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The Iran War is exposing the cracks in America’s Middle East strategy · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

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It's the tip of the spear in the epic battle to defend the United States of America.
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The national security hour exposes the wolves in sheep's clothing and a nefarious plots to undermine and destroy U.S.
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national security.
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Hello and welcome to the National Security Hour.
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Thank you for joining us on the mission.
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The National Security Hour is the tip of the spear in the epic battle to defend the United States of America.
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I'm Brandon Weinkert, your friendly neighborhood host.
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You can catch me right here every single Wednesday night at 8 p.m.
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Eastern.
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And you can follow me at We the Brandon on Twitter X.
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Joined today by a really fascinating individual.
1:00
I got to meet him, I think about a couple weeks ago, three weeks ago.
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We were on a panel together on Al-Arabia English, uh debating what was then the pending war in Iran or against Iran.
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Kieran Andrew, he is a doctor of political economy.
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Uh, and he is a well-known international uh English-based uh British-based uh political commentator.
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Karen, it's great to have you here with us.
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Uh it's um fantastic to be here with you, Brandon.
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Thanks for asking me on.
1:29
I'm happy to do it.
1:30
I think you have a very important perspective.
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We are recording this.
1:34
I think that's I don't have my readers on, but Friday, March 6th in the noon hour, East Coast time, day seven of the war, correct?
1:44
Yeah, it's it feels like it both feels like it's been going on for years, and yet not it not very long at all.
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It's this odd sort of moment in time.
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Now you you have an interesting perspective.
1:55
I I think that's different from what many in the audience have.
1:58
We're very American, so we get what the media tells us, and you know, I try to break through that.
2:03
But what are you seeing and hearing on the ground right now?
2:06
Is the war going as wonderfully as Secretary of War, Pete Heggseth, keeps telling the American people.
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Well, what I'm hearing, Brandon, and I'll be interested to hear your perspective as well.
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Picked up bits and pieces of it, but to know more, is that Iran is happy to sit back and fire as many of those missiles as it possibly can at US bases in the region, um, and hit Israel as much as it can fire as many of those rockets at Israel as possible.
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And of course, some of those are intercepted by the Iron Dome.
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Many of them are intercepted by the Iron Dome.
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But it is basically settled into a position where it was it knew it was going to get attacked.
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It knew it was probably going to get attacked ferociously.
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And so its strategy is not protect everybody or protect ourselves at all costs, because ultimately the regime knows the country knows that that isn't possible when you're up against the might of the US military.
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We'll come to all of that in a minute.
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Instead, their strategy is let's raise the costs.
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Let's raise the costs as high as possible economically.
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And of course, we're seeing that with energy costs rising, spiking, stock markets in certain sectors tumbling or around certain financial products tumbling.
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And, you know, this is very, very serious stuff for any politician or anybody in charge of public policy that is concerned about household inflation, but is concerned about consumer inflation.
3:45
And so for for, you know, uh we come from different political traditions, I think, Brad, but you and I are of one mind on a lot of the aspects around this war and a lot of the aspects, let's broaden the conversation and talk about you know war in general, what the role that war plays, national security.
4:03
I'm fascinated by your excuse me, perspective.
4:06
But my what I'm what I'm seeing from here, and what I'm hearing, and what I'm hearing from the region is that Iran is basically sitting back, taking its pounding, and then in exchange, it's raising the costs as much as it can, both militarily, but mainly actually economically right now in the region.
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And it could keep doing that.
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You'll know more about this than I will.
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You'll know more about the quantum the sort of quantifiable side of things here with the rockets and so on.
4:34
But it's able to do that for for we suspect quite a long time, right?
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Yeah.
4:39
Oh, I I I mean, I am currently, I was told uh uh the last week I was told that President Trump himself is very angry with me.
4:48
Uh apparently the White House has me marked for you know blacklisting and whatnot, and I don't really care.
4:54
Um, but but the reason is because I every time Hegseth speaks, I have the ability because of what I how I know things and just reading a room and knowing history um uh to to basically refute everything he's saying.
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Um, and so you hear this a lot coming out of the DOD or the Department of War, I don't know what they're calling themselves today.
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Uh, you're seeing them, you know, well, we've hit this system and we've got you know, they're doing the checklist thing that they always do.
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But it it doesn't seem like it's really defeated the Iranian regime.
5:31
No, the regime is hardened, I think.
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I think they were preparing, like you said, for 47 years they've been in some way, preparing for this very day.
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And, you know, and I say this, you know, as objectively as I can.
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Hats off to them because they've figured out, I mean, this is what good strategists do.
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They have figured out how to get into the American mindset and how to complicate our ability to run roughshod over them.
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And I think you saw that.
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And feel free to can't jump in.
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I think you saw that with the Iranian uh foreign minister yesterday on NBC inviting the American invasion, saying, bring it on.
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It kind of reminded me of the Vietnamese during the Vietnam War.
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Like we we're ready to kill Americans.
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And that's scary because I don't think we should be involved in this at all.
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Right.
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Absolutely.
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And it's it's kind of like the you know, the thing I'm forgive me, and I hope your audience forgives me.
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I'm gonna refer to your civil war all those years ago.
6:25
But it's kind of it's kind of like the thing that they used to say about the Union versus the South, right?
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It's like this, you know, the the Union, the South could win lots of little battles, as indeed it did at the beginning of the war.
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But because of the overwhelming asymmetry in resources, they just need to lose one for that to be an enormous Trojan horse for for the North.
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Now, obviously, the asymmetry in this scenario exists in the opposite direction, right?
