Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Slim Pickins | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/28/26

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Thursday BEST BETS | Slim Pickins | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/28/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man. But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice? Now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold up.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports for Thursday May twenty eighth. It's a small
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: board today. We went one to one on the show
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: yesterday it should have been two. And oh we got
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: the under in the first five innings, correct with Anaheim
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: and Detroit. Detroit did tack on a run in the
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: bottom of the fifth, but it was three to nothing
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: at that point and they wound up winning four to
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: nothing in the game, so the full game went under.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: The bullpens actually held, which I was worried about, obviously,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: but either way, that was a good play. Wnba. What
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: do you want me to say? Man, I was right
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: about every other side in the WNBA game in the
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: WNBA games, and I was correct about the under in
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: the Washington Seattle game. So I was right about the
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: under in that game. I was right about the side
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: in that game. I was right about the side and
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: all the other games. The only other thing I wasn't
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: right about was I led to the under in the
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Atlanta Minnesota game. That was wrong. Everything else was right.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: And you cannot possibly tell me that that was the
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: wrong side with Connecticut there, you can't. You can't do it. Connecticut,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: we had plus six and a half on them. They
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: were winning the game outright by five with eight minutes left,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: and then what do they do. Oh yeah, they proceeded
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: to not score for like a five minute span, and
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: then they only scored two points across like a seven
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: minute span. So they're winning the game outright by five
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: with eight minutes left, one minute left in the game,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: and they only have two more points. And even at
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: that point, I think they were actually still covering. I
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: think they were down six. And then you know, intentional
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: fouls whatever. It's such bullshit, dude, Connecticut won the rebound
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: battle in the game. I think substantially. They had ten
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: more field goal attempts in the game, and they couldn't
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: even cover as a six and a half point dog.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: They also hit one three pointer in the entire game
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: one and I believe their opponent hit whatever it was,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: eight or nine Connecticut one three pointer in the whole game.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Like they shot whatever it was five percent from three
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: point range. It's unbelievable. And they were horrible at the
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: free throw line. Again. They had another like fifty five
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: percent free throw shooting performance, which is basically like, I
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: know it's the WNBA, but like I think in the WNBA,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: they're not that bad at free throw shooting, Like even
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: the worst team in the league can't sustain a free
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: throw percentage that's that low. But they just did it
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: two games in a row. There were so many things
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: that had to go wrong in that game for them
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: to not even cover. I mean, they probably could have
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: won the game outright. I'm pissed about that. That was
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: absolutely the correct side. I don't know what else to
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: say about it. It's one of the worst beats that
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: you'll see. Man, that is easily the worst beat in
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: the WNBA. I should be undefeated in the WNBA. Still
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: they still only want to lose in the game by
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: ten after all that, and it shouldn't have even been
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: that bad. So ridiculous, dirty sock. What's up, Tyson? What's up? Well?
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: I mean the Avs. Yeah, the Avs. I don't think
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: it was the same really, because I mean, the Avs
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: did not really take that bad of a beat, although
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: they outplayed Vegas and at least two or three of
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: those games, but this was like something else, Like it
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: was almost impossible for Connecticut to not cover that game. Kyle,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All right, we'll get
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: into today. I think my play is in the first game.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: I have one play. It's in baseball. It is in
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: we're going back to Anaheim Detroit. We're going back to
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: another total here, So then everybody could just leave after
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: they get my play, they won't get my analysis on
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: the rest of the baseball board and WNBA and NBA
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: we're gonna go over in this game. I found it
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: at eight and a half minus one twelve at FD.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: If you want to call the book that, we'll call it.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Call it call it the Burr Hamilton Book. I think
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: it's a decent number on it eight and a half's
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: are out there. You might have to pay a little
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: bit more for it, but getting it at a lower
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: price than nine I think is good. But I think
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be a high scoring game. I know
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: it's getaway day, and sometimes there's distractions like distracted hitting.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: These teams, you know they have to get away. Detroit's
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: gonna be playing the White Sox next, which is a
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: decent divisional series. Anaheim playing Tampa Bay that's also kind
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: of a big series. So could these teams be distracted, maybe,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: But this is to win the series, man, so I
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: think there still should be focused here. Because Detroit won yesterday,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Anaheim won the game before that, so whoevery wins this
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: game does win the series. Both bullpens are bad, so
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: that's fine for an over even though Anaheim only is
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: one relief pitcher yesterday Detroit. Let me say Detroit used four,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: so Detroit's bullpen, which is actually the better of the two,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: is more worked right now. Detroit twentieth in bullpen whip.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is awful twenty ninth. Hitting wise, these teams haven't
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: been great. As I pointed out yesterday, the Anaheim's twentieth
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: Detroit twenty second, but I think they can get some
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: runs off of these pitchers here. Grayson Rodriguez is starting
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: for the Angels. Obviously his numbers look terrible, but you
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: got to give him a little bit of a break
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: for that because he's coming back from missing over an
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: entire season with an injury, and he's on a new
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: team now. He started out with Baltimore. He's got a
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: ten point six one ERA two point one for a whip.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: I know it might look too easy to go over here.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: He's also got you know, he was worse in his
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: daytime game whatever. He's only pitched at home so far too,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: and yeah, you got to give him a little bit
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: of a break. Like I said, he had a really
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: bad start in his comeback against the Dodgers, but it's
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. Give him a little bit of a pass
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: for that. He pitched better in his next game against Texas,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: so he's trending in the right direction, but he wasn't
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: great in the game. And overall he has nine strikeouts,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: six walks, and he's allowed fourteen hits in nine to
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: third innings. So he's not fully back yet in my opinion.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: And Detroit has some good numbers off and even though
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: it's only fourteen at bat, only five hitters have faced
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: him two eighty six average, eight seventy three ohps, seven strikeouts,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: four walks. I know it's a small sample, and I
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: think he's actually the more likely of these pitchers to
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: pitch better here, but I'm gonna fade him anyway. I'm
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: gonna fade both these pitchers here and hope we get runs.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Jack Flaherty on the other side, not having a good
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: season for Detroit five point nine to four ERA, one
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: point six to six WHIP. He's been basically the same
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: home and away, not much of a difference. He did
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: pitch a little bit better in a couple of these
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: reasons starts. He had a decent start against Toronto here.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Last time out, he kind of got screwed by some
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: bad fielding. He only lasted three and a third innings
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore, though, and he had to throw seventy eight pitches,
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, no walks. Was actually good, but he allowed
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: eight hits in the game. Only three of the runs
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: he allowed or earned. But he's still not pitching well.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I know this month, twenty seven to seven strike out, walk,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: ratio that is actually really good one to two thirds innings.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: The strikeout rate is really high, the walk rates a
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: little bit high, but he's also been really hittable. He's
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: allowed twenty seven hits that Detroit has lost, however many
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: games in a row. This is seven of his starts
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: in a row. His overall numbers don't look that good
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: to me. Really, more than one hit a lot per inning.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Walk rate is really high, like more than one every
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: two winnings. Strike out rate is good, so he is
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: still striking guys out. I don't think that's enough though.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: And his numbers against Anaheim in fifty nine at bats,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: although a lot of them are Adam Frazier, not really
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: good numbers here, three zero five batting average. I know
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: the OPS is slightly below that threshold of seven point
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: fifty seven forty nine. But like I said in the title,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: it's slim pickings today a man. So I almost passed
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: on the entire day, but I was like, eh, let's
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: play an over here, hopefully we can get it. I mean,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: on a normal day, maybe I wouldn't have this on
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: my card. So I don't know. Nineteen to five strike
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio for Flaherty there, but yeah, yeah, I
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: think we can get this done with an over here,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: so that's what we're gonna do. That's my only play
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: over eight and a half. Anaheim Detroit, Gerald, what's up?
