Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Bored By the Board | MLB | 7/24/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Bored By the Board | MLB | 7/24/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase the black coffee on the felt. Man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name steal means something on somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me? No, hold on, hold.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: On nothing nice.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on me, but it don't get
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody? It's Toad back
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: with you with Toad Steel Sports for Friday, July twenty fourth.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: We went one and oh on the show yesterday with
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: a small board three and oh run over the last
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: two days, so I'm happy about that. Obviously, ariana new
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: hot streak. I mean, I don't want to say that,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: but hopefully we're turning things around here. I mean, I
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: don't like the board today, just so you know, but
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Toronto did get the win yesterday. I was correct about
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta game as well, which I almost wanted to
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: add that Atlanta team to old to my card. That
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: was good. The over in that game was good as well.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Chris Sale not really one of his better starts there,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta won but did not cover any sort of
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: run line there. But yes, Toronto had the win. They
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: were up to one at the end of five. Their
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: bullpen held as well, and they won the game three
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: to one, so if you played full game, it was
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: also a win, you know. I mean, obviously the day
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: was as good as it could have been, except that
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I left that other game off my card. But whatever,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to splash the board. You know,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give about two plays today. I got one
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: side one total in the MLB. I don't love this board.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Though it's a Friday. There were a lot of new
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: series starting, a lot of teams were turning off from
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: road trips, so some situations come up, but I don't
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: love them. A lot of them just don't line up
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: with like the matchups and whatever, because I try to
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: take everything into account and well let's get into it.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we're turning everything around here. Yeah, I mean, first
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: game up is a kind of odd start time, Colorado
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: at Milwaukee at four to ten pm Eastern, so there's
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: like a late afternoon game here. A lot of times
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: there's a Wrigley afternoon game, but I don't know why
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: there's a Milwaukee one, but whatever. These teams were both
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: off yesterday. I'll talk about the rest edges that some
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: teams have when I get to them. It's so few
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: teams played yesterday. They're only a few teams with rest edges.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is staying at home. They did just win a
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: series against the Mets last time they played. Colorado is traveling.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Of course, they're coming in from home, so and they
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: just lost to Washington. Colorado is starting a road trip,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: which is generally a focused spot. But Milwaukee's the better
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: team here. Milwaukee has the better starting pitcher on the
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: mound here. The problem is you have to lay a
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: huge price with Milwaukee. Obviously, Colorado will get no respect
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: in the market. I don't know why I'm looking at
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, because they're obviously rested here. Milwaukee has the
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: significantly better bullpen, the ranked eighth. There definitely a good bullpen.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Colorado is not their twenty fifth, Milwaukee ninth in offense,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Colorado fifth. So Colorado has been the better offense out
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: of the two. I'm not really sure that they really
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: are though, and they're I don't think they're gonna overall
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: be as good on the road, because of course course
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: field will jack up your offensive numbers. Though that wasn't happen,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: and I mean in a good way to like juice them.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: That wasn't really happening earlier in the season, but I
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: think it is now. Colorado is going to be going
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: with Tomo Yuki Sugano here on the mound. He's been
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: alright four point seven to sixty the RA one point
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: two to nine whip again. He's better than people thought
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: that he would be, and he's actually been decent in
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: course field, but he's actually been worse on the road
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: five point three to two road to RA, which is
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: kind of odd. He's been alternating good and bad starts recently,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: and if that continues, this one would not be a
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: good one. He pitched well last time out against Cincinnati.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I think he's a little bit hard to predict man.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: He's got a hit rate that's a little bit too highest,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: walk rate is not bad, though he's kept the free
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: passes down. His strike out rate is very low. He
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: gets a lot of guys to just hit into contact.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: That's how he gets guys out. He will not come
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: out there and blow you away. Milwaukee does not have
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: much experience against him. Only have four excuse me, five
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: guys who have faced him thirteen at bats, no extra
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: base hits, no strikeouts, no walks, one fifty four or
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: average three h eight ops. So in a small sample size,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: he's done well against Milwaukee and they haven't seen him
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: probably since last I think they only saw him once
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: last year. I want to say, I don't think he's
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: pitched against him this year, so that would have been
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: when he was on Baltimore, I guess, because that was
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: the only other team he's on that he's been on.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: That's the only other year that he's been in Major
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: League Baseball. I'm pretty sure, because he spent his entire
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: career in Japan up until last year. But whatever, I
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: don't know what to expect out of him, but just generally,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: he's not as good as Shane Drohan, who was pitching
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. Here. He's having a good three point two
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: ERA one point one to eight whip He's basically the same.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Home and away splits are not significant. He's been pitching
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: pretty well recently. Really throughout the course of the season.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed more than three in runs in one
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: start I think, on the season, so that's pretty good.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: And he hasn't allowed more than four at all. He's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: got a pretty low hit rate here. His walk rate
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: is pretty low as well. Strikeout rate is right at
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: one per inning. Those are all pretty good numbers there
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: going up against Colorado. They have faced him. He just
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: pitched in course Field, actually, and he did pretty well.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: They have twenty at bats against some two fifty average
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: six eighty six ops, four to one strikeout walk ratios.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Those are good numbers. He went into course Field in
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: early June and he held them to three runs in
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: six and a third innings, four strikeouts, one walk, five hits.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Not bad. But what I will say is that he
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: might have had that unfamiliarity edge that I talked about.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: We're goen a pitcher has never been seen before by
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: the opposing offense. A lot of time the pitcher, if
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: they're good, they have the edge because the offense has
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: to figure them out on the fly. So now that
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: they've seen him once, maybe they'll hit them a little
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: bit better. I would still say that Drohan probably is
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: gonna outpitch Sugano here, but the price that you're having
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: to lay for Milwaukee is insane and I would not
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: do that. You're having to lay at least minus two fifty.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I think on this, well, what's the price? Let me
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: see where is this? Yeah, around minus two fifty, maybe
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower than that. Ninety two percent of
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on the Brewers,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: So the money is indicating against the Brewers here. A
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: lot of it just has to do with the price.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, when you get a price range that high,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see professional money basically just fading that favorite
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: on principal, you know what I mean, Like just almost
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: no team should be favored like this in Major League Baseball.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: And the money's back in the over eight and a
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: half as well. I just I don't have a good
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: read on this game at all. I think Milwaukee should win.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, if anything, the under might make some sense
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: in this game, maybe the early under, because of course,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: as I said, coloradis bullpen is a disaster, So I
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: think first five under there is actually an argument for that.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Both starting pitchers could actually perform well here, would I
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: want to have money on it?
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: And no?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's what I have to say about that game. Shit,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's up man. Thanks for checking out
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: the show. All right, next game up is going to
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: be one of my plays, and I'm going against the
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: market read here, but we got a situation and I
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: think the better of the pitching matchup here in Cubs Pittsburgh.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: And it might not be what you think, because if
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: you watch me, you know that I like Jared Jones
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: and I'm actually gonna fade him in this one, even
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: though he started pitching better. We're gonna take the Cubs
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: on the money line here at plus one oh five.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I like the spot for the Cubs better the Cubs are,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: and I like to starting pitching actually better as well.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not, Even generally I might not agree
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: with that, but in this specific matchup, I do. The
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Cubs are coming off a losing series to Detroit. Day
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: off yesterday, both teams said the day off yesterday. The
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Cubs are starting a road trip, and you know, I
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: like that. I think it's a positive when a team
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: is starting a road trip, especially if they're coming off
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: an ugly series at home. One of the best things
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: you could do is just leave go out on the
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: road then, especially if you're in a big media market
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: like Chicago, you don't want to be listening to the
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: media at home. What's wrong with the Cubs, Why did
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: they lose to Detroit? Whatever? And then of course, the
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: only game they won was the game where I thought
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: they were gonna lose, and we had a loser on
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the show from Bravaldez against David Peterson. You're telling me
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: David Peterson is the one winning pitcher in that series. Really, whatever,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: But yes, the media is probably questioning the Cubs right now.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So one of the best things for them is just whatever,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: fuck it, go out on the road and refocus, and
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: they might be more focused on this because it is
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: a divisional series and Pittsburgh is not that far high
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: in them now. Pittsburgh's not gonna overlook the Cubs, really,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: but they are still in a bad spot here, dude.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: They're returning home from a road trip. They went to
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and to the Bronx to play the Yankees. They
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: lost the loss of the series to the Yankees. They
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: won the series against Cleveland. Now it's still a return
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: home spot. I know it's the Cubs. Pittsburgh shouldn't completely
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: overlook the Cubs. But I like fading teams when they
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: return home from road trips, generally because they got to
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: get back to home life. It can be a distraction,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: even if you are facing a team that you do
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: want to pay attention to and coming up a big
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: series against the Yankees, close game in the final game,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: they could have had to win a series win against
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, which would have been pretty big. So yeah,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot for Pittsburgh. I think
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: they're also kind of an uncharted territory here at this point.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: You know, second half of the season, winning record, and
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: they're kind of in the playoff hunt here. This Pittsburgh
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: team is not a team that's used to that, right,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: and the Cubs definitely are. So we're gonna be starting
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: to get maybe some experience edge going on here at
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: some point. Now. I do think the Cubs have the
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, even though they've been struggling recently. They're at sixteenth,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: their E ray has gone up above four. But I
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: don't think they're that bad of a bullpen. I'm gonna
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: leave them in this equation since everybody's rested. Whatever in
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's bullpen is not very good. Other twenty third, So
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I do think we have an edge of the Cubs
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen here. Cubs fourth in offense, Pittsburgh third. Both offense
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good. Pittsburgh is good at home, so that
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: is one thing to consider that they do hit well
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: at home. But I think the Cubs can get this
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: given this situation. In this pitching matchup, We're gonna back
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd, and I think I've only backed him once
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: this year, maybe twice, but I know the most recent
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: time I did, we did get a win and he
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: pitched well. Boyd, he's been thrown off by injuries this year.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: He hasn't really pitched that much. Four point one five
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: year Ray doesn't really look that good. One point two
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: to one whip is not really that bad though, and
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: he's been good for the last two plus seasons at
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: this point. I don't know how he turned his career
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: around when he was like thirty three, but that has
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: basically been the case. He's been better on the road,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: at least ERA wise this year three point eighty six,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: so though his opponent batting average is a little bit worse,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: but he's also been good recently. He's been good in
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: really like four starts in a row, which is not
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: a bad thing. Obviously, he's been he's been good for
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a while now. It looks like he's in good form
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: right now for the most part. He's got a pretty
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: low hit rate here, is walk rates low as well,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: strike got rased is pretty decent as well. So his
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: numbers across the board still look like he's pitching well,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: which I think is a good sign. And then against
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh he has been good. As you could have figured
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: out based on the way that I'm talking about this.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: They have thirty seven at bats against him, a two
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: forty three average, six H six oh ps nine to
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk RACEO. So a boyd has had
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the upper hand against the Pirates here, and we're gonna
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: fade Jared Jones. Even though I like Jones, he's young.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I think he has more upside here, uh than the
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: old boyd does. But Jones has really had some problems
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs. Man he is pitching better, which I
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: expected that would be the case. He's got a four
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: point zero five ERA one point one whip. Jones was
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: good two years ago for Pittsburgh, and then he missed
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: all of last year with an injury, struggled a bit
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: to get going this year, but he has done that.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So I am fading a guy who's in good form currently,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: but there are some things that maybe we don't like here.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: He has a four point seven to four home he ra,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: which is not really that good, although again, his opponent
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: batting average has been pretty low. Like I said, he's
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: been good for a couple starts in a row now.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: The last one is against Cleveland, though I mean the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Cubs are a different animal. The previous start was against Atlanta,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: and yeah, Atlanta can hit, but that was during a
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: rough stretch for Atlanta's offense, so Jones might have to
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: step it up a little bit more to face this
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Cub offense. Here. He does have good numbers in general,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: the low hit rate, his walk rates not too bad,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: strike out rate is high, but I'm looking at the
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: matchup and the situation against the Cubs. He's really gotten
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: hammered in the past, and I don't mean drunk. Fifty
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: six at bats three or four average, nine eighty two
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: ops against. That is not good. That's the Cubs have
