Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 209 - 1/30/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 209 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:35Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week is coming to a
- 0:38close. The month of January almost over
- 0:40with. Before you know it, it'll be
- 0:42February 1 day closer here to the Super Bowl.
- 0:45And I did notice one thing we talked about on yesterday's
- 0:47podcast, just keeping our eye on that Chiefs, Philadelphia
- 0:51Eagles, Super Bowl, and we talked about how we're still
- 0:53pretty much Kansas City -1 1/2. You guys know where I stand.
- 0:57I got a lot of systems here. Mahomes straight up.
- 1:00Obviously I have my vendetta play where I'm not betting
- 1:02against my home. So still a money line bet for me
- 1:05on Kansas City, although I haven't played it yet because
- 1:07I'm making sure we don't get down to a pick em because I
- 1:10don't want to be directly against the sharp move.
- 1:12And then I also want to get the best money line price possible
- 1:15with KC. So I'm hoping around a -, 120.
- 1:18That's my goal. But we also mentioned yesterday
- 1:20in terms of the total, because surprisingly that was a 49 1/2.
- 1:25I guess that wasn't the surprising part that it opened
- 1:27really high because if you remember a couple years ago,
- 1:29that was a game that went into the 70s.
- 1:32We noticed how or you mentioned yesterday how we saw that fall a
- 1:35little bit, 49 1/2. A lot of the hooks are now gone,
- 1:38mostly 40 nines now even see some books at 48 1/2.
- 1:42You got a lot of betting here, over 80% of bets and dollars at
- 1:46DraftKings on the over. A little bit sharper of an under
- 1:48split at Circa, but I did notice if you're on Twitter and you
- 1:52don't follow this man, you should at Jimmy Vaccaro, who's
- 1:55one of the the best wise guys when it comes to bookmaking.
- 1:59Obviously at the South point. But right after we did the pod,
- 2:02I noticed that he tweeted something out.
- 2:03It was a bets slip, someone who bet $55,000 on under 49 1/2.
- 2:10So the the the to win is 50K to collect their obviously is 105
- 2:15K. But that just was kind of
- 2:16interesting to me that we saw a move in the market and Jimmy
- 2:19Vaccaro saw some some big money or someone walk up to the
- 2:23counter there and bet a big amount of of bucks on that
- 2:26under. So what do you guys think is the
- 2:28under the sharp play here? It certainly is the contrarian
- 2:30play, but man, you gotta have balls of steel to play that
- 2:33under obviously because we saw it fly over the last time.
- 2:36But hey, just coincided with that under move.
- 2:39So moving on toward today, guys, I do have a 5 pack of sweats for
- 2:43you all. College basketball, couple early
- 2:45games and then three late games. Of course, 3 pack.
- 2:49Let's try to get three or more. And I, I was very happy to see
- 2:52yesterday that we bounced back after our really bad night the
- 2:55the night before. O and 4 -, 4 units, the golden
- 2:58sombrero, nice little bounce back last night, 3 and 1 + 1.3
- 3:02units. Had a couple nice hits early in
- 3:04the night with UNC Asheville and UNC Greensboro both coming
- 3:08through on the money line. And then we had a great hit late
- 3:11night. It didn't look good in the first
- 3:13half. But that UNLV, Utah State over
- 3:16#1 how good are the odds makers? I got over 145 1/2.
- 3:20You might have gotten over 146 1/2.
- 3:22Luckily it didn't matter because it landed on 147.
- 3:26So just goes to show you how good the odds makers are at set
- 3:28numbers. But that one was a game at at
- 3:31half where I said, oh, I think they only had 57 points.
- 3:33They scored 90 in the second-half, so a nice little
- 3:36win there. With that over, the only loser
- 3:38was Mississippi State. Love that play toward
- 3:41Mississippi State. They were battling the whole
- 3:43time against Alabama and they had multiple chances down the
- 3:45stretch. Then a play to take the lead
- 3:48with, I don't know, 10 seconds left.