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out? Yes, my Leans, Kyle, what's up? Yeah?
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: The Leans? Eileen. Minnesota and the White Sox is the
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: next game. These teams are finishing a series as well here.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: This is a four game series. The White Sox have
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: won two of the three. White Sox won fifteen to
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: two yesterday, so you could make the argument it's a
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: little bit of a Minnesota bounce back spot here. Minnesota
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: is playing Pittsburgh starting tomorrow. I don't know if that's
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: a big look ahead spot or not. Really. White Sox
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: have to play Detroit, and Detroit has been a staple
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: of this division, so maybe that's more of a look
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: I had there. Even though Detroit's not playing well. This
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: is a This is kind of a difficult game to
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: figure out though. The White Sox used two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: although Richards for four innings could be available again, he
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: hadn't pitched in days. Minnesota used a couple of relief
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: pitchers as well, Neither of these bullpens is good. White
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: Sox are twenty fifth, Minnesota twenty eighth. White Sox offense
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: is good. The ranked sixth moved up again after that
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: explosion yesterday. Minnesota is fourteenth. Minnesota is going with a
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: bullpen game. It looks like here with Kendrick Rojas listed
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: as their starter. He's got a one point two to
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: six ERA one point four to seven whip is not good.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: He hasn't pitched much, but he has a really really
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: high walk rate. He's got a good strikeout rate, and
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is pretty low. He's mostly pitched in
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: short ish outings Minnesota. Interestingly, he has won his last
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: four appearances, though every game he's appeared in they've won.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: One of these was actually a start. I don't remember
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: which one though, but he pitched pretty well really in
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: his last couple appearances here. He got his walk right down,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: didn't allow any runs across seven innings combined against Houston
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: and Boston. We don't know how long he's gonna go
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: in this game, though, Like if he's gonna go out
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: there and give you three innings or whatever and then
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: the bullpen is gonna come in, I don't think that's
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: really a good thing. I mean, it's not Minnesota's bullpen's
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: not good, So I don't really trust this setup here.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: I think it looks like it is basically a bullpen
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: game for Minnesota here. I don't like that. Obviously, White
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: Sox have never seen Rojas before. He is young. I
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: think this is his first season in the majors. He's
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: twenty three. I don't know. Again, the Minnesota pitching side
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: of this handicap is difficult. On the other side, Davis
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Martin is pitching for the White Sox. He's been really,
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: really good. Is surprisingly two point four ERA one point
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: oh two whip. He's been really good at home one
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: point one four home e RA. Wasn't that good in
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: his last outing against San Francisco. That was a game
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: where we lost an under but he got unlucky. I
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: would say he allowed four runs and five or two
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: thirds innings, but he only allowed six hits. That's not
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: that bad. Two walks, seven strikeouts. Most of the guys
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: that reach scored against him. I'm gonna give him a
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: pass for that. He's pitched really well otherwise, allowed no
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: more than two horned runs in any other start besides
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: his first start of the season. He's over one strikeout
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: per inning, below one hit per inning by quite a bit.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Walk rate is low. He's been good, and the White
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Sox have won seven starts in a row of his
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: and in fact, they've won nine of his ten starts,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: which is a good indicator potentially for the White Sox
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: side here. His numbers against Minnesota are not that good though,
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: fifty two at bats to sixty nine average, allowed seven
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: to sixty two ops, twelve strikeouts, nine walks. That is
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: too many walks. But he is pitching better now. So
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: the thing about that is I don't think he's faced
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: in Minnesota this year, and this year he seems to
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: have found something like he's definitely pitching better this year
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: than he ever has before. So those numbers don't necessarily
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: mean everything. I think I will lean White Sox here.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: The money's coming in against it, so I don't really
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: want to do it. I know Minnesota might have a
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: little bit more motivation here because they're trying to even
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: the series. White Sox possible look ahead to Detroit. I
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: don't really know about that, though White Sox are at
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty or so here eighty nine percent of tickets,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: ninety three percent of the cash on the White Sox,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: but they are public. The totals eight with money coming
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: towards the under. I don't really understand that. Oh by
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: the way. Yeah, and the other game that I just
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: talked about, I forgot to mention money looks like it is,
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: agreeing with that over the one that I gave out
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: in Anaheim Detroit eighty three percent of tickets, eighty six
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over, and the money
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: is fading Detroit as well, which I also agree with.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: That minus one twenty five is the price on Detroit,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent of tickets, sixty three percent of the
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: hash on Detroit. I don't know if I trust either
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: bullpen though, like you, I mean, I could see it
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: being a first five play, maybe more so on Anaheim,
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: even though I know they have the more rested bullpen.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: But their bullpen is bad, dude. But I think Rodriguez
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: could be a little bit under the radar here as
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: he tries to get back into form. He wasn't that
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: bad of a picture and he was on Baltimore though,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: and Flaherty looks like he is pretty bad right now,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: So I could see some arguments for Anaheim first five
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: there or even full game really a discord. I'm just
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: not even on discord that often. I mean, if I
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: set it up, I probably just wouldn't be in there
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: that much. I don't know. I'll consider it. Maybe it
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: could be uh, I don't know. I could make it
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: a bonus for Patreons or whatever. I don't know. I
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: gotta think about it. But then there won't be enough
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: people in there, so I don't know if I want
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: to do that. Maybe I'll have a discord with like
