Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Non NFL Football Sunday? | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/6/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Non NFL Football Sunday? | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/6/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: out That fell apart by its heart But it don't
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: get the crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Sports Sunday, September 6th. Really bad day on the show yesterday.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: I need to change the banner to ice cold. Yeah, really,
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: really bad. Hold on, let me update it right now.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: If I remember what the numbers should be here, what
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: was it, one and four? I think I got this
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: right now. All right, that's the last 154 days. Did
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: I get that right? I think that's right. Yeah, great.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: Just fucking great. I don't know what else you want
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: me to say. Both college football plays lost. Liberty, not
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: a great game for them, although if you told me
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: that– that their opponent, JMU, was only going to score
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: 20 points. They'd be like, yeah, Liberty's going to cover that.
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: If their opponent only scores 20 points, you need them
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: to come within six and a half. Okay, yeah. Well,
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: they missed by a half point because they were losing
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: that game consistently by two scores throughout the game, and
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: then they had a chance, I'm pretty sure, at the end.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: They were going for a tying touchdown near the end,
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: and they couldn't get it done, and that was it.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: It came down to that. Very, very close to being
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: able to cover that at the end. Arkansas State was...
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Winning the game outright, like, midway through the game, that
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: was looking pretty good. They had a three-point lead, I think,
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: at one point. They completely blew that, and then for
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: the whole second half, it was like, they're down 11. Like,
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: it was like they were down by exactly 11 multiple
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: different times the second half. It looked like it was
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: going to finish that way, but no. Memphis scores another
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: touchdown near the end, and Arkansas State never scores again,
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: so they missed by a touchdown. You know, I don't
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: know what else to say about it, man. Then we have...
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: I believe they missed by a touchdown. Kansas City in
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: baseball was a push. They lost in the full game,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: so first five was the better play, but they had
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: to tie it in the fourth inning. They were not
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: able to get it done, but it was, I'll take
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: a push. I mean, whatever. The only winner was the
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: under in Yankee San Diego, and that wasn't really looking
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: good either. It was a 5-1 game midway through the game,
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: but the bullpens did hold and no more runs scored,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: so we did get that one right. And then Washington, L.A.,
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: that was just dead right away, that under. Never going
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: to happen. The first 500 didn't win either. I mean,
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: it was a five-run game in the third inning probably,
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: and it actually could have still gotten there for the
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: full game. It stayed that way. No runs scored for
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: like four innings in a row, and seventh inning was
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: still 3-2. Going into the seventh, I'm like, wow, we
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: actually have a chance here, even though I don't trust
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: these bullpens. But no, it didn't happen. I believe the
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: Dodgers won 6-5. Whatever, man. College football week two has
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: to be better. I'll talk about the college football games tonight.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to have any plays on the football
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: games today. It's going to be a light card. I
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: have two baseball plays. Almost had a third, but I
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: got some problems. I don't really love it. I don't know.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, I guess the big story in college football
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: was the Michigan-Western Michigan game, which was one of my
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: only winners in my pick seven entry, by the way.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: I did take Western Michigan as one of my picks there,
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: because when I only have three plays that I give
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: out on the week, I have to come up with
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: four more picks to add to that entry. That was
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: one of them, and that was a good one, Western Michigan.
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: Michigan couldn't score in the game, but if you guys
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: didn't see how it ended, Western Michigan was winning the
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: game 12-7, literally at the end of the game. Michigan
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: tried to throw a Hail Mary from midfield. It went
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: out of the back of the end zone. Game over, theoretically. Basically,
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: everybody said game over, final score, Western Michigan wins 12-7. No,
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: the refs, even though you never see this happen, you
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: never see a review. If it's a touchdown, it's going
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: to get reviewed. A scoring play is going to get reviewed.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: But no, it was thrown out of the back of
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: the end zone. But there was still a review, and
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: then the refs come back Oh, yeah, by the way,
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: the game's not over yet. There's actually one second left
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: on the clock because they said one of the Western
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Michigan defenders touched the ball with one second left, which,
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: by the way, that doesn't even make sense to me
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: unless he was... It might have been because he was
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: stepping out of bounds. Maybe that's why. Because the clock
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: doesn't end until the ball is out of bounds. You
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? But I guess what they were saying,
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: I guess, is that one of Western Michigan's defenders was
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: out of the back of the end zone and touched
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: the ball With one second left, which would mean that's
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: when the play ends rather than when it lands out
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: of bounds. I have no idea, dude. It gave Michigan
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: an extra play at the end. But, of course, who's
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: going to think they're going to actually score a 50-yard touchdown? Okay,
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: they get one second left, whatever. But, yeah, that's exactly
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: what happened. They threw a Hail Mary and they scored
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: a touchdown. It's one of the most ridiculous things that
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: you'll see. Pretty much bullshit, I would say. Western Michigan
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: is still covered, of course, but they did not win anything.
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: But it sets up some opportunities for us next week,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: although I would be saying the same thing. Whether or
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: not Michigan scored on that final play or not, we're
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: going to be looking to play on Michigan next week
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: because nobody's going to want them against an Oklahoma team
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: that looked great yesterday, but against a really bad team,
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: or two days ago, whatever it was, against a really
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: bad team. Michigan looked awful, so nobody's going to want
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: to be on Michigan. And we're going to be looking
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: to fade Western Michigan. This is why I love Week 2, man. Overreaction.
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: fade it like you find these situations Western Michigan there's
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: no way they're getting back up off the mat after
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: that so I hope they're not playing an FCS team
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: or something so we can fade Western Michigan next I'll
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: probably still give that out actually if they're playing an
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: FCS team why not I think I usually do like
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: when I have a situation that's that good I think
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: I will put an FCS team in the mix just
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: for that reason but yeah let's get through this board
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: today man I don't like what I'm seeing here We
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: got afternoon baseball, 12, 10 p.m. Eastern, Milwaukee, Cincinnati. Cincinnati
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: won yesterday to even up the series here. Cincinnati might
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: be a little bit more motivated just to try to
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: beat the top team in the division. Milwaukee is kind
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: of coasting right now, but they do still want the
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: number one overall seed if they can do it, which
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: would be between them and the Dodgers. Milwaukee used four
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday. They do have the better bullpen here. Remember,
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: September call-ups, so there are more relief arms that teams
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: can use here. Cincinnati used five relief pitchers here yesterday.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee's the better team all around, though. They got the
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. They're number six, although, like I keep saying,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: I think they're really probably number three or four. Cincinnati,
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: number 25. This is arranged by WIP. Offense arranged by OPS.
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee's number five. And Cincinnati is number 23. So, Milwaukee
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: has the edge in both teams. in both phases of
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: the game there. Kyle Harrison is pitching for Milwaukee. He's
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: the better starter here as well, but he's been shaky.
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: He's been particularly shaky on the road. Well, not even shaky.
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: He's been bad on the road. He's been good overall, 3.45 ERA,
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: although his whip is getting a little bit high, 1.2. 5.94
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: road ERA, though. He's been way worse on the road
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: than at home. I don't know exactly what's going on
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: with him, and his last start was awful. He gave
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: up five home runs to the Cubs last time out
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: on the road. That's not a good sign, man, although
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: his previous road start was fine against the Mets. He's
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: hard to predict, man. He has these starts where he
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: just gets totally blown up and gives up a bunch
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: of home runs, but then the rest of his starts,
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: he's really good pretty much. What are we going to
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: get out of him here? I kind of think he's
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: going to be better in this one, even though he's
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: not really trustworthy on the road. It's kind of hard
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: to say, man. He's got a reasonable hit rate here.
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: Walk rate is low. Strikeout rate is really high, so
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: those numbers are good. 4.5 strikeout walk ratio is the
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: highest he's ever had, which is very good. Also, the
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine, the highest, 10.9. Very good. Numbers against
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati are good, and 23 at-bats. Not a huge sample.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: They have six guys who have faced him. 174 average,
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: 704 OPS. That OPS is a little bit high because
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: Tyler Stevenson, Has two home runs off him, but nobody
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: else has an extra base hit against him. 7-3 strikeout
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. I do kind of lean towards Harrison bouncing
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: back here. Brady Singer is going to start for Cincinnati.
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: He's not that good. 4.83 ERA, 1.45 whip. He is
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: better at home, though. 4.08 home ERA, despite it being
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: a hitter friendly ballpark here but his last couple of
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: starts have not been good his last couple of home
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: starts really haven't really haven't been that good his command
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: numbers have been all right recently but he's been getting
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: hit pretty hard and Cincinnati's lost his last five starts
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: he gave up a lot of hits last time out
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: here at home against San Diego that's not good and
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: So I'm not going to say he's in great form
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: right now. His hit rate is way too high on
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: the season. He's been way too hittable. Allows a decent
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: amount of home runs, which is not good. Strikeout rate
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: is low. Walk rate is mediocre. Not great numbers here
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: from him. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is mediocre at best. 7.4
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine is pretty low as well. His numbers
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: against Milwaukee are actually not bad, though. 137 at-bats, 255 average,
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: 717 OPS average. 35-12 strikeout walk ratio. That number is
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: not even that bad, really. But, yeah, so his numbers
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: overall are not bad against Milwaukee. How do we handle this? Well,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: the money's coming in on the over. 67% of tickets
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: on the under, 83% of the cash on the over.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: Total at 8.5%. I understand the argument for it. The
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: argument would be Harrison's not good on the road. Neither
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: pitcher's in very good form right now. Singer is just
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: not good, basically. But the matchup numbers look good, and
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: I kind of think there's an argument for a first
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: five under here. But this game, it's very difficult to
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: figure this game out. There are arguments for going both
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: ways on the total here. First five under makes some sense.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: I would avoid the Reds' bullpen if I was going
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: to play the under, of course. But yeah, both pitchers
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: match up at least fairly well here. And the full
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: game total is in the middle of nowhere at 8.5,
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: so the oddsmakers aren't really telling you one way or
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: the other about how high or low scoring the game
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: is going to be. It's neither, basically. Money coming in
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: on Milwaukee, it looks like, as well, but they're very public.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: 85% of tickets, 91% of the cash on them, around
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: minus 160 on the money line. I mean, the public
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: is only going to come in on Milwaukee here. There
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: might be an argument for looking towards Cincinnati in the
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: first five or something just because Singer does have decent
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers. At least he has the better home road splits.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: You might be able to make an argument for playing
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati first five there. I wouldn't really want to do it.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: And Harrison is still the better overall pitcher. So there
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: is also an argument to just play Milwaukee in the
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: full game. So that game is all over the place, man.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: No strong opinion for me on that. It's a game
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: where there are arguments everywhere. You can make an argument
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: for anything that you really want in that game, which
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: means I'm not going to play it because there's no
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: strong argument that swings me completely in one direction. Atlanta
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: and Philadelphia on NBC. This is a split series as
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: well so far. Philadelphia bounced back and won yesterday. We
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: got the win in the first game of the series
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: with Philly returning home from the road trip. We faded
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: them and went with Atlanta. Philly got the win yesterday.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: Zach Wheeler, I guess, was somewhat back in form yesterday
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: and pitched pretty well. Philly used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Atlanta's got the better bullpen. Atlanta used two. Atlanta is
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: one of the top four bullpens, basically. They're number three
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: right now. You can make the argument they're the third-best bullpen,
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: something like that. Philadelphia, nowhere near as good at number 18.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: Atlanta is the better offense as well. They're number 11. Philadelphia,
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: number 19. However, Philadelphia is better at home. Atlanta's going
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: with Tyler Molle. He's been really good since Atlanta got him.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: His overall numbers here, mediocre, 4.25 ERA, 1.29 whip. They
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: got him in the trade deadline, and he's been good
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: since they did that, even though he's had bad road
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: numbers on the season, 6.16 road ERA. But with Atlanta,
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: that hasn't been the case. They got him from San Francisco.
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: He's made two road starts, three home starts, and all
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: of them have been good. He hasn't given up more
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: than two earned runs in any of them. He's got
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: a 41-7 strikeout walk ratio. That is what he posted
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: in August. I think the last one of those starts
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: was with San Francisco against San Diego, and he actually
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: wasn't that good in that one. But all of his
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: starts with Atlanta, I believe, have been good. It's just
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: like maybe he just gets more motivated, man, being on
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: a better team. That does happen with some guys. So
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: even though his road numbers are terrible, he's obviously in
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: good form right now, and I would not want to
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: fade him. He's been pretty good against Philly, too, and
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: a big sample of 101 at-bats, 257 average allowed. 664 OPS,
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: 26-11 strikeout walk ratio. That's not good, but eight of
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: the walks are Schwarber, so he pitches around him. But
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: other than that, he does pretty well. Although the main
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: guys in that lineup do hit him okay, but for
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: the most part, he does hold that lineup down. So
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: I think Molly should do well here. Aaron Nola's pitching
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: for Philly. He's been way better recently, like finally– regaining
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: some of his form after he's been really trying to
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: come back from injury for like almost two entire seasons
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: now but like i said at the end of last
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: year he started looking good again then he regressed again
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: and this year he wasn't good he used to be
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: good before his injuries but now he does look good
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: again recently overall numbers don't impress obviously 4.93 era 1.4
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: whip 5.72 home era is really ugly he's way worse
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: at home but He hasn't allowed more than 300 runs
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: in any start going all the way back into July.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: And he's only done that once since the beginning of July.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: And the last time he did that was the end
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: of June. He's pitching way better, man. Had an ERA
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: in the twos in August. Pretty much good numbers just
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: across the board in August. So he's obviously pitching way
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: better recently. He's got a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio, which
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: is fine. 9.5 strikeout per nine is good. Against Atlanta,
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: 291 average allowed, 895 OPS. So he does not have
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: good numbers against Atlanta in a massive sample size. This
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: is one of the biggest sample sizes you'll see. 388
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: at bats. 103 to 31 strikeout walk ratio. So Atlanta's
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: very familiar with him. And in this huge sample size,
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: they've done a lot of damage against him. Acuna and
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: Austin Riley both have really good numbers against him. I
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: think those are the top two. You know, if you
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: want player props over, hits plus runs plus RBIs over,
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: those two guys look like solid plays there. I'm going
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: to lean Atlanta here, man. I know Molly's not good
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: on the road, but he's got the better matchup numbers here.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Both pitchers in good form, though. When I first looked
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: at this, I was thinking possibly an under in this
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: game because both pitchers are pitching well recently. Although I
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: think Atlanta might be the better way to look here.
