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Has Cyber Monday overtaken Black Friday? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Kicking off our two here on the Financial Exchange, Chuck,
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Speaker 2: Mark and Sucker with you, and the dows up two
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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty seven point d Rooney's to forty four
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Speaker 2: one thirty seven s and p IS up sixteen points
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Speaker 2: to fifty nine sixty four. The Nasdaq up just ten
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Speaker 2: points to eighteen nine eighty two.
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Speaker 3: When it's down by a lot, you should say that
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Speaker 3: because it softens it, it makes it sound whimsical. Well,
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Speaker 3: we're down five hundred point of runeyes today. Doesn't it
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Speaker 3: sound a little? Doesn't that cushion it a little? I
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Speaker 3: know we're not, by the way. I'm just that as
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Speaker 3: an example.
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Speaker 2: You, Tucker, do you think that that would be kind
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Speaker 2: of not not condescending, but.
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Speaker 3: Oh for some people might minimize, oh, just some seriousness.
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Speaker 2: Of something that is uh, you know, kind of not
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Speaker 2: really reflect if you're trying to hide what's actually.
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Speaker 3: Had lescens Yes, which is precisely the point, Chuck.
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Speaker 2: I don't see myself that way.
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Speaker 3: Well, well, bring me in and I'll do the updates
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Speaker 3: on bad days. I don't really want to have like
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Speaker 3: Disney kind of I want to just be direct with
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Speaker 3: what's happening, like this is the deal. Here, here's how
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Speaker 3: it is. I don't know seriously, I think it okay, what.
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Speaker 2: Do you mean? What do you mean? Seriously? Like a
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Speaker 2: deeper CNA.
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Speaker 3: Down one point of Rooneyes today, c NBC reports.
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Speaker 2: And when we look at the ten year treasury, it
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Speaker 2: is off one point eight base point of Rooneyes. He
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Speaker 2: doesn't work with base points, no basis points. Yeah, it's
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Speaker 2: never but the tenure Treasury is down two basis points
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Speaker 2: now to four point four to one to two.
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Speaker 3: The uh.
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Speaker 2: Let's see oil. We've got West Text Intermediate up another
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Speaker 2: eighty eight cents barrel to seventy dollars and ninety eight
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Speaker 2: cents at the moment. The triple A national average for
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Speaker 2: gas price is still following, though, down another half cent
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Speaker 2: per gallon right now to three oh five and eight tenths.
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Speaker 2: We now have over ninety thousand gas stations around the
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Speaker 2: country that are under three dollars a gallon most of them.
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Speaker 2: It kind of looks like an l So if you
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Speaker 2: start at North Dakota and go down to Texas and
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Speaker 2: then over to South Carolina. That is where the cheap
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Speaker 2: gas is is in that little L shape over there.
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Speaker 2: Why are lines, I don't know, just where it is
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Speaker 2: right now, just where it is. You can also, I
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Speaker 2: guess there's also like a little little spiggott going up
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Speaker 2: through Kentucky and Ohio where you've got gas prices around
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Speaker 2: two eighty a gallon as well. But then the second
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Speaker 2: you get into Pennsylvania where they do a lot of
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Speaker 2: the fracking, it's at three twenty four. So I don't know.
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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sure it also is gas taxes and
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Speaker 2: things like that at the state level that play into this.
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Speaker 2: Let's see, we've got gold today up thirty dollars announced
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Speaker 2: to twenty seven oh four to ninety, founding nicely after
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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks of weakness there. And those are
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Speaker 2: the big things that are moving in markets today. Markets
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Speaker 2: talk a little bit about the FED. I'm hoping that
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Speaker 2: the Tucker's right where I am on this. But John Williams,
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Speaker 2: who is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
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Speaker 2: New York, what's going on. It's John Williams. He wrote
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Speaker 2: this song It's the Imperial March from Star Headphones.
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Speaker 3: I was going, I was going headphones. I have unusually
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Speaker 3: shaped ears. Guys, it's uncomfortable. I thought, are that you
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Speaker 3: were doing our Star Deaths. There's another Star Wars parallel here,
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Speaker 3: he's our Star Interesting Deaths.
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Speaker 2: No, so so we're Tucker's playing the Imperial March from
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Speaker 2: Star Wars, which John Williams, the composer wrote. But every
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Speaker 2: time we talk about John Williams from the FED, we
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Speaker 2: act like you have the same yeah, because.
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Speaker 3: It's also the FED on a bunch of different You know,
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Speaker 3: you don't play the rebel.
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Speaker 2: Alliance theme when you're talking about the FED. You know,
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Speaker 2: it's it's not how it works. So John Williams says, hey,
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Speaker 2: I think that inflation is going to continue too cool
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Speaker 2: from here. We think we can get closer to that
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Speaker 2: two percent uh mark on inflation. And even though we're
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Speaker 2: seeing a little bit of warmth in the economy right now,
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Speaker 2: he's willing to look through it, which, quite honestly, is
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Speaker 2: what I'd like to hear from Jay Powell, because this
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Speaker 2: is what Jay Powell was saying earlier in the year.