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: a bonus section in it, like a channel within it
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: or whatever for Patreon people. I don't even know what
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: would go on in there though. Maybe I focus on that,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: like I put more attend like as far as my interaction,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: maybe I interact more in that part of I don't know.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I gotta think about it. Braves Red Sox.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox finally got a win again. They broke
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: a losing streak with a nice eight nothing win yesterday.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: Connolly early was excellent in that game. I think he's
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: pretty good, dude. I mean, Atlanta had seen him once
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: and he pitched even better the next time. That's a
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: good sign. The Red Sox ended a four game losing streak.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: A lot of times when a team ends a losing streak,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: they will carry that momentum forward. The Red Sox hitting
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: is finally getting better, at least in the short term,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: while finally they got a good pitching performance again as well.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: But what's gonna happen in this game? I don't know.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: This game is the Rubbert match of the series. Now
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Atlanta plays Cincinnati next to the Red Sox play Cleveland next.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Both teams are going to Ohio next. I don't know
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: if that's a big deal or not. Probably not. Red
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Sox only used one relief pitcher yesterday, Atlanta used two.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are good. Atlanta's rank number one in WHIP.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Although you could make some arguments for some of these
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: other bullpens being a little bit better. Red Sox have
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: a better bullpend era. They're ranked sixth in WHIP, so
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: we have two good bullpens here. Atlanta's ranked third in
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: offense and the Red Sox are up to twenty ath Ay,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: that's not too bad. They're tied with Anaheim. Now, baby,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: that's not that bad. This is an interesting battle of
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: lefties here. Where one of them is like fourteen or
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: fifteen years older than the other one, even though they
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: both look like men. Chris Sale is pitching for Atlanta
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: against one of his former teams here the Red Sox.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: Sale is pitching well again not surprising one point eight
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: to nine ERA point eighty seven whip. He's been at
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: least touchable on the road. He's been basically untouchable at home.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: On the road, his ERA is almost three runs higher
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: at three point oh nine. He's allowed two runs total
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: at home, so on the road he is a little
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: bit worse, but he's still pitching really, really well. He's
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one outing,
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: which was a road outing at Anaheim. That was his
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: worst start by far, which is skewing all of his numbers.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. Their offense is doing better right now, though,
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: and they actually have okay numbers against Sale in thirty
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: six at bats, two seventy eight batting average, seven to
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: fifty ops, twelve strikeouts is a lot, though, and three walks.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: But the Red Sox have gotten to him a little bit.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: They've been able to hit him, so it is possible
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: that the Red Sox get to sail at least to
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: some extent here. Peyton totally is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: He's pitching well two point four to five ERA point
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: eight two whip. He's been slightly worse at home two
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: point six to five home ra It is a more
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: hitter friendly ballpark. He has not allowed more than three
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: earned runs in any of his outings. He did pitch
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta in that last series. Sale did not pitch
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: in that series. I don't believe totally did. Totally had
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: an eight inning, four hit, two run performance. His strikeout
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: rate was low though, three strikeouts in that one in
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: one walk, but it was still a good outing from him,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: and he got the win in that game as well,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: and he went deep and he was really efficient. He
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: only threw eighty five pitches, so that's good. They seem
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: to be keeping him on about an eighty eighty five
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: pitch count here, so how deep he goes is gonna
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: depend on his pitch count here. Now, like I said yesterday, though,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit of a concern because, like I said,
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: with Early, although Early wound up doing really well yesterday,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: you have to figure out, like what's gonna happen here
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: because Totally and Early both had the unfamiliarity edge the
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: two lefties, They both had an unfamiliarity edge in that
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: first series against Atlanta. Atlanta had never seen either of
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: them before. Now Atlanta has seen both of them. That
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: might help their hitters a little bit. But again, Early
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: did pitch well yesterday, because I think he's just good
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: enough that he was able to do that. Totally might
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: also be good enough. I mean, he's pitching well, so
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna necessarily say that I think he's gonna
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: do bad here. I don't really think so. He's allowed
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: way below one hit per inning. Walk rate is low
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: as well. His strikeout rate is also above one per inning.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is OH for twenty one off of him, with
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: only three strikeouts though and no walk So Atlanta's current
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: lineup OH for twenty one off of Totally. None of
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: them have reached base. That's insane. Obviously, that's not gonna continue.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna no hit Atlanta here, and
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: that means whoever got hits off him that other game is,
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: they're not even in Atlanta's lineup right now. Really really ridiculous.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, this game almost seems too obvious to look
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: towards an under here with two good bullpends, two pretty
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: good starting pitchers here, seven juice to the unders to
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: this total is dropping towards six and a half. I mean,
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: I guess it's warranted, but man, that's it's you're gonna
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: be on the razor's edge if you want to go
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: under here. I could see the argument for it, but
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: the money is actually disagreeing. Eighty two percent of tickets,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: fifty percent of the cash on it. Yesterday's game landed
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: right on the total of eight. I mean I could
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: still I still probably would lean under in this game. Uh,
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: but I just don't have a great opinion here. Atlanta
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: is also very public eighty nine percent of the tickets
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: and cash minus one thirty six here. I think again,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: you're paying a price for Atlanta and for sale here.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: But totally is good enough that the Red Sox can
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: stay in this game? You know what I mean?
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Uh?
