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NBA Finals Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Shad Molman
0:14
Speaker 1: of the Action Network. We are part of the Volume
0:17
Speaker 1: podcast Network today. I am joined as always buy my cost,
0:24
Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre, my bff Professional Better, Simon Hunter.
0:30
Speaker 2: Ed O, Simon Schad. How are we doing, brother dude?
0:34
Speaker 1: We had a little date night last week. You and
0:37
Speaker 1: I we shared a cheese steak and Philly we ate
0:42
Speaker 1: it on the back of your trunk, just sitting on
0:44
Speaker 1: the bumper. Cars trying to go down one way streets,
0:49
Speaker 1: horns blaring, bicycle cops coming around, not even taking notice
0:53
Speaker 1: of the way you're illegally parked. We went to the
0:57
Speaker 1: Phillies game. It was a perfect night in Philly, and
1:04
Speaker 1: I will contend that one of the best sort of
1:08
Speaker 1: leisurely sports experiences is going to Citizens Bank Ballpark to
1:16
Speaker 1: watch the Phillies on a beautiful night with my bff Sigmon.
1:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a good night. Picked you up in
1:23
Speaker 2: the M eight love showing off the car and BMW.
1:26
Speaker 2: I know that you guys just sponsored JJ Reddick's podcast.
1:29
Speaker 2: He's gone never coming back. If you want to come
1:31
Speaker 2: sponsor me and chat, I literally drive an m E
1:33
Speaker 2: come sponsor our show BMW. Please. Yeah, I picked up
1:37
Speaker 2: Chat and I thought to myself, can Chat eat a
1:39
Speaker 2: whole cheese steak? And I thought himself, I eat a
1:41
Speaker 2: whole cheese steak before this baseball game. That's risky move
1:44
Speaker 2: because we're all to be sitting in a ballpark for
1:46
Speaker 2: four hours. So I took the I took the Dela Rossie,
1:50
Speaker 2: which is you know, if you're a local, you know
1:52
Speaker 2: the spot. It's known for its pizza and there's cheese steaks.
1:54
Speaker 2: And yeah, I gave you the authentic experience eating on
1:57
Speaker 2: the back of the car. I feel like is a
1:59
Speaker 2: very city thing to do. And like Chad said, not
2:03
Speaker 2: a single person paid us any type of mind. That's how,
2:06
Speaker 2: you know, just normal it is in Philadelphia. And yeah,
2:10
Speaker 2: the baseball game wise, you know, great seats. Chad and
2:13
Speaker 2: I have done enough gambling and been in enough baseball games.
2:16
Speaker 2: We knew that game was over within I think it
2:18
Speaker 2: was a four to nothing at one point in the
2:20
Speaker 2: land and we both threw knew each other just basically
2:22
Speaker 2: said this game is over and our under bet is dead.
2:24
Speaker 2: Of course it.
2:25
Speaker 1: Was no, no, no, no, no, no, that's not how it went.
2:29
Speaker 1: Number one, I will tell you I had half a
2:32
Speaker 1: cheese steak. I don't think I've had as many calories
2:36
Speaker 1: combined since we saw each other as I had in
2:40
Speaker 1: that one half of a cheese steak. Number two. It
2:45
Speaker 1: was Zach Wheeler Chris Sale. The game was rolling, nothing, nothing,
2:51
Speaker 1: Everything's going great. And you looked at me at one
2:54
Speaker 1: point and you said, how about that under And I said, well,
3:00
Speaker 1: I said, what the fuck is your problem? Have you
3:03
Speaker 1: never gambled before? That's like the most mush thing you
3:08
Speaker 1: could say. Literally, the top half of the next inning,
3:14
Speaker 1: the Braves score two runs. They got men on first
3:20
Speaker 1: and third, they hit a double. No, they've scored two runs.
3:25
Speaker 1: I look at you, I don't even say anything, and
3:27
Speaker 1: you go, we're fine. As long as we avoid the meltdown,
3:30
Speaker 1: we're fine. Next batter double, two more runs scored. It's
3:36
Speaker 1: four nothing. Then then the Phillies strand the bases loaded,
3:42
Speaker 1: so then it's still for nothing. And then it's like
3:45
Speaker 1: a pitching change. In the sixth we're like, let's get
3:47
Speaker 1: out of here. We get to the car, and because
3:49
Speaker 1: your ma drives at the speed of light, we were
3:54
Speaker 1: at my hotel and by the time I passed the
3:57
Speaker 1: bar which was fifteen minutes later, Phillies were down. Ain't
4:00
Speaker 1: nothing and they.
4:02
Speaker 2: Have We dig get a lovely sunset though chat, which
4:04
Speaker 2: made it all worth it.
4:05
Speaker 1: We got a lovely sunset. I texted it to my family.
4:08
Speaker 1: Not a single person responded. Listen, we got a big,
4:12
Speaker 1: big show today because the NBA Finals tip off. You
4:14
Speaker 1: know how much I love the NBA. I know you
4:16
Speaker 1: love the NBA. Uh. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been
4:20
Speaker 1: amazing in these playoffs. Just defensive monsters, shake Gilgess, Alexander
4:28
Speaker 1: has been obviously dominant offensively. Jalen Williams has been amazing
4:32
Speaker 1: to me. The Pacers, sure, they're a surprise, but in
4:37
Speaker 1: the second round. I remember sitting watching the games and
4:39
Speaker 1: I said to my kid, I feel like the only
4:42
Speaker 1: team in the Eastern Conference running any offensive plays right
4:45
Speaker 1: now are the Innana Pacers. And if there is justice
4:49
Speaker 1: in this world, we're going to get the two most sound, competent,
4:54
Speaker 1: high IQ teams playing in the finals, the Pacers in
4:57
Speaker 1: the Thunder. That's what we're getting. Thank god. NBA Analyst
5:03
Speaker 1: Action Network OG one of the most respected media voices
5:10
Speaker 1: in the NBA, one of the original original analytics gurus,
5:16
Speaker 1: in the NBA covering everything NBA playoffs on buckets are Man,
5:24
Speaker 1: Matt Moore, my brother, dude. I know, like the world
5:30
Speaker 1: isn't thrilled. It's okay. See in Indie, I couldn't be happier.
5:34
Speaker 1: I think it's the It's gonna be the best basketball
5:37
Speaker 1: played that we could have possibly gotten.
5:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be like if if if two teams
5:42
Speaker 3: got together and every hoop head loved it and nobody heard.
5:45
Speaker 4: It, what does it make a sound? That's that's the
5:47
Speaker 4: question here.
5:48
Speaker 3: And you know what, Like I muted ratings on social
5:51
Speaker 3: media because I'm just like, I don't care, man, this
5:52
Speaker 3: is gonna be an awesome series.
5:54
Speaker 4: You got Indiana Plan.
5:56
Speaker 3: They play so up tempo, it's not even like it's
6:00
Speaker 3: not just fast break stuff, but they play they are
6:03
Speaker 3: in your face, at your throat every single possession. I've
6:08
Speaker 3: likened them to a punk rock team where they're just
6:09
Speaker 3: like every single song they are going right for the kill.
6:13
Speaker 4: That's how they play.
