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2024 St. Louis Cardinals Season Preview! · Kenny Wallace Media

0:00
What's up everybody? I am Charlie Marlowe.
0:02
That is the great Brendan Schaefer.
0:05
This is low hanging fruit. We took a week off for spring
0:08
break, but we're back. It's the week of baseball season
0:12
officially starting. Brendan, how you doing buddy?
0:15
Oh, I'm doing good. I got nautical for spring break.
0:18
I mean, just went totally crazy like the college kids do.
0:23
No, I didn't know it was spring break.
0:24
I just thought you were being lazy.
0:26
Oh no. For my kids though.
0:28
I mean, it's not for me anymore. Look, if my kids are not in
0:32
school, then I can't do anything, basically.
0:35
All right? I can't do anything.
0:36
Even this podcast. Nothing gets done.
0:39
All right, let's get right to it.
0:41
We got about 3035 minutes hardcore here for this episode.
0:45
We're going to call it our our season preview.
0:47
Now, first of all, as we're recording, it's 927 Central
0:52
time. Dylan Carlson, We should get
0:55
some news here shortly. Brendan, I think it's fair to
0:58
say he's he's probably not going to be there opening day.
1:02
Is that, is that fair to say? That's my read anyway and like
1:06
hopefully it's nothing super severe that keeps him out for
1:09
months and months, but I would be surprised if what is it he he
1:13
had the injury on a Monday and then three days later on a
1:15
Thursday it's fine. Like it's a shoulder something.
1:18
We don't really know the severity as we're recording now.
1:20
Hopefully the update comes here soon, but it doesn't seem like
1:24
he's going to be ready for the Opening Day roster.
1:25
If I just had to speculate, right?
1:27
Based on what we saw, what we heard, you know, it didn't look
1:31
great. It probably could have been
1:32
worse. Honestly, anytime you have an
1:34
outfield collision, it can be pretty dangerous, especially
1:37
with a guy Jordan Walker's size barreling at you.
1:40
But yeah, I would be surprised if Carlson is going to be
1:43
available for Thursday in Los Angeles.
1:46
So we should know more on Dylan Carlson.
1:48
I want this to be more about kind of our our season preview.
1:52
We can give all of our hot takes and then we can we can go back
1:55
months from now and see how wrong we were.
1:58
Let's just start Big picture. I was going through a lot of the
2:01
MLB.com projections and whatnot. I think it.
2:05
I think it's kind of fun to look at that and break it down by
2:08
bullpen, rotation, offense, whatever it is.
2:10
But let's just start big picture, basically.
2:14
Baseball prospectusmlb.com tweeted this out.
2:18
They have the Cardinals winning the Central with a record of 84
2:22
and 78, which I think is is right where we we all kind of
2:26
think with the the Pakoda 858485 seems about right to me.
2:30
What do you think? It seems like where everybody's
2:34
marking their media and I I think the the sports folks are
2:37
around 84 1/2 if you were to play the over under game right
2:40
now. I'm going through my polls on
2:42
Twitter where I'm asking Cardinals fans over under and it
2:44
seems like we might only get to kind of the low 80s before the
2:48
majority flips over to saying under that win total.
2:52
Yeah, I mean Charlie, I think it's fair to say 84 or 85 is a
2:57
little optimistic maybe even. I hate to to be the pessimist of
3:01
the show, but it feels like there are things going wrong
3:04
this spring. And if we want to gloss over all
3:07
of them and say, yeah, it'll be fine, you know, you lose 3
3:10
outfielders, you've got depth. Sure, you're you're starting
3:13
pitching hasn't been that great this spring and the new guys you
3:16
brought in. But the one guy you thought
3:18
would be real good hasn't pitched because he's injured and
3:21
it's going to start the year on the IL.
3:23
Which could maybe just be a short term thing for Sunny Gray.
3:26
But like, are there enough kind of warning signs here that we
3:29
should maybe not be so comfortable to pencil them in
3:32
for 8485? Yeah, it's funny, you said I
3:36
hate to be the pessimist. I'm going to be the pessimist on
3:38
this podcast. OK.
3:39
So yeah. So here's the deal, and I've
3:42
said this a million times, you have to look at the team the way
3:46
it's comprised right now. We all know if the Cardinals are
3:49
in it, they'll look different. Trade deadline to me, that's
3:53
where if if anybody thinks this team is pushing 90 wins, I don't
3:58
know how they could say that based on the way this, this team
4:01
is comprised right now. OK, now it's different if they
4:04
add. If they added the deadline, I'll
4:07
change my mind on that. But I agree with you.
4:10
I feel like 8485 to me feels like the top end of what the
4:18
Cardinals could do right now with this particular roster.
4:22
So I'm interested to see how your poll results end up.
4:26
I do think a lot of Cardinals fans are even more pessimistic
4:30
this year, which is why, from a betting standpoint, I'd probably
4:33
go the opposite, to be honest with you.
4:36
Interesting. I I totally get why a lot of
4:39
Cardinals fans look at this more as an 80 win team and and that's
4:43
where I'll just reiterate, I would be shocked if this team
4:48
didn't add at the deadline and somehow got close to 90 wins.
4:52
I would be shocked by that. Now can they get to 8485 as
4:56
comprised? That wouldn't shock me.
4:59
This does not strike me as and and 90 wins isn't even elite,
5:04
but with the starting pitching probably going to be average
5:08
with all the injuries, I just don't see this as a 90 win team
5:11
at all. I don't see the path to that as
5:14
constructed either. Like, I guess if you were trying
5:16
to build that out, you would say, look, if you went around
5:20
the horn and looked at full health, everybody in your
5:23
lineup, I think you're basically average to above average at
5:26
every position. And maybe some of those above
5:28
averages turn back into MVP candidates like an Arenado, like
5:32
a goalie, maybe offensively and Nolan Gorman takes that type of
5:35
step or even a Jordan Walker. But like, what if they don't,
5:38
right? What if they're more around a
5:40
median projection or perhaps even a little below for some
5:43
names? Then that offense is not top
5:45
five. It's maybe more like top ten,
5:47
top 12, which is still solid. But this is also an offense that
5:51
at times has just kind of disappeared for days in a in a
5:54
period of time and you go, well, the consistency of the offense,
5:57
like it's not a thing you can blame on Jeff Albert anymore.
6:00
That was kind of the popular thing when he was the hitting
6:02
coach. But we have seen, you know, in
6:04
in recent years the Cardinals still have those issues of
6:07
consistency day-to-day, putting up runs and they've kind of
6:10
built a pitching staff where they say, look, we don't need to
6:13
maybe score 8-9 runs to win these games, but probably most
6:17
days you're going to have to get to 5.
6:18
If you're if your starters giving up three or four in the
6:21
bullpens holding it there, it's a nice strategy but you're still
6:23
going to have to put those runs up consistently.
6:25
So if that's the version of the offense that you get and then
6:29
you you try to squint and see the rotation as a top unit, I
6:32
guess you could, I mean Sonny Gray could get healthy and
6:35
repeat. Maybe Lance Lynn reverts back to
6:37
pre 2023 numbers. But I mean Kyle Gibson kind of
6:40
feels like he's going to be where he is.
6:42
Maybe a bounce back for Michael. Listen, and Steven Matz's health
6:45
could happen, but I think you're asking a lot to say, Oh yeah,
6:48
all these things are going to come to fruition and the
6:50
bullpens going to be great and the defense is going to be
6:53
flawless. That's how you get to 90.
6:55
Like it feels like a lot to ask all.
6:57
Right. Let's break it down by groups.
6:59
Kind of like football here. We'll we'll start with with
7:02
offense, lineup and and again, I'm just playing around with the
7:05
MLB stuff because I think it's fun.
7:07
So no National League Central teams, by the way, were
7:11
projected in the top 10 of lineups for baseball.
7:14
Both the Reds and the Cardinals were honorable mention.
7:18
Now you and I don't remember exactly how you said I don't
7:20
want to put words in your mouth, but you said if the Cardinals
7:23
could sneak into that top five offensively.
7:26
I don't personally think that's going to be the case.
7:28
But I but I do think top 10 or whatever, you know, 891011,
7:32
whatever that is. I think that's very doable.
7:35
I look at that line up and I like it.
7:37
However and look I don't try to go crazy over spring stats but
7:42
are you worried about Paul Goldschmidt right now?
7:45
I mean look it's spring but hitting about a buck OBP and and
7:51
slug about two bucks 20 strikeouts in in 46 at bats.
7:56
Didn't have a great season last year but his batted ball numbers
7:59
were better. He is he is getting older.
8:03
I I don't know. I could I could watch Paul
8:05
Goldschmidt this spring and kind of be like, I mean if Paul
8:08
Goldschmidt is not at least close to the typical Paul
8:12
Goldsmith, I think it's going to be hard for this, this offense
8:15
to even be top 10. Is is that fair?
8:17
Yeah. And I mean for as much as we
8:19
say, you know kind of take spring stats with a grain of
8:21
salt, you do look at them I feel like a little bit, especially
8:24
when it pertains to a guy like Goldsmith who had you know, a
8:27
little bit less in terms of productivity last year than you
8:30
expect. And and you could say well it's
8:33
it's is it part of the aging decline or is it just a one off
8:36
and like history would tell you it is probably part of an aging
8:40
decline. But we look at Paul Goldspit and
8:41
say well he's in such great shape.
8:43
He's so dedicated like he can he can get over that for a couple
8:46
of years and kind of defy father time and maybe he can but he
8:50
hasn't looked like he's going to the spring.
8:52
And I think we kind of take for granted that he's just going to
8:54
be plugged right into the middle of your lineup and and give you
8:57
that you know 850 OPS or whatever that he usually offers
9:00
and maybe he doesn't like Arnado is another guy sub 700 OPS this
9:04
spring, which again don't go crazy over.
9:07
But he had a stark decline late in the year last year that
9:10
dropped his overall numbers to below at 800 OPS for the first
9:13
time in a long time. So if those two guys and we're
9:16
just like mentally sort of cashing them in as being All
9:20
Star caliber hitters again and they aren't, then yeah, you have
9:23
more questions than you thought you did.
9:25
And that's before we even start talking about basically an
9:28
entire outfield worth of players being injured.
9:30
So there's a there are some concerns.
9:33
I think now we could get to the first week and Goldsmith could
9:35
be mashing and we go, OK, it's fine.
9:37
He was doing whatever he was doing in spring and that's
9:39
irrelevant now. And hopefully that's the case.
9:42
But like I I still think it's worth talking about a little
9:44
bit. If we're doing a season preview
9:45
to say, hey, in our minds, when I say top ten offense, I'm
9:50
counting on those guys being themselves.
9:52
And when I had said top five previously, I think my take was
9:55
I don't know that their top five.
9:57
I don't think they are. But I think they almost need to
9:59
be with the way their pitching is constructed to be as
10:02
competitive in not only the central, but like when the
10:06
central then get into the play offs and do something when you
10:08
get in there that might call for a top five offense with the way
10:11
the pitching staff is, is constructed.
10:14
I hear you. And when we look at the stats,
10:16
which again I just throw out there for fun, I don't think
10:19
anybody thinks Paul Goldsman's going to bat 109 for the season.
10:23
But on the other side you can, you can, you can focus too much
10:27
on the bad, you can focus too much on the good.
10:30
I do think it's funny when the Cardinals released their line up
10:33
the other day that was kind of projected as the opening day
10:37
line up and Matt Carpenter was sitting right there and we all
10:40
said, oh, Matt Carpenter, he's not going to take a spot from
10:43
somebody else and he's not going to get the hit too much.
10:46
Now obviously there's been a million injuries, so that
10:48
changes the the complexion of the opening day line up and
10:52
roster. But slash line 333 hitting 414
10:58
OBP over 600 slug. I mean Matt Carpenter right now
11:03
is going to get a chance and I just, I just think it's fun
11:05
because we all basically said this dude is just a essentially
11:09
a coach. It'd be pretty funny if Matt
11:11
Carpenter's good again. It'd be funny.
11:13
It'd be really nice. Like they could.
11:15
They could certainly use his bat being sort of a throwback to
11:18
what it had been in the years where he was an MVP candidate.
11:22
How likely that is to be sustained I guess we'll see.
11:25
But you know it it is interesting that he was in that
11:27
line up. I would have thought like home
11:29
opener, you probably put him in there for sure if you're facing
11:32
a righty. But opening day like Alec
11:35
Burleson is also had a nice spring and he would maybe be the
11:38
other lefty bat that would slide into that number six spot in the
11:41
line up. So I I guess we'll see.
11:43
But if he's if he's raking and doesn't have to play the field
11:48
because you know, he's never really been a plus fielder,
11:50
fine. Like the the Cardinals are going
11:52
to need kind of all hands on deck.
11:54
So I don't know if I terribly mind it.
11:56
I I I do think probably Burleson might be still the better option
11:59
in the long run. But you know, Carpenter could
12:01
defy the odds, and that would be OK with everybody, I think.
12:05
Yeah, what do you think? Just just big picture injuries
12:09
before we get to. We'll get to starting rotation
12:12
and bullpen. And I know some, some of the
12:15
injuries were basically baked into some of these projections
12:18
like Tommy Edmond, I think. I think the baseball world knew
12:21
Tommy Edmond was not going to be ready for Opening Day.
12:25
But you just look at, I'm talking about incrementally
12:28
getting picked off here and there.
12:29
When you're looking at now maybe Carlson and you have Tommy
12:34
Edmond out for a while. Lars Newbar, maybe not a long
12:37
time. Keenan Middleton.
12:39
We'll see. You got to think Sonny Gray's
12:42
missing what, two to three starts, whatever it is.
12:45
And I don't know. I just, I just.
12:47
I worry about just the little Knicks and the injuries here.
12:51
Just picking off at that win total and and also a team that
12:55
doesn't have a great margin for error.
12:57
And I I'm repeating myself, but man, I just feel like this team
13:00
could really benefit from a strong start.
13:04
And you have, what, 5 injuries? Basically you have 5 injuries
13:08
right now to your Opening day roster and you have a really
13:11
difficult schedule. That is not a good recipe for a
13:14
good start. Yeah, and these injuries have
13:16
happened before the regular season has even begun.
13:19
I mean, last year the first week Lars New Bar banged his thumb
13:23
slide into a base and he was out for weeks and weeks.
13:25
Like injuries don't just stop because the season starts.
13:29
You have to hope that at that point it doesn't get any worse.
13:32
I I do think we'll see new bar pretty soon.
13:35
I am still skeptical on Tommy Edmond until I hear he's full
13:38
go. I assume he's a ghost like it To
13:40
this point it's just been brutal the the recovery process and
13:44
having to start and stop and start and stop.
13:46
So he's kind of out of my mind in terms of somebody that can
13:48
help you right away with Carlson's injury.
13:51
Depending on the severity there, you could really hope to use
13:54
Edmond back even sooner than you had hoped previously because
13:58
Carlson was starting to pick it up and was was finally doing
14:00
some things against right-handed pitching.
14:02
But if his shoulder thing has him out, then that's another
14:04
spot that you're down. I mean, I I'm not terribly
14:08
worried about Gray, but but again, you could really use him
14:10
because the rest of that rotation is is, you know,
14:13
definitely suspect bullpen. I guess Keenan Middleton is the
14:16
main main injury. I know Drew Rahm is out to begin
14:19
the year, but I don't think he was destined for this roster to
14:22
begin with. So I I think it is kind of
14:25
outside of just the outfielders, man.
14:26
That's really where it's like you'd love to get one or two of
14:28
those guys back because it is important to start fast.
14:31
And it's nothing against Michael Ciani or any of the other guys
14:34
that would fill in, but like you want to be able to put your best
14:36
foot forward for these first few weeks in the grilling schedule
14:39
that you have. OK, let's let's go to pitching
14:43
and let's go to starting rotation.
14:46
And again, we're just having fun with the MLB rankings, which by
14:49
the way, they power ranked the Cardinals 18th, which I thought
14:53
was a little little low. I thought maybe they'd come in
14:55
middle of the pack. I thought 18th was kind of low.
14:57
But this is just, that's the whole team.
14:59
By the way. Who?
14:59
Tweeted this by the way, I haven't seen this this.
15:02
Wasanmlb.com article before this show here I went through.
15:06
I just. I looked at a bunch of their
15:07
lists. This is a that's.
15:08
Hard research I guess. No, I'm a list guy.
15:11
Don't you think lists, Lists are fun to talk about?
15:13
Especially this time of year, yeah.
15:14
Yes, exactly. We have nothing else to go on
15:16
but these stupid lists, but they're fun and they provide us
15:19
content, so I thank MLB.com for that.
15:22
So I find it funny though, when I go through all these lists and
15:26
there's like no central teams in the top ten of any of these.
15:30
So look, we know this is up for grabs.
15:32
So starting rotation again, no National League central teams in
15:37
the top ten. I I don't think there's any
15:40
chance the rotation's gonna be elite.
15:42
I don't know if there's a great chance this rotation will even
15:45
be good. I I think if they are middle of
15:49
the pack, I mean can you see this starting rotation being
15:54
better than middle of the pack And I guess if you say OK, 14th
15:58
or whatever, I mean I I'm talking about creeping towards
16:01
the upper 3rd of baseball. I don't see that happening.
16:05
I I see them falling somewhere in the teens for a starting
16:09
rotation. What do you think?
16:11
Yeah, I don't know that you can get beyond middle of the pack
16:14
without really. Like again you could paint the
16:16
best case scenario. Gray's back quick and he's
16:19
himself Lance Lynn. You know he was terrible last
16:22
year. But if you look prior to last
16:24
year Lance Lynn had a lot of good years that he's strung
16:25
together in a row. And so maybe he's a three 9 ERA
16:28
and you're like, oh that's that's like a #2 Miles Michael
16:32
is maybe reverts back to being an All Star kind of pitcher 3
16:36
1/2 ERA. Like suddenly you've got a one
16:38
through three that you're you feel really good about.
16:40
And you know we'll see from from the other spots.
16:42
Like I kind of feel like Gibson's your #5.
16:44
Maybe a guy like Thompson emerges and and kind of forces
16:48
the issue where you want to keep giving him opportunities.
16:51
You know remains to be seen. Stephen Matz is kind of a
16:54
question on health. But I just don't I don't really
16:57
see it. I don't see.
16:58
I I would probably say 18th is somewhat fair.
17:01
I think you have room to kind of get to the 18th, 14th, but
17:05
sorry. 18th was the whole team. Just so you know, that was the
17:09
power rankings of the. Team Yeah, I I tried to find the
17:12
list and I I couldn't find it. So I'm just going to give up on
17:15
that. No, no, I just what I was saying
17:17
is they only did top 10. So this is in terms of rotation.
17:21
I know I'm confusing everyone, but the Cardinals and no teams
17:24
in the Central were in the top ten in so they.
17:26
Didn't tell you where the rotation landed.
17:28
Just the team in general is 18th, OK?
17:31
Yeah, I mean, to me, if they're saying the team overall is 18th,
17:34
that might say their view of the rotation is like bottom 10 for
17:37
sure, right? Because we think the offense is
17:39
is pretty decent at worst. So yeah, I would say man, about
17:44
at its best, 13th, 14th. But if I had to put it on a
17:46
median, I would say probably 18th to 20th.
17:49
And maybe I'm wrong and I'd love to be wrong because I you you
17:52
want to root for Kyle Gibson. He's a good dude.
17:54
He's he's Gibby, right? But you look at his spring stats
17:57
and we'll call back, look at his spring stats, it hasn't gone
18:00
well so far. And maybe he's just such a
18:01
veteran that that that that stuff doesn't matter.
18:03
And he he gets into the regular season and he's right back to a
18:06
4-5 ERA. But until we see that in kind of
18:09
that stabilization at the bottom of the rotation, you do kind of
18:12
worry about that spot just a little bit.
18:14
And Steven Mats hopefully could be full health.
18:17
But he's kind of been brought along slowly this spring to
18:19
where I don't feel like we have a great handle on where he's
18:22
going to be Opening Day. And if you think back to last
18:24
year, his numbers finished pretty good.
18:26
I think his ERA was below 4. His ERA was like 6 the first
18:30
time he was in the rotation, to the extent that they had to pull
18:33
him from the rotation and put him in the bullpen for a while,
18:35
not because of injury, but because of performance.
18:37
So you can't have that version of Matt's and a questionable
18:40
version of Gibson And and not really knowing yet what you get
18:43
from Lynn like that makes it difficult to say, yeah, this
18:46
will be a top 10 rotation. I find it hard to to kind of
18:49
carve out the path there. Hope I'm wrong.
18:52
Could it be 1213 if everything breaks right?
18:54
Sure. But that's you're asking 5 spots
18:56
to cooperate at that point? Yeah.
18:59
And I think that gets back to our earlier conversation about
19:02
what is the top end of the Cardinals right now as comprised
19:06
win total. We both said 8485 I think I
19:09
think the top end of the rotation if everything fell into
19:13
place which it already hasn't by the way.
19:15
I mean I think the best case scenario is probably like you
19:18
said, maybe 12th or or 13th and that's with everything going
19:23
great, but it's probably more middle of the pack and it
19:25
wouldn't take too much fall off to drop into the 20s.
19:30
And let's just look at a couple numbers.
19:32
Again, it doesn't doesn't really matter, but I think it's
19:34
interesting to discuss. So spring, ER as we'll start
19:38
with the good Michaelis 2.14, Zach Thompson 2.81, the bad
19:44
Lance Lynn is pushing 8, Kyle Gibson is pushing 11 and Steven
19:49
Matz is over 8. So again, I I don't know what it
19:53
means. I do feel like this kind of gets
19:56
back to the fantasy baseball thing where I joked that every
19:59
time I think of Kyle Gibson, I do think of him giving up four
20:02
consecutive home runs to the Cardinals.
20:04
I just feel like Kyle Gibson is so hitable at times, you know
20:10
what I'm saying? Like, he really has to be.
20:12
He has to be on. He has to have a good defense.
20:16
I. Just feel like.
20:17
This could be a fun. This could be a fun team,
20:19
though, because again, I think there's gonna be a lot of 6/5, a
20:22
lot of six, five wins, hopefully for the Cardinals.
20:25
These aren't these aren't elite starters that are going to
20:29
strike out a a ton of dudes. There'll be some strikeouts.
20:31
You got some good strikeout numbers, Gray and Lynn, and if
20:34
Gibson can can get up there, But I think there's going to be a
20:37
lot of OK, but I'm saying. You look at his numbers, man, He
20:41
just won't be. OK, I'm saying, but he and
20:45
Michaelis are kind of similar. Not terrible, but what are we
20:48
talking? Probably 3/4 of a strikeout per
20:50
innings pitch something I. Want to say Gibson's like in the
20:55
sixes per nine and Michaelis is around 7, which like in and in
20:59
fairness you say that's not terrible.
21:00
I think it's basically bottom of the league last year for both
21:03
those guys and like, I don't know, you know, what do you
21:07
consider terrible? Like one, one per one would be
21:10
good, right? Nine per nine, we're cool with.
21:12
I feel like anything below that and they're not really a
21:15
strikeout guy. These guys are more like 6-7
21:17
strikeouts per nine, which is, you know, is what it is.
21:20
They're going to have to rely on their defense, which could be OK
21:23
if they prioritize defense and, you know, keep guys in the right
21:27
spots. Hold on what?
21:29
You got it. Is it is a little better and I
21:31
don't have a good memory, but for Gibson last year his case
21:36
per nine was 7.4. His career is 7.2.
21:41
He had 157 KS in 192 innings. So that's like I said, like it's
21:48
like 3/4 of a strikeout per innings pitch.
21:51
I thought Michaelis was the same.
21:53
I'll, I'll look that up right now, but go ahead.
21:54
He's he's down there. I mean, yeah, they're both going
21:57
to rely on their defense. I think Lynn can strike out a
22:00
dude per inning. That's probably something he's
22:02
capable of doing. Hopefully Sonny Gray, even
22:04
higher than that. Hopefully Zach Thompson, like
22:06
you know, hones his stuff and can be a guy that misses a bunch
22:09
of bats as well and like Steven Matz can do that as well.
22:13
It's just so hard to put a grade on Steven Matz because we
22:16
haven't seen enough of him consistently, like stay healthy
22:20
and then have a full year and we'll see.
22:22
And you're right. No, I'm just, I'm just, I want
22:24
to give the stats or you're right on.
22:26
It's good. You're right on Miles Michael as
22:28
he was in 201 and 3rd, 137, so he's closer to six.
22:33
He was 6.1, he's 6.6 for his career, so.
22:37
I had him a. Little better.
22:38
There you go. Yeah, I had them two switched in
22:40
my head, that's all. No, go ahead.
22:42
I just, hey, I'm trying to provide just the stats for
22:45
people. That's good.
22:46
No, I that's what I wanted. I was trying to look him up
22:48
myself, but you were quicker, that's all.
22:50
No, I just had him switching my head.
22:51
To me, that's like, you don't strike out many people.
22:54
Like I think Michael, I looked this up at the end of the year,
22:57
like bottom three of the bottom 5 in baseball that pitched at
23:01
least 100 innings were Adam Wainwright, Dakota Hudson and
23:04
Miles Michaels in case per nine. So like you, you wonder how they
23:08
struggled last year. So the Cardinals, Wayne was
23:11
going to go sing, and Dakota is going to go pitch for another
23:15
team. And you know what?
23:16
You, you you see what you can do there.
23:18
Like Lance Lynn, I think is going to be important.
23:20
Can he replacing one of those slots in your rotation, be a
23:24
strikeout guy who also doesn't have a sort of inflated ERA?
23:27
He struck out guys last year. Lance Lynn did.
23:29
It's just he gave up a lot of home runs.
23:31
I think Busch Stadium is going to help that.
23:33
I generally think Lance Lynn's going to be pretty good.
23:34
But you talk about like the defense mattering.
23:38
You just watch spring games. Lance Lane gives up contact at
23:41
times as well. He throws a bunch of fastballs
23:43
and they're they're going to put some balls in play.
23:45
We know Michael is going to allow balls and play.
23:47
Gibson obviously is going to allow balls and play too.
23:49
So like that's 60% of your rotation that I do feel like the
23:53
defense has got to be ready to back you up and that's kind of
23:56
why I was on board with Tommy Edmond, center fielder, because
23:58
I thought good range can help these these contact oriented
24:02
pitchers have good years. Now there's no Edmond.
24:05
We'll see when he gets back. Dylan Carlson was was going to
24:08
be a decent center field option. Now we'll have to wait and see
24:10
on him. You know, I'm, I'm hoping that
24:13
the defense can kind of stabilize.
24:14
I think Mason win it short, that's going to be good.
24:16
But defense will matter for this rotation.
24:18
That's kind of been my drum beat all off season.
24:22
Hold on, hold on. That's my new thing here.
24:25
I like it. Really long finger look at that
24:28
like. A witch's finger or something
24:29
like I'm a goblin. It takes it.
24:30
The whole frame. I know all right and and no one
24:34
cares about this. The reason I do that is I think
24:36
when people are on a Zoom or a stream yard, I don't think it's
24:41
good to talk over each other if you and I were in the same room.
24:44
Oh yeah, we were up to C and that's the.
24:47
Only reason I do that, just so you know.
24:50
So I'll go like this stuff like that, OK?
24:53
I'd rather you positive it's better it's.
24:56
My long, weird finger OK, that's good.
24:58
Let's be positive now. And it's not just MLB thinks
25:03
that the Cardinals may have the 7th best bullpen.
25:06
I think, I think a lot of people we're high on this bullpen with
25:11
the way it's been constructed and it is that Heim Bloom way of
25:15
constructing A bullpen. You just careful bullpen.
25:18
You just take, you take 10 names and you throw them against the
25:21
wall and there's a very good chance that five of them are
25:24
going to stick. And you take some young guys and
25:27
you take guys with different roles and you take some rule
25:30
five guys and you take a bunch of guys with options that you
25:33
can just ride that Memphis train up and down and look at the top
25:38
end. If Ryan Helsley's healthy, we
25:40
know he's really, really good. Riley O'Brien has been has been
25:43
Dang impressive. I'm just trying to go through
25:45
some of the numbers here. I know JoJo Romero hasn't had a
25:48
great spring. Andre Palante's been good.
25:52
I just think there's a lot of options.
25:54
Do you? Gallegos has been good.
25:55
If if he even comes back to being that that really
25:58
dependable second best arm and maybe he doesn't need to be,
26:01
maybe you know, Kittredge could be that.
26:03
Who knows when Middleton comes back.
26:05
I just like that There's a lot of names that I could
26:08
potentially trust. Yeah, and like, O'Brien's
26:11
interesting because he's probably, you know, 3rd or 4th
26:14
or maybe maybe even further down that depth chart of of right
26:17
handers. Behind Helsley, Guy goes
26:20
Kittredge and then Middleton when he gets back.
26:22
I think Middleton being out maybe secures a spot for Palante
26:26
because otherwise he was maybe kind of on that line where you
26:28
go, well, what's his role? I actually think Palante very
26:31
valuable to have. I know some Cardinals fans got
26:33
frustrated with him last year, but if you look at his outings,
26:36
he would deliver that ground ball they were asking him to
26:38
deliver damn near every time and it would just find a hole.
26:41
I don't think the Cardinal defense on the infield was as
26:44
good last year as it had been in previous seasons.
26:47
Hopefully Mason win a full season of him at shortstop can
26:50
can kind of help that. I think Gorman has improved
26:52
defensively at 2nd, so I still feel like that's a valuable.
26:55
I call him like a utility knife out of the bullpen where he can
26:59
just get you a double play ball and almost have that be his
27:02
role. And then if you're in one of
27:03
those mop up situations, Palante can also just go out and eat it
27:06
for three innings if that's what you need from somebody.
27:09
So I kind of like him being in that bullpen too.
27:11
And then from the left side, like you mentioned Romero
27:14
struggling a little bit and and I feel like they envisioned him
27:17
being their top lefty dude. When you needed somebody in the
27:20
8th or even the 9th to face a line up comprised of lefties in
27:24
that spot, you can trust Romero and maybe they'll still give him
27:27
the chance to do that at first. Look out for Matthew Libertor
27:30
though, because he's made this team, he's been told he's on the
27:32
roster and we saw at the end of last year he looked like a
27:35
confident different version of himself when pitching in relief.
27:38
And it would not surprise me to see by June or July.
27:41
We view Matthew Libertor sort of like that.
27:43
Andrew Miller, Lefty reliever. Not like him.
27:46
Performing like Hall of Fame level like Andrew Miller did for
27:49
years before the Cardinals. But like to be that guy for this
27:52
team I think is possible for Libby, and that might allow
27:55
people to maybe look at that. A Rosa Reyna trade a little
27:57
different. I know that one is one that a
27:59
lot of Cardinals fans don't love.
28:00
Libby hasn't pinned out as a starter, but maybe if the
28:02
Cardinals just like accept that, they could maybe find a better
28:05
role for him. This could be the year where he
28:08
could take off as a reliever and be a legitimate weapon for the
28:10
team. OK, we got about 5 minutes left.
28:14
Let's start with win total. I'm just going to throw it out
28:17
there. I'm going to say 83 wins.
28:19
What does Brendan Schaeffer say? I was going to say 82 and I and
28:23
I think if they're at 500 at the deadline, your thought process
28:27
on they'll add. So maybe it becomes 848586 is
28:30
certainly in play. But I'm a little, I'm a little
28:33
gun shy right now. I got to be honest and I didn't
28:35
think a month ago I'd be in this spot.
28:38
But there's just been enough where it was like if you had a
28:40
perfect spring or a or a close to perfect spring, maybe a
28:43
reliever goes down and you go, OK, you'll get him back in a
28:45
month, but you don't have all these other injuries.
28:48
I probably, I'm not saying I'm panicking by going 82, but I
28:51
would have been 8586 and I would have been pretty comfortable.
28:54
Like, yeah, they'll figure it out, but there's just been
28:56
enough. And again, you don't want to
28:58
overreact to spring. But there's been enough for me
29:00
to go, hey, let's remember, like, they did win only 71 games
29:04
last year and I've been able to talk about why they can maybe
29:07
close that gap without a bunch of external changes.
29:11
And they've made some external changes that should be helpful.
29:13
But I there's just been enough for me to go.
29:16
I think they're about little bit above 500, but maybe 8283 is
29:20
enough to win the Central Charlie.
29:21
But for me right now it's like it could go the other way.
29:25
Like let's say the first week of the season is traumatizing and
29:29
more guys get hurt and they can't beat the Dodgers and like
29:32
I'm not predicting it's going to go that way.
29:33
I think they'll hold their own. But I don't know.
29:35
For me right now it's like that I would set that over under
29:38
personally at 82 1/2 and if you if you made me I'd go under by
29:41
1/2 I'll go 8280. See, I I'm with you in the sense
29:45
I was actually higher on the Cardinals basically this winter
29:49
because I don't think the Cardinals were as bad as the 71
29:53
wins suggest. I think Wayne was thrown out
29:55
there for ceremonial reasons and they didn't try the second two
29:59
months of the season. So I don't think the jump from
30:01
71 to 85 is as big as a lot of people think.
30:05
But as you said, not only has this not been a good spring, you
30:08
could make the case. It's been an an awful spring
30:11
with Sonny Gray being hurt, The one guy that can't get hurt, a
30:14
million outfield injuries and they're just stacking up.
