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2022 Crop Tour Day 5 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Today is August 5th.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: We are wrapping up the final day of the crop tour here, day five.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: I've got Lucas Peters on with us today.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk a little bit about Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota to wrap up this tour as he stretched across those states here kind of periodically through the week.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: And then we almost met up yesterday kind of by the Albert Lee area as we crossed back in uh over the state as we went home from one another.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to talk a little bit about that today.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Uh thank you for coming on the show today, Lucas.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: No problem, Mike.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we're looking forward to it.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Uh tell us what you found here to start off with in South Dakota a couple days ago after you went a little bit further south than your initial findings.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, yep.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, South Dakota, I guess not all that different than normal, is uh kind of two extremes in the state.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, earlier in the week we kind of went north and found some really good looking corn all over, and then Thursday we headed south and you know kind of hit into that uh where the drought monitor is showing some pretty significant drought.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: And and truth be told, the drought monitor is probably right.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: The you know, that southeast corner of the state is is really, really poor.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, you get south of generally south of I-90, uh, and then west of 29 is where the worst of it is.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: And there's gonna be a lot of areas in there that uh you know are gonna start chopping uh the corn here this next week, and yields are gonna be 50% of what they normally get.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um we saw some extremes of uh you know, ears or fields with no ears on them at all, and and others that you know maybe it's a 130-bushel um corn crop if they can uh get a little bit of green field time here.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: But it's uh it's definitely the the worst part uh worst part of the area in our backyard anyway.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely kind of that stretch from the Beersford down through halfway through Nebraska.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's pretty much the disaster area uh this year, anyways.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Um not to put it too strongly, but things are definitely well off trend there.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, how about as you moved east a little bit further into Minnesota?
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, what did you think about that crop along the interstate and a little bit north?
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so in in Minnesota, you know, we were kind of uh joking a little bit uh in the in our office of you know the uh good to excellent ratings came out uh on Monday, and we were kind of wanted to know where the not excellent corn was in Minnesota because you know on Monday we we came down the western side of the state, and uh that looks really good.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you know, there's a handful of pockets that look tough, but uh and then you see Cruz on 990 uh east.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: Um man, the corn looks pretty consistent and good all the way.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we did uh a few yield checks over in uh Martin and uh Watan County, and and you're right at uh 200 to 210 bushel an acre, and the crop looks looks good.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, not much moisture stress, not much heat stress.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: So that area looks good, and and talking to some customers further east, it's one of the best crops that uh uh they've ever had, or at least it appears that way uh to date.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um so we thought we, you know, we're kind of continuing the trend of really good-looking fields, and then we went a little further north up into uh towards Mankato.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: And if you look at that drought monitor that came out uh yesterday, um, you know, that's kind of that stretch from Mankato and angling over uh towards uh Marshall, Minnesota is is the area in Minnesota that is the driest.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and we definitely saw that, probably to our surprise.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we thought uh we didn't think we'd see much stress corn, and and you get in that area, and and it definitely is showing up.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: The bottom of the plant is firing, the ground is you know dry and huge cracks in it.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um you know, saying all that, uh there's still really good potential there.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: The stand counts are really good.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: The uh, you know, the pollination went really well.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh ear size is at to the moment is is good.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: The the key is gonna be making sure we hold on to the tips over the next uh few weeks and get to black layer so we don't lose any more uh more bushels.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: And uh and if if we can get some rain in good fall, I think we're gonna see Minnesota come in with a with a really big yield number.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: If we don't, uh, and it's gonna be that same area that Minnesota lacked last year, that Mankato to Marshall area, um, you know, then we're gonna we're gonna see uh in that area a significant drop-off in yield from what they probably thought they'd have a couple weeks ago.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: So to put Minnesota a little bit in perspective here, last year about 92% of the corn grown in uh Minnesota was in some sort of drought.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: So to put that into perspective, pretty much um uh pretty much all of the corn grown in Minnesota was in a drought.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: Crop conditions last year at this time were about 36% good to excellent in Minnesota for uh good to excellent.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: This year, like you said, 63% uh out of that, 67% is kind of the average for the state, so just slightly below average.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh this last week's drought map, you had Minnesota coming in at 31% good to excellent.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got a pretty good case there, wondering where the you know, where the really poor stuff is, but we are significantly better than last year, anyways, is what our drought map would tell us, right?
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: Definitely, and we would say that same as a crop, you know.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: That's you know, the f we talked to some farmers uh like around the Redwood Falls, Webaso area, where last year uh you know they were in the heart of the drought up there, and and uh, you know, I I think they averaged like 160 for a final yield, and that was pretty good considering how it looked.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: This year they're still planning on 200.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but they got the potential there with some cooperative weather to to be over that.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Minnesota as a as a overall total last year had about a 178 yield.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: So as we look at uh, you know, more of our journey into northeastern Iowa yesterday on the eastern side of the state of Iowa, that was pretty much the best crop we had seen.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: It was kind of from that Joy, Illinois, kind of where we ended day four at, and we had really good crops there in the western part of Illinois, and then as we moved in towards Cedar Rapids, up through Waterloo, kind of that area, uh we saw probably some of the best corn, best consistency on the crop.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: And then uh so that eastern side of Iowa, very, you know, close to record, or uh pretty close to it anyways, if not.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: The it wasn't until we really got up to, you know, pretty much our s our second stop of the day, um, more by Kassooth, there, uh about the central part of the state, right along the border of Minnesota, we started to really s show some heat stress, some dryness.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so that had definitely had an impact on that crop up until this point.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: So in Iowa, anyways, that northwestern corner is feeling a little bit more heat stress, but we know obviously that Sioux County area, like we found out at the beginning of the week, really holding on to that with that really deep soil that they've had, uh, really nice growing conditions out of that area that's gonna hold that crop on a little bit longer, even with this dryness.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: But over into that more central part of Iowa, kind of north side, uh, they are not gonna be able to quite hold on quite as long.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: Now, not a disaster by any means.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the hills are kind of burning up some of the lighter grounds, or if the population was extremely high, we noticed that had a significant um impact as well compared to a lower population in the area.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: So there were some things we noticed kind of right on the edge of really pulling that crop backwards.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: So uh again, it's gonna be the theme of the of the crop tour here this year, kind of similar as last year after we wrapped up.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: There were some rains coming after.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um we're looking at a pretty good rain system uh going through this weekend, kind of Saturday through Tuesday.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: That area there is really gonna depend on that.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: So hopefully we can get some rain over there for those guys and at least hold on to the crop they do have at this point, um, as we were just below uh the kind of the bottom end of the trend line for them out of that crop, I'd say.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: So we kind of ran up against each other there between Minnesota and Iowa to finish off the tour, and I don't think we saw anything too different.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think I was a little bit more extreme just into eye weather, but uh pretty good crops in that eastern part of the state that should not get slept on.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: So any finishing thoughts for day five?
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: No, I I think you're you're spot on, Mike, and and uh it's it's probably not good to put this much stress on on one shot of rain, but you know, one of the things this thing the crop tour does is kind of measure the potential in different areas, and and I think that area that you were in and then I was in yesterday, like it's got really good potential, and uh a nice rain here this coming weekend, I think, would seal the deal on that potential and and finish off a really good crop.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for your time today, and uh we'll catch you in the next podcast, which will be the last one as an overall summary.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna give you each state's yield, and uh, we're gonna just talk about the crop in general.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us from our website at professionalagmarketing.com, or check out our newly added hog specific podcast named Hog Market Talk, that's released every Thursday.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk and loss that is not suitable for all investors.