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: Like, this could be a close game and you're getting
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox as an underdog at home and what's
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: suspected to be a low scoring game. Probably there is
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: some value looking towards grabbing the Red Sox as an
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: underdog here. I just hope they win because that's my team.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: But uh, I don't want to. I really don't want
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: to go against Atlanta either. But you did just see
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers. Sales matchup numbers are actually worse than
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: toll these years, So I think I will lean Red
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Sox in that game as well. The discord idea, Uh,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: I got to think about it. You were at the game,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Hell yeah, that must have been. That was probably a
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: good game to go to. I've been to some games
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: against the Braves back in the day, man, back when
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: the Braves had like Andrew Jones, Chipper Jones. You know.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I saw them at Fenway way back then out in
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: the bleachers where the hecklers were were heckling Andrew Jones.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: I remember it, dude, I don't know, like that's that's
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: something to yell when you're right around like what was
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: I was probably eleven twelve years old to it. And
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: there's a dude, drunk dude in the bleachers next to
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: me going, I know a guy, his name is Andrew.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: He likes to take it up the poop oo. I'm like, oh, man,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: making the gay jokes right there, and then I don't know, that.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: I forget who it was there. You guys might be
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: able to remind me. I think Atlanta had some other
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: outfielder because we were out close to right field than
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: he was yelling at the right fielder and the center fielder.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: There must have been an outfielder on Atlanta named Michael,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: but I forget who it was because I remember the
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: same guy was. I know a guy. His name is Michael.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: He likes to ride a seatless bicycle. I don't remember
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: who which player that was that he was yelling that at,
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: though it was some Braves outfielder though. Anyway, Yeah, that's
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Red Sox Braves history right there, all right. Toronto and Baltimore, Uh,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: these teams are starting a new series. Yes, you're correct, Pete,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: I think you're right. Michael Tucker, I think that is right.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Thank you. Yeah, that sounds right. I forgot about him.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Baltimore just swept Tampa Bay, so this is a new
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: series starting between Baltimore and Toronto. Baltimore could be in
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot here, I mean sweeping Tampa Bay, who's
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: still in first place in the Al East. That was big,
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: and like I said, the Yankees should be like buying
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: Baltimore a bunch of gifts right now, because the Yankees
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: were five and a half games on Tampa going into
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: that last series. Yankees swept whoever they were playing in
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, sorry Zach, and I believe they did, and
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Baltimore swept Tampa Bay out of that series. This could
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: be a letdown for Baltimore, although Toronto is still ahead
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: of Baltimore here, so maybe it's not. Maybe Baltimore will
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: still show up because it is a divisional series. They
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: are behind Toronto. Toronto is starting a road trip. Toronto
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: is coming off beating Miami, and when a team starts
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: a road trip, they usually are focused, so I think
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Toronto will be focused here. Spot looks a little bit
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: more negative for Baltimore, even though they are staying at home.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: I think it could be a letdown, so situation probably
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: favores Toronto a little bit, even though they're having to
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: travel here. Toronto used four relief pitchers yesterday. Toronto's bullpen
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: has actually started pitching decently. Baltimore used four as well.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: Toronto has the better bullpen. They're actually ranked ninth right now,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: al though their era is a bit worse than that,
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: but they're an okay bullpen. Baltimore's ERA they're at eighteenth
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: and whip and they're almost run worse ERA wise, so
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: Toronto has the better bullpen, Baltimore has the better offense.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's ranked twelfth right now, Toronto is twenty fourth. Patrick
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Korbman is pitching for Toronto. Kind of unfortunate, probably for them,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: because he actually had really good numbers against Miami and
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: did not pitch in that series, although they won the series. Anyway.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point eight six ERA, which isn't
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: too bad, but his one point four WHIP indicates his
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: ERA should be higher than that. He's putting too many
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: guys on base. He's been pretty good on the road though,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: three point two road RAM, and that's where he is
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: here today. He pitched really well in his last doubting
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh. That's a decent sign. I guess it was
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: a really good outing six innings, one run, five hits,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: no walks, seven strikeouts, so you could make an argument
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: he's in decent form right now, but he's still allowed
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: more than one hit per inning this month. His strikeout
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is still not really that good. Over the
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: course of the season, he's got a low strikeout rate.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: He's not a strikeout pitcher. He's been too hit able.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: He's allowed over one hit per inning. His walk rate
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: is not horrible. A lot of times I think it
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: is worse than that Corbin, you know. I mean, I've
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: been making fun of him on the show, like I did.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: I started doing this show years ago, which sucks that
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: I still have no subscribers. Back then, it was Corbin
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: on Arizona, and man, I was giving him a lot
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: of shit because his numbers were horrible. He's at least
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: been better than that the last couple of years. His
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: numbers against Baltimore here not good. In one hundred and
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: twenty two at bats three to zero three batting average
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: nine nine ohps, thirty three to fourteen strike out walk ratio.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Pete Alonso does a ton of the
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: damage to him. The Alonzo has seen a lot of
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: them from the days in the National League at Corbin
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: I think was on Washington as well, and Alonzo was
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: on the Mets. I think that was a lot of
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: those at bats probably came in those divisional matchups there.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: But I don't trust Corbin here, man. I know he's
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: been better on the road. He's got bad matchup numbers. Here,
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: Chris Bassett is pitching for Baltimore. Baltimore used Trey Gibson
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: as their starter ustick because it was Bassett's turn in
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: the rotation, and I thought that meant that Dean Kreamer
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: might be coming back, but no, they went with Gibson
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: as the starter estay, and he did okay, Bassett got
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: pushed back to this start. You gotta think, like, why
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: did they do that though? And I'm thinking like conspiracy
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: theory here? Was it because they wanted Bassett to pitch
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: in this Toronto series because of course if he pitched yesterday,
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: he wouldn't pitch in this series. This is gonna be
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: the first time that he's pitching against his former team
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: because Toronto had Chris Bassett the last couple of seasons.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: This is his first season with Baltimore here, and this
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: is his first time FASIC Toronto FASIC, his former team.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: So do you think Baltimore did that intentionally, like, Hey,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: we're gonna have you face your former team here. I
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, maybe try to get a spark out
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: of Bassett here. I have no idea. Uh, Bassett has
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: not pitched well though five point five to one ERA,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: one point six to seven Whip I warned about him
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: last year that his like underlying numbers really did not
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: look good to me, and he started to fall apart.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: He's been good at home, though seems to always be
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: the case. Three point four to six Homye ra I
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: guess you can make the argument he's been pitching a
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: little bit better this month. He's got a seventeen to
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: five strike out walk ratio. More than one hit per
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: inning isn't good, though. Baltimore's won a ton of his starts,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: though they've won seven of his last eight outings. That's
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: kind of crazy. A lot of it is that he's
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: getting a lot of run support behind him, but his
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: command numbers have been okay this month. Over the course
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: of the season, though his strike out rate is low,
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: his walk his walk rate is high, and he's allowed
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: way above one hit per inning. So he's been pretty
