Latest / Crosstabs / Opening Panera’s Box

Transcript

Opening Panera’s Box · Crosstabs

• 0:05
  [music]
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: You do love the Senate,
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: but you know, you do work in the House, so you need to now love the House.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: Listen, the Democrats are the opposition, the Senate's the enemy, Bryan.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: That's what we know.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: You guys kill all of our stuff.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to kill yours.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: And frankly, this is my hot take.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: And you can tell me if you disagree,
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Bryan, and we'll see where the dust settles at the end of this whole thing.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: But the Senate is more liberal than the House, I think, actually.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's more extreme, especially with Munoz, Mirna Munoz winning that primary.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And then depending on the rest.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: Doesn't that make it her equal with her sister?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, one Senate seat shifting is bigger than two house seats.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: It is the same as two house seats shifting, right?
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll see what the DSA, if they caucus, all this stuff.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of questions left unanswered.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: But my hot take is,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: if you're a lobbyist and you're on the business side of things and you want
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: to kill something, your options in the Senate are slim to nothing.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: You're looking at the House now as your opportunity to water stuff and kill stuff.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's what I think.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, as it stands right now, probably.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think Solomon was a,
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: what helped,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: with some stuff,
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: especially, you know, in climate and some of those areas where she was, right?
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Like on those committees.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, I think there'll be, there'll definitely be some changes.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think what we're seeing in the Senate might even be,
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_01: or in the House,
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: is I really feel like there's kind of like,
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: Factions developing where you have the DSA,
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know, we're just going to go all in on the socialist mentality.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have,
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: then you kind of had your run of the mill Democrats,
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: like you're,
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: you know, they're big into climate change and they like that sort of stuff.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: They're an environmentalist Democrat,
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: but they don't really get into the craziness of the DSA side of stuff.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: Like let's, let's rechange all government.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have the pro-business Democrats,
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: which, Reagan, that is like, I think, the dinosaurs at this point.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: There's only a few left.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: And they focus on spending.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: They talk about those sort of things, and they're not really focused on any of the...
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: I don't want to call them really fringe issues,
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: but they're just like,
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: this job is legislating, it's budget writing, it's boring kind of stuff, right?
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: But those people, I think, are further, further disappearing.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and I think, again, the results determine this.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: I was talking with somebody earlier today and I just said the election results and
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: a shift of one or two seats in either chamber will tell you what kind of
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: a session we'll have and we'll have very different sessions depending
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: on those outcomes.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: If it's a different session,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: if Dems pick up seats versus if Republicans and Dems hold exactly where they're at.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: And it's even more different if ours pick up seats.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: OK, so and I'm not I'm not saying all those scenarios are equally likely.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying that if you get one of those ones,
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: you're having a totally different session than if you get a different scenario.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: And the stuff you see will be very different in terms of bills that come out
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: of committee and stuff that gets voted.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: So all that's different.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: But my hot take still,
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: and I heard you say Reagan is right,
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: that the House is more exciting and the place to be,
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: and the Senate is going to be the bastion of liberalism here for a bit.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh-oh, that's Nigel Jack was calling.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: I'm always excited to answer, but nervous at the same time when Nigel calls.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the key is always let it go to voicemail,
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: see if they leave a voicemail saying, This is when I train candidates.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: Don't answer the phone when a journalist first calls.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: Give it a second.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Have a thought about what you're going to say, what it might be about, then call them back.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: I like to answer when he calls,
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: but I think he called the senator earlier,
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: so I think he's working on a story, but my boss is indisposed at a conference, so...
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's his conference at Panera, like where I am right now.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm in my car.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: My favorite title of all the podcasts we've ever done is Consultants
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: in Cars Getting Coffee because I love comedians in cars getting coffee.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: The show with, and now I'm forgetting his name, literally just Seinfeld, Jerry Seinfeld.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: And so today it's Reagan in his car at Panera.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: I've been working at Panera for the good taxpayers of Oregon.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, cause sometimes working at your house, it gets distracting.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so I'm trying to, you know, be out and about and get things accomplished.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: So sitting at Panera, got my, my lunch, my, a pick two and a soda.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: Um, got a lot done.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: What was the soda?