- 3:49Great dish to the big man going right down the lane.
- 3:52He misses a layup. Then he had other chances to
- 3:54score and they booted the ball. So they lost by a couple.
- 3:57Couldn't get Mississippi State, but overall, 3 and 1 + 1.3
- 4:01units. I'll take that every single
- 4:02time. So turning the page for today
- 4:05and also mention hopefully on tomorrow's pod, maybe a little
- 4:08bit of UFC little biting because I'm noticing a big slate here
- 4:12coming up on February 1st on Saturday.
- 4:14So we'll wait to get that e-mail from my buddy John Ewing, get
- 4:17some bet splits. Maybe I'll talk to my buddy
- 4:19Gamble and Loufenacaro might have a UFC play for you on
- 4:24tomorrow's pod as we steam into the weekend.
- 4:26So that being said, all college hoops, baby, let's get right to
- 4:30it. All my favorite games of the
- 4:32night. Always try to preface this by
- 4:34saying it doesn't mean bet a ton of money on this or five unit
- 4:37bomb or a Vegas Dave special note.
- 4:39It's risking one unit like any other bet, but this one looks
- 4:42pretty sharp. I'm excited to sweat this one
- 4:44with you. This is a 6:30 PM Eastern Time
- 4:46game, early tip off between Ohio State and Penn State.
- 4:50Now coming in this one, we have Ohio State 12 and 8 on the year.
- 4:54They have 1-2 in a row. Just took down Iowa 82 to 65
- 4:58covered as a 7 point home favorite.
- 5:00Meanwhile, Penn State 13 and 8, but they're kind of going the
- 5:03other way. They've dropped six of their
- 5:04last seven just came up short against Michigan.
- 5:07They lost 76 to 72. They did cover however, as an 8
- 5:111/2 point Rd. dog. So what have you seen across the
- 5:13market here will be open with Penn State around a 2 1/2 point
- 5:17home favorite. And right off the bat, that kind
- 5:19of spoke volumes to me because we have teams with similar
- 5:22records, but Ohio State's playing well.
- 5:23Penn State is not yet, of course, factoring homecourt as
- 5:27well. We have Penn State favored by,
- 5:29you know, 2 1/2 here. You know, you would assume, hey,
- 5:32maybe it's a pick em game, maybe even Ohio State is favorite, but
- 5:34no Penn State open as the favorite.
- 5:37Now, what I really like about this one is that the betting
- 5:40public is pretty much split. You're basically 5050 tickets.
- 5:43Public doesn't know whether to take the points with the
- 5:45Buckeyes or lay the points with the Nittany Lions.
- 5:48But what do we always talk about when it comes to bet splits and
- 5:51interpreting bet splits and combining?
- 5:54And the thing with bet splits is you can't take them on their
- 5:56own. You got to compare them, compare
- 5:58and contrast to what the line is doing because it's really the
- 6:01combination about the line movement and the bet splits that
- 6:04can really tell you the two, the answers to the two questions
- 6:07that I'm always asking myself. Where's the public?
- 6:09Where are the sharps? So public is basically 5050, but
- 6:13we've seen this line move further toward Penn State.
- 6:16Penn State -2 1/2 up to -3 1/2. Now, why is that notable?
- 6:20Because we talked about it quite a bit.
- 6:22But 5050 tickets line really shouldn't move at all.
- 6:25Theoretically, the odds makers have balanced action, set a good
- 6:28number. No reason to adjust it one way
- 6:30or the other. So when it's 5050, yet you see a
- 6:32line move, that tells me we got smart money hitting that team
- 6:35that's getting the line move in their favor.
- 6:38You look at the splits in particular at DraftKings, only
- 6:4154% of tickets, but 87% of dollars on Penn State and circa
- 6:4754% of bets, but 68% of dollars on Penn State.
- 6:51So 54% technically that is quote UN quote public, but that's
- 6:55basically 5050. That's like the very most
- 6:57slightest lean you're ever going to get.