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So it did the logic is inverted.
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But actually, because Iran has settled into a state of affairs where it expects to lose purely on military hardware alone, or on the question of you know hard material resources alone, that actually any raising of the costs, any strike back, any kind of imposition placed on the global economy could seriously derail US interests, right?
7:18
And and you know, one thing that that you know I was pleased about when we talked, Brandon, and when we debated this this Israeli woman is I I detect that there is this growing this kind of groundswell constituency on the right in America or in the US.
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I don't want to mischaracterize you by the way, as on the free of fill for example.
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I generally am more on that.
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Nowadays I'm sort of uh in no man's land, but uh nobody wants me.
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But but no, I am generally of that.
7:48
Yeah, yeah.
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And it's a it's a very it it's a it's a really noble tradition, and you know, there are things I disagree with things I agree with.
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But it's at this area of it, hugely noble tradition.
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I know that you've got a strong isolationist.
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I'm not saying again that you're a nice but strong isolationist trend or tendency in the American kind of political psyche that goes all the way back to Patrick Henry, right?
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For example, right?
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This is our tradition.
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Right, exactly.
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And it only started to change around Monroe and beyond that into Ted T R, Teddy Roosevelt, who who, you know, there are things I admire about Teddy Roosevelt, but but that's not one of them.
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But you know, so I I think that ultimately um I can I can see, and you don't need to be a seer to see it, that there is a growing constituency on the American right, traditional American right, you Tucker Carlson and so on, who who are waking up to, or I don't want to, you know, maybe you've been alert to it forever, but in Tucker's case, maybe more alert to it now than previously, where it's like, wait, what are we getting in exchange from Israel?
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And and and you know, it doesn't mean we hate Israel.
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They have you know you hate Israel, they Tucker hates he's always at pains to stress that.
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It's like, no, these relationships are transactional ultimately.
9:02
Yes.
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And and and so what's the transaction here going in the opposite direction?
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You know, what are we so I mean, I guess I want to ask you.
9:10
Yeah.
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It, you know, was that something that you kind of had an epiphany around more recently, or is it something that you've always felt?
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It's definitely more recently, and it's and it it started around probably.
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I mean, I was always sort of I was aware of it.
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I worked on Capitol Hill, and so I was always uncomfortable with what was known, and people on the hill who worked there know what I'm talking about, who it was known as APAC Week.
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That wasn't what it was called, but that's what it was.
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And uh there was an incident in which my boss, who was on the Foreign Affairs Committee at the time in the house, there was something going on that we did not support that the Republican Party leadership supported.
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And basically, I was told.
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I cannot say no to this Israeli request.
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That bothered me.
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Right.
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I still, because of the the way the party was structured, I still was a good loyal soldier, and I thought, okay, well, the Israelis are our friends still at the end of the day.
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And I think on some level they still are an ally, but we need to be getting into the condition of looking at the world as a true realist and saying there are real delineations between Israeli interests and US interests.
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And we and so I really started thinking, I would say.
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So like after 10-7, I do believe, okay, Hamas attacked, whether that was a stand down order by Netanyahu, you know, and I we can, if we have time, I'm happy to talk because I have a lot of questions about how that whole thing played out.
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But there's no doubt that Hamas went on a killing spree.
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So I don't, I don't deny Israel the right to respond.
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I we would respond.
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I think Iran would respond if it were attacked similarly.
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That's just the way it is.
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What I I started having trouble with was what I perceived was every time Netanyahu ran into a political problem at home, and he's got a lot of them, he would open up another front, or he'd blow up more apartment complexes in Gaza.
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And it's like, dude, like you're losing the moral authority.
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Like Israel had a lot of sympathy going into the war.
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And now he's dragging by the nose my president, a guy that I supported three times.
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I lost my career in 2016 because I was such a vocal supporter of.
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And he and Trump is being led around the nose by this guy, Netanyahu, who clearly, clearly is trying to save his own skin at the expense of his allies and at the expense of his own people.
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And that's really despicable.
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No, no, I totally agree.
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I totally agree.
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And look, I come from a different perspective, right?
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I well, at least I start from a different first principle.
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Now you have family in Gaza, don't you?
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I think you have them.
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Uh next to the West Bank.
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So you'll know the different kind of um jurisdictions or you know, the way it's delineated.
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And my family is an old East Jerusalem family.
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Yeah.
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And they're still there.
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My dad is still there.
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And you know, you know, history to the defeated may say alas.
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And you know, I understand.
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And this is what I always say to the Israelis when I'm on the shows with them.
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I say to them, look, let's cut the bullshit.
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We you know and I know that the only reason this is happening is because you have uh uh overwhelming preponderance of of power on your side.
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Because of America.
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Because of America, exactly.
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Let's not pretend that you know you care about two-state solution or you know, and and I don't think countries are static, they don't stay in the same place forever, right?
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So maybe it's possible to to claim and there's demographic, you know, there's kind of cephalogical evidence to bear this out that in the 1960s and 70s, there was a kind of more of a critical mass for a two-state solution in Israel.
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It doesn't exist anymore.
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Absolutely doesn't exist anymore.
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And and and you know, so so that's my reading of the the basic history.
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But when I spoke to my dad the other day, you know, this is this is something that I try and stress all the time, get back to first principles with Israelis when I'm debating them or whatever.
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Is they see the world through the lens of their own self-interest, and of course, Americans do the same, and British do the same, and Palestinians do the same.
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Just because you don't have any power, it doesn't mean that that any of the stuff feels any less shitty, you know, or stings any less.
