that number.
18:54
Speaker 1: That's a big movement, that's a that's a lot of movements. So, um,
18:58
Speaker 1: another of these games where I was on the Jaguars.
19:01
Speaker 1: Now I'm not to wait and see and try to
19:02
Speaker 1: figure out this out better where I could be walking into.
19:05
Speaker 1: I just feel like the Jaguars is more play here
19:07
Speaker 1: in Detroit. I love what they've done, but just talent wise,
19:11
Speaker 1: the Jaguars have more of it. And I still think
19:13
Speaker 1: that what we saw from Detroit, those coaching was that
19:16
Speaker 1: should have beat the Bills, like the coaching, those time
19:19
Speaker 1: out all of it at the end of the game.
19:21
Speaker 1: That's my that's my issue with Campbell. Like I love
19:23
Speaker 1: the Robbert Ross stuff, but the technical stuff is a
19:25
Speaker 1: big issue. So for Doug who's been here, I just
19:30
Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta keep going like guys and taking
19:32
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But I'm not gonna just give it out blindly.
19:35
Speaker 1: This here on a Tuesday, So I'd wait and see
19:37
Speaker 1: because you already missed the best of the value, like
19:39
Speaker 1: the plus one and a half that was a that
19:40
Speaker 1: was a big deal. Now that it's gone, I'd wait,
19:44
Speaker 1: but wait for what because it's only probably gonna go. Well,
19:48
Speaker 1: it's a plus one and a half for the Lions
19:50
Speaker 1: right now, no clue where it's gonna go though, I
19:53
Speaker 1: don't know we're just gonna go there. It's too early.
19:55
Speaker 1: So do I see this every game in the three? No?
19:58
Speaker 1: But if it does, you bet your ass. I'm on Detroit.
20:00
Speaker 1: There's no injuries and Detroit's healthy. I will be on
20:03
Speaker 1: Detroit to plus three because I have this game ready
20:05
Speaker 1: to pick. That's why a goat. I thought good value
20:08
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars. Now it's flipped a little bit, but
20:10
Speaker 1: I just don't want to back the lines. I'd still
20:12
Speaker 1: still like the Jaguars, but to me, I'd hope to
20:15
Speaker 1: get it back closer to a pick or at least
20:17
Speaker 1: minus one, just minus one and a half. I wouldn't
20:19
Speaker 1: do that that key number. I love the lines so much.
20:23
Speaker 1: I love betting on this team. I love rooting for
20:25
Speaker 1: this team. They're the best. They just they bring me joy.
20:30
Speaker 1: They really do. I might have to end up betting
20:32
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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. The Browns listen to Shaun
22:37
Speaker 1: Watson's Back. Deshaun Watson is back. The Browns came through
22:41
Speaker 1: for Jacoby Brissette in his last start of the year.
22:44
Speaker 1: I said to my kid we were watching the game,
22:46
Speaker 1: I'm like, listen, it's the last half of Jacoby Brissette football.
22:52
Speaker 1: We're gonna get for a while. We better enjoy it.
22:55
Speaker 1: We celebrated it. We celebrated it with a big win
22:58
Speaker 1: at plus three and a half, seven point favorites on
23:01
Speaker 1: the road. Deshaun Watson returns to Houston. The NFL was wicked.
23:06
Speaker 1: They're just wicked, you know, making the suspension exactly what
23:10
Speaker 1: it was to have him come back in his first
23:12
Speaker 1: game at Houston. Is it wrong to want to take
23:15
Speaker 1: the Texans here? Well, a lot of fans game, a
23:19
Speaker 1: lot of love because I yelled at you last week
23:21
Speaker 1: because you were as timents. We had to take Houston,
23:23
Speaker 1: I said, I refused, and Miami clearly was the better side.
23:27
Speaker 1: But that's just one of those where I I get
23:29
Speaker 1: where Chet's coming from. These Eventually it has to catch up.
23:33
Speaker 1: The books have to get Houston right. But I'm not
23:36
Speaker 1: going to be the one to find out when every
23:37
Speaker 1: week there's value on Houston. Every week they don't cover
23:41
Speaker 1: because Houston just is bad. They are a bad team.
23:44
Speaker 1: So I couldn't believe they didn't cover last week either,
23:47
Speaker 1: Like they got thirty fifteen they had the ball, all
23:50
Speaker 1: the momentum was on their side. Yeah, that was wild.
23:54
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I I want to be I wanted
23:58
Speaker 1: back Houston because we all know that Watson's gonna be rusty.
24:01
Speaker 1: It's going to be weirdest hell for him playing back
24:04
Speaker 1: at his old stadium in his first game back in
24:06
Speaker 1: a regular season game and what two years. Yeah, I
24:12
Speaker 1: don't know. I can't, can't tell the people to do it.
24:14
Speaker 1: I mean, maybe I'll be there. I'll do the coward movement.
24:17
Speaker 1: Just take three and a half the four first half
24:20
Speaker 1: and just hope Watson comes out rusty, but full game
24:22
Speaker 1: spread wise, I just there's no way chat on something
24:26
Speaker 1: that could be like we're getting Houston in the contest.
24:27
Speaker 1: I just god, no, no, no, no, no, that's what
24:31
Speaker 1: I mean. That's I want't even give it out people
24:32
Speaker 1: to bet because it's not gonna make my Big five
24:34
Speaker 1: betting wise, all right, we still owe people of foxhold assignment.
24:37
Speaker 1: Says in an exact decision as we run through the
24:40
Speaker 1: lineup here, I was just thinking about that, I want
24:43
Speaker 1: to make the Titans. My exact decision was I so
24:45
Speaker 1: thrown by our conversation in which you're on the Eagles
24:48
Speaker 1: that I forgot to line them up as the exact decision.
24:51
Speaker 1: I don't know. I might have to go back to it.
24:52
Speaker 1: Should do it, and you should say that after you bet.
24:54
Speaker 1: You got to say in the sports books are my
24:56
Speaker 1: friends and they want to give me money. You know what,
25:01
Speaker 1: I don't need your attitude. I don't need you being
25:05
Speaker 1: mean to me in the spirit of the holidays. The
25:09
Speaker 1: holidays are over, bitch. Come on, man, the holidays are
25:12
Speaker 1: coming up. We got Hanukkah, we got Christmas, we got
25:17
Speaker 1: so much to look forward to. Hashtag gratitude. Come on, Simon.