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: bad across the board season wide. But yeah, again, his
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: numbers look a little bit better in the starts of
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: this month. Not entirely though. Now is he going to
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: be motivated though, that's the thing. He might have a
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: little bit of extra motivation here going up against his
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: former team, right, because when a team lets you go,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: you tend to have that motivation the first time you
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: face them. You want to prove that they were wrong
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: for getting rid of you, you know, like that type
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: of thing. So Bassett might come out and pitch well here.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: His numbers are not very good against Toronto though, against
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: their hitters sixty six at bats two seventy three average,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: seven to fifty three ohps, thirteen to one strike out
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. That's good. That's a good ratio. Overall, these numbers,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're really more on the mediocre side. I
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: would say Corbyn's numbers are worse in the matchup here,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: but then again, you got a factor in everything here.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Baltimore could be in a letdown spot. So I don't
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: really like that. I don't really want to play Baltimore here.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I think an over makes more sense than anything else
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: in this game. We don't see the percentages on this
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: The totals eight and a half. It looks like it
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: is moving towards the over. It's headed towards nine here.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: I think that might be the way to look at
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: this game. Both pitchers might give up some runs here.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: The bullpens are not exactly great, so I think an
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: over kind of makes sense in this game. Probably would
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: lean to Baltimore still as well, even though I know
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: they're at a potential letdown, they might still show up.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: Bassett might pitch well against his former team. I think
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: he has well. I showed you he has the better
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers over Corbin here. Baltimore. You know their bullpen
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: is bad though minus won twenty six is the price
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: here Toronto's a public side. Seventy three percent of ticket,
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the cash on them. Baltimore first five
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: innings might make more sense, and then just focus on
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: a possibly motivated Bassett against Corbin, who's not that good
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: matchup wise here. But Corbyn is good on the road too,
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: so both these pitchers are actually good in the home
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: road splits in this game. Again, Yeah, there are just
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: too many factors going in opposite directions here, So I
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: don't want anything to do with the game, really, but
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: I think if I was if I had to play
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: something on that game, probably I would go with the over.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Speaking of over, I was correct about Cubs Pittsburgh going
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: over yesterday, as the Cubs finally won a game, and
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: they won ten to four, ending Pittsburgh's three game win streak,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: and more importantly, Chicago ended a ten losing streak. So
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: you know what I talk about. When a team is
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: on a really long losing streak like that and they win,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: usually that's good for their momentum because it's like you
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: get that monkey off your back finally. It's like a
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: mental thing. Okay, now we can play looser a lot
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: of times. That gives a team momentum. So I think
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: the momentum angle definitely supports the Cubs in this game.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: Problem is they got to face Paul Skiings here. Can
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: they beat Paul Skiings? You know, I think it's possible.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: I never really want to fade Skians, just like I
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: said yesterday. Dude, I know I leaned to the Padres yesterday,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: but I was like, I really just don't want to
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: fade Sanchez though, And what happened. Yes Sanchez went like
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: six something innings and again allowed no runs. It's just
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: crazy what that guy's doing. Men like I just did
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: not want to step in front of that. Cubs, by
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: the way, they use four relief pitchers yesterday. They do
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen over Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh also used four,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: so the Cubs have a bullpen advantage here. They're eighth,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: bullpen Pittsburgh nineteenth. Cubs after yesterday moved back up a bit.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: In the offensive rankings, there's seventh. Pittsburgh is eighth, so
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: both these teams can hit. Colin Ray is pitching for
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. On the surface, obviously this is a starting
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: pitching advantage to Pittsburgh here. But when you kind of
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: dig into it, you know, maybe there are some arguments
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: to make a play on the Cubs here. I know,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: Colin Ray he's not that good four point eight three RA,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: one point three to seven whip. He's been really bad
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: on the road. So if you want the Cubs here,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: that is something that is concerning six point seventy five
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray. Combined with the fact that Pittsburgh is one
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: of the highest scoring home teams in baseball, you gotta
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: worry about that.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Ray.
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: He pitched pretty well in his last out. He went
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: seven innings, allowing three runs on four hits against Houston.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Did walk three guys though, which is a little bit concerning.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: But this month twenty to eight strike got walk ratio
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: is actually fairly good. Thirty one hits in twenty six
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: two there's innings isn't good though Cubs have lost his
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: last three starts overall in the season. Really like kind
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: of just mediocre across the board. Numbers here, strike out
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: rates not really high, walk rate is you know, right
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: in the middle of just kind of what you would
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: expect more than one hit per inning, not very good.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: Numbers against Pittsburgh are also not good. So I think
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: that kind of takes a play on the Cubs off
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: the table. Here. He's got eighty one at bats against them,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: three twenty one average, allowed nine to fifty ops, eighteen
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: to eight strike out walk ratio. That's no good. So
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: I can't recommend to play on the Cubs, even though
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: the situation kind of calls for it. And as I'm
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: about to show you, the Cubs don't actually have terrible
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: numbers against Paul Skins schemes. He's pitching well, but you know,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, his last couple of outings, he's been not unhittable.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: He's got a three ERA point eight two whip is
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: really good. He's been good at home two point six
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: to two home raim, but he's allowed nine runs over
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: his last ten innings of work against Philly and Toronto.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, I think that's a bit of an outlier, though,
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, Skeens is rarely ever even that bad. His
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: strike out rate was low in the Toronto game, though
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know what happened in that game. He did
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: not have his stuff obviously in that game. He still
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: has a twenty six to two strikeout walk ratio this month,
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: though overall he's got more than one strike up per
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: ending on the season. Obviously he's got still he's not
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: even in the double digit walk category yet and way
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: below one hit per inning. But we get it. Skeens
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: is an elite level pitcher, and I think obviously he's
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: gonna bounce back into form at some point here. It
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: could be now. But the Cubs are a pretty good
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: hitting team, and they actually have decent numbers against Skeens,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: at least given that it is Skiens. He's got ninety
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: one at bats against them, so the Cubs are familiar
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: with them. Uh, thirty two strike ups, thirteen walks. That's
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: a lot of walks, dude. Two fifty three average allout
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: is you know, right in the middle range there. But
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: a seven to sixty four ops. That means the Cubs
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: bats actually have a slight advantage against Paul Skins. Here.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: They got a few guys that actually hit him pretty well.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: Bush what else it looks like a Suzuki and well,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: Suzuki just has a home run off him. Horner actually
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: is the one that hits him the best. A few
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: of these guys do a decent amount of damage against Skiings,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: So it's an interesting game. The money's coming in on
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: the Cubs pretty hilarious. Pittsburgh's about a minus one seventy
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: favorite here tickets on Pittsburgh seventy of the cash on
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. They think the public does not trust the
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Cubs after a ten game losing streak. Obviously they're not
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: going to trust the Cubs against Paul Skiings. There might
