Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / We Are Not Responsible Enough to Handle AI
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: For the first time, somebody hit the brakes on the smartest machine ever built.
- 0:04SPEAKER_00: Not because it broke, but because it works too well.
- 0:08SPEAKER_00: The government quietly asked the biggest AI lab in the country to slow down the release of its newest model, to spread it out, to stagger it.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: Don't drop the whole thing on the world at once.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: And the AI lab, well, they said yes.
- 0:21SPEAKER_00: This is not a recall.
- 0:22SPEAKER_00: This is not a bug.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: This is a piece of technology so capable that the people in charge decided that the public should get it in pieces, on a leash, at a pace that they can actually control.
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: This is the whole show today, because once you understand that move, everything else this week starts to make sense.
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: Slowing down the release does not slow down the building.
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: Those are two different engines.
- 0:45SPEAKER_00: One is how fast they hand the keys to us.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: The other is how fast they build the next car in the garage.
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: You can throttle the first one all day long.
- 0:54SPEAKER_00: The second one, it never stops.
- 0:57SPEAKER_00: So picture two lines on a graph.
- 0:59SPEAKER_00: One line is what the public is allowed to use.
- 1:01SPEAKER_00: The other line is what these labs have already have running behind locked doors.
- 1:06SPEAKER_00: Every time they show the public line, the private line keeps climbing.
- 1:10SPEAKER_00: The gap between the two gets wider and wider.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: So for there, for years, there's a running joke in the AI world.
- 1:17SPEAKER_00: They would say, oh, the real breakthrough already happened inside of what we're using.
- 1:22SPEAKER_00: We just haven't seen it yet.
- 1:23SPEAKER_00: People laughed.
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: This week that joke stopped being a joke.
- 1:27SPEAKER_00: When you deliberately hold back the release, you're admitting the thing inside the building is further ahead than the thing in your hands.
- 1:35SPEAKER_00: It's like a restaurant with two menus: the one they hand you at the table and the one the chef actually cooks from in the back.
- 1:42SPEAKER_00: We've been ordering off the polite menu this entire time.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: Now let me show you why this matters for you.
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: The person watching this on a break, not for some investor that lives his existence in a glass tower.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: When power gets held back, it doesn't disappear, it pools, it concentrates.
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: The people inside the building get further and further ahead of the people outside the building.
- 2:05SPEAKER_00: And the people outside the building, well, that's us.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: The plumber, the teacher, the nurse, the single mom running a sign business off of her phone at midnight.
- 2:14SPEAKER_00: This is the thing that I'm not going to let slide.
- 2:16SPEAKER_00: The folks building these systems are not sitting around thinking about your mortgage.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: This is not them being evil, it's just plain and simple math.
- 2:25SPEAKER_00: They're optimizing for the race they are in.
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: So somebody has to do the thinking about us.
- 2:30SPEAKER_00: And that's actually the job I signed up for.
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: And the race is real because this isn't happening to us in a vacuum.
- 2:37SPEAKER_00: When one side slows down what it shows the public, the other side of the world gets a chance to catch up to that public line.
- 2:45SPEAKER_00: Not the secret line, but the public one.
- 2:47SPEAKER_00: So now you have a strange situation, Brewing.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: A country that was months behind gets to close the visible gap, while the leaders quietly pull further ahead in private.
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: That sets up a fight over who is even allowed to release what.
- 3:02SPEAKER_00: Talk of bans, talk of approval lists, talk of real penalties for shipping the wrong model.
- 3:07SPEAKER_00: And here's the trap.
- 3:09SPEAKER_00: None of that touches the part that actually matters.
- 3:12SPEAKER_00: The machines that are learning to improve themselves don't care about a release schedule.
- 3:17SPEAKER_00: You can ban a download.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: You can't ban the building.
- 3:20SPEAKER_00: So the policy fights over what gets shipped while the real action keeps happening where nobody's losing.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: That's your big story, and hold on to that because every other headline this week is a branch off that same trunk.
- 3:32SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about your wallet because this already showed up at the checkout counter.
- 3:36SPEAKER_00: One of the biggest companies on Earth just raised the price of its laptops and tablets by$200 or more.
- 3:43SPEAKER_00: First time they have pushed this kind of cost straight to the consumer.
- 3:46SPEAKER_00: The reason, well, it's memory.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: The chips that store and move data are suddenly scarce and expensive because every AI data center on the planet is buying them by the truckload.
- 3:58SPEAKER_00: Think about what that means.
- 4:00SPEAKER_00: The AI boom is not just a thing on your screen anymore.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: It is reaching into a store, into a price tag, into the thing that you are going to buy your kid for school.
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: The head of that company said the cost spike is unlike anything he has ever seen in the last 40 years.
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: It's a new kind of inflation, and it's not coming from gas or groceries first.
