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Dec 18 | Commodity Week · Commodity Week

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: This is the December 18 edition of Commodity Week. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Well, welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Kurt Kimmel.
• 0:19
  He is with agmarket.net. Greg Johnson is here too from TGM, that's Total Grain Marketing, and from Strategic Farm Marketing online at sfarmmarketing.com. We're joined by Dave Chatterton. Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, W I L L A G dot O R G.
• 0:43
  Let's get a list of items that we might need to discuss for the day. We'll start with you, Dave Chatterton. What's on your list?
• 0:50
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. Just real quick, Merry Christmas to all of all in the studio here and everyone listening out there. I three think big things in agricultural or the grain markets currently. I think one is obviously China and how much they're going to buy, when they're going to buy and how the trade agreement will unfold. Two of course is going to be South America and when I say South America, in particular the weather in Brazil and Argentina and what it means for the potential of what looks like a record crop brewing in that part of the world.
• 1:18
  And three I think is corn demand really. I mean it's wow is a good word to put to it. It's been very impressive. But holding that pace I think may be an issue and something we need to look forward going to. And then finally, maybe the January report is something we ought to talk about and it's coming up here and not too awful long.
• 1:35
  Todd Gleason: Kurt Kimmel, he covered the gamut. Anything else
• 1:37
  Curt Kimmel: on Oh your boy, we could go a whole day seminar with that there, Dave. Pretty well covered. Maybe one other factor, outside market activity, consumer confidence maybe.
• 1:47
  Todd Gleason: And finally, Greg Johnson, anything in the grain markets cash side that we ought to take, maybe take and pay attention to?
• 1:55
  Greg Johnson: Well, to what Dave said, not only do we need to monitor Chinese soybean purchases, but there's some rumors late in the week that China might be interested in US corn for the first time in several, several years. So that's something that it's one of those wild cards, one of those unexpected things that you just never know but, you know, it's good to keep in mind that something unexpected could happen in this marketplace.
• 2:16
  Todd Gleason: Well, let's start with China and China and China to begin with because there are a whole lot of things that have not been happening, some that have happened. I think they have purchased maybe a bit more than half of the expectation, somewhere around 7,000,000 metric tons. Is that right, Dave Chatterton of soybeans?
• 2:33
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. I think that's the current going estimate. Of course, we're still waiting on some of those sales to become public in terms of how they move between COFCO US and COFCO China and finally make it onto the USDA's wire. It's generally thought that they have gotten to at least a 7,000,000 metric ton or a little bit over the half of that 12,000,000 metric ton commitment. I think just looking at the price action, the rally that we had after the trade deal was announced in late October and kind of peaking out last month and kind of where we have come back to really I think we are on the backside of the announcement.
• 3:04
  And the 12,000,000 metric tons, keep in mind that's great. That's demand we didn't have. They were at zero. I think it is a foregone conclusion or it's accepted conclusion that they're going to reach that level. It may not be right away.
• 3:16
  What they buy may not ship until later next year certainly. But the question is then what? And I think if you look at that 12,000,000 metric tons, that's four forty million bushels give or take. Keep in mind last year they bought eight eighty million metric tons. So we still have less than half of what they did a year ago.
• 3:35
  We have a very big I guess I'll call it a hole to fill here in terms of how we are going to make up for that additional demand. Certainly, Record Crush is helping to do that. We have some non Chinese export destinations that we can talk about. But when it comes to that soybean export whether it's The US, whether it's Brazil, whether it's Argentina, any other country, it's China. And when China is not buying from The US, we have some issues that we need to take account of.
• 4:01
  Todd Gleason: As Dave said, in the recent time, China has purchased in that eight eighty million bushel amount, around 24,000,000 metric tons. They say they're going to buy 25 in whatever calendar year they're talking about, whether it's U. S. Or the Chinese calendar year coming up, will they be in the marketplace? It seems to me, from my perspective, that is a very big if about next fall, and a zero for some time would be really bad.