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the upper hand against them. Twelve to three strike out
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, that's good, but the rest of these numbers
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: not good. So yeah, given the situation and the starting pitching,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: we'll take the Cubs here on the money line. The
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: money doesn't agree. Cubs fifty six percent of the tickets,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash on Pittsburgh. I mean, that
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: was my kind of one concern with this is that
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: it looks almost too easy to play the Cubs on
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: the on the money line here as an underdog because
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: they have the better records. So the public may wind
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: up siding with the Cubs, but I thought it was
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: going to be public and professional money all siding with
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: the Cubs in this one. We'll see what happens, but
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I'm going with the way that I handicap situation plus
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup. Again, I don't love the board today, but
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: the market doesn't agree with me on this one. It
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: does agree with my total that I'm gonna give out
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: in a little while, which that actually be the next
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: game I talk about. But yeah, the Pirates are small
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: favor here, a minus one twenty or so. And I
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: do say that when you see the lesser team as
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: a favorite, the odds makers are telling you something. So
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of times I will look towards that team,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: but in this case, I'm not going to do it.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we don't mess this up. Hopefully the Cubs do
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: get the win there. That's probably my les. That's the
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: lesser of the two plays out of my two I
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: would say. But you know, I mean, I think it's
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: good enough to add to the card here. Like that
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: was one of the ones that I had my eye on.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: That was my show. I'll give you the other plays
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: that I had kind of on my short list today
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: that I almost made plays. And of course, you know,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: the ones that I leave off are gonna win inevitably,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: and the ones I put on or not. You know,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: it's just the way that it is. Action Network, by
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the way, does actually show a market read indicating towards
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. So there's a big disparity there between what
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: they've shown what wager Talk is showing on their odds
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: logic and integrated screen there. But again we might see
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the logic numbers here flip by the time the game starts.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is always possible, all right, Kansas City Detroit.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: This is not gonna be the game that I have.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: The next game after this is the other game that
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: I have Casey Detroit. I mean, right away, you notice
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: this is a huge pitching mismatch. I mean, this is
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: an elite pitcher for Detroit, Scooball going up against a
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Kansas City bullpen game. Yeah, obviously, if Detroit loses this game,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: there's probably something wrong going on with Detroit. But do
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I want to pay for Detroit at the price that
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: they're at, No, No, I do not. They're the biggest
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: favorite that we've seen since I think Dodgers hosting the Rockies.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Probably Detroit is on a win streak here. They won
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: a couple of games in a row. This series started yesterday.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Detroit won the game four to three yesterday, so you
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: might get a little bit extra motivation for Kansas City maybe,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: although they're not the better team obviously, they use three
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is really bad Kansas City.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: I mean Detroit used five, but they used a couple
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: of guys for only a couple pitches each. Finnegan his
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: pitch two days in a row, though. I think he's
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: one of the guys they might use as a closer.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the rest edge isn't really that great for Detroit,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: but they still have the better bullpen the rank nineteenth.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is dead last. They have the second worst
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: era as well. I'm arranging this by whip so you
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: could debate whether they're the second worst or the worst bullpen.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Either way, it's not good. Detroit offensively is nineteenth, Kansas
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: City eighteenth, So these are both mediocre offenses. Pretty much.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Kansas City's going with a bullpen game, though they have
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: beck Way listed as the starter. I don't even know
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: if he's actually gonna wind up being their starter here.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: He's not really a starter, he's an opener. He's a
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: bullpen arm. So if you're gonna play this game, I
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: would probably play play it as Scooba must start, but
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: don't pick a Kansas City starter. But keep an eye
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: out on it, I guess, because I guess theoretically, Kansas
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: City could decide to switch pitchers. I think it's Noah
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Cameron's turn of the rotation. But Kansas City hasn't had
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: any days off, so I think they pushed Noah Cameron
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: back one day because everybody's a wo snaw man, so oh,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: he can't pitch on four days rest. We need to
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: have at least five days rest for him. So it's
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bullpen game as it stands right now
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: for the Royals, which is not good because their bullpen
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: is trash and they have to go up against Tark
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: school Ball, who is obviously an ace pitcher or a
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: two point eight three ra point nine to three whip.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: You know, there are these trade rumors circling, like is
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Detroit gonna pack it in? Like are they gonna sell
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: at the trade deadline? I mean, I don't think they're
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: going to. I mean, they could still win their division
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: right now, so why would they do that? You know
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: what I mean? I mean the only reason they would
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: is if they want to unload Schooble's contract. Schooble, he's
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: had some injury issues this year. Is the r at
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: home is a little bit worse three point nine to three,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: but his opponent a batting average is still good. I mean,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: that doesn't concern me a whole lot. And he's been
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: back and form for a while now. He's strung together
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: four good starts in a row along two or fewer
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: and runs in all of them. He wasn't even really
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: that bad, and the starts prior to that either, So yeah,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I mean he was never really bad. He's got a
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: low hit rate, really low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: His ground ball rate is good too, so his numbers
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: are just all good across the board. He's pretty good
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City, although maybe not as dominant as maybe
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: you'd think, because they do have some home runs off him,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: but all the damage is salvad Or Perez, which is crazy.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Salvad Or Perez is like really old, now, isn't Heah,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: he's thirty six, He's he's been the one guy that
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: just crushes Schooble though, So I guess if you want
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: player props hits plus runs plus RBIs Perez is eleven
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: for thirty nine with four home runs against Schoolble, but
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: also twelve strikeouts and no walk so there's no in between.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: He has four of the five home runs Kansas City
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: has against him, so if you take him out, then yeah,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Schoolble dominates the rest of their own. They have eighty
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: seven at bats against them, thirty nine of them are Salvador.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Like I said, twenty seven strikeouts, four walks, two thirty
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: average seven to twelve ops. That ops is high just
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: because of those home runs from Perez, but all overall,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: those numbers are good for school ball, but you can't
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: pay a price like this for this minus three hundred
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: or more than that on Detroit. No, you can't pay
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: a price like that for any team in Major League Baseball.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Ninety three percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit looks like they're getting some public action here. The
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: total is low at seven and a half, which really
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: seems too low to me. I mean, I understand you
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: have one of the best pitchers in baseball on one side,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: but on the other side you have absolute trash. Sorry,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: is there any other way to put it?
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: So?
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I thought this total probably should have been
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: like maybe eight, maybe even that's generous, and maybe you
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: could look towards an over here. I don't think i'd
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: want to do that either, though, I mean, the money
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in towards the under. So I
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: don't like this game at all. But if the total
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: is that low, then there's even less value playing a
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: favorite like this, right because there's gonna be less leeway
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: there for them to win that game. And if you're
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: trying to lay like a Detroit one line and they
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: might not score that many runs here, I don't like
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: any of that. I mean, I think if the indicators
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: are it's gonna be a low scoring game, and you
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: think Detroit's gonna win, maybe the way to play this
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: is to take the Royals under their team total. But
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: if you do that, you're really really up against it
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: because you're gonna need to score like two or few
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: or I think I said. I said that about the
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Royals yesterday too, I think, and they scored three. So
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I think if you played that one, it would have
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: been a two and a half or whatever and you
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: would have lost. So yeah, there's really not a whole
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: lot of room for error if you do something like that, which, yeah,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: like I said yesterday, if I was a team totals guy,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: I would definitely prefer taking certain team totals over rather
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: than trying to take them under with like very little
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: room for error. I got really nothing on that game,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and I think Detroit should win the game. I mean,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: if you want to do like a money line parlay
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: type of thing to somehow knock that price down and
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: find another favorite that you like, but there's only baseball
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: available right now, so we won't find another favorite that's
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: that high, and I don't I would definitely not parlay
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: more than two things in one parlay even that I
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: don't like because they're totally uncorrelated and you know, the
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: books screw you. So whatever, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: for hanging out all right. Next game is going to
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: be my last play of the day. I want to
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: go to and oh here, man, we'll see. This is
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be a total. We're gonna take Diamondbacks Nationals over
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. I think nine and a half
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: is pretty much at every book here. I found it
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit reduced juice because a couple of books
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: off for that. And by the way, for the Cubs,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I found them as an underdog, so you know that
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: because is the favorite. So I think these book these
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: lines are pretty abundant out there. But yes, I like
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the over in this one. Arizona's an arrest disadvantage, so
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: that is something to keep in mind. Washington is returning
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip. They went to the A's
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: and then to Colorado, so they were in the This
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: is one thing I don't love about this over that Washington. Obviously,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: their numbers are juiced a bit because of those stadiums,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: you know, playing in the A's scoring in the A Stadium,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: scoring twenty three runs. But they really didn't put up
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: high wind high run totals after that. Really they put
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: up one, five, seven, seven, and eight. I mean those
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: are yeah, those are still fairly high, but they're not
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: like absurd like twenty three in the first game that
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: road trip. So yes, even though their offensive numbers are
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: probably juiced because of those stadiums they were in, I
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: still think they're gonna be able to score some runs
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: here in this game. Washington definitely an offensive team here.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Arizona has not been. But Arizona might be coming around
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I mean, their offense was really good
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: in that last series against It was good against the A's,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: and then it was good yesterday. So the d Backs
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a new series. They played Saint
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Louis yesterday. That was a makeup game for earlier in
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: the season, I guess, so they had to just play
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: it on a day that both teams are going to
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: be off. So that's what that was yesterday. So the
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: d Backs are in kind of a weird spot here
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: where they were supposed to be off yesterday they weren't.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: They had to take a trip to play one game
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: in Saint Louis, although it kind of makes sense because
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: you stop over in Saint Louis on you're on your
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: way from Arizona to Washington, you know what I mean.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: So that's not too bad. But they're at a rest
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: disadvantage here. However, they still have the better bullpen. But
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: that all being said, I like the over here still,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: even though I don't necessarily love playing overs on teams
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: like Washington that are returning home from a road trip.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: And you know, I always say return home spots are
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: negative because it could be a distraction. You got to
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: get back to home life, so the offense could be
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit distracted. Here. I still think it's gonna
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: be enough to get us over the total. Though, yes,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: the spot is negative for both teams because you got
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Washington in the return home spot across multiple time zones,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: which is gonna probably affect them a little bit. Arizona
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: coming in with no days off here after yesterday, so
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: both teams have a disadvantage there. So I don't think
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: there's really a situational edge for one team or the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: other because they both have a disadvantage. Arizona did have
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: to use some of their relief pitchers. Yesterday they used three.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: They're still the better bullpen here though they're ranked sixth,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: even though I don't think they're that good. Washington is
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: definitely worse. They're twenty six. They have one of the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: bullpenning our race that's over five right now. I think
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: four teams qualify for that right now. Washington's been very
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: good offensively. They're number two right now, though again they
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: got their numbers got juiced up a little bit on
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: that road trip. But they've been a good offense all
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: year anyway. Though, even if their numbers take a little
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: bit of a dip at home, they still hit well
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: at home, and they play a lot of overs at
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: home still because they're pitching sucks at home, and that's
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: obviously gonna be one of the part to this handicap here.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: D Backs haven't been hitting, but they actually have. Like
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I said, they started hitting a little bit better recently,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: and that was at home, so it wasn't really like
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: a stadium dependent thing. They were able to just start
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: putting up a bunch of runs recently at home. The
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: good thing is these offenses are both in good form
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: right now, right like they're both putting up a good
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: amount of runs, so that's at least a good thing.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Arizona's now twenty at an offense tied with the Reds
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: could be worse, I guess, but we're looking at the
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: starting pitching here. Eduardo Rodriguez his pitching for the d Backs,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: and I know he's had a good season two point
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: six to two ERA one point two to whip, but
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: he is not what he once was. He's multiple surgeries
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: into his career. He's been a little bit worse on
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: the road here two point eighty five Roady Ray. I
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: understand that's still not bad, but the advanced analytics guys
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: have been waiting for him to fall off because his
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate is just way down not good, although his
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: hit rate is pretty low. His walk rate is not
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: too bad. But just because he pitches to contact, he
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: gives up a lot of fly balls and whatever advanced
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: analytics guys has just some waiting for regression here. Maybe
