Latest / Simply Bitcoin / BREAKING: Bitcoin Options Forecasting $180k NEXT MONTH | EP 1125

Transcript

BREAKING: Bitcoin Options Forecasting $180k NEXT MONTH | EP 1125 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Yo, the Bitcoin option markets just went live last week and the
• 0:04
  data in the first week of trading is suggesting 180 K
• 0:09
  Bitcoin by December 20th is much more likely than you could ever
• 0:13
  imagine. The launch of this historic
• 0:15
  options product has not only uncovered how bullish traders
• 0:19
  are on Bitcoin, but they've also broken all sorts of records.
• 0:23
  The only ETF options in the world that saw more trading
• 0:26
  volume than ibits where the SPY and the QQQ and we'll break that
• 0:30
  down for you later. And today we're also going to
• 0:33
  break down all of this and discuss why the one quadrillion
• 0:36
  dollar, you heard that right, one quadrillion dollar
• 0:39
  derivatives market could be following into Bitcoin.
• 0:42
  But before we dive into this, computing the confusing rabbit
• 0:45
  hole of options, and breakdown the bullish numbers, let's play
• 0:49
  this little video that went live on Squawk Box explaining options
• 0:52
  and what they mean for Bitcoin. All time high getting closer now
• 0:59
  to the $94,000 level in this happening as ETF options going
• 1:03
  live, giving investors a new way to hedge their exposure.
• 1:06
  Kenzie Sigalis is here joins us with more this morning.
• 1:10
  Good morning. Hey, good morning, Andrew.
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  This what's going on is what US crypto investors have been
• 1:14
  waiting for. On Tuesday, the NASDAQ listed
• 1:16
  options on Blackrock's $44 billion spot Bitcoin ETF.
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  Day one of trading showed that more than 80% of options volume
• 1:24
  recall orders to buy Bitcoin, meaning that investors are
• 1:27
  betting that the token is poised for even more gains.
• 1:30
  And this is just the first of the US based asset issuers to
• 1:33
  offer options. The other 10 providers will soon
• 1:36
  follow suit, with several more slated to list on the New York
• 1:39
  Stock Exchange later today. Now this is really a significant
• 1:42
  moment for Bitcoin adoption because rather than just buying
• 1:45
  and holding the asset, this next stage is all about creating a
• 1:48
  new margin framework for Bitcoin so that you can amplify your
• 1:52
  returns. Being able to hedge positions
• 1:54
  and make leverage bets is a big draw both to retail and
• 1:58
  institutions. And even though we've seen a lot
• 2:00
  of trading volume on the CME derivatives exchange, getting
• 2:03
  options tied to these spot crypto products on the NASDAQ
• 2:06
  and Nicey is a big unlock for traders.
• 2:09
  Because ultimately, Andrew, a more robust onshore derivatives
• 2:12
  market is how you attract fresh investment, which is a tailwind
• 2:15
  for the price of Bitcoin. It it really boggles the mind
• 2:19
  what what I was just thinking about you could do.
• 2:20
  You could write calls, You could write calls.
• 2:23
  You you could buy puts to protect your downside.
• 2:25
  You could sell puts to acquire Bitcoin at a lower price order.
• 2:28
  You can do spreads. You can do straddles.
• 2:30
  The volatility is so high the option premiums must be
• 2:33
  exorbitant so you could sell options.
• 2:35
  But the question is, does volatility come down materially?
• 2:38
  And that's what a lot of analysts say Will.
• 2:41
  Happen if that happens but does that then put a cap on it or
• 2:45
  does that? Can it happen?
• 2:46
  Because that's a tail wag in the dog, because Bitcoin is in here,
• 2:49
  Yeah, But by definition, Bitcoin has been volatile.
• 2:52
  Do you think options really could lessen the volatility of
• 2:55
  the underlying asset? I mean, that's what some
• 2:57
  analysts are saying, especially as you build out a more robust
• 3:00
  market infrastructure around this, you bring in more
• 3:02
  institutional money. And what I will say in terms of
• 3:04
  like building out what you can do with these spot crypto
• 3:07
  products, you've got Grayscale updating its prospectus just
• 3:10
  this week to do a covered call ETF for bitcoins.
• 3:13
  You're seeing that those are the products that these issuers are
• 3:16
  you're indexing toward rather than having to, you know, spot
• 3:19
  funds around all of these altcoins.
• 3:21
  Because you just mentioned 80% of the volume is in calls, so
• 3:24
  that must mean they're rich premiums and the calls you could
• 3:27
  sell those and if it doesn't hit it, you just keep that the
• 3:31
  premium. Exactly.
• 3:32
  Yeah, and it protects your downside if it goes down a
• 3:35
  little. Thank you for coming in.
• 3:38
  Of course, guys, I'm here with our fearless leader Nico in the
• 3:42
  Co host seat. But let's break down some of
• 3:44
  these numbers. So you got Eric Balkunis, of
• 3:46
  course, senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg kind of running down
• 3:50
  some of the numbers and I will break down an article kind of
• 3:52
  give you guys a little more context.
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  Here's his tweet. A few 100 million so far in
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  options volumes on I bit a ton for day one and you can see
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  here's a rank of the contract by volume.
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  It's almost all calls seems very bullish, especially the December
• 4:06
  20th C100 which is basically betting price of BTC will double
• 4:11
  in the next month. Now let's breakdown this coin
• 4:14
  desk article about the Bitcoin ETF options titled Bitcoin ETF
• 4:17
  options introduction marks milestone Despite position
• 4:21
  limits, Blackrock's I Bit was the first US spot Bitcoin ETF to
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  launch with options tied to it. The rest of the pack comes later
• 4:28
  Wednesday. Now breaking down some of this
• 4:30
  article, the I Bit option surpassed $2 billion in notional
• 4:33
  exposure and the launch of options on Bitcoin ETFs had the
• 4:37
  approval of just 25,000 contracts as a position limit.
• 4:40
  So another Bitcoin link product, another success story.
• 4:44
  This time it's options tied to black rocks iShares Bitcoin
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  trust, AKA the I bit, which went live on NASDAQ Tuesday of last
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  week, giving them a one day head start over some competitors,
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  which began trading the next day.
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  Now I bit, which has a market cap of 44 billion, saw over $2
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  billion in options trading in notional value.
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  The ETF itself traded over $4 billion in volume, surpassed
• 5:07
  only by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust AKA the SPY and then
• 5:13
  Invesco QQQ trust Series 1 and the iShares Russell 200 ETFIWM,
• 5:19
  which all have much higher market caps according to coin
• 5:22
  glass data. So you know these big ETFs, they
• 5:25
  have good numbers, but for the size of Bitcoin, the I bid
• 5:27
  options and even the ETF in general is just breaking records
• 5:31
  as we saw in the first sentence. You know another Bitcoin link
• 5:34
  product, another success story. So breaking this article down a
• 5:37
  little more, seeing senior Bloomberg ETF analysis or
• 5:41
  analyst Eric Bukunis hailed the success of day one performance
• 5:44
  of the Ibid options. However, it hasn't challenged
• 5:47
  the top ETFs yet, but he expects that to come in the next few
• 5:50
  days or weeks. And here's a quote. 1.9 billion
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  is unheard of for day one. For context, BITO did 363
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  million and that's been around for four years.
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  Also, this is with 25,000 contract position limits.
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  That said, 1.9 billion isn't quite a big dog level yet,
• 6:08
  though. Gold did 5 billion today, but
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  give it a few more days and weeks, Balkuna says.
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  And the interesting parts of Balkuna's statement is that the
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  position limit size in IBAP and other Bitcoin ETF options is
• 6:19
  tighter than those in traditional finance.
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  They have been approved for just 25,000 contracts, meaning that a
• 6:24
  market participant can only hold or control a maximum of 25,000
• 6:29
  contracts at a given point. Now the article kind of breaks
• 6:32
  down going further, I'm not going to read the whole thing,
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  but essentially the Bitcoin ETF I bid options, it's still being
• 6:39
  limited and throttled by the traditional financial system,
• 6:42
  which is kind of the story we've been hearing all year in regards
• 6:45
  to Bitcoin. Yes, they're allowing Bitcoin to
• 6:47
  get through the door, but they're still kind of putting
• 6:50
  guardrails on the Bitcoin products.
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  And and even with all that said, it's still absolutely going
• 6:56
  nuclear. Anyways, one last quote here,
• 6:59
  and this is from what's this, Jeff Park and he goes, it's
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  clear to me that the CME Group would prefer Bitcoin to trade
• 7:07
  primarily as futures, positioning itself as a dominant
• 7:10
  market with launches like BFF Bitcoin Friday's futures.
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  And if the CFTC had been as politicized as the SEC, we might
• 7:19
  not have had a fair launch at all, which is very interesting
• 7:23
  considering that we now know Gary Gensler is resigning,
• 7:25
  resigning a January 20, 2025. All right now let's go into a
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  little more data. Shout out the Joe Consortia on
• 7:31
  Twitter and he goes the Ibid options day one.
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  So far, the December 20th 2024 expiry is seeing its highest
• 7:38
  volume in $65 strike calls with Ibid trading at 52.76 dollars.
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  Going to 65 reflects a spot Bitcoin price of $114,339.
• 7:50
  The TLDR The market is bullish that Bitcoin's price ends the
• 7:54
  year well over 100K. Now moving forward a little bit,
• 7:58
  this is where it starts getting crazy.
