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MY FAVORITE PLAY RUINED A PERFECT 12-0 WEEK | Monday Takes on ALCS, NHL, WNBA Finals & NFL · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, I had one of my greatest NFL pick-em weeks
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: against the spread that I've ever had. Getting the first
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: 12 games right, including winning the two plays I gave
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: out on the show during that span.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: The Denver Broncos on Thursday. The Raiders yesterday.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: As the Raiders hung around in that game, they were
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: able to get back within the number at the end,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: thanks to Buffalo's bad defense. When it was looking sketchy,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: because Buffalo kept scoring at the end, Raiders were still
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: able to Keep it within that number with that decent
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Raider offense really led by Kirk Cousins. So I was really,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: really happy about everything up to that point. It was
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: getting crazy. I'm like, holy shit, we could have a
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: perfect week here against the spread. Because, yes, I did
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: wind up picking Carolina in ESPN's game just because they
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: were plus one and a half there instead of minus three.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: So that was my deciding factor there was just the number.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: But I gave you guys the correct lean on every
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: other game here on the show.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: And then what happened?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, Dallas just decides to shit the bed last night.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, multiple turnovers, did not look good. The lucky
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: thing for me is that he was on my opponent's
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: fantasy team, yet my fantasy team with Derrick Henry and
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: company did so bad that I'm still in a position
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: now where I basically need Kittle to get a touchdown
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: tonight to win my matchup. That's what it's going to
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: come down to. I need Kittle to get me like six,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: seven points tonight. Tight ends, you never know, man. He's
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: one of the better tight ends, and it's against a
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: bad defense, so I'm hoping he can do it. If
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: he gets a touchdown, then I'm probably good, so that's what.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping for.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: That's what we're going to need tonight. Yeah, but the Cowboys,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to tell you, man. They fell
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: into too big of a hole. I thought they'd be
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: able to potentially get out of it because, I mean,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the Packers front seven on their defense is— it's decimated
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: dude like I don't know what the Cowboys are doing
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know why they couldn't establish the run or
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: it seemed like they weren't even trying to establish the
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: run even though they were behind they weren't behind by
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: enough that you should just completely abandon the run and
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: the run is how you're going to beat that Packer
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: defense and should open up more things in the passing
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: game and it was all passing from them and they
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: still were just not able to do anything really in
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the game and I, of course, have Williams on my
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: fantasy team, the running back. He did get into the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: end zone once. He had, I think it was the
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: only touchdown they had. Or no, they had two touchdowns. Yeah,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: he had one of the two, but still, yeah, Prescott
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: did actually throw for one. But, yeah, I mean, I
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: don't know what else to say. This is usually the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: rant at the beginning of the show. I usually try
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: to make it more entertaining, more funny. I thought it
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: might be, but I don't know what I'm exactly going
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: to say going into this. I'm just off the cuff here, man.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not happy about it.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: I will say that this.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: the stats in the game were closer than the final indicates.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: At least I'm not saying the Cowboys should have won.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: They shouldn't have.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So yeah, bad, bad play. I thought it was a
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: great situation. Of course that was my favorite play of
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the week. So of course that's the one that winds
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: up losing.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: I win.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I get every other single game right on the entire
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: week in the NFL until that one, my favorite one.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Of course, that's the one that's going to lose.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: And then of course, pending tonight, we'll see what happens
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: with tonight, which I'll talk about on the show.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: We're going to talk about a couple of different things.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: We're going to talk about the ALCS.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Will Tampa Bay close it out and reach the World
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Series here for the first time in quite a while,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I want to say. I think they haven't been there
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: since 2008, right?
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Am I wrong about that? Maybe they made it one
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: other time. Yeah, I might be wrong.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I just remember 2008 because they knocked out the Red Sox,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: and I was not happy about that.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: I'm wearing my Red Sox hat right now, of course. Whatever.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I'm rambling.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: It's time to get into the show. We don't have
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: too many games today.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping the board today, but I will give you
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: my analysis on the games that are happening today coming
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: up shortly.
