Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Stimulus Coming?🚀Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: QUI incoming Does this mean risk assets could be benefiting
- 0:03Speaker 1: from where the market heads in. I'll break it down today.
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- 0:49Speaker 1: over to a couple of points I want to hit on.
- 0:51Speaker 1: And this is an interesting analysis because this is the
- 0:54Speaker 1: credit and liquidity programs and the balance sheet that the
- 0:58Speaker 1: FED is working with now if you look back all
- 1:00Speaker 1: the way into twenty fourteen fifteen, that was where we
- 1:03Speaker 1: had this slow grind of assets coming in, and then
- 1:08Speaker 1: of course we all know what happened there. In twenty nineteen,
- 1:10Speaker 1: this was of course the last pandemic that we've dealt with,
- 1:14Speaker 1: and then boom, of course we saw that kind of
- 1:16Speaker 1: liquidity coming in. This is the kind of move we've
- 1:19Speaker 1: been cutting. And then right here, I want to show
- 1:21Speaker 1: you something as I squeezed this down, because this gets
- 1:24Speaker 1: really interesting when you start zooming in to twenty four
- 1:29Speaker 1: and five.
- 1:30Speaker 2: Look at this right here.
- 1:31Speaker 1: This might be the expansion of the balance sheet. And
- 1:36Speaker 1: if we are seeing that kind of loop moving in
- 1:39Speaker 1: quickly in early twenty twenty six, get ready, guys, this
- 1:43Speaker 1: could be the Q signal that we've been waiting for,
- 1:45Speaker 1: where liquidity starts to really pour back into the markets.
- 1:48Speaker 1: For sure, job numbers. This is good news in the
- 1:52Speaker 1: sense that it is stabilizing. It's the lowest sense March
- 1:55Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one. This is a good thing in general,
- 1:58Speaker 1: and I think as we go in to the first
- 2:02Speaker 1: half of the year, if we can maintain this pace,
- 2:04Speaker 1: I think that will be a good position for the
- 2:07Speaker 1: fed US housing market has reached its most unaffordable level
- 2:12Speaker 1: in history. This is a big problem I think in
- 2:14Speaker 1: housing in general, and as we see possibly rates coming
- 2:18Speaker 1: down this year, it's going to open up an opportunity
- 2:21Speaker 1: for if we can get more houses available for a
- 2:24Speaker 1: boom in the housing industry in terms of new acquisition.
- 2:27Speaker 1: And you're gonna see a lot of refis too, because
- 2:29Speaker 1: a lot of people are financed at around six to
- 2:30Speaker 1: seven in maybe higher percent. If we see a five
- 2:34Speaker 1: in front of it, get ready, because I think that's
- 2:36Speaker 1: going to be a big factor. This was breaking news
- 2:38Speaker 1: coming in from the White House, and that is Trump
- 2:40Speaker 1: is now banning large institutional investors from buying single family homes.
- 2:44Speaker 1: This is a big deal because we all know this
- 2:47Speaker 1: has been a problem that has existed out there where
- 2:50Speaker 1: most of this inventory gets sucked up by major investment houses.
- 2:54Speaker 1: This of course now changing the game. Trump may be
- 2:57Speaker 1: onto something big here. We'll see if he comes up
- 3:00Speaker 1: with an execution plan.
- 3:02Speaker 2: That actually works.
- 3:03Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick because
- 3:04Speaker 1: this gets into the labor. Back to the labor topic
- 3:07Speaker 1: and whether or not is decoupling from our current growth.
- 3:10Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 3:12Speaker 3: So first there's a clear signal that the labor market
- 3:14Speaker 3: is decoupling from growth. So growth remains really solid, but
- 3:19Speaker 3: the labor market is not keeping up with that growth.
- 3:22Speaker 3: Drop creation is not keeping up with that growth. That
- 3:24Speaker 3: is the big dilemma we have in which is this decoupling.
