Latest / Financial Survival Network / Economic Indicators, Market Trends, and Job Report Skepticism in the US Economy - David Stryzewski #6020

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Economic Indicators, Market Trends, and Job Report Skepticism in the US Economy - David Stryzewski #6020 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  You know, this is an interesting jobs report, and we're getting a lot
• 0:04
  of interesting data right now that's coming out, and I would call it mixed
• 0:08
  at best. You know, one of the things that we want to be
• 0:12
  paying attention to here is the fact that yes, unemployment was was better than
• 0:18
  well, it came up a little bit, but that is ultimately twenty seven
• 0:22
  months, just as he said, under four percent. But here's reality.
• 0:25
  You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information.
• 0:30
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• 0:36
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• 0:42
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• 0:52
  Welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network on your host
• 0:57
  Carrie. Let's say, we're concluding the first week of March. We just
• 1:00
  got a state of the Disunion address, and what does it mean for the
• 1:06
  market. What does it mean to your portfolio and your future retirement prospects,
• 1:11
  assuming you're going to retire at some point. Well, our good friend David
• 1:17
  Strazuski is with us now to opine and give us his take on it.
• 1:23
  David, it's great to have you back. So tell us we've had you
• 1:27
  know how many months, twenty seven months of unemployment below four percent and the
• 1:34
  market should be booming, right hey, Well, great to be with you
• 1:40
  here, Carrie. As always, you know, this is this is an
• 1:42
  interesting jobs report and we're getting a lot of interesting data right now that's coming
• 1:48
  out, and I would call it mixed at best. You know. One
• 1:52
  of the things that we want to be paying attention to here is the fact
• 1:56
  that yes, unemployment was was better than well, it came up a little
• 2:01
  bit, but that is ultimately twenty seven months, just as he said,
• 2:05
  under four percent. But here's reality. The headline number that we get on
• 2:08
  a report like this has been revised down all of the last twelve months,
• 2:14
  and then if we look at the prior ones to that, there was only
• 2:15
  like one or two that did not get revised down. So the only thing
• 2:20
  that's been consistent with the numbers from this administration is that they get revised down.
• 2:23
  And in this case, the amazing numbers that we just had in January,
• 2:27
  Carrie, were that led to this huge bull market and everyone's talking about
• 2:31
  soft Lane and in price to perfection that just got revised down one third of
• 2:37
  the jobs that it said was supposed to get. So I just don't understand
• 2:39
  how we're in a timeframe where AI is so intelligent, We've got all the
• 2:45
  best technology. The bean counters at the FED has more economists than any other
• 2:50
  organization, and they can't figure this out with any level of accuracy. Yeah,
• 2:53
  funny how that works. But they're so good they've been guiding the economy
• 2:59
  and keeping, you know, keeping it going all this time. I think
• 3:04
  the economy going has more to do with the rest of the world being in
• 3:07
  more horrible shape than the US and a flood of flight capital, especially from
• 3:13
  China, coming into the US. That's my feeling. Yeah, I do.
• 3:16
  I can agree with that sense of it. I think that you know,
• 3:20
  if we look at how the numbers for unemployment would be measured, and
• 3:25
  you just think about a fraction. You know, on the numerator you've got
• 3:30
  all the possible people that could be working, and then on denominator it's all
• 3:32
  the jobs that are open. And what happened to the numerator here, and
• 3:37
  that is the amount of people in the workforce, is that we have the
• 3:39
  great resignation occur in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, and so many
• 3:45
  boomers retired much quicker than they had anticipated, just due to COVID and various
• 3:51
  things that were taking place. And Shar's where this gets a little bit interesting,
• 3:57
  and that is, you know, oh my goodness, our unemployed and
• 4:00
  is so low. Well, you know, whether we're talking about the amount
• 4:03
  of people that are working or the amount of jobs that are open. The
• 4:06
  point is is we have a very different economy pre twenty twenty, post twenty
• 4:10
  twenty. So let's have twenty twenty vision, and let's look backward in time,
• 4:14
  and let's recognize that there's fewer people working right now. And I'll just
• 4:17
  say this as well, from the handful of families that I've just touched base
• 4:23
  with here in the last week, knowing that I was going to have a
• 4:25
  conversation with you about unemployment, I said, hey, how's this going.