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: be some value there in grabbing the Cubs, maybe on
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: like a run line, you know, split run line, money line. Maybe,
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: But I can't trust Ray either. I might lean over
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: in this game. I know it's a seven and a half.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: It's a low total because Skeens is pitching. But I
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: just showed you Skiens. You know, the Cubs are one
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: of the teams that hit Schens better than most other teams,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: and they have more experience against them of the most
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: teams do Ray has bad matchup numbers two, So I
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: think an over makes some sense in this game. The
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: rare Paul Skeens game over. I'm not gonna actually do it,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: but if I had to make a play in this game,
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: that might be what I would actually do. But you
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: know me, I never want to go over a low
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: total like that because, as I always say, it's low
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: for reason. It's seven and a half. But do with
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: that info what you want. The last game on ESPN
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: Unlimited is Houston and Texas. Houston got another win yesterday.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: They've won two out of these three games. They won
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: by one. Yesterday, Texas had ended a losing streak and
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: went right back into the lost category. I don't know, man,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Texas is still the better team here, man, and they
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: clearly have the better pitching, But Houston basically has their
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: best pitcher going here. That's how bad they're pitching is though.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: No shade on Arraghetty, but as I'll point out, when
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: we look at his matchup numbers, there's one big problem
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: with his numbers with Texas going with Nathan Yavaldi, who
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: we know is solid. Texas has these three relief pitchers
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: yesterday Houston used two. Texas has the better bullpen, though
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Houston is ranked twenty seventh. Now, hey, there are three
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: teams that have a worse bullpen whipth than they do,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: but Houston still has the worst bullpen e RA. You
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: could still easily make the argument they're the worst bullpen.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: Texas is way better. There's seventh. There's yet no debate. Really,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: Texas is the better bullpen. Houston is the better offense.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: They're fifth, Texas is twenty third. I like pitching over hitting,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: though Houston is going with Spencer Araghetty, who does have
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: their best numbers in their starting rotation one point and
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: he has the best hair one point three to two
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: ERA one point two whip pretty good. The whip maybe
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit high, but I'm gonna show you why
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: that is. Arag Getty's been a little bit worse on
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: the road. One point seven four ERA is still really good,
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: and we know Texas is a pitcher friendly ballpark. Araghetty's
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: only allowed two runs in his fourth starts this month.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Houston's won six of his seven starts. He's got a
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: win in all six of them. He's got a decent
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, but it's a little bit below one per inning.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Hit rate is way below one per inning, so he's
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: been unhittable pretty much. But his walk number is insane.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: He's walking more than one guy every two winnings. You
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: can't do that, dude, Like, even in this streak where
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: he's been really good, well, look at the whole season here.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or more walks in every outing except one,
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: four or more in every outing except two. You can't
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: do it. You just can't do it. I know he's
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: got good stuff. I know he's been really hard to hit.
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: He pitched well against Texas at home last time he
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: faced Texas two starts ago. But you can't walk this
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: many guys, dude. Nineteen to sixteen strike out walk ratio
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: this month. That is not the type of pitcher I
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: want to play on.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Like.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: That means there's gonna be regression here. And obviously his
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: numbers are just unsustainable too. Like, even though I think
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: he's pretty good, but this walk number is just ridiculous.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: I don't think you could back him with a walk
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: number like that. Yes, he pitched well against Texas two
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: starts ago, he one hit, shutout them in seven to
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: third innings, four walks in the game, and five strikeouts.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Texas does not do well against him. A lot of
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: it was that starts. Thirty two at bats own ninety
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: four average, one extra base hit, a home run from Jansen,
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: four forty four ohps, seven strike out, seven walks, so again,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: the walks are a concern there. Overall. Yes, he does
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: have good numbers though, so he may very well go
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: out and pitch well again, even though Texas has just
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: seen him. Texas isn't a great offense, so maybe they
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: won't be able to fully take advantage of Arraghetty's issues.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Nathan Yvald the pitching for Texas. He's been good three
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: point six five ERA, one point one four whip, a
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home three point seven to nine
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: e RA, but pretty close to what his roady ray is.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: He's starting to pitch really well again. Nothing like pitching
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: against the Yankees to get you back into form. Man,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: he's a Yankee killer. He pitched really well against them twice.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Then he pitched against Houston in that Houston series I
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: just mentioned, so he did just face Houston. He's seven
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: inning shut out them as well. That was in a
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: different game than the Arraghetty game. He five hit them
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: at eight strikeouts two walks, so his numbers were better
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: in his start because he didn't walk as many guys.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: And then he followed that up with a pretty decent
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: outing against Anaheim as well, and the Texas lost that
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: game was not his fault. He's got almost one strike
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: up per inning below one hit a lout per inning,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is way lower than Arrogetti's. He
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: allows too many home runs though eleven home runs, but
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: Texas is at least a less home run conduce a
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: ballpark because numbers against Houston or mediocre. Though in one
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: hundred and thirty one at bats, two fifty two average
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: seven to fifty three oh ps is just slightly high
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: forty one to sixteen strike up walk ratio. I'm gonna
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: pass on the game, but I probably think the best
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: approach in this game is the under. The money looks
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: like it's coming in that way. Seventy seven percent of
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty six percent of the cash on the under.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: Seven and a half is the total. It looks like
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: it's headed towards seven. So if you're going to do that,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: I would try to get seven and a half under
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: juice at like minus one twenty or whatever. That would
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: be my lean in that game. But a first five
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: inning under might make more sense because Houston's bullpen is terrible,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: so maybe an under first five in three and a half.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: You're getting a little bit dicey with that though, and
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: the money is indicating towards Texas, which I don't really
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: disagree with that seventy three percent of tickets fifty three
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Houston. Like I said, arrag
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Getty's walk numbers really really are concerning. But Evaldi has
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: the lesser matchup numbers here, So it's like, which one
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: of those do you weigh greater? You know what I mean.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: Excuse me. Texas is about minus one forty six here.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: They might be a little bit extra motivated because they
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: really do not want to lose a series three to
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: one to Houston. Texas is overall the better team here, man.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: I know Houston has the better offense. I know Houston
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: has probably their best starter going here, but Texas is
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: still a better team in my opinion overall. We'll see
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: what happens in that game. Man wnba. We have two
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: games here. I will not give out a plan in
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: either of these games. They're both on Amazon Prime. Vegas
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: is at Dallas. Dallas is returning home from a road trip.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: So you know right away that means I would be
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: looking to fade them if I was gonna do anything
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: with this game. Most likely they're also going to letdown
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Spot possibly because they beat New York in their last
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: game on the road trip. They're coming back to Dallas here.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: Now that was a big upset win. There were whatever,
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: probably several point underdogs in that game against New York.
