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Crisis Hits Crypto📉Gas Hits $4⛽ · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Crisis is hitting crypto today. We're going to break it
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: down for you. Let's get started. I do want to
• 0:04
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  Speaker 1: Use our link. It's going to give you a little
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  Speaker 1: bit of a discount to get going. Let's go into
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: two things I want to kind of start off here with.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: First is this news which was breaking just a few
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: minutes ago. The Iranian prisident basically says, hey, Iran is
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: ready to end this war.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: We do want guarantees.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: There hasn't been a list of these guarantees just yet,
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  Speaker 1: but the US doock market and the crypto market started
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: to react.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: If you look at the charts quickly.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: You can see bitcoin is up almost two percent after
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: two days on Greek candles right now.
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  Speaker 2: If it closes out on that, if.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: You take a look at ethereum right now. We'll take
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: a look almost five percent up as well on two days.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So is the market starting to respond or is this
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: a position that will start to see retracement in these
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: markets based on the other macro events. And I'll break
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: down all those things because this starts to play into
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: a much more long game here around. How does the
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  Speaker 1: macro affect the long term market? Many people will say, well, hey, listen,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: if we get out of this war, the sentiment alone
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  Speaker 1: will start to address this. I want to show you
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  Speaker 1: case a little thing that's going to affect sentiment, and
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: that of course is going to be gas prices hitting
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  Speaker 1: four dollars for the first time since August of twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty two. That's a big deal. But at the same time,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: you've got a potential out here. Here's Bilagi talking about this.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: If you look at it from the MAGA perspective, Trump
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  Speaker 1: could declare victory. He moves on us, won't wait to
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  Speaker 1: st adny more people or treasure in the Middle East.
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  Speaker 1: Trump can say he's fully you know, he's fulfilled everything
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  Speaker 1: from his campaign promises, which was stop I ran from
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  Speaker 1: getting a nuke and no more long endalysts Middle Eastern worst.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: That's good because it would be you know, a long,
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  Speaker 1: endless one. At least we're out. The other thing that
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  Speaker 1: plays into this is from the Iranian side. It's you know,
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  Speaker 1: this from a long suffering Iranian people's perspective, Ending the
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  Speaker 1: war would now save countless lives. I think that's another
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  Speaker 1: big advantage because any type of an escalation is only
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  Speaker 1: going to get worse for both sides. And I think
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  Speaker 1: that's the thing that we've got to stay away from.
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  Speaker 1: The last one is US could declare victory and go home.
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  Speaker 1: Substantial diplomatic pressure, though, would be applied to Iran at
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  Speaker 1: that time, based on getting the straight up hormus open
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  Speaker 1: and getting ships or this would put everything back into
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  Speaker 1: the EU and many of the countries that really rely
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  Speaker 1: on that straight So last thing, of course, America shouldn't
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  Speaker 1: have to spend a single more scent, a single more
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  Speaker 1: soldier all in the Middle East.
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  Speaker 2: This can be resolved.
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  Speaker 1: This might be the off ramp, and you've got the
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  Speaker 1: President of Iran queuing in that maybe there's a deal
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  Speaker 1: here to be made. So maybe the next couple of
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  Speaker 1: days we could see something, all right. One thing to
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: consider is the Iranian position right now within the Stradhorn
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  Speaker 1: moves because they've built kind of a toll booth scenario
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  Speaker 1: that plays into this. If it stays in that capacity,
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  Speaker 1: this is the continuation of that because this is going
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  Speaker 1: to be a longer, more macro affected market. Twenty percent
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  Speaker 1: of global oilflow stay disrupted. Energy is a problem, and
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  Speaker 1: then inflation doesn't cool, it actually reaccelerates. The other thing
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  Speaker 1: it doesn't stop is some of the key things that
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  Speaker 1: also flow through there, which is fertilizer, LNG, liquid gas, food,
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  Speaker 1: all get pulled into these supply chains, and I agree
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  Speaker 1: they would tighten and growth slows again. This puts more
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  Speaker 1: pressure on all countries, including the United States. Other things
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  Speaker 1: that you have to kind of consider right now is
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  Speaker 1: pressure on actual companies inside the US, and I want
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  Speaker 1: to say inside the US companies that reside in the
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  Speaker 1: US but are in the Middle East. The RCG is
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  Speaker 1: now threatening Taesla, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing.
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  Speaker 1: This I think gets the attention of President Trump because
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  Speaker 1: he is all about the market. When you look further
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: into Trump's stock market, this is forty three, but really
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  Speaker 1: flip that and go to almost sixty percent of the
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred are trading below their two
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  Speaker 1: hundred day moving average.
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  Speaker 2: That would be the worst market breadth.
