Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 167 - 11/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 167 - 11/20/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 167 of the All Systems Go Sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys. The work week rolls on.
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We're halfway through it's hump day, but before you know it,
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we'll have another big weekend here of college and NFL and then
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looking toward next week. It's creeping up on us.
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But we got Thanksgiving. You know, Thanksgiving is coming
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up when all your family members are texting you saying what are
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your plans? Are you going to mom and dad's?
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What should I bring? Fine by me because I enjoy
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seeing the the, the old ball and chain or the old, you know, the
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old man, my mom and dad. So we'll probably be going out
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to Western Mass to celebrate Thanksgiving and then I'll be
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able to sweat some games on Thanksgiving night or day with
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my dad, some NFL sweat. So I'm very much looking forward
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to that. My dad raised me to be a huge
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Boston sports fan and we watched every game together growing up.
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I rarely get to see him as much anymore and now we get to watch
1:26
some games together. So it's always special when you
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get to watch some games and sweat some games with your old
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man. Anyway, looking toward today
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guys. I got a lot of bets for you, so
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let's see if we can eke out a profit today.
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I have a 7 pack. That's right.
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I made the joke prior when he had a 7 pack.
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It didn't work out right. Remember that was a one in six
1:43
night. So let's see if we can turn it
1:44
around this time. But a six pack and a little nip
1:47
on your way out when you're leaving the packy here, maybe,
1:50
maybe get a fireball nip. How about that?
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But anyway, I got 4 bets in college football tonight.
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There are two games, but we have weather rearing its ugly head.
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We have sharp line moves on sides.
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I'm going to walk that tightrope, see if we can maybe
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get three out of four when it comes to the side and total for
2:06
both matching matchups tonight. And then I got 2 plays in
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college basketball, a premier game where I'm going to look to
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play an under and then also a sharp, obscure line move on a
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side. And then an NBA total that is so
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low, I'm hoping that we have a value play with a rhythm edge to
2:23
go over that number. So 7 pack overall for college
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basketball or sorry for college football. 2 college hoops, one
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NBA. Now looking back toward last
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night guys, sadly all good things must come to an end.
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We had a 5 day win streak going two and three last night -1.5
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units. We had some good hits with Green
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Bay. I totally forgot that Doug
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Gottlieb is the new coach of Green Bay.
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So they they played pretty well, got us the win straight up on
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the money line. And then Purdue, Marquette
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under. We kept our streak going with
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those primetime heavily bet unders.
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Remember we had the Zags under, then the Purdue under last
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night. Able to catch that one, but then
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unfortunately the losers, Fairfield, they're battling
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their late and then just crumbled down the stretch.
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NIU sharp as a tack again, that was just one of those sharp bets
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that didn't come through. NIU played like crap, I would
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say, couldn't get anything going on Offense had a chance to
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backdoor cover and their quarterback fumble and turned it
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over. And what was frustrating was
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Akron Kent under. Now, it wasn't a good start
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under 49 in Athens. They scored, I don't know, it's
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over 20 points in the first like 20 minutes, but we had a chance
3:27
there to eke out a win. And unfortunately, for whatever
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reason, Kent State, who's terrible, decided to throw a 50
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yard bomb touchdown to kill our under 49 and half with like a
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minute left in the game. So that one wasn't fun.
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But either way, guys, again, you win five days in a row, you're
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bound for a night where things don't break your way.
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But 2 and 3 -, 1.5 units. Let's see if we can get it back
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here for tonight. Now let's start off with some
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action and I would want to just remind you guys as always, every
3:55
single all systems go best bet pick is now available on the
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Juice Reel app. If you just go to the social
4:00
tab, you can search at or you can search ASG under score
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podcast and I am going to put these links.
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If you want to support the pod, consider it a tip jar.
4:09
It's 499 a week again, 5 bucks to get all the plays.