• 4:35
  How soon does the market get concerned about such things in the new crop year and what are you thinking about it?
• 4:41
  Curt Kimmel: Well, near term, they need to stop buying because every time there is a sales announcement, the market goes down. So we're fulfilling those prior commitments. The big thing is we need to help in Asia from the private sector right now. It's the government replacing stocks. So if we could see some demand pickup, we will hopefully look into next year and see that fulfill that need for the most part.
• 5:07
  But we got South America coming online and they will be in the market here in another two or three months. So when you push on out past the spring, it's kind of questionable. But right now, the USDA or WASDE is showing a carryout of two ninety million bushel and if we don't see weather concerns, the Southern Hemisphere is going be awful hard to move back higher.
• 5:28
  Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson, related to the January report and the WASDE, the update that will come from them starting with the May World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate, USDA has not really backed off on their exports. Either they got it right then and understood how many soybeans China might buy and or what the ancillary costs might be to other places, meaning there would be other purchases, or an adjustment still has to be made at some point.
• 6:01
  Greg Johnson: It I I'm in the camp that an adjustment still has to be made at some point in time. Keep in mind, we haven't seen the details of this agreement. There's a lot of people that think that this 12,000,000 metric ton purchase this year, 25,000,000 metric ton in subsequent years, has a stipulation that they will buy that only if we are the lowest price if that's a price competitive price that we're offering. Otherwise, they do not have to purchase that entire amount And given what happened the first trade agreement, they did not buy that amount because we were higher priced than Brazil. So I think that's still a big concern is, you know, yes, that's in the agreement, but what other terms are in the agreement?
• 6:43
  Nobody has seen the agreement and so we don't know whether they're committed to buy it, you know, price insensitive or if the price is a factor in how many bushels they in fact do are required to buy.
• 6:54
  Todd Gleason: Okay. So if we're thinking in those terms, Dave Chatterton, how should a producer approach what they have left to sell for the twenty five-twenty six crop year?
• 7:05
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. Think in a general reference, producers have sold more beans than corn and at this point, I think that's a good thing. As Kurt alluded to, really if you're talking about what's going to rally the soybean market from here, it's either China getting more active and more aggressive and when we look at the signs and Greg kind of pointed to this, if you look at the port stocks in China, they're near record highs. You look at how U. S.
• 7:28
  Beans compare to South American beans and after the first of the year, they look very expensive. If you look at crush margins in China, they're not necessarily great. If you look at what they're trying to do with their hog herd and shrink those numbers, there's not a big and easy path there that has them buying US soybeans beyond this 12,000,000 metric ton commitment which we think they're going to get to. At that point, it's a political I think proposition. They're going to buy as many beans from The US as they think they need to in order for Trump to keep the tariff in check on the billions and billions and billions of dollars of consumer goods that they export to The US.
• 8:11
  So it's really kind of soybeans are caught as a little bit of a game. I think in that situation with no weather handle right now to really work with in terms of the South American crop, You have to be very defensive here and we've seen that action here of corn stabilizing, going higher, beans going lower and really I'm afraid that we have some additional downside. I think you have to be a pretty opportunistic marketer of soybeans, whether that's old crop or new crop going forward. And we can talk about the acreage mix and some other things in there. But it's a delicate dance and hopefully, you're going to have to be certainly more aggressive pulling the trigger on soybeans I think than corn here.
• 8:47
  Curt Kimmel: We've got really on the beans, two types of markets or two different scenarios. Here in the East, most of producers sold beans right across the scale, elvirs for the most part about 70%, 80%. Normally what they take it in. As far as the West, they pretty well stored them or found a home for them because the basis was $1.1.5 dollars under. So this Chinese demand out of the Pacific Northwest needs to materialize here to get those beans moved out of that Northwest area.
• 9:15
  As far as here, I think you make cash grain sales. You come back in and replace some call strategies because basically option volatility is fairly low. You can get a lot of bang for your dollar if we run into some weather conditions here in the Midwest during the growing season. Greg, of
• 9:32
  Todd Gleason: the customer base at TGM in Champaign County, how are they doing on making sales? I know you told us on the air that they did a good job at $11 Yeah.
• 9:42
  Greg Johnson: Yeah. Kurt and Dave are both right. Soybean sales are much better percentage wise than corn at this point. It might be in that 50% to 60%. I don't know if they're 70% sold on old crop beans.
• 9:53
  Maybe some people are in further east. But I would say in our territory, 50% to 60% which is pretty good. There were high storage charges in the fall, big carries in the market. Farmers didn't want to pay those storage charges. So if they didn't have their own on farm storage, a lot of beans got sold across the scale for cash flow purposes.
• 10:11
  And at that point, there was pretty good export demand for corn so farmers were tight holders of corn and they still remain tight holders of corn. So I agree. I think the beans have been very well marketed and now this dollar sell off is just a reminder and we try to remind people this is why we have offers in. If we thought $11 was good, keep that offer in because the next time they bounce back up, you have to have offers in. They just don't stay there very long.
• 10:37
  Todd Gleason: Okay. So let's look southward to South America. Brazil and Argentina, Brazil had had some difficulties. There were some thoughts that things might turn dry enough that it would be a problem. Clearly not the case according to all the meteorologists at this point.
• 10:54
  They've gotten wet. And Eric Snodgrass, others are saying it's not that they are just wet, it's that if they stay wet, that's when they get to have a problem at this point in time. Otherwise, they have got a heck of a crop running.
• 11:06
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. I mean the conversation there were a few dry areas in Southern Brazil to get started. The rainy season started a little bit slow but it has really accelerated and now the problem is, are we going to have too much rain when it comes time to start harvesting? And we have got a few combines rolling in, let's say, Northern Mato Grosso right now. It's a very small amount but that will pick up speed here as we go through the December into January.
• 11:30
  And I would say that come that February, you could probably say that Mato Grosso is going harvest somewhere between 800 to eight fifty, 900,000,000 bushels of beans. So they're going be coming rather quickly assuming they're not out. But crop estimates remain high. Keep in mind they increased their acreage a little over 3% again this year. We don't have the problems in Argentina that we did last year in terms of their weather and their potential production.
• 11:56
  Probably a little bit more of a corn issue but when you look at combined Brazil and Argentina together, throwing Uruguay, Paraguay, we're looking on paper anyway. It looks like what will be the fourth year in a row of record soybean production in South America. And that's a direct competitor to The U. S. Obviously, know that China's preference has been for those South American beans to this point.
• 12:16
  So there are some whisper numbers out there that Brazil could see its first ever 180,000,000 metric ton soybean crop. Now, we're probably a little bit below that. I think agmarket.net and some of the others as well. But certainly the miss here seems to be on the high side for that bean crop at the moment.
• 12:34
  Todd Gleason: Do you suppose we have weather premium built into the marketplace from earlier in the year still? Some of the the drop in, I guess, first explain the 60¢ to a dollar drop that we've had in in the in the soybean market and what you think precipitated that. Is it better weather in Brazil? Is it the idea that China may or may not finish out their 12,000,000 metric tons by the time we get to, well, it was supposed to be now, but February? What or combination?
• 13:05
  What are you thinking?
• 13:06
  Curt Kimmel: Yeah, I think it's all the above. Back in October, we had a breakout and the market went straight up on anticipation of some type of deal being struck. I'm not quite for sure if Asia did not come in as a fund and hedge that purchase and bought it. Now when they're actually physically buying the product here, they're taking the hedge off, having the market drift lower. But yeah, we've got favorable weather and the trade pretty well is dialed in that this bean crop in the Southern Hemisphere is going to be available and it's going be a buck, buck 20 cheaper.
• 13:41
  Greg Johnson: We need to keep in mind too that while we were getting this rally, the government was shut down so we weren't getting commitment to traders reports from the CFTC. Come to find out, now that we're back up and running, the funds amassed the second largest long position in history in soybeans. And so I think a lot of the paper trade happened ahead of the actual announcements of the sales to China. So the funds were long and the old rule of thumb is to fade the funds. When they were as long as they were, obviously in hindsight, that would have been the perfect time to sell beans.
• 14:17
  Todd Gleason: Are they still long?
• 14:19
  Greg Johnson: They are. They they we've commitment numbers up through December 2. We're still not entirely current, but we're getting closer to the current numbers. And they've sold off quite a bit, but they're still very long. There's still more room for downside if they decide to liquidate the rest of that long position.
• 14:37
  Todd Gleason: Is that a 45Z and renewable diesel thing coming into the tax year that goes into place January 1?
• 14:45
  Dave Chatterton: I think it could be to part on that, Todd. I mean, that's certainly part of the equation here and we look at crushes as still holding in very well, but these bean oil stocks are starting to rise. I think it's a very different situation maybe than the 2024 where we knew the tax credits were going to expire and everybody was trying to push through as many as they possibly could. But price decline in beans I think is just simply it's money flow and funds. When you look to Greg's point, we had them at one point.
• 15:12
  It looks like they got long about net long, 230,000 contracts of soybeans. Two sixty would be the record that we have. And now they're starting to bleed that off but still long and as we estimated today, probably around 150,000 to 160,000 contracts. You can track the open interest on the CME soybean contracts and see that it went up a like amount. Think it was around 120,000 net contracts.
• 15:36
  So like I said, when I mentioned we're on the backside of that, I think now they're in that liquidation phase and unfortunately they have more to liquidate assuming we are going to not find a spark that gets the market going higher.
• 15:50
  Todd Gleason: You did scare me. I was thinking if they are still long, they have got liquidation yet to go and I don't know what that means for the downside potentially. Curt, I know you have been thinking about this for a while and have a good idea where the commercials have positioned themselves based on what you are hearing in the marketplace.
• 16:09
  Curt Kimmel: Well, the commercials hedge those off when they bought physical but open interest will go get down next week because we have the January options expiring and you will have January futures puts and calls all matching up so you have a natural drop in open interest on the beans or any product when the options expire.
• 16:31
  Todd Gleason: On the 45C, Greg Johnson, I know this is a little out of your bailiwick but during the Farm Assets Conference, Scott Irwin was talking about biofuels on SAF which could be soybeans, but more likely jet to alcohol or alcohol to jet. For SAF, he's actually bearish at this point, but on just an ethanol plant, 45z has about 32¢ by his calculation that will be, in his words, helicoptered into ethanol plants starting January 1. One, have you heard about that? And two, will it impact bases or is it already for corn?
• 17:16
  Greg Johnson: Well, number one, that's a proposal. I think the Trump administration is trying to walk a fine line between pleasing big oil and pleasing big ag. You know, obviously, big oil does not wanna see this. Big ag does. So we don't know how that's gonna all shake out at this point.
• 17:34
  Yes. If if everything comes to fruition, that would be friendly corn, but I think this gets kicked down the road for several, several, several more months. I don't think that's anything you want to base your marketing strategy on at this point.
• 17:50
  Todd Gleason: Now on corn, what are your thoughts?
• 17:54
  Greg Johnson: Export demand is excellent. Now we have the China rumors that they may be buying or wanting to buy corn off the Pacific Northwest. So even if that's not true, the actual export numbers we've seen have been very good. There's even talk about increasing exports to 3,200,000,000 bushels which would have been unheard of a year ago. So good export demand, farmers are tight holders of corn, High input costs mean we should plant less corn here.
• 18:23
  South America is growing corn but they use a lot of that for their own ethanol production. And the lateness to the bean crop isn't going to hurt the South American bean crop but it could affect the timing of the corn second crop corn planting, which could turn that corn into pollinating during the dry season. So there's a lot of potentially friendly things out there and I think that's why people are a little bit more willing to hold on to corn and have sold beans and thank goodness we did sell as many beans as we did.
