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Inside The Data: How Will The Salary Cap Change Impact Eagles? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
0:12
Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher and of course when we're talking data
0:15
Speaker 1: and analytics, we got with us Sam Finkel, our data
0:18
Speaker 1: and analytic analytics specialist. We do this podcast, I believe,
0:22
Speaker 1: now once a year for the last few years, where
0:24
Speaker 1: Sam you give the update on the salary cap increase
0:29
Speaker 1: in the NFL and you put into sort of Layman's terms,
0:32
Speaker 1: because money can get very wonky what that means for
0:35
Speaker 1: the Eagles and whatever situation they're currently in. I always
0:39
Speaker 1: enjoy it because I always feel like it gives us
0:42
Speaker 1: a good perspective on how the Eagles do business, and
0:46
Speaker 1: you sort of get an appreciation for certain things, including
0:49
Speaker 1: a willingness to make mistakes. We'll get into that, and
0:52
Speaker 1: then you know, I've been covering the team for god,
0:55
Speaker 1: this will be twenty something years now, twenty one, twenty
0:58
Speaker 1: two years, so you also get an idea of how
1:01
Speaker 1: they like to do things differently than the rest of
1:03
Speaker 1: the NFL.
1:03
Speaker 2: Absolutely, we're definitely gonna get into that for sure.
1:06
Speaker 1: Sure. And then I guess the byproduct of this is
1:10
Speaker 1: just how absurdly wealthy the NFL is and how much
1:13
Speaker 1: money that it makes for the cap to jump the.
1:15
Speaker 2: Way it does every year, right, Yeah, absolutely.
1:18
Speaker 1: Golden Goose. Yeah, the NFL is pretty good at making money.
1:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, do it. They do a pretty good job of it.
1:26
Speaker 1: They'll take their pot shots for a bad Bunny halftime
1:29
Speaker 1: concert for the exchange of all the money that they
1:31
Speaker 1: made and all the social media presence they got out
1:34
Speaker 1: of it. Yeah, these guys know what they're doing, absolutely
1:38
Speaker 1: all right. So I will share the screen in a minute,
1:41
Speaker 1: but just for before we start. I know, when we
1:45
Speaker 1: talk about salary cap information, you always want to make
1:48
Speaker 1: the distinction about what is out there versus what the
1:51
Speaker 1: reality is. So I'll give you the floor on that.
1:54
Speaker 2: Yeah.
1:54
Speaker 3: So the actual accurate salary cap data is privately held
1:59
Speaker 3: by the NFL, and so everything that we're reporting on,
2:02
Speaker 3: everything that we use is just a you know, a
2:07
Speaker 3: recreation of that, and so the accuracy of it is
2:12
Speaker 3: a little bit questionable, but at the same time, it
2:14
Speaker 3: is the best sources that we could have are these
2:18
Speaker 3: publicly available sources.
2:19
Speaker 2: So yeah, and I used over the cap.
2:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll be in the right ballpark. And by
2:24
Speaker 1: the way, this applies to even contracts individually that you
2:27
Speaker 1: find on over the Cap, which I think is the
2:29
Speaker 1: most reliable NFL contract site there is, But there's always
2:34
Speaker 1: certain clauses. There are certain things that are built into
2:38
Speaker 1: a lot of individual contracts that aren't even available for
2:42
Speaker 1: public consumption to those websites, and so it does skew
2:45
Speaker 1: the number slightly, but it still gives you, in general,
2:49
Speaker 1: a pretty good idea of what the team and the
2:50
Speaker 1: league is working with.
2:52
Speaker 3: I mean, a lot of the time you see, like
2:54
Speaker 3: when free agency starts, you'll see the contracts will come
2:57
Speaker 3: in and it'll be the agent reporting it or the
2:59
Speaker 3: team reporting it, and you'll see like it's skewed, like
3:02
Speaker 3: this contract is worth this, But then you look at
3:04
Speaker 3: the actual reporting and it's not that.
3:06
Speaker 1: Right, absolutely, Okay, so let's look at the way the
3:12
Speaker 1: cap was last year compared to this year and what
3:14
Speaker 1: we know.
3:15
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Yeah, so the cap went up about eight
3:18
Speaker 3: point seven percent, and it went up higher than I
3:22
Speaker 3: think everyone expected a little bit. So it was at
3:24
Speaker 3: two seventy nine point two million last year and it's
3:28
Speaker 3: at three hundred and three point five million this year.
3:31
Speaker 1: Yeah. You know what's weird is that every year the
3:33
Speaker 1: cap outside of the COVID year, right, makes a pretty
3:36
Speaker 1: significant jump. And every year the there's like a league
3:40
Speaker 1: echo chamber that is like, oh man, we did not
3:43
Speaker 1: expect to jump that big. That's really good. And I
3:45
Speaker 1: keep thinking, well, why didn't you mean? You're the cap
3:49
Speaker 1: jumps fairly significantly every year. And the NFL, just that
3:53
Speaker 1: I mentioned, is always doing things. And now the biggest
3:56
Speaker 1: thing is the expansion globally to different markets. I mean,
3:59
Speaker 1: you're going to see we already saw the first game
4:01
Speaker 1: played in Spain, right, We've seen the first game over
4:04
Speaker 1: the years played in Germany, in Mexico. We already know
4:07
Speaker 1: about the games that are played in London. And I
4:08
Speaker 1: think next year where are they playing next year France
4:11
Speaker 1: or somewhere.
4:12
Speaker 2: Or you're playing France Australia.
4:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I don't think Spain is next year, but
4:17
Speaker 3: they're doing Spain eventually.
4:19
Speaker 1: I thought they just did Spain this past year. Didn't
4:21
Speaker 1: they have one game in Spain? I could be.
4:22
Speaker 2: Wrong, did they?
4:24
Speaker 1: I came up with where all their games are? But
4:26
Speaker 1: either way, the point is obviously when you get a
4:29
Speaker 1: global audience and you get all these people going to
4:32
Speaker 1: games and buying merchandise, ride and spending money on NFL
4:38
Speaker 1: apparel or whatever, tickets. You're making more money not only
4:41
Speaker 1: in the United States, but globally. You opened up your market.