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: Pepsi.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: They don't have Coke.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: So diet Pepsi.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Rude.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Diet Pepsi.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: I'm surprised you wouldn't go somewhere just because they literally would have Coke over Pepsi.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: I should.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'm trying out Panera.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: This is new.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: So I may try other places.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: But Panera is actually a pretty good place to sit with your laptop and work.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: Not every other.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: There's not a ton of options in Albany.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: I got to start with that.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: Panera is five minutes from my house.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: So very convenient.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: But there's not a ton of options.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: More options there than Lebanon.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: My win today is I stopped by the grocery store real quick,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: and I went in there, had to get a couple things.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Vicki's over in your neck of the woods doing fundraising and stuff like that.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: And we're empty nesters, so I have to take care of myself, which is very difficult.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: And I think Vicki's starting to mother me again because she's got no kids in
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: the house to mother.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: I'm getting used to having her around.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: But, Reagan, I was super, super excited.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: Eberhard's had their eggnog out.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: I was fired up.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: Like, earliest ever,
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: grab me a little thing,
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: a little quart of eggnog, because eggnog in your coffee is the best.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Is it not pronounced Eberhard's?
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, isn't that what I said?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Eberhard's?
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: You said Eberhard's.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Eh, Eberhard's, Eberhard's.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: Eh, potato, potato.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, I want to hear people's opinions.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think eggnog, it makes sense to me.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's like a creamer, right?
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's just like a really, really thick creamer.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that that makes a lot of sense to me.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: Just a little bit.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: No need a whole bunch.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: Just a little bit.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: I like the eggnog lattes.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: Just some eggnog in the cup.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: I was going to say,
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: and even just pouring to drink a cup of eggnog, I have to water it down with milk.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: I can't do that stuff.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's too intense for me.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: But I know there are people that like it.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: So shout out if you're an eggnog drinker.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, big episode.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to deal with the Senate.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, Senate,
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: we're going to do our...
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: We'll do the Senate first, and then we'll do the House sometime later this week.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: And the House might be a couple of episodes, I'm going to be perfectly honest.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: We might have to do that in two parts.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: because there's some interesting races in there that I think we're going to have
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: to pick apart a little bit.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: So, the Senate's pretty cutthroat, or...
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: Cut and dry.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: Cutthroat probably didn't work.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's fairly cutthroat, so we'll see what happens.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: But it really comes down to two races at the end of the day.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: The Republicans will either have 13, 12, or 11.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: I
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty much.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: I don't even know if it makes sense to talk about the Patterson race or the Meek race.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think those we've pretty much all just written off as done with.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: Good candidates, Angela Plowhead and Michelle Stroh, both really good Republican candidates.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: They are working really hard and Very,
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: very tough environment right now to be a Republican in Oregon.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: And except unless you're Christine Drazen,
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: because even she still seems to be doing well because Kotech is her negatives are
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: so bad.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: Christine's in the race from all the polling I'm seeing.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: She's she's it's going to be a tighter one.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: And so Kotech is the only one bucking the Trump train trend.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: She's doing she's doing a bang up job, as they say.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we'll see what happens.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: But in the Senate,
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: you have Tracy Kramer running for Kim Thatcher's old seat,
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: which is basically Kaiser, you know, all the way up through Woodburn, basically.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, that's the first one.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think there?
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think that Kramer obviously starts with the advantage here.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: You have a seat that's been historically Republican,
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: but you've got to know and think about the fact that it is trending Democrat.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's gotten less and less red, and part of that is due to redistricting, right?
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think it lost some of those more red rural pieces as they tried to pack those
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: into places like Girard and other districts, right?
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: And then you got to look at the spending.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I didn't want to spend the time on Orstar.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I just went to Money Watch, the OR Money Watch tool from PacWest.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's pretty close to up to date.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to go with it.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: So Kramer's raised almost 900 and spent 500, basically.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: And then you roll down to Stapleton and she's raised about 354 and spent about 308.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: And they both have...