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Speaker 2: Remember Q one of this year, when inflation data was
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Speaker 2: coming in hotter, and Powell on multiple occasions was like, listen,
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Speaker 2: we know that we're seeing this right now. We don't
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Speaker 2: think it's a big deal. Let's give this a little
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Speaker 2: bit of time and see how it plays out. And
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Speaker 2: the reason why I think this is important to do
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Speaker 2: is not because like Powell's always going to be right
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Speaker 2: on it, but much more we're in a cycle now
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Speaker 2: where the market just seems to be overreacting to every
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Speaker 2: data point that comes out because the Fed's indicating that
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Speaker 2: they're so data dependent. You know, Powell's like, well, we're
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Speaker 2: gonna have to see what the next month or two shows,
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Speaker 2: instead of having some kind of more coherent this point
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Speaker 2: long term strategic plan and vision. And I think Powell
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Speaker 2: had that right in the first part of this year,
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Speaker 2: and I just would like to get back to them
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Speaker 2: at least appearing to be a little bit less reactive
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Speaker 2: to every data point out there.
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Speaker 3: I mentioned Bob Rubin, Clinton's Treasury secretary in the last
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Speaker 3: second Treasury secretary, I think in the last hour, and
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Speaker 3: Bob when asked about I don't know him. I was
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Speaker 3: calling Bob. When asked about the US dollar, he would
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Speaker 3: always say a strong US dollar is in the country's interest,
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Speaker 3: full stop. Didn't elaborate it was beautiful and markets stayed calm.
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Speaker 3: He never upset them. The FED chair should probably get
6:55
Speaker 3: into some these all these FED officials, they all talk
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Speaker 3: too much, and a lot of it does end up
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Speaker 3: being so called noise as opposed to so called signal
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Speaker 3: i ese, something substantive that you can act upon. They
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Speaker 3: should probably get into the practice of saying there is
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Speaker 3: a short term trade off between inflation and unemployment, and
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Speaker 3: this is right out of the textbooks. There's no long
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Speaker 3: term trade off. We are thus always trying to balance
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Speaker 3: those inflationary forces against the forces that drive unemployment up.
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Speaker 3: The way we do that is finding the right interest rate.
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Speaker 3: We think we're close, and we'll watch data to make
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Speaker 3: sure that that's the case full stop. Anything else I
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Speaker 3: think is confusing, and it also is a distraction to
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Speaker 3: those of us that aren't monetary policy economists, which including
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Speaker 3: those of us who might at times wear an economist hat.
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Speaker 3: That's still ninety nine point nine percent of us. It's
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Speaker 3: such a specialty. John Williams is the He wrote the canonical,
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Speaker 3: highly influential paper on the natural rate of interest. So
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Speaker 3: we sometimes refer to it is our star, and that,
7:53
Speaker 3: by the way, is a convention used when you're solving
7:55
Speaker 3: for anything in a math or in an economics problem,
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Speaker 3: especially it put a star next to it, that's where
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Speaker 3: you be. So Williams is the father of the modern
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Speaker 3: approach for estimating the neutral rate adventures so called our star.
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Speaker 3: So I'll defer to him he ought to know. I
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Speaker 3: still think they all ought to either choose their words
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Speaker 3: more carefully, choose them to educate and enlighten, as opposed
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Speaker 3: to words that not deliberately but end up confusing people.
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Speaker 3: And keep your statements very simple, keep us all focused
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Speaker 3: on the prize. I benefit from that personally.
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Speaker 2: And another thing I say this is someone who, by
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Speaker 2: the way, at least in the last twelve to eighteen months,
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Speaker 2: I think the FED by and large has done a
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Speaker 2: pretty good job. I think the previous you know, twelve
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Speaker 2: to eighteen months they do is look a little hair job.
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Speaker 2: I think they've been pretty darn good.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, credit words too.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not trying to just rip on them, you know,
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Speaker 2: over and over. I think they've been pretty darn good
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Speaker 2: since quite honestly, probably since Silicon Valley Bank blew up.
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Speaker 2: Like you know, they could have overreacted to that and
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Speaker 2: been like, we need to cut interest rates, and they didn't.
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Speaker 2: They did get well, so I give them some credit.
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Speaker 2: Even going back maybe like twenty one months now, not
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Speaker 2: twenty two. Powell gets asked in these press conferences, Hey, like,
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Speaker 2: what data points are you looking at? And he makes
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Speaker 2: the mistake of saying, I'm looking at you know this,
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Speaker 2: where it's like, oh, I'm looking at you know, the
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Speaker 2: quits rate for Joltzer. We were paying attention to the underemployment,
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Speaker 2: and it's it's like okay. Then those things reverse and
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Speaker 2: he'll get asked six months later, well, you're still looking
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Speaker 2: at this, and he's like, well, no, I'm not anymore.
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Speaker 2: Now I'm looking at this, and it's like now you're
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Speaker 2: just moving the goalposts on it, and it just it
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Speaker 2: feels not good.
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Speaker 3: I think that comes from not being trained in economics.
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Speaker 3: If one thing they drill into you is that short
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Speaker 3: term trade off, so when you close your eyes, you
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Speaker 3: should be able to picture it, and it doesn't matter
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Speaker 3: whether you use unemployment or job openings relative to the
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Speaker 3: number of what are you saying, Well, maybe don't tell
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Speaker 3: us what you're saying right now, depending but he meets
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Speaker 3: you should have a frame. You should have a framework
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Speaker 3: in mind for inflation, and he doesn't. And it's because
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Speaker 3: it's not He's a smart guy, trained lawyer, very successful
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Speaker 3: private equity investor. Not taking anything away from his capacity,
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Speaker 3: he just doesn't have a frame. You know what somebody
10:09
Speaker 3: with a framework is like. It's the difference between me
10:12
Speaker 3: doing my own plumbing and me hiring a professional who
10:14
Speaker 3: knows exactly what to do, exactly whether or not to solder.