4:44
Speaker 1: So I'd always surprises me when people were like, Wow,
4:47
Speaker 1: I didn't think the cap was going to jump like that,
4:49
Speaker 1: and I'm like, well, it jumped like that last Do
4:51
Speaker 1: you remember what the the I thought last year's increase
4:54
Speaker 1: was also very similar, like a very large, almost a
4:57
Speaker 1: double digit percentage increase.
4:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was definitely a decent jump. Yeah, yeah, for sure.
5:04
Speaker 1: All Right, so you've already given this the disclaimer.
5:08
Speaker 2: That's the lawyer in me, you know, I get it.
5:11
Speaker 1: I think it's important explain the Eagles cap situation relative
5:16
Speaker 1: to the increase.
5:17
Speaker 2: Yeah.
5:18
Speaker 3: So basically, anytime that there is a base salary cap increase,
5:22
Speaker 3: you have to factor in two types of things. There's
5:24
Speaker 3: a carryover, which is the team can actually carry over
5:28
Speaker 3: a percentage of their cap, so some people that people
5:31
Speaker 3: don't know about the cap is in football it's also
5:35
Speaker 3: a floor as well, so you have to spend a
5:37
Speaker 3: certain amount, but there is a little bit of leeway there,
5:40
Speaker 3: so you can carry over some of the cap.
5:41
Speaker 2: From year to year.
5:43
Speaker 3: Yep, No, that you have to add that in, and
5:45
Speaker 3: then there's adjustments adjustments can be positive or negative.
5:48
Speaker 1: YEP.
5:48
Speaker 3: These adjustments happen because certain bonuses that the that the
5:53
Speaker 3: players receive are either likely to be earned or not
5:57
Speaker 3: likely to be earned. And if they are not likely
5:59
Speaker 3: to be earned and then do get earned, you have
6:01
Speaker 3: to get that money from somewhere so it carried over.
6:04
Speaker 3: Or if it's likely to be earned and it's not
6:05
Speaker 3: actually earned, then you get the money back.
6:09
Speaker 2: So that's where those plus or minus adjustments.
6:11
Speaker 3: And what I mean by that is if the player
6:12
Speaker 3: has I need one hundred, you need one hundred catches
6:15
Speaker 3: and they had one hundred catches the year before, that's
6:18
Speaker 3: likely to be earned. And if they only had ninety catches,
6:21
Speaker 3: then they didn't earn it, and that money needs to
6:23
Speaker 3: be credited back or vice versa. So that's that's kind
6:26
Speaker 3: of where that adjustment comes from.
6:28
Speaker 1: For example, I would say that when Devontae Smith played
6:32
Speaker 1: in the season finale to get his I think forty
6:34
Speaker 1: four yards that he needed to get to a thousand,
6:36
Speaker 1: that was probably a likely to be earned. And if
6:39
Speaker 1: there was an incentive for him getting a thousand, you
6:41
Speaker 1: would classify that as likely to be earned because he's
6:44
Speaker 1: generally a thousand yard receiver. Right. Yeah, I don't know
6:48
Speaker 1: if Zach Bond when he signed that one year deal
6:50
Speaker 1: two years ago, had any incentives. Usually you don't see
6:52
Speaker 1: that in a small one year deal for an unknown player.
6:55
Speaker 1: But I would imagine if he did earn any incentives
6:58
Speaker 1: that year, they were unlikely to be earned because who
7:00
Speaker 1: the hell could have seen Zach Bonn emerging into an
7:03
Speaker 1: All pro that year?
7:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, So the Eagles actually had a positive influx
7:09
Speaker 3: of cash of cap. Sorry, excuse me, there is a
7:12
Speaker 3: distinction between cash and cap, so I'd be very careful
7:14
Speaker 3: when I say in cap, so that about thirteen millions.
7:17
Speaker 3: So their actual salary cap is the addition of that
7:20
Speaker 3: carryover and adjustments at three sixteen seventy eight two three six.
7:25
Speaker 1: Okay Layman's terms, right. So that means while the NFL
7:29
Speaker 1: salary cap is about three hundred and three and a
7:31
Speaker 1: half million, right, the Eagles actually have a higher cap.
7:36
Speaker 1: They have more money cap to spend. Now I'm doing
7:40
Speaker 1: what you're doing, right, more cap than what the baseline
7:44
Speaker 1: is because they're carrying over cap space from twenty twenty five.
7:48
Speaker 2: Correct, and the adjustments right right?
7:52
Speaker 1: I thought I was not the adjustments in the carryover
7:54
Speaker 1: were all like, the adjustments are part.
7:55
Speaker 2: Of the carryover, right, Yeah, I suppose it is.
7:59
Speaker 3: The reason why I think there you should make them
8:01
Speaker 3: a distinction is because the adjustments don't really match, Like
8:05
Speaker 3: you can have higher your adjustments can bring you higher
8:08
Speaker 3: than the maximum carryover.
8:11
Speaker 1: Got that? Okay? That makes sense.
8:12
Speaker 3: That makes sense because you get a certain percentage of
8:15
Speaker 3: you can only do a certain percentage of carryover, but
8:18
Speaker 3: your adjustments can you push you higher?
8:20
Speaker 2: Yes, So that's why that distinction matters.
8:22
Speaker 1: Do we know what the floor is each year? Is
8:25
Speaker 1: it a certain percentage of what the cap is.
8:27
Speaker 2: Or yeah, it's a percentage. Okay, I'm blanking on right now.
8:31
Speaker 1: No, No, I just I think it's important to note
8:34
Speaker 1: that it's not a hard one. It changes obviously with
8:37
Speaker 1: the cap each year. And if you're listening major League Baseball,
8:40
Speaker 1: you may want to, you know, borrow some concepts here
8:42
Speaker 1: before we have a really long work.