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: And the money is completely agreeing with that. 51% of
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: tickets on Philly. which surprises me. I thought Atlanta would
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: be a public side here because they have the better record,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: and they have the pitcher that people probably look at
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: and see, well, he has the better numbers here. 89%
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Atlanta. I do agree with that.
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: It's like a pick-em price here. It would be full
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: game because you get the advantage of their bullpen as well.
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: The full game totals at 8, and the money's actually
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: playing the over, but it looks like it's a really
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: public over, so I still lean under in that game
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: as well, but I think.
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: Maybe a first five under so you avoid Philly's bullpen,
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: but I'd prefer Atlanta if I was going to play
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: that game. I would play Atlanta to bounce back. And
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: I did forget to run through the Molly overall strike-up
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: stats here. Strike-up walk ratio is 2.9, it looks like,
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: which is not bad. Right around 3 is fairly average. 8.7
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: strike-up per 9 is somewhat average as well. All right.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Anaheim at Pittsburgh. That one... Man, I mean, the only
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: reason that one's kind of off my card right now
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: is because Nola's been in good form recently and I
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: don't really want to fade him. And Molly has bad
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: road numbers. So those are the only things kind of
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: keeping me off of that one. Anaheim and Pittsburgh, this
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: one almost made the cut for me. Like if I
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: was going to add another play, this one was very
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: close to being on my card. I like the under
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: in this game, but the thing is the bullpens are bad,
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: so it's like you'd have to cut the game in
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: half probably, play the first five, and I don't know
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: if I should trust either of these pitchers here right
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: now at this point, so I'm going to leave it alone,
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: but I do like the under in this one. I
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: don't like either bullpen. Anaheim used three guys yesterday. Pittsburgh
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: used two. I believe each team has won one game
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: in the series, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, so Anaheim
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: won yesterday. Okay, Pittsburgh, their bullpen is, where are they at?
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: Number 19. I mean, they're not that bad, I guess.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Angels are number 22. Pittsburgh does have the slightly better bullpen.
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is the way better offense, especially when they're at home.
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: Number six offensively. Anaheim is dead last, 30th. So Pittsburgh
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: does have a big edge there. I do like both
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: these starters in general. Walbert Ureña is getting the start
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: for the Angels. He's a rookie, and he's had a
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: good season, 2.85 ERA, 1.26 whip. You'd like to see
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: a little better. His problem is he walks too many guys,
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: but the rest of his numbers are quite good across
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: the board, so he gets away with walking people. He's
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: not quite as good on the road, 3.57 road ERA,
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: which is still obviously not bad. So I think he
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: is still backable on the road. He did have a
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: really good start last time out against the Yankees, but
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: that was at home. where he does pitch better, and
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: I feel like I probably, to me, I don't know,
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: was that a game where I gave out a first
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: five under or something like that, and I have no
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: idea if it hit or not, but yeah, Urania, really
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: his only problem is the walks here, he's not allowing
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: that many runs, he has not allowed many hits on
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: the season, his strikeout rate is pretty good, but his
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: walk rate, quite bad, he does get a lot of
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: ground balls though, strikeout walk ratio 1.9. That does scare me.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: That's very, very low. Even though I like him, I
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: think he's good. He's got enough talent that he basically
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: is overcoming this horrendous walk number here. 8.8 strikeout per
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: nine isn't even really that high, but he's able to
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: get a lot of ground balls. He's able to not
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: allow many hits. Pittsburgh's never seen him before, so Urania
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: does have the unfamiliarity edge here, which is something that
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: I look for. So the offense might struggle a little
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: bit going up against him because they haven't seen him.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: His innings pitch count isn't really high enough to have
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: to worry about him yet, in my opinion. So I
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: do think he should pitch well here. A couple of
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: things against him, though. We really don't like the walk numbers,
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: although I've backed him multiple times this year anyway. I
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: don't love him on the road, necessarily. And opposing him
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: would be Paul Skeens for Pittsburgh. Dude, he's still impossible
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: to figure out. I tried to back him in under
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: in the last game, and it went totally horribly. Totally horribly, yes. 3.97 ERA, 1.16
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: whip from him. Good numbers, but nowhere near what he
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: would normally post. So, something wrong with Skeens here this year, man.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: He has been better at home slightly. 3.94 home ERA.
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: He had a really good start two starts ago, and
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: it looked like his stuff was back. Didn't strike out
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: that many guys, though. Then last start, he was terrible
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: again against a bad San Francisco lineup here at home.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: What are we supposed to do with Skeens, man? Like, I... Normally,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: I'd be backing him here by playing the under here.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: This looks like it should be an under game. This
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: just really concerns me. Skeen's current form, it's all over
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: the place. It looks bad, even though overall he's got
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: a high strikeout rate, still has a low hit rate.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is still not too bad. Strikeout walk ratio, 4.1,
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: although he's been above 5. his first two seasons, and
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: he posted a one-something ERA his first two seasons with
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: a sub-one whip, so obviously this season's been a lot worse.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with him, man. 10.8
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine is around where it was last year,
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: so that's not bad. His numbers against Anaheim are pretty
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: good in a very small sample. Five hitters have faced
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: him here, 17 at-bats, one extra base hit as a
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: double from low, seven strikeouts, no walks. 235 average allowed
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: 529 OPS so both pitchers have some unfamiliarity here that
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: should help them I like the under here the money
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: appeared to be agreeing with me when I looked earlier
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: let me say yeah we have 58% of tickets on
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: the over 65% of the cash on the under the
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: total is very low seven and a half juice to
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: the under so the odds makers seem to be saying
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: yeah it'll be low scoring the money seems to be
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: on the under I agree with it. I don't like
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: the bullpens. Like I said, I mean, you could cut
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the game in half, play the first five under, but
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: you're going to be looking at a three probably if
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: you do that. And, you know, I get really worried
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: about that number. It's just not a great number. I
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: still agree with it, though. I would find a way
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: to play the under in some way if I was
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: going to play it. You could go full game and
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: just hope the pitchers get you deep enough into the
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: game that you don't have to worry as much about
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: the bullpens, and you'll be on that key number at least,
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: seven and a half, with the juice on the under
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: at least. Pittsburgh is public, of course, because it's Skeens.
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: 86% of tickets, 88% of the cash on them at
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: around minus 200. There's no way I would lay a
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: price like that. You're still having to pay way too
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: much for Paul Skeens, especially given what his current form
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: looks like. If you think both pitchers are actually going
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: to do well here, you can definitely make the case
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: that Urania... can kind of hang around here and battle
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: schemes in the first five. I would not back Anaheim's bullpen,
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: but I think you could make the argument for playing
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Anaheim in the first five in that game as well
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: on like a run line or something. All right, next
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: game up is my Red Sox at Baltimore. Red Sox
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: are on the verge of a sweep here, and you
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: know what I always say, I like to back the
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: home team when they're trying to avoid a sweep, although
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox do not have a big series up next.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: They're playing Anaheim next, which is not big, but still,
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: I like playing home teams trying to avoid the sweep here.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: The series has gotten a little bit chippy because two
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: games ago, Blaze Alexander basically stuck out his arm when
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: he was sliding into second base, and you can't do that, man.
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: He was trying to mess with Trevor Story, hit him
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: with his arm or something, and Red Sox took offense
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: to that, and rightfully so, and the bench is cleared,
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: although nothing really happened. And then yesterday it seemed like
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: there was some spillover from that and people were still,
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: you know, the players were still kind of angry about
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: it and whatever. We'll see if that continues into today,
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: but I'm going to do an unpopular thing here. This
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: is actually going to be one of my plays. And
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: we are going to take Baltimore in the first five here, man.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: Baltimore to avoid the sweep. And I know I'm fading
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: Peyton Tolley, who is the better starter here, but The
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers and the situation support this, in my opinion.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: I do not want to back Baltimore's bullpen against the
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: Red Sox, though. Knowing my luck, though, we're probably going
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: to lose the first five play, and then the Red
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: Sox are going to somehow find a way to lose
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: the game so that it's a double whammy. You know
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: what I mean? The perfect thing for me to happen
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: here would be Baltimore covers the first five, but the
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: Red Sox still win. That would be what I want
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: as a Red Sox fan. Red Sox used three relief
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. They're better relievers now. Did not pitch yesterday, though.
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: They do have a lot of good relief pitchers, though.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: Baltimore used two guys out of their bullpen, but the
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: Red Sox are the better bullpen. They're ranked number one
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: in WIP, number two in ERA. Baltimore is, where are
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: they at? Number 11. They're not a horrible bullpen. Red
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: Sox have been hitting pretty well recently. They're number eight
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: overall in offense. Baltimore is number 21, so the Red
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: Sox have the edge there as well. And on the surface,
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox have the better pitcher here, Peyton Tolley.
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: Good season from him, 3.23 ERA, 1.1 whip. I mean,
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: he's become one of my favorite players because, you know,
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: I love his attitude. And if you saw his start
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: against Seattle, which was, was that his last start or
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: was it two starts ago? No, it was his last start.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: He wasn't great in that start, but he was good enough.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: They won in extra innings. In fact, they've gone extra
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: innings in his last three starts. So that does kind
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: of indicate towards the dog here that, The dog might
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: be able to kind of hang around in a totally
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: game potentially, but... In the Seattle game, there was this
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: hilarious play where it was Canzoni, I think, grounded it
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: right back to the pitcher, kind of a soft bouncer
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: to the pitcher. Totally grabbed it, and it looked like
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: he was going to run over to first base or
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: maybe just underhand it to first base to get the out.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: And instead, because he was about to run into Canzoni
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: on the baseline anyway, he ran up to him and
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: hugged him out, basically. That was the way that he
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: tagged him out. He bear-hugged him. I'm like, man... Yeah,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: I love this Toley guy, man. He rules. Anyway, he's
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: been good this season. He's been good on the road, too. 2.59
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: road ERA. A little bit worse recently, though, like not
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: going as deep into some of his starts here. I mean,
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox have still won most of his recent starts,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: but they've won all but one of them going all
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: the way back to July 1st was the previous time
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: they lost a start that he made besides the August
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: 19th one that they lost in extra innings against Arizona.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: He's still been pretty good, man. I mean, he's striking
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: out a lot of guys, not putting many guys on base,
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: but going less deep into games recently, a little bit concerning.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Has a low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: All that stuff's good. Four strikeout walk ratio, quite solid. 10.1
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine, also really solid. My problem is he's
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: not good against Baltimore. He's got 30 at-bats against them.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: Ten strikeouts is good with three walks. That's fine. 300
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: batting average, though, and 864 OPS. So these guys have
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: hit him well. Mostly Gunnar Henderson doing a lot of
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: that damage. But, yeah, and Encarnacion Strand has a home
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: run against him as well. So, yeah, I don't exactly
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: love how Toley matches up here. He's faced Baltimore twice already,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: but he did actually shut them out at home for
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: six innings the last time, or three. No, that was
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: the first time he faced them this year. The second
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: time he faced them, the more recent time, had a
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: lot of strikeouts, and the Red Sox won. But Baltimore
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: did get a lot of hits off him in that game,
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: and he gave up four runs. So he was not
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: as good in that one. So I think Baltimore had
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: kind of figured him out a little bit. And we
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: are actually back in Kyle Braddish here. Braddish pitching for Baltimore.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: He's a guy who used to be good before. I
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: think he had some injuries and stuff. He's got a 4.01
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: ERA this year. 1.42 whip is definitely not good. I'm
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: not going to try to claim that it is, but
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: he's definitely way better at home. 3.46 home ERA, so
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: he's in the better of his home road splits here.
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Pitched pretty well last time out in Coors Field, which
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: that's a reasonable sign that he's kind of coming back
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: into form after he had a couple of bad outings here.
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: I believe, yeah, he did face the Red Sox once
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: this year, and he actually wasn't that good here at
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: home against them. However... He is actually good against them
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: overall in 60 at-bats, 20-5 strikeout walk ratio, 200 average,
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: 645 OPS allowed. So Bradish has the better matchup numbers here.
