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Democrats Debate Biden's Future · Pod Save America

0:00
Speaker 1: Thank you.
0:20
Speaker 2: Welcome to Pond Save America.
0:21
Speaker 3: I'm John Lovett. I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:23
Speaker 2: It has been a rough couple of shifts in the
0:25
Speaker 2: democracy minds as the Supreme Court issues ruling after ruling,
0:29
Speaker 2: slashing at the basic workings of our institutions, our ability
0:32
Speaker 2: to regulate pollution, punish corruption, and hold presidents accountable to
0:35
Speaker 2: the law. Democrats continue to debate Joe Biden's fitness to
0:38
Speaker 2: be our representative in the fight to protect democracy this fall.
0:44
Speaker 2: I am recording this from home. because I got COVID
0:47
Speaker 2: on the road. John's on vacation, lucky him. I'm here
0:49
Speaker 2: with Dan and Tommy. It is two o'clock Pacific on Tuesday.
0:54
Speaker 2: We're timestamping it because this debate seems to be moving
0:58
Speaker 2: pretty quickly. A lot of churn since we last talked
1:00
Speaker 2: about this in Boston. We're gonna get to as much
1:03
Speaker 2: of it as we can, but the gist is, as
1:06
Speaker 2: of now, the Biden campaign is projecting confidence that Biden
1:09
Speaker 2: will remain the nominee. They put out a one-minute ad
1:12
Speaker 2: that's basically just a cut-down version of the speech we
1:14
Speaker 2: talked about in Boston. The campaign is also pointing out
1:17
Speaker 2: that they pulled in $ 127 million in June, including $ 38
1:21
Speaker 2: million in the days after the debate. In a memo
1:24
Speaker 2: on Monday, the campaign shared internal polling to claim that
1:27
Speaker 2: Biden wasn't hurt by the debate. Though in a call
1:29
Speaker 2: with donors later, the campaign also said they were seeing
1:32
Speaker 2: an impact in the polling because of the debate. At first,
1:35
Speaker 2: the dynamic had been one in which elected Democrats were
1:38
Speaker 2: bravely offering anonymous hand-wringing and then on-the-record displays of support.
1:43
Speaker 2: But by Tuesday, that was shifting. Representative Lloyd Doggett from
1:47
Speaker 2: Austin became the first sitting Democrat to call on Biden
1:50
Speaker 2: to withdraw from the race. Former Congressman Tim Ryan said
1:53
Speaker 2: it should be Harris at the top of the ticket.
1:55
Speaker 2: We've also heard concerns about Biden's ability from Democrats, including
1:58
Speaker 2: Sheldon Whitehouse and Nancy Pelosi.
2:00
Speaker 4: Well, I think people want to make sure that this
2:02
Speaker 4: is a campaign that's ready to go and win, that
2:05
Speaker 4: the president and his team are being candid with us
2:08
Speaker 4: about his condition, that this was a real anomaly and
2:12
Speaker 4: not just the way he is these days, and that
2:15
Speaker 4: you know, they've got a plan to win.
2:17
Speaker 5: Now, again, I think it's a legitimate question to say,
2:22
Speaker 5: is this an episode or is this a condition? And
2:25
Speaker 5: so when people ask that question, it's completely legitimate of
2:29
Speaker 5: both candidates.
2:30
Speaker 2: Representative James Clyburn, who has been a steadfast Biden ally,
2:34
Speaker 2: said on MSNBC that he would support Vice President Harris
2:38
Speaker 2: if Biden stepped aside.
2:39
Speaker 5: This party should not in any way do anything to
2:44
Speaker 5: work around Ms.
2:46
Speaker 4: Harris. We should do everything we can to bolster her,
2:51
Speaker 4: whether it's in second place or at the top of
2:53
Speaker 4: the ticket.
2:54
Speaker 2: He was, for the record, very clear that he still
2:56
Speaker 2: supports a Biden-Harris ticket. According to the Washington Post, Joe
2:59
Speaker 2: Manchin had planned to break with Biden over the weekend,
3:02
Speaker 2: but was talked down by party leaders, even though he's
3:04
Speaker 2: not in the party anymore. Let's take this in pieces. First,
3:07
Speaker 2: let's talk about the impact of the debate. Dan, at first,
3:10
Speaker 2: the polling was on the one hand, seemed to show
3:12
Speaker 2: that the debate confirmed voters' biggest concern about Biden, and
3:16
Speaker 2: in a dramatic way, over two-thirds questioning his fitness and acuity.
3:19
Speaker 2: But on the other hand, there, A, wasn't much of
3:21
Speaker 2: an impact on the overall head-to-head, and B, Biden still
3:24
Speaker 2: performed as well, or I should say as poorly as
3:27
Speaker 2: other Democrats. That seemed to begin to shift in what
3:31
Speaker 2: was coming out today. Dan, what numbers have jumped out
3:34
Speaker 2: at you?
3:34
Speaker 4: Sure.
3:34
Speaker 3: You're right.
3:35
Speaker 6: In the immediate aftermath, there was very clear evidence that
3:38
Speaker 6: undecided voters were very unhappy with Biden's performance. They were
3:41
Speaker 6: concerned by it, but it didn't move them to Trump.
3:43
Speaker 6: And so in some of these initial polls, especially these
3:45
Speaker 6: very quick snap online polls, showed little movement. The Biden campaign,
3:50
Speaker 6: as you mentioned, released a battleground states poll, which showed
3:53
Speaker 6: very little change. It's worth noting that in all of
3:54
Speaker 6: these polls, Biden was behind before the debate and behind
3:58
Speaker 6: after the debate. Over the last 36 hours, we've seen
4:01
Speaker 6: more polls. There was a St. Anselm poll of New Hampshire,
4:05
Speaker 6: a state Biden won by seven points. It showed him
4:06
Speaker 6: down two. There was a poll that had him down
4:09
Speaker 6: in Pennsylvania by four. And then CNN on Tuesday morning
4:12
Speaker 6: had a poll that showed Trump with a six-point lead,
4:15
Speaker 6: which was a dramatic increase from their most recent poll.
4:18
Speaker 6: All of these polls show increases in the already high
4:22
Speaker 6: number of Americans who are concerned about Biden's age. But
4:24
Speaker 6: the most impactful poll is a private poll from Open Labs,
4:28
Speaker 6: which is a Democratic research outfit started by former alumni
4:32
Speaker 6: of the Obama 2012 campaign. They work with a lot
4:35
Speaker 6: of the most important super PACs in campaigns. This poll
4:37
Speaker 6: was making the rounds privately. It was a poll conducted
4:40
Speaker 6: over the weekend. And that poll showed a drop for
4:43
Speaker 6: Biden in the head-to-head. It showed him trailing in all
4:47
Speaker 6: of the battleground states, in some cases by large margins,
4:50
Speaker 6: including by seven points in Pennsylvania, and with close races
4:53
Speaker 6: in states like New Hampshire and Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico.
4:57
Speaker 6: This was the first poll that was done by someone
4:59
Speaker 6: that everyone in the Democratic Party respects. And I had
5:03
Speaker 6: this poll sent to me by four political operatives this
5:05
Speaker 6: morning before Peter Hamby, our friend.
5:07
Speaker 3: At Puck, actually published the poll.
5:10
Speaker 6: And I think that poll is the one that has
5:12
Speaker 6: shaken Democrats the most because it suggests that the bottom
5:17
Speaker 6: may be falling out. Now, the important caveat here is
5:19
Speaker 6: that polling is very noisy in the aftermath of a
5:22
Speaker 6: giant event, but you're starting to see the numbers that
5:26
Speaker 6: are causing, those numbers are what are causing people to
5:29
Speaker 6: be more concerned publicly than they were 48 hours ago.
5:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, one thing that jumped out is that
5:37
Speaker 2: the swing state polls, the battleground polls may be showing
5:40
Speaker 2: more of an impact on in part because those are
5:43
Speaker 2: states where voters are paying closer attention. Tommy, what jumped
5:47
Speaker 2: out at you about any of the polls that have
5:50
Speaker 2: been coming out in the last couple of hours?
5:51
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I found the Open Labs poll to
5:53
Speaker 7: be pretty concerning. I mean, basically, Biden's vote share has
5:55
Speaker 7: dropped about two points in all the key states since
5:58
Speaker 7: the debate. I mean, Dan mentioned he went from down
6:00
Speaker 7: five to down seven in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, went
6:03
Speaker 7: from down two to down four in Wisconsin. Minnesota, Virginia
6:06
Speaker 7: being tied is very frightening. And then, you know, states
6:10
Speaker 7: that were We've been talked about as either reach states
6:13
Speaker 7: or we got him in 2020, like North Carolina, Georgia,
6:17
Speaker 7: and Arizona. He's down like 10 points. So, I mean,
6:19
Speaker 7: that is a huge deficit. And then you've got about
6:22
Speaker 7: 70% of voters concerned about Biden's age on his ability
6:25
Speaker 7: to do the job. 40% of Biden 2020 voters now
6:29
Speaker 7: think he should end his campaign. That is a huge
6:32
Speaker 7: shift from May when only 25% of voters thought he
6:35
Speaker 7: should step aside. So, yeah, I mean, you know, it's
6:38
Speaker 7: a pretty.
