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Cliff Notes: The Perfect Investing Plan with Ian Dunlap · Earn Your Leisure

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Speaker 1: Earners, what's going on?
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Speaker 3: Top performing assets of so silver took the lead. It
1:02
Speaker 3: drew down thirty four percent at one point and went
1:04
Speaker 3: up one hundred and twenty seven. I know everybody was
1:07
Speaker 3: so happy about gold. Gold had a lower draw down
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Speaker 3: but also had a lower return. Then small cap stocks
1:12
Speaker 3: took off like crazy, and then crude had a nice
1:15
Speaker 3: bounce off of that low.
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Speaker 1: That happened.
1:17
Speaker 3: But if you look at the bond market, the bond
1:19
Speaker 3: market is a hedge. Didn't draw down that much, but
1:24
Speaker 3: it didn't grow that much, right, so a lot of
1:27
Speaker 3: you were asking about how to include bonds into it.
1:29
Speaker 3: It's not going to give you the best game. It's
1:31
Speaker 3: going to give you a decent a decent hedge. However,
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Speaker 3: so we can see the returns here if you want
1:35
Speaker 3: to screenshot this Silver forty seven percent. Small cap was
1:39
Speaker 3: eighteen percent, Canadian stocks two point eight, corporate bonds nine
1:43
Speaker 3: point seven. Once again to Tech two index, very simple formula,
1:49
Speaker 3: uh Tech performing the best in twenty twenty, hands down,
1:52
Speaker 3: So you can see information technology on average was at
1:54
Speaker 3: eighty nine percent assuming discretion Earia was second. Third was communication.
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Speaker 3: This mix will not change. I know some of your wondering.
2:01
Speaker 3: Will engine energy turn around in twenty twenty one to
2:03
Speaker 3: twenty two, They're going to be at the bottom of
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Speaker 3: the barrel. Financials may bump up this year, more so
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Speaker 3: probably in twenty twenty three if interest rates go up,
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Speaker 3: but until then tech will be the dominant leader. Now,
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Speaker 3: let's look at currencies. The Swiss frank only drew down
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Speaker 3: two point one percent, so it only lost two point
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Speaker 3: one percent of its value. I want you to go
2:23
Speaker 3: look at the correlation for how they handle COVID versus
2:26
Speaker 3: other countries, and the Chinese wand only lost two point
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Speaker 3: nine percent, so the Australian dollar lost more twenty one
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Speaker 3: point five and the rebounded well. But we want to
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Speaker 3: put our money into things that have lowest draw down.
2:40
Speaker 3: Big gains are great, but not everyone is able to
2:43
Speaker 3: sit through a drawdown of fifty percent of forty five percent.
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Speaker 3: The first thing you need to look at at any
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Speaker 3: asset is what's the highest draw down over a ten
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Speaker 3: year period that asset has. That wild tell you how
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Speaker 3: much safety you have in it. The biggest win is
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Speaker 3: of twenty twenty Novavak. I don't think it would be
3:01
Speaker 3: that great this year, but it had a hell of
3:04
Speaker 3: a run. Tesla. Of course, Tessa is going to be
3:07
Speaker 3: to the moon. Maderna solid zone. Of course, Bitcoin on
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Speaker 3: overshot is happy because he didn't sell all his coins
3:13
Speaker 3: and there was a bunch of IPOs, and I think
3:15
Speaker 3: that the SPAC thing is done, even though there's maybe
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Speaker 3: one or two companies that have done a decent job
3:19
Speaker 3: with him and the biggest losers Carnival. I hope they're
3:23
Speaker 3: able to rebound because if not, there's a lot of
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Speaker 3: people that are going to lose their jobs and never
3:26
Speaker 3: be able to recover. Energy stocks, Air Canada crew and
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Speaker 3: then the Footsie one hundred. So a lot of you
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Speaker 3: are looking for international exposure. I could argue that Silicon
3:38
Speaker 3: Valley has the best talent from most nations that have
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Speaker 3: been drafted here. The international exposure that you need for
3:46
Speaker 3: most global corporations are going to be domestic based. So
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Speaker 3: I need you to type in chat, what is the
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Speaker 3: return you want to get this year? Because this year
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Speaker 3: is not going to be like last, so the probability
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Speaker 3: of getting one hundred percent return in the year is
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Speaker 3: going to be a lot lower. I want you to
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Speaker 3: set the baseline for what you want to get in
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Speaker 3: terms of return and be happy with that, and anything
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Speaker 3: above that is extra. For those of you who started
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Speaker 3: last year, I'm sorry, you're not gonna get sixty percent
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Speaker 3: on accident. This year, you'll be able to squeeze out
4:19
Speaker 3: twenty five. You came in at a great time, but
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Speaker 3: I want us to be realistic. We're going to be
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Speaker 3: more on the tech side, maybe twenty to twenty eight
4:27
Speaker 3: percent opposed to sixty and seventy and chart time. So
4:32
Speaker 3: every week I'm going to go over the same and
4:34
Speaker 3: I was going to give a new way to get
4:37
Speaker 3: into the market. I'm actually a why the hell unch y'all?