- 6:59So for all intents and purposes, down the middle tickets big
- 7:02money Penn State line moving toward Penn State tells me the
- 7:06Nittany Lions are the sharp play here.
- 7:08Ken Palm does have Penn State winning only by 1.76 to 75.
- 7:14So you guys know the drill. I'm not laying 3 1/2 Penn State
- 7:17wins by 1-2 or three and I lose. So I money line Penn State.
- 7:20I got Penn State at -160 on the money line.
- 7:24Of course, shop around cuz some books are, you know, as high as
- 7:26like -170 but I really like the splits on the money line as
- 7:30well. If you look at DraftKings, only
- 7:3251% of money line bets, 60% of money line dollars at circa 50%
- 7:38bets, 90% money. So both the spread and the money
- 7:41line look really good here. Low bets, higher dollars in
- 7:44favor of Penn State. Now Penn State, couple
- 7:46advantages here. One, offensive rebounding, 31%
- 7:50versus 29%. Hopefully some extra
- 7:52possessions, more opportunities to score.
- 7:54Of course, offensive boards are very demoralizing as well.
- 7:57If you watch that Mississippi State Alabama game last night,
- 8:00Alabama had so many, I think it had 17 offensive rebounds.
- 8:04And that's not a recipe for success if you're the one giving
- 8:07up all those offensive boards. But then also free throw
- 8:10shooting. If this is a tight game,
- 8:11hopefully Penn State can knock down their charity stripe hits
- 8:1476% versus 73%. Also, Nittany Lions are just a
- 8:18classic buy low play. You know, they're on a bad skid
- 8:21here, lost, what was it, six to seven?
- 8:23Yet you look at their opponent who's 1-2 straight.
- 8:26So I want to buy low on Penn State coming back home to
- 8:28hopefully get back on track and sell high on Ohio State Home Rd.
- 8:32Obviously important when it comes to college hoops. 10 and
- 8:35two at home for Penn State. Ohio State only two and three on
- 8:38the road. And then I dialed this up in my
- 8:40database, but I was thinking about, hey, Big 10.
- 8:42Two teams in the Big 10 play each other.
- 8:45How do those home favorites do? They're winning 73% of the time
- 8:48this year. 46 and 17. By the way, our friends at
- 8:51Rhythm have Penn State -2.8. So basically tickets are split,
- 8:56big money on Penn State lines. Moving toward Penn State.
- 8:59We got Rhythm and Ken Palm saying they're going to win the
- 9:01game. We got some good stat advantages
- 9:04and we have home Rd. in our favor as well.
- 9:05So let's go Nittany Lions, let's go Penn State.
- 9:09I got Penn State to win this game.
- 9:10I got him on the money line at -160 next game for you.
- 9:15Hope you got a TV and an iPad because we got two games pretty
- 9:18much going off of the exact same time.
- 9:20There's another 630 game, Wright State and Youngstown State.
- 9:24So going into this one, we have Wright State.
- 9:27Let me just dial this up for you guys.
- 9:32Wright State on the year 11 and 11500 team, they have 1/2 of
- 9:36their last three. Just beat Detroit 67 to 50,
- 9:39covered as a 13 1/2 point home favorite.
- 9:42Meanwhile, Youngstown State, 13 and 9 on the year and they also
- 9:46won two of their last three and they just crushed Penn State.
- 9:49Chenango, I don't even know who they are.
- 9:51They beat them 112 to 63. Maybe that was a friendly game
- 9:54because I couldn't even find the line on that one, but it does
- 9:57count apparently. But anyway, looking toward the
- 10:00line movement in the betting market movement here, we open
- 10:03this game. Youngstown State very short, 1
- 10:061/2 point home favorite. And even though it's a very low
- 10:08back game, sharps have hit the home favorite.
- 10:11Youngstown State Penguins. Did you know they were the
- 10:13Penguins? Youngstown state -1 1/2 now up
- 10:16to -2 some shops even juiced up touching 2 1/2.