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Yeah, um, or that you don't have you're not, you know, your own rational you're not you don't want to be the kind of the architect of your own life.
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That's right any less.
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You know, my dad is a highly educated cosmopolitan guy, taught himself German in a month when he went to Germany in the 80s to to to work.
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He had big big ideas about the world, big dreams, and and and he's born in 1960, Brandon, right?
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Six summers later, the tanks rolled into his neighborhood.
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So if you measure his life in years not spent under Israeli military occupation, he's a boy of six, you know, and and this is this is his whole life.
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This is his whole life.
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So, you know, again, the strong do what they can, the weak do what they must, but I always try to remind these people, you know, history didn't start on October 7th.
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It's terrible what happened on October 7th, but I condemn it, you know.
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I condemn the killing of civilians.
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And if there were war crimes there, which it looks like there were, there should be they should be investigated, right?
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But starving and putting the population of Gaza on a diet.
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And that was, yeah, that was and you know, refusing people cancer treatment.
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You know, people get the people fill up with rage when you do things like that.
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Of course they do.
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And when you, you know, subject them to humiliation, animalistic treatment like that over long periods of time.
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In the end, you are guaranteeing vice.
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One of the great quotes by one of your presidents, uh, John Fitzgerald Kennedy was um those who make peaceful resistance impossible make violent resistance inevitable.
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And that's not, again, in any way to to condone what happened on the world.
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Statement was shot shortly afterwards, right?
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Exactly.
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And it never by whom, Wink, yeah.
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Damona, uh, yeah, exactly.
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No, you're absolutely right.
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So, you know, this is the thing, it's like the Palestinians have a strong sense of their own self-interest too.
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They might have been reduced to beggars.
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Don't deny that.
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I don't deny that.
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We might have been reduced to beggars by the Israeli occupation, but they have a very strong sense of their own self-interest.
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And if that is so systematically thwarted and they're humiliated at generation after generation, eventually you are inviting violence on yourself.
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That is just the reality, right?
15:52
Now, of course, once you get to the point of October 7th, of course, Israel's going to react, and we can look at it from that point onwards.
15:58
But it's kind of like wandering into a film in the third act or at the beginning of the third act, right?
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19:21
It's like 75 years of dispossession.
19:24
And yeah, and have you debated Conricus?
19:27
You know, Jonathan Conricus.
19:29
Oh no, I've never debated him.
19:30
No.
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Yeah.
19:31
I've had him a couple of times now.
19:33
Pierce Morgan, I was on with him and Al Arabia.
19:36
And you know, the guy is just unfortunately, he typifies a kind of Israeli, at least among the political class, mendacity, where they say, on the one hand, we believe in a two-state solution.
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On the other hand, they say Judea and Samaria.
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So then it's like, well, dude, where where is this two-state solution?
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Are you gonna are you gonna invent more land?
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Are you gonna magic more land?
19:58
You know, it's over in the West Back.
20:00
The Gaza Strip, which is 22%, by the way, of our historic homeland, or it's nowhere.
20:04
So why don't you just be honest about that?
20:06
Well, and I actually want to ask you, and uh because I think most Americans, and there's a really dangerous strain of Christian Zionism in the United States.
20:15
And you know, again, as a Republican Party operative, I used to deal with a lot of these people.
20:20
A lot of people you would recognize I know and they know me, and I've noticed that they don't want to engage me after my Tucker debate, my Tuck not debate, but my my my Tucker interview, um, they're afraid to, because I think they know that I know what's going on, so it's better to ignore me, uh, which is fine by me, by the way.
20:38
Uh, but I wanted to ask you, why are the Israelis treating the Palestinians the way that they have been doing?
20:49
Because you know, I hear from the Israelis, I have a lot of contacts in Israel.
20:53
I have a lot of contacts, formerly IDF people who are like, and actually, it's interesting.
20:59
A lot of the IDF guys I know, they're not all gung-ho about this war.
21:04
It's the really interesting thing.
21:05
A lot of these retired IDF guys who moved down here to Florida, you talk to them and they're like, yeah, we'll see.
21:10
I don't know.
21:11
And it's like, you know, it's like, well, why are we starting this then?
21:15
So why do you why why are the Israelis treating the the people of Gaza this way if it's not about dare I say ethnic cleansing?
21:23
Okay, so there's a couple of things.
21:24
First of all, just to jump off the back of what you were saying about military.
21:29
I have no unsurprisingly, given where I come from or where my family is, I have no love for the IDF.
21:35
But I will say this, that often you find that the people who actually have to fight these wars, who actually have to get their hands dirty, not i.e.
21:45
not the politicians, are the ones who are most reluctant to be gung-ho or maximalist, right?
21:55
About the fighting and about the engagement, you know, the kind of engagement directly with with populations and with uh innocent people and civilians and so on.
22:05
So that's the first thing.
22:06
And you see, actually, with in America, you see often the generals are the ones who are the most cautionary, yeah, the most kind of conservative, because they they know that they have to take the risk of shoulder the burden ultimately of people going into war, they might know some of them immediately beneath them, or they're part of the tradition, it means a lot to them.
22:24
The military is something that they take very seriously, it's got symbolic power for them as well as real lived experience power.
22:31
That's something that politicians, you know, many.
22:34
I mean, there's a shameful tradition, right?
22:36
In your country and my country of people of politicians sending people to war having never served, having their kids never serve, having their kids never serve, getting them out.
22:45
Yeah.
22:46
Exactly.
22:47
Exactly.
22:48
And so that's a real shame.