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  Speaker 1: Since May, and I think this is another factor that
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  Speaker 1: starts to put a lot of pressure on the Trump
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  Speaker 1: and administration to get this done again. The S and
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  Speaker 1: P tracking for its eighth consecutive close below the two
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  Speaker 1: hundred day moving average, longest streak we've seen since April
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  Speaker 1: and May of twenty five. You guys remember that was,
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  Speaker 1: of course, all about tariffs. I want to go to
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  Speaker 1: a clip real quick because this will get into a
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  Speaker 1: little bit more on whether or not we've got demand
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  Speaker 1: destruction and how long it's going to stay.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 3: So I do think we're going from a price shock
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  Speaker 3: to a price shock and a demand shock, and that's
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  Speaker 3: the economic logic of all these tipping points that are
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  Speaker 3: being triggered in the war. I must say I'm more
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  Speaker 3: worried than the average. I'm more worried than the average
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  Speaker 3: because of the dynamics of the war. It's an asymmetrical war.
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  Speaker 3: You have three parties, now four parties, all of whom
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  Speaker 3: believe they're winning, which makes it very hard to end
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  Speaker 3: this war. And the US is the only one that
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  Speaker 3: can declare victory but count impose outcomes. And I also
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  Speaker 3: look at the economy and I'm starting to see demand
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  Speaker 3: destruction in general. You know, I've gone from reduced risk
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  Speaker 3: to maximum risk off to now a few names look attractive,
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  Speaker 3: but I would not be going into the market and
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  Speaker 3: buying the index. And this juncture if this continues, so
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  Speaker 3: you start with energy shock, interest rate shock, broder inflation shock,
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  Speaker 3: demand shock. Then if this continues, which I hope it won't,
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  Speaker 3: we're going to be talking about financial stability. So that's
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  Speaker 3: the sequence. Hopefully we don't we don't go all the
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  Speaker 3: way down, but that's the sequence that's been triggered.
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  Speaker 2: What are you talking about?
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  Speaker 4: There?
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  Speaker 1: Is really like a rolling blackout around the markets in general.
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  Speaker 1: It isn't necessarily showing up in some of the data,
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  Speaker 1: but it is starting to peek through in other parts
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  Speaker 1: of it. And what I mean by that consumer confidence
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  Speaker 1: came in higher than expected right now at ninety one
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  Speaker 1: point eight versus eighty seven point eight. That was surprising
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  Speaker 1: to me because I feel like consumer confidence. Let me
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  Speaker 1: know what you guys think. Are you confident right now
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  Speaker 1: in the way the market is drop some comments down
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  Speaker 1: below the Jolts job openings came in at six point
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  Speaker 1: eight million versus seven point twenty four last month, so
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  Speaker 1: that means less jobs available. That's a clear decline in
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  Speaker 1: a demand for workers. That's the concern I have is
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  Speaker 1: when you have jobs and you have inflation brewing, you
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  Speaker 1: have a dual hit on the mandate that the FED
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  Speaker 1: tries to put out, and that is a concern because
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  Speaker 1: it will start to get into the interest rate side
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  Speaker 1: of things. Here's the FED talking about their outlook around
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  Speaker 1: the energy crisis.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 5: Look what I keep hear from FED officials is this
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  Speaker 5: idea of kind of scenario analysis, which may be a
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  Speaker 5: fancy way of saying we don't really know what to think,
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  Speaker 5: but another way of saying, we're looking at different options.
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  Speaker 5: And most of this particular option or outlook that Williams
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  Speaker 5: gave us was this idea that he expects the energy
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  Speaker 5: price to work through the system and not to have
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  Speaker 5: a long run effect if and when hostilities cease, based
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  Speaker 5: on the idea that policy takes a long time to
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  Speaker 5: get the economy, but the energy price shocks can be short,
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  Speaker 5: so you may end up adjusting something it doesn't ultimately
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  Speaker 5: need adjusting.
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  Speaker 1: That's an interesting take for them not to see this
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  Speaker 1: in a long and I would agree with that. If
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  Speaker 1: this ends, energy shock may slow. The real question I
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  Speaker 1: think is going to be some of these carry on
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  Speaker 1: industries that are being affected right now, from food to
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  Speaker 1: what we're seeing around gas supply, etc. Some of that
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  Speaker 1: may play into the benefit of the United States, but
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  Speaker 1: I think still this is going to have effect a
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  Speaker 1: long term on the economy. Now, David Rosenberg talked a
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  Speaker 1: little bit more about this of whether or not the
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  Speaker 1: FED hike would raise session risk parameters.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look, you'd have.
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  Speaker 6: To tell me what is the appropriate FED fund rate
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  Speaker 6: to deal with a supply shock this big.
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  Speaker 7: It'd be huge.
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  Speaker 6: So the last thing we need to do is layer
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  Speaker 6: an interest rate shock on top of the war shock
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  Speaker 6: and all the other shocks the economies is still facing.