- 3:29Speaker 3: Beyond that, the FED is storn. You know as well
- 3:32Speaker 3: as I do, Scott that if you're worried about inflation,
- 3:35Speaker 3: there's reasons to be worried. If you're worried about your
- 3:38Speaker 3: second part of your mandate, there's reasons to be worried.
- 3:41Speaker 3: You have FED officials that have different sensitivity, so they're
- 3:44Speaker 3: all over the place, and you have no strategic or
- 3:47Speaker 3: leadership unifiers in this mix. So the FED is going
- 3:51Speaker 3: to be very divided regardless of what comes out on Friday.
- 3:55Speaker 1: So I mean, given those tensions that you paint, what
- 3:58Speaker 1: do you think they'll do later this month?
- 4:01Speaker 3: So I think they'll do nothing later this month. They're
- 4:03Speaker 3: going to remain on hold. They will signal one to
- 4:08Speaker 3: two cuts this in twenty twenty six as a whole.
- 4:13Speaker 3: But what I think is the problem is they're not
- 4:15Speaker 3: going to give us clear indication of what is that
- 4:18Speaker 3: strategic view? Do they like me? Believe that we are
- 4:23Speaker 3: on the cusp of significant productivity improvements that bring up
- 4:28Speaker 3: the speed for non inflationary growth, or will they stay
- 4:33Speaker 3: very data dependent and therefore torn between the different parts
- 4:37Speaker 3: of their mandate. I fear that we're not going to
- 4:39Speaker 3: get that strategic clarity until a new FED chair comes in.
- 4:45Speaker 1: That's a pretty big statement because when you look at
- 4:47Speaker 1: the FED decision probability in January, it it is skyrocketed
- 4:51Speaker 1: really from before Christmas it was basically a sixty eight.
- 4:55Speaker 2: Percent no change. Here we are right.
- 4:57Speaker 1: Now trading our poly market in Earth January and you
- 5:01Speaker 1: can see it right there, over ninety percent on the
- 5:03Speaker 1: no change.
- 5:04Speaker 2: So this looks to be the.
- 5:06Speaker 1: Case, at least right now from a FED ray cut.
- 5:09Speaker 1: So the real question is is how is this market
- 5:11Speaker 1: playing out into January twenty eighth on the FOMC. Do
- 5:15Speaker 1: we get a surprise cut or could something else happen
- 5:18Speaker 1: that would push Powell into more of a defensive position,
- 5:22Speaker 1: or does he go a little bit more hawkish here
- 5:23Speaker 1: with a pause and then signaling into the later in
- 5:27Speaker 1: the year for cuts. I think the question here will
- 5:29Speaker 1: really boil down to who the new FED chair is
- 5:32Speaker 1: going to be and I anticipate to stimulate the market.
- 5:37Speaker 1: We may see an announcement coming in from the White
- 5:40Speaker 1: House prior to the FOMC meeting for January, So it's
- 5:43Speaker 1: a critical one to keep an eye on.
- 5:45Speaker 2: For sure.
- 5:46Speaker 1: Tom Lee is hitting on this whole point right here,
- 5:49Speaker 1: and this is of course dealing with the tariff issue
- 5:52Speaker 1: that could be brewing, and he's looking at it as
- 5:55Speaker 1: more of a possible contrarian signal. Now, remember that we
- 6:00Speaker 1: have the tariff decision coming in from the Supreme Court
- 6:04Speaker 1: and it's going to be coming in quickly, and right
- 6:07Speaker 1: now it appears, based on polymarket it is a very
- 6:11Speaker 1: low chance that these tariffs hold and that they will
- 6:15Speaker 1: be overturned. If that is the case, how does the
- 6:18Speaker 1: market respond to this? Is this a positive thing? I
- 6:22Speaker 1: think there may be some benefit here from the market
- 6:25Speaker 1: in general. The White House has already started to soften
- 6:29Speaker 1: their position as well, and I think that starts to
- 6:32Speaker 1: play into a bigger narrative going forward.
- 6:34Speaker 2: What is Trump going.