4:12
Whether you missed the pod or want to get better numbers
4:15
earlier in the day, like was frustrating about NIU as we got
4:18
2 1/2 close, like 1 1/2 one and end up losing.
4:21
But either way, if we can get good numbers early when we can
4:24
do it is by following on Juice Real and getting those best bets
4:28
and supporting the pod. Think of it that way now as we
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get some action tonight. I told I tell you what guys, I
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was like, oh, I like the totals and the sides on both games.
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I want to limit my plays. I don't really want to have 4
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bets on two games, but I said man, what happens if the one I
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lay off of that sharp wins? I'll be kicking myself.
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So I'm going to play the side and the total for both matchups.
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I'm also going to complain that both games are at 7:00.
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Hey, hello McFly, you in there McFly?
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Why can't Max and give me a 7:00 game and an 8:00 game or seven
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and a nine o'clock. Anyway, who cares?
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Let's start off with Ohio and Toledo.
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This one caught my eye again for both a sharp move on the side
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and the total. Now going to this one, we have
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to the better teams here in the Mac.
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We have Ohio seven and three, they've won three straight.
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We have Toledo seven and three, they've won two straight.
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But we've noticed a very clear move here in favor of Ohio.
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So this game open with Toledo at home around a three-point
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favorite. We've now seen Toledo get down
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to -1 1/2, some books even again close to 1.
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So it's pretty clear here that the lines going toward Ohio
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tells me smart money is taking the points with the Bobcats.
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Then we look at our our bet percentages coming from
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DraftKings. Only 41% of bets, but 69% of
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money, money, money, money is on Ohio.
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So flip it the other way. Toledo's getting 59%, yet the
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lines falling away from them. So if the public's going Toledo,
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why is line dropping where odds makers now giving the public a
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better number to sweat? Toledo tells me you have a
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classic sharp reverse line move on Ohio.
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Now at vsin.com, which I rate sharper boards for, I'm a
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content writer for V Sin. They have a good addition here
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to their bet splits page. I meant been mentioning this
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'cause I think it's important, but I'm going to start
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referencing not only DraftKings, but Circa Bet Splits.
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And if you never been to Circa, you got to get there.
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It's a bucket list. I've been several times.
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It's always fun. Circa is basically Disney World
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for sports betters best, best casino, best sports book around.
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Whether it's stadium swim or sweating games indoors, it's
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just the absolute best. But anyway, Circa prides itself
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on taking in smart money. So I'm now leaning a lot on what
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these percentages say. It's Circa and comparing them to
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DraftKings. And just a side note here, a lot
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of people have asked me like, hey, how are you going to handle
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it moving forward? DraftKings versus Circa.
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I may have mentioned this, but here's the way I'm looking at
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it. One is the line movement is the
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most important. Throw away the percentages.
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Any book, the line is moving based upon respected money, but
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I'm really going to be leaning on DraftKings for where the
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public is because DraftKings is a nationwide book.
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A lot of public recreational betters, That's where we're
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going to take into account. Where's the public?
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I'm going to lean a lot on Circa for their sharp money to where
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see where the sharps are at in terms of their low bets, higher
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dollars, bet split. So in this case, they're both
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both very similar. Like I just mentioned, at
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DraftKings, Ohio is getting 41% bet, 69% money.
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At Circa they are getting 38% bets, 64% money.
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So what does? In this case it doesn't really
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matter which book, but the good thing is Circa sharp book is
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showing another low bets, higher dollar sharp bet split in favor
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of Ohio. So I'm taking the points with
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Ohio plus 1 1/2. Couple other angles here to like
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about Ohio dog. Who can score system match here
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they're averaging 27.6 points per game.
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Short Rd. dog system match if you're a road dog getting less
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than four points. Think of it this way, Home field
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is around 3 points. So if you're a road dog getting
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4 or less, basically on a neutral field, it should be
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around a Peckham game. So that would also match with
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Ohio. And then also an angle that I
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like, by the way, rhythm has Ohio plus 1.3.