10:18
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not even gonna get the language right
10:20
Speaker 3: because I'm such an amateur, but you know the difference
10:21
Speaker 3: between a professional and a home job. That's what I
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Speaker 3: detect when I hear Powell speak versus say Williams or others.
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Speaker 3: They at least have a framework in mind. It's coherent,
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Speaker 3: and the FED doesn't always communicate with that kind of clarity.
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Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we come back,
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Speaker 2: we're joined by Ted Rossman from bank Rate, talking about
10:41
Speaker 2: Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
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Speaker 2: As promised, We're joined now by Ted Rossman from Bank
11:46
Speaker 2: Right here to talk about Black Friday and Cyber Monday expectations. Ted,
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Speaker 2: how are you.
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Speaker 5: I'm doing well. Thanks for having me.
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Speaker 2: When we look at the popularity of you kind of
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Speaker 2: the upcoming big shopping days Blackfridy Friday, Small Business Saturday,
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Speaker 2: Cyber Monday, which one is most popular amongst Americans these days.
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Speaker 5: Cyber Monday actually takes the top spot. Fifty nine percent
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Speaker 5: of US adults are likely to buy something on Cyber Monday.
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Speaker 5: That's ahead of Black Friday at fifty three percent and
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Speaker 5: Small Business Saturday at fifty percent. I would note that
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Speaker 5: all of these events are a big deal, obviously, but
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Speaker 5: the holiday season really started earlier than ever this year.
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Speaker 5: A lot of the best deals started in early October.
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Speaker 5: Half of holiday shoppers got underway prior to October thirty first,
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Speaker 5: So this is really more of the midpoint or even
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Speaker 5: verging on the home stretch of the holiday shopping season.
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Speaker 2: Do you see any kind of demographics split in terms
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Speaker 2: of age in which demographics prefer each of these days
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Speaker 2: more than others.
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Speaker 5: Young adults, Gen Z years and millennials are the most
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Speaker 5: likely to be shopping on all three of these days.
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Speaker 5: The Small Business Saturday component surprised me the fact that
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Speaker 5: about six and ten Gen z ers and millennials are
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Speaker 5: going to shop small Business Saturday versus forty six percent
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Speaker 5: of Gen X and forty percent of boomers. I would
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Speaker 5: have thought, out of all the shopping days, that's the
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Speaker 5: one that feels a little more I'll say vintage or
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Speaker 5: you know, quaint, but actually.
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Speaker 2: You'd say it feels a little more boomer, right.
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Speaker 6: It does.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, but yet it's going to be gen z 's
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Speaker 5: hitting up these small local businesses, So, you know, I
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Speaker 5: thought that was interesting. It shows that in person shopping
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Speaker 5: is not dead and a lot of people are doing
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Speaker 5: a mix. I mean, even though we found forty three
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Speaker 5: percent of shoppers planned to make most of their buys
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Speaker 5: online and only twenty one percent plan to make most
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Speaker 5: of their buys in person, many people are doing a mix.
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Speaker 5: They're shopping big, they're shopping small, they're shopping in person,
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Speaker 5: they're they're shopping online, and there is something to be
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Speaker 5: said for the local community. Feel the treasure hunt kind
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Speaker 5: of aspect of you don't know what you're looking for,
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Speaker 5: but you might find something great. If you're looking for
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Speaker 5: the lowest prices and the widest inventory, then the big
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Speaker 5: stores are going to win, and a lot of times
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Speaker 5: the online stores are going to win, but there is
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Speaker 5: still a place for small business Saturday, what.
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Speaker 2: About overall budgets. What are you hearing in terms of
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Speaker 2: how much people are going to be spending this year?
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Speaker 2: And is that a difference from what you've heard in
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Speaker 2: prior years.
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Speaker 5: People are feeling fairly frugal this year. The expectation from
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Speaker 5: the National Retail Federation and MasterCard and Deloitte and others
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Speaker 5: is for something like a two or three percent gain
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Speaker 5: over last year, so growth but not exceptional growth, kind
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Speaker 5: of more or less in line with inflation. The NRF
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Speaker 5: says that the average holiday shopper is going to spend
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Speaker 5: about nine hundred dollars on gifts and decorations this season.
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Speaker 5: Target issued a bit of a warning this week where
14:49
Speaker 5: in their earnings release they said they actually expect their
14:52
Speaker 5: fourth quarter to be pretty flat, and some saw that
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Speaker 5: as a warning sign for the industry. Others said, maybe
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Speaker 5: it's more specific to its business. They have more discretionary
15:03
Speaker 5: items than some of their rivals, and they've had some
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Speaker 5: other business challenges, so you know, it remains to be
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Speaker 5: seen if that's a warning sign for the whole industry.
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Speaker 5: But you know, bottom line, people are being pretty frugal
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Speaker 5: this year. It's part of why retailers started early with
15:17
Speaker 5: the good promotions in October. People only have so much
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Speaker 5: they want to spend this year. They're being pretty thoughtful
15:22
Speaker 5: about it.
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Speaker 2: And how are people actually paying for these gifts this year?
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Speaker 2: We seeing credit card usage increasing. Are people saying, Hey,
15:30
Speaker 2: I want to stay frugal and so I'm just paying
15:32
Speaker 2: with cash? And debit cards like what do we see
15:34
Speaker 2: in there?