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: I looked at the box score there and it was
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: a little bit misleading as well, Like it did not
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: indicate a fifteen point Dallas win. Like it indicated a
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: close game if you look at the box score. So
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: I would be looking to fade Dallas here. My problem
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: with it is Dallas might still show up for a
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: game against Vegas because they're the returning champs, dude, you
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, Like, they're not a team you're
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: going to overlook. So Dallas, they don't have a bigger
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: game up next Seattle. They suck, So that's kind of
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: my one issue with it. I like Vegas in this game,
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: but that's one issue I have with that. Vegas is
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: coming off a bad loss, which was a win that
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: I gave on on the show. I'm pretty sure Vegas
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: was returning home from the road. Yeah, and I gave
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: out La as a player in that game. Vegas had
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: crushed La on the road to start that road trip
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: another win. So I've been good in these Vegas games.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: Three of my WNBA wins have come in Vegas games.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: One of them was the first game of the season
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: where we faded them in the Rings Ceremony revenge game
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: for Phoenix. We played on Vegas after that horrible loss,
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: and they got us the win against La. It was
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit misleading. And then in the return home spot,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: I gave you guys, La and that was a win
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: as well. So we're three and zero giving up plays
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: on the Vegas games here. I think Vegas should bounce back.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I know they lost a win streak with that loss
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: to LA, but it was a weird spot. It was
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: sandwiched in between two road trips. They had a bad
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: game at home, and you know what I talk about
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: when a team loses as a big favorite, and we can.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: You can explain why they lost. It was because they
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: were in a return home spot, flying across country, a
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: bad spot, and LA was in a revenge spot as well.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: Explain why they lost. And they lost as a big favorite,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: should set up as a bounce back for them. So
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards Vegas in this game. They're minus
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: four basically at most place this year, four and a
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: half at some places. That's what I would do. I
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: would lay the points if I was gonna play that game.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: And then we have Indiana and Golden State. These are
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: both decent games, by the way, well they're I mean,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: nothing's decent in the WNBA, but as far as the
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: WNBA goes, these are both decent games. They're competitively priced.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: Golden State's coming off a blowout win over Connecticut. That's
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: whatever we know. I don't want to talk about Connecticut
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: right now, but they're bad. Golden State should get up
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: for a game against Indiana. I mean, you're playing against
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Caitlin Clark, Sophie Conningham. You know, Indiana's starting to play well.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: So I think Golden State is going to still be
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: up for this game. It'll be a big game. For them.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: These two teams did just play each other though, so
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: Golden State actually did just lose at Indiana on May
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: twenty second, So could there be like a zigzag here
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: revenge motivator here? Possibly? But I kind of think both
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: teams are gonna show up though. That's why I kind
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: of question that, because both teams are playing well. So
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: I think both teams are gonna consider this to be
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: a big game if you dig into what happened in
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: that game. Indiana won against Golden State at home by eight.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: Indiana covered they were minus five and a half favorite
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: when the game went off. Indiana lost the turnover battles
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: that was. It's interesting they won the game by eight
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: despite losing the turnover battle. That's not a great side
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: for Golden State. Indiana won the rebound battle there. Indiana
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: did hit more three pointers. Golden State shot really poorly
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: though they shot thirty seven percent. They had more field
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: goal attempts in the game, but hit so so many
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: fewer of them that they lost the game anyway. And
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: Indiana did hit a decent amount of threes as well,
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: So I think there could be some regression here with
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Indiana possibly shooting less from three point range in this
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: game here, and Golden State might shoot better from the
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: field in this game, so those are some regression points there.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think there are more indicators to lean
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: towards Golden State here than towards Indiana. I'm gonna lean
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Golden State, but you know, I don't really love it.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: And by the way, that was Indiana's last game they
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: played was against Golden State, so they have more time off,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: so I don't think that's good. They've been off since Friday,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: so they've been off for almost a week, and they
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: were on a three game win streak. Now they're starting
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: a road trip. Usually you will be focused to start
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: the road trip. The only other game on the road
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: trip is Portland, who Indiana already beat them easily, so
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna focus on that game. So
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: I think Indiana will still show up for this. It
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: does seem like a focus spot for them, but they
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: just beat Golden State, and having an extra time off
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: is not good when you're on a three game win
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: streak because they can disrupt your momentum. So I like
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: Golden State in that one. They flipped to a favorite here,
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: they're a one and a half point favorite at most,
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: So you could do that, or you could do like
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: money line or something like that. That would be what
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: I would say about that game. And then we have
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: NBA Oka See San Antonio, NBC and Peacock game six
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: in San Antonio, Oka See got us to win with
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: the team total in the last game and they did
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: also cover. Now does that mean there's gonna be another
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: zigzag here? Does that mean there's gonna be a regression
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: coming into this game? I think it is possible. There
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: were some indicators that that might be the case here.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: If we look at what happened in the last game,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: okay See scored a lot. They have not scored this
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: many points in the games at San Antonio. They score
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: more at home, so that's an indicator there might be
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: some regression here for okac If we look at what
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: happened in the game, San Antonio shot poorly, they only
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: shot forty percent. They actually had nine more field goal attempts.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: Okay Se was the better shooting team in the game.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: But the big regression point here to me looks like
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: it is the three point percentage here Oka See forty
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: four from three point range, even though they only hit
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: two more threes that san Antonio CA. San Antonio took
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: way more, probably because they were losing, but there should
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: be some regression for OKAC from the three point range here, Like,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna shoot that well against so
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: that looks like it could be a regression here, So
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: that would worry me about okay See. So that kind
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: of does have me a leaning towards san Antonio here.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: The fact that Oka See probably is not gonna be
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: doing as well from the from three point range, the
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: fact that San Antonio did actually have more field goal
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: attempts in the game. Okay See won the rebound battle though,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: so that's interesting because San Antonio is a good rebounding team.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: Interesting that OKAYC was able to win the rebounding battle there,
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: and they did lead almost the entire games, so they
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: there were still the better team in the game. Uh
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: So those are some hesitations I have here. The other
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: hesitation I have with san Antonio is I don't like
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: the line san Antonio is three and a half here four,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: and you remember they were like a two to two
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite in the other home games,
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: so you're not getting any value on this line here.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: So even though I do slightly lean towards san Antonio
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: laying this price, you know you're not getting the best
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: number here, Like the oddsmakers know about the zigzag phenomenon
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: and whatever. They know san Antonio's facing elimination here and
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: they're gonna give a huge effort, so they've shifted the
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: line in that direction. I mean, you could maybe go
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: like money line on san Antonium now so they don't
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: have to win by a margin year because I think
