Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / ACC Chaos: Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Transcript

ACC Chaos: Predictions, Picks & Best Bets · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, I'm going through my ACC Football twenty
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: twenty six predictions, best bets, win totals, preview and more. Well,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: come in. This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seekers and go on
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: to let me get through this right quick, right. I
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: got a new channel for the clips. You can find
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: it on YouTube. Search for WCECFB Clipse or just search
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: wc Eclipse and you'll be able to find it's the
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: football one. You can also find my shorts videos on Instagram.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: That's at Winning Cures Everything. And I'm on TikTok and
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: x at Gary WCEE. All right, let's talk about the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: ACC because this conference walks into twenty twenty six with
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: one incredibly easy question and about one hundred hard ones.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: The easy question, of course, who's got the best team,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: and that's Miami. I don't think there's much of a
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: debate there. The Hurricanes came within about a minute of
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: winning the national title. I mean they had a drive
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: at the end of the game where they could have
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: taken the lead. They're about as close as you can get.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: They went into the portal, they grab one of the
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: best quarterbacks in the country. They've simply got more proven
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: talent than anybody else in this league, and that's after
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: they lost as many people as they did. The hard
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: question for the ACC is everything that comes after Miami? Right,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: who is actually the second best team here? Like? Is
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: it SMU with Kevin Jennings and maybe the cleanest schedule
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: out of any of the legit contenders? Is it Louisville
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: where Jeff brom just keeps one of nine games and
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: now he might have the best running back room in
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the conference. Is Clemson still Clemson? Are we going to
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: watch a just massive transition season of the Dabos Swiny era?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Then you got more questions like, James Franklin, can you
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: make Virginia Tech matter again? Can NC State turn the
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: easiest conference schedule in the league into a trip to Charlotte?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Was Virginia's eleven win season that started something real? Or
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: was it, you know, just a one year portal miracle
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: that nobody can recreate? Like what do we do with
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Duke the defending ACC champion? Which is still funny to
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: say after Miami just walked off with the quarterback and
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: their top receiver. Right, that is the twenty twenty six
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: ACC right now, Miami miles ahead on paper, but behind
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the Hurricanes, the whole thing's wide open. You got returning quarterbacks,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: you got transfer quarterbacks, you got major coaching changes, contenders
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: that are rebuilding entire offensive lines, teams that are replacing
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: whole defensive fronts. Right like, some programs are gonna play
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: eight conference games, others are gonna play nine, and because
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: the schedules are so flopsided, like the second best team
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: in this league might not even be the team that
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: ends up in the second spot in the ACC championship game.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Last year, Miami played for the national championship and the
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: schedules broke in such a way that they didn't even
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: play in the ACC title game. You had Virginia and Duke.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: How weird is that? Like the two teams that beat
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Miami didn't even make it to the a SEC title
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: game either, And that's kind of what makes this league fun, right.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: The a SEC is not the deepest conference in football.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: It might not have a clear second national title contender.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: But it's got enough quarterbacks, enough coaches, good coaches, enough
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: roster turnover, and of course the scheduling weirdness that's gonna
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: give us chaos of almost every single Saturday. So today
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna break down all seventeen teams, and we'll do
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: it relatively quickly. Right, We're gonna go through the tiers,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, the coaching changes, the best offenses, the best defenses,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the schedule breaks, the scheduling disasters, the championship race. I'm
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: gonna hit on win totals, I'm gonna hit on futures markets,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: and hopefully by the end of this what know, I
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: will give you my projected title game. I'll give you
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: my ACC champ. I'll tell you who the surprise team
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: is going to be and the program that I think
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: is most likely to take a real step back. So
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: let's go ahead and get into it. The simplest way
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: to explain the ACC is that they are top heavy
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: in exactly one spot and shockingly balanced everywhere else. Miami
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: is eighth the nationally NSP plus numbers. The next ACC
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: team behind them is Clemson all the way down at
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: twenty three. But that's a huge gap. Right from Clemson
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: at twenty three, then you're down to NC State at
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: forty seven. You got nine ACC teams packed into just
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: a twenty four spot window. Right, you got Clemson, Louisville, SMU,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, Florida State, Virginia, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Duke, and
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: NC State all bunch together. So Miami separated themselves from
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the pack nobody else really has, and the market sees
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: it the same way. Miami is minus one thirty six
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to win the conference. Second choice is SMU at plus
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: seven hundred. Louisville is at plus eight hundred, Clemson is
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: all the way back at plus fifteen hundred. That is
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: a massive jump from first to second, and once you
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: get past Miami, the pricing basically admits the market has
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: no idea what to do, Right, SMU, Louisville, Clemson, Virginia, Pit,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, Inc. State all being priced as different flavors
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: of the same idea. Right, they're good enough to get
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: to Charlotte, They're not trustworthy enough to actually expect it.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And this league has some recent history working against anybody
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: trying to make it look predictable. Right. I talked about
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: this before, but twenty twenty five ACC Championship, like Duke
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: won that they didn't even sniff cracking the college football
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: playoff rankings. Miami didn't win the conference. Still snuck in
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: as in that large bid, and that's how important those
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: non conference games are. Everybody, go ahead, stop scheduling hard games.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: We'll see. But they made it all the way to
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the national title game. That's the whole personality of this
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: conference in one sentence, the ACC can produce a national
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: championship team and a totally unexpected conference champion in the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: same year. Now Miami's carrying a different kind of pressure
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: now though this isn't a program that's getting hyped off
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: recruiting rankings and brand name anymore. They have proven that
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: they can win playoff games, They've proven they can handle
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: postseason pressure, They've proven they can line up with the
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: best teams in the country and actually compete for it.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: And then Mario crystal Ball went out and got Darien Mensa.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: And some people may not be as high on Mensa
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: as I am, but I mean, I'm sold on this dude.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: He came over from Duke. He threw for roughly thirty
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: nine hundred yards, He had thirty four touchdowns to just
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: six interceptions in Miami went ahead and took his top
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: wide receiver there as well, Cooper bar Kate. So it's
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: not just that they poached the defending ACC Champs quarterback.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: They took the quarterback and his favorite target in the
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: same offseason. In mensa, I mean, he's walking into a
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: room that's already got Mark Fletcher, Jamar Brown. He's got
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Malachai Tony, who is a Swiss army knife. He's got
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Gerard Kringle Junior. Tony alone put up over thirteen hundred
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: yards from scrimmage last year. He had eleven touchdowns as
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: a receiver, of runner and returner. Fletcher is You're proven
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: lead back, and the depth behind him lets the offense
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: come at you from a dozen different angles. Now, the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: question for Miami is not skill positions, right, it's up front.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: They're replacing four offensive line starters. They're also replacing a
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: big chunk of their defensive production, like Ruben Bain Junior
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: a key mesador, Francisco malgoa linebacker. Let's see Wesley Busante
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: or Bizeh. Y'all correct me in the comments like I'm
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: gonna get better with these names. I swear to God.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: All those guys are good, right, like all and they're
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: also all gone along with that pass rush they helped
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: carry the team through the playoff run like Miami's got
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the recruiting talent to be able to plug holes, and
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: it feels like people are just forgetting that. Damon Wilson,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the seconds has shown up. He racked up nine sacks
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: and almost fourteen percent pressure rate at Missouri. Replacing talent
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: and replacing proven production are not always the same thing,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: at least with at least with him, you got some