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So again, if we're getting a 1 1/2, I'm going to take it.
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The other angle here, though, is the weather is going to be an
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issue. The updated projection here is
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basically 20 mile per hour winds, sustained gusts of 30
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mph. And why is that important?
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I'll get to the total in second, windy under, but rushing attack.
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If this is going to be a very windy game, I'm going to lean on
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the team who can run the ball better because, you know,
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obviously the weather in the wind in particular really
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affects the passing in the kicking game.
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But if you run it, that's kind of an equalizer.
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Ohio is number 13 in the country and running or rushing, I should
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say, 209 yards per game. Toledo is one O 3, the average
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118. So if this wind is going to make
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a huge difference, which it may, and we'll get to the total in a
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second, I want a team who can run the ball and kind of beat
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back the wind. However, however way you want to
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look at it. So first bet for me, Ohio,
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Toledo, give me Ohio plus 1 1/2. Another bet here is I'm going to
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go under now, shop around. I got under 47.
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It's available right now at Caesar's.
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You got some other books at 46 1/2, but shop around for the
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best number. Caesar's is the 47.
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So I got under 47. But if you look at the way this
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total has moved it open as high as 51, it got all the way down
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to I want to say like 44 1/2. It's come back up now to around
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46 and F-47. But based on the opener to
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current, it's really been all respected under money.
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Now if you look at the splits right now at DraftKings, 60% of
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bets are on the over if the total fell.
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So that's good reverse line move to the under at circa, which is
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again takes in sharper wagers, 52% bets, 58% dollars on the
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under. So I like that the bigger,
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sharper wagers here going under, the gusts that I mentioned, 20
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mph gusts of 30 mph throughout the game.
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Rhythm has a projected total of 46.
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So I'm going to go under 47. Guys.
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I, I, I couldn't tell, say to myself, man, layoff Ohio because
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they're really sharp. And I couldn't tell myself to
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layoff the under because it's a really sharp windy under and
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reminder when the wind blows 10 mph or more.
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The under is roughly 55% the last decade, but again, this
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isn't just like 11 mph. This is 20 and gusts up to 30.
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So when you get to that level of windy under, you know, I got to
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play it. So let's walk the tightrope.
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We got to get at least one. Is there any way we can get to
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that would be great, but can be Ohio plus 1 1/2 in the under 47.
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Next one for you, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan.
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Looking at this match up here we have let me just dial it up.
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Another pair of decent teams. We have Buffalo 6 and four on
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the year. They've won two straight.
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Remember we got the over in that game last time against Ball
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State. You may have covered with Ball
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State. I think they were 3 1/2.
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I remember that. It's funny, you always kind of
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remember your losses. Sometimes you forget your wins.
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I remember that. I should have played Ball State
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in that game and I didn't. Anyway, Eastern Michigan,
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they've lost three straight. They're five and five on the
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year. Buffalo 6 and four.
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Let's start with the side. Guess what, guys?
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If you like Ohio, I think you got to like Buffalo this game.
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Open Eastern Michigan as high as a 2 1/2 three-point home
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favorite. And we've seen this line, just
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like Ohio fall toward the road Dog Buffalo.
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So we've seen this go from plus 2 1/2 + 3 Buffalo to now Buffalo
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plus 1 1/2 + 1. Now shop around.
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I was able to get Buffalo 1 1/2 + 1 1/2 at FanDuel.
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So obviously trying to get the best of the number here, but I
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like that this is kind of a 5050 line move, like Publix kind of
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split. They don't really know where to
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go here. It's 5050 yet you're seeing the
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move toward Buffalo. So in a vacuum, line shouldn't
11:42
really move at all if the tickets are Even.
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So it tells me we got the bigger sharp wagers going Buffalo here.
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Now Buffalo checking off some boxes, dog who can score system
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match 27 points per game, better rushing attack, which again in a
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windy, another windy game here could could make a big
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difference because this is a same start, same same part of
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the country here, Michigan, Ohio, that area.