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: And overall, his hit rate is only okay. His walk
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: rate is definitely a huge problem. And his strikeout rate
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: is mediocre. So yeah, the walk ratio is really bad. 2.1
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. And I know I'm trying to make
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: a case to back him here. I'm just saying... I'm
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: just going over all of his numbers here. If you
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: look at what he's done in the past, he had
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: three really good seasons in a row, although the last
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: full season that he pitched was 2023, and then he
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: was very injury plagued the last couple seasons but his
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: numbers were very good over those three seasons so I
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: think at some point he's going to kind of come
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: back to form here because he's still in his 20s
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: he's not that old his strikeout per nine here is
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: one of the lowest that he's had it is the
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: lowest 8.3 so his stuff isn't quite there right now
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: but he's definitely capable pitching well and he's got the
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers we have the situation to support this year
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: the market read supports this as well 90% of the
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: tickets on the Red Sox the public all over the
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: Red Sox here because they're hot again 76% of the
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: cash on them so the money is fading them they're
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: about a minus 140 favorite and we get a decent
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: underdog price even in the first five here with Baltimore,
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: where they should have a little bit more of an edge. So, yeah,
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: we'll take it. Baltimore is an underdog in the first five.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: Money's also slightly on the over 7.5 here, but I
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: think there are more reasons to play the under here.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: I think both pitchers might actually pitch all right here.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: They're both... Like, overall, they're both decent pitchers, I would say,
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: and or good pitchers. If Bradish were to return to
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: his previous form, you'd have two good pitchers here, and
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: you have two fairly good bullpens as well. So... Red Sox,
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: definitely good. Baltimore, not too bad. But yes, I like
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: the side in that one. The other thing to point
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: out is that Baltimore is also in one of those
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: spots where they got shut out as a home team.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: And a lot of times those teams have a tendency
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: to bounce back in the next game. So another motivator
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: for Baltimore there. All right, Cubs at Miami. I took
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: a look at this game because the Cubs are on
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: the verge of a sweep here. Miami is trying to
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: avoid the sweep. They're a home team trying to avoid
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: a sweep here. Cubs have a big series up next
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: against Milwaukee, so it definitely could be a look ahead
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: for the Cubs here. But I looked at this pitching matchup,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: and I was just like, I can't do it, man.
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: I can't back Miami here, even though the situation supports it,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: given that Chicago might look ahead to Milwaukee, and they
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: might overlook Miami after basically pretty much sweeping them out
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: of Miami here, winning the series already at least. Cubs
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: used four relief pitchers yesterday. Miami used four as well.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: The Cubs.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: Probably a little bit disadvantaged in the bullpen here. Miami's
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: number nine. The Cubs are number 13. It's hard to say.
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: Miami's been ranked the better bullpen all year, pretty much.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: Cubs have a slightly better ERA, though, but I think
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: we have two decent bullpens here is the way to
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: look at it. Cubs are the number one offense still,
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: and they're really kind of running away with it. The
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: Dodgers have fallen off a little bit. Cubs' offense has
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: been explosive, man. Miami is number 12 here, tied with
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: Houston and the White Sox. So Cubs have the offensive
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: edge here. Cubs going with Clay Holmes here. Holmes has
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: had a pretty good season. 2.09 ERA, 1.07 whip. He
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: missed a bunch of the middle of the season because
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: he had a broken leg. And then he came back
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: and he wound up on a different team because he
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: was on the Mets before. But now he's on a
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: team that actually has a chance, the Cubs. He's got
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: a 2.41 road ERA, so his road ERA is a
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: little bit higher than his home ERA, but his road
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: opponent batting average is actually lower. So you could argue
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: he's maybe a little bit better on the road. You
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: could argue he's not. It's not really that significant. He
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four starts.
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: Since the Cubs got him, he had one bad start
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: against Kansas City at Kansas City, and then since then
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: he's been pretty much lights out. He's only allowed one run.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: since then which is insane his strikeout rate hasn't really
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: been that good although he did ramp it up over
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: his last couple starts walk rate has been kind of
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: mediocre but really it's the it's the strikeout rate really
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: that's too low here he doesn't strike guys out but
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: he's a ground ball pitcher that's what he does he
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: gets guys to hit it on the ground uh so
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: you got to have good infielders behind you if you're
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: going to do that he has a pretty low hit
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: rate on the season hasn't really thrown many innings at
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: all this season So he should be fresh at least.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: His walk number is not that good. His strikeout rate
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: is really kind of the main concern. He just doesn't
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: strike guys out. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is not great.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: And 6.9 strikeout per nine, also not great. But he's
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: been effective nonetheless because he gets so many ground ball
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: outs and stuff like that. Although I always talk about
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: how that can mask other deficiencies and those types of
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: pitchers can regress a bit. Holmes has been good against
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Miami though. And 43 at bats, they only have one
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: extra base hit A double from Lopez, who's really the,
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: he's one of two guys in this lineup that do
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: any damage against Holmes, basically. The other one, Griffin Conine,
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: with three singles. And yes, he is Jeff Conine's son,
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: playing for one of his father's same teams, Miami. So
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: I remember Jeff Conine playing. I'm like, oh, Griffin Conine.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: I'm like, is he his son? Yes, actually, he is.
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: All right, 209 batting average for Holmes against Miami. 579 OPS.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: 15-9 strikeout walk ratio is not good. But again, he
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: never posts a good strikeout walk ratio, but generally he's
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: good against Miami. Tyler Phillips is getting a start for Miami,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: which I talk about how some of these games you
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: could go action and not pick a starter because a
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: lot of times there'll be an opener in front of
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: some of these guys. Phillips has been starting recently, so
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: I assume he's just going to start. He's made 16
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: starts at this point, so you probably don't really need
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: to do that if you're going to play this game. Phillips, 3.43 ERA. 1.33
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: whip is not very good, though. He is good at home, though.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: He's significantly better at home. 2.12 home ERA. A more
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: pitcher-friendly park here. Shut out Kansas City on the road
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: in a non-pitcher-friendly park last time out for five innings.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: He did really well in that start. He's been all
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: right recently. He's not exactly going deep into most of
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: these outings, but he's not allowing too many runs, although
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: his team is losing a lot of these games anyway.
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: But some of it isn't his fault. He's got an
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: okay hit rate here. His walk rate is a little
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: bit high. His strikeout rate's a little bit low. So
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: those numbers aren't exactly good. 1.9 strikeout walk ratio is
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: definitely not good. 7.3 strikeout per nine is actually pretty
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: good and better than what he's posted in the past.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: So he's had a little bit better strikeout stuff this season.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: But he's struggled against the Cubs, although it's a small sample,
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: 10 at-bats. Six of their hitters have faced him. But
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: they have a 500 average, 1445 OPS against him. 1-1
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. And Tyrone Taylor has a home run
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: off him. So I don't really want to do it.
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: The situation does say Miami here. You know, so if
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: you're going to just play the situation, I'm not going
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: to really disagree necessarily with it. 82% of the tickets
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: on the Cubs, 76% of the cash on Miami. So
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: the market read is definitely saying Miami here. The Cubs
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: are around minus 140 on the money line here. It
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: looks like money's coming in on the, well, it looks
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: like it's a public over, although the money is slightly
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: also indicating on the over, the over eight, but I
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: don't know. This seems to me like more of an
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: under type of game. I think both pitchers might actually
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: pitch all right here. Phillips better at home. Holmes has
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: just been decent pretty much and has good matchup numbers.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: At least Phillips, though, does not have good matchup numbers.
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: So if you're going to play the matchup numbers, the
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: Cubs would be the way to go here. But the
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: situation definitely seems to be factoring into the market here.
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: The real money is on Miami. That's what I'll say
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: about that. I don't think I want to do it
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: because the matchup really kind of supports the opposite, but yeah,
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: the situation does support Miami here. The money is supporting
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Miami and some of it has to do with the price.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: Like should the Cubs really be favored by this much
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: on the road is another question here in a spot
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: like this with a non elite pitcher on the mountain,
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: Clay Holmes.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's been good though. Um, All right, that's
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: what I got to say about that game. Detroit and Cleveland.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Detroit did steal a game yesterday after losing the doubleheader
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: of the game before that. Cleveland lost 6-0 yesterday with
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: Parker Messick on the mound. I'm pretty surprised by that.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: But Cleveland now falls into one of those spots where
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: they got shut out at home. So a lot of
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: times that team will bounce back after they get shut
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: out at home. And Cleveland should have the pitching edge
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: in this game too. So I think Cleveland is definitely
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: going to be the right side here in this game.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: The problem is I don't really like the price. for
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: a team that has no offense like Cleveland. Cleveland's bullpen,
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: they only used two guys, I think, out of the
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: bullpen yesterday. So their bullpen will be pretty intact here.
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: Detroit used two guys as well, though. I think Cleveland
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: is a slightly better bullpen. They're number 14. Detroit number 16.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: Detroit's ERA is over four, though, which is not exactly great.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: Detroit struggling offensively recently. They're number 20, but Cleveland's been
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: awful all year. They're 29th offensively, so Detroit has the
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: better offense here. Detroit's going with Jackson Jobe starting, though.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: He's not that good. 4.63 ERA this year. 1.46 whip.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: Not great. He's been way better on the road for
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: some reason. 2.93 road ERA. It's a really small sample, though.
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: He's only made five starts so far. He's had a
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: couple of good ones in here. Probably more bad than good,
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: I would say, though. His hit rate is a little
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: bit too high, more than one per inning. Way too
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: many walks. His strikeout rate is okay. He does get
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: a lot of ground balls, but nothing really spectacular here. 1.9
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is definitely not good. 7.3 strikeout per
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: nine is mediocre at best. His numbers against Cleveland are
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: not great. They only have six guys who have faced him, though.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: Small sample, 13 at-bats, but they have a. 308 average,
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: 896 OPS, no strikeouts in one walk against him. So
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: I do not trust Jobe, and I do, in fact,
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: trust Gavin Williams on the other side. Williams has been
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: awesome this year for Cleveland. 3.81 ERA, 1.09 whip. Cleveland's
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: got a pretty good starting rotation, man. sneakily. They're going
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: to have a pretty dangerous playoff rotation, I think, with Messick, Williams,
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: now that they have Foster Griffin in there as well,
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: to bolster their rotation. Cantillo really isn't even that bad either,
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: except he's wild. And then, of course... Bybee isn't bad either.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: Williams has a 3.01 home ERA. He's been good at home.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: He's been striking out a ton of guys. A lot
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: of double-digit strikeout numbers in here, including his last start,
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: which was a great bounce-back start from him, just destroying
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: Toronto in his last start. He might be back in
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: form here, although he's kind of been alternating good and
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: bad starts, though. And if he does that, that means
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: he's going to be bad here, but I don't think
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: that's actually going to be the case. He has a
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: really low hit rate on the season. His walk rate is...
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: Not excellent. He does allow too many home runs, but
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: he strikes out a ton of guys. Huge strikeout rate
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: and really low hit rate. He's really difficult to hit.
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: His strikeout walk ratio is almost double what he's had
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: in the past. So he's having his best season by far.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: Even though his numbers weren't even that bad last year,
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: but this year, 4.3 strikeout walk ratio. He's reached another
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: level this year, man. And 12 strikeout per nine. Really,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: really good. And it feels like nobody's talking about Williams,
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: but he's been awesome this year. You could debate him.
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: You could make the argument he's better than Messick, dude.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: Williams against Detroit has been good. 84 career at-bats here,
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: although only 7 of their hitters have faced him. 35-8
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, 202 average allowed, 593 OPS. Yeah, so
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: the only way I would play this game is Cleveland.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: Should we actually do it? I mean... I considered it.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: 78% of tickets, 93% of the cash on them. The
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: money looks like it's agreeing with them, even though the
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: public is on them. Both teams are fighting for playoff
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: positioning here. Cleveland, you know, is in the better shape here.
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: I think still holding on to the top wildcard spot,
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: or excuse me, to the last wildcard spot, if I'm
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: not mistaken. Detroit would at least be motivated to try
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: to spoil Cleveland's season, though. You know what I mean?
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: Detroit's not going to roll over here. But, yeah, I
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: would only play Cleveland here anyway, though. The problem is
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: their offense sucks, and this total's really low. The total's
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: at seven, so can Cleveland score enough to justify this
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: minus 170 price tag on them here? I don't know.
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: You'd have to make it a minus one run line.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: That's what I would do if I was going to
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: play this game. I would do a minus one run
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: line on this thing. Uh, the money is indicating towards
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: the under, by the way. I mean, I guess one
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: thing you could do, I guess is Detroit under teams.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: Odell is an option here, but again, that's, it's a really,
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: really risky way to play it because you're going to
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: need them to score two or less probably if you
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: really want to do it that way. Um, which is,
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: you know, one fluke thing could happen and then you're fucked.
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I like Cleveland in this one. I just
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: don't think I could justify the price on it, but yeah, that's,
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: it's one of the stronger opinions that I have today though,
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: for sure. Um, Yeah, unfortunately, I think I have to
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: leave it off the card, but I do like Cleveland
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: in that one. I might like it more, now that
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: I think about it, I might like it more than
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: that under in the Skeens game, although I still like
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: the under in that Skeens game, too. But, yeah, this
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: one feels more correct to me, though. All right.
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: Mr.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: Pinsley, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Did you watch
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: Bald last night? I'm going to plug it at the
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: end of the show. I had Clint back on. Liberty
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: lockdown for an episode of bald where we talked about
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: what we think is going to happen. Um, do you
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: want me to tell you or, you know, or do
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: you like, cause it's a spoiler. If you plan on
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: watching it, I changed my opinion because I think when
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: I did my earlier NFL preview, I was saying, I
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: thought maybe like chiefs and 49ers had the best like value.
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: But then I was kind of thinking like, those are
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: two kind of long shots to make it. So I
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: don't know, but, I still have one of those teams
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: in the Super Bowl, but I have them losing. But
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: I went with one of the teams that's favored to win, though,
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: so it's kind of like, I don't know. All right,
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: so do you want me to leave it a mystery
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: then until you watch it? San Francisco and the Mets here.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: This is an ugly series. Two teams that are going nowhere.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: They've split the first two games. The Mets won game one.
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: San Francisco won yesterday. I'm a little bit surprised, I guess,
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: by that. I mean, I think I thought the Mets
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: were the right side in both of those first two games.
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: San Francisco has put up some runs in the series.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: San Francisco used five relief pitchers yesterday. I still don't
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: think their offense is good, though. The Mets only used two,
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: and the Mets definitely have the better bullpen, and they
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: have the rest edge here. They're number eight in bullpen.
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: Giants are number 24. Neither offense is good, although the
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: Giants are 15th right now, tied with the Yankees and
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: the Royals. I still don't think the Giants are a
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: good offense today. Mets are definitely not. They're number 26,
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: so I still think we're dealing with two bad offenses,
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: even though both games have gone over the total in
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: this series so far. San Francisco's going with Cesar Perdomo.
