Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Bankroll Management 101: How to Survive the Sportsbook

Transcript

Bankroll Management 101: How to Survive the Sportsbook · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:05
All right, hello, everybody. Welcome back to Targeting
0:07
Winners. The offseason continues.
0:10
We're trying to get through it. Today, we're going to be talking
0:12
a little bit about some bankroll management.
0:15
But first, Pete, how's the beach?
0:18
Beach is great. It is not on fire this week,
0:21
which is not on. Fire.
0:22
No mortar shells, no machine gunfire.
0:24
Your. No machine gunfire.
0:26
The cartels have been put back, put back to bed apparently, so
0:30
all is good. There's a Blackhawk flying
0:32
around with an M50 just in case there's any problems.
0:34
But I think everything is under control, Sound on the beach.
0:38
We are safe and going forward. Darren, how's the snowdrift?
0:46
Lot of it is melted. Supposed to get a little
0:48
freezing rain tonight, maybe another inch or two of snow, but
0:52
starting tomorrow mid 40s and steadily increasing.
0:57
We're supposed to actually have 65 on Tuesday.
1:00
I I don't even know what to do with myself that it would be in
1:02
the 60s in a few short days so. It sucks you can't make fun of
1:06
Darren anymore because of the weather.
1:07
That's. Well, you still can because you
1:09
know, 3 weeks later, first week of April, we'll get a freak
1:11
snowstorm and I'll be like 11 inches on the ground.
1:13
Well, we do have a cold fun coming in next week down here.
1:16
It's going to be 68 next Friday, so that'll be today in 81.
1:21
Weather or something like. That All right, well, before we
1:27
get into the topic, let's acknowledge the passing of Lou
1:31
Holtz, long time Notre Dame coach.
1:34
Darren, you're a big golden Domer.
1:36
The floor is yours. Pretty funny guy in the
1:39
broadcast booth as well sometimes.
1:41
Oh yeah, I mean, we, we probably grew up on him and Mark May
1:46
arguing like weekly about college football, which was
1:48
probably some of the best college football television that
1:52
didn't involve actual players that we've had in quite some
1:55
time. But yeah, I mean, got Notre Dame
1:58
A championship, started off as a Kent State linebacker.
2:01
I did not know that. So he played linebacker.
2:05
Yeah, exactly. Like you take the least likely
2:07
guy on the planet to be a linebacker, but it's Kent State,
2:10
so do with that info what you will.
2:13
But yeah, man, depressing day. I see on Twitter lots of even
2:19
Notre Dame haters or like, you know, the reason I hated Notre
2:22
Dame was because Lou Holtz kept winning.
2:24
So a lot of mostly nice condolences for him.
2:28
But yeah. And I mean, I guess this is a
2:30
betting show. If you thought Notre Dame had
2:33
motivation after last year to have a good season, Yeah, maybe
2:36
there's a little bit more there. So could be that info what you
2:40
will look at. Yeah.
2:41
Sucks. Good, good.
2:43
Felt the same way like when Mike Leach passed away like.
2:45
Yeah, that, yeah, that was horrible.
2:47
Yeah, that was terrible as well, but.
2:49
But on the good side, Akron Zips, yay, they went to, they
2:55
got their GPA up or whatever they had to do, they were not.
2:57
Multiple for that baby. The Zips.
3:02
So I LeBron is happy that's where he's from, right?
3:05
Isn't he from Akron? I believe yeah, he's.
3:09
There, I didn't read. Did you guys see like, did they
3:12
actually improve their grades? Because they said they got a
3:14
they got a waiver. So I don't know if that means,
3:17
yeah, I don't. We still don't study, but we
3:20
don't want to listen to you complain.
3:21
Anymore the NCAA was like, man, these guys are dumb asses.
3:23
I never mind just just go play. Just.
3:25
Here, just play. Did the NCA be like you're a
3:28
Four win team anyway? It's not like you're going to
3:30
the post season. So yeah, whatever, we'll see.
3:35
Oh, good for them. Yeah, a little bit on a comedy
3:38
in light of recent world events. I saw that college football
3:42
Twitter is still bringing the funny.
3:44
They have Carson Beck joining the military to overthrow Iran,
3:48
and they have Lane Kiffin in talks to become the next
3:51
Ayatollah. So that was pretty funny.
3:54
Pretty funny meme there. He's so he's not going to be
3:58
coaching at LSU this year. He's going to go be the new
4:00
Ayatollah over there. That's A to make sure nobody
4:02
hated him enough already. He's going to.
4:04
He's going to go over there. I did not see that.
4:08
I love that. That's great.
4:09
Never stop college football Twitter just never stop just
4:11
keep it coming we always. Love that we needed a slide of
4:14
Lane Kitchen dressed up like the Ayatollah.
4:16
We, I, I, I'll try to find it. I'll send it out to you guys,
4:21
but, well, let's just jump right into it.
4:23
This is bankroll management. A little bit of a reality check
4:27
for you guys. All those casinos on the Strip,
4:32
they're not built there because people win, OK?
4:34
The house always wins, not every day, not every night, but over
4:37
time they will always win. They have to build an edge.
4:40
They have unlimited money. So this episode is more to get
4:45
you to get your bankroll, how to management well and keep
4:49
everything going. That's what we're gonna talk
4:51
about today. But first, in a couple weeks, on
4:55
March 19th, there'll be our first our way too early national
5:00
championship preview. We're gonna be looking at some
5:02
bets, probably at the top 15 or so teams, so we can't stay away
5:08
from betting too long. So we got to look at some of
5:10
this stuff and we're going to see some of the odds.
5:12
We're going to look into that. That'll be March 19th at 7:00
5:16
PM. Any early thoughts on that
5:19
little sneak peek guys? First of all, I just want to say
5:22
the odds have been up since like the day after the national
5:24
championship ended, so it is not too early my friend.