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But also we have a couple of interesting projections here
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from rhythm. Rhythm is saying Buffalo should
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be plus one. And I have another model that
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says rhythm is telling me Buffalo should be -1 so 1 model
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says actually they should be favored in this match up here.
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So they also have a rest advantage.
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One day rest advantage. They last played on the 12th
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versus the 13th for Michigan. But unlike the, you know, very
12:30
clear sharp reverse line move toward Ohio.
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This would be a 5050 bet split toward Buffalo.
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So I'm going to take the points here plus 1 1/2.
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And I'm also going to play the under.
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Now shop around here. I was able to find under 53 1/2
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at Caesar's. Most books are 52 and a half 53.
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So as always, shop around, get the best number.
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But this is another windy under system match.
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Winds of 15 mph gusts up to 25 mph.
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So another windy under system match.
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And we have our friends at Rhythm predicting a total of 52.
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I also like the under because 70% of bets at DraftKings are
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going over, yet this total fell. And that is an angle to me of a
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really sharp reverse line move. So I'm going to take the under
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again, shop around. I got 53 1/2 at Caesar's and I'm
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going to go Buffalo plus 1 1/2. So both dogs plus 1 1/2 under
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47. Ohio at Caesar's under 53 1/2.
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Buffalo at Caesars as well. Can we find a way to at least go
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2:00 and 2:00? But can we find a way to get
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three of those? That would be fantastic.
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Now, let's go over to some college football or sorry,
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college basketball, I should say.
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Biggest match up here tonight is a showdown between a couple
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ranked teams. 9:00 Eastern Time here tonight.
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Let me just pull this one up. We have Illinois against Alabama
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9:00 on. It's on the SEC Network.
13:55
Like, why isn't this on ESPN anyway?
13:58
But notable to me, a couple of things.
13:59
One, you've seen this line go toward Bama.
14:02
They open around -6 and half, seven and half, they're up to -8
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They are a, let me just double check because I want to say
14:09
they're, they're the big public play here tonight, but they are
14:12
currently getting across the market.
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Where are they at? Yeah, 70% of bets.
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Now there was some maybe Illinois plus 8 1/2 buyback to
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bring it back down to 8. You can tell me you like
14:25
contrarian Illinois. I'm going to focus on the total.
14:28
And the one thing I noticed about this total is a big move
14:31
upward. Now this total opened, and by
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the way, Illinois is 3 and O, they're ranked 25th, Alabama
14:37
ranked 8th. They're three and one.
14:39
But in terms of the total, we saw this total open around 166
14:44
1/2 and now the total is up to 168 1/2.
14:48
So it's gone up two points. Now.
14:50
If you look at kind of the way it's moved, you can tell me, oh,
14:55
go over here, right? I'm not going to call this a
14:57
sharp under, but I'm going to call it a value play contrarian
15:01
under because if you look at the predictions here, we have some
15:05
really good predictions. Ken Palm is predicting a total
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of a final total of 163. Rhythm is predicting A165 or
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A166. The other thing I noticed is
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this is a neutral site game. Now it is in Alabama, but this
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is the CM Newton Classic. It's at Legacy Arena at BJCCI,
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have no idea where that is, but it says it's in Birmingham, AL
15:30
Technically Alabama out game in Birmingham, that would be a home
15:33
game, but it's not their true homecourt.
15:35
So this is technically a neutral court.
15:38
So lack of familiarity, don't know the sight lines, the
15:40
backboards, the rims, That is a little bit of a cherry on top to
15:43
play in under. But also, I mean, I know Bama's
15:46
really good offensively, but both these teams are top 50
15:49
defensive rating. And you look at Illinois,
15:51
they're #25 Bama is number 48. And this is out of 364 teams.
15:57
And remember, we talked the Gonzaga game and San Diego
15:59
State, basically, hey, if you're going to stay in this game, you
16:02
got to play defense, keep it low scoring.