25:23
Speaker 1: Jets on the road at the Vikings. Jets are three
25:28
Speaker 1: point underdogs in a one pm game in Minnesota with
25:34
Speaker 1: Mike White at quarterback. The headlines. I love the New
25:38
Speaker 1: York Post. I read it eight times a day. The
25:41
Speaker 1: headlines yesterday, Mike White is the savior. We got a quarterback.
25:46
Speaker 1: He threw four touchdowns in the rain against a terrible,
25:50
Speaker 1: terrible defense that lost the only guy who could do
25:53
Speaker 1: anything and he wasn't even that good in Eddie Jackson.
25:56
Speaker 1: So part of me just wants to bet the Vikings
25:59
Speaker 1: because they should. The six point favorites against Mike White.
26:02
Speaker 1: Now going to play against a real team on the road,
26:05
Speaker 1: not at home. I agree, I want to take the
26:09
Speaker 1: Vikings here. I probably will. I would say the lines
26:11
Speaker 1: kind of respected to the Jets defense. To me, that's
26:15
Speaker 1: where the respect is coming from. Where Mike White everyone
26:18
Speaker 1: else saw that game too, where I mean I was
26:20
Speaker 1: locked in, we were that was one of our bigger games.
26:24
Speaker 1: He had a bunch of drop picks and he had
26:26
Speaker 1: a really tight window throws where the Bears defense were
26:29
Speaker 1: right there, and it kind of you know, it was
26:31
Speaker 1: a fifty ball and I would say nine of the
26:33
Speaker 1: ten of the fifty balls he through, we're caught by
26:36
Speaker 1: the Jets. The Jets do have good receivers. So um,
26:39
Speaker 1: looking at this matchup, I feel like Chad talked about it,
26:42
Speaker 1: where I want to take the Vikings. I like Kirk
26:45
Speaker 1: at home in these one PM games, especially the fact
26:47
Speaker 1: that it's Mike White on the road after a huge
26:50
Speaker 1: win at home. Um, what they went by one, I
26:53
Speaker 1: mean they kind of Yeah, they dominated the Bears in
26:55
Speaker 1: that game. So extended rest as well for this Vikings
26:58
Speaker 1: team after playing on a Thursday. Just a bunch of
27:01
Speaker 1: little things that make me want to take the Vikings.
27:03
Speaker 1: But the luck. The only thing gives me, Paul is
27:06
Speaker 1: our luck metric, where I look at their luck rankings
27:08
Speaker 1: all the time that we have at our company, and
27:11
Speaker 1: the Vikings are by far the luckiest teams. God yeah,
27:15
Speaker 1: it just keeps going their way. So last week too. Yeah,
27:19
Speaker 1: So we'll wait and see. Maybe we'll be able to
27:21
Speaker 1: get two and a half. That's the only reason I'm
27:22
Speaker 1: not making this, my Simon says, because I'm hoping to
27:24
Speaker 1: get two and a half on it. So just wait
27:26
Speaker 1: see if the value will come down. Maybe the pros
27:28
Speaker 1: will do us a favor and bet the Jets. But
27:30
Speaker 1: it's just hard for me to back Mike White on
27:32
Speaker 1: the road here after you got so lucky last week
27:35
Speaker 1: against the Bears team that, like Chad just said, they
27:37
Speaker 1: got major issues this Vikings team. Their their defense played
27:41
Speaker 1: bad against uh MAC and the Patriots offense. I could
27:46
Speaker 1: see them bouncing back after an extended ten days to
27:48
Speaker 1: get right. Pittsburgh Steelers just beat the Indianapolis Colts. I
27:53
Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say, uh you and I
27:57
Speaker 1: at least I I'm a Kenny Pickett fan. I've liked
28:01
Speaker 1: what I've seen from him. Admittedly did not watch a
28:03
Speaker 1: minute of the game last night. But I've read the
28:05
Speaker 1: stories and looked in the box score, and I've just
28:08
Speaker 1: continued to be impressed with this guy as a gamer.
28:11
Speaker 1: We love them coming out of the bi against the Saints,
28:13
Speaker 1: it worked for us. We knew going against the Bengals
28:17
Speaker 1: it was a bad side, Um, but he still played
28:19
Speaker 1: really well in that game. I think he's a really
28:22
Speaker 1: interesting player. The Steelers with t J. Watt are just
28:25
Speaker 1: a much better team. But the Steelers, like basically it's
28:30
Speaker 1: the line against the Falcons. I should have said they're
28:32
Speaker 1: visiting the Falcons right now plus one right now? I mean,
28:37
Speaker 1: was your initial action just did blindly take the Steelers? No,
28:40
Speaker 1: let's take the Falcons. Yeah, I would say that was
28:43
Speaker 1: my first one too, is just to take the Falcons
28:45
Speaker 1: and a matchup where I do think the Falcons let
28:48
Speaker 1: one go last week they should have won that one.
28:50
Speaker 1: They played so well in that game against the Commanders,
28:53
Speaker 1: they really did. It was like Matt Mitchelly even Texas
28:55
Speaker 1: about it's like you ran the ball, we down the
28:57
Speaker 1: field and then you throw it at the end. There.
28:59
Speaker 1: It just Arthur Smith sometimes, man, he just tries to
29:03
Speaker 1: be so damned smart. Um, I'm with you, chat, I
29:06
Speaker 1: really want to take at Landing here, but I just
29:09
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna pass on this game this week.
29:11
Speaker 1: I know that sounds crazy to people because I never
29:13
Speaker 1: really passed, but I don't really get the value on
29:16
Speaker 1: this line. To me, I make the game one. Both
29:19
Speaker 1: these teams, I don't know what I'm getting. Like sometimes
29:21
Speaker 1: Kenny pickt as incredible halfs and then he'll do nothing
29:23
Speaker 1: for another half. He's just a rookie that's inconsistent. And
29:28
Speaker 1: Mary Odin Man, I don't know what I'm getting from
29:30
Speaker 1: ever like he is, he is a wild card. Like again,
29:35
Speaker 1: you go through their schedule, they're easily easily could be
29:38
Speaker 1: leading this division by two or three games, and they
29:40
Speaker 1: just had so many close games they couldn't pull out.