5:27
We're actually like 2 months behind so.
5:32
And honestly, is it ever too early to talk about making bets?
5:35
Like you said, you think about this is the second show in a row
5:37
that like we're actually not giving out any bets.
5:39
Like I have itchy skin, like I'm shaking.
5:42
I, I I don't even. Know yeah I've got got any more
5:45
than bets. Yeah, but in two weeks, there's
5:49
going to be at least one. Somebody in this studio has
5:52
already made a bet. It was great, Apollo.
5:56
The teaser was it today, if you know what.
6:00
I'll I'll just share a quick story.
6:02
The day when we got our last foot of snow, the last Sunday in
6:07
January, I had nothing to do 'cause, you know, state of
6:09
emergency, they didn't want you driving.
6:12
Not that I was going to anyway. I was sitting here I opened up
6:16
some apps to bet some hockey Bet MGM had 11 promos for me shows
6:22
you how long it's been since I've logged into bet MGM.
6:25
One of them was a 20% profit boost any bet, any sport, so I
6:32
made a bet those profit boosts are great for futures by the way
6:35
but we'll. We're going to talk about those.
6:36
ARS. And as it turns out, the day I
6:39
made that bet is exactly 1 year from the national championship
6:43
game. So.
6:45
Very nice, and this one does not involve the ghost of blue holes,
6:48
right? It does not because I don't want
6:51
their, their number's too short anyway.
6:52
So I mean, I, I, I, I think when I do those bets, I eliminate
6:58
like the top three or four favorites.
7:00
I don't want it. Give me somebody with at least
7:02
1000 or better if I'm going to do that.
7:04
Agree. That's for two weeks from that.
7:06
So Oh yeah, can't wait for that. So let's just jump into some
7:09
bankroll management here, the first step there, and take it
7:11
away. All right, so the first thing
7:13
you want to do if you're new to betting or you're getting ready
7:15
to start a a new sport or any season for that matter, is how
7:19
much do you want to start with? Obviously there's no concrete
7:23
answer for that. It differs by person.
7:26
All I'm going to say to that is whatever you start with, please,
7:30
please, please don't be that guy that takes your mortgage or your
7:34
rent or your power bill or your car payment or whatever else you
7:40
pay to help you live and support your family.
7:43
Do not take money from that. You can start with as little as
7:47
100 bucks. If you have more than that,
7:49
that's even better. But just do not take this from
7:54
necessary things that are required for living comfortably,
7:58
OK? Look at this as entertainment.
8:01
You are not gonna hit the six leg anytime touchdown score or
8:06
parlay that you see once every three months.
8:11
Just don't do that. So start with an amount that
8:14
you're comfortable with, something that if you lose it,
8:17
you're not going to freak out. It's going to make Saturday's
8:21
way less stressful. And again, this should be fun.
8:25
This should be a form of entertainment.
8:28
Just just you dispose dispensable income, disposable
8:32
income, whatever you want to call it, that's what you need to
8:34
use whatever. That pay your bills.
8:36
Make sure you can still buy your kids the GI Joe at the Kung Fu
8:39
Grip. Make sure you can still do all
8:40
that and not have to donate blood or sell a kidney or
8:44
anything like that. That's always important.
8:46
We do like our kidneys, and sorry, kidneys are important.
8:52
There'll be no college this fall.
8:54
We don't want that either. Right, so, oh hey, wasn't there
8:58
a point on the bottom there? Let's go into that too, because
9:00
that actually helps as well. Pete, you want to tackle that
9:03
one 'cause I'm already tired of talking.
9:04
Yeah, no, this is good. I mean, So what I do largely
9:07
first is I, I will figure out the amount that I'm going to bet
9:10
through the year and I will put it into my account and I will
9:12
leave it there, right. And then that's my about to bet
9:14
with. But one of the ways to increase
9:17
that amount is looking for ways to add to the bankroll, right?
9:19
Look for free money, right? Free money are things like
9:23
boosts, right? Darren just talked about 1 he
9:25
stumbled into, right, just stepping into a one of his
9:29
betting apps and saying, wow, they're giving away 20%.
9:32
I should probably do something with that.
9:34
Look for deposit bonuses, right? Always look for maybe I maybe
9:37
there's a new player in your state, right, that's come in and
9:41
they're offering a new deposit bonus for opening up account
9:44
with them. Maybe that's a direction to go.
9:46
So look for opportunities to maybe start with a new app
9:49
that's giving deposit bonuses or if they're offering deposit
9:52
bonuses, you know, if you, you know, begin to bet more, do
9:56
something else or whatever it may be, look for odds boost.
9:59
That's one thing we do every week, right?
10:01
We talk about the bets we're going to make, but we look for
10:03
ways to build in some odds boosts or some ways to make
10:07
those bets potentially more profitable for us.
10:09
So take advantage of those opportunities that are there.
10:13
It's like using coupons, right? It's like taking advantage of
10:16
opportunities that are there for you.
10:17
So always before you place your even to the apps you use all the
10:22
time, look what they're offering because especially early in the
10:25
season, they offer a lot of those bonuses because they want
10:29
to get people into the app and and betting.
10:31
So look for those bonuses, look for those boosts and take
10:35
advantage of them. Every time there's a new app,
10:38
there's always a deposit bonus. Every single time.