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: Some cash on hand, but Stapleton's only got 75 and Tracy's got 400.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: So to me on the spending side of things,
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats appear to be interested but not yet serious is what I'm seeing
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: in those numbers.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: But there is plenty of time for them to pump more money and more manpower into
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: that district if they think it starts to get competitive,
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: if the polls in October or the polling that they may have already just done
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: But right now, I would give the advantage to Kramer.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: And then just if it's really,
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: really close,
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'd say it's likely that the detrending environment is to blame for it being
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: as close as it is.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, on the money,
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: I say you're right,
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: but you missed one very,
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: very huge difference between the two if you looked inside the numbers.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: Bring Balance just wrote her a check for $400,000.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: So the reality was is they've raised up until three days ago,
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: they've raised about the same amount of money.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I would just because Bring Balance came in and dropped,
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: they literally dropped a $400,000 check on September 25th.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the difference there.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: That tells me two things.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: That tells me she's in trouble.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_01: The drop $400,000 on a race like that tells me that's a problem.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_01: And they're not thinking that she's got an easy path.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: And things are rocky out there.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, there's no doubt about it.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: This seat goes into the Woodburn area,
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: the house district that Tracy won back in 22 and then lost by 150 votes.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Virginia stable and kind of got trounced by Mannix in 24 years.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and so,
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: but she's got,
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_01: she's, and I, I would, I would assume Tracy does, does okay in her house district.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: Like you could probably, the people who voted for the last two election cycles, right?
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: So she'll do okay there and staple in kind of basis maybe in that Kaiser,
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: you know, Northeast Salem thing.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: So I think this one's going to be a turnout battle.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think the edge and the environment goes Stapleton's way just
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: because people are just pretty pissed at President Trump.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: But I think if done correctly,
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: the motivation of the normal people that would get out and vote,
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think they vote Tracy's way if they get out and vote.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I think it's really going to take a large get out the vote effort.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: You spend any time on Stapleton's Instagram and you figure out how weird she is real quick.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, she has the weirdest videos of any candidate I've ever seen.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's just weird stuff.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: So go ahead and watch if you've got some time.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's weird.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see what happens here.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_01: I am rooting for Tracy.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_01: I'd do whatever I could to help her win.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think Stapleton hurts your,
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: it probably hurts my argument and helps your argument that
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: the Senate is more liberal.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_01: That's for sure.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: You lose a Senate seat, man, then that's four years.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: So you can kind of be a little more crazy and not worry about it in a Senate seat.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: So that makes things a little bit harder for us.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: And you're right, that would really tip the scales a little further to the left.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: And that's pretty nuts.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think the interesting thing is, is that Democrats, and here's the question.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: If they go to 19,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: we're going to talk about the next race,
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: which I think leaves it definitely way up in the air.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Let's say Dems get to 19.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: They need 20 to have a quorum-proof majority, i.e.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: anytime they call a session, everyone shows up or enough people to show up to do business.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: That only requires them to get one Republican.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: In the past walkouts, there's been at least one Republican who's always been there.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: And and that guy's still in the state Senate at this point.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: If he moves to the U.S. Senate, maybe it's a different conversation.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: But but for now, we're anticipating David Brock Smith goes back to the state Senate.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: So you could look at it and say there's the potential for 19 to be
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: a quorum proof majority for Democrats as well.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that takes the walkout completely off the table in an environment
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: where your Senate is already more left.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: And so that would be.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's something to watch as well.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: If they have a quorum-proof majority,
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: what can they run versus what they couldn't run if there's the threat of a walkout?
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's true.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think you get to a certain end with 19.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, now they're fighting their own party, which isn't good.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: How do they go crazy bills, the crazier bills, right?
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_01: So that becomes a problem for us.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I might have a pause.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: The boss is calling.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, everybody.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: Quick break and a quick pitch for our good friend Spencer Pratt coming to Oregon.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: The guy that upended the L.A.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: mayor's race down there and really thrust himself
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: into national conversations is going to be coming to Oregon to tell us how
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: to fight socialism.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: We look forward to having them here on October 14th,
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: 5 to 7 p.m., kind of in the Portland metro area, the Fight Socialism Rally.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: So go to fightsocialismoregon.com to sign up for free tickets.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: It's free, but only about 500 people can go.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_01: So you better go there now and sign up because they're going fast.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Fightsocialismoregon.com During that break,
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: Reagan took a call from his boss, who is not calling me, so she must be busy today.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: Which is good.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: For once, it's nice to rank above you, Bryan.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: Just every once in a while.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: Just from 8 to 5, Reagan.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: There
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: you go.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's fine with me.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: I want you to deal with everything before and after that anyway.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: All right,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: so the elusive Southern Oregon Senate seat that has been eluding Republicans ever
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: since we had it for a brief period of time back in the mid-2010s when we went in
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: in 14 and then he quit in 16.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: Is that how that worked, I think?