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: it's starting to happen because his last outing it was
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: not good. He only went two and two thirds against
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, and maybe he was thrown off by the
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: fact that he pitched in the All Star Game. The
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: outing prior to that, but he's a veteran. I think
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: he's been on the All Star team before, so I
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: didn't think that would affect him that much. Maybe it did,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: or maybe he's just kind of out of form right now.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know whichever way. I'm looking at him to
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: maybe not pitch as well in this environment though, against
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: a really good offense, and it's an offense that's been
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: able to have some success against him. In thirty nine
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: at bats only a two thirty one average is not
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: very good. Ten to two strike at walk ration is
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: not very good for Washington's offense, but they do have
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: a seven to fifty five ops off ense, so they
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: do have some extra base hits in here, so they've
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: been able to have maybe a slight upper hand over
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: e Rod and I don't think he's as good as
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: his numbers look. Meanwhile, Washington has Carson Pomquis listed as
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: a starting pitcher. He's been he's gonna be an opener,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: and he has not been good anyway. His numbers are
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: not good. But if you look at five games back,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: what Washington did is they use an opener in front
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: of Zach Lateel. So I'm pretty sure that's what they're
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: doing here. And that was the game they lost fifteen
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: to one against the A's, and I think that might
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: have been the only win the A's had in the
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: last like two weeks probably or even more than that,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: or maybe one of two wins they had. That's not
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: a good sign if this was the same pitching set
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: up Washington had in that game against the A's, where
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: the A's, who have been playing like one of the
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: worst teams in baseball, got one of their only wins
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: that it was a fifteen to one win. That was
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Zach Lettel actually starting that one, and Pomquist came in
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: in relief in that one. But I believe we're gonna
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: get Zach Lttel in this game. I think we're gonna
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: get him behind Pomquist. What I'm gonna recommend here is
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: when you play this game, you should pick e Rod. Actually,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: you know what, just play at action because if Arizona
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: replaces e Rod with somebody else, it can only be
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: even worse than Erods. So I would just play action
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: on this. And it's mostly because you don't know who's
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: actually starting for Washington here. I think it's pretty much
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: guaranteed Zach Lttel is going to pitch in this game.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: It's just a matter of whether they put an opener
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: in front of him or not. And I think we
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: want to fade Lattel. I mean, he sucks five point
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: three four ERA one point three to five whip. That's
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: not good. He's basically the same home and away, but
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: he is a little bit worse at home. He got
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: tagged for eight runs last time out of it was
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: at the A's stadium, so maybe you could give him
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: a pass for that. But he had four walks in
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: that one. I mean, that's not he usually doesn't walk
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: guys either. He's usually just way too hittable. But he's
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: in bad anyway. I mean, Washington has lost six of
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: his last seven starts. Even if he had like one
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: good start in there against Pittsburgh, maybe one decent one
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: there against Baltimore, the rest of these starts were not good.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: He's given up more hits than in his pitch, which
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: is not good. He's been tagged for a ton of
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: home runs. He's probably allowed the most home runs in baseball,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: or at least he's there twenty five and ninety six innings. Yeah,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: that's not good. His walk rate is fine, his strike
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: out rate is very low. He doesn't strike anybody out,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: and obviously you know what's coming. He's not good against Arizona. Well,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: they have the upper hand against him. I should say
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: two fifty eight average, seven to fifty five ops against
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: him in sixty two at bats, eleven to four strike
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. To me, I think both offenses when
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: they're in good form. Right now, you're going up against
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: an unrested bullpen with Arizona. Washington has a bad bullpen.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think the starting pitching situation is very good
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: really for either team. The total is pretty high for
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: a reason. At nine and a half. The money's backing
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: the over as well, so I think this is an over.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Fifty percent of the tickets and ninety percent of the
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: cash on the over. That's what we're gonna do. Those
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: are my two plays of the day. I mean, hopefully
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I'm selecting the right ones here. Man, trying to be
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: selective because I struggled with this board, like I struggled
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: to find plays that I actually thought were good enough.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: So this is a weaker board for me. Man. I
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: could have passed on the day entirely but I was like,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: you know, it feels like I lowered my threshold a
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: little bit just because there's nothing else going on today
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: except baseball. So you know, at least if we go
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: one to one here, at least it's not the end
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: of the world and whatever. So you know, I would
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I'd be okay with that, even though even though the
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: goal is to win. All right, we have a Yankees
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: and Philadelphia on Apple TV. Both teams were off yesterday.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is staying at home. They did just lose to
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. The last game wasn't really that close against
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. It was Aaron Nola pitching for Philadelphia. And
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: if you know what I said about Philadelphia last time
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: out is generally if Philadelphia has Wheeler Sanchez or Lozardo
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: pitching they have they win. Basically, they have a really
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: good record, and if anybody else pitches for them, they lose.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: That's basically what Philly has going on. And they do
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: have Lozardo pitching here. However, I still don't know if
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: I love Philadelphia here. And when I looked at this
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: at first, ESPN said it was gonna be Schlittler against Lozardo,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: and yet Philadelphia was a favorite. So I'm like, wait, Like,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: if Schlitzler was pitching, I really don't think Philadelphia would
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: be minus one thirty. So I was like, there's something
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: going on here because I was ready to be like, yeah,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: we're gonna play the Yankees here, but then I looked
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: over here and I'm like, oh, yeah, that's why the
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: line is where it is, because it's not Schlittler pitching.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: It's going to be Will Warren. They skipped Warren in
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: his turn in the rotation to bring Max Freed back,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: but I guess they're leaving him in the rotation at
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: least for this start. So it is going to be
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Will Warren against Zach against He's zeus Lozardo, excuse me.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: So it's not Schlitzler. So keep that in mind. And
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the Yankees had yesterday off as well. They're coming in
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: from New York starting a road trip after beating Pittsburgh.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Not a bad spot for the Yankees. I mean, starting
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: a road trip is usually a focused spot. Bullpen wise,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Yankees have been good. They're number three, they have the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: second best ERA, very close behind the Red Sox. Against Philly,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Philly is not that good and they're twenty at them bullpen,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: they got a mid fours ZR, which is not particularly good.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Yankees also have the offensive edge. They're seventh right now,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: tied with Tampa Bay, Philadelphia twenty third, although Philadelphia, at
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: least for them, they are better at home hitting wise,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna be going up against Will Warren, like
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I said, which at least is better for Philadelphia than
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: having to go up against Schlitzler. Although Schlitler will pitch
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: in this series. I assume Schlittler is pitching tomorrow. Will
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Warren as a four era one point three to seven
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: whip mediocre stuff here. He's a little bit worse on
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the road four point two four road dr only went
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: two thirds of an inning last time against Pittsburgh. I
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: think he must he must have pitched him relief. Yeah,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: that was two days ago. So this is a weird
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: set up here.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: It's like, is he even gonna go full start or
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: is this a bullpen game now? For the Yankees, I
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: honestly don't know what they're doing here, because he bitched
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: two days ago, obviously in relief in that Pittsburgh series,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: because he was going to have a start at some
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: point and then Freed came back. That was that game.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: That was it was because it was a double header
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: day though two probably that was the game. That was
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: the game they won. That was the night game. Actually,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: that was the game he was originally gonna start. Now
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: he only went two thirds of an innings. I guess
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: theoretically they could have him go out there and still
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: go four or five innings here, I honestly don't know
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: what you're gonna get out of him. Although prior to
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: that out and he wasn't really pitching that well. He
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: had one decent start against Well, I don't know. He
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: had a bad start against Tampa Bay. He was decent
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: against Washington and pretty good against Detroit. He was bad
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox prior to that. Fielding let him
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: down against the Reds prior to that. I don't know.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: Warren's a little bit all over the place. His hit
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: rate's a bit too high, his walk rate is okay.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is actually okay as well, So he's
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: not really that bad. I just honestly, I have no
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: idea like how long he's gonna go in this game
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: against the Phillies. He's been very average against them. In
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: thirty one at bats, two fifty eight average, seven forty
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: eight oh ps, ten to five strike a walk ratio,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: So he doesn't really have an edge over Philly's offense.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: They don't really have an edge over him either. Jesus
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Lozardo is pitching for Philly here. He's generally been good,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: a three point four to three ERA, one point two
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: to one whip. However, he's had issues at home. His
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: home road splits are still extreme. He's got a six
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: point one to two homey RA. Yeah, that's bad. I
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: still don't know what's going on with him at home.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: It's been the home run ball that's really hurt him.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: Although his opponent batting average is also still bad at
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: home and it's walk right, I think he's higher at
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: home as well. He pitched in the All Star Game
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: a couple appearances ago and didn't seem to affect him
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: because he pitched well. He had a start after that
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: and did well at home against the Mets, so he
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: did pitch well in that one, and he pitched well
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: in his previous home start as well, which was on
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: June sixteenth against Miami, So his last two home starts
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: have actually been good. But generally he's struggled at home,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: But does that mean he's turning a corner and pitching
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: better at home? Maybe? I mean, he's been good for
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: a while now. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: in every start going all the way back into like
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: early June. Still most of them on the road though,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: But he's got a pretty low hit rate here. His
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: walk rate is fairly low, strike out rate is really high,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: ground ball rate is high as well, which is good.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: So yeah, his numbers across the board are still pretty
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: good here, but he's having to face the Yankees, and
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: the Yankees have hit him pretty well in forty two
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: at bats three thirty three average, one thousand and thirty
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: oh ps, twelve to two strikeout walk ratio. Given the
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Lozardo even though he's in good form right now, but
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: given that he has struggled at home, this is not
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: an ideal matchup from the Yankees are a much more
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: potent offense than the Mets. I mean, I think this
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: game maybe the way that I was gonna say, like,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: if this was really Schlitler and you were somehow getting
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: him as an underdog, I would say play the Yankees.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: But now I think what I'm gonna say, is the
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: over maybe, even though I don't you know, I don't
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: love overs when you have two rested teams right, because
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are fully available, the hitters could be a
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: little bit cooled off by having the day off, which
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: I know I am playing the over with Washington having
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: a day off and a return home spot, but whatever, Yeah,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I think the over is probably the best way to
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: play this. Uh oh, it is gonna be Schlitzler now,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Oh shit, Shitler? Is it really Schlitler? Now we go?
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: We gotta change this, man. I think I might add
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the Yankees here, hang on, because they are starting a
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: road to If you're getting the Yankees still as an underdog,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: like why wouldn't you do this? Like this is gonna
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: be a pitching mismatch. You're gonna get the bullpen advantage
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: with the Philly as well. Here Schlitler, let's what are
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: his numbers against Philly Schlitler? If it is him as
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: a two point two ERA point nine six whip, we
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: know he's good. He's been even better on the road
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: one point one to eight road e RRA wasn't great
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: in his last outing against the Dodgers, but to me,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: that looks like a little bit of a an outlier.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: To me, he did have one other bad start against Detroit.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Those both came at home. By the way, uh and Dodgers,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: they're an elite offense, man, I mean Philly is not.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: So I think he bounces back. I mean, he's been
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: very good this season. But remember when you have these
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: young pitchers like this getting into the second half of
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the season, you gotta worry about their innings count. He's
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: in one hundred and twenty three, so he's getting up there. Man.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think once they get around like maybe
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: one fifty, I think you really have to kind of
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: start worrying, like just if they haven't done that before,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: you know what. I mean, these young pitchers doing it.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: But I don't think you have to worry about him yet.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate. These numbers are all good, and against Philly,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: they've never seen him before, so he has that advantage
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: to you know what, Let's make this a play, but
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: specify the starting pitching here. Make sure that it's Schlitler
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: against Lozardo here, or I guess Schlitler against well, I
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: don't know, I mean, as long as it's not Wheeler
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: or I'm losing them. As long as it's a Wheeler
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: or Sanchez. Yeah, but I don't think it's going to
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: be because they both played too recently for that to
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: be the case. Yeah, the money looks like it is
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: kind of coming in on the Yanks. We're still getting
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the Yankees as a dog here plus one fifteen, it
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: still says Warren here on Action Network. But yeah, I
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: would wait. This line is going to drop on Philadelphia
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but hopefully you can still get the
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Yankees as an underdog. But as long as you get
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: the Yankees close to a Pickham price, I think this
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: is worth it. So let's add the Yankees as a
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: play here. I see them at plus one fifteen right now,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: but I don't know. Let me see if like DK
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: actually has Let me see, because I want to see
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: if they actually have Schlitler listed as the starter here
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: with the price like this, they do they actually do?