• 7:59
  We have Joe McCain on Twitter and he goes the I bit $100
• 8:03
  strikes continue to trade crazy volume with super high open
• 8:07
  interest. For these options to be in the
• 8:09
  money, Bitcoin must trade around $180,000 by December 20th, 2024.
• 8:17
  Could we see an 100% increase by the end of this year?
• 8:21
  Roughly what, 29 days, 30 days a month from now?
• 8:26
  That would be insane. Now, I did open the show with
• 8:30
  this one quadrillion dollar derivatives market meme and and
• 8:34
  this is kind of, you know, people debate this a little bit,
• 8:37
  but as you can see, I, I use perplexity again here guys.
• 8:40
  You know, the derivatives market is one of the largest financial
• 8:42
  markets in the world, characterized by a tremendous
• 8:44
  size and complexity. The notional value of the
• 8:47
  derivatives market is often cited as exceeding 1 quadrillion
• 8:51
  dollars. So obviously all that money
• 8:54
  isn't going to flow to Bitcoin. But you heard it right.
• 8:57
  Basically, one quadrillion dollars is now being opened up
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  and potentially going to go into Bitcoin.
• 9:04
  And the extremely bullish nature of this is the traders out there
• 9:08
  are looking at Bitcoin like we all look at it and they're like
• 9:11
  the end of the year is going to be crazy.
• 9:13
  Now are we going to see 180 K by the end of the year?
• 9:17
  Who knows. All we know, at least from the
• 9:20
  trading sentiment, is that everyone is expecting bitcoins
• 9:24
  going to be above 100K by the end of the year, which on
• 9:28
  today's price isn't that crazy. It's only three K Yes, 100K is a
• 9:32
  psychological number here, but it does seem like the end of the
• 9:36
  year, you know, Christmas holiday season.
• 9:39
  We might be seeing a lot of bullish movement in the Bitcoin
• 9:43
  price, which is going to set up an extremely bullish 2025.
• 9:48
  And who knows, we might not just get one year of of, you know,
• 9:52
  the last leg up of the bull run. It could be a little longer and
• 9:56
  we're going to break that down in the numbers later.
• 9:58
  But anyways, Nico, are you surprised that Wall Street, you
• 10:02
  know, trad fight is this bullish on Bitcoin?
• 10:04
  Obviously options is a is a rabbit hole.
• 10:07
  It is a little confusing for most of us 65 IQ Bitcoiners, but
• 10:11
  man does it surprise you how bullish they are on Bitcoin.
• 10:15
  No, not at all, man. I think like really Michael
• 10:18
  Saylor is pioneering right now and he's essentially proving to
• 10:22
  the world that he has found a glitch in the Fiat matrix and
• 10:26
  he's leveraging that glitch to essentially buy, you know, an
• 10:31
  unlimited amount of Bitcoin And like, and his price, it's just
• 10:34
  like this like self fulfilling prophecy.
• 10:38
  And it's just his stock is just like tearing and it's just
• 10:42
  ripping to to to to new highs. And again, it's like a rinse and
• 10:47
  repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.
• 10:51
  And he might have found a glitch in this debt Fiat system that we
• 10:56
  live in. And a lot of people are
• 10:58
  speculating like, where is the top?
• 11:00
  Where could this be at? I mean, like if there if he
• 11:04
  truly did find a glitch in the system, like there is no top,
• 11:08
  you know? And I think I've, I've heard him
• 11:10
  say talk about this in the past before.
• 11:14
  We are in uncharted territory. That's what I'll say, but from a
• 11:19
  Bitcoin price perspective, can we hit 180 K by the end of the
• 11:23
  year? Absolutely.
• 11:25
  I think we can hit 180 K by January, by February, like
• 11:29
  easily just on people anticipating a pro crypto, pro
• 11:34
  Bitcoin administration going into the White House, you know,
• 11:38
  like yeah, for sure. Listen, like a lot of people
• 11:42
  were not expecting Bitcoin to. We were in the 60s and we were
• 11:45
  in purgatory. We were depressed.
• 11:47
  I don't know if you guys remember a month ago how you
• 11:49
  felt or two months ago and all of a sudden out of nowhere, even
• 11:53
  with Bitcoin at these crazy high numbers and the amount of
• 11:57
  capital it takes to move, we went from 60 to 99 in like a
• 12:05
  snap of a finger, right? So anything could happen.
• 12:09
  That's why the best strategy is stay humble, stack SAT, stay
• 12:12
  solvent, just acquire Bitcoin, think the long term and you're
• 12:16
  going to be fine, you know, but you know, this is this
• 12:19
  MicroStrategy story is not over. And what it's proved to Wall
• 12:23
  Street. Wall Street is like a bunch of
• 12:25
  hungry hyenas right now and they're like cold, you know,
• 12:29
  like, like this thing is awesome and they're trying to figure
• 12:32
  out, like they're trying to figure out, you know, should I
• 12:36
  buy MicroStrategy? Should I buy spot Bitcoin?
• 12:38
  Can we make I've seen stocks, you guys could see this too,
• 12:43
  where it's a volatility on on, it's a, it's a, it's a leverage
• 12:48
  volatility play on MicroStrategy.
• 12:50
  Name of the stock is MSTU and essentially it does double what
• 12:55
  MicroStrategy does. So if MicroStrategy goes down,
• 12:57
  it will go down double. If MicroStrategy goes up, it
• 13:00
  will go up double. Like it's so crazy.
• 13:02
  So, and this is what Opti was talking about.
• 13:04
  Like they can just come up with these freaking products out of
• 13:08
  nowhere and just like, you know, figure out how to like monetize
• 13:13
  Bitcoin in different ways. Now, I do want to emphasize this
• 13:17
  because this is simply Bitcoin at the end of the day.
• 13:20
  There's two things happening. There's two phenomenons, OK?
• 13:24
  And both of them could be true at the same time.
• 13:26
  And that's what I want everyone to keep in mind.
• 13:28
  And we just broke 2000 live viewers.
• 13:29
  So if you guys are enjoying the show, smash the like button.
• 13:32
  Help us break 100 likes within the 1st 20 minutes of the show.
• 13:36
  But this is what I'll say like Wall Street right now, like it's
• 13:41
  like they just discovered a brand new toy and they're just,
• 13:45
  they're going nut. They're like, Oh my God, this is
• 13:48
  crazy. This is nuts.
• 13:50
  Could that be bullish for the price from an investment
• 13:52
  perspective? Absolutely.
• 13:55
  But we have to remember why we're here.
• 13:57
  I actually thought about this for a long time last night.
• 14:00
  And it was because I saw like this chess grandmaster talk
• 14:05
  about Bitcoin and the implications of Bitcoin.
• 14:10
  And he's like these Bitcoin Bros, they just want to get
• 14:12
  rich. They just want to get money.
• 14:13
  But there's something underlying here that if it becomes
• 14:18
  possible, I don't think people understand what is about to
• 14:20
  happen. And that is the revolution,
• 14:24
  right? Bitcoin, the revolution,
• 14:25
  Bitcoin, the revolution only happens one way.
• 14:29
  And that is buying Bitcoin, earning Bitcoin, mining Bitcoin
• 14:32
  and putting that Bitcoin into self custody.
• 14:34
  If enough of us do it, we will effectuate change.
• 14:38
  So yes, number go up great, amazing, phenomenal.
• 14:43
  But we have to remember why we're here.
• 14:46
  We have to remember what we're fighting for and we have to
• 14:49
  remember what the end goal is because that's what's going to
• 14:51
  actually change the world and make the world a much better
• 14:54
  place. The separation of money and
• 14:55
  state and in the process of that, freeing the individual
• 15:00
  from this machine essentially that enslaves them.
• 15:04
  The way that I see it anyways, Opti freak.
• 15:07
  Shout out to Opti because I've been doing some stuff in the
• 15:11
  morning the last three days and he's been absolutely crushing it
• 15:15
  as a host with these opening monologues.
• 15:17
  So. Well, hey *** thank you.
• 15:19
  Appreciate it. But before you go on, before we
• 15:21
  we get the show going, you kind of reminded me of the meme of,
• 15:26
  you know, Bitcoin is the Trojan horse into Wall Street for
• 15:30
  freedom. We always talk about this.
• 15:32
  And it is very interesting that now they are very much getting
• 15:37
  engaged and they're loving Bitcoin.
• 15:38
  And like you said, it's like their new toy and they're
• 15:40
  they're obviously all looking for gains, though there is kind
• 15:44
  of a growing trend right now with a lot of bit corners.
• 15:47
  I don't know if it's because we're all contrarian.
• 15:49
  We're like, we still believe that Bitcoin is a Trojan horse
• 15:52
  into Wall Street for freedom. But if you know, part of me also
• 15:55
  is starting to feel like maybe Wall Street being the Trojan
• 15:58
  horse into Bitcoin is not all the good things that we think it
• 16:02
  will be. And I think this is where the
• 16:04
  battle is and it's what you just said.
• 16:05
  You know, we're obviously we all love to see number go up, but
• 16:09
  the real important aspect here is freedom go up.
• 16:11
  And I think that's why it's very important for every single one
• 16:13
  of us to stay vigilant, make sure that we are taking Bitcoin
• 16:16
  into custody, make sure you're securing your own Bitcoin.