22:50
And I think that's that that's the first thing.
22:52
So the bigger question, why does Israel treat Palestinians as it does?
22:57
I think there's only one conclusion to be drawn.
23:01
And I say this, I want when I say this, I want you to know, and I want your audience to know that I do not monster anybody.
23:09
You know, we're all people.
23:11
The world is a complex and confusing place, and and people are complex and confusing.
23:17
But it is possible.
23:19
I think there's enough historical evidence to show us that it is possible for societies to get themselves stuck in ruts and to basically go a little bit mad collectively around a particular um bête noir, like around a particular kind of figure of hate, or around a particular, I don't know, motif or obsession, and and you know, it doesn't start a huge stretch of the imagination, but uh you had in a part of South Africa, a majority population that was mistreated, you had a system that was built up on top of that.
23:57
You had in the deep south in the United States, forgive me.
24:00
You have you're right, you know, you had a systematic persecution, it wasn't just sporadic violence based on the state.
24:06
Yeah, it was institutionalized.
24:08
It was institutionalized and it was basically profit making, right?
24:11
In many ways, and it was also self-defeating in the long run in terms of profit.
24:15
But but but it was it was embedded, it was richly embedded in the in the kind of the topsoil.
24:20
And the same goes, and of course, you could draw I I it's a controversial one, but Nazi Germany, you know, people lost their heads and uh for whatever reasons descended into madness, but they were still Germans, they were still people, you know, but they they descended into madness.
24:36
That's what makes them scary.
24:38
That's what makes them scary is that they were actually not monsters, they were people who were people who did monstrous things in the people of a flawed ideology.
24:46
Exactly.
24:47
And so I would say it's a perfect jumping off point.
24:50
I think Zionism, and this is a controversial thing to say, perhaps, but it's less controversial than it was two years ago.
24:56
I think Zionism is a is a very flawed ideology, and it's a flawed ideology because it basically earmarked land that was inhabited by more than half a million people, somewhere maybe three quarters of a million people at top estimates.
25:13
It earmarked that land as the future exclusive homeland of a group of people, right?
25:22
Self-identified ethno-religious group of people, and it earmarked that territory as the exclusive birthright of those people.
25:30
And what and so, I mean, look, 1917, right?
25:34
Let's take a date, not at random, the Balfour Declaration, which for anybody who doesn't know was the date that the British uh foreign secretary Arthur Balfour, who had previously been prime minister in the UK, said we're gonna probably get Palestine of Turkey, the Ottoman Empire is collapsing.
25:52
We reckon we we agree that in the future it should be a Jewish homeland, right?
25:58
So 1917, big year in that region.
26:03
The do you I mean, Brandon, you might know, but I want to ask you, do you know what the demographic breakdown was in 1917 when when my ancestors?
26:13
Yeah.
26:14
Uh I believe there was uh I mean it was mostly, wasn't it, Arabs and Christians and uh uh yeah.
26:21
So it was not a large, it was not a large Jewish population, if I'm not mistaken.
26:25
It was 94% Palestinian Arab and six percent Jewish, and three percent of that six percent had come in the past 20 years.
26:37
But we know that based on Ottoman censuses in the late 19th century, right?
26:41
Yep.
26:42
That is, I mean, by any measure, complete insanity to pledge a country that is six percent.
26:49
I mean, it's like going to uh it's way beyond going to the UK because the UK is about 80% kind of British white, and but it's like going to a country and saying, hey, here's this minority, they've got six percent of which three percent arrived 20 years ago, we're gonna give it to you to so to them.
27:04
And and and so if you do that, you guarantee a century or more of violence.
27:11
Of course you do, unless you're gonna completely eradicate a million people, and now of course, five, 10 million people because population growth, and Palestinians, I know this from my own experience, they reproduce at a high rate.
27:24
My dad's got uh my dad was one of 13.
27:27
So, you know, it's grown to like the international Palestinian population is something like 15 million people.
27:33
It guarantees it guarantees if if what you're really committed to is cleansing that land to create a an ethno-homogenous Jewish exclusive state when you've already got nearly a million people living there, it's not rocket science.
27:50
You've got to kill those million people, you've got to drive them out.
27:52
And that's what that's what we you that's what we're probably seeing, you think in Gaza.
27:57
Gradually, everything that has everything that we've seen over the past 80 years has flown from that, flowed from that.
28:03
And of course, you know, none of these things operate in a vacuum.
28:08
Ideology doesn't operate in a vacuum.
28:09
You could say Zionism demands this.
28:12
Okay, fine, but then there are lots of realities to try and navigate and contend with, right?
28:16
So of course, and you know, human society is complicated, and there were people in Israel who were more committed to exterminating the Palestinians, and then there were people who are less committed to exterminating the Palestinians.
28:26
There were genuine tendencies in Israeli society over the years that were maybe you know more comfortable with coexistence for at least some period of time, maybe two unfortunately the former tendency, the ethnic cleansing tendency, the the eradicationist tendency has won over.
28:50
Yeah.
28:51
And you know, you bring up the British, and that's that's an excellent point, and I and I I don't want to move off that, but yeah, I want you when you were talking about Britain, I was reminded of um Paul Johnson's um magnificent magnum opus of the history of the modern times.
29:06
He does have a section, and it's been about 15 years since I've read the book, but if I remember correctly, he had a section in there where he talked about the founding of the state of Israel, and one of the things he really was sort of dinging was the British, because he, you know, he outlines not only the way in which the Israelis were being armed, uh, Irgun and whatnot, but then the British turned around and gave all of their excess weapons to the grand Mufti of Palestine, who apparently was and and if you could just maybe just talk a little bit because you know, those of us who've done counterterrorism policy, we are familiar with some of the history there.
