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May 07 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260507 - Ag Markets with Matt Bennett - WILLAg News Update | USDA, USB, Women, and SNAP - Applied Research Results from the University of Illinois - Ag Weather with Mike Tannura Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the seventh day of May 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett from agmarket.net. We'll hear again today from entomologist at the University of Illinois, Nick Seiter, this time around about some of the applied research that's been done in the last year and how you as a producer can access it. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. The cold weather, particularly in the hard red winter wheat growing regions of Kansas and Colorado, and what might happen here in the Midwest as well. We'll do that with Mike Tannura, all on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn in Chicago for the day finished at $4.67 and a half, a penny lower on the afternoon. The September contract at $4.74 and a quarter, it finished three-quarters of a cent lower, and December at $4.89 and a half, down a half cent. The July beans, $11.92 and a quarter, two and a half lower. November at $11.73 and a half, down two cents. Bean meal, a buck sixty higher. The bean oil, 87 cents lower. And soft red winter wheat, down five and a half cents at $6.27 and a quarter. The hard red down 19 and three-quarters at $6.67 and a quarter. 02:01 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett with agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi Matt, thanks for being with us. Tell me about conditions on the ground where you are today. Matt Bennett: It's awfully wet still. We had an inch and a half to two inches of rain here this weekend, so really not much going on. In all honesty, that rain, I don't think people were too upset about it because in a lot of cases it helps some corn come up and maybe some beans as well. I do think there's probably going to have to be a little replanting here and there, maybe not as much as what there would have been without the rain though, because the ground had gotten kind of hard after that previous Monday's heavy rainfall. So it's going to be a few days yet. We'll see what the weather does, but if nothing happens, I'd say by next Monday or Tuesday maybe some guys can sniff around and do something. Todd Gleason: And we'll get a little heat by then, probably as well, that'll help out a crop that is in the ground. What do you see in the marketplace at this time? Matt Bennett: Today was interesting in that crude was getting worked over again earlier in the morning. Crude, as you and I talk, is off $5 off the lows, and so corn had gone down on the July, we'd gone down underneath the 50-day moving average and kind of bounced right back up and actually closed above it. If you look at December corn, it basically went right down to the 50-day, bounced off it. Both of those settled above those two moving averages. July corn settled six and a quarter off its low. I don't have a settlement, but that's what the last price was, about six and a quarter off the low. Whereas December corn got all the way down to $4.83 here today, but closed right around $4.88 and a half. So, in all honesty, some buying kind of came in where it should have came in. If you look over at soybeans, you're about 10 off the lows there. If you look at the charts, same type of situation, went down to the 50-day, tested it, actually went below it, and then settled above it. So, I think it feels a little better going home today than maybe what it did yesterday. Todd Gleason: Not so bad today. Wheat futures are sharply lower today. I assume that's because it didn't get as cold in much of the hard red winter wheat growing regions as was expected, and maybe that there's rainfall coming in parts of Europe that will be very good for the crop there too. Matt Bennett: Definitely. You're talking a global market here. The same thing we've talked about lately. Obviously, that Western wheat crop is in a lot of trouble, but we're not a huge player when it comes to the world wheat export market. So, overall I've got to think the wheat market is going to continue to see maybe a sideways to lower type trade as long as they're getting better weather over there. Now, at the same time, the hard red crop, Oklahoma was rated awful this week. Kansas tours next week. It's going to be rated awful as well, I'm sure. So, no doubt we're going to take maybe a couple hundred million bushels off that crop, and that's going to tighten up the balance sheet for us somewhat. But someone's harvesting wheat pretty much every month of the year, so it's pretty tough to get super excited about our wheat crop. I know guys don't want to hear that out West, but I don't know that we're going to race too much higher right now without additional information, if you will. Todd Gleason: I asked about it particularly because I want to know about the spread between corn and wheat and whether that spread is going to hold down corn or whether you just think we have a sideways trade in front of us for the time being for the marketplace. Matt Bennett: When you look at the spread, you've got to think that's going to kind of narrow in a little bit. It might have as much to do with wheat maybe backing off a little as corn moving up. I think as far as a sideways action, we've been looking for sideways action on corn for the most part. Now, if we're fair about it, December corn is 17 off the highs this week. But at the