Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Is Canada getting a little too cozy with China?

Transcript

Is Canada getting a little too cozy with China? · The Financial Exchange Show

0:00
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
0:03
Speaker 1: is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
0:06
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
0:09
Speaker 1: the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
0:12
Speaker 1: or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
0:15
Speaker 1: not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
0:18
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
0:21
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
0:24
Speaker 1: this program do not endorse each other or their services.
0:26
Speaker 1: Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
0:29
Speaker 1: for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
0:35
Speaker 1: Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
0:39
Speaker 1: at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
0:43
Speaker 1: your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
0:46
Speaker 1: and market trends, plus breaking business news every day. The
0:51
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
0:54
Speaker 1: Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
0:58
Speaker 1: heroes by visiting DAV five dot Boston and making a
1:02
Speaker 1: donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
1:07
Speaker 1: and Mike Armstrong.
1:13
Speaker 2: Chuck Mike A Zucker with you here on a Friday,
1:18
Speaker 2: as we uh wrap up the first half of the
1:21
Speaker 2: first month of twenty twenty six. It's kind of a
1:27
Speaker 2: momentous occasion, and so I'd like to, you know, take
1:30
Speaker 2: some time to thank everyone for listening and you know,
1:33
Speaker 2: appreciate y'all tuneing in. But Stock's not really doing much
1:36
Speaker 2: of anything today, so unfortunately just kind of boring quite honestly.
1:40
Speaker 2: The S and P is down one point, why even
1:44
Speaker 2: talk about it? The Dow is down fifty eight points,
1:46
Speaker 2: the NASDAK composits down ten. Again, there's just not much
1:50
Speaker 2: going on on the surface. I will say, under the hood,
1:54
Speaker 2: there's some you know, real stuff that's that's moving there,
1:58
Speaker 2: but the indices as a whole are just not feeling
2:00
Speaker 2: it because everything's kind of you know, moving in different directions.
2:04
Speaker 2: But like today's an example, Google's back down one percent,
2:07
Speaker 2: Pallenteers down two and a half, Oracles down one to third,
2:10
Speaker 2: but you've got Micron up five percent. Let's see Eating
2:14
Speaker 2: Corporations up four, ge Vernova's up seven. So it's just
2:19
Speaker 2: kind of again like nothing not everything's moving in one
2:22
Speaker 2: direction or another, which is good if you don't like volatility,
2:25
Speaker 2: but it's bad if you want your stocks to, you know,
2:28
Speaker 2: try to make new all time highs on the major indices.
2:30
Speaker 2: It's kind of hard to do that when everything's just
2:32
Speaker 2: pulling in different directions. We've got the ten year US
2:36
Speaker 2: Treasury that is moving in one direction today, and that
2:39
Speaker 2: is up up four point seven basis points to four
2:42
Speaker 2: point two oh seven percent. Gold is down fifty one
2:45
Speaker 2: to eighty an ounce to forty five seventy one and
2:48
Speaker 2: ninety cents. Silver bowl's really kind of taking it on
2:52
Speaker 2: the chin today, down five and a quarter percent. I
2:54
Speaker 2: know everyone and the grandmother's been talking about silver in
2:57
Speaker 2: the last couple months. I just, you know, I mentioned
3:01
Speaker 2: it today just because that I don't know anything about it. Really,
3:04
Speaker 2: It's it's just it's it's silver. That's the color and
3:07
Speaker 2: the name of it. We've got crude oil up sixty
3:11
Speaker 2: cents a barrel to fifty nine to seventy nine, triple
3:13
Speaker 2: a national average. Four gas prices back down five tenths
3:17
Speaker 2: of ascent to two eighty three and nine tenths, so
3:20
Speaker 2: some little wobbles here and there, but not too much
3:23
Speaker 2: of a move in either direction right now, and so
3:26
Speaker 2: that is what is moving in markets today.
3:30
Speaker 3: CNBC is reporting that Warsh is sprinting ahead in the
3:34
Speaker 3: FED chair race. It's just prediction markets, yeah, in prediction markets.
3:39
Speaker 2: Prediction markets aren't worth the money that's predicted on them.
3:43
Speaker 4: Maybe not.
3:44
Speaker 2: You know, you gotta remember the people that are actually
3:47
Speaker 2: betting in prediction markets on the FED chair are not
3:51
Speaker 2: the people that are actually going to have their lives
3:54
Speaker 2: changed by the next FED chair, you know, like Larry
4:02
Speaker 2: Fink isn't on Calshi.
4:05
Speaker 3: No, I'm just still wondering who placed the bed on
4:08
Speaker 3: Venezuela hours before we, uh we moved to Venezuela's that
4:13
Speaker 3: probably not Maduro, this is my point, agreed, Not Maduro,
4:17
Speaker 3: you know, maybe somebody with some inside knowledge.
4:19
Speaker 4: So I just.
4:20
Speaker 2: I'm just not sure that prediction markets are a useful
4:25
Speaker 2: signal in most contexts. Okay, you know, it's it's no
4:31
Speaker 2: different from okay, like how often are prop bets right
4:36
Speaker 2: on gambling sites?
4:38
Speaker 4: Sure, you know, like I don't, I don't know, It's
4:41
Speaker 4: just like it's what people do.
4:43
Speaker 2: Uh So We've got this piece from Wall Street Journal
4:46
Speaker 2: Powell investigation up ends final stretch of FED chair contest.
4:50
Speaker 2: I disagree with the premise here, and I know this
4:54
Speaker 2: comes from you know, it's a three byline piece, so
4:56
Speaker 2: like there's some there's some heft behind it from Nick
4:59
Speaker 2: tim Ura, Shavon Hughes, and Josh Dawesy.
5:03
Speaker 4: But are you.
5:03
Speaker 5: Debating the sub or the definition of up end here?
5:08
Speaker 5: Like what's I don't.
5:09
Speaker 2: Think anything that's going on right now is going to
5:11
Speaker 2: change who President Trump picks, And I don't think that
5:15
Speaker 2: anything that's happening here is actually going to impact the
5:18
Speaker 2: likelihood of that person getting through the Senate.
