Latest / Merryn Talks Money / Markets Wrap: Private Credit, War and a Lack of Safe Havens

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Markets Wrap: Private Credit, War and a Lack of Safe Havens · Merryn Talks Money

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Welcome to the Marin
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Talks Money Markets RAP, where we talk about the biggest
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: moves and markets this weekend, what is driving them. I'm
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Maren Zumset. We're better if you're at large of Bloomberg
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: UK Well.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: And I'm jointed Stapic Senior reports the Bloomberg not sort
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: of the award winning money distilled newsletters.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: John. Their problem this week is it? The answer to
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: pretty much every question is fight. I don't know. I
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: don't know. Where's the old price going to go? I
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: don't know how long will the war last? I don't
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  Speaker 1: know is releasing the reserves enough? I don't know. What
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: about private credit? How dangerous is it? I'm not really sure.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a very difficult time, isn't it. It's
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: you know, normally we can really come out with quite
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: strong opinions on things. Were quite good at that, but
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  Speaker 1: this is hard because the moving parts are so many
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  Speaker 1: and so various, and the conversation about the war and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: about the supply crunch that comes as a result that
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: is now moved away from just oil, and people are
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: talking about self fur, selfuric acid, fertilizer, than agriculture in general.
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  Speaker 1: And once you start looking through those supply pains, that
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: the supply chains, then you have to start thinking really
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: very seriously about what happens with interest rates. And once
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: you start thinking about that, then you have to worry
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  Speaker 1: even more about where the cracks come if interest rates
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  Speaker 1: go up, not down, and we move into a stagulationary era.
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  Speaker 1: I was going to introduce this in a very short
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: way by just saying there are things we don't know,
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  Speaker 1: and now I've told you about even more things that
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  Speaker 1: I don't know about. So let's start with oil. This
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  Speaker 1: is unbelievably volatile. In fact, we were introduced the other
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  Speaker 1: day to the idea that there's a there is such
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: thing as a bull market, there is such thing as
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: a bear market, and there was also no such thing
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: as a kangaroo market. Up and down so fast, up
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: and down so fast that you never know if you're
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: in a bullmarket or a bear market anymore.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, So that was Monday's round trip in oil, wasn't it. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: we got everyone gets so panicked over the weekend that
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  Speaker 2: it spiked up to nearly one hundred and twenty dollars
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  Speaker 2: on Monday morning and then by the end of the
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  Speaker 2: day it was back below ninety, which was where it
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  Speaker 2: had ended Friday night. Yeah, yeah, I mean, yeah, you
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  Speaker 2: can see what I mean. That was at least broadly
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  Speaker 2: explainable in At the end of that day, Donald Trump
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  Speaker 2: had said something along the lines of was kind of
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  Speaker 2: nearly almost done here and gave a sense that it
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  Speaker 2: would be a short war rather than a long war.
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  Speaker 2: But most of the rest of this week has been
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  Speaker 2: people realizing that, a it's not just up to Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump if the war actually ends or not. And also
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  Speaker 2: the either it was quite a throwaway comment, and now
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  Speaker 2: the straight horn moves is pretty much blocked, which you know,
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  Speaker 2: knocks out a large chunk of the global oil supply
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  Speaker 2: as well as all the other things that you just
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: talked about. And again we are sort of back to
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  Speaker 2: I think where we were on Monday. Not I mean,
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  Speaker 2: the oil price is just under one hundred dollars a
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  Speaker 2: barrow as we're recording just now. But the point is
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  Speaker 2: it is back to that thing of we don't know
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  Speaker 2: what's going to happen, and the big variaboat is how
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  Speaker 2: long the war lasts for. And I think the only
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  Speaker 2: thing you can really say is that markets are starting
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  Speaker 2: to or certain markets are starting to price in, particularly
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: the kind of bond markets are starting to say. And
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  Speaker 2: also today we got the Royal Institution in Chartered Surveyor's
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  Speaker 2: report for February. And one of the kind of ironic
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  Speaker 2: things about this is I was actually quite surprised at
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  Speaker 2: first when it came out, because it did show signs
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  Speaker 2: of you know, the state agents and other property professionals
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  Speaker 2: being worried about them market because of the war. And
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  Speaker 2: I hadn't realized what about half of the responses to
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  Speaker 2: the survey came just after the end of February, hence
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  Speaker 2: it showing up, and so you can already see like
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  Speaker 2: it's the same way. MORTGIU rates have gone up a
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  Speaker 2: bit and the surveyors have got a bit more nervous,
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  Speaker 2: and it's because of this because they realize that if
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  Speaker 2: oil stays where it is, you know, the chances is