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: It was a two-year term to fill in for the passing of Doc Bates, if I recall.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: And so now we have Brad Hicks,
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: Republican,
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: longtime Medford Chamber Director,
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: running against Denise Krause, who ran a very crowded campaign.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: Democratic primary and came out the victor in that primary and gets the chance
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: to run against Brad Hicks.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: I was, while you were on that call,
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: I took time to look at the numbers since you did the numbers on the last one.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: Hicks has raised a whopping $1.3 million with $94,000 on hand as of now.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_01: Denise Krause, $422,000 with $120,000 on hand.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: Again, of the $1.3 million,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: and Brad's done a pretty good job raising local money,
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: but $740,000 came from Bring Balance to Sale.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: So talk about a huge amount of money going all in on that race.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: The one thing I saw, Reagan,
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: before I get to your thoughts on it,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: because you know Medford pretty well, he spent some time down there.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: I was looking in the details.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: So there was a poll done on...
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: September 26th, which, well, they reported it on September 26th.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: Who knows when it was actually done,
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_01: but it would have to have been within seven days of that because,
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: of course, I'm sure they're following compliance.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: On the same day, it was also reported a $250,000 contribution from Bing Bring Balance to Salem.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if those things are coincidences.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: I always find that interesting.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you wait because you feel pretty good about a race or
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: if they were just planning on giving.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think for the most part, if I,
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: knowing how Greg works,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: he tends to wait until the end of September,
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: like in 24,
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: he did it to kind of came in where he was going to come in with his money
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: and drops his check.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: And then, you know, says good luck and moves on.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: So, um, I would assume that was what was the scenario here and maybe with Tracy Kramer as well.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: So anyways, what's your thoughts?
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: You know a lot about Medford.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: Medford's a tough district because you also have Ashland and that Ashland,
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: as you pointed out before, really doesn't change.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: And we've we've successfully run one Republican from Ashland, Alan DeBoer, and won that seat.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: We've we've run a Republican from Ashland and barely lost that seat talking
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: about Dave Daughter back in 2010.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: And so what we haven't done successfully is had a candidate from Medford win this race.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_00: And I think.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: We talked about the dynamics before about the third party candidate, I believe.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: And and I think that that can break two ways because
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: the third party independent candidate is a liberal candidate that used to serve on
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_00: on city council.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: But he's from Medford.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: And so if people if it's sucking up Democratic votes, Then Brad doesn't care.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: It works great for him.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to totally work to his advantage.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_00: If it's sucking up Medford votes that are swing or potentially should be his votes
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: because he's he's based in Medford,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: been Medford Jackson Chamber president,
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: worked with Walden, among other things in his in his long career.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: That's a problem.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: And because he's going to need every one of those Medford votes.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: You also know that that.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: It makes sense that Walden's investing in this district.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: He's invested in it before, come very close before with Sparacino a few years ago.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: And that was a cycle where,
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know that it's a secret,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: but there was attempts to recruit Hicks at that time,
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: and he didn't feel like it was the right time for him to run.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: Now it is.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: And he's definitely got the money.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so if he's doing everything else, I would feel good about this race in any other year.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_00: This is the year that I'm actually a little worried about it.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: I think if Brad runs four years ago, it's not even a question.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's over.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think he wins.
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_00: Golden was uniquely unpopular in that moment.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: Now, he's not running again, so the Democrats don't have his name ID.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: There's concern about big money down there that's outside money, right?
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: And Brad,
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: will do a good job defusing all of that because he's raised plenty of local money.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not like...
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: Salem's trying to buy the seat, right?
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: Brad has the support on the money side of things.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_01: And if you sort, I mean, this is the hilarious thing, Bryan.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you go and you sort this, Brad Hicks has raised twice as much money as Rob Wagner has.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that's funny.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's the Senate president.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: And he's getting outraised by a swing seat.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: And I just thought that was funny.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: And the next highest...
