Latest / AI for Founders with Ryan Estes / Turn Illiquid Equity Into Real Wealth
Transcript
- 0:00Welcome back to AI for Founders. I'm Ryan Estes.
- 0:02What happens when 4 trillion in private company wealth gets
- 0:06locked up and founders, early employees and investors can't
- 0:09touch a dime of it? That's the problem today's
- 0:12guest, Greg Bragger, decided to solve.
- 0:15Greg is the founder of Collective Liquidity, a platform
- 0:17that finally lets its employees and founders of late stage
- 0:20startups turn their equity into actual wealth without giving
- 0:24half of it away to taxes. Before Collective, Greg built
- 0:28shares Post, which merged into Forge, the first major secondary
- 0:32market for Unicorn shares, and he's back to disrupt private
- 0:35markets all over again. In this conversation, we dig
- 0:38into the math behind diversification, how only 38% of
- 0:42Series C companies will ever deliver value, and why founders
- 0:46need a parachute before their IPO dreams crash.
- 0:50If you're a founder, operator, or startup employee sitting on
- 0:52equity and wondering how to turn it into real freedom, this
- 0:55episode is for you. Now, if you love conversations
- 0:58like this, join the newsletter at AI for founders.co.
- 1:02This is where we turn complex startup wisdom into founder
- 1:05friendly playbooks every week. It's where the smartest founders
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- 1:21building this founder powered universe together.
- 1:24Now let's talk about your voice. You've built a business worth
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- 2:11Now, you and I know startups are built in boardrooms.
- 2:13They're built in the wild during 3:00 AM.
- 2:15Bug fixes, botched launches, and that one meeting where
- 2:18everything almost fall apart. That's what Code Story is all
- 2:21about. It's a podcast where tech
- 2:23founders breakdown the make or break moments behind their
- 2:26products, What went wrong, what went right, and what nearly
- 2:29wrecked everything. Hosted by NOAA Labhart, Code
- 2:33Story goes past the highlight reel and into the honest stuff,
- 2:36late pivots, brutal bugs, and somehow coming out alive with a
- 2:40product that people actually love.
- 2:42If you're in the build stage or the scale stage or the Please
- 2:45Let This feature work stage, I can relate.
- 2:47This show will speak to your soul.
- 2:49Listen to codestory@codestory.co or wherever you get your
- 2:53podcast. Just search Code Story.
- 2:54It'll be right at the top. Because great startups aren't
- 2:57born, They're forged. One hard moment at a time.
- 3:00Code story.co. Greg, welcome to the show.
- 3:17Thank you so much for joining me.
- 3:19Thanks, Ryan. Great to be here.
- 3:20Absolutely. Now we spoke before, which is
- 3:22rare for me, so I'm excited about that.
- 3:24I know it's going to be a really important conversation.
- 3:27I can't I, I love learning more about your your company every
- 3:30time we do. But I wanted to start with some
- 3:32personal anecdotes because I was doing a deep dive research on
- 3:36Greg Brogger. You know, I want to be prepared
- 3:38what I'm doing, but I couldn't find it.
- 3:41It says GPT and Perplexity and Gemini could not find reliable
- 3:47public sources describing Greg's hobbies, off work, activities or
- 3:51personal interest. So just start us off Greg.
- 3:54What do you like to do when you're not working?
- 3:57That's a good question. So I I live in a really
- 4:00beautiful place up in Northern California in Marin County,
- 4:04where I think mountain biking was actually invented, or at
- 4:06least that's what all the bike shops around here claim.
- 4:08And so they're just miles and miles of trails.
- 4:11And so I, I'm either hiking or biking or at the beach.
- 4:15I just, you know, have half the reason to live here is to do one
- 4:18of those things. So that that's kind of, you
- 4:21know, that's how I clear my head and, you know, get a little
- 4:24exercise and hopefully live a good life here in Marin.
- 4:28Incredible. Now that's kind of a
- 4:29controversial statement because I'm in Colorado and I believe
- 4:33Cresta Bute also lays claim to being the 1st mountain bike
- 4:37company. Either way, I I imagine there's
- 4:41maybe more than one place they thought to put a bike on a
- 4:43mountaintop and and write it down.
- 4:45But yeah, it's a couple of distinguished locations for
- 4:50mountain biking in the country. Yeah, anywhere you've got like a
- 4:53group of guys with extra time on their hands and a few too many
- 4:56bikes. They're starting to tinker, you
- 4:58know, in the 70s. And a trail or two.
- 5:00Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
- 5:03Cool. That's awesome.
- 5:04You know, mountain biking, are you, are you kind of like a
- 5:08cross country guy or you done any of the downhill stuff?
- 5:11I'm, I'm, I'm just a, a recreational, I'm just, you
- 5:14know, happy to stay up on my bike.
- 5:16And so if I can be on the trail and going up and and down
- 5:20without any major injuries, that's, that's about as far.
- 5:23It's like my ski level ability, like I used to be a little bit
- 5:26more aggressive. And my son, we lived in Park
- 5:28City for a number of years. They probably also claimed to
- 5:31have the 1st mountain bike. I'm I'm sure, but and so he's
- 5:35now doing double black diamonds and skiing off trail and wants
- 5:38me to go with him because he wants, you know, a wing man And
- 5:41I'm just that's I have enough risk in my business and start up
- 5:44life stress that I just want to be when I'm on a mountain bike
- 5:47or skiing, I just want to be relaxed and and, you know, kind
- 5:52of enjoying the scenery really. Yeah, well, you, you have a you
- 5:55got a buddy in Colorado because that's my speed.
- 5:57My son, you know, he always wants to go extreme.
- 5:59And I'm like, son, I want to go medium, you know, medium to
- 6:02medium light, you know what I mean?
- 6:04Like. Well, they, they fall and they
- 6:07bounce back up. I fall and my bones shatter.
- 6:09And you know, the same to sewer on a bike.
- 6:11So I, you know, the the risk reward is a different
- 6:14calculation for us, I think at, at our at least at my age, I
- 6:17guess. Totally agree.
- 6:19Totally agree. Amazing.
- 6:20OK, let's start in. Give us a brief overview of your
- 6:24company collective liquidity. Yeah.
- 6:27So Collective is a platform for primarily employees of venture
- 6:34backed companies, late stage venture backed companies to
- 6:37obtain sort of de risk their over concentrated position in
- 6:41their company. If they've got stock options or
- 6:42if they're a founder and the bulk of their net worth is all
- 6:45tied up and one company shares, everyone knows that's not a good
- 6:48idea. No financial advisor will
- 6:50recommend that, but it's really hard to take these illiquid
- 6:54shares, even of really successful companies and, and
- 6:56turn it into a diversified portfolio that can be the basis
- 7:00of a long term financial plan. And so we have a fund that
- 7:04allows people to do it, not just to to exchange shares for a
- 7:08diversified position, but to do it in a tax freeway, which is
- 7:12really what's amazing. Because the difference, you
- 7:15know, for for most founders and employees of these companies
- 7:17between a tax free and a taxable transaction, say a stock sale
- 7:21is, you know, in California, it's 46% same federal tax rate
- 7:25if you don't have long term capital gains, which, which most
- 7:27of our clients don't. So, you know, that's, that's the
- 7:31first thing we do. And the second thing we do is if
- 7:33you need liquidity, if you need cash to buy a house or start a
- 7:36new business or whatever, we partner with a number of
- 7:39financial institutions and have our own program to provide
- 7:42liquidity using not the shares of the company that they come to
- 7:46us with, but the LP interest that they get from the exchange.