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  Speaker 2: getting another kind of cost a living shock, and of
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  Speaker 2: interest rates not coming down maybe not even at all
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  Speaker 2: this year, kind of go up. And that obviously if
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: mortgage rates are higher then they would have been that
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  Speaker 2: mean house prices are quite lower, then they would have
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  Speaker 2: been less demand, et cetera. Et cetera. But again, it
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  Speaker 2: is all dependent on how long it lasts. I suppose
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  Speaker 2: the one thing is the longer it goes on for
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  Speaker 2: the more kind of scarring is baked in.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm most slightly slightly at the point where when
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  Speaker 1: we can recognize that pretty much everyone's lose a hare,
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  Speaker 1: and but from you know, the very obvious losers, the
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  Speaker 1: people actually involved in in the war, and the human
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  Speaker 1: cost outside that, it's hard to look around and say, well,
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  Speaker 1: you know, which asset class wins here? How does this work?
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  Speaker 1: You know, you have economies that are losers, you have
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  Speaker 1: asset classes that are losers. You know, you have that
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  Speaker 1: worry about the future of chip production balked earlier about
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  Speaker 1: agriculture and the oil price itself, gas prices. You know
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  Speaker 1: that it's hard to look around and think that really
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  Speaker 1: anybody is winning from this.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean, I suppose the only the only
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  Speaker 2: big picture thing that we can see is that it's
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  Speaker 2: it's all weirdly part of the same thing we've been
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: talking about for a whale, which is the move from
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  Speaker 2: a justin time modeled to a just in case world.
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  Speaker 2: And you know, some of the people who think that
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  Speaker 2: Trump's playing five D chase, And I'm honestly, I'm absolutely
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  Speaker 2: on the fence about this. I mean, I don't think
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  Speaker 2: he probably hasn't because I've seen more than enough of
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  Speaker 2: politics to see that most of the time they seem
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  Speaker 2: to be winging it. But certainly in terms of the
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: US is stated military and economic strategy, and if you
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: look at what the dead in Venus realize, well, then
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  Speaker 2: there is an element of having a desire to have
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  Speaker 2: control over the world's supply choke points. Is there somewhere,
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  Speaker 2: And if the outcome of this is that the US
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  Speaker 2: effectively has the ability to open and shut the Straight
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  Speaker 2: of Horus when it wants to, then that is a
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  Speaker 2: sort of potential strategic goal that would also, you know,
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  Speaker 2: it kind of makes sense a long way the desire
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  Speaker 2: to take over Greenland, for example, and the fact that
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  Speaker 2: they got rid of the guy in Venezuela because he
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  Speaker 2: wasn't cooperating with them, all those sorts of things, you
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  Speaker 2: can say that the US is strategically interested in these
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  Speaker 2: areas that are important to global supply chains. So I
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  Speaker 2: kind of, you know, whatever the outcome is all playing
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  Speaker 2: into that thing of we need to be more resilient
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  Speaker 2: and if you like, you can apply that to your
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  Speaker 2: own portfolio, into your own personal finances. You need to
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  Speaker 2: be more prepared for a world where you know, disruption
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  Speaker 2: could actually come very close to home me infrastructure could
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: be disrupted, etc.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, on the subject of infrastructure, I mean, as
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  Speaker 1: you say, yes, you're right, these are things we've been
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  Speaker 1: talking about for ages. You know, Stop thinking you live
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  Speaker 1: in a peaceful world, Stop thinking you live in a
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  Speaker 1: globalized world. Stop thinking that all the things at the
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  Speaker 1: top of the pyramid of need are the important things,
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  Speaker 1: and start looking at the bottom. Start thinking about your
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: portfolio in terms of energy, security, food, so security. Financial
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  Speaker 1: security will come back to that with private credit, industrial security,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: et cetera. And that all feeds into the no more phomo,
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  Speaker 1: lots more halo hard assets, low obsolescence. I can remember
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  Speaker 1: that now, it will feeds into into that bit. And
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  Speaker 1: then there are you know, we can we can say
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  Speaker 1: there are some some markets that may be bigger losers,
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  Speaker 1: and other markets that we can say that. Obviously, Asian
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  Speaker 1: markets which import economies that important awful lot of their
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  Speaker 1: fossil fuels from the Middle East are in more more
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  Speaker 1: medium and long term danger than say economies in Latin
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  Speaker 1: America that do not, So you have kind of that
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  Speaker 1: bad division. But I suppose then what you and I
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  Speaker 1: might ask is how does one hedge against that? And
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  Speaker 1: of course got gold has been not a bad performer
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  Speaker 1: into this, but not as good as not as good
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  Speaker 1: as one might have expected, possibly because it's already quite expensive.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think we need to bother talking about Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I don't think we need to bother talking about bitcoin.