10:42
Or a new state? Anybody listening or watching in
10:44
Missouri back on December 1st, sports betting became legal for
10:48
you guys. So if you haven't signed up back
10:50
then, yeah, now's a great time. New users usually get insane
10:54
bonuses. Obviously the larger ones are
10:56
more likely to give them to you, but they're out there depending
10:59
on how many apps have been given the OK to to be legal in your
11:04
state. But yeah, like Pete said, all
11:06
throughout the year, usually at the beginning of the season,
11:08
usually if there's some big conference game, I think, was
11:11
it, Tim? Not last year, but I think the
11:12
year before, one of them had a profit boost for every Saturday
11:16
night Big 10 game of the week. So, I mean, if you're like Pete
11:20
and you follow the Big 10 or your favorite programs in the
11:22
Big 10, hell, take advantage of that.
11:23
I. Mean yeah, it was the ABC Game
11:25
of the Week. Or something.
11:27
I mean, they're not going to let you bet a ton of money, but
11:29
still, anytime you have a chance to add to what you're getting
11:32
in, might as well take it. Right.
11:36
All right, next tip, figure out how much you want to wager.
11:40
Usually for beginners, probably like 1 to 3% of your bankroll,
11:44
you know start small consistent wagers, you know long enough,
11:49
you know for your edge to matter.
11:51
If you're you know for for their edge to not matter, you can bet
11:54
longer with it if you're just beginning to starting out.
11:58
Any thoughts Darren for the wager bet?
12:01
Yeah, like what you said, 1 to 3% is usually a a good starting
12:05
point, especially if your bankroll might be a little bit
12:07
smaller to start. The good thing about college
12:09
football, the majority of the games do take place on Saturday.
12:13
We do know October and November when Mack returns to weekday
12:18
action, there are some games Tuesday through Friday as well.
12:21
The majority of them are on Saturday.
12:22
So you can alter that. Yeah, you can probably go 2 or
12:25
3% because you're just not betting on as many games, say,
12:28
if you were a baseball better. Where?
12:30
Five out of seven days, there's 15 games to bet on.
12:34
And it would just, you know, just drive me nuts.
12:36
You'd probably be putting like 5 bucks on each game or something
12:39
just to keep your bankroll alive for a week.
12:41
But yeah, well, like you said, one to three, even 1:00 to 5:00,
12:44
if your bankroll's little larger to start with, is an excellent
12:47
starting point to to figure out a wager.
12:50
And and learn the lingo, right? Every week we talk about units,
12:54
right? Units are different for
12:56
everyone. So you should set what 1 unit is
12:59
for you, and that depends on your bankroll, how much you can
13:02
afford. And you should figure out what
13:03
that is before you start betting, right?
13:06
For one person, for a person, a unit might be 5 bucks.
13:09
For somebody else, a unit might be 50 or 100, right?
13:12
It depends what you can afford. And then you continue to keep
13:15
that unit consistent all the way through.
13:19
If one unit is 10 bucks for you, then every time you bet one
13:22
unit, it's 10 bucks. Do not deviate.
13:25
Stay with that all the way through.
13:28
Have the discipline. If you have that discipline,
13:30
it's the best way to keep yourself in the box.
13:33
Yeah, well, one good thing about the apps is like, no one's going
13:35
to look down their nose at you if they find out you're only
13:37
betting 10 bucks or something on a.
13:38
It's not like you're betting 10 bucks at a casino in front of a
13:41
bunch of people who just bet 5000 or something.
13:43
So, you know, you're only betting 10 bucks.
13:45
Only bet 10 bucks, who cares? The idea is simply to make your
13:48
your deposit whenever you're like.
13:52
I had a little bit of money leftover after the last football
13:55
season was over. I didn't have to add that much
13:57
to it. I, when I do, the goal is to
14:00
have that be the only time that I'm depositing.
14:02
I'm going to take that amount, spread it between probably 3
14:05
apps, but that's the only deposit you want to make.
14:09
You, you want to sit there in January and be able to be like,
14:11
wow, I didn't spend anything since like August on this.
14:14
And I'm actually getting a little bit back for for my
14:16
return. Nice.
14:19
All right, now this is where it gets into the nitty gritty of
14:22
it. This is pretty important,
14:25
Darren. This is one that you preach
14:27
night and day. I love this because the best
14:31
thing I got out of tracking my bets is I suck at so many
14:35
sports. I don't bet basketball, pro or
14:39
college. I do not bet baseball.
14:42
I rarely bet the NFL. And why?
14:44
Because after those seasons are over or in some case like
14:47
baseball, like when May hits, I'm just not succeeding in those
14:52
sports like basketball. I never know who's sitting from
14:55
day-to-day baseball. I don't know who's available in
14:59
everybody's bullpen. And I don't really care to
15:01
donate the time to try and figure that out.
15:03
I mean, college football is, is tough enough.
15:06
But yeah, for me and, and the reason we do this and Tim, you,
15:11
you actually had a a resolution a few shows back, you know, from
15:16
tracking your futures bets. I think it was you were like,
15:18
you know, what was wasn't super successful this year at Futures.
15:21
I'm going to, I'm going to, you know, go back on that a little
15:24
bit, maybe not do as many. And that's why we track them
15:27
because if you see you, you have a losing record in parlays,
15:31
which we don't recommend or totals or sides, just try and
15:35
avoid those bets and tracking them helps you do that.
15:38
And I'm, I'm old. Get off my lawn, man.
15:41
I just use a, a Google sheet and I plug in my bets.
15:45
And then when the games are over, I said with win or loss,
15:47
do the unit calculation and go on about my day.
15:50
I highlight the winners in green, the losers in red.
15:53
I look at the Reds and I'm like, OK, well, I should not bet the
15:57
Mountain West ever again or, you know, or whatever it is.
15:59
But that's why we do it, to help you spot trends, let you know
16:03
what you're good at, and more importantly for the sake of
16:05
banker, what you're not good at so you don't repeat those
16:08
mistakes. Yeah, just one example.
16:11
I was, I just went back before the show.
