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Once dominant fascist powers, Japan and Germany are now saving democracy · The Morning Edition

• 0:06
  S1: Donald Trump never fails to miss an opportunity to punish
• 0:10
  S1: his allies. This week, it was Germany when Trump announced
• 0:14
  S1: that he'd be pulling 5000 troops from the country after
• 0:17
  S1: its chancellor said that the U.S. had been humiliated by Iran.
• 0:22
  S1: But away from the front page news, Germany and another
• 0:25
  S1: former enemy of the United States, Japan have been on
• 0:29
  S1: the rise. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and you're listening to
• 0:33
  S1: The Morning Edition from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today,
• 0:38
  S1: international and political editor Peter Hartcher on the stunning turnabout
• 0:42
  S1: from the very countries that threaten peace the most in
• 0:45
  S1: their time, and how it will impact us all. It's
• 0:49
  S1: May the 7th. Peter, welcome back to the podcast.
• 0:55
  S2: Good to be here, Samantha.
• 0:57
  S1: Now, I've got to ask you, first off, did you
• 0:58
  S1: ever think that you would be writing a column about
• 1:01
  S1: how Germany and Japan, once the greatest wartime fascist powers,
• 1:05
  S1: have become bastions of liberty. Like, is this a Twilight
• 1:09
  S1: Zone type moment? You know, up becomes down.
• 1:12
  S2: Well, in one sense it is. If you take a
• 1:14
  S2: step back from, you know, immediate news and world affairs,
• 1:18
  S2: look at the the arc of history to see that today,
• 1:22
  S2: when democracy is under threat, the number of democratic countries
• 1:26
  S2: has been shrinking since 2007. Only 26 full democracies left
• 1:34
  S2: on the planet, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit annual ranking,
• 1:38
  S2: and that two of the countries that are most committed
• 1:43
  S2: to democracy and sustaining and defending it are in fact,
• 1:47
  S2: Japan and Germany, and that they were, in just the
• 1:50
  S2: blink of the historic eye a mere 75 years ago,
• 1:54
  S2: 80 years ago, were the dominant fascist powers on the planet,
• 1:58
  S2: seeking and almost succeeding, almost succeeding in a fascist project
• 2:03
  S2: to extinguish human liberty. And here we are again. According
• 2:07
  S2: to the Economist Intelligence Unit, the US is now is
• 2:11
  S2: no longer a full democracy. It's a flawed democracy.
• 2:14
  S1: That's right.
• 2:15
  S2: But Japan and Germany are not only fully democratic, but
• 2:18
  S2: they're doing what they can to offset the collapse of
• 2:21
  S2: American commitment to democracy and and to liberty on the
• 2:25
  S2: planet and to defeat threats. So, so it is an
• 2:30
  S2: extraordinary twilight zone moment in that sense.
• 2:34
  S1: Okay. Well, let's walk through it then. Tell us about
• 2:37
  S1: how Germany and Japan, how both of them have risen
• 2:41
  S1: to become, you know, these upholders of democracy when, of course,
• 2:44
  S1: their history was quite the opposite.
• 2:46
  S2: Two parts. The answer really, Samantha? The longer term one
• 2:49
  S2: is that after World War Two, like Japan, Germany was
• 2:53
  S2: reduced to a very pacifist but also a sort of
• 2:56
  S2: penitent state. Japan and Germany alike really internalized the lessons
• 3:03
  S2: of their fascist experience and their expansionist experience, their quest
• 3:09
  S2: for global dominance. They really learned those lessons. They learned
• 3:13
  S2: them the hard way, and they spent the post-war decades
• 3:17
  S2: a couple of doing a couple of things. Both Japan
• 3:19
  S2: and Germany made themselves into model international citizens. For the
• 3:23
  S2: last 75 years, Germany, together with France, established the European Union,
• 3:29
  S2: started as the European Economic Community, and then grew into
• 3:34
  S2: the European Union specifically so that Germany would not break
• 3:39
  S2: out and would not attempt once more to dominate Europe,
• 3:43
  S2: and that there would be no more wars inside Europe.
