Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The 2025 Crash is Only the Beginning (Act Now!) + Stock Market News 09 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The 2025 Crash is Only the Beginning (Act Now!) + Stock Market News 09 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And welcome to this pre-morning live stream, one that's a little bit more serious than the usual ones.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Honestly, today and I just had a chat with most of my mentors we have a little chat group and they've all been like bankers and investment bankers and run hedge funds and so on for some of them for 20, 30, 40, even 50 years, and I think we're all kind of agreeing this reminds us a little bit of 2008 today, and I don't want to freak people out.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I want to do the opposite here by helping you understand what's actually going on out there so you can make better moves and also give you something to help you even further there.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: So let me, um, first of all, of course, consult winston.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Does he look concerned?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: He doesn't look too concerned, does he, winston?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: So you know that sort of put you at ease.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: But then let's run through, um, let's run through the key stuff here that I want to explain to you, and I'm loving you guys for saying put a one in the chat if your portfolio is in the red.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: That's probably most people today.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, do that.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Guys appreciating all the kind comments as well here.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Uh, let us walk through what china just did in response to tariffs literally a few hours ago.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: The real problem is not the stock market.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I want to explain that because that's really really important.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Why the heck is gold falling?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Because isn't that the thing that people buy when everyone freaks out?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Should therefore gold not be going up?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Well, there's a very good reason for why it's falling, and you need to understand that, even if you're not in gold.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And then, as a lot of ones say, this is sort of the Alcoholics Anonymous for stock investors.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: This morning, I'll give you one quick, really really quick, kind of secret clue to find the quickest way to know which way the market goes next.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: That's going to be really useful for you.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And then everybody on Wall Street knows what the real issue is today and nobody on Main Street does, and I want to make sure you guys are as informed as somebody who works on Wall Street you might be thinking well, why?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Because it'll help you make better decisions and help you see the risks and opportunities that nobody else really sees out there.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: So that'll be useful for you.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Again, let me know that.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Uh, just write like useful or something like that in the chat.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: And then when and what do we buy or even sell?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Is it still time to sell.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: If you were a long-term investor, I want to give you a toolbox there, and then let's look for the early warning signs if this is going to get much worse, or or.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: And then let's round it up.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I always like to.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: There must be some good news, right?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: And I have found sort of good news, so I'll share that with you as well, to make sure we don't end up today on a gloom.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: But, by the way, if you understood all of this two, four, six, eight points or so is that eight?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Do you think you'd be better informed?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Do you think you'd be able to make better decisions?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: The answer to that is yes.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Just put another one in the chat and I can see that.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: And while you're at it, smash the like button too, if you like.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: And let me show you pre-market.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: It's not terrible, it's not wonderful, but sort of okay.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, markets are down a little bit, futures are down across the board, but that is honestly not the real story today.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: The stock market is not the problem today.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So let me run through these for you here.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Lots of ones Loving that.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: This is going to be high value for you, which is always my intention.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: So what did China just do?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: They just raised tariffs on US goods to 84%.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Well, us tariffs on Chinese goods are now, I think, 104%.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: So we're just kind of upping the stakes in this trade war, which, of course, the market doesn't love, because undoubtedly Trump is going to respond and raise rates some more.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: So this is not over till the fat lady sings Paul there, another one bites the dust.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: It's a good song, isn't it?
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So what's the real problem today?
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: It isn't the stock market, right?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I've said this twice now.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: It is the bond market.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So boring, right?
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The bond market is like the thing that puts people to sleep, and let me get rid of Winston here for a moment so you can see what I'm showing you.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: The bond yields are going up and everyone's like oh my God, why do I care?
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Because it's really, really, really, really important, and it's in fact, so important and such a big topic to unpack.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: I'm actually going to put out a full length video on just this thing, because this is like remember when the housing market collapsed in 2008 and nobody really understood why?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: This is one of those things.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: It's that big.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So what we've got is we've got the stock market falling and bonds are falling at the same time, and that never happens because we're meant to be fleeing into these safe havens.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: So why are bonds falling and therefore yields going up?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Well, mainstream media CNBC and those kind of muppets will have you believe it's because China is selling these bonds or foreign governments are selling US government bonds to sort of you know up yours to the American government.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: That's not the case.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: That's not what this is all about.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: There is something way, way, way way bigger in this than what mainstream media will have you believe.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Leave.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And it'll also answer this question why the heck is gold falling?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So gold went to okay, this is the GLD ETF, which is the gold ETF.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: It went to just under 290 here and then it's come down quite a bit.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Why the heck did that happen?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Same story why are people selling gold in moments of panic?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Should we not be buying gold in moments of panic?
