Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 8: BIG GAME PREVIEWS, PICKS, & PREDICTIONS
Transcript
- Jackson: Welcome back everyone. My name's Shackson. That's Davis and this is the Mike Check Podcast. Davis: It's the fourth Saturday in October. Jackson: Yeah. The last time I did that the games didn't go too well for me, so I'm sticking to sticking to what I know and and what we've been doing. So it's been working for me so far and I decided to change it up and all my teams lose, my team's rivals win and it's just freaking chaos. So that was that was some bad aura there for the last week's intro. Davis: That's one way one way to sum up last week is just chaos. I think that's the best week of college football, like Auburn fandom aside that I can remember. I mean, we had five out of the top seven upset. The only reason that two of weren't upset was because they were playing each other. Jackson: it was a lot of fun, but there's a slight like I mean, it wasn't that fun for me considering my two rivals won and Bama lost to to one of their biggest rivals. But yeah, I mean it was a great weekend. Nothing can't take away from that, but so this week Davis: We've had back to back weeks with number one overall team AP number one teams getting upset. Jackson: Yeah, and I saw a I saw a stat on Twitter, I think it was let's see. Bud Elliott tweeted. So he was just kind of talking about like how much closer the games are nowadays. And the tweet says this is how or I'll paraphrase, this is how much of the talent is now spread around college football. So this week, ninety two percent of all games have had a Vegas line of two scores or less. A decade ago, the same week, that number was sixty five percent. So ninety two percent today versus sixty five percent, ten years ago. It's just it's crazy to see with the new era football in NIL how closer these all these teams are. Like you don't have like the top five, ten teams kinda hoarding all the talent. With NIL, you you know, people will leave and go elsewhere to get paid a little money and And play a little more. So yeah, it's Davis: Well that's definitely true. You know what the other big driver of that stat is? It's the clock rules. The game used Jackson: Yeah, that's true. Davis: to the game used to stop on for like or pause on every first Jackson: That's true. Davis: down. Now it only does that within what is it, four minutes of the half. so all the games, like I I think they looked back what, ten or so years ago and there's tw like fifteen, twenty percent less plays now than there were back then. So that also reduces the I guess the ability for games to the margin to get wider because the games are shortened. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, yeah, that's fair. geez, we're three minutes and we're Davis: But I definitely agree with your point too. Jackson: three minutes and eight seconds in and you're already shooting me down, dude. You're already shooting down my fun facts, but Davis: No no that was that that was in addition to yeah. Jackson: all right, let's jump into it. Got a got a decent minute to get to today. We are doing you know, the normal pick six preview. then we'll get into upside check. then after the upside check, we're gonna get into some like conference standing stuff, just kind of see where things stand as we are now halfway through the season. So it's always fun to look at and kind get a glimpse of the full picture in all these conferences and see kinda what teams have some room for error and what teams really are kinda playing with their backs against the wall. Davis: Yeah, we've talked about all these teams individually with, you know, all the game previews and game recaps, but we haven't really taken a step back and broken down, conference standings and just from a higher level. So aim to do that and hope it's I guess beneficial. Jackson: Alright, so we are back with another week of the comment section. Pick had a few people jump in last week. what do we have? Like 10, 15, so decent turnout there. So if if you want, jump in the comment section, give your pick six games. Pick in the spread and remember to put the the tiebreaker. So this week the tiebreaker will be the total points in the Houston, Utah game. Had a lot of people, including myself, comment and did not put the tiebreaker. So would hate for someone to lose that did not include that. But Yeah, get your picks in, drop in the comments. Davis: the winner had five correct picks. Haven't had a six correct pick week yet. couple people only went only got one right, so I haven't seen anybody go Ofer, but it's a little harder it's a little harder than it seems. Jackson: Yeah, and I had someone text me and was like, Hey, in order to win this comment section pick thing, do I have to like and subscribe too? And I'm like, we didn't say that, but yes, you have to like and subscribe. Davis: Yeah, yeah. Jackson: Like you yes, like and subscribe. That that will also Davis: Yeah. Jackson: that is a requirement to enter in this contest. But anyway. Davis: Yeah, if you're gonna comment, that takes more time than liking and and subscribing. So if you're hearing this and you're and you don't plan on commenting because you don't think you'll do well, like it instead, I guess. And then comment Jackson: Yeah. Give us something. Davis: too. Jackson: Give us something. Come on. Alright, first game of the day. Number fourteen, Houston. Travels to Salt Lake City to face number ten, Utah. Line here is Utah. Line is six and a half. Over under set at fifty-six and a half. So both these teams having a great year so far. Utah is six and and actually holds the nation's longest win streak. I know you mentioned streaks in our last show. when you're talking about Indiana, who had held the longest win streak up until their loss last week to Ohio State. That title now belongs to Utah. They have won twelve games in a row. And I'd look to make it thirteen this weekend against Cougars. College Game Day will be there in Utah again. last week they were in Provo. This week they'll be in Salt Lake City for this game. So a lot of things at stakes for the Utes and the Cougars. What you got? Whatcha thinking on this one? Davis: I'm excited for this one. game days here, so game of the week. Two powerful offenses. It's a 915 central kick, so definitely worth staying up for. both these teams, like I said, have prolific offenses. They both rank top 10 in yards per game. Houston led by Connor Wigman and Utah led by Devin Dampier. They do a little bit of a two-quarterback system. So if you haven't watch that, it's definitely worth checking out. Utah's defense through three weeks was looking very stout. I don't think that they gave up more than 17 points in any of the first three games. The competition picked up a little bit and that defense has not really been the same as it was early in the season. So I'm curious to see how it holds up against Houston in this heavyweight matchup. Jackson: Yes, so these teams, when you look at on paper, if you look at the graphic, they look almost identical. points per game, Utah thirty nine point three, Houston forty point two, points per game allowed twenty one to fourteen yards per game, forty five, forty six, passing yards per game, two sixty four, two sixty six, rushing yards per game, they're both at two twenty. And you can go down the list from there. So it pretty even teams. The one thing I will say is I feel like or I know that Houston has played a Significantly tougher schedule, I think, than Utah has. I have the average opponent rank for Houston at around forty-two, and then Utah is around seventy-one average ranking. So Houston's definitely proved it a little bit more. one thing to watch out for when you're when you're watching this game is the defense is on paper, the points per game allowed, if that's all you're looking at, look decent. But these defenses are not that great. Houston last week gave up 32 to Oklahoma State, and then Colorado scored twenty-four on Utah. So I think this will definitely be a high scoring game. And with that being said, I feel like Houston has been in more of these high scoring games than Utah has been. Houston's definitely got the experience there and and going back and forth. So maybe trust Houston's offense a little bit more. I think I have a little more confidence in Connor Wegman in terms of throwing the ball, but I don't know. Offen Utah's offenses look pretty pretty good as well. Davis: Yeah. Houston's offense actually ranks second in the nation in passing success rate, only behind Miami. And that was something that we mentioned last week was that Houston, they aren't gonna jump off the page at you with explosive plays, they're just very consistent at moving the ball, especially through the air. and then you look at Utah and they just gave up two hundred and fifty-six yards. through the air to Isaac Wilson at Colorado. And I admittedly have not watched much Colorado. but I think that's their third starting quarterback of the year. So either Colorado has figured something out at quarterback or Utah's pass defense isn't what we once thought it was just three weeks ago. And that and that's evident in in even their game against Kansas. So first three games against FPS opponents, Utah allowed 3.93 yards per play and nine points per