8:44
Speaker 2: Stoppage that that is, we're headed towards that for sure.
8:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you got to play fair if you
8:50
Speaker 1: want if the if major League Baseball wants a hard cap,
8:53
Speaker 1: and I can get it at this point, you know,
8:55
Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers have sort of Hey, credit to them,
8:58
Speaker 1: they've they've made a little bit of a mockery of
9:00
Speaker 1: the cap the way the Yankees did in the nineties.
9:02
Speaker 1: Then at least have a floor so that the pirates
9:05
Speaker 1: is of the world can't just sit there and you know,
9:07
Speaker 1: collect money from everybody else while they put a piss
9:10
Speaker 1: poor product on the field intentionally while they make money. So,
9:13
Speaker 1: I mean, you got if you're gonna have a cap,
9:15
Speaker 1: you gotta have a floor. I think that that's there's
9:16
Speaker 1: a give and take there.
9:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, the NFL has a great model for their salary cap. Yes, structure, yep.
9:24
Speaker 1: What else did you want to mention here about dead
9:26
Speaker 1: there's active cap spending and dead money.
9:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, so to figure out how much cap space they have,
9:31
Speaker 3: you just have to subtract how much they're actually spending
9:33
Speaker 3: and how much they're on the book for from you know,
9:36
Speaker 3: pass contracts, right, and so you look at that the
9:40
Speaker 3: Eagles have about two hundred and fifty million in active spending,
9:44
Speaker 3: and then then they're dead money. They have about forty
9:46
Speaker 3: four million, which is a lot for the forty four
9:50
Speaker 3: is a lot.
9:52
Speaker 1: Right, So I know that there's gonna be a conclusion
9:55
Speaker 1: drawn from this, right, there might be a knee jerk reaction. Boy,
9:59
Speaker 1: if the Eagles didn't have forty five million dollars nearly
10:03
Speaker 1: in dead money, Look how much more cap space they
10:06
Speaker 1: can have? Right? And how would you answer that question, Sam.
10:11
Speaker 3: Well, there's a lot of benefit into taking the dead money.
10:14
Speaker 3: I mean the way that Howie Roseman structures his contracts.
10:16
Speaker 3: He puts void years and you know the void years,
10:19
Speaker 3: you still have to pay for them, and it allows
10:22
Speaker 3: them to push the cap off as it increases. So
10:25
Speaker 3: how he's a strategy. Really if you look, we really
10:28
Speaker 3: only I'm only really gonna be talking about twenty twenty
10:31
Speaker 3: six and the implications here, but most of the dead
10:34
Speaker 3: money is really going to hit in twenty twenty nine.
10:37
Speaker 3: That's what a lot of the dead money's gonna hit.
10:39
Speaker 3: And you know why that is significant?
10:41
Speaker 2: I was just.
10:41
Speaker 1: Gonna ask Sam, why is that significant in twenty twenty nine?
10:45
Speaker 3: So the biggest input into the formula of why salary
10:50
Speaker 3: cap increases is the TV media rights and the NFL
10:55
Speaker 3: TV media rights deal expires in twenty twenty nine, which
10:58
Speaker 3: means a new one will be coming in which presumably
11:01
Speaker 3: and what Howie Roisman is betting is that it is
11:04
Speaker 3: going to increase exponentially, and so it's it's just the
11:08
Speaker 3: time value theory of money, right, It's it's you know,
11:11
Speaker 3: you're you're borrowing against future money.
11:14
Speaker 2: You know, this is really what's happening.
11:16
Speaker 1: So yes, it took a global pandemic for Howie to
11:20
Speaker 1: be wrong about money and contracts, and it's honestly not wrong.
11:24
Speaker 1: It just didn't couldn't foresee it coming, right. I mean,
11:27
Speaker 1: the cap goes up every year, and as you just mentioned,
11:30
Speaker 1: there are years where either the CBA is renegotiated or
11:34
Speaker 1: the TV rights deals are renegotiated, and that always brings
11:38
Speaker 1: in a larger influx of money. And that's those are
11:41
Speaker 1: the years that Howie and other gms do this too.
11:44
Speaker 1: I don't want to say how he's the only guy,
11:47
Speaker 1: but I will say, uh, while everybody knows when those
11:50
Speaker 1: TV deals are coming in, and they can structure their
11:53
Speaker 1: contracts as such. The Eagles are usually among the leaders
11:57
Speaker 1: in dead money on their cap, and the reason why
12:02
Speaker 1: it's high risk but high reward is because they're also
12:05
Speaker 1: one of the few teams that can give out as
12:08
Speaker 1: many lucrative extensions as anyone else in the league. I mean,
12:13
Speaker 1: they have four of five starting offensive linemen all under
12:16
Speaker 1: market value extensions. Right, they're about to do that probably
12:21
Speaker 1: with Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter. They signed Saquon Barkley.
12:25
Speaker 1: They have both Devonte Smith and aj Brown. You can
12:28
Speaker 1: go to teams that don't do it this way and
12:30
Speaker 1: have a hard time finding the same number of talented
12:33
Speaker 1: players on big time contracts because they're not willing to
12:37
Speaker 1: kick the can down the road and absorb. They're not
12:39
Speaker 1: willing to take their risks. So we get through this.
12:42
Speaker 1: Dead money is usually only an issue if you miss
12:45
Speaker 1: on a player or you have to get rid of
12:47
Speaker 1: a player, and we'll get into that because the Eagles
12:49
Speaker 1: have had to do that quite a bit. But that's
12:52
Speaker 1: the high risk part of it that yields an even
12:54
Speaker 1: higher reward. Yeah.
12:56
Speaker 2: Absolutely couldn't have set it better myself.
12:59
Speaker 1: All right, you have the butt here? What?
13:03
Speaker 2: Yeah?
13:03
Speaker 3: But so there is a nice little quirk in the
13:09
Speaker 3: salary cap during the off season where you just basically
13:13
Speaker 3: have to include the top fifty one players in the
13:16
Speaker 3: salary cap, but including that top fifty one and the
13:19
Speaker 3: projected rookie.