29:49
Um what role did that how did that play in on the Palestinian side in terms of sort of creating these two warring groups now where you've got Israel, yeah.
30:00
It's an interesting point.
30:01
I I confess I haven't read Paul Johnson's book.
30:03
You strongly recommend it, eh?
30:05
Yeah, it's uh it's it's comprehensive.
30:07
Now you might not agree with some of the conclusions, but I I just I it almost was like reading J.R.
30:11
Tolkien only for a history.
30:13
And I love Tolkien.
30:14
I love that.
30:15
I love us.
30:15
So I love that stuff.
30:16
Whether I agree or disagree, it's always uh good to enrich, you know.
30:20
Yeah, but it's it's a big book.
30:21
I mean, you gotta dedicate it.
30:23
Took me a while to read it.
30:24
All this is.
30:25
I'm gonna seek it out.
30:25
Yeah.
30:26
So what I would say about all of that is this.
30:28
So the key thing to understand about the British role in Palestine is you can almost it's amazing how radically different the British Empire was in those what was it?
30:47
30 short years from 1917 to 1945, when the war ends, and then of course, 48, May 1548, when Israel declares independence and the Nakbah really speeds up.
31:02
It's already started a few months before Nakba being Palestinian Arabic word for catastrophe and and the ethnic cleansing in Palestine really begins at pace then, right?
31:10
So in those 31 years, um, it is extraordinary how much the British Empire declines.
31:18
Yeah.
31:18
And so when the British is very similar to what we're experiencing in the American Empire, in my opinion.
31:23
You know, and and I wouldn't disagree with you.
31:27
And I think it's such a shame that I mean this genuinely.
31:31
I'm not trying to be sycophantic.
31:33
It's such a shame that people like Trump and others don't listen to your voice.
31:37
I appreciate that.
31:38
Voices like Tucker's.
31:39
I mean, Tucker, I don't agree with him on that much, to be honest, but he's been blisteringly brilliant on all of this.
31:45
I understand exactly what is going on with American foreign policy interests being captured.
31:51
Anyway, that as do you.
31:52
That aside, thank you.
31:54
The British in 1917, you know, it was like there were infinite tomorrows in 1917.
32:02
I mean, the British Empire was already showing signs of decline, probably.
32:06
You know, most historians would say it wasn't the Victorian Heyday or you know, prior to that, the Georgian Hey Day.
32:13
But it was still this big beast with a lot of life in it, or so it seemed, right?
32:19
And it was in that at that juncture that of course that the collapse of the Ottoman Empire created opened up colonial space, you know, and whenever that happens, you know, nature abores a vacuum, right?
32:33
With we're both students aboard a vacuum, the British, the French, they lined up, and of course, that's where Sykes Pico comes in, right?
32:41
In 1916, a secret um agreement between the two foreign secretaries in the U in UK and France, they agree to share Lebanon and Palestine and Iraq and Syria and Syria and the Russians were also involved in that too.
32:55
They were sort of on the periphery, but they were also involved in that colonial agreement.
32:59
People forget.
33:00
Yeah, that's true.
33:02
And so, but then of course there was big regime change in Russia to find out.
33:05
Of course, of course.
33:06
Yeah, Lenin changed it all, yeah.
33:08
But you're absolutely right.
33:08
The czarist regime was.
33:10
So anyway, then there's this at that moment, as I say, it seemed like they were infinite tomorrows, both for the French and the British.
33:16
So they're like rubbing their hands together, and they get hold of they they do deals with with um Sheriff uh with um I forget his name right now, but um King uh King Faisal or King Faisal, yeah.
33:29
King Faiser, yeah, yeah, King Faisal, exactly, and Abdullah and the and the Heshemites.
33:33
Yep, right.
33:35
And that's that.
33:36
And and and and then if you jump forward, because we could go through all the minutiae.
33:41
Yeah, I could too, because this is yeah, I love it.
33:44
Fascinating theory.
33:44
Yeah, it's a fascinating point.
33:45
But if you jump forward to the 1940s, look, there is a cult of Winston Churchill in this country, and not unreasonably in lots of ways, but uh unreasonably in some ways.
33:56
And I I would say that the and actually it's usually the con well, it used to be the conservatives in this country that that thought that Churchill's stock was being overvalued.
34:06
What they said was, you know, he he could have carved out an isolation.
34:11
I I don't agree with this, by the way.
34:12
But that the argument goes that he could have carved out an isolationist position, which would have kept Britain sovereign and so on, but wouldn't have got involved in a war, which ultimately did bankrupt it.
34:24
Yeah, and meant that the that the British Empire completely folded as a result of World War II.
34:29
I think that's a fair assessment.
34:30
Right.
34:31
Yeah.
34:31
And there are other things going on too.
34:33
You know, there were the winds of change, which Harold McMillan talked about 15 years later.
34:38
Genuine, genuine rebellion and and you know, clamoring for freedom in the global south, you know, all those things are very were very powerful as well and and causal in their power.
34:49
But the major decisive financial blow to the British Empire was World War II.
34:54
Yeah.
34:54
And so and so Britain staggers out of that, and it's only three short years between the end of the war and the foundation of the state of Israel.
35:03
And basically what happened was they went in, they the Sykes Pico Accord was signed with lots of zeal.
35:08
The Balfour Declaration was made, but the British thought we can have uh Jewish majority state, but we will ultimately control it.
