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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 08 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix Hill and welcome to this pre-market live stream, or shall we say, therapy session, for today, markets are doing its thing and I want to make sure that you are the best informed investor out there.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand what's actually causing this sell-off.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I want to separate facts from mainstream media fiction, give you a word of caution and that's important but I also want to show you how you can maximize this opportunity.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: But first smash the like button.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: And I asked you a question in the live stream here.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I asked you why do you think people struggle with investing?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: You haven't done the poll yet, or even if you have just answer it in the chat, why do you think public people struggle with investing?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Is it A?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Is it lack of opportunities?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: You think there is not enough opportunities out there in the market?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: That's why people struggle with it?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: If you think it's that, put an A in the chat.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Or do you think it's because people haven't learned how to maximize the opportunities out there?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Do you think it is that?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: If you think people haven't learned how to do it, then put B in the chat, or yes, so A if you think it's a lack of opportunities, b if you think we haven't been taught which one?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: And let me know which one you think it is James, mike, carl, you're saying B, b, b, b.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: People struggle because they haven't found Winston yet.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: That's true, okay, mostly Bs, mostly Bs, okay, almost.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, everybody's putting B in there, right, and you know what?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I think you're right.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: People haven't learned, and one of the reasons people are afraid to learn I mean, we can talk about the scandal of why, you know, wall Street essentially pays politicians to make sure you don't learn and all that, but that isn't actually going to get us anywhere, right, we can always lament and point at people who are, like you know, holding us back in a sense, but the real reason I think people are afraid to learn is this Fund managers underperformed the market massively and I had a little chart here for that somewhere.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Where did my chart go?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Here it is.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: This is fund managers, fund managers in 2024, 36% of them outperformed the market.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: That means 74% failed.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Right, should be fired, strung up, thrown off a ledge.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: And people look at that and they go.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Well, if the fund managers can't beat the market, what hope do I have in making my money work for me?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Well, I should just leave the professionals to it because they have a 74% failure rate.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: But what very few people understand is this and this is very important.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: I mean you might literally want to write this down.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: It is the following Fund managers, big funds, have a problem, and what's the problem?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: They have too much money.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Why is that a problem?
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: When I spot an opportunity of a stock and I shared some just in our stock trading community, or I had a brokerage open here just now, this is a really small portfolio I'm running and I want to show people how they can make money.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: We're up 36% so far on this just buying a couple of stocks, one a week or something like that.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Right, this opportunity here, foa, which is up 228%?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Right, they can't buy that opportunity, and I'll tell you why.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: If they did, they'd make the stock move too much because they have too much money.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: They'd have to put billions into it and the stock's only worth a couple of billion the whole company.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So when they sell, they would crash the market.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So they can't take advantage of these opportunities.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So we retail investors, we have a massive, massive, massive.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Is it 64%?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: You see, bankers and maths.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: You see You're quite right, thank you.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: We as retail investors, though, in all seriousness, have a massive advantage over funds because we can take advantage of so many opportunities out there.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: We know how to do it that Wall Street just can't touch.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: If you have a big, massive fund, you're basically stuck to buying the magnificent seven stocks, because you can put a billion into Apple and it won't move the stock very much.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: You put a billion into anything else and the stock goes up 100%, and then you sell and it goes to zero, right?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So you just can't do it.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So you have this unique setup that actually makes your job much, much easier than the job of fund managers.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: It's really hard as a fund manager to beat the market as an individual you and me I think it's surprisingly easy, really surprisingly easy.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So you might want to do something about that.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: So what are you going to do about that?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Well, if you want to learn how I do it, if you want to learn what I learned and I learned this from my mentors over the last 20 years then three rules how we spot the breakouts, and we spotted a couple today.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: I bought one yesterday as well, and all you got to do is what you got to sit down for a little while, watch my free masterclass, take some notes and actually take it seriously and invest a little bit in yourself in terms of time, right, the masterclass is free.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: So who's going to do that?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Who's going to watch the masterclass?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: If you're going to watch the masterclass, put a smiley in the chat and if you are not going to watch it I don't know buzz off.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I suppose I can't help you.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Foxgaming, thanks very much for posting the link there as well in the chat, which he just did.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I'll pin it to the top of the chat as well.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: It's also in the description down below, if you can find it there.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Let's look at what's driving the market today, because a lot of people are feeling fearful right now, and I understand that.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I want to do something about that.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: By the way, it's not that bad.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is recovering a little bit.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Microsoft's green, google, apple, tesla down a little bit, but we're not seeing any cataclysmic drops off here.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So lots of smileys.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: And if you've watched it a few times already, then that's also very good.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: And Raptor, my friend, you're practicing that demo account.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, keep doing that, keep doing that.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Bravo.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: What did I spot today?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Let me show you.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'll share it with you.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I actually haven't posted in the community yet, so sometimes you guys get it here first, not usually.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: It is KMDA.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Kmda is the ticker here, that one there, kmda, and I only nibbled a little bit at it.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I think I'll nibble some more today, but it doesn't mean you should buy it.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: But if you understand what I'm talking about, you can judge yourself.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Kmda, it's an Israeli stock, whether you like that sort of thing or not.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Now let me explain to you why the market is wobbling the way it is.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Trump speech yesterday was interesting and I think a lot of people are like oh my God, who's this madman?
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: You spot on a lot of things there.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: The Greenland thing makes a heck of a lot of sense, but okay, this is what the market is freaking out about.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: So we have in red and green here can we get a green pen?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: In red and green?
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: We have the 10-year yield of the 10-year bonds.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: That's basically the interest rate okay, interest rate, and that's gone up from not a lot in 2021, but basically zero to now 4.7%.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: That's pretty high.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: The last time we were at such levels pre this cycle was when it was here.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It was in 2008.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Now, what happened in 2008 to the market?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: I have to zoom in a little bit here for you to see that this is the NASDAQ down here.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: This is Q, q and Q, and the market dropped 50% minus 50% when we hit that 5% approximately interest rate.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: When we hit that 5% approximately interest rate.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So that's what the market is freaking out about Now.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: You'd have to be an idiot not to remember that in 2008, the US housing market collapsed because it was a great act of corruption on the part of the rating agencies that made that happen.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So the NASDAQ has ignored these high rates, really right there and there it has continued to soar.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So people are worried it's going to undo that.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: That's ultimately what this is about.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: It's about these interest rates, a bunch of factors that feed into those interest rates.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: We don't need to really understand it in that much detail.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: A lot of government debt is a problem, so people are thinking that Donald is going to add a lot more debt.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I think, yes, tax cuts will do that, but the real question is can they deliver on the spending cuts?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: That's going to be the real test of this.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: And people are worried about inflation, I'm worried about deflation, but that's a whole other story.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So this is the main story.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: There is nonsense and noise out there Yesterday and this is actually really important and I totally get it.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: If you look at this and you think all this economic data it sounds complicated, then you'd be right.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: It is somewhat complicated.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Do you need to understand all these nuances to make money?
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: No, actually you don't.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: You just need to understand how to read charts.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: That's really the most simplistic way of making money, but I enjoy this kind of thing and I think it gives me a little bit of extra information to time my stuff a little bit better.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: So I want to explain it to you as an old economist here.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So we got yesterday job opening data out and we were expecting there to be about 7.8 million jobs.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: This was the expectation.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, 7.7 rather, that was the expectation and we got 8.1 million basically.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So we got more jobs openings and you might think it's not a wonderful thing all these jobs being created.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Look how strong the economy is.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Well, yes and no, because what it means is that we get less rate cuts, because the Fed is not under so much pressure to cut interest rates if the economy is doing really well.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So in a weird world, we actually want the economy to slow down so we get more interest rate cuts, which means the stock market does better.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: It's a really weird world, isn't it?
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Is that a little bit clear?
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: If that's a little bit clear to you, put a one in the chat so I can get some feedback whether I'm just talking to myself or whether this actually helps.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Now, the data we just got out this morning, like less than an hour ago.