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on, let's sort again here because I clicked the
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: button on
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: exit.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: Next highest is Kramer, then Wagner.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: So it goes Hicks, Kramer, Wagner, Starr, Miriam Munoz.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: So the Dems are getting badly outspent right now.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: But...
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: In the governor's race, Drazen is reporting everything up to the minute.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: Kotech is holding back until the last day to file those things to show more money.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_00: And two different strategies, right?
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: You're the incumbent.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_00: You want to show a large war chest.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: You want to make sure people know you've got the resources.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: If you're Drazen, you need more resources in the race.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: So you have to spend to A,
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: keep your polling competitive,
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: and B, to get people to continue to give into the race today.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: Because it is competitive.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: So it's two different strategies and they both make sense at different times.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what these other races are if Democrats are down the line waiting until
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: the last day to file or if they're filing when due or whatever.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: Each campaign can make those decisions to some extent.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_00: So anyway,
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'd feel like Hicks is a slam dunk,
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: but because of the Democratic headwinds that we appear to be facing right now,
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: it's sort of a toss-up.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: I still give the edge to Brad because he's just more established in that community.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think Krause is potentially a little crazy, but I'd like to feel better about this race.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I...
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: I agree with you, and I think Brad's a great guy, too.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think he'd be good energy for the Senate, all that sort of stuff.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: The third guy in there does really the Clay Bernson.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: The Independent and the Pacific Greens,
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: so – He's not really reporting any,
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: doing anything on the financial side of stuff,
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: but I do wonder,
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know the ins and outs of the primary down there,
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: like was,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: like are people kind of taking their ball and going home when Denise won
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_01: that primary over Golden's
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_00: preferred candidate?
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: Like that would make a big difference.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like does the enthusiasm gap kind of go down a little bit?
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have that clay guy as somebody who,
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: you can feel better about going and voting for,
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_01: you know, you're still voting, but you just don't want to vote for Denise.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_01: So I think all those little factors definitely give Brad an edge down there,
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: but the headwinds on Just the political headwinds
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_01: that are out there make it very difficult.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I think a lot of Republicans,
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_01: the problem with the political headwinds is that also affects your base turnout.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's really a problem.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: And in this particular seat,
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: It always,
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: the times it loses,
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: and if you look at just these precincts and the way it is,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: it's been about 2,500 votes that you just can't.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: Randy Sparacino literally had almost the exact same vote total in 22 that he got
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: in 24 when he ran for county commissioner in these specific precincts.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's that gap's pretty, 2,500 votes, a big gap.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: So if Clay can bring that gap down a little bit,
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: Brad can tick in there, then I think he's got a shot.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: I still think it's gonna be close.
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: If he wins or loses, I think this one is gonna be pretty razor thin margins.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: We do not win swing seats by big margins, Bryan.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's just not in the cards for Republicans.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_00: We win close races, or we lose close races, or we get blown out.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_00: There's no big Republican blowouts in close seats.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_00: I would like to see more of those,
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_00: but I think we're going to have to build more SEIU-ish machinery in order
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: to pull stuff like that off, and we're going to need...
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_00: The registration competitiveness to increase as it is slowly as is as slowly doing.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Oregon is very,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: very slowly becoming a more competitive state and
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: and it will cause more statewide elections to become competitive
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: with quality candidates that are able to raise money and get out there.
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_00: For the most part,
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_00: beyond governor,
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: we haven't had a lot of quality candidates run that can raise money for seats.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_00: Every once in a while, you get a Dennis Richardson, but those are few and far between.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: We used to compete all the time in statewide races and be very, very competitive.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's likely that Oregon tracks back To that at some point,
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_00: the real question is, is that 10 years away or is that 30 years away?
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: And we would, of course, like it to be sooner rather than later.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, you know, some of us aren't even buying green bananas anymore.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know,
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: it does well for you young bucks,
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: that can be doing races in 20 years from now,
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: but not I. I won't be
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_00: doing races in 20 years.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean...