13:20
Speaker 2: Class their effective salary cap.
13:22
Speaker 3: Like what actually is probably going to constrain them, is
13:25
Speaker 3: around fifteen million instead of that twenty million number.
13:29
Speaker 1: Just because they have more draft picks than and you
13:32
Speaker 1: assume that they're going to draft x amount of players.
13:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, and also like which actual contracts impact? Right, So
13:40
Speaker 3: the Eagles have sixty five players signed including the futures contracts,
13:45
Speaker 3: which is the third most in the NFL, and so
13:48
Speaker 3: not all those contracts count against. But also in the
13:51
Speaker 3: cap space doesn't actually account for the rookie draft class.
13:54
Speaker 1: Right, So this is this is actually really good, Intel, Sam,
13:57
Speaker 1: because I think we've gotten this question, like when the
14:01
Speaker 1: season starts and you're supposed to be under the cap,
14:04
Speaker 1: or even when like training camp starts and you have
14:07
Speaker 1: I think the rosters are now at eighty or seventy
14:09
Speaker 1: nine or eight. I forget what the overall number is.
14:12
Speaker 1: It's it's pretty significant. And then you get like five
14:14
Speaker 1: or six guys who get hurt during camp, so you
14:16
Speaker 1: have to sign four or five camp bodies. And then
14:19
Speaker 1: there's the preseason finale where you're not gonna play any starters, right,
14:22
Speaker 1: so then you got to sign like four or five more.
14:24
Speaker 1: People are like, how do you just sign these guys
14:27
Speaker 1: to these one year deals and it doesn't impact yourself.
14:29
Speaker 1: It's because they usually don't make enough to be among
14:32
Speaker 1: the top fifty one that count against your cap. Right,
14:37
Speaker 1: So that's how it works that way.
14:39
Speaker 2: Yep, exactly.
14:41
Speaker 1: And as you just as you wrote here for people
14:44
Speaker 1: who are not seeing on the YouTube, the Eagles right
14:47
Speaker 1: now have sixty five players, that's third most of the NFL, yep,
14:50
Speaker 1: all right, and they have the eighteenth most cap space
14:53
Speaker 1: in the NFL, which to me matters none because the
14:57
Speaker 1: Eagles are masters at creating cap space through extensions and restructures.
15:06
Speaker 1: So if they need want, if they need money, it's
15:09
Speaker 1: not a problem. They know how to create it. And
15:11
Speaker 1: you know, it's never been I can't ever remember a
15:14
Speaker 1: time where you're like, oh, man, maybe coming out of
15:16
Speaker 1: the COVID where they had to make some decisions, but
15:18
Speaker 1: where they're like, ah, they can't afford this guy because
15:21
Speaker 1: they don't have the money. There's times where they can't
15:23
Speaker 1: they don't want to pay a guy because they have
15:25
Speaker 1: to pay other guys of the serve. They still do
15:27
Speaker 1: business like a normal business, right, Like if you're gonna
15:30
Speaker 1: have Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis making top end money,
15:34
Speaker 1: you're probably not. That's why you're not gonna get a
15:36
Speaker 1: Milton Williams extended at that price, or you're not gonna
15:40
Speaker 1: probably do it for Morojomo. But the point is if
15:43
Speaker 1: they need money, they know how to create it.
15:45
Speaker 3: It's so interesting you say that, because we're gonna be
15:47
Speaker 3: talking about that over the cap producer roster flexibility analysis.
15:51
Speaker 1: I love that.
15:52
Speaker 3: And the Eagles are the least flexible team in the
15:55
Speaker 3: NFL right now. They're so cap constrained right that the
15:59
Speaker 3: restructures not are not going to help them as much
16:01
Speaker 3: as they have in the past.
16:02
Speaker 1: That is a good point. Like I know, like Lane
16:04
Speaker 1: Johnson might be a really good example of that because
16:07
Speaker 1: he's owed a lot of money and he probably doesn't
16:08
Speaker 1: have a year. But I don't know how much more
16:10
Speaker 1: they can take and keep adding void gears to that
16:13
Speaker 1: as well. So yeah, they've got some things they kind
16:15
Speaker 1: of figure out, all right. So I love this pie
16:19
Speaker 1: chart for roster construction because this is something Howie Roseman
16:22
Speaker 1: alluded to in that end of the year press conference.
16:24
Speaker 1: Look at how much green there is for the offense.
16:26
Speaker 3: Sam, Yeah, I mean it's two thirds of their salary
16:29
Speaker 3: is simply just dedicated to the offense, and it makes
16:33
Speaker 3: sense when you consider how many rookie contracts are on
16:36
Speaker 3: the defense.
16:36
Speaker 1: Yes, from Quinia Mitchell to Cooper de Jean to Jalen Carter,
16:40
Speaker 1: Jordan Davis, reblank Well, reblankershops not on a rookie deal,
16:44
Speaker 1: but he's on a like a restricted free agent one
16:47
Speaker 1: year thing I think it was, or maybe that. I
16:49
Speaker 1: think they maybe gave him a one year extension off
16:51
Speaker 1: of that, which was tiny, right n Kobe dean rookie
16:55
Speaker 1: contract still.
16:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a pretty significant chunk of their ross
17:00
Speaker 3: is just that offense. And that's why it's such a
17:02
Speaker 3: shame that the offense didn't perform, because you're putting two
17:06
Speaker 3: thirds of your salary cap. Of course the numbers were
17:09
Speaker 3: different last year, but it was substantially similar.
17:13
Speaker 1: Right right, Yeah, Wow, defense thirty and that's gonna have
17:19
Speaker 1: to flip this offseason, as how we alluded to because
17:22
Speaker 1: again Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, we'll probably have to get paid.
17:28
Speaker 1: Is there anybody else on defense? Let's go, well, I'm
17:32
Speaker 1: trying to think of anyone. Moral Jomo is up against it.
17:34
Speaker 1: We oh, Jaylen Phillips, if you want to keep Jalen Phillips.