35:17
It will remain a British protectorate, um, and it will function very well for our strategic imperial interests because it's all about maintaining East of Suez as well.
35:27
That's what I think.
35:28
Exactly.
35:29
Exactly.
35:30
We will have a rational buffer between the Heshemites and Ibn Saud and all the votes guys in Saudi Arabia and the Suez Canal.
35:36
Yeah.
35:37
And that was that was that was the driving motive.
35:39
There were other motives in there too, but that was the driving strategic material.
35:43
Um, you know, the the instrumental rational motive.
35:46
And then of course they couldn't do that because what happened was there was huge Jewish migration or Zionist migration to to Palestine to my my you know, grandfather, great-grandfather's homeland.
35:59
And that completely changed the demographic composition from six percent when the Balfour Declaration was made, or three percent of the turn of the 20th century, to you know, increasing, increasing until it was almost 50-50, right?
36:11
By the time of the creation of the state of Israel.
36:14
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39:01
The national security hour is the tip of the spear in the epic battle to defend the United States of America.
39:07
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39:09
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39:13
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39:13
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39:17
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39:20
And as you mentioned, the Igun, Melechi, the the Palbach and the Haganah.
39:27
These were all, with the exception of Bahagana, which was more of an umbrella.
39:30
Yeah.
39:31
They were all terror, terror organizations.
39:33
I mean, yeah, we could call the paramilitary.
39:35
David Hotel bombing where they targeted British and American.
39:38
Exactly.
39:39
Yeah.
39:39
And you know, um the Igod and the Lehi produced free future Israeli prime ministers.
39:45
Yeah.
39:46
Malachim Begin, Yitzhak Shamir, um Ben Guri.
39:50
Uh excuse me, not Ben Gurion.
39:51
Um Yitzhak Rabin.
39:53
So you know we in Palestine at that time.
40:00
The life was becoming more and more untenable.
40:04
And for Palestinian Arabs, um, it was pretty clear that the increasing Jewish minority was determined not to share the land but to create a an ethnically homogenous state in all of historic Palestine, and that the Palestinian Arabs that they were basically they had a choice, they could either go, they could either flee to Jordan or to, and of course many of them did, or Egypt, or they could stay and fight for their homeland.
40:34
And um, you know, if you yeah, I mean, this is a maybe a bit of a wild card thing to say, Brandon.
40:39
But if you test the DNA of Palestinians and then you test the DNA of um canonites, people who were there four 3,700 years ago and and and forward, they have a striking level of ancestral persistence, what you call a genetics ancestral persistence.
40:56
Now, listen, I don't I don't believe that I'm a multiculturalist.
41:00
I don't think that states should be based on what your gen what your genes are, but if the question is indigenity, if the question is, are these people indigenous?
41:09
Did they have a right to be here?
41:11
Unquestionably, and actually more than many people because there's less ancestral persistence in most places in the world than there is in Palestine.
41:20
So of course, all of that violence and and you know, it wasn't it, of course, Palestinians organized.
41:26
I'm not gonna I don't want to paint us as this kind of halcyon people that were, and also partly because I don't want to paint us as victims with no agency, right?
41:36
Of course, Palestinians tried to resist, of course there was violence, um, reprisals and you know, uh so on against why why is Hamas so prevalent in Gaza?
41:48
Is it just because they're the only ones standing?
41:51
Is there some sympathy with the ideology of Hamas?
41:54
Is it just a national resistance thing?
41:56
Because Hamas is, I mean, yes, I believe Hamas is painting itself as a national resistance front on some level it is, but there is also a strain of Islamism, and feel free to correct me if I'm not.
42:06
No, no, no, no, no, you're right.
42:07
You're right.
42:07
Yeah, um, I tell you what it was, it was part of a broader term.
42:11
Um, and you'll know this as well, Brandon, from you know, your uh copious kind of national security education and and and work, but it was part of a broader turn away from secular resistance in the Arab world, so the PLO is no longer viable in their eyes.
42:29
That's this is the Palestinian theater of it, right?
42:32
But the broader war to situate it, it's like a transition from Nasserism in the 1940s and 50s in Egypt or Bathism in Iraq or wherever, not that that was a good thing, by the way.
42:45
Right, right, right, right.
42:47
Um, a transition from that kind of secular emancipatory ideology and organizing around that principle, that gradual shift that we see towards Islamic fundamentalism or Islamism, political Islam and so on, right?
43:05
And that was something that swept the entire region from Pakistan, Afghanistan all the way up to Turkey, right?
43:13
And and and across North Africa as well.
43:15
And I think mainly that can be explained by the failure of the secular movements to liberate the people from you know the vestiges of Western colonialism and make sure that there's a square deal in the economy, you know.
43:33
These these are these are basic things, but you know, you and I know probably from reading history as much as we have, that if you don't if if people don't feel that resources are being shared fairly, yes, you know, eventually they're going to clamor for some alternative.
43:50
Often the most violent rise to lead that clamoring.
43:52
Yeah, exactly.
43:53
And and unfortunately, you know, the US backed a lot of bad people in the Middle East and the bad people in the Middle East rose to power, and there was this kind of unhealthy feedback loop.
44:06
And you know, uh it's easy to back project, right?
44:09
And be idealistic.
44:10
I can understand certain decisions.
44:13
Doesn't mean I agree with them in any way.
44:14
I think they're a lot of that was in the context of the cold war.
44:17
People think about that.
44:19
Exactly, exactly.