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Speaker 5: Overall, credit cards are projected to be the most popular
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Speaker 5: buying method. There's a huge difference, of course, between those
15:42
Speaker 5: who use credit cards and pay in full and avoid
15:45
Speaker 5: interest versus those who are paying an average interest rate
15:48
Speaker 5: of about twenty percent. By the way, the average store
15:52
Speaker 5: card charges about thirty percent. So that's one that you
15:54
Speaker 5: really want to be careful about this holiday season. It
15:57
Speaker 5: really is half and half in terms of card holders
15:59
Speaker 5: who to pay in full and those who don't. For
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Speaker 5: some people, maybe they should stick to cash or debit,
16:05
Speaker 5: and maybe that makes it easier to budget. Credit Cards
16:09
Speaker 5: are great if you pay and fall and you get
16:11
Speaker 5: the rewards and the buyer protections. By now pay later
16:14
Speaker 5: is going to be an interesting element as well. Last year,
16:18
Speaker 5: usage surged forty year over year on Black Friday and
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Speaker 5: Cyber Monday, according to Adobe. Sometimes it's a good deal,
16:26
Speaker 5: but sometimes it encourages you to overspend.
16:29
Speaker 2: Ted appreciate you joining us today. Thanks so much for
16:31
Speaker 2: the time, No problem, Thank you. It's Ted Rossman from
16:34
Speaker 2: bank Rate All right.
16:36
Speaker 4: Time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange on this
16:39
Speaker 4: day in nineteen ninety five, toy story hit theaters across
16:42
Speaker 4: the country. Toy Story was the first entirely computer animated
16:46
Speaker 4: feature film, as well as the first feature film from Pixar.
16:49
Speaker 4: Toy Story was nominated for three Academy Awards, but was
16:53
Speaker 4: left out of the Best Picture category. Trivia question today,
16:58
Speaker 4: how many Pixar films have been nominated for Best Picture
17:01
Speaker 4: at the Oscars? Once again? How many Pixar film Excuse me? Yeah,
17:05
Speaker 4: how many Pixar films have been nominated for Best Picture
17:10
Speaker 4: at the Oscars. Be the fourth person today to text
17:13
Speaker 4: us at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
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Speaker 4: five with the correct answer, and you win a Financial
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Speaker 4: Exchange showed t shirt.
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Speaker 7: Once again.
17:20
Speaker 4: The fourth correct response to text us at six one
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Speaker 4: seven three six two thirteen eighty five will be our winner.
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Speaker 4: See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange show dot com.
17:31
Speaker 2: Mark, let's talk, Uh, you want to talk energy or mortgages?
17:35
Speaker 3: You tell me anything but Pixar films. No offense, No offense.
17:39
Speaker 3: Ben Kitchen, who I know, puts a lot of work
17:41
Speaker 3: into that.
17:43
Speaker 2: There's some really great Pixar.
17:44
Speaker 3: Films, I Mark, I just know nothing about Have you
17:48
Speaker 3: seen any of the about them? Probably it may be inadvertently.
17:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably mostly accidentally.
17:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, he was looking for a yes or no.
17:55
Speaker 2: But well, I say, probably, Which ones do you think
17:58
Speaker 2: you've seen?
17:59
Speaker 3: Could you name a few the popular ones?
18:00
Speaker 2: Oh, Boy, Toy Toy Story.
18:03
Speaker 3: I may have seen snippets of that cars Yeah, and
18:06
Speaker 3: I don't think so.
18:07
Speaker 2: Finding Nemo Wally.
18:09
Speaker 3: No, I didn't even know that was a film.
18:11
Speaker 2: Let's see right of two wee.
18:13
Speaker 3: We talked about this this morning more oddly inside Out No, No.
18:18
Speaker 2: The Good Dinosaur. No one's seen The Good Dinosaur. That
18:20
Speaker 2: movie's stunk, it has it?
18:24
Speaker 3: I movie dunk.
18:26
Speaker 2: A couple of interesting things about The Good Dinosaur. First,
18:29
Speaker 2: it's basically a combination of Bambi and The Lion King,
18:32
Speaker 2: but with dinosaurs. The other thing is, it's fascinating to
18:36
Speaker 2: me that they put a scene in it where the
18:39
Speaker 2: dinosaur gets high on mushrooms, literally literally gets high on
18:43
Speaker 2: mushrooms in a kid's movie. And it's just kids just
18:46
Speaker 2: won't notice because they're they're kids. They don't they don't
18:49
Speaker 2: really understand what's going on. But there's literally a dinosaur
18:53
Speaker 2: getting high on mushrooms for like five minutes of the
18:55
Speaker 2: Movie's wild.
18:58
Speaker 4: It was pg though it was it bumped it up
19:01
Speaker 4: for that probably.
19:03
Speaker 2: So uh, okay, so we're going with what about a
19:06
Speaker 2: bugs life?
19:07
Speaker 4: No?
19:08
Speaker 2: No, no, sorry, I told you okay, So uh, I'm
19:13
Speaker 2: glad that we had this conversation and we're going to
19:16
Speaker 2: take a quick break just to decompress a little bit
19:19
Speaker 2: and think about this, and when we come back, we'll
19:22
Speaker 2: talk about both mortgage rates next year and what we
19:25
Speaker 2: might see from the energy industry.
19:40
Speaker 7: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day,
19:45
Speaker 7: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:51
Speaker 7: Text us at six one seven three, six two five
19:54
Speaker 7: with your comments and questions about today's show and let
19:56
Speaker 7: us know what you think about the stories we are
19:58
Speaker 7: covering this the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:12
Speaker 2: All right.
