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Debt is now influencing job seekers decisions · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Good morning, welcome back to the Financial Exchange to those
1:14
Speaker 2: listening here in New England and across the nation on
1:16
Speaker 2: Sirius XM. It's the first day of the second half
1:20
Speaker 2: of the year, closing in on that July fourth holiday.
1:23
Speaker 2: We've got a shortened trading week with that holiday coming up.
1:26
Speaker 3: Markets.
1:26
Speaker 2: We'll close at one pm on Thursday for Independence Day
1:29
Speaker 2: and be closed all day Friday as well. We're gonna
1:33
Speaker 2: be joined in the next segment by Corey Adams from
1:36
Speaker 2: Robert Half the Staffing Firm. He always has a great
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Speaker 2: amount of data on the state of the labor market,
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Speaker 2: what employers are looking for, what employees are looking for,
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Speaker 2: and we'll be talking to him during the next segment.
1:47
Speaker 2: We got a job openings in labor Turnover Survey report
1:50
Speaker 2: a JOLTS report this morning at ten am from the
1:52
Speaker 2: Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated no real big change in
1:56
Speaker 2: terms of the pace of actual hiring or firings, total
2:01
Speaker 2: separations and quits all pretty much stayed the same. The
2:04
Speaker 2: one area we saw some mounting pressure here was for
2:08
Speaker 2: job openings. Those saw a bit of an uptick specific
2:11
Speaker 2: and hospital specifically in hospitality, so there was a jump
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Speaker 2: of over three hundred thousand job listings out there at
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Speaker 2: the end of May, most of those three quarters of
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Speaker 2: those coming from the hospitality sector. Obviously it's May, it's
2:25
Speaker 2: the kickoff of the hiring season for that sector anyway,
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Speaker 2: So not hugely on surprising, but falls in line with
2:30
Speaker 2: also some reports we've seen on immigration and who typically
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Speaker 2: works those jobs.
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Speaker 3: So something to keep an eye on there.
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Speaker 2: In terms of all the talk this year has been
2:40
Speaker 2: about the loosening of the labor market. If we get
2:43
Speaker 2: to the point where investors are not quite as concerned
2:46
Speaker 2: about tariffs and they're more focused on this tax bill,
2:49
Speaker 2: and we get the looming impact of fewer workers from
2:54
Speaker 2: ice crack downs on immigration, do you have actually a
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Speaker 2: tighter labor market than we were anticipating this year. I'm
3:01
Speaker 2: always less interested in what everyone thinks is going to
3:03
Speaker 2: happen and more interested in the kind of outside scenarios,
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Speaker 2: and a tightening labor market in twenty twenty five would
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Speaker 2: definitely be against the grain of what we're expecting for
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Speaker 2: this year. We are going to be getting a report
3:15
Speaker 2: on Thursday morning, a whole bunch of reports on Thursday
3:19
Speaker 2: actually on the state of the labor market, one of
3:21
Speaker 2: which is our weekly jobless claims numbers that come in.
3:25
Speaker 2: We'll also be getting some data from the BLS on
3:28
Speaker 2: the overall state of the labor market through the monthly
3:30
Speaker 2: jobs report. Jerome Powell was speaking earlier this morning about
3:34
Speaker 2: interest rates and policy out in Portugal with the ECB,
3:38
Speaker 2: so some stuff to cover there, but relatively quiet week
3:42
Speaker 2: obviously on markets, as most traders you know, head out
3:47
Speaker 2: to Long Island or down the Cape for the long weekend,
3:51
Speaker 2: and pretty quiet weekend market so far as we kick
3:55
Speaker 2: off the second half of this year after a honestly
3:59
Speaker 2: kind of surprise if you ignored what happened in between
4:02
Speaker 2: where we started on January one and where we ended
4:05
Speaker 2: on June thirtieth, was relatively calm, all said and done.
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Speaker 2: You just had a twenty percent dip in between all
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Speaker 2: of it. Debt is apparently a growing force influencing job
4:15
Speaker 2: seekers choices, according to an interview done by CNBC and So.
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Speaker 2: According to this study, thirty seven percent of people who
4:26
Speaker 2: respond to the survey that owe money oh less than
4:29
Speaker 2: ten thousand dollars about twenty percent to open to twenty
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Speaker 2: five thousand, and this group is being influenced to take
4:34
Speaker 2: on second job. It's about thirty eight percent of survey
4:36
Speaker 2: respondents said they took on a second job to pay
4:39
Speaker 2: their debts, according to a report by set By Zetti.
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Speaker 3: And I think speaks to something.
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Speaker 2: That we have been seeing in a lot of the
4:48
Speaker 2: data recently, which is there is a large swath of
4:51
Speaker 2: the American public who, with inflation, is very much struggling
4:56
Speaker 2: to get by over the last few years.
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Speaker 4: Paul, Yeah, it's been a difficult run.
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Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at prices mic back where
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Speaker 5: they were five years ago versus where they stand today.
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Speaker 5: We we all know the inflationary impacts there, and not
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Speaker 5: all jobs have kept up with that increase. And as
5:12
Speaker 5: a result of that, you have some people out here
5:14
Speaker 5: looking for for different jobs. Seventy one percent of those
5:17
Speaker 5: surveyed have credit card debt. Not only is that troubling
5:21
Speaker 5: that they have to take on debt, but also you
5:23
Speaker 5: have credit card rates at a level that are very
5:26
Speaker 5: high from an interest rate perspective, averaging twenty plus percent there. So,
5:31
Speaker 5: you know, there are some suggestions mentioned this piece, but
5:35
Speaker 5: I don't I don't love them, and it's you know.
