Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Violent Veggies & MLB Win Totals with Sean Zerillo

Transcript

Violent Veggies & MLB Win Totals with Sean Zerillo · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm branding Kravitz, your host.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Back at it with partials of the crew. The first
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: lady of the pod, Kendra Middleton, is with me. Stucky,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: still reeling from the end of the first two rounds
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: of the NCAA tournament as a single tear drops from
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: his cheek. Brackets are busted, hearts are broken, Cinderella officially
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: booted from the dance.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: How you doing, Kendra?
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: I'm doing okay.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: My bracket sucks.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: I've had the worst betting streak of my entire existence.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: I don't care what I put in the app fade
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: me for the rest of eternity. In this tournament. I'm
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: hoping my futures can save me. But yeah, tough tournament
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: for me. I will say I did admit this on
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: social media. I am the and on the air on
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: my other shows. I'm the first person to admit when
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: I'm wrong, and this tournament might be it proof.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So I have an issue with your take on this
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: in two different directions because I think that your initial take,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: which was Cinderella is dead.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: The tournament is broken.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: You had that was, you had that one in case,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: you had you had it laminated and everything full year.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Then we had a decent opening round of the tournament,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: and you broke the glass and said I was wrong.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I actually think your initial take was the right one.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Not that the tournament is broken. The tournament is fun,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: but it's not what it was. Yeah, like we have
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: if we could get the voice of God, Evan Abramson
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: here he hit us up in the chat just now
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: and said that Cinderella is alive in the Texas Longhorns.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: The day that Texas, which has a bigger nil budget
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: than anybody else in the country, becomes our Cinderella, IOWA
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: in the Big Ten, one of the best, if not
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the best, basketball conference in the country, If that's what
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: we're determining that, I think your original take was right,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: and I don't think you ever should have apologized for it.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: I just think that, like the competition is better, Like
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: these Cinderellas are playing up to big teams better, but
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: we're obviously not getting those big upsets. So it's entertaining
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: good basketball. But I'm having I will say, maybe you
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: are correct, because I'm having way more fun watching the
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: women's tournament. Even though these like number one and number
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: two seeds are beating the shit out of everybody else.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: You can't smasgine.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Evan, you cube, Evan, Please tell me you were joking
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: when you called Texas a Cinderella.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: It just depends on.
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: What you're talking about, right, Like, we haven't.
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: Seen a a mid major team the last two years
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: is deep, but Texas was fifteen hundred to one, So like,
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: it depends on what you're looking at in terms of
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: mid major Like, yeah, obviously the uh you know, the
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: low what.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, where the fuck is this school?
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: That?
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: To me, that's what that's a Cinderella.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I see even high Like if High Point had
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: made it to the sweet sixteen, that's a perfect example.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I get that Texas was in the first four, but
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Texas will never ever ever be a Cinderella story.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: We are getting corn mgeddon do you guys have you
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: guys seen no Nebraska Iowa?
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: Oh yeah, no, we understand it.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I definitely thought you said something else. Never mind, all right, moving.
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: On, thank you have to go. Sorry, my mom's here.
• 3:28
  Speaker 6: All right, Kendri, what's on your mind today?
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Okay?
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: The question of the week. If you had to use
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: a vegetable to defend yourself in combat, what vegetable are
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: you using?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I I'm cheating because I looked ahead in the dock,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: so I have put some thought into this. I'm using
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: a holopeno. What I'm using, first of all, very discreet.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: You don't even know I have a weapon. I will
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: cut it in half. I will squeeze it into your eyeball,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: and now you're blinded.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: My sweet potato in a tube sock is gonna beat
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: the ship out of your julapeno bit.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I will duck.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I will duck your sweet potato, squeeze the halopano juice
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: right into your eye.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: That is a terrible answer, Kravitz.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I was. I was once.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Once it popped into my head, I thought, well, this
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: this experiment is done for me, because clearly this is
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the best answer we were trying would be the answer.
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: We were trying to predict what your answer was going
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: to be before you got on and Evan said that
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: he would shape a carrot into a shank.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Evan, do you still do you still stand by that?
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Is it? Is it still carrot shank for you?
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: I mean it's like that or a yuka or a
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: sweet potato. I mean, if you had like handicapped this
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: this and bringing Kerner and like set odds, it's gotta
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: be one of those the show an onion?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Why would why would you choose a potato over an onion?
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: It's the same level of density.
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: The onion and halapeno take too long to come together.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: Like by the time you've you've gotten me with either
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: of those, I have killed you with Mike Carrot, I can.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: Make you with the onion and whap you over the
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: head with the oven.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Now, I would cut a pumpkin open and cover myself
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: and it's guts, so I would be slippery before you
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: could even get to me with that damn halapeno. Or
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: I would just throw tomatoes at you and boo you Kravitz.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: That's not not the worst idea of the pumpkin one.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: I kind of like that. Let's get to our main
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: dish today.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: JSN got paid. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: signed a four year, one hundred and sixty eight million
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: dollar contract with the Seahawks forty two per year. Guys
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: twenty four years old, He's a super professional just now
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: entering his prime. Best receiver in football last year and
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: he's got a ring. I have no issue with this whatsoever.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I'm sure friend of the show Nick Lee also very
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: happy with this as well.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Two thumbs up for Seattle. An obvious move. You are
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: shaking your head.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: Shot out, Nicklee. I love him to death, love him
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: to death. I understand why they had to pay him,
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: but I just kind of hate it. Like Sam Darnold,
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: he needs him as a security blanket. But I would
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: much rather have a young quarterback that elevates, you know,
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: a cheaper receiver than pay JSN this amount of money.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I know that's kind of well yeah, because they're like,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: they're going in the opposite direction. Usually you pay the
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: quarterback that the quarterback elevates average receivers, makes them good,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: or makes a good receiver great. You're taking your great
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: receiver and hoping that he makes an average quarterback great.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: But really it worked.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: And that's what happens when you win a Super Bowl
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: is you end up paying the people that help.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Get you there.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: The thing that made my first thing that came to
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: mind is, holy fucking shit, Pooka Nakua is about to
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: make so much money it makes me want.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: To throw up.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but the difference is, are we sure Pooka Nakua
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: is that super professional? I think part of the reason
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: you pay jsentence because you don't even worry about him.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: He's just, you know, he's a lunch paiale guy who
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: happened to be super athletic.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: It doesn't really matter. We see these like diva receivers
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: still get paid in the NFL all the time, like
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: AJ Brown, Like he's the definition of a diva and
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: he's still making money and people are going to give
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: up a first and a second round pick to get
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: him if he's not gone by Jude first like it does.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: It doesn't matter. If you're good enough, you're gonna get paid.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: Look at freakin' Deshaun Watson. He's a piece of crap
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: and made a bag.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Well, I blame the Browns. I blame the
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Browns ownership. Jimmy has them for that one. I don't
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: know that anybody else has given him that, but at
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: least I hope that that's the case. Now that's not
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the only wide receiver news we have in Seattle. I
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: am sure that you are absolutely gutted as the Seahawks
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: are matching a Jaguars qualifying offer for wide receiver Jake Bobo.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: What I would you believe me if I told you
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: I almost cried about this because I did.
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: I was so pissed.
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: The marriage of North Andover Massachusetts and Jacksonville.
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: Florida was so close for me.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: I needed a Bobo jersey like that that would go
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: so crazy in teal. I hated this.
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: I hated this so much.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, JSN, good to go in the clear.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: No dagger to the heart. Literally, just take me out back.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Do we have an early candidate for Bete jail? Is
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Jake Bobo gonna enter early off season?
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Bete?
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: He's dead to me. He's literally dead to me. It's
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: not his fault at all. It's literally it has nothing
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: to do with him. It has it's nothing and no,
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: but I can't, and good faith, I cannot carrot dagger
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: to the heart. Yes, David Payne, harrot Shank.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: We also have, uh, speaking of heart, so we have
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: America's sweetheart, Travis Kelsey locked in for twenty twenty six.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: He signed a three year, fifty four million dollar deal,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: putting him right behind George Kittle and Trey McBride in
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: terms of average annual value. Those two, by the way,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: at this stage in their career, significantly better than what
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey is. This feels very much like a thank
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: you contract for Kelsey.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: Disgusting, disingenuous. This isn't a thank you contract. This is
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: a Taylor Swift is making us so much money. Will
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: pay you whatever you want because we're selling.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Your Do you honest Do you honestly think she has
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: something to do with the dollar amount here?