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: One of the things about sitting out this cycle on the consulting side for
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: the most part is I don't necessarily have a stake in any of these races except for
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_00: that I want the Republicans to win, obviously.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_00: But it's kind of interesting watching from the outside as opposed to being kind of
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_00: in all the know of everything that's going on
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: and knowing who's doing what they're supposed to be doing.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: I have no way of knowing that.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: And so we'll get to see and maybe we can Monday morning quarterback
• 27:45
  SPEAKER_00: and have some folks on to talk about where Oregon Republicans go from here.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_00: If we stem the wave, right, how do we build on that?
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: And if we don't, is it time for a franchise reset, so to speak, right?
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_00: All that kind of stuff.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_01: The other races that are up this district, I mean,
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: a few people looking, I mean,
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: obviously Courtney Bangs is running in Senate District 16,
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_01: you know, replacing Senator Weber, but I mean, that should be fine.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: One half of that district is where all the action is,
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: which is the Cyrus Javity seat, which we'll talk about.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: And then the other half of that seat is pretty solidly Republican.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, Columbia
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: County's really moved.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: To the right,
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's really been one of those counties that is shifted right as people flee
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: the Portland metro area for,
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: the trees of Columbia County and still have to do business in Portland,
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: but they can live out there.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: But that seat should be fine.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then Jeff Helfurch,
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: moving from the House up to the Senate,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: replacing Daniel Bonham and Christine Drazen's seat,
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: which that one's had a lot of action over the last few years in Senate District 26.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_01: And again, there,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_01: one half of his seat is,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: we'll take a lot of discussion with the 52, the gorge portion of that seat.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: But once you get into Clackamas County, it really turns red really fast.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: He'll be fine as well.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: You know, here's my hot take on the Senate stuff.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe this brings true with the House.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: We'll have to see.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: But all of their candidates are women.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: You're talking about in competitive Democratic seats?
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: Or even going up against men.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's all women.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: And it's becoming,
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: and you said it's getting more liberal,
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_01: but I really believe that it's a lot more liberal women.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: Like very left-leaning liberal women that are engaging in the political process,
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: at least on the Senate side.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: But even here looking at all their other,
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: because we don't really have,
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_01: we don't really have,
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_01: we don't have a whole bunch up this cycle,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: but the ones that we do, they're all women running against them.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_01: So I just find that interesting.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll see how that, if that plays through with the House.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: I just think that there's,
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: More and more women on the Democrat,
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: because I would say,
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: who is the Democrat man that really wants to get engaged in woke 2.0, right?
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_01: There's not a lot of those sort of guys.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_01: And if they have, they've been targeted.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
• 30:23
  SPEAKER_00: And not to further belay the point,
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_00: which I've already told the good majority leader, I wouldn't.
• 30:28
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe he tried to come to the Senate and was told, no, he's the wrong gender.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's what happened is they said, no, sorry, Courtney Neuron Mislin is a woman.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: We want her.
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_00: We do not want you.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know that that happened.
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know that didn't happen.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: But as you point out, yeah,
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: that's super interesting because they're running Nicole Bassett against Helfrich,
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: And we're not expecting her to win, but that would flip that district to Democrat woman.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_00: Right now it's Republican woman with Drazen, but it had been Bonham.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: It had been Olsen.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: It had been – was there somebody between Olsen and Bonham?
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_01: I can't remember.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_00: And then Helfrich, right?
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_00: So it's been male Republican – Uh, and, and then golden seat, right?
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: If Krause wins that one, that's a flip to, to woman from man.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, and so that leaves,
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: that leaves a few, uh,
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: of the guys still kicking, uh,
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_00: make and Wagner and presents can manning who none of them have close races
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: that we're aware of at this point.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, so, but, but yeah, no, that's a good, that's an interesting observation, Brian.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_00: And it's interesting to see if that, if that has an impact on, on, on that caucus.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because I think the one area where we still,
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans,
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_01: still kind of have gains or wins with
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_01: a certain group is basically middle-aged men are still kind of in our camp.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: The rest of the Trump coalition is hiding, I believe.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: Or they're upset at their $400 diesel fill up.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: So it's pretty rough.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I was just down there filling up and you have
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_01: to pull out two different credit cards and take out a refinance on my house just
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: to fill up my diesel tank.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's not good, man.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_01: That doesn't help us.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think the headwinds change.