20:12
Speaker 4: Trivia question today was how many picks are films have
20:15
Speaker 4: been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars?
20:18
Speaker 2: That would be two? That would be uh.
20:20
Speaker 4: In twenty ten, Up was nominated for Best Picture but
20:23
Speaker 4: lost to The hurt Locker, and in twenty eleven, Toy
20:27
Speaker 4: Story three lost Best Picture to The King's Speech. Winner
20:31
Speaker 4: today of the Financial Exchange Show t shirt was Steve
20:35
Speaker 4: from Danver's Mask. Congrats to Steve. And we played trivia
20:39
Speaker 4: every day here on the Financial Exchange See complete contest
20:43
Speaker 4: rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
20:46
Speaker 2: Mark, Well, mortgage rates go up or down next year?
20:49
Speaker 3: I think anybody who answers that question and takes themselves
20:52
Speaker 3: seriously should have their heads examined. It depends on a
20:55
Speaker 3: number of factors. Chuck, is the safe and correct answer?
20:59
Speaker 3: Which fact are you looking for? Well, we know that, Yeah,
21:03
Speaker 3: mortgage is tied to interest right now.
21:04
Speaker 6: I know.
21:05
Speaker 3: No, it's fair. Not every I'm sorry, I'm not everybody
21:08
Speaker 3: makes the connection between mortgage rates and interest rates, and
21:12
Speaker 3: in turn what the government is borrowing, which influences rates
21:16
Speaker 3: on treasuries because it influences the supply of treasuries depends
21:20
Speaker 3: on the demand for treasuries. All these things factor into
21:22
Speaker 3: and then there are some other risks that are embedded
21:25
Speaker 3: into the interest rate on a mortgage relative to risk
21:28
Speaker 3: free credit, risk free anyway treasuries. So if you think that,
21:32
Speaker 3: for example, government baring is going to go up in
21:34
Speaker 3: the economy will remain strong, interest rates should stay the
21:38
Speaker 3: same or go up. All lse equals so mortgage rates
21:41
Speaker 3: will stay the same or go up. So if you
21:43
Speaker 3: have a guess about where intermediate term interest rates the
21:48
Speaker 3: ten year Treasury, specifically the benchmark for the thirty year
21:51
Speaker 3: mortgage in this example, if you have a guess about
21:53
Speaker 3: where that's going to go, you can make an educated
21:54
Speaker 3: guess about mortgages. I try, but I'll be.
21:57
Speaker 2: Wrong, And I think this is something that's important. Note
22:00
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve does not set interest rates for mortgages.
22:05
Speaker 2: They set an overnight rate that long term rates basically
22:08
Speaker 2: then try to extrapolate, Hey, what is the Fed gonna
22:11
Speaker 2: do in the long run, coupled with some of the
22:13
Speaker 2: other things Mark talked about overall levels of government debt
22:16
Speaker 2: and things like that, overall growth levels, and that's how
22:19
Speaker 2: longer term rates end up getting set by the market.
22:22
Speaker 2: So when we've had this interesting thing for the last
22:25
Speaker 2: two months now, where mid September the FED decided, hey,
22:28
Speaker 2: we're gonna start cutting interest rates, and they've now cut
22:30
Speaker 2: interest rates the short term Fed Funds rate by point
22:33
Speaker 2: seventy five percent during that time, according to Mortgage News Daily,
22:38
Speaker 2: the interest rate on the thirty or fixed rate mortgage
22:41
Speaker 2: has gone up by over point eight percent. So even
22:44
Speaker 2: though the Fed has been cutting because there are expectations
22:47
Speaker 2: of either more growth or more inflation, or more debt
22:50
Speaker 2: or whatever it might be just the market saying yeah,
22:53
Speaker 2: we don't We're not buying whatever you know you're selling.
22:55
Speaker 2: In terms of this cutting cycle, mortgage rates have been
22:59
Speaker 2: moving up even though the f's been cutting. So just
23:01
Speaker 2: because you hear the FED cutting does not mean that
23:04
Speaker 2: mortgage rates are going down. Same way, just because you
23:07
Speaker 2: hear the FED hiking doesn't mean that mortgage rates are
23:11
Speaker 2: going up. They might have already front run it that
23:13
Speaker 2: it's one of the they're not linked in that fashion.
23:18
Speaker 2: So I think that's an important note just to make
23:21
Speaker 2: as well.
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24:20
Speaker 2: I want to go in a little different direction here,
24:23
Speaker 2: just because it's something that has always not always fascinated me,
24:26
Speaker 2: but with it getting you know, colder out now, and
24:28
Speaker 2: you know it's heading into winter. Do do either of
24:31
Speaker 2: you know how much wood is in a cord of wood?
24:35
Speaker 3: It's in a four by a cubic four x four
24:38
Speaker 3: x four or something, no, eight by four by eight
24:40
Speaker 3: or something uh close. It's something like it's a cubic
24:44
Speaker 3: something something something.
24:45
Speaker 2: So obviously so it ends up being a stacked woodpile
24:49
Speaker 2: that is four feet by eight feet by four feet,
24:52
Speaker 2: which is one hundred and twenty just kept her accomodation,
24:54
Speaker 2: which is one hundred and twenty eight cubic feet. Uh.