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I think the angle here for Illinois is, hey, if you want
16:08
to, you know, have any shot at beating Alabama, who's now
16:11
favored by 8 or 8 1/2, you got to keep this thing low scoring.
16:14
You can't get into a shootout here and expect to win 92 to 90
16:17
like the Alabama's offense is too good.
16:20
So again, the total rose 166 1/2 to 168 1/2.
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Ken Palms got a 163. Rhythms got around A1, 65166.
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It's a neutral court. We have two good defensive
16:32
efficiency teams. I'm going to sell high on this
16:36
total. I'm going to hope that Ken Palm
16:38
and Rhythm are closer to the the the true number here versus the
16:43
steam that hit the over. So again, this isn't a sharp
16:46
bet. You know, we don't have a steam.
16:48
We have basically steam over. This is a what I would call a
16:51
value play. It's the most heavily back game
16:53
of the night. We can go the other way and sell
16:55
high and take the under. So I'm going to go under
16:58
Illinois and Bama under 168 1/2. That's pretty widely available.
17:04
The other game that caught my eye, that's the biggest one
17:06
tonight. Here is a smaller game tonight.
17:09
Let's talk about Towson. Towson Tigers.
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They are on the road at Nichols State.
17:15
I like Towson to win this game. I'm on the Towson money line, so
17:19
shop around. I want to say I got them at
17:21
around -150 this is an added game, extra game, 7:30 PM
17:25
tonight. So it is game three O
17:27
656-530-6566. And what do we like about those
17:30
added game extra games? Sharp line moves.
17:33
Because the public doesn't care about Towson Nickel State.
17:36
But wise guys don't care if it's a big game, small game, they
17:38
have an edge. They're going to play it.
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And guess what? Towson Nickel State pays out the
17:42
same as as Illinois, Alabama tonight.
17:45
So don't let kind of the size of the game or the, you know, big
17:49
name schools, you know, kind of obscure your, your vision or
17:52
your approach to a game. Anyway, I like Towson money line
17:56
here -150 they open as a very short 1 1/2 point favorite on
17:59
the road. They've now been bet up to -2
18:02
1/2 - 3. So we have a added game extra
18:06
game. Obscure sharp line move.
18:08
Now Ken Palm as Towson only winning by one, but rhythm as
18:11
Towson winning by around 3 or 4. They are ranked much higher
18:15
according to Ken Palm, 146 in the country versus 2O6.
18:19
By the way, Towson comes in two and two.
18:21
Nichols comes in two and three. But here are some angles that
18:25
kind of remind me of Green Bay last night.
18:27
Just a lot of advantages offensively, like offensive
18:30
efficiency. The ranked 174 in the country.
18:33
Nichols is ranked 242. They're also the better
18:36
defensive efficiency team, 126 in the country versus 159.
18:41
They have the better effective field goal percentage, 44%
18:44
versus 42%. They take care of the ball
18:47
better. They're 63rd in the country and
18:49
turning it over versus 167th in the country for Nichols State
18:54
free throw percentage. They're both bad, Towson 62%,
18:58
but boy is Nichols bad, 54%. So if it's a tight game, you got
19:02
to go to the free throw line. Hopefully that is a benefit here
19:05
toward Towson. And we also have Towson only
19:08
giving up around 63 a game versus 70 for Nichols State.
19:11
And they also have an advantage here with blocks and steals.
19:14
So some of these supplementary categories.
19:16
So again, are we going to lay a 2 1/2 three with with Towson and
19:21
have them win by 1-2 or three and lose or push?
19:23
Nope. I'm going to go money line here
19:25
-150 so give me Towson to win the damn game.
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So Towson -150 money line Illinois Bama under 168 1/2.
19:35
Last bed of the night for you. Stay up late with me.
19:38
We have the Magic and the clips now.
19:41
I was entertaining Magic money line.
