Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Institutions Panic📉October 10th Crash Anniversary
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: 1010 just around the corner is a crashiversary set up
- 0:03Speaker 1: for what the market could be facing. Maybe that is
- 0:06Speaker 1: why we're seeing the market start to look a little fearful.
- 0:09Speaker 1: Today we'll break it down for you. I want to
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- 0:49Speaker 1: it out. Tell them we sent you.
- 0:51Speaker 2: And I want to start with this. And that is
- 0:54Speaker 2: the chart.
- 0:55Speaker 1: Let's go over to the Bitcoin chart right here. And
- 0:57Speaker 1: you can kind of see we've put a couple of
- 0:58Speaker 1: major events on here. This one is the major event
- 1:02Speaker 1: last year that pretty much set Bitcoin in a spiral
- 1:06Speaker 1: all the way down to its low at around 60K
- 1:08Speaker 1: happening back in June of this year. So you could
- 1:11Speaker 1: look at the situation happening back in October of last
- 1:16Speaker 1: year as being one of the catalysts that maybe traders
- 1:19Speaker 1: are looking at right now. And there's more to this, though,
- 1:22Speaker 1: because I think the key is what happens in October? Well,
- 1:27Speaker 1: typically you get these October surprises right before midterms or
- 1:31Speaker 1: major elections, and that might be actually in play as well.
- 1:36Speaker 1: So you've got OpenAI and Anthropic, both as well as
- 1:39Speaker 1: other AI companies that are now privately preparing for a
- 1:43Speaker 1: potential catastrophic AI event that could trigger public outrage. This
- 1:48Speaker 1: is a concern to me. nearing, especially getting close to
- 1:52Speaker 1: a midterm election. And all of the things that we've
- 1:55Speaker 1: seen leading up to this, because there's a lot of
- 1:57Speaker 1: things that have been happening with the Hugging Face hack,
- 2:00Speaker 1: what we've seen with these rogue AI agents, what we're
- 2:03Speaker 1: seeing now with essentially leaders of these companies talking about this,
- 2:08Speaker 1: almost as though they're prepping something. And that always concerns
- 2:12Speaker 1: me when we have October brewing. And I want to
- 2:16Speaker 1: just make Get very clear. I think crypto is actually
- 2:19Speaker 1: one of the safer places.
- 2:21Speaker 2: Here's Jesus. He talks about it right here.
- 2:22Speaker 1: Sold all my crypto, converted it in fiat, putting it
- 2:24Speaker 1: back into that 30-year-old banking system. 25, but it's really
- 2:29Speaker 1: 30-year-old dated encryption systems. And that's the point, is that
- 2:33Speaker 1: the banks may actually become a major vector. If AI
- 2:37Speaker 1: is going to have a chance to go in and
- 2:39Speaker 1: do something nefarious.
- 2:41Speaker 2: Where would you go target? I think you would target mainstream.
- 2:45Speaker 1: Crypto, I think, is ironically in a better place, even
- 2:49Speaker 1: though we have seen some challenges in crypto over the
- 2:52Speaker 1: past couple of years. I think it's actually in a
- 2:54Speaker 1: better place just because of what it means. Now, let's
- 2:58Speaker 1: recall what actually happened back on October 10th of last year.
- 3:03Speaker 1: At 4.50 p.m., this was October 10th, traditional markets were closed,
- 3:07Speaker 1: and then Trump launched a new salvo into the China
- 3:12Speaker 1: and U.S.
- 3:12Speaker 2: Trade war.
- 3:13Speaker 1: That was the first time we saw a real move
- 3:17Speaker 1: into the trade war that put a lot of pressure
- 3:19Speaker 1: on China, and immediately underneath that, you had, of course,
- 3:23Speaker 1: the market pulling out. So, obviously, what you looked at
- 3:27Speaker 1: there that was one of the catalysts is the trade
- 3:29Speaker 1: war war that was happening between the U.S.
- 3:32Speaker 2: And China.