- 10:20So pretty clear movement in favor of Youngstown State now.
- 10:23Haven't really seen any buyback on right state.
- 10:25It's been all one way liability in favor of the home team at
- 10:29DraftKings. 73% of bets, 72% of dollars on Youngstown State.
- 10:34So again, that's not really, I don't want to be with the 73
- 10:37percent side, but it's a lower back game and it jives with the
- 10:40movement in favor of Youngstown State.
- 10:41So kind of tells me that's probably mostly sharps who have
- 10:44capped the game, who are hitting Youngstown State, not the
- 10:47betting public on a on a thirsty Thursday.
- 10:49I don't know if anyone's walking into the bar tonight and saying
- 10:51can you put Wright State, Youngstown State on?
- 10:53I don't think so. They're probably going to watch
- 10:55Ohio State, Penn State. But anyway, we have Ken Palm
- 11:00predicting young Youngstown State to win by one point.
- 11:03You guys know the drill. One point prediction here, the
- 11:06lines 2 even 2 1/2 I'm going money line.
- 11:09So I got Youngstown State on the money line at -130 DraftKings
- 11:13pretty good bet split 77% bets, 91% money line dollars on
- 11:18Youngstown State to win the game.
- 11:20And also some advantages here for Youngstown State, better
- 11:23defensive efficiency, 111 in the country versus 261 for Wright
- 11:28State and free throw shooting 72% versus 70%.
- 11:33Also in terms of effective field goal percentage defense,
- 11:36basically, you know, can you play pretty good D and make it
- 11:39difficult on the opponent? Youngstown States pretty good at
- 11:42that. 45th in the country. Wright State 221 home Rd.
- 11:47hopefully will favor Youngstown State six and three at home.
- 11:50They versus Wright State three and six on the road.
- 11:53Then you get to the Horizon League.
- 11:55Two teams in the Horizon play each other.
- 11:57That home favorite is 24 and 1169% straight up this year.
- 12:02Add in the fact that our friends at Rhythm have Youngstown State
- 12:05winning this game, or predicted to win or modeled, I guess -2.7.
- 12:10So similar to that Penn State game we just talked about.
- 12:13We got a short opener for a favorite.
- 12:15The lines move further toward the favorite.
- 12:17Good splits. Couple good stat advantages
- 12:20here. Home Rd.
- 12:22Rhythm and Ken Palm say they're going to win.
- 12:23Let's hope those guys are right. I'm on Youngstown State on the
- 12:27money line at -130 Then we got to let some time go by all the
- 12:33last three games for you. Late night matchups here.
- 12:36So let's talk a 9:30 PM Eastern Time game, Cal Poly and Cal
- 12:41State Bakersfield. So going into this one, Cal
- 12:44Poly, they've struggled. They're 7 and 14 on the year,
- 12:47just snapped A7 game losing streak.
- 12:49They beat Long Beach State 78 to 69 covered as a 6 1/2 point home
- 12:53favorite. Meanwhile, Cal State
- 12:55Bakersfield, 10 and 11 on the year, but they've rotated wins
- 12:58and losses over their last five just came up short.
- 13:01However, against UC Riverside 89 or sorry, 83 to 79, they lost
- 13:06that game outright as a one point home favorite.
- 13:08So what have we seen across the market here?
- 13:11Well, once again, pros hitting this home favorite.
- 13:14Cal State Bakersfield opened around a 2 1/2 point home
- 13:17favorite. And even though it's a very low
- 13:19bet late night game, we've seen them get steamed up all the way
- 13:22to -4 so again -2 1/2 up to -4 that's kind of a big move. 1 1/2
- 13:28points. But anyway, splits look pretty
- 13:31good on Cal State Bakersfield at DraftKings. 80% of spread bets
- 13:35but 87% of spread dollars. Again, that seems really public,
- 13:39but it's a low bet late night game so it tells me it's
- 13:42probably majority of sharp guys or gals hitting Cal State
- 13:45Bakersfield. You'll get Circa 67% spread
- 13:49bets, 74% spread dollars on Cal State Bakersfield.