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: Babe? I'm a girl.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna hold your nostril hairs when I tell you this, Okay.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: I have gone to so many women's sporting events in
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: the grocery store, it does not matter. Every casual sports
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: fan I have seen is in a Travis Kelcey jersey.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: And these girls, and I'm not shaving women who want
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: to get into football or anything like that, but they
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: think that they know absolutely everything because they've watched one
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: season of football, because they're a swifty And nothing drives
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: me more insane than these girls who just hopped on
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: this bandwagon. I'm happy to have you, happy to have you.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: I'm not gay keeping shit, but please read a book,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: get off of swifty Twitter. If you actually want to
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: care about football. You got to care about football, not
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: just Travis Kelsey, babe. Like it has opened such a
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: swifty portal of the female sports fan that it makes
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: me so irrationally angry.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, when you have fans that are only tuned
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: in for those particular occasions where the Chiefs and Kelsey
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: are on the screen, I don't know if that helps
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the sport. There's obviously a much bigger conversation to have
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: here about you know, if you want to do the
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: whole dad's watching football with their daughter's thing and all
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: of that. But you're talking about folks at the bar
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: pretending like they've been locked in on the NFL for
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a decade. That's my only issue in regards to what
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: you're saying is when any and that's when anybody does
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: this in any walk of life. And this seems to
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: happen in sports more than anything else where people show
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: up to the party and act like they've been at
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: the party for twenty years. You gotta kind of know
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I would never walk in I know nothing about cars.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I would never decide one day that I'm into cars
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: and then walk into a mechanic shop being like, all right,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: we are the wug nuts, you know, Like I don't know,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: so I think it's there's there's some pretender that's going on,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: but it is.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: It is cranking out the cash for the NFL.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, they had to pay him whatever he wanted
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: because she's making them so much money.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: And in look and I think eye test wise, and
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: compared to his previous statistics, there was clearly a drop
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: off with him. I was looking at some of the
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: advanced numbers. He wasn't actually as bad as our eyes
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: would tell us. He was still fourth in yards at
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: the position, third in yards after catch, he was third
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: in total EPA per play.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: He wasn't a bad tight end. He's just not what
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: he was. So it's slow as shit.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: But in some respects now they use the shit out
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: of him, so I think that helps booy some of
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: those statistics.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's as official as it used to be,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: but because.
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they had to.
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: They had so many injuries to start the season, like
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: they had to rely on him. He had to be
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: a security blanket, whether he was a shell of himself.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: Or not shell of himself.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: But still, maybe it's just because there aren't many great
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: tight ends.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: In the NFL.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: He's still better than a lot of tight ends. I
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: think that's an accurate thing to say at this point.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: I just with another year and all of these miles
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: on him, I would be shocked if he's a top
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: ten this year. And like that sounds crazy to say
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: because he's still Travis Kelcey, but I will legitimately be
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: shocked if he is a top ten tight end this year.
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: He should have walked off into the rainbow sunset. Go
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: get married, Go start a family, Go do your podcast
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: with your brother, and help her mom renovate her home.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: You're gonna It's one of those things where we deal
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: with it in sports all the time, where we see
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: someone that was so beloved for quite some time just
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: stick around too long that it ruins their legacy. Look
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: at Bill Belichick, You should have rolled off into the sunset,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: been a legend, you know you had.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Look at gros he could be Gronk.
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: Like Gronk knew when to walk away. Know when to
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: walk away. Don't ruin your legacy. Go live this next
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: chapter of your life, because your height of fame is
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: never going to be this high again.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Walk away.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I think in this is getting really pop psychology on you.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: I think part of it is that Travis Kelcey is
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: scared because he doesn't know what's next outside of being
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: on a podcast, which doesn't provide you the same level
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: of fame or meaning as being a star football player
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: does the same level of attention and love and admiration,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and as though his future wife has that more than
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: anyone on planet Earth. And if he walks away, he
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: becomes complete second fiddle. So I think there's probably there's
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: gotta be some paranoia, like if I I can't stop
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: doing this, because then I lose all meaning.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: In this relationship.
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: Every athlete goes through that, man like get a therapist, babe.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: We're about to dive deep into Major League Baseball regular
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: season win totals with the guru of all things Baseball,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: But first a word from DraftKings.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Droptking Sportsbook, and you
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: should know. DraftKings is the sportsbook for betting on NBA stars.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: It is Tuesday, which means all customers have a shot
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: at a share of two million dollars in bonus bets
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  Speaker 3: when they place a five dollars pre game player prop
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  Speaker 3: bet on the night's pra Leader. King of the Court
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: is live every week of the NBA season. Bet must
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: be on the pre Leader which NBA star will rule
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: the court. Sign up now using promo code of Favorites
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: to get in on the action Now.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo baseball betting analysts for US here at Action Network,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a man who mopped up in the World Baseball Classic.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you Sean for that. You can catch him on
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: the Payoff Pitch podcast all season long. Baseball season has
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: essentially arrived, Sean, you must be pretty jacked up about that.
• 14:53
  Speaker 7: Oh yeah, one more day and then we got a
• 14:55
  Speaker 7: game on Netflix for some reason, I don't love the
• 14:58
  Speaker 7: monetization and corporatization of.
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: The game that we love.
• 15:01
  Speaker 7: But then a full slate on Thursday, and I never
• 15:04
  Speaker 7: understand why a lot of these teams end up having
• 15:05
  Speaker 7: an off day after their first game either. I don't
• 15:09
  Speaker 7: really understand the scheduling of that. But we'll launch fully
• 15:11
  Speaker 7: into things on Saturday, I think with all teams playing,
• 15:14
  Speaker 7: so yeah, full weekend of Baseball ahead Survivor pools does
• 15:17
  Speaker 7: make it a little bit difficult fantasy as well. Normally,
• 15:20
  Speaker 7: I feel like for Fantasy Survivor they give you that
• 15:22
  Speaker 7: like ten day first week. They compressed everything into a
• 15:25
  Speaker 7: four or five three four five day first week here,
• 15:27
  Speaker 7: So that's a little weird, but I couldn't be more
• 15:30
  Speaker 7: excited to have two four hundred and thirty regular season
• 15:34
  Speaker 7: games to handicap and then all the playoffs behind it.
• 15:36
  Speaker 7: So yeah, we've been fully launched into baseball already with
• 15:41
  Speaker 7: the WBC and got the warm up out of the
• 15:43
  Speaker 7: way and ready for the regular season.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Well, look, these massive contracts aren't going to pay for themselves,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: so they got to come up with creative ways to
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: generate that sort of revenue. You get the one off
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: with the Yankees and the Giants on Wednesday night and
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: then the traditional opening day on Thursday. We're talking mL
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: BE season long win totals on today's podcast. Primarily we
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: might fit some other things in there as well, but
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: this is your last chance to get in pre flop
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: on the win totals across the league. What's the first
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: thing that people need to look at when diving into
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: baseball win totals? And I ask because we're in an
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: NFL betting podcast. In the NFL, you start with the schedule.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: In baseball, I would think that that's a lot less
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: irrelevant because you're playing everybody in the NBA. It's very
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: player driven with new additions to the team because one
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: player makes such a massive difference on what your season
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: outlook is, what's and there are multiple factors, but what's
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the number one key to baseball totals?
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Where do you start at?
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: Number one?
• 16:44
  Speaker 7: I would say is the fact that if you add
• 16:46
  Speaker 7: up all the win totals at a specific book, you're
• 16:48
  Speaker 7: going to get higher than the possible number of wins
• 16:50
  Speaker 7: you could have in a season. So books are going
• 16:52
  Speaker 7: to overinflate their win total market by eight wins, fifteen wins,
• 16:56
  Speaker 7: what have you. So generally speaking, unders are more profitable
• 17:00
  Speaker 7: or there's going to be more value on unders, just
• 17:02
  Speaker 7: because there's more possible wins listed for these teams than
• 17:05
  Speaker 7: they could possibly win in a season. Now, even beyond that,
• 17:09
  Speaker 7: I think there's a wide range of publicly available win
• 17:12
  Speaker 7: total projections, not only my own, which you can find
• 17:15
  Speaker 7: on Action network dot com, but also and you could
• 17:16
  Speaker 7: find this in my article as well, so you don't
• 17:18
  Speaker 7: have to jump around and do all the work, but
• 17:20
  Speaker 7: other publicly available projections from Fangrafts, Pacoda ATC again if
• 17:24
  Speaker 7: you go to my article, you can find on the
• 17:27
  Speaker 7: tabs for these divisions my win total and then all
• 17:29
  Speaker 7: the other win totals that are out there, so you
• 17:31
  Speaker 7: can kind of paint a picture of the expected range
• 17:34
  Speaker 7: of outcomes that these teams have. And some teams have
• 17:36
  Speaker 7: very narrow ranges, just two or three wins. Other teams
• 17:39
  Speaker 7: have much wider ranges, which are closer to ten wins
• 17:43
  Speaker 7: in their projection gap. So finding where there is consensus
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: value on specific teams. For example, a team like the
• 17:50
  Speaker 7: Mariners who can get to but everybody thinks the Mariners
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: are winning their division over fifty percent of the time.
• 17:55
  Speaker 7: There's other consensus teams like the Marlins, who I'm really
• 17:57
  Speaker 7: high on. Every single prediction out there, every public projection
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: thinks the Marlins are going over their win total this year,
• 18:04
  Speaker 7: and I'm actually at the little bit of the higher
• 18:06
  Speaker 7: end of that range. So you can use publicly available
• 18:09
  Speaker 7: data to form a consensus opinion, but no going in
• 18:12
  Speaker 7: when you form that consensus that you're likelier to have
• 18:14
  Speaker 7: more value on the unders as opposed.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: To the overs.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: Amen to that love betting a good baseball under. Is
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: there anything that happened in spring training? That change your opinion.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: I guess we can layer the World Baseball Classic into
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: this as well, though that's more players specific than teams specific.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: But admittedly, and I love watching baseball, I ignore spring training.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I mean to me, it's just like background noise. I
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: don't factor that in. But you're much more keyed in
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: on this stuff than I am. Are you looking at
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: spring training performances from teams, from specific players and factoring
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: that into your season long analysis to degree?