- 6:35Speaker 1: To do to try to keep this as a bargaining
- 6:37Speaker 1: chip that he's been using around the world right now?
- 6:41Speaker 1: Hopefully it does slow things down, but in reality, the
- 6:44Speaker 1: question is really going to boil down to inflation and
- 6:47Speaker 1: job growth and of course wage increases. That's going to
- 6:50Speaker 1: be the big factor that really saves this economy. All right,
- 6:54Speaker 1: So you had Morgan Stanley a couple of days ago
- 6:56Speaker 1: launching ETFs. Now today they're getting ready to launch a spot.
- 7:01Speaker 2: So this is a big deal.
- 7:02Speaker 1: Salon was first kind of interesting in the sense, but
- 7:05Speaker 1: the fact that Morgan Stanley is doing this pretty big
- 7:08Speaker 1: deal because this validates I think a lot of traditional
- 7:11Speaker 1: finance and a lot of investors that are at Morgan
- 7:13Speaker 1: Stanley that now have the ability to go in and
- 7:15Speaker 1: get exposure to that as well. Other things that are
- 7:18Speaker 1: good news I think for micro strategy and bitcoin is
- 7:22Speaker 1: that MSCI has come out and announced that they will
- 7:25Speaker 1: not be removing bitcoin and crypto treasury companies from its indexes.
- 7:29Speaker 1: This was a threat that happened early in December. I
- 7:33Speaker 1: believe it was from JP Morgan who kind of raised
- 7:37Speaker 1: the flag, putting a lot of pressure on micro Strategy
- 7:39Speaker 1: and of courses, of course, I think bails out strategy
- 7:43Speaker 1: going forward, so the result will be less money raised
- 7:45Speaker 1: through shared delution, and I think that's why we're not
- 7:48Speaker 1: seeing markets necessarily going bonkers right now. But let me
- 7:52Speaker 1: know what you guys think. Is this going to be
- 7:54Speaker 1: a big impact on micro strategy and bitcoin at all?
- 7:57Speaker 1: Or are we just looking at more of an institutional
- 8:00Speaker 1: track record here Going forward for crypto, I want to
- 8:03Speaker 1: go over to Tom Lee and his analysis on the
- 8:07Speaker 1: first few days of trading for twenty six Take a look.
- 8:11Speaker 4: Well, it's the start of the year, and I think
- 8:13Speaker 4: it's important to revisit the rule of first five days.
- 8:17Speaker 4: And the rule of first five days is that how
- 8:20Speaker 4: stocks trade in the first week of the year often
- 8:24Speaker 4: is a good directional signal for how the rest of
- 8:26Speaker 4: the year plays out. Now, I know many of you
- 8:29Speaker 4: might think that this is a little cuckoo because how
- 8:33Speaker 4: can five days determine the year? But it does make
- 8:36Speaker 4: some intuitive sense. I mean, basically, you get a sense
- 8:38Speaker 4: for how the market's appetite is for the year based
- 8:42Speaker 4: on how markets trade initially. Right, if there's no demand
- 8:45Speaker 4: for stocks at the start, what would cause them to
- 8:48Speaker 4: suddenly do better? But let's look at the math.
- 8:53Speaker 2: Since nineteen fifty.
- 8:55Speaker 4: There have been seventy six years and the average return
- 8:58Speaker 4: for the market is twelve percent year. Okay, but let's
- 9:03Speaker 4: look at the years where the first five days were positive,
- 9:08Speaker 4: and that's forty nine of the seventy six years, and
- 9:10Speaker 4: you can see the average return is sixteen percent and
- 9:13Speaker 4: the win ratio is eighty four percent. Whereas if you're
- 9:17Speaker 4: down the first five days that's twenty seven times, then
- 9:21Speaker 4: the full year returns only three percent, and you're up
- 9:23Speaker 4: fifty six percent of the time, So pretty sizable performance
- 9:27Speaker 4: different sixteen percent versus.