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: returning production. Got you know what you're getting that's it's
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: not returning, it's proven. How about that proven production. Miami's
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: just still have one of the best secondaries in the country. Right,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: It's still the best overall roster in the league. But
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: they're asking new faces to hold down the two spots
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: where continuity matters the most. That would be the offensive
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: line and the defensive front. The other divining story of
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the conference is going to be quarterback movement, right It's everywhere.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, we just talked Mensa from Duke to Miami.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Ethan Grunckemeyer followed James Franklin from Penn State to Virginia Tech.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Lincoln con Holes transferred from from Ohio State to Louisville.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Ashton Daniels went from Auburn to Florida State. Bo Perbula.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: He went from Missouri to Virginia, and he's gonna compete
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: with another former starter Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein, Alberta Mendoza.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: He came over from Indiana to Georgia Tech. Billy Edwards Junior.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: He went from Wisconsin to North Carolina and he gets
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: to as long as he's healthy, he's gonna have Bobby
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Patrano Collin plays for him. We'll talk about that later.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: But Geo Lopez, he went from North Carolina two wake
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Forest Davis Warren transferred from Michigan to Stanford Walker Egitt
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: went from San Jose State to Duke Like, how about this?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: It is just an absurd amount of movement at the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: most important position on the field. The teams that kept
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: their guy have I think on early edge right sm
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: MU'SIC got Kevin Jennings. N C State still got CJ. Bailey,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Uh Pitt, He's got our Pitt. Nordoozi He's got Mason Heinchel,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: who showed up late last year and was just awesome.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Cal Of course we had even talked about this one.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Jared Kiahwei Song of Pelatilly aka JKS right, Syracuse is
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: gonna get Steve Vangeli back and everybody else is like
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: plugging in a brand new quarterback, developing a first year guy,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: first year starter, or uh. They're running a competition that
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: is probably not gonna be settled until deep in the camp.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: And that's why the championship race could wing pretty fast. Right.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Miami has a proven guy, sm U's got a proven guy.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: In C State's got a proven guy. But Louisville, Clemson,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, Virginia and Georgia Tech, they're all betting their
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: new options get up to speed quickly enough to keep
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: pace right. Coaching changes, biggest one in the league is
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: it's got to be Virginia Tech, the hoky Sire James Franklin.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech went five straight seasons without a winning regular
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: season record, which is just wild to think about. Franklin,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: of course, brings his quarterback with him. He brought offensive
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: coordinator Ty Howell, brought tight end Luke Reynolds, and a
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: handful of players and recruits with Penn State ties. And
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: then this is one of the more interesting moves of
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the whole offseason. Former Virginia Tech head coach Brent Prye
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: came back as the defensive coordinator. So he was just
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: fired last year, decided to stay on as James Franklin's DC,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: and there's a reason for that. They have a working history.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Priye was his defensive coordinator at Penn State. Now Franklin
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: he doesn't need Virginia Tech competing for a national title
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: right away. He just needs to establish baseline competence. We
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: talked about this with Purdue last year. Like Barry Otem,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: nobody's expecting anything out of you at Purdue, but if
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: you can get them to a level of competence, that's
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: all you're looking for. And Virginia Tech just needs to
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: re establish that. Raise the recruiting floor some, which he's
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: already done, get the Hokies looking ornaes again, get seven
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: wins or eight wins this year to feel normal instead
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: of like a stretch goal. Right They ranked fourth nationally
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: in returning production this year, so it's not a full
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: tear down. There's enough continuity here for Franklin to show
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: some real improvement pretty quick. The catches, of course, that
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the schedule is a little difficult. Miami, Clemson and SMU
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: all road games. That's a really difficult path to Charlotte,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: even if the Hokies genuinely get a lot better Clemson.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: They're dealing with the biggest reset of the Debo Swinty era.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: They went from national championship expectations to a seven and
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: six season last year, and now you got to go
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: and replace what was it nine nine NFL draft picks
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: like Cadeklubnik is one of seven offensive starters gone, Five
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: of their top seven defensive linemen are gone, three top
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: fifty NFL draft picks, and they fired their offensive coordinator.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: So Debo brought back Chad Morris to run the offense,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: and he finally got a little aggressive in the portal.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: They added ten players. The questions are still major though.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Right Christopher Vezina, he waited behind Klimnik for two seasons,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: solid in his one career start, but like, nobody knows
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: what he can do. Can he carry a whole offense?
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Yet we have no idea. And then the freshman Tate
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Reynolds he could push his way into the mix. And
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: while Chad Morris knows Clemson, familiarity is not the same
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: thing as certainty, like he hasn't run a high level
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: college offense in years. He was fired at Arkansas forever ago,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: so he hasn't even worked in college football in a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: long time. But we gonna see, like, we'll see exactly
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: what happens with that. There's still plenty of talent at Clemson.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: The receivers are good, Sammy Brown might be the best
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: defensive player in the ACC. Will helt He gets another
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: He gives the front seven another proven piece right there.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: And then Clemson has also got a fairly favorable league
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: schedule and they get Miami at home. It is a
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's a classic case of talent versus trust. Right,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the roster says they should probably be looking at nine
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: or ten wins. The recent results and the quarterback transition
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: kind of tells you need to be careful with this.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: As far as more coaching movement, there's a lot more
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: scattered around the league as well. Tosh Lapoi takes over
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: at Cal. He was Oregon's DC. He's got Jordan Somerville
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: running the offense, Michael Hutchings running the defense, and Nick
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Rolovich is coaching quarterbacks. Retaining song of Pelatelli was the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: biggest win, the biggest thing that Lupoy could do in
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: his first offseason, But almost everything else around him is
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: brand new, right, Stanford promoted Tavita Pritchard, and you know
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: they're leaning back into their traditional identity. Terry Heffernan takes
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: over the offense there, Chris Richard runs the defense. Georgia Tech,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: they replaced both of their coordinators. George Gottsei takes over
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the offense. Seymour is running the defense, all while replacing
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Haynes King, who was their stud quarterback, but also Jamal
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Haynes ten of their top twelve pass catchers. I mean,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that's a rough transition, SMU. They are handling their turnover internally.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: But now they've got three offensive co coordinators and two
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: defensive co coordinators. Some internal continuity can be a good thing.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I've got some questions about authority and roll clarity until
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: we actually see this whole thing in action, right. Florida
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: State promoted Tim Harris Junior after Gus Milesahm retired. North
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Carolina added Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. I mentioned that
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: already Syracuse maybe one of the best hires of this
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: entire offseason. I had been hyping Vince Carris at Toledo
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: for bigger jobs for the last three years. Yeah, yeah,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: three years, and Syracuse finally been on him, but they're
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: trusting him to to fix the defense, make things better
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: at Syracuse, because man, their defense has been bad. Bill O'Brien,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: of course taking over play calling at Boston College, Ted
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Roof is running the defense there. Louisville moved to Steve
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Ellis and Mark Ivy as their co defensive coordinators, and
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: they've got to rebuild a unit that's gonna lean heavily
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: on transfers like they usually do. Like the overall coaching
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: talent in this league really probably went up. It also
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: got a lot more volatile schematically, and then of course
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: we got to talk scheduling. The scheduling format is weird.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: No team's added, none left. Notre Dame is still and
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: just an affiliate outside of the championship race. But several
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: of these teams are moving from eight conference games to nine,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: and there's some it's so odd teams could finish this
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: year with different numbers of league games, different strength of schedules,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: very different paths through the standings. The twenty twenty five