• 18:55
  Speaker 7: I think something you can find noise in or something
• 18:58
  Speaker 7: you could find signal in in small samples. As a
• 19:00
  Speaker 7: post the noise is strikeout rate. Strikeout rate tends to
• 19:03
  Speaker 7: stabilize much more quickly than other data points. Sixty plate appearances,
• 19:07
  Speaker 7: one hundred plate appearances. You can actually paint a pretty
• 19:10
  Speaker 7: good picture of a player's strikeout rate expected strike out rate,
• 19:13
  Speaker 7: both for hitters and for pitchers, so it could be
• 19:15
  Speaker 7: extremely useful. Somebody who've been monitoring the strike out rate
• 19:19
  Speaker 7: very closely for this year is Ronald the Kunu Junior.
• 19:21
  Speaker 7: Because you go back to his MVP season, Acunya struck
• 19:25
  Speaker 7: out like eleven percent of the time. You look at
• 19:27
  Speaker 7: the rest of his career history, it's north of twenty percent.
• 19:30
  Speaker 7: So if Ronald the Kuna Junior is able to cut
• 19:32
  Speaker 7: a strikeout rate down in half where he had it
• 19:34
  Speaker 7: fro him previously, he's an MVP candidate immediately. Again, his
• 19:38
  Speaker 7: strikeout rate between the WBC and Spring is kind of
• 19:41
  Speaker 7: where it was previously, but his walk rate is shot up,
• 19:43
  Speaker 7: and his walk right shot up last year too, So
• 19:46
  Speaker 7: I think you're sort of seeing the evolution of a
• 19:48
  Speaker 7: Ronald Lacunya that is going to be a little bit
• 19:50
  Speaker 7: more patient at the plate and hunting for power and
• 19:52
  Speaker 7: big swings at the dish and looking for home runs.
• 19:55
  Speaker 7: So maybe not going to get that forty forty season again,
• 19:58
  Speaker 7: but maybe tilting towards getting closer to fifty home runs,
• 20:01
  Speaker 7: potentially closer to thirty steels, just because he's not going
• 20:03
  Speaker 7: to be standing on first base as much so finding
• 20:06
  Speaker 7: strikeout rate differentials relative to previous performance. Obviously, injury news
• 20:12
  Speaker 7: is the biggest factor with your note about you know
• 20:14
  Speaker 7: teams who have been impacted most by Spring. It's clearly
• 20:17
  Speaker 7: the braves, the braves of Blast, Spencer, schwellenbach Hurst and
• 20:20
  Speaker 7: Waldrop and now Spencer Strider is on the ale as well.
• 20:23
  Speaker 7: Ranaldo Lopez's velocity is down, and Jerickson Profar got suspended.
• 20:28
  Speaker 7: So five key players for the Braves that were expected
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: to be there at the starter spring are either on
• 20:33
  Speaker 7: the IL or gone for the season. The Braves are
• 20:36
  Speaker 7: a team who I bet the win total under, and
• 20:38
  Speaker 7: I've also bet them to miss the playoffs during spring.
• 20:40
  Speaker 7: And as I just mentioned with the Marlins, I think
• 20:42
  Speaker 7: a team like the Marlins or a team like the
• 20:44
  Speaker 7: Pirates now have a path to potentially finding a back
• 20:47
  Speaker 7: end playoff spot because if you assume the Mets and
• 20:49
  Speaker 7: Phillies will probably get playoff spots, the Cubs and Brewers,
• 20:52
  Speaker 7: I think will both get playoff spots. The Doughters, we know,
• 20:55
  Speaker 7: will get a playoff spot. That's five of the six
• 20:57
  Speaker 7: playoff teams in.
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: The National League.
• 20:58
  Speaker 7: So if you're going to kick Atlanta out of there,
• 21:00
  Speaker 7: it does open the window for a team like Miami
• 21:03
  Speaker 7: or the Giants, or for the Pirates. So I think
• 21:06
  Speaker 7: there's a chance, or I think there's a good chance
• 21:08
  Speaker 7: that we get a quote unquote surprise playoff team from
• 21:11
  Speaker 7: the NL as a result of how poorly the first
• 21:14
  Speaker 7: month prior to the season has gone for Atlanta. Just
• 21:17
  Speaker 7: the other thing about your point. For the World Baseball Classic,
• 21:19
  Speaker 7: the Red Sox and Royals players performed really well.
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: I know it's a small.
• 21:22
  Speaker 7: Sample, but those guys were heavily involved on good teams
• 21:27
  Speaker 7: and having good performances. And I think, you know, concerning
• 21:30
  Speaker 7: the Royals players, specifically Pasquentino, Jackkaggs, Michael Garcia who won
• 21:35
  Speaker 7: tournament MVP, I think they all just showed great play discipline.
• 21:38
  Speaker 7: They're all young hitters who are continuing to get better,
• 21:41
  Speaker 7: and in key spots and high pressure at bats, they
• 21:43
  Speaker 7: showed that they were willing to wait for their pitch
• 21:46
  Speaker 7: and take very patient abs and you know, not swing
• 21:49
  Speaker 7: at balls and only swing at strikes. And that is
• 21:52
  Speaker 7: the general like thesis that I have going forward, or
• 21:56
  Speaker 7: the corner that I want to be gone going forward,
• 21:57
  Speaker 7: and what I plan to incorporate more to the data
• 21:59
  Speaker 7: MO is swing selection data, swinging at strikes, not swinging
• 22:03
  Speaker 7: at balls, knowing the swing at the right pitches, because
• 22:06
  Speaker 7: that is a very process driven stat and the more
• 22:09
  Speaker 7: good pitches you're swinging at, the more bad pitches you're
• 22:11
  Speaker 7: avoiding swinging at, the more production you should ultimately have.
• 22:14
  Speaker 7: So I think that's a really good data point and
• 22:17
  Speaker 7: something that people do not look at yet that I
• 22:19
  Speaker 7: think a year from now, two years from now will
• 22:21
  Speaker 7: have a number and people will will ave a debate
• 22:24
  Speaker 7: who has the best swing selection.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: So I am not the biggest baseball better in the world.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: I will say the pitch clock has drawn me back in.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: And I know that the World Baseball Classic drew better
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: ratings than the NBA Finals last year. So maybe we're
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: seeing baseball move back up into that second slot of
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: America's favorite sport behind football. In your opinion, I know
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: we're talking win totals today, but do you think that
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: that has the best of value in futures? Would it
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: be cy Young's, would it be MVPs? Would it be
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: World Series futures? Where can casuals like myself maybe find
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: the best value.
• 22:54
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think some of these divisional prices, like I
• 22:57
  Speaker 7: mentioned with Seattle. I make Seattle about minus four hundred
• 22:59
  Speaker 7: and you can still bet them at plus money, and
• 23:01
  Speaker 7: every other projecting system aside from my own, says they're
• 23:04
  Speaker 7: a value bet to win their division, win the al wells.
• 23:06
  Speaker 7: So there can be some humongous edges in terms of
• 23:09
  Speaker 7: divisional odds, not necessarily win totals or World Series. It's
• 23:15
  Speaker 7: tough to find bigger edges or big edges in those markets.
• 23:17
  Speaker 7: Seattle again is a consensus World Series value pick. But
• 23:20
  Speaker 7: I'd say to make the playoffs, to make or miss
• 23:22
  Speaker 7: the playoffs, and then the divisional odds are where you're
• 23:25
  Speaker 7: going to find the biggest values in the team futures market.
• 23:27
  Speaker 7: I bet Houston at plus one fifty five plus one
• 23:30
  Speaker 7: sixty five to miss the playoffs. I bet San Diego
• 23:32
  Speaker 7: in a similar range. They're both minus one ten.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 23:34
  Speaker 7: So a month ago, you know, six weeks ago, if
• 23:38
  Speaker 7: you had jumped on those bets, I thought there was
• 23:40
  Speaker 7: a fifteen to twenty percent edge on those bets, like
• 23:43
  Speaker 7: a humongous edge, and edge you'll never find on a
• 23:45
  Speaker 7: single regular season game. Right now, that bet that has
• 23:48
  Speaker 7: the humongous edge is Seattle to win the Ale West.
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: So I think that's the best bet on the board.