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_01: He's not helping us on AI and data centers.
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I was watching a press conference today when you got on that,
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_01: he's doubling down on the data center stuff and the AI are super intelligence now,
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_01: which I do think is better.
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: SI does sound better than AI.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_01: But
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_00: I don't
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: know.
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_00: It's like when you have a bad bill in the legislature, Bryan,
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_00: and then we come to a compromise on the bill,
• 32:52
  SPEAKER_00: but we have to introduce a new bill because the old bill number is so burdened with
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: the bad bill energy.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: And so he's like, ah, AI, man.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody likes AI.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to do AI, but it's going to be named different.
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's now super intelligence.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_00: It's not artificial.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, he may have reasons for doing it.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't read any of it.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like a rebranding exercise, just like I'm expecting.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: Artificial.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: He doesn't like the word artificial.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_01: He likes super intelligence.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: And it does sound better
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: because artificial intelligence does sound like very sci-fi
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_01: movie stuff, right?
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is the civil rights movement for the robots right here is what it is.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's to get them equality, to get the computers and the AI equality.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I see it.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_00: It makes sense.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think that's about it for the Senate.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we can do some predictions later,
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_01: but I really think, um, I mean, I predict
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_00: that Republican Floyd Brzezinski will win.
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I'm sorry.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: He's also a Democrat.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_01: I predict that James Manning will win.
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: Jama will win.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to predict that Lisa Reynolds will win.
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, Yeah, good job.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_01: Look at you.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_00: Let's see.
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_00: Anybody else?
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_00: I said Gelser already.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_00: Sarah Gelser blew in.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_00: I predict that she will win.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, no, there's a lot.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: The Senate isn't in for a lot of change,
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_00: but it's going to be enough,
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think, to make things, unfortunately, very much worse.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I've seen the greatest Senate of all time,
• 34:30
  SPEAKER_00: 2013 Senate with 16 Democrats,
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_00: one of them being Betsy Johnson and 14 Republicans and Peter Courtney,
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: Senate President.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's the greatest of all time Senate right there.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_00: It all went downhill from there.
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_00: There were some good times to be had, but it's gone downhill since 2013, basically.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and 1614.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, yeah.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, a 1614 Senate is about the best thing you can ask for either way,
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_01: just because you,
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_01: you really do just kind of can kill the bad shit right away and you water down stuff
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_01: and you,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know, you,
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_01: you end up passing a lot better legislation,
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_01: that is usually at that point,
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: especially then you kind of had a,
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_01: the backlash came back with the house when he,
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know, they,
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: they were what back to 20,
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, we were down to what, 24 probably then, I think, in the house.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it was, well,
• 35:22
  SPEAKER_00: right after the 2010,
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_00: so the 30-30 split and then they dropped back down to 26,
• 35:27
  SPEAKER_00: they lost four,
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_00: four swing seats,
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: went backwards, so,
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: and then it held at 26 for a bit and then dropped and dropped and so,
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_00: and it took a while to climb out of that hole and,
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_00: and, We'll just see what's going to happen.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_00: Are Dems going to dig further in?
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: Are Republicans going to have our new low?
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think the hard part is there are some things on our side that need to be evaluated
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_00: at the state level about what we're focused on
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_00: and how we're approaching legislating, how we're approaching being a minority.
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_00: If the numbers stay exactly the same, I don't know that any of that gets evaluated.
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: And so the downside of losing is maybe we look inward and change.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_00: Of course,
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_00: the downside of losing is it's bad for Oregon in the meantime
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_00: because we have less levers to pull to slow, stop, or water things down.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: True.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the other odd one to me is just the lack of money coming out of SDLF.
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_01: Like there just doesn't seem to be...
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_01: An effort to raise money on the Senate Dem side, right?
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, compared to 22, I mean, Wagner was calling other states asking for money.
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, I think, is that a sign of their confidence in their polling?
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: Is that a sign of They think they're fine, but they're really not.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_00: And just like you said, too,
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_00: it's hard to know is Bring Balance putting in offensive money or defensive money,
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we'll see.
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be easy to look back at the results and see was that offensive or defensive money.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_00: And so we'll see still some time yet for more money to flow into these races.
