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Episode 27 - 4/19/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 27 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:33
Happy Friday, the weekend is upon us.
0:36
We're now inside of a week away from the NFL draft as we talked
0:40
about quite a few draft bets, prop bets yesterday on
0:44
yesterday's pod episode 26. You can go back to it yesterday
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if you want to get a recap here or wait until Monday, 'cause I'm
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expecting to add some more prop bets as we get down to the wire
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here for the NFL Draft. But looking toward today, guys,
0:56
we got a big podcast on a Friday before we steam into the
0:59
weekend. Also on the eve of the NNHL and
1:03
the NBA playoffs here. I can't wait.
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As a Celtics and and Bruins fan, I can tell you I'm lucky to have
1:09
both teams in the playoffs here. But I am going to talk about
1:12
some series bets. This goes out to my guy Joe on
1:14
Twitter at Mr. Mattress Mon. I don't know if it's Mattress
1:18
Max alias here, but my guy Joe has been tweeting me and saying,
1:22
hey, what are your series bets? And again, I love betting series
1:25
prices because it allows you to hopefully get a good number
1:28
before a series starts. Then you have a rooting interest
1:30
throughout the series and then maybe either let it ride and
1:33
hopefully you win or you hedge it.
1:34
You give yourself some opportunities here.
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But to me, it's all about betting it early if you feel
1:38
like a line is a little bit off or you're getting some good
1:40
value. So I do have for you 2 series
1:43
bets, one in the NHL and one in the NBA.
1:46
And then for today's sweats, a big seven pack, guys.
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I got five Major League Baseball bets for you as well as two bets
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in the NBA. But we're not going side, We're
1:55
not going total. We're going to the player prop
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department. Thanks to our friends at rhythm
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who powered this pot and do a great job with their AI backed
2:03
models with their both game bets and with props.
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I got two players here that we're going to target for points
2:08
and rebounds and points, rebounds and assists for
2:11
tonight's match ups here. So hopefully, hopefully our guy
2:13
Bogdanovich cashed the other night.
2:15
Gives us a little a little juice, little mojo going into
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tonight. Now looking back toward
2:19
yesterday, O and one only had one bet Minnesota Wild couldn't
2:23
come through for us, had a one. Nothing leading made it
2:26
interesting there at the end, but came up short a little bit
2:28
annoyed because the Cubs game got postponed.
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I love the Cubbies. We got a great number there and
2:32
great CLV, but that game was rained out.
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So O and 1 - 1 unit. But but but but you may have had
2:38
a winning day because earlier in the day before the pod got
2:41
released. I always want to mention check
2:42
out my Twitter account at Josh under Score Insights because I
2:45
write sports betting articles for vesan.com and there were two
2:48
bets that I highlighted in my daily article for Vesan which
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both cashed. So the new the almost said New
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York Rangers. See I got hockey on the mind.
2:56
My guy Charlie C's got hockey on the mind too.
2:58
But the Texas Rangers that was a back and forth game lighter.
3:02
I got called up and got lit up and the Texas Rangers kept
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getting out to leads 4 nothing and then it was 4 to 4 then
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seven to four and it was 77 but luckily they scored a couple
3:12
runs late. Got a win there with the Texas
3:14
Rangers dog to fave line move with a good bet split and also
3:17
the Cleveland Guardians betting against my Red Sox.
3:19
Guardians came through with a nice dog to fave winner as well.
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So if you play those two early ones you had a winning day 2 and
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1 + 0.82 units. So going into today as I
3:28
mentioned, a lot to get to on a big Friday.
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No UFC. Unfortunately the next round of
3:33
fighting doesn't take place here until the 27th, which I must
3:37
tell you guys on the weekend, not this weekend but next
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weekend. It is my buddy's bachelor party.
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So for his bachelor party, we rented a cabin in the woods in
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upstate New Hampshire. And we are going to bet a lot of
3:49
UFC because there's a huge card UFC Fight Night, Nikolao versus
3:53
Perez. And then we also looked at the
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schedule on both the Celtics and the Bruins play on Saturday.
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So Saturday we're going to be loaded up, locked and loaded.
4:02
We we're we're getting a ton of adult beverages, other things,
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food we're going to grill. I'm super excited for this a
4:08
weekend away with my boys who I grew up with.
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So my buddy fed getting married. Now we're going to send them off
4:13
on a high note. But I can't wait till that
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Saturday because we have Bruins, Celtics and then we have biting
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all night long. So I'm going to give you a
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locked and loaded biting set of plays for next week in which I'm
4:24
counting down and so am I, so are my friends.