• 4:29
  And I have literally talked to three particular gentlemen that we're looking for jobs.
• 4:33
  These are highly qualified people. They say, it is nearly impossible today to
• 4:38
  be a white male and to find a job in corporate America. And so
• 4:42
  I think that unemployment being so low. Well, guess what, the jobs
• 4:45
  that are open right now may or may not be the jobs that people are
• 4:47
  looking for, or they're not really looking for the people out there that are
• 4:50
  truly looking and seeking for employment. Yeah, well, you know what they
• 4:55
  say about statistics, right, they lie? Yeah? So so what are
• 5:03
  we to make of it? Then? How do we? How do we
• 5:06
  prepare for this uncertain future? That's really how do you what are you supposed
• 5:12
  to do? Well? I think you have to answer that question by by
• 5:15
  looking at the FED, you know, because all eyes are on the Federal
• 5:17
  Reserve and what are they going to do? Are they going to be cutting
• 5:19
  rates? And if you'll recall, you know, last July, we were
• 5:23
  certain that rates were going to be dropped and that's why we rallied so significant
• 5:27
  through Q one, and of course that didn't happen. We've not even had
• 5:30
  one rate cut yet. So uh so, here here, here, we're
• 5:32
  looking at it, you know, where we go? What do we do?
• 5:36
  In my opinion, we need to understand what the data is saying.
• 5:41
  And they're they're they're anticipating double digit GDP growth this year, meaning that the
• 5:46
  United States is going to grow double digits for sure, and that's over the
• 5:47
  next two years, even double digit returns. Maybe we get something in the
• 5:51
  mid singles. And by the way, uh, you know that's not inflation
• 5:56
  adjusted, so given inflation, that would just maybe say that we're remain about
• 6:00
  buoyant. But I don't know how you get to stock cuts right now or
• 6:03
  big rate cuts when stocks are at all time highs, when golds at all
• 6:08
  time highs, when gait points at all time highs. You know that's the
• 6:11
  Dow, Jones, the S and P, and the Nasdaq, the knee
• 6:13
  k from Japan thirty four years it's been till it's been at all time high
• 6:17
  it's there right now. So the whole world is at all time highs.
• 6:20
  How do you cut? It's not bad enough yet, so I how do
• 6:25
  you play this thing? I think you've got to understand the fact that there's
• 6:29
  a lot that can go wrong from here, and so depending upon your age
• 6:31
  and the timing of when you're retiring, you need these dollars, et cetera.
• 6:36
  You know, there's different plans and strategies that you're going to want to
• 6:40
  deploy. I think it is incredibly important though, do not forget that we
• 6:43
  need anchors in these markets, because if things go backwards and we actually get
• 6:47
  the lag effect, which you know we've been waiting for from the fat Hey
• 6:50
  raise rates so fast, When is this lag effect officially kick in and things
• 6:56
  really start to get bad. I'm personally believing that we are going to see
• 6:59
  that before the fourth of July for sure. In the data. I think
• 7:01
  it's coming out right now. I think the second part of the year is
• 7:04
  going to be much bloodier than the first part, and there's going to be
• 7:08
  a lot more losers than winners, but there will certainly be some opportunities.
• 7:12
  All right, Well, there's always winners and losers in everything, right,
• 7:15
  Yes, everything the government does. Hey, so gold prices record highs.