5:22
Speaker 4: Yeah, like it.
5:24
Speaker 2: Okay, so you've got you know, Tom Taylis and Lisa
5:28
Speaker 2: Berkowski saying oh, well, you know, we don't want to
5:30
Speaker 2: vote on anyone until the probe is resolved. Okay, show
5:34
Speaker 2: me what you do, not what you say. Yeah, you know,
5:37
Speaker 2: I just I don't think this actually changed anything. The
5:41
Speaker 2: place that I do think it changes. Something that is
5:44
Speaker 2: interesting to me is I do think that based on
5:50
Speaker 2: the events of the last week or so, I do
5:53
Speaker 2: think the next FED chair is going to have a
5:55
Speaker 2: tougher time holding their committee together because they are going
5:59
Speaker 2: to be viewed more and more skeptically by the existing
6:02
Speaker 2: members of that committee, one of who may or may
6:05
Speaker 2: not be Ja Powell himself if he decides to stay
6:07
Speaker 2: on as a governor. Yeah, see, that's agreed.
6:09
Speaker 3: I don't know that this is going to upend well,
6:12
Speaker 3: I guess that is kind of where it's gonna It's
6:16
Speaker 3: not going to open into the search process. It's not
6:17
Speaker 3: going to lead President Trump to choose some new Kevin
6:20
Speaker 3: to run the FED who thinks he's going to be
6:22
Speaker 3: more independent because he knows that he will get his
6:24
Speaker 3: choice through. Ultimately, I tend to agree there, You're right.
6:28
Speaker 3: I think the more interesting case is for the other
6:32
Speaker 3: rotating twelve voting members. How dug in are they going
6:37
Speaker 3: to be against this new FED chair?
6:40
Speaker 4: Right?
6:40
Speaker 3: That's that is a pretty interesting choice. And is the
6:43
Speaker 3: new FED chair being like more hamstrung by this? That's
6:47
Speaker 3: a hard maybe. Yeah, I would suspect not, because I
6:51
Speaker 3: think they're all also looking at the exorbitant legal costs
6:55
Speaker 3: that Jay Powell is racking up right now on his
6:58
Speaker 3: own personal dime to try and fight these charges. And
7:01
Speaker 3: I'd imagine that's pretty scary for a lot of FED
7:03
Speaker 3: chairs that may not be as wealthy as j Powell.
7:06
Speaker 2: Well, you got to think of it in this context.
7:09
Speaker 2: After you're the FED chair, you can accumulate the wealth.
7:12
Speaker 2: Then you go on the speaking circuit. And remember Ben
7:14
Speaker 2: Bernanke was getting two hundred and fifty grand per appearance.
7:17
Speaker 2: There's been some inflation. Yeah, I don't see why you
7:21
Speaker 2: can't go out and get five hundred thousand per appearance
7:23
Speaker 2: if you're the you know, next FED Chair, Fed governor,
7:26
Speaker 2: going right, it's probably fifty to one hundred grand per appearance.
7:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can still got a pretty good gig after it. Yeah,
7:32
Speaker 3: it is, we will. I guess we'll just have.
7:35
Speaker 4: To pay for like one hour of legal fees.
7:37
Speaker 3: But it does not There's really tough to paint a
7:41
Speaker 3: picture where this series of events is going to make
7:44
Speaker 3: the next chairs job easier.
7:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's kind of where I land at this point
7:51
Speaker 2: on it. So I don't think that the Feds again,
7:55
Speaker 2: we should know who this person's going to be in
7:58
Speaker 2: the next couple of weeks. I think that that was
7:59
Speaker 2: the indication we had received in December was you know,
8:03
Speaker 2: January was kind of the the time, and look, we
8:06
Speaker 2: got two weeks left in January, so I think we're
8:08
Speaker 2: gonna know who the nominee is by the end of
8:10
Speaker 2: the month, and I I don't have you know, any idea,
8:16
Speaker 2: to be honest, like if you if if you asked
8:20
Speaker 2: me who I think would do the best job, I
8:24
Speaker 2: think I think I still probably land with Waller, just
8:27
Speaker 2: because I think he's been dialed.
8:31
Speaker 3: No, yeah, but he's running so Hassett or Kevin's which one?
8:35
Speaker 3: Because I don't have an opinion.
8:36
Speaker 2: Here, I think I probably leaned towards Hassett. Okay, I
8:45
Speaker 2: think I probably just just because I don't Hassett is
8:48
Speaker 2: very like is also like very plugged into what is
8:51
Speaker 2: going on right now. I just don't know that, like
8:53
Speaker 2: I've seen anything from Wars in the last five to
8:55
Speaker 2: six years that's particularly like notable, interesting or directionally correct
9:00
Speaker 2: more often than not, Like it's just kind of what
9:04
Speaker 2: I just don't know that there's any juice there necessarily.
9:08
Speaker 2: It's not to say that he will or won't do
9:09
Speaker 2: a bad job if he's the person, like none of
9:12
Speaker 2: us actually know, you know, it's we have no idea
9:15
Speaker 2: how they're actually gonna do once they're in the seat.
9:18
Speaker 4: But I don't know. I just view Waller as the guy.
9:21
Speaker 2: Who again like has been absolutely locked into what this
9:28
Speaker 2: economy has been doing for the last five years. I
9:32
Speaker 2: think it's something also where remember he was nominated by
9:35
Speaker 2: President Trump during his first term also to the Board
9:39
Speaker 2: of Governors, so you know, there's familiarity there as well.
9:42
Speaker 2: It's not like this is someone who's not Trump's guy.
9:46
Speaker 3: And I think that he's proven to be just very
9:51
Speaker 3: in tune with where this economy is right now, and
9:53
Speaker 3: that to me is important.
9:55
Speaker 4: I think. So that's my pitch for Waller.
10:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I've got no real dog in the fight.
