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FDD Morning Brief SITREP | The stakes behind the Iran ceasefire · FDD Morning Brief

0:11
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, good morning.
0:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It's Friday, April 10th, the Multifront War in the Middle East is now 916 days old.
0:18
[SPEAKER_01]: That Pakistan brokered sea spire with Iran.
0:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's hanging on by a thread.
0:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't know how long it's going to last for folks, but we're going to try to understand it today.
0:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm your host, Jonathan Shanzer.
0:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Welcome back, yet again, to the FDD morning brief.
0:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We're doubling down this Friday with hopefully two guests.
0:35
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got my colleague, Lieutenant Colonel
0:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Both are repeat offenders on the show, but a quick recap, Jonathan is a senior fellow FDD former IDF spokesman with 24 years of services to combat commander in Israel, the IDF, in Lebanon and Gaza.
0:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Bradheads are center on military and political power, a former military aviator who's seen action in Afghanistan and action on Capitol Hill.
1:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know where he's sustained more fire.
1:02
[SPEAKER_01]: But in any way, these two are some of the sharpest military minds in the biz,
1:07
[SPEAKER_01]: We're trying to find Conrique right now, full disclosure.
1:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Seems you have gone a while or track it him down.
1:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We're hoping to bring both guys on just a few minutes after a very brief news roundup.
1:19
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, headline one, there was a pretty big hit yesterday in Lebanon.
1:23
[SPEAKER_01]: The IDF said it eliminated his bullet chief nine costumes personal secretary in a strike near Beirut.
1:29
[SPEAKER_01]: That guy's name was Ali Yusuf Harshi.
1:31
[SPEAKER_01]: He's one of Customs Advisors.
1:35
[SPEAKER_01]: and he was said to have played a central role running his uncles office.
1:39
[SPEAKER_01]: We just say this nine costumes believe to be a bumbling idiot among those that I'd talk to within the Israeli military and intelligence circles.
1:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So they're not looking to kill him.
1:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think they're looking to kill the smart people around him.
1:54
[SPEAKER_01]: meantime, massive waves of attack against his Bala yesterday, the Israeli's kept carried out like hundreds of strikes within just a few short minutes.
2:04
[SPEAKER_01]: They're what the intent there really was shock and awe and there's a lot of exciting stuff happening there.
2:11
[SPEAKER_01]: headline two, this is the exciting stuff.
2:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And this one's big, Lebanese Prime Minister in O'awf Salam said that Beirut is not going to let any government negotiate for a ceasefire on its behalf.
2:24
[SPEAKER_01]: His remarks are really not subtle at all.
2:26
[SPEAKER_01]: They are directed at Tehran.
2:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Tehran has said that they are not going to move forward with a ceasefire unless the fighting stops in Lebanon.
2:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And now you got the Lebanese government saying, don't you dare.
2:37
[SPEAKER_01]: This you don't speak for us.
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And they are now saying that they want to engage directly
2:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Under the cover of negotiations with the United States here in Washington at the state department This is really I mean this is fascinating right the Lebanese government is never talked to the Israeli government not directly in fact There's a law against Lebanese people speaking to Israeli people right anti normalization laws So even by just doing this
3:06
[SPEAKER_01]: in Washington.
3:08
[SPEAKER_01]: You've got the Lebanese negotiators violating Lebanese law in order to circumvent the Islamic Republic from dominating what happens on the battlefield or the negotiating table.
3:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Really remarkable, hoping we see some good progress there.
3:24
[SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be interesting to see whether the Israelis stop their attacks in order to allow this to happen or use the tax in order to gain more leverage, I don't know.
3:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, headline three, the Trump administration is reportedly considering moving troops out of NATO countries after several of them hamstrung American efforts in a run.
3:44
[SPEAKER_01]: A administration official say that Washington might also close an overseas base potentially in Spain or Germany.
3:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Look, I got to tell you here.
3:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I am deeply uncomfortable with all of this.
3:53
[SPEAKER_01]: NATO is incredibly important.
3:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm sure you'll hear Brad talk about that momentarily, but we should not be just spurning these alliances.
4:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I understand they're not being helpful right now, but alliance has taken a long time to build.
4:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It could take a short amount of time to eviscerate them and then you don't have anything left.
4:10
[SPEAKER_01]: That is a problem and I think we need to solve it.
4:14
[SPEAKER_01]: NATO is absolutely problematic.
4:17
[SPEAKER_01]: There are members of NATO that probably shouldn't be there.
4:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we need a restructuring, not a destruction of this alliance.
4:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Headline, for Ron continues to strangle the straight-of-form moves, citing a senior Iranian source, Russian media reported that Iran won a lot more than 15 ships to pass through the straight-of-form moves per day, seems like this regime is just itching for more attacks.
4:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And let me just tell you,
4:38
[SPEAKER_01]: like we keep hearing about how they may be charging people going through the street of poor moves.
4:43
[SPEAKER_01]: That does not sound like a good thing either.
4:45
[SPEAKER_01]: It sounds like a violation of everything that Donald Trump called for when we started this ceasefire just a few days ago.
4:51
[SPEAKER_01]: But yes, there will be discussions coming up.
4:54
[SPEAKER_01]: either today, most likely tomorrow in Islamabad, they're going to be led by JD Vance Vice President in the United States.
5:01
[SPEAKER_01]: This is, I think the biggest negotiation that this guy has ever led, doesn't have a lot of experience in doing this.
5:08
[SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be flanked by Stephen Whitcroff, who is really doing a lot of back and forth, kind of shuddling for the president.
5:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I guess alongside JD Vance, in terms of seniority, you've got Jared Kushner,
5:22
[SPEAKER_01]: who I think knows quite a bit about what's going on in the region, but he's actually not a representative of the United States government.
5:28
[SPEAKER_01]: He represents himself.
5:30
[SPEAKER_01]: He's a private sector individual.
5:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So there are some really interesting dynamics there, unclear why Marco Rubio's not there.
5:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And let me just say, I have said this before, the the Pakistanis by sitting at that table.
5:43
[SPEAKER_01]: They are representing not just themselves, they're not just trying to bridge the gap between the Islamic Republic and the United States.
5:51
[SPEAKER_01]: They're also representing to some extent, the Chinese government, they're representing to some extent, the Saudi government.
5:59
[SPEAKER_01]: U.S. unclear whether they're looking out for Israeli interests or anybody else's for that matter.
6:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is really just about opening the straight of horror moves.
6:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's it.
6:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And you got the Islamic Republic digging in right now saying that they don't plan on cooperating.
6:17
[SPEAKER_01]: They don't plan on opening the straight.
6:19
[SPEAKER_01]: They're talking a big game right now.
6:21
[SPEAKER_01]: We're waiting to see whether they can bridge the gap.
6:24
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know whether that's possible because the rhetoric is so far apart right now.
6:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's worth noting, but let's fingers cross that we get to some kind of an understanding that allows for the free flow of energy.
6:37
[SPEAKER_01]: That is the president's primary goal.
6:39
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, with that ladies and jerks, it is time to bring on our guests.
6:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's probably going to be one right now.
6:45
[SPEAKER_01]: We're hoping that Jonathan Conrique
6:55
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, it's just Brad and we're going to take it.
6:59
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not a consolation.
7:00
[SPEAKER_01]: This is a big honor, so thank you.
7:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for coming back.
7:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for being a repeat offender, Brad Bowman.
7:06
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, I want to start with this.
7:09
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of talking right now about who won.
7:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
7:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Ow, winning is, it's, I guess, relative, right?
7:18
[SPEAKER_01]: There is the question of success, and then there's the question of winning.
7:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think those are very distinct.
7:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Those are two different things.
7:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So, maybe just tell us for a minute about what is going on.
7:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, heirs, Jonathan Comriekis.
7:29
[SPEAKER_01]: My man, he's made it.
7:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for, uh, thanks for dropping in.
7:33
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, so we got Jonathan Comriekis here as well.
7:35
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to get to you in a minute, Jonathan, talking to Brad Grovers about, uh, who's winning?
7:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And in Iran, or is it something else?
7:47
[SPEAKER_00]: John, it's great to join you.
7:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for the opportunity to come back.
7:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'd great to see my friend, John Conriquec as well.
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, good policy, I've said this for years.
7:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe that when I was in the army and I believed it on the Senate, and I continue to believe it.
8:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, good policy and good outcomes start with an objective assessment of reality.
8:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And we can expect leaders to sometimes demonstrate
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Access some creativity, that's a diplomatic word for spinning or a line in how they characterize battlefield outcomes, especially when you're on the verge of negotiations, right everyone's trying to put themselves in the best possible position for the negotiations.
8:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Frankly, I would expect these lawmakers revolve around to engage in a bad God Bob level of spinning.
8:30
[SPEAKER_00]: That's that shout out for the older members of the audience in terms of denying reality and declaring
8:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But if we're honest, and I always try to be honest, we'll get a little bit of spin from some podiums in Washington as well, not turn on level, but some spin.
8:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So, but yeah, I think for one is going to be a serious strategist, a serious military analyst, you got to call it like you see it.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, here it are, it have to be our team, our center of military, political power.
8:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We really dug into the military details throughout this conflict.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and here's where I come down, John.
9:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say, uh, kind of echoing some of what I said last time when I was on with John Johnson Conoricus, the U.S. and Israeli militarys have conducted incredibly impressive combined military operations against these lawmaker Pulveron, uh, that have severely degraded.
9:22
[SPEAKER_00]: and but yet not fully destroyed major components of these laminate pulverons, military capabilities, and it's going to take them in some cases years to reconstitute some of those capabilities, what you could do and capacities, how much of it you can do.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: The Ronnie military is seriously much weaker, and that's good for the U.S. good for Israel, good for the region.
9:45
[SPEAKER_00]: However, here comes the however you knew that was coming Iran now as as your prelude said has an extraordinary degree of control over the straight.
9:54
[SPEAKER_00]: The United States I think we have to say and it pains me to say it as a patriotic Americans looking surprisingly weak to some and dealing with the reality in the straight.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we are potentially transitioning from the battlefield of negotiating table where Americans have been dupped before.
10:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And where I do worry that this administration might agree to a deal that doesn't fully secure American interests.
10:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So I can talk about missiles, drones, navy, mines, command and control, air defense, nuclear and each of those, where we're at after this war if you like, but I'll take a breath there, John.
10:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, good.
10:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I always have always a good idea to take a breath.
10:29
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, look, let's do the quick breakdown.
10:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if you can give us, I don't know, two or three minutes of like, you know, what is the BDA as we call the battle damage assessment of all of those major assets of the Islamic Republic because look, I do think you're right.
10:44
[SPEAKER_01]: They did wage this asymmetric economic war.
10:47
[SPEAKER_01]: They've got the upper hand as it relates to straight-of-four moves.
10:50
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say by the way, we haven't really challenged them on straight-of-four moves.
10:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So in other words, we just decided not really like back once they began to shut things down.
10:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I think probably for fear of losing assets or getting drawn into a war that would be longer and more painful and more complicated because that's of course something that the president wants to try to avoid.
11:13
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, the U.S. hasn't even contested this right now, and I think that is a problem, and that's why some people are saying that the Iranians have bested us.
11:21
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's get to that other assessment, because I do think the regime, as I think the technical term, is they've been relaxed on many fronts, right?
11:29
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's talk about those fronts where there is real damage to a sass.
11:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay sounds good job.
11:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Go through one by one.
11:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll try to make it quick, but also substantive some missiles.
11:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So, first of all, let me say this.
11:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, how do you measure success?
11:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, you measure success in military by your state of objectives.
11:47
[SPEAKER_00]: What were the state of objectives?
11:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command, articulated early what he called quote, well-defined and clear military objectives.
11:56
[SPEAKER_00]: What were they?
11:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Eliminating Iran's missile drone and naval capabilities.
12:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And those objectives were reiterated by General Kane, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and he also added destruction of Iran's defense and dust database.
12:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's look at each of those.
12:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So missile missiles.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So according to General Kane, U.S. Central Command, and obviously Vizreli's played a major role throughout all of this, but Central Command struck over 150 ballistic missile storage facilities.
12:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And he went on to describe Iran's and missile industrial base as quote shattered.
12:31
[SPEAKER_00]: But then he said more than 80% of the regime, missiles, the regime's missile facilities were gone.
12:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So 80% really impressive number, you can, you know, glass half full half empty, 20% are not gone.
12:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and but he did also talk about their ability to prove solid rock motor.
12:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's missile.
12:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And so what and as we all know, we had a dramatic reduction, a wonderful reduction in the daily launch, launch rate of missiles, but Iran continued to demonstrate ability launch missiles.
13:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be at a lower rate throughout the conflict.
13:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And there is some uncertainty, both with missiles and drones and other elements, what is destroyed.
13:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Whenever you hear someone talking, listen carefully not only to the percentages, but the phrase is destroyed, degraded, buried.
13:18
[SPEAKER_00]: These things are all very different because that which is degraded can be repaired.
13:22
[SPEAKER_00]: that which is buried sometimes can be uncovered.
13:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So the, um, the, um, I'll move on to drones.
13:28
[SPEAKER_00]: There's more to say on, on missiles, but I'll move on to drones.
13:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So St. Com said we struck roughly 800 one way attack drones storage facilities.
13:37
[SPEAKER_00]: can also state that every, every, a strong word, factory that produce sheet, a shahed one way attack drones was struck.
13:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's really interesting, but US intelligence officials recently estimated that last week, the up to half of Iran's drone arsenal may have survived.
13:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's interesting, I would also note that UAE said that they were partly a fart over 200,000 of these drones at them alone.
14:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and we know that drones are easier to hide, they're easier to launch.
14:09
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't need the infrastructure, the launchers that you do with missiles.
14:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So, as I've predicted from the beginning, drones are continuing to be a problem.
14:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving quickly onto Navy and mines.
14:18
[SPEAKER_00]: But way of hands, you don't care when teens, you don't care, but there is one thing I really want to jump in on this.
14:23
[SPEAKER_01]: There is the short range rockets and missiles that we haven't really talked about a whole lot here.
14:29
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, when we talk about the drones and we talked about the ballistic missiles, there is that large arsenal of the short range stuff that continues to hammer.
14:38
[SPEAKER_01]: are gulfed allies, these energy-sucing countries that is like, it's the background music of all this, it's this kind of chaos, this constant percussion that we're that we're hearing and watching and that's the stuff that at least design or stand, there aren't a lot of answers for it.
14:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I just want to make note of that because you got the ballistic missiles and they're really trying to degrade that long distance those, you know, the weapons that are like a size of a bus that are hurtling across the entirety of the Middle East.
15:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you've got these other smaller things, which I think we don't talk about as much, but they are having an impact on the region and giving one a sense that the Islamic Republic is still on the offensive.
15:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, okay.
15:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, John, I think you're so right to jump in on there and I'll just jump in on your jumping and then finish those last categories if it makes sense to you.
15:26
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, I mean, it's more than four years after Putin launched his unprovoked aggression in Ukraine.
15:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And we've seen the world's first major war fought on both sides with drones.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully, no one was surprised about the role that drones have played in this conflict, both in what we've seen in the straight and in terms of tax on our troops.
15:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And of course, the most deadly strike on U.S. forces in Kuwait was done with a drone, and hitting American troops who are in a, basically, a travel trailer, if you will, a totally unprotected.
15:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So our, our golf partners for sure.
15:59
[SPEAKER_00]: But for my perspective, most importantly, U.S. troops have paid a dear price for drones, and that's why in part, we have Ukrainians, our great Ukrainian partners in the Middle East trying to help us around Gulf partners.
16:09
[SPEAKER_00]: He's stronger when it comes to counter drones.
16:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And let me also add that General Kane said in his briefing earlier this week that the United States and our Gulf partners intercepted 1,700 missiles and drones.
16:23
[SPEAKER_00]: That's impressive.
16:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But think about the quantity of interceptors' munitions it requires to intercept that.
16:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's why we have to be sprinting to reconstitute that capability because America has to also be ready for what might happen in the first island chain, the Pacific, Europe, Korean Peninsula and elsewhere.
16:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, Navy mines, 90% of Iran's regular fleet.
16:45
[SPEAKER_00]: has been sunk, 90% really impressive, but we've heard that the Iranian Navy is destroyed.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, 90% is impressive, but it's not destroyed, and the point is underscored when you also see that he said half of all the IRGC Navy's small attack boats are not destroyed.
17:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So Iran still has half of its small tax votes.
17:06
[SPEAKER_00]: How do they use those?
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They use those way for it.
17:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Way for it to attack commercial shipping in places like the Strait of Hormuz and to lay minds and to launch attacks.
17:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, speaking of minds, how many minds do they have?
17:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency in 2019 Iran possess roughly
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: 5,000 Naval mines, Cain says we've destroyed 95% of them.
17:27
[SPEAKER_00]: That means they might have around 200 mines left.
17:30
[SPEAKER_00]: My goodness, you can do a lot of damage in the straight with 200 mines.
17:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Command and Control, we all know that you have in the firepower's great, but you've got to be able to command and control it.
17:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Cain says it's been devastated more than 2,000 Command and Control nodes destroyed, he says.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Yet, we've seen them be able to
17:47
[SPEAKER_00]: continue to conduct some operations.
17:49
[SPEAKER_00]: That might be because it's not fully destroyed or because they pushed authority down the lower levels.
17:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It's been seen with air to plant.
17:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, glad.
17:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, I mean, I think we're starting to get the picture here, so it's already to step on your toes here.
18:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to make sure we bring Jonathan in.
18:03
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think what we're basically hearing you say here is that, okay, we've done a lot of damage, but the fact that we're not zero.
18:12
[SPEAKER_01]: on missiles.
18:13
[SPEAKER_01]: The fact that we're not zero on drones, or the fact that we're not zero on mines, or all of these things, right?
18:21
[SPEAKER_01]: As long as the Islamic Republic continues to believe that it has a mandate to continue to fight.