- 9:29Speaker 1: Three All right, sizeable performance difference. I'm looking here at
- 9:34Speaker 1: the chart between December thirty first and the first few
- 9:37Speaker 1: days up six almost seven percent. This is bitcoin right
- 9:41Speaker 1: there in the first five So we didn't have a
- 9:44Speaker 1: good year last year, So Tom, I'm not sure what
- 9:47Speaker 1: voodoo charts you were looking at there, but I'm not
- 9:50Speaker 1: sure this is going to.
- 9:51Speaker 2: Be playing out again this year.
- 9:53Speaker 1: I am actually bullish though for the year, and I
- 9:55Speaker 1: think market structure is going to be the big narrative here.
- 9:58Speaker 1: As long as we don't get in skirm which is
- 10:00Speaker 1: I feel fairly solid, we're going to see some upside here.
- 10:02Speaker 2: Now.
- 10:03Speaker 1: Could we see a replacement in the market, Yeah, these
- 10:05Speaker 1: are markets, of course we could, and that, of course
- 10:08Speaker 1: is only going to represent some more opportunities to get
- 10:10Speaker 1: in and buy the dip. Tom Lee is doing that
- 10:13Speaker 1: right here with Ethereum. Bitmine bought another one hundred and
- 10:16Speaker 1: five million in eight over the past week. Total holdings
- 10:19Speaker 1: now thirteen point two billion dollars in e This is crazy.
- 10:26Speaker 1: For sure, they are going to become I think number
- 10:28Speaker 1: one because I anticipate they're going to do some acquisitions
- 10:31Speaker 1: this year. It's likely going to get approved in their
- 10:33Speaker 1: board meeting, and I think that will only grow Bitmine
- 10:37Speaker 1: as maybe the number one digital asset treasury company globally,
- 10:42Speaker 1: maybe even larger than micro Strategy.
- 10:44Speaker 2: So watch that one.
- 10:45Speaker 1: A couple of news points I wanted to hit on
- 10:47Speaker 1: quickly was XRP is still planning to remain private, so
- 10:51Speaker 1: there was talk of an IPO this year. Ripple has
- 10:54Speaker 1: come back in and said no, no IPO plans for
- 10:58Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. Now there are some I still believe
- 11:01Speaker 1: they will.
- 11:02Speaker 2: Be going public.
- 11:04Speaker 1: The question is really I think drilling down to whether
- 11:07Speaker 1: or not and when we get the market structure built.
- 11:10Speaker 1: Once that's in place, it's very possible you could see
- 11:12Speaker 1: a press release within a few weeks of companies mini
- 11:16Speaker 1: companies that would be announcing going public. So that I
- 11:20Speaker 1: think is the key for XRP. Monica Loong was on
- 11:23Speaker 1: here talking about this, that they're going to go in
- 11:25Speaker 1: with their strategy to build comply in infrastructure and tradify
- 11:28Speaker 1: and crypto and do all of that in terms of.
- 11:31Speaker 2: On and off ramps.
- 11:31Speaker 1: This is the kind of the thing they've done in
- 11:34Speaker 1: terms of acquisition. They've also secured seventy plus licenses worldwide.
- 11:38Speaker 1: This will continue to grow. One of the reasons I
- 11:41Speaker 1: still like XARP is one of the big ones. Let
- 11:43Speaker 1: me ask you guys one thing, and that is inevitably
- 11:47Speaker 1: we will see RIP will go a public. Once that
- 11:51Speaker 1: happens and you have an XRP token, it's probably going
- 11:53Speaker 1: to benefit just from the buzz itself. My curious question
- 11:57Speaker 1: is would you trade both or would you split it
- 12:02Speaker 1: and say, I know, I'm going to go with the
- 12:03Speaker 1: stock or I'm going to stay with token. Let me
- 12:04Speaker 1: know in the comments down below how you guys would
- 12:06Speaker 1: trade that kind of situation. I want to go to
- 12:09Speaker 1: a clip real quick because this gets into XRP becoming
- 12:13Speaker 1: the new institutional darling and why take a look.