- 3:32Speaker 1: And this really pointed to the trade deficit. And if
- 3:35Speaker 1: you go back in here in 2025, this was, of course,
- 3:38Speaker 1: the deepest that it had been. And primarily, this was
- 3:41Speaker 1: done because of the front running in the market. What
- 3:44Speaker 1: I mean by that is suppliers of all types were
- 3:46Speaker 1: buying quickly and as much as they could to deal
- 3:50Speaker 1: with what was incoming And that was these trade impacts
- 3:55Speaker 1: in terms of tariffs. And of course, all that laid
- 3:57Speaker 1: into the market. Then you had the pullback. Everybody thought, oh,
- 4:00Speaker 1: it's working. But in reality, it just reset it because
- 4:03Speaker 1: that was essentially a supply chain shock that kind of
- 4:07Speaker 1: opened up into the market. So in reality, not much
- 4:10Speaker 1: better position, but it did damage the market.
- 4:13Speaker 2: In a big way.
- 4:14Speaker 1: So when you look at other scenarios that could be
- 4:17Speaker 1: impending here, what could hit us on 1010? That's the
- 4:20Speaker 1: concern everybody's worried about. Last time, it was tariffs. So
- 4:24Speaker 1: not necessarily the case here. Even if you look at
- 4:27Speaker 1: the diplomatic agreement for lower tariffs by Canada or with Canada,
- 4:31Speaker 1: even that is somewhat reserved. And the point being is
- 4:34Speaker 1: that we're aware of these things now. I don't think
- 4:37Speaker 1: the market is trying to set this up. So it's
- 4:39Speaker 1: going to be something different. if in fact we get
- 4:42Speaker 1: any kind of major debauchery happening in the market.
- 4:46Speaker 2: And that, of course, gets into the next thing.
- 4:48Speaker 1: And that was the macro shock, because it wasn't necessarily
- 4:52Speaker 1: an exchange failure that drove what happened into the $ 19
- 4:56Speaker 1: billion liquidation cascade. In fact, about 75% of that was
- 5:01Speaker 1: still in play. The exchange said roughly 75% of the
- 5:04Speaker 1: total liquidations had already taken place by the point this
- 5:08Speaker 1: was playing out. So you could see this was all
- 5:11Speaker 1: about leverage. And I think that's the concern right now
- 5:13Speaker 1: we have. I'm not so much concerned about the market
- 5:16Speaker 1: right now because the market has been much more resilient
- 5:20Speaker 1: in understanding how these things are hitting. I'm more concerned
- 5:23Speaker 1: about some sort of unusual activity, whether it's a major hack,
- 5:28Speaker 1: some sort of major outage, an issue that could hit
- 5:31Speaker 1: the financial system.
- 5:33Speaker 2: All those kind of things.
- 5:33Speaker 1: And with the amount of things that we're seeing from AI,
- 5:37Speaker 1: this concerns me the most.
- 5:38Speaker 2: I want to go to a clip real quick.
- 5:40Speaker 1: And this is Tom Lee talking about what happened in
- 5:44Speaker 1: October of last year.
- 5:45Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 5:46Speaker 3: In our view, tokenization is a far bigger driver than
- 5:49Speaker 3: other bull markets. In 2016, 2017, it was an ICO boom,
- 5:51Speaker 3: primarily retail. In the 2019 to 2021 era, it was
- 5:52Speaker 3: the NFTs, primarily retail. Last year was a stablecoin boom,
- 6:03Speaker 3: but it got cut short because of the October 10th
- 6:06Speaker 3: massive debt deleveraging slash auto deleveraging event. But it's different now.
- 6:11Speaker 3: BlackRock wants to put most of its assets as tokenized assets,
- 6:15Speaker 3: and it's a huge addressable market. But just the top three, stocks, bonds,
- 6:19Speaker 3: and credits. be $ 160 trillion. For every dollar that's been
- 6:23Speaker 3: tokenized or TVL'd on a L1 blockchain, it creates about
- 6:27Speaker 3: $ 1 value.
