Why a 65% Win Rate Isn't Good Enough in the Worst Buyer's Market in Decades | Ep 300

Serious AI with Chris Duff · Mar 11, 2026 · 15m

In this episode, a ~$70,000 infill lot near a major Texas metro gets evaluated and ultimately passed on despite a 60-70% probability of a $20,000 net cash outcome. County-level data from Reventure reveals a 238% inventory surge since 2022, days on market pushing 90-101 days, and a projected 6.3% price decline over the next year. The macro case for patience overrides the surface-level deal math.

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