Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Just Baseball | MLB | 9/2/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Just Baseball | MLB | 9/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad. But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: San Francisco-Pittsburgh, that was just a disaster. I mean, that
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: was over immediately. I mean, it's easy to take a
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: loss like that because it's just dead immediately. Paul Skeens
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: was awful, and then Logan Webb started pitching poorly on
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: the other side. The bullpens were terrible, and it wound
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: up being a ridiculous 13-12 win, I think, from Pittsburgh. Ridiculous.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: We did get the overcorrect with Milwaukee-Chicago. It was kind
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: of low scoring early, but Milwaukee... was able to get
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: a bunch of runs on the board somewhere kind of
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: in the middle of the game. And then at that point,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: I felt pretty good about it. And it did happen. Milwaukee,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: I believe with a nine to four win was the
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: final on that one, nine to five, something like that.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: So we got that one correct. And the other one
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: pushed at the last minute, which I'm pissed about Philly, Arizona.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: That one was a little bit of a roller coaster.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: The full game, by the way, wound up going over
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: by a half run. I'm pretty sure it landed eight.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: So if you played the under seven and a half,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: it would have been a loss. First five was a push.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Right out of the gate, Erod was bad. I think
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: he gave up two runs in the first inning. That
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: wasn't good, but he settled down, and then it was just,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: the game was kind of cruising, and Luzardo was definitely
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: cruising through it. Philly put up one more run, I think,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: and it was 3-0, going into the bottom of the fifth.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, just avoid the run here. Luzardo, come on, man.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: One more clean inning here. Nope, he gave up a run,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: and it wound up being a push there. And that
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: was the only run that Arizona scored in the game, too.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: So I don't think it was the wrong call. In
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: that one, it just is what it is. We move
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: on to today. I don't know if I like this
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: card today. I mean, it was slim pickings here. I
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: think the best play that I have is not even
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: being agreed with by the market. I don't even know, man.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: But hold on. I'm going to share my screen here.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: All right. Let's get into this. Only baseball today, but
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: football returns tomorrow, so we have college football returning tomorrow.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: I've got to start digging into that, and it'll be
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: a smaller baseball board tomorrow. I don't know if I'm
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: going to have any college football plays tomorrow. I mean,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we'll have any baseball plays either,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: but all right. Baseball, we have a bunch of afternoon
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: action here because it's Wednesday, so some of these series
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: are finishing. San Diego at Cincinnati. Cincinnati. We had a
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: win with San Diego in the first game of the series.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati bounced back and won yesterday, which I did kind
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: of lean that way. It was a close win, so
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: these teams have split the series so far. San Diego
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: probably has somewhat more motivation because they're actually trying to
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. Cincinnati is not. San Diego does have
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: a better bullpen here. They used four guys yesterday. Cincinnati
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: used three, although one of the guys that pitched for
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: San Diego only threw one pitch. San Diego is number
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: eight in bullpen whip, but I think they're better than that.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: They're a top-five bullpen, as I keep saying. Cincinnati is not.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: They're 25th. San Diego is probably the better offensive team
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: at this point in the season as well. They're 23rd,
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati 24th, but San Diego's been better since the All-Star break,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: and I think San Diego does have the better starting
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: pitcher going here, too, with Casey Mize, who they picked
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: up at the All-Star, or at the trade deadline, excuse me. 3.45
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: ERA for him, 1.1 whip on the season. That includes
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: all of his action with Detroit this year. He was
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: getting a lot of action, man. He is not quite
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: as good on the road, though. 3.9 road ERA. Still
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: not bad, though, and he's pitching fine. I mean, he
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: had one really bad start with San Diego after they
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: got him, and three out of the last four starts
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: have been fairly good, though, except it is a little
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: bit of a red flag, though, that his strikeout rate
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: has been really low in the last two of them,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: although he pitched well enough recently. That they were kind
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: of hanging in that game against Tampa. And then I
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: think the bullpen actually... No, it wasn't the bullpen. It
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: was the fielding actually unraveled behind Mize in that one.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Like five of the runs were unearned. So I don't
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: think it was really his fault. But his strikeout walk
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: ratio is concerning right now. In the month of August
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: it was. Because he just wasn't striking anybody out anymore.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: He does have a low hit rate. He does have
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: a low walk rate. His strikeout rate is... a little
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: bit worse than it was before because of this recent stretch.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: He's got a good strikeout walk ratio, though, because he
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: hardly walks anybody. His strikeout per nine is still reasonable.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: It's at eight. But yeah, strikeout walk ratio in the
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: threes is fine enough. Cincinnati only has three hitters to
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: have faced, and the only hit is a single from Trevino.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: They're one for six often with two strikeouts, no walks.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: So he is unfamiliar to them, and The guys that
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: have faced him haven't really had any success, so I
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: think he should do okay here. Brandon Williamson will make
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: his return for Cincinnati here. I don't know if he
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: was in the minors or if he was injured or
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: what the deal was with him. I think he missed
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: all of last year with an injury. Yeah, last year
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: plus most of 2024, I guess, because he pitched fairly
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: well in 2024, and he was reasonable. He was okay
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: in 2023. which was his first season in the majors.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: So I think injuries have kind of derailed him here.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Does not have good numbers this year in six starts, 6.11 ERA, 1.64 whip.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: He was really bad in his home starts, 10.03 home ERA,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't pitched since April. But yes, he was
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: definitely struggling. He only had like one or two, excuse me,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: actual good starts in here. Both of them actually came
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: on the road against Miami and Minnesota. He has more
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: walks than strikeouts. I mean, that's not good. His hit
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: rate is mediocre at best. So these numbers that he's
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: put up so far this season, I mean, they're unsustainably bad,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: I would say, but it's not great. He's got a
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: one strikeout walk ratio. It's actually less than one, actually.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: He has more walks than strikeouts. And his strikeout per
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: nine is way low in the sixes, but it's a
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: small sample size. San Diego has a small sample size
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: against him. Four hitters have faced him. 250 average, 625 OPS,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: and eight at-bats. One strikeout, no walks. I think we
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: just have to lead San Diego here. I mean, the
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: price is not going to be that great, though. I
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: think the money is agreeing with that. 77% of tickets,
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: 91% of the cash on them. You're going to get
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, the better offense,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: the better overall team with probably more motivation. So San
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Diego makes sense, but you do have to lay like
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: minus 150 with them on the road here. It is
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: a bit of a price, especially that Mize does have
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: his red flags here. Money's also coming in towards the under.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Total's at nine and a half, so it is a
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: pretty high total. I don't know. I think there might
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: be some more indicators towards an over in this one.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: Just the form of these pitchers just doesn't seem great,
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: although Williamson, I guess you might be able to argue
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: he's a veteran coming back from injury at this point,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: and sometimes those guys pitch better. I just don't want
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: to deal with the game, but I think the best
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Way to play it is probably to play San Diego
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: in some way, like make your own minus-one run line,
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: I guess, or something like that. At least they'll bat
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: in the ninth inning, and it's a more hitter-friendly ballpark
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: and expected to be a higher-scoring game in that one.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Atlanta at Washington. This is, I guess, just a two-game series.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I don't really know what the deal is with this.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: It looks like these teams aren't playing tomorrow or whatever.
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: Washington won yesterday, so I think Atlanta's lost two in
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: a row. Washington with a 9-5 win yesterday. Washington does
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: not have a good bullpen, though. They used two guys
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday. Atlanta used three. Atlanta is
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: ranked fourth in bullpen, probably about where they really are.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Washington is 26th, not a good bullpen. Washington is a
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: good offense. They're number two. So they're still moving along
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: on offense here and maintaining these offensive numbers. Atlanta is,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: where are they? They've been kind of up and down
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: this year offensively. They're number 11 right now, tied with Houston.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Grant Holmes pitching for Atlanta. He's not as good as
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: his ERA makes him look. 3.71 ERA, 1.34 whip is
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: not really that good, but he's been a lot better
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: on the road this year. 2.79 road ERA with a
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: way lower opponent batting average on the road. So he
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: pitches better on the road. He's had a low strikeout
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: rate recently, though, and he's kind of walking too many guys.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: So even though he looks okay, he's not allowing many
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: runs recently in most of his starts here basically all
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: of them except this recent start against Arizona which came
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: at home his strikeout walk ratio really ugly in August
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: though 16 to 10 that's not good his hit rate
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: on the season is pretty good his walk rate is
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: too high his strikeout rate is kind of low So
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: his strikeout walk ratio is not going to be very good. No,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: it's below two, which is bad. His strikeout per nine
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: has also taken a dip this year. It's in the
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: sevens as opposed to the nines. Holmes really isn't, I
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: don't know, it doesn't seem like he has his best
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: stuff out there this year, man, for the most part. Washington,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: the numbers against him from Washington are kind of all
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: over the place. Like they don't hit him for contact,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: 217 average, but they've had four home runs off him.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: So they have a 793 OPS against him. 14-2 strikeout
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: walk ratio in 46 at bat. It's a good strikeout
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. It's just when they manage to connect with him,
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: they're hitting him for power. I don't know. I don't
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: exactly love Holmes here. Jackson Kent is on the other side,
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: the young pitcher for Washington. He has not been good
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: so far. 5.59 ERA, 1.71 whip. He might turn it
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: around at some point. He does have good numbers at
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: home at least, 3.27 home ERA. Did have his best
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: start of the season last time out at home, which
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: is his rookie season here, but he still walked four
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: guys in that outing. So even though he held Miami
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: to one run, the second time Miami faced him, maybe
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: he made adjustments to the first time. I will say
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: it looks like he is improving, so you got to
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: give him that. But his numbers across the board here
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: don't look very good. The hit rate's not that good.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: The walk rate is really high. 17 to 15 strikeout
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is no good. He gets a lot of
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: ground balls. it looks like, which helps him get out
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: of these jams, but you can't have a strikeout walk
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: ratio at one. That's just unacceptable. You're not going to
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: be able to pitch in the majors doing that for
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: very long, and his strikeout per nine is eight, which
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: isn't too bad. Atlanta's never seen him, so he does
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: have unfamiliarity here, which might give him a little bit
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: of an edge, but I'm thinking maybe the over makes
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: sense in this one. The over hit yesterday, so I
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: was correct about that one yesterday. It wasn't a play
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: or anything. I don't want to make this a play either,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: but the over looks like it's getting the money here.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's the strongest market read in this game.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: The total's at nine. It's going up to nine and
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: a half, actually, so that's a key number. To get
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: off that key number of nine and add the half
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: run to it is actually kind of a big move.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: So I think the money is actually coming in on
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: the over here, and I don't disagree with it. Although
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: it looks like Brad Lord is actually opening this game.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: So if you're going to play this game, I would
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: play Holmes must start, pick him, but don't pick Washington starter.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: I think Lord will open, and then it will probably
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: be Kent after that, I guess. But either way, I
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: think the over is the right way to look. Although
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Lord has screwed me multiple times, but 61% of tickets,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: 85% of the cash on the over, excuse me. And
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's getting some of the money here, although they're public.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: 80% of tickets, 87% of the cash on Atlanta. I mean,
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: it does look like a bounce-back spot for Atlanta. They
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: probably have a little bit more to play for because
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: they're a playoff team here and they want to maintain that.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: But Washington could play spoiler here, to some extent at least.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: You're looking at about a minus 160 on Atlanta. I mean,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't do that. The price seems way too high
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: just with Holmes here. As the pitcher, I mean, I
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: don't know. I still think over would be my preference
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: in that one. Garrett, what's up? You're going to play
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: the over? Uh-huh. I think Skeens is hurt, man, or something.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Skeens was elite the last two years, dude. So, I mean,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: I do not agree with that. Like, he's one of
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: the best pitchers in baseball. It's just, there's something off
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: with his stuff right now. I don't know what else
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: to tell you. Like... That's been the case for most
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: of his recent starts, except the previous one, he was
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: throwing like 100 again. Last night, he didn't have it
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: at all. I don't know what to tell you. Yeah,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's something wrong with him right now, and
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: I think next year he's going to be very good again.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: All right. A's in Texas. Texas is on the verge
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: of a sweep here, which Texas... They're definitely motivated. They're
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: trying to win their division here and make the playoffs,
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: so they're definitely going to be motivated. But they might
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: overlook the A's in the last game of the series
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: because that's just sometimes what happens. They might not have
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: total focus on a bad A's team here. The A's
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: might step up their motivation a little bit. Texas has
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: a pretty big series against Tampa Bay coming up, which
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: will be a game against one of the division leaders,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: I should say, coming up next. So the spot... Does
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: not favor Texas here. I think the spot favors the
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: A's in this one. Do I really want to back
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: the A's? Not really, and I definitely would not back
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: their bullpen. Their bullpen is terrible. They used five relief
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: pitchers in the game yesterday. Texas used four. I don't
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: like either bullpen, but the A's have the worst bullpen
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: in baseball. And finally, the rankings have them there. Arranging
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: it by whip. They're tied with Kansas City for the
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: worst whip, but their ERA is worse, and they're finally
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: there as far as how the sorting works. Texas hasn't
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: been a great bullpen either this year. They're number 19.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're that trustworthy. A's are 15th offensively.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: Texas is 19th. A's might have a slight edge there.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Jacob Lopez getting the start for the A's. He's very streaky.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: He's hard to predict. He's had not a great season. 4.82 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: He's better on the road to some extent, though, because