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So cannot wait for that bachelor party to sweat games with the
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boys, grill, chill and thrill. What's better than that?
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I don't think anything. But anyway, guys looking toward
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today, as I mentioned, 7 pack five MLB two NBA player props
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here as well as couple series price bets.
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So let's get right into it. Waste no time, let's talk some
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Major League Baseball because I'm looking at the board today
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and I'm seeing quite a bit of value here.
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So let's start off with an early game and I'm going to bet
4:51
against once again, my Boston Red Sox.
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Give me for tonight the Pittsburgh buckles.
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I'm going with the Pirates guys. 6:40 PM Eastern Time game.
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Now the pitching match up here we have Brian Baio, who I am
5:02
high on long term, one of the Sox young studs here on the
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mound, two and one 3.92 ERA. He'll be opposed by Quinn
5:09
Priester or Priester now. He's making his 2024 debut, but
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he went three and three, 7.74 ERA in 2023.
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That doesn't give you much, much confidence there and price
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there. But I'm gonna trust the market
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here and I'm gonna bet against the Red Sox.
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So I'm going with the Buckos shop round.
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I got the Bucks. Pittsburgh Pirates here around
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-110 -, 115. I'm seeing one shop that's a
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little bit higher, closer to -120 we're seeing some good late
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movement here in favor of Pittsburgh.
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Now. This was basically a pick em
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game. It was around -110 both sides
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very short -110 - 115 for Pittsburgh.
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Now we're seeing them creep up -115 -, 120.
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And what I really like about this play on the Pirates is that
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on the one hand, they're short favorite.
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And we're going to get to a lot of system matches here on
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Pittsburgh. I got, I got Pittsburgh lit up
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as a system match play here tonight, but also a reverse line
5:58
move. Public's still on the Red Sox.
6:00
I can tell you these aren't, these aren't the Red Sox I grew
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up with breaking the curse and winning World Series.
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This is a, this is a bunch of minor leaguers and I'm going to
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give you the line up here in a second, which is just pathetic.
6:11
But anyway, Publix on Red Sox because they remember the Red
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Sox being a good team, winning. Well, I can tell you they're not
6:16
that anymore. And they're kind of down on the
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Pirates. Even though the Pirates are off
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to a good start this year. You're also buying low on the
6:21
Pirates because they did lose three straight.
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They're coming off a sweep against the Mets where we were
6:26
able to capitalize on at least one or two of those where we
6:28
played the Mets and they came through.
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But here's what I like about Pittsburgh, A little bit of line
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movement, you know, very short -110 -, 115 Price.
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But in terms of system matches, favorite off a loss, there's
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been a great angle here. Buckos, having just lost to the
6:42
Mets, Favorites off a loss are now 76 and 4165% this year with
6:47
a 10% ROI. Also are short favorites -130 or
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less. That's a match on Pittsburgh.
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Those teams are 72 and 5159% this year with an 8% ROI.
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And then a rest advantage. Why is this the rest advantage?
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Because the Pittsburgh Pirates were off yesterday.
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Meanwhile, the Red Sox played yesterday and lost.
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So Pittsburgh had a day off their feet, get their position
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players, an extra day of rest, their starting pitcher, their
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their bullpen, they're rested and ready to go.
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While the Red Sox had a bad homestand.
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I think they went three and seven at Fenway and now they're
7:17
on the road and they are in a tough spot and a back-to-back.
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So that rest was tired. Teams who are favored coming off
7:24
a day off versus A-Team who played the previous day.
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It's 4:00 and 1:00 to start this year, 80%, closer to around 60%
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around the last four or five years.
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Also interleague favorite, lack of familiarity, benefiting,
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quote UN quote. The better team, which would be
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Pittsburgh based on the favorite designation.
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The bats. I'm going to lean on
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Pittsburgh's bats, 13244 versus 224.
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And then I was hinting at this a second ago, but the Red Sox have
7:49
no Raphael Devers, who continues to be banged up.
7:51
And they also have no Tyler O'Neill, Tyler O'Neill
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endeavors. They're two best hitters.
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So if they're if you look at their line up, and this goes to
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show you how disgruntled us Red Sox fans are because John Henry,
8:02
who bought the team for like 500 million and now it's worth like
8:04
5 billion, refuses to spend any money.