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  Speaker 1: It's unclear that any sovereign bonds make a good hedge
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  Speaker 1: against this in this kind of environment, on the basis
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  Speaker 1: that if we have stagulation, who wants to be holding
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  Speaker 1: UK bonds or US bonds? And that's particular the case
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  Speaker 1: if at least in money starts to be withdrawn, in
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  Speaker 1: particular from the US. Right there's a lot of rebuilding
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  Speaker 1: and infrastructure restating to do that. In the midd least,
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  Speaker 1: maybe that the amount of money that usually flows into
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  Speaker 1: the US won't be flowing in there. And the other
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  Speaker 1: thing that I've been thinking about a little bit is water.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know if you remember, John, but you know,
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  Speaker 1: ten fifteen years ago I think you and I both
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  Speaker 1: U s trited relatively frequent stories about about fresh water
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  Speaker 1: supply globally and water is the new oil and that
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  Speaker 1: kind of thing, and lots of future water would be
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: about water as opposed to about oil, and kind of
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  Speaker 1: didn't happen. You know, Desalination really really got so much better,
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  Speaker 1: and Saudi and Ran and a lot of these Middle
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  Speaker 1: Eastern countries were incredibly heavily on their desalination plants. But
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  Speaker 1: of course that is a point of enormous weakness, enormous weakness.
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  Speaker 1: You know, you can, you can, you can cause an
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  Speaker 1: extraordinary amount of suffering by hitting Saudi Arabias desalination plants.
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  Speaker 1: And I know that i Ran already had a water
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  Speaker 1: shortage before we even got to this point. So that's
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  Speaker 1: another piece of infrastructure and bottom bottom of the pyramid
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  Speaker 1: that one to think about water security.
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  Speaker 2: It's scary stuff, unfortunately, and.
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  Speaker 1: How we can just round it up there, It is
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  Speaker 1: indeed scary stuff.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, And then I suppose the other problem is one
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  Speaker 2: of our lisceners from the seventies particularly, And you know,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: if we're starting from the point where gold is already
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: it's all pretty highly priced. That doesn't mean it can't
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: go higher. I don't know, but it's not cheap. Nothing
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: really did that well in the seventies in terms of assets,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: or certainly not during the big inflationary moments, like in
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: equities didn't delivered in real terms, and boinds certainly obviously
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: didn't deliver. So there is sometimes like your portfolio is
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: just harder than others. You know, we've been through a
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: good few decades where you could hold equities or boins
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: and you would get decent returns from both, and unfortunately
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: might be going into any era where whatever you hold,
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: your returns are rubbish, you know, or you know it's
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: much harder to get decent returns.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, unless you get it right at every level.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, it's perfectly reasonable to say, well, this
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: is just this is just a perfectly normal turning point
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  Speaker 1: in me being into a new era or of value
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: investing and investing in real assets rather than the rest.
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  Speaker 1: And that's that. Yeah, And really, really this isn't hard.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: It's only hard because you're not used to it.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, Yes, that's.
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  Speaker 1: Speaking of things that we don't really understand and that
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: are hard because we're not used to it. Private credit,
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  Speaker 1: I know you have been grappling with us. I have
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: been grappling with this. We both legged it and we go, Okay,
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  Speaker 1: we've watched, we watched the sector grow, we watch it
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: got kind of big. We kind of worried about the
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: lack of transparency. We're kind of worried when private when
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: private credit made its way into funds available for retail investors.