19:45
If you haven't noticed Magic, you know they lost Paolo Bank
19:48
Arrow to an injury and they have not skipped a beat.
19:50
They're playing pretty well. This is a team that was bad for
19:52
a while and now 1123456 straight.
19:56
They come in nine and six. LA Clippers are 8 and seven.
20:00
There was a big move toward the Magic.
20:01
It was a pick em game all the way up now to -3 1/2.
20:05
That money line was a little bit high for me.
20:07
It was like closer to -175 but I looked at the total and the
20:11
total kept kept staring me in the face.
20:14
Number one, it opened very low. It opened around two O 7 1/2,
20:17
two O 8. It's all the way down to two O 4
20:19
1/2. So here's the thing, it's very
20:21
clear that there was a lot of under money that came in to drop
20:24
this total. But I'm thinking it's fallen so
20:27
much that it's created an opportunity for us to buy low
20:30
and take the over. So I'm going to walk this
20:32
tightrope. Give me Magic Clippers over two
20:35
O 4 1/2 rhythm is predicting A2 O 6.5 S.
20:40
Again, we have a rhythm edge here to the over.
20:42
It's also a short spread, you know, Magic 3 1/2 on the road.
20:45
So short spread back and forth, competitive game, maybe get
20:49
overtime always like a over on a short spread versus a under on a
20:52
big spread, big spread under as you get a big take your foot off
20:55
the gas, that sort of thing. Last 10 games, Clippers are
20:58
averaging 108 points a game, giving up 108.
21:02
Now Orlando's averaging one O 4. They're playing good defense.
21:04
You're asking yourself, why is this total so low?
21:06
Well, it is because Orlando is one of the best defensive teams
21:09
in in basketball. They're only giving up 99 points
21:11
a game. But here are some system matches
21:15
that will hopefully, if you want to play this over, give you a
21:17
little bit more confidence when the total falls at least three
21:20
points. So in this case, it was two O 8,
21:23
two O 7 1/2 down to two O 4 1/2. When it falls three points or
21:26
more, Bilo take the over, which is what we're doing here.
21:30
That system is 23 and 16 this year, 59%.
21:34
So that answers the question of like, hey, it's clear the unders
21:37
getting hit, but is there still value?
21:39
Like again, let's say this game lands, you know, 2O62O7.
21:43
That means if you got an early under, you win, but if you got a
21:47
late under, you lose. So you always want to be on the
21:49
sharp side, but you also want to think about, you know, what
21:51
numbers did the sharp get? What was that triggering number?
21:53
And as it moved too much to where again, there's no longer
21:56
value. Another angle I had here was a
21:58
low total over when the total is 210 or less.
22:02
The over is 25 and 16 this year or sorry, it's 25 and 16 since
22:08
2020, 261 percent, 18% ROI. And then also a non conference
22:12
over. So these teams don't play each
22:14
other very often. You have Eastern Conference
22:17
Magic, Western Conference Clippers.
22:19
So that lack of familiarity really don't know how to match
22:21
up defensively. Hopefully that is a benefit to
22:23
the offense. So again, it's fallen quite a
22:25
bit. I'm going to see if we can buy
22:27
low and get that over two O 4 1/2 and I would love to play the
22:31
over two O 4 1/2 and then you know, throughout the afternoon
22:34
start to see that rise up to around two O 5 1/2.
22:37
That would be the goal. But I'm going to stay up late
22:39
1030 and go Magic Clippers over two O 4 1/2.
22:43
So that about does it for episode 167 of the All Systems
22:47
Go pod. I wanted to mention just a
22:49
couple updates because we talked about some NFL games yesterday.
22:52
I officially did play Dallas Washington in the NFL under 45
22:56
1/2 that was available at I want to say was it Caesar's or no?
23:01
Maybe it was FanDuel. Some books are at 4544 1/2.