- 7:50And because it's a diversified portfolio and it preds quarterly
- 7:52liquidity, the borrowing costs are much lower than any of the
- 7:55single stock loan providers out there.
- 7:58OK. So diversification and
- 7:59liquidity, I should have just started with those two words.
- 8:01That's what we do. Great.
- 8:03And, and the liquidity, so like if, if you did want to, you
- 8:06know, you want a down payment for your house, you know, if, if
- 8:09you're in California, you're still subject to that 46%, is
- 8:12that correct? That's exactly right.
- 8:14Yeah. If you don't have long term
- 8:15capital gains and you know, there's everyone's tax situation
- 8:17is a little bit different. What's their AMT situation?
- 8:19Do they have Isos or Nsos? But you know, even, you know,
- 8:24pretty much in all cases the tax savings is a very relevant
- 8:28number. Plus we don't charge brokerage
- 8:29fees. So it saves you another 4 to 6%.
- 8:32And those differences in our fund compound over time.
- 8:36So the difference between, you know, assign the same value to
- 8:39shares, They have $100 worth of shares, put them in an exchange
- 8:42fund and compare what that looks like 7 years down the road to if
- 8:47you took the same $100 worth of shares, sold them pay tax and
- 8:51then bought diversifying assets. And it's 2 to 1.
- 8:54And that's just because it's just the power of compounding
- 8:56those to those tax savings with, you know, at 46% year one, year
- 9:002, year three, it just is building and building and
- 9:02building. So you can get literally twice
- 9:04the after tax return or after, after tax wealth if you work
- 9:09through an exchange fund rather than a a stock sale.
- 9:12And look, public company executives have known this for a
- 9:14long time. So any really sophisticated
- 9:17financial advisor at Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs or you
- 9:20know, any of these sorts of places, if they have a public
- 9:23company executive will use an exchange fund as a way to
- 9:25diversify them because the tax savings is so powerful.
- 9:29But this collective is the first exchange fund in the private
- 9:32market, the first exchange fund that will accept private company
- 9:34shares into its portfolio. Interesting.
- 9:37And why do you think you're the first?
- 9:39Why is nobody kind of bit off this problem before?
- 9:43Well, it's, it's a complicated problem.
- 9:45There's a lot of attacks and legal structuring that we had to
- 9:47figure out. And it's, it's kind of part of
- 9:49this kind of larger theme, I would argue around the private
- 9:52market generally or the venture ecosystem, if I can still use
- 9:55that word. Because, you know, look, if you
- 9:58go back 10 years, maybe a little bit more now, you know, before
- 10:03private companies started staying private as long as they
- 10:05did. And we had this kind of massive
- 10:06increase in the number and value of unicorns.
- 10:09Venture was not exactly a sleepy backwater, but kind of of
- 10:13private equity. And so if companies are going
- 10:15public, by the time they're, you know, four or five years old and
- 10:17$300 million in market value, then you know, you don't really
- 10:22need wealth management products because by the time they have
- 10:24any wealth, they're already a public company and they can use
- 10:27public company exchange funds and all the other wealth
- 10:29management tools have been around for a long time.
- 10:30But if you then Fast forward and now you have $4 trillion, so do
- 10:35the latest numbers that I see from CB Insights, you know, in
- 10:38aggregate market cap tied up in venture backed companies, then
- 10:42you know, you're in a different world.
- 10:43If they're taking 1012 years, you've got, you know, both
- 10:46demand from employees of these companies, kind of market size
- 10:50that you know, makes it viable to create a platform like what
- 10:54we've created a collective. You know, and you had a really
- 10:59interesting blog post that kind of illustrates this by taking a
- 11:02look at what was it, 2010 to 2015 Series C companies.
- 11:06Maybe maybe pull those statistics out, because I think
- 11:10that really paints the picture well.
- 11:12Yeah, it it's, it's interesting and it's, it's the kind of
- 11:16conclusion just to kind of skip to the end of the word
- 11:18backwards, the kind of conclusion that we all
- 11:19understand that that, you know, holding on to a single stock is
- 11:22much riskier than a diversified portfolio.
- 11:24We all get that. But just the extent of it, the
- 11:26math, until you actually do the math and do the research, it's,
- 11:29it's kind of all this was surprising to me.
- 11:32So yeah, we looked at a cohort of every U.S. company that did a
- 11:37seriously financing between 2010 and 2015.
- 11:41So a decade later, 2025, we looked at how many of those
- 11:46Series C companies had actually exited to reduce value for the
- 11:49employee shareholder for their shares.
- 11:51And it was only 38%. Yet if you had invested in every
- 11:57one of those Series C companies, you'd have over a 5X return on
- 12:00your investment. So you know, it's difficult, I
- 12:04think for for a lot of employees of these companies that love
- 12:07their companies or their obviously if they're a founder,
- 12:09it's their baby and they, you know, things are going really
- 12:11well. They've just closed a financing
- 12:12and you know, they, they feel like, you know, the, the, the
- 12:17Sky's the limit. And in, in a sense it is.
- 12:19But just realistically, that's what every series C, you know,
- 12:24CEO of a series C company thought to themselves when they
- 12:27close that round. And the reality is a decade
- 12:30later, you know, 62% of them had yet to produce value.
- 12:34So, but if you had access or exposure to all of those
- 12:39companies, you would have created real wealth.
- 12:41So we don't typically suggest that a founder or an employee
- 12:45trade all of their shares, right?
- 12:47In fact, I'd say on average, we only want to accept something
- 12:51like 15 to 20% of a customer's shares into the fund.
- 12:54But it creates a floor under your net worth, and it also
- 12:57allows you to create liquidity. And there's all kinds of other
- 12:59wealth management solutions that can be keyed off of our fund,
- 13:03things like don't advise funds and charitable remainder trusts.
- 13:05Again, all of the kind of wealth management strategies that are
- 13:08commonplace for public company executives, but just not been
- 13:12available to private company executives.
- 13:14You've been kind of tied to the mass all or nothing binary
- 13:17outcome. And again, that's that's fine if
- 13:20it's a 3 or 4 year run, but if you're going to spend 1215 years
- 13:23of your life building a company, you really can't afford a miss.
- 13:27Yeah, you need a parachute. You know, a backup plan?
- 13:31Yeah. Yeah, you bet.
- 13:32So is the customer then the company itself for you or is it
- 13:36actually the individual contributors of the company, the
- 13:39the staff? Well, yeah.
- 13:41Well, it's, it's not to be not to be difficult, but the answer
- 13:44is it's kind of both, right. So, you know, certainly the,
- 13:46the, the transaction is with the company or sorry, the
- 13:49transaction is with the employee shareholder.