• 23:52
  Speaker 7: And not only is it the best bet on the board,
• 23:54
  Speaker 7: I think it's like a twenty or thirty percent edge,
• 23:55
  Speaker 7: it's a massive edge. You will never find that edge
• 23:58
  Speaker 7: that big during the season. When you're talking about where
• 24:01
  Speaker 7: in general you could find the best edges or where
• 24:04
  Speaker 7: in general there's the most value I think it's actually
• 24:06
  Speaker 7: the milestone props I put out. Was on an episode
• 24:10
  Speaker 7: a couple weeks ago here on the Favorites, we talked
• 24:11
  Speaker 7: about player props team props. I pointed out that as
• 24:15
  Speaker 7: opposed to taking the player to lead his category and
• 24:18
  Speaker 7: home runs or player to lead his category in picture wins,
• 24:22
  Speaker 7: finding the sixteen plus pitcher wins or thirty plus home
• 24:25
  Speaker 7: run projections, and again you can find all that in
• 24:27
  Speaker 7: my content with projections on them. But those bets offered
• 24:31
  Speaker 7: much bigger edges relative to the leader props or relative
• 24:34
  Speaker 7: to any other type of player props, just because I
• 24:36
  Speaker 7: think it's more difficult for people to project out the
• 24:38
  Speaker 7: limits on those are a little bit lower, and also
• 24:41
  Speaker 7: the range of outcomes could be a little bit wider
• 24:43
  Speaker 7: on these players. So if you're not being very diligent
• 24:46
  Speaker 7: in terms of projecting them out, I think you can
• 24:48
  Speaker 7: over or under project their ability to hit those certain milestones.
• 24:51
  Speaker 7: But in general, aside from these specific divisional or make
• 24:55
  Speaker 7: the playoff futures, where I thought there were huge edges
• 24:57
  Speaker 7: in the team market, it's the player milestones and the
• 25:00
  Speaker 7: you know players, pick a player or two you like
• 25:02
  Speaker 7: this year, bet them thirty plus home runs forty plus
• 25:05
  Speaker 7: home runs. If it's a steals guy, bet them forty steals,
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: fifty steals. Kind of ladder them up to where you
• 25:11
  Speaker 7: think they may eventually get. And if you think there's
• 25:13
  Speaker 7: value on one, I can almost assure you there's value
• 25:16
  Speaker 7: on the ladder.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: I want to piggyback off of your World Baseball Classic
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: comment and the Red Sox. I'm looking at Roman Anthony
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: after the World Baseball Classic and maybe some of his
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: milestones or maybe like a long shot at MVP. Do
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: you see any value in that? I know Bryce Harper
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: won won at twenty three. I think by the time
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: those awards come around Roman anthe will probably be twenty one.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: Is there any value in getting ahead on anything Roman Anthony?
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: Just because I feel like locally up here in Boston,
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: he's obviously the hero, but nationally he's not getting the
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: recognition in comparison to the other names. After the World
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: Baseball Classic.
• 25:47
  Speaker 7: Yeah, he hits the ball as hard as anybody. If
• 25:49
  Speaker 7: you look at his stackass page, I think the highest
• 25:51
  Speaker 7: hard hit rate in baseball this season, and if you
• 25:53
  Speaker 7: compare the guys who hit the ball the hardest, it's
• 25:55
  Speaker 7: all the top pitters in the league.
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: It's Aeron Judge, it's you know, Wan.
• 25:59
  Speaker 7: Soto, it's it's the players you'd expect are all near
• 26:01
  Speaker 7: the top of the leaderboard. Anthony only had three hundred
• 26:03
  Speaker 7: plate appearances as a rookie because he ended up getting hurt.
• 26:06
  Speaker 7: If you actually just look solely at projections, the projections
• 26:09
  Speaker 7: would say there's value on his home run under this season.
• 26:12
  Speaker 7: I do not agree with that and cannot agree with that,
• 26:15
  Speaker 7: even though the mass says that, and my mask says that,
• 26:17
  Speaker 7: just because I know how hard this dude hits the ball,
• 26:20
  Speaker 7: and really it's a matter of just changing the swing
• 26:21
  Speaker 7: path in the swing angle and being able to lift
• 26:24
  Speaker 7: more balls out. So it's tough to say that he's
• 26:27
  Speaker 7: potentially an MVP candidate right now. I think he's maybe
• 26:29
  Speaker 7: a year or two away from winning an MVP. He
• 26:32
  Speaker 7: may get some down ballot MVP votes this year. It
• 26:36
  Speaker 7: could be potentially the milestone props though in the thirty
• 26:39
  Speaker 7: plus forty plus for him, because the projections say, well,
• 26:42
  Speaker 7: the projections say under on him. If he ends up
• 26:45
  Speaker 7: going over that bar, it's probably going to be way
• 26:48
  Speaker 7: over that bar, because it's going to be the result
• 26:50
  Speaker 7: of a swing path change and him lifting more balls
• 26:53
  Speaker 7: in the air.
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: We know how hard he can hit the ball.
• 26:55
  Speaker 7: We know that he has all the skills to square
• 26:57
  Speaker 7: the ball up what I was talking about before learning
• 27:00
  Speaker 7: swing decisions. He already seems like he's one of the
• 27:02
  Speaker 7: best at that, and that's why he's such a highly
• 27:04
  Speaker 7: ranked prospect, because he's swinging good pitches for him to drive.
• 27:07
  Speaker 7: So yeah, I would say it's probably the milestone props
• 27:10
  Speaker 7: for Anthony, and specifically the thirty plus forty plus angles
• 27:13
  Speaker 7: if he has, if he has a good enough season
• 27:15
  Speaker 7: to go over twenty, I think there's a good chance
• 27:17
  Speaker 7: he's getting close to thirty.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: I like that Roman, Anthony. Look, his star is only
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: getting brighter. And let's stay in the division. This is
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: a perhaps the best division in baseball.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Would you agree with that? Just in general?
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: San Ales?
• 27:32
  Speaker 7: Absolutely, We've never had four teams from one division make
• 27:36
  Speaker 7: the playoffs together in the three team wildcard era. Every
• 27:40
  Speaker 7: projection system essentially projects the Yankees, Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox.
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: All to go over five hundred. But also they're all
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: minus money to make the playoffs.
• 27:48
  Speaker 7: So yeah, our our old friend Anthony Deobundo picked four
• 27:51
  Speaker 7: alas teams to make the playoffs. I have a very
• 27:53
  Speaker 7: tough time picking four teams for the division to make
• 27:56
  Speaker 7: They're going to beat up on more than favored to
• 27:58
  Speaker 7: make it.
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: It has to be the best division of baseball.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so you have. I'm an Orioles fan.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: I love the addition of Pete Alonzo as good a one,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: two three as you'll find in baseball. With Gunner and
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Adleie Rutchman and Pete Alonzo in the lineup, the rotation
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: always has its question marks. With the Orioles, you have
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Roman Anthony and the Red Sox double down on pitching
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: as well. The Blue Jays were busy in the offseason,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees or the Yankees, and then we always
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: forget to mention the Rays. But yet they're perhaps the
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: best run organization dollar for dollar in Major League Baseball.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: So how do you see this shaking out the pecking order?
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: If teams you think getting four in the playoffs is
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: that's asking a lot. But how do you see it
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: shaking out in terms of which teams you're higher on
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: than market, which teams you're lower on than market?
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah, only had two bets here in terms of team props.
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: It was or team bets.
• 28:53
  Speaker 7: It's the Yankees under ninety two and a half in
• 28:55
  Speaker 7: the Rays over seventy six and a half. The Yankees
• 28:57
  Speaker 7: is gone. It's down to ninety and a half. The
• 28:59
  Speaker 7: Rays over would remain a bet because I have them
• 29:02
  Speaker 7: closer to eighty wins eighty one wins. The public projection
• 29:05
  Speaker 7: market generally also has them going over as well, they
• 29:08
  Speaker 7: have them near seventy nine. I know it's a very
• 29:10
  Speaker 7: tough and deep and difficult division, as we just alluded to,
• 29:14
  Speaker 7: but the Rays are also going back to Tropicana Field,
• 29:16
  Speaker 7: where they've spent the majority of their time as a
• 29:19
  Speaker 7: Major League club, and we have data going back to
• 29:22
  Speaker 7: two thousand and five on the trop the Rays have
• 29:24
  Speaker 7: been the most profitable home underdog in our database. They're
• 29:27
  Speaker 7: often underrated at the trop They build their team to
• 29:30
  Speaker 7: play low scoring pitching games there, and I think in general,
• 29:33
  Speaker 7: playing at Stan Brederfield last year, where we saw a
• 29:36
  Speaker 7: lot more offense, ended up hurting them. Not only was
• 29:38
  Speaker 7: it a reduced home field in general, the Yankees are
• 29:41
  Speaker 7: used to playing in those dimensions, but there were just
• 29:43
  Speaker 7: a lot of goofy games with you know, those short
• 29:45
  Speaker 7: porch home runs going out to right field tipping over
• 29:47
  Speaker 7: the wall that ended up swinging out comes. The wind
• 29:50
  Speaker 7: bulling in or blowing out was drastically effected games. So
• 29:53
  Speaker 7: I think going back to the trop is going to
• 29:55
  Speaker 7: be a massive lift for the Raised chances, especially in
• 29:57
  Speaker 7: home games. But I do think in general, because everybody
• 30:00
  Speaker 7: is so high in the other four teams in this division,
• 30:02
  Speaker 7: they have forgot about Tampa Bay and for that reason,
• 30:04
  Speaker 7: there's a lot of value on Tampa Bay in the
• 30:06
  Speaker 7: futures market. My favorite way to bet them, and I
• 30:09
  Speaker 7: love that win tot over. As I said at seventy
• 30:10
  Speaker 7: six and a half, my favorite way to bet them
• 30:13
  Speaker 7: is Kevin Cash to win Manager of the Year. This
• 30:15
  Speaker 7: is a team who's plus three hundred to make the playoffs,
• 30:17
  Speaker 7: just plus three hundred, and their manager to win Manager
• 30:21
  Speaker 7: of the Year in the toughest division in baseball is
• 30:24
  Speaker 7: north of.
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: Twenty to one.
• 30:25
  Speaker 7: Why are the odds five six, seven times higher than
• 30:28
  Speaker 7: their odds to make the playoffs? If the Rays make
• 30:30
  Speaker 7: the playoffs, Kevin Cash is top two in Manager of
• 30:32
  Speaker 7: the Year voting easily, So I always think there's a
• 30:35
  Speaker 7: better way to bet something. I would much rather bet
• 30:38
  Speaker 7: Kevin Cash to win Manager of the Year at twenty
• 30:40
  Speaker 7: to one fifteen to one, then I would bet the
• 30:43
  Speaker 7: race to make the playoffs at three to one. I
• 30:45
  Speaker 7: think that's a tremendous bet. You could do the same
• 30:47
  Speaker 7: thing with the Pittsburgh Pirates as well. Their odds for
• 30:49
  Speaker 7: Don Kelly to win Manager of the Year are substantially
• 30:52
  Speaker 7: better than their odds to make the playoffs. The Marlins two.
• 30:55
  Speaker 7: Their odds for Clayton mccolly, I believe to win Manager
• 30:58
  Speaker 7: of the Year substantially better than the odds to make
• 31:00
  Speaker 7: the playoffs.
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: So there's always a better way to what be's something.
• 31:03
  Speaker 7: I think that manager angle for Tampa is really good,
• 31:05
  Speaker 7: but I like the wind Towle little over too.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: What's scaring you off about the Yankees? Because a lot
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: of people are really high on them. I know that
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: they're getting Garrett coleback. Do you think that he's just
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: not going to be able to step back into that
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: ace role? Ass that the Aaron Judge is a massive choker.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: What's what's scaring you off about the Yankees?
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Probably Judge.
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: The shaded Judge is appropriate. Just standing there.
• 31:28
  Speaker 7: In the WBC final is an image that will be
• 31:31
  Speaker 7: his legacy for now unless he ends up winning gold
• 31:33
  Speaker 7: medal in the Olympics, So yeah, killed his legacy briefly.
• 31:37
  Speaker 7: You know, the Yankees do have a lot of upside.
• 31:39
  Speaker 7: Ryan Weathers at the back end of their rotation. Uh,
• 31:41
  Speaker 7: there's a number of pitching prospects that they have that
• 31:44
  Speaker 7: they could bring up. We saw Louis Heel when the
• 31:46
  Speaker 7: rookie of the year. He's not even projected to be
• 31:48
  Speaker 7: in their opening their rotation. So Schlitzler, you know, Slitler
• 31:50
  Speaker 7: was great in the playoff last year. There's a lot
• 31:52
  Speaker 7: of upside on this roster, a lot of upside. But
• 31:56
  Speaker 7: I do think all of the win total projections just
• 31:58
  Speaker 7: have them closer to eighty nine and again, and I
• 32:00
  Speaker 7: think the compression of this division the top to the
• 32:02
  Speaker 7: bottom is a little bit closer than what people think
• 32:05
  Speaker 7: it is. You know, the Yankees, the Orioles, and the
• 32:10
  Speaker 7: Red Sox are all kind of projected in a similar
• 32:12
  Speaker 7: range last year. Yankees just a little bit ahead of them.
• 32:15
  Speaker 7: I think you look at the win total projections this
• 32:17
  Speaker 7: year and everybody who was beneath them is just a
• 32:20
  Speaker 7: little bit closer. So it is tougher for them to
• 32:23
  Speaker 7: clear that ninety bar if the other three alias teams
• 32:27
  Speaker 7: behind them are going to be pushing closer to eighty
• 32:29
  Speaker 7: five wins, and then the Rays as well pushing closer
• 32:32
  Speaker 7: to a five hundred team. So I think it's just
• 32:33
  Speaker 7: the difficulty of the vision and having to play each
• 32:36
  Speaker 7: of those teams thirteen times makes it really hard for
• 32:39
  Speaker 7: any of them to get higher.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: Than ninety ones.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: Okay, you're not giving the blue Jays any love, and
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: I'm all over the blue.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Jays this season.
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: What's with the Blue Jay hate? It's not hate.
• 32:48
  Speaker 7: In fact, I think the Blue Jays are maybe the
• 32:50
  Speaker 7: likeliest team to add pieces in season, potentially even likelier
• 32:53
  Speaker 7: than the Yankees. They just missed out on essentially all
• 32:56
  Speaker 7: of their offseason targets aside from Dylan Cees, Trey is
• 33:00
  Speaker 7: on the IL to start the season. He was phenomenal
• 33:03
  Speaker 7: in the playoffs last year. I do think vladd is
• 33:06
  Speaker 7: going to have an MVP caliber season. Vladd made some
• 33:08
  Speaker 7: swing changes with their hitting staff near the end of
• 33:11
  Speaker 7: the year. I think that's why you saw him take
• 33:12
  Speaker 7: off in the playoffs and then have such a great
• 33:14
  Speaker 7: World Baseball Classic as well. So I do think Vladd
• 33:16
  Speaker 7: is kind of back to his peak form that you
• 33:18
  Speaker 7: saw when he had that forty plus home run season
• 33:21
  Speaker 7: earlier in his career. But largely, this is a team
• 33:23
  Speaker 7: built on depth, and this is a team built to
• 33:26
  Speaker 7: win in the regular season and then if they're able
• 33:28
  Speaker 7: to make the playoffs, which they should because they have
• 33:29
  Speaker 7: a very high floor, they will be competitive. But they
• 33:32
  Speaker 7: may not have the most talented playoff roster top to bottom.
• 33:35
  Speaker 7: So I do think this is a more of a
• 33:36
  Speaker 7: regular season team. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, but I do
• 33:42
  Speaker 7: think they are a very competent and well built club
• 33:46
  Speaker 7: and it's very likely that they'd make the playoffs. It's
• 33:48
  Speaker 7: just the question of what they add in season. Because
• 33:50
  Speaker 7: they really wanted to get Kyle Tucker in addition to
• 33:53
  Speaker 7: Dylan Ceas they only ended up getting seased, So I
• 33:56
  Speaker 7: think they're going to be looking for one more bad
• 33:58
  Speaker 7: particularly and outfield, there is that Jesus Sanchez Nathan Lucas
• 34:02
  Speaker 7: combo that they're running out in the left field.
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: I think you can upgrade.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: So I'm by the way, I'm feverishly taking notes over here.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: We'll have many bets placed by the time we wrap
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: up this podcast. So love in the info from Sean Zarillo.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: One team that I've been looking at is the I'm
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: not sure what city they're in. Athletics. They were fifty
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: three and forty six in their last ninety nine games
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: last year. They had a twenty A one and twenty
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: run at one point in the season, and they still
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: won seventy six games last year.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: I kind of like the talent on this team.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Where are they playing, where are they still in Sacramento
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: And would we be wise to look at a win
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: total over for the Athletics as a team that might
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: be a lot better than people expect.
• 34:49
  Speaker 7: Yeah, these Sacramento Athletics, they are still there this year.
• 34:53
  Speaker 7: The biggest you know, on our Payoff Pitch pod, every
• 34:57
  Speaker 7: single time we mentioned Oakland and I'm gonna mention it
• 35:00
  Speaker 7: by name specifically because I'm referencing it. We do have
• 35:02
  Speaker 7: to give out fun facts about the city of Sacramento.
• 35:05
  Speaker 7: It's our self impost punishment every time it's it's the
• 35:09
  Speaker 7: city of Trees there. I believe it's where the Pony
• 35:12
  Speaker 7: Express was also founded. So I've become a lot more
• 35:15
  Speaker 7: aware of the city of Sacramento in general. They're playing
• 35:18
  Speaker 7: in West Sacramento specifically too. They like to highlight that part,
• 35:21
  Speaker 7: but I think the biggest takeaway from the a Is
• 35:22
  Speaker 7: last year was apparently, and Sacramento is very hot during
• 35:26
  Speaker 7: the summer, it was expect that park was expected to
• 35:28
  Speaker 7: play like Course Field at the height of summer. Apparently,
• 35:32
  Speaker 7: it was a relatively temperate or moderate heat summer last year,
• 35:36
  Speaker 7: so we didn't even see the park play to its
• 35:38
  Speaker 7: full potential. I think this year, assuming we get back
• 35:41
  Speaker 7: to full temperatures or expected temperatures, you're going to see
• 35:44
  Speaker 7: even more runs in that park this year, a park
• 35:46
  Speaker 7: which already played about twenty percent over the Major League gaverage.
• 35:49
  Speaker 7: So a lot of runs for the A's, but they're
• 35:51
  Speaker 7: also going to give up a lot of runs. I
• 35:53
  Speaker 7: think their offense is great. I think their pitching is
• 35:55
  Speaker 7: potentially terrible. We did see them develop some guys for
• 35:59
  Speaker 7: their pitching staff came up and looked pretty solid. But
• 36:03
  Speaker 7: getting them to eighty one wins, getting them over five hundred,
• 36:05
  Speaker 7: I think is going to be difficult. Even in a
• 36:07
  Speaker 7: vision that I don't like a lot of teams in.
• 36:10
  Speaker 7: I make them about seventy three wins. The public projection
• 36:12
  Speaker 7: market has them right on the nose with their total
• 36:14
  Speaker 7: at seventy six, so it's a pass for me. I
• 36:17
  Speaker 7: think you're going to bet a lot of overs with
• 36:18
  Speaker 7: this team, though.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: So another team that was bad but a whole lot
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: worse last year. The Colorado Rockies lost one hundred and
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: nineteen games. Last year, they finished a meager fifty games
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: out of first place in the West. Is it possible
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: that they might actually get worse this year or do
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: you have to look over for them because of the
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: rarity of losing that many games.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Their win total over.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: On DK fifty four and a half as it stands
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 36:48
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think in the second half they ended up
• 36:50
  Speaker 7: playing closer to that fifty five win pace, So they
• 36:53
  Speaker 7: did play you know, what their expectations are this year,
• 36:56
  Speaker 7: They did play to that expectation of the second half
• 36:59
  Speaker 7: last year. I'm by far the lowest in the market
• 37:01
  Speaker 7: on the Rockies. I put them at fifty two wins
• 37:03
  Speaker 7: fifty two point one. The average public projection has them
• 37:07
  Speaker 7: at sixty two. Again, I'm at fifty two. The average
• 37:09
  Speaker 7: public direction is at sixty two, and everybody is higher
• 37:14
  Speaker 7: on the Rockies than they're fifty five win total. I
• 37:17
  Speaker 7: bet it's small, but at fifty one and a half,
• 37:19
  Speaker 7: at fifty five or whereever it is, currently I can't
• 37:22
  Speaker 7: bet the over, but the public projection market would absolutely
• 37:25
  Speaker 7: say to still bet the over on this team. I
• 37:27
  Speaker 7: think there's different approaches you could take, though, rather than
• 37:30
  Speaker 7: just betting the Rockies over. At this point, I still
• 37:31
  Speaker 7: think San Diego is under is a better bet, and
• 37:34
  Speaker 7: it's relatively correlated to Colorado's over as well, because you
• 37:39
  Speaker 7: need the Rockies to probably steal some of those games
• 37:41
  Speaker 7: in order to go over that total, and you need
• 37:43
  Speaker 7: them to probably steal some games and for the Podres
• 37:46
  Speaker 7: to go under. So there's different approaches you could take.
• 37:49
  Speaker 7: You know, a lot of these bets are correlated. For example,
• 37:52
  Speaker 7: if we went to the nl East, I have an
• 37:54
  Speaker 7: opinion on every NLA and every nleaset team, but largely
• 37:58
  Speaker 7: those opinions are all correlated to one or other, So
• 38:00
  Speaker 7: it's very important. I think that's another good note not
• 38:03
  Speaker 7: to overallocate within one specific division, because all of those
• 38:07
  Speaker 7: bets are going to kind of need one another to
• 38:09
  Speaker 7: hit in order to hit with each other.
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: I'm going to trigger everyone by bringing up the Dodgers.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Come on, I am Dodgers.
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: I personally don't think that they're well, I don't think
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: that they're ruining baseball. But that's the question I want
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: to ask right now World Series future. I don't think
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: that their odds are going to get any better if
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: you like them. But in this current moment, would you
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: take the Dodgers or would you take the field?
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: And why I.
• 38:35
  Speaker 7: Would take the field because the field includes Seattle. I
• 38:38
  Speaker 7: also think the Mets or the Brewers could be good
• 38:40
  Speaker 7: enough to potentially take on the Dodgers leave, they could
• 38:44
  Speaker 7: be good enough to come take on the Dodgers come
• 38:46
  Speaker 7: playoff time. You know, to your point about the dodds
• 38:48
  Speaker 7: maybe ruining baseball, it actually does play in to how
• 38:52
  Speaker 7: this year play might play out. So we do have
• 38:55
  Speaker 7: Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, they signed Edwin Diaz, right, they
• 38:57
  Speaker 7: had the best team, They signed the two best free agents.
• 39:00
  Speaker 7: You could make an argument that that's not good for
• 39:02
  Speaker 7: the game. That said, it is good for the players.
• 39:04
  Speaker 7: The players are getting the most money they're able to.
• 39:06
  Speaker 7: We should root for the players to make bank and
• 39:09
  Speaker 7: maximize their value. But as a result of this, we
• 39:12
  Speaker 7: may lock out next year. But as the result of
• 39:15
  Speaker 7: the fact that we may lock out next year, you
• 39:17
  Speaker 7: may see teams be a little bit more aggressive this
• 39:20
  Speaker 7: year in terms of going for it, or in terms
• 39:23
  Speaker 7: of selling, or in terms of bringing prospects up, that
• 39:26
  Speaker 7: may be a year away. So, for example, the Brewers
• 39:29
  Speaker 7: have a nineteen year old kid named Jesus made who
• 39:32
  Speaker 7: is one of the top prospects, if not the top
• 39:34
  Speaker 7: prospect in the minor leagues. We saw Jan Soto come
• 39:37
  Speaker 7: up at nineteen. This kid, by all the noise he's made,
• 39:40
  Speaker 7: has indicated that he may be ready this year. Well,
• 39:44
  Speaker 7: if we're locking out in twenty twenty seven and you're
• 39:47
  Speaker 7: not going to get that your service time for your
• 39:49
  Speaker 7: prospects anyway, and this kid is maybe ready to be
• 39:52
  Speaker 7: your major league shortstop by September, do you bring up
• 39:55
  Speaker 7: a nineteen twenty year old to play shortstop in the
• 39:58
  Speaker 7: playoffs this year? I think if it's going to happen,
• 40:00
  Speaker 7: it's going to be this year. And I think as
• 40:01
  Speaker 7: a result, there is value in going against the Dodgers,
• 40:04
  Speaker 7: because everybody may be going for it if the next
• 40:07
  Speaker 7: baseball is not happening for two years. In particularly, I
• 40:10
  Speaker 7: think Seattle is the team worth betting on at about
• 40:13
  Speaker 7: twelve to one or thirteen to one. So I am
• 40:15
  Speaker 7: against the Dodgers specifically, if you want to bet though,
• 40:18
  Speaker 7: in the NL West Giants to finish in second place.
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: I think the.
• 40:21
  Speaker 7: Dodgers are a huge favorite to win the NL West,
• 40:24
  Speaker 7: and I make them like minus seven hundred. Other public
• 40:27
  Speaker 7: projections have them at like minus three thousand. You know,
• 40:29
  Speaker 7: they make them like an edge at minus six hundred
• 40:31
  Speaker 7: to make the playoffs. So as a result, betting the
• 40:34
  Speaker 7: Giants to finish in second place, I think it's around
• 40:36
  Speaker 7: three to one is my favorite way to bet this division.
• 40:39
  Speaker 7: You're essentially just locking in the Dodgers in first place
• 40:42
  Speaker 7: and I'm against the Podres, so that leaves San Francisco
• 40:46
  Speaker 7: as the second place bet. So I take the field
• 40:48
  Speaker 7: to your Dodgers recommendation, but I would also think the
• 40:50
  Speaker 7: Giants to finish in second place behind them.
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: If you need an NL West bet.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: In particular, my follow up would be, there isn't really
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: such thing as like a dynasty in baseball, but you can.
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: Are the Dodgers a dynasty in baseball?
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: Absolutely?
• 41:03
  Speaker 7: I don't even remember when the last time they lost
• 41:05
  Speaker 7: the NLS, aside from when the Giants and them both
• 41:08
  Speaker 7: had one hundred plus wins and the Giants just had
• 41:11
  Speaker 7: more than them that year, They've they've either won the
• 41:13
  Speaker 7: division or had one hundred wins every year for the
• 41:15
  Speaker 7: past ten years. So and they've won two world titles
• 41:17
  Speaker 7: I believe in that time, three world titles in that time.
• 41:20
  Speaker 7: It's it's tough to count the COVID title as a
• 41:22
  Speaker 7: full title, so like two and a half titles in
• 41:24
  Speaker 7: that time.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 41:25
  Speaker 7: No, this is absolutely a dynasty. I mean, if you're
• 41:29
  Speaker 7: a threat to cancel the sport because you're too good,
• 41:31
  Speaker 7: I think you've already become a dynasty.
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: If they win this.
• 41:34
  Speaker 7: Year and make it three straight, they start to go
• 41:36
  Speaker 7: from dynasty to all time lists.
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: Have they ruined the sport if that's the case, No, I.
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: Don't think so. I don't think so.
• 41:42
  Speaker 7: I think I think the teams, the Pirates owners ruined
• 41:45
  Speaker 7: the sport. You know the fact that people are talking
• 41:48
  Speaker 7: about the Pirates and should they trade Paul Skins, Well,
• 41:51
  Speaker 7: they should fire their They the owner should be kicked out.
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: Of the sport before Paul Skins gets traded. Like, what
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: are we doing?
• 41:57
  Speaker 7: Why are we making this argument? The Daughters are doing
• 41:59
  Speaker 7: nothing wrong there playing the game. It's the other teams
• 42:01
  Speaker 7: that are not playing the game, the other ownership groups
• 42:03
  Speaker 7: that are not playing the game.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: With them.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, amen to that, and it's very on brand for baseball,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: a sport that I love. But boy, do they know
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: how to shoot themselves in the foot when they gain
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the most popularity.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: Yes, it is so frustrating.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: It feels like this sport, to Kendri's point earlier, has
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: worked itself back into a conversation of right behind the NFL.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Whether it is or it's not, it's there is a
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: conversation to be had there and they go, oh, you
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: know what, you know what will really help that? What
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: if we stop playing games and get into a labor dispute?
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: People love that shit.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Anyway, Let's talk about one of the other divisions I've
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: got my eye on, and I think there could be
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: some value here. The AL Central is one of the
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: least competitive divisions in baseball. We all love the Tigers.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: This year, Fangrafts has the Tigers is the only team
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: in the division projected to have a winning record. I
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: really like this Royals team. You're talking about some of
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: their young stars, so there could be a potential over
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: for them.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: The Twins might be undervalued here.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: Where do you see the AL Central value within the
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Central Division?
• 43:08
  Speaker 7: I think the Tigers could end up being the one
• 43:09
  Speaker 7: seed in the American League. I think the Tigers and
• 43:11
  Speaker 7: the Mariners will be the top two seeds in the
• 43:14
  Speaker 7: American League. This is another team. To the point I
• 43:17
  Speaker 7: was just talking about with Kendra about teams being aggressive
• 43:20
  Speaker 7: in terms of prospect promotion, Kevin McGonagall, I would be
• 43:23
  Speaker 7: surprised at this point if he's not on the opening
• 43:25
  Speaker 7: day roster for the Tigers. He's the number one prospect
• 43:27
  Speaker 7: in baseball. To the other points I was talking about
• 43:30
  Speaker 7: about swing decisions, that is his best skill. This is
• 43:32
  Speaker 7: not a guy who's gonna come up and go thirty
• 43:34
  Speaker 7: thirty like Bobby Wick.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: He doesn't have.
• 43:36
  Speaker 7: Insane power, insane speed, insane athleticism combo.
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: His best skill is swinging at strikes.
• 43:42
  Speaker 7: And not swinging at balls, and also playing short stop,
• 43:45
  Speaker 7: and when he connects with the ball or when he
• 43:47
  Speaker 7: wants to put bat on the ball, he can do
• 43:48
  Speaker 7: it like They're not the.
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: Most esthetically pleasing skills.
• 43:53
  Speaker 7: He's not gonna hit thirty five home runs and steal
• 43:55
  Speaker 7: thirty bases, but he will constantly give you good at
• 43:58
  Speaker 7: bats and probably hit close.
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: To three hundred with a high on base percentage and
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: hit a ton.
• 44:03
  Speaker 7: Of doubles, so he's probably going to be on the
• 44:06
  Speaker 7: opening day roster for the Tigers. I think if he's not,
• 44:09
  Speaker 7: it's going to be due to service time and he'll
• 44:10
  Speaker 7: be up in two weeks. But they have another guy
• 44:13
  Speaker 7: named Max Clark, who you might have seen messing up
• 44:15
  Speaker 7: grotesquely in spring while wearing like ten chain necklaces around
• 44:19
  Speaker 7: his neck and sunglasses and having a camera crew on
• 44:22
  Speaker 7: him at all times, because the dude is like a
• 44:24
  Speaker 7: social media star in addition to trying to be a
• 44:27
  Speaker 7: first round pick major League baseball player. But the Tigers
• 44:31
  Speaker 7: seem like they are going for it, and I think
• 44:34
  Speaker 7: you don't normally see a team like this add a
• 44:36
  Speaker 7: ton of talent in season. I think they will be
• 44:38
  Speaker 7: willing to cash in prospects to put themselves in position
• 44:41
  Speaker 7: to be a better team. Seattle's kind of already done
• 44:44
  Speaker 7: those things. They've already gone out and cashed in prospects
• 44:46
  Speaker 7: for pieces who they want to have at the start
• 44:48
  Speaker 7: of the year, and I think their team is almost complete,
• 44:50
  Speaker 7: Like I would be happy if that team went into
• 44:51
  Speaker 7: the playoffs with the roster they have right now. The
• 44:54
  Speaker 7: Tigers do have a few spots where you look like
• 44:56
  Speaker 7: you get an upgrade, and I think they will ultimately
• 44:58
  Speaker 7: fill in those holes, especially if they're going to be
• 45:00
  Speaker 7: on top of the division. I bet this team to
• 45:01
  Speaker 7: win the division last year. Obviously they ended up collapsing it.
• 45:04
  Speaker 7: It's one of the worst futures losses they've ever had.
• 45:07
  Speaker 7: I am all over them again this year, and I
• 45:09
  Speaker 7: think I bet them at like plus one sixty five,
• 45:11
  Speaker 7: and now we're close to even money or minus money,
• 45:13
  Speaker 7: to the point where I don't even project value on
• 45:15
  Speaker 7: them anymore. The public projections say they're still value on
• 45:18
  Speaker 7: this team to win the division. I just don't at
• 45:20
  Speaker 7: this point. So I think you can still bet them
• 45:22
  Speaker 7: to win the division, just most of the value has
• 45:24
  Speaker 7: been sucked out of it. The Royals Brandon I do
• 45:27
  Speaker 7: like as a potential playoff team. The problem with them
• 45:30
  Speaker 7: is roster depth. If they get anybody hurt, they don't
• 45:33
  Speaker 7: have the prospects or the guys on their forty men
• 45:36
  Speaker 7: to necessarily replace them. So I do think there's a
• 45:38
  Speaker 7: ton of talent there. They're just going to need to
• 45:40
  Speaker 7: stay healthy. But I do make them a playoff edge.
• 45:43
  Speaker 7: I think I bet them to make the playoffs just
• 45:46
  Speaker 7: before the season started and then the third team you
• 45:48
  Speaker 7: mentioned is Minnesota. They're an interesting case because they have
• 45:52
  Speaker 7: an ownership battle going on or they ended up they
• 45:54
  Speaker 7: were going to sell the team. They ended up selling
• 45:57
  Speaker 7: shares of the team to a minority ownership group. It
• 46:00
  Speaker 7: doesn't seem like they're going to invest in their roster
• 46:02
  Speaker 7: at all. Even the minor league free agents and stuff
• 46:05
  Speaker 7: that they tried to sign in the offseason, none of
• 46:07
  Speaker 7: them ended up making the roster, and they cut all
• 46:09
  Speaker 7: those guys, so they made no improvements to their roster.
• 46:13
  Speaker 7: Buckston was able to stay healthy last year for the
• 46:14
  Speaker 7: first time in forever. There's a lot of injury risk
• 46:16
  Speaker 7: on this roster too. Pablo Lopez got hurt. Joe Ryan
• 46:19
  Speaker 7: is probably going to get traded at some point. The
• 46:22
  Speaker 7: point is, the average public projection has this team at
• 46:25
  Speaker 7: seventy seven and a half wins. Their win total is
• 46:27
  Speaker 7: seventy two point five, so everybody says go over. The
• 46:30
  Speaker 7: problem is, even though right now this is a seventy
• 46:33
  Speaker 7: seven to seventy eight win team, in July, it's probably
• 46:35
  Speaker 7: not going to be. This was the most active team
• 46:37
  Speaker 7: at the trade deadline last year. They'll probably be one of,
• 46:40
  Speaker 7: if not the most active teams in terms of selling
• 46:42
  Speaker 7: off pieces this year. So you're looking at a team
• 46:45
  Speaker 7: that right now maybe a seventy eight win team and
• 46:47
  Speaker 7: right now in the betting market, especially for opening Day
• 46:49
  Speaker 7: woand up getting there. But right now in the betting
• 46:51
  Speaker 7: market in terms of a game by game basis, they
• 46:53
  Speaker 7: may be undervalued. But from a season long perspective, I
• 46:57
  Speaker 7: think the public projections are pointing in the wrong direction
• 47:00
  Speaker 7: just because they're not able to accurately capture how much
• 47:04
  Speaker 7: this team will sell in seasons.
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: So be careful.