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby Look
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: at me now.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Not.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: you out That fell up by its heart But it
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: don't get the crown Hold on. Hold on.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: Stay with me now.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: All right. What's up, everybody?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: It's Toad back with you with Toadstool Sports for Monday,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: October 19th. Almost feels like the calm before the storm,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: the NBA starting tomorrow.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: I did an NBA preview show last night. Go check
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: it out. Not getting a lot of views.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Uh, you know, I mean, my analysis is maybe not
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: great in some of these season previews.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: That's a great advertisement for it.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: No, I mean, I talked about where I think the
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: value might lie in the betting market as far as
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: the futures, which with the future bets, you're not necessarily
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: trying to get the bet correct, but you're saying that
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: you think this team is undervalued, and then if they
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: make it a little bit further than people think, then
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you can hedge later on, stuff like that. So, yeah,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: let's get into today. We got the betting board up here.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: We have A few NHL games here. All of them
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: are at night. Anaheim at the New York Rangers. And,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: of course, the landscaping, which had stopped. I hear it
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: again outside. This is going to be irritating me all show, probably.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: The Rangers have kind of cooled off here, man, after
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: a hot start. I didn't think they were as good
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: as that. But, of course, they also lost their goaltender, Shusterkin.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: And now they're starting to falter a little bit. They
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: did lose their last game in Columbus in overtime today.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: Now they're returning home.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: The Rangers are returning home from a road trip technically,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: but it was only a road trip that took them
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: to New Jersey and then Columbus. So really kind of
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: only a single game road trip there to Columbus. So
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to consider this to be a real
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: road trip return spot where I think that a team
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: tends to be in a bad spot, right? When they've
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: been away from home for a while, distractions, things to
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: do at home could pile up and they have to
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: come back into that. It could be a distraction here.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't be too worried about that for the Rangers here.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: They're getting Anaheim here. I think the Rangers should at
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: least be focused here, actually, because they've lost a couple
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: games in a row. Anaheim has lost two games in
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: a row as well. They lost both games on the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: recent homestand, one to the Flames, which is really not good.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: And then when I thought they would bounce back, they
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: lost to the Bruins as well. Now they're starting a
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: road trip, and yes, it's a cross-country trip, but West
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Coast team going east for a night game shouldn't.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: Be a problem. Like biological clock, whatever, should be fine.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: And usually a team is focused to start a road trip,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: especially coming off multiple home losses. Sometimes one of the
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: best things you could do is just leave, just go
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: out on the road, and then you don't have to
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: listen to the media at home. You don't have to
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: deal with home distractions, whatever. You can focus more on
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: the game itself. So it looks like a focused spot
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: for both teams. The money is heavily supporting Anaheim in
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: this game, though. Rangers, again, maybe not as good as
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: their record looks, and Anaheim is probably... I mean, I
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: would say Anaheim might actually be the better of these
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: two teams, although the oddsmakers seem to not really be
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: saying that, with the Rangers being about a minus 140 favorite.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: But the money seems to be suggesting that the professional
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: bettors do seem to think that that line is too
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: high on the Rangers. 67% of the tickets on them,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: 72% of the cash on the Ducks, so the money
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the Ducks.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: I don't have any real reason to disagree with it, so.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Those are my thoughts on that. That's the market read,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: at least. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Colorado at Philadelphia is the next game. Colorado, they just
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: bounced back with a win at home against the Penguins.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Now they're back out on the road here, having to
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: go to the East Coast for this, basically. They have
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: two games here, Philly and New Jersey, back-to-back.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: It's possible they overlook Philly.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, Philly has not played well so far, and
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: New Jersey has at least been a decent team. So
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: if you have two games back-to-back like this, and your
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: team is going to focus more heavily on one than
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the other, yeah, you may see more focus on the
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: New Jersey game out of those two. They're the stronger opponent,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: so maybe that would be the case, or at least
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: they've looked stronger so far. Philadelphia finally won a game,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: by the way. They beat Ottawa in their last game.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So Philadelphia finally with a win.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: That might give them some new momentum, right?
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I talk about when a team hasn't won a game
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: yet and it goes this long into the season without
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: winning a game. It becomes like this mental thing. It
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: becomes a mental hurdle you have to get over. Once
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: you finally get that win, I think you can relax
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit and play looser. But I'm not saying
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: that you're going to not focus on the game.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: I'm saying.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: That you have like your confidence back.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: But you're not over confidence. That can give you. Like
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: you're not playing with like a lot of pressure anymore. Right.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: You can you can just focus and play the game so.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah i mean to me i think maybe the lean
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: is slightly towards philadelphia here uh colorado's really public 86
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: of the tickets although 95 of the cash on them
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: they're minus 230 or so on the money line it
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: went up from minus 218 you can't lay a price
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: like that on the road man Philadelphia, I still think
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: they're probably at least better than their record looks.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: They're going to be overlooked here most likely.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So I think Philadelphia, maybe there's some value there looking
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: at like a puck line on them or something.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: But would I actually want to do it?