5:38
Speaker 4: We're do a different job. Yeah, I mean, of course,
5:40
Speaker 4: that that's.
5:41
Speaker 3: Fine and you'll be fine with your I'm not going
5:44
Speaker 3: to sit.
5:44
Speaker 5: Here on this program and tell anyone something that they
5:47
Speaker 5: would already know if that were the situation. Obviously, scrutiny
5:51
Speaker 5: on your expenses is important. I do think from a
5:54
Speaker 5: long term perspective, when you go into a certain career,
5:57
Speaker 5: people have to go in eyes wide open as to
5:58
Speaker 5: what the potential up mobility is in that particular sector
6:02
Speaker 5: of work. That is the thing that I could say
6:05
Speaker 5: that just go in eyes what open, so you understand
6:08
Speaker 5: what the path looks like. Because I have talked with
6:10
Speaker 5: people previously who find themselves in difficult financial straits and
6:14
Speaker 5: I pose the question of well, ge in your position,
6:17
Speaker 5: do you feel as if you can move upward? And
6:18
Speaker 5: if there isn't that potential to move forward? A younger
6:23
Speaker 5: person I was speaking to is living in Boston making
6:26
Speaker 5: thirty five or forty K a year as a lab
6:29
Speaker 5: research assistant, and I said, gee, what are what are
6:32
Speaker 5: your plans? Because basically the rental payment was suffocating all
6:37
Speaker 5: of the income that they have. I said, well, is
6:39
Speaker 5: this a job at a lab where you would be
6:42
Speaker 5: paid more in a couple of years And it was
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Speaker 5: unclear the answer, and that to me was quite concerning
6:49
Speaker 5: because you're not going to find a place to Boston
6:51
Speaker 5: in Boston to live in sustainably making that Yeah, I was.
6:54
Speaker 2: Gonna say, unless we're talking about Boston, Ohio, I don't
6:57
Speaker 2: really know how that's very doable.
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Speaker 3: So yeah, that's a fair point there.
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Speaker 2: It goes back to there's something that really stuck with
7:05
Speaker 2: me that I read last sometime over the course the
7:07
Speaker 2: last few years, the Federal Reserve puts out what's called
7:10
Speaker 2: their Beijes Book. It's more formally called the Summary of
7:13
Speaker 2: Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, and basically all of the
7:16
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve presidents go out and they send their people
7:19
Speaker 2: out to talk to the community about stories they're hearing
7:21
Speaker 2: from businesses, from individuals. And I think I don't remember
7:25
Speaker 2: who put it this way, but one of the Federal
7:26
Speaker 2: Reserve Bank presidents summarized a few of these conversations. When
7:30
Speaker 2: they're trying to weigh out the impact of unemployment versus
7:33
Speaker 2: high inflation. People clearly hate the inflation scenario a lot more,
7:38
Speaker 2: and part of it's because it affects everybody. But bring
7:42
Speaker 2: that to your community, right in cases where we've had
7:45
Speaker 2: really bad unemployment. Paul, what sort of unemployment rates would
7:48
Speaker 2: you consider to be really bad in this environmable digits,
7:52
Speaker 2: double diggers to be terrible. Yeah, I mean we saw
7:54
Speaker 2: that during COVID that's exceedingly rare. Even seven or eight
7:57
Speaker 2: percent unemployment is pretty bad. In those where you have
8:01
Speaker 2: some modest higher unemployment. It's devastating for those that are affected,
8:06
Speaker 2: but you know there are members of your community who
8:08
Speaker 2: are still likely doing okay. And one person put it,
8:11
Speaker 2: you know, in the Great Recession, a bunch of people
8:14
Speaker 2: lost their jobs, but you know I was able to
8:16
Speaker 2: call on an uncle who still had is and borrow
8:18
Speaker 2: a few bucks to make ends meet. When you have
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Speaker 2: inflation of this magnitude, everyone in your community is affected
8:27
Speaker 2: in the same way. And you might still have your job,
8:29
Speaker 2: but that job doesn't pay enough to pay the bills,
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Speaker 2: and you're finding yourself in this position where you can't
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Speaker 2: get by, nor can anyone in your immediate community, and
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Speaker 2: you're kind of left with no great alternatives other than
8:42
Speaker 2: running up debt. And so I think it speaks a
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Speaker 2: little bit too the difficult of the inflationary environment we've
8:48
Speaker 2: been in over the last few years. We got to
8:50
Speaker 2: take quick break Corey Adams from Robert Haff joining us
8:53
Speaker 2: next on The Financial Exchange.
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10:06
Speaker 2: Joining US now is Corey Adams from staffing firm Robert Half.
10:10
Speaker 2: Corey always appreciate talking to you this time of the month, especially.
10:14
Speaker 3: How are you.
10:15
Speaker 7: I'm good, Mike.
10:16
Speaker 3: How you doing very well? Thanks?
10:17
Speaker 2: So, before we get into the survey, you spoke to
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Speaker 2: twenty two hundred US hiring managers. I'm sure we've got
10:24
Speaker 2: a pretty good sense of the state of the labor market.
10:26
Speaker 3: How are you.