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And their starting line up in yesterday's game, every player
8:11
was making less than $1,000,000 except I think Reese Maguire
8:15
makes 1.5. But here's their line up
8:17
tonight. Jaron Duran, Willier Abreu, Ref
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Snyder, Tristan Casas, Connor Wong, Yoshida, Dalbeck, Valdez
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and Rafaela. I mean, this is a, this is a AAA
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lineup. So I'm going to bank on
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hopefully Pittsburgh coming through for tonight at a pretty
8:30
decent price at home. I'm on the Buckos shop round.
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I got the Pirates at -110 keep on cruising.
8:37
Let's go to the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Let's go Phills tonight, 6:40 PM Eastern Time.
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This one goes out to my buddy James Santor, who is one of the
8:45
masterminds at Rhythm and a big Philly fan.
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I think he's going to the game tomorrow.
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He mentioned to me, I texted him today and I said, hey, I'm on
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your Phill's Bigley tonight and he said, oh, I wish I was going.
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I got tickets for tomorrow, but hopefully Phillies can win this
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one. Couple things like about this.
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First off, the pitching match up.
9:00
Chicago White Sox, who are just three and 15, just lost two of
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three against the Royals. Phillies 11:00 and 8:00 just
9:07
swept the Rockies. But we have Chicago going with
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Garrett Crochet. I don't think it's crotchet.
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I think it's Garrett Crochet one and two 3.57 ERA.
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Philly's going to go with Spencer Turnbull, the righty one
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and O 1.8 O ERA. So he's been pretty good here to
9:21
start. Big reason to bet Philly.
9:23
Big sharp steam move. The Phillies actually open as
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low as -165 they got bet up to -175 When I wrote about this
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article for vson.com, I got them at -175 well, good thing here
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they're closer up to -180 now. Not great if you didn't bet it
9:37
yet, but a good sign that they continue to get hit by smart
9:39
money. We're getting around 90% of bets
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and dollars. Once again, that is a public
9:44
percentage. But baseball, I don't worry too
9:46
much about public betting because it's not as heavily bet
9:48
a sport. But aside from this big steam
9:50
move, a lot of advantages here. First, offensively, Philly is
9:54
hitting 237 with 21 home runs. You look at the White Sox,
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they're hitting 196 with 10 home runs.
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So much better offense for the Phills.
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Phillies also are hitting 260 against lefties.
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That's the 7th best in Major League Baseball.
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Phillies have the better pitching staff.
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Team ERA 3.56 versus 4.46 system matches lot here on Philly.
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First off is a interleague favorite off a win.
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Phillies 21 and 13 into league favorites off a win, 62% this
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year. That is right at their
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historical norm, 244 and one, 4962% since the start of last
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year. Both teams coming off a day off.
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Take the favorite. Remember that system?
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That's 452 and two, 7562% since 2020.
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And we have a classic favorite low total.
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So total in this one is 7 1/2. I think there's a lot of early
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money that got that under. I want to say it open as high as
10:44
8 1/2 or 8, but low total fewer amount of expected run scored
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more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
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So I'm going to Phills guys. I got Philly at -175 now they're
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as high as -180 across the market.
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Next bet for you. Let's go Cincinnati Red legs,
11:00
baby. Let's go Reds.
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I'm on the Reds tonight. The Reds are at home against the
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angels pitching match up here. So a little background first
11:07
Angels nine and 10 split A4 game series against the rays.
11:11
The Reds, meanwhile, just got swept by the Mariners.
11:13
We had them and I think in the last game there on the pod.
11:16
But anyway, you'll get the pitching match up.
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Tyler Anderson actually been pretty good two and one 1.47 ERA
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for the Halos. However, the southpaw for
11:24
Cincinnati, Nick Lodolo one and O 0.00 ERA.
11:28
He's been good to start the year.
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But why am I going? Cincy good sharp steam move on
11:33
the Reds. Reds open as low as -125.
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Reds are now up to -135 and I see one job even inching up
11:40
toward -140 now. This is notable because the Reds
11:43
are only getting around 63% of bets, so it's not like a 90%
11:47
play. It's not that public yet.
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We're seeing this big steam on Cincinnati tells me we got smart
11:51
money going with the Reds here, which I want to be a part of
11:54
now. Favorites off a loss.
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Very simple system, but it would match with the Reds here today
11:59
as they lost their last game. That's 76 and 4165% this year
12:03
with a 10% ROI. Also rest first tired Reds were
12:07
off yesterday. Angels played the Rays then had
12:09
to had to travel. Reds interleague favorite, lack
12:12
of familiarity benefiting the better team.