- 13:51So they take $100 worth of shares in their company and they
- 13:54trade it for $100 LP interest in our fund and everyone else does
- 13:57that that's in the fund. So that's how you get the
- 13:59diversified pool of venture assets.
- 14:01We could talk about how we pick the companies that are eligible
- 14:04for exchange, but every, almost almost every venture backed
- 14:09company at this point has the ability to accept or deny A
- 14:14secondary transaction or or to accept or deny a new shareholder
- 14:17under the cap table. And even where they don't, we
- 14:20don't really want to do an exchange or, or work with a
- 14:22company where we're not seen as a value add player to the cap
- 14:25table. We're not sort of working with
- 14:27the company to enhance the value of their equity compensation
- 14:29plans. So, you know, we, we need to
- 14:32basically win both audiences and the way it most often works.
- 14:36Like we, we work in our network and we have an amazing
- 14:38investment committee and board and others making introductions
- 14:41and we're working with now nearly 30 odd companies with,
- 14:44with our program. But very frequently what happens
- 14:48is a, a mid level executive will find us on the website or find
- 14:53us one way or the other, a referral or something, and we'll
- 14:57enter into a transaction and all of the transactions before
- 15:00they're obviously consummated, before they're closed, get
- 15:03submitted to the company. And frequently what happens is
- 15:05the company will say, look, this is different.
- 15:07What's an exchange phone? We haven't seen something like
- 15:09this in the private market. How does it work?
- 15:11And so that conversation happens with the CFO and the CFO
- 15:14frequently will bring the CEO and thinks, you know, most of
- 15:17the time, at least the great majority of the time, I think
- 15:19this is a great idea, but we could really use this.
- 15:20This helps our, you know, helps our employees in a, in a very
- 15:24real and unique way. And so that that then kicks off
- 15:30a company discussion about a program.
- 15:31And so that's where we'll start talking about having the company
- 15:35direct us to allocate whatever exchange eligibility we have for
- 15:39that company amongst employees at their discretion.
- 15:43How does kind of vesting periods fit into this?
- 15:45So if I was, if I was granted, you know $100 and equity in the
- 15:49company and but I have 36 months for it to fully fast, do you
- 15:52have to wait that period before it's eligible?
- 15:54Yeah. So, so you know, there, there
- 15:57are some players out there that get super creative with, you
- 16:00know, sort of ways to work with unvested shares or to work
- 16:05around the bylaws of the company or or, you know, find ways to
- 16:07basically by contract lock up shares rather than have the
- 16:11shares actually transfer in their name to their font.
- 16:14But we, we don't, we don't do that one it, it's not generally
- 16:18viewed favorably by the companies that we want to make
- 16:20our partners. And it just creates uncertainty
- 16:24because you don't actually know that the shares are going to
- 16:27vest. Or if you're doing like a
- 16:28forward contract or something, you know, super creative, you
- 16:31know, you've just got all these, you've got, you've got a
- 16:33contract. But if the shares don't get
- 16:34delivered, you know you're going to chase people down.
- 16:37So we we haven't resorted to that I guess.
- 16:41Yeah. So we, we own, we, we own all of
- 16:44the shares that are in our portfolio outright.
- 16:47Love it. So this this seems like such a
- 16:50it, you know, the no brainer term gets thrown around all the
- 16:53time, but like this is a win win, win for everybody kind of
- 16:56product. What were people doing before?
- 16:58If you guys were the first one, What what were somebody doing?
- 17:01If they came up, you know, super cash short and they're you know,
- 17:04they they're a multi millionaire on paper, but like they can't,
- 17:07you know, they can't get rid of the stock.
- 17:09Like what were they doing? Well, you had sort of two
- 17:12primary alternatives and both of them are, are still around in
- 17:15the market today, right. And so actually, you know, we,
- 17:17we started much of the, the team that's a collective with me has
- 17:20been with me and with, you know, one or two companies in the
- 17:23private market space previously. And so, you know, we, we started
- 17:26the platform shares post back in 2009, which was the first
- 17:30basically marketplace, first place where buyers and sellers
- 17:32could get together and trade private market or, you know,
- 17:35venture backed companies pre IPO shares.
- 17:38And that, you know, that made sense right at the beginning of
- 17:41a market, you pick the simplest kind of form of liquidity or
- 17:45financial product because it's nascent and anything more
- 17:49complicated isn't necessary. And so we just connected buyers
- 17:53and sellers in charge to Commission and that's still
- 17:55around. And that and that's, you know,
- 17:56by far the by volume where most people get liquidity.
- 18:01And so you know that that that's perfectly viable and, and for
- 18:05some, some use cases, that's still the best way to do it,
- 18:08right. So depending on your tax
- 18:09situation, if you don't get the full tax benefit of what we do
- 18:13and you want to maximize immediate cash, then sometimes a
- 18:19stock sales is the right way to go.
- 18:21And we frequently, you know, our, our customer service reps
- 18:24are really take a consultants type approach.
- 18:27And so we refer people all the time to Forge or Zimbato or any
- 18:31of the, you know, private market platforms.
- 18:33But the other approach, just the downside to that approach is 1,
- 18:37there's a brokerage Commission, which is pretty sizable.
- 18:39And two, it's fully taxable, which, as I said, you know, over
- 18:44the long term can make a big difference.
- 18:46The other solution are are called the, the single stock
- 18:48lenders and those, you know, basically they will lend against
- 18:53your shares. I mean that the challenge for,
- 18:56for those, you know, our customers of those platforms are
- 18:59that they're, they're quite expensive and they're expensive
- 19:02because the effectively the lender who's lending against
- 19:05these shares using your single company shares as collateral is
- 19:09taking a great deal of risk and has to do a great deal of work,
- 19:12right. So they've got single stock
- 19:14concentration risk, they have to value the company.
- 19:18So we, we can talk about how we value companies in our
- 19:20portfolio, but it's mostly done algorithmically.
- 19:23So we always have an immediate price for a potential customer,
- 19:27whereas a single stock lender has to do a kind of a
- 19:29traditional underwriting of the company has to get financial
- 19:31information from the company in order to feel comfortable.
- 19:34And so it it's time consuming and expensive and that's and,
- 19:39and typically because there's also significant risk that loan
- 19:43to value ratios, the amount of cash you can get in a loan is
- 19:46relatively speaking quite low. Yeah, fascinating.
- 19:51So, OK, so shares post is now forged, did you fully exit that
- 19:56company or is that are they connected?
- 19:59So no, I well, I was on the board after the merger until it
- 20:02went public and I'm still a bit of a shareholder.
- 20:08So I've been watching its fortunes rise and fall and
- 20:12slightly rise again. So hopefully it finds a good
- 20:15home. But yeah, you know, I think
- 20:17that. Of all the trading platforms
- 20:19that we look at and you know what what are the benefits of I
- 20:22mentioned how we value shares. So we get pricing data from most
- 20:26of if not all of the kind of major market trading platforms.
- 20:30So by API and data feeding, including from from Forge.