4:40
Speaker 3: Using the two hunred day moving average?
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Speaker 1: Ask him again, man, why can you.
4:45
Speaker 3: Explain I because some people might be new, this might
4:47
Speaker 3: be their first time ever watching market Monday. Can you
4:49
Speaker 3: just explain what the two hundred day moving average is?
4:52
Speaker 3: It takes a last two hundred days or collection of
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Speaker 3: data and then it marks off on this line where
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Speaker 3: the average is. So, if you're looking for an easy
5:02
Speaker 3: and simple way to consistently get in, this is Microsoft
5:05
Speaker 3: and it went down today. So if you look at
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Speaker 3: a daily chart, depending on what time horizon you look over,
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Speaker 3: Microsoft came down exactly to the spot and bounced up.
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Speaker 3: You can see the high few days prior with twenty seven.
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Speaker 3: This is around two thirteen. Give it about four or
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Speaker 3: five weeks you'll be able. So for those of you
5:23
Speaker 3: who are like, hey, you guys never tell us how
5:25
Speaker 3: to get get in, even though we gave five ways
5:27
Speaker 3: last year, I'm going to focus on the two hundred
5:30
Speaker 3: day moving average. And this is also a place where
5:33
Speaker 3: you can start to load the boat. Load the boat.
5:35
Speaker 3: This is where a lot of technicians, prop firms, hedge funds,
5:39
Speaker 3: fund of fund managers are looking to get in. So
5:42
Speaker 3: it's a universally respected indicator because it's not new, because
5:47
Speaker 3: it's not sexy, and only nine people in Nova scotiad
5:51
Speaker 3: know about it, and then somebody from Atlanta flew back
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5:56
Speaker 3: as much, but you need a system that's super easy
6:00
Speaker 3: that you can use over and over again, and it's
6:02
Speaker 3: an easy way to buy. So when we drop down
6:04
Speaker 3: to and this is only for quality companies, only for quality.
6:09
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Speaker 3: Hey, it doesn't apply to that because it's going to
9:05
Speaker 3: burn through the two hundred. But a good company is
9:07
Speaker 3: gonna come down around this area, maybe float a little
9:09
Speaker 3: bit lower in three or four weeks, start to go up.
9:13
Speaker 3: This is the perfect investment plan for twenty twenty one.
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Speaker 3: Write this down and I can hear y'all on YouTube
9:18
Speaker 3: on a replay four long term positions for the year.
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna be real. I've talked to at least six
9:28
Speaker 3: or seven hundred people that missed out on some great
9:30
Speaker 3: companies because they were switching company. Oh. I like tests,
9:33
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna get out of it and I'm gonna
9:34
Speaker 3: get in iniol. I'm not mad at it. But whatever
9:38
Speaker 3: you pick, I want you to marry the positions that
9:40
Speaker 3: you have type and chat. Marry the positions now. If
9:44
Speaker 3: you're wrong and the company's no good or the thesis
9:48
Speaker 3: changes great. But if you have a great company, hold
9:52
Speaker 3: on to it. Hold on to it. Like I said,
9:55
Speaker 3: it's like having a star basketball player. I'm not trading
9:57
Speaker 3: Michael Jordan for anything. Do not care?
10:00
Speaker 1: Do not care.
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Speaker 3: Number Two twelve swing trades on the year, so that
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Speaker 3: whether that's futures, any other assets or derivatives, I want
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Speaker 3: you to take twelve. That's one per month. You should
10:12
Speaker 3: know what the games that will come from that. And
10:14
Speaker 3: then for short term investing, I want you to do
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Speaker 3: twenty four. This is not apply to the Snipers or
10:19
Speaker 3: anybody in Alpha, but for everyone else. If you're looking
10:21
Speaker 3: at futures, you can do twenty four trades and hit
10:24
Speaker 3: a ridiculous return and be okay, okay, key point here.
10:29
Speaker 3: I only want you to take trades that you know
10:31
Speaker 3: will not lose. And here's how to know if it
10:33
Speaker 3: won't lose. If you have to ask someone, Hey man,
10:36
Speaker 3: Hey Troy, you think if I get in right here?
10:39
Speaker 3: If I have to ask, it's not good. Your intuition
10:42
Speaker 3: is already telling you. And then also when you take
10:45
Speaker 3: a Saturday and go through the entire market, map out
10:49
Speaker 3: where you want to get in those same bizones on
10:51
Speaker 3: a macro level. Once you pare it down to your
10:54
Speaker 3: entre daytime frames, they're gonna line up and you're gonna
10:56
Speaker 3: have a chance to take a trade there as well,
10:58
Speaker 3: and be okay. These are the top ten lessons to
11:01
Speaker 3: improve your performance with trading. Number one, keep your losses small.
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Speaker 3: Your win should be ten times bigger than your losses.
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Speaker 3: Easy risk reward. You want to risk one to make ten.