same time, in the grand scheme of things, I don't really expect from here to acreage for a massive amount of movement unless maybe some of that Chinese business comes in. We're talking that could be part of a trade deal, whispers of Chinese interest in US corn the last week or so, has continued to kind of excite a few people. But we want to see purchases before I think anybody gets too carried away. Todd Gleason: I had asked one of your broker colleagues earlier in the week, Naomi Blohm in fact, about acreage and what USDA might do during next week's USDA report. That'll be the first look numbers from WASDE for the new crop. Now I got to thinking about that, it's not really the acreage they ever change, but it is the yield that they will change at that point, given every planting rate. Do you think that might happen? Matt Bennett: I don't think so, Todd. I think that if you were running vastly behind pace, it might be a situation. Now we all know that some of the higher production areas, Eastern Iowa, parts of Northern Illinois, maybe didn't get off to the start that they wanted to. But you're actually running right at the planting pace for this week. I don't necessarily see that. What they're going to use is most likely that 183 from the Ag Outlook Forum on yield, which is kind of their standard protocol, and then they'll use the planting intentions number at 90.03. And so, from there you just have to guesstimate, what does demand look like? We actually came up with something just shy of 1.9. We feel pretty strongly that the reduction in acres is still going to see really strong demand. We kind of feel like the old crop balance sheet could tighten up just a shade, but base down exports, even though we kind of feel like that feed number is still a little too high. Todd Gleason: And finally, on world politics. A couple of things going on as it's related to Iran. The Trump administration and those in Iran are working through some details maybe of a one-page agreement that might offer up some room for them to negotiate for a month. However, it appears Iran still wants to have control of the Strait of Hormuz. And the other thing that's happening is that oil tankers are showing up off the coast of the United States. I'm wondering what impact that might have, if any, on the commodity markets for grains and oil seeds. Matt Bennett: Iran did come out and say they basically rejected Trump's deal, said it was unrealistic and that they're going to have to do something as far as some reparations and benefits for Iran that they called tangible. So, I don't know that we're quite where we want to be. I think Trump is wanting to sound optimistic, of course, he's catching a ton of heat on energy prices. But what that might mean for commodity prices for us, there's no doubt that you've seen soybean oil follow crude oil around quite a bit here. Soybean oil here today, again, of course, was off, but we put a multi-year high in this week. We took the thing all the way up to $78.50, and that's a pretty salty price. I've got to think that if we establish ourselves again in that $100 and above level, it's not going to do anything to slow down the interest in owning some of these products like soybean oil that make renewable diesel. The US isn't the only ones wanting to do that. Brazil is talking about a 100% mix. Other countries are talking about a heavy mix of soybean oil and renewable diesel. So those are all good factors and I've got to think if crude oil stays strong, you're still going to see a lot of interest in oil commodities. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, Matt. Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Thank you. Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net. 09:37 WILLAg News Update | USDA, USB, Women, and SNAP Todd Gleason: Here are a couple of news items for the day. First, we'll circle back to something that happened late last week. The Trump administration dismissed all four women and one man who were elected by their peers to the United Soybean Board last year. The 70-member board is elected by the nationwide soybean checkoff members in each of the represented states annually. They serve three-year terms. After the organization selects board members, the US Department of Agriculture signs off on the nominees. Three of the four women say USDA gave them no explanation for their dismissal. The women rejected include soybean farmers Sarah Stelter of Wisconsin, Carla Schultz of Michigan, and Susan Watkins of Virginia. Watkins, by the way, has been on the board for six years and was appointed treasurer in December. She told reporters she was working her way up to become a chair of the board. Clearly, that's no longer the case. The Virginia Soybean Board appealed the USDA's dismissal of Watkins, but USDA replied saying its decision was final. Let's stay with USDA for the moment. Today it published the final rule regarding stocking standards for retailers participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance, or SNAP program, saying it would ensure a broader variety of nutritious food is available to SNAP participants at authorized retailers across the country. Retailers authorized to accept SNAP benefits must now carry seven varieties of items across four categories of staple foods: proteins, grains, dairy, and fruits and vegetables. This change, USDA reports, more than doubles the requirement of available foods, emphasizes more whole foods, increases the perishable food requirements, and eliminates loopholes that for too long it thinks has allowed retailers