game. That was against Arkansas, Utah State, and Iowa State. So not very good opponents, but still two power four, and then the other being Utah State. In their last two games, Kansas and Colorado, that yards per play has jumped up. and almost doubled to six point nine five and the points per game is now at twenty four. And Kansas and Colorado aren't known for their their offenses either. So I I really kind of done 180 on what I thought of Utah's defense. And I do trust Houston's offense. They're playing well. the spread here is six and a half. Utah being the favorite. I like Houston and the upset. Jackson: Yeah, I I'm with you there. I like I said, the belief in Conor Wrigman is there for me. He has shown that this Houston offense is the kind of system that he thrives in. Another thing to note is Utah's sack rate is ranks one hundred and twenty seventh in the nation. So, you know, you mentioned the pass defense hadn't been great. The pressure's not getting there either. So he's he's probably gonna have all day to throw in that pocket and As I mentioned earlier in a shootout, I trust Houston a lot more than I do Utah I think they're experienced in those kind of games. So I'm with you. Get give me Houston to definitely cover the spread, but I I like them to win this game outright as well. Davis: I like it. You staying up Jackson: See Davis: for that whole thing? Or are your kids keeping you up to where where Jackson: We'll see. We'll see though. Davis: a one AM fourth quarter is just not worth it and you're gonna have to check the game in the morning? Jackson: Sometimes the sometimes a one month old sometimes I'm up with her anyways, but we'll see. I if I'm up with her, yeah, we'll definitely definitely have it on. But if she's asleep I may have to take advantage of of the hours I can get. Alright. Next game, number seven, Old Miss at number nineteen, Texas. This one is in Austin, Texas. Minus three and a half is the line over under fifty-four. So this is a game to me where it's kind of completely different circumstances. You have Ole Miss who has the one loss against Florida, which came after, you know, I don't want to say their Super Bowl, but a huge game in LSU. emotions were high. They went on the road the next week to Florida and kinda got slammed. And since the bye week, they've kind of had things turned around. I mean, they played Vandy in Missouri, which I know Vandy obviously has not looked great and Missouri is better than expected, I feel like. I mean Missouri's beat some good teams, so I I feel like a 31 to three win against Missouri is definitely credible. But and then you have Texas on the other hand. Texas has lost two games in a row, both to unranked teams. I know Florida's not ranked, but unranked at the time, and just kind of trending in a downward direction. So Where do you see this game going, I guess? Like how do you see this thing shaken out? Davis: Yeah, I was kind of surprised at the initial number. I thought three and a half was a lot for a Texas team that hasn't looked good lately. They are also down their best player in Colin Simmons. So that's another huge blow. this game is is really a a strength on strength with Ole Miss's offense against Texas's defense. But like I said Texas's defense took that massive hit with the Colin Simmons injury. So, it's hard to say what Texas's defense will look like without him. really all you can do is go back to the Florida game, before and after he went out. he ended up going down with that injury with Jackson: Yeah. Davis: thirteen forty-three left in the fourth quarter. And at that time, it was seventeen to seventeen. And without him in the game, Florida eventually scored ten points in their last three drives to secure that win. I don't have any more of the underlying metrics as to, you know, sacks or pressures without him in there, but from a high level, they scored pretty well without him in there. I would expect Olmes to be able to move the ball at a at a s a similar clip as well. Jackson: Yeah. And another thing that maybe some of you missed the old miss game last week against Missouri, but Lacey is back. Keywand Lacey is like fully back, I can't remember off the top of my head how many times I handed him the ball, but it was a good bit against last week against Missouri and he kind of showed that that injury is not affecting him anymore and they are not putting him on a a pitch count, if you will. Like they they're they're running their offense as they were before he was injured, so That's another thing that I feel like a lot of people knocked or miss a lot on after he got hurt was you know this offense is not the same without him. But now a lot of people are failing to realize that he is back and this offense is complete again. last week they played a Missouri team whose main focus is running the ball. Well they held him to under a hundred yards rushing and forced him to throw the ball, which Austin Simmons we talked about, is is pretty good at doing. However, if you do that to Texas, I don't know that Arch can beat you through the air. we've seen holes in the in the Ole Miss defense early on in the season. the first game against Louisville. We saw some explosive plays and in the next few games against LSU as well. So to me, if you're Arch, you just gotta step up and and beat them through the air. It it seems like they're able to, they've kind of figured out their stopping the run problem, But yeah, it's it's gonna be tough for Texas to just line up in a spread offense and just air this thing out. Davis: Yeah, and Ole Mes's defense has been playing much better in the last few weeks. they shut down Missouri. and then you have the turmoil that's going on in that quarterback room for Texas. you think there's any way that we see a Jackson: KJ Lacey. Davis: Yeah. You think we see a K K Lacey? Jackson: I don't know. I was actually gonna ask you, I mean, I think we could see him. I was gonna ask you when do you think like how bad does it have to be for Arch to or for Sark rather to on prime time national TV in a seven thirty Eastern kick on ABC, how bad does it have to be for Sark to pull Arch and say, All right, w we gotta go with number two here? Davis: I don't think we see this week against Ole Miss. next week they have Mississippi State. I think if you're gonna do it, you should do it going into that game, that like that week of practice. I know that they started to give reps a little bit. or at least they planned to. I guess we'll see if they actually did that or not. But I I don't yeah, if I had to guess, I don't think we see unless things go disastrous. Jackson: Yeah. And I think for me, just kind of trying to diagnose the situation, it's kind of similar to I think the fix is a little bit similar to my rant last week about Alabama playing at Tennessee. And and I haven't studied Texas film by any means, but I I think it would it would probably be beneficial t for Sark and Arch and their OC to kinda get in a room and Run some plays that he's comfortable with. Like, I feel like maybe Sark is just trying to call these offensive plays to exploit the weakness of the defense and not so much like call plays to the strengths of his quarterback in Arch Manning. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Like roll rollout passes, for example. To me as a quarterback, those are always a lot easier to see the field than just dropping back when you have, you know, six five, six six offensive tackles. You got guards, people rushing you, like it's a little harder to see. I I I can I can relate with him there. I know Arch is a little bit bigger than I am and he's a hell of a lot better quarterback than I was, but still I just think those confidence booster plays, to Davis: Yeah. Jackson: kind of get him in a rhythm and get him going, maybe that could be an answer. But they don't pay me millions of dollars Davis: So Jackson: to to coach these these teams. But that's just kind of my two cents. Davis: So last week when we kinda had the quarterback discussion, I was gonna bring up this thing that I found that talks about Texas's play calling. we kinda went long, so I I've been somewhat saving it. but I'm gonna read it off and I guess bear with me here. the question was that you asked me what, a week ago or two weeks ago was do I think that Arch Manning fits Steve Sarkeesian's offense. I guess was the gist of it. And this guy on Twitter, Bud Davis, did a great job of like breaking down every single like play call and the personnel and the type of play. And then added a success rate and EPA per play with each of the like categories. And so when I'm looking at an offense And trying to like when I think what are the like what what's the meta of like college offenses and the NFL offenses? It's play action, it's motions and shifts, it's 12 personnels becoming more and more popular, and then it's quarterback design runs. Those are like the types of plays that I guess equivalate to the most success. And so when you look at Texas's play calling, they have motion 54% of the time, which is 12% points higher than the average. They use RPOs at 20% right on average. they do play action 39% of the time, which is six percent above league average. they do screen passes right at league average and then they do deep targets right at deep average. So and then the