- 13:53So also a good split from both books, DraftKings and Circa on
- 13:57Cal State Bakersfield. Keep on cruising.
- 14:00We have Ken Palm predicting Cal State Bakersfield to win by 4
- 14:03points. So you might say to yourself,
- 14:05hey, they're -4 Ken Palm's got them by 4.
- 14:08Once again, there's a money line play.
- 14:09It's a little expensive. I really don't like to go much
- 14:11higher than this, but looks pretty sharp to me.
- 14:14So I want to play Cal State Bakersfield, but I got them at
- 14:17-190 on the money line. Remember, whenever we money line
- 14:20short favorites, the key is to protect yourself and the chance
- 14:23that they win the game but don't cover the number.
- 14:25But always remember, whether it's money lining, short
- 14:27favorites, spread, you know, total, whatever the case may be,
- 14:31you're always betting to risk versus betting to win.
- 14:33I always want to kind of remind people of this because if you're
- 14:35betting Cal State Bakersfield money line with me tonight,
- 14:38you're not risking 1.9 units to win one unit.
- 14:41That would be betting to win. You're betting to risk every
- 14:44bet, so whatever one unit is for you, I'd recommend that would be
- 14:483% of your bankroll per play. You're just risking your one
- 14:51unit on Cal State Bakersfield at -190 that means if they win,
- 14:55you're going to get a little more than 1/2 unit back.
- 14:57So just always keep in mind because if Cal State Bakersfield
- 15:00loses this game for us, which I hope doesn't happen, you only
- 15:03want to lose 1 unit, not 1.9. The whole point is betting to
- 15:06risk versus betting to when it saves you and losses and also
- 15:09can benefit you if you play any, any dogs with plus money because
- 15:12you'll get more on the back end. But anyway, there's a money line
- 15:17play -190 for me, I love the bet split on the money line.
- 15:20At DraftKings, we have the Roadrunners getting 90% of bets,
- 15:23about 98% of money line dollars. Now, Cal State Bakersfield has
- 15:28some pretty big advantages. Offensive efficiency, 186 versus
- 15:322O3. Defensive efficiency 275 versus
- 15:36298. Those aren't the huge ones, but
- 15:38the big ones are offensive rebound percentage 35% versus
- 15:4229%. three-point shooting, 39% versus 34%.
- 15:47And another big one is home Rd. Cal Poly only two and 10 on the
- 15:51road this year. Cal State Bakersfield, seven and
- 15:54two at home. So hopefully Cal State
- 15:55Bakersfield comes to play here tonight.
- 15:58Big W home favorites again, it's just notable to me when you get
- 16:01in a conference play, is there an edge?
- 16:03Well, home favorites in the big West in conference play are 22
- 16:07and 12 this year, 65%. Our friends at Rhythm have Cal
- 16:11State Bakersfield -4.3. So again, I know you might want
- 16:16to lay the points. I hope they win by 5 or more.
- 16:18You save the juice. But I'm going to, I'm going to
- 16:21protect myself and go money line here.
- 16:22I got Bakersfield money line at -190 next one for you.
- 16:28Let's look at another West Coast Cal Cal school match up here.
- 16:32Cal State Northridge against UC Santa Barbara, the Matadors
- 16:36against the Gauchos 10:00 tonight.
- 16:39I hope you got your ESPN plus locked and loaded.
- 16:41A lot of these games are on ESPN plus tonight.
- 16:43But anyway, the Northridge matadors come in 13 and seven
- 16:47just snapped A2 game losing skid they or just had a 2
- 16:50game-winning streak going just lost to UC San Diego 79 to 54.
- 16:55Kind of the opposite. Santa Barbara had lost two
- 16:57straight. Then they just beat Cal State
- 17:00Fullerton 83 to 75. They're also 13 and seven.