10:26
Speaker 2: Describing it right now? I mean, we get the jobs
10:30
Speaker 2: report on Friday. We've been seeing some uptick in those
10:34
Speaker 2: claims for unemployment, but at the same time, this morning
10:37
Speaker 2: we got a pretty good report on new job openings.
10:41
Speaker 2: How do you describe the labor market generally right now?
10:44
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean this is obviously hut up the press
10:46
Speaker 7: right with the Jiels report coming out not too long ago,
10:48
Speaker 7: we saw the job openings were a little changed at
10:51
Speaker 7: seven point eight million in the month of May. And
10:54
Speaker 7: you know that tells us that we've been saying that
10:55
Speaker 7: the job openings continue to be above an historical average,
10:59
Speaker 7: reflecting we're describing and have been describing as a pent
11:03
Speaker 7: up demand for hiring. And you know, as you saw,
11:05
Speaker 7: you know, you also see the job openings for April
11:08
Speaker 7: were revised up by four thousand, which seems to be happening.
11:11
Speaker 7: Obviously a welcomed revision. That's seven point four millions. But
11:14
Speaker 7: we also saw that hires were also revised up as well,
11:17
Speaker 7: So those are both really really positive science.
11:19
Speaker 2: So the survey you did, your one of your findings
11:22
Speaker 2: here was that it's just taking longer to higher can
11:26
Speaker 2: can you first tell us about the survey and who
11:28
Speaker 2: you spoke to and what the results seemed to indicate.
11:31
Speaker 7: Sure, So, twenty two hundred US managers were surveyed and
11:34
Speaker 7: they found and this is sort of the big takeaway,
11:36
Speaker 7: is that ninety three percent said the hiring process now
11:39
Speaker 7: tanks longer than it did two years ago. And when
11:41
Speaker 7: they were asked what part of the process taking more time,
11:44
Speaker 7: they actually said was the evaluation candidate applications, then with
11:48
Speaker 7: checking references or conducting background checks, and then finally it
11:51
Speaker 7: was scheduling and conducting actual interviews. So the key stat
11:56
Speaker 7: I would share is that we know that hiring plans
11:59
Speaker 7: have moderated, but ninety two percent indicate that it remains
12:02
Speaker 7: difficult to landskilled talents, and fifty seven percent of managers
12:06
Speaker 7: plan to expand their teams in the second half of
12:08
Speaker 7: this year. It's important to know that's down from sixty
12:11
Speaker 7: three percent six months ago.
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Speaker 2: Look, the last thing you want to do is make
12:16
Speaker 2: a mistake hiring, right, even in the United States, where
12:19
Speaker 2: it's relatively easy to terminate in at will employee, it's
12:24
Speaker 2: still difficult. There's still risk there, and so I can
12:27
Speaker 2: understand the hesitancy when it comes to the hiring process.
12:31
Speaker 2: But how much of this is an indication of just
12:35
Speaker 2: the state of things right now? Where I mean, for instance,
12:38
Speaker 2: we had a job open here recently and just flooded
12:41
Speaker 2: with applications. I think the process of applying becomes a
12:44
Speaker 2: lot easier these days. Artificial intelligence now is starting to
12:48
Speaker 2: play a role in all of that. How much of
12:50
Speaker 2: this is technological change versus just the state of the
12:54
Speaker 2: labor market.
12:57
Speaker 7: Well, I think it's probably a few things, and as
12:59
Speaker 7: a lot here so we'd know, as I just referenced
13:02
Speaker 7: from the survey that companies are seeing as surge and applications,
13:06
Speaker 7: especially for hibend and remote roles. So it's really slowing
13:10
Speaker 7: down the resume review and screening process. And you're also
13:13
Speaker 7: finding companies that have more layers of internal approval, stretch
13:16
Speaker 7: of compliance protocols, and just an increase reliance on team
13:18
Speaker 7: interviews and all this is dragging out the timeline. So
13:21
Speaker 7: ultimately what you're feeling is that organizations are somewhat hesitant
13:25
Speaker 7: to actually make a hiring decision quickly due to some
13:27
Speaker 7: economic uncertainty, and so they'd rather opt to prolong the
13:31
Speaker 7: process to reduce what they consider perceived brick. So what
13:34
Speaker 7: we suggest is a few things in terms of some
13:36
Speaker 7: of these costly hiring mistakes that you just reference. So
13:39
Speaker 7: first I would tell you that slow doesn't necessarily mean
13:42
Speaker 7: strategic right. Companies should really use a structured interview an
13:46
Speaker 7: assessment process, not just longer timelines to improve their outcomes.
13:50
Speaker 7: So involving way too many stakeholders in the process can
13:53
Speaker 7: actually create delays and oftentimes even build confusion. So streamline
13:57
Speaker 7: the process by sending clear timelines and consistent evaluation criteria
14:02
Speaker 7: in limiting interviews to only essential decision makers.
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Speaker 2: How about that OVERALLSS, I mean, are we seeing people?
14:12
Speaker 2: Are we seeing candidates just you know, move away from
14:14
Speaker 2: jobs that are taking too long? Like how important is
14:17
Speaker 2: that more of a streamlined hiring process? And are there
14:21
Speaker 2: technologies that can be used to help this along. I
14:24
Speaker 2: mean when you talk about scheduling, right, I just think
14:26
Speaker 2: to myself, how many interviews or how many meetings have
14:29
Speaker 2: I scheduled just by clicking a link in somebody's email?