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Speaker 3: Number two, don't chase a move. If you miss it,
11:15
Speaker 3: let it go. Kudos to the snipers. You've seen me
11:17
Speaker 3: do this, Send a text, miss my move and be
11:20
Speaker 3: frustrated as hell.
11:21
Speaker 1: I get it.
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Speaker 3: But once you're if you want to get into a position,
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Speaker 3: let's say at two hundred and forty four bucks, once
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Speaker 3: it goes to two forty five, if you're trading it,
11:31
Speaker 3: don't touch it. Don't get distracted and miss an excellent setup.
11:34
Speaker 3: Do not trade against the market. The market can eat
11:37
Speaker 3: can only go north or south. Even with range bound
11:41
Speaker 3: people like, oh, well we're ranging and we're consolidating. Man,
11:45
Speaker 3: the move is either slowed down because it's going to
11:48
Speaker 3: explode to the upside or downside. That's why everybody, oh man,
11:51
Speaker 3: Apple slowed down okay, and then we saw it took
11:55
Speaker 3: off like crazy. There is build up. I need you
11:58
Speaker 3: to know this. When the market is constricting or getting tight,
12:02
Speaker 3: that is the time to set up your moves on
12:05
Speaker 3: a large So if you're looking at a day chart
12:07
Speaker 3: or something higher, a breakout move is going to come.
12:11
Speaker 3: Have the patience to wait three or four weeks for
12:13
Speaker 3: it to break in your favor. Everyone's talking about financial freedom,
12:17
Speaker 3: but you can't wait four to five weeks. You're trying
12:19
Speaker 3: to flip. Don't flip. The money will be there. Do
12:22
Speaker 3: not trade when the volume is low. I'm begging you,
12:26
Speaker 3: you're going to get your head chopped off, your account
12:28
Speaker 3: cut in half, and maybe margin call. Wait until volume
12:32
Speaker 3: is at a peak so your orders can get filled.
12:34
Speaker 3: You can get exits on your trades if you have
12:36
Speaker 3: a predetermined area that you want to get out, and
12:39
Speaker 3: then that way you won't be sitting in a loss
12:42
Speaker 3: potentially for three or four hours either. And then, do
12:45
Speaker 3: not trade overtrade under any circumstances. If your plan is
12:48
Speaker 3: to take twenty four in the year, take twenty four
12:51
Speaker 3: number seven. Do not increase your position size or dollar
12:54
Speaker 3: amount and a trade to try and recover. So let's
12:56
Speaker 3: say you are trading twenty contracts features and you lost
13:01
Speaker 3: seven grand I do not want you to go trade
13:03
Speaker 3: forty contracts just try and make up for it, because
13:06
Speaker 3: you already got the direction wrong. So if you wrecked
13:09
Speaker 3: a camera, I can't put you in a ferrari and
13:12
Speaker 3: then let you wreck that as well. Come back trade
13:15
Speaker 3: the same size, and if you're doing a one to
13:17
Speaker 3: ten risk of reward ratio, you don't need that many
13:20
Speaker 3: trades to recover the loss and be back in profit.
13:23
Speaker 3: Number eight.
13:24
Speaker 1: This is key.
13:24
Speaker 3: Do not micromanager trades. Let them run once you secure profit.
13:29
Speaker 3: So if you get in the trade and unlet's say
13:30
Speaker 3: you're up ten percent and you lock in two percent,
13:34
Speaker 3: let it run. If your target is forty percent, let
13:38
Speaker 3: it go there. A lot of you are self sabotaging,
13:40
Speaker 3: and we all do it and it takes time to
13:43
Speaker 3: get over it. But a lot of people are self
13:46
Speaker 3: sabotaging and cutting off winners when you could have let
13:49
Speaker 3: certain stocks or trades run up thirty forty to fifty
13:52
Speaker 3: eighty percent last year, and you cut them off at
13:54
Speaker 3: ten percent. Know what your exit is before you enter
13:57
Speaker 3: the trade. Number nine, do not trade if you're in
13:59
Speaker 3: the bad. If you got into argument with your kids
14:02
Speaker 3: and you made them breakfast and they spilled juice juice
14:04
Speaker 3: all over your keyboard, don't trade that day. I'm telling
14:06
Speaker 3: you got into a fight with your significant other, don't
14:09
Speaker 3: do it. And number ten this is the most important.
14:11
Speaker 3: Do not trade unless you know what your statistical edge
14:15
Speaker 3: is in the market. You should know your win percentage,
14:18
Speaker 3: your profit factor, the best time to trade, and the
14:21
Speaker 3: best asset that you trade. Once again, your win percentage,
14:25
Speaker 3: your profit factor, the asset that you trade the best,
14:29
Speaker 3: and what time of day you trade that best. This
14:32
Speaker 3: is an off emotion. This has to be hard data
14:36
Speaker 3: and that's it.
14:36
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Speaker 2: out our live YouTube show Market Monday's every Monday, eight
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