24:57
Speaker 2: And it's believed that the term cord of comes from
25:01
Speaker 2: the sixteen hundreds, where in order to get wood from
25:04
Speaker 2: one place to another, the wood merchants would tie you
25:08
Speaker 2: guessed it, a cord around that amount of wood to
25:11
Speaker 2: keep it from falling off of the you know, horse
25:15
Speaker 2: trailer and whatever it cord it must have been other
25:19
Speaker 2: interesting things. Do you know that in general, a typical fire,
25:24
Speaker 2: normal sized fire that you're you know, making, typically burns
25:27
Speaker 2: somewhere around a cubic foot of wood per hour. So
25:31
Speaker 2: if you're trying to figure out how much wood you
25:33
Speaker 2: need for the upcoming winter, the place you start is, hey,
25:37
Speaker 2: how many hours do I expect my fire is going
25:40
Speaker 2: to be going during the winter? And from there you
25:43
Speaker 2: can figure out do I need a full cord, a
25:45
Speaker 2: half cord, a third, a quarter, two cords, you know,
25:47
Speaker 2: so on and so forth. Other things that are just
25:51
Speaker 2: interesting because this I went down a rabbit hole last
25:54
Speaker 2: night and just I had to talk about this because
25:57
Speaker 2: it's it's fascinating to me when you talk about a
26:01
Speaker 2: cord of wood, a cord of northern red oak very specific.
26:07
Speaker 2: I know uh has twenty two point one million BTUs
26:13
Speaker 2: in it. Now let's talk about the B tou. Does
26:17
Speaker 2: anyone have any idea what a b tou actually measures? Mark,
26:21
Speaker 2: I feel like this might actually be right up your ally.
26:24
Speaker 3: Is it some measure of heat like calorie? Something obscure
26:27
Speaker 3: like that.
26:28
Speaker 2: Similar, It is the amount of heat required to raise
26:32
Speaker 2: the temperature of one pound of water by one degree fahrenheit,
26:40
Speaker 2: So water by weight, not by volume. Stick with me
26:44
Speaker 2: on this. So a B to you is remember a pound.
26:48
Speaker 2: Does anyone know how much? Either of you know how much?
26:50
Speaker 2: Play a gallon of water weighs eight.
26:53
Speaker 3: Point three three pounds.
26:55
Speaker 2: I believe Tucker any guesses about a gallon, and he guesses.
27:01
Speaker 3: The question again was how much does a gallon?
27:04
Speaker 1: Right?
27:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's eight point three three pounds, So each effectively,
27:08
Speaker 2: in order to raise the temperature of that gallon of
27:11
Speaker 2: water by one degree, you need eight point three three
27:14
Speaker 2: bt us. But remember, in a court of wood, you've
27:17
Speaker 2: got twenty two point one million of those, So you
27:20
Speaker 2: can heat a lot of water with a quart of wood.
27:23
Speaker 2: Is basically where I ended up. But I just again
27:25
Speaker 2: the B tou. You kind of look at and you're like,
27:28
Speaker 2: why does this exist? You know in this fashion? You know,
27:31
Speaker 2: what's what's what's the reason that this is actually a thing?
27:36
Speaker 2: And again I just kind of went down a rabbit
27:37
Speaker 2: hole on all of this stuff.
27:39
Speaker 3: What is the upshot?
27:40
Speaker 2: I had a friend of mine who was asking me
27:43
Speaker 2: he moved into a new place this year and they
27:46
Speaker 2: have a woodbirding stove to heat it, and he was
27:49
Speaker 2: asking me, like, how much wood do I need?
27:51
Speaker 3: In order to ask you, I am are you do
27:55
Speaker 3: you have a woodstove? I'm sorry I should have asked,
27:57
Speaker 3: are you a woodstove like a fish?
27:58
Speaker 2: No, I'm not, but.
28:00
Speaker 3: Because if i'd like depend on the size of the chamber,
28:02
Speaker 3: and like is the flu open all the way?
28:04
Speaker 2: And all I look, all I know is for some reason,
28:07
Speaker 2: like I'm marginally handy with things, and by marginally I
28:11
Speaker 2: mean I can put up drywall and stuff like that.
28:14
Speaker 2: But if you ask me to do plumbing beyond like
28:17
Speaker 2: putting a toilet in the answer is no, I'm not
28:19
Speaker 2: gonna touch it. Like I can do very basic it's
28:22
Speaker 2: pretty good house stuff. I won't touch electrical at all
28:25
Speaker 2: because the potential cost of fixing my bad electrical is
28:28
Speaker 2: way higher than just hiring someone to do that right
28:30
Speaker 2: off the bat. And that's generally how I think about
28:33
Speaker 2: most plumbing. Also, like I if I mess up drywall,
28:37
Speaker 2: I tear it down and I start again, and it
28:39
Speaker 2: costs me twice as much, whereas if I pay someone
28:41
Speaker 2: to do it, it's gonna cost three to four times
28:43
Speaker 2: when it costs me to do it myself. If I
28:46
Speaker 2: mess up electrical, the whole house burns down, and that's
28:49
Speaker 2: a way bigger cost than just paying someone to do it.
28:51
Speaker 1: Right.
28:52
Speaker 2: So, like that's how I look at home improvement projects is, Hey,
28:56
Speaker 2: if I have to do this two or three times,
28:58
Speaker 2: I can do it. If anything go wrong, that's bigger
29:00
Speaker 2: than that. I don't. It's it's not for me. But
29:04
Speaker 2: so some of my friends think that I actually know
29:06
Speaker 2: things about things, and I really don't. But I get asked, Hey,
29:09
Speaker 2: how much wood do I need for the winter, And
29:10
Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't know. I've never had a wood
29:13
Speaker 2: burning stove. But we got into this whole discussion about
29:16
Speaker 2: you know, how long are you gonna have it on?