14:32
Speaker 2: Why is this process taking so long? What practical things
14:35
Speaker 2: can employers do to improve this process?
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Speaker 7: So there's probably a feeling from an applicant perspective that
14:44
Speaker 7: they're probably being overscreened in today's market. So some employers
14:49
Speaker 7: are just hesitant to commit to a hiring decision and
14:51
Speaker 7: often expand the list of required skills, which can splut
14:54
Speaker 7: on the hiring. It can also frustrate the candidates themselves.
14:57
Speaker 7: So an over lengthy process or access a round of
15:00
Speaker 7: interviews sends a message that the company may be indecisive
15:03
Speaker 7: or worse yet, it's organized. So delays between interview rounds
15:06
Speaker 7: without communication can create a poor canonate experience. It can
15:09
Speaker 7: even harm the employer brand if you think about it.
15:12
Speaker 7: So those candidates within demand skills are often interviewing with
15:15
Speaker 7: multiple companies from multiple roles, and you know what, they're
15:17
Speaker 7: not going to wait for the slow movers. So companies
15:20
Speaker 7: should really at this point be distinguishing between the must
15:23
Speaker 7: haves and the nice to have qualifications to avoid overscreening.
15:27
Speaker 7: So in terms of additional resources, listen work with the
15:30
Speaker 7: local town solutions firm like Robert Half. They can also
15:34
Speaker 7: help provide an outside perspective in terms of vetting support
15:37
Speaker 7: and make better hiring decisions. In general, stocking firms can
15:40
Speaker 7: actually help hiring managers move quickly to some of the
15:43
Speaker 7: most time consuming phases of the process, like reviewing applications
15:46
Speaker 7: and pre screening candidates, because it's basically a full time
15:49
Speaker 7: job just vetting through the number of applicants as you
15:51
Speaker 7: referenced earlier.
15:52
Speaker 2: Any tips for the employees out there looking for the
15:55
Speaker 2: jobs in particular, I've been hearing a lot from recent
15:59
Speaker 2: college grads and just the difficulty they're finding in finding
16:03
Speaker 2: a job in their related industry. Any tips for those
16:05
Speaker 2: searching employment right now?
16:07
Speaker 7: Sure, So we've got a longer hiring cycle and more
16:10
Speaker 7: applicants for open jobs, So I can give four tips.
16:13
Speaker 7: Two we've shared in the past, but I think it's
16:15
Speaker 7: pertinent to remind some of these areas that people can
16:18
Speaker 7: focus on. So first, you're going to want to expand
16:20
Speaker 7: your search, be open minded about new opportunities, and different
16:23
Speaker 7: industries and departments, and in doing so, this will actually
16:25
Speaker 7: help expand your search and introduce your new opportunities that
16:28
Speaker 7: you probably hadn't thought about previously. Secondly, I would say
16:31
Speaker 7: embrace contract work. Professionals can gain experience and build both
16:35
Speaker 7: their resumes and network by doing contract work. This type
16:38
Speaker 7: of work provides a good opportunity to up skill while
16:40
Speaker 7: still looking for a full time, permanent position. Third, I
16:44
Speaker 7: would say invest in your skills. Professional developments such as
16:47
Speaker 7: certifications can really boost your marketability. Developing expertise in areas
16:51
Speaker 7: like you referenced, such as AI can actually help increase
16:54
Speaker 7: your earning potential, not just now but over time. And
16:57
Speaker 7: then finally, and this is just the lost art is
17:00
Speaker 7: send to thank you note. According to Robert Half research,
17:02
Speaker 7: nearly a third of employers say that when considering canvas
17:05
Speaker 7: equal skills and experience, a thank you note following the
17:09
Speaker 7: interview can actually tip the scales in the cannas paper.
17:11
Speaker 7: So this really small gesure appreciation actually goes a long
17:15
Speaker 7: way towards making a positive impression.
17:18
Speaker 2: That's Corey Adams from the staffing firm Robert Half talking
17:21
Speaker 2: to us about their most recent hiring slowdown. Survey they did. Corey,
17:25
Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate We'll talk to
17:27
Speaker 2: you again soon.
17:28
Speaker 7: Thanks every great forth All.
17:30
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Speaker 2: again just what makes investing specifically in Chinese stocks so
19:16
Speaker 2: much different. Had something like this happened to a major
19:20
Speaker 2: US brand, they wouldn't exist anymore, it is my general conclusion. Nonetheless,
19:27
Speaker 2: Luck and Coffee making its US debuts, so we'll get
19:30
Speaker 2: your coffee, folks.
19:30
Speaker 3: Quick break. Wall Street Watches.
19:32
Speaker 8: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
19:43
Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:47
Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch a complete
19:53
Speaker 1: look at what's moving markets so far today right here
19:56
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:59
Speaker 6: Markets and mixed territory as traders continue to monitor developments
20:02
Speaker 6: out of Washington regarding the tax bills, seemingly inching closer
20:06
Speaker 6: to the finish line and the Senate. Wall Street is
20:09
Speaker 6: also reacting to fresh economic data points released earlier this
20:13
Speaker 6: morning on the manufacturing and job openings front. Right now,
20:17
Speaker 6: the Dow is up by nearly one percent, or four
20:20
Speaker 6: hundred and twenty three points, SMP five hundred is dipping
20:24
Speaker 6: by nine points, and the Nasdaq is off by over
20:27
Speaker 6: eight tenths of one percent or one hundred and seventy points.