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  Speaker 6: You know, we're not quite at the level we were
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  Speaker 6: in twenty twenty two, but the speed of the increase
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  Speaker 6: is a lot more acute. So this inflation shock food
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  Speaker 6: and fuels in particular, which are things that people can't
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  Speaker 6: substitute away from that is going to hit the wall
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  Speaker 6: in the labor market. And what we're going to end
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  Speaker 6: up with, and you're going to see this in real
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  Speaker 6: time within the next few months is a contraction in
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  Speaker 6: real incomes and then a contraction in real consumer spending.
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  Speaker 7: Okay, why rates rates when the demand destruction and the
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  Speaker 7: other parts of the economy are actually they're actually going
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  Speaker 7: to be going to be deflationary, all.
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  Speaker 2: Right, So he might be on something here.
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  Speaker 1: Why raise rates if we're moving into this direction? And
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  Speaker 1: if he is right around the demand destruction and also
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  Speaker 1: what we would be looking at, which is kind of
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  Speaker 1: the effects of these markets hitting jobs, consumer demand, those
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  Speaker 1: kind of things all centered around energy. I guess the
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  Speaker 1: real question is how long is this sustained energy going
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  Speaker 1: to hold? If you look back at the crude comparison
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  Speaker 1: with crude oil West Texas, and I'm going back to
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, that was kind of when we had
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  Speaker 1: the last shock like this, that was from the end
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  Speaker 1: of November to that high right there wasn't to the peak,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: but right there to that quick high on the shock,
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  Speaker 1: which was February, so it was about a three month run.
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  Speaker 1: We're almost in that same range right here end of
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  Speaker 1: December to where we hear on end of March. Also,
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  Speaker 1: now granted it's not the what was that almost one
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  Speaker 1: hundred and fifteen dollars a barrel at that time. But
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  Speaker 1: the point is that the acceleration, to his point is there,
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  Speaker 1: and that does create a longer hit on economic conditions
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  Speaker 1: when you have something that accelerates so quickly, because the
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: market doesn't have time to react to it. But of
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: course we would see sentiment change. Obviously if we see
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  Speaker 1: the US step out of this, that most likely will
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: have some effect.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it would be a long term effect.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I still feel that there's going to be some macro
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  Speaker 1: residual that's going to really roll into this. And things
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: that you have to consider is when there are slow
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: markets moving like that, gold usually is one of the
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: bigger hits. Here, of course, is a good example of that.
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  Speaker 1: First time in thirty years, central banks now holding more
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: gold than US treasuries. And if you understand that, you
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: understand what we're talking about here. Does this mean though,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: that we continue to see maybe a rotation out of gold.
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  Speaker 1: That's a possibility pending on the sentiment that could play
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  Speaker 1: if Trump gets an exit channel out of this war.
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  Speaker 2: All of that again gets into the longer effect on
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  Speaker 2: the market, because.
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  Speaker 1: This is a concern I have when people see these
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  Speaker 1: markets immediately take a spin up? Are they ready for
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  Speaker 1: what we could still see in these lagging macro effects
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: in the market. Overall, so very unusual. And listen, they're
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: still trying to pay for this thing. GOP is now
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: aieing ACA subsidies to try to pay for this.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: This would be I think terrible. This is bad for Americans.
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  Speaker 1: But more importantly, they're getting into other areas of programs
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  Speaker 1: right now to try to deal with this. Here's a
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: clip that kind of breaks that down.
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: We have a war on a nuclear rn that could
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: be paid for by the president's war on fraud. And
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: as you said, there's a boatload of fraud across the
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: federal government. We just address Medicaid and SNAP, but there
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: are seventy plus means tested welfare programs across this entire
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: people's government and about one and a half trillion dollar
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: cost the GAO reports. This just makes too much sense, Larry,
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  Speaker 4: I agree with you one hundred percent.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not necessarily agreeing with that, but we are in
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  Speaker 1: a pinch because this does cost a ton to be
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: able to sustain this long term. Granted, if it stops now,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: you get out of that immediately. Hopefully that corrects some
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: of the economy, but definitely not I think enough to
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: really deal with these expenditures that are are going to
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: be very difficult to replace immediately. Where this does have
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: an effect I think is on Trump's administration. The midterm
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: elections now is starting to sway into the Democrats taking
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: both the House and the Senate, so this would be
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: significant for a lame duck presidency that of course, Trump
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: would be susceptible to. If this holds through midterms later
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: this fall, this is where it gets very interesting because
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: that's where it starts to affect how legislation can be done.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: This could play into a lot of different industries. This
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: is going to be a little bit of your problem,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: I think, coming a little bit later in the year,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: So stay tuned. We're going to cover more. If you
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: like this video, like and subscribe, drop a comment down below,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: and also join our free private member group.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description.