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: That's crazy, dude. Yeah, take the Yankees U plus one fifteen.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: You're not gonna get you, dude, When are you gonna
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: get Schlitler's I mean I say that the other time.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Remember we did actually play Schlitler as an underdog against
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay whenever. That was Although one thing about that
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: was Tampa Bay had a better record than the Yankees
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: at the time. I think they still do. Actually Philly obviously, well,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think Philly does, although Philly does have a
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: good record right now. Philly, by the way, well, so
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: that last time I played Schlitzler, we got him as
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: an underdog. I was like, I can't believe you're gonna
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: be Schlitler as an underdog. And it was also Tampa
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Bay was in a return home spot. We did get
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: the win on that game. It was a bad spot
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay the record also made them
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: look better than they actually are. But one thing that
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: I will say here, even though I don't, I don't
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: think Philly has a better record than the Yankees. Let
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: me see, Yankees, by the way, have been pretty good
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: on the road. Philly, Yeah, they're like one and a
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: half games behind the Yankees right now. Philly does not
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: have a great home record, by the way, Yankees are
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: better on the road than Philly is at home. But
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: the other thing that I'm going to say is, if
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: you look at the standings here I guarantee you the
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Yankees have a better run to here. The Yankees are
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: plus eighty eight run differential, so they have the highest
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: run differential in the American League. By the way, the
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are second, I believe it or not, So
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: that bad start for the Red Sox was pretty misleading. Really,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: they had a positive run differential that whole time. Phillies
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: their run differential is minus fifteen, so they're not better
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: than the Yankees. So you know, I don't really think
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: they should be favored here, even though it is Lozardo.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Out of their three best starters, Lozardo is clearly the
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: lesser of the three, right, Like he's not Sanchez, He's
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: not Wheeler is the best at this point, to be honest,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Like Sanchez has fallen apart. But Lozardo has been very
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: vulnerable at home. It seems like he tips his pitches sometimes. Whatever,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: I'm overanalyzing it. But yeah, fifty two percent tickets, fifty
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the Yankees. Money is
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: also coming in on the over. The over would have
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: been my lean if it was Warren against Lozardo. But yeah,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: fuck it, let's just play the Yankees. If it's Schlitzler. Yes, off,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Schlitler versus Lozardo here. I can't believe you're getting a
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Schlitzler as an underdog again here, man, honestly, So, yeah,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: let's do it. Schlitler is starting, yes, thank you, sir.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: FD has it as well. Yeah, DK has it as well. Yeah,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: plus one ten. It's plus one thirteen a DK right now.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: A couple of the books have it even better than
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: that at plus one fifteen. But I think any of
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: those prices is pretty good. You're gonna Schlitler at plus money, dude,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: so yeah, so that will be an addition to my
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: card here. So now we have three plays, all right.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: The show's taken way too long now because I had
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: to go through all that to figure that out. All right,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Atlanta and Baltimore. I'm gonna try to speed through this
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit because I don't know if I'm going
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: to be able to because I'm too autistic. Baltimore's returning
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip, so they might be in
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: a bad spot. They also beat the Red Sox in
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: the last game, so the Red Sox tied their franchise
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: record wind streak at fourteen or fifteen I think, and
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: then lost in the last game of the doubleheader, which
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Ryner Suarez. I don't know where he is. He didn't
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: come back for the Red Sox, and they use a
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Eduardo Rivera and he had a bad first inning, and
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: that was really the entire game. The Red Sox allowed
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: one run after the first inning in that game and
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: they lost five to one because of a horrible first ding.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Baltimore got the win. That was a big win for Baltimore.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: You know, you end that huge Red Sox hot streak,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: you beat a team that's ahead of you in the division.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: So they could be in a letdown here potentially. Plus
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the returning home, although staying on the East Coast for
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the last leg of it and they're playing at Lana here,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: so I know Atlanta's not really a team you're necessarily
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook. But I think it's a negative spot for Baltimore.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Though it's a return home, could be a distraction, still
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: possible let down if you're ending the Red Sox win streak.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has started playing well again. They've won four of
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: the last five games, They've won six of the last seven.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: They're playing well. They just beat San Diego three out
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: of four games, but they did play yesterday, so Atlanta
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: is in a rest disadvantage here. Baltimore rested yesterday. But again,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: it's just like I said with Washington, you have one
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: unrested team and one team returning home from a road trip.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: So it's like which team is in the worst spot.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know, because they're both bad spots. They're both negatives,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: and it's hard to kind of quantify which one is worse.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's the better team here and they are starting a
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: road trip, so it is probably a little bit of
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: a better spot for Atlanta. They have the better bullpen.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: They're number one still in bullpen with Baltimore nine. Baltimore,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's been better recently. I will say that I
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: think they're a decent bullpen. Atlanta's still better. Atlanta's sixth
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: in offense. They're better than the Oriols. The Oriols seventeenth.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Atlanta did use some relief pitchers yesterday. They used four,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: and they had to use some of their better relievers.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I think to finish the game off yesterday because it
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: was a save situation. I got that game right with
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: over and team total over that I added it to
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: my card man one of those two because Sale didn't
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: have his best game yesterday. But whatever, Atlanta won the game.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: This game, Atlanta is going with Grant Holmes. He's a
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: pretty mediocre. He's got a three point seventy r one
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: point three to four whip is not that good. Is
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: the ra should be higher than it is. He's been
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: better on the road this year, which is the opposite
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: of last year. Last year Holmes was better at home.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: This year, he's better on the road. I don't know why.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Three point twenty five Roady Ram He's been okay. He's
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: not giving up a lot of runs, but he doesn't
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: really go deep into his outings and he does put
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base. He's got a low hit ray,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: but obviously the problem is the walks. He has way
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: too high of a walk rate, and his strikeout rate
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: is not really that great. So I don't think he's
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: that good of a pitcher. But he's like serviceable. He'll
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: come in there in Atlanta more often than not. They'll
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: be in the game when he pitches. But he's not
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: great either. Against Baltimore, these numbers are not good, but
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size. Six hitters have faced him
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: fifteen at bats, but they've had the best of him
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: for sixty seven average, twelve twenty two oh ps, two strikeouts,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: three walks, So I don't really trust Homes in the
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: spot and I don't think he's the better pitcher here.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: So even Baltimore is in a bad spot returning home.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: But I think Baltimore has the better starter. And you know,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: I don't like that when I get things conflicting with
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: each other because I can't find a play on it.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't want to have, you know, too many
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: plays either, so I feel like I'm being selective here.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: But here, I think Baltimore has the better of the
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup here, but they don't have the better
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: of the situation. However, they do have a rest advantage,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: so maybe that will help them overcome the return home spot.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: And they got Trevor Rodgers on the mound. His numbers
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: don't look that good four point two to eighty RRA,
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: one point three whip, but he was good for Baltimore
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: last year and he's been much better recently for Baltimore.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: So he's in better form now after he was really
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: struggling at the beginning of the season. He's still not
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: as good at home though, four point six six Homie Race.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit concerning. But he's been good, Like
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I said, recently, he's allowed one or zero earned run
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: in five starts in a row, and he's allowed three
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: or fewer in every start going all the way back
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: through the beginning of June. So yeah, he's obviously in
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: form right now, and the Orioles have one of his
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: last five starts. That's all pretty good, except his walk
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: rate a little bit high recently, but only because one
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: start against the Reds he was out of control. His
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: hit rate has gone down, it's at least below one
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: per inning at this point. His walk rate is okay
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: at this point. His strike out rate is not great,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: though he doesn't really strike that many guys out. Numbers
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta not bad eighty seven at best, so, and
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Lanta's familiar with him because he used to be in
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: their division. He was on Miami, and they haven't really
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: done that much damage against him two forty one average,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: six to sixty six evil ops against him, twenty four
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: out of seven strike out walk ratio. But all those
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: numbers across the board pretty much favor Rogers here. I
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: think given everything that we have going on in this game,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: I think of Baltimore first five, or maybe Baltimore full game,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: because Atlanta is the unrested bullpen here. I think I
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: would lean to Baltimore. I don't really want to do
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: it because it's a return home spot. You get kind
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: of a cheap price with it at minus one twenty
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: or so, and the public's gonna come in on Atlanta
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the tickets around Atlanta. You know,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: it looks really easy to play the better team, like
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: the team with the better record as an underdog, right,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: even though I know I said the same thing about
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: the Cubs and we are gonna be on the Cubs here.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: It's not, you know, a hard and fast rule, right,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: like the specific situation matters. But yeah, in this case,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's just something that supplements the leaning towards
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is that it looks way too easy to play Atlanta.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Fifty percent of the cash on Baltimore. So the money
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: seems to be agreeing with that, and the money's on
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: the over nine in that game for what that's worth.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean it might be worth a shot
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: on Baltimore. And I still don't want to do it
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: because it's a return home spot, but they at least
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: have the rest edge and the starting pitching edge. Again,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: I think Baltimore first five though, might be a little
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: bit better because I still well, you know what, no,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: I would say full game actually, because Baltimore's bullpen has
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: been better recently and the rest in Atlanta's unrested here.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: So yeah, full game Baltimore. That'll be my lean in
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: that one, although I don't want any of these leans
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: to really be that strict. But Cleveland at Tampa Bay
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: this will be an interesting series, and when both teams
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: have good records, they're both I think they might both
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: be division leaders. Right now, Cleveland's close at least, Tampa
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Bay leading the ALE least, so though I think that
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: is not going to last. I think the Yankees are
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: still gonna win the Al East. Tampa Bay is returning
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip. They got swept in Boston
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: and then they had a good series in Toronto, lost
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: the last game yesterday, which was a win for us
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: on the show. So Tampa Bay returning home from a
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: road trip, though, that's not a good spot. Like I
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: have said repeatedly, obviously, it can be a distraction. You've
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: been away for a while, got to get back to
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: home life. Both teams played yesterday, so Cleveland also played
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: yesterday against Minnesota, and they went into extra innings and lost.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Even though Gavin Williams was excellent in that game yesterday,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: but Taj Bradley basically matched him. The game went into
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, and somehow Minnesota's bullpen somehow came out on
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: top of that game. I have no idea how that happened,
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: and Cleveland squandered a great start from Gavin Williams. But
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Cleveland starting a road trip here off a couple losses
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota, the spot is better for Cleveland started a
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: road trip, usually a focused spot coming off a couple losses. Still,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: they went into extra innings yesterday though, so the bullpen
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: scenario isn't that helpful to Cleveland. These four guys yesterday,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: including some of their best relievers, and they could not
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: finish the game off. Tampa Bay only used Legumina yesterday,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: the Little Bean, so their bullpen is much more rested here.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: So I think Tampa Bay does have a bull advantage here.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Their rank fifth, even though I don't love their era
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: being above four, but I think given the rest, they're
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: better than Cleveland. Cleveland's ranked fourteenth. Generally, I would say
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is probably the preferable bullpen, but not given the
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: rest situation here, Tampa is definitely the better offense. They're
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: tied with the Yankees and seventh. Even if I don't
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: think they're quite that good. Cleveland really been struggling. They're
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh right now, tied with the Mets and the Mariners,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: although they did get Jose Ramiroz back a couple games ago,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: but their offense still was really struggling yesterday. And if
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: you cannot get anything done against Minnesota's bullpen, that's not
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: a good sign. And Cleveland is at a starting pitching
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: disadvantage here. They got Joey Cantillo pitching. His ray looks
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: pretty good three point seven seven to four, but his
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: whip is bad one point four to whip. He walks
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: too many guys. He's a little bit better on the road,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: at least ray wise three point sixty seven, but his
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: opponent batting average is worse, so he's not significantly better
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: either home or away. His walk rate's been a major
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: issue recently. His strike out rate's been pretty good, so
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: he does have good stuff and then he can strike
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: guys out, but his walk rate's been a problem. He's
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: only got exactly five innings in every start in July,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: so he's not really going that deep into these outings,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: although that is kind of the new baseball unfortunately. But
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: he does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: His strike out rate is good, ground ball rate pretty
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: good as well, but his walk rate is way too high.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: He walks basically one guy every two winnings. You can't
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: do that, so that's his problem. He's wild, which is
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: not good obviously, and he would be a lot better
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: if he didn't do that. Needless to say, against Tampa Bay,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: he's not been that great. They only have six hitters
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: of face and five hitters excuse a stroke brain, I
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: can't count the number of lines here. They got eleven
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: at bats against him two seventy three average, nine to
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: nine OPS four, zero strikeout walk ratio, so that ratio
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: is fine, it's a small stample. I wouldn't put too
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: much weight into this, but Tampa Bay's offense when they
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: have face can'tee. They've had the upper hand against him,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: and Tampa Bay is going with Shane McClanahan, who's been
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: the better of these two pitchers. He's had a good season,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: He's had a good career and missed like an entire
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: season due to injury, but he's having a nice bounce
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: back season here. Three point one six ERA, one point
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: one five WHIP. He's been really good at home one
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: point eight to eight home the RA And that's another
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: thing I pointed out with Tampa yesterday. Tampa Bay is
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: not very good on the road, but they're way better
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: at home. However, in a return home spot, it might
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: not be the greatest spot for them, but generally they've
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: been way better at home. McClanahan has been way better
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: at home. His opponent batting average is below two hundred
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: at home. He had a bad outing last time out
