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Inside The Data: The Stoppable Force (Philly) Vs. The Movable Object (Dallas) · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher. And of course, I got Sam Finkel
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: with me. And like we do every week, we're going
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: to preview this Eagles-Cowboys game with the relevant data points.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: And I hope everybody caught our last show, which was
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: probably less of a recap of the Panthers game, right?
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: And more of a state of the Eagles and what
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the data is really showing about their struggles, picking up blitzes,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: how often they're getting blitzes, what they're future looks like
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: without Jalen Hurts in terms of predictive modeling. What else
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: did we discuss there? Oh, their record amount of, or
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: least amount of turnovers for a team that are giveaways
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: for a team that cannot move the ball up and
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: down the field offensively. So it was really a good
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: deep dive into some of the biggest issues surrounding the Eagles.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And Sam, this show will try to guess, parse through
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: whether all that's going to re manifest against the Cowboys,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: a team that has, its own issues and struggles, or
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: if it's just going to be another game for the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Eagles where you're like, I can't believe against that team,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: they couldn't do it. This and that.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: It's a good litmus test for the Eagles, their current state. Yeah. Yeah.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Like what did you, when you were putting this together, what,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: like what jumped out at you about the Cowboys?
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: Historically bad defense.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: And I thought that was last year's problem.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: You would think, you would think, and you would be right,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: but also a, good offense that masks a lot of
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: the defensive issues.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Oh, so these teams are the complete inverse of each
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: other then is what you're telling me.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: That's exactly what I'm saying.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Okay. So when the Eagles offense is on the
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: field against the Dallas Cowboys defense, this is one of those,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: you know, your movable force versus the resistible force versus
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the movable object thing, right?
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Yes. I was about to say your favorite quote. It
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: is here. I mean, I don't think there's been a
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: game that's more of that than this. Like this is,
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: this is it. This is the final boss of it.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: No doubt about it. All right. Well, you made the charts,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: so we might as well take a look and see
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: what they say. And we'll take a look at it
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: right now. As we do, we start off with the
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Monte Carlo simulation and, uh, What does it say about
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: what the Eagles once were in this game and what
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: they are now?
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: So the original modeling had them at a 61.1% chance.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: They won 611 of the 1,000 simulations. Uh-huh. They only
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: won 31.1% in the most current version, which is 311
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: out of the 1,000 simulations. And while I really do
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: like that it's a little bit catchy, that it's exactly
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: 30% change.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: I would have preferred it to be a 30% change
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: in the other direction, preferably.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you would have. That would have been really,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: really like 91 to 0.9% or that would have been
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: a little interesting. Yeah. I think this is even bigger
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: of a net change than last week's.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: It is the biggest net change we've experienced so far.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I have a good memory. I think that was close
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: to 26 or 27%. It was. Yeah.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I think it was like 26.4 or something like that. Yeah.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not looking. I swear. That's pretty good. All right.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So not great, Bob, as the meme says. Yes. Let's
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: look at these teams at a glance.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Sure. I mean, we start with the Cowboys at 25.2
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: points per game, which is 11th in the league, which
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: makes sense with how their offense has been going.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Yes, but I would say underwhelming considering I probably thought
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: they would have been a top five offense going into
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the year.
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: You would have thought for sure.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: But then the Eagles, you know... Unsurprisingly, at 17.7, they're
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: 28th in the league, which is not great.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I'm just shocked that there's four teams that are averaging
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: fewer points than the Eagles are. The Titans got to
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: be one. I know that.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: It's probably the Titans, the Dolphins, the Chargers, and maybe
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: the Buccaneers.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Possibly. I can find that out really quickly,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: but go ahead with the other ones. Yeah.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: And then you look at the point differential, both teams
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: are in the negatives. I mean, they both have a
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: losing record. They're both two and four at this point
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: in the season. The Cowboys are 19th with minus eight.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: The Eagles are 27th with minus 31. In close games,
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys are one and three. The Eagles are two
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: and two. They only got their only two victories out
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: of the two close games and it kind of reflects
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: very much so in that average margin of victory with
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: the Eagles at 3.0, again, post games, which is 29th
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: in the league. And the Cowboys average margin of victory
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: is 10.5, which is 13th in the league.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Got it. By the way, the Browns who are four
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: and two somehow are the, are tied with the Eagles
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: for a fourth there. So amazingly as in terms of
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: fewest points per game.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: Were the Vikings maybe on that list too?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Um, the Vikings are, they, they're not that low, but
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: they're pretty, they're, they're the next, they're 27th.