- 20:33And so we can kind of see relatively speaking, where the
- 20:38what each of the platform does in terms of volume, like what
- 20:41companies they're trading the most in how much they're
- 20:43trading. And so we can say, you know,
- 20:45with some assurance that that forge is, you know, typically or
- 20:48usually in most quarters, you know, the number one trading
- 20:53marketplace at least by volume of transactions, if not by
- 20:55dollar volume. So, you know, I, I think that's,
- 20:59and that was the logic behind putting forge, which at the time
- 21:03was called equidate and shares most together, which was to
- 21:05create the kind of the single largest marketplace hopes that,
- 21:09you know, it would generate network effects and and, you
- 21:13know, become the dominant player.
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- 22:24think. Yeah.
- 22:26What's your feeling on venture capital in general?
- 22:29Like you said, there's, there's new trends where, you know,
- 22:31companies are taking longer to IPO, which is probably annoying
- 22:36for retail investors. Now you have non profit
- 22:39organizations that are going in for profit.
- 22:42Now suddenly, you know, there's a there's a lot of restructuring
- 22:46going on. And I've also heard that like
- 22:49people feel like there's too much money in venture capital
- 22:52and so there's not enough basically opportunity for people
- 22:56to to get returns. Like, what's your kind of take
- 22:58of Silicon Valley right now? Well, it's, I mean, Silicon
- 23:02Valley is, is was for, for many years kind of concentrated, you
- 23:08know, on Sand Hill Rd. And so that's, you know, I, I
- 23:11think if you looked at the sort of market share of venture
- 23:12backed companies that were funded out of literally Sand
- 23:15Hill Rd. VCs 10 years ago, I don't know
- 23:18what the number was, but it was quite high, 7080%.
- 23:21But with the, you know, the, the growth from, you know, over the
- 23:25last 10 years and the number of private venture backed companies
- 23:28and their size and the amount, the demand for capital, you
- 23:31know, the ecosystem has exploded, you know, both
- 23:33geographically. So it's a, it's a really a
- 23:36global phenomenon. So I was in Brazil recently and
- 23:39there's a whole slew of, you know, investment institutional
- 23:43investors looking for access and have found various way to deploy
- 23:46capital and the amount of capital.
- 23:49So the size of the funds that are deploying.
- 23:51And if you're going to, you know, just think about SpaceX
- 23:54alone, the amount of capital it consumes, you know, it's, it's
- 23:57it's own, its own market, it's its own industry, basically.
- 24:01And so capital has flooded into those opportunities.
- 24:04And I, you know, I also got to go back to the, the, the, the
- 24:07fundamental shift that started this whole market.
- 24:11So if you go back to 2009, what was the first company that kind
- 24:14of pursue this strategy of staying private logger was
- 24:17Google, followed by Facebook, followed by LinkedIn and, and
- 24:20Twitter, whereas, you know, the first 2-3 years.
- 24:22And that's what I kind of, you know, came up with.
- 24:26The idea to start shares post was just like something had
- 24:28changed because it used to be the case that founders would try
- 24:32to get public as fast as they possibly could, almost like that
- 24:34was the destination to ring the bell.
- 24:36The New York Stock Exchange. That was the victory lap.
- 24:39And what came after was kind of an afterthought.
- 24:41And to see the Google founders dragged into the private markets
- 24:45by the SEC was a sign. And then when others followed
- 24:50and I, you know, when you look at it, it, it's, it's a whole
- 24:54bunch. It's like a perfect storm of
- 24:56things that are driving this, this, it's regulation.
- 24:58So with Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd Frank made it much more
- 25:01difficult to be a public company.
- 25:03It was programmatic trading so that if you missed your
- 25:06earnings, you know, in a matter of, you know, an hour of the
- 25:08earnings announcement, you could lose a third of the value of
- 25:10your shares if you missed your earnings enough.
- 25:13It was the consolidation of the investment bank.
- 25:15So there's all these structural causes and none of them have
- 25:17changed, right? So it's not easier to be a
- 25:19public company. It's not, you know, the, the,
- 25:23it's not less of a problem if you can't predict your earnings,
- 25:28if you're in a high growth mode. And at the same time, it's, it's
- 25:32just as difficult to be a public company.
- 25:33But it's become much easier to be a giant multi billion dollar
- 25:35private company because there's so much more capital that's now
- 25:38in funds that are focused and dedicated to late stage private
- 25:41companies. And there's so much more
- 25:43liquidity and there's so much more data that I, you know, I,
- 25:49I, I, I hesitate to ever say it's never going to change.
- 25:52Maybe the, the pendulum swings back towards public companies,
- 25:56but I don't see anything but sort of an accelerating trend.
- 25:59And I, you know, one of the most, you know, interesting
- 26:01things and I think would be kind of the next phase of this
- 26:03market's growth is 4 O 1K plans could now accept private equity
- 26:09in or we'll, we'll can now invest in private equity.
- 26:12And so as a conduit for retail investors like all the major
- 26:15funds, both kind of traditional private equity and and venture
- 26:20are all thinking about new distribution strategies to
- 26:23capture more assets and deploy them into this, you know, pre
- 26:27IPO space. Are you, you saying then that
- 26:32like it's a, it's healthy or it because of the complications of
- 26:36like trending for like longer and longer privatized companies
- 26:40and, and, and also less diversification?
- 26:43I mean, with AI basically there's just like a $100 billion
- 26:47moats around a lot of these companies where there's not
- 26:49really opportunity for challengers or or competition.
- 26:53Well, yeah, it was. So just to take the, the first
- 26:56question first, like is, is it healthy?
- 26:58Like I, I, you know, it, it seems like what generally
- 27:02markets do is they grow in a particular direction until they
- 27:05get out over their skis and then there's some cataclysmic
- 27:08problem, a market crash or, you know, I'm just thinking what,
- 27:11what led to the current regime, right?
- 27:14We're talking about, you know, Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd Frank
- 27:18were a reaction to Enron, right? Right.
- 27:20Was it was massive fraud. So there was massive legislation
- 27:22passed to curtail public companies and, and, and increase
- 27:27the amount of disclosure and the liability for management and
- 27:31directors. And so I, I think it would take
- 27:33something like that to reverse the course.
- 27:35So I, I, you know, it's, it's, it also depends healthy for who,
- 27:40right? So it's very healthy for the
- 27:41VCs, It's very healthy for the people that can participate in
- 27:44the market, maybe in a lot of complaints.
- 27:47And the reason why this change with the four O 1K accounts have
- 27:50happened is, you know, if you look at companies that are
- 27:54growing, right? So tech companies worth more
- 27:57than a billion dollars, I think it's something like 70% of them
- 28:00are now private growth. Sorry, private companies, not
- 28:02public companies. So even if you're a retail
- 28:05investor, you know, call it a blue collar investor, if that's
- 28:10the right term, I'm coining and you're trying to save for your
- 28:14retirement and you want growth. If you invest in the public
- 28:16companies, you're basically investing in like 5 or 6 tech
- 28:19companies. If you look at the NASDAQ,
- 28:20that's like some crazy percentage of concentration of
- 28:23the total value where and they're not growing at anything
- 28:26nearly like the, the, the rate that the private growth
- 28:29companies and venture backed companies are.
- 28:30So you're giving them access to assets and investments that they
- 28:34really need. But it is, you know, the public
- 28:37markets and the, the transparency and the rules that
- 28:40those companies are subjected to do protect investors, right?
- 28:43That's the, that's half the job of the SEC is to protect
- 28:46investors from fraud. And it's a lot harder to do in
- 28:48the private market space than it is in the public.
- 28:51So it's, you know, people are going to get, people are going
- 28:54to get burned. There's there's no, no way
- 28:56around it. But maybe that is still net
- 28:58healthy for the overall capital market because it provides
- 29:01access to companies people need access to.
- 29:04You know, it, it's frustrating to me.
- 29:06I, I think, I mean, you know, obviously, you know, the, the
- 29:12accredited investor, the bar is actually pretty low, but why not
- 29:17just disappear the bar and give people the same opportunities
- 29:21where you can do these like little microtransactions.
- 29:23You know, you can pay, spend 10 bucks on that up and coming
- 29:27startup that you want. I think it would be healthy for
- 29:29the startups, it'd be healthy for, for democracy, honestly.
- 29:33I mean, it's kind of like hypocritical that like the SEC
- 29:37wants to protect the the investors while they're shoving
- 29:40sports betting apps down everyone's throat.
- 29:42Like day after day. It's like, well, how much
- 29:44protection are we we getting here?
- 29:46You know, well, and this is I, I actually, I started my career as
- 29:50a securities lawyer. It was very brief briefly that
- 29:53at one of the Valley law firms, Wilson Sonsini.
- 29:55And so I, I spent a lot of time as a securities lawyer.
- 29:58And so we spent a lot of time, you know, studying in law
- 30:01school, etcetera. And look at the SEC, it's often
- 30:05misunderstood. Everyone thinks of them as
- 30:06solely as investor protection, but they really have two, two
- 30:09goals that are supposed to be sort of equal in, in priority.
- 30:12One is protecting investors, but the other is efficient capital
- 30:16markets. And so it's obviously these two
- 30:19goals are in, you know, there's a tension between them.
- 30:22And I think, you know, the, the, the staff and, and legislation
- 30:26is, has attempted to do some part of what you've said, which
- 30:29is, you know, for example, there's a crowdfunding rules
- 30:31where you don't need to be an accredited investor.
- 30:34And, and so for a certain investment sizes and certain
- 30:36sorts of companies and certain, you know, offerings of shares,
- 30:40the rules are greatly abbreviated.
- 30:44But you know, the, the fundamental point is, you know,
- 30:47and this came out of literally the Great Depression, the stock
- 30:50market crash, right, when people lost homes and obviously
- 30:54catastrophic financial harm done to many, many families.
- 30:59The thought was, you know, companies can take advantage of
- 31:03individual unsophisticated investors, right?
- 31:05People who don't have it, it has their day job to study these
- 31:09stocks. And so how do you protect them?
- 31:12How do you find what, what's a simple test that you can
- 31:15actually make scalable across, you know, hundreds of thousands
- 31:17or millions of investors? And the thought was, well, net
- 31:20worth. That's something we can track
- 31:22easily. And if you've got 1,000,000
- 31:23bucks, then probably, you know, a little something about
- 31:25finance, a little something about what you're doing when you
- 31:28invest in a company. But if you don't and you're just
- 31:30investing out of your paycheck and you have no net worth,
- 31:33probably that means you don't have a lot of financial
- 31:36expertise and maybe we can protect you from yourself.
- 31:40And so obviously that's very controversial.
- 31:42It's probably, you know, there's a lot of good that's come out of
- 31:44that and a lot of bad. And no one's come up with a
- 31:47better rule that I know of. Maybe AI will do it.
- 31:50Maybe you'll have to pass, you know, a financial investment
- 31:54exam administered by an AI and before they'll let you deploy
- 31:58your dollars. But yeah.
- 31:59Well, you know, I mean, it makes sense, but maybe I'm just bitter
- 32:03about all these sports betting apps.
- 32:05It's like, yeah, well, they're like, yeah, you seem like you
- 32:07like to take some risks. Well, why don't you go bet on
- 32:10the Portland Trail Blazers? I believe Chauncey Billups has
- 32:13some good card games for you. Yeah, well, yeah, is investing
- 32:17entertainment is like betting is I mean, yeah.
- 32:19And look, these rules in the legislation the governor, the
- 32:22financial markets are not passed evenly or or necessarily even
- 32:27Terry say responsibly, right. They it's in the patch works
- 32:30and, you know, major legislation that rewrites these kinds of
- 32:33roles happens, you know with, you know, rarely and
- 32:38unpredictably. Like I, I remember, you know,
- 32:42some of the, the, you know, major loosenings of back in kind
- 32:48of the 2009 to 2010 time frame, which made it much easier where
- 32:53basically if you were raising money for a private company, you
- 32:55still had to, you still could only sell shares to accredited
- 33:00investors, but for the first time you could advertise to them
- 33:04and that had to be done. I mean, that was a major shift
- 33:06because I really significantly expanded the, you know, the
- 33:09ability of founders, particularly ones that didn't
- 33:11have Sand Hill Rd. backing to go out online and say, I'm a good
- 33:15company. This is, you know, I'm raising
- 33:17money for this idea. And it was part of the
- 33:20crowdfunding, same group of legislation, but it was nobody
- 33:24expected it to pass. And it was just this in the last
- 33:27like 72 hours before it went to a vote.
- 33:29Just some, you know, I think actually the Angelus platform
- 33:33was a significant, you know, backer or sponsor of that bill
- 33:38and made some kind of miracle happen that nobody expected.
- 33:40And the rules changed. And it's had dramatic effect 10
- 33:44years later. But you know, you can't predict
- 33:46the next time that's going to happen.
- 33:47Totally fascinating. So there's probably not an
- 33:53insignificant number of listeners to this podcast and or
- 33:56subscribers to the newsletter that might be in a good position
- 33:59for collective. So when, when is the right time
- 34:02for a company to to start consider collective for their
- 34:06for their shareholders and their staff?
- 34:08Yeah. Yeah.
- 34:09So, well, I'll just there's there's a couple, I'll just talk
- 34:13about it from from, from from our perspective a little bit and
- 34:16then we can talk about it from the company's perspective.
- 34:18So with any exchange fund, kind of the most critical problem to
- 34:22solve is negative selection bias.
- 34:25So if we just accept shares of any company, private company
- 34:28that comes to us, then you can imagine the company, you know,
- 34:32the, the shareholders that are most worried about the future of
- 34:34the company are the ones that are going to come exchange.
- 34:35So we kind of do it in reverse. We define the companies that are
- 34:39eligible, excuse me, for exchange.
- 34:44And if you're not on that list of eligible companies, then you
- 34:48know, we'll, we'll obviously talk to you and we'll put your
- 34:50company in front of our investment committee.
- 34:52But typically, you know, we, we just don't accept the, the
- 34:56shares from those companies into the fund.
- 34:58And that gives anyone who's thinking about exchanging a
- 35:00certain level of comfort that there's a quality bar.
- 35:02And you know, the things that we, you know, that make a
- 35:05company eligible for SO1, they have to have a market cap in the
- 35:10most recent round of over 400 million, but our average market
- 35:13cap is actually 1.6 billion. They need to have, you know,
- 35:16typically look for revenue over 100 million, I think average
- 35:19revenue for our companies. So we're at 2:50 to 300 million.
- 35:22So these are really later stage companies that we think will
- 35:25have a likely exit in three to five years or we're not a Series
- 35:28A kind of platform, a Series B. We're not a startup platform.
- 35:33And that's just because we, you know, the, the predictability of
- 35:36the value of a company becomes much greater as it becomes as
- 35:38it's got real revenue and performance metrics.
- 35:41And it's a little further along. And also, you know, the again,
- 35:46nailed on head we we need vested options.
- 35:48We right to so company that's only two or three years old,
- 35:52none of the employees have any vested options, so they can't
- 35:55really work with us yet. So, you know, I think probably
- 35:58the sweet spot is here 5 or 6 or 7 depending upon the kind of the
- 36:01growth trajectory. And there's about 100 and now
- 36:05thirty 140 odd companies that we've approved and we're for
- 36:09exchange and we're trying to reach out to those companies and
- 36:11introduce ourselves have been successful with about 30 of them
- 36:16and being on boarded as a shareholder and providing our
- 36:20diversification and liquidity solutions to their employees.
- 36:24Yeah. Does this is this sounds like
- 36:26the the actual members of the exchange fund, the different
- 36:29businesses are kind of like interchangeable as customers
- 36:32too. Is that kind of the ideas that,
- 36:34like the customers in the fund, become kind of synonymous?
- 36:39Well, yeah, I mean, so in a sense, I mean there's a really
- 36:42interesting community that we weren't really focused on when
- 36:45we started it. But what we realized is the LP's
- 36:49in our fund are the executives from the companies, the venture
- 36:53backed companies that are IC, some really smart law, you know,
- 36:57experienced venture investors pick as their sort of dream
- 37:00portfolio. So we look at Sequoia,
- 37:02Andreessen, Benchmark, Excel, we pick the we think of as the best
- 37:07companies across all of the vintages, across all of their
- 37:10funds. So it's really kind of a
- 37:11portfolio of winners and you know, the the most cutting edge,
- 37:17most successful, most, you know, most innovative companies in the
- 37:21space. So the club that we're kind of
- 37:24forming of founders and CEOs and CFOs and, you know, other
- 37:29executives is really somewhat unique.
- 37:33I mean, there's a handful of like Sequoia and Andreessen
- 37:35obviously have, you know, enough size and enough companies that
- 37:37they have, you know, our superior network.
- 37:40But what we're building is, I think, really interesting
- 37:43because when our IC, for example, goes to think about,
- 37:47you know, investment in a defense area where, you know,
- 37:50we're now talking to a group of LP's that are already in the
- 37:54fund. Yeah, that have deep experience
- 37:57and know which companies are thriving and which companies are
- 37:59not. So there's a feedback loop of
- 38:02sorts that comes into the investment decisions or really
- 38:06the eligibility decisions for the fund.
- 38:08And we're going to see what we can do kind of more in the
- 38:10future to kind of connect the LP's within the fund so that
- 38:13they can be, you know, kind of bounce ideas off each other.
- 38:16Great again, it seems like it's this tight little club that How
- 38:20do I weasel my way into it? No problem.
- 38:24Well, Ryan, you are always welcome.
- 38:27Amazing. Greg, you've had a bunch of
- 38:30success over the years. What keeps you motivated?
- 38:33Why? Why?
- 38:35It sounds like you kicked off this company in 2021.
- 38:37Is that correct? Well, I think we did our first
- 38:41external transactions in 2023. So we were building in 2022,
- 38:44kind of call it stealth mode, sort of, although it's kind of
- 38:47the nuclear winter of venture capital in the secondary market.
- 38:50So everyone was sort of in stealth mode because there
- 38:52wasn't anything other than stealth mode.
- 38:55But yeah, it's, you know, I, I think for, for a collective, you
- 39:03know, we, we merged shares post and, and for or to with equidate
- 39:09to crate forage. You know, I, I, I'd kind of gone
- 39:13as far as I wanted to or thought I really had any kind of value
- 39:16to add to that business model to that.
- 39:18Again, as I said, it's the most simple, you know, any kind of
- 39:20marketplace, it's just connect buyer and seller and take
- 39:22Commission for doing, for, for doing that.
- 39:26And that was the model we started with.
- 39:28That made sense. But then as the size of the
- 39:31market and all, you know, the data and the number of
- 39:33participants, you know, mushroomed, it seemed like there
- 39:36might be better or at least better solutions for at least
- 39:38some kinds of problems than were in the market.
- 39:41And so the exchange fund is a good example.
- 39:43And So what motivates me is a desire still to solve a problem
- 39:47that doesn't really feel solved. So if you're even in the most
- 39:50successful private growth companies, it's not easy to
- 39:54create a financial plan or diversify or give to charity or,
- 39:59you know, any, any of the things that you would want to do with
- 40:01you. You're a paper millionaire.
- 40:03But you know, so often people can't buy a house or whatever.
- 40:06I mean, it's kind of cliche use cases.
- 40:09And so you know there's a problem that still needs
- 40:11solving. And I just, I like making like
- 40:15any founder, like any startup guy, I like making things work
- 40:19that have never worked before or be able to bring something new
- 40:21that works, that solves the problem in a different way.
- 40:23It's a zero to 1. And I just kind of gravitate
- 40:26towards that. And once you start on an idea,
- 40:29then you know, you know it, it takes a lot for you to walk away
- 40:32and say, yeah, it just doesn't, this just doesn't work.
- 40:35You know, you iterate, you, you pivot you, you know, Bob, you
- 40:38believe you, you know, you figure out how to, to get there.
- 40:40So hopefully that's what we're doing at Collective now.
- 40:43I mean, you're, you're surrounded by so many zeros.
- 40:46I mean, the, the folks that you, you work with, your customers,
- 40:50your clients, your neighbors might be some of the most
- 40:53successful wealthy people that have ever existed on planet
- 40:56Earth. How, how does that kind of
- 40:58affect your idea of success and wealth?
- 41:01And and is there some kind of like a comparison?
- 41:06Well, I, I, yeah, I mean, that's, that's the answer.
- 41:10An interesting question is I, you know, get a little bit
- 41:15older, the more senior in my career.
- 41:17It's, you know, when I kind of think about like how much is
- 41:19enough? And so I, I have had some good
- 41:22fortune and early, early on in my career.
- 41:25So I, I've, you know, wealth or your wealth is always relative
- 41:30to your expenses. How much wealth do you need is
- 41:33sort of depends on your lifestyle.
- 41:34My lifestyle is relatively modest compared to some of my
- 41:36friends who have more exotic existences.