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: format produced a five way tie for second place. Twenty
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: twenty six might solve some of that, but they're going
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to have a brand new pile of tiebreaker headaches. So yes,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Miami is the clear favorite. But it's not like this
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: is a clean conference. It's it is built for weird
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: standings and surprise contenders and arguments about who really deserves
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: a spot in Charlotte. You want extra winning cures, everything content,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and a way to support the show directly head over
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: to buy me a coffee dot com slash winning cures
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and become part of the community today. Are you tired
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: of sore knees or joints slowing you down? Ghost Leaves
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: uses built in kinesiology tape technology to give you support,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: reduce pain, and help you recover faster. Use codewcee for
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: fifteen percent off over at ghost leaves dot com. All right,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: let's get into the tiers, and Tier one might be
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: the easiest tier we've ever built. Right, it's just Miami,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: that's it. Hurricanes have got the best quarterback in the league,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: best overall skill talent, best secondary, deepest recruiting pipeline. They're
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: projected twelfth nationally on offense, seventh on defense. Mensa gives
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: them proven high end quarterback play. Barcade already knows how
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: to play with him. Malachai Toni might be the most
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: verstable offensive player in the ACC. Fletcher brings physicality. The
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: young backs behind him give Miami some explosive depth on
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: top of that, and the schedule helps too, right they
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: avoid SMU and Louisville, the two most reliable challengers in
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: the league and the two teams that beat them last year. Now,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: they do have to go to Clemson on October third,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: and the biggest overall game on the slate is at
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame on November seventh, which is not a conference game.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: They also open conference play with three straight ACC road games,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: which matters because Miami has a habit of making easy
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: games harder than they need to be. That might be
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: putting it nicely. They are expected to be favored in
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: eleven games. I have them favored in all eleven games,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: and by roughly two touchdowns and ten of them. I mean,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: that's that's crazy. The floor for this team is probably
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: around nine to three if the line struggles, the new
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: front seven takes time, or if they drop another game
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: as a big favorite, but the ceiling is pretty obvious here.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Miami can win the ACC, they can get back to
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the playoff, They can win the National championship. No other
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: team in this conference has that complete a range of
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: outcome sitting on the roster. Now, Tier two is where
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: things start to get interesting, right, because I think there's
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: more than just two teams in Tier two. I think
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: you've got SMU and Louisville, But then Clemson, Virginia Tech
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: and Ency stated and SMU has got the cleanest path
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: of anybody. Right. Kevin Jennings enters year three as a starter,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: and his total QBR hit seventy six or higher last year.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Like I wrote that note down wrong, when his QBR
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: hit seventy six or higher, SMU only had one loss
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: that he can beat you throwing or running. His health
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: and turnover variants have led to some pretty uneven stretches,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: but still, this is a super experienced guy that has
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: won a lot, that has been to the playoff, that
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: has been to an ACC championship game. The offensive line
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: is the best in the conference, and that gives the
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: most tank stability when they replace their top four yard
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: yards from scrimmage producers, Right Kendrick Rafell, he should get
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: a bigger role in the run game, but SMU does
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: still need like a true lead playmaker to step up.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: The defense lost eight linemen who played real snaps, so
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: that's a legit worry and the co coordinator set up.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's got to actually work for this to work.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: But the schedule is basically built for a title run.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: They avoid Miami and Clemson, they draw the bottom five
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: projected teams in the league. They get five conference home games.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: They could be favor in ten games total. Now, the
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: early road trips to Florida State and to Louisville are
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: gonna tell us everything we need to know about this team,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: and Notre Dame is the biggest non conference test. But
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: SMU doesn't have to beat Miami to reach Charlotte, and
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: that is a massive advantage that nobody else has in
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: this tier. Louisville might be the most trustworthy program below Miami.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Jeff Brohm has won at least nine games in each
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: of each of his first three seasons. He might have
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: the most explosive backfield in the league. Isaac Brown Kewan Brown.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: They combined for over fifteen hundred your rushing yards last year,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: eight point one yards per carrey. That is a running
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: game that can create explosive plays without leaning on the
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: passing attack to manufacture everything. Now the receiver's got an upgrade.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: The schedule is manageable. SMU, Florida State, and pitt All
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: come to Louisville and they draw seven of the bottom
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: ten teams in the conference. Now the worry is that
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: everything between the quarterback and those running backs is all
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: up for grabs. Right Lincoln con holes He's got talent,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: he's got athleticism. He barely played at Ohio State, though,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: and Louisll's got only one returning contributor on the offensive line.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: That is a lot of pressure to put on an
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: unproven quarterback. Brahm has done fine with quarterbacks, like even
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: even Mason or Miller Miller Moss. Even Miller Moss last
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: year wasn't great. He lost his starting job at USC,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: but they were able to do some things with him
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: last year. Uh. The defense, the defense might be fine,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: but only five of sixteen defenders who played two undred
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: plus snaps last year back. So Steve Ellis and Mark Ivy,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: they've they've got to get a portal heavy group to
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: mesh quickly. Like Louisville's got eight games projected within one score.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: Now they're projected to win most of those It's the
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: kind of schedule where quarterback play and you know a
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: few late game decisions are going to string the difference
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: between ten and two and seven and five. If con
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Holes is ready, Louisville can absolutely win this league. If
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: he's not, this is still probably an eight or nine
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: win team, but getting too Charlotte gets a whole lot
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: more difficult. Clemson is a team that's got the widest
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: range of outcomes in this whole tier. They're still second
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: in the league and overall es pe plus quality, still
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: recruit at a really high level, still have one of
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the best receiver groups in the conference. Sammy Brown gives
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: him an elite receiver or an elite linebacker. Excuse me,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Will Helt should stabilize the front. The schedule does create
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: some real opportunity. Right Miami comes to Death Valley, they
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: avoid several of the toughest challengers, but Clemson opens at LSU,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: they hit Miami early in conference play, and they close
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the year against South Carolina. And on top of that,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: everything hinges on whether Vizena and Chad Morris can actually
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: make this offense work or whoever ends up playing quarterback.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Clemson doesn't need a top ten offense to win nine games.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: The defense in the schedule can carry a lot of
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: the weight. They just can't spend another season beating themselves
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: at plus fifteen hundred to win the league. That price
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: is a lot more interesting than it was a year ago.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: The problem is that the price only exists because the
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: market has just completely stopped trusting Clemson, and who can
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: blame them? Virginia Tech is the coaching upgrade. Play right
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Franklin instantly gives them a more established structure. Grunkeemeyer already
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: knows the offense. I mean. Over his final three starts
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: at Penn State, he completed seventy six percent of his passes.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: He had eighty five point two total QBR. Now that
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: was without Franklin, but it's the same. It's the same offense.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Right Luke Reynolds gives him a familiar target. The offense
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: should carry the same physical identity that Franklin and Howell
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: used in Happy Valley. The returning production gives them a
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: workable year one foundation, and the early schedule buys them
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: a ton of time. They don't see a projected top
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: thirty opponent until they travel to Clemson on October twenty fourth,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: and they should be favored in every home game before that. Now,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: that's nearly two months for Franklin to develop this roster