30:17
We haven't played a game in Nuke Bar and Edmond and now Carlson.
30:20
We'll see what happens. Keenan Middleton.
30:22
So OK. Got a couple more minutes.
30:24
Here I do have a hard out. You mentioned this and I'm
30:27
curious. There's my finger again.
30:29
All right. I'm gonna speak.
30:30
Yeah. I'll give you 2 questions 1st,
30:33
and we're going to do a show, by the way, folks, on Friday to
30:36
kind of break down the first game.
30:38
But give me What's the Cardinals record after the Dodgers series?
30:42
I'm going to, I'm going to say one.
30:43
And three, it's probably 1:00 and 3:00, but can I be
30:48
optimistic and say two and two, Yes, I thinking this lineup is
30:53
going to be about the lineup because the the pitching's going
30:55
to give up some runs. The Dodgers are going to score
30:57
on you a little bit. That's just going to happen.
30:59
But like Cardinal, lineup needs to kind of assert itself.
31:02
I think in this opening series, I know they're not going to be
31:05
at full strength, but there's a lot of dudes in this lineup.
31:07
On paper, I really like this lineup.
31:09
But if we get a few weeks into the season and everybody's
31:12
underperforming, the lineup doesn't look as good.
31:14
I'm going to say two and two with the full acknowledgement
31:17
that I might be wrong and you might be right.
31:20
Well, and and look, it doesn't really matter.
31:22
It's fun. And my my last question on the
31:25
schedule is we've all discussed this, this brutal start before
31:29
of course the great Oakland A's which they they play on tax day
31:35
April 15th. But before that you have 16
31:38
games, four versus the Dodgers, 3 versus the Padres, 3 versus
31:42
the Marlins, 3 versus the Phillies, 3 versus the Arizona
31:46
Diamondbacks. You would think all those teams
31:48
are going to be in the playoff hunt.
31:50
What do you think the Cardinals record is through the 1st 16?
31:54
I just did it in my head real quick.
31:56
I'm going to say 6 and 10. I was going to say 7:00 and
31:59
9:00. So I think that about tracks
32:01
with with where we are on the opening series, you can find the
32:03
difference there, 7:00 and 9:00, which I think would be fine by
32:06
the way, 6 and 10, I think you start to worry a little bit.
32:09
Not that that's going to like that one game difference, but
32:11
seven and nine you feel you're you're right around 500, you're
32:14
just a touch below. If you're 6 and 10, you know
32:17
there's a quicker path to the the wheels falling off. 7:00 and
32:21
9:00 I think is my prediction and honestly I would take that
32:24
as a car. If you're Cardinal fan, I'm like
32:26
look it's not ideal you want to be 500.
32:28
I think if you can be that'd be that'd be good.
32:30
But if you're seven and nine you're you're in the mix and
32:33
that's going to sound disgusting but I think like that's when
32:35
you're grounded in reality on on what this, this schedule could
32:38
bring. Now watch them go 12:00 and 4:00
32:40
and just make us look dumb. Who knows?
32:42
Sure. But also, even if you're 6 and
32:44
10, seven and nine, and then let's just assume they win the
32:48
series versus the A's or things get crazy and you sweep the A's.
32:52
But 7:00 and 9:00 and then a two, one series win over the
32:56
A's. I'm bad at math.
32:57
All of a sudden you're what? You're 9 and 10 and and you're
33:00
good to go. You're like, we got through the
33:02
gauntlet. Hopefully we're healthier.
33:03
Now let's play some baseball. What do you think?
33:06
I think that would be a strategy.
33:08
They would take, they they would take, they would never say it
33:10
out loud, but they would privately probably say 9 and 10.
33:12
After that we would be OK. All right.
33:15
And this show is OK. Sometimes it's better than OK,
33:18
We have a heart out, a hard out. Do you?
33:21
Need 1/2 an hour to prepare for for the for the the next show.
33:24
What is this a hard out well? I I like to give them the link
33:27
very early. They want the link early to set
33:30
up. We're interviewing over on the
33:32
Kenny Wallace show. Ben Kennedy, who basically runs
33:34
NASCAR. That'll be out later today on
33:36
Tuesday. People want to check that out.
33:38
I gots to go. Brendan great job and we will do
33:41
a longer show on Friday, breaking down the first game of
33:45
the season. And I have a YouTube channel.
33:48
Go find it. B Chafe daily on YouTube and his
33:52
fantasy football channel. He's got it all going.
33:55
B chafe Thanks. Comment, like, Subscribe.
33:56
Share the videos. Share the channel.
33:59
Happy baseball season everybody. Drop your comments.
34:01
What do you think? Win total.
34:03
Disagree with us? Agree with us?
34:04
Drop your win totals right there in the replies.
34:08
Sign Trevor Bauer and all that. OK, see you guys.