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Transcript
- Lucas: So there's this number that's been bouncing around my brain for the last few days: coworking desk bookings in Manhattan are up thirty-four percent year-over-year. Not total memberships, not signed contracts — actual daily desk bookings. Luna: That's a very specific metric. What's the source? Lucas: It's from one of the big flexible-office operators — think WeWork, Industrious, that world. They aggregate anonymized usage data across their buildings. And that thirty-four percent jump is interesting because it's happening while traditional office lease renewals in the same zip codes are basically flat. Luna: So the data is telling us something different from what the headline office-vacancy numbers show? Lucas: Exactly. The vacancy rate in Manhattan is still hovering around eighteen percent — down a bit from the peak, but not dramatically. But the raw usage of flexible space is climbing fast. And I think the reason is that companies are making a very deliberate shift. They're not signing five-year leases for fifteen thousand square feet anymore. They're buying monthly memberships for fifty desks and booking them daily based on who actually shows up. Luna: Which turns desk booking data into a leading indicator for commercial real estate demand. If bookings are up, it means more people are actually coming in — not just that a lease was signed. Lucas: Right. And the operators see this in real time. So they can tell you, 'Hey, on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, our buildings in Midtown are at eighty-five percent capacity. Thursdays are around seventy. Mondays and Fridays are at forty.' That kind of granularity is gold for a CFO trying to decide whether to renew a lease or go fully flexible. Luna: It also changes the conversation with landlords. If I'm a building owner and I see that the coworking operator down the street is packed on Tuesdays, I'm going to start thinking about offering my own flexible space — not just traditional long-term leases. Lucas: And that's exactly what's happening. There's a term for it — 'built to suit flex.' Some landlords are carving out floors in their own buildings and operating them as coworking spaces, either on their own or through a management deal with an operator. They're keeping the tenants in the building but giving them an out if they need to shrink. Luna: So the coworking data is essentially predicting that the traditional lease is going to become less common, at least for the portion of the workforce that's hybrid. Lucas: Yeah. And one of the most telling data points I've seen is from a report by a real estate analytics firm — they looked at the correlation between coworking occupancy and subsequent office lease signings in the same submarket. The correlation is positive and about six months ahead. So when coworking bookings go up, lease activity follows half a year later. Luna: That's a really useful signal for anyone who invests in commercial real estate or works in corporate real estate. Lucas: Absolutely. And it's not just Manhattan. Same pattern in San Francisco, London, Sydney. The coworking operators are publishing more of this data now, partially because they want to attract corporate clients, but also because it helps them negotiate with landlords. They can say, 'Look, we bring the bodies. Your building should partner with us.' Luna: I've also noticed that some of these operators are starting to offer 'hybrid memberships' — where an employee can use any of their locations in a city. So you might have a desk in Midtown on Tuesday, but in SoHo on Thursday. That changes the demand pattern across neighborhoods. Lucas: It does. And it makes the data even more interesting, because now it's not just about one building — it's about a network. The operator can see which neighborhoods are gaining popularity and adjust pricing accordingly. If the Financial District is hot on Wednesdays, they might raise the day-pass price there. It's dynamic pricing for office space. Luna: Which is something traditional landlords can't really do. They're locked into lease terms for years. Lucas: Exactly. And I think that's the real story here. Coworking data isn't just a curiosity — it's becoming a strategic asset. If you're a corporate real estate executive, you should be watching these numbers. They tell you where your employees actually want to work, and they give you leverage when you're negotiating your next lease. Luna: I'm curious about the flip side though — does this data also predict when companies are pulling back? Like, if bookings drop, does that signal a coming downturn in office demand? Lucas: It should, theoretically. But so far the trend has been steadily upward since the remote-work shock of 2020. The dip in 2022 was mostly about companies sorting out their hybrid policies, not a fundamental shift. And the data we're seeing now suggests that the hybrid model is settling into a new normal — not full return to office, but definitely more in-person than the trough. Luna: So the coworking data is essentially the canary in the coal mine for the future of the office. Lucas: It is. And it's a canary that tweets in real time. One thing I'd add — the operators are also starting to layer in amenities data. They track which coffee machines are used most, which phone booths are booked, which floors have the most foot traffic. That helps them design better spaces and gives them more ammunition to pitch to landlords. Luna: If today's conversation gave you something useful — a new angle on real estate, a data point you didn't have — the way these episodes stay ad-free and independent is through listener support. You can find us at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Lucas: Yeah, that's right. No sponsors, no banners — just people who find value in the show and want to keep it going. It really helps us dig into these kinds of specific topics. Luna: So back to the amenities data — how detailed does it get? Lucas: Pretty granular. I've seen a report from one operator that broke down which floors in a twenty-story building had the most usage per square foot. The top floor, which had the best natural light and a terrace, had almost double the booking rate of the ground floor. So now when they design a new space, they put the most desirable amenities on the floors that get the most traffic — it's a feedback loop. Luna: That kind of data is incredibly valuable for architects and interior designers as well. Lucas: For sure. And it's starting to influence how new office buildings are designed. Developers are including more flexible spaces from the ground up — more phone booths, more collaboration zones, fewer private offices. Because the data says that's what people actually use. Luna: So the coworking data is essentially predicting not just where offices will be, but what they'll look like. Lucas: Exactly. And I think that's the biggest takeaway. The future of office real estate isn't going to be decided by CEOs declaring 'everyone back to the office.' It's going to be decided by the aggregate of millions of daily booking decisions, captured and analyzed by the companies that run flexible space. Those decisions are already pointing toward a world where the office is smaller, more flexible, and more data-driven than ever before. Luna: Interesting. Now I'm going to start watching those occupancy numbers every month. Lucas: Same here. It's one of the most underrated leading indicators in the entire economy.