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: pitching in the A's stadium is usually not easy. 4.53
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: road ERA. Those opponent batting averages are actually higher on
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: the road. His current form is good, though. He had
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: a 35-8 strikeout walk ratio in 2019. august and allowed
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: two or fewer runs in every start actually going all
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: the way back into basically mid-july here so he's in
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: good form right now and he's kind of maintaining that
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: even though his walk rate went up a little bit
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: again in his last start he might be backable in
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: the current form that he's in although i don't fully
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: trust him he's got a decent hit rate his walk
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: rate's too high strikeout rate is okay So strikeout walk
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: ratio is still not good. I mean, it's below 2.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: The amount of walks is just bad. Strikeout per 9,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: getting close to 9, that's not bad. Numbers against Texas
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: are not excellent. In 41 at-bats, 244 average, but a
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: 762 OPS, a little bit high. In 12-10, strikeout walk
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: ratio is not that good. I mean, that's not good.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if I really want to trust
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: Lopez here. Cody Bradford on the other side for Texas.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: Probably the better pitcher, but his 3.42 ERA is misleading
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: right now because his whip is actually pretty bad, 1.52.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: He's been a good pitcher in the past, and he's
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: trying to come back from injury here. So I think
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: generally just top level, Bradford, I think he is the
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: better pitcher over Lopez here. But in the current form,
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not entirely sure. Bradford has a 1.86 home ERA
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: this year, but his opponent batting average is bad at 300.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: So again, his ERA.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Makes him look better than he's pitched so far. He's
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: had a really low strikeout rate so far. He's given
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: up too many hits. He's not walking anybody, but he's
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: just been ridiculously hittable. And Texas has lost his last
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: four starts out of the five that he's made. So
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's fully back, man. You look at
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: what his numbers looked like back in 23 and 24.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: He had really, really good numbers. Good strikeout walk ratio.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: never really had issues with his command, but he was
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: striking out way more guys, allowing fewer hits. This time,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: things are not going well. He's allowing way too many hits.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: His strikeout walk ratio is way down in the twos.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: His strikeout per nine is actually like, it's like unacceptably low.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: It's below five. Like you don't even stick in the
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: majors if you have a strikeout per nine that's that low.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It's like unheard of pretty much. I know it's a
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: small sample size, but his history suggests that he should
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: get better at some point. Maybe it's a long process
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: coming back from injury, and they're going to leave him
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: in there because they don't really have other options, and
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: he's not allowing that many runs. His numbers are not
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: good against the A's in the past, though. 42 at-bats,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: 333 average, 878 OPS, 9-3 strike-out-walk ratio. I think the over, again,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: I feel like I'm saying over in every game here,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: but I think that might be the right way to
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: look here. The total's low in this one, though, 7.5, and,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: you know... If the total's low, it's usually low for
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: a reason, but this pitching matchup really doesn't look that
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: good to me. 84% of tickets, 89% of the cash
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: or the over. I know it's Texas. I mean, it's
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: an under-conducive stadium, but this is not an under-conducive pitching matchup,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: in my opinion. I think over makes sense here, and
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: I kind of lean towards the A's. I think Lopez
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: might actually be a little bit more trustworthy right now.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: He's in the better form right now, and his matchup
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: numbers are actually slightly better. and the A's might have
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: sort of the motivation, if you will, because they're trying
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: to avoid the sweep. Yeah, I mean, the A's in
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: the first five, it sounds horrible, but you know me.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, sometimes ugly plays are the right way to go.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: I think the A's in the first five is the
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: way to look at the side here. Obviously, don't factor
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: in their bullpen, but yeah, you'll get them as an
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: underdog in the first five. The numbers, minus 160 or
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: so on Texas for the full game. They look like
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: they're getting the money, though. 81% of tickets, 92% of
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: the cash. Texas but Yeah, I think the A's in
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: the first five makes sense You might even be able
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: to find a plus half run at a decent price there.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: All right Baltimore Colorado I don't know what to think
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: about this series really the teams have split the series
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: and both games have gone way under the total so
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: I was not right in thinking there would be a
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: lot of runs in those games although I handicapped Bradish
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: thinking he was going to pitch game one of the
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: series he pitched game two instead yesterday I am not
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: interested in playing the over in this game either, but
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: this might be where it happens. The game that I
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: think is the least likely to go over probably winds
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: up going over. That's just how baseball is, but I
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: don't want to deal with this game at all. This
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: is a horrendous game. Baltimore technically, I guess, has the
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: more motivation because they're still trying to make the playoffs
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: if you want to look at it that way. Baltimore
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Colorado used a bunch. They
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: used five. Baltimore has the better bullpen. There's no question
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: about that. They're number 10. Colorado's number 27. Baltimore is
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: 20th offensively, though, and Colorado is fourth. So Colorado does
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: have the edge hitting-wise. Trevor Rodgers pitching for Baltimore. He's
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: been pretty good recently after a bad start to the season. 4.38 ERA, 1.25
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: whip is not too bad. He's a little bit worse
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: on the road, 4.53 ERA, but not much worse. He's
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: in better form recently, although I know he allowed six
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: runs last time against St. Louis, which is not great
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: because they're not a good offense. And that was in
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: a pitcher-friendly park in St. Louis. But he had seven strikeouts,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: one walk there. So he got unlucky, in my opinion.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: His command was still on point. Really good command numbers
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: in August, 32-5. Strikeout walk ratio. So I think he's
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: had two good months in a row, even though his
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: ERA kind of got skewed a little bit high there
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: in August. His hit rate is still not that good
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: on the season, but his walk rate's pretty low. His
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is okay. Strikeout walk ratio will be good
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: because his walk rate's low. So yeah, that's in the threes.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: That's fine. Strikeout per nine is around eight. That's not
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: too bad either. Rodgers against Colorado. They have four guys
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: who have hit against them. They're 0 for 10 overall.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Three strikeouts, one walk, so he's done well against them
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: in a very small sample, though. Will Rodgers do well
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: in Coors Field? I don't know. I mean, he's got
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: a pretty high fly ball rate, and he allows some
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: home runs, so that's not great for pitching in this stadium,
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: but I tend to lean more towards him pitching well.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Than not. I think he's in decent form. And he
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: has decent matchup numbers here. Tomoyuki Sugano is not in
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: decent form. He's pretty much fallen off. Like the advanced
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: analytics guys will be. Patting themselves on the back. Because
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Sugano finally started regressing. His ERA is up to 5.23. 1.36 whip. Which. Actually,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: to me, that whip does kind of indicate his ERA
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: maybe should be slightly lower than this. For whatever reason,
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: he's still better at home, although his ERA is now
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: five at home. His last two starts are both bad.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: Last three starts, actually, were all bad. But he was
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: kind of, I mean, he was pitching all right for
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: the majority of the season. His command numbers were still
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: okay in the month of August, but he was way
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: too hittable and allowed a bunch of home runs in here.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Is he going to be able to bounce back, or
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: is he just bad? I mean, that is kind of
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: the question here. He was fooling the advanced analytics guys
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: basically all season, though. He does have way too high
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: of a hit rate, though. He does allow too many
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: home runs, especially given he has to pitch in course field.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: That's not good, and I think he was getting a
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: little bit lucky with the timing of the home runs,
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: because I think he's allowed 27 home runs on the season.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: I think 23 of them are solo shots, so that
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: is a little bit lucky, but maybe it's just a
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: mental thing, you know what I mean, where he focuses
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: more and is able to get guys out with guys
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: on I don't know it does have a really really
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: low strikeout rate and his walk rate's not bad he
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't really walk anybody but which means his strikeout walk
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: ratio is actually not that bad given how low his
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate really is strikeout per nine is really low
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: in the five strikeout walk ratio in the twos Sugano
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore. Now, he might be pumped because he's going
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: to be facing his former team for the first time.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is the only other team he's pitched for in
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Major League Baseball, and that's where he was last year,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: and they let him go. So he might be a
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: little bit extra motivated to pitch well against the team
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: that got rid of him. They're a combined 0-4-4 off him.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Only Alonzo and Taveras have ever faced him. One strike,
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: got one walk in here. This game is really, really
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: hard to figure out. I mean, I usually focus on
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: these totals in Coors Field. I mean, Colorado, I mean,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: sometimes they're playable at home. I don't really think they
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: are here. I think maybe the way to play this
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: is just to look towards the Baltimore side. I mean,
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: you're going to have the motivation with you. You're going
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: to have the better pitcher here in Rogers and the
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. 80% of tickets, 88% of the cash on Baltimore.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: You're laying minus 160, though, so you'd have to make
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: it a minus one run line. I mean, maybe that
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: is the best way to look at this game. Full
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: game total is 11. The money's coming in towards the over.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: I kind of lean first five under, but I know
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: both games of the series went way under the total,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: like surprisingly. So maybe that is going to balance out here.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe we'll get an over in this one. Like I said,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: even though I think this looks like the least over
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: conducive matchup in the series, which of course means it's
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: going to go over, right? But I think maybe first
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: five under, I guess is, In my mind, I think
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: it's maybe a consideration as far as a better way
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: to play this game. This is not a game I
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: would want to have money on. Like, at all.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Alright.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Philadelphia, Arizona.
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: We took a push with the first five under in
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: this one yesterday. Also, I forgot. StreamYard fucked up yesterday, dude. So,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: I apologize.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: I mean.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: I guess I shouldn't apologize because there was nothing I
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: could do about it. StreamYard gave me a notification, and
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: I was like, what the fuck does that mean? And
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: I checked, and it seemed like the stream was still working,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: but it wasn't. Everything was just dead after a certain point.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: So I think it was only for the last game
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: that I talked about, though, where I would have been correct,
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: by the way. I said St. Louis in the first
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: five in that game against the Dodgers in a return
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: home spot yesterday. So that would have been a correct opinion.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: It was, it's just, you can take my word, although
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I was wrong, I said under in that game too,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: so I was wrong about my total opinion in that one,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: but my best opinion on that game was the St.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Louis first five play. You can trust me, but whatever. Yeah,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: so that all got cut out of the show, unfortunately.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: It is what it is, man. I mean, StreamYard just
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: totally fucked up, and I don't know what else to
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: say about that. It happened towards the end when I
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: was talking about the Philly-Arizona game. This game, I mean,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Philly might be able to get this win here, man,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: even though you've got to think Arizona's going to be
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: extra motivated. This is a big wildcard series here as
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: far as wildcard implications, let's say, and Arizona's lost both
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: games in the series. They've only put up two runs
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: in the series. They're not doing well here, so you've
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: got to think Arizona's going to be a little extra
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: motivated here. to try to get this win, to avoid
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: getting swept and not kill themselves in the wildcard race.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: Although I think Philly will still show up motivated too, though,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: because it's a wildcard conducive series, and it would be
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: way better to sweep if you're Philly than to only
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: go 2-1 in the series. So I think both teams
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: are actually going to be motivated, maybe a little bit
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: more on the Arizona side. Philly used two elite pitchers yesterday.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I do not like their bullpen, but Arizona used five.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: So Philly may actually have the slight bullpen edge in
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: this one, They're number 16. Their ERA is not too bad,
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I guess, at this point. It's really barely any higher
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: than Arizona's. Although Arizona's ranked ninth because their whip is better. But, yeah,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, Philly might actually have the slight bullpen edge.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: I think these bullpens are somewhat closely matched, and the
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: rest might tilt it towards Philly. Hitting-wise, Philly's been hitting
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: better recently. They're number 16 now, tied with the Giants
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: again after yesterday. Whatever. Arizona 21st. Although Arizona was hitting better,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: but right now it seems like they're kind of falling
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: off again offensively. Andrew Painter is pitching for Philly. He's
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: been better recently, man. I mean, he's a rookie, I'm
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: pretty sure, and his early part of the season was terrible,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: and then they sent him down to the minors about
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: a month ago. He came back up recently. He's been
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: way better since coming back up, although his numbers don't
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: show it. 5.95 ERA, 1.44 whip. He has a 6.08
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: road ERA, so he is bad on the road. But again,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: I don't think I want to fade him right now
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: because after they sent him down in Late June, he
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: was down in the minors for like a month. They
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: brought him back up, and he's allowed three or fewer
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: earned runs in all but one start since coming back up,
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: and Phillies won his last four starts. So he's obviously
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: pitching better here, although his walk rate still kind of
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: leaves something to be desired, but he's pitching a lot better.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is still really high on the season,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: but since he's come back up, it's been a lot lower.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: His walk rate on the season is mediocre, which kind
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: of has remained the same. His strikeout rate is Kind
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: of low, but it's been higher since coming back, so
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: he's had better strikeout stuff since coming back, too. His
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio on the season is kind of low
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: in the low twos. Strikeout per nine, a little bit
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: below eight, but he's improving sort of across the board,
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: so I don't really want to fade him here. He
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: actually pitched against Arizona early in the season, way back
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: in April, and that was one of his only good
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: starts early in the season was at home against Arizona.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: He actually pitched well in that one. So he's got
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: good numbers against them. 13 at-bats, a small sample, but
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: 154 average. 431 OPS, 5-to-1 strikeout walk ratio. One extra
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: base hit, and in fact, both hits that Arizona has
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: against him are both from Vargas. I think Painter might actually...
