Latest / Closing Market Report / Jan 22 | Closing Market Report

Transcript

Jan 22 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the January 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett from agmarket.net. We'll hear from Travis Mateer.
• 0:16
  He's organizing the winter meeting related to the Dudley Smith farm that'll take place in Taylorville on the February. That's Christian County. We'll talk about beef cattle, but so much more, and row croppers that are thinking about the legacies of their soils and cover crops both should consider getting themselves registered. We'll let you know how to do that a bit later in the program. And as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast too, the cold coming into the Midwest, the rest of the nation, and, of course, South American crops.
• 0:50
  We'll do that with Mike Tenura at T Storm Weather on this Thursday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio with Farming World online on demand at willag.org.
• 1:08
  announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 1:13
  Todd Gleason: March corn settled at $4.24. That was up 2 and a quarter cents for the day. The May at $4.32 and a quarter, two and a half higher. And the December new crop at $4.51 and 3 quarters up to July rather March soybeans down a half at $10.64, May at $10.76 and a quarter, a penny and a quarter higher. And November new crop up two and three quarters at $10.77 and a quarter cents.
• 1:37
  Bean yield $4.80 higher. The bean oil, down 23¢, and soft red winter wheat, up seven and three quarters. Jim McCormick now joins us. He's with agmarket.net and is filling in for Matt Bennett, who's actually on a plane. I think he's still in the air, although I was able to text with him.
• 1:55
  Hey, Jim. Thanks for, filling in for Matt this afternoon. I appreciate that.
• 1:59
  Jim McCormick: No problem. Happy to do it, Todd.
• 2:01
  Todd Gleason: Let's talk about the marketplace. This has been kind of an interesting week on the global front. However, it didn't seem to have much of an impact in the marketplace other than the fundamentals that we expect. Drier weather, maybe conditions in Brazil that has moved to soybeans at some point. What happened today in Chicago?
• 2:20
  Jim McCormick: Well, it's a relatively quiet day at times, but, you know, it's kinda interesting, Todd. You look at the beans. They did surge overnight. That March beans managed to get over the two hundred day moving average for a second day in a row. We probed through it yesterday, but closed back below it.
• 2:35
  We did it again today or last night and then kind of failed. So we tried to technically take out some resistance and it pulled back. Part of that might've been the bean oil. The bean oil was down about 25, 27 ticks. It has been on a tear over the last ten days as you're seeing some fund money coming to the bean oil, Todd, I believe in anticipation of some positive news coming out of the Trump administration about the RVO mandates and what could come down the pipeline in the next sixty days.
• 3:04
  That has the funds positioning in the bean oil. That's caught the bean oil caught a bit. That spilled over into the bean market a little bit. And like I said, bean oil pulled back, allowed the beans to pull back a bit.
• 3:13
  Todd Gleason: Corn managed to hold fairly strong. This despite since we're talking about some policies, in Washington DC, not including e 15 in bills, funding bills that are moving forward in congress at this point. The corn growers are just, they are furious. We'll hear about that, in in a moment or two. I'm surprised that didn't spill over into the biofuel side of it or soybean side.
• 3:41
  You can talk about either of them.
• 3:43
  Jim McCormick: Well, I think a little bit like I said, I think the the industry there is definitely a little bit disappointed. There was a lot of rhetoric maybe that was going to get into one of these funding bills. Now I'm hearing maybe it's going to be a supplemental bill. But with how tenuous Washington is right now, I wouldn't hold my breath in that aspect. It seems like these things only get done when they're forced to get something done on a time delay crunch to fund the government per se.
• 4:07
  But like you said, corn market, it is up still higher on the day. The reason being, look at not Brazil, but it is Argentina. Argentina is turning a little bit dry. Not a lot of rain in the next ten days, Todd. The temperatures are warming up.
• 4:20
  Some of the longer range maps are trying to argue rain in day ten to fifteen day portion of map, but we've seen that multiple times now where that rain does not pull forward. And I would argue you're seeing maybe the first glimpse of maybe a little bit of weather premium coming back into the corn market and that provided support. We also obviously have this bitter cold temperatures coming in across the Midwest. Grain transportation is going to get very, very tight here, very hard to get stuff moving. So maybe you're seeing a little bit of buying ideas.
• 4:50
  We're going to feed a little bit more corn out there to keep the livestock warm, as well as maybe some winter kill fears for the wheat market helping provide a little bit of a bounce in the wheat today.
• 4:59
  Todd Gleason: What do you see through the time that we get their prospective plantings report? Will there be opportunities for producers to market some old crop corn?
• 5:07
  Jim McCormick: I believe there will be, Todd. I mean, you you'll look at where you're at. I think the the trade is falling on around 95,000,000 acres of corn. That's still going to be too much with a trend line yield. But that being said, Todd, you've got three weather events we still have to get through.