18:28
[SPEAKER_01]: They refuse to surrender.
18:30
[SPEAKER_01]: They refuse to capitulate.
18:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to see this.
18:33
[SPEAKER_01]: This is actually just about the tenacity of the Islamic Republic.
18:37
[SPEAKER_01]: under any other circumstance, probably in any other period in war, a defeat like this would lead to surrender, but we don't live in an age of surrender, we don't live in an age of capitulation, certainly not with ideological regimes like the Islamic Republic, and I do think that that has a lot to do with what's going on here.
18:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to get back to you in a minute, Brad, but I want to bring Jonathan into the onto the program.
19:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Thanks for showing up, Jonathan.
19:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I know you were Russian from somewhere, probably some undisclosed location doing things that we're not allowed to ask you about or you'll kill us.
19:08
[SPEAKER_01]: But okay, let's get to what's going on in Lebanon right now.
19:12
[SPEAKER_01]: You guys were kind of witness to this unbelievable wave of strikes that the Israelis just carried out.
19:20
[SPEAKER_01]: across Lebanon right in intense wave of strikes.
19:25
[SPEAKER_01]: So what is happened over the last couple of days?
19:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to get to the political stuff in a minute, but from a military perspective, what are the Israelis looking to do as they get this pause in the fighting with the Islamic Republic?
19:38
[SPEAKER_01]: They've pivoted back to the north of their country.
19:42
[SPEAKER_01]: What are they doing?
19:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
19:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Shalom.
19:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Sorry for not being on time.
19:47
[SPEAKER_02]: It was far less glamorous than what you depicted, the iPhone froze, and didn't cooperate, and I finally jumped started it, and then I was able to join back.
19:59
[SPEAKER_02]: So I wish it was something more glamorous this time could isn't.
20:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe I wouldn't tell if it were, but this is actually the truth.
20:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, just go ahead.
20:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if I give you a story,
20:11
[SPEAKER_02]: As my good friend Brad said, there's been a company from everywhere we don't need to add to it here on the on fdding but to the point so from it is really perspective the operation that is well conducted the day and a half ago massive targeting and you could almost use unprecedented in terms of scope.
20:34
[SPEAKER_02]: diversity of targets and the short time frame we're talking about less than an hour, very short time frame of almost 100 targets that were struck simultaneously different types of targets we're talking personnel, underground infrastructure, buildings, command and control, electronics, weapons and a few moving targets as well all of those simultaneously based on a lot of
21:01
[SPEAKER_02]: And, of course, we cannot, you know, detach things from the political context here at the negotiations, the debate, Pakistan Iran claiming that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire as well in the U.S. saying, very clearly, no, it wasn't.
21:26
[SPEAKER_02]: One of the few areas where I think there is significant success, strategic speaking is in the we overall weakening of the Iranian axis of aggressors and their ability to project force and their ability to deter Israeli decision makers.
21:44
[SPEAKER_02]: What Israel is adamant about, and I think, you know, if you look at polls in Israel, you have almost unanimous historical consensus in Israel.
21:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Left, center, and right, that Israel needs to pursue fighting against his Bala, and his will needs to push on in order to degrade his Bala's capabilities to such an extent, that there will be significant military political change in Lebanon.
22:13
[SPEAKER_02]: And I connect this point to your previous conversation with Brake and Brake so correctly said, you know, it's success really is the term and really by the goals that you defined.
22:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think based on the goals that were defined, which were modest and limited,
22:31
[SPEAKER_02]: They were not overarching, they were not vague, they were pretty clear.
22:34
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think they were relatively achievable, US and Israel against Iran, nuclear ballistic missiles, production capabilities, and their ability to support terror infrastructure around the Middle East.
22:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Most of those I think were achieved, but when you look at the continuum here, if we zoom out a little bit and we look at, you know, from October 7, and on Tim today,
22:58
[SPEAKER_02]: And when I try to be positive and adapt a glass half full kind of mentality, which is challenging, I'm not happy with the ceasefire.
23:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not happy that the Iranian regime is still around.
23:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm not happy that they have residual strategic capabilities, that they can still project force, that they are still gleeful and arrogant, and that they've used their heaviest tool, their heaviest weapon, which was to close the straightened home moves.
23:27
[SPEAKER_02]: And currently,
23:28
[SPEAKER_02]: deeply annoying and not good, not good for the US, not good for Israel, not good for the future of the region, but when we look at if I zoom out and I look at things strategically and put things on a more of a timeline perspective, this is a good development in terms of scaling back Eurigen aggression, this is a good development of taking or defying or significantly weakening
23:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I will say that, you know, I know there's a lot of concern about, well, did, you know, did we win?
24:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Did the US and Israel come together and actually walk out with a victory?
24:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think if you look at it from a black and white perspective like that, I think it's not going to be satisfying.
24:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, you're not going to see surrender, you're not going to see to a visualization.
24:15
[SPEAKER_01]: But even you can see that when you look at the relative strength of Iran and its entire proxy network,
24:21
[SPEAKER_01]: from when this whole thing started on October 7th of 2023.
24:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And you look at where we are now.
24:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Things are a heck of a lot better across the board.
24:30
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, I probably can't point to one actor from that Iranian alliance that is stronger than it was.
24:38
[SPEAKER_01]: when this thing began.
24:40
[SPEAKER_01]: You might say that maybe the hoothies have an indigenous missile capability now, but they're not using it the way that they were and I'm not sure if they have the same leadership structure.
24:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think it maybe comes out as a wash.
24:52
[SPEAKER_01]: But all right, let's get to the, you mentioned the strongest proxy.
24:55
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the thing that's in the news right now that I think people don't fully get.
25:00
[SPEAKER_01]: You have no loss to the prime minister of Lebanon coming out and openly saying, we are not letting Iran
25:07
[SPEAKER_01]: negotiate on our behalf.
25:09
[SPEAKER_01]: More importantly, we're going to start negotiating directly with the United States and Israel.
25:14
[SPEAKER_01]: We want our own agreement.
25:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, it doesn't mean that they're saying all these wonderful things.
25:18
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not like they're, you know, they're not like the promoter, the promoter's Zionism at the UN right now.
25:23
[SPEAKER_01]: That is not what's happening.
25:24
[SPEAKER_01]: They're still condemning the attacks and they're demanding a halt.
25:27
[SPEAKER_01]: But they're also saying that they're willing to recognize Israel.
25:32
[SPEAKER_01]: and that they're willing to start to take the right steps necessary for the dismantling of his bullet.
25:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, my question to you is after this call up and all the logistics and the weapons and the munitions and the energy resources, all the things that have just been done, the calling up of tens of thousands of Israelis into Southern Lebanon, the deployment of those forces, the attacks that we've started to see can and should
26:01
[SPEAKER_01]: On the other side of this, you have the potential for some kind of mutual recognition, normalization, whatever you want to call it, right, with Lebanon.
26:11
[SPEAKER_01]: This would be historic.
26:12
[SPEAKER_01]: The question I have is, I mean, can the Lebanese armed forces do this?
26:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Is this worth the chance that Israel would have to take in order to get there?
26:22
[SPEAKER_01]: This is not an easy thing for the Israeli
26:26
[SPEAKER_02]: No, it isn't, and we are about half a year from elections in Israel, which is also an important part of the calculation here, and I'll add to what I think is a very success to think the framing of events that you provided,
26:49
[SPEAKER_02]: between 600 and 800,000 Lebanese villagers, almost all of them sheights have been told to evacuate that most have evacuated, is what is doing serious groundwork, earthwork, earthwork, moving, and really reshaping the border area.
27:07
[SPEAKER_02]: in a way that will be more permissible for the security of Israeli civilians in Israeli communities.
27:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, based on the lessons, the hard lessons that Israel has learned from October 7 and onwards, basically not having a line of sight, a clear line of sight and line of fire between a
27:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Lebanese so-called civilian house, which of course is used by Fisbalah as a military fighting position to fire ballistic, to fire anti-tank missiles or otherwise, and Israeli civilians.
27:37
[SPEAKER_02]: And creating this buffer zone and basically flatening and reshaping a lot of what's happening there.
27:44
[SPEAKER_02]: That's one thing.
27:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And
27:46
[SPEAKER_02]: This is important because there's a lot of pressure now that Israel is applying through military terms, through kinetic operations, on the Lebanese leadership, saying, we are okay with, you know, pursuing, we're happy to entertain and trying to explore the positive things of this army of his vala through negotiations and negotiating peace with Lebanon.
28:10
[SPEAKER_02]: we're for it.
28:11
[SPEAKER_02]: There's appetite for it.
28:12
[SPEAKER_02]: There's, by the way, public sentiment in Israel, is very much lined up behind that as well.
28:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And I would say that it's something that I think would be, it's a low-hanging fruit on almost all aspects, but for the existence of Fisbalah.
28:33
[SPEAKER_02]: in the multiplication here, they have the possibility to really ruin everything by their merit existence.
28:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Now here's beyond the challenges that you spoke about, something else that is complex.
28:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Israel is saying, okay, we're willing to go to negotiate, but the Lebanese are saying, well, we can't negotiate while you are partling Lebanon.