16:13
I meant to do the whole year. I only got down from the end of
16:16
the year down to like week 7 or 6, and yeah, it was four and one
16:20
in the Mac so far. And I haven't done the last six,
16:24
you know, weeks 6 through 1 or 0 or whatever.
16:27
If that's the case, Pete and I are going to take November off
16:30
and you just run the show, you know, back winners, baby.
16:33
We're going to watch and follow your lead then.
16:36
Toledo was very good to me this year.
16:37
So I think I think three of the four wins are with Toledo.
16:40
So we'll see what goes on from there.
16:43
Any final thoughts on that, Peter?
16:46
No, no I agree. I do.
16:47
I track mine via XL so same approach Darren uses.
16:50
It's the reason why I largely bet totals.
16:52
I occasionally deviate and mostly every time I deviate I
16:57
get kicked right in the ass. I get kicked in the ass 'cause
17:00
I'm not good at it, right? I'm usually pretty good at
17:03
totals. That's my wheelhouse and I try
17:05
to stay in my way. I also also know based on
17:09
history, that generally 3 bets is about my limit.
17:14
If I stay with three, I can I can allocate the appropriate
17:19
amount of time to those three games to get a Clearview on them
17:23
and do pretty well. When I start to expand beyond
17:25
that, generally I get myself in trouble, right?
17:28
So I've learned that through tracking my bets.
17:30
So, so I can go back and look and say, hey, where did I do
17:32
well? Where did I do where I did?
17:34
Did I not do so well? If you don't track them, you
17:36
have no idea what you did over time and you keep making the
17:40
same mistakes over and over again.
17:41
So same as the as the as Darren and Tim, if you're not tracking
17:45
you, you just don't know where you're making mistakes.
17:51
Absolutely, this is another important one.
17:55
You know you may like to bet on Hawaii but never chase.
17:59
Sometimes the best bet is not making one.
18:02
I see this a lot. I work part time on the weekends
18:05
at a card room down here and I'll see people they'll lose,
18:09
they'll play some of the bigger games and they'll lose, you
18:11
know, 1012 thousand playing the game and they'll bring their
18:14
last eight or 9000 over to these table games and try to win it,
18:19
win it back playing three card poker or even worse, one card
18:22
poker like war when we were kids.
18:24
They they have that there and they're playing for like 1002
18:27
thousand a time and it's like I feel like telling them go home.
18:32
We're open tomorrow. We're not closing anytime soon.
18:35
So you know we're we'll be open tomorrow.
18:37
But yeah, the big thing is never chase.
18:40
Any thoughts? We'll start with Darren.
18:43
Yeah, I agree with that completely.
18:45
And I'll use an example. 2024, I haven't been shy about it.
18:48
Not a good year for me betting college football.
18:50
But again, that initial deposit in May, you know, I started
18:55
hammering out some futures bets. That was all I had to make
18:57
because even though I might have been down, you know, 891012
19:01
units, whatever it was, I'm like, you know what, I'm not
19:03
doing a three unit play here. I'm not doing a 5 unit play here
19:06
because the rate I'm going that that's just not going to work
19:08
out. So just do not chase.
19:11
Nothing good ever comes of it. I mean, we love watching Hawaii.
19:15
They're very entertaining, but you don't want to be forced to
19:17
be betting on Hawaii all the time.
19:21
Except for me. Yeah, very good to.
19:24
Be this year. Hawaii was was your Toledo.
19:28
Maybe go there next year instead of Mexico.
19:30
Oh, that. Would be.
19:31
Drug cartels in Hawaii, but you know.
19:34
Hawaii's very expensive, Mexico's not, so that's fine.
19:37
Tim, come on. If you're not waking up having a
19:39
mimosa surrounded by gunfire, are you even really living your
19:42
best life? I'm not.
19:43
Living my best life. I got to get down there.
19:46
That's another quick ad if you're chasing and you're
19:49
betting at night if you're out with your friends.
19:50
I know it's hard to do if you're in this condition, but try not
19:54
to bet when you're drunk. Usually if you're chasing that
19:57
late, you're out Saturday night betting on Hawaii when you're
20:00
like 5 Long Island ice teas deep or something like.
20:03
This. If you went and wanted 5 when
20:05
you were sober, you're certainly not going to do any better if
20:07
you're drunk. Put the phone down.
20:11
It's a natural tendency to want to chase when you start losing.
20:14
Put the phone down. I mean, I was, I was playfully
20:18
chasing during the playoffs, during the bowls, but I had
20:22
extra. I had a crappy year generally,
20:24
but I had extra money just sitting in my account.
20:26
So I was just playing with it. I wasn't like putting extra
20:29
money in and chasing with it. I just had money in my account
20:32
and I was continuing to lose, which just proves out the point.
20:35
You shouldn't chase, right? I didn't care if I lost that
20:37
money because it's already in there, but I would not have put
20:41
more money in there to chase. That would have been awesome,
20:43
right? So do not chase.
20:46
It is very easy to do, it's very compelling, it sounds good,
20:50
especially when something looks bright and shiny.
20:52
That big shiny glowing red button, Red and skimpy.
20:59
Yeah, it's very eraser button right now.
21:01
That's what it is. But and you always hear that one
21:04
story, the one there's like that one time you hear that one guy's
21:07
like, oh, I was down, but I put it all on, you know, Fresno
21:10
stayed at Hawaii. They cover it.
21:12
I got it all back. That's like one in like, you
21:14
know what's? That mean with the with the two
21:18
buttons bet Hawaii, don't bet Hawaii and the guys like
21:21
swiping. The Oh yeah, yeah.
21:23
Don't be don't get into that situation.
21:25
Don't be that guy or Presti. Don't bet Hawaii Button just yes
21:29
and next Saturday will be here soon enough.