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: I have no idea who this guy is. He's young.
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: He's got good numbers so far, but he's only made
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: one start. He started at Pittsburgh. No, he didn't start.
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: He came in in relief, but it was in a
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: crazy game against Pittsburgh where Pittsburgh won 13-12. That was
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: that Skeens game where... It was Skeens and Logan Webb,
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: I think, and we lost on the under in that
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: game terribly. Perdomo pitched in relief, and he was good
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: in that game, man. He kept San Francisco in that game.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: He went four innings in relief, one run allowed, four strikeouts,
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: one walk, three hits allowed. That's pretty good against a
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: good hitting lineup like Pittsburgh at home. Yeah, so Perdomo
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: might actually be good. I haven't really looked up his
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: background yet, so I don't know much about him. He's
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: listed as a relief pitcher, though, so if you want
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: to play this game, you might want to pick action
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: on San Francisco's side because he might not actually be
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: the starter, but he might because they let him go
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: four innings last time, so he might just start, and
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: they might let him go four or five innings. It's
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: a good indicator, though, that he did pitch quite well
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: in that game against Pittsburgh, so we'll see. The Mets
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: have never faced him before. The Mets are a much
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: weaker offense than Pittsburgh, so Perdomo might actually pitch pretty
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: well here. And on the other side, Christian Scott is
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Mets here. He's been all right. We
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: backed him a few times this year. 3.8 ERA. 1.31
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: whip is not really that good. So he's been pitching
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: worse recently. He's better at home slightly. 3.59 home ERA.
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: Last few starts have not been as good, though. I mean,
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: his ERA in August was over 6%. that's not good,
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: and he had way too many walks, 28 to 14
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, not good, it's really his last two
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: starts that have been the worst, pretty much, like, he's
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: not going deep into these outings anymore, walking way too
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: many guys, he's got to turn this around somehow, man,
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: his innings pitch count is not high yet, so I
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: don't think it's really that he's tiring out or anything,
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: he's got a reasonable hit rate, he's got a good
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate, but his walk rate is Really too high
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: at this point. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio. You should not
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: have a ratio that low if your strikeout per nine
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: is 10.7, which is what his is. So he's a
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: good strikeout pitcher, but he's wild. He might do well here, though,
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: because San Francisco's never faced him before, so he does
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: have that unfamiliarity edge. And he is a guy that
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: can fool major league hitters. A lot of strikeout potential there, so...
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: I think this game is finally an under. That would
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: be my opinion. Finally, one game goes under in this series.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: 74% of tickets, 91% of the cash on the over, though.
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: I don't agree. The total's pretty low. It's at 8
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: or 7.5 here. I think if I was going to
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: play the game, I would take the shot with the under.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: It's a little bit hard to predict, man, because we
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: really don't know what we're going to get out of
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: these two starters here. Scott is not really in great form,
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: as I showed you. Perdomo is a total mystery to me,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. It seems like it should be
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: an under to me, but there's no way I'm going
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: to actually do that. 78% of the tickets, 90% of
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: the cash on the Mets at about minus 160. I
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: think the argument for that would be that Scott's just
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: the more established pitcher here, and the Mets also do
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpen here. Do what you want with
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: that info. I mean, I'm not necessarily going to disagree
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: with the Mets, but they're also a team that doesn't
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: score well, and you're asking the Mets to cover as
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: a pretty big favorite. You're going to need to lay
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: a minus one run line if you play the Mets there.
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: I don't love that idea, although the bullpen should be
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: a pretty significant advantage for them, in my opinion. Hockey
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: underdog bets on the San Jose Sharks. Some of my
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: hockey underdogs are pretty good. Oh, you do me in
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: the San Jose Sharks? Yeah, I don't know. I mean,
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: I don't know how many times I gave them out
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: as a play last year. It was probably more than once,
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. I felt like it wasn't too
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: many times, but I don't know. All right, Arizona and Houston.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: These teams have split the games in this series so far, too.
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: They've been low scoring close games. Kind of surprisingly, I think,
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: although I did think Arizona was in a bounce back
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: spot yesterday and had the better starting pitching matchup because
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: I think it was fought yesterday. Arizona was able to
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: win the game 4-3. The bullpens, I think, are somewhat
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: evenly matched here. Houston used a lot of guys, though.
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: They used five guys yesterday, and I don't mean they
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: were eating burgers. Arizona used four. Arizona has been ranked
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: the higher bullpen all year. They're number five, but I
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: still don't like the ERA being above four. Houston's ERA
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: is also above four, though, and they're number 12, so
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: I guess you do probably have to give the bullpen
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: edge to Arizona here. Houston's the better offense. Houston is
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: number 12, tied with Miami and the White Sox. Arizona's 22nd.
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: They've been... Kind of a weak offense most of the season,
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: but they've been a little bit better since the All-Star break,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: I believe. Arizona's going with Erod today. Eduardo Rodriguez. He's
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: had a good season. He continues to baffle the advanced
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: analytics guys because they think he's going to regress, and
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: it hasn't really happened. 2.59 ERA. 1.22 whip is not outstanding,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: but it's fine enough. I mean, he's obviously been effective
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: this year. I don't want to say he's been slightly
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: better on the road. His ERA is slightly better, but
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: his opponent batting average is higher on the road, so
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: I don't actually think he's better on the road, but
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: he's fairly consistent. He's not significantly better or worse home
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: or away. Last time out, he had kind of a
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: mediocre outing against Philly. It wasn't really that good, but
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: he was pitching really well prior to that, and he
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: still held Philly to three runs. in five innings so
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: he almost got a quality start out of that one
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: so I'm not going to say he's pitching terribly right
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: now because he isn't most of the season he's been
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: good he does have a low hit rate his walk
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: rate is okay the knock on him is that he
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: doesn't strike anybody out at this point in his career
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: his strikeout walk ratio is a very low 2.2 so
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: advanced analytics guys yeah they don't like that I don't
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: like it either but he's not putting that many guys
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: on base he's been pretty effective anyway His strikeout per
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: nine is way down, 6.6. He used to be way
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: more of a strikeout pitcher than this. So, yeah, obviously
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: going through Tommy John surgery or whatever the hell has
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: definitely affected him. But he's had a good season. However,
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: he's not good against Houston. They have 99 at-bats against him,
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: a 313 average, 777 OPS, 20-6 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to back Erod here. He's been
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: pitching all right, but he was a little bit shaky
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: in his last start. Arizona did lose that one, and
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: he's not good against Houston specifically. Houston's going with Peter Lambert.
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: He's been pitching worse recently, too. He's had a breakout season.
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good this season. 3.66 ERA, but 1.24
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: whip is very mediocre, and he's not as good at
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: home at this point. 4.04 home ERA. Those opponent batting
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: averages good, both home and away still. He's not pitching
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: well recently, though. His ERA was 5.76 in August. His
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: walk number went way up. So he's definitely been struggling here,
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: not going deep into most of these recent outings. He's
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: not exactly in great form here. Over the course of
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: the season, though, low hit rate, his walk rate has
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: been one of the main issues with him. That is
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: really the issue with him is the walks. He walks
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: too many guys. His strikeout rate is pretty good, though. 2.3
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, definitely not good, but 8.9 strikeout per nine.
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: best that he's ever posted so that's good but he
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: does seem to be fading as the season goes on
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: he is getting up there in innings as well I
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: don't think he's ever thrown this many innings before in
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: his career so that might have something to do with
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: it maybe he's like fatiguing a little bit but generally
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: he has been good against Arizona even though they probably
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: saw him a bit when he was on Colorado he's
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: got 31 at bats against them and they have a
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: 194 average 576 OPS six to four strikeout walk ratios
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: it's not a good ratio but the rest of these
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: numbers are good What do we do with this? I mean,
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: Lambert has the better matchup numbers here, but he's not
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: in good form. Erod is in the better form here.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: The game is definitely a pass for me. The money's
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: coming in on Arizona. 54% of tickets, 74% of the
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: cash on them. It's basically a pick-em price here. Given
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: the matchup stats, it has me kind of leaning Houston slightly, but...
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, Lambert, he seems like
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: he's a little bit worse at home. He's definitely in
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: pretty poor form right now. I don't love it. And
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: maybe the over is an option here. I mean, the
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: money is indicating on it. 69% of tickets, 94% of
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over. The total is around eight,
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: I think is what I saw there. Let me see. Yeah, basically.
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: It's a low total, actually. It's eight or seven and
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: a half, pretty much. Oddsmaker's kind of telling you they
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: think it's going to be a bit more of a
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: pitching duel. I mean, both pitchers have had good seasons
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: in general, so I will say that. But I don't
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: like how they set up here, to be honest. Bad
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: matchup stats for Eron and Lambert in bad form. Money
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: kind of agreeing with the over here, so I kind
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: of lean over. Maybe the over is the best way
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: to play that game, rather than trying to figure out
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: the side. I think maybe the over... Um, is the
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: better shot to actually get there with a winning play,
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: but I'm not going to have anything on that game.
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: The biggest weakness of pro bettors. Yeah. I mean, maybe,
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, I listened to a bunch of them. I
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: think everybody has individual weaknesses. I think like everybody sees
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: games differently. You know what I mean? The professionals don't
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: all agree. And when I look at the market and
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: I say, oh, yeah, this must be the professional side
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: because this money is on it or whatever, it's not
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: every professional. Like, it's just the majority of the professional
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: money is on that side, right? So there's just kind
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: of a general consensus, you know what I mean, among
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: the professional money that they like that side more than
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: the other side. But, yeah, like, obviously, there might be
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: some professionals still disagreeing with it or whatever. Yeah, I mean,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: maybe overthinking games. Yeah, like, professionals don't have the same
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: weaknesses as... recreational bettors too like the recreational bettors their
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: weaknesses is always like money management like they don't stick
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: to a bankroll they they bet more games than they
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: should they make stupid bets like parlays and stuff like
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: that um professionals once they get that discipline down they
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: don't do that like they know how to stick to
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: their bankroll uh they don't make those like really dumb
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: bets and whatever but um yeah maybe it's overthinking games
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: i don't know um Yeah, I think it depends on
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: the specific professional, really. I mean, you're never going to
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: be anywhere near perfect in this. You just need to
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: get enough right to win, to profit. You know what
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: I mean? You got to hit like 54, 55% of
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: your plays at minus 110. You know what I mean?
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: Of course, in baseball, we're playing some favorites that are
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: slightly more heavy favorites than that. But yeah. All right.
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: What do we have next? Next game is my other play.
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: This is the last play of the day. And this
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: one seems kind of ugly because I was saying this
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: looks like kind of an under series with these two offenses.
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: But we're going over in Blue Jays Royals and it's
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: a high total nine and a half. I know it's
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: on that key number. It's above that key number of nine.
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: But I think this is the right play to make.
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: I think the pitching in this game sucks. So we're
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: going to go over the total here in Toronto, Kansas City.
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: I think the bats can come out in this game.
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: It's a hitter-friendly ballpark in Kansas City. The first game
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: of the series did go over 9-2. Yesterday did not,
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: and it landed 7. So we had an 11 and
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: a 7. Kansas City is trying to avoid a sweep here,
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: by the way, and we got a push with my
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: play that I gave out on the show yesterday, and
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: the Kansas City first five yesterday was a push. They
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: wound up losing the game 4-3. Kansas City does fall
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: into that sweep-avoiding spot where The home team trying to
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: avoid a sweep a lot of times is the way
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: you want to look because the other team might overlook them.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: The home team gets a little more motivated. So Kansas
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: City might be worth considering, but I don't think I
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: want to back their picture here in this one. Toronto,
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: they're playing the A's next. I don't really think that's
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: much of a look ahead for Toronto because the A's
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: are A-S-S, let's say. Toronto, their bullpen is definitely better
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: than Kansas City. So if you're going to play Kansas City,
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: it should be a first five play. Even that, I
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: would not recommend. Toronto used four relief pitchers yesterday. Their
• 56:18
  Speaker 3: bullpen's better than Kansas City. Kansas City used, what is this, five,
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: I think. Toronto... is number 17 in bullpen Kansas City's
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: ranked dead last but as I keep saying they're better
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: than the A's but they're worse than everybody else so
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: that's what I think about that Toronto clearly is a
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: better bullpen Kansas City's a better offensive team they're number
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: 15 right now tie with the Yankees and the Giants
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: not too bad they're better at home which is where
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: they are here which again, it's a more hitter-friendly stadium
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: now that they moved the walls in. It used to
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: be a pitcher-friendly stadium. Toronto's not a good offense, the
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: number 27, but I still think they can get something
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: done in this game. Spencer Arrighetti is pitching for Toronto.
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: Not good. He has not been very good. He does
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: have good strikeout stuff, I think, but he's wild as hell. 4.82 ERA, 1.34 whip.
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: Not very good. He's been really bad on the road
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: this year. 6.04 road ERA. So that factors into this over.
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: His home road splits are very significant, and his road
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: ERA is three runs higher than it is at home.
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: So I think we could definitely fade him on the road.
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: Of course, he spent most of the season with Houston.
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: I think they traded him away, and since he's been
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: on Toronto... He's not been good. He's made it four
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: innings at most in all three of his outings. He
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: just faced Kansas City two outings ago at home, and
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: he was not good in that start. Kansas City got
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: to him for three runs, and he only lasted four innings.
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: Toronto's lost all three of his games that he's pitched,
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: and he hasn't been good in any of them. since
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: they got him, so he's not in good form right now.
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: Not going deep into outings. I think he's definitely fadable here.