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: No.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I don't like any of these hockey games, man, as
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I suggested already at the top of the show. San
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Jose is at Toronto. San Jose is already in that area.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: They just, well, sort of. They just lost to Detroit.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: in a shootout, so they're mid-road.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Trip right now.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: They've gone 1-1 on the road trip so far. They
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: have Montreal tomorrow. So, you know, will they overlook Toronto
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and put more focus on Montreal? Maybe, because Montreal made
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the conference championship last year, conference finals, I mean, in
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the East. Although San Jose is a Western Conference team, obviously,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: so maybe they don't care much. One way or the other,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Toronto versus Montreal. Maybe they will still focus on this game.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Hard to say, actually, which game I think they might
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: put more focus into in this back-to-back, if they're going
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: to put more focus into one than the other. I'd
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: guess it would probably be the Montreal game, though, for Toronto.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: They just lost pretty badly at home to the Islanders.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: They've lost both games on the homestand here. Three losses
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in a row. Losing 4-1 to the Islanders is pretty ugly, man,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: at home. So it looks like more of a bounce
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: back for Toronto. And none of these teams played yesterday,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: by the way, so there's no back-to-back to.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Worry about here. This game I feel a little bit
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: more strongly about than the other two. I would lean
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: to Toronto in this one.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: They have 54% of tickets and cash on them, but
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: there's a reason why they're in minus 140% favorite.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: You can't really read.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Much into the percentages here, but why would Toronto, who's
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: a below 500 team, why would they be favored against
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: a San Jose team that's above 500 if you don't
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: include the overtime loss? And they look fairly good so far. Yeah,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are telling you something. They think Toronto
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: should win this game, so I'll go with that in
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: that game. And then we have Pittsburgh, Utah. Pittsburgh, What
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: did they do last? They lost to the Golden Knights,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: that's right. I keep almost saying Golden State. They lost
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: to Vegas, let's say. Pittsburgh's lost three in a row,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: but the last two were to Colorado and Vegas, and
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: their three losses were all on the road. The loss
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: to Chicago was a win we had on the show
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: here in a bad spot that.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh was in.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I still don't think this Pittsburgh team is that good,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: but their record doesn't suggest that they're that good anymore
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: right now either.
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: They're finishing the road trip here.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: You might get a focus effort out of them because
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: they've lost all of the other games on the road trip,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: so they probably want to get this game if they can.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: But having to go back into elevation to play Utah here,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: not the easiest thing to do. And playing a third
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: game in four days all in different cities, not really
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: that easy to do. So it's not exactly a terrific
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: spot for them, even though they should be motivated. Utah
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: is coming off not a back-to-back, but a home-and-home series,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: let's say, against Edmonton here, where Utah won the game
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: in Edmonton, came back home and lost to Edmonton in
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the most recent game. They kind of got blown out
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in the game, 6-2. Will Utah be set up for
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a bounce back after that? I'm not so sure, because
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: that's a game you definitely get up for. They didn't
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: have it in that second game. Edmonton turned it around,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: and Utah lost a win streak with that, so I
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: think I might lead Pittsburgh in this one, but Yeah,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, I certainly don't love it. The money seems
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: like it is agreeing with it. Utah, 67% of the tickets,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: 60% of the cash on them, minus 180-something is the
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: price on Utah.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: They're a pretty heavy favorite.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: Oddsmakers definitely consider Utah to be the better of these
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: two teams, which I agree with.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: But in this spot, I mean, I don't know, maybe
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: there's some value looking towards Pittsburgh.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You can make it a plus-one puck line or something
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: like that. Again, like I said, I don't have a
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: whole lot on these games today, so WNBA Finals Game 2,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Golden State won Game 1 by 4. It was a
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: very low-scoring game, so my best lean in that game
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: with the under was correct. The game landed in the 130s,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I think, and the total was in the 150s, so
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: extremely low. scoring game there which I thought that would
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: be the case because game one with a ton of
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: time off you kind of expect the offenses to be
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: slow to start plus these teams are both more I
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: think they both focus.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: More on defense than offense really Atlanta.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: And Golden State Golden State got the win there now