• 18:53
  Todd Gleason: When you're talking to customers, Dave Chatterton, what are you telling them about the corn they have left in the bin? Because clearly they do. I also kind of want to hear about what you think grain stocks for corn are going to look like.
• 19:06
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. I mean we're I guess concerned holders of corn at the moment. The market has been range bound here and call nearby futures in the March roughly a $2.35 to a $2.5 type of a pricing range on the board. And basis has been okay. It depends on the part of the belt that you're in.
• 19:27
  But we're somewhat optimistic about corn but I think you have to watch the demand cues to Greg's idea that we've had I don't know, I guess an 8¢ move here in the last two days on these rumors of China taking some cargos off the PNW. I hope I'm wrong about this but boy, just don't see them taking any sizable amount of U. S. Corn. They are sitting on a domestic crop that is a record crop for them, large stocks, cheap prices, hog margins are poor.
• 19:55
  It may happen but and maybe it does. But we are in a situation where U. Export demand, if you look at the weekly numbers, we are starting to slow the pace down a little bit. We were on fire early and I think I used the word wow. It is starting to slow down and we're now with the USDA again in that December report raising the export target another 125,000,000.
• 20:18
  We're starting to get at a pace where we're balancing exports where their projection is at. So the question becomes how do we get that higher and I think that's a very tough ask at this particular point.
• 20:28
  Curt Kimmel: Yeah, corn is going be a hot topic. As Greg mentioned, one other thing, ethanol. Ethanol demands crushing for a lot of ethanol. We're using ethanol. Ethanol stocks are lower.
• 20:40
  So the demand side is real good. As Dave mentioned here, if you look at a chart, we're sideways between $2.35 and $0.5 you go back to that Southern Hemisphere weather, not this crop but that second supreme corn crop. If we get into a situation where they have a little bit of weather scare and all of a sudden, we get optimistic, we poke out that higher end, I think the funds will jump on it. Oftentimes funds or investors look for undervalued commodities when you compare corn and beans to gold, silver and some of these the Dow or any other investment, grain market is fairly reasonably undervalued.
• 21:19
  Todd Gleason: Can you make a case as well for both corn and soybeans to go higher or will soybeans act as a drag on the corn market in your opinion?
• 21:27
  Greg Johnson: I agree with Dave. We've been in this trading range. We're about 15¢ off of the top end of the trading range. I think March corn's up 4.4 four, four point four five and the high has been 4.6. So I'm friendly.
• 21:40
  Can we get to 4.6? Yes. Should we be selling corn when it gets to $4.60? Yes. I mean, so yes.
• 21:46
  I think we're going to wait for the January 12 crop report. Let's hope that they lower the yield and let's hope they don't lower the feed demand just quite yet. And if they do, we might be able to get a bounce, but this is not the beginning of a bull market. This is an opportunity to get old crop corn and maybe even some new crop corn sold.
• 22:05
  Todd Gleason: That brings me back to the grain stocks report because we'll know what first quarter usage looks like or at least what's in the bin. A pretty good accounting from USTA's side. We have had avian influenza. We have, the smallest cattle herd on record. Lots of things going across the border but that's not being fed here.
• 22:28
  Feed and residual number is going to be an interesting one to keep track of in this case.
• 22:33
  Curt Kimmel: Well, the feed and residual use, you got to remember that's a miscellaneous category. That's always a tough one to figure. But when you look at, yes, influenza but on the cattle on feed and they're actually feeding at a heavier weight. We're feeding a lot of grain. But two, the corn exports, we're moving a lot of corn to Mexico to feed out feeders and fats down to Mexico too.
• 22:57
  So I think this corn market overall has got some real good support there and I think it's just going offer some opportunities here to get some catch up sales after the first year when you need some additional cash dollars to pay some bills.