17:37
Speaker 1: You're you're probably going to have to give him a
17:39
Speaker 1: significant amount of money as well.
17:41
Speaker 2: For sure, it'll be interesting what we get.
17:43
Speaker 3: We'll do a free agency video at some point, the
17:47
Speaker 3: internal free agents, and we'll talk about the salary camp
17:50
Speaker 3: implications there too.
17:52
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the dead money.
17:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, so again forty four million, it's the third highest
18:00
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Do you want to guess who has
18:02
Speaker 3: the first and second highest dead money?
18:10
Speaker 2: One of them is obvious.
18:11
Speaker 1: Uh, it's gotta be the Bronco, Right, I still take
18:13
Speaker 1: Do they still take a hit for the Russell Wilson contract.
18:16
Speaker 2: With the Broncos?
18:16
Speaker 1: Oh well, it's usually like if you get rid of
18:20
Speaker 1: a quarterback, right, Uh, uh, it's I'm sure there's an
18:24
Speaker 1: obvious one that I'm thinking of.
18:26
Speaker 3: The obvious one is the team that always has salary
18:29
Speaker 3: cap issues every single year.
18:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, right, right, because because well Carr retired though
18:35
Speaker 1: I don't know how, right, didn't he retire?
18:36
Speaker 2: Yeah he did?
18:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, so they just had a bunch of old guys
18:40
Speaker 1: though that they took a lot of hits on. Yeah,
18:41
Speaker 1: Saints and then the number two team I would say
18:46
Speaker 1: could be Saints.
18:48
Speaker 3: Actually might be two. The number one team is number
18:51
Speaker 3: one team. Surprised me a little bit.
18:53
Speaker 2: I mean it was team division, but not the Dolphins Jets.
19:00
Speaker 2: It is the Jets.
19:02
Speaker 1: Bad teams stay bad for a reason. Sam, I'm just
19:06
Speaker 1: trying to think who is their dead money? Who goes
19:08
Speaker 1: because they traded Oh well, they traded Sauce Gardner, that's why.
19:12
Speaker 1: So they took a huge hit on him, and they
19:15
Speaker 1: also made another quinnin Williams. They had to take the
19:18
Speaker 1: dead money on that. Yeah, I mean that's so for
19:21
Speaker 1: makes sense.
19:22
Speaker 3: For everyone listening or watching. Basically, the reason why when
19:26
Speaker 3: you trade a player there's a lot of dead cap
19:29
Speaker 3: is because there's a function of the salary cap where
19:34
Speaker 3: you can pro rate a signing bonus over five years
19:37
Speaker 3: of the contract. But so it means the player gets
19:41
Speaker 3: the money immediately.
19:42
Speaker 1: But that's why that's why it becomes dead money because
19:45
Speaker 1: another team can't absorb money that's already been.
19:47
Speaker 3: Paid exactly, but for accounting purposes, you can pro rate
19:50
Speaker 3: it over the five years. The problem is, once that
19:52
Speaker 3: player is no longer on the roster, it accelerates and
19:55
Speaker 3: all that money becomes due from an accounting perspective, and
20:00
Speaker 3: that's where that dead money because it's money that was
20:02
Speaker 3: already spent, but it doesn't count against the cap.
20:04
Speaker 1: Right, and then it's way Matt right in a minute
20:07
Speaker 1: with the AJ Brown situation. Yeah.
20:09
Speaker 2: Absolutely, So that's that's where that quirk comes in.
20:12
Speaker 3: But an example of the players still counting for dead
20:15
Speaker 3: money in twenty twenty six for the Eagles is Bryce
20:18
Speaker 3: Huff at around almost seventeen million yep, Darius Sleigh at
20:22
Speaker 3: a little over thirteen million, and James Bradberry over around
20:28
Speaker 3: almost eight million.
20:29
Speaker 1: Amazing, right, I mean that's three players taking up like
20:33
Speaker 1: thirty six million dollars. I mean that's almost two thirds
20:35
Speaker 1: of what their whole dead cap is.
20:38
Speaker 2: Yeah.
20:38
Speaker 1: So I'll say this, what this shows is two things.
20:42
Speaker 1: One it's it's almost like it shows the best and
20:45
Speaker 1: the worst of Howie Roseman. It shows from a negative
20:49
Speaker 1: side that his evaluate I think of all the things
20:52
Speaker 1: of him as a GM, he has so many strengths.
20:54
Speaker 1: His weakness to me and Adam and I have talked
20:57
Speaker 1: about this in the podcast, is evaluating players for the
21:00
Speaker 1: team that they run. I think Bryce Huff is a
21:02
Speaker 1: shining example. He's not a bad place. He was actually
21:06
Speaker 1: playing fairly well for the Niners this year back in
21:08
Speaker 1: a wide nine scheme. Then he got hurt, then he
21:11
Speaker 1: went through a dry spell, but he was more productive
21:14
Speaker 1: for them than he was for the Eagles for sure, Right,
21:17
Speaker 1: brad Berry was a function of having the greatest defensive
21:22
Speaker 1: front in Eagles history that year, and clearly his warts
21:25
Speaker 1: came to play sligh not so much, you have to.
21:28
Speaker 1: That's just part of the kicking the can down. The
21:30
Speaker 1: money you got with you good years out of him.