- 6:28Speaker 2: For the blockchain.
- 6:29Speaker 3: So if 10% moves on-chain, that creates a $ 16 trillion market.
- 6:35Speaker 3: And keep in mind, crypto is an AI downstream story.
- 6:37Speaker 3: We've talked about the sport, but as memory and chips corrected,
- 6:41Speaker 3: the Mag7 software and crypto should gain, and that's exactly
- 6:43Speaker 3: how it's played out.
- 6:45Speaker 2: And we know why.
- 6:46Speaker 1: Back to the point there, you do know why. And
- 6:48Speaker 1: I think this is the thing. When you look at
- 6:50Speaker 1: the market right now, the downstream of it for crypto
- 6:53Speaker 1: is very AI-centric. That's where it also gets a little
- 6:56Speaker 1: bit concerning. Just as a reminder, what happened on the crash,
- 7:00Speaker 1: this was $ 19 billion in terms of liquidations. You also
- 7:04Speaker 1: had Bitcoin's open interest, which was rebuilding after its anniversary now.
- 7:08Speaker 1: But this looks very eerie.
- 7:10Speaker 2: Right there.
- 7:11Speaker 1: That's the comparison of this year versus last year. The
- 7:14Speaker 1: Bitcoin open interest, 4.1% in five days. We're at 4%
- 7:17Speaker 1: in seven. The open interest market cap, 3.7% versus 3.2%.
- 7:22Speaker 1: And then ETH open interest at 11.3% versus 10.4%. So
- 7:27Speaker 1: I'm not saying that there is anything brewing. What I
- 7:30Speaker 1: am saying is that you always have to look at
- 7:32Speaker 1: these kinds of components because they are sometimes rhyming in
- 7:37Speaker 1: terms of how markets react.
- 7:39Speaker 2: One good thing is when you look at these.
- 7:41Speaker 1: Insurance funds that are in these crypto exchanges, Binance, of course,
- 7:45Speaker 1: leading the way right there with their insurance fund and
- 7:47Speaker 1: the history there, of course, was the 1010 event that,
- 7:51Speaker 1: of course, depleted that. It is now pretty much replenished itself.
- 7:55Speaker 1: So we're back at another go here, not saying that
- 7:58Speaker 1: that would happen. But the point is, is that the
- 8:00Speaker 1: market has recovered and been able to deal with this.
- 8:03Speaker 1: So let's take a look at the crypto fear and greed,
- 8:05Speaker 1: because that also kind of has unique alignment here. This
- 8:08Speaker 1: was 10.7 right there. You can kind of see the
- 8:11Speaker 1: index was around 55. That was when it occurred. We
- 8:14Speaker 1: were actually in a good position. I think in general,
- 8:16Speaker 1: the market was looking up. And of course, that is
- 8:19Speaker 1: when we saw basically a full-blown deflation. Well, we're setting
- 8:25Speaker 1: back in at that same period of time, almost at
- 8:28Speaker 1: the same exact spot. So All these things, again, start
- 8:32Speaker 1: to concern me, especially now that you have new attack
- 8:35Speaker 1: vectors that are starting to brew. And that gets into
- 8:38Speaker 1: a couple of points. One is Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs. This,
- 8:42Speaker 1: of course, is spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows. This
- 8:46Speaker 1: is the largest outflow since June 25. That's another major
- 8:51Speaker 1: factor because now you have institutions absolutely evacuating the market
- 8:57Speaker 1: Question is, does this continue for the next few days?
- 9:00Speaker 1: Do we continue to see spot Bitcoin ETFs, ETH ETFs
- 9:04Speaker 1: starting to outflow and affect the market even further? Even
- 9:07Speaker 1: though we nipped around 80K, the real question is, how
- 9:10Speaker 1: does this hold over the weekend? So we're going to
- 9:12Speaker 1: be watching that one very closely. U.S. hiring stalled at
- 9:15Speaker 1: around 29,000 jobs. We're also getting updated data around GDP.