• 16:19
  And obviously, if you don't have money in the traditional
• 16:22
  financial system, then you don't just want Bitcoin exposure
• 16:25
  through these ETFs and options. But it is going to show that
• 16:29
  there is a lot of interest in Bitcoin.
• 16:31
  And as Eric Balkunis was saying, you know, these numbers are only
• 16:34
  going to grow, which means a lot of that Wall Street money is
• 16:37
  going to get unlocked and it's going to come into Bitcoin.
• 16:40
  They're going to pump it up. But it's, it's, I think more
• 16:43
  important than ever for every single one of us to stay
• 16:45
  vigilant. Make sure you're taking your
• 16:47
  coins into custody. If you have cold storage
• 16:50
  Bitcoin, they can't take that from you.
• 16:52
  That is where the real freedom money aspects come from.
• 16:55
  So I think it's very important to kind of remember this as we
• 16:58
  continue to move forward and progress and mature as an
• 17:02
  industry. And Wall Street obviously wants
• 17:04
  those Bitcoin games because it's the best performing thing,
• 17:07
  period. We've been seeing this
• 17:08
  constantly this year and now it's it's becoming truer and
• 17:13
  truer as the years go on. So 2025 is going to be very
• 17:16
  interesting. Anyways, Nico hit the ad.
• 17:20
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  you're not able to pass it to them because for some, whatever
• 20:49
  reason, you wrote down your seed where it's on paper.
• 20:51
  That's going to be a terrible conversation.
• 20:53
  Don't put yourself in that situation, which is why you
• 20:55
  should head over to stampseed.com today.
• 20:57
  Use promo code. Simply get 15% off and stamp
• 20:59
  your seed into titanium. It's it's a really good idea, I
• 21:03
  promise you. Scan the QR code or check the
• 21:05
  link in the video description. Yeah, sorry guys, I'm I'm
• 21:10
  attacking all the bots in our Twitter video.
• 21:12
  So if you're watching in Twitter and you're you're going to
• 21:16
  comment fight back against the boss anyways.
• 21:19
  Anyways, I'm over here on Clarks movies dashboard and of course
• 21:23
  wow. The Bitcoin price is currently
• 21:25
  at 95,000 and $30. Very interesting.
• 21:29
  I know everyone was watching hopefully that we'd get that
• 21:31
  100K over the weekend, but it looks like we got a little dip
• 21:35
  and a little correction. Healthy dip and healthy
• 21:37
  correction. Anyways, the sets per dollar,
• 21:39
  AKA how much Bitcoin you can buy for a single dollar, AKA how
• 21:42
  much the dollar is worth in Bitcoin is currently at 1052
• 21:45
  sets per dollar. The current block height is
• 21:47
  871,942. The market cap in Fiat terms in
• 21:52
  dollar terms is $1.88 trillion. We're going to break that 2
• 21:56
  trillion soon guys, maybe by the end of the week.
• 21:58
  And the Bitcoin versus gold market cap is at 10.17%.
• 22:03
  Only 10% of the the hard money game has been secured by
• 22:07
  Bitcoin. It is going to 100 soon enough
• 22:09
  and the total money supply, the total percentage ever issued for
• 22:12
  Bitcoin is currently at 94.22%, which means 19,000,780 seven
• 22:18
  102.36 Bitcoin are currently circulating All right guys now I
• 22:23
  mentioned this in the beginning, this great clip coming out from
• 22:26
  Tour de Meester and our boy Marty bent over at TTFTC.
• 22:30
  This is what I've been saying you know I I've been kind of
• 22:34
  joking about it on the show that maybe you know maybe the cycle
• 22:38
  theory is kind of running its last course.
• 22:41
  I think we will still see cycles the next four years, but the way
• 22:45
  Tour breaks this down, it just goes to show that this next year
• 22:50
  might be a little crazier than we think it is.
• 22:52
  And it could be a prolonged bull bull market, prolonged last leg
• 22:57
  of the bull market. And, and this is going in.
• 23:00
  I could have probably put this as a title because Tour says
• 23:03
  within the span of two years, Bitcoin could hit $1 million.
• 23:07
  Now, before you call us crazy and hopped up on opium, let's
• 23:11
  hear how Tour explains this for you guys and how he's seeing
• 23:15
  that maybe this cycle isn't going to play out like the 2021
• 23:19
  cycle. It might not even play out like
• 23:21
  the 2017 cycle. This time might be different and
• 23:24
  we might be going all the way back to a 2013 S Bull Run.
• 23:28
  So let's listen to this. So anyway long.
• 23:31
  Sorry, what's going on over here?
• 23:33
  You're playing it. I can hear it.
• 23:34
  Oh. You hear it all right?
• 23:35
  It's coming through my computer. So it's short to just say that.
• 23:39
  OK, OK. Yeah, I don't know what's going
• 23:40
  on. Let me, let me change.
• 23:41
  Send me the link, I got it. I got it.
• 23:43
  Hold on. So anyway, Long story short, to
• 23:46
  just say that, you know, rather than predicting how high it's
• 23:51
  going to go, I, I, I want to say maybe there's, you know,
• 23:56
  psychological fuel in the tank for like a two year, like real
• 23:59
  bull market. And, and then the fact that
• 24:02
  we're starting with such a big push right now in the beginning
• 24:07
  makes me very, very bullish. It reminds me of like 2013 where
• 24:10
  like people thought like, oh damn.
• 24:12
  Like it's going like we were to like 10 bucks in 2012.
• 24:17
  And then we went to like 30, which was the previous all time
• 24:19
  high. And then it just like zoomed
• 24:21
  past that and we went to, I believe 1400, right?
• 24:25
  Actually, no, we went to 270 in the spring of 2013.
• 24:29
  Oh my God. And then it declined.
• 24:31
  It went down to 80 bucks and people thought it was over and
• 24:35
  then that in a span of just a few months, we just went back on
• 24:40
  the horse and by the end of the year 2013, we were at 1200
• 24:43
  bucks. So like from 11:50 hundred a
• 24:46
  hundred X in two years time, you know, So the fact that we we had
• 24:52
  we we have so much going on right now, it makes me very
• 24:56
  bullish. And it's so it makes me think
• 24:58
  like maybe this could be one of those two legged, like there's
• 25:01
  gonna be a big fake out and then we just keep steaming forwards.
• 25:04
  Yeah. And so all within a span of two
• 25:06
  years. Yeah, we could, we could have a
• 25:07
  oh man, it's like, it's weird to say, but it's, it's almost like
• 25:12
  only a 10X from here, really. Wait, wait, let me, let me show
• 25:16
  the chart. Let me show the the old chart
• 25:18
  here so people can visualize now.
• 25:19
  Now you go, Nico, go. No, no, no, I this is great.
• 25:22
  I'm so glad you played this because this is like Monday
• 25:25
  morning. Hopey Monday for bullishness to
• 25:28
  the to the vein. OK, I've been telling you, OK,
• 25:31
  So what you guys are seeing for anyone who's not familiar, like
• 25:34
  those are the cycles and and terms of return, right?
• 25:37
  So obviously the first cycle, what TUR was describing full 452
• 25:42
  X, then the second title. The second cycle was 2017 did
• 25:46
  100 X. Then the third cycle which was
• 25:49
  2021 did a 20X. Now I have a theory about the
• 25:52
  third cycle and I'm going to keep reiterating that effing
• 25:55
  theory. I think it was cut short.
• 25:58
  I know Chuck Matey disagrees with me on this but I'm sticking
• 26:01
  to my guns. I think it was cut short by the
• 26:04
  China ban and the cell pressure from those miners that needed to
• 26:09
  sell Bitcoin to relocate to a more favorable jurisdiction.
• 26:12
  I think it was an attack on the Bitcoin price by the CCP.
• 26:16
  I do not think it was a coincidence.
• 26:19
  Call me a conspiracy theory, call me whatever, and then you
• 26:21
  can sprinkle in the FTX debacle that happened.
• 26:25
  Now what has that caused? Bitcoin does the exact opposite
• 26:30
  of what everyone thinks and what I saw in the 2021 cycle was
• 26:36
  everyone thought everyone and their mother thought this thing
• 26:39
  was going to hit 100K guaranteed back in 2021 mind you and the
• 26:44
  the, the whole Plan B and the you know the whole thing right
• 26:47
  the whole 9 yards it didn't do it and we went back to 16
• 26:52
  everyone got surprised everyone was let down It was it was a big
• 26:56
  let down of expectations. So what I'm seeing this cycle is
• 27:01
  the common theme that you get on Bitcoin Twitter is the
• 27:05
  expectation that Bitcoin is going to hit 100 to 200 K
• 27:09
  That's. It when everyone in the room.
• 27:13
  Is telling you what Bitcoin is going to do.
• 27:16
  Bitcoin does the opposite. Now that can mean to the
• 27:20
  downside and that can mean to the upside.
• 27:24
  Technically, we could have hit the all time high and we could
• 27:28
  be heading into a bear market and it would make sense because
• 27:32
  no one is expecting it. Bitcoin does the opposite of
• 27:36
  when everyone what everyone expects.
• 27:39
  So what I personally believe, and I've been seeing this
• 27:43
  pattern over like the, the, the entire year.
• 27:46
  And The thing is we don't remember what this feels like
• 27:50
  anymore. This has been a long time.