21:32
I mean, you'll get plenty of time to recoup.
21:35
Yes, or bet on what is our friend Ray bet on like Japanese
21:39
horse racing and stuff. Yeah, Korean baseball and.
21:44
Oh boy. All right, so Pete, why don't we
21:47
start to hear from this last slide here?
21:48
We're getting down towards the end.
21:49
We got some extra betting tips. Yeah, I'll take the first bullet
21:53
because it's something that anybody who's watched our show
21:55
for the past couple years knows this.
21:58
You know, if you look at my bets, you know, I don't
22:00
exclusively focus on one conference, but I do tend to
22:04
start with the Big 10 and go out from there, right?
22:07
It is the conference I know the best.
22:09
Obviously, I'm a Wolverine. I, I, so I tend to know my own
22:12
team the best. SO, you know, coming off of
22:14
that, I know, you know my conference the best, I know our
22:17
rivals the best and all of that. I paid the close attention to
22:21
the Big 10. So, and just because I live
22:23
there as well, I hear just without even trying, you hear
22:26
all this stuff by being there. So I know the Big 10 the best,
22:29
right? So I tend to start there.
22:32
So largely you'll see through the year, maybe 2 out of my 3
22:35
bets might be out of out of the Big 10 because I know it the
22:38
best. That doesn't mean I only stay
22:39
there 'cause there's there's many weeks that go by where I
22:42
look and there's just nothing all that enticing in the Big 10
22:45
and I'll start looking elsewhere.
22:46
I do have my other favorites that come up each year.
22:49
So Ole Miss was one of them, Hawaii was one of them.
22:52
You know, I do kind of go and find teams that tend to be
22:56
working well for me for whatever reason it may be.
22:59
But I do tend to focus on one conference, maybe 2.
23:03
I might find another, you know, maybe not another big
23:06
conference, but maybe it's the Mac or somewhere else that is a
23:08
little enticing or, you know, there's just something
23:11
interesting about them being the Mac as well.
23:13
We're up where I am. There's a lot of those teams
23:14
around me. I hear a lot about that.
23:16
So that also entices me. But I do tend to favor or focus
23:20
on on the Big 10 as a star. So I take the first bull who
23:24
wants to go next? Well, Speaking of Ole Miss, you
23:27
want to go back a little bit to tracking your bets with me, Ole
23:29
Miss? Ouch.
23:30
Did not catch them at all. After week three I was done.
23:34
I was like oh and three, no, no more.
23:36
Two years ago, we used to not even hear from Pete without him
23:39
making an Ole Miss over bet. But again, that's why they track
23:43
your bets. Yeah.
23:44
And let me just piggyback on to what Pete said because he's
23:47
1000% correct and very little to add.
23:50
But there's 138 teams this year, guys.
23:53
I mean, Sacramento State, welcome to the Mac.
23:56
North Dakota State, welcome to the Mountain West.
23:59
I mean, even the Big 10 with 18 teams, it's a hell of a lot
24:01
easier to, to get a get a good read on 18 teams than it is 138.
24:06
So he's 1000% correct. Just, I mean, start where you
24:10
live, you know, like Tim lives down in Florida.
24:14
He's a big Florida State guy. You know, he probably knows ACC
24:18
football better than Pete and I do.
24:20
So use that, use where you live to your advantage because
24:24
chances are your local game is probably half of the other
24:27
conference that you're watching. So it's it's a great way to to
24:29
start just focusing on one conference.
24:33
Second one favorites early underdogs late.
24:35
This goes especially if you see a team that has like a new
24:38
coach, new coordinators, you know, a lot of new players
24:41
coming in with the transfer portal, everything.
24:43
It usually for the first, you know, four or five weeks, it'll
24:46
take longer for them to, you know, to gel together, whatever.
24:51
But you have the favorites early.
24:53
That's usually, especially in the first couple of weeks, they
24:55
tend to cover. Even if you have those, you
24:57
know, those 23 point spreads, they'll win like 56 to three or
25:01
something, especially those big college things.
25:04
So I live, yeah, bet the favorites earlier, I guess maybe
25:09
a week 5 or 6, maybe start giving the underdogs a little
25:12
bit more consideration. I don't know if you have any
25:14
thoughts on that guys. Well, yeah, I'll go first.
25:18
So the reason I I threw that one there and we talked about the
25:21
last slide about not chasing. There's going to be people that
25:25
chase, there's going to be a lot of Joe Public betters that
25:28
chase. They're going to be sitting
25:29
there on a Saturday night. They're going to be like, how am
25:32
I supposed to get my money back? And it's just human nature to
25:36
pick a favorite. So if you know those, if the
25:39
college football lines come out Sunday afternoon, Sunday night,
25:42
you're breaking down your games and you actually like a
25:45
favorite. Say they're laying 6 1/2 points,
25:48
go ahead and bet it then, because if that game is as that
25:50
game's kicking off, people are losing their money and trying to
25:53
get it back. Like I said, they're naturally
25:55
going to bet on the favorites and even more so if they're home
25:58
favorites that just, you know, everybody's like, wow, I've lost
26:00
my money. I can't count on this 6 1/2
26:02
point underdog. So yes, if you like a favorite,
26:05
bet it early. Obviously the flip side to that
26:07
is when all these people are betting on the favorites on game
26:10
day, that just means the spread's going up, which means
26:13
if you like an underdog and you wait till right before kickoff,
26:16
you're going to get more points. You know, that's 6 1/2 point
26:18
dog. You can get 7 1/2 by kick off.
26:21
So that's just like a a regular fading the public kind of kind
26:28
of tip in there. Just the public is going to bet
26:31
favourites more than they bet underdogs.
26:33
So depending on what side you're on, either bet it Tuesday or
26:38
wait till Saturday 10 minutes before kick off.