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_00: We can watch for more big checks to drop and see.
• 37:17
  SPEAKER_00: And then I was just reading about it seems like there's $10 million sitting out there.
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_00: What is this?
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's the trades, right?
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: The building trades somehow have $10 million sitting out there ready to drop on
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_00: the heads of Republicans either directly or This is
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: the $10 million mystery check hangs over the governor's race.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: This is Nigel Jacobs at Willamette Week Oregon Journalism Project.
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: So check on that.
• 37:45
  SPEAKER_00: Read on that.
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_00: They've only distributed $500 to Kotech,
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_00: $150 to SDLF, and $200,000 to various Democratic candidates.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_00: So there's still quite a bit more money that they can distribute.
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_00: And who knows what hasn't even been contributed yet that is potentially available.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: But I am going to go through who they've given to,
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_00: because my assumption is they're not giving to anti-AI people,
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: anti-data center people at the same time, though.
• 38:14
  SPEAKER_00: But Kodak's anti-data center right now.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: She's for a moratorium.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: So it's interesting to see these things play together.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll also do an episode on the governor's race.
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_01: You saw my email.
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_01: I put in my official request to the governor's office and then was summarily kicked
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_01: to the campaign because the press office,
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_01: Luke, our friend Luke in the press office kicked us to the campaign right away.
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_01: So I did forward that to the campaign and said, we'd sure like to have her on.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure this is the favorite part of the Governor's Month when she hears
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_00: from Crosstabs and has to decide between her better angels and her worse angels on
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_00: whether or not to appear here with two right-wing, extreme Republican consultants.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: Well...
• 39:19
  SPEAKER_01: We'd give her a fair shake if she came on.
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: You know that.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: I would let her defend her record.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_01: I would too.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_01: 100%.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_00: We've worked a lot with Governor Kotech.
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of that's been very positive and collaborative work.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_00: So I totally agree.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_00: She gets her opportunity if she wants to take it.
• 39:40
  SPEAKER_00: Same for, of course, we're going to have an opportunity for Drazen and team as well.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_01: And then the other area I kind of want to dig into,
• 39:48
  SPEAKER_01: but I need to do some more work into it is the Portland city council races.
• 39:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think there's some interesting stuff happening up there where,
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_01: you know, there's a bunch of collusion between all of the candidates last time.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: And now they're not,
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: you know, like, Hey,
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_01: you give, give,
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_01: tell your donors to give us each $5 so we can,
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_01: we can all get matching money and all that sort of stuff and tell your people
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_01: to rank me second.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: If I'm ranked first and I'll tell my people and,
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_01: It sure seems like they're moving away from that and they're starting to kind
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_01: of battle out their own lines.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I do want to dive into Portland a little bit
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_01: because I do think Portland does have a lot of say in the state because I think
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of our legislators,
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_01: especially the Democrat legislators,
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, what, over almost half of them come from the Portland area?
• 40:39
  SPEAKER_01: I would say,
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_01: especially within those three counties, there's probably over, I bet it's over half.
• 40:45
  SPEAKER_01: So they pay attention to what goes on in Portland.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: So I think it's important for us to as well.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_01: So, well, Reagan, I'll let you get out of your car.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure you were given a task of things to do.
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_00: I've got a lot of it done already.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_00: I wasn't listening to you at all.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just kidding, Brian.
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_00: No, but I got a lot done today.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm feeling good about it.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_00: And we're also hearing and keep sending us.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard about an independence ballot measure that we're going to talk about here
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_00: at some point.
• 41:12
  SPEAKER_00: I just saw on Facebook, Lebanon has a measure to fund reopening the city jail.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how that goes.
• 41:21
  SPEAKER_00: But that's making waves nearby.
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_00: Albany has some interesting city council races we might get a chance to talk about.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_00: We also have a three-way mayor's race.
• 41:33
  SPEAKER_00: And that's got two Democrats in it and then one non-affiliated.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see what the interesting local races are out there.
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_00: So keep sending those to us.
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_00: Keep letting us know about those.
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_00: We'll cover those at some point as well.
• 41:48
  SPEAKER_01: Sounds good.
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yay.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_01: Get home safe.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds good.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, Bryan.
• 41:54
  Bye-bye.