- 4:21SPEAKER_00: It's coming from compute, from the electricity, from the memory, from the warehouses full of machines learning to think.
- 4:28SPEAKER_00: The cost has to go somewhere, and it always rolls downhill to us like an out-of-control snowball.
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: So when somebody tells you AI's free, gently remind them nothing is free.
- 4:38SPEAKER_00: Somebody is paying for a power bill.
- 4:40SPEAKER_00: Lately, more and more, it's showing up on yours.
- 4:43SPEAKER_00: Now, on the flip side of that, because it's not all squeezed, there's an escape hatch, and it's called efficiency.
- 4:49SPEAKER_00: The fix for expensive AI is cheaper AI, and the engineers are chasing it hard.
- 4:55SPEAKER_00: This is a new work on running these systems, completely different kinds of hardware.
- 5:00SPEAKER_00: Physical systems, substrates that sit power instead of guzzling it.
- 5:04SPEAKER_00: The goal is a thousand times more efficient while keeping the quality very high.
- 5:09SPEAKER_00: And under the hood, the chips themselves are about to take a leap.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: There is a new design that crams nearly a hundred billion tiny switches into a piece of silicon the size of your fingernail, smaller than a nanometer.
- 5:21SPEAKER_00: To put that in plain terms, a nanometer is so small you could line up tens of thousands of them across a single human hair.
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: And they're building that now.
- 5:31SPEAKER_00: The promise is up to 70% better efficiency in the next handful of years.
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: And why should you care about a fingernail full of switches?
- 5:38SPEAKER_00: Well, because efficiency, that's the great equalizer.
- 5:42SPEAKER_00: When the tech gets cheaper to run, it stops being a toy for giants and starts being a tool for the rest of us.
- 5:48SPEAKER_00: The hairstylist gets an assistant, the contractor gets a dispatcher, the corner shop gets a system that used to cost a fortune.
- 5:54SPEAKER_00: That's the door I'm trying to hold open for everyone.
- 5:58SPEAKER_00: Speaking of the work changing, here's a number that stopped me cold.
- 6:02SPEAKER_00: A coding tool inside one of these big labs is now writing almost all of its own output.
- 6:07SPEAKER_00: We're talking 99.8% of the code it produces every week generated by the machine itself.
- 6:14SPEAKER_00: And the people using it are not just programmers anymore.
- 6:17SPEAKER_00: Folks who never wrote a line of code in their life are using it more than a hundred times as much as they were less than a year ago.
- 6:24SPEAKER_00: The machine is largely building the machine.
- 6:27SPEAKER_00: And the door to using it just swung wide open to the regular people.
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: It's the difference between needing a slight, a licensed electrician for every little thing and suddenly being handed a tool that wires the house for you while you point at where you want the lights.
- 6:42SPEAKER_00: This is happening right now in real companies with real deadlines.
- 6:46SPEAKER_00: This is exactly where I live.
- 6:48SPEAKER_00: This is the work voice systems that answer the phone for businesses at two o'clock in the morning.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: Automations that follow up with a lead so the owner can actually sleep or work somewhere else.
- 6:58SPEAKER_00: The thing that giants are building for themselves, we can point at our own lives, at our own businesses.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: And that's the whole game.
- 7:05SPEAKER_00: Not watching the future happen for other people or to them, but deploying it ourselves.
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: Now let me take you somewhere that sounds like science fiction and is actually becoming science fact, and it's sitting in a lab right now.
- 7:17SPEAKER_00: The body.
- 7:18SPEAKER_00: There's a company whose stock jumped 24% on early results for a hair loss treatment that an AI designed.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Not discovered by accident, designed.
- 7:28SPEAKER_00: A major drug company put a hand,$100 million behind it and behind a treatment for a painful condition that affects millions of women and has been ignored for far too long.
- 7:38SPEAKER_00: There's a research group pointing at the same AI biology at rare diseases.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: The ones too small to ever get attention.
- 7:46SPEAKER_00: The ones where a family is on their own with a diagnosis nobody has ever heard of.
- 7:51SPEAKER_00: And there's a team that took the image of the blood vessels inside a living brain through the intact skull with sound waves.
- 7:57SPEAKER_00: They put the whole method out in front of anybody to build on it.
- 8:00SPEAKER_00: This is a step towards a day when checking what's happening inside your head is as simple as putting on a skull cap or a headset.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: For most of history, the cutting edge of medicine was for the few, the well-connected, the wealthy, the people who knew which door to knock on.
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: When AI designs the drug and somebody pushes the method for free, the edge starts reaching for the rest of us.
- 8:22SPEAKER_00: The veteran, the grandmother, the kid nobody could diagnose.
- 8:26SPEAKER_00: That's the promise.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: And we have to make sure it actually gets here.
- 8:30SPEAKER_00: Nobody stops it.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: And the body is going mobile in another way too.