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: they're at home but I mean, it might be an
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: opportunity for Atlanta to zigzag this thing because they are
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: still the more experienced of these two teams, even though
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams have pedigree as far as getting
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: this deep into the playoffs. But Atlanta has at least
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: more playoff pedigree on their roster than this new upstart
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Golden State team does. I think Golden State might be
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the better of the two teams, but if you look
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: at what happened in game one, it was a close game.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: And Atlanta actually led for the majority of the game,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: although they never had a huge lead in the game.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: I think the biggest lead was seven, but Atlanta did
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: lead for more than half the game by small margins.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So they played a little bit better than the final
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: score suggests. So I'd probably lean to Atlanta on the
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: side here, but the better way to play this might
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: actually be to take the over. The last game, game one,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: as I said, again, I thought with all that rest,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: like a week off coming into that game, you were
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: going to see offenses that were just completely out of rhythm.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: The defenses having rested would be in their best shape
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: like it would have been it was the best opportunity
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: for an under to happen let's say defense is very
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: well rested now with only one day off i think
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: you're going to see that not really be the case
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: here the defenses are not as rested now uh even
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: though they only played one game i know so it's
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: not like they're completely unrested but still they had to
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: play the other day um you know which takes effort
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and then um as far as uh the um what
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: else where else is like oh the offenses yeah can
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: be back in rhythm now that they uh Yeah, now
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: that they played a game, they got a.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: Game under their belt.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: One thing that I will say before I get completely
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: away from the side talk here, though, is Golden State
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: is now 4-0 against Atlanta this year. So 3-0 in
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the regular season, 1-0 in the postseason. So I don't
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: really want to grab Atlanta here either, but I think
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the preferred approach here is actually to play the over.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Because the first game was so low scoring. It went
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: under the total by 20 points. This total this time
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: has dropped. It was like 153, I think, in the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: first game, or 154. Now it's all the way down
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: to 151.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: And the money is actually playing the over here.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: 67% of tickets on the under, 58% of the cash
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: on the over.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: So the money is backing the over.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: And if you actually look at what happened in that game,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: both teams had really bad shooting performances. So I think
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: you're going to see, that's like the biggest regression point, right?
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Like both teams shot in the low 30s percentage-wise from
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the field. They both had really bad three-point percentages as well.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Golden State also was bad from the free throw line.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: So I think you're going to see some some positive
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: regression there. I think that's the biggest regression point as
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: far as like zigzagging anything that happened in game one.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: I think you should see better shooting in this game
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: than you saw in game one. So I think the over, yeah,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: is the best play in this game, in game two.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: And the money agrees with it. The money actually is
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: indicating towards Golden State though on the side. 62% of tickets,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: 83% of the cash on them. They're a two and
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite, which is I think they were
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: about a two-point favorite in game one, so that line
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't really moved that much from what it was in
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: game one. I would slightly lean the other way there,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: but I think the overs is a better play in
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: that game. Even though, you know me, I'm not really
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: a totals guy, but I think that's my read on it.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: I had the correct read in game one on it,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: so on the total. So that's what I think. Golden
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: State did win the rebound battle in game one by
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: about six. So sometimes that is an indicator that that
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: team is just you know, the better team in the
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: paint and whatever, and that can definitely matter. But we
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: don't want to really overrate that either, and it wasn't
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: a huge rebounding edge. All right, the ALCS as we
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: get to game– wait a minute. Oh, they were having
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: to play two games in a row, even though they
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: were just in Cleveland yesterday. They have to return and
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: play in Tampa Bay. I'm used to them having a
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: day off to travel, but I think because of the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: rain out– I guess they didn't shift any of the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: other games in the series. I'm kind of surprised about that.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: But maybe there's like scheduling conflict if they do that.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, what else happens at the Trop?