12:14
That would also match on Cincinnati as it just matched on
12:17
Philly or sorry, on Pittsburgh, which you talked about and
12:20
Philly interleague favorites off or actually, yeah, that would
12:24
match as well. Didn't match with Pittsburgh.
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They were off a loss, but you get what I'm saying.
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Interleague favorite, but also run differential.
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Cincy plus 10 LA -6. I'm going with the red legs
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here, guys. I love that steam move -125 to
12:37
-135 give me Cincy. I got a -, 135.
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Now you're looking 135 or -140 Keep on cruising.
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I'm a Red Sox fan, but I'm going.
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With the Yankees tonight, let's go Yankees.
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I'm on the Yankees here. They're at home against Tampa
12:53
Bay. Love this steam toward the
12:55
Yankees. Get that in a second.
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The little background. The Rays 11:00 and 9:00 on the
12:58
year split that four-game set against the Angels.
13:01
Yankees 13 and six. They did drop two or three
13:04
against the Jays. Probably would have lost the the
13:06
last game came back late with Judge and a couple other guys
13:09
and got a win there. But really this one's all about
13:12
1 the pitching match up. Tyler Alexander is going for
13:16
Tampa Bay one and O but a 6.46 ERA.
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He's he's got to go to the short porch and right at Yankee
13:22
Stadium. He'll be opposed now by Clark
13:25
Schmidt one and O 3.68 ERA. Schmidt's been pretty good and
13:29
really to me the Yankees play based on this big steam move.
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Yankees opened around a -, 155 home favorite.
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Yankees are now all the way up to round -175 S good sharp steam
13:40
in their favor. They're getting around 80% of
13:43
bets in dollars. So both public support and
13:45
respected sharp action. Rest first tired advantage for
13:48
the Yankees. They were off yesterday, raised
13:50
played the Angels and have to travel New York.
13:52
I'm going to lean on their bats. They're hitting 247 versus 241
13:56
for Tampa Bay and better pitching staff. 3.11 ERA versus
13:59
4.74. Also going up against a lefty
14:02
and Alexander, the Yankees are hitting 252 against lefties.
14:06
That's 10th best in Major League Baseball and really the bullpen
14:09
in particular. This is very unlike a Tampa Bay
14:12
team, but Tampa Bay, did you guys know this?
14:13
They have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball.
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Their bullpen ERA is 6. Yankees are fourth best at 2.63
14:21
Yankees plus 20IN run differential.
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Tampa Bay -17 So we got a good sharp steam move, couple good
14:27
system matches, rest first tire I'm.
14:29
Going Yankees. I got the Yankees at -175 then
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last part of the night for me, this thing kept dropping,
14:36
dropping, dropping. And now it's like flipping dog
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to favorite. And I said this thing is so
14:40
sharp, I got to be a part of it. Toronto and San Diego is a 9:40
14:45
PM Eastern Time game, late night game pitching match up here we
14:48
have Yariel Rodriguez going for Toronto O one O 2.45 ERA.
14:52
He'll be opposed by Matt Waldron O 113.14 ERA.
14:57
But guys, this is all about the line move toward the Jays.
15:01
Going with Toronto here. Guys.
15:02
Did you guys see this line move? It opened with San Diego listed
15:05
as high as -120 even -130 at some shops.
15:09
Now it's pretty much down to a pick em.
15:11
And a lot of books are hopping the fence to now make the Jays
15:14
of favorites. You're seeing now the Jays, I
15:16
see some books -110 -, 112 -, 115 toward Toronto.
15:22
So there's got to be a lot of respect to money on Toronto to
15:24
cause this line to move in their favor.
15:26
And I love the fact that the public's actually on San Diego.
15:29
San Diego is getting upwards of nearly 70% of bets, not only 33%
15:35
of bets around Toronto. And if only 1/3 of bets around
15:37
Toronto, why is this line continue to steam in Toronto's
15:40
favor? Tells me we got smart money on
15:42
the Jays. You look at system matches.
15:44
Now that the Jays are favored, they would match favored off a
15:47
loss. 76 and 4165% this year. Rd. favorites 61 and 3166% this
15:55
year. Both had the day off.
15:56
Take the favorite 62%, short favorites -130 or less 59%.
16:02
And all these RO is return on investments are like 8%, sixteen
16:06
percent, 12%. They're all lighting up on
16:08
Toronto. And that would also match as
16:11
long as it holds true with hopefully Toronto remaining a
16:13
favorite interleague favorite. So that would match as well on
16:17
the Jays. So again, looks like wise guys
16:19
have identified Toronto and I want to be with that sharp steam
16:22
move on the Jays. I don't know why they like it,
16:24
but they do. That's enough for me.