to count certain snack foods toward their staple food requirements. It's unclear how the retailers USDA is targeting with these new requirements will react. The agency made note of 3,200 suspect outlets saying oftentimes these are the only stores easily accessible by the local population. That's an important fact because those 3,200 stores might simply choose not to accept SNAP rather than change what is on the shelf or make the necessary investments to purchase and store highly perishable goods. USDA maintains the rule changes will ensure vulnerable families in need have more nutritious options wherever they shop, but by demanding more accountability from retailers who not only have to stock the bare minimum, the agency will change what is on the shelf. These updates go into effect fall of 2026 and the department plans to issue additional guidance to retailers in the coming weeks. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You're listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. 12:46 Applied Research Results from the University of Illinois Todd Gleason: Crop scientists here on the University of Illinois have published their brand new 2025 applied research results guide targeted to farmers. Nick Seiter says this is designed for producers to use when making insect and disease control decisions. Nick Seiter: Every year we put together the results from many of our applied entomology and pathology trials into a report that we post to the extension website. It's not necessarily everything that we do in a year, so we choose the trials where we feel the results can directly inform management practices in corn and soybean. So for example, if we're evaluating different commercially available rootworm insecticides in a field experiment, we'll go ahead and publish that in the report because it can give farmers a third-party evaluation of what they might expect if they use those products on their own farm. Todd Gleason: Seiter, of course, is a field crops entomologist here on campus. The report, it's not exactly new, well it is new for this year, but not a new report. Nick Seiter: We've got a report available now going back to 2018. Every year since 2018 we've gone ahead and published that. Some are bigger, some are smaller, but it's something that we've been doing for a while and plan to keep doing in the future. Todd Gleason: Here's an example of what a farmer might find useful in that 2025 applied research results field crop disease and insect management report. Nick Seiter: One thing we looked at this year that I'm pretty excited about, we went and took a look at extended diapause in northern corn rootworm. And if you remember, that's the trait that that insect can use to potentially circumvent crop rotation as a control. This is the first time in really several decades in Illinois that anybody's looked at this. And so it's been pretty neat to get a good look at it. That's work with Dr. Joe Spencer in the Natural History Survey. That's in addition to the usual efficacy trials on corn rootworm that we have in there. Several fungicide efficacy trials, insect, pest, and disease surveys. We've also got a report on the effect of soybean insecticides on insect counts and yield in field experiments that we conducted throughout Illinois. Todd Gleason: Those of you wanting to access the University of Illinois Extension's Applied Research Results can find it online. Just go to go.illinois.edu/pestmanagementresearchreport. I know that's long, go.illinois.edu/pestmanagementresearchreport, or it might simply be easier to search for applied research results, comma, Illinois. That's applied research results, comma, Illinois. 16:02 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention to the global growing regions and what the conditions are like on the ground in each of them for the crop. We're joined by Mike Tannura now. He's a T-Storm Weather president and CEO there in Naperville, Illinois, online at tstorm.net. Hi Mike, thanks for being with us. A lot of area to cover today. Important to begin, I think, though, in the hard red winter wheat growing regions, particularly of Western Kansas, parts of Colorado. They were supposed to get very, very cold last night. In fact, cold enough that it could have been a killing frost freeze. Did that happen? Mike Tannura: Well, it happened in parts of Colorado, but for a majority of the crop, it did not happen. Temperatures fell to between 32 and 36 degrees in western Kansas as well as western Oklahoma. And then it was one to three degrees colder in Colorado. So overall, temperatures were a little bit warmer than where they could have been and more than likely the damage to this crop from this event was probably fairly limited, at least in the major areas of Kansas and Oklahoma. Todd Gleason: Now, while that happened and it did not fix, of course, anything related to the drought, how dry is it there, and how concerned should we be? Mike Tannura: I think you should be very concerned. If you look at rains over the last 60 days, basically about half of the US crop had under half of its normal rainfall over that period of time. And that's the highest since about 2014. We can look at all different measures of rains over the last 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, even going back six months, and no matter how you look at it, we're in a pretty significant drought. It's hard to pin exactly where we're going to line up compared to past years, but our records go back to 2012 and basically say this is going to rank right up there with some of the