21:33
Speaker 1: But if you go look at how he's free agent signings,
21:36
Speaker 1: there's a lot of misses and there are a lot
21:38
Speaker 1: of skill you know, you go back to Terrell Edmunds
21:40
Speaker 1: and trading for Kevin Byerd and things like that, where
21:43
Speaker 1: he brought in players the linebacker Devin White, Right, I
21:46
Speaker 1: mean he brought in players that big money that did
21:49
Speaker 1: not fit what the Eagles were going to do. And
21:51
Speaker 1: I think that that's a little bit of a blind
21:53
Speaker 1: spot that he has as a GM. However, he can
21:56
Speaker 1: compensate sometimes by luck. Zach On it's a good example
22:01
Speaker 1: of that, okay, But also knowing the market for a
22:04
Speaker 1: running back is really low and getting a player like
22:06
Speaker 1: Sae Kwon Barkley at less than what guards are making
22:10
Speaker 1: right is what won them a Super Bowl two years ago,
22:14
Speaker 1: So it shows, it shows both. If you were to
22:17
Speaker 1: do a list of Howie's free agent signings, like all
22:20
Speaker 1: of them, of note, like I'm not talking about like
22:23
Speaker 1: little veteran guys you never heard of, but like the
22:25
Speaker 1: notable ones over the last three to five years, like
22:28
Speaker 1: all of them, you probably find way more misses than
22:31
Speaker 1: hits if we're being ring fair. I mean it just
22:34
Speaker 1: Greedy Williams comes out and there's just so many guys
22:36
Speaker 1: that he signed for either depth or to play a
22:38
Speaker 1: role that didn't work out. But the few that do
22:41
Speaker 1: push are the ones that push them over the top.
22:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, exact bought exactly, Yeah Barkley.
22:47
Speaker 1: Who else was a good free agent signing that we
22:51
Speaker 1: can think of? I mean, Dory Jackson was Okay, that's neither.
22:53
Speaker 1: I wouldn't call that a hit or a miss. Makai
22:56
Speaker 1: Beckton small one that worked out really well, right, but
23:01
Speaker 1: yeah you can find I mean, look at the DeVante
23:03
Speaker 1: Parker wide receiver, the trade for Jahan Dottson give up
23:06
Speaker 1: a third round pick. That was as much as you
23:09
Speaker 1: know you and I like him because of Penn State.
23:11
Speaker 1: A third round pick for a guy who's gonna catch
23:12
Speaker 1: twenty balls is not good business, to be honest with you.
23:15
Speaker 1: But so that, yeah, that's just a it's the gift
23:18
Speaker 1: of the curse.
23:19
Speaker 2: I think that's really well said. I'm glad we got
23:21
Speaker 2: to talk about that a little bit.
23:22
Speaker 1: I agree. All right, let's talk about the aj Brown situation.
23:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, so there there really are are three scenarios, right,
23:32
Speaker 3: I mean, he either remains on the roster, he's traded
23:35
Speaker 3: or released. And there's a distinction that is made in
23:39
Speaker 3: here about the designation of pre June first or post
23:43
Speaker 3: June first, And that's also a CBA nfl PA quirk
23:48
Speaker 3: that is basically, after June first, that number can be
23:54
Speaker 3: carried over to the following year. If it's pre June first,
23:57
Speaker 3: then that number has to be all eaten on that
24:01
Speaker 3: year of That's that's.
24:02
Speaker 2: Why June first exists.
24:04
Speaker 3: It's an arbitrary date that's picked out in the CBA,
24:08
Speaker 3: and that's that's why it exists. And you always hear
24:11
Speaker 3: that June first distinction. It is somewhat arbitrary, but it's
24:14
Speaker 3: just it's the reason why it exists is because you
24:16
Speaker 3: can either move some of the number to the net
24:19
Speaker 3: the following year, or you have to eat it all
24:20
Speaker 3: in that year. That's that's really what when they say
24:22
Speaker 3: June first.
24:23
Speaker 2: That's what they mean, right right.
24:26
Speaker 3: So if aj Brown remains on the contract, it remains
24:31
Speaker 3: on the roster, he'll be owed his twenty three point
24:34
Speaker 3: three nine million dollar salary and all.
24:38
Speaker 2: Will be the same, yesh in.
24:42
Speaker 3: If he is released pre June first, which is the
24:46
Speaker 3: column all the way to the right, it'll be forty
24:49
Speaker 3: nine million.
24:51
Speaker 2: Dead just like dead money.
24:54
Speaker 3: And basically if it's post June first, it'll be twenty
24:58
Speaker 3: one point nine to six dead money. Both of those
25:01
Speaker 3: scenarios cannot and will not happen.
25:03
Speaker 1: Good, I'm just so glad you. But I always gonna say,
25:05
Speaker 1: spoiler alert, we don't even have to talk about a
25:07
Speaker 1: release because it's just not gonna happen. But yes, and
25:10
Speaker 1: it was important to point out the necessary information though.
25:14
Speaker 3: But if he's traded, everybody's saying you can be traded
25:18
Speaker 3: draft night, it's not gonna happen.
25:19
Speaker 2: It can't happen if.
25:21
Speaker 3: He's traded pre June first, or and again he can
25:24
Speaker 3: be traded before with a post June first designation, but
25:28
Speaker 3: it won't happen during draft night. It'll be twenty million,
25:33
Speaker 3: just dead money for the.
25:36
Speaker 2: First time though, By the way, can I just I think.
25:41
Speaker 1: Nothing you say is wrong. I don't think there is
25:43
Speaker 1: officially a thing called like a post June first designation.
25:46
Speaker 1: It's just that you make a trade, you agree to it,
25:49
Speaker 1: and then you agree not to submit the paperwork until
25:52
Speaker 1: after that. Yeah, it's not like you can do it
25:54
Speaker 1: now and then you send to the league like designated
25:57
Speaker 1: for June second or something like that.
26:00
Speaker 2: Yeah.
26:00
Speaker 3: I suppose from this like it's a little bit more
26:03
Speaker 3: nuanced than the way I was describing it.
26:05
Speaker 2: No.
26:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, but because it became that category on these websites,
26:08
Speaker 1: I think people thought that that like existed, so we
26:10
Speaker 1: just wanted to clarify it.
26:11
Speaker 2: Yeah.
26:11
Speaker 3: No, that's that's a good point to bring up. But
26:15
Speaker 3: for the first time in a long time, it actually
26:19
Speaker 3: is possible to trade aj Brown's contract post June first.
26:24
Speaker 3: You would save seven million on the hour cap so.
26:28
Speaker 2: For this year, right, yeah, just for this.