29:43
Speaker 1: I like Atlanta as a big dog, like we took
29:45
Speaker 1: him last week before and a half. That's where I'm
29:47
Speaker 1: comfortable to Lanta. Anything over three. I'm comfortable to Atlanta.
29:50
Speaker 1: Anything under three at home against a bad team. Usually
29:53
Speaker 1: back Atlanta. For some reason, this game is giving me. Paul,
29:56
Speaker 1: so as you sitting here at two, I just I
29:57
Speaker 1: don't have an opinion on this one. All right, Well,
30:00
Speaker 1: that's fair. That's that's fair. You know what's im and
30:02
Speaker 1: that's fair and honest. That's all we can ask for.
30:05
Speaker 1: This is gonna sound crazy. The next game up, the
30:09
Speaker 1: Broncos plus eight and a half visiting the Ravens. Look,
30:15
Speaker 1: we know the Broncos. They are fucking dreadful on offense
30:21
Speaker 1: and their defense didn't play great against the Carolina Panthers.
30:26
Speaker 1: But I do think this Ravens team is in trouble
30:28
Speaker 1: and offensively they don't look right. Mark Andrews has not
30:33
Speaker 1: fully recovered from his injuries. Uh, they are missing players
30:36
Speaker 1: on the edges. Uh, They're running game is really challenged
30:41
Speaker 1: right now. Lamar Jackson has been wildly inconsistent. That is
30:47
Speaker 1: a big, big number against a really, really good defense
30:51
Speaker 1: in the Broncos. Mm hmm, Well, what are we supposed
30:57
Speaker 1: to do? Like Chad said, we're supposed to take the Broncos.
31:00
Speaker 1: This is supposed to We're supposed to get in the
31:04
Speaker 1: foxhole with the Broncos. Oh God, don't do this to
31:07
Speaker 1: our fans. Don't do this to no you you want
31:12
Speaker 1: to make it this well, I'm looking down like the
31:17
Speaker 1: rest of the exact decisions these people, because I'm i
31:20
Speaker 1: don't think I coun get in the fox with you
31:22
Speaker 1: on it. I've been making too much money fading the
31:25
Speaker 1: Broncos and taking the under. It's been one of my
31:28
Speaker 1: more enjoyable experiences this year. You just take the other
31:30
Speaker 1: side and you take the under. You're gonna fade the
31:33
Speaker 1: Broncos at eight and a half. I don't know what
31:36
Speaker 1: the hell to do with it, because I I they're
31:37
Speaker 1: sucking me and they're like everything you just said about
31:40
Speaker 1: the Ravens is so damn sure. That's why I like
31:42
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. They have major issues. There are left tackles
31:45
Speaker 1: out and standard Mark Andrews, like you just said, does
31:48
Speaker 1: not look right. They don't have a true number one
31:50
Speaker 1: receiver right now since Babman's gone out, So oh god,
31:54
Speaker 1: Chad's right, like I I should because I haven't bet
31:56
Speaker 1: this this week, and I looked through the number and
31:58
Speaker 1: it is good. I got it at six and a
31:59
Speaker 1: half because again, a lot of injuries to this Baltimore
32:03
Speaker 1: team right now where denver. Their excuses aren't they of
32:07
Speaker 1: course every team is injuries, but their excuses aren't injuries.
32:10
Speaker 1: It's all Russell Wilson. So ah, man, that's my issue here.
32:14
Speaker 1: It's like, I just I can't do it to people.
32:17
Speaker 1: He's shown me nothing becauseserve me putting money on him. Um,
32:21
Speaker 1: And at this point in the season, I make decisions
32:23
Speaker 1: like that where it's like fucking showing me something before
32:26
Speaker 1: I put thousands of dollars on your corpse, because that's
32:28
Speaker 1: what he is right now, He's a corpse. Russell Wilson, So, um,
32:32
Speaker 1: I can't. I can't sign off on a Fox Well
32:34
Speaker 1: on this one chat. Hmm, interesting, very interesting. I feel
32:44
Speaker 1: like you are it's weak their team, and you're kind
32:49
Speaker 1: of changing the script on me, and like we're seeing
32:51
Speaker 1: all these professional numbers that we know we should take.
32:57
Speaker 1: And I don't know if it's what you've seen through
33:02
Speaker 1: the year or like some other kind of psychological bias,
33:10
Speaker 1: But the Patriots, the Titans, the Broncos, these are all games.
33:17
Speaker 1: In Week five, they'd be an auto play and a
33:20
Speaker 1: week thirteam we're seeing things differently, and I gotta tell
33:25
Speaker 1: you it worries me. Yeah, well you're the amateur. Look,
33:28
Speaker 1: gamba doesn't work exactly how Chad just explain that doesn't
33:31
Speaker 1: listen to me. I'll tell you right now, stop fucking
33:34
Speaker 1: calling me that. Because I'm not true. You just said
33:37
Speaker 1: the most amateur thing I've ever heard said on the show.
33:39
Speaker 1: Whatever these lines are right here, every relevant to what
33:42
Speaker 1: the lines are in week five. I just go a
33:44
Speaker 1: week the week brother, That's why. That's how I do it,
33:47
Speaker 1: Like it doesn't matter what happened last week or the
33:49
Speaker 1: week before. My adjustment is on the whole season. And
33:52
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I would love to back the broncis here.
33:54
Speaker 1: Everything you just said it is true, Like this is
33:56
Speaker 1: a good number. The book are giving us two free points.
34:00
Speaker 1: I just don't trust the books. They're laying traps at
34:02
Speaker 1: this point of the year. It's stinky lines. It was
34:04
Speaker 1: just like last week, you love your little Bears against
34:07
Speaker 1: the Jets. You said, that's seven points. It's a lot
34:09
Speaker 1: of point. By the way, I never said I love
34:11
Speaker 1: the Bears against the Jets. You don't want to take
34:13
Speaker 1: the Jets that I didn't want to take the Jets
34:15
Speaker 1: because we didn't know who's playing quarterback yet. And I said, yeah,
34:20
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying that's what it comes to a
34:22
Speaker 1: point in the season where there's a lot of things
34:23
Speaker 1: that don't the matter. You're just playing this situation. So
34:26
Speaker 1: I might get into it all a situation will play
34:28
Speaker 1: with the Denver here, but I don't like it. I
34:30
Speaker 1: just do not like the juju of coming out of
34:33
Speaker 1: the Broncos like they got dominated by a Carolina team
34:37
Speaker 1: and Sam Donald they got absolutely dominated last week. So
34:40
Speaker 1: I just it's just hard for me to back a
34:42
Speaker 1: team like this in this position. Is juju a professional
34:46
Speaker 1: term or is that an amateur term? It could be both.