big thing that's interesting here is that they do QB design runs at three percent, which is twelve percent less than league average. So outside of the quarterback run game, I think Sark's doing a great job of like hitting the easy button. But It's really been on Arch's ability to see the field, feel pressure, and actually deliver the ball. Jackson: Yeah, and sometimes that's just kind of the yips, I guess. Like sometimes you're so hyper fixated on trying to get the ball to a certain receiver that you think is gonna be open based off I guess your pre snap reads or or adjustments that you've made. sometimes you just get tunnel vision and and don't trust yourself. and you focus on a guy that you think is gonna be open because you don't trust yourself to make the read during the play and and it just i obviously has has not been working, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: so Davis: They said last week that the game plan against Florida was to make Florida's DBs tackle in open space, so they just spammed screens and it really didn't work. I would be shocked if Sark doesn't try to get Arch Manning rolling by running him early and often. That's really kind of the reason why s Arch played better last year was they ran him more. They have not ran Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: him at all this year. And I don't know if they've just been trying to keep him healthy or I know he took a a brutal hit in their second game. I can't even remember who they played and he kind of got banged up. I think they run him into the ground this game. I don't know Jackson: What? Davis: what the Arch Manning player prop rushing total is. Jackson: I mean at this point Davis: Taking the over. Jackson: like there's nothing like you're not saving him for anything. You're Davis: Exactly. Jackson: bac you gotta win every game probably from here on out and they're not like they're not concerned about possibly going to a backup. So I think at this point you you just gotta you can't protect the guy anymore, you gotta do whatever it takes to to win. But yeah. It'll be interesting. They're gonna they're gonna have to get creative. Davis: Okay, I I just looked it up real quick and whatever website this is has it at seventeen and a half. I would assume that it's probably around that number at other places. I'm I think he doubles that. Jackson: Yeah. Seventeen and a half yards, sacks included. Davis: Well yeah, sacks are included. Jackson: That's the problem with him though. I feel like he Davis: That's true. Jackson: Yeah. That's that that's Davis: That's very true. Jackson: an issue. Texas allows sacks on eight point eight percent of their dropbacks, which ranks hundred and thirtieth in the nation. So a little bit of hesitancy there, but yeah, I see what you're saying. I get your point. I think they're gonna run him. I think they're gonna they're gonna have to come up with a whole new scheme for him. So if you're Ole Miss, watch the tape, but don't be surprised if you see a whole new whole new bag of tricks for for the Ole Miss defense. Anything else on this game? we gotta make a pick, I guess. Davis: I w I d yeah, I d I just went down this rabbit hole on on on Arch Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Manning that I forgot that the whole reason we were covering this game was to make a pick. yeah. Jackson: Yeah, I I'm taking Ole Miss. I think Ole Miss is gonna be able to score too many points and Texas can't keep up. You know, I think the big play potential for Texas could be there. If you see some of the Ole Miss defensive struggles that they had early on in the season. but yeah I Texas got a lot has a lot of talent, but without Colin Simmons, I think the Ole Miss offense is going to be able to focus on everyone else on the defense. Like when he's not there, they don't have to have two guys focused on one dude. Like you don't have to double a guy almost every single play. they'll be able to spread that out to the rest of the talent, which I mean, the talent's there, but they'll get a lot more focus as opposed to when you have Colin Simmons there. He's getting all the focus and the other guys are kinda able to feast a little bit. So I like Oll Miss in this game. I think Trinidad Chambles key one lacey will be too much for Texas this week. Davis: You like outright? Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Yeah, I like him outright too. Jackson: Two really confident picks from Davis and I. Surely nothing will go wrong. Yeah. Davis: So so we're going and two. Jackson: All right, next game, number eighteen, LSU at unranked Auburn. Davis: Were you surprised by that? 'Cause I was kinda surprised. Jackson: I was so happy they weren't ranked 'cause I knew it would just piss Auburn fans off. But yeah, I was a little surprised. I mean, I don't give much credibility to the A P pool, but yeah, if you look at their total body of work and wins and losses versus like some of the other teams that are ranked twenty to twenty five, then yeah, I think they should probably be ranked but Davis: Yeah, I mean the resume is pretty good. I mean we've beat the number one team at the time and then we lost to Tennessee who just came off a huge win and Florida who just came off a huge win. And Jackson: Got the best one in the country too. Davis: Yeah, on the road on the road. Yeah, I was a little shocked. I think that by the like remaining votes or w however they whatever they call it, we were like twenty Jackson: Yeah. Davis: ninth. So it we weren't even Jackson: Well. Davis: We weren't even like right on the fringe either, which is shocking. Jackson: Alright, line here's LSU minus seven and a half. Over under fifty one and a half. What do you what are you thinking? Are they are they getting it done in a a second week in a row? Davis: so The the the I don't know about that. I don't know about Jackson: I'm hearing playoff chatter down there on the plains. I'm hearing Davis: that. I mean they ran Byron Brown into the ground against Georgia. Byron Brown ran twenty-six times for I believe 115 yards. O line played a lot better against Georgia, but i if there's any way that Auburn wants to win this game, you're gonna have to run Byron Brown into the ground again. Jackson: So to me this is kind of a a little bit of a prove it game if you're L S U. you beat Mississippi State thirty one zero, congratulations, Camaro Taylor didn't play, but Other than that, I mean LSU doesn't have a big win on their schedule. Davis: Mm-mm. Jackson: Tech St. wasn't all they've lived up to be. They smoked them. Mississippi State wasn't all they've lived up to be, then they've smoked them. So and same goes for Clemson, I guess. And then they lost the whole mess. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: LSU hasn't really beat a good team on the road. We don't really know what Auburn is. Like you said, Auburn's had some some good wins and they've had some good losses, I guess you could say. Like they lost the two good teams. So This will be interesting. I I think we find out a lot about both of these teams. LSU is 0 2 on the road this year, so something to look out for. Also, last game, LSU, everyone talked about how good their defense is. They Kentucky put up 35 points on that defense. So I think LSU's defense is definitely very gettable. I was very surprised when this line opened at seven and a half. with Auburn and a touchdown at home, I will take that all day. So give me Auburn. Get me Auburn to to cover the spread. I don't know if they'll get the win. I know the risk of the hangover thing is there, But I think Alex Golish is a good enough coach to turn that into momentum. And I don't think it'll be I don't think it'll be a hangover or a letdown spot for Auburn. So I like them to cover Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the spread this week. Davis: Yeah. So I talked about if Auburn was to win this game, they needed to run Byron Brown like they did against Georgia. Another reason that Auburn won the game was because of the turnovers. they forced three against Georgia and was able to take advantage of them. Interesting enough, LSU's offense ranks 115th in the country in turnovers committed, while Auburn's defense ranks twentieth. in the country in forcing turnovers. if Auburn can take advantage of that like advantage that they have, they should be in a good spot. I just worry about the pass rush from LSU. Auburn's struggled blocking the rush every game this season. Auburn actually ranks 134th in sacks given up per game. LSU leads the SEC in sacks. I don't know if Auburn can get it can have the magic two weeks in a row. I've been pretty poor at calling Auburn games against the spread, so I'm hoping that I am reverse jinxing this, but I'm unfortunately gonna take LSU with the points and I hope that I'm wrong. Jackson: So I was just l searching up the injury report because we are filming this on Wednesday night and it comes out usually right as we start this. But Prince Will, I'm not gonna try to say his last name. He is not on the injury report this week. I know there was some concern, I think, with the head injury, but he will be good to go. Another player that is not on the injury report and is expected to play is Tradez Green. So LSU getting him back for the first time and I think since Ole Miss. So that's another element that they will add to that offense. do you see this being like a high scoring game? Or or you think it's more of a a low scoring game? 'Cause I really don't know what to think. Like I think Auburn's offense is kind of Davis: think that that fifty one and a half was a pretty good number. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I thought that Tennessee game it was gonna good chance that it would be the under and it was. Florida, I said under and it was way over. I I I wouldn't touch this fifty one and a half. I think that Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I don't know, the tr the trade as green news is unfortunate. Auburn hasn't really played a great tight end this year, but with the amount of match and man that DJ Durkin runs on that Auburn defense, the tight ends usually give us major fits because we always have linebackers matched up against them. add on to that that Our best player or used to be best player, Xavier Atkins, was dismissed from the team. He didn't play last week against Georgia, but no longer on the team, will not be playing. So that's also a big blow. and Sam Levitt's been playing well. It was almost like that foot injury kind of helped him in a weird way. He Jackson: Yeah. Davis: quit taking off and running so much and really became more like He was forced to play w from within the pocket and he seems to be more comfortable from there now. So Yeah, I I I think LSU's talent, especially on the D line, will be a little too much. And you are in that hangover spot from Auburn that has seemed to get so many teams throughout this year. Jackson: Next game, number 11, Tennessee travels to Columbia, South Carolina to face the Gamecocks. Line of South Carolina minus two and a half over under fifty and a half. I was really interested to see what the line was in this game. I'm gonna kinda hate on Tennessee a little bit. Maybe this is emotional, maybe it's because I'm a big fan, maybe it's cause we lost last week and kind of got embarrassed, but I'm throwing a lot of the numbers out on this game. I just think Tennessee, the game against Alabama, considering what it was for 20 years when Saban was there, I think it's just become such a big deal for them to win that game. A lot of emotion goes into that game. A lot of prep goes into that game. And it's just You talk about a letdown spot. I I think this is one of the bigger letdown spots for a team that, you know, I don't think there's necessarily a bigger letdown spot to me. Tennessee did blow this game a few years ago after coming off a win against Alabama, against South Carolina. So I don't know. I think South Carolina's maybe kinda turning a corner. They're coming off a big win against Florida. So yeah. I I'm going off vibes here. I think Tennessee really struggles to move the ball. I think South Carolina and Lenore Sellers can kind of that may be the kind of offense that can Give their defense a little bit of trouble. So I'm not impressed with Tennessee's quarterback and his ability to throw the ball downfield. Maybe it's just because he hit didn't have to do it last week, but I can't be impressed if I haven't seen him do it yet. So I like South Carolina in this game. The line is really weird. I don't know why they were only favored by two and a half, but I think they get the win. coming off the emotional craziness for Tennessee, I think it's just too much to go on the road. To South Carolina, which is a really tough place to play in the SEC, so I like South Carolina to get the win. Davis: Yeah, I was surprised by this line too. This was another one of those where Vegas is begging you to take Tennessee. almost like saying that they know something that we don't. if I had to guess, I would g bet that like seventy five percent of the money is on Tennessee. And when you run into cases like that, Vegas us usually does not lose. the last one was The Florida Ole Miss, where Ole Miss was coming off of a huge win against LSU and Florida was was the favorite. I think like eighty seven percent of the money was on Ole Miss and Florida just blows them out. And I'm getting like Jackson: Then and the next week with Missouri blowing out Florida the following week. So they've just kind of been mopping up with these weird lines. Davis: Yeah, that's true. Yeah. And I'm getting like deja vu with this game and the last the last games that you mentioned. And I went I I think I'm over two in both of those, like betting against the stand that Vegas is taking. So I don't love that. especially compounded with the fact that the last time that we saw South Carolina, which was two weeks ago, they had a lay a buy w last week. But they absolutely dominated Florida. they held Jaden Baugh to fifty-nine yards. And we know that that's really the only way that Tennessee is able to move the ball is through the ground with Deshaun Bishop. and then you look at the weakness of South Carolina, and it's really their DBs. They give up a lot of pass yards per game in their three losses. they've given up Three hundred and sixty five yards and four touchdowns, two hundred and fifty one yards and four touchdowns, and two hundred and seventy three and three touchdowns. But I don't trust Tennessee's quarterback play to take advantage of that mismatch. And so I I did take Tennessee in this, but I'm kind of waver I'm kinda wavering. You know what, I'll I'll go Tennessee. I'm gl I'm glad you took South Carolina so one of us one of us was represented in this game. but I'll go Tennessee. Jackson: Yeah. And and like you said, South Carolina coming off a bi week two i is a big deal. Davis: In Williams Bryce too. Jackson: Yeah. I and I guess I maybe Davis: George McIntyre in his two starts has four turnovers and they haven't really asked him to do much. Lenore Sellers in his last game against Florida put up two hundred and seventy nine and four. Like emotional spot, Tennessee after the win against Alabama. I'm just making my case against me. Jackson: I just think and I know you Yeah. I I I don't want to repeat exactly what you said, but I guess just to reiterate, when Florida was on that tear, people were figuring out that s if you stop the run against Florida, we have not seen Aaron Philo beat any teams with his arm. So if you stop the run against Florida, you'll probably be successful. So what do they do? They stopped the run against Florida and they just blew him out. So I think that's it's kind of the same game plan if you're playing Tennessee. Stop the run and make him beat you with his arm. And that's something that, you know, Bama tried to do last week and they were pretty successful at it. I mean, they did a decent job, but Bama's offense just could never stay on the field long enough to give the defense a break. So I think if you're South Carolina, you have to sustain some of these drives, get your defense off the field, get them some rest. And if you can do that and move the ball a little bit on him, I think South Carolina can get the win. So We'll leave it that just wanted to add that little little bit in. Davis: I'm gonna I'm gonna take both sides of this and I'm gonna go South Carolina twenty one twenty. Jackson: Next game. Alright, we we decided to this wasn't the greatest slate in college football. I mean, we had a banger last weekend, it was great, but there wasn't a lot of super good games, so you know, we thought it'd be fun to Davis: Hey, we like to represent the G six every once in a while. Jackson: Yeah, we thought it'd be fun to to throw in a little G six action. This is actually, I think, gonna be a great game. I mean, you have six and one North Dakota State traveling to Albuquerque to play five and one New Mexico. Line here is New Mexico minus four and a half. Over under is forty-one and Davis: Yeah, and this is a matchup between the number one ranked scoring defense in New Mexico at ten and a half points per game versus the number two ranked scoring defense in North Dakota State at eleven point three points per game allowed. Jackson: Yeah, I think it's just gonna be a battle of defenses. I mean, both these teams run the ball pretty well. Not a lot of explosive plays. I have them ranked sixtieth for New Mexico and sixty first. so i it's gonna be a s it's gonna be a slug fest. It's gonna be a street fight, it's gonna be a fun defensive matchup. I think th the the results from from New Mexico have been a little bit more impressive than the results from North Dakota State. They both have good wins, but I think to me New Mexico's are just a little bit more impressive. So North Dakota State, their one loss on the season came from UNLV, which to me was by far and away the best team they've played. the only other game I thought on their schedule that could maybe match up with that one is the win against Air Force where they won thirty eight to thirty two, which, you know, we talk about the defense. They gave up thirty two to Air Force, so you know, that's something. But Wyoming, Sacramento State, Nevada None of those teams are really great, but then again, I don't want to just beat up the schedule this whole time. This is a G six team. This was an FCS team last year. They have made the jump this year. and to me, if when you play a weak schedule, as long as you're doing what you're supposed to do against the weaker opponents, then you