29:18
Speaker 2: Do you have other supplemental heat beyond that? Like it
29:20
Speaker 2: was this whole thing that we went down.
29:22
Speaker 3: Don't you go through that calculus before you install the
29:24
Speaker 3: wood stove.
29:25
Speaker 2: He didn't install the wood stove, bought the he bought
29:27
Speaker 2: the place.
29:27
Speaker 3: Oh, it's go camp, I use the wood stove.
29:31
Speaker 2: He's trying to figure out, like how much is it
29:33
Speaker 2: going to cost to use this? And you know what
29:35
Speaker 2: do I need to budget for wood for the year?
29:37
Speaker 2: And should I start cutting down my own trail? Like
29:39
Speaker 2: we went through all these different things, and.
29:42
Speaker 3: Would you have bought the place without you would not
29:44
Speaker 3: have bought the place without doing that.
29:46
Speaker 2: I would kill this probably quite honestly, wouldn't buy a
29:49
Speaker 2: place with a wood stove as the only source of heat.
29:52
Speaker 2: It's not that I don't like the idea of heating
29:54
Speaker 2: at place like that, but the way that it makes
29:56
Speaker 2: sense is if you are constantly cutting down your own lumber,
30:00
Speaker 2: like your own trees, in order to provide fuel for it.
30:04
Speaker 2: Not Hey, I'm gonna pay someone to bring wood in
30:07
Speaker 2: to heat my house. And that's kind of where we
30:10
Speaker 2: got to last night, Not me, but like me with
30:12
Speaker 2: my my friend being like, you need to start cutting
30:16
Speaker 2: down trees if this is gonna make financial sense for you.
30:20
Speaker 2: No thanks, He didn't like that idea, So I'm like, sorry,
30:23
Speaker 2: you're kind of stuck with the house.
30:24
Speaker 3: Now, no, because then you smell, Hey, honey, that smells great.
30:27
Speaker 3: It's a squirrel in the woodstove. You know you don't want.
30:30
Speaker 2: That, sometimes you do. Let's take a quick break here.
30:35
Speaker 2: When we come back, we're gonna be joined by paul
30:36
Speaker 2: A Monica from Baron's right after this.
30:39
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Speaker 1: the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
31:19
Speaker 2: Paul Monica for Parents joins us now to talk a
31:21
Speaker 2: little bit about Live Nation. Paul, how are you today?
31:26
Speaker 6: I'm good? Thanks. How are you happy about the Daniel johnsnicks?
31:31
Speaker 2: You are? I am?
31:34
Speaker 6: I am?
31:35
Speaker 2: What do you think about Daniel Jones as a backup quarterback?
31:39
Speaker 2: For the Patriots. I think you could look quite good
31:42
Speaker 2: as a backup actually for a number of teams.
31:46
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think you look great anywhere, but in Giants
31:50
Speaker 6: Blue so well. Anyway, Live Nation Giants tickets, let's not
31:56
Speaker 6: already sold. That doesn't matter.
31:58
Speaker 2: So let's talk about Live because it's a company that
32:01
Speaker 2: comes up quite frequently when people talk about the companies
32:05
Speaker 2: that they dislike the most from a consumer perspective. What
32:10
Speaker 2: are the reasons why people don't like them from a
32:12
Speaker 2: consumer perspective.
32:14
Speaker 6: Well, I think, you know, Live Nation, which obviously owns
32:17
Speaker 6: ticket Master as well, there are you know, questions about
32:23
Speaker 6: monopolistic type practices, which is why the Department of Justice
32:27
Speaker 6: is looking at the potential for maybe breaking up Ticketmaster
32:31
Speaker 6: and Live Nation. Live Nation and Ticketmaster you know merged
32:35
Speaker 6: you know, back in twenty ten. And I think a
32:37
Speaker 6: lot of consumers don't like the high surcharges for many
32:43
Speaker 6: concerts and sporting events, the fact that it's difficult sometimes
32:47
Speaker 6: to get tickets on the day of sale. You know,
32:51
Speaker 6: ask any Taylor, Swift Van or Oasis recently, you know,
32:54
Speaker 6: just the issue of the resale market as well, you know, yes,
33:00
Speaker 6: you know, some would argue it's price gouging, but that's
33:03
Speaker 6: neither here nor there for investors. Investors love Live Nation.
33:06
Speaker 6: The stock's near an all time high because it is
33:09
Speaker 6: benefiting from the fact that, you know, following the pandemic
33:14
Speaker 6: shutdown for many live venues, it's been a very strong
33:19
Speaker 6: couple of years for concerts, for live sports, so that
33:24
Speaker 6: benefits Live Nation, and you know, there are hopes I
33:28
Speaker 6: think going forward that you know, maybe the stock gets
33:31
Speaker 6: a further boost because of some maneuvering that John Malone
33:34
Speaker 6: will do with his Liberty Live Tracking stock, which owns
33:38
Speaker 6: about thirty percent of Live Nation shares.
33:40
Speaker 2: What about all the anti trust concerns surrounding them. I know,
33:43
Speaker 2: the Biden administration has been revisiting some of the issues
33:47
Speaker 2: that have plagued them for a while, and the incoming
33:50
Speaker 2: Trump administration doesn't necessarily appear to be as friendly to
33:55
Speaker 2: companies from an anti trust perspective as you would expect
33:58
Speaker 2: at first glance. So what does that picture look like
34:01
Speaker 2: for them?
34:02
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's going to be very interesting to see.
