Latest / Earn Your Leisure / Warning: This Oil Price Trigger Will CRASH The Market
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Let's talk about oil. We will be talking about Iran
- 0:02Speaker 1: in a little bit. We didn't talk about Iran yet.
- 0:04Speaker 1: But what what price of oil becomes dangerous with stocks.
- 0:08Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are talking about eighty dollars.
- 0:11Speaker 1: That isn't the number. The number is ninety three dollars
- 0:14Speaker 1: and fifty cent.
- 0:15Speaker 2: If we get to that level, it will start to
- 0:19Speaker 2: have some negative effects in the economy. I know people
- 0:23Speaker 2: have been asking about it oil trade and how do
- 0:25Speaker 2: I play oil features. It's too late, but said an alert,
- 0:31Speaker 2: if we get to ninety three fifty, it will give
- 0:34Speaker 2: you a reason to be concerned about how stocks are
- 0:38Speaker 2: going to perform, how the economy is going to go.
- 0:41Speaker 2: The higher the oil prices usually the worst the economy does.
- 0:44Speaker 2: So eighty is not that it's like a snooze alarm.
- 0:47Speaker 2: It's the first alarm to put on, but it's not
- 0:50Speaker 2: the real level. Ninety three dollars and fifty cent is
- 0:52Speaker 2: a real level that you need to worry about. If
- 0:54Speaker 2: we get there, you'll have some pushback and contraction in
- 0:57Speaker 2: the market long term.
- 1:00Speaker 3: That's crazy. You had ninety I was going higher. I
- 1:03Speaker 3: was going higher.
- 1:04Speaker 4: I had I had it at between one ten and
- 1:06Speaker 4: one twenty based on historically, like the historical data, if
- 1:10Speaker 4: you look at any reception that's tied to oil, seventy
- 1:13Speaker 4: three oil embargo, seventy nine, Iranian revolution in two thousand
- 1:18Speaker 4: and eight, oil was at one hundred and forty seven dollars.
- 1:21Speaker 4: In twenty twenty two we were at one thirty, although
- 1:24Speaker 4: it was short lived. Remember that one month we had
- 1:27Speaker 4: crew that was nex that was crazy negative. Yeah, so
- 1:31Speaker 4: like one one ten to one twenty with that, that's
- 1:33Speaker 4: that's cautionary, that's red flag. That means gas prices will
- 1:38Speaker 4: be surging, right, consumer spending will fall, Uh, Inflation will
- 1:42Speaker 4: be the conversation.
- 1:45Speaker 3: In that time.
- 1:46Speaker 4: And most importantly, and this is important, and this is
- 1:49Speaker 4: why I'm bullish in twenty twenty six and I was
- 1:54Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five, corporate earnings will start to fall
- 1:59Speaker 4: because the.
- 2:00Speaker 3: Margins they get above that level. If they get above
- 2:02Speaker 3: that level, for sure, oh yeah, corporate earnings.
- 2:05Speaker 4: And so if you looked every earnings, if you look,
- 2:08Speaker 4: I mean, I think in twenty twenty five, seventy nine
- 2:12Speaker 4: percent of the S and P had positive earnings growth
- 2:17Speaker 4: for the year. Right, we're off to a pretty similar start,
- 2:20Speaker 4: I know, stocks have pulled back and companies are pulled back,
- 2:22Speaker 4: but if you look at their earnings growth, they're all
- 2:25Speaker 4: making they're still making money. We start seeing oiling those levels,
- 2:29Speaker 4: that changes, and that's that's dangerous, right, And that's those
- 2:32Speaker 4: are the things we can't control. Like when we foresee
- 2:34Speaker 4: these things, we can't control that, right, Those having a
- 2:38Speaker 4: conflict start in the war, that's we can't.
- 2:43Speaker 3: Right, we don't have a say in that, right.
- 2:45Speaker 2: But we knew it was going to come because he
- 2:46Speaker 2: was like war heavy president. And once you have investment
- 2:50Speaker 2: in Halliburton, pallenteer LC, you know he's going to lean
- 2:56Speaker 2: and use that, especially as some information come out.
- 3:00Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean even if you followed the chessboard, right
- 3:04Speaker 4: like Venezuela, what did we take from them? I ran,
- 3:08Speaker 4: what do they have that can help contribute to what
- 3:10Speaker 4: we took from Venezuela?
- 3:12Speaker 3: Allegedly? The writing is the writing is there.
- 3:16Speaker 4: But if we get to like I said, if we
- 3:17Speaker 4: get to those levels one twenty, that's.
- 3:20Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, we got it.
- 3:22Speaker 4: Yeah, we gotta be mindful and then we start to
- 3:24Speaker 4: see maybe the vicspike again. We talked about the VIX
- 3:26Speaker 4: and RSR last week. Vic starts and it got up
- 3:29Speaker 4: to twenty five today, drop back down. But if it
- 3:31Speaker 4: starts getting in that twenty five thirty range, okay.
- 3:35Speaker 3: Someone else?
- 3:36Speaker 2: Can I tell you why I came up with the
- 3:37Speaker 2: number of ninety three fifty. If you get your tickets
- 3:40Speaker 2: to invest Fest and not doing a presentation, I will
- 3:42Speaker 2: tell you why those levels are so important.
- 3:44Speaker 3: Go to invest Fest dot com see you there. Dot
- 3:48Speaker 3: Com vip Night black Tie this year