26:43
All right, the QB is easily the most important position.
26:46
Know the backup, Peter? Yeah, I mean, I think that's
26:52
pretty evident to most people, but I'm not sure most people
26:55
bother to look to see who the backup is, right?
26:57
And at the end of the day, you know that guy, the QB goes down
27:00
in the first quarter and you could your back could be out the
27:03
window pretty quickly, right, Especially if the backup is a
27:06
big step down. And for many of these teams, it
27:09
can be a big step down. This is very possible, even more
27:12
so now in this era of the portal, right where you've got
27:16
teams that might have a pretty decent starting quarterback and
27:20
behind them, behind them, they have a a bucket of balls, right?
27:23
There's not much behind them at times.
27:25
And so that drop off can be rather significant.
27:28
It's important that you know that, right?
27:29
And especially if there's any type of you know, you can't, you
27:33
know you can't predict injuries, but you know, if they are, if
27:37
their team is playing in some type of conditions that could
27:41
potentially with the predictability of an injury
27:44
increases, really tough defense, weather, you know, things that
27:48
were an injury, the probability of an injury increases.
27:51
Then it's even more important to understand who that backup is
27:54
and in fact that factor that into your betting.
27:57
But it is really important because obviously we know
28:00
quarterbacks are extremely important and without them, you
28:03
know, without your starter, you know, it can be pretty
28:05
catastrophic, especially for certain teams that really rely
28:08
on their quarterbacks. If you just step back and look
28:10
at some of the teams, you know, across college football, some of
28:13
these teams are heavily reliant on their starting quarterback.
28:16
Like that is their team, right? If you're going to bet on that
28:19
team, you know, you, you really need to, you know, keep keep
28:22
that in mind, 'cause you are betting on that quarterback as
28:25
well, not just that team. So keep that in mind and know
28:28
who the backup is. Yeah, always factor that into
28:32
your betting. Yeah, she Do you know the name
28:34
or just a number? Well, I mean for Tim, the
28:37
number's. Fine, I couldn't tell you,
28:39
Florida says. I know 14's the starter and I
28:41
think 9's the backup. I don't I don't know even know
28:43
their name. Soon as irrelevant anyway so.
28:46
He's from Auburn 9 is Kevin something so but he played in
28:50
the Sanford game last year so. They're they're both going to
28:52
get your coach fired this year. It doesn't matter.
28:55
We'll see what we'll we'll have Mark back on.
28:57
We'll we'll discuss that later, but Darren, any thoughts on the
29:02
other QB? No, Pete's correct.
29:04
And with the portal now closed and spring practices kind of
29:07
really kicking into high gear this week, you're going to find
29:10
articles online, you know, the most intriguing quarterback
29:13
battles this year. That usually means those rosters
29:16
have two guys who are capable of leading their squad.
29:19
So kind of get familiar with those teams, know who those two
29:21
guys are and know that if you bet them, Yep, they can't
29:24
transfer now because there's no second window in April.
29:28
So you can like, oh, these guys have two capable quarterbacks.
29:31
So little asterisk next to this team.
29:34
All right, If whoever wins the job goes down, I've got
29:36
confidence in the backup. So that that's a good place to
29:39
start to maybe get a a list of 10 to 12 teams that do have two
29:42
people who are capable of of running the offense.
29:45
So. All right, give the Group of 6
29:49
some attention here. I guess I got a lot of teams,
29:52
the odds makers, they concentrate on the SEC, the Big
29:54
10, that's where a lot of the money's gonna be gone.
29:56
So maybe pay attention to the group of 6 here.
30:00
Peter, what's your favorite group of 6?
30:02
Yeah, well, it's not just where the odds makers are.
30:04
It's where the Hawaii, obviously Hawaii, but it's where the it's
30:07
where the money's going too, right?
30:09
I mean, at the end of the day, once the odds makers set the
30:11
odds, it's, it's where the money's going that drives them,
30:14
right? And so quite often, especially
30:16
those that are not like we are, obviously we are, this is a
30:19
betting podcast. A lot of the people that watch
30:21
it obviously are betters, right? And so we're, we're into the
30:24
weeds way more than the average bettor is, right?
30:27
The average bettor is out there betting on names.
30:29
They're betting on maybe where they went, which are largely
30:32
bigger schools. So a lot of the money is chasing
30:34
the bigger names around the bigger conferences around,
30:38
right? And so you can find some gems
30:40
out there, some opportunities out there in this group of 6
30:43
because there's not as much money being bet on these games.
30:45
So you can find opportunities in these games.
30:48
I find total opportunities in these games all the time.
30:52
So when I do deviate away from the Big 10, you will see me
30:56
picking those games quite often where where when you see me dive
30:59
down into the group of 6, right, and you see me bet on a Hawaii
31:02
or somebody like that, It is quite often that I, I'm seeing
31:06
an opportunity there where there's a total that intrigues
31:09
me because I think it's been overlooked a bit or I, or I
31:11
think just the, the money hasn't gone there.
31:13
And it's just, you know, that that number just doesn't seem to
31:16
make sense based on, you know, what the actual play on the
31:20
field is going to be. And so I think that's where some
31:22
of those opportunities lie and war.
31:24
So then, you know, where, you know, obviously the odds makers
31:27
are focusing, the money is focusing where everybody, all
31:30
the talking heads on TV are focusing, which is where the
31:33
money is being driven to because the talking heads on TV are
31:36
talking about these games, right.
31:38
If you get out of all that, you know cloud, you can find some,
31:42
you know hanging fruit out there with opportunities.
31:44
And so at least look around, see what's out there 'cause some of
31:47
those kind of low hanging fruit opportunities are out there,
31:50
especially early in the season. I was going to say it earlier,
31:53
but you'll see me early in the season.