6:41
Speaker 7: Significant shift away from President Biden in these numbers.
6:45
Speaker 2: So let's talk about how Biden is dealing with the fallout.
6:50
Speaker 2: We know Biden met with family over the weekend at
6:52
Speaker 2: Camp David and that they expressed support for staying in
6:55
Speaker 2: the race. There was this deeply troubling reporting in The
6:58
Speaker 2: Times over the weekend said that Mr. Biden had been
7:00
Speaker 2: soliciting ideas from advisers about how to proceed and his
7:03
Speaker 2: staff had been discussing whether he should hold a news
7:05
Speaker 2: conference or sit for interviews to defend himself and change
7:08
Speaker 2: the narrative. but nothing had been decided yet. One of
7:11
Speaker 2: the strongest voices employing Mr. Biden to resist pressure to
7:14
Speaker 2: drop out was his son, Hunter Biden, whom the president
7:17
Speaker 2: has long leaned on for advice. Also, NBC reported today
7:19
Speaker 2: that Hunter had been joining meetings at the White House,
7:22
Speaker 2: which I did not know how to make sense of.
7:24
Speaker 2: We learned a few hours ago that Joe Biden is
7:26
Speaker 2: sitting down for an interview Friday with George Stephanopoulos that
7:29
Speaker 2: will begin airing that evening. Tommy, if you were asked
7:33
Speaker 2: what Biden should do right now to put this post-debate
7:35
Speaker 2: frenzy to rest, Would it be to take a couple
7:38
Speaker 2: days of R & R, maybe head to Madison, then
7:41
Speaker 2: sit down for an interview? Like, shouldn't Biden be out
7:44
Speaker 2: there every day? Yeah, I think, you know, there's quite
7:47
Speaker 2: a vacuum out there. I mean, just for context, at
7:50
Speaker 2: this point in the campaign in 2012, Obama was kicking
7:53
Speaker 2: off a two-day bus tour across Ohio and Pennsylvania. And
7:56
Speaker 2: that was before, not after, his disastrous debate.
8:00
Speaker 3: Performance, right?
8:01
Speaker 7: This is just kind of normal campaigning. So I think
8:04
Speaker 7: if Biden wants to stay in this race, he needs
8:05
Speaker 7: to urgently reset the narrative in some way. That could
8:08
Speaker 7: be a big interview with 60 Minutes is an idea
8:11
Speaker 7: that's been floated, an hour-long press conference, a bunch of
8:14
Speaker 7: town hall meetings with voters. None of those things will
8:18
Speaker 7: fix the problem in and of themselves, but it can
8:20
Speaker 7: begin a process of showing voters that the questions they
8:25
Speaker 7: had on Thursday night can be answered, that that was
8:28
Speaker 7: an aberration and not the norm. But at the moment,
8:31
Speaker 7: President Biden seems to be doing, you know, a couple rallies,
8:33
Speaker 7: a couple of fundraisers where he's speaking out for teleprompters.
8:36
Speaker 7: I don't think that's going to cut it. He also
8:38
Speaker 7: needs to be calling Democrats in Congress, calling governors who
8:41
Speaker 7: are really worried about the state of the race. It
8:43
Speaker 7: doesn't sound like he's doing that. And again, just to
8:46
Speaker 7: this family meeting over the weekend, like apparently there was
8:48
Speaker 7: a preplanned trip to Camp David with the family. During
8:52
Speaker 7: that trip, they talked about the state of the race.
8:54
Speaker 7: That makes sense. You know, obviously, you know, you have
8:57
Speaker 7: to have a conversation with the people closest to you
8:59
Speaker 7: at a time like this. But I do think it's
9:00
Speaker 7: important to say that for candidates, deciding to run is
9:06
Speaker 7: a family decision because if you run for president, your
9:09
Speaker 7: whole family gets dragged into it against their will, basically,
9:12
Speaker 7: or you become part of the political fodder. But I
9:14
Speaker 7: think Biden's choice right now is not about him. It's
9:17
Speaker 7: not about his family. It's not about his staff. It's
9:19
Speaker 7: about all of us and the future of the country
9:22
Speaker 7: in a race where he has said that the future
9:24
Speaker 7: of American democracy is at stake. So I just hope
9:27
Speaker 7: that he's getting blunt feedback on how things are going,
9:31
Speaker 7: what Thursday looked like from people who aren't, you know,
9:34
Speaker 7: kind of personally invested in his future.
9:37
Speaker 3: And generally, like the people I feel.
9:40
Speaker 7: For the most right now are his campaign staffers because
9:43
Speaker 7: they've been working their asses off for months, if not years.
9:46
Speaker 7: They've got no choice but to like soldier on in
9:49
Speaker 7: this moment. But like 99% of them are not with
9:52
Speaker 7: Joe Biden assessing the situation, offering advice for what to
9:57
Speaker 7: do next. And so you're just kind of in this
9:59
Speaker 7: pending relationship So it's it's tough, man. This is a
10:02
Speaker 7: tough one.
10:03
Speaker 4: Yeah.
10:04
Speaker 2: It's also like I saw, I think, Chris Coons talking
10:06
Speaker 2: to Jake Tapper and all these surrogates are going out
10:09
Speaker 2: there on Biden's behalf. And then Jake turns to Chris
10:12
Speaker 2: Coons and said, OK, then where is he? Right. Like
10:15
Speaker 2: it's not just that he's failing to answer the concerns
10:18
Speaker 2: people have. He is lending credence to the concerns people
10:21
Speaker 2: have by not being out there because just by just
10:25
Speaker 2: inherent in the fact that this is even a debate
10:26
Speaker 2: at all tells us that there are concerns around Joe
10:29
Speaker 2: Biden that putting him out there for an hour long interview,
10:32
Speaker 2: putting him out there for a press conference, putting him
10:34
Speaker 2: out there in these unscripted environments are ones in which
10:37
Speaker 2: they're not sure if it's worth the risk. But if
10:40
Speaker 2: they felt confident that Joe Biden would be able to
10:42
Speaker 2: assuage these doubts, he would have been out there already.
10:45
Speaker 2: He should just be in front of the cameras for
10:47
Speaker 2: two hours. And when you put that question to a surrogate,
10:49
Speaker 2: even his best surrogates, they're really out there without much
10:52
Speaker 2: to say. So Dan, were you surprised to find out
10:56
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden hasn't reached out to senior Democrats and
11:00
Speaker 2: senior Democrats have been trying to reach Joe Biden and
11:03
Speaker 2: have been unable to do it?
11:04
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's all very concerning. Politically and otherwise, right? Tommy
11:11
Speaker 6: is right that what you would do in a normal
11:13
Speaker 6: world after a bad debate– like it's too much to
11:15
Speaker 6: ask any candidate after a bad debate to do all
11:18
Speaker 6: the morning shows the next day.
11:19
Speaker 3: Right.
11:19
Speaker 6: But you would have done a huge press conference. You
11:21
Speaker 6: would have done a bunch of interviews. At bare minimum,
11:25
Speaker 6: you would have sat there and said debate was Thursday.
11:28
Speaker 3: That was bad.
11:30
Speaker 6: Maybe Friday night, I'll get MSNBC to bring Rachel Maddow
11:34
Speaker 6: in and we'll do that interview. You would do one
11:36
Speaker 6: high-profile thing right off the bat. You would do a
11:38
Speaker 6: Sunday show that would record on Friday. You would flood
11:41
Speaker 6: the zone with evidence counter to what people saw in
11:45
Speaker 6: the debate. And there are a couple of theories as
11:48
Speaker 6: to why the Biden campaign has not done that. One
11:50
Speaker 6: is that they do not have confidence in him to
11:54
Speaker 6: do it. That is incredibly alarming. And that does fit
11:57
Speaker 6: with Right. Right.
11:59
Speaker 4: Right.
12:16
Speaker 6: The thing that I would like to see more reporting
12:18
Speaker 6: on what calls Biden has made or not made, because
12:21
Speaker 6: there's nothing less like Joe Biden than not burning up
12:24
Speaker 6: the phones with congressional leaders to do something, right? Like
12:28
Speaker 6: that to me, it's very strange. I think the other
12:30
Speaker 6: thing here is I think the White House and the
12:32
Speaker 6: Biden campaign were knocked on their ass by this. Understandably so, right?
12:36
Speaker 6: This is not what they expected that happened. It had
12:39
Speaker 6: like their worst nightmare unfolded before their eyes. for the
12:42
Speaker 6: 50 million people, this campaign that they have fought so
12:45
Speaker 6: hard to try to steer to victory was collapsing before them.