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox, but he's pretty much been good
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: all throughout the season. That was his worst start of
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: the season. Does that mean he's coming out of form here,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. I mean, it's just one start,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: so unless it shows itself to be a trend, I
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: think it's more of an outlier because he's been pretty
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: consistent here. Although maybe you know, getting there in pitch count,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: although he's not really He's not even in a one
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: hundred innings pitched. I mean he's not really, he's not
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: even at one hundred yet, and he's a veteran, so
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't think that would affect him that much. But
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: given that he missed all of last year, maybe the
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: pitch count will become an issue. Our innings count will
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: be more of an issue later in the season. I
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: don't think it is yet. He's got a low hit rate,
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: walk rate is low enough, strike out rate is okay,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: gets a lot of ground balls, you know, not too
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: bad here, and he's going up against not a good
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: offense in Cleveland, and Cleveland four hitters have faced him
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: twenty at bats. They haven't done anything against him really
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: except Ramirez, who is back does have a home run often,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: but they have a two hundred average against him five
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: point fifty ops six, zero strike out walk ratio. McClanahan
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: has had the upper hand against Cleveland. So this is
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: a situation where it's a bad situation for Tampa Bay
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip. But they I think
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: they have a pretty clear starting pitching advantage and bullpen
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: advantage here, So which one of those wins out. I
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: don't know. Tampa Bay is seventy nine percent of the tickets,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the cash on them. They're public,
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: but it does look like the money's kind of coming
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: in their way as well. They're at minus one thirty
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: seven and a half is the total, with money kind
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: of backing the over here. I don't have a great
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: feel for this. I think I would slightly lean Tampa
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Bay just because they have the better match up in
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: the better home numbers, but I don't want them in
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: a return home spot either. All Right, Dodgers Mets on
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: ESPN Unlimited. The Mets are returning over a road trip.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: It's Friday, man, so a lot of that. They went
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: to Philly and Milwaukee, Philly and Millie. They had an
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: okay road trip. They split the road trip I think
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: three and three, which wasn't too bad against some decent
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: teams there. Mets, you know, they're still not as bad
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: as their record looks, although I don't remember what. I
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: don't think they're run differentials particularly good though. But they're
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: returning over a road trip. That's a negative spot. However, Dodgers,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: you're not going to overlook the Dodgers, so that shouldn't
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: negate that a little bit. But the spot's still better
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: for the Dodgers here. Dodgers are only traveling in from Philadelphia.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: They're on a little bit of a roll here. Mets
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: in the return home spots still could wind up getting
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: a bit distracted here, so the spot favors the Dodgers here.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: The starting pitching actually might favor the Dodgers as well,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: even though I don't really love either of these starters.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Neither team played yesterday, so the bullpens are rested. They're
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: both pretty good bullpens. The Dodgers are seventh, the Mets
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: are tenth, so I would trust the bullpens given that
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: they're both rested here, I think the bullpens are okay
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: to go here. Dodgers have a huge offensive vege. They're
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: number one. The Mets are number twenty or tied in
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh with Cleveland and Seattle. Like I said, Roki
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: Sasaki is pitching for the Dodgers. He's really hard to
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: predict at this point. He's had a very up and
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: down season four point nine to eighty RA one point
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: three to four whip. He's not as good on the
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: road five point four Roadie race, so you generally don't
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: want to back him on the road. But last road
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: start he gave up nowhere and runs of five and
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings at new at the Yankees, so that's
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: a good sign, like maybe he is coming back into form.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: He had a decent start before that against Colorado at home,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: so maybe he is kind of coming back into form here.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: Although I don't know if I really trust him on
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: the road though, maybe for whatever reason, he just got
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: pumped up for that game against me. I was pretty
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: shocked that he did that well against the Yankees. I
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: don't know. He's got a reasonably low hit rate here.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: His walk rate is a bit too high. Strike out
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: rate is decent, but yea, his walks are really the
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: main issue here. That and the home run rate is
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: kind of high, which is not great. And he's not
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: even really that much of a fly ball pitcher. Sasaki
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: against the Mets though. The Mets should be a bit
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: of an easier task for him though, and they only
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: have two hitters who have faced him, Bashett and Semi
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: and they're zero for four with no strike outs, no
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: walks against the Sasaki does have an unfamiliarity edge here,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: which a lot of times is an advantage. I don't
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: know if Sasaki is good enough for that to really
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: be a huge edge here. I don't know man but
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: I think he does probably have the advantage over Sean Manaia.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: And what I will say with the Mets with Manaia is,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna play this game, maybe you should pick
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Sasaki must start. But don't specify the Mets starter here
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: because they've been putting openers in front of Manaiah a lot.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: But recently he's just been starting, so he probably will
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: just start. But I don't know. Manaiah hasn't really been
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: that good four point seven four ERA one point three
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: to six whip. He's been a little bit worse at
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: home as well. Four point eight two Homie Ray wasn't
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: good in his last start against Philly, had a couple
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: of okay starts, and here recently he's not allowing that
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: many runs, not going deep into games though, so he's
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: kind of like Grant Homes. He's been like kind of
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: a serviceable pitcher here. His hit rates a little bit
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: too high, is walk rate is actually okay, which is
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: interesting because throughout his career a manaiah really. I think
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: his issue has been the walks throughout his career, but
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: he's figured that out. But it seems like he sacrificed
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: a hit ability at this same time where he's now
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: hit able and his strike out rate is actually pretty good.
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: It's above one per inning, so that's not bad. He's
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: still fooling hitters in that way. He's going up against
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: an elite Dodger offense here, though, and the Dodgers have
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: definitely raked against him, and they have a lot of
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: at bats against him one hundred and forty three to
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: eighty seven average, nine eighty ops, thirty one to thirteen
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. Yeah, I mean, I think the
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: way is to look at this game. I think the
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Dodgers could be worth a look. They're public though, obviously,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Dodgers are also at a cheap price.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: It looks almost too inviting, Like how do you get
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers at minus one thirty something, you know what
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: I mean. But and then on the other hand, should
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Sasaki really be that much of a favorite on the road.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe he doesn't deserve to be. If you would force
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: me to pick a side, I would lean to the Dodgers,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: though I think they do have the advantage starting pitching, bullpen, hitting,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: all of the above, and situation eighty eight percent of
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety four percent of the cap on them, so
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: it looks like they're public maybe the money also backing them.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: And again a general rule, you want to fade the
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: public because I think more often than not the public
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: will lose because that's how the books make their money,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: but not always. Obviously if the bigger cash percentages on
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: one side, it's not gonna be great for the books
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: if they lose that that game, you know what I mean,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: Like the books are gonna need the Mets to win
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: that to make money here. But it doesn't necessarily always
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: happen that way. But I think probably really the best
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: way to play this game, probably I would just say
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: the over, although I don't know if I love it.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Both teams were off yesterday, so again I don't know
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: if I love that with cooled off hitting and with
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: rested boltpens, but I don't trust these starting pitchers. Man.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: So the totals at nine, it's right on that key number.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: The money is definitely back in the over fifty nine
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the under eighty five percent of
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. Yeah, over is probably the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: best lean in that one. All right, San Diego and
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: Miami here, we're already at an hour, but there's no
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: other sport to talk about today. WNBA is on All
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: Star break. Miami has been really, really on a bad
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: stretch here.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: They've lost nine straight games. It just got swept in
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: a two series road trip at Milwaukee in at Houston.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: Returning home, the public's reaction to this might be, Oh,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: they're gonna return home. They're gonna bounce back now they're
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: back home. I don't see things that way obviously, you know.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: I think a return home spot is just always a negative,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: at least generally. I think that's the way to look
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: at it. So I think that's the case here as well.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: Returning home, they could be a little bit distracted, have
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: to get back to home. I think the public might
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: generally think Miami's gonna bounce back here. Like I said,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's really gonna be the case. San
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: Diego is at a rest disadvantage though, because they played yesterday.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: They had a big game against Atlanta. All their losses
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: in that Atlanta series. All three of them are by
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: one run, so San Diego is coming off a tough
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: series here. Although the public might still want to lean Miami,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: by the way, because Miami has a better record than
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: San Diego, those are some tough games for San Diego.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: One good thing for San Diego is their offense is
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: actually starting to do a little bit better and they
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: have more talent than being a last place ranked offense,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So they were like the
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: lowest ranked offense for a huge stretch of the season.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: They have more talent than that, and they are starting
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: to turn around a little bit. I'm not going to
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: say they're a good offense. They're not, but they're better
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: than they're not the worst offense, let's put it that way.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: They're continuing a road trip from Atlanta, so I do
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: think they're at a little bit of an advantage here
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: scheduling wise against the team returning home. Still, though, San
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Diego had to play yesterday and it was a big
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: game against Atlanta, so that's a negative for San Diego
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: that they did have to play yesterday and Miami didn't.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: San Diego's four relief pitchers yesterday, their bullpen is pretty good.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: They're ranked thirteenth, but I think they're better than that.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: Miami's ranked fourth, but I think they're worse than that.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: I think these bullpens are close, but I think Miami
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: should have a little bit of an edge in that
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: department just due to the rest here. Hitting wise, Miami's
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: been the better team. They're tenth tied with the A's.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they're quite that good. San Diego's
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: at least been better recently, and they've moved up a
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: little bit to twenty six, but they still struggled on
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: the season. WNBA All Star Game five point five air balls.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: That seems low. I wonder if you can actually play
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: that the All Star Game. They're gonna have a ton
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: of shots are gonna be fired in the All Star Game,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: and they're probably gonna be a lot of air balls
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: in that one. It's gonna be an ugly, ugly game.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: I think that game is Saturday or tomorrow, I mean
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: or Sunday. I don't know, whatever it is. I don't
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: pay any attention to the WNBA All Star I'll pay
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: attention to the WNBA but when it comes back, because
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: we can make money at it. All right now starting pitching.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: Miami was supposed to have Max Meyer pitching. He'd be
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: next up in the rotation to pitch, and he would
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: obviously give them a huge edge against Hermann Marquez for
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: San Diego, who is not good, Meyer would be the
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: way better pitcher here. Problem is my is on the
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: injured list. He has like a back issue or something
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: he got hurt, so he's not pitching here. He's gonna
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: miss some time. That's not good because we don't even
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: know what Miami's doing, Like I don't know if they're
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: gonna call somebody up here. I don't know if they're
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: gonna go with a bullpen game. I have absolutely no clue,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: So we have no idea who Miami's gonna start here,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: and the professional money is still backing Miami here, I
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: think because of the rest advantage of because I guess
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: fading Marquez. Marquez is going to pitch for the Padres.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Although I would say, if you want to play this game,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: I think you gotta play this game action because we
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: don't even like if you find some angle on this
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: and I'll give you a lien on this game at least,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: but I think it's got to be action, because on
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: the one hand, I don't even think, you know, if
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Marquez is going to start, he might have an opener
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: in front of him because they've been using him out
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen. So San Diego might be kind of
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpen ish game. Miami, we don't even
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: know what they're doing. It might be a bullpen game too,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: So I think if we're gonna play this game, the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: only option really is to just play it action and
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: you just kind of vaguely know what the pitching is
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: gonna look like. Marquez five point two four ERA one
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: point five four whip not good man. You'd think that
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: a change of scenery, getting to go to San Diego
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: instead of quartz Field where he used to pitch, would
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: be better. But he's been absolutely atrocious at home, which
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: makes no sense. But maybe that's good for him here
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: because he's better on the road three point one to
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: eight Roadie Ray. I have no idea why he's better
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: on the road. It makes no sense. And Miami is
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: a more pitcher friendly ballpark here, not as much as
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: San Diego as though, but maybe Marquez just some guys man.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: They just don't pitch well at home because it's like
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: there's more pressure on them in front of the home crowd.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the deal is. Marquez has not
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: been making deep appearances though, even though San Diego has
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: actually won the majority of his appearances. Believe it or not,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: they've won seven of his nine appearances, which makes no
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: sense because he hasn't even pitched that well. But you know,
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: recently he's given you some innings. He's been okay ish,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: he's kept them in games as them and he runs.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: His walk rate has been a major issue still though
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: his hit rate is actually too high as well. His
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: walk rate is way too high. His strike cut rate
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: is not really that good. So really there's really not
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: much to like here, though I think he's been getting
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: lucky that he hasn't allowed more runs than he has.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Numbers against Miami not good. They have five hitters of
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: a face and it's a small sample size twelve at
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: bats and all contra is listed in here, so you
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: can kind of throw him out. He's over one, doesn't
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: even really matter even if you keep him in. They
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: have a four to seventeen average against him, eleven to
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: twenty eight ohps, five strike cuts, one walk. One of
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: the strike cuts is Alcontra. But yeah, Marquez, I don't
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: think he matches up well here. Miami. Their pitching situation
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: is likely not going to be anything good here. If
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: you're gonna play this game, if I would give a
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: lien on this, I would say over, I think you're
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: not gonna get great pitching here. But again, you know,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: with Miami returning home, their offense might be at a
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: little bit of a disadvance this year just because of