34:04
Speaker 6: I think that when you look at how Live Nation
34:07
Speaker 6: shares have done since the election. They got a big
34:09
Speaker 6: pop the day after the election, and you know, earnings
34:15
Speaker 6: this month have also helped. I think there is a
34:18
Speaker 6: sense that investors are betting that maybe the Trump administration
34:21
Speaker 6: will be more relaxed with regards to anti trust concerns.
34:25
Speaker 6: But I'm not so sure that that's the right bet.
34:28
Speaker 6: I mean, Trump has not necessarily been a fan of
34:31
Speaker 6: big tech, and of course Live Nation is not the
34:35
Speaker 6: same thing as Alphabet, Google and Amazon and many of
34:39
Speaker 6: the other Magnificent seven companies that could be possibly forced
34:44
Speaker 6: to break up at some point. But I think what
34:47
Speaker 6: investors are missing is that, you know, you could have
34:52
Speaker 6: the continuation of this you know, anti trust, you know,
34:57
Speaker 6: investigation into Live Nation and Ticketmaster happening. And then the
35:01
Speaker 6: question becomes, if Live Nation is forced to spin off
35:05
Speaker 6: ticket Master, would that be a short term hitto the
35:08
Speaker 6: company or something longer term. Some people on Wall Street
35:11
Speaker 6: think that it might be the latter, and that it
35:13
Speaker 6: would only be a minor dent, But you know, I
35:16
Speaker 6: don't know if that's clear, and it's something that investors
35:20
Speaker 6: have to be worried about when you consider the stocks
35:22
Speaker 6: at an all time high and trading at a pretty
35:24
Speaker 6: premium valuation.
35:26
Speaker 2: Very good, Paul, appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
35:29
Speaker 2: so much for the time. I hope you have a
35:31
Speaker 2: great thanksgiving you if we don't talk to you before then.
35:34
Speaker 2: And best of luck to who's the uh who's the
35:38
Speaker 2: quarterback for the Giants now? Is it DeVito?
35:41
Speaker 6: Tommy DeVito?
35:42
Speaker 2: Probably Devido? Best of luck to the Davito led giants
35:45
Speaker 2: going forward?
35:46
Speaker 6: All right, thank you very much.
35:48
Speaker 2: That is Paul Monica from Barons talking about Live Nation Mark.
35:53
Speaker 2: What do you got for me to continue on here?
35:56
Speaker 2: Anything in the stack you want to get?
35:58
Speaker 3: What about a oil and gas prices? We didn't get
35:59
Speaker 3: to this. Donald Trump promised cheap energy during his campaign.
36:04
Speaker 3: He also promised record high profits to oil companies they
36:08
Speaker 3: funded a good part of his campaign. Can you have both?
36:11
Speaker 3: Aren't those two things in perfect tension? He said, differently
36:14
Speaker 3: to oil producers actually want more oil coming onto the ground.
36:18
Speaker 3: I'm asking a rhetorical question that Wall Street Journal provides
36:21
Speaker 3: the answer to.
36:22
Speaker 2: There's a There's one scenario in which you potentially can
36:25
Speaker 2: have both, and that is where external supply of oil
36:29
Speaker 2: is dramatically reduced and you have the need for more
36:33
Speaker 2: energy produced domestically because there isn't as much being produced internationally.
36:38
Speaker 3: Right, That would be a response to an economic, to
36:40
Speaker 3: an international or geopolitical excuse me, crisis, though, wouldn't it.
36:44
Speaker 3: Or some producer go like, you take a RAN offline
36:47
Speaker 3: and we can make up a few million.
36:49
Speaker 2: Barrels something like that.
36:51
Speaker 3: But that's not gonna happen in an instant, of course.
36:53
Speaker 2: So absent that. Look, I tell people know awf a lot.
36:57
Speaker 2: There's this really counterintuitive thing that happened during the Biden
37:00
Speaker 2: administration where hey, everyone got all excited about green energy
37:04
Speaker 2: stocks at the beginning, and everyone you know, was poo
37:06
Speaker 2: pooing traditional energy stocks. Over the next couple of years,
37:10
Speaker 2: the opposite actually ended up happening, because when you were
37:14
Speaker 2: subsidizing a bunch of green energy, it was not great
37:16
Speaker 2: for the profits of those companies. And on the other hand,
37:20
Speaker 2: when you had less oil being produced than what was needed,
37:23
Speaker 2: coupled with you know, some geopolitical shocks Russia invading Ukraine,
37:26
Speaker 2: you ended up in a position where traditional energy stocks
37:29
Speaker 2: did very well, but they did very well with high prices.
37:32
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's generally not something where you can
37:37
Speaker 2: have both good profits for energy companies and low prices
37:42
Speaker 2: for oil. You usually have one and not the other.
37:45
Speaker 2: They don't typically go together like p's and carrots.
37:47
Speaker 3: And if you stop and think about it, that that
37:49
Speaker 3: does make sense. Any company wants prices to be for
37:52
Speaker 3: the goods it sales to be higher, not lower. You
37:55
Speaker 3: couple that with the fact that we're producing more oil
37:58
Speaker 3: per day. This comes from the EIA, the Energy Administration Agency.
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Speaker 3: I think it is. We're producing more oil than virtually
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Speaker 3: antimon history.
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Speaker 2: We're gonna take a quick break for the next few
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Speaker 2: days or so, but we're back on Monday. I hope
38:10
Speaker 2: everyone has a great weekend. We'll see you Monday. On
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Speaker 2: the Financial Exchange