31:56
Some of those opportunities are there, you'll see me betting
31:59
under. It's quite often early first
32:02
couple of weeks because two reasons.
32:04
Number one, you know, some of these group of 6 things are the
32:07
games are being overlooked and #2 defenses get up at speed
32:11
generally faster than offenses. Hence unders come into play.
32:15
You'll you'll hear me talking about that week, zero week one,
32:18
Week 2 after that it starts to even out.
32:21
But you'll see me, you'll hear me talking about that quite a
32:24
bit. Early this evening, Aaron.
32:28
Yeah, again, Pete's 100% correct.
32:30
And Tim, you touched on with the Power 4 conferences, the reason
32:33
I've got this tip in here, there's information everywhere
32:38
on those Power Four teams. I mean, they all have 20 to 30
32:40
beat writers. It's very easy to to to get
32:44
information to get injury reports on some of these larger
32:48
conferences, but you don't see that with the group of 6.
32:51
And, and one of the reasons I like betting college as opposed
32:53
to NFLNFL lines are super, super sharp.
32:56
There is so much information out there on all 32 teams.
33:00
If you think you found an edge, I guarantee you the sports book
33:03
had that edge four hours ago and have already factored it into
33:06
the line. So that edge you think you have,
33:09
you don't have. And again with NFL, there's 32
33:11
teams, we touched on it. There's 138 in college football
33:15
this year. And let me just say this, the
33:17
sports book, the odd makers, some of the smartest mfers on
33:21
the planet. All right, they, they know what
33:24
they're doing and they get paid accordingly.
33:26
But it is still difficult to have solid, solid lines for 138
33:32
teams. And and Pete had mentioned
33:33
hitting some of those smaller schools early.
33:36
He is 1000% correct. It's going to take a few weeks
33:40
even for the sports books to to get their their power ratings
33:44
and, you know, their thoughts on those smaller teams in order.
33:48
So it it's definitely a good time to attack, maybe do an
33:52
extra game or two early, you know, follow some beat writers
33:56
on Twitter. Hell, if you live in Fort
33:58
Collins, you probably know more about Colorado State than any of
34:01
us, you know, use that to your advantage.
34:04
But yeah, it's basically an information thing.
34:06
And yeah, you can't get the information on Colorado State,
34:09
but I can find sun on Ohio State without too much drop.
34:14
For sure. I mean, stepping off that what
34:15
Aaron said information, right? I mean, you'll see our preview
34:18
shows for, you know, like the Sunbelt and you know, some of
34:21
these other smaller conferences. If you want to do something fun,
34:24
try to do it yourself. Try to go out there and do your
34:27
own preview of a Sunbelt. You know, the ACC, some of the
34:31
that may be about the ACS, but some of these other smaller
34:33
conferences and trust the teams that aren't feel good in those
34:36
conferences, try to find information on them, try to
34:39
actually figure out what they're gonna do this season.
34:42
There's so little information out there.
34:44
It is really difficult to do that.
34:46
And that's what you're fighting all season long is there's just
34:49
not information on some of these teams.
34:50
It's just hard to get it, which you can take to your advantage
34:54
sometimes with some of these games.
34:57
Yep, and schedules matter with the end.
35:01
I mean, yeah, for me, yeah. I wish I did some more research.
35:06
I found out how many times teams are playing on the road on a
35:08
Friday night or a Thursday night.
35:10
I stay away from those. Darren, any thoughts with the
35:13
schedules? Yeah, I just want to say it just
35:15
says schedules matter and everybody's looking like, well,
35:17
yeah, no dud Jackass. Well, we ran out of room on the
35:20
graphics, so I had to narrow it down to what I was saying.
35:23
But basically what I meant by that is realignment has really
35:27
effed up some of these conferences.
35:29
I mean, you've got Oregon, USCUCLA and the Big 10, You've
35:34
got Cal and Stanford in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
35:39
You know, there's teams that are going to be flying across the
35:41
country multiple times this year and as the season goes on that
35:44
that's kind of like some wear and tear.
35:46
So I, I, I just had a, a example here.
35:52
Let's just take Stanford, for example, their schedule, they're
35:56
going to Duke, they're going to Wake Forest, they're going to
35:59
Notre Dame, they're going to Louisville and they're going to
36:02
Virginia Tech. Again, over under on frequent
36:07
flyer miles, take the over on Stanford.
36:10
But you know, and look at the start times.
36:12
If any of those games are like a noon start time, those Stanford
36:16
guys are going to be thinking that it's 9:00 in the morning.
36:18
I mean, the body clock is a real thing.
36:21
Tim and I always joke about fading teams going across at
36:24
least two time zones. It's no joke.
36:27
We've made some good money betting on those, those teams
36:29
that have to do the travel because they're just not used to
36:32
it. So pay attention to those
36:34
schedules. If if you see a team travelling
36:36
way out there, hey, did they just go back out there two weeks
36:39
ago? Yeah, they're probably a little
36:41
exhausted. So you, you look at those
36:44
schedules, not just, oh, that's a good team.
36:45
You know, look at how far some of these teams do have to travel
36:48
because it will make a difference, especially later in
36:50
the season. Yeah, I mean that was a lot of
36:52
my Hawaii play this year, right. If a team is flying to Hawaii,
36:54
you know that doesn't in a self meaning or anything other than
36:57
the fact that they're travelling.
36:58
But when Hawaii has a decent team and a good quarterback and
37:02
now a team is travelling out there, that's a problem, right?
37:05
That that is a snake pit you're flying into with a tired team
37:09
crossing a bunch of time zones trying to deal with a pretty
37:12
good team in their home environment.