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: He did pitch in this stadium in Kansas City earlier
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: this year, and he did have a good strikeout walk
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: ratio in that one, but he did also allow four
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: runs in that game. although he was better in that start,
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: so there is that. That was back with Houston. He's
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: hard to hit. He's got a low hit rate, but
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: his walk rate's really high, and I don't really think
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: he's going to only walk one guy again like he
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: did in that one start. The way he's been pitching recently,
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: he's been wild as hell. His walk rate's way too high.
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is pretty good, although it's not electric.
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: He's got a 1.8 strikeout walk ratio, so that is
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: pretty awful. Strikeout per nine is 8.8, so even that
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: really isn't that good. So he's not some tremendous strikeout
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: pitcher either. And his numbers against Kansas City are not
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: very good overall, even though he did have that one
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: fairly good start against them this year. 42 at-bats. He
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: was bad against them recently, though. And they've recently seen him,
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: so they're going to be recently familiar with him. But
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: they have 42 at-bats against him, 12-6 strikeout walk ratio,
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: 286 average, 756 OPS. So I think Eric Getty is
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: fadable here. And on the other side, Randy Dobnak. I mean,
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: this guy is just going to implode, man. I think
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: it's already happening. He sucks. He's got a 2.65 ERA,
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: but come on, man. uh 1.39 whip when you dig
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: into his numbers they're all awful like his ERA is
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: unbelievably misleading look at his career stats they're mediocre at
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: best hasn't really stuck around in the league much he's
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: not good um His last outing, finally you see some
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: regression because Miami finally got to him and tagged him
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: for six runs. So it looks like he's falling out
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: of form here. If you even think he was in
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: form at all, which I'm not even really sure about
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: that because he's allowed basically one hit per inning. His
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate is low. He
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: does get a lot of ground balls, so he's able
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: to get out of jams by doing that, but he's bad, dude. 1.7
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. That's really ugly. 6.2 strikeout per nine.
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: Not impressive whatsoever. He's nowhere near what a ZRA makes
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: him look. He's not good at all. His ERA should
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: be in the fives probably, and he's not particularly good
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: against Toronto either. In 26 at-bats, 269 average allowed, 783 OPS,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: 5-2 strikeout walk ratio. He did just pitch okay against
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: them in Toronto a couple starts ago, gave up three
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: runs in six innings, but I'm not going to trust
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: him whatsoever here. As far as his splits, he's actually
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: way worse at home. So we have the bad home
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: road split for both pitchers. He's got an 0.92, a.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: 92 road ERA, and at home, 4.45. So his home
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: ERA is like four runs worse, pretty much, with a.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: 313 opponent batting average at home. Yeah, good luck. This
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: guy's been bad at home. So the home road splits
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: favor this. Both pitchers are in their bad home road
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: split here. It's a hitter-friendly ballpark, so it kind of
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: makes sense as well. Let's do it. Let's take this
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: game over the total. The public's not going to be
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: looking at this game, I don't think, as far as
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: wanting to play an over. 67% of the tickets and
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: 93% of the cash on the over in this one.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: So the money seems to agree with it. I like it.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: And the money is coming in on Kansas City, which,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: like I said, usually the money's supporting the team trying
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: to avoid the sweep. Toronto, 69% of tickets on them,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: 91% of the cash on Kansas City. Toronto around minus 120.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: And like I said, it looks way too easy to
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: play Toronto because everybody knows, oh yeah, Toronto, they're technically
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: still trying to make the playoffs, whatever. They have the
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: better record. So the public will only play Toronto here
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: most likely. I don't like it. I don't want to
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: play the side at all because I can't back Dobnock
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: either here. But if you wanted to play Kansas City,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: you should do it in the first five because their
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: bullpen's awful. You might still get them as an underdog
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: in the first five. But I think the much, much
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: better way to play this game is to just fade
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: all the pitching in this game and just go with
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: the over. And you get one really bad bullpen here
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: too with Kansas City. So no one can win over 60%. No,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: that's the way that it is. Like there's too much,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: there's too much variance. Like that's just, that's never going
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: to change. Like the best guys are going to hit
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: like 55%, 56%, whatever, like long-term. No, it's not crazy.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: Nobody can do it. And no, AI is not going
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: to help. AI is going to make everything worse. What
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: I do is completely anti-AI. I do situational handicapping, which
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: is all about the human element of everything. And there's
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: no way AI is going to be able to figure
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: that out unless you could somehow program the AI to
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: find the types of spots that I find. But even that,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: you need the human element in this because it's almost
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: like there's an art to it. I think there's a
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: way that I see these games that leads me to
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: making better plays. I don't know how to describe it,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: but I think it's like an art, like being able
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: to figure out which ones you actually want to make
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: plays and whatever. I don't know, man. No, I don't
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: think AI... I think AI might make... The handicapper's worse
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: because it's going to avoid the human element even more.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: I think that's the most helpful thing to look at,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: even though I'm one of the only guys that does
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: that as the main part of the handicap. So I
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: don't know. Not in baseball, though. In baseball, I do
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: not do that. Tampa Bay at Texas. Texas is kind
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: of in desperation mode here, trying to somehow still make
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: the playoffs here. They've lost two games in the series.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: Texas won the first game of what is a four-game
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: series here, and then Tampa won each of the last
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: two in close games yesterday. They won by three, Tampa did,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: but I believe it was an extra inning game yesterday.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: And I believe the Mets-San Francisco was actually an extra
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: inning game. No, Arizona-Houston, excuse me, was an extra inning
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. So those are the bullpens that are a
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: little bit more used. Tampa Bay has the better bullpen
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: over Texas here. Texas used four guys, it looks like.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: Tampa used three, so that's quite a low number for
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: an extra inning game. I believe I said I liked
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: the under yesterday in that game, right? And it did
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: not wind up going under. That would have been one
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: of those unders where you get screwed because the game
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: goes into extra innings. Because I think it was Rasmussen,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: DeGrom in that one, if I'm not mistaken. And it
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: looks like it should have been an under, but it
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: went over in extra innings. That would have been a
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: bad beat that I would be very, very much... ranting
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: about on the show if I played that one uh
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay they got the better bullpen they're number four
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: although I don't love their bullpen they're not really the
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: fourth best bullpen but they're better than Texas Texas number
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: 21 uh Tampa Bay is the better offense as well
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: they're number seven even even if I don't think they're
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: quite that good Texas is number 18 uh Tampa Bay
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: uh Ian Seymour will be pitching for them. Like I said,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: Texas should be the more motivated team here, although Tampa
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: Bay does still need to kind of keep pace with
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: their division foes here as the Red Sox keep winning
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: and the Yankees won yesterday and whatever. Ian Seymour, 4.21 ERA, 1.14 whip.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty solid this year. He's not quite as
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: good on the road, though, 4.71 road ERA. And I
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: will warn that Tampa Bay does put openers in front
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: of him a lot, so if you're going to play
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: this game, you might want to pick– gore must start
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: for texas but don't pick a starter for tampa bay
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: seymour's been actually in really good form recently his Strikeout
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: walk ratio in the month of August was completely insane. 48-4.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: So he's striking out a ton of guys and he's
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: not walking anybody. Although he's been a little bit too hittable,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: so that means he is throwing a lot of pitches
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: over the plate. But that's still some pretty good stuff.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: Really good command numbers. Not allowing many runs, although Tampa's
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: lost his last four starts. Wasn't really his fault. He
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: allowed three runs exactly in all of them, but they
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: did not give him run support. He's got a low
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: hit rate on the season, a low walk rate, and
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: a high strikeout rate, so those numbers are all pretty
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: strong here. 4.3 strikeout walk ratio is definitely good. 11
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: strikeouts for nine, definitely good. He's also good against Texas,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: although they only have 14 at-bats against him. The majority
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: of their hitters have faced him. They only have two
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: hits against him, only one extra base hit, or two
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: extra base hits, excuse me. Berger and Diaz both have doubles.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: 143 average, 486 OPS average. Four to one strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Seymour should pitch well here. Even
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: though he's not as good on the road, he's got
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: good matchup numbers here. He's in good form right now.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: It's a pitcher-friendly ballpark. And on the other side, I
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: think Mackenzie Gore is probably going to deliver a good
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: start here too. Even though he's pretty mediocre. 4.31 ERA, 1.29 whip.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: He's been way better at home though. So Texas... has
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: been a good place for him to be because he
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: has a 2.89 home ERA. So he pitches really well
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: in this stadium. His walks have been an issue. I mean,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: that's always been the case. He's really wild. But he's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: had eight walks over his last two starts. That's not
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: a good sign. But he's generally been pitching all right
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: and not allowing many runs here. He's got a pretty
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: low hit rate on the season. Walk rate obviously is
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: too high. Strikeout rate is also high, though. So his
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is 2.8, but given that he has
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: a 9.8 strikeout per nine, yeah, that means he's walking
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys to see a strikeout walk ratio
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: below three with that many strikeouts. But he's got talent, man.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: I've always thought that. He's got good strikeout stuff. It's
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: just his command, he's never really been able to fix it.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: But he's good against Tampa Bay. They have 41 at-bats
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: against him, 13 strikeouts, two walks, 195 average, 647 OPS.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: I like the under in this game. I mean, you
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: probably knew I was going to say that, but yeah,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, this one was definitely one that I was
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: mulling over. I was considering it. It looks like the
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: money kind of doesn't agree. 78% of tickets, 91% of
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over. Total's low, seven and a half.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: It's low for a reason. You get that key number
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: seven and a half there. I think maybe you could
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: deal with the bullpens in this one. Yeah, I think
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: that's how I would do it. I think I would
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: full game under this thing if I was going to
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: play it. Texas is favored at about minus 110 here,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: but the money's actually on Tampa Bay, which kind of
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: surprises me. I figured Tampa Bay would be public, and
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: they do have 69% of tickets on them, but they
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: have 91% of the cash. That surprises me. Texas, to me,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: if you think it's going to be a close game,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: and it's one of those types of games that could
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: go either way, Texas is going to be the more
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: motivated team because they're desperate.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: That would have me looking towards Texas a little bit here.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: Probably you'd have to do it first five, though, because
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: they do not have a bullpen advantage here. But I
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: think my preference by far in that game is to
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: take it under the total, though. Definitely like the under
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: in that one. You fed the AI 40. Wait, did
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: you actually do that? You're having an AI bet like me?
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: If you actually did that, I want to see what
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: bets it comes up with, actually, and compare them to
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: what I actually wind up saying on the show. I
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: hope you actually did that. That would be... yeah dude
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: I want to see the results let's do an experiment
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: here even though I hate AI but I'm interested alright
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: I'm going to be right back I'll talk about the
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: remaining five games we have three college football games because
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: NFL doesn't start until the middle of this week so
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: we have some Sunday college football today and it's some
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: of the bigger, at least one, like the biggest game
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: of the week is today. The only ranked versus ranked
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: matchup is today, and it's a very hyped game, so
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: I'm obviously going to talk about that one. The other
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: games are not really as exciting, but I'll be right back. Yep, inside,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: I want to kill myself. We were on an 0-7
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: 1-5.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this. With the slump continuing. Two
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: straight losses. Not a good day at all. 0-4. Have
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: not had a good season, man. With weekends. Slumped. Then
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: know what is going on with the Bruins. March 8th?