- 17:04So these are two of the better teams in the big W.
- 17:07Now, what I notice here is a very sharp move toward Cal State
- 17:11Santa Barbara. Give me Santa Barbara in this
- 17:13one, guys. This game opened at basically a
- 17:15pick em. Even some shops open Northridge
- 17:17-1 and we quickly flipped all the way to Santa Barbara -2 so
- 17:23either plus one or pick em all the way to -2 So either dog to
- 17:26fave or pick em to fave. Sharp move in favor of Santa
- 17:30Barbara now late night game 10:00 it's a low bet game but if
- 17:34you look at DraftKings pretty good splits only 74% of bets but
- 17:3790% of money is on Santa Barbara.
- 17:41Now Ken Palm has a winning by 1, so you guys know the drill.
- 17:45Money line. I got money line Santa Barbara,
- 17:47the Gauchos at -128 at FanDuel, but they have a good money line
- 17:53split as well from DraftKings. 78% verse, 78% bets, 93%
- 17:59dollars. One thing I do like though is
- 18:01Rhythm has Santa Barbara -2.6. So Rhythm is a little more
- 18:05bullish here on Santa Barbara and really the big advantage
- 18:09tonight hopefully is Cal Santa Barbara just offensively scoring
- 18:13more. They are an offense efficiency
- 18:16ranking of 155 versus 176. Now that's not a huge edge, but
- 18:21listen to these numbers. Effective field goal percentage,
- 18:2455% versus 51%. Three-point shooting, 38% versus
- 18:3034%. Free throw, obviously knocked
- 18:33down your free throws in a tight game.
- 18:35Very, very important, 76% versus 71%.
- 18:39And I did notice even though, you know, kind of a lot of stats
- 18:42here benefit Santa Barbara offensively, they actually have
- 18:45the better defense as well. They're only giving up 66 points
- 18:48a game versus 71 for Northridge. And again, home Rd.
- 18:53Santa Barbara's been pretty good at home.
- 18:54They're eight and three at home this year, so 2 good teams.
- 18:58Same exact record, 13 and seven, but either pick em or dog
- 19:02opener. Santa Barbara and now Santa
- 19:04barbara's -2 so we got a good line move.
- 19:07Bunch of offensive stat advantages.
- 19:09Ken Palm and Rhythm have Santa Barbara winning this game, so
- 19:11this would be a nice one to get. Pretty short money line.
- 19:14Gauchos, Cal, Santa Barbara, I'm playing them -128 on the money
- 19:18line. Last game of the night, Oregon
- 19:21and UCLA. Now I noticed right off the bat
- 19:25that this would be a unranked home fav ranked opponent
- 19:28matchup, which would be a benefit toward UCLA.
- 19:32But UCLA open -4 1/2 the lines down to four.
- 19:35Like Oregon is 16 and 4 ranked 16th, UCLA 15 and 6 unranked.
- 19:39So the unranked versus ranked would benefit UCLA here.
- 19:43But I like unranked first ranked when the lines moving in your
- 19:46favor, when it's going against you and the lines dropping.
- 19:49Obviously pros know that little edge and they're still hitting
- 19:52Oregon. So Oregon has moved a bit, 4 1/2
- 19:54down to four. So that got me off the side.
- 19:57But what I really like is this total.
- 19:59I'm playing this over guys. Oregon, UCLA 10:30 tonight on
- 20:03Fox Sports 1 give me the over 141 1/2.
- 20:07Now this one opened at 140 1/2. It's been about up to 141 1/2.
- 20:12So we've seen a little bit of market movement toward that over
- 20:15DraftKings 87% bets, 90% money on the over.
- 20:19Circa over 90% bets in dollars on the over.