• 27:52
  So I'm class of 2016. I remember the 20X20X in one
• 27:58
  year that happened in 2017. A lot of you guys were minted
• 28:01
  that year, right? You guys became bitcoiners.
• 28:03
  That was your class. And I remember that year, like
• 28:06
  it was like yesterday was gnarly, right?
• 28:09
  In 2021, we didn't get that. And everyone was like chasing
• 28:15
  the dragon of 2017. Like they thought they were
• 28:17
  going to get that same, you know, kick, but they never got
• 28:21
  it. So, you know, we're heading into
• 28:25
  2025. The stars and planets Political
• 28:29
  situation, Regulatory situation wall.
• 28:33
  Street. Situation.
• 28:34
  Nation state situation. It's all effing aligned.
• 28:38
  It's all aligned. But we all forgot what a a a RIP
• 28:44
  feels like, Like we've had little baby rips, but we all
• 28:48
  forget what a 2017 waka feels like.
• 28:53
  And the problem is that when you when you forget what that feels
• 28:56
  like, you're like, I'm going to sell at 200, I'm going to sell
• 29:00
  at 150. I'm smart as shit and I'm going
• 29:03
  to buy when this bad boy goes down to 70 because I'm a genius
• 29:08
  and this thing just goes rips to 500, leaves you in the dirt and
• 29:11
  you're like, Oh my God, why did I do that?
• 29:14
  That is what Bitcoin does, right?
• 29:16
  And like, if everyone thought they were smart as shit trading
• 29:19
  this thing, you know, everyone would have a lot more Bitcoin
• 29:21
  than they do. It's it's incredibly hard to
• 29:24
  predict where this thing goes, but I will tell you I'm not I'm
• 29:29
  not an OG like turt. I haven't been here since 2013.
• 29:32
  My class was 2016, but I see the signs he sees.
• 29:37
  I see the same thing. And you know, a lot of people
• 29:40
  were saying, Nico, the bull market, it's cancelled, it's
• 29:44
  over. You know, when we were in the
• 29:46
  60K region, I'm like, no, we're going to hit you guys could go
• 29:49
  back and check the shows. I'm like, we're going to hit
• 29:50
  100K by the end of the year. I was like very confident in
• 29:53
  that and we're on the cusp of that now.
• 29:56
  What you're going to try to tell me, sit across the room, right?
• 29:59
  And just like use common sense, right?
• 30:01
  Because Bitcoin has not broken from its from its previous cycle
• 30:05
  patterns, right? You're going to look at me
• 30:08
  straight in the eye and you're going to be like Nico, Bitcoin
• 30:12
  breaks 100K in 2024. So the year before the halving,
• 30:17
  right? And the year of the Parabola,
• 30:20
  which was the year after the halving, which historically has
• 30:23
  always been the most explosive in Bitcoin's history.
• 30:26
  We're only going to two. XI, don't believe you.
• 30:31
  I just don't believe you. Now, am I going to trade on this
• 30:34
  information? Probably not.
• 30:36
  Am I going to do anything off this information?
• 30:38
  No. Is this speculation 100%?
• 30:41
  But I'm telling you what my gut feels like I'm, I'm see what TUR
• 30:45
  is saying is not that crazy because it's true.
• 30:48
  It's only a 10X now it's it's a crazy 10X.
• 30:52
  You know like $1,000,000 Bitcoin.
• 30:54
  We're at 100K. You're like Nico, it's all going
• 30:56
  to happen next year, bro, what the fuck?
• 30:59
  And I'm not saying that it will, but I'm telling you I I would be
• 31:04
  it would be disappointing for me if Bitcoin only hit 150K next
• 31:09
  year. From where we are right now,
• 31:11
  we're at 95,000 if all of next year 365 days of.
• 31:16
  Trump's first. Year in office micro strategy
• 31:19
  proving the Bitcoin strategy, giving a middle finger to all
• 31:23
  the other traditional, you know, wealth manager people.
• 31:27
  And then on the nation state level, you have Naimbu Kelly
• 31:29
  just again giving the middle finger to the IMF saying ha ha,
• 31:32
  I told you so. And now you're going to look at
• 31:34
  me straight in the face. You're going to say, Nico, we're
• 31:37
  only going to 150. I like I'm sorry, you know, and
• 31:43
  again, it's unbelievable because we forget what this feeling is
• 31:46
  like. We haven't felt this in Bitcoin
• 31:48
  in a really long time. Last time we paid our dues, we
• 31:52
  survived 2017. We survived 28.
• 31:55
  No 17 was a party. We survived 2018.
• 31:57
  We survived 2019-2020. We're like, Oh my God.
• 32:00
  It's like, you think you're like, OK, it's over.
• 32:03
  I need, I probably need a good job.
• 32:04
  And then wack at that. But it wasn't a wack at that.
• 32:07
  It was like a wacky, you know, it was like, it was tiny.
• 32:10
  It was like a little like, you know, thank you for huddling,
• 32:14
  but the party's starting. It's 2:00 AM.
• 32:17
  Vibes are cooling. But you know, just they close
• 32:20
  the party up too early. That's what 2021 felt like.
• 32:23
  So we don't know this feeling from a Bitcoiners perspective.
• 32:27
  We haven't felt this in a very long time.
• 32:30
  And I think that's why, you know, this upcoming thing, if
• 32:36
  Bitcoin follows its historical patterns, could be potentially
• 32:39
  bullish. And I, I could be.
• 32:41
  Reading the tea leaves. Here it could be totally wrong
• 32:44
  and this is speculation. And don't trade on it, just stay
• 32:47
  humblestax ads. But I'm telling you opti dude,
• 32:50
  am I crazy? Am I the only one feeling this
• 32:53
  way or seeing this? Well, I mean, I've been saying
• 32:56
  it before we had all of this crazy stuff play out this year.
• 32:59
  I was saying in the beginning of the year, I forget when you guys
• 33:02
  can Fact Check me, but I feel like ever since April or March,
• 33:06
  I've been saying like 300K seems to be in play.
• 33:08
  And even if you believe in the diminishing returns theory,
• 33:11
  which is obviously bigger number means it Bitcoin price isn't
• 33:15
  going to go as high as it can if we even play that out.
• 33:18
  And you look at this chart here and let me pull it up one more
• 33:20
  time for you guys. You can see that even on
• 33:24
  diminishing return standard, if we did a 10X from here, you
• 33:27
  know, that's a 16X in a whole bull cycle.
• 33:31
  That's less than the last cycle, but that still means, you know,
• 33:33
  $1,000,000 Bitcoin. So even if we're only going to
• 33:37
  do a 10X throughout this whole cycle, that's four more XS from
• 33:41
  here, which is, you know, a roughly around $400,000.
• 33:45
  So I know we're entering in two big numbers here.
• 33:48
  And Niko, I have the same feeling as you.
• 33:50
  It really feels like we all have PTSD, especially us in the chat,
• 33:55
  you know, but like the big institutional managers, I saw a
• 33:58
  Vanek report this morning saying like 180 K.
• 34:01
  Is there like target right now and it just it doesn't feel like
• 34:05
  Bitcoin's going to do only a 50% increase or 80% increase on the
• 34:10
  last leg of the bull run where historically Bitcoin does what
• 34:15
  what's the numbers that Sailor always says?
• 34:16
  It's like 40% APR every year. So this is and this is the part
• 34:21
  of the cycle where Bitcoin runs and does the suddenly moment.
• 34:25
  So I don't know, I'm with you. I think 50% increase by the next
• 34:29
  year, which is like the last leg of the bull run that seems more
• 34:33
  unlike then say you know some crazy number move from here and
• 34:38
  even if you believe in diminishing returns mean that's
• 34:41
  still. No.
• 34:43
  It's real obviously, but I I still but shouts out to Marty
• 34:47
  Bent, you know, pod comp approved Marty Bent here for
• 34:50
  saying that this time is different.
• 34:52
  I'm I'm talking to a lot of bitcoiners and we're all kind of
• 34:55
  having the same idea like this time does feel different.
• 34:58
  Yes, Bitcoiners say it forever, but this time is actually
• 35:01
  different because of, you know, president residential
• 35:04
  candidates, the US strategic Bitcoin reserves, you have the
• 35:07
  ETF and option market. Now you're having.
• 35:11
  You were here. You were here.
• 35:13
  You were here for 2017. Sorry.
• 35:15
  I know you. Were here for 2017.
• 35:17
  Remember the cope different that we told ourselves in 2018.
• 35:21
  You remember one of the excuses it was the institutions are
• 35:23
  here. Oh yeah, now they're here.
• 35:25
  The. Institutions are here.
• 35:26
  We would say. That in 2018, while the price of
• 35:28
  Bitcoin was like falling like 20 Ki think it bottomed out like
• 35:32
  3500, whatever, it was like dark, right?
• 35:35
  Like your emotions are on into it seeing your net worth just
• 35:37
  evaporate like that. It was it was terrible right,
• 35:40
  But one of the coping mechanisms was the institutions are here,
• 35:44
  bro. The institutions are here.
• 35:46
  No, they weren't. They took a couple more years to
• 35:50
  get there, but The thing is they're here now, right?
• 35:53
  The ETF was approved in January. I think we're only up like 100%
• 35:57
  this year, like 120%. I know, like, that sounds like a
• 36:00
  lot. Wall Street, you're like Nico,
• 36:01
  that's just fuck down. What are you talking about?
• 36:03
  But in Bitcoin terms, that's really not a lot, right?