- 8:34SPEAKER_00: There's now a humanoid robot, one that walks and runs and gets back up when it falls, seeing for around the price of a decent gaming computer, under$5,000.
- 8:43SPEAKER_00: A robot in that range is not a someday number, that a this year number for Christmas.
- 8:49SPEAKER_00: Now here's the hard one.
- 8:50SPEAKER_00: The defense side rewrote its own rule book.
- 8:53SPEAKER_00: The language now allows AI to take the first step in a wartime action with a human watching.
- 8:59SPEAKER_00: That's watching, folks, not pulling the trigger.
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: Watching.
- 9:02SPEAKER_00: We've spent years promising that there would always be a human fully in the loop.
- 9:07SPEAKER_00: This is a quiet step towards a human standing next to the loop instead of inside it.
- 9:12SPEAKER_00: Now I'm not here to scare you, I want to be straight with you, but when a system can move faster than a person can react, putting a human nearby is not the same as putting a human in charge.
- 9:22SPEAKER_00: Anyone who's ever had to make a split-second decision under pressure knows the difference between being the one who decides and being the one who is told after.
- 9:31SPEAKER_00: We should all want to know which one we are signing up for.
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: Closer to home, there's finally an honest attempt to measure what AI is doing to our jobs.
- 9:39SPEAKER_00: One state stood up a tracker to watch for it.
- 9:42SPEAKER_00: The early read is not a sudden collapse, no overnight apocalypse, instead of it's it's a real pain hitting certain educated workers in certain fields first.
- 9:51SPEAKER_00: That matches what I see on the ground.
- 9:53SPEAKER_00: It's not a tidal wave, it's a slow ride.
- 9:55SPEAKER_00: And slow, slow are the ones that catch people who are sure the water would have never reached them.
- 10:00SPEAKER_00: So what do we do with all this?
- 10:02SPEAKER_00: Because I'm not going to leave you standing in a storm without a coat.
- 10:05SPEAKER_00: Here's the through line: the single most important pattern of the week.
- 10:08SPEAKER_00: The distance between what AI can do and what we are allowed to see is growing on purpose.
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: The release gets throttled and price quietly climbs.
- 10:17SPEAKER_00: The robots get cheap, the drugs get designed by the software, the weapons get a little bit more autonomous, and the real power keeps pooling in a small number of rooms most of us will never stand in.
- 10:28SPEAKER_00: It's not a reason to panic, but it is a reason to pay attention because here's what they're counting on.
- 10:33SPEAKER_00: They're counting on the rest of us, watching the polite menu while they cook the real one.
- 10:37SPEAKER_00: They're counting on us feeling like, well, this is too big, it's too fast, it's too technical.
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: It's none of our business.
- 10:43SPEAKER_00: It is our business.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: And it is the most important our business will ever be.
- 10:49SPEAKER_00: So we learn it.
- 10:50SPEAKER_00: We use the tools the moment they are cheap enough to touch.
- 10:53SPEAKER_00: We put the voice agent on our small business.
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: We let the AI draft the letter and design the flyer and answer the phone.
- 11:00SPEAKER_00: We close the gap on our own side with our own hands instead of waiting for permission.
- 11:05SPEAKER_00: There's an old line I keep coming back to.
- 11:07SPEAKER_00: The oldest secrets are the ones that get read last.
- 11:10SPEAKER_00: This week, researchers finally enrolled a scroll that was buried and sealed for almost 2,000 years and read it in the first time.
- 11:18SPEAKER_00: You know what it turned out to be?
- 11:19SPEAKER_00: A lesson on how to live well, on ethics, on keeping your head when the entire world is on fire.
- 11:25SPEAKER_00: 2,000 years buried.
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: And the message at the center of it was about character.
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: You can stagger a release, you can throttle a download, you can hold the menu back, but you can't throttle a mind that has decided to finally understand.
- 11:39SPEAKER_00: This is the one thing they cannot put a leash, and that's yours.
- 11:44SPEAKER_00: So that's the assignment.
- 11:45SPEAKER_00: Stay curious, stay sharp, stay in the room even when they would rather have you wait outside.
- 11:50SPEAKER_00: This is AI with honor.
- 11:52SPEAKER_00: And the whole reason this show exists is simple.
- 11:55SPEAKER_00: The power should not be only to the people who can afford to live in glass towers.
- 12:00SPEAKER_00: It belongs to all of us the plumber, the nurse, the veteran, the single mom at midnight, AI for everyone, not just the wealthy, not just the connected, but everyone.
- 12:11SPEAKER_00: We'll be right here tomorrow reading by the menu that they didn't hand us.
- 12:15SPEAKER_00: Take care of each other, and please be careful out there, and thank you for watching.
- 12:19SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with honor.
- 12:20SPEAKER_00: Good day.