Latest / Best of LinkedIn: Digital Transformation & Tech / Best of LinkedIn: Defense Tech CW 46/ 47
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 0: provided by Thomas Allgeier and Frennus, based on the most relevant posts on LinkedIn about defense tech in CW-Forty-Six and Forty-Seven.
- 0:07Speaker 0: Frennus is a B-to-B market research company that equips product and strategy teams with market and competitive intelligence across the defense industry.
- 0:16Speaker 0: Welcome back to the Deep Dive.
- 0:19Speaker 0: Today, we're jumping straight into the strategic shifts we're seeing in defense tech, all based on the professional conversations from LinkedIn in calendar weeks, forty-six and forty-seven.
- 0:28Speaker 1: And looking at the material, one thing is just crystal clear.
- 0:31Speaker 1: There is a fundamental pivot happening right now.
- 0:33Speaker 0: A huge one.
- 0:34Speaker 0: Yeah.
- 0:34Speaker 1: We're moving away from this old model of just buying, you know, single pieces of hardware.
- 0:39Speaker 1: The whole conversation now is about integrated system.
- 0:41Speaker 0: It's all about integration.
- 0:42Speaker 0: Software, factories, networks.
- 0:45Speaker 0: Even capital markets are being treated as core technologies now.
- 0:47Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 0:48Speaker 1: And the posts we've seen give really concrete examples of this.
- 0:51Speaker 1: We're talking new drones, submarines, new comm systems.
- 0:54Speaker 1: So it's
- 0:55Speaker 0: not just theory.
- 0:55Speaker 0: You can see it in the metal and in the code.
- 0:57Speaker 1: Right.
- 0:58Speaker 1: So we've broken it all down into five major themes that really dominate the conversation.
- 1:03Speaker 1: Let's start with the one that underpins everything else.
- 1:07Speaker 1: the industrial base itself.
- 1:08Speaker 0: The idea that the factory is the weapon.
- 1:11Speaker 0: The
- 1:11Speaker 1: factory is the weapon.
- 1:12Speaker 1: That's the phrase you see everywhere.
- 1:13Speaker 0: It's the shift in thinking where sheer mass production capacity is now seen as the decisive capability, maybe even more so than just having the single most advanced piece of tech.
- 1:24Speaker 1: It's right, Stevens drove that point home really effectively.
- 1:27Speaker 1: He argued that, you know, defense preparedness now relies almost entirely on that capacity for mass production.
- 1:34Speaker 0: And we're seeing startups pivot hard towards that.
- 1:36Speaker 0: Ali Java Harry pointed out that twenty twenty six seems to be the year for it.
- 1:40Speaker 1: Oh, for sure.
- 1:40Speaker 0: He named names Castilian, a pyrus and Dural, all committing serious capital to actually scale up their manufacturing.
- 1:47Speaker 1: Which is a huge deal.
- 1:48Speaker 1: You have this venture capital speed now crashing into old school industrial discipline.
- 1:52Speaker 0: A tough combination to get right.
- 1:54Speaker 1: Very tough.
- 1:55Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:55Speaker 1: But they're becoming these critical players in the supply chain.
- 1:58Speaker 1: You can see it really clearly in these strategic bottlenecks like.
- 2:03Speaker 1: Solid rocket motors
- 2:05Speaker 0: the SRM market.
- 2:06Speaker 0: Matthew Fulco laid that out really well.
- 2:07Speaker 0: It used to be this quiet little duopoly
- 2:09Speaker 1: right complacent, but now with this massive demand It's becoming this hyper competitive Strategic industry.
- 2:16Speaker 0: and that's where a company like Andrewle comes in exactly.
- 2:18Speaker 1: they saw the bottleneck and just moved.
- 2:20Speaker 1: they put seventy five million dollars of their own money into a new SRM facility in Mississippi.
- 2:27Speaker 1: and
- 2:27Speaker 0: what's the output they're targeting?
- 2:28Speaker 1: It's huge Six thousand tactical motors a year by the end of twenty twenty six.
- 2:33Speaker 0: Six thousand.
- 2:34Speaker 0: That kind of private investment speed just completely changes the game for the big traditional primes.
- 2:39Speaker 1: It does.
- 2:39Speaker 1: And it's not just a U.S.
- 2:40Speaker 1: thing either.
- 2:41Speaker 1: Over in the U.K.
- 2:42Speaker 1: James Lawson noted that they just opened their first resilience factory
- 2:46Speaker 0: in Plymouth.
- 2:46Speaker 0: Right.
- 2:46Speaker 0: Yep.
- 2:47Speaker 1: And its entire purpose is rapid iteration for autonomous systems.