37:14
That's a problem, right. So look for those opportunities,
37:17
right. I don't know how many times we
37:18
talked last year about, heck, this team is going two time
37:21
zones to face a pretty good team in a really tough stadium.
37:26
That's a problem, right? I don't care how good that team
37:29
is, that's flying out there. That is a disadvantage for them.
37:33
And we saw that play itself out so many times last year when a
37:36
good team crosses a couple time zones and goes to a tough
37:39
stadium and all of a sudden their backs against the wall.
37:42
And that happened many times last year.
37:44
So that those are opportunities to look for because they do
37:47
present themselves quite often. And Hawaii is a great example.
37:51
I mean you're a 20 year old kid playing football, you're going
37:53
to Hawaii. Are you really thinking like
37:56
with the business trip mindset? Not I like pizza.
38:02
Factor in a good team on top of that.
38:04
Bro just give me a pina colada and a pineapple shell and give
38:07
me the hell back to school. Chicks and hula skirts, there
38:09
you go. I'll take the L and we'll go
38:11
home. I'm good so.
38:17
All right, now we're going to do a little bit of review, but
38:19
first we're going to talk about in the middle there.
38:20
Evaluate your bankroll every 30 days or so.
38:24
This helped me out last year getting away from Ole Miss.
38:27
Pete, Darren, you want to expand on that a little bit?
38:31
I'll touch it real quick because Darren said something really
38:33
important earlier, right? And his goal is the same as
38:35
mine. Deposit once, right, deposit
38:39
once the beginning of the year. And the goal is to maintain that
38:43
all the way through. Now, of course, actually the
38:45
goal is to build it and end up with a bunch of money at the end
38:48
of the year. If you can't, fantastic, right?
38:50
But if you can't do that, right, keep an eye on your on your
38:54
bankroll, make sure that you're betting within that bankroll.
38:57
So you know, if you have a certain amount, right, whatever
38:59
the amount is you put in and you want to make it last all the way
39:02
through the year. The way I look at it, if I lose
39:04
every single bet, but I want to bet all year long, how many
39:07
units could I bet every week and lose every single bet?
39:11
You know, And if it's for entertainment for me, great,
39:13
then I know how much I can bet for great.
39:15
I can bet 3 units a week, right? Then I bet 3 units a week.
39:18
If I lose every single bet, then I end up with 0 on my account at
39:21
the end of the year. But you know what, I had fun.
39:23
I bet 3 units a week. I enjoyed myself all year and it
39:26
was good and I never had a deposit again.
39:29
But keep an eye on your bankroll.
39:30
Don't chase all the things we said allow you to do this, but
39:34
keep an eye on that bankroll. Take advantage of the bonuses,
39:38
take advantage of the boost because these will allow you to
39:41
build that bankroll right, Especially, you know, boosts and
39:45
bonuses. If you feel really good about a
39:47
bet you're making, then put that on the boost, put that on a
39:49
bone. If they take advantage of that
39:51
boost with that, with that game, because that'll allow you to
39:53
take a little advantage of popping up your your bankroll a
39:56
little bit, which gives you an opportunity to do a little more
39:59
if you want to going forward. So those are my thoughts,
40:03
Darren. Isn't it?
40:04
He summed it up perfectly. I mean, it's a great way to do
40:07
it. I mean, especially college
40:08
football season. You know what, when Week 0 rolls
40:11
around, after Week 3 is done, wake up Sunday morning and see
40:15
where you're at. Are you ahead?
40:16
Are you behind? Pete also touched on keeping
40:19
that unit amount the same. I agree with that totally.
40:24
We do that. But maybe you lost a little more
40:27
in those first four weeks than you thought.
40:28
Say you were betting 4% of your bankroll, maybe for a week, drop
40:31
it down to 3%. Don't increase it to try and get
40:33
it back. Maybe you just feel like
40:35
whatever you're looking at, it's just not the stats that you feel
40:38
like you should be looking at. But we're not against toning it
40:42
back a percent for like a week or so.
40:44
But then you're not going to lose every single week.
40:47
But again, don't, don't chase and feel like, oh, this is the
40:50
week I'm getting it back because I guarantee you that's a week
40:52
you will not get it back. So stay steady with your units
40:55
like pizza, maybe back a touch for one week if that bankroll is
40:59
is taking a beating after the first four weeks.
41:01
But yes, every 30 days, give it a look, See what kind of bet
41:05
you're winning. More importantly, see what kind
41:06
of bet you're losing and then avoid those as you start that
41:09
second 30 days. Right.
41:11
Evaluate every 30 days. Look for ways to get free money
41:15
and if you need help, get it. You didn't put watch our show in
41:19
there 'cause I mean, I. Feel like our show, you know,
41:22
always be targeting winners? Kind of like the name implies,
41:27
you know, kind of what we're trying to do.
41:31
Here, right? So track everything, stay
41:33
disciplined. Any final thoughts guys?
41:36
Yeah, figure out which one of the three of us is having a good
41:38
year and take those bets. Yeah, I usually have.
41:41
So that would be Pete. So that would be and.
41:43
That was Darren. That was Darren this year.
41:46
Yeah, he was the year before Pete was crushing it in 2024.
41:53
All right, guys. Tim, I guess it means it's your
41:55
year, so don't listen to Pete. It's your time.
41:58
Yeah, until November. Well, it came religiously.
42:02
Yeah. Especially when Maxim rolls
42:04
appeals. Oh yeah, well, we got to love
42:06
the Mac. All right, so a reminder on the
42:08
19th, we have our national championship show coming up.
42:13
That'll be at 7:00 PM on YouTube.
42:15
Thank you for watching. Please like and subscribe and
42:19
all that stuff. We really appreciate it.
42:22
Hope you enjoyed listening. Thank you for listening and
42:24
we'll catch you on the 19th.