know, I think it's it's fine. So I don't want to beat the schedule too hard. I just I just don't want to give them too much credibility for for what they've done defensively. On the flip side of that, you have New Mexico. They hung seventy on Mercy Hearst. They only lost to Oklahoma fourteen to six. a big win against UTEP sixty one to seven. And then struggled a little bit last week on the island play in Hawaii, but yeah. Like I said, I think it just will be a defensive battle. I don't think either of these offenses are great. However, I think I would give the slight edge to New Mexico offensively, and I am going to Pick them to win for that reason. Also, the home factor is is big for me in a game like this. It's probably one of the biggest games. I don't I'm not super like well informed or or or into the New Mexico program, but I would have to imagine that this is one of the bigger games they've had on campus in in quite a while. So I I I like them playing it home. Davis: Yeah. both of these defenses are great. However, New Mexico's defense is a little more opportunistic that leads to points for their offense. New Mexico leads the nation with a plus seventeen turnover margin, and they also lead the nation in havoc rate. And for that reason, two good defenses. But one's able to kind of take advantage of it a little more and set up the set up their offense for success. So because of that I'm gonna go New Mexico minus the the four and a half. Jackson: Anything else on this game? Davis: I think we very well could see Jackson: Another Davis: one of like I think I think there's a good chance that the winner of this game is making the playoffs. Jackson: There's a good chance, but you can't forget about old Boise over there. Davis: Boy Z in Oregon State. Jackson: yeah, I forget the Oregon State's G six. Their only losses to Texas Tech or they played Houston too. They're they're two losses, I believe, but still. Yeah. Davis: Oregon State. Jackson: But yeah. I mean i in certain models that I look at, one of them has New Mexico as the twenty-sixth best team and North Dakota State has the sixty-fourth best team. So a big difference there, in terms of of this model, but yeah, I I I just think they're both really good G six teams. I just think there's a little bit of a tier difference between New Mexico and the Bison who are coming up from FCS. I think they still have a little bit of a ways to go, whereas I think New Mexico has kind of been building that their program from a G six FBS level, and I just think they're a little bit better. So I've been on North Coast State a lot this season, but for this game I'll ride with New Mexico. Alright, next game. Number sixteen, USC at Wisconsin. This one line is USC minus three over under is forty nine and a half. What you got for this, Davis? Davis: Yeah, I'll keep this pretty simple. I think USC has one of the better offenses in the nation, led by Jaden Maiava, who's playing out of his mind recently. and then you look at the other side and Wisconsin against a pretty good defense only put up sixty six passing yards. I just don't think that there's enough firepower on Wisconsin's offense to keep up with USC's offense. I know they have a pretty good defense and I know USC's defense isn't great, but I don't think that Wisconsin can be perfect on either side of the ball to just keep up with the explosiveness from USC. 'cause they're gonna hit a player two regardless. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I'm gonna disagree with you with the pick, but I think you do have a point about USC's offense and that is a concern. I think this maybe could get sideways if USC gets out of the gates early and and jumps on and and gets a big lead. But I just think Wisconsin has kind of slept on a little bit. You know, they've had some good results. They beat Penn State, they lost a close one to UCLA and I think they're they're able to run the ball decently well in this game. I think US C's defense has shown that it has A lot of holes, literally and figure figuratively. So yeah, I I like Wisconsin to keep this close. I think it's you big game in Camp Randall. I think that's a tough place to play. And for USC, potential look ahead of spot going to Columbus next week to face Ohio State. So One concern that I have is Wisconsin's offense only scored seven points last week against UCLA. their offense ranks pretty poorly. So they don't have a lot of explosives. They're just kind of a stay ahead of the chains team, run the ball. So that's why I think if USC can get ahead it's gonna be tough for Wisconsin to come back. they're a slower moving team, kind of your vintage Wisconsin. offense and defense. So yeah. With all that being said. Davis: I agree. I agree that they're the advantage Wisconsin offense of like from a stylistic standpoint. But but Jackson: Yeah, yeah, sorry, stylistic. they don't have Monty Ball out there and and Jonathan. Davis: Yeah. But another big difference is they don't have a quarterback that's like efficient passing the ball. These are this is Colton Joseph's last three games. 18 for 38, two touchdowns and three interceptions. So below fifty percent. Nine of twenty, a hundred and forty-five yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, but still below fifty percent completion percentage. And then last week he was six of sixteen. for sixty six yards. So I mean in in an offense that's oriented around like running the ball and play action and and taking what the defense gives you, he hadn't been he hadn't done great at doing that. he is a force on the ground. so yeah, he you probably have Jackson: I was gonna say, go ahead. Davis: the stats on Jackson: I don't have the stat so I actually it's funny you're doing this because I actually made this argument against Wisconsin last week when I picked UCLA to cover the spread. I basically said that he has not thrown the ball well and UCLA's defense was pretty good stopping the run. So I hit on that and I think they'll I don't think they'll have a problem moving the ball against US C. I just think the lack of explosives could could hurt them if USC's running up and down the field and scoring all over the place. Which I don't think they'll do. I think if Wisconsin's defense can get some stops and kind of squeeze the US C offense and and control the pace of the game, I think that's where Wisconsin could get a win. But if they let USC get out and roll on, I think it's gonna be hard for them to keep up. I th I really think this game relies a lot on the Wisconsin defense to kind of slow things down, control, like I said, the pace, the tempo, and make it your style game. So If you're Wisconsin I think y you have to do that from the start if you want to Davis: Yeah, so it's actually funny enough that I was just talking about USC's offense being explosive. Wisconsin is actually in the ninety-ninth percentile of not giving up explosive plays through the air. but I'm gonna push back on that stat and you just look at the teams that they've played recently, and it's led by UCLA, who doesn't pass the ball, Penn State, whose offense and Rocco Beck has not been great. And then Michigan State, who ranks in the thirteenth percentile in explosive pass rate. So I'm saying that that number is very fraudulent and their their pass defense is more of a product of the teams that they've gone against. So I I don't I don't foresee USC having a a huge amount of trouble. Jackson: Fair point. Fair point. Anything else on this one? all right. To review, Davis and I are both on Houston plus six and a half. We're both on Ole Miss. Davis is on LSU minus seven and a half. I'm on Auburn plus seven and a half. Davis is on Tennessee. I'm on South Carolina. We're both on New Mexico. Davis is on USC minus three, and I'm on Wisconsin plus three. Last week, Davis was five and seven. I was seven and five overall. Davis Twenty four, twenty seven, and one. I am twenty seven, twenty four and one. Davis: I got a good feeling about this week. I'm breaking the five hundred barrier on the season after this week. I'm speaking it into existence. Jackson: right. Let's see it. Let's see it. Alright. John Stafford, 9884, won the comment section pick'ems this week. So congrats to you. I should have told him to text me like a little like explanation for each of these picks, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I forgot. So we'll we'll we'll get that if if I know whoever wins or if you know we'll we'll get that, or or maybe I can just reach out to whoever wins on YouTube. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: But anyways. He has NC State minus 6.5 against Stanford. Toledo minus 3 against Western Michigan. And San Diego State team total over 31.5. So Ryan the Hodhan, John Stafford, 9884. Let's see what you got. All right. Plays the week. Davis: Let's pull up some rock All right, my first play of the week. I like Texas Tech minus eleven and a half at Cincinnati. Texas Tech's been playing a lot better recently. there was kind of a narrative going around that they've really struggled. you look back at at the games that they I guess, so to speak, struggled on, and those teams ended up better than we thought. Houston, close game couple weeks ago. They're better than we thought. Oregon State, I mean, they won by double digits, but Oregon State's legit. they blew out Arizona State last week and blew out Colorado State two weeks before. I think they're hitting their groove. and I expect them to win this game big. Jackson: All right, our first play of the week, Air Force minus five and a half against Wyoming. to me, I don't know why this line was was what it was. Air Force is five and one and three and one the Mountain West had some pretty good wins. They beat UNLV last week forty one thirty one. their only loss came to North Dakota State as we mentioned a minute ago, thirty eight, thirty two. On the other side of that, Wyoming has been pretty terrible. they did get a w the win last week against NIU, but A lot of people believe NIU is one of the worst teams in college football. So I just think these two teams are very much further apart than a five and a half point spread says. So give me Air Force to beat Wyoming by more than five points. my next play of the week, Bama, minus fourteen. So this line's actually dropped at thirteen and a half, but I'll take the fourteen. I like where it's I like where we stand. So there's a lot of commentary around the Alabama offense the last two weeks and how it's just kind of fallen apart. Well, Georgia and Tennessee are two pretty dang good defenses, and I know I've said this over and over again about the Georgia game, but I don't think Alabama played the offense play necessarily bad in that game. I just think there was limited possessions, so they weren't able to score as much and they didn't have the ball as much. But there's no hiding last week. that offense against Tennessee was terrible. I think it's a get right game for Bama. They're at home against the Texas AM team that has been struggling. we saw them kind of limit Missouri's ability to pass the ball, but Bama's been pretty good if you exclude these last two games with with running the ball. So give me Bama to make a statement this weekend. I'll I'll lay the fourteen against AM. Davis: All right. for my next play of the week, I like Oregon, Illinois under fifty-two and a half. I don't think they've announced anything on Dante Moore. but if he's not in, I don't think this game gets close. Between Dylan Riola and Brock Thomas, that offense does not move the ball whatsoever. I like the under here. Alright, for my next one, I like the under between Alabama and Texas AM. kind of for the some of the reasons that you mentioned with Texas AM's offense, it's terrible. in Texas A and M's last four games, the total was fifty two, forty one, thirty-three, and forty one. And then in Alabama's last two games, it was 37 and 36. Both of these teams actually play at a pretty slow pace. Alabama's down one of its top receivers in Ryan Coleman Williams. And AM's pretty banged up too. I think this game's gonna be gonna be kind of a slow, slow game that doesn't hit the over here. Jackson: All right, last one. I'm taking Kentucky minus ten against Vandy. I think Kentucky's on fire and Vandy has lost four in a row and I they're the worst team of the SEC. I mean they kind of proved that last week. They lost Arkansas by ten points. So I I just I didn't understand this. I c I hate to keep saying that, but I I just think this one seemed a little obvious. can he mention Kentucky are on fire. Will Stein has been unbelievable as a first year head coach at Kentucky, so maybe the line is ten because it's it could be a letdown spot. You have Vandy coming into town. You're coming off of three big wins f for Kentucky. So it could be a letdown spot, but I I just think ten points is is not that many for for a Kentucky team that's just been really thriving offensively, with the exception of last week you play one of the better defenses in the country in Oklahoma. But you put up thirty five against L S U and have looked good in most ed every other game. So I like Kentucky to cover this week against Fandy. Upset check. What you got? Davis: I'll explain it for the people that are new here. every week we pick a power four team that will be upset. the spread has to be greater than two fifty. if we get the pick right, then the points from the money line is the points that we'll get. I said that pretty poorly, especially considering I said this every week. and then if they cover you get ten points for every point that they cover by. so you were rambling off about why you didn't know why the Kentucky spread was as close as it is. Well, I'm taking Vandy in my upset pick of the week and I want to push back on some of the things that you said actually. so Jackson: All right. Davis: their offense ranks eleventh in yards per game. 12th in pass yards per game and eighth in rush yards per game. Their defense ranks 14th in yards per allowed per game and 14th in pass yards per game. So you wonder, well why the hell like how the hell are they winning if the yards that they're putting up and the yards that they're allowing is towards the bottom of the SEC. And it has to do with the field position and the turnover margin. And While that is good and it's good to create turnovers, I'm not sure that that's as consistent. There's a lot of variability in turnovers, and so in my upset check of the week, I'm hoping that Vanderbilt solves the turnover problem and is able to kind of force Kentucky to drive the length of the field. You can tell that I don't really believe it either. Jackson: Alright, well you just went on and rambled on and on about how Texas Tech was actually better than people thought they were, and I'm gonna take Cincinnati to beat him this weekend as my upset pick of the week. So yeah, I don't have I don't have all the stats that you have to back Cincinnati. I just think their offense put up some points last week against West Virginia. It's a sleepy eleven AM game at home for Cincinnati. Going on the road if you're tech, you know, and those early starts is if there's ever a time to to get upset, I think maybe that's that's the one. So I'll take I'll take Cincinnati to to pull it off against Texas Tech. Davis: I know what your strategy is. You're just taking the team that plays Texas Tech every week and you're bound to get at least one win on the board if they lose. Jackson: That's just the last two weeks. I'm really just fading Davis. That's that's real what I'm really doing, but Davis: That's a good strategy. Jackson: Yeah, I know, I should have started doing that a lot earlier. But we'll see how it works this week. Alright, so a little overview at these conference standings. Just wanna kinda look casually look through talk through and and just kind of like David said earlier, look at the big picture and and see kind of where things stand. So How do you interpret this? Davis: Yeah, I wanna go back to something that we said in what the SEC breakdown episode. We didn't think that the top two teams, which were at the time Georgia and and Texas, were as good as I guess the market thought. And then we really believed in that middle tier of SEC teams. And so while I think we were right in the like macro take. I guess I was kinda wrong in the micro take because while the middle tier of the SEC has been better, it was not the teams that we expected. I sure as hell didn't expect Kentucky to be any good. I didn't expect Florida to be as good as they are. And then you have Mississippi up there, and I guess Auburn's kind of hovering in the middle. And then you you keep scrolling down, and then you have Texas down there, Texas AM towards the bottom, and Oklahoma. So From an SEC cannibalizing itself, we were very correct on that. We just didn't get the teams right. Jackson: Yeah, and like I said, I think a lot of these well you're right. First off, i if you would have shown me this and said this is what the conference standings look like midway through the season and Kentucky was second in the league, I would you know, I would say you're insane. And then you have A and Texas and Oklahoma all at the bottom. So it's just kind of you never know what the SEC. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: and in in the way some of these teams are spending and the new you know, we had a lot of new coaches in the SEC this year, so that's also a kind of a wild card. But yeah, i do you think our take about the committee valuing Davis: I was just about to bring this up. Jackson: Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead. I I figured you were, but I I was gonna cover it if you weren't. Davis: so in our like first ever episode, our take was that we thought that with the SEC going to nine game schedule, it would hurt the conference's ability to I guess maximize the amount of teams that make it into the playoff. I think this is the committee's like nightmare scenario. You're gonna have like four SEC teams with three losses that are going to be on the bubble. And not only are you going to have to like choose which of those teams are worthy from the SEC, you're also comparing them against one loss Big 12 teams, one loss Big Ten teams. So I don't envy the people on the committee. It's going to be brutal, but it's gonna be fun. And we're not even halfway through conference play. they picked a very interesting year to go to the nine game schedule. either we're gonna have three SEC teams in the playoff, which I don't think that that's the case, or we're gonna have multiple three loss SEC teams in the playoff, which would be the first time ever. And really Alabama's the only team that has three losses that made the playoff and they got their third loss in conference championship week. Jackson: Yeah, and I think I haven't really seen these playoff odds, but just kind of skimming through Alabama is actually one that stands out to me the most. they're f currently five and two. Their remaining games are Texas A and LSU, Vanderbilt and Auburn, and then a FCS school. So I'm assuming that Alabama's gonna have to win out to get into the playoffs, given that the ranked wins on their schedule is not like they w it's not gonna be like they were last year. And that is assuming Auburn won't be ranked, if Bama takes care of Auburn. And then LSU, I mean LSU still gotta play Texas, so and Auburn and Bama. So like Bama won't have many ranked wins. I'm just Davis: Yeah. Jackson: it interests me or I'm curious to why they're minus one ninety five with not being able to afford another loss. so so Davis: Yeah. Yeah. W with Alabama and L S U playing each other, I don't think the loser of that game is making it in the playoffs. and then you got Ole Miss who has the next best odds. I don't know. It's it's hard to to pick and choose which teams you make it, even if you create the narrative yourself. 