- 2:51Speaker 1: So the physical footprint is changing globally to reward speed.
- 2:54Speaker 0: OK.
- 2:55Speaker 0: So the factories are getting faster.
- 2:56Speaker 0: That brings us to our next theme.
- 2:58Speaker 0: What are they actually building?
- 3:00Speaker 0: Drones and autonomy.
- 3:02Speaker 1: And here, the conversation has moved on.
- 3:05Speaker 1: The airframe itself.
- 3:06Speaker 1: I mean, it's almost a commodity now.
- 3:08Speaker 0: That's what Tom G, a senior UAV pilot, was saying, the real race is in the electronics, the stuff you don't see.
- 3:15Speaker 1: Right.
- 3:15Speaker 1: The resilient, scalable electronics.
- 3:18Speaker 1: The questions everyone's asking now are, what happens when your GPS is jammed?
- 3:22Speaker 1: when your data links are degraded or spooced.
- 3:24Speaker 0: How does the system handle messy partial data instead of needing a perfect
- 3:29Speaker 1: picture?
- 3:29Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 3:30Speaker 1: And that onboard intelligence is enabling completely new tactics.
- 3:34Speaker 1: Matt Bev detail AFSO's A to E strategy.
- 3:37Speaker 0: Where they use the MQ-Nine drone as a kind of mothership.
- 3:40Speaker 1: A mothership in a network node, yeah.
- 3:41Speaker 1: They can send a smaller, cheaper, LTE-ist drone into the high threat areas.
- 3:46Speaker 0: So you risk the a tradable asset, not the multi-million dollar platform.
- 3:50Speaker 1: It's just a smarter way to distribute risk and extend your reach.
- 3:53Speaker 1: It's about mass and intelligence.
- 3:54Speaker 0: Which, of course, means the counter drone race is heating up just as fast.
- 3:58Speaker 1: Oh, absolutely.
- 3:59Speaker 1: Bochan Stochkovsky basically called, twenty twenty five, the year of the interceptor drone.
- 4:04Speaker 1: And we're
- 4:05Speaker 0: seeing them emerge.
- 4:06Speaker 0: You have the European MBDA Skywarden system that Florence Dooley was talking about.
- 4:11Speaker 1: And that AI-powered Merobs Interceptor that Mark CL highlighted.
- 4:15Speaker 1: It did really well at a NATO live fire exercise in Poland.
- 4:18Speaker 0: It all comes down to a race for time.
- 4:21Speaker 1: It does.
- 4:21Speaker 1: Wow.
- 4:22Speaker 1: Which explains the money.
- 4:23Speaker 1: Evan Loomis mentioned that Seas Industries just closed a five hundred and ten million dollar series D round.
- 4:30Speaker 1: Wow.
- 4:30Speaker 1: And their whole focus is on advanced radars that give you more time.
- 4:34Speaker 1: They track targets minutes sooner and for much farther away than the legacy systems can.
- 4:38Speaker 0: And in a swarm attack a few minutes is everything.
- 4:40Speaker 0: It's
- 4:40Speaker 1: the difference between success and failure.
- 4:43Speaker 1: And this push for autonomy isn't just in the air either, it's going deep.
- 4:47Speaker 1: Right,
- 4:47Speaker 0: down into the subsurface.
- 4:49Speaker 0: Keith King reported on Australia's massive investment, what was it, one point seven billion?
- 4:53Speaker 1: Yeah, one point seven billion dollars to mass produce the ghost shark.
- 4:55Speaker 1: These
- 4:56Speaker 0: are the extra large autonomous underwater vehicles.
- 4:59Speaker 1: AUVs, yeah.
- 5:00Speaker 1: Developed with Endoral Australia.
- 5:02Speaker 1: And these things can operate beyond five thousand meters deep.
- 5:05Speaker 1: We're talking deep ocean ISR and strike capability.
- 5:09Speaker 0: Which is not just about military targets, it's about protecting all that critical subsea infrastructure like internet cables.
- 5:15Speaker 1: Exactly.
- 5:15Speaker 1: The defense mission is expanding into new economic territory.
- 5:19Speaker 0: Speaking of expansion, that's a perfect lead-in to our third theme.
- 5:23Speaker 0: The collapse of traditional domains.
- 5:25Speaker 0: Space, firepower, and networked integration.
- 5:28Speaker 1: It's all connected now.
- 5:29Speaker 1: Space isn't some separate domain anymore.
- 5:32Speaker 1: It's absolutely central to maritime, air, and ground operations.
- 5:36Speaker 0: Joseph Aschbacher pointed out that growing link between space and marine economies.
- 5:42Speaker 0: Yeah,
- 5:42Speaker 1: with ESA's Sentinel satellites enabling everything from border security to law enforcement at sea.