6:14
Speaker 3: And then you got Oklahoma City, who have seriously bent
6:18
Speaker 3: my brain as far as usually with turnovers. I'm like, well,
6:22
Speaker 3: you know you can always like play sound and avoid Nope,
6:25
Speaker 3: not versus OKC, they're just taking the ball from you
6:28
Speaker 3: go in the other direction. It's gonna be, I think,
6:31
Speaker 3: a really fun series of games. It's gonna be a
6:34
Speaker 3: lot of athleticism, a lot of young guys. This is
6:37
Speaker 3: the thunder of the second youngest team to make the
6:40
Speaker 3: finals since the seventy seven Blazers. They be the second
6:43
Speaker 3: youngest team to win the title since the seventy seven Blazers.
6:45
Speaker 3: Pacers are on the young side. It's a new era
6:48
Speaker 3: in the NBA. Can't wait to watch the series.
6:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting because they are both so good defensively,
6:57
Speaker 1: also incredibly high teams. I keep I look at the
7:03
Speaker 1: Pacers and I feel like their floor is so high.
7:08
Speaker 1: I don't you know. Obviously they're stealing is higher than
7:11
Speaker 1: anyone thought because they're they've made it to the finals,
7:14
Speaker 1: but the floor of their baseline of competency is just
7:18
Speaker 1: so high. And they're so complimentary Nemharv who got so
7:22
Speaker 1: much credit in Game six guarding. Brunson has been like
7:26
Speaker 1: that for two years as sort of a defensive stopper,
7:31
Speaker 1: a guy who can dribble to the middle of the
7:33
Speaker 1: lane to get his shot. Normally it's going in a
7:35
Speaker 1: great mid range, Like, I love love this team, and
7:41
Speaker 1: defensively the way they play, as you point out, it's
7:46
Speaker 1: so different. The Pacers are so freaking physical. They might
7:49
Speaker 1: not get as many turnovers, although the Knicks, you know,
7:52
Speaker 1: we're incompetent. The thunder, it feels like sometimes you can't
7:55
Speaker 1: get past center court because when they've got Caruso in
7:59
Speaker 1: there and Williams in there, their arms are so long,
8:02
Speaker 1: they're in every passing lane. They're brilliant defensively and so
8:06
Speaker 1: different defensively.
8:08
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, see, I haven't seen a defense like this
8:11
Speaker 3: in a long time. Like you got to go back
8:13
Speaker 3: to four pistons to get a team this good defensively.
8:16
Speaker 3: Fifteen Warriors is up there, but I think this team's
8:19
Speaker 3: is legitimately better defensively. Their ability, it's not just that
8:23
Speaker 3: they steal passes, they're not gambling. It's that they're able
8:26
Speaker 3: to maintain gap discipline while also forcing those turnovers.
8:31
Speaker 4: They're disrupting your handle.
8:33
Speaker 3: Nikola Jokic has never been as flummix and as frustrated
8:36
Speaker 3: as I saw him in that series, where there was
8:39
Speaker 3: just possessions where he would turn and they're just taking
8:41
Speaker 3: the ball away from him and the home court advantage,
8:43
Speaker 3: I think is a huge part of that as well,
8:46
Speaker 3: because in that building it's so loud, those fans are
8:49
Speaker 3: so good.
8:49
Speaker 4: You can't hear the call outs of.
8:52
Speaker 3: Hey guys coming behind you, like Wolflee get you can't
8:54
Speaker 3: hear those callouts behind you, and then all of a sudden,
8:57
Speaker 3: you turn and the ball is just being ripped away
8:58
Speaker 3: from you and going the other direction. They have so
9:01
Speaker 3: many good defenders, like Shae is second in the league
9:04
Speaker 3: in steals. He is a perfectly good defender, and he's
9:08
Speaker 3: like the seventh best defender on this squad. You got
9:10
Speaker 3: home grind, you got Hartenstein defending down low. That allows
9:13
Speaker 3: the guards to play more physical to the perimeter and
9:16
Speaker 3: really attack the handle and force them the other direction.
9:19
Speaker 3: You've got you know you mentioned Caruso. The secret guy
9:22
Speaker 3: is Jalen Williams Jadab.
9:25
Speaker 4: When I did the.
9:26
Speaker 3: MVP work on Shay and I was watching all of
9:29
Speaker 3: Shay's defensive possessions when he was on the court, the guy.
9:31
Speaker 4: That stood out was Jadub.
9:32
Speaker 3: He's everywhere, man like jumping up and stealing passes out
9:37
Speaker 3: of the air from the guy right there, weak side
9:41
Speaker 3: blocks underneath, challenging and being physical with guys like this
9:46
Speaker 3: is he is such a game changer for them defensively
9:50
Speaker 3: as good as Ludor is, and they all agree he's
9:52
Speaker 3: the best defender as good as Caruso is. And everyone
9:55
Speaker 3: agrees Caruso is the second best Caruso by the way,
9:58
Speaker 3: says Case and Wallace is third. Jadov's versatility is what
10:02
Speaker 3: like separates them. He is like he is that linebacker
10:06
Speaker 3: that can play in coverage. He can blitz, he can drop,
10:10
Speaker 3: he can play man like. He is unbelievable in how
10:14
Speaker 3: many things that he can do and that you add
10:16
Speaker 3: all that up together, and when they are in sync,
10:18
Speaker 3: it is a nightmare for teams to deal with.
10:21
Speaker 1: So when you look at these teams, Uh, what's interesting
10:25
Speaker 1: is you could argue this is the Paul George Finals
10:30
Speaker 1: because both of these teams were built off of trades
10:36
Speaker 1: when Paul George was the marquee player for each team.
10:41
Speaker 1: Before we get into the game one breakdown, I know
10:44
Speaker 1: Simon wants to like dig in on you know who's
10:47
Speaker 1: going to cover in Game one, but just give a
10:49
Speaker 1: little context because there is a great sort of sub
10:53
Speaker 1: story here around how these teams were built with relations
10:56
Speaker 1: to Paul George.
10:57
Speaker 2: Yeah.
10:57
Speaker 4: One of the things I think is great is that
10:59
Speaker 4: this wasn't you know.
11:00
Speaker 3: I have a lot of respect for pg did a
11:02
Speaker 3: big feature on him a couple of years ago for
11:03
Speaker 3: MVP for Action. He was kind of sit down with me,
11:06
Speaker 3: but they didn't move on from PGS and like they
11:09
Speaker 3: pulled the rug out from under him. This wasn't like
11:12
Speaker 3: bringing Blake Griffin in and talking about him as a
11:14
Speaker 3: legend and then shipping him out six months later. Paul
11:16
Speaker 3: George was like, Hey, I want to go home, Like
11:18
Speaker 3: I want to go back to la That's where I
11:19
Speaker 3: want to be, and I'm teaming up with Kawhi and Sam.
11:22
Speaker 3: Presty was like, we can make that happen, no problem,
11:24
Speaker 3: and came to the Clippers with the terms of the
11:26
Speaker 3: deal and they found it appropriate. Got shay Yos Alexander
11:29
Speaker 3: and this great story from Presty where he talks about
11:32
Speaker 3: how like he was still trying to deal with the
11:34
Speaker 3: aftermath of moving Russ and like how dramatic it was
11:36
Speaker 3: that offseason, Like that was really hard for him. Like
11:38
Speaker 3: Russ was a big part of that organization internally. They
11:41
Speaker 3: loved that guy. They still love that guy, and yet
11:44
Speaker 3: he goes in and while he's doing all these calls
11:46
Speaker 3: and trying to manage all that, Shay is already at
11:48
Speaker 3: the facility already working out, Like he's already come in
11:51
Speaker 3: and he's already getting a workout in, and he was
11:53
Speaker 3: like he just remembered that as a really big moment.
11:55
Speaker 3: And for Shay to have been the center piece of
11:58
Speaker 3: that deal and for how that worked out, an absolutely
12:01
Speaker 3: incredible story and it's a testament to how OKAC did
12:05
Speaker 3: handle that transition. You know, they made the playoffs in
12:08
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. This team didn't tank for half a decade.
12:11
Speaker 3: They tanked for two years, missed the playoffs and the
12:12
Speaker 3: third and then we're back in because they took the
12:15
Speaker 3: time to really invest in player development and make sure
12:19
Speaker 3: that they weren't just tanking to get star talent. They
12:21
Speaker 3: were building what they had. They got lucky with some
12:23
Speaker 3: of the some of the selections, but they were very
12:27
Speaker 3: deliberate with how they built that team up. And for Indiana,
12:30
Speaker 3: you know, Demonas Sabonis was considered a great player, like
12:33
Speaker 3: he had taken into the playoffs, he was a really
12:35
Speaker 3: big part of their team, and they risked it in
12:37
Speaker 3: sending Sabonis for Tyres Halliburton because they recognized what Halliburton
12:42
Speaker 3: could do. And then the trader I love is Siakam
12:44
Speaker 3: One when's the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. The Kings were
12:49
Speaker 3: so hot to trot for Siakam, Like every source I
12:52
Speaker 3: talked to was like, Oh, yeah, he's gonna wind up
12:53
Speaker 3: a King that they're not going to let him go.
12:54
Speaker 3: There's no team that's going to come in over the top.
12:56
Speaker 3: And the Pacers snuck in when there was a breakdown
12:59
Speaker 3: in talks with the Kings and grab Sakam and that
13:03
Speaker 3: foundationally transform their team. And last season when they made
13:06
Speaker 3: up that run to the Eastern Conference Finals, they'd only
13:08
Speaker 3: played with Siakam for two months. Hallie had been out
13:12
Speaker 3: the entire first month that he was there, so they
13:15
Speaker 3: had really no time to get together. And there was
13:16
Speaker 3: these videos in the off season of Siakam brought in
13:20
Speaker 3: guys to his his gym to do offseason workouts and
13:24
Speaker 3: was in the young guys faces being like, you think
13:27
Speaker 3: we've done something, We haven't done anything.
13:29
Speaker 4: I've been there and didn't go back.
13:31
Speaker 3: You cannot go in with that mentality, Like it got
13:34
Speaker 3: me Brady to run through a wall for him.
13:36
Speaker 4: And you see the intensity of this team plays with.
13:39
Speaker 3: It's rough for PG to look like this, but I
13:42
Speaker 3: got to say, like the moves have worked out absolutely
13:44
Speaker 3: terrific with both teams and how they built these squads.
13:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, like PG, the picks they got the Pacers got
13:52
Speaker 1: when they traded Paul George. You see that all over
13:55
Speaker 1: the court right today for that for both both of
13:58
Speaker 1: these teams were literally built by trading Paul George. H Simon,
14:05
Speaker 1: I appreciate your patience, but I just wanted to make
14:07
Speaker 1: it clear this is the Paul George Finals.
14:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the okay see thing has been crazy of
14:12
Speaker 2: just how dams they've been. But if you watch the
14:13
Speaker 2: playoffs like most fans have, Denver was the real test,
14:16
Speaker 2: right they they weren't a shoeing to beat that team
14:19
Speaker 2: like Denver easily could have won that series. And the reason,
14:22
Speaker 2: you know, people I listened to that Saty loss is
14:24
Speaker 2: because the rotation, right, okay see, was deeper they had
14:27
Speaker 2: the guys, is there a single thing you look at
14:30
Speaker 2: this Pacers team they can attack this okay thing, okay
14:33
Speaker 2: see team that gives them an advantage Like what are
14:35
Speaker 2: you trying to grasp at with this Pacers team? Because
14:38
Speaker 2: everyone I talk to you, that's no's basketball. It's just
14:40
Speaker 2: like you kind of need a miracle like the one
14:42
Speaker 2: you had with the Knicks against the Boston team, Like,
14:45
Speaker 2: is that the same kind of scenario here?
14:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not great, not great, Simon. It's not a
14:49
Speaker 3: great look for them in their situation. The model for me,
14:53
Speaker 3: like there's other ways that they could do this if
14:54
Speaker 3: they still game two, but for me, it comes down
14:56
Speaker 3: to Game one. Is that if you like Pacers, I
14:58
Speaker 3: think you should be on Pacers Game one, Pacers series, right,
15:01
Speaker 3: and you're gonna get.
15:02
Speaker 4: A big number on that.
15:03
Speaker 3: They gotta steal game one because they gotta follow the
15:04
Speaker 3: script of Denver. This is where I have a hard
15:07
Speaker 3: time trying to get the value on the number, because
15:09
Speaker 3: I think the market is ahead of where I've got,
15:11
Speaker 3: Like it is definitively ahead of where I've got this
15:14
Speaker 3: this power rated. That was a big reason I was
15:16
Speaker 3: all in on Indiana in the last round is I
15:18
Speaker 3: was I'm higher on Indiana on power rating and was
15:20
Speaker 3: lower on New York And the market is just like
15:22
Speaker 3: way ahead here on OKC, Like I make this minus
15:25
Speaker 3: five to fourteen, it's minus seven hundred in the market
15:28
Speaker 3: Oh so you want Indiana didn't say that. That's not
15:31
Speaker 3: something that makes me feel good. If they can steal
15:34
Speaker 3: game one, you have to factor in. In any thunder series,
15:37
Speaker 3: you're gonna get blown out twice. In OKAC, it's just
15:41
Speaker 3: like you gotta bake that in. Like I literally had
15:43
Speaker 3: to run a deviation on model just to be like,
15:44
Speaker 3: I need you to give me two blowouts and OKC,
15:47
Speaker 3: and just like, what does that look like from a
15:48
Speaker 3: number perspective, whether it's game two, game seven, game five,
15:52
Speaker 3: Game seven, game five, game two, whatever, you're gonna lose
15:54
Speaker 3: two by twenty or more. In OKC, they just do
15:57
Speaker 3: that to you. But if they could steal game one,
16:00
Speaker 3: all right, now you're in the same Denver script. They
16:01
Speaker 3: come back and they wax you in game two, no problem.
16:04
Speaker 3: You come home up to up split one one. That
16:08
Speaker 3: game three spot at the field House, no finals since
16:12
Speaker 3: two thousand building is gonna be raucous. OKC does underperform,
16:17
Speaker 3: especially against the spread on the road. They have not
16:20
Speaker 3: been great this postseason. That's been the big thing is
16:22
Speaker 3: home versus away. Steal game three, you're up to one.
16:25
Speaker 3: Everyone's doing the same thing from the Denver series, which
16:28
Speaker 3: is like, oh my god, is this gonna happen? Are
16:30
Speaker 3: they prepared? They're gonna come back and kill you in
16:32
Speaker 3: game four. They're going to kill you in game five.
16:34
Speaker 3: That gives you Game six at home to four to seven.
16:37
Speaker 3: And you've got more guys than Denver, so you're not
16:39
Speaker 3: going to be this wreck of a mass unit with
16:42
Speaker 3: Aaron Gordon on one hamstring and MPG with one shoulder.
16:45
Speaker 3: You've been the hottest shooting team in the playoffs. Pacers
16:47
Speaker 3: have the best effective field goal percentage of any team
16:50
Speaker 3: in the postseason. That makes you live. I am literally saying,
16:53
Speaker 3: you gotta get to a Game seven just to have
16:54
Speaker 3: a chance here any other outcome, and I think it's
16:56
Speaker 3: thunder definitively. They got a steal Game one, all right.
17:00
Speaker 1: So go ahead, some what are you gonna say something?
17:02
Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna hit him with the trend. They
17:03
Speaker 2: haven't trend. I mean we have to talk about it.
17:06
Speaker 2: So obviously NBA Finals Game one underdogs horrible, horrible bet chat,
17:11
Speaker 2: which was just shocking to me because it always feels
17:13
Speaker 2: like that's the game, like we're talking about here, you
17:15
Speaker 2: need to steal, right if you're the underdog over the
17:18
Speaker 2: last twenty years Game one underdogs two and eighteen straight up,
17:21
Speaker 2: three and seventeen against the spread. And you know, when
17:24
Speaker 2: you really break it down about bigger dogs, Chad, it
17:27
Speaker 2: gets even worse. So if it's five points or more,
17:30
Speaker 2: they're zero to twelve straight up, one and eleven against
17:32
Speaker 2: the spread since two thousand and four. So the last
17:36
Speaker 2: time it happened, the Pistons were at eight point dog
17:39
Speaker 2: and they went outright. So they were saying that when
17:42
Speaker 2: the dogs this big and game one, you can just
17:45
Speaker 2: take the money line if you're really that ambitious kind
17:47
Speaker 2: of hear what Matt's talking about. It's like, don't mess
17:50
Speaker 2: with the spread, like they don't have a chance apparently
17:52
Speaker 2: in this game one. So just reading those trends makes
17:56
Speaker 2: me a little scared where it's it's already stacked against them.
17:59
Speaker 2: That that's the reason the books they have this exact
18:01
Speaker 2: same data. Don't be shocked that this opened at plus
18:05
Speaker 2: seven and a half plus eight and got bet up
18:07
Speaker 2: to plus nine because the pros everyone obviously took a
18:10
Speaker 2: position very quickly because of this exact trend. So that's
18:13
Speaker 2: all I just want to throw in their Chad.
18:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Matt, what's your take on that.
18:17
Speaker 4: Yeah, here's so, here's another one. Here's another one.
18:19
Speaker 3: The pro so, if we look at the history, only
18:21
Speaker 3: two teams beyond a three seed have ever won the
18:25
Speaker 3: NBA title. They're trying to become the third team. It's
18:28
Speaker 3: ninety five Rockets, nineteen sixty nine Celtics.
18:31
Speaker 2: That's it.
18:32
Speaker 3: So you're they're going up against history here, teams when
18:35
Speaker 3: you've got a more than three seed differential in game one,
18:39
Speaker 3: are they're three?
18:41
Speaker 4: And oh?
18:41
Speaker 3: These one seeds, the one seeds have it like Okase
18:44
Speaker 3: checks every box. They won forty games before losing twenty
18:47
Speaker 3: ninety five percent of all winners over the last twenty
18:50
Speaker 3: years have done that.
18:51
Speaker 4: All of these markers.
18:52
Speaker 3: Are in favor of OKAC for the series wins. So
18:54
Speaker 3: this really would have to be an outlier year. Now,
18:56
Speaker 3: this is an outlier year in general because look at
18:59
Speaker 3: all the all the big heavy teams that have gone down,
19:02
Speaker 3: and we've seen a lot of trends busted in these playoffs.
19:04
Speaker 3: Teams coming off of Game sevens were such a rock
19:07
Speaker 3: solid play to fade and they did great in the
19:09
Speaker 3: second round that killed us on buckets.
19:11
Speaker 4: So there's been trend differentials this year.
19:13
Speaker 3: It's a different era at the same time, like if
19:16
Speaker 3: you look at those performances of teams in game one,
19:19
Speaker 3: you look at teams in game one also that are
19:22
Speaker 3: elite defenses. If they allow fewer than one hundred and
19:25
Speaker 3: ten points in that first game of the finals, they're
19:29
Speaker 3: twenty nine to ten in those spots. It's tough for
19:33
Speaker 3: to find the kind of reasoning here, which is a
19:35
Speaker 3: big reason why on series plays, even though I get
19:38
Speaker 3: I don't like the market, I feel like I'm just
19:41
Speaker 3: gonna have to bet OKC on series spread lines based
19:45
Speaker 3: off of the basketball handicap, the script differential and all
19:49
Speaker 3: these things. There's basketball stuff I can find that makes
19:51
Speaker 3: me like Indy, like I can find, especially on the
19:53
Speaker 3: defensive side for Indy, there's a lot of things I
19:55
Speaker 3: actually can find that I like there.
19:57
Speaker 4: It's just like, does that get them within rain? Yeah?
20:01
Speaker 4: Does that get them the win? Probably not?
20:03
Speaker 1: What do you like defensively or on the court. In
20:08
Speaker 1: your breakdown about the Pacers.
20:12
Speaker 3: So in the regular season matchups, right, they got waxed
20:15
Speaker 3: by Okasee lost by twenty both times, no surprise. Okasee
20:18
Speaker 3: has won sixty eight games this season by double digits,
20:22
Speaker 3: which is insane. But what they did was they had
20:26
Speaker 3: Andrew Nemhar guard Shakeyos Alexander on pick and roll and
20:30
Speaker 3: they didn't deviate from that. Aaron NEI Smith, you remember
20:32
Speaker 3: how good he was on Jalen Brunson to the first
20:34
Speaker 3: half of the series. Six total possessions guarding shake Ghost Alexander.
20:38
Speaker 3: Now that wasn't them hiding it for the finals. Nie
20:41
Speaker 3: Smith was out for one and they just you play
20:44
Speaker 3: your base coverage in the regular season. But putting Nie
20:46
Speaker 3: Smith on Shay that's a move I really like because
20:48
Speaker 3: what you want to be able to do is you
20:51
Speaker 3: want to put him in a crowd that the Wolves
20:52
Speaker 3: did in Game three and then make him make tough
20:56
Speaker 3: shots in a really tight crowd or shoot pull up threes.
21:00
Speaker 4: The Pacers weak side.
21:01
Speaker 3: Defense is actually a little bit sharper than Minnesota's with
21:04
Speaker 3: the personnel that they were playing, and Minnesota is a
21:07
Speaker 3: lot or Indiana is a lot more comfortable playing small
21:11
Speaker 3: than Minnesota is. Minnesota got so far away from game script.
21:14
Speaker 3: Chris Finch, I think is an excellent coach. He got
21:16
Speaker 3: worked in that series, and I think he got in
21:18
Speaker 3: his own head a little bit. Indiana is a lot
21:20
Speaker 3: more comfortable with throwing out different coverages, particularly zone. If
21:23
Speaker 3: you remember, zone was one of the things that the
21:26
Speaker 3: Nuggets threw in that really screwed with Okac's offense throughout
21:30
Speaker 3: the middle part of that series. You're gonna see a
21:32
Speaker 3: lot of that in this series as well. And if
21:35
Speaker 3: this becomes not about turnovers and not about athleticism, but
21:39
Speaker 3: it becomes about shooting, that's where Okac starts to waiver
21:43
Speaker 3: a little bit. Their road splits are horrific for their
21:46
Speaker 3: role players, lou Dort, Caruso, Case and Wallace, all these guys,
21:51
Speaker 3: even Jaylen Williams, struggle a lot hitting open threes on
21:54
Speaker 3: the road. And Indy is, like I said, they're shooting
21:58
Speaker 3: the lights out. They've been shooting the lights out since
22:00
Speaker 3: the start of the playoffs. So this turns into if
22:03
Speaker 3: they don't turn the ball over, and Tyrese Haliburton is
22:05
Speaker 3: one of the lowest turnover point guards.
22:07
Speaker 4: Indy is the second best.
22:09
Speaker 3: Team at preventing turnovers from the regular season, and they've
22:12
Speaker 3: been great in the postseason. You don't give Okac easy
22:15
Speaker 3: chances off turnovers. The offensive rebound battle actually leans towards
22:20
Speaker 3: Indiana in this matchup versus okc, if they can not
22:24
Speaker 3: turn the ball over, make this into a shooting contest.
22:27
Speaker 3: I like that stuff for Indiana, but it's like, Okay,
22:30
Speaker 3: what does that get you? The problem is I can
22:32
Speaker 3: make a basketball cap to shorten the margin. I can't
22:35
Speaker 3: get the margin to zero or plus one for Indiana
22:38
Speaker 3: in these matchups because the gap between them and team
22:40
Speaker 3: strength is two wide.
22:41
Speaker 1: There was a great story in the Wall Street Journal
22:44
Speaker 1: last week about how long the ball is in Tyrese
22:50
Speaker 1: Haliburton's hands on a possession, and that on average, it
22:55
Speaker 1: was in his hands for about three and a half
22:58
Speaker 1: seconds per possession. By comparison, Jalen Brunson was the highest
23:05
Speaker 1: percentage or highest amount of seconds, at close to seven
23:08
Speaker 1: seconds per possession. I just thought that was an amazing
23:13
Speaker 1: stack because it speaks to the pace of the Pacers
23:15
Speaker 1: offense and how quickly they are looking to get the
23:17
Speaker 1: ball up court. Like you can see it, like every
23:21
Speaker 1: single possession ies down the court, eyes down the court,
23:26
Speaker 1: linked to the court, passes over the top of the defense,
23:30
Speaker 1: coming out of baskets. I mean, why was that so
23:34
Speaker 1: effective for the Knicks against the Knicks and why will
23:38
Speaker 1: it be so ineffective against the thunder. What will they
23:42
Speaker 1: do differently?
23:43
Speaker 3: It was a problem for every team that they've faced.
23:45
Speaker 3: And this is actually something that I've talked to coaches
23:48
Speaker 3: about in the league. So there's a difference between tempo
23:50
Speaker 3: and pace. And the idea of the Pacers is like, well,
23:52
Speaker 3: they're just running, run and run and running, trying to
23:54
Speaker 3: get fast break points. They'll do those outlet passes for
23:57
Speaker 3: the quick dunks like you saw with Seakham. They'll take
23:59
Speaker 3: that when it's there. But they actually have the second
24:03
Speaker 3: most shots this season playoffs, in regular season combined with
24:08
Speaker 3: four to seven seconds left on the clock. That's considered
24:10
Speaker 3: late by NBA terms, And so you try and figure out, like,
24:14
Speaker 3: what does that mean. It's if you watch they play
24:18
Speaker 3: with tempo more than they play with pace. This is
24:20
Speaker 3: an old Spurs thing that Tony Parker used to do.
24:23
Speaker 3: You make a basket crowd celebrating boom, he's up the
24:26
Speaker 3: court and he's initiating first action at twenty seconds, eighteen seconds,
24:30
Speaker 3: first screen, first pass is already executing, so they're moving well.
24:34
Speaker 3: The other team is still doing three point celebrations and
24:38
Speaker 3: they'll they will continue to get into those and attack them.
24:41
Speaker 4: And when Indy has their worst games.
24:43
Speaker 3: They get away from that Game five versus the Knicks,
24:45
Speaker 3: you could see it like they were just slowed down.
24:47
Speaker 3: They were executing offense at twelve seconds fourteen seconds. When
24:50
Speaker 3: they are playing up tempo. It gets them a little
24:52
Speaker 3: bit further off. Now, what the Knicks did in game
24:55
Speaker 3: five two is they picked up Haliburton across half court.
24:57
Speaker 3: They picked him up at fifty feet from the basket,
25:00
Speaker 3: so they started picking him up what way past half.
25:03
Speaker 4: Court to put pressure on him.
25:05
Speaker 3: In game six, he solved that with some screens in
25:08
Speaker 3: the back court, played a little bit faster in terms
25:11
Speaker 3: of getting ahead of it and breaking that press and
25:13
Speaker 3: then also having somebody else. One of the great things
25:15
Speaker 3: about Haliburton is he'll defer. One of the things I
25:17
Speaker 3: love about him is he'll if you switch, if you
25:20
Speaker 3: put your big on him, if they really they're playing
25:22
Speaker 3: one big and it's Chet Holmgren, he'll take Chet and
25:25
Speaker 3: he'll he'll get the switch, and then he'll pass off
25:29
Speaker 3: and he'll hang. Because Holmgren has to respect his three
25:33
Speaker 3: point shot, which means there's no longer a shot blocker underneath.
25:36
Speaker 3: And the question is gonna be cannemhard Cannie Smith, can McConnell,
25:41
Speaker 3: Can Siakam attack the basket against that pressure and break it.
25:44
Speaker 3: That's a big question, but those are gonna be the
25:47
Speaker 3: kind of challenges that you're gonna see in this series.
25:49
Speaker 3: And if Haliburton is able to navigate this and is
25:52
Speaker 3: able to break that defense. A big question for me
25:54
Speaker 3: is going to be if the thunder coming into the
25:57
Speaker 3: series and they're like, you're not gonna be able to pass. Man,
25:59
Speaker 3: We're gonna we're gonna we're staying home on everybody. We're
26:02
Speaker 3: switching everything. We're gonna give you these switches, but we're
26:05
Speaker 3: also gonna shut down all your your other options. We're
26:07
Speaker 3: not shading off. We're okay with all our guys can defend.
26:11
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to score.
26:13
Speaker 4: Can Holly do that? Because that's not in his mindset.
26:15
Speaker 3: He's got that Steve Nash about him where he always
26:18
Speaker 3: wants to make the right play.
26:19
Speaker 4: If he has like a.
26:20
Speaker 3: Monster scoring performance several times, that breaks that defense, forces
26:24
Speaker 3: more help and out Okase's in rotation.
26:26
Speaker 4: And they hate it.
26:28
Speaker 3: But he's gonna have to beat play, I think with
26:29
Speaker 3: a little bit more deliberation, and he's gonna have to
26:32
Speaker 3: play with a little bit more of a I have
26:34
Speaker 3: to score here to bend this defense, because if you
26:37
Speaker 3: just take what the defense gives you, Okac gives you
26:41
Speaker 3: things that seem like, oh this is a good It
26:43
Speaker 3: was not a good shot, it was blocked, it was
26:44
Speaker 3: a turnover, et cetera. You have to force them out
26:47
Speaker 3: of their comfort zone if you're gonna break that defense.
26:50
Speaker 2: And you did mention earlier series how you're betnett if
26:53
Speaker 2: people don't know the series price. Obviously we're talking with Thunder,
26:57
Speaker 2: huge favorite minus seven hundred, Pacers plus five hundred. Can
27:00
Speaker 2: you talk a little bout how you're attacking the series price?
27:02
Speaker 2: And obviously you're not gonna betting minus seven hundred. Are
27:05
Speaker 2: you just going to betting by the games or which
27:07
Speaker 2: way you breaking down that number? Yeah?
27:09
Speaker 3: I like the series spread. I'm taking Thunder minus two
27:12
Speaker 3: and a half games. There's a minus one ten out there.
27:14
Speaker 3: That's a really good number to me based off of
27:17
Speaker 3: when I get to Okay, if we price in those
27:20
Speaker 3: two blowouts I'm expecting for OKAC at home, the odds
27:23
Speaker 3: are that we're gonna be able to get that in
27:24
Speaker 3: two in five, or at least have a high enough
27:26
Speaker 3: margin here, it's I don't there's no real value on
27:30
Speaker 3: Thunder Game one Thunder series right, that's minus three hundred.
27:33
Speaker 3: That's a tough price I think to get into. With
27:36
Speaker 3: the Thunder being on the stage for the first time,
27:38
Speaker 3: both these teams are inexperienced at this point. I do
27:41
Speaker 3: think there's a coaching edge for Rick Carlisle, But to me,
27:44
Speaker 3: like Thunder minus two and a half, they either sweep
27:46
Speaker 3: or finish it in five. It could be I think
27:48
Speaker 3: we could have some really great games in it. You know,
27:50
Speaker 3: we could have an awesome Game one, an awesome Game three,
27:53
Speaker 3: maybe a good game four, and still wind up with
27:56
Speaker 3: Thunder in winning in five or four.
27:58
Speaker 4: Here.
28:00
Speaker 3: I've loved this Pacers team. They've been one of the
28:02
Speaker 3: most fun teams to watch. But this, this Thunder team
28:05
Speaker 3: is just in another weight class, and if I'm going
28:07
Speaker 3: to bet it appropriately, I think the value has to
28:09
Speaker 3: be found when you're taking heavy outcomes. That lean in
28:13
Speaker 3: Okase's favor.
28:15
Speaker 1: Is the what about Thunder and five. If you're going
28:18
Speaker 1: to bet minus two and a half, why not Thunder
28:20
Speaker 1: in five as well?
28:21
Speaker 3: Because I think that there's an opportunity there for If
28:24
Speaker 3: the problem is okac has the same kind of comeback
28:27
Speaker 3: ability that the Pacers do.
28:28
Speaker 4: Right, We've seen them come back heavy.
28:30
Speaker 3: But if you remember the Thunder, we're down thirty to
28:32
Speaker 3: Memphis came back and won that game. Now, the Pacers
28:34
Speaker 3: are a lot better than Memphis, for sure, But I
28:37
Speaker 3: do think that there's a possibility that this is actually
28:39
Speaker 3: the Pacers come out with a great first half in
28:41
Speaker 3: Game three.
28:42
Speaker 4: Thunder a second half team.
28:43
Speaker 3: They've been that all year where it's like you look
28:45
Speaker 3: up and all of a sudden, your double digit lead
28:47
Speaker 3: is gone.
28:47
Speaker 4: In the third quarter.
28:48
Speaker 3: They pish it, but they push in the middle of
28:50
Speaker 3: the fourth and then they finish you out. So I
28:52
Speaker 3: want that opportunity for Thunder and four. I don't want
28:55
Speaker 3: to close off my opportunity in case the Thunder do
28:58
Speaker 3: take Game.
28:59
Speaker 4: Three as well.
29:00
Speaker 1: You know what's go ahead, Sammon?
29:03
Speaker 2: No, I mean, I'm just gonna once again add to
29:05
Speaker 2: it the upsets, Like we're just talking about really big
29:08
Speaker 2: numbers here, you know, last big serious price you get
29:13
Speaker 2: like this with an upset not that long ago, which
29:15
Speaker 2: shocked me because it was like, oh, I wasn't even
29:17
Speaker 2: thinking about that Heat Celtics series. So twenty twenty three
29:21
Speaker 2: Heat over the Celtics, two thousand and nine Magic over
29:24
Speaker 2: the Cavs, and two thousand and four Piston over that
29:26
Speaker 2: Lakers team. So what we're talking about here obviously is
29:30
Speaker 2: incredibly rare. That's why this number once again has been
29:34
Speaker 2: met up by the professionals, because guys, if they're putting
29:36
Speaker 2: down five to six figures, they don't mind eating minus
29:40
Speaker 2: seven hundred, minus six fifty minus eight hundred some books
29:43
Speaker 2: have already moved to. So I just want people to
29:46
Speaker 2: be aware of those prices, and like, if you we
29:48
Speaker 2: all believe, right, there's like part of us all wants
29:50
Speaker 2: to believe in this Pacers team because it is basketball, right,
29:53
Speaker 2: It's all about balls having to go in the hoop.
29:55
Speaker 2: Some teams, that doesn't happen for me. And when we
29:58
Speaker 2: saw it with that Boston series, it was a totally
30:00
Speaker 2: different series because Boston just couldn't hit their threes. And
30:02
Speaker 2: that's the way the NBA has been now. So you know,
30:05
Speaker 2: as someone that's like very tempted to bet the Pacers,
30:08
Speaker 2: Evan has just been killing me with all these trends.
30:11
Speaker 2: So I just want people to be aware of the trends.
30:13
Speaker 2: They don't really favorite betting these type of dogs, and
30:15
Speaker 2: I think Matt agrees with that.
30:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I got two more trends here that we
30:19
Speaker 3: kind of go along with that. The other thing that's
30:21
Speaker 3: correlated with these dog favorite spots is the under the
30:26
Speaker 3: under in home Favorite game ones fourteen and eight last
30:32
Speaker 3: twenty two. If we go to teams that have allowed
30:35
Speaker 3: fewer than one hundred and ten points per game, I
30:37
Speaker 3: wish we had a defensive rating, but we don't. But
30:39
Speaker 3: teams that are in that kind of spot in game
30:41
Speaker 3: one of the Finals twenty five and fourteen to the under.
30:46
Speaker 3: In these spots, there's been like a lot of opportunities here,
30:48
Speaker 3: I think for the under opportunities to be in play
30:51
Speaker 3: for this game one. This total ticked up after the open.
30:55
Speaker 3: We talked about it on Buckets Live that there was
30:56
Speaker 3: immediate action kind of pushing the over.
30:58
Speaker 4: I'm going to be back in.
30:59
Speaker 3: I think on the under here, the problem is always
31:02
Speaker 3: OKAC causing turnovers and those running up easy transition points.
31:05
Speaker 3: But again, this is a low turnover team. So even
31:08
Speaker 3: if they turn it over more than they can and
31:10
Speaker 3: survive winning the game or covering, there's still an opportunity
31:13
Speaker 3: here for them to not give Okasey's offense.
31:16
Speaker 4: Enough life for the under, I'm.
31:17
Speaker 3: Gonna be looking I think, by the way, on the
31:19
Speaker 3: other side of this, let's script it. If you like thunder,
31:22
Speaker 3: it's thunder, it's thunderspread and under. If you like Pacers,
31:27
Speaker 3: it's Pacers, money line and over. That's got to be
31:29
Speaker 3: the way that you play this. From that perspective, Indiana
31:33
Speaker 3: can win some of these games with unders, but it's
31:35
Speaker 3: gonna be real tough against this particular.
31:37
Speaker 4: Team Matt.
31:42
Speaker 1: You Simon mentioned Boston. We haven't brought up the Lakers.
31:47
Speaker 1: If you had to predict who's going to win a
31:52
Speaker 1: title first in the next five years, Lakers or Mavericks.
32:04
Speaker 3: I mean, it's one hundred percent the Lakers. We talked
32:08
Speaker 3: about this late in the season on Buckets. We talked
32:11
Speaker 3: about what the price would have to be for you
32:14
Speaker 3: to bet the Lakers to win the twenty twenty sixth title.
32:17
Speaker 3: And you know, I was given out numbers and Brandon
32:22
Speaker 3: Anderson and Sean Little were killing me. There's like no way, man, No.
32:25
Speaker 3: I was like, all right, what's the number that you want?
32:26
Speaker 3: And they're like, it's got to be twenty to one. Yeah,
32:29
Speaker 3: that's twenty to one.
32:29
Speaker 4: In the market.
32:30
Speaker 3: They're gonna have an entire offseason to rebuild around Luca.
32:34
Speaker 3: There's already I've been talking to people around the league.
32:36
Speaker 3: Nick Claxton's a name to look out for. There's a
32:38
Speaker 3: lot of thought that they're gonna make a move for
32:40
Speaker 3: Nick Claxton as a rim runner big. They're gonna add wings,
32:43
Speaker 3: They're gonna add other opportunities.
32:44
Speaker 4: They still have assets to trade.
32:46
Speaker 3: Austin Reeves is probably gonna get moved, and that's a
32:49
Speaker 3: big trade piece for them. The Lakers are in a
32:50
Speaker 3: great spot. Mavericks are without Kyrie Irving. I don't know
32:54
Speaker 3: what this looks like after them. Love Cooper flag, but
32:56
Speaker 3: this is a terrible situation that he's going in. But
32:58
Speaker 3: if you gave me the option of those or the
33:00
Speaker 3: San Antonio Spurs, Jed, I would take the San Antonio Spurs.
33:04
Speaker 1: Really.
33:06
Speaker 3: Victor Man, Victor Weman Yama, even coming off the blood
33:11
Speaker 3: clot Man, his game is so far behind his impact
33:17
Speaker 3: where he's not even that good at so many simple
33:20
Speaker 3: basic things. He still gets knocked out of the way
33:23
Speaker 3: on drives, he still gets out of position, He's still
33:25
Speaker 3: you know, confused. He doesn't have go to moves his
33:28
Speaker 3: footwork isn't perfect, and then you look at the overall
33:30
Speaker 3: numbers and it's like they are monsters with him on
33:33
Speaker 3: the court. He's just gonna get better. They added the
33:36
Speaker 3: Air and Fox. They've got the number two pick, and
33:38
Speaker 3: there's a lot of conversations about what they're gonna do
33:42
Speaker 3: as far as whether they keep that pick and take
33:43
Speaker 3: Dylan Harper or trade it for a major upgrade. Everyone's
33:47
Speaker 3: waiting to hear about Giannis, but it might be for
33:49
Speaker 3: something else as well. They've got cap space, flexibility, they've
33:53
Speaker 3: got draft picks. That Spurs team is set up. We
33:56
Speaker 3: are probably gonna get another Lakers Spurs rivalry like we
34:00
Speaker 3: did in the early two thousands. I think we're going
34:02
Speaker 3: to see that again here with Luca versus Victor Webbin
34:05
Speaker 3: Yama over and over again.
34:06
Speaker 4: In the West.
34:07
Speaker 2: Let me speak in you mentioned the draft. I need
34:09
Speaker 2: to sneak in pick three. It's the only pick on
34:12
Speaker 2: the board with any value my sixers. Is it as Bailey?
34:16
Speaker 2: Who the hell are they taking? Is there a long
34:17
Speaker 2: shot outside guy you put money on? Or am I
34:19
Speaker 2: just betting plus one hundred you know, minus one ten
34:22
Speaker 2: on this? Ace Bailey kid? A put pick.
34:24
Speaker 3: Three, So I think that it's probably if you were
34:27
Speaker 3: If you had to better, I would wait because I
34:28
Speaker 3: don't think we have enough intel right now.
34:30
Speaker 4: But you had to, I would bet Bailey.
34:32
Speaker 3: But if I actually had to, I would bet if
34:34
Speaker 3: I could, if it was in the market, I would
34:35
Speaker 3: bet Bailey, not Sixers at three. There's a couple of
34:40
Speaker 3: teams that are absolutely in on Bailey and are looking
34:42
Speaker 3: to move up, and the Sixers are interested in those conversations.
34:45
Speaker 3: So there's an opportunity there if the Sixers keep the pick.
34:48
Speaker 4: I think VJ. Edgecomb probably goes there. That's how I
34:50
Speaker 4: have to go there talking.
34:51
Speaker 2: To me Letcher, are we really about to trade Maxing
34:53
Speaker 2: that third pick for you? Honest? Is that real? Is
34:56
Speaker 2: that just? Is that just off season talk?
34:58
Speaker 4: That's off season talk. Everyone's waiting. There was a meeting,
35:01
Speaker 4: so there was two meetings.
35:02
Speaker 2: There was a meeting with.
35:02
Speaker 3: Giannis a couple of weeks ago, and no word came
35:05
Speaker 3: out of that. That was with the front office. There
35:07
Speaker 3: was an ownership meeting with the front office last week
35:11
Speaker 3: and there's been like weird noise coming out of that one.
35:14
Speaker 3: But so far everybody in Milwaukee is making noise about
35:18
Speaker 3: Giannis is staying we're going to do a gap year.
35:20
Speaker 3: It's going to be okay. That can change it in
35:22
Speaker 3: any second if he asks out it's bidding season. But
35:25
Speaker 3: I also think that they are less likely. I do
35:28
Speaker 3: not think that, I will say this, I do not
35:30
Speaker 3: think the Sixers are trading Tyres Maxie. I do not
35:32
Speaker 3: find any situation where they trade Tyres Maxie. They are
35:35
Speaker 3: more likely to trade every other asset.
35:37
Speaker 4: I would say that they might.
35:38
Speaker 3: Even be more likely to trade Joelle than they are
35:40
Speaker 3: to trade Tyrese. So I would not worry about trading
35:43
Speaker 3: Tyres in the third I would not be surprised if
35:45
Speaker 3: they did a deal for Jannis.
35:46
Speaker 4: That's a very Daryl Morey thing to do.
35:48
Speaker 3: But they'll have a lot of competition, and we're a
35:50
Speaker 3: long way from there because we got to figure out
35:52
Speaker 3: what Yannis wants first, and as of right now, there's
35:55
Speaker 3: still no news and nobody knows.
35:58
Speaker 1: The Bay spot is so interesting because people are so
36:05
Speaker 1: divided on Ace Bailey. Are you getting a guy who's
36:09
Speaker 1: at a ceiling? Are you getting a guy who can
36:11
Speaker 1: live up to the potential? Like if I'm the Sixers,
36:17
Speaker 1: getting that three spot was a little bit of a
36:20
Speaker 1: curse because with the first two spots with Flag and Harper,
36:23
Speaker 1: you kind of know what you're getting. You're getting NBA
36:25
Speaker 1: ready guys. You know they can come and make an impact,
36:28
Speaker 1: and you know they've got superstar potential. Ace Bailey could
36:34
Speaker 1: just as easily be James Wiseman as he is the
36:38
Speaker 1: next great NBA All Star. Matt you agree? Is that
36:42
Speaker 1: a real conversation.
36:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, The problem is just like he's he won, he's
36:46
Speaker 3: There's two different thoughts of people I've talked to.
36:49
Speaker 4: One is, I don't like his approach. He's a gunner.
36:53
Speaker 3: He's gonna shoot too much. He needs years to refine this.
36:57
Speaker 3: He is not ready to play smart, competitive, high level
36:59
Speaker 3: back basketball because of his mindset, and like, I don't
37:03
Speaker 3: want to commit a lot of money to that kind
37:04
Speaker 3: of guy. That's just like scoring doesn't make teammates better.
37:08
Speaker 3: The other thought is like, look, he could be a
37:10
Speaker 3: really great player. He just needs seasoning, he just needs
37:12
Speaker 3: he's a prospect, but it's going to take several years.
37:14
Speaker 3: Like he's just really raw, and so that combo I
37:17
Speaker 3: think has got enough people skinned. But I think his
37:20
Speaker 3: interesting is Again, I've heard that there's a couple of
37:23
Speaker 3: teams that are in spots five through ten that are
37:27
Speaker 3: very much interested in Bailey and are like, no, that's
37:29
Speaker 3: the kind of talent that we need.
37:31
Speaker 4: But if the team's up at the top the other one.
37:33
Speaker 3: I thought Dylan Harper was like Locke, and he probably
37:36
Speaker 3: is going to I'm not saying he's not. I will
37:38
Speaker 3: say there's a lot of weirdness going on around, like
37:40
Speaker 3: no one really knows what san Antonio is gonna do,
37:43
Speaker 3: and there's a lot of scouts that are like, I'm
37:44
Speaker 3: not putting Harper one hundred percent at two.
37:46
Speaker 4: I'm just not.
37:47
Speaker 2: So that'll be three thousand just for the people at
37:50
Speaker 2: home to be number two.
37:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I again, most likely that's what's gonna happen.
37:56
Speaker 3: He is the consensus number two pick in this draft.
37:58
Speaker 4: I love Harper's game.
37:59
Speaker 3: I would take him too, But I do think that
38:01
Speaker 3: there's a lot of questions about fit culture, a lot
38:05
Speaker 3: of stuff.
38:06
Speaker 4: With Harper, and the Spurs are a.
38:08
Speaker 3: Tough fit for a lot of guys, which is why
38:10
Speaker 3: they go outside the box a lot of the time.
38:12
Speaker 3: And they've got a logjam there with Fox and Castle,
38:16
Speaker 3: who they do really like. He can out of a
38:18
Speaker 3: bad draft. Class one Rookie of the Year and a
38:20
Speaker 3: bad year, but they do like him, they're invested in him.
38:23
Speaker 3: So I'm very curious that there could be some chaos
38:25
Speaker 3: here at the top and that would be that would
38:27
Speaker 3: make for a lot of wild outcomes.
38:29
Speaker 4: I think in the draft markets.
38:30
Speaker 1: How does Edgecombe fit with the Sixers. Their backcourt, like
38:36
Speaker 1: from a starting perspective, was kind of loaded, and they've
38:38
Speaker 1: got similar players, like undersized athletic players.
38:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the idea is just one He's like, if
38:45
Speaker 3: he's the best talent, that's what you take.
38:46
Speaker 4: You always take a best talent with top three.
38:48
Speaker 3: If you like his talent better than Bailey, then you
38:51
Speaker 3: just you take the best talent. The other kind of
38:53
Speaker 3: mindset here is, look, if they move off Paul George,
38:55
Speaker 3: then they're gonna need wing help, and the idea is
38:57
Speaker 3: add as many wing guys, especially guys that can come
39:00
Speaker 3: in and do multiple things, and they like the versatility
39:02
Speaker 3: that Edgecomb is going to bring to the table. So
39:05
Speaker 3: that combo of things is kind of I think why
39:08
Speaker 3: Edgecomb is up there. Trey Johnson is the other name,
39:11
Speaker 3: but there's a lot of skepticism that that any team
39:13
Speaker 3: can really justify going for for Trey Johnson. What I
39:17
Speaker 3: will say though, is, as always, the mock drafts are
39:20
Speaker 3: not as important, the big boards are not as important.
39:23
Speaker 4: Picked by pick. They're good in.
39:25
Speaker 3: The aggregate, but if the sixers board is different, the
39:29
Speaker 3: sixers board is different. And so much of this comes
39:31
Speaker 3: down to It's why I am always most keen to
39:34
Speaker 3: hear about how do the interviews of the combine go?
39:36
Speaker 3: Because not the not the measurements, not the on court stuff,
39:40
Speaker 3: how the interviews go because building personal relationships, building trust
39:44
Speaker 3: and feeling like this is a kid that we can
39:46
Speaker 3: invest with the future and and this much emphasis on
39:50
Speaker 3: is really important. So that part, to me is just
39:52
Speaker 3: as important as all as all the other stuff as
39:56
Speaker 3: as far as the basketball skill set goes.
39:59
Speaker 1: Well, Matt Moore, we trust you, and we trust everything
40:04
Speaker 1: you've said about the NBA Finals, about the draft, about
40:08
Speaker 1: who might win a title first between the Lakers, Spurs,
40:12
Speaker 1: and Mavericks. Excellent work, brother. Everyone should listen to Buckets.
40:16
Speaker 1: It's been an amazing playoff run. We got more weeks
40:21
Speaker 1: ahead of us. Hopefully we'll get like I'd like six
40:25
Speaker 1: at least, just because I like both these teams and
40:27
Speaker 1: I'm going to miss the NBA when it's gone. But
40:30
Speaker 1: Matt Moore, great work, great thanks for coming on, Thanks
40:35
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of
40:37
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