• 7:21
  They're up like another twenty thirty dollars today. I have to go consult my
• 7:28
  kit go website. Yeah, it's up to twenty one to ninety. It's
• 7:31
  up thirty bucks today on the spot work. So what is gold trying to
• 7:38
  tell us here? Well? Interesting facts? Okay, So gold is priced
• 7:42
  in US dollars. So what this tells me is that the US dollar is
• 7:46
  actually getting weaker, so much so that gold is now priced even though you're
• 7:50
  trying to depress the price. It's at all time highs right now. How
• 7:54
  can you say that we're in a disinflation environment when gold's at all time hiyes,
• 8:00
  the oxymoron statements, it doesn't work like that. So we have to
• 8:03
  look through the data and the numbers here. But I'm looking at it,
• 8:05
  Carrie. Eighty nine point one or sorry, eighty nine point three silver to
• 8:13
  gold. Now, that gold to silver ratio tells me that well. In
• 8:18
  my personal opinion, silver is the most underrated commodity in the world right now,
• 8:24
  and I think gold leads silver follows. Gold's going to be a great
• 8:28
  play here for the rest of the year. But the miners that have been
• 8:31
  beat up for probably almost the last two decades, if I can be honest,
• 8:35
  they are undervalued right now. I think that they're positioned extremely well for
• 8:39
  the future. We have to have metals if we are going to be able
• 8:43
  to electrify the world, so copper is an example. We're going to need
• 8:46
  uranium if we're going to get baseload for electricity. We need gold and silver.
• 8:50
  These are real assets that the central banks they're buying right now at thousands
• 8:56
  of tons annually, and so if we just follow the the money. I
• 9:01
  think that it starts to show us where value is probably truly found, and
• 9:05
  it's likely not in the US dollar treasuries. Yeah, I don't know.
• 9:09
  I don't think it's found in any currency anywhere on the planet, do you
• 9:13
  no? I? And this is part of the reason why Bitcoin's up so
• 9:16
  high, right, and that is not good for the US dollar. Bitcoins
• 9:18
  an alternative payment, and the concept to that is a really, really,
• 9:24
  really important thing for people to understand because everything is changing right now. The
• 9:28
  federerserve is behind. They've been out of it, They've missed it every step
• 9:33
  along the way. I'm obviously very critical of them, just given even what
• 9:37
  we're celebrating here in three days, Carrie, with this bank term funding program
• 9:41
  expiring as the biggest bank bailout in the United States history happened last year,
• 9:46
  and that's a part of the reason why we didn't get into the recession that
• 9:48
  was supposed to come right because we bailed it out. Well, what's coming
• 9:52
  next? Guess what? These banks are on the verge right now, and
• 9:56
  so are many of these corporations that are leading with the government. Please drop
• 10:01
  interest rates. We can't afford to keep this going. If we can't get
• 10:05
  cheap regist rates, it's not gonna happen. Hey, So just a couple
• 10:09
  of things. New York Community Bank, all right, they just got a
• 10:13
  billion dollar lifeline. So the banking crisis not over yet. And the commercial
• 10:20
  real estate collapse, I think it's probably already happened. It's already out there,
• 10:26
  and now they're just picking up pieces to it, right, But it's
• 10:31
  definitely it's definitely real, and it's hit these banks. And I actually knew
• 10:39
  this guy who is the CEO. They used to belong to the Community Bankers
• 10:46
  Association in New York. I did work for banks when I was in my
• 10:52
  former life as an attorney. But you know, this is just the beginning.
• 10:58
  I mean, if you believe in such things. Some guy had a
• 11:00
  near death experience and he said that basically, there would be a banking collapse
• 11:07
  in twenty twenty four and that we would go to cbdc's central bank digital currencies,
• 11:15
  and that we would be you know, controlled, and all this other
• 11:18
  stuff. But then in twenty twenty eight, Donald Trump would be elected president
• 11:24
  and he would give us back you know, money, paper money. So
• 11:28
  I don't believe this for two seconds. But as sure is kind of funny.