28:53
[SPEAKER_02]: And Israel says, okay, that makes sense, we can hold off, but who's firing on his rate of civilians?
28:59
[SPEAKER_02]: He's balak.
29:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Chisbala is firing on Israeli civilians.
29:02
[SPEAKER_02]: They obviously do not have any interest in the state of Lebanon negotiating with this well.
29:08
[SPEAKER_02]: And therefore, I think the highest likelihood is that we will see Chisbala sustained fire.
29:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Yesterday they fired in 200 kilometers long range rockets towards Ashdoto.
29:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what Israelis are going to have to start hunting for.
29:23
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the stuff it's in the north of the country that they have not started targeting yet.
29:30
[SPEAKER_01]: and the PGMs.
29:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, sorry, just to summarize in terms of Kisbala, what Israel will I think try to do?
29:40
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's a very tall order is to apply military pressure, which will be translated military and social and economic pressure.
29:49
[SPEAKER_02]: on the Lebanese state, in order to incentivize the Lebanese state to do what they have not done yet.
29:57
[SPEAKER_02]: They have been, they've started to say that they're going to take action against this ballot, out of their own interest and out of serving their own national interest and country, which is great, but they haven't really done anything.
30:11
[SPEAKER_02]: And what is well is now focusing on is applying pressure,
30:14
[SPEAKER_02]: degrading his balance military capabilities, applying pressure on Lebanon.
30:18
[SPEAKER_02]: If you ask me if they can do it, no.
30:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think that the Lebanese state, the Lebanese military has the leadership, nor the metal, and the combat spirit to actually confront a heavily armed and very ideologically strong adversary.
30:34
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to have to be done by other means.
30:37
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think Israel, the US, France, the Lebanese state should definitely pursue with economic means.
30:43
[SPEAKER_02]: We are political means, with sanctions.
30:45
[SPEAKER_02]: All of that should be a, and what I think is missing is a coalition.
30:49
[SPEAKER_01]: A coalition.
30:50
[SPEAKER_01]: No, you need the international pressure, right?
30:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think that is what's missing.
30:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And hopefully that's what we get out of the United States when you have these two sides coming to the State Department.
30:59
[SPEAKER_01]: sitting down.
31:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think, by the way, though, regardless of what anybody says, the fact that Lebanese and Israelis are going to be sitting down directly with one another and having these conversations, you think is in and of itself a positive, I think he's really using the pressure that it can for as long as it can, I do think that there will be a moment where Israel gets caught in the middle of the negotiations, the political side of this.
31:20
[SPEAKER_01]: and it may need to curb some of its military mobilization.
31:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I am concerned about that.
31:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to just ask you as we round up your guys, and this has been a terrific conversation.
31:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to ask each of you to just tell me about a metric or two that you're tracking right now, as we head into this complex military and political.
31:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is like a gory and not as we're heading into this with Pakistan, with Israel, with the United States, with the Saudis, with the Gulf States, with energy, all of these things are happening.
31:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, how are we to understand if you're looking at this, what are the things that you're either prioritizing or watching for as a kind of a key indicator of success or failure?
31:59
[SPEAKER_01]: So Brad, we'll start with you.
32:01
[SPEAKER_01]: We'll end up with end with Jonathan and then we'll roll on
32:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks, John.
32:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Great insights by John from there.
32:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I would just add that the US has extraordinary leverage over Lebanon and we haven't always used it.
32:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's remember that the US has provided significant funding to the Lebanese armed forces for years.
32:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And there were conditions associated with that funding that often worked in force.
32:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So now's a moment.
32:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say for the United States to use the leverage it has 11 on to take advantage of this really historic news that you were reporting on first comment second military.
32:32
[SPEAKER_00]: The last two things I didn't mention were air defense and nuclear.
32:38
[SPEAKER_00]: We only according to came, you only hit 80% of Iran's air defense systems.
32:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So we did not destroy Iran's air defense systems.
32:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Only 80% on the nuclear, according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, we hit nearly 80%.
32:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Not 180% of Iran's nuclear industrial base was hit.
32:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And those are kind of two core elements of our state's objectives.
32:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So I just say that, what am I watching going forward?
33:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm watching three quick things.
33:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll do this in one minute or less, John, Russia and China.
33:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Russia agreed to a deal with Iran in December according to the financial times and rotors to provide those man-portable air defense systems to Iran.
33:16
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not supposed to deliver until 2027, but Russia is ready to help Iran reconstitute its military capabilities.
33:23
[SPEAKER_00]: It's done a lot in the past with satellites and other things you got to watch.
33:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Russia, you got to watch China in the sodium per chlorate shipments that are
33:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It is not an exaggeration to say that some of the missiles that have been launched in this conflict have been guided by Russian intelligence and have been fueled by Chinese chemical.
33:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So watch that.
33:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Pakistan.
33:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm an Afghanistan veteran.
33:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Pakistan is what we call a frenemy.
33:49
[SPEAKER_00]: The harbored bin Laden, a harbored terrorist that we're doing roadside bombs against US troops in Afghanistan, watch Pakistan's role here.
33:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't trust them, and I think we should be real careful with them.
34:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Negotiations, I was National Security Advisors Senator Kelly A. out during the bomb of the ears and the jikpo and all of that.
34:06
[SPEAKER_00]: They were just focused, they foolishly just focused on the nuclear, and they set aside the ballistic missiles essentially to support for terrorism.
34:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And that one, depending on how you measured it, took about three years.
34:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The corn negotiations took several months.
34:25
[SPEAKER_00]: This is when you're doing something that's so much more complicated, we are hopefully addressing nuclear, ballistic missile, terrorism, and the straight.
34:33
[SPEAKER_00]: This is going to be difficult at gunplacts.
34:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And core American nationality interest.
34:36
[SPEAKER_00]: This regime will not
34:39
[SPEAKER_00]: concede on those.
34:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So we have to be prepared for military operations to resume because I I got a bridge in New York.
34:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll sell you if you think they're going to agree to what we need on those four in those four areas.
34:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not buying that break.
34:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay.
34:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, Brad Bowman.
34:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Jonathan, can we get us last word to you?
34:56
[SPEAKER_01]: What are you looking for right now from the Israeli perspective as all this plays out?
35:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's a lot to look at, but I will focus on a very few things.
35:06
[SPEAKER_02]: So one, the alliance between Fisbala and Iran are the Iranians going to dig in or are they going to relent?
35:15
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a strategic goal post for the future.
35:18
[SPEAKER_02]: If the Iranians fold, that will be really important for the future of Lebanon and it may change and give
35:26
[SPEAKER_02]: real chances for the process that you and I just spoke about now of some meaningful political developments if Iran digs in, it means that they are willing to jeopardize the ceasefire with the U.S. which is the big strategic game because they value of this ballad so dearly.
35:44
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's one thing that I'll be watching very closely.
35:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Two, I will be looking for the Iranian people.
35:50
[SPEAKER_02]: many times during in people in the last weeks of talk here, they've been kind of cast aside and forgotten.
35:57
[SPEAKER_02]: They are also an ex-factor which was very, very potent and in shaping the environment before.
36:05
[SPEAKER_02]: The U.S. Israeli stripes and I think that they will be crucial and I hope that they will be empowered to be really strategic and game-changing now that they were in the face of
36:20
[SPEAKER_02]: that both Israel and the U.S. will do use the quiet, the less visible kinetic stage in order to promote the long-term objectives that are good for the region, good for the U.S. good for the Iranian people and good for Israel, and that is to weaken the regime and facilitate it being overthrown by the Iranian people domestically.
36:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's where I will be looking, I think Brad made as always, very excellent points that I will be listening to and following as well.
36:55
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think, and last thing, close here on the UAE and Saudi, interesting developments in terms of their posture and what they've done so far, and I think, you know, in terms of,
37:07
[SPEAKER_02]: possible future alignments, alliances, and things that we can build on with Saudi, with the Emirates, and perhaps other countries in the region.
37:19
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of positive things to grow from here, which also I hope that with the American diplomatic leadership and Israeli capabilities as proven on the ground, that'll be useful for the future for all of us together.
37:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Alright.
37:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Excellent analysis, gentlemen.
37:34
[SPEAKER_01]: No surprise there.
37:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank you both for joining us on this special sit-rap version of the FTD morning brief.
37:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Alright, we have finally made it to the end of the week.
37:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Limp in in here to a Friday.
37:50
[SPEAKER_01]: The question is will the ceasefire make it to the end of the weekend?
37:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Will the output of these conversations
38:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know.
38:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Anyway, I guess we're going to find out on Monday's episode of the FTD Morning Brief.
38:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Until then, be sure to check out FTD.org for the sharp analysis of our experts.
38:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you want the same smartness in a smaller package, you can always find us on our social media channels.
38:15
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38:22
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38:27
[SPEAKER_01]: have a terrific weekend folks.
38:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll be watching the news.
38:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to be glued to it so that I'm ready to come back at you again on Monday.
38:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Until then, I'm Jonathan Shanzer signing off for Epidate.