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: the return home spot. It might hurt. They're hitting a
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: little bit, but the totals at nine, so it's expected
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: to be somewhat high scoring here. Miami is at about
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty something, So Miami. The odds makers respect
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: Miami enough to favor them like that, even though it's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: not even gonna be a good pitcher for them here.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: Part of it is because Marquez sucks though sixty seven
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the under ninety two percent of
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, so the money's back in
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: the over, and then we have fifty one percent of
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: tickets on San Diego, which makes no sense. I thought
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: the public would be on Miami here given that they
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: have the better record, but I guess it's recency. Bias.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: I guess the public really just doesn't want to back
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: a team on a nine game losing streak. And San
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Diego looked at least pretty competitive in that Atlanta series,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: so that'll give them some cred with the public. Street
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: cred seventy six percent of the cash though, on Miami,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: do with that info what you want? I again, I
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: mean I would lean over, but I don't have a
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: great opinion on that. Toronto and Boston on Apple TV,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have a rest advantage and they're staying at home,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: so the Red Sox didn't play yesterday. Toronto did. But
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: the problem for the Red Sox is they have the
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: much worse starting pitcher here and they just lost a
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: fifteen game win streak. And you know, I talk about this,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: when a team loses a huge win streak like that,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: it's a momentum crusher, dude, Like it can hay you
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: over to the next game. And Toronto's the last place
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: team in the division, so I think it's a negative
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: spot for the Red Sox after losing that win streak there.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: And I thought Ron Jr. Suarez was coming back and
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: he was supposed to pitch in one of those last
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: games against Baltimore didn't happen, and he's not pitching today.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with Suarez here now.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: Toronto did play yesterday, they broke a losing streak, though
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: they had a four game losing streak, and they won Yesterdays.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Even though that's a big win over Tampa Bay, they're
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip here. I don't think they're really
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook a divisional opponent that has a huge name
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: like the Red Sox and starting a road trip for Toronto.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: I think it's a more positive spot for Toronto here,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: even though they are at a rest disadvantage, although the
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are not having to travel, so the Toronto's
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: at a travel disadvantage too. But I don't think it's
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: that negative a spot for Toronto. Let's put it that well.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Do the Red Sox do have the better bullpen? Toronto
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: used two guys out of the bullpen. They did have
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: to use Viarland for the second straight day their closer,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: so he's likely not going to be available here. The
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are the number two bullpen right now and
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: they have the best era, so yeah, they're a very
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: good bullpen. Toronto's been alright. They're eleventh, but the Red
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: Sox have the rest edge and they have the better
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: bullpen anyway, so they have a bullpen edge. Red Sox
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: actually have the offensive edge due their twenty second to
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: Toronto's dead last thirtieth. Then, even in the win yesterday,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: Toronto did not do a whole lot offensively, so their
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: offense is a concern. Toronto's going with Trey A. Savage
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: in this game, though. He's good. He's got a three
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: point seven to eighty RA one point one six fifth.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: He's young, but he's already got a lot of experience,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: including Worlds Series experience. He's got a three point two
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: to five Roady array this year, so he's been very
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: good on the road. He's been good just in general,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed a whole lot. He's faced the Red Sox
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: two times this year. In Fenway back in mid June,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: he pitched well. He went into the eighth inning and
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: only allowed three or in runs and Toronto wound up
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: winning that game. It was a close game though, and
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: he didn't get the win in it, but he was good.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: His command was good in that one. He hasn't walked anybody,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: and either Red Sox start that he's had. He started
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: the season with a five and a third shutout, five
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: and thirty. He shut out at home against the Red Sox,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: so he's been good against the Red Sox. The Red
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: Sox have familiarity with him now and they still haven't
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: figured him out. Really, don't worry about those numbers there.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: That was not the Red Sox. That was Tampa Bay.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay hits Y Savage. Well, the Red Sox to
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: not the Red Sox have thirty three at bats against him,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: one twenty one average, three to ninety four oh ps eight,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: zero strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, that's not good. The reds
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: for the Red Sox, I mean, have not figured him
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: out at all. And the Red Sox are going with
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: Patrick Sandoval because they don't have a choice. The Red
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Sox have too many injured starters right now. Crochet I
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: have no idea when he's coming back. Early is not
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: back yet. Suarez was the one who was supposed to
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: come back because he only has like a groin issue.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know why he's not back yet. But Sandoval
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: is gonna have to pitch again. He is just a
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: fill in starter man, that's all. He is. He's not good.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: He's got a four point eight two ERA, one point
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: seven to one whip is awful. He's made one home
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: start and it was not good. Seven point two ERA
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: has only made two starts here. He was decent against
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: the White Sox and not particularly good against Tampa Bay.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: But the Red Sox have give him enough run support
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: in that game that he's still the Red Sox are
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: still able to win the game. He didn't get a
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: win in either starts. First one he didn't pitch enough
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: innings to qualify. The second one, he wasn't great. He
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: gave up too many hits, too many runs that his
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: command has been good. He has ten strikeouts, two walks,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: and nine to third. That's pretty good. But four hits, yeah,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: that's not gonna cut it. Man. I don't think Sandoval
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: is good against Toronto. Let's see. His numbers are okay
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: against Toronto in thirty eight to bats to sixty three
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: average six oh seven ops, seven to three strike out
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. But he's still obviously the way lesser pitcher
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: against you. Savage. Red Sox are favored here, even though
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox do have a rest edge. The Red
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: Sox look public. Public is just gonna expect the Red
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: Sox to bounce back after they've been hot. Red Sox
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: have the better record, so public's gonna come in on them.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: Seventy percent of tickets eighty one percent of the cash
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: on the Red Sox at a minus one thirty price.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: I know the Red Sox have the rest edge here,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: but given that they just lost a long wind streak
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: that could hang them over, they don't have the starting
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: pitching edge here. They do have the bullpen edge. The
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: way to play this game, I would say, is to
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: take Toronto in the first five innings, play your savage
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: to outpitch Sandoval here, and you'll probably still get them
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. It might not be as big of
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: an underdog price because everybody, well the odds makers of course,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: know the Red Sox will have a bullpen edge here.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I still don't want to do it, given
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: with the rest scenario and travels scenarios and whatever. But yeah,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: I think Toronto first five is the way to play
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: that game. I'm gonna take a quick break. I'll be
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: right back and then go over the last five games.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: No plays left, though, but I gave you three plays
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: early in the show. So we have a you know,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: a decent sized card today and hopefully the goal is
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: to go too and one man, the goal is to
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: get a win here, so hopefully we could do that. Yep.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: Inside I want to kill myself. We were on OWN
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight. It
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one in five. I don't
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: anything like this, with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. OWN four, I have
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: not had a good season.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: With wookends the slump that I'm on and the slump continues,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm trying to burn
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: my browins hack Man, I don't know what is going
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins arch Hape. Is that what it is?
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: have back with you as I always am until I
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: fucking killed me. Please. I don't even know what I
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all. Okay,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: Next game up is Houston and the White Sox. This
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: game I considered putting this game on my card. I
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: do have an opinion on this. This one was close
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: for me. White Sox are coming home from a road
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: trip though, so that's not a positive obviously, as I
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: keep saying they could get distracted. They had a successful
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: road trip. They won both series in Toronto and in Texas,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: so coming back home could be a bit of a letdown. Here.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: The White Sox are still actually leading the al CenTra.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: I thought it might be Cleveland, but the White Sox
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: are up there because Cleveland lost the last two games,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: so White Sox maybe won't totally pay attention to Houston.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: Here could be a distraction for the White Sox. Houston
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: swept Miami. Both teams are off yesterday, I believe, Yeah,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: so both teams are rested here. Houston starting a road trip,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: so that's usually a positive. You're usually focused to start
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: a road trip because you want to get the road
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: trip off on the right foot. So I think Houston
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: is at a situational advantage here. Uh Houston's bullpen is
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: at a disadvantage just because they're not as good. They've
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: been better over the last month plus, probably, but they're eighteenth.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: The White Socks have been okay at fifteenth. Uh, So
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: I think the White Sox do have a better bullpen here.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: White Sox fourteenth in offense, Houston thirteenth. These are two
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: pretty capable offenses, which is going to factor into what
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: I think about this game. On the surface, it looks
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: like you give two pretty decent starters here. I'm gonna
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: kind of fade that sentiment in this one though. Spencer
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: Arraghetty is pitching for Houston. He looked good early this season.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: He's got some potential, He's got a high ceiling in
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: my opinion, he's got good strikeouts stuff. He's way too
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: wild though. He walks a ton of guys. He's got
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: a four point three four ERA one point three to
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: one whip, really mediocre stuff there, but he's been considerably
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: worse on the road five point five to two Rodeo race,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: so that's not good. He's walked ten guys over his
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: last nine innings. I mean, come on, man, even though
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: he allowed one run against Baltimore. You can't do that.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: You can't walk that many guys. He's really only had
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: one good start over his last over the last month. Really,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: he's made one good start. That's not good. He's got
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: a low hit rate, so he's been very hard to hit.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: Strikeout raiders right at one per inning. That's good as well.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: But the walk rate is enormous. He has one of
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: the worst walk rates in baseball really, so that's a
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: huge concern. He's got to stop doing that. And that
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: is fixable. You can fix your command. But the problem
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: is a lot of times when guys try to do that,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: they've become more hittable. So you have to try to
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: find that balance there, and he's very very imbalanced towards
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: the wildness here against the White Sox. They don't really
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: have much experience against him, so he does have kind
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: of an unfamiliarity edge here is why I kind of
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: hesitate to want to go where I want to go
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: with this, which is I like the over in this
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: game if you couldn't tell the White Socks have hit
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: him when they have seen Really it's only been Ben
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: and Tendy though it's him and Vargas. They're two for
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: six off in lifetime, but both hits are Ben and Tendy.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: They do each have a walk off him and Ben
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: and Tendy has a strikeout. But then again, even though
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: Ben and Tendy's been able to hit him, Vargas hasn't
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: and the rest of the lineup hasn't faced him before,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: so arroget he might actually be able to fool a
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: White Sox lineup that hasn't seen him before. So that's
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: kind of my concern looking at the over here. Davis
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: Martin is pitching for the White Sox. Good season from him,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: kind of coming from out of nowhere, but he's kind
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: of struggling recently. He's got a three point three to
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: one r one point two to seven whip. His numbers
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: are getting a little bit worse here. He's been good
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: at home though, so that's another hesitation I have with
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: either the over or I kind of like Houston in
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: this game too, because I just told you about the
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: situation whatever. But I don't really necessarily know if I
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: want to rely on Martin to do poorly at home,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: because he's been very good at home one point eight
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: Homie Ray. He struggled recently though his last start was
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: actually good at Toronto, but prior to that had a
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: couple of questionable starts in there. One was at home
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox, although his other home starts have
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: been good, so it's really been on the road where
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: most of the damages come against him. He does still
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: have a low ish hit rate on the season, his
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: walk rate is fine, strike gout rate is decent, so
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: he does still have pretty good numbers here across the
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: board against Houston, though they've been able to hit him.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: They have thirty seven at bats, so it's not that
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: small as a sample here three twenty four average, eight
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: seventy seven ops, six y four strike out walk ratio,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: so Houston does have an edge over him in the matchup.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: So looking at this game, my strongest opinion on this
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: was the over. I'm gonna I'm gonna still agree with that.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: Fifty to fifty on the tickets, ninety one percent of
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over total is mostly at eight
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. If you're gonna do that, I would
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: say play it over eight and a half, even if
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: it is juiced a little bit at minus one twenty
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: or whatever, because it's better than playing it over nine
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: because nine is the key numbers. You'd rather have that
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: be a win than a push. All the odd numbers
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: are key in baseball because every tie has to be broken,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: some team has to win the game. So I think
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: the over might make the most sense there. I mean,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: you have two pitchers that are probably not quite as
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: good as they appear to me. The White Socks are
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: getting the money at like minus one thirty or so
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: here sixty nine percent of tickets eighty five percent of
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. I don't know if I agree
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: with that. And initially they open it like minus one fifty,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: and then that line got hammered all the way down.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: But maybe it was a fake move and maybe the
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: real money is coming in on the White Sox. I
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: don't think I agree with it, though I think Arrogetti
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: might have the advantage of that started pitching here, and
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: I think Houston does have the situational advantage here. But
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play Houston, I would do it
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: in the first five, though, and you probably still get
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: them as an underdog because the oddsmakers probably still consider
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: Martin to be better than I forgetting so Houston first
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: five makes some sense. But I think my preference in
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: that game is over Seattle and Texas. Texas. You know,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: we've talked about them playing a lot of low scoring
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: games at home, and they finally had a low scoring
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: game to finish the series against the White Sox. Both
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: these teams were off yesterday. Texas is staying at home.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: They've lost three out of four though, so Texas might
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: want to They might be in bounced back mode here,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: and this will be a big series really for both teams.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: It is a divisional series, and these teams are only
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: separated by a half game in the Al West. Right
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: near the top of it, Houston is by no means