'cause you just go down the list and you're saying, well, if this team beats them, then that like I would have liked like I think that Alabama and LSU are definitely two of the top eleven teams in the nation, but once it shakes out one of those two teams is one hundred percent guaranteed to have three losses. And I just don't know how how that's gonna stack up when, you know, realistically the big ten realistically the big Jackson: But then it becomes it also Go ahead, sorry. Davis: twelve could fight for three. I d I doubt it. Yeah. Jackson: The big twelve is the curveball. but going back to your point, I mean all these teams probably play each other, So Texas, let's say Texas loses to Ole Miss. That's Texas with three losses. Then LSU plays Texas and Texas beats them. That's LSU with three losses. Then LSU beats Bama, that's Bama with three losses. But who do you put? So I think you're just gonna have a lot of teams beating each other. So say you have four SEC teams with three losses. All of them can say like a team A can say I beat y team B. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Team B can say I beat Team C. So it's like how do you figure out which one to put in? So it's gonna be a mess. Davis: Yeah. It's gonna be a mess. It's just gonna be a it's Jackson: It's gonna be a freak. Davis: just gonna be a four jumbled SEC teams with three losses and and it what unfortunately what it's gonna be is who didn't lose most recently. Jackson: Yeah, I hope you're wrong on that, but yeah, I'm afraid you Davis: Which I don't I don't like that, but Jackson: Yeah, just because I don't like that way of of of making the decision, but anyways. Davis: Yeah. Like you shouldn't there shouldn't like an early win shouldn't be less valued than a later win. it is worth noting that The SEC in out-of-conference power four games is ten and two. Those two losses being Oklahoma, Michigan, and Arkansas, Utah. So another reason why even if there's three, four, five SEC teams with three losses, the SEC's been so dominant against other conferences that those SEC teams should have like the tiebreaker against other conferences, so to speak. All right, from one dominant conference to a conference that's not fared too well out of out of conference play, and that's the Big Ten. They are four and ten. probably easier to read off the wins. So Michigan, Oklahoma, Iowa over Iowa State, Northwestern over Colorado, UCLA over Cal. Those wins aren't even that impressive. Jackson: Yeah. I I really think this is a Well, it's hard because Davis: It Jackson: there's so many there's so many teams in the Big Ten that I just feel like I mean, UCLA's schedule. We looked at it a few weeks ago. Their odds are only they're plus one team to make the playoff. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Which like you know, it's pretty favorable for for UCLA through six games of the season. Davis: I don't think it's absurd now I'm not predicting this that the Big twelve gets more teams in than the Big Ten. let me l let me let me walk back Jackson: Could be right. Davis: on that. I don't think it's absurd if they get the same amount of teams in. 'Cause you look at you look at Indiana and they only have one loss to Ohio State. And then you look at UCLA and they're undefeated, and you know, they're at plus one fifteen odds to get in. So that's two teams that probably should make it. And I haven't mentioned Ohio State, who's quarterback may be out for the rest of the season. There's th the status of Julian Saiyan appears to get worse and worse by the by each day. So if if Ohio State's slips up two or three more times with their backup quarterback, I mean I don't know what's the next team that kind of fills that void. Is it USC? Is it Oregon? Jackson: I I mean Oregon plays Ohio State, do they not? Davis: Yeah, in in two weeks, which is I think on the recap video we said he may be back by then, but based on what I read today, there's like they're not ruling out that he's missing the rest of the season. And that's right in time for Dante Moore to get back. And I mean and the odds are kind of I mean, Jackson: I was gonna say I feel like Oregon could get the Davis: Corgan's at not ranked, but they have the what, fourth best odds according to this, to make the playoffs? Jackson: Yeah. Davis: So Yep, in a conference that we thought would for sure get four in, I'm not a hundred percent sold they get three in. Jackson: Well, Oregon can kinda get the get out of jail free card with kind of what you mentioned about the SEC teams and who they could take, like they could use more recency bias in terms of like how the teams looked the last, you know, three or four Davis: Yeah. Jackson: games of the season. Oregon's gonna get Dante Moore back and if they turn a corner when he comes back, I feel like the committee's gonna look at that and be like, wow, there's the organ that we all expected to begin the season, but I know he did play at the beginning of the year but still that's sometimes not how those guys think, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: yeah. Big twelve. Davis: Yeah. This is the curveball. This is this is this is the fun Jackson: Yeah. Davis: conference. I'm enjoying the Big Twelve. I mean this is like throwback two thousand ten with Baylor and Texas Tech and TCU, just kind of a a different version of it with BYU, Utah, Houston and Texas Tech. Jackson: I mean I'm if the big twelve gets four in like Davis: I I don't think there's any way they get four in. The the the case for three is that Texas Tech doesn't play BYU Jackson: But Davis: or Hu Utah the rest of the way. Utah and BYU play, but what if that's their only loss the entire way is one of those two teams. So you have an undefeated Texas Tech and an undefeated Utah or BYU. Like two of those the those two teams are getting in. Can you can you leave out a one loss? Utah team who's only loss to BYU. Like Interesting. Jackson: Yeah, I mean it definitely is a conversation we'll have to revisit in like four weeks when some of this stuff is like getting real, real. Like i if this stuff could actually happen and yeah, it it could actually happen as we stand now, but we're six games into the season, so and like we saw last week, anything can happen. Yes, UCLA, for example, is a plus one fifteen to make the playoffs 'cause they're projected to win probably the rest of their games, but you know, just because they're projected to win the rest of their games doesn't mean that's gonna happen. So yeah, it's definitely something we need to revisit because this could get interesting for sure with the Big Twelve because that, like you said, is the conference that nobody we we lit you asked me in our in our pre in our Big Twelve preview show, like, what do you think's more like like would you take Texas Tech or the field? And I think I answered Texas Tech. Davis: Yeah, I think we both answer text to stack. Jackson: So and maybe that's still the right play. I mean I know BYU just got a big win over Notre Dame, but like you said, we haven't seen Texas Tech really be tested against a against a top team. So still a lot to find out in the Big Twelve, in my opinion. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: But it's so far it is shaken out to be pretty interesting Davis: Yeah. we thought about doing a a a playoff predictions, but after thinking about it, it was honestly harder to do one now through six weeks than it was like in August. Like there's Jackson: Yeah. Davis: like w we've gone six weeks and and there's Jackson: Yeah. 'Cause then you gotta justify Davis: so much that we don't know still. I mean, this is why we love college football. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah it is. Our last conference A C C Davis: Yeah, what a what a disappointment. Jackson: But d I mean look at Wake like I Davis: No Jackson: mean if Wake's only losses to Miami Davis: Th this is one where I'm saying it'll sort itself out and Miami will be the only team that gets a Unless they lose the Jackson: Hold on. Davis: A C C conference game. 