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: pitch well here, man. He's in much better form right now.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: And he's facing a team that even though they saw him,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: they saw him way early in the season. So he
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: might've changed some things and he was pitched well in
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: that one too. So I think Painter might actually get
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: the job done here. And Arizona's going with like, what
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: looks like a bullpen game here. Taylor Clark listed as
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: a starter, but he's a relief pitcher. He's had a
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: pretty good season, but I don't think he's going to
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: be in the game for that long. He also doesn't
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: pitch well against Philly, for whatever that's worth. But I
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: don't think he's going to be in the game that long.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: And what I usually do is I go back and
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: I say, well, who pitched five days ago? And it
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: was Cole Drake for Arizona, but they sent him to
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: the minors. So it's not going to be him. So
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: I think Arizona is actually going with a bullpen game here.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: You never know because it's September call-ups, so some crazy
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: stuff can happen here. But I kind of leave Philly here.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I think I would rather have Painter and Philly with
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: a more rested bullpen. Maybe you can actually leave them in.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: If you don't want to do that, you could go
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Philly first five as well. Maybe that is actually the
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: better approach is Philly first five. You're going to have
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: to pay more of a price for it, though. Philly,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: let me see. Where's the National League? Here we go.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: The money's not agreeing with me at all on that.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: 63% of tickets on Philly, 92% of the cash on Arizona.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, I understand the sentiment. I mean, it would
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: be more of a situational play to play Arizona here,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: but I just don't really see any real advantage they
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: have here besides that, of course, motivation. I mean, of course,
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: it is something, and I handicap for motivation really strongly
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: in every sport that's not baseball, but the matchup to me,
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: Baseball is more matchup dependent, and to me it seems
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: like that favors Philly. They're around minus 115 or so,
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: minus 118 on the game. Probably they're minus 120-something in
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: the first five. Maybe Philly first five is the better
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: way to play it. It looks like money is kind
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: of indicating towards an over nine in this game too,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: but I don't really have a good feel for the
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: total on that one. I do think I have a
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: good feel for the total in this next game, and
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: the market doesn't agree with me, but it is one
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: of my plays. even though both games of the series
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: went over so far, but that's what I'm going to
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: recommend here. Seattle-Boston over 8.5 here. I mean, the Red
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Sox called up one of their minor league pitchers yesterday,
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: Paez or whatever, to make his major league debut. He
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: sucked ass. And then the Red Sox wound up scoring
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: against Seattle's relief pitchers later on in the game, too,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: and almost made a game of it. The Red Sox
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: were down 9-1, and they lost 9-6. Seattle's bullpen really,
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: really struggling. but the Red Sox bullpen hasn't been great
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: either recently. So I think we have two bullpens that
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: are not in very good form right now, but you
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: know me, I'm focusing on the starting pitching here. And
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: I actually think even though Seattle has the better starting
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: pitcher going here, which I think was also the case yesterday,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: of course. And I would have, I was correct with
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: the Seattle side lean in the game yesterday. Woo against
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: like the Red Sox, not knowing what they're doing at
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: all seemed like the right side. Um, This game, I
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: do think Seattle's the right side again in this game.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: Just on the surface, you have a way better pitcher
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: pitching for Seattle here. The thing is, once you dig
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: into the matchups and the current form and whatever, I
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: think both pitchers are going to get hit in this game.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: And both offenses have been hitting well recently. So I
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: think there are a lot of things that line up
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: for an over in this one. I don't know why
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: the market is not agreeing with me on this. The
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, they do still have the number one bullpen
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: in whip. They used three guys yesterday. They did not
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: really use any of their better relievers yesterday. So if
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: it is a close game, their better relievers are probably
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: getting into this game today. Seattle used four guys. They've
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: had lighter usage recently, but their bullpen is kind of
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: untrustworthy recently. Boston still ranked number one, very close with
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: the Yankees in bullpen metrics. So they're like 1A, 1B
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: as far as which bullpen is better. It's pretty close.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: Red Sox dealing with some bullpen injuries. Tyron Guerrero has
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: now gone on the DL. Oh, and by the way,
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: part of that game yesterday for the Red Sox, I
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: mentioned Rutschman was the only hitter in the Red Sox
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: lineup that had any good numbers against Wu. Oh, well,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: he's hurt, so he didn't play yesterday either. Isn't that
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: just great? The Red Sox, they had a conditional clause
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: in that trade where they already paid way too much
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: for him in that trade. And there was a condition
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: where the Red Sox would only... add Rivas as a
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: player to be named later, who's another one of their
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: top 10 prospects. If Rutschman was 100% healthy, well, he
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: isn't 100% healthy. They already had to take him out
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: because he's hurt, because he has like an elbow thing.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox already made that part of the
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: trade too. They already sent Rivas over too. So it's like,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: shouldn't they be compensated for that? I mean, this is bullshit.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Like it's such a bad trade for the Red Sox
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: to Rutschman. He's had like one good game with the
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Red Sox so far. And now if he's hurt, you're
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: going to get Connor Wong in there every game for
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, and that guy can't fucking hit. At all.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: Unless the Red Sox put Mickey Gasper at catcher. The guy, Gasper,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: he hit another home run yesterday. Gasper is fucking, dude,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: he's like, what is he, fucking Mickey Mantle or some shit?
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Mickey Gasper, Mickey Mantle now? I have no fucking clue
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: how this guy is doing what he's doing. It's getting
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: completely insane. But whatever. I'm rambling. I'm pissed. As a
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: Red Sox fan, I do not like the direction things
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: are going. I do not like the pitcher they have
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: going in today's game, obviously, but I'm here to talk
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: about the over. Hitting-wise, the Red Sox have been hitting
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: pretty well still. They're number nine on the season offensively.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: They've been hitting way better since the All-Star break. Seattle
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: has not. Seattle's 29th, but Seattle's put up a ton
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: of runs in this series. So I think it's going
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: to continue to happen, especially against Patrick Sandoval. Seattle's going
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: with Bryce Miller. Miller is pretty good. 4.12 ERA, but
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: he's better than that. His 1.09 whip tells you that.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: Similar to what I said with Wu. However, also similar
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: to what I said with Wu, Miller is a lot
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: worse on the road. These Seattle pitchers do a lot
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: better at home. Fenway is a lot more hitter-friendly than Seattle,
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: and Miller has a 4.94 road ERA, 269 opponent batting
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: average on the road, so he's significantly worse on the road.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: He's also been awful in the recent starts. Seattle's lost
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: his last eight starts, by the way. And since the
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: beginning of August, he has a nine ERA and an
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: 18 to 12 strikeout walk ratio. And he's allowed four
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: plus runs at every start. Is that good? Um, no, no.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: The answer is no, it is not. Now he has
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: faced some, Pretty potent offenses recently. The Yankees, I mean,
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: I guess say what you want about their current form,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: but they're still the Yankees. Milwaukee, and then the Cubs. Oh,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: and by the way, Miller, in case you didn't remember,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: he was the pitcher in both of those Seattle most
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: embarrassing losses ever. probably in their team history the 22
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: to nothing loss to milwaukee and the 19 to 2
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: loss to the cubs miller was the starter in both
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: of those games so i would say things are not
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: going well for him and i think we had an
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: under in that last game against the cubs that worked
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: out well um Yeah, what the fuck, dude? He walked
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: seven guys in that one, too. He's just in awful
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: form right now, though his hit rate is low on
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: the season. His walk rate is low on the season.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: I think he's a good pitcher in general. His strikeout
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: rate's not bad either. Has a good strikeout walk ratio
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: in the season in the high threes. Strikeout per nine
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: is the highest that he's had in his career, close
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: to nine. But there's something wrong with him right now.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: And he does not have good matchup numbers here either.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: 42 at-bats against the Red Sox. Although Rutschman is included
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: in here, but he's a mediocre 2-for-8 off him with
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: no extra base hits. 286 average for the Red Sox
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: against him, including Rutschman. It's also possible Rutschman plays. I
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: don't even know. 824 OPS, 12-4 strikeout walk ratio. So
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: the ratio there is fine. is fine, but the rest
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: of these numbers are bad. So I think the Red
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: Sox can get to Miller here, given his current form
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: and given that his track record against the Red Sox
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: isn't that good. And Patrick Sandoval, especially for the Red Sox,
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, this guy's going to get obliterated. I'm sorry,
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: but he cannot keep giving up as few runs as
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: he has. And his ERA is still not even really
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: that good, 4.2, but his 1.71 whip is an absolute
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: train wreck. Like, this guy should have a 6.5 ERA, basically.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know what... I mean, you can go look
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: at Baseball Savant and see what his expected ERA is.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: They might have it even worse than that. This guy
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: fucking blows, dude. He's so fucking bad. He should not
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: be on this team's roster at all. Yeah, he's got
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: a 3.54 home ERA, sure. Whatever. His opponent batting average
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: at home is 305. So do you really think his
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: ERA is... legitimate here no the answer is no it
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: isn't uh he does have a good strikeout rate i'll
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: give him that he strikes out guys at a pretty
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: high rate but his hit rate's high his walk rate
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: is really high none of that is good tons of
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: guys get on base against this guy and his strikeout
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: walk ratios in the low twos despite having a strikeout
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: for nine above nine that tells you how many walks
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: he issues it's not good And Seattle only has four
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: guys that have faced him, or five guys, excuse me,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: but they have 67 at-bats against him. So the guys
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: that have been on Seattle for a while that have
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: all seen him before, they have a 254 average against
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: him and 798 OPS. I know that's not great, but
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: they definitely have the upper hand against him. And Sandoval
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: is a trash pitcher. 10 to 5 strikeout walk ratio
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: is also not very good. So, yeah, I think we're
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: going to get runs in this one. I'm going to
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: call for it the over. The total is very reasonable
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: at 8.5, which almost worries me. Like, why the fuck
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: is this total as low as it is? 85% of
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on the over and only 50-50 as
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: far as I know. as the cash the money's not
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me on this I don't care man I
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: think this game is definitely an over this is the
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: first one that I identified I thought this was going
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: to be my only play today I like it I
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: think it's going to happen The money is also indicating
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: towards Seattle. I do not disagree with that. Seattle's probably
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: the more, I mean, they are the more desperate team here, too.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: Before yesterday, Seattle lost five in a row, I think,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: and they're hanging on by a thread as far as
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: trying to make the playoffs. You know what, though? Seattle
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: might make the playoffs because if you look at their
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: remaining schedule after they play the Red Sox, Seattle's playing
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: a lot of bad teams in the rest of September.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: Seattle's got one of the easiest remaining schedules. So that's interesting.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: So they still have a shot to win their division,
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: given the weak opponents they're facing. They're playing like the
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: Angels and the A's for like two-thirds of their remaining games, basically.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. So, yeah, if Seattle doesn't get through
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: that with a bunch of wins, then they're, yeah, then
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know. There's no excuse for that. But I