- 5:47Speaker 0: And having your own way to get there remains critical.
- 5:50Speaker 0: Tony Toker Nielsen framed the Ariane Six rocket as this big symbol of European cooperation for sovereign access to space.
- 5:56Speaker 1: And once you're up there, or anywhere really, you need firepower that actually works.
- 6:00Speaker 1: It sounds basic, but reliability is everything.
- 6:03Speaker 0: Brian Kubic announced a record setting day for PAC-III missile intercepts at White Sands.
- 6:08Speaker 0: That continuous testing and proving is non-negotiable.
- 6:11Speaker 1: But the real game changer, like we said at the top, is integration.
- 6:15Speaker 0: For sure.
- 6:16Speaker 0: Chandra Marshall and Ray Pacelli were discussing plans to integrate the European IRIST missile into the US Aegis system.
- 6:23Speaker 1: Which sounds technical, but that is a massive deal.
- 6:26Speaker 0: It's the first European missile ever to be integrated like that.
- 6:29Speaker 0: They pull
- 6:29Speaker 1: it off, yeah.
- 6:31Speaker 1: It would be a huge leap forward for Allied interoperability.
- 6:34Speaker 1: A policy win and a tech win all at once.
- 6:37Speaker 0: You see that same logic in procurement.
- 6:39Speaker 0: Glenn Copeland highlighted Germany picking Lockheed Martin Canada's CMS-III-III Combat Management System.
- 6:45Speaker 0: It's another move toward Allied fleets that can operate as one.
- 6:49Speaker 1: But again, none of this works.
- 6:50Speaker 1: The missiles, the ships, the sensors, without the network tying it all together.
- 6:54Speaker 0: The secure communication layer.
- 6:56Speaker 0: Right.
- 6:56Speaker 1: That's why you saw so much attention on things like the Airbus DCIS showcase at Steadfast Cobalt-II.
- 7:02Speaker 0: And that European five-g compad demonstration, that one involved Rheinmetall, SAB, and Thales showing off resilient tactical comms.
- 7:13Speaker 0: It's not just a concept anymore.
- 7:14Speaker 0: It's
- 7:14Speaker 1: a deployable reality, which brings us to a tricky subject.
- 7:19Speaker 1: We have the tech, we have the factory spinning up, but is the policy keeping pace?
- 7:23Speaker 1: Ah,
- 7:23Speaker 0: theme four.
- 7:25Speaker 0: policy, strategy, and the gaps.
- 7:28Speaker 0: And there's some real friction here.
- 7:29Speaker 0: Sure.
- 7:30Speaker 0: Andrew Park described the new U.S.
- 7:32Speaker 0: acquisition reform plans from Secretary Haggsyth as a complete restructuring.
- 7:36Speaker 1: Not just a tweak.
- 7:37Speaker 0: No, making speed and usable capability the absolute center of gravity for how they buy
- 7:42Speaker 1: things.
- 7:42Speaker 1: But that focus on speed isn't everywhere.
- 7:44Speaker 1: Thomas Lucas was blunt about the UK's defense posture being misaligned with current threats.
- 7:49Speaker 0: Specifically calling out the lack of a fully funded air and missile defense strategy.
- 7:53Speaker 1: A huge gap.
- 7:54Speaker 1: And then you get to examples that are, well,
- 7:56Speaker 0: almost absurd.
- 7:57Speaker 0: The tank bubble in Germany.
- 7:59Speaker 0: Jonas Singer laid this out.
- 8:00Speaker 0: The cost for a new leopard to a tank is nearly five times the historical price.
- 8:05Speaker 1: And at the same time, they have a massive manpower shortage.
- 8:08Speaker 0: Right.
- 8:08Speaker 0: They lack the four-person crews, not to mention the ten to fifteen support staff you need for every single tank.
- 8:14Speaker 1: So you're buying thousands of vehicles you can't even operate?
- 8:17Speaker 0: He called it the world's most expensive parking lot.
- 8:20Speaker 0: It's capacity without capability.
- 8:22Speaker 1: And you contrast that inertia with what's happening in Ukraine.
- 8:26Speaker 1: Denise Fiatokum reported on real capital flowing in now.
- 8:29Speaker 0: The two hundred and fifty million dollar rebuild Ukraine fund and over a hundred and forty million euros from the EU for dual use
- 8:37Speaker 1: tech.
- 8:37Speaker 1: They're actively trying to integrate Ukraine into Europe's resilience strategy.
- 8:42Speaker 0: Which is great.
- 8:43Speaker 0: But Maria Chirpec and Ilya Chikinyeva pointed out that despite all the talent there, the Ukrainian defense tech sector is still massively undercapitalized to really scale up.