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: point other than potentially end it all. All right, next
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: game is St. Louis, Colorado. Pretty ugly series here. I mean,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: there's been a lot of scoring, so if you like that,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 3: both games have gone over the total. Colorado won 10-7 yesterday.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: I do not like the over in today's game, though.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: Both teams have won one game in the series. I mean,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: these teams are both playing out the stretch, so it
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: is kind of whatever. So maybe overs kind of make
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: sense for that reason, because... You know, I mean, it
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: sort of becomes just like batting practice almost, but some
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: of that is just because the pitching is bad here.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: Colorado used a bunch of guys out of the bullpen.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: Their bullpen is trash. They used six guys out of
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: the bullpen, I think is what that is. St. Louis
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: only used two, but these are both bad bullpens. Colorado's
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: number 27, St. Louis number 23. I would not want
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: to back either bullpen here. Colorado's number four in offense still,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: and St. Louis is nowhere near as good at 24th.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: So Colorado is the better offense here. I almost said bullpen.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: That would not be right unless they're playing the A's.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: Kyle Leahy getting the start for St. Louis. So he's
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: been all right. 3.13 ERA. 1.31 whip is not really
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: that good. A lot of ones and threes there. But
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: he's not bad. He's got a 3.38 road ERA, which
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: is decent. So yeah, he's been all right. He's not
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: going that deep into his outings recently, but he's also
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: not allowing many runs. And he's had a high strikeout
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: rate and a low walk rate for the last couple
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: months now. So he's in good form as far as
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: his command looks pretty good here. One thing you need
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: to look at when you're in Coors Field is Is
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: this guy very fly ball heavy? And the answer is no.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: He has more fly balls than ground balls, but it's
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: not by a significant amount. He doesn't allow that many
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: home runs. So he should be able to pitch okay
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: in Coors Field here. He pitched against Colorado at home
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: not too long ago and pitched well there, but that
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: was a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark. His numbers overall, his
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: hit rate's a bit too high. His walk rate's definitely
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: not bad, though, and his strikeout rate is okay. So
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: his strikeout walk ratio is going to be fairly good.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: He had 3.1, not bad. 8.2 strikeout per nine, not
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: too bad either. So he's all right, and he's fairly
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: good against Colorado. They have 33 at-bats against him, 14 strikeouts,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: no walks, 242 average, 606 OPS. So I think Leahy
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: can actually pitch well here. He's a style of pitcher
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: that isn't that bad for Coors Field, and he does
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: have good numbers against this lineup, but he's been pitching
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 3: all right recently, so I don't think he's going to
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: do that bad. Tanner Gordon is pitching for the Rockies.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: He's one of their least bad pitchers, probably. 5.180 ERA, 1.4 whip.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: I know those are not good numbers. But mostly it's
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: because at home, though, he doesn't pitch well. 7.26 home ERA. So, yes,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: he is at home here. Not good. But last time
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: he pitched here, he was pretty good. He held Baltimore
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: to one run. That's not bad. Although the couple of
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: starts before that at home, he was not really that good.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: But two of his last four starts at home have
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: actually been good. So.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: He might be able to actually pitch okay here, and
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: he's a guy that he allows too many hits, but
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: he does not walk anybody, although his strikeout rate is
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: pretty low here. So yeah, his hit rate's way too high.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is fine. His strikeout rate is okay-ish.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: He does allow a decent amount of fly balls, though,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: so that's not great. for this stadium. His home run
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: rate is definitely way too high, so that is kind
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: of a problem with him. He should probably not be
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: on Colorado. His numbers against St. Louis are actually good, though,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 3: and 15 at-bats. It's a small sample, though. Seven hitters
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: have faced him, I think. One extra base hit, a
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: double from Jordan Walker. Two to three strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: 200 average, 600 OPS. So aside from that ratio, these
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: are good numbers here from Gordon. I don't know if
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: I really want to trust him at home, though. The
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: money seems to slightly be backing St. Louis, and I
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: probably agree with that. 83% of tickets, 87% of the
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: cash on them. They're around minus 130. St. Louis should
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: have the upper hand in the starting pitching and in
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: the bullpen here. So that's probably how I would see
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: this game, and I would probably lean that way and
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: agree with St.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: But I think the first five under is in consideration here.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: The full game total is 10.5 for 11, and the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: money is backing the over pretty strongly. 58% of tickets,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: 90% of the cash on the over. But I showed
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: you the pitching matchup numbers here. I think Leahy might
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: be able to pitch well here. Gordon is much more
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: of a question mark because he tends to not pitch
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: that well here at home, and he's too home run heavy.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: So it's definitely risky, but I don't know. I think
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 3: first five under makes some sense with how these pitchers
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: match up. against these offenses, but do I really want
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: to do it? No, absolutely not. All right, A's in Seattle.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: What is going on with Seattle? Seattle's on the verge
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: of getting swept in a four-game home series by the A's.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: Are you serious? I mean, this is ridiculous, completely ridiculous,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: but they do have Brian Wu on the mound here,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: so if anybody's going to put an end to this,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: it should be him because he's good, but Seattle, I mean,
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: they're in total desperation mode at this point. They're almost
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: out of it, but they're probably not going to make
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: the playoffs at this point, but they got to get
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: this win, man. They got to stop the bleeding, get
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 3: this win. They're the better team. I mean, they've been
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: a favorite pretty substantially in every one of these games
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 3: at home. I think they've been at least minus 200
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: in every one of these games. And I did lean
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: to the A's. I think in all three games, I
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: think I actually leaned to the A's in the first five.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: And I think I was right about at least two
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: of them. I'll have to go back and look. Actually,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: let me look. Did we get it right yesterday? Let
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: me see. I think I said A's first five yesterday. Yes,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: Springs was awesome in the game yesterday. Kirby was all right,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: but Seattle's offense did nothing. So, yeah, the A's were
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: winning at the end of five. A's wound up winning 6-2. But, yeah, Seattle,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, when you have a team like this, a
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: home team that's the big favorite, on the verge of
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: a four-game sweep, that they could get swept in a
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: four-game series, you know you're going to get motivation. A
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: motivated team is the better team. I do not want
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: the A's in this one, I'll tell you that. But
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: I don't want to lay the price with Seattle either.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: The A's used two relief pitchers yesterday. Seattle used two
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: as well. Seattle is the better bullpen, even though their
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: bullpen has not been very good this year either. Number 20,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: but the A's are absolute trash. They're number 29. They're
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 3: the worst bullpen, though. So Seattle is the better bullpen.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 3: The A's are the better offense. They're back up to
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 3: number nine, tied with Minnesota. Seattle's had issues all year
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 3: with their offense. Number 28. So the A's are better there.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: The A's are going with Gage Jump. He's not their
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: worst pitcher, even though I know his numbers aren't that good.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: He's a rookie, and he does have some talent, and
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: we backed him a couple times early in the season
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: and got some wins out of it. 5.15 ERA, 1.49 whip,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: not exactly good, I know, but he's at least better
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 3: on the road, 4.6 road ERA. He pitches worse in
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: that horrible Sacramento stadium. He got obliterated on the road
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: last time out, though, at Texas. That's not a good
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 3: sign because Texas is not that good of an offense.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 3: That's a pitcher-friendly park. So he's not pitching well right now. Jump,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: he's still striking out a good amount of guys for
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: the most part, but his walk rate is definitely too high.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: He's been too hittable recently, so none of that's good.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: He's been too hittable in the season. His walk rate's
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: too high at this point, but he does have a
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: good strikeout rate. So I think he might be able
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: to turn this around, and he might become a good
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: pitcher at some point. It would be better for him
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: if he didn't have to pitch in the Sacramento Stadium,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: but whatever. He's got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, and
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: given that his strikeout per nine is... a really solid 9.6, yeah,
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: that means he's walking way too many guys. He's got
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: to figure that out. He's not particularly good against the Mariners.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: They have a 3.08 average against him, but they don't
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: have any power hitting against him. No extra base hits,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: so they only have a 6.15 OPS off him. It's
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: a really small sample, though, 13 at-bats, five hitters have
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: faced him, three strikeouts, no walks. So does that mean
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: a jump is necessarily going to do bad here? No.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 3: He might pitch well. It's a pitcher-friendly park, and Seattle
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: is not hitting for power, and they're not a good offense.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: Brian Wu, like I said, is pitching for Seattle. I
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: think he's way better than his 4.25 ERA. It makes
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: him look 1.09 whip. For whatever reason, he's been awful
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: on the road this year. but he's been good at
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: home and throughout his career, he's always been good at home.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: Although throughout his career, he's been better than this. So
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: this has been a down year for him, but he
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: has a 2.63 home era. He's still, in my opinion,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: he's still like a borderline elite pitcher. Just, I don't
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: know what he's been doing as far as his road starts,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: but his recent road starts have actually been better. And
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: actually his one bad recent start was actually at home,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: but he bounced back. He pitched really well last time
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: out at Fenway. So he had a good road start, um,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: in a fairly hitter-friendly environment in that last one. That's
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: a good sign. His hit rate is pretty low, although
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: throughout his career, I think it's been lower than what
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: it is this year. He's got a low walk rate,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: pretty high strikeout rates. All those numbers are good. 4.8
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, still quite good. Not as good as
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: what he posted in the last two seasons. He was
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: elite the last two seasons. He's a little bit less
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: than elite this season, but he's still good and better
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: than his ERA makes him look, and he's still pretty young.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: So this season, I think it's just, I don't know, man.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: It's just not his season, I guess. Nine strikeout per nine,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: but I still think he's backable in a game like this.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: His numbers against the A's are good. 64 at bats,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: 203 average. five 51 OPS, 20 to three strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 3: Those numbers are all good. And Wu is good at
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: home as well. So I do think Seattle is the
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 3: right way to look here, but they're very, very public.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: 90% of tickets, 90% of the cash on them. They're
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: sitting at minus 200. If you're going to play Seattle,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, you pretty much have to do like, um,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: minus one and a half run line on it. And
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: given how bad their offense is, I can't do that.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to do it, man. Uh, maybe like
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 3: an under might be worth considering here. The full game,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 3: seven or seven and a half, though. Oddsmakers are telling
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: you they think it's going to be a low-scoring game,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: but given how bad the A's bullpen is, I don't
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: think you could play this full game under. I think
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: you'd have to do a first five under, and I
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: think that is probably what I would do. 67% of tickets,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: 57% of the cash on the over, so the money's
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: back in the under here. It's a tough call, though, man.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 3: Playing the first five under here, you're going to be
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: looking at a three, probably, and It's quite dangerous, so
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 3: there isn't really a great way to play this game.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: I mean, you could take Seattle and Moneyline, parlay them
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 3: with some other similar-sized favorite here if you wanted to.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: I guess that's an option because I really think Seattle
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: finally will get this win and avoid the sweep here
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: at the very least and avoid embarrassment. One other thing
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: you could do is you could take the A's under
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: their team total. If you like the under and you
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 3: like Seattle to win, that would mean that the A's
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: team total would make sense as well. But again, you're
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 3: going to need them to score two or fewer runs probably.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: And Wu can do it, but you could also get
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: really granular with it and go with the A's under
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 3: team total in the first five. So just go with
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 3: Wu to shut them down. But you'll probably need the
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: A's to score one run at most if you do that.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: Yankees at San Diego. These seem to split the first
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: two games here of this series. San Diego's the more...
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: Desperate team, I would say, because they're sitting behind Arizona
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: here in this wild card spot. They are fighting to
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs. They're going to be more motivated, you
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: would have to assume, than the Yankees. Yankees are definitely
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: going to make the playoffs at the very least. San
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 3: Diego used four relief pitchers here yesterday. The Yankees also
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: used four. Both bullpens are good, though. The Yankees are
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: number two. They're number one in ERA. San Diego's number seven,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: although I think they're the fourth best ERA maybe. Um,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: so these are both good bullpens. The offenses have had
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: their issues. Uh, Yankees are the better offense though. They're
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 3: number 15 tie with Kansas city and San Francisco. Um,
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: definitely capable of turning it on. San Diego has been
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: better since the all-star break, but I think they've kind
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: of fallen off again recently. Number 25 in offense for
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 3: San Diego. Uh, this does look like more of a
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup though. I mean, the odds makers have put
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: a low total on this and it's low for a
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 3: reason because both starting pitchers are good pitchers here. Garrett
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: Cole is getting the start for the Yankees, 3.29 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 3: He missed some time with an injury this season, but
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: he's been pretty solid. He's been fairly consistent. He's, Better
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: on the road ERA-wise, but worse opponent batting average-wise, but
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: his numbers are not significant. The splits are not significant,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: so he's good either home or away. It doesn't really matter.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 3: This is a pitcher-friendly park here. He was a little
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: bit mediocre last time out at Anaheim, which is maybe
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: not a great sign because Anaheim is not a good offense,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: but he was still able to get through that outing
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: and get the win in it. He's not pitching poorly, though.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: He's been in form for a while now. He looks
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: pretty good for a pitcher that's his age, and he's
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: not exactly what he was when he was younger, but
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: he's still pitching well. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: doesn't really walk anybody. His strikeout rate's high. His strikeout
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: walk ratio's at 5, which is really good. Strikeout per
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 3: 9 is 9.5. That's pretty solid as well. Numbers against
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: San Diego are not as good as you might think,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: just because they have some power hitting against them. It's
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: almost all Bogarts doing.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: It, though.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: 73 at-bats here. 20-3 strikeout walk ratio is really good.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 3: 247 average allowed is pretty low. But a 752 OPS
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: is just a little bit high. And it's mostly because
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 3: Bogarts has three home runs off him. But Bogarts also
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: doesn't have a good average against him. He strikes out
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: all the time. Austin Hayes actually has a better batting
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: average against him. But whatever. I think Cole should pitch
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: well here, though. That would be my gauge on this.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: And Michael King, who I believe was on the Yankees
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: a long time ago. Yeah, he was. He's pitched against
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 3: them since then, though, so I don't think him pitching
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 3: against his former team really matters. But he is pitching
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 3: for San Diego here, 3.11 ERA, 1.17 whip. He's been solid.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: He's been good at home, 2.94 home ERA, so he's
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 3: a little bit better at home. He's had some walk issues,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: but he's mostly pitching well recently. He's not allowing many
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: runs at all. Three or fewer earned runs in all
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: but one start over the last two months. Really low
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 3: hit rate. He's been difficult to hit, although his walk
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 3: rate is not exactly great. His strikeout rate's a little
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: bit low, but he gets a lot of ground balls
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: as well. Strikeout walk ratio's not good. 2.2. Again, it's
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 3: kind of a low strikeout rate combined with a walk
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: rate that is a little bit too high. 7.8 strikeout
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: per nine is a little bit questionable. He's had the
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: lowest strikeout per nine this year. that he's had since
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: his first season in the majors, which is a shortened season.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: So that's not exactly great. King against the Yankees has
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: not been very good, though. In 39 at-bats, 282 average,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: 774 OPS allowed, 11-5 strikeout walk ratio. So while this
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: could be an under, King's numbers do worry me a
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: bit here. The total's at 7, so there's, like, no
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: leeway there. 57% of tickets, 76% of cash on the over.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: So the money seems to be indicating on the over.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I still think there are more indicators
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: towards an under in this game than an over, so
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: I would still slightly lean under, but I think I
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: lean Yankees, but the money's definitely disagreeing with that. 72%
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: of tickets on the Yankees. Plus, you kind of know
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 3: that Yankees with Cole on the mound, it's going to
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: be a little bit of a more expensive price than
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 3: it should be. However, in this game, it's a pick-em,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: so you're getting the Yankees at a fairly cheap price
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 3: just in the overall... scheme of things like the Yankees
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: are usually not this cheap however it does make it
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: look way too easy like oh I get the Yankees
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: with Cole at a pick'em price here 95% of the
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: cash on San Diego so the money is definitely backing
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 3: San Diego here but I think I lean Yankees given
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: what that matchup looks like now the argument for the
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: over would be that both pitchers do have an above
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: 750 OPS against here but to me it looks like
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: good pitching for the most part across the board in
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 3: that game so I don't know it's a tough game
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 3: to figure out Minnesota at the White Sox. This is
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 3: the NBC and Peacock night game, although it's a little
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: bit earlier. It's 6.20 p.m. Eastern, and then there's a
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: rare late-night West Coast game on MLB TV for a
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: Sunday as well, which is kind of weird. The White Sox,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: and what are we talking about here? White Sox-Twins? Yes,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: Twins-White Sox, yeah. So these teams have split the series
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 3: so far. They've each won one game. White Sox are
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: top of the division here. They do need to keep
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: winning to maintain their division lead and or make sure
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 3: they at least get a wild card here. Minnesota is
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: in desperation mode trying to still make the playoffs here,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: so there might be a little bit more motivation on
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 3: the Minnesota side. Minnesota's bullpen is bad, though. They used
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 3: four guys out of their bullpen yesterday. The White Sox
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: are the better bullpen. They also used four, it looks like.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 3: Let me see. Bullpen-wise, Minnesota is number 28. They're pretty bad.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 3: The White Sox are number 15. So yeah, like I said,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 3: White Sox are the better bullpen. Twins have been the
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: better offense. They're number nine, but the White Sox are
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 3: number 12, not far behind, tied with Houston and Miami.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: Bailey Ober is getting the start for Minnesota. He's going
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 3: to be a little bit hard to figure out in
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: this one. He's been okay this year, 4.37 ERA, 1.24 whip,
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 3: but he's been significantly worse on the road, 6.2 road ERA,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 3: so you really do not want to back him on
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 3: the road. Opponent batting average very close to 300 on
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 3: the road. That's not good, but He's been pretty good recently.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: His last three starts, he's allowed two reviewer-owned runs, although
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: one of them he didn't make in five innings, and
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: the others he only made in exactly five. One of
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 3: them was on the road, and he pitched okay, but
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: it was at San Diego. It's a pitcher-friendly park. But
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: his last couple of road starts haven't been that bad.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: The older is at least pitching okay here. He did
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: just the White Sox in that most recent start at home,
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: and he pitched pretty well in that one, although they
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 3: still wound up losing. He's got kind of an okay-ish
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: hit rate. His walk rate is okay as well, but
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is low. He just doesn't strike guys out.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 3: So he's got a 2.5 strikeout walk ratio this year,
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: which is not good. It's like the lowest he's ever posted.