- 41:41It's fun to go to their parties. But yeah, it's, it's a
- 41:43different, I have a different set of needs.
- 41:46So I, I, you know, I just think it's, it's kind of a losing game
- 41:49to compare yourself to others when wealth, wealth wise,
- 41:53because there's always somebody who has more, There's always
- 41:55somebody who has less. There's only, you know, one
- 41:57person who can say that there's nobody who has more.
- 42:00So unless you don't want to compete with Elon, you know,
- 42:03there's no point in comparing yourself to others wealth.
- 42:06And so I think it's do you have enough?
- 42:09Do you have enough to to, you know, support the, your, your
- 42:13lifestyle and, you know, let you sleep at night?
- 42:16And then it's what problems are you working on and who are you
- 42:19solving those problems with? You know, who's in the trenches
- 42:21with you? So that's, I mean, the other
- 42:22thing is I want to make collective successful for myself
- 42:25and for our customers, but also for our employees.
- 42:27You know, there's a, there's a leap of faith that people take
- 42:29when they join a start up. And nothing would make me
- 42:33happier than producing a, a good result for them, not just
- 42:38financially, but there's there's nothing more fun than creating
- 42:41something that's never existed and making it succeed.
- 42:44That's really satisfying. I agree.
- 42:48Yeah, they're winters are rare, you know, That's what makes it
- 42:52so sweet, I suppose. Yeah, 38%.
- 42:58Yeah, 38 percent, 15 years later.
- 43:01If you get to a series C. Yeah, exactly.
- 43:04Cool. Are you ready for the Lightning
- 43:06round, Greg? Fire away.
- 43:08I didn't know there was a lightning round, but I'm
- 43:09equipped. Let me get some water before you
- 43:11do brace. Yourself.
- 43:12Brace yourself so the I'm locked.
- 43:15In. The the listeners this podcast
- 43:18love business ideas. You got any business ideas
- 43:20rattling around in there that won't go away?
- 43:24Well, if I did, I wouldn't share them.
- 43:26I mean, although the idea I'd love the most is what I'm going
- 43:28to do next. But well, you know, I guess here
- 43:32this is self-serving, I'm sure. But look, I think just focusing
- 43:36again on collective, like once you have an exchange fund, the
- 43:39ability to do something with that exchange fund because
- 43:41you're taking basically the alchemy or magic, what we do is
- 43:43you take single stock position, which you can't do much with.
- 43:47If it's private and liquid, there's no information about it
- 43:50and you're turning it into a portfolio that is transparent,
- 43:52provides liquidity and so you can do a whole bunch of
- 43:55different things about it. So again, I think for example,
- 43:57you know, charitable remainder trusts and donor, let's talk
- 44:00about donor revised funds, the ability to take $100 worth of
- 44:04shares contributed or exchange it for $100 LP interests and
- 44:07then contribute that $100 LP interest to an exchange fund and
- 44:11take $100 write off that you get to take over the next five
- 44:14years. So I think it's, there's a bunch
- 44:16of financial products and innovation that I think is going
- 44:18to happen for or in the private market, whether it's keyed off
- 44:22our exchange fund or, or, or others.
- 44:24And it's just, there's so much capital trapped and so much
- 44:29demands the people that, that, that hold these shares in these
- 44:33companies to be able to have a financial plan.
- 44:37And what we do is part of it. But I think that it's, there's
- 44:40a, you know, any number of solutions that in the next 5
- 44:43years, we're going to see and particularly as the, you know,
- 44:46the Morgan Stanley's and Goldman Sachs's of the world, you know,
- 44:50start to embrace these kind of platforms and, and bring it to
- 44:54their distribution channel. I think it's going to grow very
- 44:57quickly because there's so much demand and and such a large
- 45:00volume of assets that will follow.
- 45:03Why are the kind of, you know, traditional players?
- 45:06Why are they slow? What?
- 45:08What are they concerned about? So I think they're slow and in
- 45:12part just because the the market is just coming out of a full on
- 45:15reset. So 2021 we had this meteoric
- 45:18rise, 2022Q1, we had a meteoric crash and 4050% reduction and
- 45:23kind of everybody in the venture ecosystem just was sidelined as
- 45:27I said by this kind of nuclear winter of venture capital.
- 45:29So it's only 2024-2025 that there seems to be, you know, a
- 45:36healthy marketplace is starting to develop again.
- 45:38And I think one of the major signs that this, you know,
- 45:42things are going to get busy again as Morgan Stanley just
- 45:45announced an acquisition of Equity Zen, which is one of the
- 45:48major competitors to forge. And so, you know, when 1 big
- 45:51player buys one part of the waterfront, all the other big
- 45:54players don't want to be left out and, and kind of, you know,
- 45:58feel like they're, they're too far behind.
- 45:59So I think that they will get busy again.
- 46:01But the other thing is, you know, big players are always,
- 46:06you know, concerned about risk and liability.
- 46:08They have more to lose than they have potentially to gain by
- 46:11trying out a risky new product. So at least my belief is that
- 46:16they're, you know, we're we're talking with, you know, all the
- 46:19usual suspects. As you would expect, Everyone
- 46:22loves the idea of what we're doing at collective just because
- 46:24they've seen just for example, in the public markets, you're
- 46:27probably the largest player in the exchange fund space is Eaton
- 46:30Vance. They have announced they have
- 46:33over $500 billion in assets under management.
- 46:36And so you know, it's, it's not we're a new product in the
- 46:39private market, but we're a proven product as a, as a
- 46:43financial solution. And so, but as I said, there's
- 46:47all kinds of legal and and tax structuring that we had to do to
- 46:49create the fund in the private market space.
- 46:51So I think they'd like to see it scale little.
- 46:54They'd like to see it have a little bit of operating history,
- 46:57you know, make sure that companies embrace it.
- 46:59And, you know, we'll get to a place where, frankly, they'll
- 47:02either partner with us or copy us.
- 47:04And that's just the nature of a competitive marketplace.
- 47:07But we're running as kind of far and as fast as we can until that
- 47:10happens. Yeah, well, it's great.
- 47:13You know, when money's moving around and people are jumping
- 47:16in. I mean, I remember looking at
- 47:18Pitch Book and it was like, you know, 2021, there's probably
- 47:21like 4 or 5000 deals getting closed per month.
- 47:23And then like a few months later I looked and it was like 118.
- 47:27And if I was like, Oh my gosh, it really was a new.
- 47:32But if you, if you think about it like just how much further
- 47:34the market has to go in terms of, you know, expansion and,
- 47:38and, and deepening, right. If, let's say there's, I think
- 47:42the, the biggest estimate I saw for 2024 total secondary volume
- 47:46was 150 billion, sort of in that range.
- 47:50If you're looking at a $4 trillion asset class, 150
- 47:53billion as the numerator, 4 trillion as the denominator.
- 47:56We're, we're just scratching the surface and you're, the question
- 47:59would be, well, what percentage of the aggregate market cap
- 48:01would trade if it could trade like woodchuck if it could?
- 48:06And so nobody knows, right? If it was a perfectly efficient
- 48:09capital market and you could, you know, it was like the NASDAQ
- 48:12Public Market where you could just trade your shares.