26:31
Speaker 1: Year now that I don't think you would you because
26:34
Speaker 1: when you post June for something, it allows you to
26:38
Speaker 1: split correct the debt right from year one and year two.
26:42
Speaker 1: So I think in year two there would be some
26:44
Speaker 1: dead cap, but in year one there would be financial relief.
26:47
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, all right, I can tell you the exact
26:53
Speaker 3: Just give me one second, I'll tell you the exact
26:56
Speaker 3: ramifications of it.
26:59
Speaker 2: Okay, So AJ Brown.
27:03
Speaker 3: Trade post Yeah, so you'd lose about four million in
27:10
Speaker 3: cap space in the next year.
27:11
Speaker 1: Which is I mean, that's nothing when you're already among
27:14
Speaker 1: the league leaders in dead cap over forty million. So
27:17
Speaker 1: an a rise and cap to boot, you know. So yeah,
27:21
Speaker 1: so you could argue though, Also, because his contract goes
27:25
Speaker 1: through I think twenty twenty nine and has a lot
27:28
Speaker 1: of optionimized, there's savings for down the road, right, if
27:33
Speaker 1: you were to move AJ Brown in a trade this
27:37
Speaker 1: year post June first type trade, which is important if
27:41
Speaker 1: you're viewing him as an aging player who may only
27:46
Speaker 1: have one or two really good years left. Right because
27:49
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Everybody thinks Eagles are going to trade him
27:52
Speaker 1: because he's unhappy. I don't think that that's really the
27:56
Speaker 1: crux of it all. That's part of it. If he
27:58
Speaker 1: was happy, model citizen and everything's going well, he'd probably
28:00
Speaker 1: be on the team. But his money is getting bigger,
28:04
Speaker 1: His age is getting older, hist production is declining, and
28:09
Speaker 1: the Eagles like to be among the forefront of getting
28:14
Speaker 1: rid of someone a year earlier than a year late. Yes, okay,
28:17
Speaker 1: I think that matters as much as anything, as temperament,
28:21
Speaker 1: as disgruntledness with the I think that that's a big
28:24
Speaker 1: way of looking at it. I remember when they gave
28:26
Speaker 1: Alshon Jeffrey an extension in his what second or third
28:31
Speaker 1: year from his original extension, and that was a mistake,
28:35
Speaker 1: we wondered at the time. We didn't understand he was
28:37
Speaker 1: getting older. He wasn't a speed receiver, so he was
28:40
Speaker 1: and he was already starting to like not be able
28:42
Speaker 1: to have the athleticism that he used to have, and
28:44
Speaker 1: it bit him in the ass. Sam, you remember that.
28:46
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, of course, Yeah.
28:48
Speaker 1: To the point where he was hurt. And then when
28:49
Speaker 1: he came back, they felt like they had to play him.
28:51
Speaker 1: This was Chillen Hurts's after he had taken This is
28:53
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, the disaster of twenty twenties, and they're out
28:56
Speaker 1: there like playing this veteran guy on a terrible team
29:00
Speaker 1: when they had young guys that could have occupied that role,
29:02
Speaker 1: because they felt like, well, he's making this money, we
29:05
Speaker 1: should play him.
29:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's a tough spot to be in.
29:08
Speaker 3: And how he does make these overcorrections, these big swings
29:13
Speaker 3: in the opposite direction after he fails at something or
29:17
Speaker 3: I maybe fail is too harsh a word, but after
29:20
Speaker 3: something doesn't work out, they'll swing completely in the other direction.
29:23
Speaker 2: And that's kind of what you see.
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32:45
Speaker 1: Right. All right, you were talking about the roster flexibility analysis.
32:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Eagles have the least roster flexibility in
32:55
Speaker 3: both simple and maximum restructures. And what over the cap defines.
32:59
Speaker 3: This simple restructure is basically something a team can do unilaterally.
33:04
Speaker 3: It's where you convert the payments into a pro rated
33:06
Speaker 3: signing bonus within the confines of the remaining contract. And
33:10
Speaker 3: then a maximum restructure increases the amount of salary cap
33:14
Speaker 3: via conversion into pro raded signing bonus by either extending
33:17
Speaker 3: the contract or adding void years. That one needs players consent,
33:20
Speaker 3: and it's typically a negotiation between the team and the
33:25
Speaker 3: player itself. So right, basically, if they do simple restructures,
33:30
Speaker 3: they can only save two hundred and thirty.
33:32
Speaker 1: Six thousand dollars, a lot of money.
33:35
Speaker 3: Which is negligible in comparison to every other team. In fact,
33:40
Speaker 3: a lot of the teams that have negative salary cap
33:42
Speaker 3: will do these simple restructures and fixed a lot of
33:46
Speaker 3: their issues, and then if they do a maximum restructures,
33:50
Speaker 3: there's still the least at seventeen point two million.
33:56
Speaker 1: So now you kind of look back at some of
33:58
Speaker 1: the moves that Eagles made last year year, right trading CJ.
34:01
Speaker 1: Garder Johnson, some things that were unpopular where they knew,
34:06
Speaker 1: you know, eventually you have to pay the piper, no
34:09
Speaker 1: matter how many times you kick the can down the road,
34:11
Speaker 1: and if you have to make moves that try to
34:13
Speaker 1: give you as much financial flexibility going forward as you
34:18
Speaker 1: possibly can, and they're not always popular moves. And last
34:22
Speaker 1: year we also saw for the first time in a
34:25
Speaker 1: couple of years, like the Eagles still put out more
34:27
Speaker 1: cash spending than any other team year to year, but
34:30
Speaker 1: they spent less. There's a little bit of a tightening
34:33
Speaker 1: of the purse strings last year. It'll be interesting to
34:35
Speaker 1: see if that's something they have to continue with this
34:38
Speaker 1: year because of this restructuring that that it was Jason
34:43
Speaker 1: the guy. He's the guy who leads who does the
34:44
Speaker 1: over the Cap website, right, I imagine he's the one
34:47
Speaker 1: that put this together. Yeah, I can't remember his last name,
34:50
Speaker 1: do you remember it? I like to cite him, but
34:52
Speaker 1: I can't remember.