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: He really has better strikeout numbers than this. So his
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: strikeout potential looks like it's kind of gone down. It's
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: diminished a little bit. I don't know why. He's got
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: a 6.3 strikeout per nine this year, which is a
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: lot lower than what he's posted in the past. Not sure, man.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: He's also a big dude. I mean, he's 6'9, 260,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: so you'd think he'd be able to throw hard and
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 3: keep that strikeout rate up, but I don't know, man.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 3: He is good against the White Sox generally, though. 79
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: career at-bats is a big sample. 190 average, 623 OPS allowed,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: 19-7 strikeout walk ratio. So Ober has done pretty well
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 3: against the White Sox generally. I think he might be
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: able to pitch well here. I don't know if I
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: really want to do it because over on the road
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: has been kind of an issue. But the White Sox
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: are going with a bullpen game here. I think Burke
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: is the next guy up in the rotation. But my
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: assumption is he's probably pitching their next game because... He's
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: only on exactly four days rest here, so they probably
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: want to push him back one day. Yeah, so it
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 3: looks like Burke is pitching on... Well, they're pushing him
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: back to Tuesday because they don't play tomorrow. So Burke
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: would be next up in the rotation, but because of
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: the rest scenario, they're going to go with a bullpen game.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: Brian Hudson is listed as a starter here. I'm not
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: really going to dig into his numbers much. He's going
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: to be an opener, and it's going to be a
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: bullpen game for the White Sox here, so... Sometimes they
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: do okay with that, sometimes not, so do what you
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: want with that info, but I think I actually do
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: lean to Minnesota here. The money doesn't agree. 77% of tickets,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: 94% of the cash on the White Sox. They're around
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 3: minus 140 here. I think I would take Minnesota first five, though.
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't want to deal with Minnesota's bullpen,
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: but Ober has decent numbers against the White Sox, and
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: I think even though he's bad on the road, I
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: think he should have the upper hand over a White
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 3: Sox pen game, but maybe not, man. And the money
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 3: is backing the over pretty strongly here. An over over.
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: Eight and a half is the total in this one.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: I don't have a great read on the total in
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 3: this one, man. But I guess I could see the
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: argument for it is that over is not good on
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: the road. He's not really a great pitcher. And White
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 3: Sox bullpen game is not exactly the greatest thing. So
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: maybe an over does make sense there as well. I
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: don't think the under makes sense. 40 hours to me. Oh,
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: and Tokyo Brandon, I like him. He's good with baseball. 38-23.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: How many games has it overlapped with me? I don't know.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good, though. That's winning. So, I don't know.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: We need a larger sample size to really see. Washington
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: at LA is the last game. For whatever reason, we
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: have a rare late-night game. Sunday night game. It's not,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: you know, because usually Sunday night is just dedicated to
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 3: that one Sunday night game, but Washington and LA are,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 3: I guess, coming to, I don't know, spoil the party here. And,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: It looks like it's not exactly great pitching necessarily in
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 3: this game, but if you like offense, maybe you'll get
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: that in this one. Washington used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: The Dodgers used three as well. The Dodgers are the
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: better bullpen, though. The Dodgers are number 10. Washington, not
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen, number 26. One of the only bullpens
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: with an above-five ERA. Both offenses are good. The Dodgers,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: number two. Washington, number three. Andrew Alvarez getting the start
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 3: for Washington. He's been alright. 3.47 ERA. 1.31 whip is
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: not really that good. I think he kind of walks
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 3: too many guys, but he's been pretty solid on the road. 2.95
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 3: road ERA. He looked pretty good at home last time.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 3: I was watching some of that game last Sunday with
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: Clint while Clint was still here. Speaking of which, go
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 3: watch Bald. We did an episode last night. Not in person, though,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: because he's in New York now. But, yeah, we had
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 3: this game on. Alvarez looked pretty good in that game
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 3: against Miami. Shut them out for six innings, but he
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 3: wound up not getting the win, and they lost the
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: game because the bullpen blew it, but that wasn't his fault.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: Alvarez has been all right, but his walk rate is
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 3: the main issue with him. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 3: pretty good strikeout rate, but his walk rate is concerning.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: So that's what he's got to work on, man. A 2.1
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is not really that good. 8.5 strikeout
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 3: per nine is fine, but the walk number is one issue.
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 3: But he's not a bad pitcher, and he's a little
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 3: bit better on the road, and he's got unfamiliarity here
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: against the Dodgers. So I think he might be able
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 3: to pitch okay here because the Dodgers have not seen
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: him before, and he does have some talent. So he
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 3: might have the upper hand here against Justin Robleski, who
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 3: is returning to the Dodgers starting rotation here after– He
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 3: had a good season, but it was inexplicably good, man.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: The advanced analytics guys were just calling for regression all season.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: It did finally start to happen. 3.65 ERA, 1.11 whip
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 3: from him. Still not bad, obviously. And he's been pretty
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 3: good at home. 3.41 home ERA with a 183 opponent
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 3: batting average. That is definitely good. He was struggling, man.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: His last few starts, basically end of July through August,
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 3: he was not doing well. They kind of shut him
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: down at the end of August. He had a 9-plus
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: ERA in August. He was not pitching well. And they
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 3: brought him back, and he, I believe, came in in
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 3: relief in this game against St. Louis on September 1st,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: and he did not pitch well in that one. And
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: now he is going to get the start here in
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 3: this night game, I guess, because the Dodgers just want to,
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 3: shift their rotation back a bit and get guys some
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 3: rest or whatever. Uh, Robleski against the nationals. They only
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 3: have four guys who have faced him, but they've teed
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: off on him. It's a very small sample, nine at bats,
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: but James Wood has two home runs off him. Uh,
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 3: they have six hits off him. They have two walks,
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 3: no strikeouts. It's a six 67 average, 2061 OPS. I
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 3: don't want to trust Robleski here. I'm actually going to
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: lean Washington first five in this one. Um, and as
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 3: far as the series, each team has won a game
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 3: in the series. I'm pretty sure if you were, wondering about,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 3: or maybe it's 2-1 Dodgers, maybe? Wait, am I wrong?
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: Oh no, sorry, the Dodgers are on the verge of
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 3: a sweep. My apologies. The Dodgers won, but I don't
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: know why I thought they lost one. I think it
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 3: was because they didn't cover for me in one of those.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 3: Oh no, that was the St. Louis where they didn't cover, whatever.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: I'm getting it all mixed up right now, but yeah,
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers are on the verge of a sweep. I
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 3: time warped, I think. But yeah, so I like teams
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: that are trying to avoid the sweep, and that is
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 3: Washington here as well. I hate their bullpen, so I
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 3: can't deal with their bullpen, but I would lean Washington
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 3: first five in this one. 94% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 3: the cash on the Dodgers. They're a public side, obviously.
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: They're minus 200-something here, down for minus 220. So I
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 3: think some actual money is kind of backing Washington here.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 3: I would do it in the first five. I mean,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 3: plus half run or something. Take Alvarez to... be able
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 3: to out-pitch Robleski. I think he can do that. And
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: Washington's offense is good enough that they can kind of hang,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 3: I think, as well. The over, I guess there's probably
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 3: some argument for the over here as well. A lot
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: of money coming in on the over 8.5 here. I mean,
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: neither of these pitchers are anything that special, and the
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: bullpens are not exactly great either. Obviously, Washington's definitely isn't,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 3: so the over makes more sense in that game as
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 3: well than the under does. So those would be my
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 3: leans in that game. I think the best way to
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: play it is Washington... plus half the run or something
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 3: in the first five, but I would also lean over
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 3: in that one. All right, and that's going to do
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 3: it for baseball.
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 3: Western Michigan, yeah, I talked about... Zach, what's up, man?
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: I talked about that at the beginning of the show.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 3: I ranted a little bit about that. The one good
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 3: thing about it is it gives us some plays that
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: we can make in the next week. However, I think...
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: Even if that last play didn't happen, I'd be making
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 3: the same plays. The plays are just going to be
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: based on Michigan looking awful and having a really close
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: call while Western Michigan put their all into that game.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Kansas City over. I would
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 3: not play Kansas City first five. Dobnock is an absolute disaster.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 3: This is what the AI likes today. Houston first five?
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: What?
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 3: Oh, with Lambert? I don't know, man. Well, I'll pay attention.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 3: We'll see how that goes. So it agrees with me.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 3: So you're telling me the AI version of me combined
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 3: with Tokyo Brandon has the same play as me on
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 3: the over in the Kansas City game? Is that what
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 3: you're telling me? Well, all right. That's interesting.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about college football here before I
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: get out of here. We have three games. There's one
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 3: afternoon game to start the NBC doubleheader, which is the
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: Apple Cup, which used to be the last game of
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: the regular season back when Washington State and Washington were
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 3: in the same conference in the Pac-12. Well, that's no
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: longer the case, obviously. Washington State has been an orphan,
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 3: and now they're un-orphaned as they're in the newly reformed Pac-12,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 3: while Washington is in the Big Ten, of course. But,
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 3: of course, for this game, both teams are just staying
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: in the state of Washington. Now, usually Washington State gets
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: up for this game. It's a huge game for them
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 3: because they're the little brother here, right? And Washington has
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: been the better team over the last several years. So
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: Washington State plays this game with a chip on their shoulder.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: I think they've won at least one of these games recently.
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 3: So the little brother a lot of times is the
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 3: way that I like to look when they're a big underdog.
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: And that would be Washington State in this one here,
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 3: of course. Washington is ranked to start the season at
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: number 17. Now, we got to look at what's going
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 3: on with the returning starters here. Washington does have 11
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 3: returning starters, including DeMond Williams. I almost said Desmond. DeMond
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 3: Williams Jr., their quarterback, is coming back. The majority of
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: their offense is coming back, so Washington's offense... Should be
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 3: ready to hit the ground running. Washington State, I believe,
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 3: has a new coach, and they're going to have some
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 3: turnover here, man. They only have five returning starters all
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: on the offense. One of them is Voorhees. They're running back.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 3: Not Jason Voorhees, but maybe he's scary to defend against
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 3: all the same. So, yeah, Washington does definitely win the
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 3: continuity battle here. Washington State now has Kirby Moore as
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 3: their new coach. He was the offensive coordinator at Missouri
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: most recently. He is now going to be there as
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: their head coach. So, you know, I mean, there's going
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 3: to be some turnover here for Washington State, right? So,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 3: you know, Washington definitely has the upper hand as far
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 3: as the continuity goes. But the money is kind of
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 3: indicating on Washington State here. Washington's just a huge favorite, dude. Like,
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: do I expect them to lose the game outright? No,
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 3: although funny things do happen in these rivalry games. Washington
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 3: opened 21 and a half, and they're already up to
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 3: 23 and a half, 24 almost now. 66% of the
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 3: tickets on them, but only 64% of the cash. So
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 3: it looks like some of the money is actually kind
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 3: of buying this back on Washington State here. And the
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 3: money looks like it's kind of supporting the under here
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 3: fairly strongly, especially at that key number of 51 and
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 3: a half. And Washington State and the under are going
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 3: to be correlated here, right? Because Washington State's probably going
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 3: to run the football quite a bit because That's where
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 3: they have the continuity with Voorhees coming back. They're going
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 3: to want to try to slow the game down and
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 3: keep Washington from having that many possessions in the game.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 3: So if Washington State can do that and they can
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 3: slow the game down, they might be able to come
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 3: within this number. So I think under and Washington State
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 3: covering are definitely correlated here. Kind of obvious because it's
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 3: a somewhat lowish total and you have a huge... spread
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 3: here you know what I mean so that kind of
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 3: makes sense I think I'm going to lean towards the
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 3: underdog here slightly Washington State even though they don't have
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: the continuity I definitely don't want to make a play
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 3: out of it but they usually just get up for
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 3: games like this man you know what I mean I
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 3: mean maybe Washington will also get up for it because
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 3: it is a rivalry game and it is their home
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 3: opener and whatever but you're also asking them to like
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: are they how much are they going to be incentivized
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 3: to win this by 24 I mean I understand it's
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 3: a rivalry and you want to beat your opponent down
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 3: but yeah I don't know man I kind of lean
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 3: Washington State slightly in this one, at least based on
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 3: the market read for now. The next game, we want
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 3: to talk about low total with a high spread. That's
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 3: what you get in the night NBC game, which is
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: Wisconsin against No. 4 Notre Dame. This is a neutral
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 3: site game at Lambeau Field. You might say, well, that's
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 3: a semi-home game for Wisconsin because it's in Wisconsin. There's
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 3: a huge University of Wisconsin fan base in that area.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 3: That's true, but you know Notre Dame's going to travel,
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 3: so you know, I think it's going to probably be
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 3: like 60, 40, Wisconsin would be my guess would be
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 3: the crowd here, but Notre Dame has fans everywhere. So
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 3: I think it's, it'll actually probably be somewhat close to
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 3: a pretty even split there. So I don't think the
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 3: location is going to help Wisconsin that much there. And
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 3: it's not that far for Notre Dame fans to travel
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 3: from Indiana. They're crazy. You know, they're going to do it. Um,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 3: Notre Dame is obviously the way better team here. They're
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 3: expected to be one of the best teams in the
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 3: nation this year. Um, They have a really easy schedule
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 3: this year, so I think they're not going to wind
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 3: up getting battle tested. But Notre Dame has a lot
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 3: of returning starters, 14 returning starters, including CJ Carr, their quarterback.