- 48:13But you can look at the NASDAQ Public Market small cap index or
- 48:17an index of small cap companies. On average, they turn over 100%
- 48:20of their market cap in a year. So if we're at 3 or 4% today,
- 48:26maybe it doesn't go to 100. But it, you know, the demand for
- 48:29liquidity is obviously many times the amount of liquidity
- 48:32that's actually getting satisfied.
- 48:34And as more capital comes to the market, 4O1K plans and more
- 48:37retail investors come into the market.
- 48:40As I said, I don't I don't see a reversal of the trend.
- 48:43Yeah, well, and just like the products now are so much more
- 48:46exciting, suddenly out of nowhere, everything's AI,
- 48:50robots, quantum computing, nuclear reactors.
- 48:53It's just like what's going on? It's great.
- 48:56Yeah, no, I, I, it's, it's great.
- 48:58It's a, it's a little scary because it's so much less
- 49:00predictable than it used to be, you know, particularly, as you
- 49:03say, just, you know, mapping AI and quantum computing, which is,
- 49:06you know, nowhere near anything I have expertise in.
- 49:08But you know, the, the effects of either of them is
- 49:12revolutionary and the combined effects of them, you would
- 49:15think, no, nobody knows what comes next.
- 49:17So last pitch for the importance of diversification.
- 49:21Like if you think you, you can see, you know, five years out
- 49:25into the future for your company, any company, you're,
- 49:28you're smarter or braver than I. And maybe you should consider,
- 49:33you know, hedging your bets a little bit and, and just accept
- 49:36the unpredictability of a, a technology landscape that's
- 49:40changing like it's never been changing before.
- 49:42It's at least in my lifetime. I love it.
- 49:46Well, in conclusion, I what I what I'm going to do is pitch
- 49:48you a product. You see a lot of products, you
- 49:50see a lot of investment capital getting moved around.
- 49:53Now I got a winner here, but I'd love to hear your take along
- 49:56these lines. AI robots.
- 49:59But you know, what people really like is personal workout
- 50:02equipment. You know, So what I'm thinking
- 50:04is that give me a couple of sets of arms, you know, kind of like
- 50:08Doc Ock, but just two arms that can carry on what I'm doing that
- 50:11way all day long. I could just be doing curls, you
- 50:14know, really work on the bis and tries.
- 50:17So like I have robot arms that are like giving me like typing
- 50:20my my emails. It's bringing me, you know, my
- 50:23snacks and my drinks, But meanwhile I can get my human
- 50:26arms like, super jacked. Yeah.
- 50:28And I take it is the AI then also your, your, your coach, I
- 50:31take it it's talking about how many sets you need to do.
- 50:33I was actually just reading about this in the New York Times
- 50:35a couple days ago about, you know, people starting to use AI
- 50:38to train for marathons. Yeah.
- 50:41Right. Because it's the voice in your
- 50:42ear. Yeah.
- 50:43Voice in your ear is, you know, you know, 100% of the time is,
- 50:47is attentive to exactly what you're doing, always available
- 50:50and, you know, frankly, super smart, smarter than most
- 50:52personal trainers or more reliable.
- 50:54Yeah, So, yeah, I think the combination of that, yeah.
- 50:57But I guess the, the other thing I'm reading in terms of, you
- 51:00know, or at least some, you know, I, I, I think you can it
- 51:03just with the dictation and voice recognition, you can do
- 51:06most of most of your typing without typing anymore.
- 51:10But the, you know, get me a creatine shake from the
- 51:14refrigerator. Is is it's the hands problem,
- 51:17right? Isn't that what they're saying?
- 51:19It's this, it's the challenge of gripping.
- 51:21And so there's, I was also reading a little bit about that,
- 51:24like it takes like three or four tries.
- 51:25It's kind of funny to watch a robot try to pick up a glass.
- 51:28It's just you never appreciate your hands as much and how
- 51:32easily they do remarkably complex things.
- 51:35But it's only a matter of time. Yeah.
- 51:37I mean, how irritating it is. I mean, ultimately I'm really
- 51:39interested in kind of human computer interface because then
- 51:43you can like add arms and add things.
- 51:46And I want that to happen before the robots.
- 51:48I know 1X just released that Neo and I don't like looking at that
- 51:53thing. The idea that there's like folks
- 51:55in the third world with VR goggles that are controlling it
- 51:58inside your house and that's actually how it moves totally
- 52:01creeps me out. So it's like give me the Doc Ock
- 52:04arms first before we get like C3PO in the closet freaking me
- 52:08out and not even being in the kitchen.
- 52:10I just got to I I'll know he's there.
- 52:12You know, I don't even want. That Yeah.
- 52:14Yeah. Well, I, you know, I, we'll,
- 52:17we'll see, but I mean, I, I would guess it sounds like
- 52:20you're following it more closely than I am, but I, you know, I
- 52:22think in the next, it's probably not five years, it's probably
- 52:25more like 10 years. Like, you know, I think that's
- 52:27the conventional wisdom is that people overestimate how quickly
- 52:32new technology will be implemented in their lives, but
- 52:34underestimate the impact of it when it is.
- 52:37And so, you know, you just look around your house and think
- 52:41about how the world changes when you have, you know, robots that
- 52:45can train you type your emails, get a glass of water for the
- 52:49creatine shake out of the fridge.
- 52:51What will, what will we be all doing?
- 52:52Because you think about then everything else at Rambles St.
- 52:55you look at the, the, you know, the robot implementation at
- 52:58Amazon, the 30,000 people that have been laid off.
- 53:02You know this, as I said, not to be, you know, Pollyannish, but
- 53:08it's the world is changing very quickly in unpredictable ways.
- 53:12So true Greg, this has been awesome.
- 53:15Ladies and gentlemen, you can check out
- 53:16collectiveliquidity.com is the website.
- 53:19For the first time you can reduce the risk of pre IPO
- 53:22shares by exchanging tax free into a portfolio backed by
- 53:27legendary VCs. This has been awesome.
- 53:29I want to give a shout out to breakthrought1d.org which is a
- 53:35great organization that that makes supports.
- 53:39It looks like if you go to to breakthrought1d.org on November
- 53:45is a dedicated month for the community and you can give a a
- 53:49generous one time gift amount and any amount that you so
- 53:53choose. So my, my, my son has type 1
- 53:56diabetes. That's that's why we give to
- 53:58that organization. So I'm sure he'll appreciate
- 54:00it's a good organization. Tremendous.
- 54:03Greg, where can people connect with you online?
- 54:06At greg@collectiveliquidity.com. So that's, that's my e-mail.
- 54:09Happy to, you know, certainly anybody in in your audience,
- 54:11Ryan happy to engage with answer questions.
- 54:13As I said, even with we can't help because it's not a eligible
- 54:18company for exchange. We're happy to provide
- 54:20introductions to, you know, other people that can help solve
- 54:23problems. Thanks so much, Greg.
- 54:25It's been great. And thanks for having me,
- 54:28greatly appreciate it. This episode is brought to you
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