• 5:21
  We've got this Argentina issue, which is starting to percolate a little bit. Then you got the safrinha crop. We obviously haven't even started planting that safrinha crop. And then of course you have The US crop to be planted. And if you're here in the Eastern Corn Belt, you know there is some very, very dry soils in the Eastern Corn Belt right now.
• 5:36
  So traditionally the market will give you an opportunity to sell grain close to break even or above break even. I would guess we will see some weather premium come into the market throughout the springtime. But because of the carry out 2,200,000,000.0, which I fear will be closer to 2.5 when it's all said and done due to the current overstating of the feed and residual category, those rallies probably need to be, you know, looked at as selling opportunities if they would arrive.
• 6:03
  Todd Gleason: Normally, do not ask the question in this way, but is there a reason for producers to set a floor under their old crop or under their new crop at this point? And if so, how do they do it?
• 6:17
  Jim McCormick: I would be a little bit hesitant to get too aggressive selling corn at $4.50, the new crop price, but if you're very nervous about it economically and you need to do some risk management, you can use futures obviously at cash price. But I would prefer if you did use the futures or a cash price, I guess I would use some options maybe as a way to re own it, because you are selling it below cost of breakeven for a lot of, unfortunately, for a lot of people, if you would sell corn here, or you might consider using maybe just an option where you're putting a floor in place, but leaving the top side open. Like I said, we're in a very weird dynamic, Todd. 2,200,000,000 bushel projected old carry out right now is not bullish. That carry out, like I said, I fear could be pushing 2.425 is not bullish.
• 7:00
  And The US acreage talking 95,000,000 is not bullish if you get all planted. But what could go wrong? Argentina, Safrinha, The US, and why is that really important? The world supply of corn tout is at ten year lows. So even though we've been increasing production here in The US, the world actual supply is dropping to ten year lows.
• 7:20
  So if any one of those countries or more likely one or two of these countries have a weather problem, I think you will see the market see an inflow of cash into the corn market. And that's why you wanna if you're selling grain, you wanna be able to main some up upside opportunity via like I said, puts or leave the topside open or sell cash or futures and use options, calls maybe to reown it to be able to protect some potential weather issue.
• 7:46
  Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Jim. I appreciate it.
• 7:47
  Jim McCormick: No problem. Stay warm out there, folks.
• 7:50
  Todd Gleason: Mhmm. Jim McCormick is with agmarket.net. Just one agricultural news item for the day. We'll read this verbatim from the National Corn Growers Association. It is headlined corn growers furious with the new development on E 15.
• 8:13
  The house, it writes, is expected to advance a funding bill today that admits language that would allow consumers across the country to access fuels with a 15% corn ethanol blend, often referred to as e 15. In response to this development, Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association president Jed Bauer released the following statement. He says corn growers are disgusted, disappointed, and disillusioned that after spending years of calling for passage of e 15, congress has again punted, and it has done so in a spectacularly weak and defensive way. Bizarrely, members of congress are now planning, he says, to establish a rural energy council to explore this legislation as if we are in the beginning stages of discussing e 15. The quote goes on.
• 9:04
  We already have a bill, says Bauer. We already have an agreement with the petroleum industry after months of negotiation. But instead of acting, congress is now suggesting a process ridden task force that kicks the can down the road once again. Congress is choosing to leave America's 500,000 corn farmers behind in favor of a handful of refineries. That's the one news item today verbatim from the National Corn Growers Association.
• 9:46
  You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org, where soon enough, you'll find a way to register for the all day ag outlook to be held in Covington at the Beef House on Tuesday, March 3. This is the thirty sixth annual event. We'll cover the basics for the coming crop year. You can join the WILL ag analyst and the PharmDoc team for the whole of the day, and we'll do just the basics for the day, including the markets, the weather, trade, competition, and crop insurance.
• 10:23
  There are changes in all of those things that you'll want to be aware of going into the new growing season. Again, the All Day Ag Outlook is Tuesday, March 3 at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. The registration fee covers all of the cost for the day, including your morning Beef House coffee and rolls along with the Beef House lunch at the noon hour. Check out willag.org, willag.org. We'll have registration information up soon, could be this afternoon or tomorrow.
• 10:55
  Again, Will Eggs, all day outlook at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana is Tuesday, March 3. Put it on your calendar today, and thank you. You know the Dudley Smith Farm winter meeting is coming up in Christian County, Illinois. That's Taylorville on the February. This one is targeted, I think, particularly at those folks who are interested in cattle production, and we're now joined by beef cattle specialist with University of Illinois Extension, an educator, and we appreciate him taking some time.