12:49
Speaker 6: And it seems like, you know, maybe Biden has, you know,
12:52
Speaker 6: he's spending time with his family, not advisors or whatever
12:54
Speaker 6: that is, but there's not a, like they have, they
12:57
Speaker 6: have marshaled a very impressive staff level political outreach effort
13:00
Speaker 6: to donors, to congressional leaders, all of that. But it's just,
13:03
Speaker 6: there doesn't seem to be a broader strategy here that
13:06
Speaker 6: includes the president to be engaged in that. And that
13:09
Speaker 6: I think is fueling some of these concerns, right? This is,
13:12
Speaker 6: It's one thing for Nancy Pelosi to be very supportive
13:14
Speaker 6: of Joe Biden on Friday morning, but it's been 96
13:17
Speaker 6: hours since then and she hasn't heard from him. That's
13:19
Speaker 6: going to raise some concerns when you put it in
13:21
Speaker 6: the context of the bad polling as well.
13:23
Speaker 2: It was not surprising to see Nancy Pelosi and Clyburn
13:28
Speaker 2: out there defending Joe Biden, trying to put it to rest.
13:31
Speaker 2: It was surprising to see in a matter of a
13:35
Speaker 2: few days to have Nancy Pelosi entertaining the debate, to
13:38
Speaker 2: have Clyburn entertaining what would happen if Joe Biden stepped aside.
13:43
Speaker 2: You know, look, I feel like the story has, it's
13:46
Speaker 2: almost not even worth talking about. But one criticism you've seen,
13:51
Speaker 2: and not just from the Biden campaign, but from some
13:53
Speaker 2: of Biden's biggest supporters online, is that this is a
13:56
Speaker 2: media-driven story, that the fallout from the debate has been
14:00
Speaker 2: far worse than the debate itself, that Democratic hand-wringing has
14:03
Speaker 2: done more damage than the actual 90 minutes itself. Dan,
14:09
Speaker 2: do you think there's Can you find a way to
14:11
Speaker 2: see any truth in that? What do you think?
14:14
Speaker 3: No, I don't.
14:15
Speaker 6: Look, 50 million people watched that debate. 80 million people
14:18
Speaker 6: if you count all the people online. Three times that
14:21
Speaker 6: if you're thinking about all the clips that have been
14:24
Speaker 6: bouncing around TikTok and Instagram. So the amount of like,
14:27
Speaker 6: oh no, the 500,000 people who watched midday CNN, that's
14:31
Speaker 6: a drop in the bucket. Look, this debate is unhelpful
14:34
Speaker 6: for Biden, obviously. We are having a conversation about his
14:38
Speaker 6: greatest weakness that is happening loudly at the exact time
14:42
Speaker 6: when we need people to be focusing on Donald Trump.
14:45
Speaker 6: We can talk about why they did this, but they
14:47
Speaker 6: demanded this debate on this timeline for the specific purpose
14:50
Speaker 6: of shifting this race from a referendum to a choice.
14:53
Speaker 6: And because of the president's performance, it has gone the
14:55
Speaker 6: exact opposite way. It's become even more of a referendum,
14:58
Speaker 6: not just on Joe Biden's record, but on Joe Biden's fitness.
15:01
Speaker 6: And that is the last thing they possibly wanted. So
15:04
Speaker 6: this is not a media-driven story. This is a real conversation.
15:06
Speaker 6: And if you talk to any voters, and I've talked
15:08
Speaker 6: to some people who have been watching focus groups over
15:10
Speaker 6: the last few days, this is the conversation that voters
15:13
Speaker 6: are having. And they've actually been having it for two
15:15
Speaker 6: years now. It's just sort of the media is catching
15:17
Speaker 6: up to it.
15:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, just two quick things.
15:21
Speaker 7: One, our producer David just sent around an article where
15:24
Speaker 7: apparently Karine Jean-Pierre said that President Biden is going to
15:27
Speaker 7: meet with congressional leaders on Wednesday to So it sounds like,
15:30
Speaker 7: you know, these things are now starting to happen. I
15:33
Speaker 7: still think it's weird that it's taken this long, but
15:35
Speaker 7: it's just worth updating folks. But to your question, Lovett,
15:38
Speaker 7: I do think this is what's like frustrating me a
15:40
Speaker 7: little bit with some of the spin you're seeing out
15:43
Speaker 7: of the Biden campaign, which is the suggestion that this
15:46
Speaker 7: is just a bunch of weak, you know, you know,
15:50
Speaker 7: squishy Beltway insiders bedwetting or whatever the, you know, the
15:56
Speaker 7: phrase might be about the campaign. I think it's actually
15:59
Speaker 7: the opposite. I think this is a problem that exists
16:02
Speaker 7: out in the world where you have 70 percent of
16:04
Speaker 7: voters who already had concerns about President Biden's age and
16:07
Speaker 7: they saw a debate performance that exacerbated those concerns. So
16:11
Speaker 7: I get, you know, look, you can spin and push
16:12
Speaker 7: back and sort of like criticize the press and pundits. And,
16:15
Speaker 7: you know, there's, I guess, some value in that to
16:18
Speaker 7: kind of, you know, like getting everybody fired up internally.
16:22
Speaker 7: But I don't actually think it's solving the problem.
16:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think that's right. I also I also
16:27
Speaker 2: think it's opposite. to a media-driven story in another way,
16:31
Speaker 2: in that I think one of the reasons it has
16:34
Speaker 2: come to such a head after the debate is that
16:36
Speaker 2: a lot of people who advocate for Joe Biden, I
16:39
Speaker 2: include myself in this, had concerns about Joe Biden's age
16:43
Speaker 2: and whether it would be a giant factor in his reelection,
16:49
Speaker 2: felt like, well, he is the nominee. And while there
16:53
Speaker 2: may be concerns about his age in terms of how
16:56
Speaker 2: he can message, how he can how we can campaign
16:58
Speaker 2: as a candidate, those are obviously far less important than
17:03
Speaker 2: the concerns we have about Donald Trump's fitness. And so
17:08
Speaker 2: we're going to go to battle for Joe Biden and
17:10
Speaker 2: we're going to put those concerns aside because there's not
17:11
Speaker 2: much we can do about them anymore. But the debate,
17:14
Speaker 2: I think, was such a turning point because it forced
17:18
Speaker 2: us to reckon with those concerns that we hadn't been voicing,
17:22
Speaker 2: either because we weren't honest with ourselves or because we
17:24
Speaker 2: didn't view it as having much value. So hearing that like, oh,
17:29
Speaker 2: like this is people not being tough enough or not
17:32
Speaker 2: being willing to be loyal or not being, I don't know,
17:34
Speaker 2: good enough soldiers, I think is unfair to the people
17:37
Speaker 2: that desperately want Joe Biden to succeed, right? Or up
17:40
Speaker 2: until this debate had been willing to believe that the
17:42
Speaker 2: risks posed by Joe Biden's age were less than the
17:45
Speaker 2: risks posed by seeking another path, finding another nominee, raising
17:49
Speaker 2: those concerns in the run-up to the convention.
17:52
Speaker 6: Look, as you say, this story is shifting very quickly, right?
17:55
Speaker 6: And what It's true now. It may not be true
17:57
Speaker 6: six hours from now, a day from now, whatever else.
18:00
Speaker 6: But it is possible to have this conversation in this moment.
18:05
Speaker 6: And it still is true that the most likely scenario
18:07
Speaker 6: is Joe Biden's going to still be our nominee, right?
18:10
Speaker 6: No one can force him to leave.
18:12
Speaker 3: It's up to him. He seems very committed to it.
18:15
Speaker 6: And when that happens, we are all going to stop
18:17
Speaker 6: having this conversation and we're going to put on our
18:20
Speaker 6: walking shoes and whatever else. We're going to go work
18:23
Speaker 6: our ass off for Joe Biden. That's the most important
18:24
Speaker 6: thing here because Some of the conversation is that by
18:27
Speaker 6: having this conversation, you're abandoning Joe Biden. We heard that
18:29
Speaker 6: a lot after our podcast the other day. Joe Biden
18:32
Speaker 6: never abandoned us. You guys abandoned Joe Biden. And no
18:34
Speaker 6: one's abandoning Joe Biden, right? It's just a conversation in
18:37
Speaker 6: good faith between people who all agree on both sides
18:41
Speaker 6: that beating Donald Trump is the most important thing possible.
18:44
Speaker 7: Yeah, because we're a part of a political party, not
18:46
Speaker 7: a cult, which is what the Republicans are in. We
18:48
Speaker 7: talk about our problems and our differences, and we try
18:50
Speaker 7: to work them out, and then we proceed ahead.
18:52
Speaker 8: Right.
18:52
Speaker 2: It's like my loyalty to Joe Biden is 100% conditional.
18:58
Speaker 2: He is a representative of us and not the other
19:01
Speaker 2: way around. So Republicans... have obviously been enjoying the fallout
19:17
Speaker 2: from this debate immensely. They're claiming down-ballot candidates know Biden
19:22
Speaker 2: isn't up for the job and are protecting him anyways.
19:24
Speaker 2: There was this ad from David McCormick in the Pennsylvania
19:27
Speaker 2: Senate race. He's challenging Senator Bob Casey.
19:30
Speaker 8: The worst debate I've ever seen in my entire life.
19:32
Speaker 2: No two ways about it.
19:33
Speaker 8: That was not a good debate for Joe Biden.
19:34
Speaker 6: Panic, panic.