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: out of it, although the Aas have basically played themselves
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: out of it, playing horribly recently. Seattle's starting a road
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: trip after a bad series against Cincinnati. One of those
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: games they lost was against Chase Burns though, so maybe
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: you can give him a pass for that. Don't really
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: know what happened in the last game. We did get
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: a win with the Chase Burns one on the show,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: Seattle's starting a road trip should be a positive spot.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: Starting a road trip here, but Texas is in a
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: fine spot as well, staying at home. On the surface,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle has the better starting pitcher in this matchup.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: When you dig it in the matchup numbers, that's not
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: really the case. The bullpens are both rested, but Seattle
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: at this point has the better bullpen. Like generally, I
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: would think both bullpens are good. Seattle's ranked twelve, Texas
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: is seventeenth, but Texas has really struggled out of the
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: bullpen recently. Seattle, I think, is the better bullpen right now,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: although I don't really think either of them are bad.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: Texas has had the better offense, believe it or not,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: at sixteenth. Seattle twenty seventh, tied with Cleveland in the METS.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: If you're tied with those teams offensively, you're doing something wrong.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: But you know, looking at the talent level that these
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: teams have, though, it looks like Seattle should have the
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: better offense, so it is a bit strange they've been
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: way underperforming. Seattle's got Bryce Miller pitching here. Miller basably
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: their best pitcher this year. He's been very good a
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: two point two seventy ray point eighty eight whip, but
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: he's definitely been a bit vulnerable on the road. He
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: pitches really well in Seattle in the pitcher friendly park there.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: Texas is also pitcher friendly, but he does have a
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: three point three to four roady Ray, which isn't bad,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: but it's way worse than his home he Ray Miller.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: You know, he hasn't been quite as good as last
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: couple of outings here. Still pretty good though he's allowed
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: more than three on runs only once, although that was
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: two starts to go on the road at Miami, which
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: is another pretty pitcher friendly park. Overall, pretty good numbers
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: here though, low hit rate, low walk rate, a high
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: strike up rate, so across the board, he's been good.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: And he missed the early prior to the season, I think,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: or something due to an injury. But yeah, generally I
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: think he is a pitcher you do want to back.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: But in this spot where he's been a little bit
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: less good recently, and he's got bad matchup numbers against Texas,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: believe it or not. In twenty nine at bats three
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: it's not a huge sample, but three seventy nine batting average,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: twelve sixty four ohps eight five strike out walk ratio.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the deal is, but he's not
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: been that good against sexast, so he may struggle here.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: Texas is going with Mackenzie Gore. Gore a four point
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: eighty RA at one point two eight whip. That whip
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: kind of indicates his ERA should be a little bit
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: lower than that. Gore has been better at home, a
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: three point four to four home e RA, so the
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: home road splits in this game favorite Gore, even though
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: his home array is like basically the same as Miller's
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: road y RA. So that's how much better Miller has
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: been than Gore, just on the season. But still Gore
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: is in the better of his home road splits here
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: and Miller is in the worst of his. Gore struggled
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: recently though he's allowed five plus runs and three of
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: his last four outings. That's not good, and one of
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: the bad ones was at home as well. However, I
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with him here, because usually
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: he walks too many guys and he's very hard to hit.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: And he looks like he's changed something because this month
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: is hit rate has gone way up, but his walk
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: rate has been very low. Twenty five to four strike
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio this month in nineteen to two thirds innings,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: so his command numbers have been have been very good.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate's been good this month, twenty four hits
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: big problem though. The home runs have been a big
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: problem from this month, so I don't know what he's doing.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: He's become too hittable here. Over over the course of
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: the season. His hit rate is fairly low, his walk
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: rate is high, So that's the gore. That's the gore
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: that we know in Love. Too many walks and not
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: very hittable. So that's basically what he's been over the
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: course of the season. But he's appeared to have changed
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: something recently, and it looks like maybe that's been for
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: the worst. I don't know. You'd like to see him
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: get the walks under control, but not at the expense
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: of giving up a bunch of hits. He does have
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: a high strike out rate on the season. Gore against
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: Seattle has been pretty good in fifty eight at best
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: two twenty four average, seven to eleven ops, nineteen to
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio. Believe it or not. Given
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: with the magic numbers, look like I'm gonna lean Texas here,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: even though I think Miller is the better starter here.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: You're playing the home road splits with Texas here. If
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: you do play Texas, the matchup numbers are actually better
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: for Gore than Miller. Believing or not, sixty nine percent
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: of tickets, seventy seven percent of the cash on Seattle.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: They're a slight road favorite here at minus one eighteen
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: or so. Here, money's also back in the over seven
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: and a half. I don't really know if I'd want
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: to do that, but I missed some unders recently in
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: these Texas home games, so it's become a bit less
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: of an under stadium. I still think it's a very
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: underconducive stadium, though, I just think it was just so
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: under heavy earlier in the season. There was just regress
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: him is bound to happen, you know, and it's just
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: I think we got a little bit unlucky in a
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: couple of those games too. But the total is very
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: low at seven and a half. I don't think I
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: would want to do that here, even though on the
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: surface I thought possible under when I first saw the
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup here. But Miller, like his matchup numbers, is
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: really worrying me here, and I think, if you're gonna
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: take Texas, I would say only take them in the
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: first five. Feels weird saying that because usually I like
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: Texas's bullpen. Last year I was back in Texas's bullpen
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. They haven't been pitching well, though, so
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle has the better bullpen here, so I
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: would say Texas first five. There is the way I
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: would lean A's in Minnesota. This feels like it's gonna
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: be a series or there are gonna be a lot
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: of overs. I don't think I really want to do
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: it in this game, although it's actually for the opposite
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: reasons that you might think. But what we do have
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: years two teams that are much better on offense than pitching,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: so that should lend itself to some high scoring games here.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's coming in or they're returning over from a road trip,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: excuse me, which is not great, and they played yesterday,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: so Minnesota's had a pretty big disadvantage here. They're at
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: a rest disadvantage because the A's didn't play yesterday. Minnesota's
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip as well, which would
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: be a distracted spot here. I don't know that they're
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: really gonna pay that much attention to an A's team
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: that's been in a complete free fall recently. I don't
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: know if we want to play the A's who are
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: like a falling knife right now though. I don't know
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: if we want to try to catch that and get
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: our hand impaled. But yeah, Minnesota's in a bad spot.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: They did just get two big wins over Cleveland. It
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: was an extra inning game yesterday too, So yeah, Minnesota
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: is definitely in a bit of a negative here, and
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: the A's are coming in from Arizona. The A's had
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: a bad series in Arizona. They got just rocked in
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: that last game, even though it was gauge jump on
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: the road. I don't know what happened to jump in
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: that one. But the A's could be a better spot
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: for them because they've had a day off to try
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: to figure some stuff out, going on to Minnesota to hear,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: you know, a new series, maybe a time to reset here.
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota they have a bad bullpenal of the A's bullpen,
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: it's probably even worse. Minnesota used a lot of guys
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: out of it yesterday. They use five, so I don't
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: expect their bullpen to be very good here. Minnesota's twenty ninth.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: The bullpen, they're not good. The A's are twenty eighth,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: but they have the worst bullpen e RA. So these
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: are two of the worst bullpens in baseball, which probably
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: means there are gonna be some runs in this series.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: The offenses have been pretty good. The A's are tenth,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is twelfth. A's tied with Miami, but yeah, both
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: capable offenses. Jacob Lopez is getting the start for the
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: A's here. He might actually have an opener in front
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: of him. I don't know. They've done it a couple
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: of times, although I think he probably will start because
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: he's mostly started in his appearances this year. But he's
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: been bad six point six four ERA one point seven
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: to three whip, really really bad. Obviously, he's better on
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: the road, though at least better still not good, but
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: better because that a stadium is just so bad for
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: pitchers that he is better on the road inevitably five
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: point eight to eight ROADI array. However, his opponent batting
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: average is actually way worse at three h nine, So
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: very very strange, But yeah, I don't consider him to
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: be good at all. The A's have lost four starts
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: in a row of his or four appearance of his.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: He hasn't gone deep into any of them, and he's
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: not pitching well. He's not trustworthy. He's allowed way too
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: many hits, his walk rate is way too high, he's
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: a lot a lot of home runs, the strike cut
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: rates mediocrerent. None of this is good. So yeah, I
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: don't trust him. However, he does, believe it or not,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: actually have good numbers against the Twins in thirty four
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: at bats. They really have not done much against him
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: at all, one seventy six average, but they do have
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: a six sixty three OPS because they have three home
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: runs off him out of their six hits, sixteen strikeouts,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: two walks, so he's got a lot of strikeouts against them.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: So Lopez has pitched well against Minnesota, but it's just
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: I think those starts came last year when Lopez actually
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: looked pretty good for a decent stretch. Last year, he
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: hasn't done anything that gives me any confidence in him
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: this year though, so I don't like it, and I
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: think Zebbie Matthews is pitching for the Twins year. Zebbi
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: Matthews has way more upside, but I don't really like
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: him in this game. He's got a five point four
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: ERA one point three to four whip that's not great
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: or those ERA does. His whip indicates his ERA should
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: be better than that. And he's been good at home
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: two point eight to one home ERA, so Zebulon has
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: been way better at home than on the road. He's
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: not pitching well this month though, strikeout walk race has
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: been bad. He's a lot, a ton of hits, a
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: ton of runs, more than one run per inning. He
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: got destroyed by the Cobs last time out. That was
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: on the road. Though Matthews, it's interesting because he was
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: pretty good in June. So I don't know what's going
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: on with him. He's kind of all over the place.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: His hit rate is too high on the season. His
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: walk rate is actually pretty good though his walk rates low.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: Strikeout rate is not that high, and I thought Matthews
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: was more of a strike up pitcher than that. But
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: that doesn't look very good to me, and his home
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: run rates a little bit too high as well. What
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: do we do with Matthews here? Man, I don't know.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: Against the A's not good. Although only twelve at bats,
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: the only have five hitters will face him, so it's
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: a small sample. Can't read too much into it, but
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: they have a three thirty three average eight oh one
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: ops against him, three to one strike a walk ratio,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: you know. I mean, the A's are worth considering here
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: because Lopez at least I don't. I don't really want
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: to trust Lopez, but he does have the better matchup numbers,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: and like I said, there's a pretty big situational edge
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: for the A's here. They have the rest advantage and
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's returning home from the road there, you could try
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: to back the A's here. Sixty eight percent of tickets
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: on Minnesota, sixty five percent of the cash on them,
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: so the money is fading Minnesota to hear there at
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: minus one forty something. I mean, should Zebi Matthews really
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: be that much of a favorite. I understand the A's
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: have been awful recently, but I don't know, Man, Zebby
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: probably shouldn't be favored like that, So the A's might
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: be worth considering here just for those reasons. Maybe you
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: make it first five just so you avoid their bullpen.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe Lopez can hang his hat on those matchup numbers
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: and do better again here. But I don't know, man,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: I still think the best way to play this game
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: is probably over. I mean it, just it seems like
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: this series is gonna have a lot of high scoring games.
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: Neither of these pitchers really should be that trustworthy. Both
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: bullpens are certainly not trustworthy. The totals nine and a half.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: It's fairly high for reason. Sixty one percent of tickets
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: are on the under, ninety three percent of the cash
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: on the over, So I lean to the Aas, but
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: I think the over might still be the better way
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: to play that. Cincinnati and Saint Louis. Saint Louis had
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: to play yesterday in that makeup game against Arizona, but
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: they got the return home spot out of the way
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: at least, so that was just a makeup game there,
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: and they lost ten to six. But a lot of
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: times when a team returns home and they do bad
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: in that first home game, they play better in the
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: next game and they get that stuff out of the
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: way and then they just focus on baseball. So maybe
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis will play better here, but they're at a
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: rest disadvantage because Cincinnati didn't play yesterday. Cincinnati coming in
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: from Seattle, so they're having to travel across a couple
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: of time zones here, but they had yesterday off, so
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: there's a advantage for Cincinnati here. Cincinnati's bullpen is not
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: very good though, and they're not as they're not the
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: better of the two. They're the worst of the two
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. Saint Louis used three relief pitchers yesterday. Saint
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: Louis is not a good bullpen. They're twenty first, Cincinnati
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh. Though even with the rest scenario, probably Cincinnati
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: is still at a bullpen disadvantage here. Both offenses have
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: been struggling. Cincinnati's twentieth time of the Arizona Saint Louis
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: is twenty fifth, and this is a picture friend the ballparks.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: These offenses might continue to struggle. It looks like Cincinnati
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: is going with Ratt Louder, although I don't know if
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: I would trust that, Like they've had him start some
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: games this year, but they've also been using him out
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen recently, so I think if you're gonna
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: play this game, you might want to pick May May
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: must start, May must May must start for Saint Louis
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: because he probably has started because he's been an actual starter.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: But don't specify as starter for the Reds because I
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: think it's either gonna be Louder or they're gonna put
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: an opener in front of him. Louder has not been
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: good though, five point seven five Ray, one point six
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: to four whip Hey Louder ahead a podcast. It could
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: be Louder with Louder there you go. But yeah, his
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: numbers are not good here on the season. He's been
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: really bad on the road. Eight point twenty seven Roady Ray.