23:04
But again, having multiple outs, you can always pick off the best
23:07
price. So I'm playing Cowboys
23:09
commanders under 45 1/2. It's a windy under.
23:13
You have a really good bet split.
23:14
I got a lot of system matches here, outdoor divisional unders,
23:18
unders that fall all lighting up on that commanders under.
23:20
So if you want to play it, try to get under 45 1/2.
23:24
I did play Chicago plus 3 1/2. This one probably sounds pretty
23:27
gross. They're at home against
23:28
Minnesota, but they open getting 5.
23:30
The lines down to four, 3 1/2 and it's juiced up towards
23:33
Chicago. Like it may get down to three.
23:36
And they're really contrarian. Everyone's playing Minnesota,
23:38
but it's falling to Chicago. This is also a divisional dog
23:41
system match. So I got 3 1/2 with Chicago
23:46
again, and I said to myself, hey, I better grab the hook now,
23:49
seeing as it may get down to three.
23:51
The other bet that I placed since we last talked, if you can
23:55
get Rams plus three, I'm playing that on Sunday night.
23:58
Everyone is playing Philly. Like 85% of bets is one of the
24:01
top contrarian plays of the year.
24:03
It reminds me a lot of when the Rams were at home against the
24:06
Vikings. Remember, they're getting like
24:08
11% of bets. But Eagles open -3 it's either
24:12
stayed three or gotten to 2 1/2, even though everyone's playing
24:14
Eagles. So I like the Rams plus three
24:16
there. Sonic football, contrarian play,
24:19
San Fran, Green Bay still going to go Green Bay money line.
24:22
I didn't bet it yet though. It's -2 1/2.
24:24
I'm thinking if Purdy or Bosa or Trenton Williams are all
24:27
questionable now, if they get upgraded a probable it might get
24:30
down to 2. So I want to hold off for a
24:32
better money line price. And then I did play that.
24:35
Talk about Chargers against Baltimore.
24:37
It's Monday Night Football, it's a ways away.
24:39
I think I might have mentioned it, but I grabbed the three
24:41
there because everybody is playing Baltimore yet.
24:45
Very similar to the the Rams game against Philly, it stayed
24:49
where it's at or it's trending down to 2 1/2.
24:51
So those are just some bets that I put in now again.
24:54
And they're all available at the on the juicer lab if you want to
24:56
follow from the social tab. So I just wanted to give some
24:59
updates there. But anyway, guys, as always,
25:02
this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
25:04
And I start by asking a favor of you.
25:06
Can you do me a solid and give this podcast a five star review?
25:10
It'll take 2 seconds, but it'll mean a lot to me.
25:13
The more five star reviews we can get, the more we grow, the
25:16
more listings we get. So help me grow the pod please.
25:19
If you want to recommend it to a friend or click the follow
25:21
button or or or give a good review, that'll be fantastic as
25:26
well. But please, a five star review
25:27
would go a long way. Secondly, holidays are coming
25:31
up. If you enjoy the pod and you
25:32
want to learn more about data-driven betting or gift
25:35
someone in your life that sports better in your life, who parlays
25:38
everything always plays his or her favorite teams you know is
25:43
is just constantly doubling down chasing, give them the
25:47
everything guide to sports betting.
25:49
Go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
25:51
betting. That's my book.
25:53
If you want to pick it up again, it's less than 20 bucks.
25:55
It's a great stocking stuffer or gift idea.
25:57
Again, who wants another pair of of boxers or a flannel shirt?
26:01
Why don't you get your your dad, your uncle, your son, your
26:03
cousin, the Everything Guide to Sports Betting?
26:05
Because maybe they can turn, you know, that 20 bucks into 100
26:08
bucks with some sharp contrarian bets.
26:10
But anyway, it's got everything I've learned in the industry,
26:12
how lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
26:15
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
26:17
person or online, all included in the Everything Guide to
26:20
Sports Betting. So grab one at Amazon.com, bring
26:23
it to the sports book. I'll sign it for you.