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: I have no idea. But it's weird to see no
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: time off.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: They're going from Cleveland yesterday, where Tampa won again, by
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: the way, to take a 3-2 lead in the series.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Tampa won each of the last two games. Now they're
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: flipping back to Tampa Bay here. With Cleveland facing elimination now,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: with no days off for either team. So one thing
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: that we have to look at is the bullpen rest
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: scenario here. I know Rasmussen went pretty deep into the
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: game yesterday.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: Messick didn't.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: So that's probably going to give a little bit of
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: an edge to Tampa's bullpen. They did use their closer yesterday, though, Baker.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: So he threw 14 pitches. I don't know if they'll
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: want to use him again here or not, if they
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: really need to. But Cleveland used their back end of
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: their bullpen, too. Gattis pitched, Smith pitched. They both threw
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: more pitches than Baker did as well. Cleveland basically used
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: all their better relievers, and Messick did not last long
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: in the game. He struggled, man, in his first postseason.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: He has not been that good, so yeah, I think
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the bullpen setup actually does favor Tampa Bay in this one,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: even though Cleveland generally, I think, has the better bullpen.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: After the usage the last couple days, Tampa is in
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: better shape coming into this one. Tampa has announced a
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: starter in this game, and Cleveland has not, so... What
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: is Cleveland going to do here? They're either going to
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: have to use Williams still on short rest because he
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: pitched four days ago. So usually you want the guy
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: to have one other day of rest here. So Williams
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: pitched in game three of the series. So will he
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: actually pitch here in game six? I think if they
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: did have a day off to travel, they might do it,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: but I don't know. It looks like they're undecided right now.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: You might see Williams pitch here. If he does, he
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: might not go that many innings. He is Cleveland's best
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: man for the job here, man. If Cleveland wants to
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: stay alive... Williams would be the guy. But the thing is,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: maybe they're thinking, well, we still need to win both
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: of these games, right? So maybe if we can get
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: to game seven, maybe let Williams pitch game seven.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Because if you're Cleveland, you have to win both games anyway, right?
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: So if you use Williams on short rest here, you know,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: you still have to win game seven.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: And who are you going to pitch in game seven?
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: So maybe they figure, let's just go with, you know,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: some sort of other approach here in this game. hope
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: that we can somehow steal this game, and then we
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: have Williams in game seven. So they might be doing that.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: That is actually kind of my guess is that's probably
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: what they're doing here. So it is undecided for Cleveland here.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: The line is high enough on Tampa Bay here that
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: it makes me think Cleveland is not going to use
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Williams as a starter here because Tampa Bay would be
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: less of a favorite, I think, if they were doing that.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: Freddy Peralta is getting a start for Tampa Bay. This
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: is going to be tough for Cleveland, dude.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Peralta, I know he didn't have the greatest season, mostly
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: because he was bad with the Mets for the majority
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: of the season. 4.42 ERA on the season, 1.33 whip.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: But he was good at home this year, 3.53 home ERA.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: And he's been pretty good with Tampa Bay. Even though
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: he was shaking when they first got him, he really
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: turned it around. He was really good in the month
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: of September. And he's continued pitching well in the playoffs
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: this year. Had a pretty good start, even though it
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: was a little bit shortened against the Yankees. Then his
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: actual start that he had in this series, early in
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: the series against Cleveland, he was really good in that one.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: He shut them out for six innings. He actually did
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: pitch two-thirds of an inning two days ago. He came
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen for some reason. And he walked
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: a guy, but he did not allow any runs or hits.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: But he's pitched well for over a month now. He's
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: been pitching well. So Peralta is in good form here.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: The only issue I would see here really is that
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rate is kind of down in the postseason.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: His walk rate could be a little bit better, but
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Peralta does have some walk issues throughout his career, so
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: his walk rate throughout that span is basically about what
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: you expect from him, so I'm not as concerned about that.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: He has only allowed one run in 11 and third
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: innings in the postseason. He has not allowed any in
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: this series. And Cleveland does not hit him well at all.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: They have 62 at-bats against him. They have a 177
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: average of 449 OPS against him. 16 to 8 strikeout
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. So the only issue really here is the walks.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Usually that's what you're saying with Peralta. That is his
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: one issue. But against Cleveland, he has a high number
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: of walks. But other than that, he usually is pretty good.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: And Peralta is an established pitcher, man. He's pitched in
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: the postseason many times at this point. So he's not going.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: To be intimidated by this. You know what I mean?
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: So Peralta should actually pitch well here.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: So I think what I'll say is if it's Peralta
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: against a bullpen game, Tampa Bay probably is going to
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: be the right side here, and I think they have
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen setup here, like I already said, and
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I think they have the better offense. Cleveland's offense has
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: fallen off again, man, as may be expected because they're.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Not that good.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: What I will say, though, is if Williams does actually pitch,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: even though he's on short rest.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Then I might be saying maybe a first five under
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: might make sense in this game because I think he's good.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: I think both pitchers are kind of established big game
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: pitchers at this point, and they might both pitch well here.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: And I think they both have pretty.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Good matchup numbers. So if it's Peralta Williams, the first
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: five under makes some sense to me. If it's Peralta
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: against a Cleveland bullpen type of.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: Game here, I don't know, man. I think Cleveland....