other years like either 2014, 2022, or 2023. We'll see how that pans out, and that even includes that we had some rain over there over the last two days in Colorado and in western Kansas, those two areas that had some frost this morning. Todd Gleason: What's the forecast look like for those areas? Mike Tannura: There's no major rains ahead, at least over the next seven to ten days. And we are going to go through a pretty significant weather change over the next five to ten days. The central US is going to turn a lot warmer over the next five days, and that will initially start in the plains. We'll see high temperatures in the 70s, 80s, and 90s across most of the hard red winter wheat crop for at least seven to ten days starting around Sunday and Monday. So, a big shift toward warmer weather, and that's also going to extend into the spring wheat areas. Now, for spring wheat, they'll probably enjoy this because they'll be able to start growing quickly, and the lack of rain will allow planting to move forward. But Todd, that's a sensitive line because if we stay dry and warm like this, then eventually it would become a little bit of a problem at least for both of these crops, spring wheat and hard red winter wheat in the northern plains. So, that'll be the next thing to watch with rain chances pretty low for the next seven to ten days. Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to the Corn Belt, the Midwest. Start in Nebraska and then work your way eastward please. Mike Tannura: That warm weather is going to be great for growing corn and soybeans in the northwestern growing areas, so that's maybe the first thing to take home. Secondly, there's not very much rain in the forecast for the northwest half of corn and soybeans either. So, planting is going to move forward fairly quickly from Nebraska through Iowa and then points onto the north through the Dakotas and Minnesota. Now as we move south and east, as you know, it's pretty cool out today and that's going to last for about five more days. It will also turn warmer in the eastern Corn Belt as we move into the second half of next week, but there will be a little bit more rain than what we're talking about to the northwest. Now that being said, we're not looking for a heavy rain, but there certainly will be some storms around over the next three to four days in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. And then we'll probably see a little more rain as we move through next week in that transition from cool weather back to warm weather. So overall, maybe not ideal for the south half of US corn and soybeans, but looking pretty ideal to the northwest. Todd Gleason: As is typical in South America, the Brazilian crop, particularly for corn, safrinha's second crop, we've now moved past the monsoon season into the dry season for it. Have there been concerns that there are drier than maybe expected kinds of areas or maybe it's just slightly abnormally dry? If you could give me your outlook, I would appreciate that. Mike Tannura: We would argue that soil moisture throughout most of March and April was pretty good. We didn't have ideal soil moisture, but we had some pretty nice rains here and there, and that kept all of the things that we monitor in check. So pretty much everything was looking fine going into May. Now we're in May, but a big upper-level high has formed in the northern areas, and that's basically going to mark the start of the dry season for about 70% of this crop. You can go back maybe five to ten days and that's probably when the dry season will have officially started once we're able to review the entire season. And that's not ideal for that crop just because if you can keep it cool and you can keep it wet all the way through May, that's where you tend to get your bumper crops. That doesn't look very likely at this point in time, so we'll just have to kind of watch that. The southern 30% though of this crop will continue to get some rain. So they're not going to be having much of a story there with soil moisture in good shape and more rains ahead. Todd Gleason: Tell me finally about more of the northern hemisphere, particularly across western Europe all the way in through Ukraine and Russia. Mike Tannura: We think that's important because even though we've been talking about this drought for the US hard red winter wheat crop, which is significant, we're seeing kind of the opposite develop in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. A lot of these areas had some pretty nice rains over the course of the last six months, and even though parts of Ukraine have been drying out recently, it looks like a pretty stormy pattern is setting up for all of these areas. The jet stream is basically going to line up from Europe into western Asia, and that should bring some pretty nice rains to most of the wheat crops across the European Union into Ukraine and then across Russia as well. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, Mike. Mike Tannura: Yeah, thanks for having me here, Todd. Todd Gleason: You're welcome. That's Mike Tannura, he is with T-Storm Weather at tstorm.net online. Do not forget that we'll record our Commodity Week program this afternoon. It will air on our home station in its entirety tomorrow, many of these radio stations over the weekend, and be up online at willag.org. That's willag.org this evening, or in your favorite podcast application. Search it out by name, Commodity Week. You've been listening to the Closing Market Report for a Thursday. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.