• 23:09
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. So the grain stocks will give us a feed and residual number but of course the WASI will have a feed number in it. Greg hopes that it stays the same in January. I don't know. That sounds like it's pretty helpful to me but Merry Christmas.
• 23:26
  Dave Chatterton: I think it is hopeful. I mean, as you mentioned, Todd, smallest on feed cattle supply since the 1950s. We are to Curt's point taking these cattle heavier or pushing 1,600 pounds. Maybe we're feeding those cattle an additional, I don't know, 20 bushels of corn if you do the math. But we're also slaughtering 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 less cattle per year.
• 23:46
  So there's a give and take in that. And you look at the USDA's demand profile in corn right now, they have got exports up 12% versus last year, feed up 12% versus last year with that animal number that we just spoke of and they have got ethanol up a more modest 3%. Overall demand is up 7.5%, 8% year on year and that is the bar I think that we are trying to get to. And for whatever the USDA may add on to exports, I think they take it away from feed and that is probably their thesis going forward. So we have got corn is a situation of very good demand but we also produced a record crop and we're in balance with that but it doesn't leave us a room to really rally above that $4.5 mark in my opinion.
• 24:27
  Todd Gleason: Given all the adjustments, yield, exports, feed usage, 2,000,000,000 still as a carryout in your opinion?
• 24:35
  Dave Chatterton: I think it creeps up eventually towards 2.3 or 2.4. The USDA is expected to cut yield here come January. Now the biggest non major drought year or maybe throughout the flood year of 1993, the biggest cut that we have seen in that January report for corn yield is about 3%. And if they followed that, we would get to a 180 type of a yield. You take almost $500,000,000 off of the top line of production.
• 24:59
  I'm not saying that they do that but that's your historical precedent. If they back off somewhere in the middle of that, we do improve the balance sheet a little bit. But I think over time, we're going to end up unfortunately coming up a little bit short in terms of the feed you should side And I think ethanol is a question mark. Although we're producing a record amount of ethanol, we're using less corn to do that. These guys have gotten more efficient and effectively the ethanol yield or the conversion rate from corn to ethanol is above three gallons a bushel.
• 25:28
  We need this demand to continue. It's like you just can't let up on the accelerator here. All of a sudden, those stocks start to creep a little bit. So two, four don't let that scare you. I think maybe that could happen over time.
• 25:42
  We will see what the USDA has to say in January. But the biggest support that we have got right now is the demand is good and the USDA might cut yield. But the opportunity window isn't forever. You have to be you have to have a plan and It's stay still
• 25:53
  Todd Gleason: a out but ending stocks from both of you?
• 25:56
  Curt Kimmel: Yeah, I think we're below 2,000,000,000 bushel myself. I think demand is going to offset some other adjustments along with some smaller yield. But the thing is, we can talk bigger or smaller but to get real bullish corn, you got to have that ending stocks clear down to 1.5, 1.4 to get the trade excited.
• 26:17
  Greg Johnson: I think I'm right in the middle at 2.021. Hopefully we get the two point zero or 1.9 number in January and then if Dave says we go higher eventually month by month, we get up eventually to two point three, two point four, hopefully the farmers have taken advantage of that little price rally that we get when that number comes out below 2,000,000,000 bushels. Like I say, the big picture is without a weather problem, we still have an ample supply of corn. We need to sell it at some point in time, so why not sell it at the upper end of the range? I'm not looking for new highs to be made.
• 26:50
  I want to sell corn at the upper end of this range that we've been in for several months.
• 26:53
  Todd Gleason: Is there anything on the global side for corn, soybeans or wheat stocks for that matter that you see of concern or that gives you hope?
• 27:04
  Dave Chatterton: Well, I mean wheat stocks globally among the major exporters are just too large and we continue to see wheat kind of consolidate around the bottom of its recent trading range. We're heading into a situation I think from a farmer perspective or a marketing perspective in 2026 where if you look at the global stocks, especially among the world's exporters, are going to be heavy wheat and they are going to be heavy corn and they look like they could be pretty heavy in soybeans. Now, the global corn picture will depend a lot on what happens with Brazil's safrinha crop which they haven't even planted yet. So we have a ways to go on that. And one thing maybe we haven't talked about so far is acreage for next year.