- 9:21Speaker 1: I think data that comes in right before midterms, this
- 9:23Speaker 1: is all somewhat manipulated, in my opinion, because you've got
- 9:27Speaker 1: a major election that's going to brew. Now, you have
- 9:30Speaker 1: Trump out here on Truth Social, and the one thing
- 9:33Speaker 1: he's saying is that, hey, we're not going to be
- 9:35Speaker 1: attacking Iran any time prior to the midterm elections. I
- 9:37Speaker 1: don't know if that means that we are going to
- 9:40Speaker 1: attack Iran, because in most cases, Trump doesn't actually give
- 9:45Speaker 1: you the real narrative that they're planning to do for
- 9:49Speaker 1: obvious reasons, but the point being is it starts to
- 9:52Speaker 1: get into This right here, which is where Trump is
- 9:55Speaker 1: hinting at a big surprise to come ahead of.
- 9:58Speaker 2: The midterm election. What he means by that is still unknown.
- 10:03Speaker 1: And it's always an October surprise. We've seen this on
- 10:05Speaker 1: almost every single election out there. And I think this
- 10:09Speaker 1: is another factor that plays into it that we have
- 10:12Speaker 1: to consider into the markets. And maybe the markets themselves
- 10:15Speaker 1: are a bit spooked in reference to what is happening
- 10:18Speaker 1: right now, both on a global side, but also from
- 10:21Speaker 1: an investable class side of things. So let's take a
- 10:24Speaker 1: look at some of Citrini's research. This is their investable
- 10:28Speaker 1: RWA stack. It just shows you the full layer here.
- 10:30Speaker 1: I mean, these are all the best of the best
- 10:33Speaker 1: out there. You've got Securitize leading the way right there.
- 10:36Speaker 1: Backpack over there on terms of insurance and legal ownership.
- 10:39Speaker 1: You've got the chains and rails distribution, all the major names,
- 10:43Speaker 1: Circle and Athena over on the cash and stable coin side,
- 10:46Speaker 1: liquidity markets, DeFi.
- 10:48Speaker 2: You recognize all of these.
- 10:50Speaker 1: These are the ones I'm concerned with because of the
- 10:52Speaker 1: spook that the market could generate here with just any
- 10:55Speaker 1: kind of issue that occurs on these kind of dates,
- 10:59Speaker 1: and especially when it's this young, meaning just one year ago.
- 11:02Speaker 1: And the crypto market Kind of works in these cycles.
- 11:05Speaker 1: It's always looking at things just like this because of
- 11:08Speaker 1: the sentiment that traders kind of lean in on.
- 11:11Speaker 2: Another alarming note was this right here.
- 11:14Speaker 1: And that is Ledger is now getting reportedly hit with
- 11:17Speaker 1: another major exploit. And it lost right now around 80
- 11:22Speaker 1: losses were around 86 million. Now, granted, this did not
- 11:25Speaker 1: happen from an exploit inside Ledger. This was in one
- 11:28Speaker 1: of their supply or one of their resellers. And That's
- 11:32Speaker 1: a concern because that tied into a supply chain issue.
- 11:36Speaker 1: And this is the concern that I always have about
- 11:38Speaker 1: these wallets is that if you don't control everything from
- 11:41Speaker 1: the soup to the end, you just have problems going forward.
- 11:46Speaker 1: One thing I will say is just look at where
- 11:49Speaker 1: your source of any wallets come from. Third-party resellers, absolutely
- 11:53Speaker 1: a no-go. It has to be direct from the websites.
- 11:56Speaker 1: or direct from the supplier. And the issue I think
- 11:59Speaker 1: you have to consider is just an example of this
- 12:02Speaker 1: right here, which is where Ledger's doing some damage control.