- 8:52Speaker 1: Ingenuity can only get you so far without.
- 8:55Speaker 1: serious industrial investment.
- 8:56Speaker 0: Which brings us to our final theme, the startup ecosystem and a fascinating paradox around AI.
- 9:02Speaker 1: Yeah, these startups, the so-called war unicorns, a term from Pete Modigliani, they're really driving the pace.
- 9:08Speaker 1: You've got over a hundred and eighty billion in VC pumped into defense tech in just the last five years.
- 9:13Speaker 0: But as you said, they're hitting some major roadblocks, especially with AI.
- 9:17Speaker 0: Burek Otto was on a panel about AI certification, and he flagged a core legal paradox.
- 9:23Speaker 0: It's a tricky one.
- 9:24Speaker 0: Ferry, if a human pilot makes a mistake, the human is responsible.
- 9:29Speaker 0: Simple enough.
- 9:30Speaker 1: Right.
- 9:30Speaker 0: But an AI agent isn't a legal entity.
- 9:34Speaker 0: So if it makes a catastrophic error, who is liable?
- 9:37Speaker 0: The developer, the operator.
- 9:39Speaker 0: the person who supplied the data.
- 9:41Speaker 1: Nobody knows.
- 9:42Speaker 1: And that lack of clarity is a huge break on deployment.
- 9:45Speaker 1: And
- 9:45Speaker 0: there's a societal hurdle too.
- 9:46Speaker 0: that's even stranger.
- 9:47Speaker 0: Burick Atta shared this thought experiment.
- 9:49Speaker 1: The one about driving in Germany.
- 9:51Speaker 1: That's
- 9:51Speaker 0: the one.
- 9:51Speaker 0: He said, hypothetically, AI could cut car accident rates in half.
- 9:55Speaker 0: A huge net gain for safety.
- 9:57Speaker 0: But society would likely reject the few remaining deaths if they were caused by a machine.
- 10:03Speaker 0: We have this paradoxical tolerance for human error that we don't extend to AI.
- 10:07Speaker 1: It's a huge challenge.
- 10:08Speaker 1: And it's why so much of the strategic talk comes back to software.
- 10:12Speaker 1: Brita Jacob made the case that software-defined defense is essential for deterrence and growth.
- 10:17Speaker 1: It's about agility.
- 10:18Speaker 0: You see that agility with companies like ARX Robotics.
- 10:22Speaker 0: Stefan R. was showcasing how their software, the Mithra OS, lets them innovate in cycles measured in months.
- 10:28Speaker 1: Not years or decades, like the traditional prize.
- 10:31Speaker 0: Exactly.
- 10:31Speaker 0: And that speed gets you results.
- 10:33Speaker 0: Fast.
- 10:34Speaker 0: Oleksander Serban shared this incredible example from a defense tech hackathon.
- 10:39Speaker 1: What was that like?
- 10:40Speaker 0: They built a prototype AI system that analyzes geotagged photos and videos.
- 10:45Speaker 0: So, say, for a drone sighting near an airport, it cut the emergency response time from hours.
- 10:51Speaker 0: down to seconds.
- 10:52Speaker 0: How many
- 10:52Speaker 1: hours to seconds?
- 10:53Speaker 0: Just with smarter software.
- 10:54Speaker 0: It's a tangible, life-saving impact.
- 10:56Speaker 1: So if we pull all of this together, I mean, the one big takeaway from these two weeks is that we are watching the very definition of military capability change in real time.
- 11:06Speaker 0: It's not just about heavy metal anymore.
- 11:07Speaker 1: Not at all.
- 11:08Speaker 1: It's about speed, it's about software, and it's about the industrial base's ability to deliver at scale.
- 11:13Speaker 1: That's what's decisive now.
- 11:15Speaker 0: Which leaves us with a final, provocative thought for you to consider.
- 11:18Speaker 0: We're seeing governments buy incredibly expensive human intensive equipment like those German tanks that need huge vulnerable crews.
- 11:25Speaker 0: At the same time, frontline reports all stress that the human operator is the single most valuable and vulnerable target.
- 11:32Speaker 0: So given that societal paradox that Barakatata mentioned, our strange tolerance for human error, how quickly will procurement systems adapt?
- 11:40Speaker 0: How fast will they pivot to prioritizing force-multiplying autonomy over systems that demand the one asset we can least afford to lose?
- 11:48Speaker 0: If you enjoyed this deep dive, new episodes drop every two weeks.
- 11:51Speaker 0: Also check out our other editions on ICT and Tech Insights, HealthTech, Cloud, Digital Products and Services, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability in Green ICT.
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