19:35
Speaker 1: Panic.
19:35
Speaker 2: God, just panic. It's pain.
19:37
Speaker 3: Oh my God, oh my God, oh my God. So
19:39
Speaker 3: what do we.
19:39
Speaker 5: Do about this?
19:40
Speaker 3: Everything we have to do is.
19:43
Speaker 8: What would you have Joe Biden do to make the
19:45
Speaker 8: case that he's not an elderly, well-meaning gentleman?
19:48
Speaker 3: People are going to.
19:48
Speaker 4: See it in the campaign. No question he's prepared to
19:51
Speaker 4: do this.
19:51
Speaker 2: Job today and would be where he reelected.
19:54
Speaker 1: One of my best buddies, one of my closest friends,
19:57
Speaker 1: Bobby Casey.
19:58
Speaker 2: I have a lot of confidence in his leadership. I
20:00
Speaker 2: have a lot of confidence in his leadership.
20:02
Speaker 1: No question he's prepared to do this job today.
20:05
Speaker 2: So a tough ad about about Bob Casey. You may
20:09
Speaker 2: have noticed that John makes a cameo in that ad.
20:13
Speaker 2: Playbook reports this morning that elected Dems across the country
20:15
Speaker 2: are doing what great leaders always do, waiting to see
20:18
Speaker 2: polls before potentially becoming more vocal. Dan, how much fallout
20:23
Speaker 2: do you think the debate could have in House and
20:25
Speaker 2: Senate and other down-ball races?
20:27
Speaker 6: I mean, it could have tremendous fallout. I mean, Senate
20:30
Speaker 6: Democrats are, particularly incumbent Senate Democrats, are outperforming Joe Biden by,
20:35
Speaker 6: in many cases, 7 to 10 points. But what's really
20:38
Speaker 6: important about that is in many of those cases, their
20:42
Speaker 6: top line number is not much higher than Biden's. It's
20:46
Speaker 6: that the people they are running against are less well-known
20:48
Speaker 6: and those people are running behind Trump. So it's unlikely
20:52
Speaker 6: Bob Casey is going to win Pennsylvania by six points, right?
20:54
Speaker 3: Or eight points.
20:55
Speaker 6: These will end up being very close races. And if
20:57
Speaker 6: people are not turning out because they are disenchanted by
21:01
Speaker 6: Joe Biden, they're concerned about Joe Biden, that's going to
21:03
Speaker 6: affect Bob Casey, right? That's going to affect Jackie Rosen
21:07
Speaker 6: or Tammy Baldwin or any of those other candidates. And so, yeah,
21:10
Speaker 6: it's going to be very concerning. And the playbook report here,
21:13
Speaker 6: I think, is something that we talked about at our
21:15
Speaker 6: Boston show, which is ultimately Chuck Schumer wants to stay
21:18
Speaker 6: the majority leader and Hakeem Jeffries wants to be speaker.
21:21
Speaker 6: And if and when it seems like Joe Biden staying
21:23
Speaker 6: in this race puts those things at existential risk, that's
21:27
Speaker 6: when they will begin to begin making moves or speaking
21:30
Speaker 6: more publicly or trying to have private conversations with Biden
21:33
Speaker 6: to urge them out. I think some of what we're
21:35
Speaker 6: seeing today is just if you do the pure math
21:37
Speaker 6: on timing, people are starting to get their polls back now.
21:40
Speaker 6: But then we're going to– the thing that's weird is
21:41
Speaker 6: we have the 4th of July coming up, which people
21:43
Speaker 6: don't poll over. So we're going to have a little
21:45
Speaker 6: bit of a break and then come back with even
21:46
Speaker 6: more polling next week.
21:48
Speaker 2: Yeah.
21:49
Speaker 7: I love the ads.
21:50
Speaker 2: It's actually pretty stupid. It's quite a bank shot, right?
21:52
Speaker 2: Like you're going to– oh, you were going to vote
21:54
Speaker 2: for Bob Casey, but then you found out he endorsed
21:56
Speaker 2: Joe Biden even though everyone knew Joe Biden was old.
21:59
Speaker 2: I think it's like– I don't know. I don't know
22:00
Speaker 2: who that ad is for exactly other than for– Yeah,
22:03
Speaker 2: I think it's a dumb message. And I think it's
22:04
Speaker 2: about being in the news cycle. I think it's more
22:07
Speaker 2: about maybe fundraising or just being in the conversation than
22:10
Speaker 2: it is about actually reaching anybody. But nevertheless, just before
22:14
Speaker 2: we recorded this, we learned that Tammy Baldwin will not
22:16
Speaker 2: be campaigning with Joe Biden when he's in Madison on Friday. Tommy,
22:21
Speaker 2: if you were advising a Democratic Senate candidate trying to
22:25
Speaker 2: drive your message over the next few days and are
22:28
Speaker 2: getting question after question about Joe Biden's debate performance, whether
22:31
Speaker 2: he should be the candidate what would you be telling
22:33
Speaker 2: them to do?
22:34
Speaker 7: I mean, it kind of depends on your goal. If
22:36
Speaker 7: your goal is do no harm in way to beat,
22:39
Speaker 7: like I would formulate kind of a holding statement that
22:41
Speaker 7: describes reality as it is, but ducks the question like
22:45
Speaker 7: Joe Biden's been a great president. He did X, Y,
22:47
Speaker 7: and Z. He's a nominee. I expect that will remain
22:49
Speaker 7: the case, but it's up to him. I think the
22:52
Speaker 7: reason I would suggest that kind of answer is because
22:55
Speaker 7: the story is moving really fast, like we said, and
22:57
Speaker 7: You don't want to be the person who knifes Joe
22:59
Speaker 7: Biden first, but you also don't want to sound silly
23:02
Speaker 7: if things are different in a week or two. Of course,
23:05
Speaker 7: like if your gold is different, if you view Biden
23:08
Speaker 7: as a political liability for some reason and you want
23:11
Speaker 7: to give him a push, you could do so there.
23:14
Speaker 7: But that's a big decision and a big step that
23:17
Speaker 7: I think is very likely to boomerang on candidates, which
23:19
Speaker 7: is why you don't see many elected officials doing it.
23:22
Speaker 6: I mean, I think Senate Democrats and House Democrats are
23:25
Speaker 6: just chill the fuck out. Timmy Baldwin probably should have
23:27
Speaker 6: gone to that event. No one is going to begrudge
23:30
Speaker 6: her for being at a rally with Joe Biden in
23:34
Speaker 6: the beginning of July.
23:35
Speaker 3: Because one of two things is going to happen.
23:36
Speaker 6: Either Joe Biden is going to step aside, which I
23:39
Speaker 6: want to stipulate again, it's a highly unlikely scenario, and
23:41
Speaker 6: no one's going to remember she was at that rally,
23:43
Speaker 6: or he's going to be the nominee and she's going
23:45
Speaker 6: to have to run with him. So it's just like,
23:47
Speaker 6: you're just creating this narrative that's just going to anger
23:49
Speaker 6: people on both sides by doing this. This is the
23:52
Speaker 6: most classic consultant advice to candidates in tough races. Just
23:57
Speaker 6: chill out.
23:58
Speaker 3: Here's one thing you shouldn't do.
24:00
Speaker 6: Jared Golden, who is the congressman running in the 2nd
24:03
Speaker 6: District of Maine, which is a very Trumpy district, wrote
24:05
Speaker 6: an op-ed in the local paper saying that he wasn't
24:07
Speaker 6: surprised by the debate because he knew Donald Trump was
24:09
Speaker 6: always going to win and he's cool with that. One
24:12
Speaker 6: of the weirdest....
24:15
Speaker 2: What the fuck is that guy doing? It was really baffling.
24:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, because he's a smart guy who is not like
24:21
Speaker 6: a Joe Manchin type punch the party in the face
24:24
Speaker 6: to win. He has to take some hard votes and
24:26
Speaker 6: he has to go to the party on some tough issues.
24:28
Speaker 3: But that was a crazy, crazy move.
24:30
Speaker 7: Candidates always get too cute with this stuff. And it's
24:33
Speaker 7: so stupid. I remember back in 2006, there was a
24:36
Speaker 7: guy named Tom Keene Jr. who was running for Senate,
24:40
Speaker 7: I believe, in New Jersey. Dick Cheney hosted a fundraiser
24:43
Speaker 7: for him.
24:44
Speaker 3: And so Keene.
24:45
Speaker 7: figured out a way to leave late enough so that
24:47
Speaker 7: he arrived after Cheney had spoken and already left. And
24:50
Speaker 7: he thought that was going to somehow give him distance
24:53
Speaker 7: from a wildly unpopular vice president who seconds ago had
24:56
Speaker 7: been raising him money. It's like, no, it does not
24:59
Speaker 7: pass the smell test. Yeah, go to the event, carry
25:02
Speaker 7: on as is. It's not going to hurt you.
25:04
Speaker 3: I don't get it.
25:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't get it either. I mean, I would
25:06
Speaker 2: be like, I think like finding something to say about
25:10
Speaker 2: this without going too hard in either direction is one thing,
25:13
Speaker 2: but there's no reason to avoid an event with President Biden,
25:15
Speaker 2: who you support and believe has been an excellent president, right?