34:50
Speaker 1: Salty Chat Commanders on the road at the Giants Commanders
34:56
Speaker 1: are two point favorites. Simon says, do give me the
35:05
Speaker 1: Giants plus two and a half. Hopefully you can get
35:07
Speaker 1: the plus three if you can find it, but it's
35:09
Speaker 1: been bent down to two and a half to it
35:10
Speaker 1: a lot of books, just a smart playing a Giants
35:13
Speaker 1: team that everyone hates and the Commander's team that everyone loves,
35:16
Speaker 1: and a matchup of what does the Giants do? They
35:20
Speaker 1: run the ball, and we've seen Washington even Atlanta was
35:23
Speaker 1: able to run on them. Teams have been able to
35:25
Speaker 1: run on this Washington team. And Chase Young, he's not
35:28
Speaker 1: good against her and he's a pass rusher, so I
35:29
Speaker 1: could care less if he's coming back this week. In
35:31
Speaker 1: a matchup of desperation for this Giant's team. They've had us.
35:35
Speaker 1: They are on a slide right now. They've lost two
35:37
Speaker 1: straight welst in Detroit the Cowboys. This is a good
35:40
Speaker 1: game for them to get right against the Commander's team
35:43
Speaker 1: that we already talked about it. In their last seven
35:45
Speaker 1: games or six and one, like Heineke, has been an
35:47
Speaker 1: absolute tear. They're gonna get caught up eventually, and this
35:51
Speaker 1: is where they do then, being a favorite on the
35:52
Speaker 1: road and a divisional game, that's crazy to me. And
35:55
Speaker 1: the fact that the public loves them here, that's what
35:57
Speaker 1: gives me hope he might be to get the three.
35:59
Speaker 1: But I grabbed and a half now just in case
36:01
Speaker 1: this does go down to one, as the pros are
36:02
Speaker 1: gonna coming on the Giants because it's it's just a
36:04
Speaker 1: good spot to take a Giant thing that's undervalued right now. Yeah,
36:07
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. It makes no sense to me.
36:10
Speaker 1: I'm as I'm looking at this, I'm thinking, are there
36:13
Speaker 1: too many Giants injuries? What is the reason. It just
36:17
Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense at all that the Commanders have
36:21
Speaker 1: this much respect. Having seen we bet them a lot
36:24
Speaker 1: this year, watched a lot of their games, having seen
36:29
Speaker 1: how they win their games, even that Eagles game where
36:32
Speaker 1: they dominated. They had a lot of luck in that game.
36:37
Speaker 1: So all of a sudden, Taylor Heineke being a road
36:40
Speaker 1: favorite doesn't quite make sense to me. Dolphins four and
36:45
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs on the road at San Francisco.
36:52
Speaker 1: This line has been moving. It has been moving. We
36:56
Speaker 1: talked about it on green Dot Daily earlier today. When
37:00
Speaker 1: we first started talking about it was three and a
37:02
Speaker 1: half at our meeting. By the time we did our
37:05
Speaker 1: stuff an hour later, it was at four. Now it's
37:08
Speaker 1: at four and a half. Well, it's three and a half.
37:11
Speaker 1: A FanDuel it is um Yeah, and I I stupidly
37:17
Speaker 1: wanted to take Miami. I got sucked in on the points.
37:22
Speaker 1: Um had had a nice phone call after we did
37:25
Speaker 1: our live show this morning. I got a lot of
37:26
Speaker 1: ship for it. Apparently I'm an idiot. I don't know
37:29
Speaker 1: what to do here. I I want to make this
37:32
Speaker 1: our foxhold bet on the four nineers because the public
37:36
Speaker 1: loves Miami, and I'm apparently part of the public because
37:39
Speaker 1: I was getting sucked in. Where the forty nine they're healthy,
37:43
Speaker 1: They're completely healthy on defense. Now we've seen how their
37:47
Speaker 1: offenses dominated and last week they shouldn't have covered like
37:50
Speaker 1: that was a really bad game by them. Do we
37:53
Speaker 1: see them laying two stinkers on our own? I feel
37:55
Speaker 1: like that was a fair question I got proposed to me.
37:57
Speaker 1: That's They're a well coached team, this four niner. So
38:00
Speaker 1: Miami has been on an absolute tear. But like me
38:03
Speaker 1: and Chad talked earlier this week, earlier today, who have
38:06
Speaker 1: they played? And Chad talked about men picking them to
38:09
Speaker 1: miss the playoffs, for them just not to win the division,
38:12
Speaker 1: I think that's a fair play because they beat up
38:14
Speaker 1: on bad teams in the last couple of weeks. Now
38:15
Speaker 1: they're about to getting a really hard part of their
38:17
Speaker 1: schedule and this is one of the tougher games we're
38:19
Speaker 1: gonna face all year. So I want a lot of
38:22
Speaker 1: you people I like Miami coming into it. And it
38:25
Speaker 1: seems like I'm just a little too excited about a
38:27
Speaker 1: team that really hasn't proven what they're worth is at
38:30
Speaker 1: this point. So I'm flip flapping here, but I'm gonna
38:33
Speaker 1: end up on four nine is in the sense that
38:35
Speaker 1: I know a really smart group who's taking a position
38:37
Speaker 1: on the four nas at three three and a half. Um,
38:40
Speaker 1: So it's no surprise. The chat said, there's a couple
38:42
Speaker 1: of books on the four and a half at this point,
38:44
Speaker 1: some books still a three and a half. Just shop
38:46
Speaker 1: around and trying to find value on this line. I
38:49
Speaker 1: love it as the Foxholl. We've got a we've got
38:52
Speaker 1: a new supporter in the Foxholl. Matt Mitchell was gonna
38:55
Speaker 1: play a drop for everybody, our old friend Patrick Beverley.