• 11:35
  Travis Mateer is here. He puts this meeting together. Hi, Travis. Thank you for being with us. Let's start with some pretty simple questions.
• 11:42
  What is the Studley Smith Farm winter meeting all about?
• 11:46
  Travis Meteer: Yeah. Thanks, Todd. So it it's one of those meetings that traditionally we have focused on beef cattle topics and predominantly grazing. But, if you look at the program this year, we've really diversified it a little bit. Now there's still that cattle component, but we've got up updated research through the Dudley Smith initiative, research updates on cover crops and how fertility treatments impact water quality and nutrient loss, and then also drainage water recycling.
• 12:18
  And so those are some really cool projects that are going on at the Dudley Smith Research Farm. We also have, a producer panel later in the day that's gonna talk about soil health legacy. So we have a kind of wide array of topics to discuss this year. And so I think, again, if you're a row crop farmer and you're you're cover cropping, thinking about cover cropping, or you have a diversified farm with row crop and cattle, this this meeting is gonna touch on some topics that, should get you excited and I think give you a lot of good information when you leave that date.
• 12:52
  Todd Gleason: And I feel like given the situation on the farm that there will many be many that are interested in cattle production or possibly diversifying. And also the cover crop site. You have some folks from crop sciences there, agricultural engineering here on campus, and, of course, animal sciences on campus as well. There will be a panel discussion later in the afternoon with producers. That one's on soil health and, and legacy.
• 13:18
  You'll be leading that one. Can you tell me more about what that is?
• 13:22
  Travis Meteer: Yeah. So I've got three gentlemen lined up that have either won a state or national award in conservation. And so they're gonna share their experiences, how they've been able to, I think, add more resiliency to their farm and build that soil health legacy. And so we know we know that that's an important piece of farming. And and so, again, these these producers have been, I would say, pioneers in this area, but also are just gonna lend their everyday experience because it's really you know, we can get excited and read lots of articles, but and do lots of research projects.
• 14:03
  But the day in, the day out, the practices, what works on farm, We're gonna share those experiences and have a candid conversation. So come ready with your questions and how ask how things worked, you know, in the past, in in the moment, and in the future. I think we've got some really good panel members that are gonna provide a lot of insight.
• 14:22
  Todd Gleason: This should be a great day in Christian County at the Christian County University of Illinois Extension office there in Taylorville. It runs from nine in the morning to 12:15. It does include lunch. Is there a registration fee, and how do you register?
• 14:38
  Travis Meteer: Yeah. No fee, but, yeah, we would like you to register online. That we've got a link. Go.illinois.edudsfwinter20six. Find that online.
• 14:50
  You can search Dudley Smith winter meeting, and a lot of times it will pop up there. And we've we've started to populate this flyer through several email lists, and it'll be on, University of Illinois beef cattle extension Facebook page. You can find a link there. So, and you can always get a get a hold of me. My my contact info for information is online on the extension staff listing.
• 15:14
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much, Travis. I appreciate it.
• 15:16
  Travis Meteer: Thank you, Todd.
• 15:17
  Todd Gleason: Travis Mateer is an extension beef cattle specialist. He joined us here on the closing market report. You can always register for the Dudley Smith winter meeting. It's in Christian County at the Taylorville University of Illinois extension office on Tuesday, February 10. That's USDA report day as well.
• 15:38
  You can also find it in our calendar at willag.org, willag.org, and the registration is hot. Linked there too. Let's check-in on the global growing regions and see how they're doing with Mike Tanura. He is the president and CEO of T Storm Weather in Naperville, Illinois. Hi.
• 16:09
  Thanks, Mike, for being with again. I think we actually have a lot of ground to cover today, particularly in South America. We should start in Argentina, maybe Southern Brazil. I have been hearing that there's a lack of rainfall. Is this something that bears watching or is already of concern?
• 16:28
  Mike Tannura: Well, it certainly needs to be monitored because it has been drying out over the last couple of weeks in Southern Brazil and going back into last year across Argentina. There's not very much rain in the forecast for any of these areas, which is particularly unusual for Southern Brazil. They average around three to three and a half inches of rain per two weeks at this time of the year And essentially getting no rain over the next ten days just creates a major rainfall departure because that's what we think is going to happen there. And the reason we think that's going to happen is because we have surface level high pressure that's hugging their coast That's a good recipe to dry things out and just kind of suppress all the rainfall. So how that ends up affecting soybeans is the question.
• 17:15
  In Rio Grande do Sul, which is around 15% of their crop, they produce they plant a longer season variety kinda like we do here in The US. And that one will be sensitive for a while. So this lack of rain is affecting them at kind of a problematic time. So that's kind of piece number one. As you move north into Parana in that whole region, they have a shorter season variety and they are harvesting a little bit already because of the way their growing season works out.