10:04
Speaker 2: Whoever it is, who's gonna be and like it's you know,
10:08
Speaker 2: we deal with it, We move on and like you
10:09
Speaker 2: go about your days.
10:10
Speaker 4: That's how you do it. Let's take a quick break.
10:13
Speaker 2: When we come back, let's do some trivia and then
10:19
Speaker 2: let's talk mortgages and the housing market.
10:22
Speaker 4: Right after this, miss any of the show.
10:25
Speaker 1: Catch up at your convenience by visiting Financial Exchange show
10:28
Speaker 1: dot com and clicking the on demand icon, where you'll
10:31
Speaker 1: find all of our interviews and full shows. This is
10:34
Speaker 1: your home for the latest business and financial news in
10:37
Speaker 1: New England and around the country. This is the Financial
10:40
Speaker 1: Exchange Radio Network. Here the Financial Exchange every day from
10:45
Speaker 1: eleven to noon, non serious XM's Business Radio Channel one
10:48
Speaker 1: thirty two. Keep it here for the latest business and
10:51
Speaker 1: financial news and the trends on Wall Street. The Financial
10:54
Speaker 1: Exchange is now livee on Serious XM's Business Radio Channel
10:58
Speaker 1: one thirty two. This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
11:04
Speaker 6: This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
11:07
Speaker 6: by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. Experience America's
11:11
Speaker 6: Caribbean and fall naturally rhythm with the heartbeat of the
11:13
Speaker 6: islands while enjoying incredible beaches, world class cuisine and unforgettable sunsets.
11:19
Speaker 6: The weather is perfect all year round, so head to
11:21
Speaker 6: visit USBI dot com and book your trip to Saint Croix,
11:25
Speaker 6: Saint Thomas, or Saint John. Enjoy one or all three
11:29
Speaker 6: and enjoy the vacation of a lifetime. The USBI is
11:32
Speaker 6: America's Caribbean Paradise. Plan your winter escape now visit USBI
11:36
Speaker 6: dot com. That's visit USVII dot com. Time for Trivia
11:41
Speaker 6: Year and the Financial Exchange.
11:42
Speaker 4: And on this day.
11:43
Speaker 6: In two thousand and one, President Clinton awarded a former
11:47
Speaker 6: US president with the Medal of Honor. To this day,
11:50
Speaker 6: he is the only US president to have received the
11:53
Speaker 6: Medal of Honor. So trivia question today which US President
11:56
Speaker 6: is the only recipient of the Medal of Honor? In
12:00
Speaker 6: which US President is the only recipient of the Medal
12:04
Speaker 6: of Honor. Be the fourth person today to Texas at
12:07
Speaker 6: six one seven three six to two thirteen eighty five
12:10
Speaker 6: with the correct answer along with the keyword trivia, and
12:13
Speaker 6: you win a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
12:15
Speaker 4: Once again.
12:16
Speaker 6: The fourth correct response to textas to the number six
12:20
Speaker 6: one seven three six two thirteen eighty five along with
12:24
Speaker 6: the keyword trivia will win that T shirt. See complete
12:27
Speaker 6: contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
12:31
Speaker 4: I want to talk a little bit about the housing market.
12:33
Speaker 2: There's a piece in Bloomberg Mortgages at six percent post
12:37
Speaker 2: critical test for frozen housing market, and a couple different
12:41
Speaker 2: pieces that I want to explore on this. The first is,
12:44
Speaker 2: in and of itself, lower mortgage rates aren't actually going
12:49
Speaker 2: to change the housing market to make it more affordable.
12:52
Speaker 2: And the reason why is because it's not just you
12:56
Speaker 2: that has that lower mortgage rate. Case in point, let's
12:59
Speaker 2: say that you're you're bidding on a house that is
13:04
Speaker 2: listed at three hundred thousand dollars, mortgage rates drop a
13:09
Speaker 2: tenth of a percent. That generally means that you have
13:12
Speaker 2: about one percent more that you can extend on in
13:15
Speaker 2: the monthly payment. I'm sorry, in the uh the headline
13:18
Speaker 2: price without pushing your monthly payment up from where.
13:21
Speaker 4: It was previously.
13:22
Speaker 2: So you say, okay, I could bid you know, three
13:24
Speaker 2: hundred and three thousand, or I could just you know,
13:26
Speaker 2: get this house at three hundred thousand, in my monthly
13:28
Speaker 2: payment would be one percent less. The problem is, if
13:33
Speaker 2: I'm bidding on that house and Mike is a tucker
13:35
Speaker 2: is if only one of us makes the decision well,
13:39
Speaker 2: hey I can bid more now, well, then it hasn't
13:41
Speaker 2: actually made the house more affordable. It's just been a
13:45
Speaker 2: case where okay, now the price is going to be
13:48
Speaker 2: lifted because the monthly payment will still be the same.
13:52
Speaker 4: It hasn't. I do feel.
13:53
Speaker 3: Comfortable saying it's not going to It's not going to
13:56
Speaker 3: increase affordability. It is likely to increase SALESFALLIAMS, which would
14:00
Speaker 3: be good for our economy, but not necessarily for buyers.
14:04
Speaker 2: But and this is the important piece of this, this
14:08
Speaker 2: doesn't happen just in a vacuum, because as mortgage rates
14:11
Speaker 2: come down, there are fewer sellers that are locked into
14:18
Speaker 2: their properties than before, which means more inventory can be listed,
14:23
Speaker 2: which means less competition because you have the same number
14:26
Speaker 2: of buyers now competing for more inventory.
14:29
Speaker 3: And so that in theory, could improve affordability, not really
14:34
Speaker 3: in the short term, because it's not like home prices
14:37
Speaker 3: moved down the second of place lists. It's much more okay.