25:18
Speaker 2: Like that continues to be the case regardless. Okay, so
25:23
Speaker 2: what happens next? There is reporting from Bloomberg that the
25:28
Speaker 2: DNC is considering formally nominating Biden early as soon as
25:31
Speaker 2: the middle of this month, because that would put an
25:35
Speaker 2: end to speculation about whether or not Biden should be
25:37
Speaker 2: the nominee. So problem solved. I think that'll do it.
25:42
Speaker 2: I think that'll take care of it. Tommy, does that
25:44
Speaker 2: seem like a good idea to you?
25:45
Speaker 7: I think, I hope that they're knocking this idea down
25:49
Speaker 7: and saying this is not going to happen. I think
25:50
Speaker 7: moving up the timeline for the nomination without addressing people's
25:55
Speaker 7: concerns about what's going on post-debate is the worst possible idea.
25:59
Speaker 7: It's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. I think it
26:01
Speaker 7: would lead to a revolt from elected officials and party
26:05
Speaker 7: leaders because what possible reason could there be for doing this?
26:10
Speaker 7: It just doesn't make any sense.
26:12
Speaker 6: I think this is conflated. I have heard people knocking
26:14
Speaker 6: this down. And it's why I think why we haven't
26:16
Speaker 6: seen a bunch of follows on it. I think it's
26:19
Speaker 6: conflating two things. The desire for the very strong desire
26:23
Speaker 6: from the Biden folks who get this debate behind us,
26:26
Speaker 6: and the fact that the DNC believes it needs to
26:29
Speaker 6: formally nominate Joe Biden to before the first week in
26:32
Speaker 6: August when there was a ballot deadline in Ohio. Now,
26:35
Speaker 6: I've heard from some people who suggested that is a
26:36
Speaker 6: more even, you may not need to go this route
26:39
Speaker 6: to solve the ballot problem, but the virtual roll call
26:44
Speaker 6: of Biden was in the works to solve the Ohio
26:48
Speaker 6: ballot issue long before the debate happened.
26:51
Speaker 3: But I think that was August 7th, Dan, right?
26:53
Speaker 7: And I think the virtual roll call issue for Ohio,
26:56
Speaker 7: I always heard that was like an early August.
26:57
Speaker 6: And they said they were going to do it in
26:58
Speaker 6: the last week of July, was I think what was
27:00
Speaker 6: being talked about.
27:01
Speaker 2: Got it. So obviously a very sensitive aspect to this
27:04
Speaker 2: debate is that, so like for hyper engaged partisans like us,
27:09
Speaker 2: the focus has been on Joe Biden as a messenger,
27:11
Speaker 2: as a candidate, and what we'd like to see Biden
27:13
Speaker 2: do to address his ability to campaign, take the fight
27:15
Speaker 2: to Trump, make the best argument to persuade the country
27:19
Speaker 2: about the stakes in November. But polls show that what
27:21
Speaker 2: voters are concerned about is whether Biden can actually do
27:24
Speaker 2: the job if he's reelected, Today, there was a very
27:26
Speaker 2: tough story in The Times basically looking at that question
27:29
Speaker 2: and worries from those around Biden that while he has
27:31
Speaker 2: maintained a schedule, including international travel and meetings that would
27:35
Speaker 2: exhaust a 25-year-old, several, this is a quote, several current
27:39
Speaker 2: and former officials and others who encountered him behind closed
27:41
Speaker 2: doors noticed that he increasingly appears confused or listless or
27:45
Speaker 2: would lose the thread of conversations. The Times also reported
27:49
Speaker 2: that debate prep never started before 11 a.m. and Mr.
27:52
Speaker 2: Biden was given time for an afternoon nap each day
27:55
Speaker 2: Axios reported that from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., that
27:58
Speaker 2: is when Biden is dependably engaged. Tommy, what was your
28:01
Speaker 2: reaction to that Times story, especially the parts about his
28:06
Speaker 2: conversations with foreign leaders?
28:08
Speaker 7: I mean, I do think it's worth reading the story
28:10
Speaker 7: in full because I think it paints a picture of
28:12
Speaker 7: a president who can be completely on top of things
28:15
Speaker 7: until late in the night, like the evening when Iran
28:18
Speaker 7: launched that major missile attack on Israel, but then has
28:21
Speaker 7: moments that are concerning.
28:22
Speaker 3: For example.
28:24
Speaker 7: You know, there was a graph in there where the
28:28
Speaker 7: reporters said, quote, asked if one could imagine putting Mr.
28:31
Speaker 7: Biden in the same room with Vladimir Putin of Russia today.
28:33
Speaker 3: A former U.S.
28:34
Speaker 7: Official would help prepare for the trip, went silent for
28:37
Speaker 7: a while, then said, I just don't know. A former
28:39
Speaker 7: senior European official answered the same question by saying flatly no.
28:42
Speaker 7: So a lot of the story is about like kind
28:44
Speaker 7: of image and optics. But that graph advances the conversation
28:49
Speaker 7: from whether this is someone who has the stamina to
28:53
Speaker 7: run the campaign. to raising questions about Biden's ability to
28:57
Speaker 7: do the job, period. And I think that's just a
29:00
Speaker 7: different thing. And again, I have no idea who these
29:02
Speaker 7: sources are. They could be totally full of shit. They
29:05
Speaker 7: could be totally wrong. But it is all the more
29:07
Speaker 7: reason the Biden campaign needs to get out there and
29:11
Speaker 7: show and not tell that these concerns are wrong. Because
29:14
Speaker 7: I do think the story is getting away from the
29:17
Speaker 7: campaign pretty quickly. It's, again, not about DC insiders being
29:21
Speaker 7: spineless or whatever. This is you know, former staffers suggesting
29:26
Speaker 7: that they have concerns about, you know, kind of like
29:29
Speaker 7: the basics of the job. And, you know, like we
29:33
Speaker 7: need President Biden out there like pushing back hard.
29:36
Speaker 2: What we need is to have a debate about the
29:39
Speaker 2: stakes for the country. in November between Donald Trump and
29:42
Speaker 2: the Democrats, between the Republicans and the Democrats. That's what
29:44
Speaker 2: we need, a conversation that focuses completely on what is
29:49
Speaker 2: at stake. And if we can do that, we believe
29:52
Speaker 2: we can win. As long as we're debating whether or
29:54
Speaker 2: not Joe Biden is up to the task, we're not
29:56
Speaker 2: having the most important debate we need to have. Either
29:59
Speaker 2: Joe Biden can assuage those concerns or he can step aside.
30:02
Speaker 2: But right now, it's not only that he's not addressing
30:05
Speaker 2: the concerns that were raised in the debate. This has
30:07
Speaker 2: created a sort of storm, a frenzy that is making
30:10
Speaker 2: those concerns even worse day after day.
30:14
Speaker 6: What the debate proves, and I think, frankly, if we're
30:16
Speaker 6: being completely honest with ourselves, the idea that Joe Biden
30:18
Speaker 6: could run anything approximating a normal presidential campaign schedule while
30:24
Speaker 6: being president was always fanciful.
30:27
Speaker 2: Right.
30:27
Speaker 6: Like his schedule is– like Trump's schedule also is incredibly light.
30:31
Speaker 6: Like that's a very important point. He is golfing a lot.
30:33
Speaker 6: He's hanging out, watching a lot of cable TV at
30:36
Speaker 6: his beach house. He's not like– he's out there very much.
30:38
Speaker 6: He's spending a lot of time in court. He's not
30:39
Speaker 6: out there that often either. But the idea that Biden
30:42
Speaker 6: would do something like any– like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton,
30:45
Speaker 6: John Kerry, Mitt Romney, George W. Bush were doing rallies,
30:48
Speaker 6: several rallies a day.
30:49
Speaker 3: Obama did a 24-hour nonstop campaign.
30:52
Speaker 6: That you would be able, you do all these interviews,
30:54
Speaker 6: like that does not seem to be in the cards.
30:56
Speaker 6: And that is concerning from the mere fact that Joe
30:59
Speaker 6: Biden is behind in a very tough race. And so
31:02
Speaker 6: his ability to change that dynamic depends on his ability
31:05
Speaker 6: to communicate. Now on the question of whether he can
31:08
Speaker 6: do the job, I just, I think there's a couple
31:09
Speaker 6: of things that are just worth pushing back on.
31:10
Speaker 3: He's obviously 81 years old.
31:13
Speaker 6: We've worked there. We know how fucking hard that job is.
31:15
Speaker 6: He's always going to do it different than someone who is,
31:17
Speaker 6: like Trump, did not work particularly hard. 10 to 4
31:20
Speaker 6: was also his time. He had to get Fox and
31:22
Speaker 6: Friends in and then be back in the residence by
31:24
Speaker 6: the time the 5 hit, right? So how he's doing
31:27
Speaker 6: the job is not necessarily different. But reporters have been
31:30
Speaker 6: trying to track down evidence that Joe Biden has some
31:33
Speaker 6: sort of cognitive decline for three and a half years.