• 36:07
  Yeah, yeah. What Higher calling said only 10
• 36:10
  eggs. Welcome to Bitcoin.
• 36:12
  It's so true. It's so true.
• 36:13
  All right, everybody, let's get to the news.
• 36:15
  We have lots to talk about. Let's check it out.
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  It's awesome. And if you use promo code
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  simply, you'll get a discount. You won't get Opti, but you will
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  get a discount anyways. Everybody at the right.
• 38:41
  Price you could get me. That's a joke, YouTube.
• 38:46
  Yeah, OK, OK, All right, Enough trolling.
• 38:48
  Enough trolling. I I forget I can't troll here.
• 38:51
  All right. Anyways guys.
• 38:54
  I. Apologize, I apologize upfront.
• 38:57
  We are talking politics in the news.
• 38:59
  I think this is I know, I know, I know.
• 39:03
  Yeah, well, it almost is. It almost is and and and moving
• 39:07
  forward we'll be we'll probably more be more critical if if they
• 39:11
  don't do a lot of stuff that is bitcoiners like.
• 39:13
  But we do have a little update here for those that aren't
• 39:17
  following American politics as as closely as we are.
• 39:21
  Obviously, we've been covering the last couple of weeks.
• 39:23
  Dennis Porter is out there talking about state adoption of
• 39:26
  Bitcoin. We have Cynthia, Cynthia Lum is
• 39:28
  talking about the federal adoption of Bitcoin as a
• 39:30
  strategic reserve stockpile. Well, we finally got the Trump
• 39:35
  Treasury Secretary pick and you can see here from CNN, obviously
• 39:38
  they're a little biased here, but it says Trump names
• 39:40
  billionaire Scott Besson as Treasury Secretary pick.
• 39:44
  Now, what does this have to do with Bitcoin?
• 39:47
  Well, let's just play a little clip of him and what he thinks
• 39:50
  about Bitcoin. And we'll kind of breakdown what
• 39:53
  what he said and whether he maybe or maybe doesn't
• 39:56
  understand Bitcoin as much as we do.
• 39:58
  But that's besides the point. Let's listen to this.
• 40:00
  I, I, I've been excited about the president's embrace of
• 40:05
  crypto and I think it fits very well with the Republican Party.
• 40:10
  The ethos of Wow, it's crypto is about freedom and.
• 40:15
  That's so crazy. The crypto economy is here to
• 40:18
  stay. The Democrats are running from
• 40:21
  it because they're trying to wash off the stench of Sam
• 40:24
  Bankman freed and you know, his family's donations to the
• 40:30
  Democratic Party. So you know they're willing to
• 40:32
  take down a whole industry because of bad behavior on their
• 40:36
  part. Bad behavior 1 actor.
• 40:39
  And, you know, I, I think that everything's on the table with,
• 40:44
  with Bitcoin. And to me, one of the most
• 40:47
  exciting things about Bitcoin is for a generation of investors
• 40:53
  who maybe post the great financial crisis have been
• 40:59
  looking for investment opportunities or maybe they've
• 41:02
  soured on markets. Crypto is bringing in young
• 41:06
  people. It's bringing in the people who
• 41:09
  haven't participated in markets. And, you know, having a market
• 41:13
  culture in the US and people believing the markets work for
• 41:18
  them is a centerpiece of capitalism.
• 41:21
  So it looks like we traded, you know, Treasury Secretary Janet
• 41:25
  Yellen for Scott Bessett. And hey, personally, it seems
• 41:28
  like he was struggling to get through that a little bit.
• 41:30
  And you know, like, I know, I know, and I know.
• 41:33
  And then like moving forward, moving forward, you know, there
• 41:36
  has been some skepticism. First of all, is Parker Lewis,
• 41:39
  he's here and he's like this guy doesn't understand anything
• 41:42
  about Bitcoin. Like how do you make him head of
• 41:44
  the Treasury of Secretary for 2024-2025?
• 41:47
  And of course, doesn't understand Bitcoin, kind of like
• 41:50
  that take, obviously. And then here is Max Keiser,
• 41:53
  which is basically the only job the Treasury Secretary has to
• 41:57
  get is, is to get out of the way of Bitcoin.
• 42:00
  And based on that clip, it seems like maybe we've upgraded our
• 42:04
  Treasury Secretary, of course, from Janet Yellen, who
• 42:07
  historically has been very bad in regards to Bitcoin, to this
• 42:10
  guy who has at least publicly being favorable in regards to
• 42:14
  Bitcoin. Of course, saying Bitcoin is
• 42:15
  freedom. Basically, it's a new economic
• 42:18
  opportunity for the younger generations.
• 42:20
  You know that Bitcoin and his freedom and as his quote was,
• 42:24
  everything is on the table for Bitcoin.
• 42:26
  So we'll see exactly how this plays out.
• 42:28
  Whether Parker Lewis is right. You know, this guy doesn't
• 42:31
  understand Bitcoin. You could argue that maybe Trump
• 42:34
  doesn't fully understand Bitcoin, but as long as they're
• 42:36
  talking favorably about Bitcoin, I think this is good.
• 42:39
  Now I think the number is up to, I forget what it is, like 10 or
• 42:43
  11 Bitcoiners in the Trump cabinet being pro Bitcoin, which
• 42:47
  is now further, you know, further data points that this is
• 42:51
  the most favorable Bitcoin president we've ever had.
• 42:54
  You know, love him or hate him, he is a divisive figure.
• 42:56
  But it seems like Bitcoin is going to have a lot of running
• 43:00
  room for 2025 or the next four years rather in the Trump
• 43:04
  administration. So it seems like we got a pro
• 43:08
  Bitcoin secretary of Treasury, which is obviously bullish for
• 43:11
  Bitcoin as the price there. There's definitely concerns of
• 43:15
  kind of what I said in the beginning of like, you know,
• 43:17
  Wall Street trying to Co-op Bitcoin.
• 43:18
  It's not just about number go up, it's about freedom go up,
• 43:21
  but it looks like we are going to have favorable legislation in
• 43:25
  regards to Bitcoin. Now, I do kind of have, you
• 43:28
  know, a personal caveat here about Scott Besson because he
• 43:32
  is. Listen, I'll just put it this
• 43:35
  way. I'll put it nicely.
• 43:36
  You guys could do your research on it, but some of his friends
• 43:39
  and his historical connections aren't the best.
• 43:45
  Well, he is basically George Soros's prodigy and was a part
• 43:50
  of the a part of the the sterling crown.
• 43:54
  You know, the the shorting of the of the pound.
• 43:56
  Yeah, it's completely, completely true.
• 43:58
  So there is some trade-offs and caveats here.
• 44:01
  Wait, wait, hold on. You have to be when you make
• 44:03
  that sort of claim. Dude, you talk, you talk and
• 44:06
  I'll pull it up. OK, so he he's connected to some
• 44:10
  sketchy thing about shorting the pound, right?
• 44:12
  Yes, Sir. OK.
• 44:15
  OK. So he's not perfect.
• 44:17
  Is he an improvement than where we are right now?
• 44:21
  100% OK, so here you go Served as CIO at Soros fund management
• 44:27
  partner with George Soros you know, driving force behind Soros
• 44:31
  1992 shorting of the British pound.
• 44:33
  So hey, you know, he's a, he's a Wall Street guy, but you know,
• 44:40
  it, it'd be a, it'd be a missed opportunity if we can talk
• 44:42
  about. But hey, his Bitcoin position is
• 44:45
  very favorable and it sounds a lot better than what we're
• 44:48
  hearing from Janet Yellen. So only time will tell, Nico.
• 44:51
  But anyways, now that you have all the information, Nico,
• 44:54
  what's your thoughts on this? First of all, we're at 191.
• 44:57
  Like guys, if you guys are enjoying the show, make sure to
• 45:00
  smash that like button. It really, really helps with the
• 45:02
  algos and pushes this content forward.
• 45:08
  I mean, dude, like this current administration, they, I don't
• 45:11
  think it's about Sam SBFI think they're ideologically opposed.
• 45:16
  I think that they want a CBDCI think Bitcoin is, is a
• 45:20
  competition to a CBDC. So you know, they want to create
• 45:24
  kind of like this monopoly environment where that CBDC can
• 45:27
  thrive. Because if people have a choice
• 45:30
  between Bitcoin and ACBDCI think Al Rhodes lead to Bitcoin, it's
• 45:34
  just better, just better money. It's inevitable.
• 45:37
  So they kind of have to coerce people into a continuation of
• 45:41
  their system. Now, again, the caveat here,
• 45:46
  right, fundamentally, these are all politicians going into
• 45:50
  government and Bitcoin, in my opinion, if you let it do its
• 45:56
  thing, it not it like not in a forceful manner.
• 46:02
  It just makes government smaller because it kind of limits the
• 46:06
  ability for government to print money the way they see fit and
• 46:11
  the way they they the print money is how they pay for
• 46:14
  things. Essentially, you know, and
• 46:15
  they'll they'll dress it up and they'll say deficit spending and
• 46:18
  you know, blah, blah, blah. And you know, the debt and like,
• 46:21
  whatever, it's a Elon simplified it when he was doing all his
• 46:25
  like tours for the Trump campaign, but he was like,
• 46:28
  basically like, look, inflation is a tax.
• 46:31
  Like like when they, when they print money, that's a tax.