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: and build some confidence. The bad news is that the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: biggest games are all on the road Clemson, Miami and SMU. Right,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech can get dramatically better. Still missed the AEC
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: title game. But if if this team is sitting at
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: six and one or seven or zero in late October,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be one of the biggest stories in the conference. Like,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: people will not look at schedule at that point. And
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the more people talk about this, the better they're gonna
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: be like going forward because they just want to create
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: some noise. It's gonna help with recruiting and everything else.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: And then there's NC State. I hadn't talked about NC State.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: This is my schedule based long shot. CJ. Bailey threw
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: for thirty one hundred plus yards last year twenty five touchdowns.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: He is the best returning acc quarterback as far as
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: total QBR. He's got a strong arm that's combined with
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: the ability to escape some pressure and be able to
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: create on the move as well. The issue is his
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: receiving core got rebuilt and the new portal additions, they
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: got to produce right away. Right the defense is also finished.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Outside the sp plus top sixty and back to back seasons,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: that's not good enough for an actual title push. But
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Dave Doran did catch an incredible draw here. They avoid Miami,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: they avoid Clemson, they avoid SMU, they avoid Virginia Tech.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: They play six of the projected bottom seven teams in
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: the league, and as far as my schedule model, they
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: are number one as far as the easiest acc draw.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Now the early stretch like Virginia, Vanderbilt, Louisville, you're gonna
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: have to step up in those games, but you can
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: establish yourself really quickly. And there's also that, well, no,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: they're not doing that in Brazil anymore. Be a game
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: against Virginia in Charlotte, so you know, or not in Charlotte,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: excuse me, wherever it is. I should have put all
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: this stuff in my notes. The fact of the matter
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: is that if Bailey can carry a rebuilt skill group
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: and the defense ends up climbing from bad to like average,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: n C State's gonna win nine or ten games. They
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: don't need to be the second best team in the league.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: They just need to cash in on the schedule. They're
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: sitting in front of them, and they should be favored
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: to the majority of these games. Tier three is just
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: a giant collection of volatable Bowl teams, right Virginia, Pitt, Duke,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake, Forest, col and Syracuse. Virginia
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: coming off in eleven and three season. I got no
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: idea how much of that roster actually carries over. They've
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: only got sixteen players that are returning out of forty
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: who play two hundred plus snaps. But they're bringing in
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: another thirty man transfer class, which means Tom Elliott is
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: once again gonna bet on instant chemistry. The quarterback battle
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: is interesting both Perbula and Eli Holstein. That's two real options.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I don't I'm not gonna say anything
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: totally negative here, but you get the point. Holstein, Well,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Prebula adds mobility, he adds experience. Holstein has already proven
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: that he can play in this league, although he did
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: drop off significantly and then lost his job at Pitt,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: but he's proven that he can play in the a SEC.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: The schedule is really friendly. They avoid Miami, they avoid Clemson,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: they avoid Louisville. Six of the opponents come from the
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: bottom eight of the conference. They are three toughest conference
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: games Florida State, SMU, and Virginia Tech. Those are all
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: on the road. That schedule, to me keeps Virginia relevant.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: But I don't think they're gonna get back to another
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: ten win eleven win season, right, I'm just not out
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: of this heavily reconstructed roster. I think that's a stretch.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Pitt has got more continuity at quarterback. Mason Heinschel improved
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: as a freshman season went on last year. The offensive
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: line is experienced. The run game should be a strength.
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Pitt should stay fittible up front as long as Pat
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Nardouzi is there old Nard dog doing it up. The
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: problem is most of the receiving production and a big
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: chunk of the secondary need to be replaced. Right. The
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: road slate is just brutal at Miami, at Louisville, at
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, at col like that trip to Cal is rough.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I trust Nardoozy to keep the team competitive. I am
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: a lot less confident that they can finish games against
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: that kind of a schedule. Duke is an interesting one, right,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: They're the defending champs, but it's a totally different offense now.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Mince's gone, Barcade's gone. Top through receiver are gone. Walker
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Eget comes in from San Jose State at quarterback. Nate
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Sheppard gives him a proven running back behind a pretty
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: solid line. Manny Diaz has earned real trust right and
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Duke lived in a ton of close games last year.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Six of their conference games are again projected to be
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: within one score, and that means the defending champ could
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: finish eight and four, but they could also mean five
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: and seven. Like that's the margin is so thin for
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: this team. Florida State is one of the toughest teams
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: in this league to project because they were better numbers
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: wise than their five and seven record in just a
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: ton of efficiency metrics. The receiver room should be should
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: be a real strength this year. Ashton Daniels, he's a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: physical runner. He might provide more stability than Tommy Castellanos
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: did even without the explosiveness. And that's not to say
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: he can't be explosive. It's just it's a little different
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: way that they play the game. And then the run
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: defense has a chance to be maybe the best part
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: of Florida State's roster, but the Seminoles replacing their top
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: seven offensive linemen and the schedule ranking second hardest in
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: our model, as some sources have got it the toughest
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: in the ACC. That's gonna be tough, right They faced
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the projected top four teams, six of the top eight.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: They got to travel to Alabama, they travel to Louisville,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: they travel to Miami, and they also have to play
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Florida at the end of the year. This team could
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: get genuinely better without the win total moving at all.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: They could go five and seven again and be better
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: than they were last year. They probably need to be
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: at least six and six to show you're better than
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: last year, but still, Georgia Tech is an interesting one.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Might have the most offensive attrition in the league. Haines
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: King has gone, Jamal Haynes has gone. Already told you
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: ten of the top twelve pass catchers have left, and
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: both coordinators changed. But they're bringing in Fernando Mendoz's brother,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Alberto Mendoza, and Graham Knowles is there too. They're both
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: going to compete at quarterback. Mendoza posted a ninety nine
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: point four total QBR in just a tiny sample size
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: behind his brother in Indiana. Neither of these guys has
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: proven that they can replace King. Yet Justin Taynes comes
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: over from Michigan, Malachi Hosley comes in gives them a
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: talented backfield. Everything else is kind of under construction right
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Only North Carolina returns less production than Georgia Tech does,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: and they only play eight ACC games while most teams
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: play nine, which could matter a lot in the standings.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: But also don't forget that Georgia Tech has to play
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Georgia at the end of the year and that has
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: not worked out very well for them recently. Wake Forest
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: is my biggest regression worry in this whole tier. They
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: went nine to four last year, but they were four
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: and one in one score game. The offense was wildly inconsistent,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: even with an experienced line, and this year they've got
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: four starters gone from up there as well. Geo Lopez
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: replaces Robbie Ashford at quarterback. That might be better. I mean,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: this offense was atrocious last year. They were so bad.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: The defense won them a ton of games, and the
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: defense should stay respectable, but the schedule gets way tougher,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: the travel gets heavier. Wake draws three of the projected
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: top four ACC teams. A respectable defense this year might
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: not be enough to stop a real drop and wins.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: And that's what I think is gonna happen with wake Forest.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Cal is a lot of fun. They've got one of
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: the better quarterbacks in the league. I already talked about,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get this name right, Song of Polatelli, song
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: of Poola, Telly Jks. That's all I called him last year.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: That's probably what I'll be calling him most of the
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: time this year. But still he threw four nearly thirty