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: lean Seattle on the side in this one. 83% of tickets,
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: 75% of the cash on the Red Sox. The money
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: seems to agree with it. Dude, Sandoval should not be
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: fucking favored against Bryce Miller. I'm sorry. I don't care
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: if the Red Sox have the better bullpen. Yeah, they're
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: the better hitting, so yeah, the Red Sox are the
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: better overall team. Sandoval is absolute ass. He does have
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: the slightly better matchup numbers at minus 130.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: I would lean towards Seattle. It would be a first
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: five play, though. I wouldn't want to have Seattle's bullpen
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: in that equation. So I would lean Seattle first five,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: but you know what my play is in the game.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Over the total, over eight and a half. Yeah, make
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: sure you get an eight and a half. Don't have
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: to go with a nine on that. I think you'll
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: easily find an eight and a half somewhere on that.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: And the money isn't even agreeing with me, so it
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: probably won't be much of an issue to find it.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: New York Mets and Tampa Bay here. Tampa Bay won
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday after losing the first game of the series.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: This has been a split series. Tampa Bay does have
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: motivation in that they're trying to remain ahead of the
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: other teams in the division, you know, so Tampa Bay,
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: they're staying neck and neck with the Yankees. Like they
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: both gone one and one in the last two games.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: So Tampa wants to maintain that lead. They do not
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: want to fall back to a wild card, especially because
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: Tampa has a, has a really good home record. They
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: want to have home field in the first series in
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, you know, so they're, Really going to be
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: trying to maintain that. The Mets are playing with motivation, though.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: I'll give them that. However, I don't think this is
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: a good setup for the Mets here. The Mets are
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: going with a bullpen game pretty much in this one,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: so I don't think that's going to work out that well.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: You know me. I'm old school. I don't love bullpen games.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: But it's September, remember? So September call-ups, the bullpen games
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: are going to be more common, and they might work
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: some of the time because you have more arms that
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: you can use. All of these teams are going to
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: have a few extra relievers in their bullpens in September,
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: you know, and every team has a couple extra position
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: players too. I think you get five extra players on
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: your roster, if I'm not mistaken. I might be wrong
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: about that. The Mets used three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: I think, is better than Tampa's, although both bullpens have
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: been decent. Tampa used three. Tampa is ranked third because
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: their whip is pretty good, but their ERA is still
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: above four. Mets are ranked sixth, but they have the
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: better ERA, so I prefer the Mets bullpen, but that's
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: basically all I prefer about the Mets here. Tampa's the
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: better offense. They're number seven. Tampa is very good at home,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: by the way. As I keep reminding you, they're not
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: a team you really want to fade much at home.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: You got to really pick your spots to do that.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: The Mets are 26th in offense. But again, the Mets
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: have been trying recently. Their offense has gotten a little
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: bit better. Justin Hagenman looks like he's going to be
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: the opener or the starter, maybe, for the Mets here.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: He's been injured for a while. And if you look
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: at what he's done in the past, he's basically been
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: a relief pitcher. The only season that he pitched in
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: the majors was last year, even though he's 29 years old.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: He made nine appearances last year, and eight of them
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: were out of the bullpen recently. He had good numbers, though.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: He hardly walked anybody. He had a good strikeout rate
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: and just really didn't put a lot of guys on base,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: so those hit rate actually wasn't really that good. I
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: have no idea what we're going to get out of
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: this guy here, but I don't think he's going to
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: pitch that many innings, so I think it's basically a
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: bullpen game that the Mets are going with here. ESPN
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: says that Tampa's going with Shane McClanahan here, but I
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: don't think that's correct. I think they're pushing McClanahan back
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: to the next game, and I think they're going to
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: start Griffin Jacks. If you were wondering where this guy was,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: Griffin Jacks was injured, so he's coming back, and they're
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: putting him right back in the starting rotation, apparently, so
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: Jacks is actually going to be the starter here. Let
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: me see. Jacks has actually been all right on the season,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: and Let me see. Actually, he's on their depth chart,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: but I don't think he's on their roster right now
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: because they haven't actually activated him yet. But he has
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: a 3.63 ERA this year, 1.21 whip. He's been pretty good, surprisingly,
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: and he's been good at home this year. 3.23 ERA,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: low opponent batting average at home. He was pitching pretty well.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate was really high in his last couple
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: starts before he got hurt. He allowed one run, exactly
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: one run in four of his last five starts this
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: He was pitching well, except he got hit around by
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox in one of those games in there.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: But other than that, he was pitching quite well. He
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start except
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: that Red Sox one, going all the way back to
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: basically the beginning of June against the Mets. I believe
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: he has good numbers against the Mets as well. They
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: have 29 at-bats against them, a 207 average, 647 OPS average.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: 8-1 strikeout walk ratio. So I think Jax is going
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: to do well here. And I consider him to be
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: a veteran. I mean, he's been in Major League Baseball
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: for a while. I mean, he hasn't really had any
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: season where he's really pitched that much except his first
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: season in 2021. But he's been in the league since then.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: So I consider him a veteran at this point. A
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: veteran coming back from a short DL stint. I think
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: they're going to be pumped to get back out there.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: I think the team might rally around him, getting him
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: back because he's had a good season and whatever. Even
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: though I don't think he's really as good as maybe
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: his numbers make him look, but strikeout walk ratios in
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: the threes. That's not bad. Strikeout per nine is high.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: It's around 10. So even though it's lower than what
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: he's posted in the past, he's mostly been a relief
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: pitcher in the past. When you're a starter, you know,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: your strikeout stuff is going to be diminished a little bit.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: Cause you get tired, you know, after the first few innings, um, Yeah,
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: I think Tampa Bay probably gets this game here. The
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: money doesn't agree with me, though. Let me look. Tampa
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: Bay is, where are we looking? Oh, yeah, Interleague. 84%
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: of tickets on Tampa, 56% of the cash on the Mets.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'd want to back the Mets here, man.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: The number's around minus 160 on Tampa. I think I
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: would make a Tampa minus one run line here. I
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: think that might be the way, or minus 170 might
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: be the price on them. But yeah, making a minus
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: one run line will definitely get that price down. to
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: a reasonable number I know Tampa's at home the run
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: line yeah yeah the total is at eight which isn't
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: really that high the money looks like it is indicating
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: on the over in this game though the other thing
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: you could do is just play Tampa to go over
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: their team total right just go with Tampa to tee
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: off on the Mets hitting and not worry about Jax
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: but I think I'd want Jax in the equation because
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: his numbers are pretty good against the Mets so I
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: like Tampa in this one the money doesn't like it
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of that has to do with
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: the price like maybe Jax shouldn't be favored like this Whatever.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: It's not a play for me, but yeah, I'm going
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: to lean to Tampa. And again, Tampa's a good home team.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: I think the motivation should be there for them. But yeah,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: the market read is definitely against it. So I felt
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: like I was going to say, oh yeah, I was
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: going to say, if you're going to play this game,
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: maybe just play it action because you don't really know
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: who the Mets starter is actually going to be here,
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: but it's going to be a bullpen game of some kind.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: And then with Tampa, it's either going to be Jacks
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: or McClanahan. It looks like it will almost definitely be
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: Jacks at this point. But I think you can play
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: it action, and you pretty much know what you're getting
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: from both pitching staffs there. And then your bet would count,
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: and you don't really have to worry about any late
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: changes there. Because whatever change happens, I don't think will
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: affect the fact that I lean Tampa there. San Francisco
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: at Pittsburgh, I mean, this was just an insane result yesterday, 13-12.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: The bullpens were awful. Both starters were bad in the game.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say about that game.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: It was a bad call on the under. I mean,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: who would have thought, though, that Webb against Skeens would
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: be a 25-run game? I mean, it's like unheard of.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, the bullpens didn't help. San Francisco used four
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers, so maybe it should have been a first
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: five under, but it didn't matter. Pittsburgh used most of
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: their bullpen. They used six guys out of theirs. I
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: would not trust these bullpens in this game. Too much usage.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh number 20, San Francisco number 24, although their ERAs
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: are tolerable, but which is kind of part of the
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: reason why I had full game. I also thought the
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: starters would be okay and go deeper into the game.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: That wasn't right. Pittsburgh, they're a really good offense at home.
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: They're number six offensively overall. San Francisco is back up
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: to 16th because they just... Dude, San Francisco has these
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: offensive outbursts on the road. What else can I say?
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're a very good offense, though. They're
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: tied with Philly and with the Royals, actually, right now.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: Landon Raup is pitching this game for San Francisco today.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: He's okay, but he's got to stop walking people, man.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: If he didn't walk a ridiculous amount of people, he'd
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: be a pretty good pitcher. 4.25 ERA, 1.31 whip is
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: not that great. He's a little bit worse on the road, 4.44
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: road ERA. But as you can see, his opponent batting
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: average allowed is not that high. So he doesn't allow
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: that many hits. His problem is the walks. And you
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: can see it in August. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: 19 to 18. That is awful. Even though he's working
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: his way through this, and he's not allowing that many
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: runs in these recent starts, but it's still not good, dude.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: You cannot walk this many guys. His hit rate is low,
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: so he's hard to hit. He's got like some nasty
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: breaking stuff. That's what he throws. His walk rate's way
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: too high. His strikeout rate is decent. The walks are
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: so bad, though, that his strikeout walk ratio is at 2,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: even though he's a decent strikeout pitcher, 8.6 Ks per 9.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: Relp against Pittsburgh is actually good, but they only have
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: 11 at-bats against him. Six hitters have faced him, no
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: extra base hits, 182 average, 490 OPS, 7-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: So this might be a better matchup for Relp, even
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: though I don't even know if I would trust that
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: because Pittsburgh hits well at home, and that's a small
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: sample there. and Raupp is walking everybody right now. Jared
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: Jones is pitching for Pittsburgh. He's got a 4.83 ERA
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: in his comeback from missing an entire season with injury
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: last year. I think Jones is better than what these
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: numbers suggest. 1.28 whip is better than Raupp's, at least.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: Jones does have a bad ERA at home, 5.31, but
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: his opponent batting average is a lot lower at home,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: and his numbers look very similar home and away otherwise.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, man. It looks to me like
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: he's getting a little bit unlucky at home. His command
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: has been a little bit off recently, though. He has
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: a lot of strikeouts recently, but he has a lot
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: of walks. And his team has lost seven of his
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: starts in a row. I mean, that's not a good sign.
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: I think we lost on an under in here somewhere, too.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: We might have lost on backing Pittsburgh in one of
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: those games, too. So that's not good. But Jones, I mean,
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is okay on the season. His walk
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. His strikeout rate is high. He's got
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: good strikeout stuff. So strikeout walk ratio is still over 3.