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  Speaker 1: But we're never quite certain whether it's so embedded in
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  Speaker 1: the system that it creates any kind of systemic risk
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: if and when it goes wrong. And I we're kind
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: of about find the answer to that, aren't we.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're probably will. My gut feeling is
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  Speaker 2: that this is more adversiation amplifier than a financial crisis issue.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So right, where's that?
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Well, Okay, so we've heard people talking about two thousand
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: and eight in connection with their A bit, and that's
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: partly because so what's happened is that basically you've got
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: these you've got investment trusts and open ended funds in America.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Let's call them those. They're business development companies but BDC's
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: but some of them are open ended, some of them
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: are kind of investment trusts are closed end. So the
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: ones that are investment trusts are trading the same way
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: as private equity trusts do. Here big discounts to the
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: underlying value of the portfolios of loans that they've made
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: to these companies. So that's what private credit is, just
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: loans made direct companies, not involving or technically not involving
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: the banking sector. So because I mean, the trigger point
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  Speaker 2: for this obviously there's been some concern about them anyway
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: because of rising interest rates, but the main trigger point
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: has been AI getting a lot better in this sense
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: that software is a service, companies are just going to
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: get wiped out. So if you're looking at something.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: And a lot of the loans were to those companies exactly,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: and software very connected.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: And if you're looking at a big listed one of
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: these companies taken a you know, twenty percent hitting a day,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: then you've got to think, well, I'm innute. This is
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: the you know, this is the market leader. Is the
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: one hundred listed or you know s and P five
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: hundred listed company is falling off? What's happening to the
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: ones that these companies have owned money to. And so
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: that's the reason that, if you like, kind of confidence
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: has been shaken in these assets. And one of the
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: reasons it's grabbing headlines just now is because people are
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: rushing to take their money out of the open ended funds,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: and obviously open ended funds that own a liquid assets.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: We've seen that here before in the UK. Make commercial
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: property companies are funds. After twenty sixteen, everyone rushed to
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: get their money out, but you can't sell an office
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: block in a day, so the funds had to be gated.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Now the funds in America are actually much better set up.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: They've already warned people, you know, when you go into it,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: it's quarterly liquidity, so you can only get your money
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: out once a quarter and there's a kind of maximum
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: or a technical maximum withdrawal of five percent of the
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: total assets of the fund. So if everyone chips in
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: and says they want more than five percent as a
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: total of the fund, then it's got every rate to say, well, actually, no,
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: we're not going to do that. We're going to you know,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: we're going to give you back the five percent, but
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: that's it. You can't get any more back right now.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: And they can do that perfectly rationally simply by saying,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: you know, there are long term loans. You were in
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: for the long term. This is not like you know,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: not like a run on a bank, then you just
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: gotta have your money for stop h.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, and this is it. And from that point
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: of view, this is that that bit of it is
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: just a liquidity issue as far as I'm concerned, And
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: all it is is that or at the end of
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: the day, if you were draft enough to invest in
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: this and or knowing these rules and advice, then you know,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: you kind of got to suck it up. You know,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: that's just the way that these things work. I think
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: the bigger issue is, well, what happens if all of
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: these loans are actually also going bad? And for example, yeah,
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: JP Morgan, there's a piece in the Ft and of
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: this week where they were saying that they were starting
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: to cut back on the amount on because these BDCs
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: have lines of credit with banks which enabled them to
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: know either you know, realize redemptions whenever they haven't you know,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: they can't sell enough for or to you know, leverage
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: up a bit. But they don't leverage up a lot.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: To be clear, they are a bit like investment trusts.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: From that point of view, where we see JP Morgan
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: has sort of said, we expect you to write down
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: the value of some of these loans you've made the
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: software companies, because we are not going to lend you
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: more money against those ones. And so they've been keeping
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: an eye on what's actually in these portfolios, and they're saying, actually,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: your mark to market thing is you're what you're value
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: in these are we're not taking that as red So
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: I suppose one of the problems is, well, what happens
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: is if there's much bigger defaults in this space than
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: anyone had expected, it's like who ends up holding the
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: bag for that? For example, insurers apparently own quite a
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: lot of this stuff because they were investing in private
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: assets because you know, they've got high yield and the