- 20:22I don't love that. You know, that tells me that,
- 20:24you know, the drunk guys at the bar like the over 2, which does
- 20:27scare me. But maybe this is a pro and Joe
- 20:29in terms of the public, but also wise guys because again, you
- 20:32know, basically odds makers aren't moving this total up
- 20:35because of the public. They're doing it because they
- 20:37took in some smart money from respected betters that hit that
- 20:40over. Now it's not a huge edge.
- 20:42Ken Palms got a 141 rhythm as a 141.4.
- 20:46But a couple things that I like. One, it's a short spread and
- 20:49it's dropping toward the dog. So, you know, again, UCLA -4 and
- 20:54half down to four, moving toward Oregon, four and half to four.
- 20:57So short spread, hopefully competitive game, back and
- 21:00forth. You get scoring, maybe it's
- 21:02tight and you get fouling at the end.
- 21:04I always like an over ideally on a short spread versus an under
- 21:07on a big spread. But then I'm digging into a lot
- 21:09of these stat categories. And you have some pretty good
- 21:12offenses on both sides. You look at Oregon, they're
- 21:15averaging 78 points a game. UCLA is averaging 76 points a
- 21:19game. Offensive efficiency.
- 21:22UCLA is 55 in the country, Oregon is 32.
- 21:25So both basically top 55 in the country.
- 21:28Effective field goal percentage, They're both around 53%
- 21:31three-point shooting. They're both 34% free throw
- 21:35shooting. Oregon 76% UCLA, 71% offensive
- 21:39rebound percentage, 31% Oregon, 33% UCLA.
- 21:44So both teams can score, they can shoot the three, they can
- 21:47knock down their free throws, they grab a bunch of offensive
- 21:50boards, extra possessions, put backs.
- 21:53Tells me with a short spread getting shorter that we could
- 21:56have a recipe here for hopefully this total to go over the
- 21:59number. Now basically the whole market
- 22:02is 141 1/2. But always remember and be sure
- 22:05to shop for the best juice because I saw a couple books
- 22:07that were 141 1/2 / -, 115, but I found ESPN bet over 141 1/2 at
- 22:15-105. So it might not make a huge
- 22:17difference. But if you can consistently have
- 22:19those multiple outs, shop around and save $0.05 of juice here or
- 22:23there. That can really, you know,
- 22:25extrapolate to saving multiple units over the course of a full
- 22:28year. So I'm room for points.
- 22:30Ducks, Bruins 10:30 Tonight I got Oregon UCLA over 141 1/2.
- 22:37So Penn State, Youngstown State, Bakersfield, and Santa Barbara.
- 22:41Let's hope they all win and let's play that over Oregon UCLA
- 22:45141 1/2. So that about does it for
- 22:48episode 2 O nine of the all systems go sports betting
- 22:51podcast powered by rhythm all college hoops.
- 22:53What do you think? Also get the NHLI could have
- 22:56squeezed out an NHL play. Probably could have added an NBA
- 22:59play, but I'm loving college hoops.
- 23:01So let's try to maximize our edge.
- 23:03Old mentor of mine always said if you have an edge, try to
- 23:05maximize the edge. So let's hope we have a good
- 23:08college tonight. Let's try to get three or more.
- 23:10So with that being said, as always, going to start wrapping
- 23:13up the pod here with a few things.
- 23:14First, a thank you, a thank you to you out there listening.
- 23:17I appreciate so much the fact that you guys tune in each day,
- 23:20win, lose or draw and pull up a chair to the virtual bar.
- 23:23So that's some sharp betting breakdowns with me.
- 23:26And if that is the case and you enjoy the pod, could you do me a
- 23:29big favor? Could you please give this
- 23:31podcast a five star review? If you're listening on Spotify
- 23:34or iTunes, just go to rate and review, click the five stars.
- 23:37It would mean a lot to me. Help us to continue to grow the
- 23:40pod and if you want to recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is
- 23:43great. If you want to click the follow
- 23:44button, iTunes or Spotify. That way once it drops each day,
- 23:48it'll go right to your inbox or your library.