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: That's pretty good. Strikeout per 9 above 10. That's good.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: He's a talented pitcher, man. He's just got to kind
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: of get it together. San Francisco doesn't have much experience
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: against him. Only Lee has ever faced him before. Jungho
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Lee is 1 for 3 against him with a single.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: No strikeouts, no walks. Jones has unfamiliarity here, so I
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: probably prefer Jones in the starting pitching matchup. This is
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: a hard game to figure out, man. Jones does have
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity, but then again, Ralph has good matchup numbers
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: in a little bit more of a sample size here.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe an under in the first five. I mean,
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: nobody's going to want to play an under in this
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: game after what they saw yesterday, you know? Total's at 8.5,
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: so it's not a particularly high total, so oddsmakers... Oh, actually,
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: Bubba Chandler's pitching. Now I got to re-handicap this. Bubba
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: Chandler is going to be starting out. Whoops. But yeah,
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: the odds makers seem to think it's not going to
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: be that high scoring. 53% of tickets on the over,
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: 56% of the cash on the over. But after you
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: saw yesterday, 13 to 12, nobody's going to want to
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: play an under in this game. I mean, maybe an
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: under is worth considering, but I think I'd rather have
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: Jones than Chandler. Chandler really, really worries me with his
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: amount of walks, but I guess let's handicap him real
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: quick here. I didn't realize they had switched the pitcher here.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: Bubba Chandler, let me see. He's got a 4.26 ERA, 1.36 whip,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: so his numbers look kind of similar to Jones. Chandler
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: is very similar home and away. It doesn't really matter.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: He's not allowing that many runs recently, and he's got
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: his walk rate down a little bit, so actually his
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: recent numbers are actually kind of similar to Jones, other
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: than the fact that Chandler, Pittsburgh has won some of
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: his recent starts. I mean, It looks like Jones doesn't
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: get a lot of runs. Chandler's hard to hit. He
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: has a low hit rate. He finished the season, or
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: he was really good last year, so I think he
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: does have talent, but his walk rate is insane. His
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: walk rate's really bad. It's way too high. I mean
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: insane in a bad way. His strikeout rate is not
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: that great either right now. So his strikeout walk ratio,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: last year it was 7.8%. Only in 31 and a
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: third innings, though. This year, he's thrown 100 more innings,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: but his strikeout walk ratio is below two. I mean,
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: that's just, you can't do that, man. You can't walk
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: this many guys. His strikeout per nine is eight, which
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: is not too bad, really. Chandler against the Giants, mediocre.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: It's also a small sample size here. They have three
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: hitters who have faced him. Jung-ho Lee, again, is the
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: only one with a hit. Two hits, in fact, a
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: single and a double. One strikeout, no walks here. from Devers, Gilbert,
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: and Lee against Chandler. Maybe an under is still on
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: the table here. It would be a first five under, though.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: I would not want to deal with these bullpens here
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: after yesterday. First five under, I think, might make some sense,
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: and I think I might lean San Francisco here. I
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: believe these teams have split the series, right? Pittsburgh won yesterday. No,
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: they only played once so far yesterday. So I think
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: this series continues tomorrow, actually. So never mind. But I
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: think I might slightly lean San Francisco here. Both teams
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: are kind of playing out the stretch at this point.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: San Francisco knows they're not making the playoffs, so they
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: can just play loose. Pittsburgh, I think maybe there's some
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: pressure there if they think they can still make the playoffs,
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: although it's highly unlikely. 67% of tickets and cash on Pittsburgh.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: They're around minus 150-something. Maybe that price is a bit
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: too high. Public seems to be siding with Pittsburgh a
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: bit there, so maybe a slight lean San Francisco there.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I would say make that a first five play as
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: well if that's what you're going to do in that one.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Toronto and Cleveland, I was looking for potential unders in
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: this series, and yesterday landed on seven, which I think
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: was good enough to go under yesterday. And I was thinking, well,
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: when is Cease going to pitch? Because his game might
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: be an under game. Problem is, he's going up against
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: a guy that has no control, which is Joey Cantillo here.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: So I don't think I could really actually do it.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: But these are bad offenses here, man. Toronto won yesterday.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Toronto's making a late push. They're actually trying to make
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, which is crazy. I mean, Cleveland is still
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: trying to make the playoffs, too, and they're above.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: 500.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland is in the last wildcard spot in
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: the AL. I'm pretty sure they are. So Cleveland, both
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: teams have motivation here, man. It's kind of crazy, the
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: fight for this wildcard spot here. And the Red Sox
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: better not fall too far back, man, because their lead
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: isn't that big in that second wildcard spot. But these
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: are bad offenses here, Cleveland-Toronto. Cleveland used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Toronto used four. But these are fairly rested bullpens here.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Toronto used, oh, they used our guy Michael Lorenzen. He's
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: on Toronto, I guess, apparently now. Toronto didn't use their
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: better relievers yesterday, though, because I believe they had a
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: bigger lead. Cleveland is 15th in bullpen. Toronto is 18th.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I think these are both decent bullpens. the offenses are
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: both bad Cleveland is 27th Toronto's 28th so that's why
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: I said this has the feel of like a series
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: is going to be low scoring because you got bad
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: offenses reasonably good pitching in the most for the most
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: part between these two teams Dylan Cease of course is
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: an elite pitcher for Toronto he's had a really good
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: season like one of his best after last year I
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: think he was kind of misused like his numbers weren't
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: that good last year with San Diego but He's been
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: basically elite this year. He's in the Cy Young conversation here. 2.33 ERA, 1.05 whip.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: He's been really good on the road. 1.67 road ERA.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Still in good form right now, even though he throws
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of pitches a lot of times. He gets
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of strikeouts. He's a little bit wild, but
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: he gets so many strikeouts and is so unhittable, it
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: doesn't even matter. His hit rate's really low. His walk
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: rate is definitely too high. His strikeout rate is also
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: really high. One of the highest. So he's got a
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio that's still in the threes, even though
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: he walks a ton of guys. His strikeout per nine
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: is at 13. I mean, that's like Mizurowski territory. That's
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: an insanely high strikeout rate. Numbers against Cleveland are also
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: pretty good, and 105 at-bats, 248 average, 701 OPS, though
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: they've had a little bit of power hitting against them. Still,
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: I think he has the upper hand here. 25-8 strikeout
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, but five of those walks are from Nathaniel Lowe.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: I think Cease should pitch well here. I think the
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: question mark is really Joey Cantillo on the other side here.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: Cantillo is a pretty good pitcher. He's got good strikeout stuff,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: but he's also wild. So you have two pitchers that
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: strike out a lot of guys here, but they're wild.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: But Cantillo's wildness is a bigger concern, and he's not
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: as good as Cease. He's got a 3.7 ERA. 1.45
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: whip is really ugly, though. Indicates his ERA should be
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: higher than that. He is better at home, though. 3.56
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: home ERA. So both pitchers... in the better of their
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: home road splits, but Cantillo, he's got 14 walks across
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: his last three starts, man. Cleveland has won all three,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: and he's only allowed four runs total in that span.
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: Failed to make it five innings in Coors Field, though.
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: But you can't keep walking guys like this and maintaining this,
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean? 21-16 strikeout walk ratio in
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: the month of August, that's not good, even though his
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: ERA was really low. It's kind of unsustainable if you're
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: walking this many guys. His hit rate is okay. It's
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: reasonably low. His walk rate is way too high. He
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: walks more than one guy every two innings. I mean,
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: that's really bad. His strikeout rate is also high, though.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: But his strikeout walk ratio is not really that good.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: It's in the low twos. Strikeout per nine is close
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: to ten, so that is pretty good. but he walks
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: way too many guys. Toronto only has five hitters who
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: have faced him, 15 at-bats, small sample, but they've done
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: some damage against him. 333 average, 1,000 OPS, three strikeouts,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: no walks. I think, you know, I mean, an under
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: is not off the table here. Like, I think the
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: pitching is better than the under. hitting here. It's a
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: low total. It's seven, seven and a half. Under makes
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: some sense here, and the money is agreeing with that.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: 82% of tickets on the over, 56% of the cash
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: on the under. I'd agree with that, but I think
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: the better way to play this is just play Toronto.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: You could play them in the first five, but their
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen might actually have the slight edge here because their
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: back-end relief pitchers are both really good. Varland and I
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: forget the other guy's name. Toronto, minus 130 on the
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: money line here. I mean, that's somewhat reasonable. 75% of tickets,
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: 92% of the cash on Toronto, though usually you know
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: you're going to be paying a tax for Cease, but
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: it looks like because Toronto's had a bad season maybe
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: or whatever, it looks like maybe the line is still
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: kind of reasonable here, and the money is back in Toronto.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: So I think the better way to play that game
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: is actually the Toronto side there. You could do it
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: first five as well, but if you do that, you'll
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: have to pay more of a price for it, but
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: Cease should have the upper hand. over Cantillo so if
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: you want to do Toronto first five you could lay
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: a half run with that and hope they're winning at
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: the end of five I think you might be able
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: to get that one uh Detroit and Minnesota I don't
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: know what happened to Detroit man they've gotten embarrassed in
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: the series Minnesota has outscored them 26 to 3 in
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: the first two games of the series unbelievable Minnesota is
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: still trying to make the playoffs I think Detroit at
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: this point is Yeah, I think they might be a
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: dead team, Detroit. They might know, yeah, we're not getting
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: out of this at this point. Detroit's just too far
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: back at this point. Minnesota probably has more motivation here. However,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Detroit's trying to avoid a sweep here, I'm pretty sure. So,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: you know, I always talk about that. When a team's
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweep, a lot of times the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: motivation is there on that side. It's been so embarrassing
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: for Detroit that maybe they will bounce back. I don't
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: know what happened. That was Troy Melton yesterday, and he
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: melted down, apparently. I don't know what happened. in that game,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: but yeah, just total obliteration there. I'm not surprised that
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: Minnesota won the first game because I think that was
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: Taj Bradley against, I don't know, some questionable pitcher for Detroit,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: but yesterday, I don't know what the hell that was.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: Can Minnesota keep this up? I don't know, man. I mean,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's bullpen is still not good. They used three guys yesterday.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: Detroit has the better bullpen. Detroit used three as well.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: Detroit is ranked 17th. Their bullpen's getting a little bit worse.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: Their ERA's over four, but Minnesota's a bottom few bullpen.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: They're number 28, so Detroit still has the edge there.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's the better offense. They're number eight. They've been really
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: good in this series, obviously. Detroit's all the way down
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: to 22nd. I mean, their offense has fallen off a cliff.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Really not good there. Detroit has Drew Anderson listed as
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: a starter, so sort of a bullpen game, although Anderson's
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: been going like four or five innings in his starts now,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: so I think he will be the starter here. Although,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: if you want to play this game and you want
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: to really make sure your bet counts, you could pick...
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: Creamer must start for the Twins, but don't pick a
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: starter for Detroit. But I think it will be Anderson
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: because he has made the start the last handful of
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: times he's been out there. 3.87 ERA for him. 1.33
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: whip is not that good, though. Anderson, not good on
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: the road. He's way worse on the road. 5.08 road ERA.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: Some of this was coming out of the bullpen, but
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: he's been starting recently. He's been okay. He hasn't allowed
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: that many runs, but... I don't know, the underlying metrics
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: are not really looking that good. He's walking too many
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: guys here. Shut out the Dodgers for four and two-thirds
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: innings last time out. But Detroit lost that game. Detroit's
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: lost most of his recent appearances. He walked five guys
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers and somehow got away with not allowing
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: any runs. Not likely that that happens. The Dodgers are
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: usually going to make you pay, man. So I think
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: he got kind of lucky. His hit rate is okay.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is okay. Somewhat okay. Strikeout rate is high,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: so the numbers across the board actually don't really look
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: that bad for him. Strikeout walk ratio is around 3.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's not too bad. Strikeout per 9 is 10.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: That's all right. Still, I don't know what we're going
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: to get out of Anderson here. The Twins haven't done
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: that well against him. They have 10 at bat, small sample.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Six hitters have faced him. 200 average, 633 OPS, 2-2
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Dean Creamer on the other side from Minnesota.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: He's got a 5.6 ERA, but his whip kind of
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: suggested his ERA should be lower than that, although I've
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: never been a fan of him. I don't think he's
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: that good, but 1.26 whip, while it's not great, that
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: does indicate his ERA should be lower than it is.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: He's been better at home, 4.73 home ERA, but remember,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: he was with Baltimore for much of the season, and
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: he got traded to Minnesota. He's been more good than
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: bad with Minnesota, though. His numbers are okay with Minnesota.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: He's had a couple of bad starts in there, but
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: they've lost four out of five of them, though. And
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: two of his last three starts were not very good.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: And both of those actually happen to come at home,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: so I'm not sure that he's really that good at home.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: And his walk rate has gone up again recently, so
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to trust him. And
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: he's not good against Detroit. In 87 at-bats, 310 average,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: 887 OPS. Those numbers are not good. 18 to 10
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. You know, there is a case here
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: for Detroit. The money is coming in on Detroit. They're
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweep. Creamer has bad matchup numbers. Detroit,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're sort of the kings of the bullpen
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: game with A.J. Hinch, I think, is still their manager.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: He does bullpen games a lot. So they're used to
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: doing stuff like this. So I'm not really going to
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: disagree with the Detroit side, but... 52% of tickets on Minnesota,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on Detroit. And they have the
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. You're getting them as a small underdog price here, Detroit.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: So that's one way to look in this game. I
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: probably also do lean over, and the money does agree
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: with that as well. 50-50 on the tickets, 79% of
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over, 8.5%. I mean, I don't
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: think I trust either pitching setup, so an over somewhat
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: makes sense here too. You could also combine those things
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: and play Detroit to go over their team total after
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: their offense has been so miserable recently. Maybe this is
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: the game where they finally break out because they've been
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: good against Creamer in the past. They might cream him.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: So you could do that. You'll probably need him to
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: get to five runs. I mean, it's definitely possible, especially
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: you'll get Minnesota's bullpen as part of that equation too,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: and they're not good if you play Detroit team total
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: full game, but I think I might just say play
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: Detroit on the money line and simplify that if you're
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: really going to play that game, which I do not
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: want to. All right, I'll be right back. Five games left.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: I have plays in two of the remaining games, actually.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: In fact, in both L.A. games. So I'll be right back. Yep, inside.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We were on an 0-7
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't even know
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: day at all, 0-4. I just have not had a
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: good season, man. What can this slump... Then I'm on
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: and the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't know
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: what is going on with the Bruins. March 8th? Is
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: that what it is? I don't even know. It's March 9th,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: I think. Who even knows, man. I don't know what
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: day it is anymore. I don't even know what day
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: it is anymore, man. Back with you after the worst
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: day that I could possibly have. Back with you as
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday,
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5, the
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my 18 years
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right, Miami,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. Miami got the win yesterday. Kansas City returning
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: home from a road trip, plus having Dobnock on the
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: mound did not seem to be the greatest, although I
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: think I said over in that game, and I don't
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: think that it hit. I think the total was probably 9.5,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: and it landed 9. But Kansas City is in one
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: of those spots where it could be a bounce-back spot
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: after a team returns home and they don't do well.
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: A lot of times they bounce back in the next game.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: Kansas City might be running out of steam. I know
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: they played well recently, though. Miami maybe thinks they can
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: still make the playoffs and maybe has more motivation here.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know. The pitching matchup, when I first looked
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: at the pitching matchup in this game, though, my first
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: thought was under because I like both these pitchers here,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: and maybe that is going to be one of the
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: ways to play this game. Miami's bullpen is all right.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: They used three guys. Kansas City's bullpen is not all right.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: They also used three guys yesterday. Miami... Number five in bullpen,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is above four, so they're not a
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: top five bullpen, but they're okay. Kansas City is second worst,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: which I think is accurate. 29th, not a good bullpen there. Miami,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: 13th offensively. They've kind of fallen off a bit there.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, 16th, tied with Philly and San Francisco. Kansas
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: City is better at home offensively. Uri Perez is pitching
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: for Miami. He's had a pretty good season, 3.44 ERA, 1.13 whip.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: I like him. I think he's got a lot of talent.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: His ERA is way worse on the road, 4.05, but
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: he walks a ton of guys on the road. I
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: don't know why. I mean, he's fairly wild overall, but
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: his walks are more of an issue on the road
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: than anything else, even though his opponent batting average on
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: the road is awesome at 187. So he is hard
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: to hit on the road. But he's been walking way
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: too many people in general recently, even though he wasn't
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: really allowing too many runs until last time out when
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: he faced Washington two times in a row. Did pretty
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: poorly against them the last time out. I'm not going
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: to say he's actually in bad form. I mean, he's
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: still striking out a lot of guys. He's still really
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: hard to hit. His walk rate is kind of entering
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: that territory where he gets himself into trouble like he
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: used to. He's got his walk rate down a decent
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: amount this year, but he's having some trouble with it
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: again now. He's been really difficult to hit, though, and
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is really high. Strikeout walk ratio, though,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: is below three. I mean, he's still just walking too
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: many people. Strikeout for 9 is high. It's almost 10,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: so he's definitely got talent here. Kansas City has almost
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: no experience against him. Isaac Collins is the only hitter
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: that's faced him. 0 for 1 with a walk. So
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: I think Perez should probably be able to pitch okay here.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: His road ERA doesn't really tell the full story. He's
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: got to fix his walk issues, though. Noah Cameron is
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: on the other side here. He's pretty much turned his
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: season around. He's been good recently, much better than he
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: was earlier in the season. 3.98 ERA, 1.22 whip here.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: He's not as good at home, though. Moving the walls
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: in in the stadium, I think, hurt him more than
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: any of their other pitchers. 4.79 home ERA. Last year,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: I think he was pretty good at home. This year,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: not so much. Now that it's more hitter-friendly there. But
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well. in general recently. Good command numbers, really
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: low ERA, below two in the month of August with
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: very few hits allowed. And Kansas City won four of
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: his five starts here, and the only loss was at L.A.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: at the Dodgers. So, yeah, they're doing pretty well behind him.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: He's allowed two runs total in his last three starts,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: although they were against some pretty weak offenses, Anaheim, Toronto,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: and then Detroit in there. Still, Cameron pitching well right now.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season. His
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: walk rate is reasonable. His strikeout rate is okay. So,
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: his number's not too bad here across the board. Strikeout
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: walk ratio below three. I mean, he just doesn't strike
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: out a ton of guys. Strikeout per nine, yeah, below eight.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: But still, he's a solid pitcher, I think. And Miami
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: has never seen him before. So, there is a lot
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: of unfamiliarity here between both these pitchers. And they're both
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: fairly good pitchers.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: So.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think the way to play this
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: is to play the under. I mean, there are some
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: concerns with the walk rates here and stuff like that.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: I don't really want this game. Maybe it's a little
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: dangerous in Kansas City with how hitter-friendly the stadium now is.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: Although I still... Like, I wouldn't say that you should
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: never play an under here, but I think this... looks
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: like an under to me, but the totals at nine,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: it does mean you get a key. You get the
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: key number of nine. If you do want to play
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: the under, but the money has come in on the
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: over it open eight and a half. It went up
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 2: to that key number nine, 50, 50 on the tickets,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: 86% of the cash on the over. So the money
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: is playing the over. I don't see it. I mean, I,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: I would say first five under though, because of course
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: I don't want Kansas city's bullpen ever. Um, at least
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: in the state that they're in right now. So first
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: five under is what I would say is the way
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: that I think is the best to play this game.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: Money's also coming in on Miami. 59% of tickets on
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, 67% of the cash on Miami. I mean,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's almost a favorite here. It's like a pick
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: and price, and maybe the thought is, well, Kansas City
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: shouldn't be favored. If you figure in the fact that
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: Miami's bullpen is better, whatever. And you could argue that
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Perez is the better of these two pitchers here, like
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: just higher ceiling, more talent, higher strikeout stuff, better strikeout stuff.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: There's an argument to be made for it, but it
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: also kind of looks like it could be a bounce-back
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: spot for KC. But whatever you do with the side,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: I think if you play KC, you should only play
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: them in the first five, although you'd have to pay
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: more for it. If you play Miami, I would play
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: them full game because you'll have a bullpen advantage if
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: you do that. All right, on Milwaukee and the Cubs...
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: high-scoring series so far. We got the overwrite on the
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: show yesterday. This is on MLB Network. It's one of
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: the big series that's going on right now. It's actually
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: a four-game series, so these teams are playing again tomorrow. Basically,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: the deal is that Milwaukee, I mean, it was pretty
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: big that Milwaukee won yesterday because really they basically just
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: need to avoid getting swept here because they started the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: series with an eight-game lead over Chicago in the NL Central,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: and I think if they Even if they go one
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: and three in the series and they still have a
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: six-game lead, that's not that bad. They had to avoid
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: getting swept, but they've done that now that they won yesterday.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: So does it swing back to Chicago here in this one?
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: Is Chicago going to be able to win here? I
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: don't know. It's going to be a tall order, man,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: because Jacob Mizurowski is pitching this game, so Milwaukee's going
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: to be a favorite here. And he's pitching against a
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: pitcher that is not a guy that I'm a fan of.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: Let's put it that way. As far as the bullpens,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are pretty good, although Milwaukee's is the better one.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: Cubs used four elite pitchers yesterday. Milwaukee used five. Yeah,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: so Milwaukee's bullpen is a little bit used, but they still,
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, remember it's expanded bullpens now, and they still
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: didn't use their better relievers yesterday, like Miguel, their closer.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: He's going to be well-rested here if they want to
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: use him today, whatever. Milwaukee's a good bullpen. They're number
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: seven in whip, but I think they're the third best
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: bullpen in baseball here. The Cubs are not too bad.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: They're 13th, although their ERA is above four right now.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: They didn't do too well yesterday. Actually, yeah, just yesterday
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: because the Cubs won the first game of the series
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: by a lot. Milwaukee is number four in offense right now,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: tied with the Rockies. They're hitting well. This Milwaukee team
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: is for real, man. They're good. They're going to be
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: a tough out. in the playoffs. And, you know, I mean,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: I would not mind if Milwaukee, like maybe I'll root
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: for them to win the World Series. You know what
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: I mean? Because then it'll mean no Dodgers, no Yankees,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: like whatever. Go Milwaukee, I guess. What else was I
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: going to say? Oh, the Cubs are, let me see.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: Where am I looking? Oh, the Cubs offensively, yeah, they're
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: number one. So, yeah, I mean, like I said yesterday,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: we had two really, really capable offenses there. But the
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: public's going to like playing overs here, and I don't
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: think the over is the right way to play this game,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: to be honest. In fact, I think the opposite is true.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: Jacob Mizurowski is pitching for Milwaukee. I mean, these numbers
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: that he's putting up are insane. 1.73 ERA,. 75 whip.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: Is he going to get tired? I mean, he's over
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: 150 innings now. Last year, he only threw 66. He's
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: going out there throwing 103 miles an hour, and he
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: still doesn't seem like he's slowing down. He's got a
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio above 6%. Strikeout per nine above 13.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is insane stuff. He's basically the same
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: home and away. His ERA is a little bit worse
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: on the road. His opponent batting average is a little
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: bit better on the road. He's still going out there
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: and pitching well. I mean, I guess his strikeout rate's
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: gone down a little bit over his last few outings,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: but Milwaukee's won his last four outings. He's still allowing
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: very few runs. He's still not allowing hits, really. His
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is still really good. So he doesn't
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: really show signs that he's really slowing down much here
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: or starting to fatigue. Low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate. I mean, this guy is the best
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: pitcher in baseball, man. And I just got one of
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: his jerseys, too, so I might wear that on the
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: show at some point. Yeah, there's not a whole lot
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: else to say, although, yeah, against the Cubs, Mizurowski also
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: has good numbers. They've seen a lot of him at
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: this point, 83 at-bats, but he's had the upper hand
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: against them, 145 opponent batting average, 449 OPS, 31-8 strikeout
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. He's pretty much dominated. David Peterson, as I
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: kind of implied, is pitching for the Cubs, though. I mean,
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: he is not good. 5.11 ERA, 1.52 whip. Those numbers
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: are not good. Although, remember, he spent a lot of
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: the season with the New York Mets, and now the
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Cubs have him. He's been a bad home pitcher this year. 5.95
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: home ERA, but... He's been pretty good with the Cubs.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: He's allowed three or four earned runs in every start
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: except the, I believe it was the second one that
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: he made with the Cubs where he got blown up
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: at home by St.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: Since then, he's been pretty good, even in his home starts.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: So not a whole lot to really complain about with
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: what Peterson's doing. His strikeout rate has gone way up,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: which is crazy. I don't think Peterson is really a
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher. He's usually a guy that walks too many guys.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: He's usually a bit too hittable, and he has been
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: a bit too hittable, and his walk rate's not really
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: that great recently, but he's striking out way more guys
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: and getting ground balls, so I don't know. He's pitching
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: all right right now. He's got a high hit rate
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate's too high on the season.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate's pretty low on the season, but it
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: looks like the Cubs pitchers must have figured something out
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: with him, man, or the motivation is there for him,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: some combination of the two now that he's on a
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: better team. I don't know. His strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: still not good on the season. It's around what it's
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: been in his career, low twos. Strikeout per nine is
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: not high. In fact, in August it was really good,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: but even with the Cubs, his strikeout per nine isn't
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: really that good. I mean, it's close to eight. Peterson
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee does have good numbers. It's 63 at-bats, 206 average,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: 571 OPS, 14-7 strikeout walk ratio, so I think the
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: under is the right way to play this. Although I
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: know the Cubs have had five straight games go 12-plus runs.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: I think the under is the right way to play this.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: Do I really want to trust Peterson? I don't know, man.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: It's close. You're getting an 8.5, though, and that's the thing.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: That means wind is blowing out in Wrigley. You're not
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: going to get an 8.5 on a Mizurowski game unless
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: there's some wind factoring in that's blowing out or something.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: So I think that might be a concern in this game.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's really a concern for Mizurowski, though.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's just going to blow people away regardless.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's really going to have much of
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: an effect on him. For Peterson... Peterson's a ground ball pitcher,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: so I don't really think it's going to affect him
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: much either, to be honest. He doesn't really allow that
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: many home runs or fly balls. So, yeah, I mean,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: as far as the wind, I don't think the wind
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: is going to actually hurt these guys that much. I
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: think the under makes a pretty good amount of sense
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: in this one. The money's indicating that way. 59% of
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: tickets on the under, 84% of the cash on the under.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: Total eight and a half. I like it. I mean,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: it's not on the card for me, but... I'm considering.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: I think if I was going to add another play,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: it probably would be this one. I like the under
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: in this one for sure. It's close, man. Money coming
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: in on Milwaukee, by the way, around minus 160. 82%
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 94% of the cash on Milwaukee. I kind
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: of agree, but I don't think you really pay that price.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: You know that you're having to pay a premium for Mizurowski,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: but I think he is better than Peterson. However, if
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: you like the under, there is a chance that maybe
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: the Cubs can kind of hang around in this game
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: because the Cubs are still a good team, man, and
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: you're getting them as a big underdog price there. But yeah,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: I think under makes the most sense there for sure.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to fully trust Peterson, though.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: I'm leaving it up my card, but it's close. White Sox-Houston,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: interesting series. These teams have split the first two games
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: of the series. I believe they're playing tomorrow, too. Yeah,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: so this series continues tomorrow as well. This is a
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: four-game series. Interesting one. Both teams are in the top
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: spot in their respective divisions right now. I think Houston,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: because their race is closer, they might have more motivation here.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: I think Houston might be the somewhat better team, to
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: be honest. Houston used two relief pitchers yesterday. The White
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: Sox used three. Bullpens are pretty closely matched. Houston's number 12,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: although their ERA is above 4. White Sox are number 14,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: but their ERA is better. So probably the White Sox
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: are the slightly better bullpen here. Houston is 11th offensively
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: tied with Atlanta. The White Sox are 10th. Really closely
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: matched offenses here too. Davis Martin is making his return
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: for the White Sox. He's coming back from the DL.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: And you know, I talk about this. I kind of
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: like veteran pitchers when they come back from the injured list.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: I think people undervalue them usually, and they're actually ready
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: to go. They've gone through their rehab. The team might
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: be stoked to get the guy back. He might be
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: also stoked to get back out there. Martin, though, he
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: was really good at the beginning of the season, but
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: he's really kind of fallen off, so I don't know
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: if I really want to back Martin here. 4.32 ERA, 1.33
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: whip on the season is not that good, especially given
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: how good his numbers looked. early in the season. And
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: the other problem is he's bad on the road. 5.32
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: road ERA, 295 road opponent batting average. None of that
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: is good. And he was not pitching well before he
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: got hurt. And maybe that had to do with the injury,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't had a good start since he beat Toronto,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: or he didn't even beat them. They actually lost the game,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: but he got no run support. He held Toronto to
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: one run in five and two thirds back on July 18th.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: That was like his only good start recently in the
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: last two months, which is, Sad to say, but it's true.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: And the White Sox have lost six of his last
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: eight starts, or whatever that is. That isn't good. And
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: Toronto's a really bad offense, so none of that is good.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: Martin's not in good form. I mean, maybe the injury
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: and rehab stuff will help him reset and whatever. But
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: he's bad on the road, and he's also not good
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: against Houston. They have 67 at-bats against them, a 299 average,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: 816 OPS. 12-4 strikeout walk ratio. In fact, he just
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: faced Houston at home in late July, and he was
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: not great. He gave up four runs and five innings
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: in that one. I don't think Martin's going to do
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: that well here, man. His hit rate is above one
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: per inning on the season, which isn't really that good,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: although his strikeout walk number is definitely good. He doesn't
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: walk that many guys. His strikeout rate's okay. Even that
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: number's actually not that great. It's a little bit below three,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: which is fine. Strikeout walk ratio, I mean, strikeout per
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: nine is pretty high at eight. I mean, that's decent enough.
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: And yeah, that's what I got with Martin is matchup
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: numbers don't look very good. Hayden Wisniewski is pitching for Houston.
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: He's actually been pretty solid. 3.86 ERA, 1.19 whip. He's
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: interesting because he was pretty good in the past, although
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: a lot of his appearances were relief appearances. Then he
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: had some injury-plagued seasons. Really, it was mostly just last year.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: He was injury-plagued in his first Houston season. But his
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: numbers have been pretty good, really, throughout his career. And
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: he seems to kind of be getting back into form here. 3.86 ERA, 1.19 whip.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: It looks like he's worse at home because his ERA
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: is worse, but his opponent batting average is better at home.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: And it's a small sample, so I'm not going to
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: put too much weight into that. He's been decent over
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: the past month. I mean, he's had a couple of
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: good starts in a row here. Houston's won five of
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: his six starts that he's made on the entire season.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: He's allowed more than 300 runs only once. That's not
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: too bad. His hit rate's all right. His walk rate
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: is a bit too high, though. His strikeout rate is okay,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: but overall, not bad. Strikeout walk ratio's a little bit
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: low in the low twos right now because of the walks,
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: but it's been around three in his career, and I
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: think he's kind of moving back in that direction, it
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: looks like. His strikeout per nine is a little bit
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: below eight, and typically it is in the eights, So
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: I think he's kind of regaining his form here. Numbers
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox, they only have four guys who
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: have faced him, eight at-bats, two hits. They're both doubles
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: from Doyle and Greetschok, 250 average, 750 OPS. I like
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: Houston in this one, man. Wisniewski is the pitcher that's
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: in the better form. Money seems to agree with me,
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: 58% of tickets, 71% of the cash. Martin's not good
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: on the road. He has bad matchup numbers, so Wisniewski
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: has the better matchup numbers as well. You're looking at
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: about a minus 140. on Houston, though. You could go
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: first five in this game, too, if you want to,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 2: because I don't think Houston really has the bullpen edge here,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: although the starters, you know, might kind of set the
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: tone as far as what the bullpens are going to do,
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: and the bullpens are close. You want to go Houston
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: first five, you're probably going to be looking at maybe
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: laying a half run with this, but I think that
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: is what I would do. I like Houston here. The
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: money's also coming in on the over eight and a half.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: I see the argument for it. I mean, Maybe the
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: pitching isn't really all that in this one. I mean,
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: the matchup numbers, even with his Ness game, he's right
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: on that 750 threshold with the OPS, although it's a
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: very small sample. But probably there are some more arguments
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: for an over than an under in that one. Zach
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: Franklin's dad plays triple. Wait, what? Wait, who's Zach Franklin?
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what we're talking about here. His
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: dad plays triple A for the Mets. All right, how
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: did you meet him? Let me see here. Next two
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: games are both plays for me, so this is the
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: remaining best bet segment here. And you probably already know
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: what I'm doing here in this first one, even though
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: I don't like one of the bullpens. We're going to
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: take Yankees-Anaheim under the seven. It's a low total, man.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: It's low for a reason, and that's because these two
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: pitchers here are good and good. You got one offense
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: that's still kind of struggling with the Yankees, although I
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: know they haven't really struggled that much. Well, in this series,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: they had one bad game, one good game. But Anaheim also,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: they're a bad offense, Anaheim, and they're really bad at home.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: They're one of the worst offenses in baseball. So they're
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: absolutely a fadable offense. And I think the pitching lines
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: up well for this as well. I know I don't
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: like Anaheim's bullpen, but it is September call-ups. They used
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 2: three guys out of the bullpen. They didn't use any
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: of their better relievers yesterday because The game was totally
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: out of hand, so the better relievers will be available
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: for both teams here today. So I like that, too.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: Yankees used three relief pitchers. They actually did use their
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: setup man yesterday, though, Hedrick, but whatever. He hadn't pitched
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: in a while. Anyway, most of the better relievers are available,
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: and that's what happens when you're coming off a game
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: that was a blowout. A lot of times the bullpens
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: are backable in the next game because the better relievers
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: never came in. But we're also looking at the starters here.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: Cam Schlitler is pitching for the Yankees. 2.09 ERA,. 97 whip.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: The concern with him is that he is up over
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: 160-something innings now, and he's been walking too many guys recently,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: three-plus walks in his last three starts, but he still
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: got away with it. I mean, I don't like it.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: I know, like, I don't love guys that are walking
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: guys like that, but Schlittler has really good stuff still,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: and he only allowed two runs to Odle across those
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: three starts. Two of them were against Toronto, a bad offense,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: and then the other one was the Red Sox, but...
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: This is Anaheim, man. This is not a good offense.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: Even if Schlittler has some command issues here, I think
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: he'll be able to get out of it. His overall
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: numbers are still really good, as we know. He's still
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: the Cy Young frontrunner in the AL. Really low hit rate,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate, low walk rate. None of these numbers
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: are bad, really. High strikeout walk ratio, almost 5. Although
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: I'm sure it's gotten worse with those walks recently. Strikeout
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: per nine above 11. This is all really good, and
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's basically never seen him, although Josh Lowe is two
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: for four off him with two singles, two walks, and
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: a strikeout, but I just, whatever, man. Anaheim basically is
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar with Schlittler, so I think he is going to
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: pitch well here, even though, yes, he is up over
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: that innings threshold. which may not be the greatest but
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: the other thing about Schlittler is I forgot to mention
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: he's way better on the road He's been elite on
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: the road. 1.14 road ERA with a 159 opponent batting average.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: So let's not forget that. And his bigger sample size
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: is on the road. So he could definitely go out
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: there and pitch well on the road. And we're also
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: bagging Reed Detmers on the other side, who I think
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: continues to fly under the radar, man. Like nobody knows
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: this guy's name. He's a strong pitcher. A 3.54 ERA, 1.07 whip.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: He's been somewhat better at home. 3.36 home ERA, 202
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: opponent batting average at home. That's all good. He's still
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: in pretty good form recently. 29-6 strikeout walk ratio in August.
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: Even though Anaheim keeps losing all his games because they
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: can't hit, but we don't need Anaheim to win this game.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: We need the under. And he's got a 1.5 ERA
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: at home. And in fact, if you have a pitcher
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: that's pitching well and getting no run support, that's exactly
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: what you want for an under. Look at the games
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: that he's pitched. Look at how many of these games
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: are going under. The last eight times he's taken the mound,
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: none of the games have gone above seven. One of
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: them landed exactly seven and the rest went under seven.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, we're talking about a lot of low scoring.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: Oh no, sorry. One went eight. Sorry. One went over
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: one landed exactly seven at that game. It wasn't his
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: fault at all. I mean, I don't know what it was.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: I guess the bullpens there. I think we lost on
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: the under and that came actually against Philly. Maybe we didn't.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: I forget. Um, I know my track record with these
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: unders with Detmers have not been good. A lot of
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: them have been first five plays. But if you want
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: to play the first five here, I'd still agree with it.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: But you're looking at a three and a half. You're
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: going to have to lay juice to go under the
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: three and a half as well. So it might even
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: be a three in the first five. So I'm like, whatever.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: Let's just extend it to the full game. Detmers is
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: going deep, man. I mean, he's gone six plus innings
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: and four starts in a row without throwing many pitches.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: So I like that. He's pitching efficiently defensively. and going
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: deep into games, and that kind of rescues you from
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: having to really deal with the bullpens that much. So
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: I say we do this. Detmer's also against the Yankees.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: His numbers are good enough, in my opinion, in 48 at-bats.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: They have hit him for contact, 271 average, but a
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: low OPS, 613. They only have two extra base hits,
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: which are both from Rosario. And in fact, Rosario's the
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: only guy in this lineup that does real damage against him.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: Nobody else really has. So as long as Detmer's can
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: pitch around him, 16 strikeouts, two walks here from him.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: I like it. We're taking the under in this one.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: The recreational betters are probably not going to be involved
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: in this. They're not going to want to go under
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: a seven like this year. I would get on this
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: because it looks like the six and a halves are
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: showing up a lot of places, juiced to the over,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: but pretty sure you'll find a seven, although it is
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: juiced a little bit on the under. 68% of tickets
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: on the over, 62% of the cash on the over.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: So the money seems to be agreeing with this. The
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: Yankees are super public as far as the side goes.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: 93% of tickets, 95% of the cash on the Yankees.
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: They're around minus 160 here. I don't have a great
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: feel for the side here. I mean, you know what
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: I talk about, though. When you think it's going to
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: be a low-scoring game and you think that the pitching
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: is going to be kind of a duel, getting a
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 2: big underdog somewhat makes sense. So maybe an... I've said
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: Anaheim first five in all three games in the series
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: that if I'm going to say it here, but it
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: was correct in game one. It wasn't correct yesterday. I
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: felt better about game one because it was Urania yesterday.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: I forget who started for Anaheim, but it wasn't as
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: good of a play. This one probably isn't either because
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: Schlittler is still the better of these two pitchers, but
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: Demers is good enough that if you find like a
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: half run in the first five or something on the
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: run line with Anaheim, I wouldn't hate that, but obviously
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: I would not factor in Anaheim's bullpen because If you're
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: going to be playing Anaheim, the Yankees definitely have the
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. But my play in that game is under.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: He came into your, oh, okay, I get it. So
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: his son plays AAA for the Mets. He came into
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: your work. I get it. He was an awesome high
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: school player. You mean the son or the father? Chris
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: Sale's not winning the Cy Young, man. Mizurowski is almost
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: absolutely going to win it. Like, I don't see how
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: anybody's going to beat him. And there are other guys
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: in the mix, too. Let me see. The Cy Young
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: is also just a bullshit thing. Like, you know what
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: I mean? Like, it's voted on by, you know, whatever, reporters,
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: and I don't even know who does it, but whatever.
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: It's pretty much bullshit, but they do usually give it
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: to a team that's winning. Sale has the second best odds,
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: but Mizzerowski's minus 1,400. He's going to win it, man.
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: And then after Sale, there's Sanchez, who's kind of falling off.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: He's not going to win it. Yamamoto, who I just
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: don't really think is pitched enough to really do it,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: although maybe. And then Burns is 100-1 at this point. Yamamoto, 60-1. No,
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, it helped, but dude, Mizurowski has numbers that
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: we haven't seen in like decades. Like Mizurowski is having
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: like a historic season. Nobody is going to take it
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: away from him. He's minus 1400, dude. Like sale is
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: having a good season, but Mizurowski season is like unheard of.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: Like he's, he's the best pitcher in baseball right now.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: And it's not even actually close. It's insane what he's
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: doing this year. He's not going to lose it. There's
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: just no possible way. even if he has a bad
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: game towards the end of the season or whatever, it's
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: still not going to knock him out of that. Speaking
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: of Cy Young candidates, my last play, you know, the
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: professional bettors are not going to like this one, but
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: I think it's the right spot and the right matchup
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: to do this. We're going to take the Dodgers and
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: lay the one and a half runs here, get it
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: down to minus 108. I don't like doing it. I
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: haven't done it in a while, but we're going to
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: do it here. And yes, I know if the Dodgers
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: are winning, they're not going to bat in the ninth inning.
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: The total is not that high. It's at eight. But
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: I think the Dodgers have the upper hand in every
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: way in this game. They lost the game yesterday, embarrassingly,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: to St. Louis, and everybody's talking about it. 13-8 loss,
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: but I told you what was going on in that game.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: Dodgers return home from a road trip. Both teams, in fact,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: did have to adjust to the Pacific time zone. Oh, wait,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: you didn't hear me yesterday because the stream cut out,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 2: so my apologies. That was my handicap yesterday, though. I
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: said Cardinals first five because I don't like the Cardinals bullpen.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: And they did win the full game and the first five,
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: but the bullpen almost blew it for the Cardinals yesterday.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: So I did get that correct, although I also said under,
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: and that was not even close. Cardinals had McGreevy yesterday
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: against Lauer. That was the thing. Lauer's not that good
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: of a pitcher, man. Even though he's been better for
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, it was a return home spot with a
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: non-elite pitcher on the mound for the Dodgers. It was
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: a spot to fade the Dodgers. But you know what
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: I always say. When a team loses like that in
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: the return home spot, a lot of times they bounce
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: back in the next game. Dodgers are still at least,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: they're playing for something in that they're at least fighting
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: for the number one position in the NL still. And
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: after losing embarrassingly yesterday, I think it's a bounce back
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: spot for the Dodgers here. I think this is a
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: spot where they show up. St. Louis, yeah, ideally they'll
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: show up and, you know, try to win this game, whatever.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're below 500 at this point. I don't
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: think they're going to make the playoffs, but I think
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: it's going to be kind of a letdown spot for
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: for them after that game yesterday. I also don't like St.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: Louis' bullpen. They used four guys yesterday. Dodgers also did.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: None of the better relievers really came in because the
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: game was just crazy out of hand. Dodgers have the
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: better of these two bullpens. They're number 11. They're an
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: okay bullpen.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: St.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: Louis is not particularly good. They're 22nd, so we get
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge with the Dodgers. We get the way
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: better offense with the Dodgers. They're number three right now, though,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: but they're pretty much an elite offense. St. Louis is...
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: Where are they at? 25th. So yeah, St. Louis has
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: been much, much worse.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: St.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 2: Louis also has not decided on a starting pitcher here.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: And if you go five games ago, St. Louis went
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: with a bullpen game five games ago. So whatever St.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: Louis is doing, they might call somebody up, whatever. It's
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 2: not going to change my mind on this. You know
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Whoever St. Louis is pitching here, whether
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: it's a bullpen game, I don't think that's good because
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: their bullpen sucks. A spot starter... Whoever it is, maybe
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: they'll call up some prospect. I still don't think it's
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: going to be good. I think you can just play
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: this game. Play Yamamoto. Pick Yamamoto. Must start for the Dodgers.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: Don't pick a starter for St. Louis. But because Yamamoto
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: is on the mound, the Dodgers should be able to
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 2: get this done. 2.56 ERA,. 89 whip. Really, really low
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: whip here. I know he's not quite as good at home. 3.12
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: home ERA, but he's still good. Opponent batting average is
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: still really low. He's in really good form recently. He's
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start. going
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: all the way back into mid-July here. Good strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: good command here still. He goes deep into outings, and
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: it doesn't even affect him. He's got a low hit
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: rate on the season, low walk rate. Strikeout rate isn't
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: really that high, but it's good enough. He's got a 4.3
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Strikeout rate has actually gone down this year.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 2: He was over 10 the last two years. It's below
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: nine this year, but it's still pretty solid. And he's
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: still having a really good season. And St. Louis has
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: not been able to do much against him. They have
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: five hitters who have faced him, so they're not even
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: that familiar with him. They only have one extra base hit,
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: a double from Burleson, six strikeouts, one walk, 176 average,
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: 458 OPS. So Yamamoto has easily dominated these guys pretty
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: much that have faced him. And other than that, they
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: haven't even seen him. I think it's the right move
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: to make, man. I don't do this often, but it
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: seems like the money is coming in on this side,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: even though it's also a public side. 88% of tickets,
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: 94% of the cash on the Dodgers. Public might be
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: less inclined to do this after what the Dodgers did
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: yesterday and given that the price is crazy at minus
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: 250 but that's why we have to take this down
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: to a minus one and a half run line man
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: and yes it means the Dodgers need to win by
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: two and I know it's a low total here at
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 2: seven and a half eight but the money is coming
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: in on the over and one of the main reasons
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: for the low total is Yamamoto you know what I
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: mean uh so fine like St. Louis we want St.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 2: Louis to not score anything here and the other way
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: you could approach this you could take St. Louis's team
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: total under if you want to just focus on Dodgers
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: probably should win Yamamoto should probably dominate them okay yeah
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: I mean St. Louis team total under makes sense It's tough, though.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: It's really tough because you're going to need them to
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 2: score two or less, probably. And it's risky, right? Like,
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: I think there are more ways that the Dodgers can
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 2: hit on this. Like, say they're winning, you know, five
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: to two late in the game and maybe they give
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: up a run out of their bullpen and they win
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: five to three, something like that. You know, but whatever.
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's a very specific scenario. But, you know,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a realistic scenario, though. All right. That's it, man.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: Those are my plays today. There's nothing else today. So
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: the plays today are over in Seattle and Boston. This
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: is all baseball, even though the money doesn't seem to
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: agree with me, and the total is not really that high,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: but that really, really looks like an over game to me.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: I think that's my favorite of the plays. And then under,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: you know, in the Yankees-Anaheim game, Anaheim's bullpen worries me
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: a bit, but I like it. It looks like an
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: under to me. And then Dodgers, minus one and a
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: half runs. It looks like a good spot to play
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: the better team. motivated spot plus to get the matchup
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 2: bench pretty much everywhere in the game so i like
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: that and like i said if i was going to
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: add in the next play that would be on my
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: boy on my card that almost made it was brewers
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: cubs under i like that one the next best but
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: i don't know if i could stomach david peterson man
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: but i think that game is an under um That's
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: going to do it. Learn to tell on Twitter. Learn
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 2: to tell on Instagram. Like, subscribe here. You'll get notified
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: when I go live with all the football content that's
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: coming up. I've got to talk to Clint. I think
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: we're going to do a bald episode now that I
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: think he's settled in Brooklyn, which is where he is
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: right now for a while, I think, or somewhere in
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: New York, whatever he's doing. He's going to be doing
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: some awesome shows, so go check out his stuff with
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 2: Liberty Lockdown. But yeah, we should be doing an episode
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: of Bald at some point, and I might do one
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: final NFL preview. The NFL, because of the new three-game
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: preseason or whatever, they have like a week off right now,
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: so the NFL doesn't start until next week, although my
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: fantasy draft is tonight. My fantasy draft is usually the
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: Tuesday right before the season starts, but I don't know
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: what my commissioner is doing. He never asked me what
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: days I had available, and there was a chance that
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be available here, but I am, so my
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: main league, Money League, I've been in it for 25
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: years at this point probably something like that maybe more
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: um i was number one in the regular season in
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: that league last year and i i think i took
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: third place last year but i was pissed that i
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: got i got a buy in the playoffs and then
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: the first playoff match i imagine i lost on some
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: like bullshit i'm pretty sure and i just too many
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: of my players got injured i had patrick mahomes and
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: i had um Well, I had like numerous players that
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: were serious players that got injured last year, so I
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: wasn't happy about that, but whatever. It's a new season, man.
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: We do an auction. It gets really crazy. The draft
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: takes a while. I got to be ready for it.
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: That's going to be tonight, so hopefully it goes all
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 2: right for me. The auctions, I'm off on tangency. The
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: auctions feel crazy, though. Like, if you've never done an
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: auction before, like, I have, like, I get, like, spreadsheets up, like,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: how much money am I spending on each position? How
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: much do I think I should spend on every particular player? Like,
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: there are sites that can kind of gauge that, that
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: some are better than others. And then I'm looking at that,
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: and then, like, the first guys that go off the board,
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: they all get overpaid for. So I have, like, nobody
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: on my roster. And, you know, there are, like, maybe
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: 20-something guys that have already been taken, and my roster's empty.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: But then that's how you wind up getting value, too, though,
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: because there are still good players that haven't been put
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: up yet for auction. That and I pissed people off by,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 2: I put up the least value players like first just
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: to piss people off. Like I put kickers up for
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: us to be like, oh, I'll put this kicker up
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: for a buck. And then the worst case scenario is nobody,
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: like if anybody bids more than a dollar on them,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 2: they're over bidding. And that's what I want people to do.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 2: But worst case is nobody bids on that player. And
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: then I have to take that player. And then I
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: can't do that again with a kicker. So I'll do
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: it with a defense next. So I can at least
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 2: do it the first couple of times I get to
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: put somebody up. But yeah, I mean, worst case scenario,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: you'll wind up with that kicker or that defense. So,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: you know what, you know what I mean? Like I'll
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: put up like a kicker that I wouldn't like hate
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: having on my team. You know what I mean? And whatever.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: And I'll try to do that like a few times
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 2: and people get angry about it, but that's, it's a strategy, man.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 2: It's a, it's po it's poking your opponents. You know
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: what I mean? Anyway, uh, well it's, and it is
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: strategic cause you're, you're trying to get every edge that
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: you can. And if, if people overpay even like a
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: couple bucks for a kicker or whatever, it was a
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: useless position basically. Um, yeah, like that's the way to
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 2: do it. All right. Anyway. Um, or the least value position,
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: I should say. Kicker and defense, you should not spend
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 2: more than a buck in an auction on either of them,
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: because I stream defenses anyway, because it's all about the matchups,
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 2: so whatever. And kickers, I basically just... Sometimes I stream them,
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: but once I find a kicker that's hot, that's doing
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: unexpectedly well, a lot of times I just stick with
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: that kicker. Last year, it was the guy on the Patriots.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 2: Somebody had caught him, and I'm like, all right, he's
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: doing well right now. I'll grab him, and I just
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: had him for the rest of the season. Borgalis yeah
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 2: I think I changed my team name to Aurora Borgalis
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: after I had him I like the puns anyway way
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: too many tangents but yeah it's fantasy football season man
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 2: what else did I have to say covered in you
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: because my channel on YouTube you can check that out patreon.com
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: slash learn to tote if you want to support me
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 2: that way loser cast had a new episode last night
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: we last minute got the GNR guys back on and
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: I don't mean slash and Axl Rose you can go
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: check that out the gay and racist podcast. Fun episode.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: Got to hang out with them. And the New York
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: Giants G-Spot podcast. I got to talk to Ben still.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, it should be happening, but we'll see. That's
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 2: going to do it for now. I got to think
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: about possibly additional content for this show, but I don't know, man.
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: It's like, I've been thinking about doing like maybe Patreon only, like,
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: or Patreon slash subscriber only, like live streams or something.
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: And like, like live, like reacting to the games that
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: I plays on whatever, you know, the nights that I
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 2: can do it. If people are interested in that, I
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: don't know. It'd basically be like, be like a hangout
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: and you get to watch my horrible reactions to everything.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: Clint found it amusing when he was over here, when
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 2: I was watching some of my plays, some wins and
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: some losses for me. Anyway, whatever. And college football is
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: back tomorrow. So there's, I think about 10 or 12 games.
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: I think they're not all FBS, FBS, though, and I
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: only do the FBS, FBS ones, but you can bet
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 2: the FBS, FCS ones and the FCS ones. I just
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: don't do it. It's just way too much to handicap,
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: so I just don't do it. College basketball, I do
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: all D1, which is insane and takes a lot, but
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: college football, I only do FBS, but we'll see. I
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'm going to have any plays on
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: that board tomorrow, but college football is back. And I've
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: got to get my contest picks ready as well because
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: that's another thing. I'm going to be in contests for...
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: I'm going to pick five NFL games against the spread.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: I did really well with that last year. I wound
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 2: up in the money in my contest that I was
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: in last year. It was a decent amount. I'm in
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 2: a similar one in college football where you have to
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: pick seven games every week. That one I... Did okay
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 2: in that one last year, but I wound up outside
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 2: of the money, I think. And then there are survivor
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 2: contests as well. I don't think I'm going to do
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 2: a college survivor one this year, though. I think I
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 2: am going to do an NFL one. The college one
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: was just insane, man. It's just too much to take
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 2: care of. I did really well in the college one, though.
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: And then I got screwed on, I think it was
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: that loss to Kentucky. No, it was Auburn losing to Kentucky,
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 2: I think is what it was. That's how I got eliminated.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: It was late in the season, too. I was still
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 2: alive because I was college. Like I was good at.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: It, man.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: Like I could find like, oh yeah, like this team's
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 2: going to be a huge favorite in this week, like
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 2: way down the line, whatever. So I'm not going to
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: use them yet. You know what I mean? Like you
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: got to look at future value. That's how you do.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 2: It's the same thing you do in NFL. It's just college.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: It's a little bit different, but it's the same strategy.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Let's get some wins today.
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: Peace. If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: hold on, not tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: Let me pull you out That bad luck bites hard
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown Hold on.
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: Hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on You're still here now
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: Thank you.