• 11:33
  And this came out like a couple of years ago. I'm this guy
• 11:37
  with his MDE. You know, it's crazy. We're insane times here,
• 11:41
  David. Yeah, when you think of narratives like this, and we you
• 11:46
  know what that dream was was was considering could feel like a reality right now,
• 11:52
  at least parts of it, you know. So it's an interesting thing
• 11:56
  to be, you know, considering some of that. One of the parts
• 12:01
  I just want to note real quick, and this is something that I don't
• 12:03
  think is on a lot of people's radar. And of course we're talking about
• 12:05
  unemployment here today. Is this when corporations get debt, they tend to be
• 12:13
  on five year terms, although they're paying a thirty year amateurized schedule. Well,
• 12:20
  every good CFO would have refinanced all the debt and got you the probably
• 12:26
  more debt than you've ever been in in twenty twenty and twenty nineteen or twenty
• 12:28
  twenty one. Hey, that's every good CFO. Well, here's the part
• 12:33
  to note, and that is we got just shy of a trillion dollars coming
• 12:35
  do in debt this year. There's like one point five trillion next year in
• 12:39
  the year after that, slightly more in the year after that slightly more than
• 12:41
  that. Well, when you get within the last twelve months or one year
• 12:46
  of the expiration data you have to renew that loan, that becomes a near
• 12:52
  term or short term liability. What does that mean? It changes the fundamentals
• 12:56
  of your balance sheet very significantly. And so if we understand where many of
• 13:01
  these corporations are right now, I believe that when they look at that balance
• 13:05
  sheet and those revisions are adjusted because of the new near term liabilities that either
• 13:11
  need to get paid off in full or refinanced at probably twice the payment that
• 13:16
  they're paying right now, at least twice, and they're going to be unemploying
• 13:22
  people. And so expect that next month, when when unemployment starts showing up,
• 13:26
  that these numbers are going to go above four. Because if we're at
• 13:30
  three nine right now, four is the next ticker. And so you know,
• 13:33
  I don't know that we're we're in such a hot and strong unemployment market.
• 13:37
  I mean, President Biden told us that there's record numbers of businesses being
• 13:41
  started right now. I don't see that. I don't see him, you
• 13:45
  know, spiking the ball at I've got the better unemployment ever. You know
• 13:48
  what, there's record numbers of businesses being started for to handle the flood of
• 13:54
  illegal aliens that are getting sucked into the country here. Hey, so gold
• 14:01
  obviously, and it's not like where Johnny Come lately is to this. And
• 14:05
  I don't think it's also that we're stop clock. I mean I buy a
• 14:09
  bitcoin. I buy a little bit, not a lot, every Monday.
• 14:13
  Every Sunday night, I buy it, and I'm up seventy percent, you
• 14:20
  know, in the past six weeks. So I must be a genius.
• 14:24
  Uh yeah, you know, when everything's I guess, to quote Warren Buffett,
• 14:28
  he says, when the tide comes in, all ships rise, but
• 14:31
  the tide goes out and you find out who's swimming naked. So I like
• 14:33
  the idea of dollar cost averaging. I like your strategy there on the weekly.
• 14:37
  I've personally done daily dollar cost averaging in just because the crypto market moves
• 14:43
  so fast and so you're getting Yeah, so the coin base is pretty they
• 14:46
  make it pretty easy to do that one hundred bucks, you do one hundred
• 14:50
  If you could afford a one hundred bucks a day, do one hundred bucks
• 14:54
  a day, you know, now that you mention it, that is what
• 14:56
  I think I'm going to do, because I firmly believe this thing's going over
• 15:01
  one hundred K. I've seen predictions of two hundred and twenty j My problem
• 15:05
  with bitcoin, yeah, and I've followed it for over a dozen years here
• 15:11
  before anybody is I've always been masterful at picking out the peaks, but the
• 15:16
  bottoms I've missed totally. Yeah. Right, But I understand it is a
• 15:22
  market, but it's a different kind of market than most of you out there
• 15:26
  are used to. But now is the time because it's eclipsed its former high.
• 15:33
  All right, It's been making higher lows and now it's making higher highs.
• 15:39
  This is the time when something like this goes up. I knew when
• 15:43
  it hit sixty seven seven last time, I nailed it to the day.
• 15:46
  When it hit nineteen seven in the twenty nineteen I believe it was, or
• 15:52
  was it twenty seventeen, I nailed it to the day. Wow, And
• 15:58
  you know I nailed it, there's no question. But I've been bad on
• 16:02
  the buys. But then I just said, dollar cost average. When it
• 16:06
  does a retrace of fifty percent from its high, get into it because I've
• 16:11
  always expected it to go lower and do a two thirds retracement and it's never
• 16:17
  done it. Fifty percent is about the best that you can do. And
• 16:22
  you know, it hit like twenty nine thousand, so it hit. You
• 16:25
  know, fifty eight percent doesn't matter when you see it. Have you got
• 16:30
  to get into it? Absolutely, everyone's going to follow their own financial advisor
• 16:37
  and all that. But what do you think of the spot ETFs at this
• 16:41
  point, David, Well, here's what's a wonderful thing about them, is
• 16:45
  that they're opening up a whole new consumer group that was not there before.
• 16:49
  And if you understand the reality that people just have been skeptical about bitcoin in
• 16:56
  general because they're like, well I hear about it, but I don't really
• 16:59
  understand it. I mean, basically takes the most complicated parts about computers and
• 17:02
  puts them and money and puts it all together in one idea. So a
• 17:06
  lot of people just don't like that. But when you go to the spot
• 17:07
  bit ETF and you can purchase that through you know, your Charles Swab account,
• 17:11
  then now that opens up a lot of institutional money that's going to be
• 17:15
  pouring in. So this is why we're seeing the pump prior to this April
• 17:19
  twentieth, having that's going to be occurring, and you know, yeah,
• 17:23
  I think it's it's going to be going up very substantially. And you know
• 17:26
  it's interesting too because this is the market leader. You should be paying attention
• 17:32
  as well to some of these alternative coins that are that are you know,
• 17:36
  rallying so significantly, because this is where I'm personally making way higher percentages.
• 17:41
  Although I own a very significant chunk of my crypto portfolio inside of bitcoin,
• 17:47
  and I am a very substantial investor in this as I've been doing so for
• 17:51
  the last two years, and it represents a significant part of my net worth
• 17:53
  at this point. So I was talking with Mark Scows and then him big
• 17:57
  libertarian guy, runs Freedom Fest every year. I'm going to be there this
• 18:03
  year in Vegas, and he wrote put together a chart for the past ten
• 18:07
  years, you said, or maybe it was eleven years, eight years,
• 18:11
  bitcoin has been far in a way the best performing investment, including this year
• 18:18
  and three years it has been the worst performing asset. So this is a
• 18:26
  dog's of the crypto play here. When it's the dog, you jump in.
• 18:30
  I mean, you know, I'm a little late to the game.
• 18:33
  But I've made money on crypto before. Look, I never stuck with it
• 18:37
  long enough because I never thought that it was going to go this high,
• 18:41
  but others did and they had me beaten. There's crypto billionaires out there,
• 18:48
  but understand bollatile market, and it can be shut down anytime the world's governments
• 18:55
  get together and decide they don't want it anymore. David, we got to
• 18:59
  get going, so just give us your final Perl wisdom on crypto's gold stock
• 19:03
  market. I'd watch this. The world is changing right now, very rapidly,
• 19:08
  and so I think that it's important that we do gain a thesis.
• 19:11
  We've gotten some ideas. I don't think that there's one idea that we should
• 19:14
  go all in on all eggs in one basket, but rather a combination of
• 19:18
  diversity. I think most people recognize that there could be something with this blockchain
• 19:22
  technology. I personally believe that it is a more efficient and effective way of
• 19:27
  the future. I think that these alt coins are a lot of them going
• 19:32
  to be the technology and algorithms that we're ultimately going to be using for apps
• 19:37
  and transactions and such in the future. If you look at the Central Bank
• 19:41
  digital currency scenario and what's going to be happening right now with bricks pay.
• 19:45
  People can just wikipedia that they're looking I believe this is speculation. I believe
• 19:51
  that they're looking at utilizing Ripple and Stellar within their system. If that happens,
• 19:56
  those are going to go parabolically up in pricing. So take a look
• 20:00
  at those for yourself and personally. That wasn't financial advice though, and then
• 20:03
  as well as far as the because they don't allow us to do it here.
• 20:07
  No, no, no, yeah, any advice you get here applies
• 20:11
  to us and us only not to you. You got to insult your financial
• 20:15
  advisor. And I always give that disclaimer. I a just tell people,
• 20:19
  if you follow any advice I give you, you will definitely lose money,
• 20:23
  at least in the short term. Unfortunately or fortunately that has turned around dramatically.
• 20:30
  I mean, David, twenty two hundred dollars gold twenty three hundred dollars
• 20:34
  gold. It's parabolic, which means you need a pullback, but the pullback
• 20:40
  is going to be short fierce, and that's when you jump in with two
• 20:44
  feet load up the truck. Yeah, and I think that silver is really
• 20:47
  the opportunity on that metal side, and I love the shiny metal HM.
• 20:52
  So's that's my personal deal. And I like physical You can hold ETFC out
• 20:56
  physical friend or physical holds some physical medals. Because look, I bought most
• 21:02
  of my silver after the collapse in nine, ten and eleven, and my
• 21:07
  average cost was around seven eight dollars a now outstanding. I bought some more
• 21:14
  recently at twenty at seventeen eighteen. Once it goes below twenty. But hey,
• 21:21
  that's me, that's you. You have to decide. Everybody's position is
• 21:26
  different. That's why you need a financial advisor like David. David tell us
• 21:30
  where we find you, how we connect with you. Hey, greed,
• 21:33
  So probably the best place to connect with us right now is just to go
• 21:37
  to fed bubble dot com. Fedbubble dot com. So fedbubble dot com is
• 21:41
  this literally saying, Hey, I'm calling this the Federiser bubble. That's what's
• 21:45
  coming next. We name things based upon the cause of the issue, and
• 21:48
  so that's what I'm calling it. And so we're helping people to navigate this
• 21:55
  different, difficult time. And the last thing I'll just note here, Carrie,
• 21:57
  is when I've got my book come out here in the next thirty days,
• 22:00
  it's called riding Bulls and Taming Bears and valuing for retirement in the twenty
• 22:06
  first century. And so what we're going to be doing here is you put
• 22:08
  your name into the fed bubble dot com. We'll let you know as those
• 22:11
  things are coming out. I'll even share some of the first chapters with folks.
• 22:15
  And you know, hey, make sure you send me a book.
• 22:18
  I'll review it for you. By the way, I've started a new site.
• 22:22
  I don't know that it's been populated yet. It's called Inflation dot Cafe.
• 22:26
  And just so you know, like I went to a certain undisclosed coffee
• 22:32
  shop and my drink was seven bucks, and I looked it's like really pissed,
• 22:37
  and then they only filled it up halfway and I say to the manager,
• 22:41
  like, what gives here? What are you doing? It's like he
• 22:45
  just shrugs, and they give me a new drink. I said, you
• 22:48
  know, you guys are not in the business is selling coffee. You sell
• 22:52
  inflation because your coffee has doubled in about four years. And thus was born
• 22:59
  the idea for Inflation Cafe. I am your personal barista who will help prepare
• 23:04
  all the measures necessary for you to navigate the cafe and the tagline is real
• 23:11
  simple, the Inflation Cafe where dollars go to die. So on that note,
• 23:18
  Inflation dot Cafe. Keep checking back, it'll be up soon. David.
• 23:22
  Appreciate you coming on. As always. We'll talk to you next month.
• 23:25
  You'd be well, all right, pleasure carry look forward to talking with
• 23:26
  you. Take care. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
• 23:32
  your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork
• 23:37
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