- 12:17Speaker 5: It's actually been interesting is that during the doldrums of
- 12:19Speaker 5: Q four you actually saw a lot of people piling
- 12:22Speaker 5: into those XRP ETFs, which is the exact opposite of
- 12:25Speaker 5: what happens with the spot bitcoin and E three ets,
- 12:28Speaker 5: where people really move in tandem with the price of
- 12:31Speaker 5: the coin. But it was the fact that it is
- 12:34Speaker 5: a way to have a higher percentage jump. So people
- 12:36Speaker 5: were buying the dip with XRP in Q four I
- 12:39Speaker 5: thinking this is a less crowded trade than bitcoin or ether,
- 12:42Speaker 5: and then that proved out to be true just in
- 12:44Speaker 5: the first six trading days of January.
- 12:47Speaker 6: Is it possible at XRP and Solana are simply taking
- 12:50Speaker 6: their place as kind of the next cool thing to
- 12:52Speaker 6: know about, or do they have a legitimately different and
- 12:56Speaker 6: more relevant use case.
- 12:57Speaker 5: Well, in the context of just looking to make you know,
- 13:00Speaker 5: an investment that has bigger gains, you're not going to
- 13:03Speaker 5: get that from Bitcoin, just because it's already so established.
- 13:05Speaker 5: You're not seeing the same kind of percentage moves. But
- 13:07Speaker 5: what's fascinating with Solana especially, it's just that it moves faster,
- 13:10Speaker 5: and so you're able to tokenize these funds move, you know,
- 13:14Speaker 5: whether it's a money market fund that you're moving along
- 13:16Speaker 5: or some other tokenized asset. It's just is more efficient
- 13:19Speaker 5: than Bitcoin as a base blockchain, which is why you're
- 13:22Speaker 5: seeing more use cases.
- 13:24Speaker 1: All right, so a lot of things unpacked there. One thing,
- 13:27Speaker 1: of course is yes, I agree in the sense that
- 13:29Speaker 1: institutions have woken up to what we've seen with XRP.
- 13:33Speaker 1: Will they continue that track over time? I believe they will.
- 13:37Speaker 1: But the real question is going to be on Solana.
- 13:39Speaker 1: If we continue to see Solana with all the good
- 13:42Speaker 1: news that we are continuing to see coming from the markets,
- 13:45Speaker 1: you know, you've got Solana now become the largest blockchain
- 13:47Speaker 1: by market CAPITALI capitalization for token is stocks.
- 13:51Speaker 2: That is huge.
- 13:52Speaker 1: Look at this chart in terms of the growth that
- 13:53Speaker 1: we've seen, this can only mean one thing for Salana,
- 13:56Speaker 1: and that is it is lagging in terms of price
- 13:59Speaker 1: perform mormance. This is due for a breakout, I believe,
- 14:03Speaker 1: and I think as we continue to see the good
- 14:05Speaker 1: news coming, it is going to continue to load up
- 14:09Speaker 1: and maybe essentially, I think institutions will start playing a
- 14:13Speaker 1: little bit more attention to this, whether it's the ETFs
- 14:15Speaker 1: or direct exposure. You've got a lot happening, including a
- 14:18Speaker 1: lot of new income of course, recording one point four
- 14:21Speaker 1: billion in network revenue in twenty twenty five.
- 14:24Speaker 2: That was a pretty big deal for Solana.
- 14:27Speaker 1: Huge and up. I think overall this year will be
- 14:30Speaker 1: the question. I think it goes up from here in
- 14:33Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. We'll continue to watch that stable point.
- 14:37Speaker 1: Also the stable point supply. Also supply sturged over nine
- 14:40Speaker 1: or a million. This is in the last twenty four hours.