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: they will win and I think the refs might help
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: them out and want this series to go seven, which
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: I don't really because I want the Knicks to lose.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: The Knicks will be a road underdog against either of
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: these teams, though they'll be a little bit of a
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: bigger underdog against Oklahoma City, though the look ahead lines
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: are out, by the way for those hypothetical matchups. Already,
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: OKC would be a six and a half point favoriting
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: Game one against the Knicks, and San Antonio would be
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: a four and a half point favorite at home against
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: the Knicks in Game one, for what that's worth. But
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: san Antonio is a four point favorite here, which also
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: that I mean, just that alone, that makes this number
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: seem too high, right, Like if san Antonio is a
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: four and a half point favorite hypothetical against the Knicks
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: in Game one, but they're a four point favorite here
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: against Okac, you're telling me that Okac is only a
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: half point less than the Knicks. I mean, yeah, that
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: just makes this number seem ridiculous, Like this number is
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: just too high, dude. But I think given the situation,
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: I do think san Antonio will win. If you want
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: to play the money line or go with some sort
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: of moneyline parlaying, you could do that. Seventy one percent
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: of tickets only sixty nine percent of the cash on
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: san Antonio though, so the money is kind of disagreeing
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: with that, and there are some arguments to be made
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: for oka See. I guess that the experience might win
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: out in a game of this magnitude stuff like that.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: You know, san Antonio is the less deep rotation, even
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: though I know okay See has injuries to deal with
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: san Antonio. Looks like Fox is not playing at one
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: hundred percent either, and Harper might not be, but they're
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: playing them anyway. But san Antonio might be tired at
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: the end of the series. You know what I mean,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: Because they they just don't have as many people they
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: roll out. They're like, okay See normally rolls out like
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: ten guys out until the court. San Antonio really heavily
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: focuses on giving their starters maxim minuts, so that might
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: be a problem towards the end of the series as well.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: So all stuff to keep in mind. The under I
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: think is worth considering in this game because a game
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: that's a Game six or Game seven, when it's you know,
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: the series is on the line, you're usually gonna get
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: intense defense. But of course my problem with that is
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: these teams might be a little bit tired towards the
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: end of the series, but usually you do see more intense, deepense.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: The total is a little bit higher because the last
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: game went way over the total. I was a very
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: high scoring game, and as I told you, I think
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: san Antonio is correlated to the under in the series.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: I think they want to play more lower scoring games
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: and focus on their defense, even though I know Oka
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: See is also a very good defense. But if you
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: like san Antonio, the under I think is kind of
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: correlated to that. And the under makes sense because again
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: it could be a zigzag for the total where the
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: last game was way high scoring. Although you know, I
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: just showed you the stats, like san Antonio actually didn't
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: shoot that well. So when I want to play an under,
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: if I'm gonna do it, I'm kind of looking for
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: it to be like a huge outlier where both teams
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: shot extraordinarily well, you know what I mean, there should
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: be regression on both sides. You could see the regression
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: argument for ok See, but maybe not for San Antonio
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: because they didn't shoot well. Totals at two nineteen and
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: a half, which is actually high. I think that's about
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: as high as it was in like Game one or whatever.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: So I think the total is a little bit high.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: Eighty five percent that tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. I'd lean under here, but possibly
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: the better way to play this if you think san
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: Antonio is gonna win, if you like the under, you
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: could go okay See under their team total, which is
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: one oh eight and a half I think, But that
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: worries to me because you know, for some of the
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: reasons I liked the over for Oklahoma City in the
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: previous game was that Oklahoma City has gone over that
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: total in most games. But then again, at San Antonio.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: They've only been able to do it once in this series,
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: and then of course they had their lowest scoring game
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: the last time they're in San Antonio. So yeah, I
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: mean that might actually be the best way to play
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: this is to go under Okayc's team totalim I think,
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: you know, you might see regression from McCain. I know,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: I keep talking about him because that's the thing. Oklahoma
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: City still is without AJ Williams. He's definitely out and
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: Jalen Williams or sorry, AJ Mitchell, excuse me. AJ Mitchell
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: is out and Jalen Williams is game time decision. He
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: hasn't played since like Game two or something, so he
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: has a hamstring issue. I don't know if he's gonna
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: play or not. Like he's a big piece for Okay. See,
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: they want Williams to come back for sure, and for
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: their sake, hopefully he does at some point, but I
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: don't know if he's gonna come back here. They can
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: still win without him. Like I said, McCain actually started
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: and had a really big game in the last game,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: but he took a ton of shots, like he didn't
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: even actually shoot that well, he just got over his
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: point total because his volume was insane, but that was
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: part of that handicap on that prop. You could look
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: to go McCain under and regress here, but the problem
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: with that is if Williams is still out here and
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: Mitchell is debthly out, McCain is probably gonna get that
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: much volume again. So that's kind of the issue, Like
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: he didn't even really shoot that well, and if he
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: has the volume going under, his prop is a little
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: bit iffy. I would say, you know, I don't do
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: much with props, but you could go like Wemby over
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: his team total. I know, I don't really love going
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: with stars over their team total, though I would not
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: really want to fade them either. But Wemby only had
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: twenty points in the last game, so you probably have
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: to think that he's probably gonna do more scoring in
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: this one. But we'll see. He might be tired by
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: the end of the series though too. They're just not
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: used to it, man, okay A is used to going
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: into these deep series. San Antonio is not. So that's
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: what I gotta say about that. Although I know san
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Antonio went fairly deep into that Minnesota series, but Okac
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: has been here at this level and done this before.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: But those are my thoughts on the game. I think
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: oka see under their team total or San Antonio money line,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: or maybe throwing them into a moneyline Parley era kind
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: of the better ways to approach that game. That's gonna
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: do it. My only play of the day is the
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: over in baseball in Anaheim and Detroit. Hopefully we can
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: get that one done. We'll know pretty early on. That's
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. Thanks for hanging out, everybody. Learn a
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: toad on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram, like a
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel here, tell everybody about it. Listen
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker covered in you because my
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: ukulele cover channel on YouTube or yeah on YouTube. You
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: can check that out Patreon, dot com, Slash, learn a
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: toad for some bonus yuke stuff and Loser casts every
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: Tuesday night and the Giants g Spot podcast That's Gonna
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: do It Happy Thursday. A little bit of a shorter show,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: still an hour though for a very small board firm.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: Now we talked about nine games total and it took
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: an hour. That's great. Peace, But don't you go quiet,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: don't you fade from the floor.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something. To somebody for show. Put
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on nothing, no hold on, hold on.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Let me for.
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: That long bites, but it don't.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Get the crown.
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, don't stay with me now