• 46:34
  Like essentially, it's not a direct tax, not income tax, but
• 46:37
  it's a tax and it's a tax to pay for government spending.
• 46:41
  So you know, like we've, we've all seen the meme, right?
• 46:45
  No matter whether it's red or blue, they both do the same
• 46:49
  thing. They just, they print money and
• 46:51
  they deficit spend and blah, blah, blah.
• 46:54
  So, you know, now that we have Bitcoin kind of coming in, you
• 46:58
  know, are bitcoins incentives? That's the key.
• 47:03
  Like that's the key thing here. Are bitcoins incentives greater
• 47:09
  than the incentives provided by the Fiat money printer, full
• 47:14
  stop? I think that's the question.
• 47:17
  Are bitcoins incentives greater? I think, yes, I think it's not
• 47:23
  going to be perfect. I don't want the last thing I
• 47:26
  want is people to have all these high expectations to be like
• 47:29
  orange Man is going to pump this to them, even though he promised
• 47:32
  us that at the Bitcoin conference.
• 47:35
  He's I'm going to make you guys rich.
• 47:37
  That's what he said. Well, Nico, rhetorically
• 47:39
  speaking, Trump has pumped our bags just by being elected.
• 47:43
  Give. It to him, the Trump pump, you
• 47:46
  got to give it to him. I mean, we did pump from like 60
• 47:48
  to like almost 100. So I mean, he is kind of right.
• 47:55
  Yeah. I don't know.
• 47:56
  I don't know, dude. This is what I was saying in the
• 47:58
  beginning of the show, Opti. This is what we were we were
• 48:01
  talking about in the numbers. How could you not be bullish
• 48:05
  heading into next year? And you're going to tell me with
• 48:08
  all these people that are like going to get out of the way,
• 48:11
  they're even if they're not like 100% good, like they're
• 48:15
  definitely better than what we have right now, which is like
• 48:17
  open hostility, right, proposed mining taxes and like whatever.
• 48:23
  No, they're saying they made it part of their party platform to
• 48:26
  get the F out of the way and to support the industry.
• 48:29
  So even if they keep 25% of their promise, that's better
• 48:34
  than where we are right now. So, and they're all saying like,
• 48:37
  I like Bitcoin. So like they would have to like
• 48:40
  essentially do like 180° turn and be like, you know what?
• 48:44
  Actually, this Bitcoin thing is a scam.
• 48:47
  We don't like it anymore. Like I'm telling you, the reason
• 48:50
  that it's so unbelievable for most people to picture this is
• 48:54
  because they're scarred from what happened in 2021.
• 48:57
  Everyone is still kind of like, oh man, like, you know,
• 49:01
  diminishing return that that's the, that's the, isn't that the
• 49:04
  narrative this time around, Opti?
• 49:06
  It's like diminishing returns. Bitcoin is boring.
• 49:10
  It's over. It's this, it's that like that's
• 49:13
  the narrative this time. I feel it, bro.
• 49:15
  And I still think Bitcoin has so much life in it.
• 49:18
  It's Infinity divided by 21 million, right?
• 49:22
  And this thing's going to like, it's a black hole, like it's
• 49:25
  just going to swallow everything up because it's just, it's just
• 49:27
  a better store of value. It's as simple as that.
• 49:29
  I mean, Sailor has described it in so many different types of
• 49:33
  ways, but it's just a better, it's just better.
• 49:36
  It's a better store of value. Look, I was, I was like, I
• 49:39
  forget who I was talking to, talking to this about with, but
• 49:42
  like you're like a higher net worth individual.
• 49:45
  You have to play shenanigans to get a return.
• 49:47
  You have to get real real estate, you know, the S&P like
• 49:51
  an index fund and like, you know, good return, whatever six,
• 49:56
  8%. Are you really beating
• 49:57
  inflation? Like if you if you trust the
• 49:59
  numbers, you are. But are you right with Bitcoin,
• 50:04
  it's like you get a solid 2030% without paying fees, without
• 50:08
  having to rely on someone else, without someone else holding
• 50:11
  your money. I mean, it's just better.
• 50:14
  So, you know, and now that the US government could potentially
• 50:18
  going to buy some and then they're they're they're saying
• 50:20
  that they're going to get out of the way from a regulatory
• 50:22
  perspective, bro, I mean, let's see January 20th.
• 50:26
  I think that's when rubber when what's the saying when rubber
• 50:29
  meets the road? I think that's the saying.
• 50:32
  And let's see. I I want to see I'm going to
• 50:34
  really be paying attention to this.
• 50:37
  He said free Ross day one. So it's it's like, OK, fine.
• 50:42
  January 20 maybe that's and. He doubled down.
• 50:44
  That said all. What'd he say?
• 50:47
  All promises will be kept. Yeah.
• 50:50
  So maybe, maybe. He's.
• 50:52
  Maybe, you know, maybe the maybe it's too much to ask on January
• 50:56
  20th, but I'm telling you it's if it's going to be January 25th
• 50:59
  and Ross is still not in a prison, I'm going to be a little
• 51:02
  bit upset. I'm not going to lie.
• 51:04
  And you'll be like Nico, the joke's on you.
• 51:06
  You know you trusted a positive. Yeah, we can make fun of you
• 51:08
  then. If you dude, I tried.
• 51:10
  At least I tried to get, I tried to free Ross, you know, So my,
• 51:13
  my more my conscious is clear. You know, I don't, I don't
• 51:18
  foresee that happening. I think the Bitcoin class, the
• 51:23
  Bitcoin donor class is becoming more and more influential and
• 51:26
  more and more powerful. As number go up does it's thing
• 51:29
  and as number go up does it's thing and more Bitcoiners are
• 51:33
  become very wealthy. Obviously their influence over
• 51:37
  society is going to grow. That's inevitable.
• 51:41
  That's how it works, right? And, you know, the more
• 51:45
  influence you have over society, the more kind of influence you
• 51:47
  have over politicians, right? The, the, the donor base, like
• 51:50
  Washington, DC is run by donors. That's how it works.
• 51:54
  Like it's, it's not supposed to be.
• 51:56
  It's not the way that's supposed to work, but that's how it
• 51:58
  works. So now you have the military
• 52:01
  industrial complex being a part of the donor class.
• 52:04
  You have all these special all these companies, you know, like,
• 52:08
  you know, everyone sees it the world like I call that the
• 52:10
  continuing air conference, the continuing air donor class
• 52:13
  versus the Bitcoin donor class, right?
• 52:16
  So we've never seen the Bitcoin donor class.
• 52:19
  We don't even know what this is like.
• 52:21
  We don't even know what winning feels like, right?
• 52:25
  So we could be entering into a year where there is nothing to
• 52:30
  compare it to. Going back to what what
• 52:32
  Turdemister was saying, what Marty was saying, what Opti's
• 52:35
  saying, what I'm saying, there is nothing to compare 2025 to on
• 52:40
  a in a historic sense in Bitcoin's history, 2017 was not
• 52:45
  like this. It was 100% retail driven and it
• 52:49
  was a mania and it was the ICO boom.
• 52:52
  None of this Wall Street stuff here, like there was no ETF,
• 52:56
  there was no government approval, there wasn't a
• 52:59
  president saying he's going to not sell Bitcoin to a Bitcoin
• 53:03
  conference. Like even Trump said it.
• 53:06
  This is my last bit because I've been rambling.
• 53:07
  But even Trump said it at one of the things that he said at, at
• 53:13
  in his speech in Nashville. He was like, you know, this
• 53:17
  industry is still in its infancy.
• 53:20
  So and I agree with him. And it's very hard to picture
• 53:24
  this look, and if I told you what the Internet was going to
• 53:26
  be like in 1990, seven, 1998, you would not have believed me.
• 53:32
  You would have been like, what do you mean?
• 53:34
  You're you're going to be hosting a show over the Internet
• 53:37
  and you're going to be streaming it to 4000 people.
• 53:41
  What about the bandwidth? And like, that's impossible.
• 53:44
  There's what how people aren't going to use that.
• 53:46
  What are you talking about? Like that's how hard it is to
• 53:49
  comprehend what it is I'm saying.
• 53:51
  But if you use common sense, it's obvious it's not rocket
• 53:56
  science like. All it's.
• 53:57
  It's all. Lining up.
• 53:58
  It's all lining up now. Does that mean anything is
• 54:01
  guaranteed? No, I mean, that's where the
• 54:03
  speculation comes in, right? But you know, I'm very
• 54:06
  confident. Someone in the chat shorting to
• 54:10
  20K guys, I'm very confident in in, you know, a number go up and
• 54:16
  I'm feeling really good about 2025.
• 54:18
  Let's see if I'm wrong. I'll leave it at that all.
• 54:21
  Right. Hold on, hold on, hold on.
• 54:24
  But we're just we're pumping it up.
• 54:26
  It's Monday. We got to have fun.
• 54:27
  All right, everybody, let's hit the culture.
• 54:30
  We have lots to talk about today.
• 54:31
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• 55:23
  Before we jump into the before we jump into the culture, I do
• 55:30
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• 55:33
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  So it's going to be a party guys.
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  You definitely don't want to miss this.
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  like bit block boom 2025. All right, I'm going to open
• 56:43
  this and have kind of like an open discussion with Opti and
• 56:48
  I'm I want to talk about El Salvador.
• 56:50
  The reason I want to talk about El Salvador is because me and
• 56:52
  Opti were just in El Salvador. We were there for a week.