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Okay. I figured they'd be right around that area. Yep.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Um, so, and interestingly, the Vikings are what five and oh,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: aren't they? Yep. So the Vikings or Browns are absolutely
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: riding their defenses and getting just enough offense while the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: rest of them are getting neither.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Which would have been my guess for how the Eagle
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: season would have gone in a perfect world. I mean, well,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: in a perfect world, it'd be different, but I, If
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: you had to guess at the beginning of the season,
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: I would say they would have been riding the elite
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: defense and doing enough offensively, especially with a new signal
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: caller on offense. But hey, that's not the world. The
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: hand we were dealt, that's not the world we live in.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: The world we live in, both teams have a negative
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: turnover differential. The Cowboys are worse. They've been turning the
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: ball over on offense, and their defense really hasn't been
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: getting the ball back. while the Eagles just had a
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: couple clusters of turnovers, and they're also not generating as
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: many turnovers. But the Cowboys are 27th at minus four.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Eagles are 19th at minus two. And they're very similar
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: in penalties. There's only a two-penalty difference between the two teams.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but the Eagles have– I mean, the Eagles had
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: a penalty play game against the Panthers that dropped them.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: They weren't 22nd like last time we did this. Yeah,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: and they had a truckload. I tell you, the record
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: in close games is interesting to me because– as bad
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: as things have gone for the Eagles are two and two,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: this is by one possession, right?
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Cowboys are one in three. So it kind of signals
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: that if the Eagles can ugly this thing up, like, well,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: they will ugly it up. There's no question about that.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: But you know, unlike the last few games, Jaguars is
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: specifically in Rams. You feel like if they can hang
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: in there with their defense, right. And force this thing
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: to be a close game, they got a, a good,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: a better than average shot of pulling it out because
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys really falter in this area.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah. That's a really good point. And it is going
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: to be an ugly fest between these two NFC East
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: teams that are struggling. I mean, divisional games are ugly
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: usually just in general. So I don't anticipate it being
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: anything different.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Fair enough. Fair enough.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So let's look at these teams when they have the ball.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: When the Eagles have the ball. Yeah.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: So this is your stoppable force versus movable object, what
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: you keep referring to it as because both are– bottom
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: third teams on both sides, right? I mean, again, this
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: is EPA-based, but overall passing efficiency, Eagles are 28th, overall rushing,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: they're 26th, and then pressure rate, they're the worst in
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: the league. And then you look at the Cowboys' defense,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: they're the worst in the league at overall passing efficiency.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: They're tied at 26th for overall rushing efficiency, and their
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: pressure rate's 24th. So, I mean, it's just bad versus
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: bad when the Eagles have the ball. That's really what
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: it boils down to.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I never thought I'd see a day where the Eagles
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: had the worst pressure rate. And this is offense for
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: people who need to understand that. This is the pressure
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: they're allowing in the NFL. I mean, two years removed
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: from having the greatest offensive line play in NFL history.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: And now they can barely run a play without somebody
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: in the backfield. That's hard to believe.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: It is hard to believe. But again, the world we
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: live in and the hand we were dealt.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: What do they say about the NFL stands for not
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: for long, not for long, not for long.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: So let's flip it and talk about when Dallas has
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: the ball and the Eagles are on defense. Yeah.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: So this is where Dallas really shines. Right. And again,
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: it's not as bright as we probably would have guessed
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of the season, just based on who
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: they have on their team. But their 10th overall passing efficiency,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: 16th and rushing and 13th and pressure allow you look
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: at the Eagles unit. And, again, some of these problems
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: come from the fact that the defense is on the
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: field so much. But I don't think it really, you know,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: is explanatory of all. I think the defense has its
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: own struggles. I mean, they're 23rd in pressure rate, which, again,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: contributes specifically to the passing, which is 25th in the league.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: And then the rushing, they've been like an okay run defense.
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: They've been better at the beginning of the year, but
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: they're 21st. Mm-hmm. I mean, the Eagles are all in
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: red and the Cowboys are a little bit of green
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: and yellow combined, which again indicates, you know, okay to
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: good and then bad. Yeah.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You know, again, like it seems like with this category,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: you expected more from both sides, right? You expected the
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Cowboys offense to be better than 16th rushing after the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: year Williams had last year. And then with their overall
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: firepower that they have, you would expect it even better
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: passing efficiency. Top five, not top ten. uh and then
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the eagles going into the year you would have thought
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: would have been among the upper third in past defense
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: efficiency rush defensive efficiency pressure rate for sure and they're
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: not even anywhere near.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: That so also to explain it a little bit um
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: again this is epa based so a lot of it
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: what comes from is the fact that dac has five
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: interceptions right on the season uh which is the it's
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: third mo like it's it's the there's eight seven six
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: obviously that's the herbert has the most at eight but
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: it is tied for seventh in the league uh just
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: with the other people so i think that that is
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: a good explanation for why they're partially why they're not
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: higher in that overall passing efficiency right not the entire thing.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Herbert has eight interceptions. My Lord.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Eight interceptions. Yeah.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah. That is crazy. I mean, you got some pretty
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: significantly good quarterbacks here in the, I mean, Darnold's got seven.
• 11:00
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  Speaker 1: picks run your game. All right. So let's talk about
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the matchup a little more from an advanced data standpoint. Yeah.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: And again, we're going to go with the same format
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: we normally do. We'll start with the Eagles have the ball, right?
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: And the EPA and the DVOA typically are mostly in
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: agreement here that this Eagles offense is bad. There's no
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: way to sugarcoat it. I mean, their EPA per play,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: we spent a lot of time last episode talking about
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: they're at minus 0.21, which is 30th. The DVOA gives
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: them a little bit more credit that has them at
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: minus 13.5%, which is 26th, which just means that, you know,
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: based on the competition that they've played there, they're not
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: as bad, but they're not great.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: They're not top three bad, but they are top eight bad. Yeah.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: That's a great way to put it.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Six bad.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And then the EPA per pass, EPA per rush,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: they're similar again. They're both, from an EPA standpoint, they're
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: 28th in the league. And then from a passing DVOA,
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: they're 24th. And a rushing DVOA, they're 26th. Okay. And
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: then when we compare that to the Cowboys defense, you know,
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: it's also really bad. Their EPA per play and their
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: DVOA are almost in agreement that they're one of the worst,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: if not the worst, defense league. 31st in EPA per
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: play allowed. And 32nd in DVOA. Um, they're particularly bad
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: at past defense. Uh, they're tied for 31st, which means
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: that they're the last in the league, right? If you're
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: tied for 31st, that's what that'll indicate. Uh, and then
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: they're passing TVA. They are the worst. So, I mean,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: their past defense is the worst in the league. Uh,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: they make up for it a little bit in their
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: run defense. Um, They're 22nd in the league from an
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: EPA standpoint, but 27th in DVOA, which DVOA is a
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: little bit better of a statistic because it's contextual. So really,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: really bad defense, really, really bad offense, kind of what
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: we talked about before.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: All right, allow me to say this then, and this
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: is just what the numbers say. As bad as the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Eagles offense is, statistically speaking, it's not as bad as
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys defense is.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a fair thing to say.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Cowboys are 31st or 32nd in one, two, three,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: four of those six things that you mentioned. So the
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Eagles are only below 30 in one of those categories.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: So the Eagles are slightly better offensively than the Cowboys
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: are defensively.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: That is freaking scary.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Movable object, yes.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: There you go. All right, let's flip it.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so when the Cowboys have the ball, right? Let's
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: start with them this time.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: They are eighth in EPA per play and ninth in DVOA. Again,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: EPA per play, a little bit more influenced by explosive plays.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: DVOA is a little bit more consistent, and it's adjusted
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: based on your opponent and situation, but they're pretty much
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: in agreement. They are a top 10 offensive unit. You
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: look at that, the passing DVOA and the rushing DVOA,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: don't say that they are in terms of specifically that,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: but as an offensive unit, which is a very interesting
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: distinction of them being ninth in DVOA, but 14th and
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: 15th respectively in passing and rushing. But the EPA statistic
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: also indicates that they're top 10 as they're tied for
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: ninth in EPA per pass and eighth in EPA per rush. Yeah.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: Is it a little strange that from a DVOA standpoint,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: they would be 14th and 15th in pass and rush,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: but yet per overall difference? their top 10.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So what that indicates is that they're like, usually
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: when you see that it's because one team is really
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: high in one and then like really bad in the other,
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: like they can pass the ball well, but can't run
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: the ball. Well, they're just like, okay enough at both
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: that it kind of just is higher than another team
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: that may be really, really poor at running a really,
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: really poor at passing. That's it's a weird scenario that
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: creates that, but that is how that would transpire. fascinating
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: okay but let's look at the eagles defense i mean
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: epa from epa standpoint they're tied for 23rd but dvoa
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: they're 19th which again try to defer more to the
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: dvoa statistics and then they're 24th and 26th for pass
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: and rush on epa and 21st and 20th in dvoa
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: for passing and rushing respectively so again i mean they're
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: a bottom half team on defense and the on offense.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: And that's a little bit being generous, but they're, they're
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: right at that 10 mark. So the, it goes in
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys favor this matchup. Yeah.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: And similarly in DVO way, their overall ranking is higher
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: than their passing or rushing ranking. Like we talked about
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: with the Cowboys offense. Interesting. All right, let's go to
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: our key takeaways. What's going to happen in this game.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: What do we got to focus on?