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: five hundred yards as a true freshman. Keeping him in
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Berkeley was the single most important thing tos Lapoy did
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: all off season. But almost everything around him is brand new,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: new staff, new skill group, defense is being rebuilt. Offensive
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: line is still a question mark. KYL does not get
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: a buy until November seventh, and they've got multiple cross
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: country trips on the docket. The Action network duck over
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: there projects Cal to hold only one field goal or
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: better edge or advantage against FBS opponent all season. They're
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: probably not wrong there, right Like Song of Poloteley can
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: elevate the team, but asking one young quarterback to overcome
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: all of that structural weight is a huge lift. Now,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the fact that he's willing to take it on, I
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: think that says a lot about him because he could
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: have left for a lot of different places, but he
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: wanted to stay at Cal. Here's that. Syracuse is probably
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: the most interesting team in this year relative to expectations.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: They won just a couple of games last year, but
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Steve vangel is expected back. The quarterback depth has improved,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: and hiring in Vince Carris as the DC that should
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: make the defense noticeably better. I think he is a
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: superstar higher. They also draw four of the bottom six
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: projected ACC teams. Like the turnover and regression indicators both
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: point the same direction, which is up. Thanks Phil Steele.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: This might not be an eight win team, but it
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: also doesn't need to be to beat the market. Now
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: your bottom tier is Tier four. What an odd bunch
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: we have here. North Carolina, Boston College and Stanford. North
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina added Bobby Petrino to run the offense, which should
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: raise the overall competency of that unit. Billy Edwards Junior
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: is the safer veteran option at quarterback. Miles O'Neill gives
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: him a younger developmental path. The problem is that all
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: five offensive line starters are gone. But with the way
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: they played last year, maybe that's a good thing. And
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the early schedule is just brutal here, TCU, Clemson, Notre Dame.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: That is the worst kind of schedule to be sorting
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: through a brand new line and a quarterback competition simultaneously. Right,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: There could be progress later in the year, but this
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: is still a rebuild and starting with those three games early, like,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: that's as rough that is rough Boston College. They at
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: least have like a clear offensive identity, right. Evan Dickens
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: should be one of the better running backs in the league,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: but O'Brien takes over play calling that gives the offense,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: you know, a real shot to maximize him. The quarterback
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: picture is still kind of murky because you got D
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: two transformation Mackenzie in the mix, but you've also got
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Arkansas transfer Grayson Wilson. Like that competition probably needs to
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: get settled pretty quickly. I've got questions about Ted Rufe
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: with the defense right, Like, there is certainly some risk
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: there because it's not like Ruf has had a lot
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: of successful tenures as DC, and yet he still keeps
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: getting jobs. Boston College has the hardest conference schedule in
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: my model, this team could improve in spots and still
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: struggle to win more than four games, which is why
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the win total is so low. Stanford is they're starting
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: a major rebuild under TV to Prichard Davis. Warren brings
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: experience in leadership at quarterback, but he's also got seven
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: career touchdown passes against ten interceptions. Dylan Rizzick is another
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: option in the mix. Stanford has not won more than
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: four games in a season since twenty eighteen. They got
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: to make five cross country road trips this year. Like
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: stability would already count as progress, I think climbing out
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: of the bottom tier is probably gonna take a little
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: more than that. All right, let's talk strengths and weaknesses.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: The biggest strength here is pretty obvious. Miami gives the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: league a real national championship contender. Right. They're not in
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: the playoff conversation just because somebody from the ACC has
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: to be. They already made the title game last year.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: They upgraded at quarterback in my opinion, and they kept
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: their elite weapons intact. Along with that, there's real quarterback
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: quality beyond Miami Jennings has got plenty of experience at SMU.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Bailey's coming off thirty one hundred yards and twenty five
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: touchdowns at NC State. Song of Polatelli Jks nearly hit
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: thirty five hundred yards last year as a freshman at
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: cal Mason. Heinchel gives Pitt some continuity, And I mean
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: he was really that Notre Dame game in Miami game
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: just wrecked him. But before that, I mean there was
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of legend growing about that kid. Grunkemeyer, Like
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: he flashed real promise late in the season at Penn State,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: before he followed Franklin to Virginia Tech and then Steve Anjelly.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Very few people are talking about. But he gives Syracuse
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: a rebound path and Syracuse was good last year with
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: him at quarterback. Now the supporting cast has changed a
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: little bit. We'll see what they look like, but still
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: Angelly was good. The running back talent is a strength
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: in this league. It might be just as deep as
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, like Miami's got Fletcher Brown and Pringle, Louisville's
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: got Isaac and Keewan Brown. Georgia Tech has got Justice
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Haines and Malachi Hoseley Duke has got Nate Shephard, Smu
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: has got Kendrick Rafael, and then Boston College has Evan Dickens.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Like on top of that, the league, they've got nationally
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: relevant coaching names top to bottom. Mario Cristobal really, you know,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: helped his stock last year. Jeff Brohm, like everybody talks
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: about him. Dabo Sweeney is still up there because he's
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: won a couple of national titles. I say, back in
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the day, that's been less than a decade ago, but still,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: you know, like RhD Lashley, James Franklin, you got Bill Belichick,
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Manny Diaz, Pat Nardoozy Dave Doran Toash Lupoi. There's no
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: shortage of storylines with these coaches. The problem with this league,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: the weakness, is that there's no established second power, like Miami.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: We already talked about some of these numbers. Miami is
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: number eight and SB plus right now, Clemson is next
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: to twenty three, and you've got between twenty three and
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: forty seven. You've got nine teams in there. So it's
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Miami and then everybody else. I think that's I don't
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: think that's necessarily good for anybody the other big weakness
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: is turnover at the line of scrimmage. Just across the board,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: ned I feel like this is the same thing with
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: every conference everywhere. Miami is replacing four offensive line starters.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Louisville only has one returning contributor upfront. Florida State is
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: replace placing their top seven linemen. North Carolina is replacing
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: all five starting linemen, Wake Forester is replacing four. Georgia
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Tech we're building the whole interior. Clemson technically has more continuity,
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: but a lot of that only exists because injuries forced
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: younger players onto the field last year, and the defensive
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: front losses are just as bad. Miami loses the core
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: of their playoff pass rush. Clemson replaces five of their
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: top seven defensive linemen. Louisville only returns five of sixteen
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: defenders who played two hundred plus snaps. SMU lost eight
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: contributing defensive linemen, and Duke has to replace their top four.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: That's why so many teams in this conference are hard
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: to trust. The quarterbacks and the coaches can create good football,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: but close games usually come down to protection and pressure
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: and running the football and third downs right, and way
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: too many acc teams are rebuilding those exact areas right now.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: All right, so let's talk about players and best units
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: in this conference. Darien Mensa is the best quarterback in
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the ACC and probably the most important player in the conference. Yeah,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I want to say that. I think he's the most
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: important player on the in the conference. Thirty four touchdowns
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: against six interceptions last year, and now he's moving from
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: duke supporting cast to Miami's like. He's already got bar Kate,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: He's already got Tony, He's already got Fletcher. He's got
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: a stat group of young backs behind him if the
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: line gives him time. Mensa has got a real heisman path,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: and Miami has got a national championship offense. Jennings is
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: second for me at SMU purely because of the experience
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: plus the dual threat combo. Right, his best games can
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: be anybody in this conference. But the question is whether