39:00
Speaker 1: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
39:01
Speaker 1: Foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
39:04
Speaker 1: a city. I'm a Foxhole minus three and a half
39:07
Speaker 1: in the Foxhall. And that is an amazing drop that
39:12
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Then, uh, let me give you some stats
39:17
Speaker 1: to back up what you were saying. And I talked
39:19
Speaker 1: about some of this on Green Dot Daily this morning
39:21
Speaker 1: when I was talking about how I don't like me
39:23
Speaker 1: at Miami my rest of the year. I don't like
39:26
Speaker 1: Miami for the rest of the year. The past six
39:28
Speaker 1: games home versus Houston, home versus Cleveland, at Chicago, at Detroit,
39:34
Speaker 1: home versus Pittsburgh, home versus Minnesota. The next six games
39:40
Speaker 1: at San Francisco, at the l A Chargers, at the
39:43
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills home versus Green Bay at New England home
39:47
Speaker 1: versus the Jets. They're going on the road in December
39:52
Speaker 1: against really good teams, really competitive teams. So this is
39:57
Speaker 1: gonna be a different look from Miami then we've seen
40:00
Speaker 1: the previous six weeks. I love the Niners in this spot.
40:05
Speaker 1: I'm glad you've come around. Glad we're putting them in
40:08
Speaker 1: the foxhole. Uh. My biggest fear is that Cal Shannon
40:13
Speaker 1: as a favorite at home is not very good. Yeah
40:16
Speaker 1: now and again you said it. He got away with
40:18
Speaker 1: one last week, and I totally agree like that you
40:20
Speaker 1: should not have covered that game. Um, but laws of averages.
40:24
Speaker 1: Maybe he's finally turned the corner. Chat we can pay
40:27
Speaker 1: to see him do it. But it what is this
40:30
Speaker 1: the game of the week. I feel like des by
40:32
Speaker 1: the best matchup of the week of two teams that
40:34
Speaker 1: whoever wins this, it's gonna prove a lot to I
40:36
Speaker 1: don't know about Chad and me, especially that. Okay, now
40:39
Speaker 1: I can start believing these teams because neither of them
40:41
Speaker 1: are really played any good competition in these last couple
40:43
Speaker 1: of weeks. Well, there's one more game that's going to
40:46
Speaker 1: be my executive decision that I think is going to
40:48
Speaker 1: be an even better game Seahawks. That this isn't it.
40:52
Speaker 1: By the way, Seahawks visiting the Los Angeles Rams the
40:57
Speaker 1: man they are falling apart their eight point underdogs at
41:00
Speaker 1: home against the Seahawks right now. I mean, you know
41:06
Speaker 1: this is when you listen to the book. Well, I
41:08
Speaker 1: was impressed with the Rams, like they they played really
41:12
Speaker 1: well against the Chiefs. They the Chiefs only covered by
41:16
Speaker 1: kicking a field goal in the final minutes of the game.
41:18
Speaker 1: So but that was like, that was why you're talking
41:21
Speaker 1: about I want to take the Chiefs. And I couldn't
41:22
Speaker 1: fight you on it where it's like those huge spreads.
41:25
Speaker 1: You need so much luck to cover those big spreads
41:28
Speaker 1: because football is so hard. And this Rams team, me
41:32
Speaker 1: and Chad talked all the time about buying team at
41:34
Speaker 1: the lowest point. That's why he wants to take the
41:35
Speaker 1: Broncos this week, which is I'm telling you this is
41:38
Speaker 1: probably the smart play because you're buying that the lowest point.
41:40
Speaker 1: This is as low as it gets for this This
41:42
Speaker 1: Rams team doesn't get any lower. There they might be
41:46
Speaker 1: out down Aaron Donald now in this game already know
41:48
Speaker 1: they're out the receivers. This is lows against. But we've
41:52
Speaker 1: seen the weakness and the Seahawks team the running. They
41:56
Speaker 1: cannot stop the run, and we know what the Rams
41:58
Speaker 1: want to do. They want to run the ball, especially
42:00
Speaker 1: now they have a running quarterback in there for Stafford.
42:02
Speaker 1: So as long as Stafford doesn't rush back and come
42:04
Speaker 1: for this game. I know it sounds weird, I'd rather
42:06
Speaker 1: have the running quarterback in this game against the Seahawks defense.
42:10
Speaker 1: I'll take the seven and a half. Hope they gets
42:11
Speaker 1: back to eight. Um GRAVI eight then, because it's just
42:17
Speaker 1: professionals are gonna take this number in the sense that
42:19
Speaker 1: you have a divisional home dog that as bad as
42:23
Speaker 1: they have look this Rams team, it's still McVeigh that
42:27
Speaker 1: can scheme up away to run the ball against a
42:29
Speaker 1: really bad stopping the run defense and the Seahawks. So
42:33
Speaker 1: this big of a number. This is in the middle
42:34
Speaker 1: of the season. The Seahawks like they're on a roll
42:36
Speaker 1: for a while there. You've kind of seen them come
42:38
Speaker 1: back down the earth these last couple of weeks. We
42:40
Speaker 1: got obviously caught with it last week, same thing this week.
42:43
Speaker 1: I think this line is too too high for Seahawks team,
42:46
Speaker 1: the fact that the public is gonna be all over
42:48
Speaker 1: this right, They're gonna be teasing this number everything so
42:51
Speaker 1: mean every public Joe public's money line parlay taking the
42:54
Speaker 1: Seahawks here. Um, I'll gladly take the value on the
42:57
Speaker 1: eight with this Rams team hundred hundred percent. Who whoo
43:05
Speaker 1: uh Our favorite team to fade on the road as
43:08
Speaker 1: a favorite. The Los Angeles Chargers are on the road
43:11
Speaker 1: as a favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. The number
43:15
Speaker 1: right now is one and a half. The Raiders are
43:18
Speaker 1: one and a half point underdogs. The Chargers nearly gave
43:22
Speaker 1: it away against the Cardinals, uh pulled one out, and
43:27
Speaker 1: the Raiders did exactly the opposite, beating up on the
43:30
Speaker 1: Seahawks in the overtime with Josh Jacobs gaining eight hundred
43:35
Speaker 1: thousand yards in the game. It's pro Joe game. Is
43:39
Speaker 1: now your exact decision? No? Oh fuck? Love Vegas here? Yeah,
43:45
Speaker 1: I love it, I love Vegas here. You're gonna make
43:47
Speaker 1: Chad force this one in on Sunday. We'll hopefully we'll
43:49
Speaker 1: get two and a half. That would be amazing, because
43:50
Speaker 1: too such a lame number. Um, I fucking hate pushes,
43:55
Speaker 1: so hopefully give US two and a half. I don't
43:56
Speaker 1: think we'll get there because the tickets are on the Chargers,
43:58
Speaker 1: but the money is big on the Raiders and it
44:01
Speaker 1: should be just like the Cardinals last week, like I
44:06
Speaker 1: I understood, I got a lot of piste off people
44:08
Speaker 1: telling me all the stats about Kingsbury after November Kingsbury
44:12
Speaker 1: at home, and it was a simple thing where I
44:13
Speaker 1: kept saying, the Chargers just can't be favorites. They just
44:17
Speaker 1: can't be because whenever they win games, they always went
44:19
Speaker 1: by one or two points. That's just how they are
44:21
Speaker 1: and that's just up to bad coaching. That's what I
44:23
Speaker 1: think it is with this Chargers team. They have the talent,
44:25
Speaker 1: they just on the coaching and they don't have the players.