- 23:50That'll be great as well. Secondly, if you enjoy this
- 23:54style of betting breakdown, you enjoy now trying to read the
- 23:57market, beat the market. You're almost like a like a
- 24:00private investigator trying to figure out where is the smart
- 24:03money? Where's the where's the public?
- 24:05You know where? Where can I find system matches?
- 24:07If this style of betting has appealed to you and you want to
- 24:10learn more about data-driven betting or you want to let me
- 24:12know you appreciate the POD, guess what?
- 24:15I wrote a book all about data-driven betting.
- 24:17You can just go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide
- 24:20to Sports Betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
- 24:23friend. And once again, it's got
- 24:25everything I've learned in the industry.
- 24:26How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
- 24:29movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go contrarian,
- 24:33how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best
- 24:35line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
- 24:38All included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 24:41So pick one up, bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you, and
- 24:44I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
- 24:46together next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
- 24:49day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
- 24:52Well, if you haven't, what the heck are you doing?
- 24:54Go download those apps from the App Store or the Google Play
- 24:57store and they will help you to hopefully cash some tickets and
- 25:01make sharper bets. I use Rhythm for their AI backed
- 25:04models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 25:07You might have noticed or you know, heard if you've tuned into
- 25:09any of the live streams that I do.
- 25:11Again, I'm capping based on my market approach.
- 25:14And then my last step is let's go to Rhythm and see what they
- 25:16have. And I always like it when rhythm
- 25:18is kind of with me. If they're against me, then I
- 25:20know, hey, maybe I got a maybe got to reassess this game, but
- 25:24then also with juice reel fantastic for if you just want
- 25:27to tail the robo Jackson best bet picks.
- 25:30If you want to support the pod, you can sign up to get the all
- 25:33systems go best bet picks that it will be posted on on juice
- 25:36reel. You can just go to the social
- 25:38tab and click find juicers and search ASG under score podcast.
- 25:43We also get those arbitrage plays everyday if you want to
- 25:46grind out some some small profits, basically free money if
- 25:50you can put in the work. And then also the sharp mush
- 25:52indicators as well as shopping for the best line for futures.
- 25:55That's always a benefit to Juice Reel as well.
- 25:58So download Juice Reel, download Rhythm, give them a five star
- 26:01review, tell a friend and you'll be off and running.
- 26:04Lastly, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 26:09River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods
- 26:11or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
- 26:14Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
- 26:17neck of the woods in Massachusetts route in the
- 26:19desert or the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his
- 26:22number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
- 26:25South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
- 26:28stadium swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
- 26:31Circa, you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show
- 26:34me UNC Asheville, UNC Greensboro or a beautiful robbing the bank
- 26:40and getting away with it. There was we needed one last
- 26:42bucket and we got it. UNLV Utah State that over 145 or
- 26:46146 1/2 landed right 147. That was beautiful to see.
- 26:51But flash me one of those tickets.
- 26:52First one's on me, next one's on you.
- 26:54We're going to post about the book sweat sharp contrarian
- 26:57place all night long. So wish you the best luck
- 26:59everyone. Reminder 3 and one, one and
- 27:02three, three and OO and three, two and one, one and two.
- 27:05Doesn't matter how you perform the previous day.
- 27:07It's always next bet mentality, long term approach, making bets
- 27:11with our head and not our heart. If we can continue to stick to
- 27:14that blueprint against the public, with the house, with the
- 27:17pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
- 27:20If we can do that long term, and I'm confident that we can then
- 27:23guess what we're going to be successful sports bettors.
- 27:26So have a great Thursday night, everybody.
- 27:28Reminder, I will be joining my buddy Patrick Maher and Dustin
- 27:31Swielson as I do every Thursday night at 8:00 on SiriusXM.
- 27:36So hope to see you guys there. And then I'll be right back at
- 27:39it tomorrow to hopefully finish up our week on a hot note.
- 27:42That'll be episode 210 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 27:46podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
- 27:49great Thursday night.