Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Japanese GP 2026 | Betting Preview

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Japanese GP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: And we're back, we got Apex Insiders betting preview Japanese Grand Prix with your lovely renegade here, AKA Alan. And F1 camera, if you're listening on Spotify or Apple, he currently has his image as Alan. And if you're in the Discord, you would know. But it's actually pretty funny. ⁓ Darksideday: the merch on. @f1capper: He's got a nice little Apex Insiders cap too. It's pretty hilarious. Now I'm gonna be seeing him as Alan for the next, God knows, 45 minutes. Five years, yeah, exactly. Pretty funny, I was actually laughing pretty good about that. ⁓ Yeah, so we got our betting preview. This is the last betting preview we're gonna have for, God, a month, I think, at this point, since now we don't have Bahrain. Yeah. Darksideday: five years. I'm @f1capper: So we get a spring break, I guess. Let's call it the spring break. We get a month. But don't worry, we have IndyCar. ⁓ We'll still be dabbling with some NASCAR as well. I will not be betting Talladega. just, yeah, if you're a NASCAR guy, just don't even, just forget about it. But that's neither here nor there. We got Japanese Grand Prix, my friend. So let's kick it off with a little preview of the track, which... ⁓ Number one, I actually saw how we've got the new overtake zones and stuff like that with the Duracell batteries and stuff, but Japan is not gonna be any different than the DRS zones that we had. that's one less thing that we have to worry about. And it makes sense because there's not really like, there's only two places you could probably put that, maybe three. So nothing has really changed in terms of that. This type of track, it's gonna be be a tire shredder, gonna have the hardest compound, C1 through three. then, yeah, so tire stress is gonna be pretty significant. Probably gonna be a one stop, assuming obviously the obvious no safety cars or anything, but sounds like this is still gonna be another one stop race. I love this track, I love driving it. I love iRacing GT7 F1 of this track, so I'm excited about it. Darksideday: It's awful. How can you like it? @f1capper: I love it man, I love it. I think it's just over the years I've been using I've been driving that track forever forever. It just flows well I mean and that probably goes into our preview here so you're gonna see definitely less of the Hard-breaking zones like you saw in China, but you're gonna see more mid to high-speed cornering type of characteristics so Probably gonna suit the Ferrari's pretty well again. I mean Mercedes Seems like it's the most well balanced car. Doesn't matter where they're at. But track EVO is going to be pretty, pretty significant, I would assume. So, latest update, no rain now. There was all this talk about potentially some rain being on Saturday. I know it was too soon to call last weekend, this past weekend. And think the latest report from our boy Rodolfo, he says, ⁓ likely going to be a dry weekend now. Things have shifted around that it's probably going to be dry. So yeah, we got, I'm excited. The time is definitely more beneficial to me, not to our European friends, especially you. You're gonna have to get up. The race should be at midnight, so it's perfect. Obviously 11 o'clock, 10 o'clock would be better, but I'm not gonna complain for a midnight race at all. So I love that. Practice I think will be, Darksideday: What time is it for you? @f1capper: I would have to check 8 for 8 p.m. For me on FP1. I don't even know I'll have to see but I think so 8 9 something like that 10 Yeah, but let's let's talk man. I One thing that was brought up in the premium chat, which is by the way Our new premium chat is part of our paddock pass. It is $20 a month. You get a seven-day free trial It gives you all the latest news and updates up to the minute through our bots and again, we're gonna be posting just like this past race. We were attacking markets ⁓ right when things are happening. Even when there was like five minutes left in the race, I was able to get into the group plays after McLaren's were not ⁓ gonna start. like that's kind of benefits of getting the prim. Darksideday: And especially like this sort of cycle with the new regulations, cars are breaking down, pit-riding starts, it's all happening. I don't think I've ever seen so much chaos with cars not starting, ever. @f1capper: Yeah. ⁓ yeah. It's, I don't get it. I honestly do not get it with that McLaren if we want to just touch on that. Like it was such an odd situation too. Like they said the first time that's happened since what, 2004 in the US Grand Prix in Indy. I don't understand. Like first it was Norris, he had the issue and then the craziest thing it's like, well now we're rolling Piazzari back and they're having software issues. It's like. what is happening. They were doing okay. Yeah, like what was, what changed because he, he, Piazzery, he was able to go out, do a quick lap, you know, set up