26:25
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale next.
26:27
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of juice reel or
26:30
Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
26:32
time. Rhythm is great for their AI
26:34
backed models and predictions for best bets for game game bets
26:38
and player props. Juice reel, of course is great
26:41
for if you want to follow the all systems go best bets on the
26:44
social media tab or if you want to follow the robo Jackson best
26:48
bet picks the AI models that spit out those best bets each
26:52
day at noon. You can also look at sharp
26:54
motion indicators, arbitrage opportunities you can shop for
26:58
the best line. One good feature with juice Reel
27:00
is if you want to play a futures, it'll quickly tell you
27:02
what book to get the best number at where you can get like a +
27:06
500 instead of a + 450. So it's kind of another great
27:09
feature I like. But anyway, sign up for juice
27:12
real and rhythm and again, click those custom links on my profile
27:16
at Josh under score insights on Twitter or in the bio
27:18
description of the pod. So that about does it everybody.
27:22
Big night here for tonight. Excited to sweat some games with
27:25
you. Let's see if we can start a new
27:26
winning streak here. And as always, I'm going to
27:28
leave you with a couple things. First, whether I see you at the
27:31
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
27:34
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut,
27:38
at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
27:41
Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
27:42
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
27:45
get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
27:47
number runners, where the lowest juice possible is found.
27:49
The South Point or Sweat and Sharpkin train plays, jumping in
27:52
the stadium swimming pool when he cash a big ticket at Circa,
27:55
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
27:58
even though it was two and three night couple good wins.
28:00
Show me a Green Bay money line. Show me a Purdue Marquette under
28:04
whatever you do Fairfield and how did NIU not show up last
28:07
night? That was that was frustrating.
28:08
I thought they would win that game outright based on that
28:11
sharp line move. But Akron, Kent, Kent, you had
28:14
to score that that 50 yard Hail Mary to kill our under it with a
28:18
minute left. You had to do it right.
28:19
You had to. Anyway, guys, first one's on me.
28:21
Next one's on you. We're going to post about the
28:23
book sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long.
28:26
So as always, whether we're five and OO and five, I hope you guys
28:31
have realized at this point, the grind never ends.
28:33
It's never easy. When you're hot, you're never as
28:35
good as you think. When you're cold, you're never
28:37
as bad as you think. You're always somewhere in the
28:38
middle. But here's one thing that I can,
28:40
I can always stress to you, stay grounded, stay even keeled,
28:44
continue to grind the model in the blueprint.
28:46
And what is the model or blue or blueprint?
28:48
Sharp data-driven betting. Trust what the market is doing,
28:51
not what your bias and instinct is telling you.
28:54
What will happen. But if we can do that, if we can
28:56
bet against the public, if we can be with the house, with the
28:59
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get closing line value, be on
29:03
the sharp side of every bet again, we'll sharp money when
29:05
every time No NIU was sharp as a tack, but it didn't come
29:08
through. But here's the thing, not every
29:10
sharp play will win, but it will win a majority of the time long
29:13
term, 55 to 60%. So we can place ourselves
29:16
against the masses, against the drunk guys at the bar and with
29:19
the Billy Walters, the the wise guys here, the Jimmy, the
29:23
Greeks. If we can do that, we're going
29:25
to be successful sports betters. So have a great night,
29:27
everybody. We will be right back at it for
29:30
a big thirsty Thursday. And do we dare, do we dare take
29:34
the Cleveland Browns tomorrow? Everyone's playing Pittsburgh,
29:37
but the Browns open plus, I want to say plus 4, they're down to 3
29:41
1/2. Boy, is that total fallen.
29:43
We'll have some good, good stuff to talk about for tomorrow,
29:46
Pittsburgh, Cleveland. But until then, best of luck.
29:49
And I'll see you tomorrow for episode 168 of the All Systems
29:52
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:55
Good luck everybody, have a great night.