31:36
Speaker 6: And it is notable that people are coming out of
31:38
Speaker 6: the woodwork now, right? I think that it's just people
31:42
Speaker 6: may be more– maybe they're more willing to talk. Maybe
31:44
Speaker 6: now all of a sudden they saw the debate or
31:46
Speaker 6: are sort of trying to find out where the narrative
31:49
Speaker 6: is going so they can lead it there. And it's
31:52
Speaker 6: just the other thing that I keep wrestling with is
31:55
Speaker 6: Joe Biden's advisors are incredibly smart. All this reporting shows
31:58
Speaker 6: he spends a ton of time with five or six
32:01
Speaker 6: of his advisors. We know who all those people are.
32:04
Speaker 6: Those people sat in a room after seeing Joe Biden
32:07
Speaker 6: every single day and decided that the best, biggest move
32:10
Speaker 6: the campaign should make would be to have a 90-minute
32:12
Speaker 6: debate with Donald Trump in June.
32:14
Speaker 3: So if he was really going through.
32:16
Speaker 6: Some of this rapid decline as he's showing up in
32:18
Speaker 6: these stories, why would these incredibly smart people want to
32:22
Speaker 6: have this debate? They sought it out aggressively. They could
32:25
Speaker 6: have waited until October. They could have hoped that the
32:28
Speaker 6: debate never happened. It would be pretty easy to come
32:31
Speaker 6: up with an excuse, maybe bad politics, but to come
32:33
Speaker 6: up with an excuse as to why he doesn't want
32:35
Speaker 6: to debate a liar like Donald Trump. But they wanted
32:38
Speaker 6: the debate, and it's so hard to square these reports
32:41
Speaker 6: of what we're hearing with that strategic decision.
32:44
Speaker 7: I hear that too, Dan. And like, you know, even
32:46
Speaker 7: just kind of raising the point I just made felt
32:50
Speaker 7: delicate to me. It's just, I think the consistent thing
32:52
Speaker 7: you see in a lot of reports in the last
32:55
Speaker 7: couple of weeks or since the debate is that things
32:57
Speaker 7: have changed rapidly in the last six months. I think that,
33:01
Speaker 7: you know, I've talked to people that worked for him
33:04
Speaker 7: early on in the administration and no longer do, and
33:06
Speaker 7: they feel like, you know, he kind of looks and
33:08
Speaker 7: sounds a little different. Clearly, like the period that is
33:11
Speaker 7: being reported on in this time story includes some travel
33:15
Speaker 7: that would destroy anybody, right? You don't go to Europe
33:18
Speaker 7: and back to Los Angeles, back to Europe, back to
33:21
Speaker 7: a debate, right? Like, so clearly like the schedule was
33:25
Speaker 7: unmanageable for a 40-year-old, let alone an 81-year-old. But it
33:29
Speaker 7: is just like the one part of this story that
33:32
Speaker 7: didn't seem speculative and it wasn't like the time's you know,
33:36
Speaker 7: looking at a video and sort of making determinations about
33:39
Speaker 7: Biden is talking to this advisor being like, hey, would
33:42
Speaker 7: you put him in a room with Putin right now?
33:44
Speaker 7: And this person said, I don't know. And I think
33:46
Speaker 7: that's sort of like where you get to the question
33:48
Speaker 7: of someone who worked for him at one point, suggesting
33:53
Speaker 7: that maybe they don't think he can fully do the job.
33:56
Speaker 7: And like, maybe that person was never senior or never
33:58
Speaker 7: close to him, doesn't know him now, didn't know him then.
34:01
Speaker 7: But it's just the kind of thing you see in
34:02
Speaker 7: print that's going to lead to a lot more questions
34:04
Speaker 7: and reporting and challenges.
34:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the way you can kind of square
34:09
Speaker 2: the circle is that what we could be just seeing
34:13
Speaker 2: is something that is slow. And there's no quantum difference
34:18
Speaker 2: between the Joe Biden of today and the Joe Biden
34:20
Speaker 2: of two years ago. It's just that all the problems
34:24
Speaker 2: that are manageable and maybe concerning, but ultimately not reflective
34:27
Speaker 2: of his ability to do the job have just gotten
34:30
Speaker 2: slowly and steadily worse that We all knew from the
34:34
Speaker 2: day Joe Biden became president in 2020 that because of
34:36
Speaker 2: his age, his days might be shorter, that his meetings
34:39
Speaker 2: might be constrained to a shorter part of the day,
34:43
Speaker 2: that he might not be as articulate or energetic for
34:47
Speaker 2: an evening rally because of his age, but that wouldn't
34:49
Speaker 2: prevent him from being an excellent president. And by the way,
34:52
Speaker 2: you know, whether it's Kevin McCarthy saying behind the scenes
34:56
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden was a fierce interlocutor behind when they
35:00
Speaker 2: were negotiating over the budget, or his ability to pass legislation,
35:05
Speaker 2: negotiate with Congress, or deploy his team to negotiate with Congress.
35:09
Speaker 2: The fact that he was older and that his schedule
35:12
Speaker 2: was shorter didn't preclude him from doing a good job,
35:15
Speaker 2: but that at a certain point, that steady erosion of
35:20
Speaker 2: the amount of time, the steady slowing, all of those
35:25
Speaker 2: things at a certain point can add up to be
35:27
Speaker 2: more than the sum of their parts. And that's how
35:29
Speaker 2: I think a group of advisors can sit with Joe
35:31
Speaker 2: Biden and say, the Joe Biden I know and see
35:33
Speaker 2: at his best could absolutely wipe the floor with Donald Trump,
35:37
Speaker 2: could be the Joe Biden we saw at the State
35:39
Speaker 2: of the Union, could assuage those concerns. But unfortunately for
35:43
Speaker 2: them and for us and for the country, the Joe
35:45
Speaker 2: Biden that showed up at the debate was the one
35:47
Speaker 2: that reflects his age more than maybe it would have
35:50
Speaker 2: a few years ago.
35:51
Speaker 6: It's just, I think there's just a line here between
35:53
Speaker 6: a slowed down Joe Biden And cannot do the job, right?
35:57
Speaker 6: Like wouldn't put him in a room with Putin, right?
35:59
Speaker 6: And I think I am very much want to and
36:03
Speaker 6: willing to give Joe Biden and the people around him
36:05
Speaker 6: the benefit of the doubt that yes, he's an 81
36:08
Speaker 6: year old, he is operating a different schedule than, and
36:11
Speaker 6: you have to make adjustments to that, right? Like as
36:13
Speaker 6: he walks down the small steps in Air Force One,
36:16
Speaker 6: you don't schedule a bunch of night events.
36:18
Speaker 5: Right.
36:18
Speaker 6: It's also true that he works a lot harder than
36:20
Speaker 6: Donald Trump ever did.
36:21
Speaker 5: Right.
36:21
Speaker 6: Those things are all true. Just the way the stories
36:23
Speaker 6: are being written now suggests like it's like the inferences
36:27
Speaker 6: of this has been this broad conspiracy of his family
36:30
Speaker 6: and a group of tight advisors, all of whom we
36:32
Speaker 6: know and are friends with and are true patriots. To
36:35
Speaker 6: hide the fact that he is in a mental decline state,
36:38
Speaker 6: that he cannot do the job. I will have to
36:40
Speaker 6: see real evidence of that to believe that to be
36:43
Speaker 6: the case. I think that's just a very different thing. Now,
36:46
Speaker 6: what happens four years from now? Can an 86-year-old be president?
36:49
Speaker 6: I don't care who that 86-year-old is. This is an
36:53
Speaker 6: incredibly hard job that ages you. And the older you are,
36:55
Speaker 6: that aging happens at an exponential rate. But I just
36:58
Speaker 6: want to hit the brakes a little bit on these
37:00
Speaker 6: stories that are coming out right now in the middle
37:02
Speaker 6: of this feeding frenzy.
37:04
Speaker 7: Yeah, I hear that. And I hear you on the
37:06
Speaker 7: staffing part. And then frankly, the thing that's annoyed me
37:07
Speaker 7: the most in the last couple of days is the
37:09
Speaker 7: reporting where people are just pointing the finger at Biden's advisor,
37:13
Speaker 7: suggesting that like poor debate prep was the problem, et cetera,
37:15
Speaker 7: et cetera. Like I just fundamentally reject that. I think
37:18
Speaker 7: you can do debate prep. It can go well, it
37:20
Speaker 7: can go poorly, but at the end of the day,
37:22
Speaker 7: like the candidate has to debate. And I think what
37:24
Speaker 7: we saw Thursday night was not, could not solely be
37:27
Speaker 7: explained by debate prep, not even close.
37:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure.
37:30
Speaker 7: For sure.
37:43
Speaker 2: All right, so let's talk about the Supreme Court. As
37:45
Speaker 2: if the stakes didn't feel high enough, on Monday, the
37:47
Speaker 2: Supreme Court finally handed down its decision in Trump v.