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: high yield matches where their liability. But you know that
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: only works if you know if the shift if the
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: yield actually gets paid out. So I can see that
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: there are connections there. But the difference bet two thousand
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: and eight is that in two thousand and eight, the
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: actual banking system was insanely over leveraged, and it only
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: took a small bit of the housing market going bad
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: for that to tip them over the edge. And as
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: far as I can see, there just isn't that level
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: of leverage in the banking sector these days, so I
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: can see that what you know, for example, like if
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: all these loans start going bad, then it will be
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: much harder as a small or medium sized company to
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: get a loan from anywhere, and that could end up,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: you know, killing the whole sway of businesses that are
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: basically zombie firms you know, or that are currently only
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: imagine it, stay afloat of their payments by using payment
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: in kind, which is basically a way to avoid having
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: to pay you know, your cash loan, and it's a
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: way for you know them to having them being able
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: to avoid writing down the loans. But I don't so
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: I think it would make a bad situation worse. But
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's the sort of thing where we see,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: you know, the whole of global credit is drying up
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: and you're you know, you might not be able to
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: get cash out of the bank on Friday morning unless
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: government step in. You don't do what they did in two.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Thought it hadn't really a cut to anybody, And now
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you've put it in people.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Well you know, you know, I'm just testing the resilience of.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: The financial system. So maybe down panic if you do
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: have your money in a private credit fund, but maybe
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: now's not the time to go out actively looking to
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: put your money in one.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: You know what, there is something interesting because the b
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: DC's the ones that are investment trust style once as
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: they're trading the discounts. So if you are the kind
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: of person, because I mean, what's his name, boy is
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Weinstein who obviously has made a big name for himself
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: over here, you know, kind of annoying people in the
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: investment trust industry.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: He's already annoying them.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: Oh, really annoying them. I mean they maybe need to
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: be annoyed. But that's let's throw part of that for
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: a second. But you know, he's been talking about buying
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: some of these assets kind of fire sale prices, you know,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: saying well, look, if you guys want to, then sell
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: me the loans, but I won't. I'll buy them for
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: you know whatever, a third off. And if somebody like
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: that is doing that, then you're kind of like, well, okay,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: I mean this this stuff can't be totally toxic. It's
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: just mispriced. And maybe if you're paying a lot of
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: attention and you're you know, get a lot more time
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: and patients than say I have, then you might run
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: down some of these BDCs, go into how they're structured
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: and all the rest of it, and they'll be work
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: out that actually this is not bad value. But I mean, again,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: you know, we're talking to UK investors. Here's the chances
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: that are that most of you, you know, even in
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: a particular position to do that. But I'm struggling to
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: see how. I don't think the two thus in eight
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: comparisons are reasonable, but I will keep looking at it.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, Well, more on this later. I am sure and
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: fingers crossed that John is right and this is not
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: a two thousand and eight moment. Aldo. I've got to
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: say as a year, it's been been quite a year
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: so far, hasn't it. If you list all the extraordinary
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: and unexpected things that have happened, you're up to quite
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: quite a long list.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I suppose we've getten off to worry. But it sort
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: of feels like this is this is an issue, but
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: it's not.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: It's not some of the other issues. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: And again I suppose we can end on a tiny
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: little abne You mentioned the RICKS survey, and it's all
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: a little disappointing in the UK housing market. But I
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: saw in the papers this morning that London agents are
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: very excited because lots of people who are coming back
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: from Dubai are renting expensive houses off them and looking
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: to buy. Yeah, so there's self aligning. It's the only
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: one I've managed to pull out so far that London
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: estate agents are feeling a little bit more cheery.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: Well, I guess London always benefits from capital fleet and
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: for the way all capital capital exactly exactly.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Briefly, we look less bad than everywhere else.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: Yes, yes, give it.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: That's something, give it time exactly. And I would also say,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: by the way that we are now, the FFTY one
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: hundred is one of the very few markets that is
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: up on the air.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: That's true. That's true.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's not all bad. Thanks for listening this
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: week's Marren Talks Money Markets RAP. If you like us, share, rate, review,
• 20:33
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• 20:36
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• 20:38
  Speaker 1: w and John Underscore step X. This episode was produced
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: by Summersati and Moses and