- 12:05Speaker 1: We recommend Ledger users who purchased from this reseller in
- 12:08Speaker 1: the last 90 days to not initiate setup if you've
- 12:12Speaker 1: not done so yet. So that's pretty bad for all
- 12:15Speaker 1: of these, because all that stock now is dead. That's
- 12:17Speaker 1: just dead stock out there. There's going to be sales
- 12:19Speaker 1: on it. Watch for any sales. I wouldn't take any
- 12:22Speaker 1: sale deals on this. But this is a bad look
- 12:25Speaker 1: on Ledger in general, and it hurts, I think, the
- 12:28Speaker 1: self-custody market, with the exception of maybe a handful out
- 12:31Speaker 1: there that have been able to kind of lock up
- 12:34Speaker 1: on being able to create the keys at origination point,
- 12:37Speaker 1: which is what Tangent is doing.
- 12:39Speaker 3: So.
- 12:40Speaker 1: I don't like that in the sense that what we've
- 12:42Speaker 1: seen so far is Tangent kind of seem one of
- 12:44Speaker 1: the only solutions. Sure, there's software wallets out there, very effective,
- 12:48Speaker 1: but even those have a certain amount of attack vector
- 12:51Speaker 1: just because of the component of AI and agents starting
- 12:55Speaker 1: to move into these.
- 12:56Speaker 2: So I'm concerned about.
- 12:57Speaker 1: All of these issues right now. Now you add in
- 13:00Speaker 1: the whole issue of the Q Day.
- 13:03Speaker 2: So you guys.
- 13:03Speaker 1: Remember we did a video and kind of revealed Justin
- 13:06Speaker 1: Drake's statement last week in reference to Q Day and
- 13:09Speaker 1: the fact that Ethereum could be in a little bit
- 13:12Speaker 1: of a vector problem, meaning an attack issue, still a concern.
- 13:17Speaker 1: And they accelerated. That's the biggest concern of all. And
- 13:20Speaker 1: I think this has sparked a debate out there online.
- 13:23Speaker 1: The CEO of Starkware basically said, hey, we're going to
- 13:26Speaker 1: be ready, but Ethereum may not be able to beat
- 13:29Speaker 1: and prepare fast enough for QDA. A lot of these
- 13:31Speaker 1: companies have a stake in the game, all right? They're
- 13:35Speaker 1: talking their own book. Just remember that when you're looking
- 13:39Speaker 1: at some of these statements out there on X or
- 13:40Speaker 1: whatever you guys do in terms of finding your news,
- 13:43Speaker 1: because here he is right here getting a lot of
- 13:45Speaker 1: inquiries conveniently from custodians and institutional players about this. So
- 13:50Speaker 1: this almost looks as though you generate FUD and then
- 13:54Speaker 1: you solve the FUD problem. And those are not good
- 13:57Speaker 1: things anytime we see that in the market. And we've
- 13:59Speaker 1: seen it in all kinds of tech industries from the
- 14:02Speaker 1: beginning of security all the way into what we're seeing
- 14:05Speaker 1: right now in AI. And I think the issue faced
- 14:09Speaker 1: with crypto actually is better than that of what we
- 14:13Speaker 1: have seen with almost every other system out there. Think
- 14:17Speaker 1: of every critical system, banking, power grid, medical, you could
- 14:22Speaker 1: name any of them. And I think their attack vector
- 14:25Speaker 1: is probably more likely from what we could see on
- 14:28Speaker 1: a major AI event than it would be for crypto
- 14:31Speaker 1: for one reason. And that is very simple. Crypto is
- 14:35Speaker 1: much more nimble, meaning we've already dealt with a lot
- 14:37Speaker 1: of this kind of stuff. Most of these L1s are
- 14:39Speaker 1: already in play on developing. And the key here is
- 14:43Speaker 1: the rollout capability that an Ethereum could do, an Avalanche
- 14:47Speaker 1: could do to be able to affect the situation much
- 14:51Speaker 1: more efficiently than the supply chain and the layers and
- 14:55Speaker 1: layers of old technology that is riding across all of
- 14:59Speaker 1: these other critical systems out there. So that is a
- 15:01Speaker 1: major concern of mine. And I've got a clip here
- 15:04Speaker 1: at the end I want to play here because this
- 15:05Speaker 1: is Vitalik, and he really kind of hits it home
- 15:09Speaker 1: around what Ethereum and or any strategy needs to consider
- 15:14Speaker 1: for the future of all of this.