16:25
So I'm going Jays guys, shop around.
16:28
You can maybe still find the Jays like -1 O 5 - 1 O 8.
16:32
Some books are as high as I, as I mentioned is closer to -115
16:35
but shop around. I got the Jays at -110 So our
16:39
five pack here can be at three or more Pirates, Phillies, Reds,
16:44
Yankees and the Jays. Now over to some NBA for
16:49
tonight. Now, both NBA games are a bit
16:51
complicated because you have star players missing.
16:53
No Jimmy Butler for the Heat, no Zion Williamson for the
16:57
Pelicans. And both are very, very short
16:59
numbers here. So I was looking at a couple of
17:01
them #1 Bulls, Heat, that totals falling and falling and falling.
17:05
Two O 9 1/2 down to two O 6 1/2 has moved a little bit toward
17:08
the Bulls. Bulls, at one point we're
17:10
getting 2 1/2. Now they're down to 1 1/2.
17:13
So if you tell me like the under, you tell me like the
17:15
Bulls, not going to argue with you.
17:16
But here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to go to the player.
17:19
Props for this game. I'm going to focus on a
17:21
particular player who hopefully will have a big game because
17:24
he's starting in place of the injured Jimmy Butler.
17:27
So who is that player, the pride of UCLA?
17:31
Jaime Hakez Junior, the guy with the long hair.
17:34
I remember when I had long hair in high school.
17:36
Sadly, I didn't. I no longer have that long hair.
17:39
But anyway, Bulls in heat. I'm going to go with Jaime Hakez
17:42
Junior, and I'm going to target Jaime Hakez Junior in his
17:46
combined points and rebounds. So Hakez Junior over 17 1/2
17:51
points in rebounds. It's -130 you might be able to
17:54
shop around and find a better price -110 or -115 -, 120.
17:59
But what I like about Hami Hawk is over 17 1/2 points and
18:02
rebounds. This would be a combo play.
18:04
So if you're on your sports book quick, you know player props,
18:06
then combos. But number one, Rhythm is
18:09
projecting his points and rebounds at 18.9.
18:12
So it's not a massive discrepancy.
18:14
But over 17 1/2 Rhythm is projecting 18.9.
18:17
That's nearly a point and a half of of actual value or an edge.
18:22
But really what I'm banking on for Hawkez is not just the
18:24
rhythm edge, but also going up against Chicago.
18:28
They're the 19th ranked defensive efficiency team.
18:30
They just gave up 116 to Atlanta.
18:32
So they don't play great defense.
18:34
And with no Jimmy Butler, Hawkez is probably going to play a lot
18:37
tonight. I I believe he's starting.
18:39
I'm actually pretty sure he's starting.
18:40
I don't know if this pollster said it, you know, take it in
18:44
stone, but a lot of projections have him starting and he's
18:46
probably going to play a lot of minutes now.
18:48
If you look at Jaime Hawkez junior, he has scored 15 or more
18:52
points in three straight games. And in four games against the
18:55
the Bulls this year he had 18 points, 5 rebounds, 23 combined,
19:01
22 points, 4 rebounds, 26 combined, 19.3 rebounds, 21
19:05
combined. And the first game of the year,
19:07
remember Hawkins is a rookie. So this was way back in, I don't
19:10
know, November, December, he had 6.6 points, 3 rebounds, that's
19:14
nine. So he, you know, he would have
19:15
gone under that number, but 15 or more points in three
19:19
straight, again, he's grabbed rebounds.
19:21
I was even considering maybe his points, rebounds and assists.
19:23
I think that was 21 1/2. But Rhythm in particular
19:27
targeted him with points and rebounds.
19:30
So over 17 1/2 for Jaime Hawkins junior.
19:34
That's what I'm riding with. Can you get us 18 or more
19:37
combined points and rebounds? That's what we are banking on.
19:40
Again, Rhythm projecting 18.9. So I'm going with Jaime Hawkins
19:44
Junior over 17 1/2 points and rebounds at -130 now to the
19:49
Kings and the Pelicans. One thing that's surprising to
19:52
me about this game, one, the total is absolutely tanked.
19:55
It was 218 1/2 Zions hurts down to 211.
19:59
The other angle is everyone's betting the Kings and I get it.
20:02
No Zion bet the Kings. Makes sense, right?
20:04
Pelicans lost their first game. Kings won and beat the beat the
20:07
Dubs. But if you look at the market
20:10
here, guys, when you had a healthy Zion, it was like -1 1/2
20:14
Pelicans. When he got hurt it flipped all
20:16
the way to -2 1/2 Kings. But we're now starting to see
20:19
the Pelicans go back to -1 So I'm like intrigued by the
20:22
Pelicans. They're a really good contrarian
20:25
play. They're only getting like 20% of
20:27
bets and the Lions coming back in their favor.
20:29
But I said, hey, I've seen this movie before.
20:31
It's the exact same spot that they were in against the Lakers
20:34
as a one point favorite. Very conturian.
20:36
So I said, hey, let's stick to our our rhythm prop bets.
20:39
So I found one for you. Harrison Barnes.
20:43
Harrison Barnes over 19 1/2 PRA points, rebounds and assists now
20:50
19 1/2 points rebounds, assists over.
20:52
So we need 20 or more. First thing I noticed in the
20:54
betting market is it's juiced up at DraftKings.
20:56
It's 19 1/2 PRA over at -118 -, 120.
21:01
Now he has gone over this number in four straight games in his in
21:06
the game against Golden State, he had 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3
21:10
assists. So that is what, 24?
21:13
And if you look at April 11th, these teams actually just
21:17
played, you know, that was only what, 8 days ago?
21:19
Pretty much a week ago he had 22 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists
21:23
against New Orleans. Now Rhythm is projecting 14.3
21:27
points and 3.3 rebounds. So if you look at you add those
21:32
two numbers up, I know this isn't an exact science, but that
21:34
would be 17.6 with his points and rebounds.
21:38
And then you add in a couple assists, boom, you go in your
21:41
you go over your 19 1/2 points, rebounds, assists.
21:44
But to me, Harrison Barnes is a guy that the betting market is
21:47
juicing up to the over. He's had good results
21:49
specifically against this team. He plays a ton of minutes.
21:52
He's almost like a forgotten guy.
21:53
I know Sabonis and Darren Fox obviously get a lot of attention
21:56
here, but he's a veteran player. He's been in the league forever.
21:59
He's made a lot of money. He's only 31 years old, I
22:02
believe. But I'm banking on Harrison
22:04
Barnes specifically in the match up against the Pelicans, who
22:07
will be without Zion and maybe a little bit a little bit easier
22:10
to to, I don't know, kind of attack offensively without Zion,
22:15
kind of, you know, playing defensively.
22:17
But rhythm again, didn't have this specifically.
22:19
Like they don't have a projection of like 21.3 bonds
22:22
assists. But I'm kind of piercing it
22:24
together a little bit based on their projections, what the
22:26
betting market is doing and hopefully looking at a a game
22:30
here where where Barnes can really do some damage,
22:33
especially down low. So I'm going Harrison Barnes
22:36
over 19 1/2 PRA points, rebounds and assists got that at -118
22:41
along with Jaime Hakez over 17 1/2 Pete just points and
22:45
rebounds at -130. Now to finish up the pod, let's
22:49
talk a couple things here. First, I want to talk about some
22:52
series bets because again, my guy Joe said, hey, I need some
22:56
series bets and I'm I'm right there with you man.
22:58
So I have a couple for you. The first one that I have for
23:01
you is in the NBA and it is a fade the trendy dog, and it is
23:06
the Cleveland Cavs. I have the Cavs.
23:08
I'm taking the Cavs at -180 to beat the Orlando Magic and win
23:13
that series. The first thing that jumped out
23:15
to me was the Cleveland Cavs. I got a fresh batch of data from
23:18
my buddy John Ewing at Bet MGM, who was a fantastic follow on
23:20
Twitter, by the way. A lot of people ask me about
23:23
kind of because he works for Bet MGM.
23:25
He's just a great guy we used to work together for when we were
23:29
used to work with Bet Labs and Sports Insights.
23:31
But anyway, he tweeted this out and I got an e-mail from him
23:35
about it. The series price bets with both
23:39
bets and dollars. The Cleveland Cavs are only
23:41
getting 34% of bets to win the series, but 82% of the money to
23:47
win the series. So that is a massive, massive
23:49
low bets, higher dollars bets split.
23:51
Basically you flip it the other way, nearly 70% of bets are
23:54
going magic at a plus money price to win the series.
23:57
But Cleveland to me #1 they have homecourt.