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Isn't this how this works?
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So why is that happening?
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Why is that happening?
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: That's what I want to explain to you, because that's kind of the key thing here.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: So what this is really all about is something called the base trade, and to all you guys inside the coaching community.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I put out a full note on that this morning already, so you understand what this is and everybody else.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: You're going to my my full length video on how that really works.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: It's super important.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Basically, hedge funds right, hedge funds do this little trade and it's on treasury bonds, so it's on government bonds, and they make this teeny tiny margin difference between the bond prices and the futures on bonds.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: It's all a little bit complicated and so so they make very, very small amounts of money on that.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So, because they make very, very small amounts of money on that, they leverage it, and they don't just leverage a little bit like a one or two or three times ETF%.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Well, minus 5% times 20 is minus 100%.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Boom, you're out of business.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: And that's exactly what's happening.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: It's been happening the last two days.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Hedge funds are being caught with their trousers down and maybe you think, oh, that's wonderful, we don't like the hedge funds.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a big freaking problem because this is real money and it isn't a little bit of money.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: It's approximately $1.6 trillion.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: That's pretty much unregulated.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Now, has this happened before?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we've seen this story before.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: What happened last time?
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: The Fed bailed them out, and a lot of people are asking for that right now.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: So what's happening is that these hedge funds are literally getting margin calls from the people who lent them the money and therefore they're having to sell stuff.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: So they're selling government bonds because they own those, they're selling gold, they're selling stocks, they're selling anything that they have to not go out of business, and that's why we're seeing everything go down Bond market, stock market, gold, everything falling, and that's a pretty serious matter.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of the sort of story we saw around 2008, where there's this real systematic risk problem here.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Japan today had an emergency meeting their central bank on exactly this and they confirmed that they thought there were massive losses there.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: The Bank of England put out a statement saying there are massive losses in hedge funds.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: This is a worldwide problem that nobody talks about, because nobody's ever heard of this thing called the base trade right, because it's a weird little obscure thing that only the hedge funds do, and the carry trade is a little bit the similar story that we saw in August.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Again, nobody really understood this.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: This is a little bit of a similar one there, and this is big.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: This is big.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So are we going to see some hedge funds collapsing?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Probably, probably, yeah, probably, so how do you know which way the market's going to turn in this?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Well, I can show you the real live screen here.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: This is the VIX fear index.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: It tells you pretty much the whole story.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Don't need to know why.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: And right now the VIX is up pretty, uh, pretty significantly.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Another, I don't know what percentage, but it's up here at 53.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: A normal fear level is below 20.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Very, very unusual to be at these levels.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I'll give you give you a historic chart in a second as well.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Um, so here is a little summary of this from somebody or other.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: A multi-trillion dollar basis trade is blowing up and countless funds and banks are unwinding their positions, but there isn't enough liquidity in the system.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: So even if these guys want to sell these bonds, they can't.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: There are no buyers for them.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: And that's when your margin call becomes a real problem, because, yeah, you've got assets, but you've got no buyers, so you.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: And that's when your margin call becomes a real problem, because yeah, you got assets, but you got no buyers, so you got a problem right, and that's what we're seeing.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing these massive, massive crashes in bond markets.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: We have critical liquidity drainage events as soon as tomorrow, which is today, I think, there is a big 10-year auction today.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: There's a 30-year auction on Thursday.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: This is the US government issuing new debt.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: If there isn't enough liquidity in the system, which means there aren't enough buyers, we get a failed auction and that means there's not enough buyers, so the US government can't finance its debt.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: That becomes a real freaking problem.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So what happens in that situation?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: The Fed steps in.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: The Fed becomes the buyer, because the Fed cannot allow the US treasury market, the bond market, to collapse.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: It's pretty serious stuff, pretty serious stuff.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So what are we expecting the Fed to do?
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: They're kind of between a rock and a hard place At the moment.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: They're acting pretty slowly and, by the way, they need a bailout fund that is about a trillion and a half.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: It's just a little bit of money at.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: This problem will probably let you on, because actually they don't really want you to know this, because they fear it might cause more fear and panic and so on, and I don't want to panic you.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: We survived 2008,.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: But I want you to be well-informed, because this is what's driving the market right now.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: It's no longer about tariffs.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, tariffs is the headline noise, but this is what's what's happening underneath it.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you guys?