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Somehow, I think Cleveland just does not find... I think
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: they do not find a way to win that game.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: The money doesn't agree, though. 70% of tickets on Tampa.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Public kind of on them now because the public was
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: on them to start the series. Now that they've won
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: the last two games, they're the public side again. 70%
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: of tickets there, but 73% of the cash on Cleveland
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: despite the undecided pitchers. The professional money seems to be
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: wanting to back Cleveland here. Tampa Bay's... fairly heavily priced
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: at about minus 150. So if you're going to play
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Tampa full game, yeah, the price is a little bit high,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I would say. But still, I mean, it's the playoffs.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you're going to play Tampa full game,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: I still think maybe the money line is the right
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: approach there, even though it is a little bit juicy.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: The total for the game is six and a half.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: It's like bordering on seven, but I don't know if
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: it's going to get to seven. The money has slightly
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: kicked it up a little bit, Um, it looks like
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the over is public, but maybe some money on the
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: over too.
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, you got my thoughts on the total though.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: I think it's only worth playing if it's Williams Peralta
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and then maybe the first five under can make some sense.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: And hopefully, you know, if it's Williams on short rest,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: if you do make that play, hopefully Williams gets you
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: most of the way through the first five innings. Cause
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: I would not want to deal with the bullpens after
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: the usage, especially Cleveland.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: So Those are my thoughts on that game.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Then we have the NFL Monday night game, which you
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: already got my thoughts on the NFL show, but I'll
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: do it again, which is Washington at San Francisco. San
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: Francisco undefeated still. I think they're in a pretty bad
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: spot here, though. San Francisco, they just beat the Seahawks
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: on the road last week. Huge win for San Francisco.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: It was a revenge win. which I think made it
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: matter even more, even though it was already a big
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: divisional game and a win over the returning champs. But
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Seattle ended San Francisco's season last year, and it was
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: an embarrassing loss for San Francisco.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: They had gone into Seattle.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: They got just destroyed in that game, and San Francisco
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: was having to go from Philadelphia. After upsetting them all
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: the way out to Seattle. So it was not really
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: a great spot. Having to make that switch back to
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: the West Coast. I think it might have been a
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: night game too.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: I don't remember.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Seattle destroyed them. San Francisco is definitely better
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: than that. And they showed it in that last game.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: It was a close game statistically. There were mistakes on
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: both sides. But San Francisco got the job done. Big
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: win for them. Even more meaningful because of revenge. And
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: big time physical game too. Like lots of Yeah, just
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: fighting and whatever you want to call it. There were
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: definitely some scrums going on in that game. So I
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: think San Francisco is in a letdown spot after a
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: game like that. They play Atlanta next. I don't know
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: if that's that big of a deal. Atlanta with the
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: loss yesterday. Maybe it looks a little bit less good,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: but at the very least, it's a letdown spot for
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: San Francisco here. Now for Washington, they have Jayden Daniels back,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: and it's his second game back. So I think they
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: should be a little bit better than they were in
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the previous game, because I talk about that when... Your
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback first returns a lot of times is a
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: little bit of like there were some growing pains there again.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: He's got to get back in rhythm again. The team
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: has to get used to him being at the helm
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: again and whatever. And they still probably should have won
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: that game against the Giants. I mean, they blew a
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: two score lead late.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: In that game.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: So, you know, and giants, by the way, JJ McCarthy
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: actually wound up being the, I thought they were going
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: to go with Winston again, McCarthy or was, was Winston
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Winston must've started the game maybe.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: And then they, he was bad and they switched.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe. I don't know exactly what happened in that game.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I know New Orleans still got the job done for me,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: and I did put New Orleans in my pick five entry,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: although no matter which, well, actually, I was going to
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: potentially put Washington in there, so I'm glad I didn't,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: because I already got the win with New Orleans, so
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I went four and one. You know what the one
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: loss was, fucking Cowboys. Anyway, what was I about to say?