'Cause last year you didn't the A C C champion didn't even make the playoffs. So Jackson: So let me read you, Wake Forest. Let me read you their remaining schedule. All right, their home Virginia at home, Merrimack at home, at SMU, at Georgia Tech, and at home against Duke. So the only team with a number by their name is SMU on the road. If they beat SMU on the road and then they go eleven and one and win the games that they're gonna be favored in, Wake we could see a case for Wake Forest at eleven and one with their only loss to Miami to Davis: Yeah. And I I I think I think this is a Jackson: I don't know. That's it. Davis: one bid league. So you you I I think what I mean Miami still has to go to Notre Dame. and I don't think a two loss ACC champion is getting in. It gets hairy if you have an undefeated Miami that loses in the ACC championship game. That's when it starts to get crazy 'cause then the like then you you'd almost have to put in the the ACC champion. Jackson: Yeah. All right. Some Some interesting stuff. Davis: Maybe we'll do a playoff prediction in the next week's recap video. All right. Jackson: All right, you wanna you wanna share the screen and let's let's get a quick fantasy draft before Davis: Yeah. Jackson: we get out of here? Davis: All right, so this is our weekly fantasy. Jackson: dude I lost again? Davis: Yeah, you put up 68 points. You you didn't get anything out of your your receiver tight end and flex. And you had a big week from Caleb Hawkins and Gio Lopez. So I am now up five to two. Jackson, you gotta get it together, man. You started off two and one and I'm on a four-game win streak. Jackson: Yeah, no. I'm just I'm struggling the fantasy world, but we'll we'll get right this week. We'll get right. I got a I got a decent feeling. I may have said that every week Davis: Yeah. Jackson: don't go back and check, but Davis: All right. So for those that are new, this is our weekly fantasy, where we draft a player at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and flex. Once we take that player, we can't take them the rest of the year. And then once we take a player on that team, we can't take another player from that team. and then at the end of the week, add up all the points. currently up Five and two loser has to wear the jersey or team gear of the winner at the end of this. So we'll be fun to see Jackson and Auburn. I'm now confidently saying. All right, so I won last week. I will get the first pick. I will take Aiden Childs from Northwestern. I'm just going with the team that plays Rutgers. He hadn't been great passing the ball, but you know, Northwestern runs the hell out of him. So hopefully he can score through the ground. Jackson: Yeah, I actually looked at some northwestern guys 'cause I was gonna do that same thing but couldn't find anyone. Alright, give me Noah Fafita out of Arizona. He was my second choice. Davis: That's a good thing. Jackson: That guy also puts up crazy numbers passing the ball, so please Noah Fafita, I do not want to wear an Auburn shirt, so I need you to have a big wig. Davis: Here up again. Jackson: Alright, my running back, I'm gonna go Kendrick Raphael at SMU. guy's been having some months or weeks on the ground. and they play Cal this week and Cal has just Cal's look terrible. I mean, th I had a higher we both had high expect high expectations for Cal to start the season and they've really just kind of fallen off a cliff. things don't seem to be looking up in that program. Some drama things that I've that I've heard about. So I'll take I'll take Kendrick Rfield to have a big day for SMU. Davis: All right. I will take Malachi Tony, one of the best receivers in the league. playing Virginia this week. Virginia's past game has struggled or past defense has struggled, but I think they're they're just good enough that Miami will have to, you know, play all four quarters. Next pick I'll take UCLA's running back Wayne Knight against against Michigan State. Michigan State's terrible. U C L A runs the ball a lot. you took last week. I think you only got eleven points out of Didn't have a great week, but Wisconsin's rush defense is much better than Michigan State's. Jackson: Why is it I always like your team better than mine? I I'll take I'll take Cam Coleman. If not now, then win, brother. We'll Davis: Yeah. Jackson: miss his secondary has It's look gettable at times, like I mentioned early on in the season, but yeah, they've kind of straightened things out. They did allow I mean, they Missouri scored three points against them last week, but they did allow over three hundred yards through the year to Austin Simmons. So I know Arch is struggling. Texas has really been on the struggle bus, but to me if you're gonna try to get him going, I think the first place you look is Cam Coleman. So Alright, tight end. I'll take a page out of your book. Give me Rocky Beers, Tight End. First week I'm not going chat GPT for my tight end. So Davis, let's see, let's see what this guy's got. He did good for you last week. How many points did he score? Davis: I think he had like twelve or thirteen. He it was like forty yards and a touchdown, I believe. Thirty yards and touchdown. Yeah. Yeah, Jackson: Solid production for a tight end. Davis: it wasn't it wasn't Patrick Overmeyer with forty eight points or whatever it was, but he had a decent day. All right, so for flex I'm gonna go with Gavin Freeman, slot receiver at Baylor. Kansas Baylor expected to be a high scoring game. This is DJ Lagway's go to target. I like my team a lot so far and don't wanna waste a elite player. So I think I can already win the week and don't think I need to go big here. I'll save it for another week. Jackson: Dang, I'd kinda taking a shot at this poor Gavin Freeman guy. I feel bad for him. Davis: He's pretty good. He he he lit up Auburn. I mean he's like five seven slot receiver that they throw to fifteen times a game. He'll have ten catches for seventy five yards. Jackson: All right, last pick my flex, I'll take Trent Mosley at a USC. nine receptions for 111 yards and a tutty against Penn State. Davis: Alright. I guess you're good there, right? Alright, for my tight for Jackson: Yeah, I'm done. Davis: my tight end, I will take Caleb Odom from Old Myth. Jackson: I almost took him. Davis: Yeah, he's he's like their like receiving tight end. He Jackson: I won't do that one. Tell. Davis: he like never plays in line, but he's been I mean th whenever he's in the game they actually throw it to him a good bit. so I don't expect a huge game out of him, but I do expect some respectable numbers. Jackson: Yeah, he scored a touchdown last week and that was kind of that's part of my like fantasy eval. If a guy scores last week that doesn't usually score, I don't think he'll score the next week. So he was actually my first choice that I was gonna take because I feel like when you're playing against a good defense like they are in Texas, at the tight end's usually where you look to a lot. So good pick, like I said, I like your team better than mine, but whatever. We'll run through real quick. Davis: I mean, Malachi Tony can go for fifty and it won't even matter. Yep. All right. So Jackson: Yeah, probably outscore my whole team. So Davis: at quarterback, Aiden Childs, Northwestern, he goes up against Rutgers. Then I have UCLA's running back, Wayne Knight, against Michigan State. Malachi Tony against Pitt. And then I have Ole Miss's tight end Caleb Odin Odom against Texas. And then to round it out, Baylor's wide receiver. Gavin Freeman at my flex and he goes up against Kansas. Jackson: Alright, my quarterback, Noah Fafita, Arizona, playing against Iowa State. Kendrick Rafael, running back, SMU, going up against Cal. Cam Coleman, Texas, playing Ole Miss. My tight end is Rocky Beers out of Oklahoma, playing Mississippi State. And my flex is Trent Mosley, receiver at USC, playing at Wisconsin. Must win for me this week. So fingers crossed, everybody. Davis: Yeah. Six and two you almost have to win one out. Jackson: Yeah. pretty close. Davis: Whoo that was a long Jackson: All right. Davis: we cut the games in half and we still went long. Jackson: I know. Yeah, that was a long one. all right. Anything anything else to add, Davis? Davis: make sure y'all comment your picks for the comment section pick Jackson: I wanna like I was gonna say like if you're if you're still watching, I want you to comment like the number five or something. Like I wanna see how many people get to this point in the video. so yeah, if you're still if you're still watching, comment the most just a random number. It has to be three digit number. So like one seventy two. Something like that. Just comment a random number if you're still watching and Davis: Does anybody even know that we play this mic check fantasy game? Has it does anybody know we've done that before? We do it every week, guys. If you if you like that and you've Jackson: I don't know. I don't know. Yeah. Davis: made it this far, we've we've done that draft every week. So Jackson: You know, we have we study every week and grind this draft out. So tune in to the end of our videos if you're if you're interested in that. But yeah. thanks again for watching. like and subscribe, comment on the video, and until then we will see you next time. Davis: So