everything looked fine for him too. And then just all of a sudden last seconds, it's some electrical crawling issues. ⁓ Yeah, it's definitely, I will admit that's, that saved me for a lot of race, for the races so far. But that's what we're here for. We want to maximize on opportunities like that. That's why I'm glued to my screen for that hour before the race and making sure nothing is interrupting me so I can attack on that. that's another reason why we enjoy the premium chat too, because it's not just me, it's everyone within our crew that are looking for lines and whatnot. So yeah. ⁓ Darksideday: one clear example that we had last weekend, race weekend, Alex Halburn pit lane start for the sprint, easy head to head with signs, it was a bit of a sweat with the safety car but it was easy enough. @f1capper: Yeah. ⁓ yeah. Perfect. I had no doubt in my mind that I was not worried one bit. He was not one bit. He just didn't... Darksideday: Not worried. I was worried and then I saw I was on like nine and thought so. @f1capper: I mean, there was a moment where I was thinking, why wouldn't Sines get, you know, I think he was on the, think he stayed, yeah, he stayed out or something. I don't remember. And then like as the race cut went on, you could see it, like Albond just did not have the same pace in that car compared to Sines. And then obviously it worked out in our favor. So yeah, let's go into some odds. How about we, well, first off, do you have a bet? I don't even know if you have a bet. Darksideday: comments. Yeah. I don't even know I don't @f1capper: You don't? Well, this is perfect. We can both cook up some bets. So let me let me let me present here. Let me screen share. Give me one second. Darksideday: You're to do some magic and put up your screen. @f1capper: Yes. Darksideday: There we go. @f1capper: Can you see it? Can you see it? All right. Darksideday: Yes, we have Draft Kings. @f1capper: Let's start here. Let's see. What do we want to start with? Let's do practice. We've got some practice odds. think MGM pops them too. I was looking at this. I was confusing myself. Darksideday: got to zoom in I can't see @f1capper: You can't see? Darksideday: Hold on, hold on. Yeah, just a little bit. @f1capper: This isn't a s- making me do stuff. I'm the insert boomer GIF here. Darksideday: Ctrl plus. @f1capper: Well, no, I'm trying to do it through Riverside to see if I could do it, but I guess not. How about now? How about now? all right. Darksideday: There we go. Yeah, that's fine. @f1capper: One thing about this track though, before anything, just let me give you a quick little opinion of what I think beyond practice, just overall. My view is obviously without safety cars and all that, one stop definitely gonna happen. And we might see a little flip flop between Mercedes and Ferrari in the front to start. I think we're gonna see something similar, but then Ferrari is gonna start fading a little bit. Mercedes keeps on with their race pace, they end up taking over at some point, and Ferrari maybe just like two, three, three, four, they kind of start sliding back. So nothing has changed in that stance. I think that we're not gonna see as much like passing as we think we will. I don't think we will see it as much. Darksideday: No, I think so. @f1capper: especially as the race goes along. someone gets a better start. That's where the key is here. Obviously is the start. can't predict that. do know Ferrari PUs have much better starts. Obviously we've seen it even with Behrman and Haas. Ferrari, obvious. But then you have, we were talking about that with Max. This is two races in a row. He just cannot get off the line. Piastra can't even start a race at this point. So if they fall back and then they have to like again if max falls back and then has to fight through it's over It's game over for him. He's got to fight through a lot. It's just going to be almost impossible for him and something I mentioned there was Even the racing bulls say he had a hard time just trying to get past the racing bull their their sister team and then some things I read was that's because Racing bulls focused a lot in terms of trying to create balance while PU efficiency through the entirety of their design, while Racing Bulls was doing something a little bit different, which is why they can't maximize the same way as Racing Bulls right now. So the way I see it is, is we're not gonna see as much passing as we think. There will still be some passing, but if we get no safety cars, it's gonna start stretching out. The teams like Ahas that are better on their tires, even if Bearman starts back, he will somehow make his way through. and get back into position where he needs to be. So this is gonna be a truly like pace driven type of race because this is like, this is not a, this is a technical track, tire shredder, and there's still two areas of passing that will be significant for those teams. Darksideday: So with FP1 in mind, what do you like? @f1capper: I don't like anything. Darksideday: You know what, I think it's okay-ish. But maybe if it was a bit longer, I don't know if it's anywhere else. It's like one of the McLaren's top three. Or even if it's like one minus 175, one of them top six. They have been testing pretty well in free practice. @f1capper: So. Yeah. Yeah, I've flirted with that. Like even if you put both at top six. Darksideday: That's a Dolcetto special that is. @f1capper: That is, I did flirt with that last night. Another one is who do you pick out of the two? Do you pick Piastra or Norris? And then maybe you take a Lewis Hamilton. Darksideday: thing I don't like with Ferrari is that they're their special wing. It doesn't close properly. And if it doesn't close, turn one, Japan, they'll be in the wall. @f1capper: The wing. Yeah, and They'll do a Doohan eventually. You remember that last year where he tried to be He tried to get cute and say ⁓ this worked in the simulator and kept it open and then just Donkeyed into the wall. So Yeah, I that's that does scare me I I agree but like ⁓ if there was one I don't like the minus 165 I don't want to chalk that much to a top three like Lewis Hamilton I can get behind because Darksideday: Yeah, I do remember. You @f1capper: I honestly think Lewis Hamilton is definitely better on his tires right now. I can't fully tell though if Leclerc, it's just Leclerc is trying to push to beat Mercedes and doing more that's killing his tires. But it seems like in two races, even when in Australia, I think Lewis was behind Leclerc, but he was doing a lot better in terms of his dag on the second stint compared to Leclerc, a lot better. Darksideday: Be cool. @f1capper: If he was just in position, probably would have, he probably could have been up there. So. Darksideday: What do you think about even Kimi Top 3 or Russell win? @f1capper: Ugh. I would rather go Kimmy Wynn over Russell just because of the odds. think 650 is still playable in my eyes for that, potentially, considering it, just because. It's the same car, we know he can do it. And now we get three practices too, right? Maybe Russell decides to go out early and says, you know what, let's just kind of test something very quick. let's go out sooner, whatever the situation. But ⁓ that's where my lean would be. I don't care for plus 185. So when it comes to those odds, let's see, I mean, you could do the Mercedes plus 135 just if you really wanna do that. At first I thought this was 0.2. I kinda still do think Darksideday: Maybe. @f1capper: I wish this was not minus 105. That's what I wanted to check to see if any other books has margins up. I'd just bet 365, because I really love 0.2 if it's at that number, which we can see. Let's go to practice. Is practice even up on here? What's going on? Oh my God. Oh my God. What are we doing? Darksideday: No, it's not. He's... He's taken down. We had one race. And he's like, nah, nah, nah, nah. ⁓ @f1capper: I mean, it's about the same. I don't know. When you looked at the margins for the past, since 2022, the margin has not been lower than 0.15. But every year it's been over 0.2, except for, I think last year where it was at like 0.16. In FP1, yeah, for FP1. Darksideday: for everyone. @f1capper: So if you can find a point to like even money, take it, just go. Don't even think, just take it. I think that the same thing happens. The risk is yes, maybe Kimi has this just crazy lap and gets within the margin or Russell, but I think that, I think that they, I think we'll see it over point two again. So I'm considering, I guess it's better on MGM. So I'm gonna wait, be patient. I am definitely eyeing the. So ⁓ let's see what the top three is like here. Yeah, mean Bradford did mention Charles LeClair minus 118 on top three. I'm starting to think that that might be in play here. Actually, let's see what. see Mercedes plus 100 yeah so I kind of do think that is that might be in play I think so Hamilton even money not bad I don't think it's that bad he's been doing better man he's been doing better Darksideday: He been for sure. @f1capper: I don't know about anything if I wouldn't take Yeah, I'm looking like anything outside. I just don't see it Darksideday: about top sixes. I think it's the outside teams really haven't been doing too much this year in free practice. @f1capper: now. Yeah, and then if you wanna stick it out with Barrowman, we're talking two to one? Come on, I don't think that's worth my time for ⁓ top six. Let's see top 10. See what's in the top 10. Man, Barrowman at minus 135 is screaming my name. What do you think about that in the top 10? No, no, no? Darksideday: No, no, you just... You just seen BAM and you're like, ⁓ yes BAM and no... @f1capper: Now this is the one if he gets in top 10 i'm coming back to you, man Darksideday: I will for top 10. @f1capper: Who, Albon? Darksideday: I thought you were about top 6, but top 10. Go for it. @f1capper: Top 10, yeah, top 10. I don't think that the philosophy that Haas usually goes by where they normally take it slow in FP1 and then they ramp up, I think it's different now this year. They have a fricking fast car. They're the fourth best team right now. Can you believe that? They are, I think they're ahead of Red Bull at this point, I wanna say. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: Well, actually after McLaren, who cares? Anyways, they're clearly right now, they're the top team. They found something with that Ferrari PU. It's like Ferrari Junior, basically with them. They find a way off the starts. They have the efficiency through the cornering and breaking through the cornering. And then on top of that, they have good tire weight. Darksideday: They're up there. @f1capper: They are just one of the, out of the midfield teams from between Alpine, Racing Bulls and Haas, it's clear that they know how to have their setup right for long runs. So I don't know that like, we've talked about that many times last year, ⁓ FP1, you know, P18, P17. I think that's over for Bearman at least. I think that that might be a play right here and I might do it. But I kind of want to see some head-to-head to see if I can get a better, head to head option over which we can look at. Non teammates, so you have Carlos signed, ⁓ my gosh. They're teasing us with a plus 135 over Cola. Darksideday: See they made a mistake there, was about to go Alonzo over Bottes but Alonzo isn't even driving. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, we've not even happening. Let's put him down. Let's see, Esteban Ocon, Hulkenberg. I don't know. I don't know what to think of that one. Arvin Linman? Here you go. Yeah, see, he's minus 165. You can just take his top 10, I guess. Darksideday: That gasoline number was a bit better against Glimmbland. @f1capper: I think the top 10 is a good smack, man. Darksideday: Oh, I don't know, that Norris looks quite good against Rastaflan. @f1capper: Yeah, I do kinda like that too. God, he's 270, see, this doesn't make sense. Like Hajar is not that far off from max right now. Why would the Piazzari be minus 275? But Norris is, I know it's max, but I don't know. I think this one is a winner and the top 10. I don't want any of this smoke. I don't want any of that smoke. No, I think that's, I would approve Norris over Verstappen minus 118. or obviously if you can get it longer. Love to see if there's something longer. Yeah. Darksideday: they're probably testing the car, Red Bull, they clearly haven't got it in a good window. McLaren are probably the best team on the grid for slow corners at the moment, they just have no straight line speed. @f1capper: and then topped. Yeah. Okay, so three things I like for FP1. What you said, Norris over for Sapin. I don't like paying the Jews for the top 10 like this, but I will do it for Barreman. In Barreman we trust and the margin. But I would like to see what other margin options come out. So I'm gonna still be patient. because I think we'll still see Norris over Max maybe on DK or wherever. Yeah. Although. think you can get winner without. You can get barren at three to one technically, and that's kind of. Darksideday: Who's placing up Liam Lawson plus 350, winner without the main teams? I like how they just go, yeah, and Aston Martin. @f1capper: It's crazy. Yeah, it's just, yeah, why are we still doing Aston Martin? It's so dumb. ⁓ I don't know if Audi's gonna do well here. I don't think so. These odds are definitely tempting. Pierre Gasly at 650 is a pretty good look. I just don't see that, like Gasly was good here just overall last year, even in the Alpine, but that was right before they really just should hit the fan for them. But I do kind of like him at 650 here. just because of those odds. So maybe you could, if you don't like the top 10, take the Behrman 3-1 or the Gasly 650. Those are not bad, not bad. Okay, what's next? What are we going to now? Actually, let me see, what's that? Darksideday: You know what? I don't know publicly saying this, but I was looking at my free practice. I very rarely tip a free practice. I was like, I haven't had a winning free practice since 2024. @f1capper: Are you serious? It's been that long? Which race? Wow. Wow. Darksideday: It's only been four bits, but... @f1capper: So what are you betting? What are you betting? Darksideday: I'm sure I've had plenty on here though. Definitely the Norris one this week, so they'll probably lose, but the Norris one over Verstappen are like that. @f1capper: How many laps is this race? This might be a good bet right here on the Caesars. Most laps led by any driver right now on Caesars is over under 38 and a half. Darksideday: It's 53 laps. @f1capper: ⁓ want to pay one minus 150. Darksideday: No, I don't think so. I think... Maybe I'm the... @f1capper: I so. guess maybe if they keep going back and forth in the big... Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Darksideday: It depends on the rays to be honest. Maybe just leave that. That overlaps, right? @f1capper: Let's see, qualifying. Wow. Yeah, I'm not seeing, I'm not for qualifying. I think qualifying, I'm not gonna be cute with that unless I Darksideday: I Kimi's fluke win has just taken all the value we would have had on Kimi in the future. Like we got it for China and he just messed up for the sprint and all that. And now he got his win. @f1capper: Actually, think it's, see on the flip side, I look at it as, I think we might have a gift with Russell at this point. Because he had that, you know, remember that crazy, this car just stopped working and it was actually pretty impressive that Mercedes was able to get the car working back out and he basically had one lap. He had one lap to just try to kill it in. think he just missed out by two tenths or something. The fact that he was able to still get to two tenths out of all that activity that happened in the last seven minutes is still pretty impressive considering the situation. And if we still think Mercedes is going to dominate, at least in, you put them one to one, which is, still seems to be the case, we might actually have a gift here with Russell. He was probably gonna put it on pole. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: I think he was gonna put on, so I still am considering Russell for it. I just wanna see what other odds have been popping out, so. Let's go to Bet Rivers, which I don't know if that's available for you. Yeah, we got some stuff here. Let's see, yeah, he's minus 155. matchups. Would you take ⁓ Norris over Max in qualifying? Darksideday: I would, if it's there. That's how you take your mates stuff. @f1capper: What about, Darksideday: I so. @f1capper: Would you think I'm crazy if I take Lewis Hamilton over LeClaire? Darksideday: I don't think so. @f1capper: Okay, it's a consideration. Darksideday: I mean he beat him in China although he's like Ayrton Senna in China but even still @f1capper: where you see. Minus 180? Gross. Gross. Darksideday: This reminds me, like we've gone back to like just Hamilton dominating days, Max dominating days with these odds now. @f1capper: Yeah, mean like, Hamilton's been good, man. He's been looking good. He hasn't been complaining about the car like he used to. He seems to, I mean, just as going back through testing too, it wasn't even like the past two races or practices or anything. He's looked like he's been comfortable with what's going on and. I think that his experience also with so many different types of cars, he has an understanding of how to make sure, one, he can extract as much as he can from quality pace to how do I make sure I'm also maximizing my race pace with tire wear. And it's showing in his race craft. He's putting pressure on LeClaire in ways where it's making LeClaire do some crazy things. ⁓ which has me, if I can see, if I can find... I don't think, I can't believe I had a top four bet. Top four, Lewis Hamilton was at minus 105 or even money for me the last race. I, what's that? Darksideday: and did you take it? Did you take it? @f1capper: Oh yeah, I took it. And I keep looking back and I'm like, why didn't I just do more? Do more on that. So I'm checking my back alley right now to see, yeah, they have his top four at minus 600 now. 600. To me that like taking the podium bet is not bad at that at those odds right now. I don't think they have. Darksideday: because we're at a point where there's an established order-ish, that the books think, is that it's just Mercedes, Ferrari and Clarence, that's it, and they're all quite separate. @f1capper: Well, that's what it is right now. Mercedes and Ferrari, they're on another level to the next team. Will McLaren and Red Bull find it? I think McLaren will eventually. Just a matter of, know, get some of those upgrades, keep optimizing. They'll eventually get there. It's just a matter of when, but right now I don't see it. Red Bull is gonna be, they're gonna have an up and down year. And we kind of talked about that last year too, going into the season like this, they're going in with a new power unit, they're building it in house. That's never easy to do your first year. Like you're going to have ups and downs and it's obviously shown. And it's shown also with racing bulls because they've also experienced power unit issues and stuff like that with the software and all of that crap. Darksideday: and Audi, although they seem to be a bit more together. But they've had DNS. @f1capper: They've had their problems. Yeah, they're building their own engine in-house and they're... I think they got some fortunate situation for a Hulk to be where he was in Australia, but I think now we're kind of, you know, peeling the curtains back and we're seeing some of the flaws and obviously reliability. But yes, that's a... The teams that are doing well... at the top two teams, there's a reason why they're the top two teams. Engines are built in-house, they know every working of it. They've been testing for a long, long time on it. So they know that's why you're not gonna see that type of reliability like you're seeing with the other teams. ⁓ Except for when Russell had his little moment. Every team will experience something by all means, but it's been pretty brutal for Racing Bulls and Red Bull. put that forward. All right, let's keep going. So I think that if I can find the top three even longer than minus 140, I think I might dabble with it. We'll see. Darksideday: What was Ray's thoughts on Lewis Hamilton? @f1capper: race odds for which Darksideday: I I'd prefer to take that. I'd prefer to take the minus 120 for Race than the minus 140 top 3 for Colophon. @f1capper: This one. I won't do minus, yeah, I won't do minus 140. If I could find it, if I could find it even money, I would maybe dabble it. Darksideday: Only because we know Ferrari off the starts. And that could be it. That could be job done. @f1capper: Yeah, they're really good. Yeah, do they have leaders after all? Ooh, safety car, no, it's a little too much. I think there will be a safety car though. I think so. I think this is more of a narrow track. There's nothing forgiving in this more high speed compared to China. So China, there's a lot of runoff, there's slower speed, you can spin and you can still find it. There's still obviously sections where they can get damaged, but it's so. so much room, but Japan is, Suzuka is much different. It's going to be more narrow. And then you barely clip the grass, you're going to be in the gravel into the, into the wall. Like I think there is going to be a safety car and it might shake up things for sure. That's just my hunch. Take it how you want. How about your favorite market last classified driver? Darksideday: Yeah, if you're off, you're off. Minions, we completed it the other week, so we're not ever, ever going back to it. @f1capper: Finally Darksideday: But, I mean, it's even more dead than was the week before. Plus 150, both. I don't think so. @f1capper: I honestly hate to say this, but I do not mind double top six from McLaren. I just do not see them getting another double DNF. I think they, if we think that Red Bull. Darksideday: Next you're going to tell me you don't mind over 17 and a half classified finishes. @f1capper: No, I'm not messing with that. I'm not messing with that. There is a point in time I'm gonna come back to it. just don't think it's... Do they even have anything on MGM for the race? Let's see if they have classified yet. I so. Darksideday: I'm sure 365 does, me have a look. @f1capper: Yeah, they do. Total classified drivers. Minus 150 so Aston Martin so Darksideday: Only because we know, right? Aston Martins are out, for sure. @f1capper: Listen, the over 17 and a half, it sounds stupid to say this, but it would have hit if we didn't have like last week or last race two McLarens not even starting, right? And then the race before that, what was it? Bordoletto or Hulk? Someone? It was Bordoletto. They're not even starting the race. Darksideday: Yeah, but they've all just broken down in the race. @f1capper: So there's gonna be a point in time where that's gonna stop. They've had enough learnings and there's gonna be a time where we're gonna have to take this. But I mean, the over 16 and a half, I took that, the first race, it was at minus like 140, I think it was. I mean, we were close. It was just that one DNF. that one that just didn't start and we would have had that over 16 and a half. And now look, it's still at minus 250. So obviously, at least this book agrees with us that there should definitely be 17 cars finishing. Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: ⁓ Darksideday: and favourite market at the moment which is on 365, First Constructor Retirement @f1capper: All right, let's see. Darksideday: and I feel like just BAM. @f1capper: Howdy. Darksideday: Anything McLaren upwards? I don't know which ones, maybe Audi Alpine Racing balls @f1capper: Yeah, do these three Williams. Darksideday: Or maybe add, yeah, I don't know if you can do four, but three definitely. @f1capper: Definitely Audi, and I think you. Darksideday: because that's priced in like after Martin just do one lap and they're like yeah that's it, let's retire guys. There's going to be a first lap incident eventually. @f1capper: So you can only do four. Darksideday: I know you can do it, let me just check. You do more, but I'm saying like, what would be the total odds? So let's say we chose Audi. We Alpine and we chose Racin' Bull. That's like plus 450. Probably add one more in, that's two to one. I think it's worth it. @f1capper: Yeah I might try it. I might not do four. I might just throw on two, but I did want to see one thing really quick. Top finishes. Minus 600 here. Darksideday: But you can't combine them. @f1capper: It's about the same price. ⁓ go back to this. Yeah, might do Audi. Part of me kind of thinks maybe Williams Darksideday: No. @f1capper: Plus they have two donkeys, you know? Darksideday: True, it's true. @f1capper: Maybe. I can't believe McLaren is over here with the Cadillacs and Aston Martins. It's crazy. All right, well let's see, what else? What else? What else are we missing? We've got to be overlooking something. Darksideday: Winner to win outright or podium. I think you can take the Ferrari's to win outright, both of them, or just one of them. They're way too big for a track where track position is very key. @f1capper: Key, yeah. Yeah. Darksideday: especially you can do on the Europe, if you're a European, you can do each way on one of them. I don't think the straight's really, I mean I'm sure it is long enough for the Mercedes but the Ferrari is good in the corners, it'll probably get a good exit. That's the only point really you should need to defend if it gets in front turn one. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I wish it was like 12 to Darksideday: think they're slightly bigger. Then near enough, that's near enough for top price on 365 plus $1100 each. @f1capper: 550 see what it is. Yeah, there are actually maybe 10 to 1, 11 to 1 isn't too here. Race winners. Yeah, eight to one, seven to one. Wow, they have Lewis Hamilton over LeClaire. MGM. Look at you. Darksideday: You got a new job. @f1capper: I do. Yeah, I don't mind that at all. just, the one thing that keeps going in my mind though, they both have to be off the line and they both have to be able to hold off the Mercedes. Cause I think there's still gonna be a point in time that Russell, Kimmy, both are just gonna be that much better with their tire advantage that they might be gaining two tenths, know, undercut. something like that happens. Darksideday: Maybe. @f1capper: or a safety car might ruin it for them, you know. But I think that 10 to one, now that seeing the odds, actually isn't that bad, if you wanna take your chance on that. Darksideday: Yeah, I think maybe 10 to 1 the pair. Take your chances. Small sprinkle. @f1capper: Yeah. I don't mind that at all. But I still think it's gonna be, I still don't mind Russell. Let's see what his qualifying is here. Minus 150. I actually still don't mind Russell to win qualifying. But I kinda don't know if I wanna do that now. So it's something I'll probably keep discussing. Darksideday: I was coming here last year. @f1capper: I don't think he was all that bad. See? Go to 2025. Darksideday: ⁓ no, he was just blind. He was two tenths off. @f1capper: Who was? Darksideday: George Russell qualifying Kimi and then finished the second behind him in the race. ⁓ yeah, I think Kimi was like battling Russell at the end, if I remember correctly, last race in Japan. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Darksideday: So he's alright here. He's not a donkey, Jack. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. So then what we said earlier was Kimi to win practice one 650. May not be a bad idea. I mean, he's used to this track. I think if you're gonna take it, take on some odds, maybe that's the one you wanna take on. Plus 650. I might do it. We'll see. I mean, it's not like my free practice has just been up and down, up and down, especially at the... Darksideday: Why not? @f1capper: China I think I got swept But in Australia it was I Think it was down a few, you know, maybe a unit up to down one Didn't really make anything Darksideday: ⁓ yeah, you hear that nice ghazley... group? @f1capper: Last week, oh my God, I couldn't believe that max because yeah, as soon as the news hit, they're pulling a Piazzari back into that. was like, we gotta get on that group. Darksideday: I can't believe I was asleep. I woke up, I think it was, it wasn't even that early. It was like 7am, I woke up at 6.50am, I was like, I'm awake. And then I'm like, I'm awake, I'm awake. And I just fell back asleep. @f1capper: ⁓ my gosh. Unbelievable. It's funny, ⁓ Battle Online kept it open too and they didn't have good odds on Gastly so I was like, well, let me check my back alley. He's been putting ⁓ groups in there and it was 18 to one. was like, yes, yes I will. And Max was about the same, like 350. Darksideday: I mean there's nothing like an F1 grid thing that no one's reacted to. I don't think it's in any other sport really. @f1capper: love that. Love that. Yeah, this is this is what we do, man. This what we do. We gotta, you gotta attack while the, while you got that little window. Darksideday: I'm glad you told me it was after I was thinking you took it before because I was looking at that before I was like who is taking Gasly at 18 to 1? @f1capper: No, this was like, I had it up because Norris and, well, it was first Norris' issue. So I was telling everyone, I think even just in the regular chat, like, hey, go look at the groups. You have a Piastri-Norris one, removing Norris helps. You could take Piastri. And I actually took Piastri, but they voided that for me. So I was like, thank God. but I took Piastri and then immediately like a minute later or something, they're like, they're pulling, they set it on the broadcast, the pre-ratio, they're pulling the Piastri back into the garage and I was like, okay, I gotta go back and now I gotta take Max and Gasly, just gotta do it. And hey, you know what? That worked out in my favor, got that 18 to one. That was a beautiful, beautiful 18 unit right there. ⁓ So I'm happy. But yeah, I don't have anything else. I think at this point, I feel like, you know, we've got to just. Darksideday: See you other week. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, yeah, just like again session by session. Let's see. ⁓ let's do a grid rival. Let's do grid rival really quick. ⁓ So they did post some qualifying and. While I don't mind some of the qualifying, the one that really struck out at me was the race. And they have Cola Pinto at 12 and a half. I know Cola looked good the last race and we were talking about Alpine and all that stuff. Under, I'm taking worse on that. And... Darksideday: Yeah, definitely under. @f1capper: Bearman at seven and a half is Is pretty stout. I don't know if I would want to chalk to better there. He's starting to hit a ceiling but If you do believe he is going to be at seven and a half You might as well just take his top six. You have better odds you get better payout that way. Let's see what his top six is Max is at five and a half Darksideday: What's Max? That's definitely worth saying. @f1capper: Thinking that's the play I'm gonna do is worse with him and worse with with ghastly at 12 and a half and just take that But yeah, like looking at bareman top, know, you can get him at 350. That's just take him alone And you might be able to strike on that If you wanted to but that basically what I'm saying is is you could do that Implying that if he gets better than seven and half, then that's gonna be a max or someone that's gonna be worse, Max, Lando, or Piastry is gonna be worse. One of those three is gonna be worse. If you don't wanna do that, which I agree, you don't have to, you don't have to chalk to that, then you take Max worse, and maybe I'm just gonna, let's do that. Let's make it an official pod play, Max worse with Colapinto worse 12 1 1 And it's in. That's the official Japanese Grand Prix betting preview grid rival. Insert whatever commentary here. Boom. Darksideday: And just to finish off, how is your good rival league position doing on the fantasy stuff? @f1capper: For fantasy, think I'm still hanging around. I'm in 17th out of, I don't know, how many do we have? 203 people. Darksideday: 17th, how are you flicking that? I've got a nice income, I'm on the 20th with 117 million so I'm not doing too bad. @f1capper: ⁓ you got a nice healthy one. I'm at 109. Darksideday: I got Colopinto, Nimblad, Alpine, they've been feeding me all the increase. @f1capper: My problem was Bordoletto this last race. He dinged me on that one. So I didn't know how, because every year I'm thinking how long, we have a better gauge of the calendar, what's coming up next, where are these cars weakness that we don't know this year. So I just went with it and said, I'm gonna just do five contract for all these drivers and just see what happens. Let's start the season this way. But I do have Lin-Blad. I put Ferrari in there just thinking like maybe I can outsmart myself here, but that was kind of dumb. ⁓ I have a jar, so that kind of messed me up too, right? Like I have Bearman. Bearman's been crushing it for me. So, but right now I'm sitting at 17th, long season. ⁓ Probably, I just didn't know what to do with my contracts and I said, let's just take the risk and go five. Probably not the best idea, I wanted to take drivers that I kind of believed in at a good price point and that's what I pretty much priced here. So. ⁓ Yeah, I kinda regret just putting Ferrari. I should've just, why not put Mercedes, right? Like, just put them in there. ⁓ But yeah, dude. Darksideday: Does GridRider have a type of thing over there where it's like fantasy, page 4 fantasy, where you can enter competitions? @f1capper: For leagues? Or DFS you mean? They used to, I think they removed it. I don't know if they were getting enough people like doing pools and stuff like that. Draft Kings really dominates in that area with DFS, which our guys are still playing it. I'm just not a big DFS guy. I've just, yeah, I'm just not typically not feeling it. ⁓ Darksideday: Yeah. Yeah, DFS. @f1capper: Yeah, so that's it. That's all I got. So get into Discord. We do have a free chat still. We're always still chatting in there, but if you subscribe to our Patek Pass, you'll get a little bit more. Seven, come in, come in. The doors, you'll get the VIP and then we're still building more too. We'll get more, we get more data and we'll hopefully be... ⁓ Darksideday: I'll give you a 7 day free trial, come on now. No excuse, no excuse. @f1capper: building out a lot more, but you can get in. We do have IndyCar this weekend as well. We got the Barber GP this weekend. So we already got some plays pop in. I have some grid arrivals on that as well. We'll probably be doing the podcast, the betting preview for Indy tomorrow or Thursday, just depending on some availability, hoping we can get it out tomorrow so everyone can be prepared, but better track. This is not a street circuit. This is gonna be more of a... like I like to say, a European style type of track, but it's another hard to pass track too. So I think it's gonna be much better for all of us in Indy, even though Nathan Rogers, he's been killing it. He's got 16 units going to start the year, which is pretty incredible right now. So it's some good stuff we got going on with IndyCar. So get in, that's free. By the way, that's free. So, all right man, we'll see you in the Discord and let's hope we cash. Darksideday: See you later.