• 27:42
  And of course, there is a big expectation that corn acres will come down in The US. Bean acres will go up. We will have a rotation of from where we were a year ago. But I guess I'm a little cautious on that statement. I think if you look at the margins for a lot of the smaller grains, so if you look at cotton, if you look at rice, if you look at what's happening in the Southeast, the Delta and the Plains, they don't have very many good choices.
• 28:05
  So maybe we get a few more corn acres than I think the trade is thinking or maybe the better way to say it is the corn acres don't go down quite as much as what the trade has thought about.
• 28:12
  Todd Gleason: Are you above 94,000,000 acres?
• 28:16
  Dave Chatterton: I think it's I don't think I'm above that number, but I don't think I'm a lot below it.
• 28:22
  Todd Gleason: Numbers from the two of you, what do you think for corn acres?
• 28:25
  Curt Kimmel: I think we're at four.
• 28:27
  Todd Gleason: And Greg?
• 28:28
  Greg Johnson: I agree. We were 98.7. I mean, so 94 is almost a 5,000,000 acre drop and that's a pretty good shift from year to year.
• 28:35
  Todd Gleason: What do we get for soybean numbers if we have a 94? We have a lot of acres that we could have big soybean numbers still, suppose.
• 28:43
  Dave Chatterton: Oh yeah. You could see that thing jump from 81 to 85, 'eighty six and I mean my fear is that we see corn not fall as much as is expected and beans of course take the big jump that's been indicated. That's a what if. There's a lot of time to go on that situation. When we're on the path I guess to get back to where we started of assuming weather is not horrible.
• 29:06
  We're going to keep producing these big crops and we're going to keep adding to our stocks.
• 29:10
  Greg Johnson: Let's turn our attention to the final word from each of you. Greg Johnson from TGM Total Grain Marketing right here in Champaign County. Your final word for the day. I think this sell off in soybeans is a good reminder to producers to have offers in to take advantage of those times when the market does spike up because without a weather problem somewhere in the world, we're growing too much corn and soybeans for the demand. So have your offers in at realistic levels, use the upper end of this trading range for corn and soybeans, we've probably seen our highs unless we have a weather problem.
• 29:43
  You're just going have to lower your sights and get those rest of the beans sold at lower values.
• 29:47
  Todd Gleason: Kurt Kimmel from agmarket.net.
• 29:49
  Curt Kimmel: Yeah, that's well said, Greg. From a speculative point of view, I'd maybe take a stab on the long side of the beans and put a sell stop underneath this week's low here. The beans have returned to the point of the breakout to the upside from last October. So if you're one that likes to roll the dice and look for an opportunity, I would maybe take a look at that. Otherwise, have a safe and enjoyable holiday.
• 30:11
  Todd Gleason: And Dave Chatterton from Strategic Farm Marketing.
• 30:14
  Dave Chatterton: Yeah, to Kurt's point, mean the sell off that we've had in beans, I think you want to be a little bit even though I've talked probably as bearish as any of the three of us here today, I think you have to be a little bit cautious about being too bearish here in the near term just considering how much we've fallen and how oversold we've become and we're going into a holiday period. Having said that, that doesn't mean fall asleep at the wheel. Think I always talk to our clients in terms of marketing of being either offensive or defensive in terms of the prices and the goals that they're looking for. I think it's still very much a time to be playing defense, particularly with soybeans over corn, but really even in both cases.
• 30:51
  Todd Gleason: Commodity Week of course is a production of Illinois Public Meeting. May find and listen to the whole of the program anytime you'd like on our website at willag.org. That's willag.org. Our thanks go to our panelists this week, Kurt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton and Greg Johnson. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.