- 14:44Speaker 1: Again Solana leading the pack. Here more reasons that we
- 14:48Speaker 1: should see more. Solana doing much better than it has
- 14:50Speaker 1: been over the last few weeks. But and one of
- 14:53Speaker 1: the things, if we do get stimulus into the balance sheet,
- 14:56Speaker 1: there's going to be two tokens I think that really
- 14:58Speaker 1: benefit from this this tweet right here. I think people
- 15:00Speaker 1: are far too bearish on ethan Soul today. L Ones
- 15:03Speaker 1: are the only net new category we've created in crypto.
- 15:07Speaker 1: They broke the trade off between open source and commercial software.
- 15:11Speaker 1: I totally agree with the framework. The problem has always
- 15:14Speaker 1: been liquidity. So if Powell starts injecting these two right here,
- 15:20Speaker 1: are going to benefit in a big way. Now, most
- 15:22Speaker 1: of crypto will benefit, but I think Soul and eth
- 15:25Speaker 1: are the ones that may have the most upside overall.
- 15:28Speaker 1: Brian Armstrong is tweeting out here that China has decided
- 15:32Speaker 1: to pay interest on their own scratch stable coin and
- 15:36Speaker 1: put in the word CBDC because that's a controlled token
- 15:41Speaker 1: from the Chinese government, the digital u on. But the
- 15:44Speaker 1: fact that they're paying interest on this thing that in
- 15:47Speaker 1: itself is.
- 15:47Speaker 2: A little bit of a slam dunk.
- 15:49Speaker 1: I think against what the United States has been fighting
- 15:52Speaker 1: for to reduce interest on true stable coins, not the
- 15:56Speaker 1: digital UoN, but true stable coins. Hopefully this will hold
- 16:01Speaker 1: in Congress and we won't deal with this in the
- 16:03Speaker 1: future where banks continue to push against that. But I
- 16:07Speaker 1: like the sentiment, Brian. I don't agree with the statement
- 16:10Speaker 1: because it is not a stable coin.
- 16:11Speaker 2: That's for sure.
- 16:12Speaker 1: Jake Servinski hits up on this. In terms of the
- 16:15Speaker 1: market structure. We have a lot of false alarms on
- 16:17Speaker 1: market structure.
- 16:17Speaker 2: No kidding. I get so fed up with this.
- 16:21Speaker 1: And of course the big issue right now is that
- 16:25Speaker 1: we will get a markup next week or it looks
- 16:27Speaker 1: like it's going to happen now. Whether or not we
- 16:29Speaker 1: get it going at a pace in which we get
- 16:32Speaker 1: a vote, that's the real question, because I think, just
- 16:35Speaker 1: like all politicians, they wait until it gets right down
- 16:39Speaker 1: to the wire and then they come in with their
- 16:41Speaker 1: more demands or recommendations or needs or wants. That slows
- 16:46Speaker 1: the process down once again. And then of course you're
- 16:49Speaker 1: facing another government shutdown issue at the end of January,
- 16:51Speaker 1: and then here we go again, which is why I'm
- 16:53Speaker 1: really concerned about that markup yes vote, I'm not sure
- 16:57Speaker 1: January is going to be the month for sure.
- 17:00Speaker 4: Now.
- 17:00Speaker 1: A couple of things to kind of hit on in
- 17:02Speaker 1: summer here is that you look at QWI, there is
- 17:06Speaker 1: no doubt we are in an upward trend. And just
- 17:08Speaker 1: to go back to in case you missed that in
- 17:10Speaker 1: front of the episode, this is the move that we
- 17:12Speaker 1: are in right now on the FED balance sheet. This
- 17:15Speaker 1: is the kind of number that we could be seeing now. Granted,
- 17:18Speaker 1: if you go back and look at the market, that
- 17:20Speaker 1: little blip right there has started to occur just in
- 17:24Speaker 1: the past few weeks, So imagine what this looks like
- 17:28Speaker 1: in three months. That's the thing to take home and
- 17:32Speaker 1: look at where you should be in risk assets.
- 17:36Speaker 2: Get ready, guys, it's gonna get big.
- 17:44Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
- 17:47Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
- 17:50Speaker 2: The link is in the description