44:28
Speaker 1: And their biggest issue now is that the d tackle
44:30
Speaker 1: position at defense. They're they're an historically bad team against
44:33
Speaker 1: the run this year historically, Like the numbers they give
44:36
Speaker 1: up on the ground is out of this world. We
44:39
Speaker 1: just saw the Raiders what they want to do. They
44:40
Speaker 1: want to run the ball. Josh Jacobs and I know
44:42
Speaker 1: he's got injuries right, he's banged up, He's resting all week.
44:45
Speaker 1: They say he's not gonna practice all week. He's full
44:48
Speaker 1: ago me and jaded me and Chayer catching over one
44:51
Speaker 1: and a half with this Raiders team at home, no brainer,
44:54
Speaker 1: player will definitely take them here. It's it's terrifying now
44:58
Speaker 1: that I'm thinking about back in Joshua Daniels, But I
45:01
Speaker 1: like Chad knows like this is the right spot. Right
45:03
Speaker 1: We're getting home divisional dog and a team that wants
45:06
Speaker 1: to run the ball against a team that just can't
45:07
Speaker 1: stop the run and the Chargers, and there's no one
45:09
Speaker 1: coming in to stop that. There. They are what they are.
45:11
Speaker 1: They're not adding anyone to that d tackle position. So yeah,
45:14
Speaker 1: give me, give me the Raiders here. Yeah, I like
45:17
Speaker 1: that one a lot. We were building a nice little
45:19
Speaker 1: list here of of games that will get their baby
45:21
Speaker 1: through the thicken thing. Chad, we'll figure it in bikes.
45:24
Speaker 1: We like the Giants, we like the Niners, we like
45:27
Speaker 1: the Rams, we like the Raiders. We like and then
45:30
Speaker 1: it comes to the executive decision. The Kansas City Chiefs
45:38
Speaker 1: visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, the Bengals two and a half
45:44
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home. We're e d and the funk
45:49
Speaker 1: out of the Bengals right now, The choice between the
45:53
Speaker 1: unthinkable and the impossible decision. This just makes me. I mean,
46:02
Speaker 1: I know why, but this Bengals team, Look, we love
46:06
Speaker 1: them in a very strange situation when you normally wouldn't
46:09
Speaker 1: love them. A couple of weeks ago, as road favorites
46:12
Speaker 1: against the Steelers in a shootout they won, we love
46:16
Speaker 1: them this past weekend as short road favorites against Tennessee,
46:21
Speaker 1: tight game, defensive battle. You love the under They had
46:26
Speaker 1: a lot of things go against them and pulled it out.
46:30
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, its fucking awesome and this defense is just
46:35
Speaker 1: better with DJ Reader playing and likely to get Joe
46:39
Speaker 1: Mixon back. The Bengal should not be underdogs in this game. Yeah,
46:43
Speaker 1: and you were all over the Bengals last year in
46:45
Speaker 1: this game least two teams played. I went against it,
46:48
Speaker 1: got burned the following week. Yeah, it's I don't want
46:54
Speaker 1: to I don't want to go overboard on my love
46:56
Speaker 1: for since here right now. But it is a Joe
46:57
Speaker 1: Burrow thing. I do think he's ascended now to be
47:01
Speaker 1: in that conversation. Is the top five guy. He's just
47:04
Speaker 1: he's cool man. He is Joe cool. He lost his
47:06
Speaker 1: number one reponent, number one weapon in Jamal Chase kept
47:10
Speaker 1: going out there, kept producing, kept doing better. Yeah, lost
47:14
Speaker 1: Joe and mixing against you know, and one of the
47:17
Speaker 1: best better. Yeah, it's just he's just so good at
47:22
Speaker 1: adjusting to what he has in front of him. Now
47:25
Speaker 1: Chase is coming back against the biggest weakness of this
47:28
Speaker 1: Chief's team. Their secondaries filled with rookies and the second
47:31
Speaker 1: year of players. That's their biggest achilles here this year,
47:34
Speaker 1: the biggest achilles heal this year. So the thing you
47:37
Speaker 1: want to do against him is go downfield with your
47:40
Speaker 1: big body guys. And we saw the Chargers team with
47:43
Speaker 1: Mike Williams and Keenan Allen really take it to this
47:45
Speaker 1: Chief's defense. They struggled against those guys and they got
47:48
Speaker 1: lucky when Mike Williams went out with an injury in
47:50
Speaker 1: that game. This, Yeah, te Higgins here and you got
47:53
Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase. Those are a big body guys who are
47:56
Speaker 1: can get downfield with speed. So looking up a matchup
47:59
Speaker 1: where Ched's talked about, wanted to make this my Green
48:01
Speaker 1: Dot Daily picked this morning, but it wasn't at three.
48:04
Speaker 1: I wanted the plus three. Now I'm looking at in
48:06
Speaker 1: the app right now, I don't think it's gonna get there.
48:08
Speaker 1: Do you think it's gonna drop down to two? Um,
48:10
Speaker 1: despite the public coming in so heavy on the Chiefs
48:14
Speaker 1: and they have trends back in it. Historically Betty Mahomes
48:18
Speaker 1: under a field goal has been very profitable. That's that's
48:21
Speaker 1: a nice spot to be and taking them under a
48:22
Speaker 1: field goal. But looking at this Chief's team, if you
48:26
Speaker 1: go through all their games, all their wins are really close.