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: That is not good at all. Cincinnati has a hitter
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: friendly park, but he pitches much better there. For whatever reason,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: he got destroyed in course field last time, which is
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: skewing his road numbers a little bit. But he's still
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: worse on the road. He's gone very few innings in
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: his recent outings, so I don't expect him to pitch
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: many innings here. But while he's out there, I don't
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: really think he's gonna do that. Well. He's got a
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: high hit rate, of high walk rate, his strike up
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: rates not really that good. None of those numbers are
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: good against Saint Louis. I believe Saint Louis doesn't really
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: have much experience against him. They have seventeen at bets.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good against them. He's held him to
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: a one eighteen average and four h three ohps. They
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: have no extra base hits against him, two for seventeen,
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: five strike ups, four walks. Maybe the matchup is okay
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: for Louder here, but I don't know what Cincinnati is
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: gonna do here. Man, you're gonna get Cincinnati's bullpen is
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be pitching more than half of this game.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: So I don't really see how he could trust that
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: Dustin May is pitching for Saint Louis. He had a
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: stretcher's pitching well. Mediocre season for him though, four point
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: seven to eighty RA, one point three to whip. I
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: don't think he's really gonna ever fully like regain what
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: he once had since his injury stuff has happened. But
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: he's been okay this year at least, and he's been
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: pretty good at home. A three point sixty five Homie
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: aras the home road splits favor May significantly, but he's
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: been bad recently. He's walked four guys each in his
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: last two outings. That's not good. Saint Louis has lost
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: his last three outings. He's failed to make it five
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: innings and two of the three. He's not He's not
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: a good form right now. His hit rate is okay,
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: his walk rate is okay, his strike out rate is okay.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: So yeah, really mediocre numbers just across the board here
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: against Cincinnati. They've had the upper hand against him, but
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: they only have four hitters who have faced him somehow,
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: though May has pretty much spent his whole whole career
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: in the National League for the most part, except that
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: very brief stint with the Red Sox. But Cincinnati has
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: eighteen at bats against some two seventy eight average, nine
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: to sixty one oh ps, four to one strike up
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. I don't know what we want to do
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: with this one man. I mean, given the pitching, it
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: kind of felt like an over to me, given that
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: the pitching just really isn't that good across the board here,
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: Like none of these pitchers are trustworthy really, in my opinion.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: The money is back in the under pretty strongly, though,
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: and I think some of it. I think it's because
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: it's a picture friendly park and these offenses have just struggled.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: But fifty three percent of tickets and eighty eight percent
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the unders, the money's back in
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: the under eight here. I would not want to have
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: my money on that. I would not want to risk that.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: The money is backing Cincinnati, though, And I could see
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: the argument for that, because they're rested. At least, they
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: have a rest advantage here, and Louder at least actually
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: has the better matchup numbers. Don't know how long he's
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: gonna be in the game, don't know if I want
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: to trust that seventy two percent of tickets on Saint
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: Louis eighty two percent of the cash on Cincinnati. So
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: the money's strongly back in Cincinnati. Saint Louis is heavily favored.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: I think that's part of the reason why the money's
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: back in Cincinnati. And you're looking at minus one point
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: fifty with Dustin May on the mound, really, you know,
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: I agree that I think Saint Louis is way too
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: heavily favored there. In kind of a questionable spot with
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: the lack of rest too. Maybe you could grab Cincinnati
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: in the first five and hope that it gets you there.
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I was going to play that game,
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: that's probably what I would do, to be honest, is
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: grab Cincinnati in the first five. I would not want
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: to trust their bullpend, but maybe Louder having a decent
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: matchup maybe gets you there, and Louder with a couple
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: of Cincinnati relievers maybe coming into play there. Again, I
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: would not want to deal with it, though, I would
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: not want to trust that whatsoever. And then the last
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: game on ESPN Unlimited is Anaheim and San Francisco. Anaheim's
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: at a big situational advantage here. San Francisco's were turning
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip. They went to Seattle and
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. They had a bad road trip. They lost
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: the last five games. Maybe people will think, oh, San
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: Francisco back at home against a bad Anaheim team, maybe
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: they'll be better and win this game. I don't think
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: it works that way. Again, they're having to travel to
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: the Pacific coast too, and change time zones from the
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: Central time zone. You know, I talk about this a
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: team having to readjust to the West Coast time. Playing
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: a late night game like this, they're gonna have to
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: play till like midnight on their biological clock. Basically, that's
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: not good. You know, they have to readjust to that
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: on the fly. So I don't think that's a good scenario.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: Though San Francisco did have yesterday off. Both teams said
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: yesterday off. Though Anaheim's are in a better spot because
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: they're coming in from home, so they're just staying in
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: California even though they're go I went up from southern
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: California to northern California here. They did just lose to
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis in their last game, lost a little win
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: streak there. But the situation definitely favors Anaheim in this one.
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: They don't have to readjust to the time zone. Could
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: be a distracted spot for San Francisco returning on from
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: the road here. Problem is looking at the starting pitching.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco should have a starting pitching edge here, but
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: they're laying a huge price here, so there probably is
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be some value looking towards Anaheim in this one.
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, well, yeah, neither team used anybody out of
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: the bullpen. I don't why I'm looking at that. It's
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: just haden. San Francisco's bullpen has struggled this year. There's
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: the twenty fourth and Anaheim's twenty second, but I think
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: San Francisco's bullpen is probably the better one. But these
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: bullpens have both been pretty untrustworthy here. Hitting wise, Giants
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: are fifteenth, Anaheim is twenty fourth. They both struggled. I
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: think the Giants are not as good as that ranking
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: makes them look. Again, they've had some plosions in some
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: of these hitter friendly ball brocks, and they haven't played
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: particularly well offensively outside, and then they haven't been a
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: good offense at home really either. And it's a picture
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: friendly park here. Grayson Rodriguez this pitching for Anaheim. He's
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: trying to make a comeback man after he looked like
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: he might be a good pitcher when he was on
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: Baltimore early in his career. He missed an entire season
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: due to injury. Trying to make a comeback with Anaheim.
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: And obviously it's not going that well. Eight point two
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: to three RA one point seven to seven whifth. But
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: he's not this bad, you know what I mean, Like
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: if he didn't have potential, he would not be on
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: a major league roster right now, and he's been way
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: better on the road. I don't know what's going on
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: with him at home, but he has a three point
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: four to eight Roady ray and a way lower upon
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: a batting average on the road. That's a very small
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: sample size though it's only two road starts against Minnesota
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: and Detroit, but he's been significantly better in those starts
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: than he was in his home starts, except he didn't
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: strike anybody out in the Minnesota one, which is a
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of a red flag. So overall, I mean,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: his number really are still not good overall. Obviously, his
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: hit rate is high, as walk rates two high, strike
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: out rate is down, it's pretty low, so I mean,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of you a wait and see mode with him,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: although he's been at least, you know, potentially backable on
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: the road, so at least there is that. Numbers against
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 1: San Francisco are ugly, but it's only two hitters to
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: have faced him, and it's mostly Devers because g rod
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: was U on the Orioles and Devers was on the
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, so I'm pretty sure that's when they matched up.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: Ariyah's and Devs have a combined five for eight off
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: him six twenty five average, twelve ninety two o ps
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: one to one strike a walk ratio. It's a small sample,
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: so I want to put too much weight into that, really,
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: and he is unfamiliar to the rest of the Giants lineups,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: and they're not that great of a lineup, So obviously
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: it is theoretically possible that Rodriguez still does well here,
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: although Devers might be worth looking at going over his
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: hits plus runs plus RBI's prop, which is what I
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: recommend always because it's total bases. If your guy walks
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: your you're dead with that at bat, whereas at least hits.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: What's runs with RBIs if he walks, at least you
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: can get like a run out of it, were an
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: RBI if it's with the bases loaded. So I don't
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: know what we're gonna get out of g rod here,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: though maybe Devers will continue to hit him, but maybe
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: he'll do generally okay here. Logan Webb is pitching for
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. He's obviously better than Rodriguez. Web He's been
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: a staple of the Giants rotation. Maybe he's a little
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: bit overrated, but he's got good numbers here again three
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: point eight seventy array, one point one one whip. He's
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: been better, pretty much better at home. His opponent batting
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: average isn't really better, but his e ray is better
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: three point seven to four at home. He's been better
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: at home generally though throughout his career. I think that's
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 1: been the case. I know last year it was the case.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: He's been not so good recently. He had a bad
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: start in course field. But if you remember I told
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: you Colorado Rex slogan web like historically, their matchup numbers
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: against him were very good, and Toronto actually had really
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: goodchup numbers against him as well. And he did bad
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: here at home against Toronto as well. But he kind
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: of right to the ship last time out. He pitched
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: well against San Francisco or as Sousie against he is on. Yeah,
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: he bitched against his own team. Well, sometimes he is
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: going against his own team when he's not pitching well. No, No,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: he bitch well against Seattle, my mistake, but it was
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: in Seattle pitcher friendly parko though so is San Francisco.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: He might be coming back into form here, man. I mean,
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: I think I'm willing to give him a pass for
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: those Colorado and Toronto starts because his matchup numbers were
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: not good against them. He's got a low hit ran
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: on the season, low walk right strike out rate is
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: not great, but he doesn't strike guys out really. He
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: gets a lot of ground ball outs. So again, the
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics guys don't love Web, but he's been so
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: consistent in doing it for so long that he's obviously
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: a fairly solid pitcher against Anaheim. He's had the slight
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: upper hand against them in thirty three at bats forty
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: two average allowed seven to forty oh ps is close
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: to that seven to fifty three threshold, but not horrible
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: nineteen to two strike out walk ratio, So I think
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: Webb does probably have the upper hand pitching wise here.
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: Don't know if I really love Anaheim given that, but
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: Anaheim it's if you're gonna play Anaheim, it would be
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: a spot play and you got to just play them
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: in the first five. I would say I would not
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: back their bullpen. But San Francisco there minus one fifty something.
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe it's justified because it's Web against g Rod.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, they should have the upper hand in that
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup. But given the situation and whatever, I
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: don't know, there is some argument that we had there
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: maybe for grabbing Anaheim, maybe like plus a half run
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: in the first five or something. I'm not gonna do it, though.
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: casual at San Francisco. I just think the situation here
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: is strong enough that it does favor Anaheim over this
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup here. But it's kind of an intuitive thing,
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 1: and of course it's not gonna make the cut for
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: me because there are too many conflicting factors. But yeah,
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: it looks like San Francisco's public with the money coming
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: in on them as well, and the over is getting
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: some money as well there over eight and a half.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for that. So yeah,
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: that game is definitely a not one that I have
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: a great field for at all. I don't even really
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: have a great read on it. And that's gonna do
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: it for the show long show today, But we have
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: three plays out of it. We're gonna fade the market
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: read apparently we're gonna take the Cubs on the money line.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: I think we have a good spot for and I
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: think we do have the better starting pitcher based on
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers there, even though I don't feel good
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: about fading Jared Jones because I do like him and
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: he has started to pitch better. But we'll take the
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: Cubs in that one. We're gonna take the Yankees on
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: the money line. Again, it's like almost half to do it,
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: Like anytime Schlitzler is an underdog, it almost seems like
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: you gotta just do it. And then we're gonna be
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: on the over in Arizona and Washington over nine and
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: a half. Hopefully that one can get there. Both teams
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: have been hitting well. Pitching is probably a little bit spotty,
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: so let's do that as well. Even though I know
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: e Rod's had a good season, but he's not as
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: good as he looks. Hopefully we have a winning day
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: out of this man. That's the goal. Two and one
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: would be would be a winning day, and that would
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: satisfy me enough. I'd love to go three and zero
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: if we can continue this run. Here. Learn it tone
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram, like subscribe to
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: the channel here. Listen on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker covered
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: in You because my Yuke channel on YouTube. You check
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: that out. I'm gonna put another one up. I did
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: a Strokes cover yesterday. Uh, it's a bit easier on
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: my voice, so you know, it's the way that it is.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: Got it. I thought my voice was kind of coming back,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: but it wasn't holding up that well when I was
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: messing around with it, So I don't know. Padreon dot com,
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: slash learn it tone if you want to support me
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: that way, and Loser cast every Tuesday night, and the
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: New York Giants g Spot podcast should be back at
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: some point football season. I'm ready for it, dude. I
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: want football to start. I did well with it last year.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: Let's let's get back to a college. Football is giving
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: me some problems some years, but I don't know. I mean,
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: I like the way that I handicap. Football makes a
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: lot of sense to me, and that's where I first
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: kind of learned how to do all this because I
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: was like trying to figure out how to win like football,
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: pick them league. So baseball is just a totally different
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: way to handicap. You know. It's just it's so much
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: more matchup depending whereas every other sport. I'm very very situational. Uh, baseball.
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: I'm some situation, some matchup. You know that's gonna do it. Peace,
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: enjoy the new outro. By the way, if the.
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 2: Doc starts talking, hand me the phone at somebody and
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: so that somebody know you do.
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 3: Not have to lose this round. Hold on, hold.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: On nothing not now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 3: Let me it bo. You are that.
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: Bad luck by time, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: Hold On, hold on, stay with me, now, hold on,
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 2: hold on, you're still here.
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 3: No, yeah,