• 56:55
  I think this is the second or third time that Opti and I have
• 56:57
  been there. We had a epic setup.
• 57:01
  I Sophie, thank you for for shouldering it and you know,
• 57:05
  packing yourself into an apartment of of the whole simply
• 57:09
  Bitcoin, simply Bitcoin. Mother.
• 57:13
  But we had a six set up. It was like facing the volcano.
• 57:17
  I love those shows. It was like one of the best
• 57:21
  backdrops we've ever had. I didn't think it was going to
• 57:23
  be that epic. Shout out to Murphy and and
• 57:27
  Reverend Hoddle for helping us to set up everything.
• 57:30
  But in those lights, man, those lights are so bad.
• 57:33
  They're so huge. They're so perfect.
• 57:34
  Those lights, they lit up the face.
• 57:36
  Amazing. It's amazing.
• 57:38
  Yeah, it was so blinding, dude. I I didn't like those play.
• 57:40
  Literally spotlight. We were we were backlit, bro,
• 57:44
  like I mean, it was it was gnarly.
• 57:46
  So anyways, we just had this adventure in El Salvador.
• 57:49
  We streamed the adopting Bitcoin conference had some interesting
• 57:56
  adventures there, you know, with the Internet in the middle of
• 57:58
  the jungle, But it was a it was a great experience at the end of
• 58:01
  the day. And, but I, I do want to talk
• 58:04
  about El Salvador because Opti, you and I, you know, we kind of
• 58:08
  explored the city a little bit, went out to eat.
• 58:10
  We were walking on the streets, you know, and you and I are both
• 58:14
  Hispanic. For anyone who doesn't know, I'm
• 58:16
  originally from Venezuela. Opti's originally from Mexico,
• 58:19
  so. What would you say?
• 58:21
  Is like the difference, like I, I feel it for me more so than
• 58:27
  the infrastructure and the streets and whatever, even
• 58:30
  though it is getting like cleaned up.
• 58:32
  Without a doubt. It's the people, bro.
• 58:35
  I feel the vibe shift. It's very, very difficult to
• 58:41
  describe, but you see hope in people and regularly I would
• 58:47
  feel very unsafe in The Walking through certain neighborhoods
• 58:53
  and certain situations. And it's not that maybe I felt
• 58:58
  like, OK, I had to like look over my shoulder sometime.
• 59:00
  That was like the natural reaction, but I felt like it
• 59:05
  was, I felt a lot safer, like if I was doing that in the
• 59:11
  Dominican Republic or something, like I would be sketched out.
• 59:15
  But in El Salvador I felt like, you know, I was like, I think
• 59:18
  I'll be OK. And I really felt that I, I have
• 59:22
  not been to El Salvador and found myself in a situation and
• 59:25
  you know what, like you feel it in your gut.
• 59:28
  These are the types of you you find yourself in those
• 59:31
  situations in Latin America. If you know, you know or you
• 59:35
  find yourself in a predicament in your gut, it's telling you
• 59:38
  you are in danger. All right, that you feel it.
• 59:41
  It's like this like a little like your, your hair stand in
• 59:44
  the back of your neck and you're like, OK, maybe I should not
• 59:47
  have walked down the street, right?
• 59:49
  You feel that? You get those vibes.
• 59:51
  I have not felt that one time since I've been to El Salvador
• 59:54
  and I've done some inch like there was one time where my
• 59:57
  shoes broke and I got into like an Uber and I'm like, hey, my
• 1:00:01
  shoes broke. I need super glue.
• 1:00:02
  And he took me to a bodega And I go to bodega and I try to buy
• 1:00:06
  and pay in Bitcoin and they're like, no, we don't accept
• 1:00:07
  Bitcoin. And I'm like, I try to pay with
• 1:00:09
  my car and they're like no one accept Bitcoin.
• 1:00:11
  And there's a guy next to me, total stranger and he offered to
• 1:00:13
  pay. He's like he had like a 1/4 or
• 1:00:15
  something and he paid and I super glued my shoes and
• 1:00:18
  whatever. But that's the type of shit you
• 1:00:20
  don't do. Right.
• 1:00:22
  It's not like people go missing, right?
• 1:00:24
  And I was just like, I did not feel unsafe and I'm just talking
• 1:00:29
  about. The capital, San Sarola.
• 1:00:31
  Because that's been the majority of my experiences.
• 1:00:33
  But again, I've talked to the people.
• 1:00:36
  The airport is so nice. It's like they clean it up.
• 1:00:40
  It's incredible. It's like very clean.
• 1:00:42
  I think this is a combination of the Buchele effect.
• 1:00:45
  Like he is, his leadership is. You cannot deny the guy has, you
• 1:00:50
  know, increase the quality of life in that country, which is
• 1:00:54
  why believe he's as popular as he is.
• 1:00:56
  Who would have thought, right? This is the ball of this the job
• 1:00:59
  of a of a president. Who would have thought?
• 1:01:02
  And then I think it's making Bitcoin legal tender, which
• 1:01:06
  fixes the base layer of society, which I know it's going to take
• 1:01:09
  a little bit of time for them to fully feel that effect.
• 1:01:13
  But I'm telling you, there's something really deep about
• 1:01:16
  that. Like there's something different
• 1:01:19
  about being in Bitcoin country. And I asked, I asked Kaiser
• 1:01:23
  about it when he came on the the news desk during adopting
• 1:01:27
  Bitcoin. I said, like, what is this?
• 1:01:29
  And his answer was so short and sweet.
• 1:01:31
  But he says, like El Salvador is the first country that has gone
• 1:01:35
  out of the fourth turning mic drop.
• 1:01:37
  And that's when I'm going to pass it on to Opti.
• 1:01:40
  Opti, do you agree with me as a Hispanic, as a Latin American?
• 1:01:45
  Do you see the hope? Do you see the Peranza in El
• 1:01:48
  Salvador? What's your take?
• 1:01:50
  Yeah, definitely. I mean, first of all, Nico, I
• 1:01:52
  think you did kind of hit the nail on the head.
• 1:01:54
  Like it's still a developing country.
• 1:01:56
  Obviously, this the first time I've been in in the capital, San
• 1:02:00
  Salvador. I've been, you know, a Bitcoin
• 1:02:02
  beach. We've gone a little farther and
• 1:02:04
  the vibes on the beach are obviously it feels great.
• 1:02:07
  It feels very like tropical and you're like, you know, you're
• 1:02:10
  sitting in the cabana, you're going in the water, you're
• 1:02:12
  eating some good food. It feels a little more like
• 1:02:14
  tourist, the like more of a tourist destination.
• 1:02:17
  But being in the city, I was, you know, maybe I was a little,
• 1:02:21
  a little too bullish and I, I expected it to be, you know,
• 1:02:26
  fully developed, but obviously it's a developing country, but
• 1:02:29
  you can definitely feel the vibes there.
• 1:02:32
  And that's kind of was the most interesting part about it.
• 1:02:35
  We walked around, I forget what it was like the historic capital
• 1:02:39
  and Nico actually he was hanging out.
• 1:02:40
  So it's me, Jacob and Sophie and we got the kid, you know, we got
• 1:02:43
  baby Nico with us the whole time we're pushing it around in the
• 1:02:46
  stroller. And you could definitely feel
• 1:02:48
  like there is a palpable sense of like hopefulness and people
• 1:02:53
  being encouraging of tourist. And there is no like weird looks
• 1:02:57
  or anything. And it's like, I don't, it's
• 1:02:59
  hard to explain because it, there is like a vibe there where
• 1:03:02
  you can tell people are happy. They're obviously in love with
• 1:03:05
  Buchella and what he's done for their country.
• 1:03:07
  Not only did he make the country safer, but by embracing Bitcoin,
• 1:03:12
  he's made or rather he's put El Salvador on the map.
• 1:03:15
  And it is going to be very interesting to see what El
• 1:03:19
  Salvador does in the next 10 or 20 years if they can leapfrog a
• 1:03:22
  lot of these nations and become a superpower in in Latin and
• 1:03:27
  Central South America. Because, you know, we were, we
• 1:03:30
  weren't at that close to the Google building, but from our
• 1:03:33
  apartment you can see around the corner like the Google building
• 1:03:35
  was there. So it is very incredible.
• 1:03:38
  What Bucala is done, obviously it's, it takes a while to
• 1:03:42
  completely turn a country or country around, but like the
• 1:03:46
  vibes there are great. The people are friendly, you
• 1:03:49
  know, the people are very hopeful.
• 1:03:50
  You can just feel like there is an energy there of people
• 1:03:53
  wanting to not only get better, but like understanding that they
• 1:03:56
  are on the world stage now and what they're doing there is very
• 1:04:00
  important. And obviously Bitcoin is a part
• 1:04:02
  of that. And so going down there, seeing
• 1:04:04
  the city was great. We had a blast in the jungle.
• 1:04:07
  The venue for adopting Bitcoin was awesome.
• 1:04:09
  You know, the only caveat was the storms and the fact that our
• 1:04:12
  Internet kept messing with us. Other than that, we had a great
• 1:04:16
  time. We were at steak the whole time,
• 1:04:18
  like it was. It was great, man.
• 1:04:20
  I had fun. Dude, the steak, man, it's
• 1:04:22
  crazy. The quality of the steak,
• 1:04:24
  they're incredible. Incredible.