34:54
Speaker 2: It just says Jason.
34:57
Speaker 4: Yeah.
34:57
Speaker 1: I think he's put his it's Fitzgerald, Yeah, Jason Cheryl.
35:00
Speaker 1: He does a great job. I think he is a
35:04
Speaker 1: past relationship with someone from the Eagles. Perhaps he does
35:07
Speaker 1: yeh or no, no, no, you know what, it's Eagles
35:09
Speaker 1: have a contract guy Bryce Johns. Johnson used to work
35:12
Speaker 1: for over the Cap And I think that that's why
35:15
Speaker 1: I love that Jason created this roster flexibility analysis because
35:19
Speaker 1: I believe he did it to stay in tune with
35:24
Speaker 1: how the Eagles and other teams, but mostly the Eagles
35:26
Speaker 1: operate financially year to year, which is constantly restructuring to
35:30
Speaker 1: create cap space. So then he came up with, well,
35:33
Speaker 1: almost anticipating it, what can they do looking at all
35:36
Speaker 1: their contracts, So he's it's like a little cat and
35:39
Speaker 1: mouse game of the Eagles take the lead on doing
35:41
Speaker 1: something different than the people catch up than they did.
35:43
Speaker 1: You know they go well.
35:44
Speaker 3: For sure, I agree, And the big takeaway from this
35:48
Speaker 3: analysis is when the Eagles will create more cap space
35:53
Speaker 3: for themselves, it'll be somewhere between two hundred and thirty
35:56
Speaker 3: six thousand to seventeen point three million. It gives us
35:59
Speaker 3: that kind of an idea of that range. Now that's
36:01
Speaker 3: a pretty significant range, of course, between the two, but right,
36:05
Speaker 3: I think that's one of the takeaways at least.
36:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, a lot of time the Eagles, and we'll
36:08
Speaker 1: see this will end on this is that they create
36:11
Speaker 1: caps based in a given year by giving out extensions
36:14
Speaker 1: that have really low year one cap numbers, like they
36:18
Speaker 1: did that with Hertz, right, and I imagine with Jalen
36:21
Speaker 1: Carter and Jordan Davis. If these guys wind up getting
36:24
Speaker 1: extensions that their number, their their their cap in year
36:28
Speaker 1: one will be very minimal as compared to like year three, four,
36:32
Speaker 1: five six or whatever they do with any.
36:34
Speaker 3: Year three, four, five six is going to be post
36:37
Speaker 3: this TV media rights deal.
36:39
Speaker 1: Correct, Correct, So by the time that kicks in, whatever
36:42
Speaker 1: they're making versus whatever the cap is is a smaller
36:46
Speaker 1: percentage of what it would be if it were done
36:48
Speaker 1: this year, if you were to put that money into
36:50
Speaker 1: year one.
36:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, just just for an idea that it's not outlandish
36:55
Speaker 3: to say that the cap after that might be at
36:57
Speaker 3: five hundred million.
36:58
Speaker 1: Oh my god, the lord.
37:01
Speaker 3: It may not be exactly that high, but it's not
37:04
Speaker 3: far fetched to say, and that that's a two hundred
37:06
Speaker 3: million increase.
37:08
Speaker 1: I keep wondering what will be the When will the
37:11
Speaker 1: NFL jump the shark on being able to not like
37:14
Speaker 1: because they do things we talk about expansion globally, new
37:18
Speaker 1: TV deals with streaming services like Netflix and Amazon that
37:22
Speaker 1: were willing to pay as much, if not more right
37:26
Speaker 1: than what the networks we're paying. Like, what when will
37:28
Speaker 1: it all come to a head where they just can't
37:32
Speaker 1: pay anymore? You know what I'm saying. I don't know.
37:35
Speaker 1: You and I might be six feet under.
37:37
Speaker 2: Hopefully we keep watching NFL, you know, but yes, I
37:42
Speaker 2: agree with you.
37:43
Speaker 3: It's I just hope it doesn't adversely affect the consumer,
37:47
Speaker 3: the fan.
37:49
Speaker 1: I think it already has my friend.
37:52
Speaker 2: More.
37:52
Speaker 1: I think it's like this. It's made a lot, it's
37:55
Speaker 1: brought out a ton of complaints, but it hasn't stopped
37:58
Speaker 1: people from watching. Yes, that's what they no.
38:01
Speaker 2: That's true, that's true.
38:03
Speaker 1: All right, great stuff. Really appreciate all the work that
38:05
Speaker 1: you put into the SAM. I think it's a really
38:07
Speaker 1: good look as we get ready with free agency less
38:10
Speaker 1: than a month away. But you know, you don't have
38:14
Speaker 1: to get the free agency. I mean you can start
38:15
Speaker 1: doing contract extensions and things like that. You got to
38:18
Speaker 1: take care of your in house before you go outside
38:20
Speaker 1: the house. And in the coming days and weeks, I
38:23
Speaker 1: imagine that will be happening. The combine will be later
38:26
Speaker 1: this month, and that's usually where a lot of these
38:28
Speaker 1: discussions start to take place or continued, and then you
38:32
Speaker 1: come back. That's usually when you see a lot of
38:34
Speaker 1: the extensions, right in between the end of the combine
38:37
Speaker 1: and the start of the new league year on March ninth. Yep,
38:41
Speaker 1: all right, great stuff, Sam, thanks so much. We'll we
38:45
Speaker 1: got to come up with a couple of new topics
38:46
Speaker 1: now for some Inside the Data is going forward.
38:48
Speaker 2: You're ready to do that, Yeah, I'm ready.
38:50
Speaker 1: All right. Well you're getting your out your Free Agency
38:53
Speaker 1: Algorithm episode.
38:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be ready for it.
38:56
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff, Sam, Thanks so much. You've been
38:58
Speaker 1: watching and listening to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
39:02
Speaker 1: Catch you all on the next one.