37:50
Speaker 2: the United States, the long-awaited immunity decision. And even with
37:53
Speaker 2: our low expectations, this managed to be far worse than
37:57
Speaker 2: what was anticipated. Strict scrutiny just recorded a great bonus
38:00
Speaker 2: episode on this that I would encourage all of you
38:03
Speaker 2: to check out for actual legal analysis from actual lawyers. But,
38:06
Speaker 2: you know, we're sitting here. Biden gave an address. on Monday,
38:11
Speaker 2: decrying the opinion. Here's a clip of that.
38:13
Speaker 1: Now the American people have to do what the courts
38:15
Speaker 1: should have been willing to do, but will not. The
38:18
Speaker 1: American people have to render a judgment about Donald Trump's behavior.
38:23
Speaker 1: The American people must decide whether Donald Trump's assault on
38:25
Speaker 1: our democracy on January 6th makes him unfit for public
38:29
Speaker 1: office in the highest office in the land. The American
38:33
Speaker 1: people must decide if Trump's embrace of violence to preserve
38:37
Speaker 1: his power is acceptable. Perhaps most importantly, the American people
38:43
Speaker 1: must decide they want to entrust the president once again,
38:47
Speaker 1: the presidency to Donald Trump. I know I will respect
38:51
Speaker 1: the limits of the presidential powers I have for three
38:53
Speaker 1: and a half years. But any president, including Donald Trump,
38:58
Speaker 1: will now be free to ignore the law.
39:01
Speaker 2: Tommy, what did you think of Biden's response and why
39:04
Speaker 2: do you think he chose to go out there on this?
39:06
Speaker 7: So, I mean, I think the substance of the remarks
39:09
Speaker 7: was great. I mean, I think he's absolutely right that
39:11
Speaker 7: presidents have to respect the limits of their power and
39:15
Speaker 7: that this immunity decision is monumental and damaging and could
39:19
Speaker 7: have horrible repercussions, which are extensively outlined in the strict
39:23
Speaker 7: scrutiny episode that you should all listen to. In some sense,
39:26
Speaker 7: I was a little surprised by the fact that he
39:29
Speaker 7: went out. and made these remarks, in part because Biden
39:32
Speaker 7: has rightly been worried about appearing to like thumb the
39:36
Speaker 7: scale on any of the federal prosecutions. But I think ultimately,
39:40
Speaker 7: he decided that this is a ruling that doesn't just
39:43
Speaker 7: impact Donald Trump. It's one that changes the nature of
39:46
Speaker 7: the presidency forever. And he just had to be heard
39:48
Speaker 7: on it. So I think it was, you know, important
39:50
Speaker 7: to go out and kind of like lay down this marker.
39:52
Speaker 7: You know, there's sort of the broader context that it
39:55
Speaker 7: happened in. You know, I imagine that the White House
39:58
Speaker 7: wanted a clean story on just this topic. So they
40:02
Speaker 7: didn't have him take questions. Not taking questions probably sort
40:05
Speaker 7: of feeds into this broader frenzy of debate about the
40:09
Speaker 7: debate itself that we can talk about. But like the
40:11
Speaker 7: remarks themselves, I thought were well done.
40:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought so too. But like, I was watching,
40:16
Speaker 2: I was watching MSNBC. You know, things are dark when
40:19
Speaker 2: I've got the cable news going all the time. You know, that's,
40:22
Speaker 2: that's when I'm at a real low. But one by one,
40:25
Speaker 2: all these legal scholars were kind of commenting on what
40:28
Speaker 2: it meant that Joe Biden went out there. And then
40:30
Speaker 2: they got to Nicole Wallace, who obviously is a former
40:34
Speaker 2: White House aide. And she was just like, Honestly, I
40:37
Speaker 2: was putting this entirely in the context of the debate
40:39
Speaker 2: about his age. And that's what I was doing, too.
40:43
Speaker 2: And I was just sort of, I was like, oh,
40:45
Speaker 2: he's going to take questions. You know, he's going to
40:47
Speaker 2: use this to kind of take this as an opportunity
40:50
Speaker 2: to turn the page, interact with reporters, remind people of
40:53
Speaker 2: the stakes about the election. But instead, he went out
40:55
Speaker 2: to the microphones, gave five minutes, had a great spray
40:58
Speaker 2: tan going. and then turned around and walked back out. Dan,
41:02
Speaker 2: did you think he would take questions? Were you surprised
41:04
Speaker 2: that it was just.
41:04
Speaker 3: A quick statement?
41:05
Speaker 6: I didn't think he would take questions. Now, you can
41:07
Speaker 6: debate whether he should. If you were just going through
41:09
Speaker 6: the communications director playbook for this, you would never take
41:13
Speaker 6: questions at a nationally televised address. This is your clean shot.
41:17
Speaker 6: You get to speak directly to a million people. And
41:19
Speaker 6: this opinion is right directly square the middle of Joe
41:23
Speaker 6: Biden's message about the dangers of Donald Trump. I thought
41:26
Speaker 6: the statement was really good. I thought I was impressed
41:29
Speaker 6: by how aggressively he went after the court. Joe Biden
41:33
Speaker 6: takes judicial independence more seriously than any person on the
41:36
Speaker 6: planet and he rarely comments on court cases. We have
41:40
Speaker 6: not heard him commenting about corruption in the court and
41:44
Speaker 6: Justice Thomas and Justice Alita or any of that stuff.
41:46
Speaker 6: And so that he did this statement, once again, whichever
41:51
Speaker 6: White House lawyer is letting him walk so finely along
41:55
Speaker 6: the line of the Hatch Act to be able to
41:57
Speaker 6: talk about Donald Trump in this.
41:58
Speaker 7: Great.
41:58
Speaker 6: That person is doing a great job and is an
42:00
Speaker 6: American hero. But the reason you wouldn't take questions in
42:03
Speaker 6: a normal world is the question is about his age
42:06
Speaker 6: and you want the headline to be Joe Biden says
42:09
Speaker 6: this Supreme Court hearing really makes Donald Trump a threat
42:12
Speaker 6: or a greater threat or Donald Trump will now have
42:14
Speaker 6: more powers and fewer checks and balances. And you know,
42:17
Speaker 6: you could hear the, if you're watching on cable, you
42:18
Speaker 6: could hear the questions being shouted at him by the press.
42:20
Speaker 4: Yeah.
42:21
Speaker 3: And those don't seem pleasant to take.
42:23
Speaker 6: Now, if you're not going to take questions that night, right,
42:27
Speaker 6: then the next morning you got your clean hit. So
42:29
Speaker 6: what do you do in the next morning to scratch
42:32
Speaker 6: that other itch, to show people, are you doing a
42:34
Speaker 6: big interview? Are you on press cameras at the White House?
42:36
Speaker 6: Whatever that is. He had a statement today on Tuesday
42:39
Speaker 6: at an extreme weather event, but once again, no questions
42:43
Speaker 6: off a prompter. And so you're going to have to break,
42:45
Speaker 6: you know, sort of break from the traditional playbook to
42:47
Speaker 6: do this. And so I think that was the right
42:50
Speaker 6: thing to do. I'm fine with them not taking questions,
42:52
Speaker 6: but they should have taken questions since the debate. They
42:55
Speaker 6: should be doing it now. They should be doing it tomorrow.
42:56
Speaker 6: They should, we shouldn't be waiting for a Friday interview with, well,
42:59
Speaker 6: obviously Thursday's the 4th, so maybe not the day of
43:00
Speaker 6: the interview, but there's like, you could use more urgency
43:03
Speaker 6: on that front.
43:04
Speaker 2: So, Tommy, the three liberal justices issued a scathing dissent
43:12
Speaker 2: in this immunity ruling Any favorite moments?
43:15
Speaker 7: Yeah, there's some bangers in this dissent. They talk about
43:19
Speaker 7: how the rule has no basis in law. They say
43:21
Speaker 7: it makes a mockery of the principle that no one
43:24
Speaker 7: is above the law. The dissent talks about some of
43:27
Speaker 7: the nightmarish hypotheticals that came up in oral arguments, like
43:30
Speaker 7: the president asking the military to take out a political opponent.
43:34
Speaker 7: Sotomayor wrote of that, even if these nightmare scenarios never
43:37
Speaker 7: play out, and I pray they never do, the damage
43:39
Speaker 7: has been done. The relationship between the president and the
43:42
Speaker 7: people he serves has shifted revocably. In every use of
43:45
Speaker 7: official power, the president is now a king above the law.
43:49
Speaker 7: They called it nonsensical to suggest that prosecutors couldn't use
43:52
Speaker 7: Trump's official acts as evidence in a trial and that
43:55
Speaker 7: it ends with fear for our democracy.
43:57
Speaker 2: I dissent.
43:59
Speaker 7: And apparently they read them aloud in front of each other,
44:01
Speaker 7: like the world's smartest book report at the court. So
44:05
Speaker 7: this must be pretty intense.
44:07
Speaker 2: So, Dan, as a result of this, It looks like
44:11
Speaker 2: the DC trial wasn't going to start for a long
44:12
Speaker 2: time anyhow, but now it seems like what we'll get
44:15
Speaker 2: is maybe some kind of a mini trial, which seems
44:17
Speaker 2: like a kind of a resistancy name for a hearing.