20:30
Speaker 6: RUSTED two thousand is edging four points higher, Tenure Treasure
20:33
Speaker 6: reeled up three basis points now at four point twenty
20:36
Speaker 6: six percent, and crude oil up about half a percent higher,
20:39
Speaker 6: trading at sixty five dollars and forty one cents a barrel.
20:43
Speaker 6: Tesla stock in the spotlight again on the heels of
20:46
Speaker 6: an increased spat between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump.
20:51
Speaker 6: After a series of critical posts from Musk about the
20:54
Speaker 6: Big Beautiful tax bill, President Trump shot back, saying that
20:57
Speaker 6: the US Department of Government, if Efficiency or DOGE, should
21:02
Speaker 6: look at subsidies four Musk's companies for potential cost cutting measures.
21:07
Speaker 6: Tesla shares are down five percent. Meanwhile, Robinhood announced it
21:11
Speaker 6: as launching new cryptocurrency services designed to make it a
21:14
Speaker 6: hub for digital assets. After rallying thirteen percent yesterday on
21:18
Speaker 6: that news in seeing more gains in early trading, that
21:22
Speaker 6: stock is actually now retreating by two percent. Elsewhere Meta
21:27
Speaker 6: pulling back by two percent now after our CEO, Mark
21:31
Speaker 6: Zuckerberg unveiled a new superintelligence division at the Facebook and
21:34
Speaker 6: Instagram parent company. Ford announced its sales rows fourteen point
21:38
Speaker 6: two percent during the second quarter over the year earlier period,
21:42
Speaker 6: about ten times the estimated one point four percent industry increase.
21:46
Speaker 6: Four shares are up by three percent at the moment,
21:50
Speaker 6: and Arrow Environment shares down by seven percent after the
21:53
Speaker 6: defense contractor announced proposed offerings of seven hundred and fifty
21:57
Speaker 6: million dollars in common stock and six hundred million in
22:00
Speaker 6: convertible senior notes. Do twenty thirty. I'm Tucker Silva and
22:05
Speaker 6: that is Wallstree Watch and the previous segment we asked
22:08
Speaker 6: the trivia question what year did Sony end production of
22:12
Speaker 6: the Walkman?
22:13
Speaker 4: That would be twenty ten.
22:15
Speaker 6: Gordon from Sanford, Maine is our winner today taking home
22:18
Speaker 6: a Financial Exchange Show T shirt and we play trivia
22:21
Speaker 6: every day here on the Financial Exchange see complete contest
22:24
Speaker 6: rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
22:27
Speaker 3: Paul.
22:27
Speaker 2: According to Barons, the S and P five hundred, which
22:31
Speaker 2: closed in a record sixty two to oh one on Monday,
22:34
Speaker 2: now sitting at twenty two point eight times future twelve
22:38
Speaker 2: month earnings.
22:40
Speaker 3: Why should I Carey.
22:43
Speaker 2: Explain to me what does this mean? Why should I care?
22:46
Speaker 2: That's the highest level that we've seen since two thousand
22:49
Speaker 2: and three, I think is why I should care. But
22:51
Speaker 2: give me some context.
22:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, So basically, this is a valuation metric.
22:55
Speaker 5: You can use a lot of different ones out there,
22:57
Speaker 5: but what it's trying to capture is the price of
23:01
Speaker 5: the constituents of the S and P five hundred, which
23:03
Speaker 5: are spread across eleven different sectors out there, relative to
23:06
Speaker 5: what they earn as a collective.
23:08
Speaker 4: And the way that it's used is.
23:10
Speaker 5: To get a sense for what is the price and
23:13
Speaker 5: how does that look from a historical perspective. So this one,
23:16
Speaker 5: as you mentioned, is quite significantly high. It's much more
23:19
Speaker 5: expensive than normally those stocks have been priced. These types
23:22
Speaker 5: of valuation metrics, Mike, are helpful when you're looking for
23:26
Speaker 5: long term perspective on the markets. However, from a short
23:31
Speaker 5: term indicator. They can be almost useless just because valuations
23:35
Speaker 5: are a product of what people are willing to pay
23:38
Speaker 5: for a certain amount of earnings from a company, and
23:41
Speaker 5: they can be really noisy. And also what you can see,
23:44
Speaker 5: just because something is priced expensive today doesn't mean it
23:47
Speaker 5: will revert back to the mean or it's average tomorrow.
23:51
Speaker 3: And so it's also a question of what average will
23:54
Speaker 3: it revert back to?
23:55
Speaker 4: Right, Right?
23:55
Speaker 2: If you've got data on this going back, you can
23:58
Speaker 2: you know, put to gather data on price to earnings
24:02
Speaker 2: ratios at least going back reliably to the nineteen forties.
24:06
Speaker 2: And so you also have to ask yourself, like, Okay,
24:08
Speaker 2: do I expect that valuations in US markets, given the
24:14
Speaker 2: state of the United States today and the position that
24:19
Speaker 2: it occupies, do I expect valuations to return to nineteen
24:23
Speaker 2: forty level averages or averages over the last ten years,
24:28
Speaker 2: last thirty years?
24:28
Speaker 3: What's the relevant time period?
24:30
Speaker 8: Right?