24:00
Their first game is coming up tomorrow and they're favored by
24:02
4 1/2. Also more of a kind of a veteran
24:06
team. The Magic obviously are on the
24:08
rise, but they're very young. It's kind of their first go
24:10
around here in the postseason. Whereas Cleveland, Donovan
24:13
Mitchell, Garland, the big guys down low.
24:17
Struce had a lot of experience with Miami in the postseason.
24:20
You have homecourt, you have the experience as a veteran team,
24:23
and you have a great bet split and a fade, the trendy dog
24:26
scenario. So I'm going Cleveland Cavs to
24:28
win this series against the magic again, only 34% bets, but
24:33
82% money. Let's go Cavs at -180 then one
24:37
more series bet for you. NHLI admit I didn't get a fresh
24:40
batch of data in the NHL because it's kind of a little bit late
24:44
and you still had some games last night.
24:46
So not a lot of full series prices have, you know,
24:49
registered a ton of action, but this one near and dear to my
24:53
heart. You can call it a.
24:53
Homa play. Yeah, Homa.
24:55
Yeah. You're just taking the Bruins
24:56
because you're a Bruins. Fan, I am a Bruins fan.
24:59
Die hard, cannot wait for tomorrow night, but I'm going to
25:02
take the Bruins to beat the Leafs.
25:04
Now, it's not totally a home a pick, but there's a couple
25:07
things I like about the Bruins. One, the price is only -125
25:11
against the Leafs. But why am I taking the Bruins?
25:14
Couple things. One, they have owned.
25:15
Well, let's start off with this. They have home ice.
25:18
You know, if I'm on a serious price, I want a team that's got
25:20
home ice, homecourt, you know, home field and baseball.
25:23
That means of seven game series, you're going to get game seven.
25:26
You're going to get four games overall in your home building
25:29
hockey. That's huge 'cause you get the
25:30
last ice change. But aside from home ice, it's
25:34
really to me about the goaltending and the defense.
25:36
The Boston Bruins have a 2.7 O goals against as a team, Toronto
25:40
3.18. I've seen Sampson off whoever
25:43
else they got Jones, that kid Wall.
25:46
This is not a very good defensive team.
25:47
Now they have great firepower offensively.
25:50
No one's no one's questioning that Matthews what you know,
25:55
Marner all these guys Tavares, Nealander, but also the history
25:59
Bruins, Leafs, the Bruins have all the Leafs knock on wood,
26:02
last three series they've all won hasn't been easy.
26:05
Seven took seven games with Bruins.
26:06
I remember the year Bergeron, Bergeron, Bergeron when they
26:10
came back from three goal deficit in the third period.
26:14
But the Bruins, they're not flashy, but they're the much
26:16
better defensive team, much better goaltending and they have
26:19
home ice and the price is only -125 S again, I don't have the
26:23
data for that. I didn't get it in time for
26:24
today's pod, but at -125 with all those factors in in their
26:28
favour, I'm going bees to win the series at -125 now to finish
26:34
up the pod here guys, a little bit of housekeeping before we
26:36
steam into the weekend. First off, if you enjoy this
26:40
pod, if this pod has helped you to become a sharper better, if
26:43
you now look at betting a little bit differently, you're not
26:46
betting with your with your heart, you're betting with your
26:48
head. You're looking at data line
26:49
movement, system matches, betting splits, you're
26:52
flatbedding, you're not parlaying.
26:54
Whatever the case may be, maybe you enjoy the breakdowns each
26:57
day you look forward to them. First off, thank you.
26:59
That means so much to you guys. You know, pull up a chair to the
27:02
virtual bar with me every day. It means so much to be can sit
27:05
around and talk games and break them down from a sharp
27:07
data-driven perspective, contrarian perspective.
27:10
So First off, thank you. Secondly, can you help me to
27:13
grow this podcast? If you are listening on Spotify
27:16
or on iTunes, can you please give this a five star review?
27:21
That would mean a lot to me. It would help us to rise up the
27:23
rankings. It really just helps the pod
27:25
grow. So give it five stars.
27:27
Secondly, if you enjoy the pod and you want to learn more about
27:30
data-driven, sharp contrarian betting and guess what, I got
27:32
something for you. All you got to do is go to
27:34
Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to sports
27:38
betting. That's my baby.
27:39
That's the book that I wrote. It's got everything I've learned
27:41
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
27:44
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
27:46
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
27:49
how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
27:52
the Everything guide to sports betting.
27:53
So pick up a copy for you or for a friend or a family member or
27:57
somebody in a newly legalized state who wants to get in on
27:59
betting and has no freaking clue how to start.