44:22
Speaker 2: September already feels like a lifetime away, but how much
44:24
Speaker 2: juice do you think we can squeeze from a pre-trial
44:29
Speaker 2: Trump hearing?
44:30
Speaker 3: In a courtroom with no cameras?
44:32
Speaker 2: In a courtroom with no cameras.
44:34
Speaker 3: I would say not a lot of juice. What is it.
44:39
Speaker 6: Basically, what this hearing has to be is they now
44:42
Speaker 6: have to– Judge Chukin now has to decide which of
44:46
Speaker 6: Trump's acts were clearly official, which therefore cannot be– he
44:51
Speaker 6: cannot be tried for, which likely includes the part of
44:54
Speaker 6: the indictment that deals with interference of the Justice Department
44:58
Speaker 6: because what this ruling does to it is it gets
45:00
Speaker 6: rid of the idea of an independent Justice Department. But
45:03
Speaker 6: all the other things– I mean it's sort of amazing
45:05
Speaker 6: what the court did here because basically there are three
45:09
Speaker 6: kinds of acts. There are official acts, which you have
45:12
Speaker 6: absolute immunity from. There are quasi-official acts, which you have
45:16
Speaker 6: the presumption of immunity from. So now Jack Smith is
45:20
Speaker 6: going to– all these other things on the outside that
45:22
Speaker 6: they're going to have to prove that he is not immune,
45:26
Speaker 6: that they are not actually official. And then there are
45:28
Speaker 6: private acts for which you have no immunity from. But
45:31
Speaker 6: so ultimately by doing the presumption of immunity means that
45:33
Speaker 6: this court is going to get to decide on individual
45:36
Speaker 6: cases whether a president is immune or not. I'm only
45:39
Speaker 6: just going to take a wild stab that means they
45:42
Speaker 6: get to make the decision depending on who's president, right?
45:45
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, definitely immune. Joe Biden, not immune at all.
45:49
Speaker 6: And so this is the kind of hearing we're going
45:51
Speaker 6: to have to have.
45:53
Speaker 3: There will be details in it.
45:54
Speaker 6: There will be potentially witness testimony from someone like a
45:56
Speaker 6: Mike Pence. That will be a big deal. It'll be
45:59
Speaker 6: in September when more people are paying attention than were
46:01
Speaker 6: paying attention earlier this spring during the Manhattan trial. But
46:07
Speaker 6: I think one of the lessons of the Manhattan trial
46:08
Speaker 6: is without video, without live television coverage or videos that
46:13
Speaker 6: can circulate on social media, it's.
46:16
Speaker 3: Just really hard to break through.
46:17
Speaker 6: But who is just reading the New York Times live
46:22
Speaker 6: blog off of it or waiting for the summary by
46:25
Speaker 6: phone from the MSNBC legal reporter during Chris Hayes. Like,
46:29
Speaker 6: that's just not how you break through. And so, I mean,
46:32
Speaker 6: we should do everything we can to make it a
46:33
Speaker 6: big deal, but it's hard.
46:35
Speaker 7: Such disrespect for an evidentiary hearing, Dan.
46:38
Speaker 4: Unbelievable.
46:38
Speaker 7: I mean, I guess the question is whether they... Yeah, no,
46:39
Speaker 7: it's pretty insulting. I guess the question, right, is whether
46:41
Speaker 7: they get anything new or if this is going to
46:44
Speaker 7: feel kind of warmed over from the blockbuster January 6th
46:47
Speaker 7: committee hearings that we all watched and then forgot about.
46:50
Speaker 3: Well, Mike Pence, under oath, if that were to come
46:52
Speaker 3: to case, would be new and big.
46:54
Speaker 2: Yeah.
46:54
Speaker 8: That'd be great.
46:55
Speaker 2: Yeah.
46:55
Speaker 4: I also.
46:56
Speaker 3: It's also.
46:57
Speaker 2: who in September of 2024 is like, I'm not so
47:00
Speaker 2: sure about Donald Trump. This is finally the information I
47:03
Speaker 2: need to confirm that I'm not going to vote for him.
47:06
Speaker 2: Just hours after the opinion dropped, Trump used the outcome
47:08
Speaker 2: to go back to court in New York and argue
47:10
Speaker 2: that his 34 felony convictions should be overturned because of
47:14
Speaker 2: the ruling. Today, Judge Marchand pushed sentencing to September. Tommy,
47:18
Speaker 2: politically speaking, is this the best week Donald Trump has
47:22
Speaker 2: ever had? Could you imagine? Has he had a better
47:25
Speaker 2: week in his political life? than what has unfolded over
47:27
Speaker 2: the last seven days?
47:29
Speaker 7: You know, it's a really hard question. Winning the election
47:34
Speaker 7: was probably better, but this is a close second. This
47:38
Speaker 7: is about as many kind of unexpected gifts as you
47:43
Speaker 7: could get in a row. Now, maybe you did expect
47:45
Speaker 7: this one from the Supreme Court because you did help
47:47
Speaker 7: pack the court full of people you handpicked. But yeah,
47:51
Speaker 7: he had a pretty good week here.
47:54
Speaker 2: Dan, you want to take the counter on.
47:58
Speaker 4: That?
47:58
Speaker 6: I mean, look, he's still going to be sentenced. He's
47:59
Speaker 6: not going to be sentenced in September. One of my
48:02
Speaker 6: big takeaways, both from the Supreme Court and then Judge
48:04
Speaker 6: Bershon needing an entire summer to figure out whether the
48:08
Speaker 6: acts Donald Trump committed before he was elected president fall
48:11
Speaker 6: under the presidential immunity decision, makes me think that people
48:15
Speaker 6: broadly in the judiciary need to work faster and harder.
48:18
Speaker 6: I'm not sure why it's taking that long to do that.
48:21
Speaker 2: Nobody wants to work anymore. There's not a lot of
48:23
Speaker 2: lighter news out there, but before we go, here's something.
48:26
Speaker 2: Steve Bannon went to prison. That's something. Not for particularly
48:29
Speaker 2: big or meaningful crime in the scheme of things, but
48:31
Speaker 2: he did go. Reporting on Monday to the Federal Correctional
48:34
Speaker 2: Institution in Danbury, Connecticut, he told Time Magazine the other
48:38
Speaker 2: day he'd mostly be in the prison library, not the
48:40
Speaker 2: weight room, because he'll need to follow the news. So
48:43
Speaker 2: don't expect Steve Bannon, in his own words... to be
48:46
Speaker 2: prison ripped. Tommy, were you expecting Steve Bannon to come
48:50
Speaker 2: out prison ripped?
48:51
Speaker 7: You know, I just, my hope for Steve is that
48:54
Speaker 7: he gets a little bit of Steve time. You know,
48:56
Speaker 7: he gives so much to the country. He gives so
48:58
Speaker 7: much to war and pandemic listeners. He gives so much
49:01
Speaker 7: to Donald Trump that I just, I hope he gets
49:04
Speaker 7: some self-care. And whether that's through books or through, you know,
49:08
Speaker 7: physical fitness, I don't really care. I just want Steve
49:11
Speaker 7: to think about Steve.
49:12
Speaker 2: Rudy Giuliani was also disbarred in New York today. based
49:15
Speaker 2: on his role in trying to undermine the 2020 election.
49:17
Speaker 2: So there's a bonus day. So while the news is bleak,
49:21
Speaker 2: it was a tough day to be a Trump slob, Dan.
49:24
Speaker 6: Look, I think we got to take the ones we
49:25
Speaker 6: can get them. We are moving up to the top
49:27
Speaker 6: of the pyramid here, right? We are trying like Bannon today,
49:31
Speaker 6: Giuliani tomorrow.
49:32
Speaker 3: We already got Peter Navarro. I think he's still in
49:34
Speaker 3: prison somewhere, right?
49:35
Speaker 7: I guess, right.
49:36
Speaker 2: I guess Peter Navarro is currently still in prison.
49:38
Speaker 3: Who could be next, right? Let's just look.
49:40
Speaker 6: We got to end this thing on a high note.
49:42
Speaker 6: Rudy Giuliani not being able to practice law in New York.
49:44
Speaker 3: That seems fitting.
49:45
Speaker 6: Maybe he can go to jail next. Steve Bannon in prison.
49:47
Speaker 6: We've been calling for that for years now, right? So
49:51
Speaker 6: let's not be dark.
49:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all going to be all right. It's all
49:55
Speaker 2: going to be okay. Well, I guess that's as fine
49:58
Speaker 2: a place as any to leave it. Crooked is closed
50:01
Speaker 2: for July 4th. So we'll be back with a new episode.
50:05
Speaker 2: On Tuesday, I hope everybody enjoys Fourth of July, a
50:07
Speaker 2: holiday that is famously about ending the age of kings.
50:13
Speaker 2: And so maybe this will be the last one where
50:15
Speaker 2: we get to do that. So everybody, you know, I
50:16
Speaker 2: think enjoy it. And we'll see you after the break.
50:20
Speaker 4: Bye, everyone.
50:22
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