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 3: But the majority of their defense is coming back, including
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 3: their entire secondary. So that's pretty good for Notre Dame
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 3: because they were a good defense. So that's going to continue.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 3: They're going to have a good defense. Wisconsin, they're only
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 3: bringing back four guys. So Wisconsin's having a complete turnover here.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 3: Did they get a new coach, too?
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: No.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 3: Actually, I believe Wisconsin's coach is in his third year now, though,
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 3: if I'm not mistaken. I forget who their new coach is,
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 3: but I think he's going to be in his third
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 3: year now. And a lot of times, teams do take
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 3: a step forward there. This Wisconsin program, man, they need
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 3: to get something fixed. You know what I mean? Their
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 3: football program used to be pretty strong, and it's completely
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 3: fallen off. They've got to get something going here. Now,
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 3: This game could wind up being kind of a lower
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: scoring game. I mean, Notre Dame, they play defense. They
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 3: run the football quite a bit. I don't know how
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 3: incentivized they're going to be to really kind of run
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 3: up the score here. And given that it's the first
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 3: game of the season, a lot of the opening games
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 3: of the season kind of wind up slow-paced and wind
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 3: up going under. I think the unders in week one
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 3: are about a 55%. hit rate there. So the unders
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 3: hit a little bit more in week one. A lot
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 3: of it is because the offenses start slow, whatever. Wisconsin,
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 3: they're going to have to figure something out on offense here.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 3: So the question is going to be, can they ugly
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 3: this game up enough to hang within this number here?
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 3: Because obviously I don't think they're going to win. Notre
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 3: Dame is 84% of tickets, 86% of the cash on them.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 3: They're a public side though. And the thing is, Notre
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 3: Dame moved up from 19 and a half. Now they're
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 3: right on that key number of 21 basically here. the
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 3: three touchdown threshold and the total is very low. Like
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 3: it was at 47 and a half and it immediately
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 3: got taken out down to 46 and a half. So
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 3: the mob gamblers came in and took it out, man.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 3: That key number was not there for very long. So
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 3: that was a, yeah, it looks like there is some
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 3: actual professional money on the under based on what we
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 3: see here. And you know what I think, like when
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: you have a huge total like this, or excuse me,
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 3: when you have a huge spread like this with a
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 3: low total, excuse me, I like the underdog because it
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 3: means points are just going to be more at a premium.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 3: And of course, the money back in the under seems
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 3: to be correlated with Wisconsin and the public is all
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 3: over Notre Dame here. So I'm not going to put
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: much weight into a two percentage difference on the side there.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 3: I'd probably lean towards taking the points with Wisconsin. It's
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 3: supposed to be an ugly game, right? So the points
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 3: are going to be worth more. asking a 21 point
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 3: cover is asking a lot with a game. It's supposed
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 3: to be that low scoring. So it's like, you're basically
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 3: saying Wisconsin's just not even going to score pretty much
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 3: in this game, which I know that's been the case.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: Like Wisconsin's looked really ugly in some of these early games,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 3: but their defense has been good in some of these
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 3: early games. So we'll see. Uh, but Notre Dame definitely
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 3: has a continuity, um, Coming into this game, right? Both
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 3: of those huge favorites have a lot of continuity there.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 3: And then the big game of the entire weekend is
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 3: on ABC here. We do have one game tomorrow, by
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 3: the way, too, an ACC matchup on ESPN tomorrow, which
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 3: I'll talk about tomorrow. But the only ranked versus ranked
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 3: matchup is the ABC game tonight, which is also a
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 3: neutral game. It's No. 24 Louisville and No. 9 Ole Miss,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 3: and it's in Nashville, Tennessee. So... It's sort of equidistant-ish
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 3: between these two teams. It's probably closer to Louisville, though.
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 3: So I think you'll probably get a pretty good amount
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 3: of Louisville fans there, but Ole Miss is going to
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 3: travel there as well. Now, both these teams have a
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 3: decent amount of returning production. Ole Miss... has 10 returning starters,
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 3: five on offense, five on defense. And these guys, remember
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 3: they're coming back from that playoff team that looked pretty
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 3: good last year playoffs. And it includes Trinidad Shambles. It
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 3: was able to return for another season. He looked really
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 3: good in the playoffs. He is Ole Miss's quarterback. So
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 3: they're going to have some continuity with him and most
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 3: of their offensive line coming back. And, uh, one of
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 3: the running backs Kutas is coming back as well. So
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 3: not a good name. I know. Um, Ole Miss is
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 3: going to have some continuity. I kind of think they're
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 3: going to be all right this year, man. I mean,
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 3: they look good. And Ole Miss does have a new coach,
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 3: which is, which is Golding, Pete Golding. But I think
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 3: that's good. I think they're going to have continuity because
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 3: he was their defensive coordinator. And you remember Lane Kiffin
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 3: left like before the playoffs last year. So Golding was
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 3: their coach in the playoffs last year. And they made
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 3: a nice run in the playoffs. If you remember, they,
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 3: I think they pulled off one pretty good upset in
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. And then they almost beat Miami. If I
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 3: remember correctly, um, So, yeah, Ole Miss was good in
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. So, Golding, that's going to be good for them,
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 3: I think, because he's already in the system. The system's
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 3: not going to really change. They already played for him
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 3: in the postseason. So, I think that's a good move
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 3: for Ole Miss. So, I think they're going to have continuity.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 3: I think that's good. As far as Louisville... Louisville's got
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 3: nine returning starters, and it includes their elite running back,
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 3: Isaac Brown, who missed like half the season last year,
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 3: and he still posted like ridiculous yards per carry numbers
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 3: or whatever. He's definitely good. He's going to be the
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 3: focal point of their offense, especially because they're going to
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 3: have to be working in a new quarterback here. So Louisville,
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 3: I forget the guy's name. They got some quarterback who
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 3: was one of the backups for Ohio State. He transferred
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 3: over to Louisville. So he's been in a good system learning,
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 3: but he doesn't have that much experience, I don't think.
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 3: So we'll see what that guy can do. He's going
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 3: to have to learn a new system here. So Louisville,
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 3: they might be slow to start on offense. They're going
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 3: to be running the football a lot, which might be
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 3: okay for trying to cover because it's going to slow
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 3: the game down. But I don't know, man. We'll see.
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 3: And they did return a lot of their defensive secondary
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 3: guys and stuff. A lot of guys are high on
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 3: Louisville this year. I'm not so sure about that. And
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 3: Ole Miss, I mean, they just play in a more
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 3: powerful conference, which is obviously the SEC. So Ole Miss
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 3: is definitely the better team Out of the two here
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 3: And Ole Miss does have more returning starters, including their QB.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 3: But the money's coming in on the underdog in this one.
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 3: I've heard a lot of professionals like Louisville here. If
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 3: you wanted the seven, it was there briefly, I think,
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 3: but it's gone. It opened six and a half. The
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 3: number is six and a half across the board. But
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 3: I would say if you like Louisville... I think you
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 3: should just wait because the public's going to be on
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 3: Ole Miss. 78% of tickets, 70% of the cash on them.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 3: So the money looks like it's agreeing with the Louisville
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 3: side and kind of agreeing with the under again as well.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 3: This is the highest total out of all the games,
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 3: by the way, 55. I don't love the under as
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 3: much in this game, though. I don't know, man. Even
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 3: though Louisville might be trying to slow the game down,
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 3: There's some continuity here, especially on the Ole Miss offensive side.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 3: I could see this game being a little bit more
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 3: of an over. Ole Miss is at six and a
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 3: half here. If you like Louisville, I would say you
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 3: want to wait because you might be able to get
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 3: a seven because the public's going to come in on
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 3: Ole Miss. This is going to be the most bet
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 3: game of the night, right, because this is the big
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 3: game of the weekend, so it's going to have the
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 3: biggest handle. And that probably means that it looks like
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 3: a seven is already kind of showing up here at
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 3: the lion book here.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 2: So.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you're probably going to be able to find a
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 3: 7 here because the public's going to come in in
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 3: a high-handle game, and it's going to put that number
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 3: up to 7. So if you like Louisville, I think
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 3: you can wait and get the 7. I kind of
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 3: like Ole Miss, though. I think the continuity is a
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 3: little bit better there. I prefer the SEC. I'm not
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 3: sold on what Louisville is doing here. And if Ole
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 3: Miss knows Louisville's focal point is going to be running
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 3: the football, they should be able to focus on that
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 3: and kind of know what they're going to do and
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 3: be able to kind of shut it down to some
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 3: extent here, even though Ole Miss is not necessarily that
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 3: good of a defense. But that's kind of what I
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 3: think about this game. Maybe I'm a little bit too
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 3: high on Ole Miss and a little bit too low
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 3: on Louisville. coming into the season, but that's the way
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 3: that it is. That's going to do it. My two
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 3: plays of the day here are in baseball. We're on
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 3: the first five money line with the Baltimore Orioles trying
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 3: to avoid the sweep. I know I'm fading Peyton Tolley here,
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 3: but the matchup numbers and the situation and the money
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 3: all support that. So, and yeah. That's all I got
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 3: to say on that. And then we're also on the
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 3: over 9.5 in Toronto, Kansas City, which I know seems
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 3: ugly asking those offenses to do that, but the pitching
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 3: is really bad in that game. So let's get it done, man.
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 3: Wait a minute. Did I get these numbers right here?
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 3: Hold on a minute. No. My apologies. I've had the
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 3: wrong number up all day here. Hold on. This is
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 3: the real number. I apologize. I added four to both
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 3: of them. I'm actually 212, 159, and 15, which is
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 3: not good. What does that come out to? It's 212
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 3: out of 371. I'm only running 57% now over that span, man.
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 3: I was over 60% for a couple months here since
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 3: I started tracking it on the tracker here, but it's
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 3: still profitable at 57, but we got to turn this
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 3: thing around, man, so let's do it. Those are the
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 3: plays today. I apologize. I've had the wrong number up there,
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 3: but I corrected it. I'm an honest man. There it is.
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Learn a tone on Twitter.
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 3: Learn a tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 3: and you'll get notified when I go live. I think
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to do another NFL preview. I don't
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 3: think you got all my recent thoughts. If you watched
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 3: Bald last night, which is probably a more entertaining way
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 3: to get it anyway. I had Clint from Liberty Locked
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 3: down on. You can go check that out. I still
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 3: have to update it and put all the... I have
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 3: to do the description and the show notes and whatever
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 3: and get it out on audio. Got to do that
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 3: for this show as well. Listen on audio. The audio
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 3: numbers have gone up. It's been good over there recently,
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 3: but I need them to be way higher. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 3: Covered in you because my ukulele channel on YouTube. You
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 3: can check that out, although it's a little bit slow going.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to only get stuff out when my voice
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 3: is actually all right. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you want
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 3: to support me that way, although I apologize with that.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 3: How little I put on there, man. Mostly just as
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 3: a support mechanism. But you get a Uke feed right
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 3: now and you get requests that take me forever to do.
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 3: So that's what you get over there right now. What else?
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 3: New York Giants G-Spot podcast. We've got to figure out
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 3: what's going on with that. And Loser Cast every Tuesday night. Although,
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 3: I've got to talk to the guys because I'm going
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 3: to be out on Tuesday this week. So we've got
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 3: to figure something out there. That's going to do it.
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 3: Happy Labor Day. I forgot it's Labor Day weekend, man. So...
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 3: A lot of people are going to have the day
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 3: off tomorrow, Labor Day. I'll still do the show in
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 3: the morning. We'll have a short show, and then I
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 3: got a cookout, Labor Day cookout to go to tomorrow.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 3: So that's going to be fun, hopefully. Hopefully we can
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 3: turn this around and get some fucking wins, man. We're
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 3: just back to baseball today. And Monday will only be baseball. Well, actually,
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Unless I have a play on that
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 3: one football game. I forgot about that. We'll see. It's
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 3: SMU and Florida State are that game. I don't think
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 3: I'm going to have a play on it, though. That's
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 3: going to do it. I appreciate it, guys. Peace for now.
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: somebody answer.
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: Not tonight.
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 4: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't.
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 2: now Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: solo