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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: A twenty nine coming up to a thirty fifty five
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  Speaker 1: kerc the Doxidation. It's Tuesday, which means it is time
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  Speaker 1: for the alliterative session we call the Daniel Davis Deep Dive,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: which is the name of Daniel Davis podcast, retired Lieutenant
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Colonel Daniel Davis offering his military analysis. Quite insightful. It
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: is every week and I thoroughly enjoy hearing from Welcome
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: back Daniel Davis, my friend. It's a pleasure to having
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: you on the show again.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: A lot to be here, Brian, thanks for having me again.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: All Right, today apparently is what I'll just sort of
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: you've message ref heard to is d Day. Apparently eight
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: pm is the all hell rained down. Tuesday will be
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: power plant Day, big and bridge Day, says Donald Trump.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Negotiations apparently haven't eyeled any fruit. But before we get
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to that, I just wanted to get your reaction in
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  Speaker 1: your comment on the quite daring rescue of the airmen
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: from the interior of Iran. That was a pretty impressive operation.
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  Speaker 1: Concerning the number of aircraft, the idea that the Iranian
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: army and forces were all looking for these pilots or
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: this pilot, I was rather impressed by it. I just
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  Speaker 1: wanted to get your reaction and also whether or not
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  Speaker 1: you think it says anything about Iran's ability to manage
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  Speaker 1: or deal with this warfare that were involved with, regardless
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  Speaker 1: which direction it goes.
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  Speaker 3: Daniel, Yeah, sure, they just in terms of an operation
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  Speaker 3: under life and death conditions and incredible chaos of war,
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  Speaker 3: it is the performance of the troops themselves was just
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  Speaker 3: magnificent and just.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, awe inspiring.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think that President Trump was exaggerated
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: too much on that part during his press conference yesterday
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  Speaker 3: where he was talking about it, because this appears to
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: have been and they didn't really want to talk this
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: part of it up. But based on the number and
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: type of assets that were involved, this was probably two
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: separate operations that coincided. Won the retrieval of the Weapons
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: support Officer of the WSO, and then another one that
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: was probably going to be a raid somewhere, which is
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  Speaker 3: why there was all those those two to see one
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  Speaker 3: thirty top aircraft that ended up getting destroyed on the ground,
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  Speaker 3: as well as the four Fastbirds little birds. Sorry, because
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  Speaker 3: once we had those pilots down, we're trying to figure
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: out how to get them back. We got the first
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  Speaker 3: one back quickly, and then now all of a sudden
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: we figure out where the second one is.
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  Speaker 2: But so does Iran. They of course are doing everything
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: they can. They're scoured. It's a huge, huge, vast area.
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  Speaker 3: If you do one of those Google Earth searches, you
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: can see the terrains just it's so hard to figure out.
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  Speaker 3: Easy for a guy to hide inside of all that,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: but with so many people looking for him, you know,
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  Speaker 3: it's literally your race for the clock, see.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Who can get there first.
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  Speaker 3: But then when you found out that we you know
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: that they figured out the Uranians figured out where we were.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: We had all of our helicopters and gunships and everything
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: else started coming under the fire. We lost an A
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  Speaker 3: ten attack helicopter, attack ground attack aircraft in addition to
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: all these others you're talking about here, and that nobody
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: was killed.
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  Speaker 2: Is just amazing.
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  Speaker 3: But it did come at a pretty big cost because
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  Speaker 3: the mission itself didn't succeed the raid part, and then
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  Speaker 3: you have all those aircraft, so a.
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  Speaker 2: Total of six seven right two for six seven.
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  Speaker 3: Total of seven aircraft were ross plus the F fifteen
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: make that eight. So it was pretty costly, but the
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: under fire.
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  Speaker 1: Pretty amazing, it is, and God bless the American soldier
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  Speaker 1: and I am so awe inspired by them. But you
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  Speaker 1: talk about this mission we had rescue the pilot mission.
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  Speaker 1: But also it suggests to me that you're talking about
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  Speaker 1: some other mission. I know that maybe there's rumors and
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: discussions about going in and getting what's left of the
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: nuclear stockpile or But that's boots on the ground kind
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  Speaker 1: of stuff, isn't it. I mean, if they're gonna lun
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: it isn't Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so we know there were there were so there
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  Speaker 3: were over one hundred boots on the ground and martyr.
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  Speaker 3: That's why this was so amazing that nobody lost their
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  Speaker 3: lives because imagine, for all those aircraft you've seen burned
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: up on the ground, an other big aircraft that could
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  Speaker 3: carry those people out had to then vectory in under fire,
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  Speaker 3: get all off the ground, not get shot down, and
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: get everybody out because it could have been literally catastrophic
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  Speaker 3: if that bird had been knocked out as well. But yeah,
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  Speaker 3: it appears my best analysis, based on what I've been
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  Speaker 3: able to piece together from satellite imagery and everything else,
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  Speaker 3: is that there was probably going to be a raid.
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  Speaker 3: I don't think that there was enough troops that were
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  Speaker 3: involved to get anything, but they could have been trying
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  Speaker 3: to raid something at either at Isfahan or in the tense.
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  Speaker 1: Rotten by there. But I don't partial through the whole thing.
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  Speaker 1: But boots on the ground, boots on the ground, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: if we are entering the land of Iran, we are
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  Speaker 1: doing an operation to blow something up or raid or whatever,
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  Speaker 1: that's effectively boots on the ground in the country. Haven't
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  Speaker 1: we really just started it. I don't want to draw
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  Speaker 1: parallels with Vietnam and advisors, which ultimately blow into a
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  Speaker 1: whole bunch of troops, but it's got to start somewhere.
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  Speaker 1: And if I mean, rescuing a pilot seems me one
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  Speaker 1: arguably legitimate thing. No, we had to send guys in there.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, we had to land on the ground to
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  Speaker 1: pick up our pilot. But if you're going to send
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  Speaker 1: people in in a transfert plane or whatever to do
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  Speaker 1: an operation, go after a facility, you know, go go
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: after individuals. That to me is more land warfare, isn't it?
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  Speaker 1: Or is just my lack of idust?
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  Speaker 2: For sure it is.
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  Speaker 3: And I've been watching for this because I've got a
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  Speaker 3: number of sources connected to folks on the ground in
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  Speaker 3: the region. Uh and and even what's been publicly talked about.
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  Speaker 3: You don't even have to have special access because you see,
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  Speaker 3: we said the eighty second Airborne Theater on the Marine
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  Speaker 3: Expeditionary Unit, two of those Delta Force Rangers, and some
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: on some unknown other round forces. So everything was signaled
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  Speaker 3: that something was gonna happen. They weren't there to, you know,
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  Speaker 3: to watch the boats go up and down the or
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  Speaker 3: park in the straight of horror moves.
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  Speaker 2: UH. So they were definitely gonna sit there for some
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: kind of reasons.
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  Speaker 3: So I've been watching to see I think this probably
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  Speaker 3: was supposed to have been it. Now then we wait
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: to find out what happens next because we kind of dodged.
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  Speaker 2: A bullet on this one. We'll see what we do next.
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  Speaker 1: Uh. Line in the sand. This sounds like Donald Trump's
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  Speaker 1: drawn one, but he has erased them and moved them
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  Speaker 1: and prior occasions that some people are criticizing them for it.
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  Speaker 1: But eight pm tonight, I guess as Bridges and Infrastructure Day,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, you've warned about this, lots of people warning
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  Speaker 1: about the humanitarian crisis. Isn't going to drive the Iranian
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  Speaker 1: people away from their potential interest in helping the United
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  Speaker 1: States overthrow the evil Empire. I don't know, but it
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: sounds terrible. But this whole thing is all swirling about
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  Speaker 1: this conversation, the broader conversation over international law violations, EVA
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  Speaker 1: Convention violations. That these are uniquely civilian target civilian infrastructure,
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  Speaker 1: then it's a violation of international law. But there's a
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  Speaker 1: gray area. Well, if the troops are using it, if
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the Iranian forces are using it, if they are refueling
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: their airplanes at any given facility, or they're using a
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  Speaker 1: bridge to take military equipment over, you can make an
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: argument that's a justifiable military target. Anyway, How does this end,
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, just to touch on that laws of war issue,
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  Speaker 3: that's supposed to be something in all during my time
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  Speaker 3: in uniform with sacricinct and that would even supersede any
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  Speaker 3: kind of particular military utility. We just said we have
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  Speaker 3: to rise above and if we want to hold anybody
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  Speaker 3: else accountable the world, we have to operate.
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  Speaker 2: By the laws of war, and we did. We were
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  Speaker 2: very ruthless on it.
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  Speaker 3: I saw some of our troops actually be charged on
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  Speaker 3: some of those violations during the Afghanistan War.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, nobody was above the law on this one.
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  Speaker 3: Now we're in some areas where some targets you just
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  Speaker 3: can't twist it around to say that they're lawful in
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  Speaker 3: that area. You talk about if something is used for
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  Speaker 3: military utility and it's a civilian target, absolutely fair game.
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  Speaker 2: According to the laws of war. You don't have to
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  Speaker 2: bend that one.
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  Speaker 3: But if something wasn't used and it was just a
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  Speaker 3: civilian target, then it doesn't qualify for that. So that's
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  Speaker 3: something that's a little bit we're playing in gray zone.
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  Speaker 3: In some areas, it's not even gray. It's just not
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  Speaker 3: gonna work out well for us.
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  Speaker 2: But I'll tell you, you.
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  Speaker 3: Talk about President Trump kind of changing the deadlines and
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: all these things that have shifted since then. Well, just
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  Speaker 3: minutes before you and I came on the air here
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  Speaker 3: he posted a new one here, which is pretty.
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  Speaker 2: Troubling to me.
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  Speaker 3: He says a whole civilization will die tonight, never to
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  Speaker 3: be brought back again. I don't want that to happen,
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  Speaker 3: but it probably will. However, now we have a past tense.
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  Speaker 3: Now we have a complete and total regime change where different,
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  Speaker 3: smarter less radicalized minds prevail. Who knows, maybe something wonderful
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: can happen. We will find out tonight in one of
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  Speaker 3: the most important moments in the long and complex history
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  Speaker 3: of the world. That's not really reassuring, because listen, I've
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  Speaker 3: been going through my mind to see what could he
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: be talking about with these truth socials He's been person about,
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  Speaker 3: you know, devastation, and I'm thinking, what could he do
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  Speaker 3: different than the jasms or the Tomahawks, or the other
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  Speaker 3: bombs that we have, even the bomb of the Moab penetrators,
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  Speaker 3: et cetera, the bucker Busters, nothing can really cause that
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  Speaker 3: much damage. But now when you're talking about something this categorical,
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  Speaker 3: I mean only a nuclear weapon that didn't.
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  Speaker 2: Do that, And I just pray to God that's not
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  Speaker 2: what he's thinking.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and that's what I'm hearing when you read the words.
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  Speaker 1: When I heard, I was going to ask you the
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: question out right. I had a listener calling this morning
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: talking about electromagnetic pulse. Maybe take out all of their
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: electrical infrastructure with that way, But that requires using a
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  Speaker 1: nuclear weapon. I think using a new clear weapon undernath
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: circumstances is not going to inure to our benefit long term,
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  Speaker 1: I mean globally, international community wise, you know, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: we are the only power who's ever used a nuclear
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  Speaker 1: weapon and in a conflict. But I don't know that
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  Speaker 1: the public here in the United States has the stomach
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  Speaker 1: for all of that, and whether it even will be
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  Speaker 1: the appropriate thing to do. Talk about again, going back
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  Speaker 1: to whether or not it's a violation of international law.
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  Speaker 1: That's wholesale eradication of people without regard to whether the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: part of a military or not.
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  Speaker 3: Right that, And let's hope that this is just rhetoric. Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: because if he actually does this, I mean it is
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  Speaker 3: categorical war crime of the highest ordering. We will be
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  Speaker 3: a pariah in the world. Nobody will be with us
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  Speaker 3: on this one.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, you could you.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: Could say, all right, during World War Two and there's
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: been years fighting already, and there was a calculation made, well,
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: if we keep going with his island hopping process, it
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: could be a million people could die just to get
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: to there. But so we're going to use these relatively
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: small tactical well what then was the only nuclear weapon,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: but today's term would be a very small tactical look
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  Speaker 3: to say, look, we'll keep doing this until you surrender.
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  Speaker 3: You can make an argument for that. A lot of
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: people have said that still was you know, immoral or whatever.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not going to rehash history, but you could make
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: that argument there, and obviously it stood up. You can't
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: make that argument here. This was not a war imposed
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: upon us. This was there was no Pearl Harbor where
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: we were attacked and we're responding. This is one that
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: we chose to do and there is no reason why
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: we need to do it now. So I just pray
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: to God that's not what we're talking about. What he's
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: talking about.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Well, putting aside that catastrophic potential, if they stick with
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: conventional weapons rockets in the bombs they've been dropping, and
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: they start going after the bridges and the infrastructure that
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: they've been speaking of, will it have an impact? Will
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: it couldn't work.
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  Speaker 2: That's the key thing too.
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  Speaker 3: That's one of the other reasons why I was puzzled,
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: because the issue is the control of the Strait of
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: horror movees.
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  Speaker 2: That's everything.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: You can say, yeah, we want the missiles and long
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: range something, we want them to change their policies, but
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  Speaker 3: the problem is that the missiles are in twenty seven
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  Speaker 3: underground missile cities that we cannot destroy.
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  Speaker 2: We may have hit one or.
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  Speaker 3: Two of them damaged, but they can be repaired. Others
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  Speaker 3: we haven't even touched, so you're just not military. It
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: doesn't matter how many bunker busses, you just can't get
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: them all. And then the other issue is that straight
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  Speaker 3: of horror moves. Everything is around that because of the
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: impact on the global economy, which we're already seeing unfold.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: But there's like six different ways uron could keep that
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: closed down. You just taking some territory won't do it.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: Just taking out missiles won't do it. Taking out their navy,
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: their visibles, navy won't do it. So there's nothing you
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: can bomb, nothing, no bridge you can take out that's
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: going to cause them force them to open that straight
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: and that is your problem. You can bomb all kinds
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: of stuff, but nothing militarily. We'll get that straight open,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: and if it doesn't, then we're going to be in
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: real trouble. And then again that circles me back to
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: somebody thinking, well, here is a big solution that can.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Solve all those if we had greater support from the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: international community. Let's say the Arab nations all joined and
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: said we're going to stop this Iranian threat. If the
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: European Union, the NATO countries is I had to say,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: you know what, it isn't our best interest to help
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: out here. Let's get the straight of horror moves open
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: with if we collectively got together on the same page,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: as comical and laughable and improbable as that is, Daniel Davis,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: could that open the straight of horror moves? Would more help? Okay,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: this is.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely not, and so all that would if you let's
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: say you got the entire navy of all of our
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: NATO allies, and even though it's not an article vibe,
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: they acted like it was and sent the whole thing
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: over there.
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  Speaker 2: Ships alone can't open it up.
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: All you're going to be doing is getting them blown
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: up or sunk, because they could be literally attacked from
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: everywhere in their country, which of course is as big
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: as portions of Western Europe. I mean, it's a massive area,
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: and you just can't we just can't knock their stuff out.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: There's too many of them. If you got all the
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: GCC countries, every single one of them, come in now,
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: then you have made them an even bigger target. Because
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: Iran has been careful about what they've hid in these countries,
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: and they have signaled very clearly, we can go after
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: your life blood, your desalinization plants, and your oil infrastructure,
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: which we have hit a little bit but left the
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: important stuff off. They openly said this, but they said,
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: if you join in with them, and it turns into
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: be a big strike here, all of that's on the table,
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: and the GCC countries know they have the capacity to
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: act on that, which is what they're saying right now,
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: depending on whatever President Trump does tonight. If he hits
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: these targets, even with conventional weapons, they say, that's already
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: going to happen, which would just devastate the entire Middle
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: East because then it's no longer a matter of whether
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: the straits open up, because your facilities to process oil
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: will be so badly damaged it will take potentially years
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: to replace.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the carg Island problem right there. Sure, it's
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: an easy target. It's right there. It runs what ninety
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: percent of the Iranian oil revenue is there at carg Island.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: You think, well, let's just blow that up. It's the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: ripple effect. It's taking that oil and the reserves out
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: of the world global economy. That's why I think it
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: hasn't been done anyhow, Daniel Davis. I'd love to know
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: where you think this is going to end up, but
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: it sounds like we're all swirling question marks around our
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: head this morning. But effectively it's not going to get
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: us really anywhere if we move forward with the bombing campaign.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: It's definitely the bottom line here. I don't know what's happening.
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: I've been pinging every source that I've got it. I
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: don't think anybody knows except for Donald Trump, and so
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: we're all waiting to find out. But I can tell
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: you with great confidence, if we start down this path here,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: it's going to be dark and bad for us.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I wish we could win on a more positive note,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, but quite often this is where we end up.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: It's the reality of warfare. Daniel Davis Deep Dive Find
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: his podcast