24:30
Speaker 5: The same thing we were having. I was having this
24:32
Speaker 5: conversation with a coworker the other day. Post nineteen seventy four,
24:35
Speaker 5: which is when the Arisa Act was signed in which
24:37
Speaker 5: is basically enabling for retirement plans to be developed throughout
24:41
Speaker 5: this country.
24:42
Speaker 2: And folks for seeing a whole bunch of purchases into
24:44
Speaker 2: stocks that happen every month.
24:46
Speaker 4: We just covered on the show yesterday.
24:48
Speaker 5: We have automatic enrollment in four one case, there's a
24:50
Speaker 5: huge swath of the population that is buying into the
24:52
Speaker 5: market every two weeks or however often. They're paid regardless
24:56
Speaker 5: of where valuations are, so the market dynamics are locked different.
25:00
Speaker 5: You also have the democrazation of finance where virtually anyone
25:06
Speaker 5: can open up a broker's account very readily and easily,
25:09
Speaker 5: compared to just even in the eighties and nineties where
25:12
Speaker 5: it was much more the traditional old school broker that
25:15
Speaker 5: you would work through. So the dynamics are different. Does
25:18
Speaker 5: that justify a different valuation metric on the market?
25:21
Speaker 4: That's all up for debate.
25:23
Speaker 2: What we can say fairly definitively is that throughout history,
25:28
Speaker 2: when valuations have gotten into this general territory hasn't spelled.
25:34
Speaker 2: It's really tough to say what that means for the
25:35
Speaker 2: next twelve months of returns, or the next six months
25:38
Speaker 2: or next thirty days, but it pretty definitively has on
25:42
Speaker 2: average meant lower average turns over the next decade. And
25:46
Speaker 2: that's about as comfortable as I am putting out there
25:50
Speaker 2: when we sit at levels like this, because guess what
25:53
Speaker 2: we were at these levels back in twenty twenty three.
25:55
Speaker 3: We were at these levels in twenty twenty one.
25:57
Speaker 2: Had you used it as a reason to say I'm
26:00
Speaker 2: going to divest of all of my stocks, it was
26:02
Speaker 2: a pretty bad idea. But I think the compelling piece
26:06
Speaker 2: to me would be, Okay, if I'm retiring today and
26:11
Speaker 2: I'm trying to build out a projection of how much
26:14
Speaker 2: is my portfolio going to earn and therefore how much
26:16
Speaker 2: of my portfolio can I spend every year, I would
26:19
Speaker 2: really hesitate to use the last ten years as my
26:23
Speaker 2: benchmark for what I expect the next ten years to
26:25
Speaker 2: look like. Definitely, that would be the really piece that
26:28
Speaker 2: I think hits home. And you know, I can tell
26:31
Speaker 2: you firsthand that those projections are really all that matters
26:37
Speaker 2: when it comes to someone's financial analysis as to whether
26:40
Speaker 2: or not your retirement plan is going to succeed, And
26:44
Speaker 2: it can differ a lot place to place, and if
26:47
Speaker 2: you're doing them on your own, I can understand why
26:49
Speaker 2: you would just say, oh, yeah, give me the last
26:50
Speaker 2: average of the ten years of the S and P
26:52
Speaker 2: five hundred Oh yeah, twelve plus percent. Okay, put that
26:55
Speaker 2: into my but you have to apply this a bit
26:58
Speaker 2: more critically, especially when we are.
27:01
Speaker 3: At levels that we have rarely seen before.
27:04
Speaker 2: And so that would be my compelling piece to you
27:08
Speaker 2: the listener is, have you thought about what happens to
27:12
Speaker 2: your retirement if equity markets barely squeak out a six
27:17
Speaker 2: percent annualized return over the next decade compared to you know,
27:21
Speaker 2: fifteen percent over the last what does that do to
27:25
Speaker 2: your overvaul financial scenario of Hey, the stock market did
27:28
Speaker 2: six and inflation did two, and here I am sitting
27:31
Speaker 2: in a very different place than I was for the
27:32
Speaker 2: last ten years. If you are just unsure about whether
27:37
Speaker 2: or not those projections have been done in your case?
27:40
Speaker 3: Are you? Are you unsure of what rate of return
27:43
Speaker 3: has been assumed in your own financial planning? Give the
27:47
Speaker 3: folks at Armstrong Advisory Group a call. Let us apply
27:49
Speaker 3: our expertise to your specific scenario to help you provide
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28:16
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
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Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
28:21
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
28:24
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
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Speaker 1: advisory services.
28:32
Speaker 2: Paul, The dollars had its worst start to a year
28:35
Speaker 2: since nineteen seventy three. The value of the dollar has
28:38
Speaker 2: depreciated some ten percent compared to a basket of other currencies.
28:42
Speaker 2: Many expect it to continue that path. Cause for concern
28:47
Speaker 2: or just a bit of normalization here, do you think?
28:50
Speaker 2: Because I'm landing on the normalization thing. We've had an
28:53
Speaker 2: extremely strong dollar for a few years now. Other countries'
28:58
Speaker 2: economies are recovery bring to some degree, we are weakening
29:02
Speaker 2: a bit in comparison, and so I don't think there's
29:04
Speaker 2: anything to be alarmed about here but a weakening dollar
29:07
Speaker 2: and the worst year for a dollar since seventy three
29:10
Speaker 2: certainly raises some questions.