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, J.J.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: McCarthy actually looked really good when he was in that game,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: but it's possible that, you know, because it was garbage time,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: maybe the Saints weren't completely focused there, so I'm not
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: ready to You know, anoint J.J.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: McCarthy. I still don't think he's good, but whatever. Washington's
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: coming off that game.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: It was still kind of a big game, though, a
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: big divisional game, so I would hesitate a little bit
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: to want Washington after that, but my biggest hesitation is
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the West Coast travel.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: You know, I talk about it all the time.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: When teams go from the East Coast to the West Coast,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: especially if they're an East Coast team, That's bad.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: Like, it's a biological clock spot.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Having to play late on your biological clock where you're
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: going to be more fatigued and tired late at night.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: You're playing, like, basically until 11 at night, you know,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: your time, whatever. I think that's negative, but it's even
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: worse for Washington, as I pointed out on my show
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the other day, because they were in London two weeks ago.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: They haven't had a bye.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, I think they're just playing straight through. So
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: they were in London against the Colts. Then they had
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: to come back to the East Coast. play the Giants
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: in a divisional game, and now they got to go
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: all the way to the West Coast to play San Francisco.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: So I just can't do it, man.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Even though Washington should get up for this game, and
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: if the travel spot wasn't what it was for Washington, Washington.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Might make the cut for me in this game. Because
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: of the.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Travel, they're not going to, but I'm still going to
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: lean Washington plus the points here, as I already said.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I just think the letdown spot for San Francisco is
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: a big deal here, and they're a very public side.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: And you know, Monday night, the public side, you're not
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: going to get value playing the public side on Monday
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: night because all the recreational bettors are playing this game.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: They're all going to want the undefeated Niners here. That's
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: where their money's going to go. A lot of them
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: trying to make up money because I think the public
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: did pretty bad yesterday. If I went 12-1 on the week,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: you know the public probably did bad yesterday, even though
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I was on a couple of public sides, though, in
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: my pick. I'm like the Steelers and whatever. They want
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: an overtime. But still, yeah, I think the public is
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: going to be on this game, on the 49ers, trying
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: to get their money back here. 70% of the tickets
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: are on San Francisco, and now only 56% of the cash.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: So the market read looks like it's going to be
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: fairly strongly suggesting Washington here. The money's slightly coming in
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: towards the under as well. 51.5 is the total there.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: San Francisco's a 7.5-point favorite. And the over, just like
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: the favorite in these Monday night games, primetime games, the
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: public likes to play the overs as well. So they're
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: going to be coming in on the over in this
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: game as well. And the line has to be jacked
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: up a little bit for that reason too. And it
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: is above that key number of 51 still. I would
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: not want to be on the under in this game.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you that with Washington. Washington is like a
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: really serious over team.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: It's just the way that it is.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: Their offense is pretty good, and their defense is very bad.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: So Washington, they play a lot of overs. You can
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: say the same thing about the Cowboys, and that game
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: did not go over last night.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Not even close.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: That was an even higher total than this one, actually,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: which I was thinking that's a good thing. I was
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: going to get some offensive production out of my fantasy
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: team I have Watson.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: I have Williams.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I wound up having to play Pickens because I didn't
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: want to wait to see if Mike Evans is actually
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: going to play. I'd rather play Evans against this Washington defense,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: but I couldn't wait to find out, so I just...
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: I took the Pickens points last night. I think he
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: got me like 10, which, you know, not great, but
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: it's definitely not awful.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: That's not going to kill you.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: So that was my goal, is just, you know, not
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: risk Evans potentially not playing and just take the points
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that Pickens is going to get you.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: That's what I did in that game yesterday.
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: But.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: In fantasy, I mean, but still, it comes down to,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: like I said, I need Kittle to get a touchdown here.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: He might against this bad defense, so just get me
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: a big game from Kittle and I'm going to win.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: If he gets a touchdown, I'll win, but that's a
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: big if, you know what I mean? Tight ends, they
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: can have stinkers. Kittle has only gone over... I need
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: him to get six or seven points. He's done it
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: three out of the five games, and the three that
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: he has, he's gone way over, but he's gone under
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: that twice in the five games so far, including last week, so...