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: he avoids the turnovers, if he can stay healthy, and
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: if he can produce in a way we'll just say,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: if he can produce across an higher championship run. Right. CJ. Bailey,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I think his third strongest arm among the top returning quarterbacks.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: He's capable of dragging in C State through the soft
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: parts of the schedule. As long as the new receivers
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: hold up their end. Jks I think is fourth. He
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: might have the highest individual ceiling outside the top three.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: He was already flirting with what did I say, thirty
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: five hundred yards as a true freshman. The only question
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: is whether caw can actually protect him and surround him
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: with enough talent because his number, It's not like his
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: numbers were great last year, but for what he had
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and what he was, he was pretty good, pretty good.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Mason Heicheel is fifth. He's he got better with experience.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Should have a pretty good line and a pretty good
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: running game behind him. Number six for me, Grunckemeier. His
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: late season numbers were excellent. His familiarity with Franklin and
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: with Howel and with Reynolds that should smooth the transition here.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Best offensive league that belongs to Miami their twelfth or
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: projected twelfth nationally, with the best overall skill position group
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: in the conference. Duke is surprisingly projected nineteenth, even after
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: losing Mensa and Barkate, And that just kind of gives
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: you an idea of how much confidence there is in
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Nate Sheppard and the offensive line and with many ds'
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: ability to keep the whole operation functional. SMU projects twenty fifth,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: behind Jennings in the veteran line. Virginia Tech is thirty
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: fourth and sees state thirty fifth, Louisville thirty sixth. Louisville
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: mighte have the league's best rushing attack, but its offensive
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: ceiling I think depends entirely on kind holes and that
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: rebuilt line. The best defense is also going to be Miami.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: They are seventh nationally now the secondary could be elite.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Wilson gives the pass rush for proven transfer piece. Clemson
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: is projected at sixteenth with Sammy Brown and will help
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: leading that group that they still got a lot of
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: frontline turnover to sort through. Louisville is number twenty six here,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Virginia is twenty seventh. Florida's state thirtieth. SMU and Wake
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Forest just outside the national top thirty, although SMU's defensive
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: line losses and wakes possible offensive decline could put some
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: extra train on both of those units. The best overall
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: playmaker in league, I think is going to be Malachi Tony.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: The best running back, I'll say Isaac Brown. I think
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: that's yeah, I feel good about that. Best defensive player
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Sammy Brown at Clemson, though Damon Wilson might have the
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: strongest pass rush profile. As far as the NFL eyes,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: that's that's possible. Best receiver group is going to be Miami's,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: followed by Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and SMU. The best
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: offensive line in the ACC, I think that goes to SMU,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: but you've got some other experience wins. You got Virginia,
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, pitt that also have some pretty experienced groups there.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: Maamy's got the recruiting upside up front, just not the
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: continuity yet, although I think they're probably gonna be great.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: The best secondary in the league is Miami's, Clemson and
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. They've got pieces to become high end units
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: as well, shirts, hoodies, hats, and more. The latest WC
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: merch is now available. Support and rep your favorite college
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: football show today. Just visit Winnie Cures Everything dot com,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: a slash a store. If you can't watch the show live,
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: no problem. Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: and never miss an episode. Of course, make sure that
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: you leave a five star review, and don't forget it's
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: available everywhere you give a podcast. All Right, the scheduling
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: dynamics where the ACC race could basically get decided before
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: before some of these teams even play each other. Right,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: The hardest conference schedule in our model belongs to Boston College.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: Florida State is second, Stanford, number three, Forest FOD, North
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: Carolina five. I don't have a lot of faith in
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: any of those teams being able to do much this season.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: As far as the rest of the top ten toughest draws,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Clemson, and Syracuse round out
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: the ten toughest draws. There. The easiest ACC schedule belongs
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: to n C State SMU A second, Miami third, Louisville fourth,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Virginia fifth. Callin Duke round this thing out at number six,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: number seven. The gap is a massive part of the
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: championship conversation, right. NC State avoids Miami, Clemson, SMU, and
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. SMU avoids Miami and Clemson, and they get
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the bottom five projective finishers. Miami avoids SMU and Louisville.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Louisville draws seven of the bottom ten teams in the conference.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Virginia or at least projected bottom ten. Virginia avoids Miami, Clemson,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: and Louisville, and then you got teams like Florida State.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: They're playing the projected top four teams, six of the
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: top eight, and Alabama and Florida. That's not even it's
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: not even the same sport that those two schedules are playing, right.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Miami's first three ACC games are all on the road,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: so they got to settle in that new offensive line
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: and hurry. The trip to Clemson on October third is
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: the first real league test. The road game at Notre
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Dame on November seventh is the biggest national game on
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: the whole schedule, but Miami finishes with a run of
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: favorable home games. They should be favored nearly every week
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: SAMs Notre Dame SMU season might turn on the early
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: road tests that they got. Yes, their schedule is easy,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: but they got to play at Florida State in week
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: one and at Louisville and week three. I mean that's
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the first big ACC game of the year is probably
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: that Florida State SMU one in Week one, but the
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: one between projected top three teams that's on September nineteen.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: It's the first big game of the year between two
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: non Miami contenders. You win that when an SMU becomes
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: the clear favorite of the second title game spot you
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: lose it or you lose it, and then Louisville's got
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: the head to head edge really in a race that
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: could get crowded pretty quickly. Louisville doesn't start off easy,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: like they play Ole Miss in Nashville, but they're projected
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: to be favored in every game after that. They've still
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: got eight games expected to finish within one score. It's
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: a team that can absolutely contend, but they are living
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: under constant pressure the whole way with an unproven quarterback.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Clemson opens at LSU that hosts Miami on October third.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: That's a game that could totally flip the perception of
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: this team. But you beat Miami and Clemson is instantly
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: a serious title threat. You lose it decisively, and it
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: feels like that gap between Miami and everybody else just
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: gets more obvious. Virginia Tech, they don't see a projected
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: top thirty opponent until October twenty fourth at Clemson, which
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: buys Franklin like real time. We talked about that, but
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: we did talk about how the closing stretch is pretty difficult.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Right trips to Miami to SMU still in the docket.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Virginia schedule friendly overall, but they're three toughest conference games.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Florida State, SMU, and Virginia Tech. Those are all on
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: the road. Florida State goes to Alabama, Louisville, and Miami.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: They host Florida. They face Clemson late in October. It's
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: a schedule that could sink even a good team, let
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: alone Wonder that is replacing an entire offensive line and
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: their offensive coordinator and so forth and so on. Right,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: there's there's some fun land mines scattered around this conference.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: In c State and Virginia play in Week zero. Clemson
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: opens at LSU, Louisville, Ole Miss, and Nashville. We talked
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: about that. Pitt goes to Virginia Tech. Duke goes to Virginia.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: That's an ACC championship game. Duke visits Miami, right mensa
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: against his old team. SMU has to go to Notre Dame.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Florida plays at Florida State. South Carolina goes to Clemson.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech closes against Georgia. These are these are all
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: interesting fun games. The ACC has got one clear favorite.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: But the way that these schedules are shaping up, like
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: every single contender has a different path and and really
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: just a different set of problems. All Right, I'm not
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: gonna waste time with this championship race. Uh My projected
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: ACC championship game is going to be Miami against SMU.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Miami the obvious side here, best roster, best quarterback, highest