44:20
So, in the context of the cold war, you have people like um al Sadat being supported, and then Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, for example, or you have Hez Assad, you know, Bashar al Assad's father, and and like you say, it's in the context of the Cold War.
44:38
And it's like, well, if we don't become their patron, then the Soviets will, right?
44:43
And that that game is played everywhere, and it's a game of grand strategy and geopolitics from above, and I totally understand the calculations that were being made at the time.
44:53
Unfortunately, though, it doesn't change the outputs, you know.
44:56
If you've got a population that feels oppressed by a leader who's then backed by X or Y, whether that's Soviet Union or the US for whatever understandable high-level strategic reasons, eventually you're gonna get you know uh terrorism, yeah.
45:12
Or you're going to get anarchy, right?
45:14
And unfortunately, that's that's where we are.
45:18
That's where we are.
45:18
And of course, there are certain decisions that US presidents made that really didn't help with all of that.
45:23
I would argue Iraq was one of those.
45:25
Oh, that I well, so this is my theory, and I've said it on El Arabia before.
45:29
I think I said it to Christopher Steele, uh, who's no fan of mine.
45:33
Uh, but uh that basically the unipolar world order after the cold war ended the minute we invaded Iraq.
45:41
That was pretty much it.
45:42
We shredded any sense of normalcy, the the all remember George H.
45:48
W.
45:48
Bush, the law of the uh the the rule of law, not the law of jungle.
45:51
Well, that his son just took and said, sorry, dad, we're we're not doing it.
45:55
And we're still paying the price for that today.
45:58
Totally.
45:59
I couldn't agree more.
46:00
And you know, time has this strange sanitizing effect, doesn't it?
46:04
Because I I already got lots of people, I got a guy, really good friend of mine, he's from Mississippi, great guy.
46:10
Uh again, different political tradition, but pretty great guy.
46:12
You did some work for Mitt Romney um in the 2012 election.
46:16
And can you say uh Nathan?
46:18
Nathan um because I was involved with that back in the day.
46:23
Were you?
46:23
You probably crossed it.
46:24
He would have been a kid, right?
46:25
Yeah, okay.
46:26
Okay.
46:27
I was younger then too.
46:29
Well, maybe it was ages.
46:32
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
46:34
Um, but but you know, he he basically he was talking the other day about the differences between Trump and Bush Jr.
46:42
And I said, look, there are differences, there are significant differences, but there are also, I mean, uh, you you could argue that a lot of the conditions for this forever wars were created by Bush.
46:53
And and and and Trump's lazy anti-bushism.
46:56
It's it's no, it's true though, it's true.
46:58
And so we're we're living, and I I don't know, I'm losing track of time.
47:02
Um yeah, I should keep an eye on it too.
47:04
Yeah, uh, okay.
47:05
So just let me know, and we can just, you know, we can end when you're ready.
47:09
Um, I I don't um but so we've we've established the sort of the order of of operations for how we got here.
47:17
It really does really does come down to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, doesn't it?
47:22
This is really what's causing a lot of the dislocations here.
47:26
Because you know, the Iranians are backing Hamas, they're backing Hezbollah to some degree, they're backing these organizations.
47:32
So this is really influencing a lot of it is, it is, and I it's the radial point almost, you know, it's the radio point out of which all of these other conflicts emerge.
47:43
And I I would I would I don't know how else to think of it, but it's it's I kind of just feel like what why is the world still backing this state that is clearly making things so much less safe for everyone else?
48:00
The Palestinians and the Israelis know this.
48:02
Palestinians have no power.
48:04
I mean, it's done, like we're done.
48:06
There's no there's nothing, you know, in the 1990s, you had an Arafat, you had an internationally recognized leader, you had you know a president in Clinton that that at least seemingly wanted believed in some kind of two-state solution, however lopsided it would have been in practice.
48:21
Well, that was until the Lewinsky scandal conveniently broke out, but we don't know.
48:24
Until the Lovinsky scandal, exactly.
48:26
And uh believe me, I'm no fan of that man uh at all.
48:29
Yeah, no, but I I think that there is something more to the Lewinsky scandal.
48:32
I I but anyway, we can we can yeah, let's just move on from that then.
48:36
We could talk about that.
48:37
That's a longer conversation.
48:38
I can talk about another time.
48:39
Yes, yes, have a conversation about that separately.
48:42
But no, but you know the the Palestinians.
48:45
I mean, a great powerful ruse that the Israelis maintain is that this is somehow some sort of war, but there's equipoise there or equilibrium of any kind.
48:57
There's absolutely not, and they know it.
48:59
We're in the palm of their hands, they have 99% of the power, you know, and the only thing that Palestinians really can do is is is in the diaspora is in international civil society, and their things have genuinely shifted.
49:14
And I think Israel should be very worried about people like you, and I mean this in the best possible way, I don't mean it like worried, worried people like you, people like Taka, because they don't give a shit what I think.
49:25
For a start, I'm Palestinian, for two, I'm on the left of the political spectrum, right?
49:30
So I I say that uh, you know, I'm I'm no false humility whatsoever.
49:34
I'm I'm good at lots of things, I've got my cohort, it's fine.
49:37
But they really care about what you and Tucker and people like you guys think.
49:42
Yeah, right.
49:43
Yeah, it's true.
49:44
It's true.
49:45
They really don't, they really don't want to lose you, and if they know they've lost you, they really don't want you to talk.
49:50
Yeah, well, that's the key is and and it's it's not even a question of winning or losing, it's a question of I just I I think that this is not in America's interest, what's going on?
49:57
And I think that if America were to step back.
50:01
You know, all of a sudden, I think a lot of things would become equalized.