48:29
Speaker 1: They've had a couple a couple of big blowouts, But
48:31
Speaker 1: if you go through it like I'm looking at right now,
48:33
Speaker 1: most of their wins are by three or especially when
48:36
Speaker 1: they play against teams that can put up points, they
48:38
Speaker 1: just stay in these games because their defense really can't
48:40
Speaker 1: get stopped. So yeah, with with Chat, I'm gonna back
48:43
Speaker 1: it here. I'll be all over since you with him,
48:45
Speaker 1: hopefully we can get to the three. But at two
48:47
Speaker 1: and a half, I still think you're getting a good
48:48
Speaker 1: key number of the since he team, I don't think
48:50
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to three. Uh yeah, I think they're
48:53
Speaker 1: all already giving you reduced juice on two and a half,
48:56
Speaker 1: begging you to take it at two and a half.
48:57
Speaker 1: So it has been interesting with with the World Cup
48:59
Speaker 1: and all these other sports going on. Sometimes you can
49:02
Speaker 1: wait in the big money like Joe Public. Everyone comes
49:05
Speaker 1: in heavy Saturday nights, Sunday morning. Sometimes you you are
49:07
Speaker 1: able to get a bump up. I would grab the
49:09
Speaker 1: two and a half now, just to be safe. In Kisse,
49:11
Speaker 1: it does drop it too, because that is a key number. Um.
49:15
Speaker 1: The other thing that's really interesting to me about this
49:18
Speaker 1: Cincinnati team is you mentioned Joe Burrow. The other day
49:24
Speaker 1: watching the games with my kid, I said, name the
49:28
Speaker 1: most enjoyable quarterbacks to watch, not necessarily the best, like
49:34
Speaker 1: the guys who are just the most fun to watch.
49:37
Speaker 1: And to me it was obviously Justin Fields, uh, Patrick Mahomes,
49:44
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, Josh Allen. And my kids said to me
49:48
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray, And I said, I don't love watching Kyler Murray.
49:51
Speaker 1: You know why. He doesn't play with any joy. He
49:54
Speaker 1: just looks mad the whole time, whereas the other guys
49:56
Speaker 1: they look like they're having fun. They look like their
49:59
Speaker 1: kids playing in the back are just loving what they're doing.
50:02
Speaker 1: That you left off your boy, the guy you bet
50:05
Speaker 1: on f m v P Jalen Hurts number two and
50:07
Speaker 1: m v P ratings right now, Yeah, I feel like
50:10
Speaker 1: he's he's up there with these guys. Now the he's five.
50:13
Speaker 1: He's five. Yeah, the stuff he can do running though,
50:16
Speaker 1: Like but coming in the year, um, I just never
50:19
Speaker 1: envisioned what he would turn into and this year it's
50:22
Speaker 1: I'm comfortable with saying that he's he's an elite guy
50:25
Speaker 1: at what he can do, which is running the ball.
50:27
Speaker 1: How do you feel about my Kyla Murray take. I
50:30
Speaker 1: just I've been out on Kyler in the sense that
50:32
Speaker 1: I just think his attitude such ship which so I
50:34
Speaker 1: agree with your sense it doesn't look like he's having fun,
50:37
Speaker 1: but we'll see. I don't want to put too much
50:38
Speaker 1: on him. Um, it could be a Kingsbury thing, but
50:42
Speaker 1: just the way he talks to Hopkins, he seems like
50:44
Speaker 1: a kid that never got the ship kicked out of him.
50:45
Speaker 1: And you could just tell Hopkins like looked at him
50:47
Speaker 1: like I'm about to beat the ship out of this
50:48
Speaker 1: little dude, and he didn't because he's obviously his quarterback.
50:51
Speaker 1: But there's certain things he says that just rubbed you
50:54
Speaker 1: the wrong way. And it's the same thing with Zach Wilson,
50:56
Speaker 1: Like all X players shoot on Zach Wilson all last
50:59
Speaker 1: week and then this week the Jets win, and you
51:02
Speaker 1: could not interview a Jets player in that locker room
51:04
Speaker 1: that didn't speak so highly of Mike Mike White. How
51:07
Speaker 1: much do you like Mike White? How much of a
51:09
Speaker 1: team guy he is? And that's just shade shade, shade shade,
51:12
Speaker 1: or in exact, the quarterback position. If they if guys
51:15
Speaker 1: even get a whiff of you being a little stuck
51:17
Speaker 1: up asshole, they're out. And I feel like that's a
51:19
Speaker 1: that's a big problem right now with Kyler and his teammates.
51:22
Speaker 1: Lots of listeners are asking us about show merch because
51:27
Speaker 1: who wouldn't want a T shirt with my face and
51:30
Speaker 1: Simon's face on it? It has arrived. Just visit the
51:34
Speaker 1: volume dot com, slash the dash favorites. Code Shaves twenty
51:40
Speaker 1: gets off today through Thursday. The Indianapolis Culture eleven point
51:47
Speaker 1: underdogs had the Dallas Cowboys. God damnit, you do we
51:50
Speaker 1: have to do this? I mean, look, you wrote the book.
51:57
Speaker 1: It's it's not written though you the Colts. I hate it,
52:01
Speaker 1: just like all you hate it. It's not a contest
52:04
Speaker 1: play now, it's been here on Tuesday. I say it's not.
52:07
Speaker 1: But we'll see because that's crazy. That's a crazy number
52:11
Speaker 1: for a Dallas team that cannot stop the run. Like
52:14
Speaker 1: they are bad against the run. That is a major issue.
52:17
Speaker 1: So a team that is bad against the run, I
52:20
Speaker 1: always like other teams that can run the ball donnantly,
52:22
Speaker 1: and that's what this Cold team can do. They can't
52:24
Speaker 1: pass the ball donaltly there. That's not a strength of theirs,
52:27
Speaker 1: but they make it work with the two added monster
52:29
Speaker 1: in the backfield and Jonathan Taylor's looked better these last
52:31
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Um. The love of the public for
52:35
Speaker 1: the Cowboys is interesting. Uh, I just I thought the
52:39
Speaker 1: number would be ten. I'm shocked to see it now
52:41
Speaker 1: sitting here on Tuesday, all the way up to eleven
52:42
Speaker 1: at this point. But it makes sense. We saw the
52:44
Speaker 1: Colts look so bad last night against the Pittsburgh team
52:47
Speaker 1: at home. I guess it makes sense the number, so
52:51
Speaker 1: the hesitation would just be Matt Ryan looked cooked last night.