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: projected conference win total, schedule that avoids both Louisville and SMU.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: They've already proven they can handle postseason football. SMU's path
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: is the cleaner pick for the second spot because of
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Jennings and that offensive line. They avoid Miami and Clemson,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: they draw the five lowest projected teams in the league.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: They're probably gonna be favored in ten games, and that
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: really tough game at Notre Dame does not count in
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: the conference schedule. Louisville might addge SMU on a neutral field,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: but the quarterback uncertainly makes them a lot harder to project.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: And that's why Louisville is my first team out. But
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: and the other part of this is that Louisville is
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: good for upsets. Someone I like, you could absolutely see
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: them beating SMU and Brom's bunch somehow finds a way
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: to lose games that they absolutely should not. And I
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: don't know where on the schedule it would show up,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: but I mean Stanford recently like lost a pit like
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: just stuff that should not be happening with them, especially
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: if they were a good enough team to beat a
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: team like Miami. But they're good for upsets, you know.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: So I don't trust them to get to the ACC
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: title game, but they could certainly play a hand in
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: seeing who gets there. Clemson is another alternative here. Talent
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: schedule are certainly there. Beating Miami at home that would
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: be the one result that flipped the entire race. But
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: my call is gonna be Miami against SMU. I've got
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: Miami winning the whole thing for the first time under
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: well ever but also under crystal Ball. But Minsa is
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: the best quarterback in this league. And then you got
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: those playmakers, right Tony bark At the running backs all that,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: He's got an elite set of weapons. Secondary gonna be
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: one of the best in the country. And Miami simply
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: got more replacement talent than anybody else here. The concerns
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: in this conference a pretty real though, right, you know,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: four new offensive line starters, the front seven losses like
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Miami's habit of dropping games as a heavy favorite Israel,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: but it's still the most complete team in the conference. Like,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: I've got like medium to high confidence that they're gonna
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: win this much less confidence than I would Actually, I
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want to bet that price. How's that? Like? I
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want to bet that price for Miami. And since
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: we're already talking betting and marketing angles or market angles,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: let's talk money. Let's talk money. Miami is who I
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: expect to win the ACC. Miami at minus one thirty
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: six is not a future that I want to buy now.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: I don't think those two things are contradictory, right, Like
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: I like the team, I don't like the number at
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty six. They've got to avoid the kind
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: of regular season slip up that has burned this program before.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: And they've still got to rebuild that offensive line, and
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: they've got to replace some major front seven production. I
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: think the talent is there to do it. Like, Miami
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: can win the conference and still be a bad preseason
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: bet because the payout does not cover the risk. Right
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: when total is it ten and a half. It's priced
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: around minus one ten either way, I'd pass on that.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: Like Miami could easily go eleven to one. You wouldn't
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: expect them to win at Notre Dame this year, but
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: the line transitioned the Clemson road trip, Like, there's enough
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: uncertainty that I don't need to force a side with this.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: Virginia is another one that looks expensive relative to what
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: they've replaced. Right, they won eleven games last year. Only
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: sixteen of the forty players who log two hundred plus
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: snaps are back. You've got another thirty transfers or whatever
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: it is they have to gell immediately. The schedule is excellent.
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: That kind of keeps me off of the under. But
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: I don't I couldn't justify betting over seven and a
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: half off of last season of results when this roster
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: is not last seasons and the juice on that thing.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, minus one fifty, that's crazy, crazy town. Wake
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Forest looks like a regression candidate to me. I think
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: it's pretty much everybody. They went four and one and
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: one score games. They got to nine wins with an
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: offense that was not efficient at all. Now you've got
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: four offensive line starters, The travel goods tough for the
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: conference schedule steps up. The defense is not going to
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: be as good. They lost some key pieces. The main
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: total is five and a half minus one twenty five
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: of the over, which is tight. The more interesting angle
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: might be under six and a half alternate it protects
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: you even if Wake stays respectable. While they drop from
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: like nine wins down to six, still gonna be juiced
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: pretty high at six and a half. But I mean,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: I don't see any world where they get to seven wins.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Could they get to six? Yeah, that's why this thing's
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: priced at five and a half. But if you can
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: get a fine like if you can get a good
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: number for six and a half for Wake Forest, like
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: I like that or quite a bit. Cal over six
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: and a half plus one twenty is a number that
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: I can't. I cannot get there, right. JKS is excellent,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: but first year head coach and entirely new staff, major
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: turnover at skill positions and on defense, an offensive line,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: the stilly question mark, multiple cross country road trips. They
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: don't have a buy until November seventh. A step on
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: a duck. His model gives Cal only one FBS game
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: all year where they've got a field goal advantage or more.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: That's not a team that I'm betting to get to
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: seven wins. So Cal under six and a half is
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be my favorite under on the whole board,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: especially considering you can get it at minus one twenty
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: in a couple of books. The best conference future on
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: the board is SMU at plus seven hundred. This team
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: is not as talented as my but the price is
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: dramatically better, especially for that schedule. Jennings is one of
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: the more experienced quarterbacks in the league. SMU has the
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: best offensive line. They avoid both Miami and Clemson, like
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: they can reach Charlotte without ever having to beat the
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: best team in the conference during the regular season. Like
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: that's what I'm looking for out of a conference future.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: I want a capable team with a proven quarterback, a
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: really friendly schedule, and a path that doesn't require beating
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: really good teams. SMU checks every single box. There. The
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: my favorite true long shot because SMU, I mean, let's
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: let's be honest, that is not a real long shot.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: N C State plus twenty five hundred, which is this
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: is purely a quarterback and schedule bet Bailey gives them
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: high end play. They avoid a ton of the really
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: good team teams. They draw six of the bottom seven
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: projected teams in the league. Do I think they're the
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: second best team in the ACC. Absolutely not. Do I
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: think they have a realistic path to get to their
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: second championship or to the to the second championship game spot.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Absolutely At plus twenty five hundred, that is more than
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: enough to make this at least interesting. Favorite overs Syracuse
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: over four and a half plus one oh five. Yeah,
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Angelly is expected back, quarterback depth is better, Carris should
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: improve the defense. Syracuse plays four of the bottom six
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: projected teams in the league. The turnover and statistical indicators
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: at Phil Steele both point toward positive regression here. This
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: team doesn't need to be great. They just got to
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: get to five wins, and I think they can get there.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: I don't think they were as I think this team
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: was going to be pretty decent last year if Angel
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: had not gotten hurt and it plus I mean, this
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: is plus money. It's one of the cleaner bets on
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: the whole board. So I feel good about that one.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech over six and a half. That's another one
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: I like I'm not a big fan of laying minus
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: one fifty or more. Franklin raises the floor. There the
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: fourth nationally returning production. I brought that up. Grunkelemeier, you
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: know knows this all the stuff, right. They got a
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: great one runway to start the season. The road trips
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: to Clemson, Miami and SMU kind of capped that championship ceiling,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: but Virginia Tech could lose all three of those, they
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: could still get the seven wins pretty easily. There is