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I feel like a chance to get right might be
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: a little optimistic. The Eagles offense is 30th in EPA
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: per play. Again, we really hammered that home at minus 0.21.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: But Dallas' defense is 31st in EPA per play, which
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: is tied for– I think that was the one when
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: they were tied for 31st. So they were– no, that
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: was– I'm sorry. That was EPA per pass that they
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: were tied for 31st. But they're 31st and 32nd in DVOA. So,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, okay, there is a chance that the Eagles offense,
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: like you said, is a little bit less bad. They
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: just have to be a little bit less bad than
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys defense.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: But the second point, Dallas can move the ball, right?
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: They're a top 10 unit. And the Eagles defense is,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: you know, at that bottom half of the league. So
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: that is a big concern with this matchup. And then
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: the last thing is without Hertz, I mean, the likelihood
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: of them winning when, at least in my model that
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: I've built, which again, I don't, I don't know. I
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: might even think they're, I think their win total probably
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: should have been lower, but this game, it might've dropped
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit more than it needed to at 30%.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: But I do think it will favor the Cowboys even
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: without like just taking everything into context. I think the
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: closer the, Maybe a 40-60 split than a 31-69% split.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: But, hey. Oh, boy. Well, I'll tell you what, Sam.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Thanks for doing all that. That was incredible. I'm sort
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: of curious now to see what the Monte Carlo simulation
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: model will predict for the Eagles in terms of chance
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• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, 30% drop against the Cowboys who are not
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: good record standpoint, right? Right. Between four, right?
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Is that what you said?
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, two and four. What happens? I mean, I still
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: don't consider the Giants or Commanders all that good, but
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: then they're going to the bye. What did they come
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: out against? The Steelers, I think. I have to go
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: back through the Eagles record, but I mean, through their.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the Steelers who they come up.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that one, but then the Steelers are so
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Jekyll and Hyde. I can't tell if they're good or not.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Well, I have the model up right now if you
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: want to ask any questions. I mean, it's going to change.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: I run the model.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: No, that's the thing. It's going to change.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: But from this standpoint, if you're curious, I mean, the 49ers,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: that game in week 17, it's 34.6%.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Which is interesting.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Well, how much of the, is that, that's the drop
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: you're saying, or is that the wind percentage?
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: That's what it is, which is interesting that there it's
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: even lower against the Cowboys. But I think a lot
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: of it is because there's, it needs a lot more
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: information at this point. I would think so, but it
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: has the Cowboys as of right now, the Cowboys has
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: the lowest wind percentage on the season. And I, that
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: might just be a feature of the model. This is
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: the first year I ran it. So I'm not going
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: to say it's perfect. I mean, there's definitely adjustments I'm
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: going to make when I run it next year, But
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to stick as close as I can to
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: what I built. And so that's where we're at.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Well, great stuff, man. We'll see if things change for
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the Eagles or if they stay the same. I don't know.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: This game might be either a 0-0 tie or a
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: 30-30 tie, depending on which give and take happens in
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: this game. We'll see. Yes. Awesome stuff, as usual. For
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. Thanks again for watching. You've
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.