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: If that makes some sense to you doesn't have to make a hundred percent sense, because it's a bit complex, I get that.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: But if it makes some sense to you, just put a, put a one in the chat and I see that this is is landing for you guys.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: And so here are the main culprits.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: The main hedge funds out there at present are Millennium, citadel you hear about them quite a lot Baljasny and Point72, millennium and Citadel, by far the biggest.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So just Millennium has about half a trillion dollars there, 500 billion dollars at risk.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Citadel is 400 billion dollars.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: These are big right.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: These are like big banks shadow banks, I call them because they're largely unregulated there.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks for all the ones there.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that and, as I said, I've done a full video in the works on this to come out a little bit later for you guys who want to study this a bit more.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So what are you going to buy and sell for if you're a long-term investor, like most of you are right.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: So I did something for about two or 3000 of you last Saturday where I gave up my, my, my Saturday to teach you guys and give you some real insight about what the most successful investors out there do, how they select stocks, quality stocks in these scenarios, when do we buy, when do we sell.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to run something similar again for you this Saturday because so many of you asked me to do it again and I love your desire to learn.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Am I going to do this every week?
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: No, because I also enjoy my Saturdays.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: But yeah, and you will literally learn, it's completely free of charge.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I've opened up 2000 slots for you felixfrenzelogcom, where you can get access to that, and there is a link down here below.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I also put it in the chat for you.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: There it is and I'll pin it to the channel so you can click on that.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Mo here and he said look, I got to share a big mental win.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: He wrote that yesterday I finally decided to listen to all teachings and for the first time in months, I can sleep in peace.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: And that's really my goal for you is yeah, come out of this as a winner, make lots of money, retire earlier and do really well, but also just get that peace of mind.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: And there's a few more.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I literally just screenshot this.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Two hours ago.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Lynn joined us in January and said I've saved all my gains from the previous rally.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: I'm in 100% cash at the moment.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I would have been in a very place if I wasn't here, paul.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Another one of the students replies I'm so grateful for this course and all the coaches Started in January.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Myself, I have a few small gains, holding 100% cash here.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Keep up the good work.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Stop losses, boss, which is really the risk management that we teach.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: So, by the way, you don't need to join us.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: You don't need to become a student of mine.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: None of that.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I just want to give you some real free value here to help everybody get through this tough spot here.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Paul says it's the first time since 2000 I'm actually in control of my portfolio.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Would it feel good to be in control of your portfolio right now?
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Because, let's face it, most of us are not right.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Breaking old habits is hard.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Paul says he's a lovely guy, so come and join me on Saturday, completely free, for about 90 minutes, maybe two hours.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you how do we pick those great long-term stocks, because, amidst all the noise and the crash and the tariffs, there are amazing companies out there that are going to do incredibly well over the next couple of years and they're going to build this tremendous wealth and allow many of you to retire earlier than you thought, better than you thought, sleep better at night and just have more wealth and more time, freedom and everything else that comes with having a good portfolio.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: So, felix Rensselaer, it's where you sign up for that.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: As I say, link is down below.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: If you're going to join me, put an R for a retire in the chat there, because I think that's really what most of us are gaming for, right.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: So put an R in the chat if you're going to join me on Saturday, and I'm excited to see you there and I love running these sessions.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: It's just a little intense preparing for them sometimes.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: So, seeing some R's there, love that.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Brilliant.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Intense preparing for them sometimes.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: So, uh, seeing some hours there, love that, brilliant.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Now, um, mark says totally agree, my embedded old habits are creating havoc for me, exactly, and mike is joining me and scott's joining us and and t booth and there's a lot of us.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, the hours are coming in too fast.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Uh, to to um to read out.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: And paul dav, my friend, you seem to have the same weird musical ear, so you write arrr.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: So I wanted to find some good news, right?
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: So I found this Walmart pulls quarterly operating income forecast citing Trump tariffs.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Is that good news?
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: No, so you're going to start to see that more from businesses that are very import dependent and they're going to just go.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: We don't know which way this're going to start to see that more from businesses that are very import dependent and they're going to just go.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: We don't know which way this is going to go.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: We don't know what our cost basis is going to be.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: If the TVs we sell get 100% more expensive, then we probably won't have the same margins on those things.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: So not a good sign and it's sort of an early.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a bit of a canary in the coal mine for a potential recession there.