29:12
Speaker 5: Noteworthy, but I would lean sort of what you were
29:14
Speaker 5: mentioning to perhaps just a bit of normalization. What does
29:17
Speaker 5: this mean for listeners out there? This is helpful for
29:20
Speaker 5: US exporters, for those who are sending their goods to
29:24
Speaker 5: other countries across the world. It hurts people who are
29:27
Speaker 5: importing their products from other countries out there. And then theoretically,
29:31
Speaker 5: you would think that it could weaken international demand if
29:34
Speaker 5: all of a sudden the dollar is weaker relative to
29:36
Speaker 5: their currency.
29:37
Speaker 2: And I want to play that as to why that matters. Again,
29:39
Speaker 2: I mean, the US dollar is the reserve, right. If
29:43
Speaker 2: you're a foreign central bank, you hold dollars to stabilize
29:45
Speaker 2: your overall financial system. You might own some gold too,
29:48
Speaker 2: you might own some euros, But if you are a
29:50
Speaker 2: foreign central bank, or if you are a large company
29:54
Speaker 2: operating anywhere in the world, you hold a whole bunch
29:56
Speaker 2: of dollars to stabilize things and make sure that you
29:58
Speaker 2: can get through those dollars that you are holding, usually
30:02
Speaker 2: through treasuries or some other instrument. But if those dollars
30:04
Speaker 2: you are holding suddenly depreciate by ten percent, it's not
30:09
Speaker 2: a problem if it happened once.
30:11
Speaker 3: Happens once.
30:11
Speaker 2: But generally speaking, you're holding the dollars because they've been
30:15
Speaker 2: stable forever, right, And if that stability gets questioned, that's
30:20
Speaker 2: the thing that you get worried about, because if the
30:22
Speaker 2: stability gets called into question, that's where some of those
30:26
Speaker 2: will say, well, maybe I'd better hold some gold instead,
30:30
Speaker 2: or some euros instead, or some Chinese you want, Probably not,
30:34
Speaker 2: but you get my point that the system that we
30:37
Speaker 2: operate under is important for US Americans to have a
30:42
Speaker 2: strong dollar so that we are still that reserve currency
30:46
Speaker 2: across the globe. And you know, at ten percent move
30:49
Speaker 2: in six months is not necessarily what you like to see.
30:52
Speaker 2: But given the appreciation of the last few years, I
30:54
Speaker 2: don't think it's something to light our hair on fire.
30:56
Speaker 3: Over.
30:57
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back. Stack
31:00
Speaker 2: Roulette is next.
31:02
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32:10
Speaker 3: Time for a bit of stack row. Let hear, Paul,
32:13
Speaker 3: what do you have for us?
32:14
Speaker 5: I want to talk a little robots with you, Mike.
32:17
Speaker 5: Amazon is on the cusp of using more robots than
32:20
Speaker 5: humans in its warehouses. Amazon employees one point five to
32:24
Speaker 5: six million people. The majority of those employees are in
32:28
Speaker 5: their warehouses. They are on the cusp of having over
32:32
Speaker 5: a million robots in some of their warehouses out there,
32:37
Speaker 5: and it's just an area that for me has been
32:40
Speaker 5: of interest. Just have a friend who is going to
32:43
Speaker 5: be working at a startup that is looking to develop
32:46
Speaker 5: robots that would be able to do more sophisticated tasks
32:50
Speaker 5: and have the ability to be I guess more similar
32:53
Speaker 5: to a human in terms of being able to make
32:55
Speaker 5: calculate decisions and interpret things out there. And so these
32:59
Speaker 5: robots here have developed a long way where you've seen.
33:02
Speaker 2: Which human is the biggest threat to its existence and
33:04
Speaker 2: to eliminate terminator.
33:07
Speaker 5: But these ones here are able to increase the productivity
33:11
Speaker 5: of Amazon in their warehouses a just incredible speeds. They've
33:14
Speaker 5: got one down in Shreeport, Louisiana that has majority it
33:19
Speaker 5: has certainly humans working there, but the productivity gains have
33:22
Speaker 5: been significant. And of course, whenever you bring up these issues,
33:25
Speaker 5: the concern is that it's going to displace human employees.
33:29
Speaker 5: It seems that's ultimately probably Amazon's goal. And as much
33:35
Speaker 5: as you don't like taking away jobs from people, productivity
33:38
Speaker 5: gains are what you need to have economic growth over
33:42
Speaker 5: the longer term, and ultimately it's just going to be
33:45
Speaker 5: a retraining and restaffing of employees. But this seems like
33:48
Speaker 5: a sector it's been for decades that they've been trying
33:52
Speaker 5: to sort of break the wall that they're able to
33:54
Speaker 5: operate these Amazon robots and warehouses. Having them in just
33:58
Speaker 5: you know, day to day for outside of the confines
34:02
Speaker 5: of a case area from a warehouse, that seems to
34:04
Speaker 5: be what's aimed for the next ten years. Just like
34:06
Speaker 5: a Thomas Vehicles was an area that was trying to
34:09
Speaker 5: be developed over the last ten or fifteen years. It
34:11
Speaker 5: can take longer than anticipated.
34:13
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of what makes Amazon so perfect
34:17
Speaker 2: for automation to take over.
34:19
Speaker 3: There's a few things.