• 17:44
  But the sudden lack of rain is not ideal for that crop either because most of it would still benefit from some. So kind of a, you know, story that's developing there we need to keep an eye on. The same thing is happening in Argentina, but the big difference there is that the crop is planted a lot later. So even though it's drying out now, we could still have some nice rains in February and things will start to improve. Maybe the bigger concern in Argentina will be for their corn.
• 18:11
  It is going to be fairly hot in Argentina over the next ten to fourteen days. Heat on corn, as you know, is not a really nice recipe as a crop turns sensitive. Some of that crop is sensitive now and it will be sensitive going forward. And because of that, that might be our bigger concern overall for these areas until we get some rains. And we don't think there's very many or very much rain, at least on the near term horizon.
• 18:37
  Most thunderstorms will stay in Far Western Argentina where the elevation is higher and the crop production region is much sparser. But then as we get into next month, some rain chances are out there, but they just don't look ideal as of today.
• 18:51
  Todd Gleason: It takes care of a part of the central area of the continent. I'm wondering though in the soybean growing regions of Brazil, the Center West, maybe in northern areas, is there a different story to tell there?
• 19:04
  Mike Tannura: Well, it's a little bit different and that is a really important region because that accounts for 60% of Brazil's soybeans. If you look at the North where they plant the latest, that area has been drying out a lot over the last thirty to forty days. And even though we've seen some thunderstorms over the last couple of days, there's not too many on the way going forward. Yes. There will be some, so not completely dry like we were talking about in Southern Brazil.
• 19:29
  But you can make an argument that about 15% of that crop is the overall Brazil crop in there from that region is going to be turning a little bit drier than it needs to be for an ideal crop. In Central Brazil, where around 45% of the soybeans come from, they are much closer to harvest than these other areas, but they're going to be turning wet. So there's a lot of thunderstorms on the way for them because of cool fronts moving through. So Todd, once you put all this together, it's kind of difficult to clearly state that we have significant problems in any one area of Brazil or Argentina. But there's all these little pieces that aren't quite right and that's what we need to be following over the next couple of weeks.
• 20:12
  Todd Gleason: In The United States, we're following something much closer at hand this weekend, starting today, in fact, in my part of the world. Really cold weather. Does this give you concern at all for the winter wheat crop any place in The United States?
• 20:30
  Mike Tannura: Well, if you look at the absolute temperatures, you would quickly come to a conclusion that, hey, this is a big deal because we'll see temperatures in the minus tens and minus twenties across the northern third of the Central US coming up here over the next several mornings. But here's the thing, Todd. There is some snowpack in place. And before the really cold air arrives, we'll see a major storm move across the Southern US and even into the Eastern US. And that will bring light snow to pretty much all of the plains and pretty much all of the Corn Belt.
• 21:00
  So we think that that's going to negate the potential effect of this. The only area that we would be concerned about is from Montana into Southern South Dakota. This area might not receive more than a half of an inch of snow. And if that ends up being the case, and they're pretty much snow free with temperatures in the minus 15 to minus 25 degree range, and mind you, that's not the wind chill. That's the actual air temperature.
• 21:27
  That would cause burn back and maybe even some winter kill. So that would be your area of concern. That probably accounts for around 10% of The US hard red winter wheat crop. But, of course, all of that wouldn't be wiped out or anything like that, just some damage within it. So that's the area to watch.
• 21:44
  But as you know, these winter kill situations, you never really know what happened until you get deeper into the spring and sometimes even after that. Just a tricky one.
• 21:53
  Todd Gleason: And one other thing, are there logistical issues you think that will come about?
• 21:58
  Mike Tannura: Well, that's certainly a major problem for parts of the Central And Eastern US. The main uncertainty here is how far north is the heavy snow going to go. If you asked me about this a couple of days ago, I would be saying Oklahoma, Texas through the Mid South and then moving into the Southeastern US, North Carolina, and Virginia. But things have been steadily shifting northward every twelve hours with these model runs. And if this continues for another run or two, then it's going to be affecting a much wider area of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
• 22:33
  And at this point in time, there's at least a moderate chance for heavy snowfall of more than eight inches across all those regions. So we'll need to be watching this one real close over the next twenty four hours. And there should be some clarity in this setup once we get into tomorrow morning and certainly by tomorrow afternoon because then the storm will only be around twelve to twenty four hours out from the Corn Belt.
• 22:56
  Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Mike. I appreciate it.
• 22:58
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. Great talking to you, Todd.
• 22:59
  Todd Gleason: That's Mike Tanura. He is with T Storm Weather. Joined us on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. I'm Todd Gleeson. Doctor.
• 23:52
  JACKSON: