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The Favorites - Sweet 16 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. I'm live
0:18
Speaker 1: from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as
0:22
Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, Mike cam Padre
0:26
Speaker 1: my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter.
0:29
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Chad.
0:31
Speaker 3: How are we doing?
0:32
Speaker 2: Brother? We're back in the.
0:34
Speaker 1: Swing four days of college basketball. You and I have
0:41
Speaker 1: an incredibly special guest coming on the show. He is
0:45
Speaker 1: the og Action. He is the heartbeat of the Action Network.
0:55
Speaker 1: The first person I ever had dinner with before we
1:00
Speaker 1: even started the company. I had dinner with this guy.
1:05
Speaker 1: He's going to be joining us in Chicago this weekend
1:09
Speaker 1: for our live show, the most Obsessive College Basketball Better.
1:15
Speaker 1: I've ever met a man who has so loved college
1:18
Speaker 1: basketball for so long that his one name, Moniker, is
1:25
Speaker 1: derived from his then favorite college basketball player. The co
1:31
Speaker 1: host of our Big Bets on Campus podcast, The Hat
1:35
Speaker 1: says it all. A man who needs only one name.
1:40
Speaker 1: Welcome back, Stucky.
1:46
Speaker 3: Going on, Cheb. Thanks for the intro. I'm excited to
1:50
Speaker 3: get back to some basketball action after this couple day lull,
1:53
Speaker 3: but I'm also very very excited for Chicago on Saturday.
2:00
Speaker 3: I love it. It's your bottom dollar. You have some
2:08
Speaker 3: longtime Action followers and followers of myself that I'm friendly
2:12
Speaker 3: with that I'm going to see, and then I'm most
2:14
Speaker 3: excited besides seeing you guys, of course, which is always nice,
2:18
Speaker 3: but I'm most excited to meet new followers and meet
2:24
Speaker 3: new subscribers and listeners to the podcast. Always have such
2:29
Speaker 3: a good time at these events, and in the past
2:32
Speaker 3: we've done them, you know, in Vegas and in the
2:35
Speaker 3: New York City area, where we also have uh, pretty
2:39
Speaker 3: loyal followers, but we've never done anything in Chicago, and
2:45
Speaker 3: I I love Chicago and the people from there, so
2:48
Speaker 3: I'm just so excited to meet some of the people
2:51
Speaker 3: that I haven't had a chance to in in the past.
2:54
Speaker 1: H Stucky, my Dad's going to be there, and oh really, yeah,
2:59
Speaker 1: well I'm from Chicago. I don't know who else from
3:03
Speaker 1: my family will show up. Remains to be seen. I've
3:07
Speaker 1: gotten non committals from a few people, but I know
3:12
Speaker 1: I know that my dad will be there. And for
3:14
Speaker 1: those people who aren't aware at this point of what
3:18
Speaker 1: Stucky is talking about, another reminder that everybody can officially
3:23
Speaker 1: RSVP for our free Favorites live show event in Chicago.
3:28
Speaker 1: This will be for the Elite eight March Madness Games Sunday,
3:31
Speaker 1: March twenty ninth. Sorry, Saturday, March twenty ninth. That Joson
3:35
Speaker 1: Weed great great spot. Every time I've told someone we're
3:39
Speaker 1: doing an event at Joson Weed who's from Chicago and
3:42
Speaker 1: doesn't live there anymore, they're like, oh man, I love
3:44
Speaker 1: Joson Weed. Free event, free drinks, free live show was
3:47
Speaker 1: Stucky three man Weave Simon myself Matt Mitchell has an entire.
3:53
Speaker 2: SUV full of swag to give away.
3:56
Speaker 1: Just RSVP to reserve your spot by clicking the link
4:00
Speaker 1: in this episode's description, or you can just Google.
4:03
Speaker 2: Favorites Live Event Chicago. Be sure to RSVP.
4:07
Speaker 1: Must RSVP to get in, but then you get in,
4:09
Speaker 1: you get free drinks, free event, free chatting with the crew,
4:13
Speaker 1: plus a mini live show where Stock is gonna regale
4:16
Speaker 1: us with stories and ideas on what to do with
4:19
Speaker 1: Elite eight. As a reminder of this favorite podcast is
4:22
Speaker 1: presented by BET three sixty five, which is now live
4:25
Speaker 1: in my native state of Illinois.
4:28
Speaker 2: New BET three sixty five.
4:29
Speaker 1: Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred and fifty
4:33
Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
4:35
Speaker 1: up using promo code favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a
4:38
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4:40
Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
4:43
Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
4:45
Speaker 2: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
4:47
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois, must be twenty
4:52
Speaker 1: one or older in president Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
4:56
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or
4:59
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
5:03
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
5:06
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. I will say these events are always amazing.
5:11
Speaker 1: Whether we've done them outside New York, Vegas, Philly in
5:13
Speaker 1: the winter, they're great. I hope a lot of people
5:16
Speaker 1: are able to make it and hang out with us.
5:18
Speaker 2: All right.
5:19
Speaker 3: One thing I want to say, though, is tiny at
5:21
Speaker 3: these events, Like people that you guys that know me,
5:25
Speaker 3: know that I will try to talk to as many
5:27
Speaker 3: people as I can, and I can well talk to
5:29
Speaker 3: anyone about anything at any time. But if you see
5:33
Speaker 3: me and you've been a follower, or you just want
5:36
Speaker 3: to ask questions or anything, please don't hesitate to come
5:40
Speaker 3: up to me or anyone. You will never bother me.
5:44
Speaker 3: So whether you want to tell me your story, ask
5:47
Speaker 3: a question, or just share your thoughts or talk some ball,
5:51
Speaker 3: don't hesitate to come up to me. I'm the easiest
5:54
Speaker 3: person to approach.
5:55
Speaker 1: What is this are you, Timothy shallow May? We're at
5:58
Speaker 1: an event for our company. Were the whole Some people
6:02
Speaker 1: tell me like they were.
6:03
Speaker 3: I'm telling you people don't tweets from people like, oh,
6:07
Speaker 3: you look like you were busy. I didn't want to
6:10
Speaker 3: live up to you. And this is like after I
6:12
Speaker 3: leave the city, right, It's like I kind of wanted
6:14
Speaker 3: to go up to you, but you were talking to
6:15
Speaker 3: someone else. It's like, no, just not bother bother away.
6:18
Speaker 1: Father, Stucky, don't come up to me. I'm a little
6:21
Speaker 1: bit more refined and precious. I'm not as interested in
6:24
Speaker 1: talking to people, but definitely talk to Stucky. You can
6:27
Speaker 1: talk to my dad, you can talk to Simon Uh,
6:31
Speaker 1: definitely stuck.
6:32
Speaker 2: You'll be there for the duration. Just talk to Stucky.
6:35
Speaker 2: This is a Stucky moment.
6:37
Speaker 1: Speaking of Stucky, right, I'm enamored of the Maryland game.
6:43
Speaker 1: I thought the the the Yukon Florida game was outstanding.
6:47
Speaker 1: I actually loved the Duke game even though it was
6:49
Speaker 1: a blowout, because I just love watching Duke.
6:52
Speaker 2: I think they're so good and I want to see excellence.
6:55
Speaker 1: So many criticisms of this tournament right now, What have
6:59
Speaker 1: you learned from this tournament?
7:00
Speaker 2: What are your biggest takeaways so far?
7:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm learning a lot just in
7:07
Speaker 3: college basketball in general the past couple of years, college
7:11
Speaker 3: football too, Like even this past year, like I've I've
7:14
Speaker 3: started to redoing everything that I've ever done in college basketball.
7:18
Speaker 3: College basketball is always my best sport. I kind of
7:21
Speaker 3: just was coasting for a while doing what I have
7:24
Speaker 3: always done. And it's a new world. And you know
7:28
Speaker 3: now with college football it's also a new world. I
7:31
Speaker 3: spend so much time. I used to never spend any
7:33
Speaker 3: time in college football. Just used to before action. I
7:36
Speaker 3: used to just lose money be in college football. I
7:38
Speaker 3: loved it, played football. It would just donate because in
7:41
Speaker 3: the summer, I would spend all my time preparing for
7:45
Speaker 3: college basketball. There's so many teams, it's so much work,
7:48
Speaker 3: and then you know October November, so I was just donating.
7:50
Speaker 3: I was spending my time doing football, NFL and college basketball. Well,
7:55
Speaker 3: now with college football, I spend so much time there.
7:58
Speaker 3: I'm already behind in college basketball. It's harder, the market's
8:00
Speaker 3: more efficient, and it's just this new world. Like you
8:03
Speaker 3: have teams that hit completely hit the reset button. In
8:08
Speaker 3: the past, it was and there's a lot of similarities
8:09
Speaker 3: of college football too. In the past. It's like we
8:11
Speaker 3: got they're replacing these two starters right, a lot easier
8:15
Speaker 3: to project from a year to year basis on what
8:17
Speaker 3: a team is going to be. Now it's completely different.
8:20
Speaker 3: The portal, it's crazy. We already have over one thousand.
8:25
Speaker 3: We have a thousand, more than a thousand players already
8:27
Speaker 3: in the portal. But I think what we're starting to
8:29
Speaker 3: see is just the separation from the top and the
8:34
Speaker 3: bottom is growing. And I think that's going to happen
8:36
Speaker 3: in college football as well. I do think that there's
8:40
Speaker 3: gonna eventually be more parody at the top. So like
8:43
Speaker 3: your top twenty and this is true in college football
8:46
Speaker 3: as well. You're going to have more stronger teams in
8:50
Speaker 3: that mix. But the gap between the top and the
8:53
Speaker 3: bottom is just going to continue to grow. And we've
8:56
Speaker 3: seen this the past two years whereund just might be
9:01
Speaker 3: chalkier moving forward. I do think it's eventually, you know,
9:05
Speaker 3: over time, there's going to be exceptions that the tournament
9:07
Speaker 3: will be better from the second and third weekends as
9:10
Speaker 3: a result. But I mean, we have four leagues that's
9:15
Speaker 3: it represented this year. That's the fewest ever, and we
9:19
Speaker 3: only have one from the ACC which is Duke. So
9:22
Speaker 3: I do think that this is still small Sampit size.
9:25
Speaker 3: This is still a new world. But I do think
9:28
Speaker 3: that this what we've seen so far as a microcosm
9:31
Speaker 3: of what we can expect to see in the college
9:35
Speaker 3: sports landscape moving forward and just have to adjust and
9:40
Speaker 3: get used to it. But I think it's just a
9:41
Speaker 3: growing gap.
9:43
Speaker 4: And everyone's about what have you done lately?
9:45
Speaker 3: Right?
9:45
Speaker 4: We just had sixteen seeds lose not even two three
9:48
Speaker 4: years ago, So it's just funny how quickly before like
9:50
Speaker 4: it's so boring. Now it's like it's just year to year, right,
9:53
Speaker 4: But I do think it's interesting to see what and
9:55
Speaker 4: I always going to do with college sports, And yeah,
9:58
Speaker 4: you online have been trolling these Michigan State fans and
10:01
Speaker 4: Tom Mizzo fans. Is that just you don't trust his
10:04
Speaker 4: team and you're just taking shots to them because it's
10:06
Speaker 4: funny or are you just like I hate bet this team.
10:08
Speaker 4: No matter what, I'm gonna fade them in this upcoming round.
10:11
Speaker 3: No, I just haven't fun with Michigan State fans. There's
10:15
Speaker 3: also what I always forget on Twitter. A lot of
10:18
Speaker 3: times when I'm tweeting about certain teams that I don't like,
10:20
Speaker 3: I'm usually trolling like a couple of friends, like personal friends.
10:24
Speaker 3: But I've always had fun with Michigan State fans, usually
10:26
Speaker 3: in college football. But no, I don't trust I don't
10:32
Speaker 3: think Michigan State has national title upside, mainly because I
10:37
Speaker 3: just don't trust their offense, Like they don't have the
10:39
Speaker 3: perimeter shooting. Their half court offense can get very stagnant. Now,
10:42
Speaker 3: Jayce Richardson, if he's on, he's a freshman. He had
10:45
Speaker 3: a tough game last game, but he stepped up in
10:47
Speaker 3: the final two minutes. If he's on, that really raises
10:50
Speaker 3: their ceiling. They do have a high floor like is
10:54
Speaker 3: it was a great coach. They do play tremendous defense,
10:57
Speaker 3: and they're great on the glass. No, I don't hate
11:01
Speaker 3: any team. I used to hate Duke because my dad
11:04
Speaker 3: liked Duke growing up. That's kind of it dwindled over
11:08
Speaker 3: the years, and I don't This Duke team isn't that hateable,
11:11
Speaker 3: which is kind of disappointing. And I like Shire, which
11:15
Speaker 3: is also disappointing. I wish there was I wish I
11:18
Speaker 3: hated Duke more, but no, I don't. I don't hate
11:20
Speaker 3: any team. So I actually kind of like Michigan State
11:24
Speaker 3: this week against Old miss but I'm you know, it's
11:28
Speaker 3: the Sweet sixteen. You're not going to find a ton
11:30
Speaker 3: of edge or value. I'm mainly looking at matchups at
11:34
Speaker 3: this time of the year to try and find any
11:36
Speaker 3: edge or what to bet. But I do show a
11:39
Speaker 3: little value in Michigan State. The problem is, I don't
11:42
Speaker 3: know if I should bet at pregame because Michigan State's
11:45
Speaker 3: games are they go according almost to a script. Every time.
11:49
Speaker 3: They're like, they'll be down at the half, they'll have
11:51
Speaker 3: a sluggish first half, and one of their biggest strengths
11:55
Speaker 3: is their death and they will wear teams down. We
11:58
Speaker 3: saw it all throughout the conference play. In the second half,
12:02
Speaker 3: they will just overwhelm teams with their depth, their athleticism,
12:06
Speaker 3: their rebounding, and they just go on runs in the
12:09
Speaker 3: second half. So there's a good chance that they come
12:12
Speaker 3: out slow, they're down, and then I think Michigan State's
12:15
Speaker 3: gonna be worth a look from a live betting perspective.
12:18
Speaker 3: That's probably my favorite live betting look of the first round,
12:22
Speaker 3: like it, excuse me, of the tournament so far. And
12:25
Speaker 3: I made the mistake. I bet in New Mexico plus
12:27
Speaker 3: seven and a half on Sunday, and I didn't listen
12:31
Speaker 3: to myself. I didn't have any first half. I didn't
12:33
Speaker 3: bet Michigan State live and it was just one of
12:35
Speaker 3: their games. Again, even go back to the first round
12:37
Speaker 3: against Bryant. I mean, it was close game in the
12:40
Speaker 3: first half and then their depth just overran Briant in
12:44
Speaker 3: the second half. So if I had to bet the
12:47
Speaker 3: game pre game, I would bet Michigan State, but I'm
12:49
Speaker 3: gonna look for a better opportunity live. I don't like
12:53
Speaker 3: Michigan State. Sure could they win it all? Yeah, I
12:54
Speaker 3: mean it's one basketball game throughout I think they're gonna
12:57
Speaker 3: need the They're gonna need the other seed kind of
13:00
Speaker 3: break their way, Like you want to root if you're
13:02
Speaker 3: Michigan Zape and you want to root for Michigan so
13:04
Speaker 3: you don't have to play Auburn. But I think that
13:05
Speaker 3: they're just their ceiling in a half court on offense
13:08
Speaker 3: might limit them compared to a Duke for example, and
13:12
Speaker 3: some of the in f Florida, so that that's where
13:15
Speaker 3: I think it's going to hold them back. But I
13:16
Speaker 3: had a ton of respect for azz Oh. I love
13:18
Speaker 3: Michigan State fans. Part of what when I get to
13:20
Speaker 3: have that interaction people is they have loyal sometimes bordering
13:24
Speaker 3: on psychotic fan basis, which I love in Michigan State
13:27
Speaker 3: fits the build there for sure.
13:29
Speaker 1: I agree with you about Duke. I know Simon has
13:33
Speaker 1: always been a Duke fan. I have found Duke to
13:36
Speaker 1: be so much more likable since the very end of
13:42
Speaker 1: the Coach k era and with the John Shire era.
13:49
Speaker 1: I love him as a coach. I think he's relatable.
13:53
Speaker 1: I love the way he interacts with his players. I
13:56
Speaker 1: like watching this team. I set it off the top.
13:59
Speaker 1: I think this team super fun to watch play basketball
14:03
Speaker 1: because they're so good and they're competitive, and Cooper Flag
14:07
Speaker 1: is just a straight baller. But they got so many
14:10
Speaker 1: other guys who can play at such an elite level.
14:14
Speaker 1: I don't even care that like they have an advantage
14:17
Speaker 1: because they get every single elite recruit looking at their
14:22
Speaker 1: school and they're loaded with nal money. As we look
14:27
Speaker 1: at the weekend Thursday Friday, knowing that a lot of people,
14:32
Speaker 1: you know, the early games are not going to be
14:34
Speaker 1: something they can activate against off of this show. Give
14:38
Speaker 1: me your roundup for Thursday and Friday.
14:43
Speaker 3: Which yeah, I mean quickly on the early games. I
14:45
Speaker 3: do think BYU has a little bit of value. That's
14:48
Speaker 3: that's the number that I show the most value on.
14:51
Speaker 3: Their offense is electric. I mean the total one seventy
14:54
Speaker 3: five and it's on pace to be a high since
14:55
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety five. In the tournament, their offense is electric.
14:58
Speaker 3: Now their defense, Alabama's defense has issues, but so does BYU's.
15:03
Speaker 3: They're just they lack athleticism in certain positions. So what
15:05
Speaker 3: do they do. They pack it in kind, They'll play
15:08
Speaker 3: some zone. They dare you to shoot the three. So
15:10
Speaker 3: it's scary. They're going up against Alabama. Who's gonna who
15:13
Speaker 3: shoots a lot of threes and can get hot. Not
15:16
Speaker 3: as good as the shooting team as they were last year,
15:18
Speaker 3: but they can still go nuclear. They've be shooting thirty
15:19
Speaker 3: eight percent in tever of first So it's a scary
15:21
Speaker 3: one because BYU if Alabama will have days where they
15:24
Speaker 3: just go sixteen to thirty eight, sixteen to thirty five
15:27
Speaker 3: from three, and then YU might not be able to
15:30
Speaker 3: keep up. But you gotta remember these games are in
15:33
Speaker 3: weird venues right well, the Kentucky Tennessee or dou who
15:37
Speaker 3: used to That's that's in Indianapolis in a cut in
15:39
Speaker 3: half football stadium. So are the it's the shooting going
15:43
Speaker 3: to be just a little off. And in that case, BYU, hey,
15:47
Speaker 3: you're encouraging Alabama to fire away from three. That might
15:51
Speaker 3: work in your favor. So I think BYU has some
15:53
Speaker 3: value Maryland as well. A little worry about Maryland's depth.
15:57
Speaker 3: They got to stay out of foul trouble, sure, because
16:00
Speaker 3: I mean, Florida is so deep they can come at
16:02
Speaker 3: you in waves. I don't think Maryland could do some
16:04
Speaker 3: of the things that Yukon did from an offensive perspective,
16:06
Speaker 3: but I do show a little value in that number,
16:09
Speaker 3: although like if they're you play it up and down
16:11
Speaker 3: fast game against Florida and let them get in transition,
16:13
Speaker 3: which meryln will do. Maryland's transition he's really good, but
16:16
Speaker 3: that's gonna be an up tempo game. That's dangerous. One
16:19
Speaker 3: of the things you kind of going for. They do
16:21
Speaker 3: a lot of off ball stuff which can give Florida problems,
16:24
Speaker 3: and they slow the game down to a halt. Maryland's
16:27
Speaker 3: starting five to crab five. They could play with anyone
16:30
Speaker 3: but got and that like the extended TV timeouts this
16:32
Speaker 3: time of year, like they help, but they got to
16:34
Speaker 3: stay out of foul trouble. Usually do a good job
16:36
Speaker 3: in that department, but Blarida's got a ton of size,
16:38
Speaker 3: will come at you in a fast paced game. But yeah,
16:41
Speaker 3: if I had a bet aside in that game as
16:43
Speaker 3: of right now, I would look at Maryland duke Arizona.
16:47
Speaker 3: I just I don't know how Arizona's going to consistently
16:51
Speaker 3: score in that game. The wild Card's Caleb Love If
16:56
Speaker 3: he has games, he's capable of it, and he's done
16:58
Speaker 3: it on the stage and he was tremendous against the Oregon.
17:02
Speaker 3: They need him in the half court and Kenny duplicate
17:06
Speaker 3: what he just did against the elite Duke defense. I
17:09
Speaker 3: don't know, but they're going to need him because what
17:11
Speaker 3: is Arizona want to do. They want to get out
17:13
Speaker 3: in transition and they want to score at the rim.
17:16
Speaker 3: Both are essentially impossible against Duke, who's like fifth percent
17:22
Speaker 3: tile and rim defense allowed, fifth percent tile and transition
17:26
Speaker 3: allowed and then above ninety inefficiency. So you can't score
17:30
Speaker 3: at the riom on Duke, he can't score in transitions's
17:34
Speaker 3: got to score in the half court. They couldn't in
17:37
Speaker 3: the first meeting these teams played. It was a super
17:39
Speaker 3: low scoring game. These teams are, They're both a lot
17:41
Speaker 3: different than they were back in November. But I find
17:44
Speaker 3: it hard prior unless k Love has a really good
17:47
Speaker 3: game here, I find it hard for that Arizona's going
17:49
Speaker 3: to be able to keep up. Duke could also get
17:50
Speaker 3: an elite Brown back, who I think is actually a
17:53
Speaker 3: key piece for Duke's upside, Like, Dude could still win
17:57
Speaker 3: the national title without him, but when they go up
17:59
Speaker 3: against the team you know, some of the other elite
18:01
Speaker 3: teams down the line. Malik Brown gives them so much
18:05
Speaker 3: defensive versatility with his switching and so they might have him,
18:08
Speaker 3: and then it's gonna be even tougher for Arizona. So
18:13
Speaker 3: Duke to me, it feels like Yukon like last year.
18:15
Speaker 3: It's like, I don't bet against them. They're probably going
18:17
Speaker 3: to cover, so I would not bet Arizona. I don't
18:21
Speaker 3: mind the under. It's scary, but Duke, who you know,
18:24
Speaker 3: can put up ninety, but that's probably my favorite under
18:27
Speaker 3: of the first two rounds. And then Arkansas Texas Tech,
18:31
Speaker 3: I have no idea. I have a Texas Tech future.
18:35
Speaker 3: Bet them, they're in the region. On our podcast, we
18:38
Speaker 3: have them to win the final four. I think they're
18:39
Speaker 3: a top five team and fully healthy. But McMillan, who's
18:43
Speaker 3: their best shooter. Their offense with him is absolutely electric.
18:48
Speaker 3: It's almost unstoppable. He's got a no obleaque injury. We
18:51
Speaker 3: don't know if he's gonna play. He didn't play over
18:53
Speaker 3: the in the first weekend. And then you have Arkansas,
18:56
Speaker 3: who they might get one of their best players back
18:58
Speaker 3: and to do thero They just got Boogie Flann back.
19:01
Speaker 3: They've had all these moving pieces all so it's they're
19:05
Speaker 3: very hard to rate right now. They just got two
19:07
Speaker 3: of them. They're gonna get two their better players back
19:09
Speaker 3: from injury. How does it all work together. It's gonna
19:13
Speaker 3: come down in Texas Tech shooting. If Texas Tech is
19:15
Speaker 3: on from three, I don't think Arkansas can match them
19:18
Speaker 3: with their scoring and a half court. But if they're off,
19:20
Speaker 3: that's going to allow Arkansas to get out and transition
19:23
Speaker 3: where they can score with anybody. And that team's just
19:26
Speaker 3: super deep. Now that they have some guys back, they've
19:29
Speaker 3: good good enough depth, they're super athletic, they're super long.
19:33
Speaker 3: If they could turn that game into a brawl, Arkansas
19:35
Speaker 3: is definitely dangerous, and they're they're playing with house money.
19:38
Speaker 3: That's usually a role that Calipari can fulfill. So I
19:43
Speaker 3: have no idea there. It depends on injuries and McMillan's status,
19:47
Speaker 3: but I'll be rooting for Texas Tech.
19:49
Speaker 1: I would say about Texas Tech shooting or anybody shooting
19:53
Speaker 1: a lot of you guys notice this. The mic on
19:56
Speaker 1: these rims is so high pitched. When someone misses a shot,
20:02
Speaker 1: they don't just miss a shot, it sounds like they're
20:06
Speaker 1: breaking the basket like it sounds like these are the
20:08
Speaker 1: worst shooting teams, laying the biggest bricks in the history
20:12
Speaker 1: of college basketball. Because the sound, someone is either going
20:15
Speaker 1: to win an Emmy for this or they're going to
20:18
Speaker 1: have to completely adjust it for next year because it
20:19
Speaker 1: feels like it is the loudest, rim rattling shot in
20:24
Speaker 1: the history of college basketball.
20:26
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, I always say that CBS's broadcasts of college
20:30
Speaker 3: basketball has always been better than ESPN's from a like
20:36
Speaker 3: an audio perspective, And people always say why, And I
20:41
Speaker 3: think it's just their mics like that they capture the crowd,
20:45
Speaker 3: especially in like road true home road games in my
20:47
Speaker 3: conference by and then the rim like they just the
20:51
Speaker 3: ball go with like a swish, sounds better. I don't
20:54
Speaker 3: know what it is, but the CBS one always is.
20:57
Speaker 3: The college basketball broadcast has always sounded better to me
21:00
Speaker 3: just from an audio perspective, like to take the announcers
21:03
Speaker 3: out of it, right, would you agree?
21:05
Speaker 2: Stucky, You're spot on.
21:08
Speaker 1: This is how deep you are into college basketball opinions
21:12
Speaker 1: on the broadcast audio from network to network. That's why
21:17
Speaker 1: we have you on this show, Simon. Before we witness
21:21
Speaker 1: any legendary buzzer beaters, Cinderella stories, or diaper dandies, this
21:26
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22:18
Speaker 1: I do want us to run through the Friday games,
22:21
Speaker 1: two of which I'll probably be sleeping for, but we
22:23
Speaker 1: got four of them, Mississippi and Michigan State, Kentucky Tennessee
22:28
Speaker 1: Michigan State, by the way, as a three and a
22:30
Speaker 1: half point favorite, Kentucky Tennessee is a four and a
22:32
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Auburn is a nine and a half
22:35
Speaker 1: point favorite against Michigan Houston eight point favorite against Purdue.
22:41
Speaker 2: Give me your takes.
22:43
Speaker 3: Yeah already. Whenever All Miss Michigan State, I show a
22:46
Speaker 3: little value Michigan State. I think it's sparty or nothing.
22:47
Speaker 3: But wait, wait to get that live. The difference in
22:52
Speaker 3: that game, I think is going to be rebounding. Ole
22:54
Speaker 3: Miss a very poor rebounding team. Michigan State is elite
22:58
Speaker 3: their top twenty offensive and defensive rebounding now almost does
23:01
Speaker 3: some things that can trouble Michigan State. They're very good
23:04
Speaker 3: transition defense, keep you out of transition. Part of that
23:08
Speaker 3: is why they're not great rebounding. They get back. They
23:12
Speaker 3: also force you to like work in isolation and shoot
23:15
Speaker 3: threes in the half court. Those aren't two really strong
23:20
Speaker 3: areas of Michigan State. It's not a great shooting team.
23:22
Speaker 3: They almost never operate in isolation. So there's some things
23:26
Speaker 3: that could be working in Ole missus favor. But at
23:29
Speaker 3: the end of the day, I think it's the rebounding
23:31
Speaker 3: for Michigan State and then their depth that I think
23:35
Speaker 3: will eventually win that game. But prefer to probably wait
23:38
Speaker 3: to see if Michigan State is down at some point
23:40
Speaker 3: in the first half, which they usually are, or even
23:42
Speaker 3: down at the end of the first half, and look
23:44
Speaker 3: for them live or in the second half. Kentucky Tennessee.
23:48
Speaker 3: The disclosure of the Kentucky fan for my wife.
23:51
Speaker 2: You're based in Lexington. For people who I am.
23:53
Speaker 3: Based in Lexington and we're finally to the second weekend.
23:56
Speaker 2: You're based in Lexington.
23:57
Speaker 1: If anyone ever sees you walking down the street and
24:00
Speaker 1: Fanny years on Twitter, by all means, feel free to
24:02
Speaker 1: say hello, because you were a very proachable celebrity.
24:06
Speaker 3: Most yeah, no one hesitates in Lexington. But the I
24:14
Speaker 3: will say that Kentucky swept the regular season, so they
24:16
Speaker 3: won both meetings against Tennessee. But those are basically due
24:21
Speaker 3: to shooting variants. Kentucky's defense has issues, and you know
24:25
Speaker 3: they struggle defending off ball stuff pick and roll. But
24:29
Speaker 3: what they did in the first two meetings against Tennessee
24:31
Speaker 3: is they said, Tennessee, I dare you to beat us
24:34
Speaker 3: by shooting the ball, and Tennessee just couldn't. They went.
24:38
Speaker 3: Tennessee shot seventeen to sixty four from three in those
24:43
Speaker 3: two meetings and Kentucky was lights out from three, so
24:48
Speaker 3: those games basically were decided by three point variants. You're
24:52
Speaker 3: playing in a half cut off Lucas Oil Stadium. I
24:57
Speaker 3: would assume, given some of Kentucky's defense deficiencies, that that's
25:01
Speaker 3: going to be the plan again, like make Tennessee beat
25:04
Speaker 3: us by being jump shooters. We Kentucky can battle on
25:08
Speaker 3: the defensive glass against Tennessee, who's good on the offensive glass.
25:11
Speaker 3: But I think it's going to be a plan again.
25:12
Speaker 3: And hey, in neutral court, if Tennessee's missing this Kentucky
25:16
Speaker 3: offense can play with anyone. They're playing really well. They've
25:19
Speaker 3: had injuries. They got Lamont Butler back, and when they
25:22
Speaker 3: had a bunch of injuries throughout the year, they were
25:24
Speaker 3: a bunch of other guys were able to step up.
25:26
Speaker 3: And now they're they have more reliable depth and hopes
25:29
Speaker 3: and excellent coach. I just fear that the Tennessee defense
25:34
Speaker 3: is so good and the Tennessee's not going to shoot
25:36
Speaker 3: like it did in the first two meetings. Slightly in
25:39
Speaker 3: to Tennessee. We'll be rooting for Kentucky. Michigan Auburn is
25:44
Speaker 3: an interesting game. This Michigan team, they just find ways
25:48
Speaker 3: to if the game is close in the second half,
25:52
Speaker 3: they're super comfortable there. You have to give Dusty May
25:55
Speaker 3: a ton of credit for what he's done all year.
25:58
Speaker 3: You could say to the close game King, they've won
26:00
Speaker 3: close games all year. But there's something to be said
26:02
Speaker 3: about their execution in these final ten five three two
26:06
Speaker 3: minutes of games, and they I think they've benefited from
26:11
Speaker 3: getting out of the Big Ten. They play a very
26:13
Speaker 3: unique style. They have two seven footers that are run,
26:16
Speaker 3: pick and roll and the big you know, the Big Ten.
26:19
Speaker 3: They kind of got used to that, right and there's
26:20
Speaker 3: a lot of bigs in the Big Ten, but you
26:22
Speaker 3: saw that and it's you became familiar with it, and
26:24
Speaker 3: the teams adjusted. But it's such a unique scheme that
26:26
Speaker 3: I think they've benefited from getting out of conference play.
26:32
Speaker 3: With that said, Auburn is as well positioned as anybody
26:37
Speaker 3: to vend their two bigs with Brooman Caldwell, and if
26:42
Speaker 3: they neutralize each other, it's sort of like Creighton Auburn.
26:47
Speaker 3: Just the perimeter is just such an advantage for Auburn
26:50
Speaker 3: that I think eventually that's what will overwhelm Michigan. There.
26:54
Speaker 3: Michigan's gonna have to get help from the role players,
26:56
Speaker 3: which they haven't really gotten consistently. They did against Texas
26:59
Speaker 3: A and M right Gale somehow went knots LJKSM was
27:02
Speaker 3: big if they can carry that over and Auburn is
27:07
Speaker 3: just a little lack the days of goal again, because
27:09
Speaker 3: I here's the thing with Auburn, they haven't been great
27:12
Speaker 3: for the past three weeks, but they also were probably coasting.
27:17
Speaker 3: Now there were talks of like there's locker room issues.
27:19
Speaker 3: So I don't really know because they were already locked
27:22
Speaker 3: into the one seed, the number one overall seed, but
27:25
Speaker 3: they definitely looked like they weren't all the way engaged
27:28
Speaker 3: even in the first round, even in the first half
27:30
Speaker 3: against Crayton. Now Crave went nine of fourteen from three
27:34
Speaker 3: in the first half against them. Part of that was
27:36
Speaker 3: just their perimeter dem was pretty lax. They look like
27:39
Speaker 3: they locked in in the second half. Will they be
27:41
Speaker 3: locked in from the jump here? I don't know. It's
27:44
Speaker 3: hard for me to gauge. I'm kind of close to
27:45
Speaker 3: the number here, but I do think Auburn will advance.
27:49
Speaker 3: But you don't want to play with fire against this
27:51
Speaker 3: Michigan team and being a close game late because they'll
27:54
Speaker 3: steal it. They've shown they can do that all year.
27:57
Speaker 3: And then lastly, you're perdue of Houston's uglyest game of
28:02
Speaker 3: the tournament, as you could probably guess by the total
28:06
Speaker 3: of one thirty two and a half, and it will
28:08
Speaker 3: be played in that half cutoff football stadium. It's in
28:12
Speaker 3: uh It's in Indy though, so the one seed has
28:17
Speaker 3: a bit of a disadvantage there taking on Purdue in Indianapolis.
28:22
Speaker 3: It's gonna be tough for Purdue here. Purdue is good.
28:24
Speaker 3: They're gonna overwhelm Bradsmith, who's one of the best point
28:26
Speaker 3: guards in college basketball. They're gonna overwhelm TKR. It's a
28:30
Speaker 3: great big TKR. He's gonna need to be a facilitator.
28:34
Speaker 3: He's gonna have to make some plays on the short role.
28:36
Speaker 3: But this Houston d is incredible. They're long. Can the
28:40
Speaker 3: Purdue role players step up because they're gonna be at
28:42
Speaker 3: an overall athletic disadvantage, a talent disadvantage, and the Purdue
28:46
Speaker 3: defense has issues defending at the rim. What Painter has
28:49
Speaker 3: done is he's packed it in and he said, I
28:51
Speaker 3: dare teams to beat beat as shooting and No one's
28:54
Speaker 3: been able to do that in the tournament so far,
28:55
Speaker 3: but they've played a couple of mid majors. Houston doesn't
28:58
Speaker 3: love the shoot threes. They like to shoot mid majors
29:00
Speaker 3: play volleyball on the offensive class, but they're the number
29:03
Speaker 3: one three point shooting team in the country by percentage.
29:05
Speaker 3: If they make a couple, I think this Perdue defense
29:08
Speaker 3: is a house of cards and it all falls apart.
29:11
Speaker 3: But Purdue is going to try to grind this game
29:12
Speaker 3: down to a halt. That's all Houston wants to do.
29:15
Speaker 3: So this is so like, do I really want to
29:17
Speaker 3: lay eight in a game that could be like fifty
29:20
Speaker 3: five fifty with two to go? Probably not, But I
29:25
Speaker 3: would lean Houston eventually unpacking that Purdue defense. Who they're
29:30
Speaker 3: three hundred and fiftieth in the country in rim defense.
29:34
Speaker 3: If you can just make some shots and unpack them,
29:36
Speaker 3: you can score at the rim. They can get off
29:38
Speaker 3: its the rebounds and score. So eventually Houston I think
29:42
Speaker 3: will overwhelm Perdue unless the Purdue role players just have
29:46
Speaker 3: a really really good game, and I don't think that
29:48
Speaker 3: they're that trustworthy. And I don't hate the under there either,
29:52
Speaker 3: even though it is a super low number. Purdue is
29:55
Speaker 3: going to try to grind that game down, and that's
29:56
Speaker 3: all Houston does anyway, so that one should be a grinder.
30:00
Speaker 4: Now, I got to ask a bias question before we
30:02
Speaker 4: let's stuck get out of here, Chad, I gotta know
30:04
Speaker 4: you're locked in this season. To me, I've watched really
30:07
Speaker 4: Duke all season. They've just to me, been the best
30:09
Speaker 4: team of every week. This seem like they get better.
30:12
Speaker 4: Like all the guys' weaknesses to start the year, at
30:14
Speaker 4: this point of the year, a lot of them have
30:15
Speaker 4: been addressed. A really complete team at this point. Who
30:18
Speaker 4: is your model or where guys you're talking to are saying,
30:21
Speaker 4: this is the one team that can stop them in
30:23
Speaker 4: this tournament. This is the best team left matchup wise
30:25
Speaker 4: against this Duke team, Because right now across the board,
30:28
Speaker 4: it feels like, you know, people are talking about Florida
30:30
Speaker 4: and stuff like that, but you saw in that Connecticut
30:32
Speaker 4: game Florida got tight, and it's like, I'm interested in
30:34
Speaker 4: your perspective, but what team left will give Duke their
30:37
Speaker 4: biggest issues?
30:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean from a I mean Florida and Auburn
30:43
Speaker 3: are right there, but I think from a from a
30:47
Speaker 3: matchup perspective, I think the two teams they're both on
30:51
Speaker 3: Duke's side that just stylistically could cause issues are Houston
31:00
Speaker 3: and Tennessee. And the reason for that both play super slow,
31:06
Speaker 3: both have elite defenses. They're going to limit the possessions, right,
31:09
Speaker 3: So Duke is so good, you don't want to get
31:11
Speaker 3: into a game where you're playing up and down against
31:15
Speaker 3: them where their talent will probably eventually win out. So
31:20
Speaker 3: I think the best way to beat this Duke team
31:23
Speaker 3: is you want to limit the number of possessions playing.
31:26
Speaker 3: So that's Houston Houston's three sixtieth and adjusted tempo and
31:32
Speaker 3: Tennessee's three hundred and forty sixth. And you have to
31:36
Speaker 3: be a team that can make threes. You gotta trade
31:38
Speaker 3: threes for twos at times against Duke. I already mentioned
31:43
Speaker 3: Houston number one in the country in three point percentage.
31:47
Speaker 3: Tennessee is capable. They're not an elite shooting team, but
31:49
Speaker 3: they have some capable shooters. So I think those are
31:52
Speaker 3: the two teams. Just stylistically, it's like, hey, let's just
31:55
Speaker 3: slow this game down because Duke's not fast either, and
31:58
Speaker 3: just lower possession game physicality at certain positions might be
32:03
Speaker 3: something that can give Duke issues, and that's what Tennessee
32:06
Speaker 3: and Houston have. We saw that against Clemson. I that's
32:08
Speaker 3: the last time that Duke has lost since December. So
32:14
Speaker 3: I think those are the two teams because of how
32:16
Speaker 3: they play, because of their defenses, and then because of
32:18
Speaker 3: their ability to hit some outside shots that they might
32:22
Speaker 3: give Duke the most interesting game, even though it's gonna
32:27
Speaker 3: be tough to score on Duke's defense. No matter what,
32:30
Speaker 3: those are the two most intriguing matchups to me. Now,
32:33
Speaker 3: the way that it's going to play out is one
32:34
Speaker 3: of those teams is gonna get knocked out. If they
32:37
Speaker 3: both win, they'll play each other, but that could be
32:40
Speaker 3: a really intriguing final four matchup.
32:43
Speaker 1: I love that we are ending this Duke heavy because, look,
32:50
Speaker 1: I love the team. To me, they're the most exciting team.
32:54
Speaker 1: I have the same feeling stuck that you do. There's
32:57
Speaker 1: something you kind of ask about the way they're playing
33:00
Speaker 1: and dominating that you just sort of you lose in
33:03
Speaker 1: the noise of the tournament, like if you're not really
33:06
Speaker 1: paying attention, all of a sudden it becomes clear who
33:10
Speaker 1: the best team is. And I think they're sort of
33:13
Speaker 1: separating a little bit before we get out of here,
33:16
Speaker 1: We're going to bring in Evan Abrams, director of Research,
33:20
Speaker 1: because he's actually dug up something fun on the Duke
33:24
Speaker 1: Blue Devils.
33:26
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, what do you got.
33:28
Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.
33:32
Speaker 5: We're finished talking and just to talk about the market
33:34
Speaker 5: for a second check because you guys have been talking
33:36
Speaker 5: about it all eight games. You've either seen the team
33:39
Speaker 5: who's favored get more of a favorite or stay still.
33:42
Speaker 5: So everyone after the first two we rounds of the
33:46
Speaker 5: tournament kind of just going on chalk here.
33:48
Speaker 3: But let's keep with Duke.
33:50
Speaker 5: So people have been kind of saying that they're an
33:52
Speaker 5: inevitable champion at this point. I mean Florida has, you know,
33:55
Speaker 5: zero to two against the spread, Like there's different cracks
33:57
Speaker 5: and other teams, so I kind of dug this, which
34:00
Speaker 5: is kind of interesting. So obviously, recently Duke has been
34:03
Speaker 5: playing fantastic. They're scored one point five points per possession
34:07
Speaker 5: in around a thirty two versus Baylor, which is the
34:09
Speaker 5: highest points per possession for any team in the tournament
34:11
Speaker 5: since twenty sixteen. Now through two games, Duke has a
34:15
Speaker 5: point margin of plus sixty seven that is tied for
34:18
Speaker 5: the seventh highest since nineteen eighty five, when you know
34:21
Speaker 5: the tournament expanded. So of those seven teams with Duke
34:24
Speaker 5: on that list, all seven made the Elite eight. So
34:27
Speaker 5: they all advanced through this weekend. Five made the Final four,
34:31
Speaker 5: two made the title game, and actually none won at all.
34:33
Speaker 5: And I found that kind of and I found that interesting,
34:36
Speaker 5: so I looked one step further. So honestly, Duke has
34:39
Speaker 5: been winning by a lot. So Duke has won twenty
34:41
Speaker 5: one games this year by twenty plus points, second most
34:45
Speaker 5: by a D one team since two thousand. The only
34:47
Speaker 5: team with Moore twenty sixteen to seventeen Gonzaga, who had
34:50
Speaker 5: twenty three. Now, the only Duke team that's ever had
34:53
Speaker 5: more was the ninety eight ninety nine Duke team with
34:55
Speaker 5: twenty four. Now that becomes interesting when I give you
34:57
Speaker 5: this other stat. So during the regular season, Duke has
35:00
Speaker 5: also been incredibly dominant twenty eight and three straight up,
35:03
Speaker 5: outscoring their opponents by six hundred and eighty five points,
35:06
Speaker 5: which is tenth most all time. So of those other
35:09
Speaker 5: nine teams above Duke on that regular season list, nine
35:13
Speaker 5: made the Elite eight. All nine six made the final
35:16
Speaker 5: four five made the title game and actually two to
35:20
Speaker 5: one at all nineteen sixty eight UCLA, nineteen seventy two UCLA.
35:25
Speaker 5: Here's the best part of those two lists. I gave
35:28
Speaker 5: you the list of the regular season and the list
35:31
Speaker 5: the first two rounds of the tournament. Only one other
35:33
Speaker 5: team is on that on both lists with Duke. That
35:36
Speaker 5: is nineteen eight, nineteen ninety eight, nineteen ninety nine Duke,
35:39
Speaker 5: so twenty five Duke, ninety nine Duke.
35:41
Speaker 3: Only two teams on those same lists.
35:43
Speaker 5: Obviously, that ninety nine Duke team went to the title game,
35:46
Speaker 5: played Yukon and ended up losing. So I think the
35:48
Speaker 5: question of inevitable for Duke, especially when looking just at
35:52
Speaker 5: history right like you're looking at metrics, ken Pom and
35:55
Speaker 5: on these other areas. Duke's pretty much one of the
35:57
Speaker 5: best teams we've ever seen, but his story when you're
36:00
Speaker 5: this good still kind of a crapshoot. I mean, you
36:03
Speaker 5: might get there, but they don't always win.
36:06
Speaker 3: But the best team on Kempom is that ninety nine
36:09
Speaker 3: Duke team by far. Yeah, yeah, shatter than this year's team.
36:12
Speaker 3: And yeah they lost to Yukon, is like ten point
36:14
Speaker 3: I think they're ten point Favorites and the title. But
36:17
Speaker 3: so it all comes full circle to Yukon Chadam back
36:19
Speaker 3: to your point with Cooper Flag healthy for a full game,
36:23
Speaker 3: they've covered ten straight. Even though everyone knows they're this good,
36:26
Speaker 3: that's just that's the same vibes.
36:28
Speaker 1: Which is why we're going to bet on futures for
36:31
Speaker 1: the remaining of the tournament on Tennessee or Houston, based
36:34
Speaker 1: on Stuck saying those are the teams they can knack off.
36:37
Speaker 1: Duke Stuck, thanks for coming on the show, buddy. We're
36:39
Speaker 1: excited to see you on Saturday. We're excited to be
36:42
Speaker 1: able to have full access to you. I am not
36:46
Speaker 1: going to stand in the way of anybody who's trying
36:48
Speaker 1: to talk to Stucky, so much is standing the way
36:51
Speaker 1: to me though, I don't like that, looking.
36:52
Speaker 3: Forward to it. Futures. By the way, if I were
36:54
Speaker 3: to bet one now, he'll be Texas Tech, just because
36:56
Speaker 3: the upside if they get healthy and they're on the
36:59
Speaker 3: other side of the brack.
37:00
Speaker 1: From Duke all right, Texas Tech as a reminder of
37:03
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by BET three sixty five
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37:33
Speaker 1: or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana,
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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
37:44
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
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Speaker 1: Time and I will return with our next episode of
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Speaker 1: The Favorites on the Action Network You two page Tuesday,
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Speaker 1: one thirty pm Eastern with very special guests, my former
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Speaker 1: colleague at ESPN.
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Speaker 2: Chris the Bear Felika on Fox.
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Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
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Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
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Speaker 2: help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
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Speaker 2: hundred gambler