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: an over seven and a half at plus one seventy
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: if you want a little more juice, I mean, it's
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: more aggressive, but the core opinion here is that this
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: team makes a Bowl game and has a real shot
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: at finishing above five hundred. So yeah, the over not
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: bad n C State. When I've bet over six and
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: a half, it's probably the safest schedule based win total
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: on the board. Conceptually the price is steep, but if
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: you can still find those the over, you know, the
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: over six and a half, I feel it's just simple.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: But also I don't necessarily mind the over seven and
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: a half that you can find at most places now.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: It's plus one twenty ish, So if you're willing to
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: stomach some more variants there. They would need eight wins
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: to catch that one, But between Bailey and the easiest
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: schedule in the conference, I think that's pretty realistic. SMU
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: over eight and a half at minus one twenty five,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: that's playable, right. The schedule sets up a pretty direct
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: path to nine or ten wins. But the only variant
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: you got to deal with is Jennings health in that
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: defensive line rebuild. You know, I think this is a
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: notch behind Syracuse and the two schedule based overs for me,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: but still an interesting one to keep track of. Clemson
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: over seven and a half at minus one thirty, that's
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: a low confidence play. It's talent, it's schedule, and it's
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: not like so I'm not suddenly trusting Dabo and Chad
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: Morris who hadn't coached in football in five years. I don't.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: But Clemson could be favored in nine games they get
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Miami at home. They simply have more raw talent than
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: most of this league. Like I'd probably keep the stake
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: small because I think another seven well getting to eight wins.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's crazy for Clemson based on the
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: talent profile that they've got I'd pass on Louisville over
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: seven and a half at minus one eighty. I felt
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: really good about it earlier this offseason, but the more
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: you look at schedules, the more you look at everything
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: about this Louisville team, you know, minus one eighty is
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: too expensive for a team with an unproven quarterback and
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: you know the offensive line turnover. I'd probably pass on
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Duke at five and a half. Like, yeah, do I
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: trust Diaz? Yeah? Absolutely, But I mean the personnel losses
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: create way too much noise for me this year. I'd
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: probably pass on Boston College at three and a half.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: That number already accounts for the brutal schedule. I would
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: pass on Stanford at three and a half two, although
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: I'd slightly lean toward the over because four wins is
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: not an impossible target for them. Let me summarize this.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Let me give you a quick hitter. SMU plus seven
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: hundred is my best conference future. N C State plus
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: twenty five hundred is the best long shot. Syracuse over
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: four and a half at plus money. That's my favorite
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: win total over Cal under six and a half is
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: my favorite under. Also like Virginia Tech over six and
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: a half. NC State over six and a half and
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: then Wake Forest a total win all total under six
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: and a half wins. Yeah, I think that's the regression
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: angle to watch there. All right, So final predictions here.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: My surprise team is SMU, which calling a plus seven
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: hundred conference contender of surprise does sound odd, but I
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: think the surprise would be SMU actually winning the ACC
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: and getting back to the playoff while all of the
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: attention stays fixed on Miami. Right, they got the quarterback,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: they got the offensive line, They avoid Miami and Clemson.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: You already know who they draw as far as their schedule.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Like for SMU to hit that ceiling, Jennings has got
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: to stay healthy, a real lead running back has got
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: to emerge. Their defensive line transfers have got to hold up,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: and that co coordinator set up has got to run smoothly.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: If all that happens, SMU goes ten to two, they
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: win the a SEC championship game, they get a playoff. Berth.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: My disappointment team is going to be Wake Forest. They
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: are in real credit for nine wins last year, but
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: you know they went four to one and one score games.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: That's hard to repeat. You know, we talked about the
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: offensive line. The explosive play production could could potentially dip
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: this year, and the schedule is way tougher and the
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: travel gets heavier. Defense is still probably gonna be eyed,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: but I think the floor here is like another four
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: and eight, or they might be able to get to
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: five and seven. I don't see a bowl game there.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Virginia is the other regression candidate. Schedule is still really good.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: It'll keep them from collapsing, but repeating eleven wins with
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: another rebuilt roster, I mean that is a real long shot.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: The most improved team should be Virginia Tech. I think
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: Franklin gives them the best combination of coaching, upgrade, returning production,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: recruiting momentum in this entire conference. Syracuse might produce the
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: biggest jump relative to where the market has them. North
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: Carolina is going to be interesting offensively, certainly should be
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: a little more efficient under Petrino, although the offensive line
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: losses are going to make that pretty hard to see
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: early on. I would think, especially with that early schedule,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: Florida State con genuinely get better as a team without
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: the win total showing much for it. Like that schedule
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: is ridiculous and that brings us back to the main point.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: The top of the league is really simple. Miami is
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: the best team. They've got the best quarterback, they've got
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: the most talented roster. Miami should win the conference. Everything
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: below that is negotiable, right. SMU's the quarterback and schedule contender.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: Louisville is the running game and consistency contender, which maybe
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: more coaching consistency than roster, but still Clinton talent. You know,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: redemption contender because everybody has just written that team off.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. They've got the coaching upgrade, NC State schedule value,
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: Virginia portal continuity experiment. Duke is the defending champion, just
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: trying to survive a completely gutted offense. Here. It might
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: not be the deepest championship race in college football, but
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: it might be the strangest one. Right, Miami does give
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: the ACC a legit shot at a national title, and
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: the other sixteen teams give us a legitimate reason to
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: argue about tie breakers for all season long. Like Miami
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: is the best team in the ACC, the entertainment is
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: gonna be figuring out which of the other sixteen is
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: crazy enough to actually meet him in Charlotte. Right. That
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: is gonna wrap things up for the ACC. I appreciate
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: all of you for being here, for watching the show
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: each and every week. We are getting into July and August.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: Things are about to pick up. We still have the
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Big twelve that we're going to do next week. As
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: you were watching this, I am on the beach. Hey,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: you too, hey, And I'm having a blast with my kids.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be great. It's gonna be a wonderful time.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: I recorded this three days before. So if there's any
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: news or anything that breaks in the a sec between
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: now and then that has to do with this season,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: not some lawsuit or whatever the other message all the
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: political crap, right, I don't care. We're almost a football season.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Don't get me unfocused on the games. That's all I'm asking.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Do me a favor, like the video, Subscribe to the channel,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: our channels, we've got multiple now, but knock all that
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: stuff out. I would certainly appreciate it. Probably could have
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: switched back over to this at some point to wrap
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: this thing up, but either way, you guys are fantastic.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Do me a favor. Jump in the comments, tell me
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: what I'm wrong about here, y'all know I get real opinionated,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: but I don't mind having you guys come in and
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: talk to me and tell me what you believe should
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: be the right answers for this conference. Tell me who
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: you betting on. That's what I would like to know.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: All right. With that said, we're gonna get out of here. Oh,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast. Leave a nice five star review.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: I'd appreciate that. Let's do this thing. Take care of yourself,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: take care of each other. God bless college football, and
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this season. Thanks for
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: follow at Gary WCE on x, and check out the
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: web store