• 3:46
  S2: That was a very deliberate project to constrain itself. Likewise,
• 3:50
  S2: Japan under a peace time or a pacifist constitution which
• 3:55
  S2: was imposed on them by the US. But they accepted
• 3:57
  S2: it and they really internalized that. The Japanese really also
• 4:00
  S2: accepted and internalized and kept that to this day, although
• 4:04
  S2: they're now debating how to how to overcome it. So
• 4:09
  S2: the Germans and the Japanese both reduced their defense spending
• 4:13
  S2: to a bare minimum. Were happy to give the defense
• 4:16
  S2: and strategic task. They contracted it out to the US
• 4:20
  S2: and they concentrated on becoming prosperous, successful democracies. And wow,
• 4:24
  S2: have they succeeded. Japan today is the world's fourth biggest economy.
• 4:27
  S2: Germany is the world's third biggest economy. And as we
• 4:30
  S2: said already, they're full democracies and and loving it.
• 4:34
  S1: I mean, that's incredible. I truly did not realize until
• 4:37
  S1: reading your column that they were the third and fourth largest. Yes.
• 4:40
  S1: That's incredible.
• 4:40
  S2: Yes. Yeah. Um, but in the immediate term, what they're
• 4:45
  S2: doing now is quite different with the advent of Donald Trump,
• 4:50
  S2: with the fact that he is withdrawing almost day by day,
• 4:53
  S2: you can see it occurring day by day, withdrawing American
• 4:57
  S2: security guarantees, alliance commitments, whether it's to Europe or to
• 5:02
  S2: the Indo Pacific allies and the threats rising. So with Europe,
• 5:07
  S2: the threat obviously is Vladimir Putin and the chancellor of Germany.
• 5:12
  S2: Friedrich Merz has said it's obvious, increasingly obvious, that Putin's
• 5:18
  S2: target is not Ukraine. Putin's target is all of Europe.
• 5:21
  S2: He's not going to stop at Ukraine. And he said,
• 5:22
  S2: we are at five minutes to midnight. We need to
• 5:25
  S2: make Europe as strong as we can, as quickly as
• 5:27
  S2: we can. And then in the case of Japan, Prime
• 5:32
  S2: Minister Takaichi is determined to make Japan the main point
• 5:37
  S2: of resistance in Asia against the Chinese Communist Party and
• 5:41
  S2: China's expansionist not only plans, but actual daily operations to
• 5:47
  S2: expand its sphere of influence. And they're doing that in
• 5:50
  S2: a bunch of ways. And Takaichi has brought on a
• 5:54
  S2: major confrontation with China. Beijing is now imposing a whole
• 5:58
  S2: raft of economic sanctions on Japan, as well as military intimidation.
• 6:05
  S2: And Takaichi has said she's just spoken the plain truth,
• 6:08
  S2: where she said China is using coercion to expand its
• 6:15
  S2: influence and dominate Indo Pacific. XI Jinping, president of China,
• 6:20
  S2: doesn't like to hear, hear it actually spoken out loud
• 6:23
  S2: from other countries. But then she went a step further
• 6:26
  S2: and asked in Japan's parliament, what would it mean for
• 6:29
  S2: Japan if the Chinese Communist Party were to try to
• 6:33
  S2: take Taiwan by force? She said it would be a
• 6:37
  S2: survival threatening development for Japan. Now, first of all, that's
• 6:42
  S2: very straightforward and plainspoken. It's one of her characteristics. It's
• 6:46
  S2: why the Japanese public likes her so much. No serving
• 6:50
  S2: prime minister has been that plain. In other words, a
• 6:53
  S2: threat to Taiwan. We will interpret it as a threat
• 6:55
  S2: to us. Right? Which implies, of course, Japan would enter
• 6:59
  S2: a war in defense of Taiwan. And in fact, that
• 7:03
  S2: is the legal significance of her statement as well, that
• 7:07
  S2: under Japanese law, if it is a survival threatening situation,
• 7:11
  S2: it justifies the use of the Japanese military to to
• 7:15
  S2: enter that war. Under Japan's existing rules and laws. And
• 7:20
  S2: it was to that that the Chinese Communist Party reacted
• 7:23
  S2: with this raft of economic sanctions.
• 7:25
  S1: And so all up, if you had to sum it up,
• 7:28
  S1: would it, in terms of how they are contributing to
• 7:30
  S1: the upholding of democracy across the globe, is it primarily
• 7:33
  S1: that Germany is sort of rearming and asserting itself more
• 7:37
  S1: in order to stave off Russia's aggression? And then Japan
• 7:40
  S1: is doing the same. But to stave off Chinese aggression
• 7:43
  S1: is that that's what we're talking about.
• 7:45
  S2: That's exactly what we're talking about.
• 7:46
  S1: Yeah. And how much rearming are we talking about here?
• 7:48
  S1: Because I know that you wrote that Germany's defense spending
• 7:51
  S1: last year grew by a sharp 24% to hit 2%
• 7:55
  S1: of GDP for the first time since the end of
• 7:57
  S1: the Cold War. You wrote that Frederick Mertz says he'll
• 7:59
  S1: drive it to 5%, which is astonishing. And what about Japan?
• 8:04
  S2: One of the ways that Japan voluntarily sort of put
• 8:07
  S2: a straitjacket on its own use of force is that
• 8:11
  S2: for many decades, although the peace constitution literally says the
• 8:15
  S2: means of armed force will never be maintained. But over
• 8:19
  S2: the years, they reinterpreted that to say, well, it's not
• 8:22
  S2: a military force. And they put a limit on spending
• 8:24
  S2: of 1% of GDP. But she has now taken it
• 8:28
  S2: to 2% of GDP just in March, actually, to the
• 8:31
  S2: fiscal year just finished, and has said that she's going
• 8:35
  S2: to continue beyond. Beyond. We can only guess where. But
• 8:39
  S2: beyond 3%. So Germany and Japan both have gone from
• 8:43
  S2: about roughly 1% to doubling their defense effort as a
• 8:48
  S2: percentage of GDP and are continuing in that trend. But
• 8:53
  S2: these are big catch ups right from countries which had
• 8:55
  S2: voluntarily restrained their their military power, essentially maintaining small peacetime
• 9:02
  S2: military forces. And they're now very deliberately arming for for
• 9:07
  S2: war that they can't pretend anymore. The American umbrella that
• 9:14
  S2: encompassed all of Europe, Western Europe and then also its
• 9:20
  S2: Pacific Indo-Pacific allies Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines was
• 9:25
  S2: partly to protect them, but it also was created partly
• 9:31
  S2: to keep Japan and Germany down. Right. If the Americans
• 9:36
  S2: wanted to make sure that Japan and Germany would not
• 9:39
  S2: have another militarist fascist outbreak and challenge democracy in the
• 9:45
  S2: world again. So that's pretty interesting because now the country
• 9:49
  S2: that's challenging democracy in the world, and certainly flirting with
• 9:54
  S2: authoritarianism at the very least, is the US. And these
• 9:58
  S2: countries are now rearming and they're actually rearming with the
• 10:02
  S2: encouragement of the US. But both Japan, Germany, NATO allies, US, right.
• 10:08
  S2: The Americans are encouraging all of all of these allies
• 10:12
  S2: to re-arm and to get more active as it retracts
• 10:15
  S2: its security guarantees for its allies.
• 10:19
  S1: After the break.
• 10:21
  S2: There are three great predators stalking the globe. There's Russia,
• 10:25
  S2: China and the US.
• 10:35
  S1: Okay, so in addition to, you know, rearming, what else
• 10:39
  S1: are Germany and Japan doing to become these exemplary democracies
• 10:43
  S1: that are helping to sort of shore up democracy, in
• 10:46
  S1: addition to, I guess, fighting back against the aggressions of
• 10:49
  S1: the authoritarian dictators that threaten to encroach them.
• 10:53
  S2: They're pointing up the limits of US security guarantee. They're
• 10:59
  S2: strengthening not only themselves, but their their neighbors. So Mertz
• 11:04
  S2: has said that he wants to make Germany the central
• 11:07
  S2: point of a stronger Europe in collaboration with allies. He's
• 11:13
  S2: not proposing a nuclear capacity for for Germany, but he
• 11:18
  S2: is talking to the French and the Brits about a
• 11:21
  S2: joint European nuclear umbrella to replace the American one, which
• 11:25
  S2: is still there, but he obviously thinks can't be relied on.
• 11:29
  S2: So he's he is he's trying to strengthen all of
• 11:31
  S2: all of Europe and also stepping up help to Ukraine.
• 11:36
  S2: But they're also trying to work with Indo-Pacific countries because,
• 11:41
  S2: as they say, the two theaters are now indistinguishable. Similarly,
• 11:45
  S2: Japan is giving assistance to its neighbors, giving, for example,
• 11:51
  S2: naval vessels to the Philippines and other, uh, equipment, military
• 11:57
  S2: gear to the Philippines to help them defend themselves against
• 12:00
  S2: against China, where there's constant friction on the water over
• 12:04
  S2: contested maritime territories. They're also stepping up to replace some
• 12:08
  S2: of the aid money that Trump has pulled out of,
• 12:12
  S2: of the the region. The Japanese have been huge aid
• 12:15
  S2: donors ever since the 60s, really as part of their
• 12:19
  S2: way of being model international citizens. They're consistently the second
• 12:24
  S2: or third biggest aid donor to Pacific Island countries, to
• 12:29
  S2: South East Asia. And now they're. And now they are
• 12:32
  S2: also doing more along those lines. Plus, Takeuchi has engineered
• 12:38
  S2: a pretty impressive rapprochement with the South Koreans. As you know, Japan,
• 12:43
  S2: South Korea, a lot of bad blood. You know, she
• 12:46
  S2: was a heavy metal drummer. Yes, I do. And the
• 12:50
  S2: surprise way in which Takeuchi, uh, revived improved relations with
• 12:55
  S2: South Korea is she invited the South Korean president to
• 12:58
  S2: come to Japan and invited him to to do a
• 13:01
  S2: session on the drums with her. The two of them
• 13:03
  S2: sat around bashing out the.
• 13:05
  S1: That's right, the drums.
• 13:06
  S2: So she's a refreshing, bold, unconventional. But that's effective diplomacy.
• 13:13
  S1: Interesting. Well, I'm glad you mentioned the bad blood that
• 13:15
  S1: there has been historically between Japan and South Korea. Japan's
• 13:19
  S1: invaded South Korea three times. So definitely bad history because
• 13:23
  S1: I want it to be contrary for a moment, Peter,
• 13:25
  S1: and just ask if there's any inherent danger in Germany,
• 13:28
  S1: in Japan, sort of rearming and becoming more assertive in
• 13:31
  S1: this way, because in doing so, isn't it possible this
• 13:33
  S1: will help lead our world back to the chaotic pre
• 13:37
  S1: 1945 multi-polar order? You know, when obviously multiple great powers
• 13:43
  S1: fought regular wars, pursued their own strategic interests, like, is
• 13:46
  S1: it not possible that this is going to firmly lead
• 13:49
  S1: us back to that?
• 13:52
  S2: Well, the first point I'd make is we are already
• 13:53
  S2: in a multi-polar world. It's no longer an American. You know,
• 13:58
  S2: the unipolar moment it was declared after the Cold War
• 14:01
  S2: ended is gone. There are three great predators stalking the globe.
• 14:06
  S2: There's Russia, China and the US. The US was our predator,
• 14:11
  S2: but it seems to be retracting a lot of its
• 14:14
  S2: support for its erstwhile allies and is now, in fact
• 14:17
  S2: making territorial claims on its allies. Wants to take part of.
• 14:21
  S2: Wants to take Greenland, wants to take Canada. So these
• 14:25
  S2: are now these are now predators on on the move
• 14:28
  S2: and on the march. The question is, who will stand
• 14:31
  S2: up to them? So what you're talking about here is
• 14:36
  S2: two committed democracies saying, well, you know, somebody's got to
• 14:42
  S2: stop the predators. The Americans used to do it. They're
• 14:44
  S2: not doing it anymore. They've become one themselves. So we're
• 14:47
  S2: going to step up.
• 14:48
  S1: But just to play devil's advocate here for a moment,
• 14:50
  S1: I'm just wondering, like, is there not a possibility that
• 14:53
  S1: you get Germany and Japan? They're rearming. Is it not
• 14:56
  S1: a possibility that actually this makes their neighbors nervous? And
• 14:59
  S1: you know, Poland goes, okay, wait a minute. We got
• 15:01
  S1: Russia on one side. We've got Germany rearming potentially becoming
• 15:05
  S1: more nationalistic. They've got, you know, far right governments on
• 15:08
  S1: the move there. And then Japan. Could this not make
• 15:11
  S1: South Korea pretty nervous and think wait a minute. Maybe
• 15:14
  S1: we need a nuclear weapon.
• 15:15
  S2: Like well, uh, South Korea traditionally would have been very nervous,
• 15:20
  S2: but they're feeling the threat from North Korea and China. Mhm.
• 15:25
  S2: They have their own internal debate about acquiring a nuclear capability.
• 15:29
  S2: Three quarters roughly, of South Koreans want a nuclear bomb
• 15:33
  S2: for their country. Yeah. And feeling that threat and with
• 15:36
  S2: more a more supportive Japan it takes some of the
• 15:39
  S2: animosity out. Okay. Broadly, your point would be right if
• 15:43
  S2: Japan or Germany were to have an autocratic moment themselves
• 15:48
  S2: were if Takaichi or Maertz were to try to crack
• 15:52
  S2: down on democracy and assume authoritarian power, okay, then that
• 15:57
  S2: would be a danger. There's no such hint of that.
• 16:00
  S2: And they're both on the conservative side of the spectrum.
• 16:04
  S2: But it's a very conventional Western democratic political spectrum that
• 16:08
  S2: they're on the conservative side of. The alternative is if
• 16:11
  S2: they don't step up, what happens? The polls you mentioned
• 16:15
  S2: the polls or the South Koreans would be much less
• 16:18
  S2: happy to be overwhelmed by dominance of Russia in Europe, China,
• 16:23
  S2: North Korea, in Asia, than to have a resurgent Japan
• 16:27
  S2: and a resurgent Germany defending democratic states democratic systems at
• 16:33
  S2: a very basic level, keeping sea lanes, sea lanes, open
• 16:38
  S2: sea lines of communication. We've got a fresh appreciation for
• 16:41
  S2: because of the Strait of Hormuz closure or near closure
• 16:45
  S2: at a very fundamental level, the Japanese under under, first
• 16:50
  S2: of all, Shinzo Abe, who was prime minister a decade
• 16:52
  S2: ago and mentor to Takaichi, he coined the phrase a
• 16:58
  S2: policy called free and open Indo-Pacific. Takaichi has revived that.
• 17:04
  S2: This is this is the centerpiece of her foreign policy.
• 17:07
  S2: We are committed, she says, Japan to a free and
• 17:10
  S2: open Indo-Pacific and other countries. We've adopted that as well.
• 17:13
  S2: Australia in recent years, a lot of countries have adopted that.
• 17:16
  S2: And at a. It's sort of very basic thing to prevent,
• 17:21
  S2: in this case, the Chinese Communist Party, from dictating who
• 17:24
  S2: can go through international waters where half of the world's
• 17:29
  S2: global commerce passes through the South China Sea. And in
• 17:34
  S2: the case of Russia, well, we know the Russian Russian
• 17:37
  S2: ambition to control everything and shut down everything that they
• 17:41
  S2: that they choose. So they're talking about keeping the world
• 17:44
  S2: economy from being dominated and supply chains, the basics of sustenance,
• 17:50
  S2: of food and fuel to be kept circulating in the planet,
• 17:54
  S2: as well as the preservation of, at a loftier level,
• 17:56
  S2: human liberties.
• 18:00
  S1: Peter, thank you so much for your time.
• 18:02
  S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
• 18:08
  S1: In other news, today, the recycling company that runs the
• 18:11
  S1: national network of eco bat battery collection bins at major
• 18:15
  S1: retailers such as Coles, Woolworths, Aldi and Bunnings is being
• 18:19
  S1: accused by former employees of dumping, stockpiling or burning millions
• 18:24
  S1: of batteries instead of recycling them. Australia's reserves of diesel
• 18:29
  S1: and jet fuel will be boosted to 50 days of
• 18:32
  S1: average use under a $10 billion funding package announced by
• 18:36
  S1: the Albanese government, and Australians will have their only chance
• 18:41
  S1: to spy a newly discovered blue green comet scorching past
• 18:45
  S1: earth during the next fortnight before the cosmic visitor fires
• 18:48
  S1: off into deep space. You can read more at the
• 18:52
  S1: age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong.
• 18:59
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