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: We will see, but Washington's defense is very, very vulnerable,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: so I'm hoping I win in fantasy, but yes, I'm
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: going to lean Washington plus the points here.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I'd probably still lean over in this.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Game on the total, even though it's not really the
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: greatest idea on these primetime games.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: I just don't see it happening. I would not want
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: to be on an under.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Like I said, Washington's defense is extremely vulnerable, and San
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Francisco's got a lot of defensive injuries, and I think
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Bosa might be hurt again. And Greenlaw, I think, actually
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: got suspended. So San Francisco's defense is kind of in
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: trouble right now, and that does help the case for
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: playing the underdog here, playing the Washington side here. I
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: thought there were rumors that Christian Kirk might come back
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: for this game too, but it looks like he's not.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: No, it says they might activate him. We still don't know.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: He's on IR right now. That would help San Francisco's offense.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: That's another indicator towards the over if Kirk does come
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: back here.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: We'll see if Evans is actually in or out.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I think Evans probably will play, though, because I think
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: he's playing with broken ribs or something, but he still
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: played last week, and he had a huge game.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I mean, he's.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: Definitely a warrior out there. But yeah, Bosa's going to
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: be out again, like I said, and Greenlaw suspended. So
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: two of the best players on San Francisco's defense are
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: not going to be there in this game. So that
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: helps the case for both Washington and the over here.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that. No actual plays today.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: That's going to do it. Learn to Toad on Twitter.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Learn to Toad on Instagram. Learn to Toad on TikTok.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: That feels weird to say. TikTok has a lot of
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: rules around it, man, so... You're not allowed to talk
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: about anything. Like I had one video where I was
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: ranting about my percentage and they already gave me a
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: strike for it. One day in on TikTok for, for
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: saying what my percentage, my win percent, my win percentage.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: And I literally have tracked it here on the show
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: this entire time.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: You see me update it day to day. Oh, by
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: the way, I forgot. Uh, hold on. I have to
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: update it today. Don't, I haven't updated it yet. Hold on.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: Let me do that.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Since I am, you know, a man of the people
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: and I am honest, let me do this. Um, The
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: only way that this isn't right is if I've made
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: an honest mistake somewhere, but I think that's right. I
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: updated it for the one-on-one yesterday, so there you go.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: There you go.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: I forgot, dude.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I apologize for not putting the banner up, but there
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: you go. That's my record as we get out of here.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: Like and subscribe to the show here, man. boost it up, comment, etc.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: We're getting some negative comments out there.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: It means we're getting more views at least. So whatever, man.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Bring on the hate. I'm giving you winners on the show.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know why you're hating on me or why
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: you're disagreeing with me when you can see what we
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: have going on here. I'm doing my best to give
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: you winners and I'm doing it for free. So why
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: are you hating on me, man? You don't like the
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: way that I do things? I've done it for 20
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: years and this is what works? You know, you stick
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: to what's worked over a long period of time.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: That's what it is. What else can I say?
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: I just went 12-1 in the NFL against the spread
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: this week as far as every game. Like, if I
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: played every NFL game, I'd be up money, so it's
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: kind of ridiculous. Anyway, yeah, I'm actually better at that,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: at overall. Dude, I was ranked 12th on all of
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: ESPN until the Cowboys game for the season in their
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: spread pick-em game.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: I think they give out.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Weekly prizes too. So if I went undefeated on the week,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I would have been eligible for whatever that weekly prize is.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: I thought I might be able to do it, but nope,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: not going to happen.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Bullshit. Anyway, yeah, I'm rambling. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Check it out, man. Boost all the numbers. Do it everywhere.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: What else we got?
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Covered in uke, my ukulele channel on YouTube. Patreon.com slash
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: learn to toad. You can support me there. There's a
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Spotify Uke feed there. We have Losercast Tuesday.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Nights, and that is it. Skipping the board today.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: We'll be back for the NBA tip-off day tomorrow. And
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: go check out my NBA preview show if you are
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: interested from last night.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: It was nothing great, but, you know, it's just what
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: I do, man.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: We'll have a college basketball preview show coming soon probably, but, again,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I don't follow– Like, the amount of transfers and whatever
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: is just so insane at this point that there's no
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: way I could follow it.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: I would follow Evan Miyakawa, Evan Mia, that guy.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: He does really, really good stuff with that, getting into
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: detail with all that stuff. So I think he's the
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: guy for all that stuff. I'm more the guy for
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: the day-to-day scheduling dynamics type of thing and that type
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: of handicapping and getting winners that way, so... But, you know,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: with college basketball, you can look at the odds and
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: kind of try to determine what those odds are telling you.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm going to try to do if
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: I do a college basketball preview. College basketball, I think,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: starts in like, I don't know, a week and a
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: half maybe. Somewhere in early November, I think.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Maybe two weeks, whatever it is.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Dirty Sock, thanks for hanging out. Was it just you?
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Tower Gang NPC out there? No, he was last night.
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: But shout out to him too. That's it.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Peace.
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold on
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: Let me pull you out That bad luck fights hard
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: Stay with me now Hold on, hold on. You're still
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: here now.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.