• 1:04:26
  Yeah, man, I, I, I agree with that assessment.
• 1:04:29
  It's just, you know, amazing country.
• 1:04:33
  Very, very bullish about its future and what Bokele has done
• 1:04:38
  in just short amount of time. I mean, it proves like, isn't it
• 1:04:41
  crazy, Opti, that, you know, a president like he gets into
• 1:04:47
  office and he lowers crime and he creates a positive
• 1:04:50
  environment for private property and small business to thrive and
• 1:04:55
  small business thrives and everyone wins and everyone gets
• 1:04:58
  wealthier. Isn't that crazy?
• 1:05:00
  Is that such a crazy concept? It's so simple for us.
• 1:05:05
  Like it's like, yeah, just, you know, create a safe environment
• 1:05:08
  so that people feel safe and they can raise their family,
• 1:05:11
  protect private property. That's the whole role of.
• 1:05:14
  That's why we're paying for government.
• 1:05:16
  Not to go to war. Not that's not, that's not why
• 1:05:20
  we pay for government, right? It's to protect private
• 1:05:23
  property. This create a safe environment
• 1:05:25
  where you can kind of raise your kids and you have to look over
• 1:05:28
  your shoulder and whatever. And he created that and look at
• 1:05:31
  that. He's very popular for it.
• 1:05:33
  Oh, like it's not it's not difficult, you know, but I think
• 1:05:37
  Fiat has like Frankensteined like politicians.
• 1:05:44
  So driving I think politicians have been like they Frankenstein
• 1:05:52
  what the role of government be. It should be because they feel
• 1:05:56
  empowered by Fiat and the money printer like like I think it's
• 1:06:01
  like it's like a it's it's intoxicating for them.
• 1:06:04
  Like it must be a power. You imagine like everyone spends
• 1:06:09
  hours like working their asses off for like this money and then
• 1:06:13
  all of a sudden you like win a popularity contest and you're
• 1:06:16
  like college for everyone is free.
• 1:06:19
  Like dude, that must be intoxicating like that, that
• 1:06:21
  that power must be crazy. And I think over the decades,
• 1:06:25
  like it, like it, it bloats these politicians egos.
• 1:06:29
  And then you kind of end in a situation where you are today in
• 1:06:32
  the United States where it's like all the money printing all
• 1:06:36
  this thing. We're like in the wealthiest
• 1:06:37
  country. And then the middle class can't
• 1:06:39
  afford homes. That wasn't like that 20 years
• 1:06:42
  ago, 30 years ago. Supposedly we were poor back
• 1:06:45
  then. What happened?
• 1:06:47
  It's Fiat. It's Fiat.
• 1:06:49
  It's like money. It's the broken financial
• 1:06:51
  system. This is what Bitcoin's all
• 1:06:52
  about, right? So anyways, I'm glad that we
• 1:06:56
  don't have to talk about elections anymore.
• 1:06:57
  I'm glad we don't have to talk about politics.
• 1:07:00
  But you know, at the end of the day, this is Bitcoin.
• 1:07:03
  Bitcoin fixes a lot of things. By the way, you don't have to
• 1:07:06
  wait or move to El Salvador to start benefiting from Bitcoin.
• 1:07:10
  You can start doing that today. And all you got to do is buy
• 1:07:13
  Bitcoin, earn Bitcoin, mine Bitcoin, put that Bitcoin in
• 1:07:16
  self custody and bom, bom, Bing boom bom, you're going to,
• 1:07:20
  you're going to benefit. It's going to be great.
• 1:07:21
  It's going to be phenomenal. You're going to love it.
• 1:07:26
  Wait, do that again. Oh man, wow.
• 1:07:30
  That's great. That's great.
• 1:07:33
  Yeah, man, it's it's it's definitely interesting to see
• 1:07:38
  what El Salvador is doing. Like that's Kaiser quote, first
• 1:07:41
  country to leave the 4th turning.
• 1:07:42
  Like, I think that's a very powerful, powerful observation.
• 1:07:46
  And I think, you know, the next 5-10 years is going to be
• 1:07:50
  interesting not just to watch what happens in El Salvador, but
• 1:07:53
  watch what's happening in, you know, European countries when
• 1:07:57
  they're actively fighting Bitcoin.
• 1:07:59
  It's going to be very interesting to see if the US
• 1:08:01
  does embrace Bitcoin and or rather like, you know, does a
• 1:08:05
  little more laissez faire and like stops trying to cripple the
• 1:08:09
  industry. It is going to be very
• 1:08:11
  interesting to see what countries do when there is a
• 1:08:15
  fork in the road and whether they embrace Bitcoin or not.
• 1:08:18
  I think it's fundamentally going to show who the winners and
• 1:08:21
  losers are going to be moving forward in this, you know,
• 1:08:24
  latter part of this decade and moving into the next decade.
• 1:08:27
  And Naibu Kelly is will forever be the first president to adopt
• 1:08:33
  Bitcoin, the first country to adopt Bitcoin.
• 1:08:36
  And I think that's really changing the trajectory of the
• 1:08:39
  country. And now we're seeing that the
• 1:08:41
  laggards are going to have to follow soon.
• 1:08:44
  So hopefully, you know, where I'm US centric, I'm more of an
• 1:08:48
  American supremacist here than Nikko, but I believe in the idea
• 1:08:53
  of American excellence. And I really do want to see
• 1:08:55
  America embrace Bitcoin, especially considering we are
• 1:08:59
  the World Economic power right now.
• 1:09:01
  And you know, again, quoting Kaiser, if if Trump and his
• 1:09:06
  administration is smart, then they're going to be following
• 1:09:09
  Buckley lead and you're going to see the exponential growth from
• 1:09:13
  all of these countries that again either embrace Bitcoin or
• 1:09:16
  the exponential. I don't know what the opposite
• 1:09:18
  is decline of these countries that don't embrace Bitcoin.
• 1:09:21
  I. Think the way that you you
• 1:09:23
  phrase it, which is like you're just America first.
• 1:09:26
  You're like, OK, let me put America first because.
• 1:09:28
  Again guys, I'm I'm an American public school student, so I only
• 1:09:32
  think about America. But but let me, I want to
• 1:09:35
  emphasize this like just because you're like, OK, I want to put
• 1:09:39
  my like country first. Doctor Jack in the chat Let's.
• 1:09:43
  Go Donald J Trump is not a Boo Kelly.
• 1:09:46
  Doctor Jack, by the way, we just finished editing your talk,
• 1:09:51
  which got ripped because the Internet went conveniently down
• 1:09:54
  at a specific time. We had to put the video through
• 1:09:58
  processing and whatever, all this crazy stuff.
• 1:10:00
  We have it ready. It'll be uploaded soon on
• 1:10:02
  Twitter. Anyways, that being said, you
• 1:10:05
  guys have to check out this Doctor Jacks talk from Adopting
• 1:10:09
  Bitcoin. It was mind blowing and
• 1:10:11
  unfortunately me and ATI were running around trying to figure
• 1:10:14
  out the tech situation while this amazing talk was happening.
• 1:10:20
  And also Doctor Jack roasted me. So you guys, there's a funny
• 1:10:23
  moment there. I got roasted because of my blue
• 1:10:25
  lights. I have blue light blocking
• 1:10:27
  glasses. I'm wearing them right now.
• 1:10:29
  It changed my whole trajectory that that was a powerful speech.
• 1:10:31
  I've been, I've been binge watching Doctor Jack content and
• 1:10:34
  I'm like so wrecked in my apartment.
• 1:10:36
  I'm like, oh, the blue light's killing me.
• 1:10:38
  I'm waking up earlier. I'm getting some sun on me in
• 1:10:40
  the morning. Doctor Jack, first the message.
• 1:10:42
  Heard the first thing you do, you wake up, you get sun in your
• 1:10:45
  eye. 100 percent, 100% Wait. Nico, you're getting trolled.
• 1:10:48
  You gotta wear. I'm going to buy some soon.
• 1:10:51
  Doctor J, if you don't know, watch the watch the presentation
• 1:10:55
  we're going to be post. We're going to be posting it
• 1:10:57
  this week. We we had to process the audio
• 1:10:59
  out of it like last week, but it it's ready.
• 1:11:03
  We've been working on it. Shout out Murphy because he's
• 1:11:05
  really come through. But anyways, guys, I hope you
• 1:11:09
  guys enjoyed the show and if you guys did, make sure to smash
• 1:11:12
  that like button. Consider subscribing if you feel
• 1:11:15
  like we provided you value. But again, the number one thing
• 1:11:18
  you could do to help push the peaceful Bitcoin revolution is
• 1:11:22
  share this content. In fact, share all Bitcoin
• 1:11:24
  content. Get the message out there.
• 1:11:27
  And that's, that's really how we win, really, really winning over
• 1:11:31
  the hearts and minds of individuals.
• 1:11:34
  Anyways guys, love you all. We'll be back tomorrow from a
• 1:11:37
  brand new episode of simply Bitcoin live.
• 1:11:39
  I'm your Co host Nico Opti and the host seat today three days
• 1:11:42
  in a row. Absolutely crazy.
• 1:11:44
  Nico, Nico, why? Why am I keep doing your job bro
• 1:11:47
  I I'm. Business bro.
• 1:11:52
  Alright guys, love you all. We'll see you tomorrow.
• 1:11:54
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• 1:11:59
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