Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Greeley Strike Update | Cattle Talk March 20th, 2026

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Greeley Strike Update | Cattle Talk March 20th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Cattle Talk Podcast.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Your weekly breakdown of cattle market fundamentals, key news, and the insight shaping the industry.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves potential risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: All right, this is Mike Minor.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jace with us here today.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: This is a Cattle Talk podcast.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: I want to get this question out of the way right away, Jace.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, a lot of talk recently about packer margins, greeley.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Let's just walk through this situation.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: I want you to walk me through how this is working, what's going on, and just talk to me about packer margins and leverage right now to start off with.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so I think the story goes all the way back to last November when um Lexington went down.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: When they closed Lexington down, people kind of wrote it off.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_02: That was the bottom of the cattle market that weekend.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: We rallied since then, didn't pay much attention to it, had strong cash all all the way through February here.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_02: And now we're starting to run into some headwinds on that front.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: We've got cutout rallying sharply, we've got cash tipping over and heading lower.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: I think I think a big a big thing is there that we didn't when Greeley closed down.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think we fully appreciated the shutdown of Lexington.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: Like I don't think that was in everybody's mind how that was.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: That was the start of us losing leverage, is what you're saying.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_02: And then and then on top of that, now you have Greeley, you have Amarillo that's at half of the capacity that they were before.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Granted, we've got small facilities that are picking up some of that, but I think that that loss of leverage, and then yeah, you've got Greeley down.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_02: So JBS really has not been in the cash market, and that's you know, the other two don't want to lead it right now.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: One of the things I've noticed is you've seen choice cutout go over$400 here.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's helping a bit with cash prices staying flat or a little bit lower.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: But the last few times we've seen margins, I'll have you pull up Packer margins.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: The last few times we've seen them radically improve like this, the Packers adjusted accordingly and very quickly.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: They reacted fast, they upped their kills this time around.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't appear to be the story, does it, Jace?
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_02: No, it doesn't.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: And I think part of that's ability too, you know, with with Lexington, like we said, that they're gonna struggle to do that as much.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_02: But I do I do think that they're going to try and I think they're gonna try and capitalize on this.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_02: I it's it's the right time of the year to try to capitalize on.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_02: And and Greeley, two weeks ago, they would have said they would have loved to stay shut down.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean they're not losing money anymore while everybody else is.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_02: Well now now they aren't getting to now they aren't getting to dance.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: So is this a coincidence?
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: Like it's just odd timing to me that this occurs.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: Packer margins all of a sudden go positive the moment we have the Greeley shutdown.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, I I think I think it was just I think it was just leverage on their side.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: But interesting.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's that's one of the things that seems to be popping up more than anything else, other than the Iran conflict, but we can get to that in a minute here.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: Uh what else do you have to say right now about just supply?
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, numbers are still really low.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what do you think on that front?
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, numbers are low, and you know, we've talked about it on this podcast too that we were we were putting more weight on them, and so we didn't run into the same cattle that we ran into last year and tipped the cash over until about a month later.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think I think that's what we're seeing right now, and I I do I do believe that we'll we'll come out of this, and I I don't think we'll be full of cattle here for too much longer.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: Are you seeing anything for retention at this point?
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: I don't our indicators on the on the slaughter side or on the harvest side wouldn't wouldn't be showing a ton yet, but that's not until you know, if they're retaining a heifer now, that wouldn't be evident until August through November.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean it's but I think I think we're seeing that in the sale barns.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_02: A lot of heifers are getting sold, advertised as bangs vaccinated.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_02: You have you have people that would usually just be feeding some cattle that are starting to breed a few of them to try and get a premium out of out of what they're doing.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think I think you're starting to see that opportunity being used.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: There's some very expensive heifers getting sold that I would imagine are not being killed, that's for sure.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that would be my thought, too.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, okay.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: Let's dive into the Iran conflict a little bit.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: I want you to tell us a few of the takeaways you have for the cattle producers in the room and what impacts this could be having.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so oil, oil high, people spending$10,$12,$15 more when they fuel up, it definitely cuts into your budget for.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you might not go out for that steak on Saturday.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_02: You might just end up fueling up your vehicle.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean, it's just a it's just a a change there from what we've been seeing.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_02: But on the other hand, we do have we do have less beef for the first time you know in a while.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_02: You know, prior to this, in this cycle, we've been able to make up for the less beef just by weights and imports and imports.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: And we still are we're importing more, but but the weight thing is no longer keeping up with our domestic drop in production.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, but I I think I think you continue to see a little bit of strain on the consumer with these high oil prices, and I obviously largely driven by Iran, but because really, if you look at it, our consumers are sitting in a decent spot, other than some of this conflict.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, other than concerns with inflation regarding energy prices, GDP's up, unemployment's low, like uh there's no other really alarms going off when it comes to the economy.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: So at this point, it's really just if there's uncertainty, it's all about this right now, I think, in this uh in this market.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: How about on the input side of uh of cattle here?
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: Do you think that's finally having an impact?
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I think if you're asking about like crush margins and that's corn corn, yeah.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: That that is having an impact.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_02: So we've seen feeder cattle trade corn for the first time in a while.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Like a long time.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_02: A long time.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_02: It doesn't it doesn't really matter at these higher prices when corn is four dollars or four seventy-five.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that's yeah, that's that's not a huge difference.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: But when you start talking about five dollar corn, it's we've seen the impact for the first time in several years on that front, and it has made feeders cheaper and maybe even a little cheaper than they than they should have dropped just with the corn.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: Any money flow concerns here?
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we've held a long position in the cattle market for a very long time.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: Are you concerned about further liquidation here?
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: I guess today was kind of encouraging when we were down on the equities, up on oil and cattle.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely cattle maintained green.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: That was a that was a good day.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh looking forward, if you had a list of a few things, uh obviously the Iran conflict, their impact that has with massive long liquidation if that occurs.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, yeah, another couple things here would be the Packers' incentive to kill more cattle.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: How how long is that probably gonna take is a question at this point for them to turn back on pretty hard.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, what are a few other things you'll be following here in the next couple weeks?
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_02: We'll be watching cash pretty closely.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_02: Cash last week was you know 235 almost everywhere.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_02: A lot of pressure on that because of positive basis and just the Packers, the Packers were exploiting that.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um and you're starting to see a little more firmness on the asking side.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_02: The producers are wanting wanting a little more, and I uh they might be able to get it in the south this year.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_02: Pretty much steady week over week, isn't it?
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_02: For the most part here by the end.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe a dollar or two stronger on the on the dress side up north, but yeah, pretty well steady.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thank you for your time today, Jace.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate it.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Mike.