50:04
I think it's a lot of I think if America stepped back and said, look, we're not we're not doing this anymore.
50:10
Suddenly, everybody has to come to a big beautiful table and they got to work it out because nobody's going to win this fight without the imbalance imposed by the U.S.
50:19
presence.
50:20
And let me end on this, Brandon, because I want to ask you.
50:24
What and then I've got to run off.
50:27
Yeah, yeah.
50:27
Keep talking like this all day.
50:29
But what do you think that that's gonna happen in our lifetimes?
50:33
I mean, do you think that that's possible?
50:35
I think the United States is going to strategically lose this fight with Iran, and I think that the end result is going to be if you look at our bases that were annihilated.
50:44
We're not getting those bases back.
50:46
I have very serious doubt that the Arabs will ever trust us again to have us.
50:50
It's a higher cost for them, not just financially, but now security-wise for them to host these bases.
50:57
I mean, look at what's happened.
50:58
So Bahrain alone, Bahrain alone, which by the way, I believe is majority Shiite, like the Iranian government is, but they got hit the hardest.
51:06
So there is absolutely nothing in their interest to allow us to come back.
51:12
So I think by by default, the end result is America is not going to be involved in the Middle East the way it used to be.
51:19
It's just sad it has to be done at such a high cost.
51:22
And you know, I'm already starting to see the incentive structures for elector uh, you know, politicians seeking public office, high public office shifting.
51:31
I'm already starting to see some of those incentive structures shifting because the discourse in America among you know, poll after poll bears this out, has massively shifted.
51:41
I mean, you you know, you guys, I don't mean you specifically, but you guys in the 90s and 2000s were so pro-Israel.
51:47
I mean, you know, you yeah, uh, yeah, it's been that way for decades.
51:51
And it's starting to significantly it started in the 80s with the rise of Christian Zionism, and the reason the Christian Zionists began was less to do with being pro-Israel or pro, you know, Zionism, and more to do with the fact that there was a sect of Christians in this country that were disturbed rightly so by the cultural revolution that happened in the 60s and 70s, and they were looking for alternatives to find a viable conservatism that was still respectful of their interpretation of the Bible, and they found it in the Schofield Bible, and it all that's where it all, and then the Israelis got involved because they said, Hey, this is an organized group, and we can influence them.
52:29
And so this is why you have Christian Zionism playing out the way it has for 40 years now.
52:34
Really interesting.
52:36
And then they the evangelicals formed a kind of electoral pact with Reagan, is that right?
52:41
Yeah, the moral majority is what it was called, and they're still very prevalent.
52:44
It was George W.
52:45
Bush.
52:46
That would they pushed him into office.
52:47
Yeah, um, you know, and they're they're highly influential still, but they are losing influence, particularly as the boomer generation dies off because the younger people in America are not of the same mind.
52:59
And and and their response to that is to try and beef up, you know, the empire through Larry Ellison buying up all of the BGS.
53:07
Telling everybody to shut up.
53:08
Yep, and everybody to shut up, complain out stuff.
53:11
But in the end, if there isn't a consumer market for it, it's just gonna go over people's heads or into a people.
53:16
I think they don't care on some level.
53:17
I think they just want to shut it down, and so if nobody buys it, then nobody's gonna get anything.
53:22
And I think that's really part of the whole the whole thing.
53:26
Is that one way or the other, they do not want this message getting out.
53:30
Yeah.
53:32
Well, it's important that it does because we don't want to live in the world, neither of us, whatever ends of the political spectrum we come from, neither of us want to live in a world that is defined by endless wars.
53:43
Well, I don't, yeah, and I think this is gonna end with the nuclear weapons at this point.
53:47
That's where I think this is headed.
53:49
And I wouldn't be convinced if Trump, and I don't want to sound crazy, and we can end it here, but uh I I'm not convinced that if Trump can't defeat this thing quickly on the lower end of combat, he's going to escalate using much bigger weapons, and and that doesn't negate the prospects of uh low low-yield nuke.
54:06
I think he's got himself in quite a corner, and I don't think he can get himself out of it, and he's gonna start getting desperate.
54:13
Terrifying that's where we are.
54:15
Well, it's a shame, it's a shame we end on such a blink note, but hopefully we'll be able to come back in years, yeah.
54:21
Yes, hopefully, yes.
54:23
Uh, he is Kieran Andrew, he is uh doctor of political economy, he is British-based political commentator.
54:30
You can find him all over the place.
54:31
He's on L R B and Piers Morgan.
54:34
What's your social media?
54:36
Where can people follow you?
54:37
Oh, they can follow me on Instagram, and it's K-I-E-R-A-N.
54:42
And then I can't remember the exact handle, but the surname is spelled A-N-D-R-I-E-U.
54:47
So if I type in K-I-E-R-A-N-A-N-D-R-I-E-U, they'll find me on Instagram and on Twitter.
54:53
Okay.
54:54
Well, thank you.
54:55
Yeah, okay.
54:56
Well, thank you so much for having for coming on.
54:59
Uh, it was a pleasure seeing you again.
55:01
We're gonna do this again, and maybe I'll get you on with Dr.
55:04
Michael Scheuer and some of these other guests I get.
55:07
Um, hey, thank you so much.
55:09
This is another episode of the National Security Hour and National Security Talk.
55:14
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55:20
I'm Nat Sec Guy at Emerald.tv.
55:24
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55:25
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55:27
And thank you for joining us on the mission.
55:30
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55:36
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55:45
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55:47
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55:57
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56:27
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56:32
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