28:02
Well, you can start by defining your bankroll, set up a bankroll
28:05
management plan and learn to read the market.
28:07
That's how you can start. But seriously, if you want to
28:09
buy my book or already have, thank you, I really appreciate
28:12
it. First one's on me, next one's on
28:14
you. Actually, you know what?
28:15
You bought the book. They're all on me until we get
28:17
too drunk and get get shut off at the bar.
28:20
But anyway, guys, lastly, I mentioned Rhythm earlier today,
28:22
but Rhythm is so awesome. Helped us cash our Bogdanovich
28:26
play the other day, but Rhythm also, I got to get more into
28:29
golf and Rhythm is making me get into golf here because Rhythm
28:32
just introduced the AI Caddy. That's right, the AI Caddy is
28:36
the ultimate companion for dissecting every hole and
28:39
unlocking the most promising live betting opportunities.
28:42
This thing's unbelievable. The AI Caddy literally will
28:44
project the next hole. What the guy's going to do, You
28:47
know, birdie, you know, bogey eagle, whatever it may be, par.
28:52
But if you're a golf person and you're looking for data backed
28:55
AI pics, Rhythm is the place to do it.
28:58
Obviously Rhythm has all the other sports included, which
29:01
we've been talking a lot about in the NBA.
29:03
But I want you to give Rhythm a shot.
29:04
All you have to do is go sign up via the link in my latest tweet.
29:08
So I tweeted about the AI caddy. Clicked that link, custom link
29:11
within my tweet or the description is listed in the
29:15
Spotify bio for the each episode.
29:18
Or you can just go to at Josh under score insights, my Twitter
29:21
page, give it a follow and the pinned tweet as well.
29:24
Click that custom link to sign up for rhythm.
29:26
It's important you click that so that they know that I refer to
29:28
you. And again, if you do that,
29:30
you're going to start making sharp AI data-driven back picks.
29:34
But that about does it everyone. Another pod here in the books on
29:37
a big Friday as we steam into the weekend reminder.
29:40
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River and
29:43
Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan,
29:46
Sun Town in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
29:49
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
29:52
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
29:54
true grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
29:56
number runners. Where the lowest juice possible
29:58
is found at the South Point. Or Sweat and Sharp can train
30:01
plays at Circa, jumping in the stadium swim pool when he catch
30:04
a big bet. Get getting a Victory Burger at
30:07
the end of the night, wherever it may be.
30:08
You're going to walk up to me the wild let us down.
30:10
Hopefully you're on the Rangers or the guardians earlier
30:13
yesterday in MLB couple of nice hits there but that about does
30:17
it everyone have a fantastic weekend.
30:19
Remember no pod on the weekend. That will change when football
30:21
comes back. I'll give you I got a lot of big
30:23
plans for for football season in the podcast.
30:26
Maybe some live pods at the encore.
30:28
What do you think? But I am going to leave you with
30:33
this. You can check out over the
30:35
weekend my sharp reports that are right for beeson.com.
30:38
So I'll give you a couple, you know, three MLB bets each day
30:41
taking in sharp money and I'll be back at it on Monday for
30:44
episode 28 of the All Systems Gopod.
30:47
But that about does it everyone. My parting words as always, stay
30:49
sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
30:52
yourself on the side of the house.
30:53
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:56
Will smart money one every time? Of course not.
30:58
Again, sports betting is hard. Have you realized that yet?
31:01
Just look at Minnesota. You know, last night -145 they
31:04
closed -180 we beat the closing line, got a -, 170, we lost
31:08
Minnesota. That's going to happen.
31:09
But here's the thing, over the course of the long haul, smart
31:12
money, smart money is going to win a majority of the time.
31:14
So never lose that forest amongst the trees perspective.
31:18
And if we can bypass the games that have red flags and get down
31:21
on the games that check off our boxes against the public, with
31:24
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get some
31:28
CLV. If we can do that, we're going
31:29
to be successful sports bettors. So have a great weekend
31:32
everyone. Again, it all starts this
31:34
weekend. Play offs, nothing better play
31:37
offs. You talking play offs just
31:39
trying to win a game Anyway, we got play offs coming back.
31:42
And we also have the NFL draft less than a week away.
31:45
So stay tuned for more prop bets on next week's pods.
31:49
But enjoy the sweats everyone. Have a great Friday, have a
31:51
great weekend. Be back out on Monday for
31:53
episode 28 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod.
31:57
Good luck and have a great day.