Latest / The Bullion Advantage | Wealth Protection, Politics and Finance Insights From The #1 UK Gold Dealer / Gold Supply Under Threat? How The UK Budget Could Spike Demand
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Is it too late to buy gold?
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: The decisions announced in the autumn budget, which is only weeks away, will directly impact how much tax you pay and how much of your hard-earned wealth you actually get to keep.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: This week's news adds another layer of uncertainty.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that Chancellor John Healy faces around£35 billion in spending pressures by 2030 to 2031, and that means he's got some very difficult decisions ahead over taxation, welfare, and public services.
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: So if you've got savings in the bank, if you've got a pension or you've got a property, what could these decisions mean for you?
- 0:38SPEAKER_00: But there is something crucial that you also might be missing.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: What's happening with gold supply?
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: Could it become harder to get hold of physical gold?
- 0:46SPEAKER_00: If you're considering buying gold, timing is not the only thing to think about.
- 0:50SPEAKER_00: You need to understand what's driving demand, what's happening on the supply side and what risks you're taking by buying or waiting.
- 0:57SPEAKER_00: So by the end of this episode, you should have a clear understanding of the factors affecting gold supply and demand, the potential implications of the budget on you and your wealth, plus the key things to consider before you buy physical gold.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: Before we begin though, please do remember to like and subscribe if you're on YouTube.
- 1:15SPEAKER_00: And if you're listening on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, please do follow the show so you never miss an update.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: And just before we start, we're running another listener competition.
- 1:24SPEAKER_00: This is for two ounces of silver completely free.
- 1:28SPEAKER_00: All you need to do is go over to Spotify, go to Apple Podcasts or whatever platform you listen to the podcast on.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: Rate the show five stars, then send us a screenshot of the five star rating to our social media channels via direct message, or you can send it via email to podcast at directbullion.com.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: Don't worry, I'm gonna put everything in the description below.
- 1:49SPEAKER_00: Get your rating in before the 30th of October, and you'll be entered into the prize drawer.
- 1:54SPEAKER_00: Right, let's get into it, shall we?
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: Harry's here to break this all down.
- 1:57SPEAKER_00: Harry, thanks so much for joining me again.
- 1:59SPEAKER_00: I appreciate it.
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: Hi Jake, always good to be back.
- 2:02SPEAKER_00: Lots of discussion.
- 2:03SPEAKER_00: Thanks very much so.
- 2:04SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much for joining me.
- 2:05SPEAKER_00: Let's start with the big news.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: The IFS saying that's the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- 2:12SPEAKER_00: They say the government faces around£35 billion in new spending pressures, and that's by the end of this decade, which relatively isn't too far away.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: But what does that actually mean?
- 2:23SPEAKER_01: Look, we're gonna talk a lot in this episode about rumours of money and estimates of money, and there's no guarantees, and I I actually think this uncertainty's underlying all of it, but this is the first of the non-guarantees.
- 2:37SPEAKER_01: But the IFS about uh ultimately saying by 2031 there's a gonna be another 35 billion needed.
- 2:44SPEAKER_01: Well, that's also on top of KPMG looking at the uh fiscal headroom for the next budget, saying it's halved, so they've got another 35 billion to find, plus the current accounts saying, Well, you've also got half of what you're used to having.
- 2:58SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so yeah, little bit of a uh a concern there.
- 3:02SPEAKER_01: It kind of just adds to everything we've been talking about, though, in terms of no one's quite sure what is going to come out of this budget, and that's a real worry.
- 3:10SPEAKER_00: Well, that's that's what people are saying, right?
- 3:11SPEAKER_00: That they're gonna have to make quote unquote difficult choices in this budget.
- 3:16SPEAKER_00: What do they mean when they're talking about difficult choices?
- 3:19SPEAKER_00: That sounds pretty scary.
- 3:21SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and and I don't want to come across too politically right wing here.
- 3:24SPEAKER_01: I mean, I'm very much a capitalist, very much if you go out and earn an honest day's living, you deserve to be rewarded for that.
- 3:30SPEAKER_01: Yeah, however, more than ever, it seems so apparent that Labour are going down the route of let's take£100 from one person and give ten people£10 who do absolutely nothing because that's gonna secure us the next election, that's gonna get us the vote in the next election.
- 3:45SPEAKER_01: It really does seem that way.
- 3:46SPEAKER_01: 100%, Jay.
- 3:47SPEAKER_01: It is absolutely disgusting the way they are treating the just general working man at the moment.
- 3:52SPEAKER_00: Couldn't agree more.
- 3:53SPEAKER_01: If you get up, if you work, if you pay your taxes, guess what?
- 3:57SPEAKER_01: You are public enemy number one, bottom line.
- 4:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah, could not agree more with that.
- 4:01SPEAKER_00: And just bringing it back to that 35 billion figure, is that a bit more complicated?
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: Like, is it just as simple as there's 35 billion that they need to find and they've got to find it somehow, some way?
- 4:14SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is why I caveated what I said at the beginning.
- 4:16SPEAKER_01: We don't want to get bogged down in just big bubble headlines and and real capture.
- 4:22SPEAKER_01: Of course, it's far more complicated than that.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: But the bottom line is 35 billion is going to have to come from somewhere, costs are going up, not down, inflation is going up, not down, cost of everyday goods are going up, not down.
- 4:33SPEAKER_01: And this is a constant reminder to people as things go up, as the government ignore it, as they give out more spending.
- 4:40SPEAKER_01: By the way, a third of our welfare, a third of our bill is on welfare, 400 is on welfare.
- 4:47SPEAKER_01: Wow, so for doing nothing, um, so yeah, bottom line, yeah, let's watch out for this 35 billion and and see how much that grows.
- 4:55SPEAKER_01: This is a starting point.
- 4:56SPEAKER_01: Yeah, don't think this is a final.
- 5:00SPEAKER_00: Um if you are sitting at home though and you're a bit worried about whether your taxes could go up, what would you say that you should in particular be paying attention to right now in this moment?
- 5:10SPEAKER_01: Uh I I'm really big on trying to be open-minded and trying not to push people towards direction.
- 5:17SPEAKER_01: I cannot understand for the life of me now, though, why you'd want to be in bank accounts, why you'd want to be in anything to do with the system, why you'd want to be in ICES or anything else that the government can manipulate, can tax, can watch.
- 5:31SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think that's one of the key ones is them just watching it and knowing how much is there is is a real scare for people.
- 5:38SPEAKER_01: So, more than ever, start looking out, start being diverse, start getting money out of the system.
- 5:43SPEAKER_01: That is it.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: Yeah, for sure.
- 5:45SPEAKER_00: And if you're earning sort of an average salary, say between 30 and 50 grand per year, how could you how could you really end up paying more tax?
- 5:55SPEAKER_00: You know, you're already getting taxed quite heavily for what you earn at that level.
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah, how could you possibly be paying more?
- 6:02SPEAKER_01: I mean the cliche one's the 125,000 salary in the UK, isn't it?
- 6:05SPEAKER_01: I mean, so you not only do you lose your uh tax allowance, not only do you lose your child uh maintenance allowance, you're actually better off earning 99,000 in this country than you are 125,000.
- 6:16SPEAKER_01: You are brilliant.
- 6:17SPEAKER_01: That that's especially if you've got children, like you say.
- 6:20SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
- 6:20SPEAKER_01: Idiocy, idiocy.
- 6:22SPEAKER_01: And and we're kind of going to see that at the 30 to 50 mark as well.
- 6:25SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 6:26SPEAKER_01: When they first did these threshold tax freezes, there weren't many people, or there was a very small percentage of people who were at that higher rate taxpayer.
- 6:34SPEAKER_01: And yeah.
- 6:35SPEAKER_01: Well, guess what?
- 6:36SPEAKER_01: More and more and more people are having to hit that mark.
- 6:39SPEAKER_01: And let's be honest, 50,000, especially in the south east uh and down here.
- 6:44SPEAKER_01: It doesn't get you too far nowadays.
- 6:45SPEAKER_01: I I don't I know a fair few people who are earning 50,000 a year and are still living at home with their parents.
- 6:50SPEAKER_01: Uh and that's the reality of the cost of living on people.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: Well, because how much is it if you want to live if you do want to live by yourself and not live in a four-bedroom house with five other people?
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: You know, it's you're pushing three grand for rent now.
- 7:03SPEAKER_01: I I hate the fact this country has now got to a point where you seem to be better off not working, no ambition, not pushing yourself, than the man or woman who gets up at five every morning to slug their arse off in a 50-hour week, eat their lunch in their car, uh and and just try to keep a roof over their head.
- 7:22SPEAKER_01: That is a disgrace, Jake.
- 7:24SPEAKER_00: Could not agree more again.
- 7:25SPEAKER_00: And now I do want to talk about property a little bit, just because obviously your knowledge is in that area as well.
- 7:32SPEAKER_00: But just before that, there's also been speculation about capital gains tax and you know what kind of changes to a capital gains tax could it mean for someone who's built up their wealth in assets that are maybe outside of property.
- 7:45SPEAKER_01: Again, it is tax for hard work that you've always done.
- 7:48SPEAKER_01: We are penalising the person who went out and risked it.
- 7:51SPEAKER_01: We we said on um the podcast a few weeks ago about the ICEs, yeah, you could have you had to risk uh 8,000 of it in a cash ICE now.
- 7:59SPEAKER_01: Well, what that means is if you win, you're paying the tax, and if you lose, there's no reprieve.
- 8:04SPEAKER_01: And again, it's just constantly taxing someone who's going, do you know what?
- 8:09SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna risk it today.
- 8:10SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna try to put my best foot forward and I'm gonna try and make something happen.
- 8:13SPEAKER_01: The capital gains tax is the worrying one because they said they're not touching national insurance, they said they're not doing income, they said they're not doing VAT.
- 8:21SPEAKER_01: What's gonna happen?
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so where's it coming from?
- 8:23SPEAKER_01: This is the big question.
- 8:25SPEAKER_01: The lack of rumours is worrying right now.
- 8:28SPEAKER_01: The markets have normally reacted by this point.
- 8:30SPEAKER_01: Last year we saw it, gold started to rally between September and December, it went up 23%.
- 8:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the effects before the budget, the effects after the budget.
- 8:38SPEAKER_01: This year, the markets do not know which way to turn.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: We know it's gonna be a car crash, we know it's gonna be devastating, but we're waiting to see where that's actually coming from.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and then just moving into property, like I said, could property owners be affected by changes?
- 8:55SPEAKER_00: You know, there's obviously speculation about property-related taxes or allowances changing and stuff like that too.
- 9:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we've we've heard already rumours about them getting rid of stamp duty and changing it to a yearly council tax style, um, which again, just because you live in a million-pound house does not mean you are rich, you may be asset rich, but I think some of the rumoured taxes are sort of two to five grand a year in addition.
- 9:17SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 9:18SPEAKER_01: Addition.
- 9:19SPEAKER_01: I know again, a lot of families that live in those sort of houses that aren't cash rich, is it's not the case.
- 9:25SPEAKER_01: And we've always had this battle Tories want everyone to own property, Labour follow more of a European style where they want everyone to rent their properties, and now we're kind of at a point where Labour are trying to incentivize first-time buyers whilst again crippling the next lot of people, which are what we've what we've said over and over again, isn't it?
- 9:46SPEAKER_01: That Labour are targeting young left-wing students coming out of uni, and I hate to say it, Jake, people our age, really, mate.
- 9:54SPEAKER_01: Uh it's the sort of late 20s, early 30s that are a little bit more woke, is if if that's the right answer.