• 47:07
  Speaker 7: You know, we talked about averaging out the public projections,
• 47:10
  Speaker 7: using that to help before because that's his opinion. You
• 47:12
  Speaker 7: do have to weigh that against news and things that
• 47:16
  Speaker 7: are going on in the real world, and the news
• 47:18
  Speaker 7: is all pointing downward for the Twins, So do not
• 47:21
  Speaker 7: trust the public projection there. I make them seventy point six,
• 47:25
  Speaker 7: and I actually bet the under for that team.
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: Okay, final question from me, not a betting question, but
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: I've been fighting with baseball fans since my show on
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: Sunday where I said the Red Sox should come out
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: with the cool food stuff that all the other teams
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: have been coming out with. Yesterday, they announced that they
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: were coming out with some stuff, but it caused such
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: an uproar with our callers and on social media about
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: how people like me are ruining the baseball experience because
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: real baseball fans want to go to the game and
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: they're content with their shitty hot dog. What are your
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: thoughts on all of these crazy MLB team food combinations
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: and stuff that are coming out to drive people.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: To the park.
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: Because I think it's incredible. I think it's awesome. I
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: think it's helping grow the game and get people to
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: the park. But real baseball people are saying that I'm
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: a loser and I'm ruining the game. What are your
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: thoughts on all of these crazy concoctions?
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: So you're not a loser. I love all the good
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: food stuff.
• 48:16
  Speaker 7: I mean, I'm a Mets fan, so city Field I
• 48:18
  Speaker 7: feel like kind of started this trend a little bit.
• 48:21
  Speaker 7: I will tell you though, Kender, the first time I
• 48:22
  Speaker 7: ever went to Fenway Park, my dad bought tickets for us.
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: It was probably like seventeen or eighteen.
• 48:26
  Speaker 7: We went to the Baseball Fame went up to Fenway
• 48:28
  Speaker 7: amazing Birthday weekend. But our seats, our first seats that
• 48:32
  Speaker 7: we try to sit in like kind of off center
• 48:34
  Speaker 7: behind on plate. We go to fold down the seats,
• 48:36
  Speaker 7: the seat doesn't fold all the way down. It gets
• 48:38
  Speaker 7: stuck on the seat in front of it. So when
• 48:41
  Speaker 7: you're talking about like people saying Baseball's Fenway Park doesn't
• 48:45
  Speaker 7: even have seats that work, and most of the seats
• 48:47
  Speaker 7: are facing like right field or left field, would you
• 48:49
  Speaker 7: rather have a seat facing towards home plate in the
• 48:51
  Speaker 7: picture Sox.
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: Fans are going to cancel you, I assume where it's
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: a baseball tradition.
• 48:56
  Speaker 7: No, I think I think the food and any way
• 48:59
  Speaker 7: you could get people into sitting coming to the ballpark.
• 49:01
  Speaker 7: Anyway you could get people interested in not just watching
• 49:03
  Speaker 7: the game on TV, getting out of the house, getting
• 49:05
  Speaker 7: in the sun for today, but also you know, moving
• 49:07
  Speaker 7: around the park, trying some good food, seeing all the
• 49:09
  Speaker 7: history that's on the walls. Because I have no problem
• 49:12
  Speaker 7: with people getting up during a game and checking out,
• 49:14
  Speaker 7: like all of the war inside of the ballparks one
• 49:16
  Speaker 7: of the best experiences I've ever had. And we'll move
• 49:18
  Speaker 7: on to Brandon's question in a second, but I do
• 49:20
  Speaker 7: want to share this story. I went to Minnesota for
• 49:22
  Speaker 7: a wedding. My wife and I went to a Twins game.
• 49:24
  Speaker 7: We walked around the stadium before the game. There's a
• 49:26
  Speaker 7: bar on the top floor. I hope she's still there.
• 49:28
  Speaker 7: If you go to a Twins game this year, please
• 49:30
  Speaker 7: try to visit her. Her name is Sue Nelson. She
• 49:32
  Speaker 7: was the organist in the stadium. We met Sue. She
• 49:36
  Speaker 7: plays her organ in a bar at the top of
• 49:38
  Speaker 7: the stadium. Introduced ourselves, told her how cool she was.
• 49:41
  Speaker 7: We were just watching it for a bit. She goes
• 49:43
  Speaker 7: hold on, tells the bartender she's taking a break, and
• 49:45
  Speaker 7: this woman in her eighties takes me and my wife
• 49:48
  Speaker 7: and walks us all the way around the stadium, takes
• 49:51
  Speaker 7: us into every special access place you can go. But
• 49:53
  Speaker 7: more importantly, she's showing us the history of Minnesota town
• 49:57
  Speaker 7: Ball and all of the history of baseball and it's
• 50:00
  Speaker 7: actions to Minnesota and.
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: All of the history.
• 50:03
  Speaker 7: And I'm going to find memorability that they have in
• 50:06
  Speaker 7: the stadium. So my point is there's so much history
• 50:09
  Speaker 7: and memorabilia and cool things to look at in a
• 50:11
  Speaker 7: stadium that what is the issue with people getting up
• 50:15
  Speaker 7: to get food and walk around and look at that
• 50:17
  Speaker 7: stuff while they're doing it, walk around the ball park
• 50:19
  Speaker 7: toward the ballpark. That's my only issu shoot the pitchclock
• 50:21
  Speaker 7: is they will removed thirty minutes from every game to
• 50:24
  Speaker 7: do that stuff and enjoy yourselves in the building.
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: So not a loser take whatsoever.
• 50:28
  Speaker 7: I think anything you can do to get people in
• 50:30
  Speaker 7: the ballpark is a good sign.
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: Let me get my mobster poutine in peace.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Being first of all, being upset about a creative hot dog.
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: People want, didn't you kill me, dude.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: Lobster French fries? Whatever?
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: Wild take be that upset about a doughnut on top
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: of a milkshake.
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: Literally, we're telling me to go back to Jacksonville and
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: shut up because I wasn't a real sports fan and
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: that I should go home and enjoy my pool in
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: my stadium and shut up.
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: Well, wow, Franks are just a hot talk they really are.
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: Thank you.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: And then, by the way, after that whole story, that
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: moving story about the old lady at the Twins ballpark,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: let me remind you.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: So, what's her name again?
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: Nelson?
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Sue Nelson.
• 51:26
  Speaker 7: Sue Nelson used to play the organ for the Minnesota
• 51:29
  Speaker 7: north Stars when they were still in their old building.
• 51:31
  Speaker 7: That's how long she's been around the Minnesota sports scene.
• 51:33
  Speaker 7: Absolute legend. If you go to a Twins game this year,
• 51:35
  Speaker 7: go find her one of the coolest people I've ever
• 51:37
  Speaker 7: met in the stadium.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: And how does Sean say thank you? He bet the
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Twins under come on, Sean average move. All right, it's
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: time to get to our plant the Flag segment, presented
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. We are going to plant our flag
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: on a baseball team.
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: Up, I'm trying to plant my flag here. You're really
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: planning your flag in that day.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: We'll start with our guests, Sean Zarillo, your favorite team
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: bet of the Year, presented by DK.
• 52:09
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm gonna give out two because I talked about
• 52:11
  Speaker 7: it five times that the Mariner's Division is the best
• 52:13
  Speaker 7: bet on the board. My favorite win total over we
• 52:15
  Speaker 7: didn't get to them, the Marlins over seventy two and
• 52:17
  Speaker 7: a half.
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: You could take that up to seventy five.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: Kendra, I think I'm gonna switch gears here and I'm going.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: To go with Nelson.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: No, I'm gonna go.
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: Yes, I'm gonna go with my boy Paul Skians to
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: make the postseason plus two twenty five on DraftKings.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Now, that would be fun.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: We all need that, all right, Pirates into the postseason.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: You've got Sean on the Mariners Division. Marlin's over seventy
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: two and a half wins. I'm gonna take Seawn's advice here.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: He says that we should we should shade ourselves towards
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: the under.
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do that.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Astros under eighty six and a
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: half wins. I think this number is too close to
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the ceiling for a team that is trending down. They
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: missed the playoffs last year. They have Hunter Brown, he's great.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Behind that, it's a giant question mark. They lost fran Barveldez.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Jeremy Painea's status. It looks like he might be available
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: for opening Day, but that's up in the air loaded
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: division and partially correlated to Shawn's love for the Seattle
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: Mariners as well. So I'll go under eighty six and
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: a half wins for the Houston Astros. So I get
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: a rubber stamp of approval because I'm going to bet
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: this the second we end this podcast.
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: If I get to.
• 53:28
  Speaker 7: Undred percent, that's my favorite win total under. Right now,
• 53:30
  Speaker 7: I just I gave the favorite win total over out.
• 53:32
  Speaker 7: But if I was picking one under it's the astros.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: Phenomenal that'll do it.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: For today's episode special thanks to our producers David Payne
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: and Gifford Gold, Stats Hoound Evan Abrams, and our wonderful
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: guest from the Payoff Pitch podcast, shan Zaillo. The Favorites
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: will return on Thursday afternoon, and we might even be
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: able to dig Stucky out of March Madness Mayhem. You
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: can find it right here on the Action Network YouTube
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: page or wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Our Show Today,
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: presented by Draft King, the Crown is yours happy baseball season.
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 54:20
  Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler