Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / How is the Canada-U.S. trade war affecting Carney's approval ratings

Transcript

How is the Canada-U.S. trade war affecting Carney's approval ratings · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Here with some polling numbers on just how Canadians are
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: feeling about the Canada-U.S. trade war is David Coletto, the
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: CEO of Abacus Data. Nice to see you, David. Thanks
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: for coming in.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: Good to see you, JP.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: So give us a sense of where things stand with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: the political horse race.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: Well, we were in the field last week. We released
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: these numbers on Sunday and they show that, you know,
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Two things. One, Donald Trump's back up on the agenda.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Forty-five percent of Canadians put the Trump administration as one
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: of the top three issues. It's up seven points in
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: two weeks, not surprising. And the result of that is
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: all the metrics we track, vote, government approval, how people
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: feel about the prime minister, they're all up as well.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Every time Trump returns— it seems to help the Liberals politically.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: And so we see an environment right now headed into
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: these by-elections where the Liberals are not at the peak,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: but they've rebounded. I mean, their numbers have been pretty
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: good since Mr. Carney became prime minister. they're better than
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: they were just a few weeks ago.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there had been a little decline, and now they're
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: kind of back up. I think we have a chart.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Let's show the folks at home the graphic of how
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: respondents view the government's handling of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So as you say, every time this happens, every time
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Trump's kind of back in the news. the prime minister
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: and his party get a bit of a boost. Tell
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: us about that phenomenon and maybe tell us about how
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Canadians view the government's handling of what's been a rocky
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: week or so with the trade war.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, generally speaking, as we've seen from multiple polls, most
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Canadians agree that we should have walked away from the deal.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: They've spent time sort of assessing what the prime minister's
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: told them, what they've seen in the news, how they
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: feel about Donald Trump and the Trump administration. And there's
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: pretty close to not a consensus, but as good as
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: it gets these days. on that issue. And as you
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: just noted, you know, 50 percent approving of the job
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the government's doing on this issue, it's the issue that
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: moves their numbers the most. We ran a fancy regression
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: model that basically tells us that Mark Carney's government's approval
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: rating is affected more by how people feel about how
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: they're handling this issue than anything else. Cost of living
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: is number two, but it's nowhere near as important. And
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: that suggests that for those who think this government's doing
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: a good job, those who might vote Liberal in those
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: by-elections today, They're doing it in large part because this
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: issue is important to them, and they think the prime
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: minister and the Liberal Party is best able to deal
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: with it.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you wrote today, the Carney government's approval rating is strong,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: but our new analysis suggests that strength rests on a
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: much narrower foundation than the top-line number suggests. really dependent
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: on how.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: This— It is, because when you ask Canadians, how is
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: the government doing on housing or cost of living or
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: health care or, you know, name another issue, and they
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: don't do as well. Those numbers report lower than their
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: overall approval rating and certainly lower than how they're doing
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: on two, which they get the highest marks for, dealing
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: with the Trump administration in the United States and defense
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: and security. These are areas where, you know, the government
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: really has assets that more people say they're doing a
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: good job than think the government is as a whole.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: We also have another graphic. Let's put this up on
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: the screen for our viewers at home. And this shows
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: how people approve or disapprove of the government's job overall,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: so not just focused on the U.S. trade war. What
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: did you find there?
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Well, here we've seen about a four-point increase in two weeks.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: So that's outside the margin of error. It's a real change.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: I think it's a reflection of, again, what I said earlier,
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: when Donald Trump is— and he's been in the news, basically,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: for 18, 19 months. But when he— It's more acute.—
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: threatens us, when now there's a lot more uncertainty. You know,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: I've argued that one of the things that many Canadians
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: like about the prime minister, like about this government, is
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: how reassuring it is. And so when there's moments like this,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: when many Canadians waking up that Saturday morning, finding out
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: that we're not negotiating anymore, wondering, what does it mean
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: for me? They seem to be telling us in our
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: polls they're more comfortable with the idea— that Mark Carney's
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: in charge than, let's say, it was Pierre Pauly or
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: somebody else. Now, that doesn't mean, again, there's not vulnerability there.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: But every time this happens, we see these numbers move
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: like approval for the government.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: What does this mean for the by-elections, then, that are
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: underway in Ontario, B.C.? Quebec tonight, given what you've found
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: from voters, do you suspect there will be a good
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: night for the Liberals tonight? How does that translate?
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, we know that two of them were
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: safe Liberal seats. They should remain that way. The polls
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: are suggesting there's been no real change in how people
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: are feeling about They would vote when we look at
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: BC or the lower mainland and in Toronto. I mean,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Quebec's an interesting one. Quebec is the one province, more
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: than any other, where Donald Trump is the number one issue,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: even higher than the cost of living. And so one
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: of the things I think that these last two weeks
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: have done, sometimes by-elections become very localized. They're about local issues,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: local candidates. This is nationalized again. And we're back to
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: this conversation. And I have to believe that's going to
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: give the Liberals a real advantage tonight in all three ridings.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the trade war, very salient in Quebec, right? Certainly,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: La Belle-Provence most concerned, it seems, about what's going on
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: with the United States. You were also in the U.S.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I know you haven't crunched all the numbers as of yet.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: You haven't put out the report on what sort of
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: information you gathered from voters south of the border, but
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: some interesting attitudes towards the trade war, towards tariffs on Canada.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe give us a preview of what you heard from
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: voters in some of the key swing states. that are
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: close to the northern border and, frankly, could decide the
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: balance of power in Washington.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: NICK SCHIFRIN Yeah. So, this will be out on Wednesday,
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: but we surveyed 500 registered voters in five states that
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: are all kind of close, that we're going to likely decide,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: or at least some of them will decide, the Senate,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: which is really important. Most think the House is going
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: to go Democrat, but the Senate is still in play.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: And what we learned is, one, most Americans overwhelmingly like Canada.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: They like Canadians. They don't approve. Even many Trump voters
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: don't think that this fight with Canada... One is going
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: to create jobs in their own state, is going to
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: make life more affordable for them. In fact, they think
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: those— it' s going to do the opposite. And so, the rhetoric
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: that the White House is sending to Americans on this— you know, when,
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: in Iowa, the president talks about defending farmers. Most don't
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: think that this trade war is helping farmers. To those
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: in Michigan who think that, you know, oh, we're going
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: to move all our automotive jobs to the United States,
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: most don't think that the tariffs that he's threatening on
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: autos for January 1st are going to create more jobs
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: or make things better. And so I think what this
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: research really shows me is that this issue actually may
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: become not the issue that Americans vote on, but is
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: helping define the choice for them. And so it doesn't
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: look like it's going to help the Republicans or President Trump.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: It could move votes. It potentially has the power to
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: move votes in some key swing states, right?
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Because it's fitting with this narrative that I think is
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: developing that the decisions the White House are making are
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: making life harder. for the Americans. Here, we're picking a
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: fight with a neighboring friend who, yes, you know, yeah,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: we'd love to make all the cars in Canada, but
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: they've actually come to the conclusion that may not be
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: even in their best interest. Yeah. Okay.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I'll leave it there. CEO of Abacus Data, David Coletto.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Nice to see you, my friend.