14:41
Speaker 3: As more places sit for longer, then you have more
14:44
Speaker 3: price cuts that happen. So this is something that might
14:47
Speaker 3: play out over the next one to three years. And
14:50
Speaker 3: this again is why I think and why I'm on
14:52
Speaker 3: record as saying I think for housing, we have reached
14:56
Speaker 3: peak affordability concerns because I think, no matter what happens
15:01
Speaker 3: over the next couple of years, we're going to be
15:04
Speaker 3: in a position where housing is more affordable in twenty seven,
15:09
Speaker 3: twenty eight, twenty nine, simply because we're going through this
15:13
Speaker 3: housing cycle and it's going to play out in that fashion.
15:17
Speaker 3: Next time we have Mike Simonson on, I want to
15:19
Speaker 3: ask him about his point that he made about affordability.
15:22
Speaker 3: So Mike Simonson, who've heard on the program before, he
15:25
Speaker 3: is now the chief economist at Compass Realty. He says
15:30
Speaker 3: homes are actually more affordable than they've been since twenty
15:35
Speaker 3: twenty once income growth is factored in, according to his
15:39
Speaker 3: data that he's gathered, and on the surface, I found
15:43
Speaker 3: that surprising initially when you think about how much prices
15:46
Speaker 3: have increased since twenty twenty, but so have incomes. And
15:51
Speaker 3: I'm very interested to see what data he's pulling there
15:54
Speaker 3: in terms of how you factor that in. Are you
15:57
Speaker 3: factoring in the additional interest costs? I assume that he
16:00
Speaker 3: is with all of those things, and nobody that I
16:02
Speaker 3: know has a better view on the on the real
16:04
Speaker 3: estate market than Mike Simonson. But I found that piece
16:06
Speaker 3: to be quite interesting. We have been just facing a
16:12
Speaker 3: flood of different ideas when it comes to fixing affordability
16:16
Speaker 3: in the housing market. The other one that I haven't
16:18
Speaker 3: had the chance to talk to you about, Chuck. You
16:21
Speaker 3: see Ackman's idea. No, So, his idea is allow banks
16:27
Speaker 3: to reintroduce pre payment penalties on mortgages. Okay, hang on,
16:33
Speaker 3: allow banks to reintroduce right now, you basically, if you
16:36
Speaker 3: get a mortgage of any kind, it's pretty much illegal
16:38
Speaker 3: for a bank to offer a penalty. It can't be sold.
16:42
Speaker 3: It's not conforming. It's basically they just don't know. So
16:46
Speaker 3: his thought is, Okay, if you start allowing let's call
16:50
Speaker 3: it a thirty year mortgage with a fifteen year pre
16:52
Speaker 3: payment penalty, would the bank be willing to offer a
16:56
Speaker 3: lower rate? I would think yes, would then would be
17:00
Speaker 3: willing to take it. I'm not sure, but I thought
17:04
Speaker 3: about it long and hard, and my answer is I
17:05
Speaker 3: don't think it's going to dradtically reshape affordability in the
17:08
Speaker 3: housing market. But I don't see why we wouldn't allow it.
17:12
Speaker 2: So let's just I'm just I'm trying to think through
17:15
Speaker 2: this because I've literally never thought about pre payment penalties
17:17
Speaker 2: in my life. Sure, I just it's not what's the
17:21
Speaker 2: reason why they're generally not allowed?
17:24
Speaker 4: I don't know.
17:25
Speaker 3: As part of the Dodd Frank Act. Okay, I think
17:29
Speaker 3: probably there are a whole bunch of really complex types
17:32
Speaker 3: of mortgages prior to eight that got people in a
17:35
Speaker 3: lot of trouble financially, and they kind of tried to
17:38
Speaker 3: simplify the living heck out of them, kind of all
17:40
Speaker 3: the balloon payments, get rid of all the crazy mortgage
17:43
Speaker 3: styles that were out there, and just make it pretty clear.
17:45
Speaker 4: So let's think through this.
17:46
Speaker 2: If let's say that I have a six percent mortgage
17:49
Speaker 2: with no prepayment penalty. If I want, I can make
17:52
Speaker 2: extra payments towards that and pay it off sooner and
17:54
Speaker 2: pay less interest. Correct compare that to and I don't
17:57
Speaker 2: know if this is how much of the difference would be.
17:58
Speaker 4: Let's say there's a.
17:59
Speaker 2: Five and a half half percent mortgage, but I can't
18:02
Speaker 2: prepay anything.
18:04
Speaker 4: Is that.
18:06
Speaker 3: Bad for me relative to the six Obviously depends on
18:15
Speaker 3: whether or not you can afford to make extra payments.
18:17
Speaker 3: I like the optionality, I like the choice, I like
18:21
Speaker 3: the idea of it, and I like sitting there and
18:25
Speaker 3: going through the thought exercise as I'm buying a home
18:27
Speaker 3: of saying, Okay, I can get my six percent, I
18:29
Speaker 3: can get my fifteen year mortgage at five point seven percent,
18:31
Speaker 3: or I can get this thirty year with the prepayment.
18:33
Speaker 5: At five four I'm making up a number.
18:36
Speaker 4: Yeah.
18:37
Speaker 3: Again, doesn't solve any of the problems. Nor, by the way,
18:40
Speaker 3: does blocking corporate buyers of you know, buying new single
18:45
Speaker 3: family residences. It does not solve any of the affordability problems.
18:50
Speaker 3: They own about half a percent of current single family homes,
18:53
Speaker 3: so it's not likely to make a big change there,
18:55
Speaker 3: but there's been a lot of proposals on housing over
18:58
Speaker 3: the course of the last few weeks. It seems to
18:59
Speaker 3: be the thing that everyone wants to comment on right now.
19:03
Speaker 2: And I'll return to my statement, I think we're fighting
19:05
Speaker 2: the last battle there because I think within the next
19:08
Speaker 2: two to three years, I don't think housing affordability is
19:11
Speaker 2: going to be the issue that it's been over the.
19:13
Speaker 4: Last two to three ten to degree.
19:14
Speaker 2: And so I think we're fighting the last battle there,
19:18
Speaker 2: and we're gonna probably end up doing something that's not
19:20
Speaker 2: necessary because housing it's a slow moving market, like it
19:26
Speaker 2: doesn't just turn on a dime. So we'll see where
19:30
Speaker 2: things go. Quick break here.
19:31
Speaker 3: When we come back, we've got Trivia Answer and Wall
19:33
Speaker 3: Street Watch.
19:41
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day.
19:45
Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:51
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete look at
19:54
Speaker 1: what's moving market so far today right here on the
19:57
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:00
Speaker 6: After a pretty choppy week, markets on this Friday are
20:03
Speaker 6: really flat and mixed.
20:05
Speaker 4: Right now.
20:06
Speaker 6: The Dow is down by only four points, SMP five
20:09
Speaker 6: hundred is up about a tenth of a percent or
20:12
Speaker 6: nine points higher, Nasdak up over a tenth of percent
20:16
Speaker 6: or thirty two points higher, RUSS two thousands up nearly
20:19
Speaker 6: three tenths of a percent, ten, You're Treasure reeled up
20:22
Speaker 6: four basis points now at four point two zero seven percent,
20:26
Speaker 6: and crude oil up one and a quarter percent, rating
20:29
Speaker 6: just below sixty dollars a barrel. Several chip makers are
20:34
Speaker 6: edging higher following yesterday's upward movement, driven by a record
20:38
Speaker 6: quarter from Taiwan Semiconductor. Meanwhile, logistics company JB Hunt recorded
20:43
Speaker 6: lower quarterly revenue as transcontinental load volumes declined. Jp Hunt
20:47
Speaker 6: shares are dipping elsewhere. Nover Nordisk, that stock is up
20:51
Speaker 6: four percent on optimism about the drug maker's new weight
20:55
Speaker 6: loss pill. The UK also approved a higher dose of
20:58
Speaker 6: we Go v fo BCD. Pace competitor Eli Lilly is
21:02
Speaker 6: now up actually one percent after seeing losses in early trading.
21:06
Speaker 6: More bank earnings. After PNC Financial reported to higher quarterly
21:09
Speaker 6: profit on the back of loan growth and increased demand
21:12
Speaker 6: for its financial services, P and C stock is up
21:15
Speaker 6: three percent. M and T Bank also posted a higher
21:19
Speaker 6: fourth quarter profit, lifted by growth in net interest income.
21:23
Speaker 6: That stock is down nearly one percent, however, and Honeywell
21:26
Speaker 6: shares are up by about two percent after the industrial
21:30
Speaker 6: giant was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan
21:33
Speaker 6: with the Banks cited Honeywell's planned breakup. I'm Tucker Silva
21:39
Speaker 6: and that is Wall Street Watch. And in the previous
21:41
Speaker 6: segment we asked you the trivia question, which is right
21:45
Speaker 6: here in my hands now, which US president is the
21:48
Speaker 6: only recipient of the Medal of honor? That would be
21:51
Speaker 6: Teddy Roosevelt. Haven't heard that answer in a while. Stephen Rochester,
21:55
Speaker 6: New Hampshire is our winner today taking on the Financial
21:58
Speaker 6: Exchange Show. Teacher, congrats to Eve. We play trivia every
22:02
Speaker 6: day here in the Financial looks Change. See complete contest
22:04
Speaker 6: rules at Financial looks Change Show dot com.
22:08
Speaker 2: Uh China and Canada announcing reciprocal terror relief after a
22:15
Speaker 2: meeting between Xijingping and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and
22:21
Speaker 2: I'll just quote here from the BBC. China is expected
22:23
Speaker 2: to lower levees on Canadian canola oil.
22:26
Speaker 4: Who you ever grown canola?
22:29
Speaker 3: No, but I've been to Western Canada and seeing the
22:31
Speaker 3: beautiful yellow field fields.
22:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's something to uh, you know, see.
22:37
Speaker 4: Before you die.
22:39
Speaker 3: So I looked at this story and frankly, this is
22:42
Speaker 3: not fixing relations between Canada and China by any stretch
22:47
Speaker 3: of the imagination. But I do look at this as
22:50
Speaker 3: a downstream impact of tariffs on Canadian goods. Right like
22:55
Speaker 3: there there hasn't been a ton of movement between the
22:59
Speaker 3: US and Canada, clearly a lot of friction, and I
23:01
Speaker 3: see this as an additional step, just like when you know,
23:05
Speaker 3: American liquor was removed from shelves in Canada. And specifically,
23:11
Speaker 3: what we're seeing here is Chinese made cars making their
23:15
Speaker 3: way into a market that's very close to the United States.
23:19
Speaker 3: And that piece I find interesting because part of the
23:22
Speaker 3: whole tariff problem and debate was, hey, we're just not
23:25
Speaker 3: going to really allow even American car manufacturers to manufacture
23:31
Speaker 3: in Canada, and Canada saying okay, well, if that's going
23:36
Speaker 3: to be the case, we want a backup plan, and
23:39
Speaker 3: the backup plan that they're turning to is China.
23:42
Speaker 5: For the moment, I.
23:43
Speaker 4: Gotta say, the backup plan's dumb.
23:46
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think. I don't think it's going to
23:47
Speaker 5: be great for Canada.
23:49
Speaker 2: No, here's the thing, so it's Canada is going to
23:51
Speaker 2: allow Chinese evs into the country at the most favored
23:55
Speaker 2: nation tax rate of six point one percent. Right now,
23:58
Speaker 2: they're tariffed at one hundred cent rate. Okay, here's the
24:01
Speaker 2: thing about Chinese evs. By all accounts, they are perfectly fine,
24:07
Speaker 2: cromulent automobiles. They're very much ahead of Western counterparts in
24:13
Speaker 2: some respects. They're also very very cheap. The reason that
24:17
Speaker 2: they are very very cheap is because the Chinese EV
24:20
Speaker 2: makers receive exorbitant subsidies from the Chinese government to overproduce
24:25
Speaker 2: them to the point where they're basically having to dump
24:28
Speaker 2: them overseas because they can't sell.
24:30
Speaker 4: Them all in China and want.
24:32
Speaker 2: To use them to basically decimate the local automotive industries
24:37
Speaker 2: of other countries that they sell them into.
24:39
Speaker 3: So I agree here that Canada might be shooting themselves
24:42
Speaker 3: in the foot. But it's not as though Canada has
24:44
Speaker 3: some large homegrown auto company that is, you know, proud
24:49
Speaker 3: Canadian company that manufactures autos. They mainly do manufacturing for
24:54
Speaker 3: American auto companies, which they still and if that's buying
24:57
Speaker 3: and if that's drying up, well where do they by
25:00
Speaker 3: their cars from? Like those companies like, you know, like,
25:04
Speaker 3: but I guess the point would be if those plants
25:06
Speaker 3: are closing down otherwise, right if they if the all
25:10
Speaker 3: the Canadians who are working for Ford and GM are
25:12
Speaker 3: on the verge of losing their jobs, what are you
25:16
Speaker 3: trying to defend in Canada?
25:18
Speaker 4: I would hope stuff.
25:20
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's kind of like saying, well, you know,
25:24
Speaker 3: we're losing the hens to flu right now, we might
25:26
Speaker 3: as well open the house to the fox.
25:28
Speaker 5: I'm with you, Yeah, I agree.
25:30
Speaker 3: I just think the incentives are different than the US market,
25:33
Speaker 3: where we have something to protect here, and I think
25:35
Speaker 3: the Canadians are looking at and saying, we are losing
25:37
Speaker 3: the thing that we wanted to protect previously.
25:39
Speaker 5: So open it up. Bad decision, But I see how
25:44
Speaker 5: they got there.
25:45
Speaker 2: This is why I do not believe that Canada is
25:49
Speaker 2: a credible partner that wants to actually change trade with
25:55
Speaker 2: China in any way.
25:57
Speaker 5: I tend to agree, you know, and I'm not sure
25:59
Speaker 5: we've that partner.
26:01
Speaker 2: When people talk about like, oh, we want to build
26:03
Speaker 2: consensus and work with other you know, trade partners to
26:05
Speaker 2: form you know, a barrier against China, I'm not sure
26:09
Speaker 2: Canada is reliable in that respect. I'm not saying like
26:12
Speaker 2: that they're unreliable like overall, but I'm saying when it
26:15
Speaker 2: comes to China, it's pretty clear that the Canadian government
26:19
Speaker 2: wants a closer working relationship with China, and I'm not
26:26
Speaker 2: sure that's in their best interest long term.
26:28
Speaker 4: Yeah.
26:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, this story came as a pretty big surprise to me.
26:33
Speaker 2: It's not I'm not really surprised by Europe does the
26:36
Speaker 2: same things. Europe talks a tough game and then Germany's like,
26:38
Speaker 2: oh fine, like whatever you want, like import the cars
26:41
Speaker 2: here and take out our you know, domestic auto industry.
26:43
Speaker 2: Like it's a It really feels like those governments do
26:48
Speaker 2: not have serious aspirations to stand up to Chinese economic coercion.
26:55
Speaker 3: Folks, if you happen to be listening to us in
26:56
Speaker 3: New Hampshire and either WQSO or gi R, you may
27:00
Speaker 3: already know that they are in the second of a
27:02
Speaker 3: two day event called Lending a Helping can which is
27:04
Speaker 3: a five toh one C three nonprofit that raises money
27:08
Speaker 3: for twelve agencies to feed the needy and homeless in
27:11
Speaker 3: New Hampshire and Vermont. Some of the agencies that benefit
27:14
Speaker 3: include families in transition, my Friend's Place, the Salvation Army
27:17
Speaker 3: of Manchester and Portsmouth and the New Hampshire Food Bank.
27:20
Speaker 3: The event has raised more than three million dollars since
27:23
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety. It'll continue until seven pm tonight. Anyone listening
27:28
Speaker 3: on WGR in Manchester or WQSO and Portsmouth that would
27:32
Speaker 3: like to contribute to this cause or bid on any
27:35
Speaker 3: of their online auction items, you can visit Rock one
27:39
Speaker 3: oh one fm dot com. That's Rock one oh one
27:42
Speaker 3: fm dot com.
27:45
Speaker 2: Let's see do we want to talk about and harek No,
27:48
Speaker 2: it's not. Let's take a break here. Actually, Paul Monica
27:51
Speaker 2: from Baron's is going to join us, so let's make
27:52
Speaker 2: sure we leave enough time for our chat with Paul
27:55
Speaker 2: and he will join us right after this.
27:58
Speaker 1: The Financially Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
28:02
Speaker 1: page and stay up to date on breaking business news
28:05
Speaker 1: all morning. Long Face is the Financial Exchange Radio network.
28:09
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is now available every day from eleven
28:12
Speaker 1: to noon Non Serious XM's business radio channel one thirty two.
28:16
Speaker 1: Stay informed about the latest from Wall Street, fiscal policy,
28:19
Speaker 1: and breaking business news every day. The Financial Exchange is
28:22
Speaker 1: live on Serious XM's business radio Channel one thirty two.
28:26
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network, Ladies and gentlemen
28:32
Speaker 1: the weekend.
28:35
Speaker 6: If you happen to miss any of our shows from
28:37
Speaker 6: this week, you can find them on our YouTube page.
28:40
Speaker 6: We stream the show live every day, but also archive
28:43
Speaker 6: every hour and all of our most newsworthy interviews. Go
28:47
Speaker 6: to YouTube search for the Financial Exchange Radio Show and
28:52
Speaker 6: hit that subscribe button.
28:54
Speaker 4: As problems.
28:55
Speaker 2: We're now joined by Paul and Monica from Barons here
28:59
Speaker 2: to talk a little bit of out Imax stock.
29:01
Speaker 4: Paul, how you doing today?
29:03
Speaker 7: I'm good?
29:03
Speaker 4: Thanks?
29:04
Speaker 5: How you guys don't doing well?
29:05
Speaker 4: How many movies did you see in theaters last year?
29:09
Speaker 7: You know, I didn't see all that many. I could
29:12
Speaker 7: probably count on one hand, I mean, less than five.
29:16
Speaker 7: I you know, like many do a lot of streaming
29:20
Speaker 7: these days, Netflix, HBO, Max, Disney plus what have you.
29:26
Speaker 7: We and the kids pretty much got all the subscriptions.
29:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw one in theaters and uh it was
29:32
Speaker 2: and that was it. But despite that, and look, I
29:36
Speaker 2: know that I'm not the whole universe, I know, but
29:39
Speaker 2: despite you know, dropping overall attendance at theaters, Imax stock
29:45
Speaker 2: up almost I mean at one point, almost doubling last
29:49
Speaker 2: year and still up you know, like basically ninety percent
29:52
Speaker 2: in the last twelve months or so. What is driving
29:55
Speaker 2: Imax in that way when everything else, you know, Netflix
29:58
Speaker 2: picking up Warner Brother Discovery and everything else going on
30:01
Speaker 2: is pointing towards the death of theaters.
30:04
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that the concerns for the movie theater
30:08
Speaker 7: business are probably more about what it might mean, you know,
30:14
Speaker 7: the consolidation in Hollywood for the likes of AMC and
30:19
Speaker 7: Cinema and the traditional movie chains. When you look at Imax,
30:23
Speaker 7: the fact that they are a real experience, the giant screens,
30:30
Speaker 7: the you know, the amazing sound. You know, it really
30:33
Speaker 7: does cater itself to the big blockbuster movies that people
30:42
Speaker 7: want to see and have an experience, as opposed to say, smaller,
30:47
Speaker 7: more intimate films that are going to get all the
30:50
Speaker 7: Oscar nominations. You don't need to see that in an
30:55
Speaker 7: Imax film, you know, Imax theater. You can probably watch
30:58
Speaker 7: that at home and be fine. So I think that's
31:01
Speaker 7: one reason why Imax is holding up better, and their
31:04
Speaker 7: box office shows it that. You know, we had only
31:07
Speaker 7: about a one percent increase in domestic box office for
31:10
Speaker 7: the entire industry in twenty twenty five. But you know
31:14
Speaker 7: IMAX's US box office revenue, We're up about fourteen percent.
31:18
Speaker 7: And even Netflix isn't shying away from Imax. They have
31:24
Speaker 7: a deal in place to have the new Narnia movie
31:28
Speaker 7: coming out later this year be shown exclusively in Imax
31:32
Speaker 7: for two weeks before it goes to Netflix.
31:36
Speaker 2: What is IMAX doing as far as expanding their theater presence, Like,
31:42
Speaker 2: do we have any numbers on how many theaters they
31:43
Speaker 2: have and how many they're trying to add each year?
31:46
Speaker 7: Or is that that's a great question. I don't have
31:48
Speaker 7: that off the top of my head.
31:49
Speaker 4: I have to look that up.
31:50
Speaker 7: But yes, Imax obviously has been expanded.
31:58
Speaker 1: Just lost Paul.
32:00
Speaker 2: I think we lost Paul for a second. They we're
32:02
Speaker 2: gonna work on getting him back. Tucker's pushing the buttons,
32:07
Speaker 2: and I'm sure we'll have him.
32:08
Speaker 1: I got him on the phone.
32:09
Speaker 4: You got him on the phone. God forbid.
32:11
Speaker 6: A piece of paper touches equipment and then we lose
32:14
Speaker 6: the Latle Monica. That's what That's exactly what happened. Technology, Tucker,
32:19
Speaker 6: A piece of paper touch that thing right there.
32:21
Speaker 2: Why don't you have a paperless office. Yeah, you know,
32:24
Speaker 2: it seems like there's an easy solution to this. We're
32:26
Speaker 2: talking about IMAX and everything. Just get rid of the paper.
32:29
Speaker 3: While we're waiting for Paul dose Ekis is trying to
32:32
Speaker 3: bring back the most interesting man in the world. I'm
32:35
Speaker 3: more guys eighty seven, Well, I'm busy. Uh it's not you.
32:39
Speaker 4: Oh no.
32:40
Speaker 3: A second time we've had to refer to the fact
32:42
Speaker 3: that the world is not revolved around Chucksada.
32:44
Speaker 2: I'm actually segment. I'm probably closest the most boring man
32:47
Speaker 2: in the world.
32:47
Speaker 3: It's like I go home, I eat dinner, I put
32:49
Speaker 3: my kids to bed, and I'm in bed by eight
32:51
Speaker 3: thirty most there. So I know that beer is having
32:53
Speaker 3: some popularity problems right now, but I just really hope
32:56
Speaker 3: that bringing back an eighty seven year old spokesperson warre
33:00
Speaker 3: your beer brand actually works because it could end up being.
33:04
Speaker 4: A little bit.
33:05
Speaker 3: Sad if it doesn't go the right way. Here's why
33:07
Speaker 3: it was one of my favorite ad campaigns. Was the
33:10
Speaker 3: most interesting manager. That's why I think I went as
33:12
Speaker 3: him for Halloween once.
33:14
Speaker 4: How'd it work?
33:15
Speaker 3: I dyed my hair gray, I had a scar in
33:17
Speaker 3: my pocket, I wore a suit.
33:19
Speaker 4: Did it play well?
33:20
Speaker 5: Yeah, people got it.
33:22
Speaker 4: Here's why I think it's going to work.
33:24
Speaker 2: It's not because they're desperate and just trying to like
33:27
Speaker 2: reach back into that bag for something that worked before.
33:30
Speaker 2: It's that if you look at basically all major marketing
33:32
Speaker 2: campaigns from large companies right now, they're all targeting millennial
33:36
Speaker 2: nostalgia dolgia, and it is working. Like we're seeing that
33:40
Speaker 2: in like the actual data. And so just like there's
33:44
Speaker 2: a reason why VW brought back the Beetle in the
33:47
Speaker 2: nineties because of boomer nostalgia for you know, their heyday. Yeah,
33:50
Speaker 2: all these companies are trying to bring back what was
33:52
Speaker 2: big in the nineties and two thousands now because millennials
33:56
Speaker 2: are no longer just you know, we're not just the
33:58
Speaker 2: lazy avocado toe, you know, it's no, They're the biggest
34:04
Speaker 2: demographic out there now with the biggest spending pool. And
34:07
Speaker 2: so that's that's why they're being targeted. Paul, we got
34:10
Speaker 2: you back now, I am here. Okay, fantastic, So imax,
34:16
Speaker 2: what else about their business is you know interesting in
34:20
Speaker 2: the context of the evolving media landscape.
34:23
Speaker 8: Yeah, like I said, I mean I think that the
34:25
Speaker 8: big issue that investors had been maybe worried about. Why
34:29
Speaker 8: the stock I think fell a little bit after the
34:33
Speaker 8: Netflix Warner Brothers Discovery Studio deal was announced was that,
34:38
Speaker 8: you know again another potential sign of you know, the
34:43
Speaker 8: the movie business shifting to more of a streaming reality.
34:47
Speaker 8: But I think you know, and you're hearing this with
34:51
Speaker 8: you know, companies that did another story uh this week
34:54
Speaker 8: about you know, hotel chains how well they're doing. Consumers
34:58
Speaker 8: still like these experiences, and it may be something as
35:04
Speaker 8: lavish as a nice vacation, and it could be as
35:08
Speaker 8: something as you know, more simple, like you know, spending
35:12
Speaker 8: you know, however much ticket to you know what twenty
35:15
Speaker 8: or so dollars for you know, a price the movie ticket.
35:19
Speaker 8: You know, it's it's expensive, you know, compared to what
35:21
Speaker 8: movies used to cost. But I think people see it
35:24
Speaker 8: as a sort of affordable luxury. And you know, watching
35:28
Speaker 8: you know, for example, uh, you know, the next Marvel movie.
35:34
Speaker 8: I think that that really kind of lends itself to
35:38
Speaker 8: that big screen and communal experience supposed to you know,
35:42
Speaker 8: watching it with your family on, even if it's a
35:45
Speaker 8: big screen TV with your fancy sound system, not the
35:49
Speaker 8: same as you know, watching it in a movie theater,
35:52
Speaker 8: like an IMAX theater. So I think that's why i'm
35:54
Speaker 8: ax has been holding up better than other movie theater chains.
35:58
Speaker 8: And again it depends on the movie. You're not gonna
36:00
Speaker 8: go watch yo some king speech com You're not yet exactly.
36:08
Speaker 2: Paul, appreciate you joining us today. Thanks so much for
36:10
Speaker 2: the time, and we'll catch up with you next week.
36:14
Speaker 7: Perfect.
36:14
Speaker 8: Thanks Black.
36:15
Speaker 3: As Paul Monica from Baron's talking about IMAX counterpoint, I
36:20
Speaker 3: was out at my brother in law's sister and brother
36:23
Speaker 3: in law's home in Indiana over Christmas break, and they
36:26
Speaker 3: had a home theater with instead of a projector, a
36:30
Speaker 3: ninety eight inch television, which is as large as.
36:33
Speaker 5: It sounds, And so I was just intrigued. Best Buy.
36:38
Speaker 3: I don't know this brand, High Sense ninety eight inch
36:40
Speaker 3: vision one thousand bucks.
36:43
Speaker 6: That's not the worst. I thought would have been more
36:45
Speaker 6: than that.
36:45
Speaker 5: What didn't you.
36:46
Speaker 2: It's huge because it's a Chinese company dumping stuff into
36:50
Speaker 2: the United States.
36:51
Speaker 5: The Samsung One's nine. I'm not saying like, don't buy it.
36:54
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like, that's why it happens, Like that
36:57
Speaker 3: is outrageously changing. I know, like if there's one place
37:00
Speaker 3: that you can't complain about inflation.
37:02
Speaker 4: It's TVs. How is it that cheap?
37:06
Speaker 5: You know, like it's gonna cost me more to hire
37:08
Speaker 5: somebody to mount it.
37:10
Speaker 3: I mean you gotta have like do you have to
37:12
Speaker 3: like raise your ceilings in order to put that on
37:14
Speaker 3: the wall.
37:14
Speaker 4: I don't know.
37:16
Speaker 3: Ninety eight in Like that's huge, I'm doing them. That's
37:19
Speaker 3: eight feet.
37:20
Speaker 2: Of TV diagonally, Well it's eight feet diagonally, yeah, two
37:25
Speaker 2: inches actually, but like pretty awesome, pretty awesome. A lot
37:29
Speaker 2: of I remember as a kid, like we were saying
37:31
Speaker 2: it was like, oh, there's like a twenty seven inch
37:33
Speaker 2: one in this room, like you get that.
37:34
Speaker 5: The main thing we did with that TV.
37:36
Speaker 2: Back of it was this big Oh yeah, you needed
37:38
Speaker 2: three people to carry him because they weighed one hundred
37:40
Speaker 2: and fifty pounds.
37:41
Speaker 3: Game after game of Mario Kart on the ninety eight
37:43
Speaker 3: inch television was a pretty solid way to spend most
37:46
Speaker 3: of my vacation. It's like you're actually driving the cart. Yeah, yeah,
37:51
Speaker 3: I don't know how we got here. Movie theaters, yes.
37:54
Speaker 6: Well, which I haven't been to in five years.
37:56
Speaker 4: I saw that one last year. It's fine.
37:59
Speaker 5: I have been five years dude ringing endorsement.
38:02
Speaker 2: It was fine, like perfectly cromulent experience. I love that word,
38:06
Speaker 2: by the way, because like everyone thinks you're being like
38:09
Speaker 2: mean about something. It's like, no, it was fine, just
38:12
Speaker 2: you know, fancily fine. Let's take a quick cromulent break
38:16
Speaker 2: for the weekend and we'll see you next week.
38:19
Speaker 4: H have a great weekend.