- 15:15Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 15:17Speaker 4: What's keeping your personal data safe, for example? That's a
- 15:20Speaker 4: question for the operating system. It's a question for any
- 15:24Speaker 4: AI you have that is processing the data. It's also
- 15:27Speaker 4: a question for the hardware. SI, some people say that
- 15:31Speaker 4: it's super intelligence. I think there is another SI that
- 15:33Speaker 4: matters just as much. This is element 14 on the
- 15:37Speaker 4: periodic table. It's silicon. The silicon that all of our
- 15:40Speaker 4: hardware is made out of. Before, we would say, not
- 15:44Speaker 4: your keys, not your coins. Soon we're going to say,
- 15:47Speaker 4: not your silicon, not your keys. For a system to
- 15:51Speaker 4: be secure, the hardware that it is written on and
- 15:54Speaker 4: the hardware that links any consequence of the system to
- 15:57Speaker 4: the real world must also be safe. We have to
- 16:01Speaker 4: think about everything that we build as a full stack
- 16:04Speaker 4: at every layer, going all the way up to the user,
- 16:07Speaker 4: all the way to the left to the chain, all
- 16:09Speaker 4: the way to the right to the internet, and all
- 16:11Speaker 4: the way down to the hardware. What is a hardware
- 16:14Speaker 4: wallet today is going to become the universal secure device
- 16:17Speaker 4: of tomorrow. These are big problems that the world will
- 16:21Speaker 4: have to deal with and probably many of these problems
- 16:24Speaker 4: the blockchain world will have to deal with first. We
- 16:29Speaker 4: have seen AIs take down all kinds of websites. We've
- 16:33Speaker 4: seen AIs discover bugs and exploits in all kind of software.
- 16:40Speaker 4: At the same time, Ethereum blockchain has not gone down.
- 16:44Speaker 1: So what Vitalik was getting at right there, I think
- 16:46Speaker 1: is right. And that is not your silicon, not your keys.
- 16:49Speaker 1: This is also going to move into other areas of
- 16:52Speaker 1: your own personal life. And that's including your data, your thoughts,
- 16:55Speaker 1: all sorts of scenarios of your collections. You name anything
- 16:58Speaker 1: of value that pertains to an individual. It's going to
- 17:02Speaker 1: start to migrate, I think, into maybe a centralized stack,
- 17:06Speaker 1: but yet decentralized, and that is in the way of Ethereum.
- 17:10Speaker 1: So think about that. If you look at the attack
- 17:12Speaker 1: vectors that are happening in every major cloud flare, centralized database,
- 17:20Speaker 1: all of what we're seeing around banking institutions that are
- 17:23Speaker 1: seeing breaches all of the time, the key is if
- 17:27Speaker 1: you get a major one, Every time that one of
- 17:30Speaker 1: those happens versus every time that it doesn't happen on Ethereum,
- 17:34Speaker 1: this is only bullish, I think, for blockchain. And the
- 17:37Speaker 1: advancements and the capability of something like an Ethereum, a Solana,
- 17:42Speaker 1: an Avalanche, or others are going to be able to
- 17:45Speaker 1: deal with a lot of these onslaughts much easier, much
- 17:48Speaker 1: more nimble, and much more effective. And I think that
- 17:51Speaker 1: is the killer app of what blockchain brings to the market.
- 17:55Speaker 1: And maybe, just maybe, Wall Street is starting to recognize
- 17:59Speaker 1: it as well. If you like this video, hit like
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