52:55
Speaker 1: I think he started the game one in eight um passing.
52:58
Speaker 1: He's just he so up and down. You don't know
53:01
Speaker 1: what you're getting week to week. And that's the hardest
53:02
Speaker 1: part getting read on this Colds team. It's like, are
53:04
Speaker 1: you gonna get the team that took the Chiefs to
53:06
Speaker 1: the end and they beat them straight up and took
53:08
Speaker 1: the Eagles to a one point game. Are you gonna
53:10
Speaker 1: get the colds team that just looks in the maich
53:13
Speaker 1: for a whole half because they can't move the ball. Um,
53:16
Speaker 1: That is a tough one. So my my heart says
53:19
Speaker 1: go with the go of the culture right now because
53:20
Speaker 1: you're getting the value. But I feel like that's a
53:22
Speaker 1: fair point. The Chad said, like this probably won't be
53:25
Speaker 1: one of our five. All right, last game of the week,
53:36
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints, who broke our heart this past
53:39
Speaker 1: week on the road, is four point underdogs at the
53:42
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay buccane Years. No strong opinion on this game
53:45
Speaker 1: right now. I say Tampa in the sense that you're
53:50
Speaker 1: getting them off such a bad loss. With Brady in
53:52
Speaker 1: the game, they easily should have won. I mean that
53:55
Speaker 1: was I think fourth and ten, then the joke who
53:58
Speaker 1: touchdown the back of the end zone. It just an
54:00
Speaker 1: incredible run by that Brown's team uh to end that game.
54:04
Speaker 1: But I like Tampa in the sense that there there
54:09
Speaker 1: no one's gonna betting them. They just I believe they
54:11
Speaker 1: just lost their left tackle. Um it feels like a
54:15
Speaker 1: lonely favorite that I'll be taking here that no one's
54:17
Speaker 1: gonna be bet. Everyone will just take the Saints as
54:19
Speaker 1: the dog and a match up between two teams that
54:21
Speaker 1: are pretty equal. I make this line three and a half,
54:25
Speaker 1: no value either way. Um, if you can get a four,
54:27
Speaker 1: I guess you could go Saints. I just I just
54:29
Speaker 1: wouldn't do it. Um any Dalton. We've seen him burn
54:32
Speaker 1: me and Chad two different times to sharing prime time. Ah,
54:36
Speaker 1: he has been anemic in prime time. He just can't
54:39
Speaker 1: can't make throws. Um, yeah, don't. I don't think this
54:44
Speaker 1: would be one of my bigger bets. But the more
54:46
Speaker 1: I'm looking at, the more I'm thinking myself like this.
54:48
Speaker 1: This usually is the time you take Tampa at home
54:50
Speaker 1: against an indoor team that's struggling offensively, and I would
54:55
Speaker 1: love to say their defense is the reason that the
54:57
Speaker 1: four nighter struggled so much. But that was just a
54:59
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garopp shooting himself in the foot kind of game
55:01
Speaker 1: where Town doesn't usually do that. The Saints historically have
55:05
Speaker 1: done that against him, but this year he might have
55:07
Speaker 1: broke the curse. He beat them earlier. I think it
55:08
Speaker 1: was week two or week three, me and Chader on
55:11
Speaker 1: the other side of a bad Jameis Winston picks six
55:13
Speaker 1: in that game. Um, who knows it could be Jamis
55:16
Speaker 1: this week. I've heard some rumblings they might be Jamis,
55:19
Speaker 1: But as we sit here right now, it's Andy Dalton
55:21
Speaker 1: side back Tampa. Matt Mitchell is going to be out
55:27
Speaker 1: of town next week and he will be in Vegas
55:30
Speaker 1: for this game. So hopefully later in the week we
55:33
Speaker 1: will develop a strong enough opinion to give him something
55:36
Speaker 1: to root for. We'll try, but I feel like you
55:39
Speaker 1: agree with you. Chest probably won't be one of our five. No, no, no,
55:42
Speaker 1: there's like, yeah, there are certain spots in which you
55:45
Speaker 1: want to back the Saints. Saints is like a short
55:48
Speaker 1: road dog. The only thing that makes me wean a
55:53
Speaker 1: little bit Saints is that divisional game Like at four.
55:58
Speaker 1: You know, you play the percentages and go with the
56:02
Speaker 1: with the dog. But this Saints team like can be
56:06
Speaker 1: in Munich offensively like we saw it, and so it's tough.
56:09
Speaker 1: It's a tough one. I don't have a strong opinion
56:11
Speaker 1: on it, and it might not happen. Matt Mitchell, It
56:13
Speaker 1: just might not happen. That's and that's kind of how
56:16
Speaker 1: it is where you're picking games on Tuesday. It's like, yeah,
56:19
Speaker 1: we're still trying to figure out certain matchups of you know,
56:23
Speaker 1: got like we just got so burned from New Orleans.
56:26
Speaker 1: It is hard for me to just be like, yeah,
56:28
Speaker 1: take New Orleans here, where they did everything they could,
56:30
Speaker 1: did not cover that game last week. It still is
56:33
Speaker 1: hard for me to even start logging bets again. I'm
56:35
Speaker 1: so upset about it. All right, so when I used
56:42
Speaker 1: to losing this year, it's been a good year. Not
56:43
Speaker 1: that's the problem. Foxhold forty Niners minus three and a half.
56:47
Speaker 1: Simon says Giants plus two and a half the exact
56:50
Speaker 1: decision since the plus two and a half our leads
56:54
Speaker 1: right now, Vike's minus three, but we're hoping it gets
56:56
Speaker 1: down to two and a half Giants plus two and
56:58
Speaker 1: a half, Niners minus three and a half, Rams plus
57:00
Speaker 1: eight Raiders plus two since he plus two and a half.
57:04
Speaker 1: We're keeping an eye on the Colts turned up to
57:08
Speaker 1: a spinal tap sponsored eleven um. We'll be back on Thursday,
57:16
Speaker 1: I know we will. Simon for Simon, Hunter for Matt Mitchell.
57:22
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from
57:25
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. Download from Apple podcasts, from Spotify,
57:29
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, rate review, subscribe. Weave was
57:33
Speaker 1: five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
57:37
Speaker 1: Listen to the podcast all the way to the end
57:41
Speaker 1: until next time. I Love you,