- 9:59SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I think then they can see maybe Green losing a bit of ground as well.
- 10:03SPEAKER_00: Yeah, definitely.
- 10:04SPEAKER_01: Definitely.
- 10:04SPEAKER_01: I think they're gonna scoop up some of those uh Green Party side of things as well.
- 10:08SPEAKER_00: So I think so.
- 10:09SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 10:10SPEAKER_00: So I just want to touch on something that you've obviously mentioned at the start of the start of the podcast.
- 10:15SPEAKER_00: How can people really tell the difference between a genuine risk and a just a frightening headline based on complete speculation?
- 10:23SPEAKER_01: No smoke about fire, I think, corny as it may be.
- 10:26SPEAKER_01: Read the headline and try and understand that the the figures being thrown about.
- 10:32SPEAKER_01: We say billions of pounds like it's nothing nowadays.
- 10:34SPEAKER_01: You always see a headline with a few billion or the country's increase.
- 10:38SPEAKER_00: Just borrowed another 20 billion.
- 10:40SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
- 10:40SPEAKER_01: And Pete, it kind of goes over people's heads when you break that down, look at the figures on a bit of paper and actually see what that goes towards.
- 10:46SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's it starts to become a worrying sight.
- 10:49SPEAKER_01: The fact is, people are feeling this pinch day in, day out.
- 10:52SPEAKER_01: So this isn't a case of are there going to be issues?
- 10:55SPEAKER_01: They are facing these issues currently.
- 10:57SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think what is happening though, almost like a rabbit in headlights, people are so scared on which way to turn that they're not making any decisions, yeah.
- 11:07SPEAKER_01: And that in itself is the worst decision, it is what's damaging them more than anything, and yeah, we we this is where uh I certainly pride my team on this as well, Jake, is taking the time to explain the process to people.
- 11:19SPEAKER_01: This is new markets that they're coming into, they are stepping away from what they're used to, but just because it's new doesn't mean it's a bad idea, and where you're currently standing for the last five years, you might have said you were trading water, you are actively going backwards.
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: You are going backwards if you are just in currents accounts, ICES, premium bonds, your money is going backwards, yeah.
- 11:44SPEAKER_00: Categorically, and people obviously taking people are putting supermarket shops on credit cards now.
- 11:50SPEAKER_00: That's hurting the interest on those, you know, you can get up to 40-50% in APR on those credit cards as well.
- 11:57SPEAKER_01: It's it's it's crazy, getting tough.
- 11:58SPEAKER_01: And they're lending more and more money to people that can't afford it, and you wonder why you end up in these situations?
- 12:02SPEAKER_01: I I mean I I did a food shop the other day, two bags of shopping.
- 12:05SPEAKER_01: I was holding two bags of shopping, 80 quid each eighty quid each for two bags of shopping.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: I know, but with um you know, keeping the conversation on you know protecting yourself from these potential threats coming out of the budget, is there is there really a right way of doing it?
- 12:20SPEAKER_00: You know, does protecting your wealth mean moving everything into one asset, or is it about you know diversifying and spreading the risk between different types of assets and make maybe being a bit more sensible about yeah, spreading the risk, spreading the safety.
- 12:34SPEAKER_01: I guess you what way you look at it, half empty, half full.
- 12:37SPEAKER_01: If a client called me and said they had a hundred thousand, I would never suggest put that hundred thousand fully into gold, silver, or copper or whatever it may be.
- 12:45SPEAKER_01: Diversity is important and and we uh appreciate that as well.
- 12:48SPEAKER_01: You do want to hedge your bets at the moment because it is so uncertain what's around the corner.
- 12:53SPEAKER_01: So for me, for example, I I always go heavier on gold because it's so stable.
- 12:58SPEAKER_01: So 70% of my metals portfolio is in gold.
- 13:00SPEAKER_01: I then do another 15-20% perhaps in silver.
- 13:05SPEAKER_01: I like it, it's got the critical metal side of things, it's got the precious metal side of it, it's speculative a little bit more, it's swings a bit more, so that's my I can take nice gains from that, and then maybe five or so percent I'll put into copper, which I'm well aware, copper is the the big one, a hundred to one outside a horse, like that's the one if it goes, it's gonna go, and that's why I like it.
- 13:24SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but stability is always what I like.
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: Let's talk a bit more about gold.
- 13:29SPEAKER_00: You know, if I'm thinking about buying physical gold before the budget, which isn't too far away, is there anything specifically that I should be considering?
- 13:37SPEAKER_01: Uh speak to someone, uh, is what I would say.
- 13:40SPEAKER_01: Don't try.
- 13:41SPEAKER_01: We I think a lot of people try to get on ChatGPT, ask ChatGPT questions, and try come to solutions themselves.
- 13:48SPEAKER_01: The bottom line is why do people work with us, Jake?
- 13:50SPEAKER_01: We've been going a decades, we we've been around the block for a little while.
- 13:53SPEAKER_01: We're now the 77th fastest growing company in the UK.
- 13:57SPEAKER_01: We must be doing something right to have that, right?
- 13:59SPEAKER_01: And where it comes from is our actual dedication to care.
- 14:03SPEAKER_01: We are normal people here.
- 14:05SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we are not in high rises living the luxury life, we are normal working people like the people we deal with, and because of that, we understand the fears of the normal people as well.
- 14:15SPEAKER_01: We understand what is worrying everyone.
- 14:18SPEAKER_01: The difference being though, we come up to date every single day with this budget news, every single day.
- 14:24SPEAKER_01: We know what's happening in the gold market.
- 14:26SPEAKER_01: So do your research, do your due diligence on us, but have the conversation, ask the questions, go through it.
- 14:33SPEAKER_01: Because nine times out of ten, Jake, someone will call me and say, Oh, yeah, but I want to buy some gold bars.
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: And I say, Okay, that's fine.
- 14:38SPEAKER_01: Are you aware they're VAT exempt uh they're VAT exempt, but you will have to pay couple gains tax?
- 14:42SPEAKER_01: Oh no, I didn't know that.
- 14:43SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no worries.
- 14:44SPEAKER_01: Let's go back to square one.
- 14:45SPEAKER_01: Let me get the information out to you, have a read-through, write down the questions, then we can take it from there.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: Yeah, precisely.
- 14:52SPEAKER_00: Is there a chance that there could be a sort of swift uptake in demand?
- 14:58SPEAKER_00: We're hearing speculation that demand for physical assets will rise after the budget is announced.
- 15:04SPEAKER_00: Yep.
- 15:04SPEAKER_00: Budget's not too far away, but if demand suddenly surges, what what would you think the effects of that would be?
- 15:10SPEAKER_01: Uh we saw it last year, as I say, it went up 23% between September and December.
- 15:15SPEAKER_01: Wait times and delivery times because it became no different, Jake, to any other asset class.
- 15:20SPEAKER_01: If everyone's trying to sell or buy at the same time, supply and demand becomes an issue and the costs start going up.
- 15:24SPEAKER_01: Yeah, delivery times were getting up towards six, seven weeks of uh standard industry October last year.
- 15:30SPEAKER_01: So do not be too late to the race, is probably the best recommendation.
- 15:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah, for sure.
- 15:35SPEAKER_00: So, how should someone weigh up the risk of waiting against the risk of buying right now without pretending anyone can predict the perfect time to buy?
- 15:47SPEAKER_01: That's a very good question, Jake.
- 15:48SPEAKER_01: That's a very good question.
- 15:50SPEAKER_01: The long and short, as long as I've been doing this, the bottom line is the longer you wait, the less you get, and the more you pay.
- 15:58SPEAKER_01: That is the truth of it.
- 15:59SPEAKER_00: I think people's argument would be that there has been a little bit of a pullback recently and it's lasted a little while now.
- 16:06SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I I think it's a fair uh view.
- 16:09SPEAKER_01: There's um uh Felix and Friends is a YouTube channel I really recommend people to watch if if if you're well, if you're on YouTube listening to this, go over to Felix and Friends, watch his video on why the gold price dropped.
- 16:20SPEAKER_01: He is an incredibly intelligent man who explains it in very simple terms as to why it was being manipulated and held back.
- 16:28SPEAKER_01: The bottom line is this is a finite resource, we can't print more of it like money.
- 16:33SPEAKER_01: So, in terms of timing, honestly, if I had a pound for every time someone said, Oh, I wish I did this a year ago, I've I've never had clients lose, Jake.
- 16:41SPEAKER_01: That's that's the truth of it.
- 16:42SPEAKER_01: You hold long enough in gold, you always come out in the green.
- 16:45SPEAKER_00: That's true.
- 16:46SPEAKER_01: That for the last 20 years, that's been the case.
- 16:49SPEAKER_01: So, yes, have we had a pullback?
- 16:51SPEAKER_01: Is that the time you should be buying 100%?
- 16:54SPEAKER_00: So, just finally, then, what's the one thing you would want someone listening to remember about preparing their wealth for the budget and the uncertainty that will almost absolutely follow?
- 17:04SPEAKER_01: Get your ducks in a row now, start making some moves, not saying chuck everything at it, but start moving into other areas, start protecting yourself a little bit more, and start doing some proper research.
- 17:15SPEAKER_01: Call us, speak to one of the team, speak to someone who can start giving you some ideas on whatever options are out there for you.
- 17:23SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 17:24SPEAKER_00: With the UK budget approaching rapidly, there's still lots we don't know.
- 17:29SPEAKER_00: But one thing is definitely clear.
- 17:31SPEAKER_00: Understanding what's best for your money, your savings, and the assets you hold has never been more important.
- 17:37SPEAKER_00: Whether you're considering buying physical gold, looking at silver, or simply trying to make sense of the economic uncertainty ahead, the key is to understanding the risks, do your research, and avoid making decisions based purely on fear and speculation.
- 17:53SPEAKER_00: To learn more about physical gold and the potential tax advantages available to UK residents, take a look at our guide.
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: You can go over to guide.directbullion.com where you can see our guide to tax-free gold.
- 18:06SPEAKER_00: It's packed with information you definitely won't get anywhere else.
- 18:10SPEAKER_00: And we'd love to hear from you.
- 18:11SPEAKER_00: What are you most concerned about heading into the UK budget?
- 18:15SPEAKER_00: Are you worried about potential taxes?
- 18:17SPEAKER_00: Are you worried about the value of your savings?
- 18:20SPEAKER_00: Or just curious about whether right now is the right time to buy gold?
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: Send your questions to info at directbullion.com or just leave a comment below and we will answer them in the next episode.
- 18:32SPEAKER_00: Don't remember to enter our competition to win two ounces of silver, all the details are in the description below.
- 18:39SPEAKER_00: If you've found this episode useful as well, please do like and subscribe if you're on YouTube, or follow the Bullion Advantage on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, so you never miss an update.
- 18:49SPEAKER_00: It also really helps more people discover the show.
- 18:52SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much for listening today.
- 18:55SPEAKER_00: Stay informed, stay prepared, and most importantly, stay golden.
- 18:59SPEAKER_00: The purchase of gold does not constitute an investment or offer financial returns.
- 19:04SPEAKER_00: Gold is considered a store of value and not an investment product.
- 19:08SPEAKER_00: Past performance of gold is not indicative of future performance.
- 19:12SPEAKER_00: Prices and values of precious metals can fluctuate and are influenced by various market factors.
- 19:17SPEAKER_00: Direct bullion does not provide investment or tax advice and recommends that you conduct your own independent research before making any purchasing decisions.