34:20
Speaker 2: One, a lot of the stuff that can be automated
34:23
Speaker 2: is not in view of the end customer. I think
34:26
Speaker 2: that's actually pretty important, right, Like, there's a lot of
34:30
Speaker 2: concern about this, and if it's all being done in
34:33
Speaker 2: a warehouse that you or I never see, I think
34:36
Speaker 2: people are generally more comfortable with that. Then the idea
34:38
Speaker 2: of a robot's going to bring you your food to
34:41
Speaker 2: the dinner table, yes, or you're going to use a
34:44
Speaker 2: self check out kiosk at the grocery store. There's you know,
34:47
Speaker 2: just generally more acceptance of this robotics technology when's behind
34:51
Speaker 2: closed doors.
34:52
Speaker 4: Because you can control that environment.
34:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I don't really have to think
34:58
Speaker 2: about it.
34:58
Speaker 3: Well, if I'm opposed to taking humans jobs, well.
35:01
Speaker 2: I never see it anyway. So it's behind, you know,
35:03
Speaker 2: out of sight, out of mind. Two, it's the same
35:05
Speaker 2: thing over and over, take product off shehelf, put in box,
35:10
Speaker 2: attached shipping label. So you know there are you know,
35:13
Speaker 2: differences here obviously you you know, different sized packages, different
35:17
Speaker 2: you know, different places they need to go.
35:20
Speaker 3: But it's a very repeatable task.
35:22
Speaker 2: I guess with that in mind, what are the other
35:25
Speaker 2: sectors where this is likely to happen? And I mean
35:28
Speaker 2: outside of you know, delivery and warehouses. I know fast
35:32
Speaker 2: food has been talked about, but honestly a few things
35:36
Speaker 2: here and there. I guess you automate. You know, one
35:38
Speaker 2: of them might be the drive through counter where you
35:39
Speaker 2: don't actually see a person. You know, if you can
35:42
Speaker 2: have some of the cooking tasks done by robotics at
35:44
Speaker 2: at a McDonald's, I could see that being useful. But
35:48
Speaker 2: it's not the same thing as Amazon, where you have
35:50
Speaker 2: this big controlled warehouse that's handling such a volume of things.
35:53
Speaker 2: When it's dispersed through a McDonald's. I don't know that
35:55
Speaker 2: there's the same level of automation ability there.
35:59
Speaker 3: I think of.
36:01
Speaker 2: You know, data transcription data, you know, stuff that is
36:05
Speaker 2: the same task over and over of data input into
36:09
Speaker 2: an Excel spreadsheet, things along those lines where you wouldn't
36:11
Speaker 2: be interacting with an end customer. I feel like there's
36:14
Speaker 2: a lot of you know, robotics and automation that can
36:16
Speaker 2: apply there as well. But I'll be interested to see
36:19
Speaker 2: what comes next, I guess would be my point.
36:21
Speaker 5: You know, healthcare has been one that has been mentioned
36:24
Speaker 5: where they would be utilized within hospitals, but as you mentioned,
36:28
Speaker 5: the kind of old frontier of robotics is in the warehouses.
36:32
Speaker 5: That's that's not news. I mean, Amazon has been using
36:34
Speaker 5: these for decades, but it's trying to get them into
36:37
Speaker 5: areas where there's variability in what can happen, where you
36:40
Speaker 5: can have people rushing for an emergency to change cause
36:44
Speaker 5: the robot to change directions and things like that. So
36:46
Speaker 5: it's it's all exciting stuff. Probably years away from making
36:50
Speaker 5: mainstream impact in there. Obviously, it is going to be
36:52
Speaker 5: the hurdle of overcoming you know, people's perceptions to it. Vacuums.
36:56
Speaker 5: They've done a little bit of at least commercialization there.
36:59
Speaker 5: The rumors have become really popular, but that's far away
37:03
Speaker 5: from the idea of it folding your laundry or something
37:07
Speaker 5: like that.
37:08
Speaker 2: Your July fourth burgers are going to cost more than
37:11
Speaker 2: ever as beef prices are hitting a new record. Hence
37:14
Speaker 2: why we at my July fourth party are doing a
37:16
Speaker 2: full pig roast, so dodge that bullet, but your your
37:21
Speaker 2: beef patties are going to be hitting a new record,
37:23
Speaker 2: so apologies and a little way to sour on it.
37:28
Speaker 2: I've also seen that we are going to be seeing
37:30
Speaker 2: the heaviest July fourth traffic volume that we have ever seen,
37:35
Speaker 2: or at least travel volume of domestic travel.
37:38
Speaker 5: I'm almost always on every July because of vacations in
37:42
Speaker 5: every year we do there no.
37:45
Speaker 3: Beef prices are at all time high.
37:46
Speaker 4: It's record.
37:48
Speaker 3: It's the same story.
37:49
Speaker 5: Triple A always comes out and says there's gonna be
37:51
Speaker 5: more drivers this year. It's a lock, and prices are
37:55
Speaker 5: going up to that's been a lock. But I'm going
37:57
Speaker 5: to argue that the price increase. I think it was
38:00
Speaker 5: only one three cents differential for the average cookout for
38:03
Speaker 5: ten people this year versus last year.
38:05
Speaker 4: So Hey, sunny.
38:06
Speaker 2: Inflation markets are in mixed territory, with the Dow up
38:10
Speaker 2: nearly a percent SMP and Nazdak negative territory. We'll be
38:13
Speaker 2: back at it tomorrow with a full recap. Have a
38:15
Speaker 2: great day, folks,